The Global Week Ahead

May 11

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar. The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13).

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE. We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend. We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual. The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching. Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections. In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off. Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday.

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

· The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland. The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

· Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987. Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos. The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system. It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

· Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election.

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

· The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

· Mexico Industrial Production (March)

· USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

· El Salvador PPI (April)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate. More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

· South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

· The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

· Philippines General Elections

· India Inflation Rate (April)

· Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

· European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

· EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

· Romania Balance of Trade (March)

· Slovakia Construction Output (March)

· Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

· Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

· The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany.

· The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16. Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

· Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

· Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

· Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14. Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

· The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

· The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

· Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

· Ireland Construction PMI (April)

· Romania Inflation Rate (April)

· Turkey Current Account (March)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

· Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

· Ghana PPI (April)

· Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

· Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

· Japan PPI (April)

· Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

· Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

· India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

· China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

· Germany Inflation Rate (April)

· Romania Industrial Production (March)

· Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

· Spain Inflation Rate (April)

· Romania Current Account (March)

· Serbia Current Account (March)

· Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

· The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the 2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

· Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

· APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

· Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

· France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

· Serbia Building Permits (March)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

· Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

· Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· BARKING SPEAKS

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

· USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

· South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

· Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

· France Unemployment Rate Q1

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

· Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

· Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

· The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Poland Presidential Election

· Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

· Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

· Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead