Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 5/18/25 Francis Kelly 5/18/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Talks and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting Dominate the Week, Trump to Speak to Putin Again on Ukraine Ceasefire, and More Trade Negotiations in Washington This Week

May 18 - 25, 2025

Trade will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week, both in the US and in Europe. First, markets will watch closely as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds a high-stakes summit with EU leaders in London on Monday, focused on improving trade as well as locking in ways to work together on mutual defense development. Ultimately, the talks are a shift back from Brexit and, if successful, will be the third major trade deal locked in by Starmer in a month (the other two being with India and the US).

In the US, senior trade officials from India and Japan will be meeting with senior Trump trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an effort to reach new trade agreements. For the Japanese, this coming week is important for another reason: The US Treasury Department’s Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to present President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent with a new review of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel, a deal blocked by then-President Joe Biden and initially opposed by then-candidate Donald Trump. However, since then, Trump has said he is open to finding a deal for Nippon Steel to own a large–but–not–controlling stake in US Steel.

Sticking with trade for a moment, the other big talks this week come with the visit of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for meetings with President Trump. The primary purpose of the meeting is an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries, which have soured in recent months. But both leaders will discuss trade (trade between the US and South Africa came in at $21 billion in 2024). However, the Trump Administration has vocally condemned South Africa’s land reform policy and efforts to get the International Court of Justice to bring war crime charges against Israel. Last week, a group of white South Africans were granted refugee status in the US by the Trump Administration.

We will be watching closely for the read-out of President Trump’s expected telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Trump, who is reportedly getting frustrated with Putin’s lack of seriousness about moving toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, is expected to press the Russian president to move on a deal. However, Russian officials in Moscow are letting it be known in advance of the call that Putin is going to present a new list of demands to Trump for a cease-fire to be considered – a move that is likely to further frustrate Trump.

Turning to Europe, EU foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Gaza. Specifically, EU trade ties with Israel are being reviewed as there has been a free trade agreement (FTA) in place for more than 25 years that requires Israel to respect “human rights and democratic principles” – something the Netherlands is asking the EU to review due to ongoing military action in Gaza.

Also, there was an important election in Europe this weekend: Romania held a run-off election between centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and right-wing/pro-Russia nationalist George Simion. Simion spoke of ending support for Ukraine and opposing NATO support for Ukraine and for confronting Russian aggression in general. As of late Sunday night, it appears Dan has won a surprise victory.

We will be watching elections this coming week in Venezuela and Suriname. By all appearances, the parliamentary elections being held in Venezuela next Sunday are already rigged to further entrench dictator Nicholas Maduro and his regime in power. Opposition leader Maria Conrina Machado has called for a boycott by voters.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big event is the G& finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Banff, Canada. Trade and tariffs are set to be the primary agenda item. But support for Ukraine will also be up there as a major issue, too.

In terms of major reports this week, markets are anxiously watching for Thursday’s release of global flash PMIs to get a fuller sense of the impact of the Trump tariffs on manufacturing globally.

Also, next week, central banks and central bank governors will be busy. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Tuesday. There are a slew of central bankers giving speeches in the US and elsewhere, and we will be hearing from central bank chiefs at the G7 meetings. The European Central Bank releases minutes from their April meeting, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds their annual financial markets conference Monday through Wednesday, and there will be a number of US regional Fed presidents speaking there, too.

Other major data reports out this week include the UK inflation print, Germany’s Ifo survey, and France’s business confidence index.

In Asia, China releases its April industrial production and retail sales on Monday, while Japan’s trade balance is out on Wednesday, and the national CPI is out on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· House Republicans seek to find agreement tonight on the Reconciliation bill in order to bring it to floor for a vote this coming week before the Memorial Day recess week.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

· Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

· Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23.

· The IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Q1 GDP.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will gather in Banff, Canada, for meetings through Thursday.

· The 78th World Health Assembly begins in Geneva and runs through May 27.

· The BRICS Energy Ministerial Meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the Ukraine War. Putin is expected to deliver a new set of demands to Trump as conditions for a ceasefire.

· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the United States through May 22 for meetings with President Trump. Ramaphosa and Trump are seeking to reset the US-South African relationship as well as negotiate a trade deal.

· US-Japan trade negotiators meet again seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

· US-Indian trade negotiators meet in Washington seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· USA Fed Bostic Speech/ / CB Leading Index (April)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Fed Kashkari Speech

· Colombia Balance of Trade (March)/ Imports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will conduct live-fire drills off the coast of Hong Kong through May 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (April)/ PPI Input & Output Q1

· China House Price Index (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister hosts the UK-EU Summit in London. Britain is hoping to reset a deal with the EU would boost defense and security cooperation, mutual immigration issues, and food regulation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Spain Balance of Trade (March)

· Euro Area CPI Final (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors convenes in Banff, Canada.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (Virtual).

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack give keynotes, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

· USA Redbook (May/17)/ / Fed Collins Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/16)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Computex Taipei, one of the biggest tech events in the world, begins in Taipei.

· China may conduct military drills around Taiwan surrounding the one-year anniversary of President William Lai coming to office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (May)

· Indonesia Current Account Q1/ Loan Growth (April)/ Infrastructure Output (April)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account Q1

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Belgium, EU foreign and defense ministers – the Foreign Affairs Council and Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) – will gather to meet in Brussles to discuss mutual security issues and the status of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Warsaw through May 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Barclays briefing in London.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at The Association for Financial Markets in Europe's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded video interview during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at BPFI National Banking Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

· Germany PPI (April)

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ Central Government Debt (April)

· Euro Area Current Account (March)/ Construction Output (March)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q1/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

· Italy Construction Output (March)/ Current Account (March)

· Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

· Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatar will host the fifth Qatar Economic Forum in Doha through May 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

· South Africa National Budget

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Global

· G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Banff, Canada.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

· The BRICS Trade Ministers meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is expected to issue a new report of their review of Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel. The deal, which was blocked by former U.S. President Joe Biden, had been under review after Trump ordered a reexamination. After the committee's recommendation, Trump has 15 days to make a decision on the deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16)

· Mexico Retail Sales (March)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

· Argentina Economic Activity (March)/ Leading Indicator (April)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Credit Card Spending (April)/ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (May)/ Lending Facility Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 60th meeting of the European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels.

· The 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting begins in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates as a discussant at JEEA-FBBVA Lecture on "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy" in Madrid, Spain.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Price Index (April)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Financial Stability Review/ ECB Lane Speech

· Greece Current Account (March)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

· Slovenia PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump due to hold a gala dinner for the top 220 holders of the Trump meme coin at the Trump National Golf Club just outside Washington in Northern Virginia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

· Mexico Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/17)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/16)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (May)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/21)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Paraguay PPI (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduces the government’s new budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi will give a speech at a meeting of local business leaders in Miyazaki, Japan.

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Machinery Orders (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/17)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ BOJ Noguchi Speech

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels.

· In Spain, the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum opens in Madrid. The two-day event will be hosted by Spanish Senate president Pedro Rollán Ojeda.

· In Belgium, the Brussels Economic Forum will be held. Speakers include Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for economy and productivity and for implementation and simplification; Renault chief Luca de Meo; and Electrolux chief Yannick Fierling.

· The 5th Accession Conference in Albania will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank releases minutes from their last rate-setting meeting.

· European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 6th International Forum Expansión “The future is decided aquí - Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology” in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives the dinner speech at the Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives keynote speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025, titled ‘Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts’, in Vienna.

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)/ BoE Dhingra Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

· France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

· Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will conduct the international Anatolian Phoenix exercise at the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (March)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual)

· Chile PPI (April)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

· Canada Retail Sales (March)

· USA New Home Sales (April)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/23)/ Building Permits Final (April)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Vietnam through May 25.

· In Malaysia, the ruling People's Justice Party leadership elections are set to conclude, with attention focused on the competitive race for the deputy presidency between the incumbent, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and Nurul Izzah Anwar, the prime minister's daughter. The outcome will shape the party's internal dynamics ahead of Malaysia's next general election, which must be held by February 2028..

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (April)

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

· Japan Inflation Rate (April)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Index (March)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

· India Bank Loan Growth (May/09)/ Deposit Growth (May/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

· China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture on "Inflation and disinflation in the euro area" at EMU Lab (European University Institute Florence) in Florence, Italy.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech on "Finanzielle Bildung und Geldpolitik" at the Internationaler Demokratiepreis Bonn e.V. (IDP) "Demokratie lebt vom Mitmachen" event in Bonn, Germany.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

· France Consumer Confidence (May)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/ ECB Schnabel Speech

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador’s newly re-elected President, Daniel Noboa, will be inaugurated.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Quinag visits Indonesia for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held. However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

· Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

· Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/11/25 Francis Kelly 5/11/25

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar. The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13).

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE. We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend. We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual. The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching. Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections. In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off. Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday.

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

· The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland. The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

· Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987. Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos. The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system. It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

· Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election.

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

· The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

· Mexico Industrial Production (March)

· USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

· El Salvador PPI (April)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate. More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

· South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

· The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

· Philippines General Elections

· India Inflation Rate (April)

· Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

· European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

· EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

· Romania Balance of Trade (March)

· Slovakia Construction Output (March)

· Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

· Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

· The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany.

· The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16. Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

· Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

· Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

· Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14. Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

· The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

· The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

· Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

· Ireland Construction PMI (April)

· Romania Inflation Rate (April)

· Turkey Current Account (March)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

· Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

· Ghana PPI (April)

· Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

· Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

· Japan PPI (April)

· Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

· Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

· India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

· China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

· Germany Inflation Rate (April)

· Romania Industrial Production (March)

· Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

· Spain Inflation Rate (April)

· Romania Current Account (March)

· Serbia Current Account (March)

· Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

· The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the 2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

· Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

· APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

· Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

· France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

· Serbia Building Permits (March)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

· Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

· Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· BARKING SPEAKS

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

· USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

· South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

· Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

· France Unemployment Rate Q1

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

· Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

· Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

· The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Poland Presidential Election

· Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

· Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

· Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/9/25 Francis Kelly 5/9/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Votes to Overturn Biden-Era banker Merger Rules As the OCC Streamlines Merger Review Process, Stable Coin Legislation Fails in the Senate, and Will Bowman Be Confirmed This Week?

May 12 - 16, 2025

When it comes to bank regulation and streamlining of financial regulation in Washington, it seems its “everything, everywhere, all at once.” This past week saw the Senate approve a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning a strict Biden-era rule on bank mergers. This came as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced they were streamlining the process for the review of bank mergers.

This came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before the House of Representatives this past week, criticizing his predecessors for losing focus on core risks to the industry.

Back to the Senate for a moment: We note the somewhat chaotic failure of what was considered a likely stablecoin bill as Democrats came out to oppose the legislation over perceived benefits to the Trump family because of their involvement in the crypto industry. The defeat was a stinging defeat for the crypto industry, but we believe the fight is not over and the Senate is likely going to try again to bring it up for a vote in the near future.

The coming week is going to be just as busy on bank merger policy. Most notably, we point to a hearing in the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday entitled “Enhancing Competition: Shaping the Future of Bank Mergers and De Novo Formation.”

We are also watching to see if the Senate holds a final confirmation hearing this week (to be scheduled still) for Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman to become the new Vice Chair for Supervision and Jonathan Gould to be the new Comptroller of the Currency (we will keep you updated as soon as we see any definitive scheduling in the Senate).

There are a number of important meetings and speeches to watch at the SEC and from Fed Governors this week, which we detail below. Here you go! Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Thursday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on Trade in Critical Supply Chains.

House of Representatives

·Wednesday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance holds a hearing entitled “Expanding Choice and Increasing Supply: Housing Innovation in America.”
Wednesday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Economic Growth, Tax, and Capital Access Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Investing in America: How Private Equity Empowers Main Street."
Wednesday, May 14, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions holds a hearing entitled “Enhancing Competition: Shaping the Future of Bank Mergers and De Novo Formation.”
Thursday, May 14, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee holds a hearing on "Financing America's Manufacturing and Industrial Boom."
Thursday, May 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity will hold a hearing entitled “Examining Treasury Market Fragilities and Preventative Solutions.”
Thursday, May 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Oversight Hearing - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Monday, May 12, 10:25 a.m. (Dublin, Ireland) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.
Wednesday, May 14, 5:15 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.
Wednesday, May 14, 9:10 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).
Thursday, May 15, 8:40 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.
Thursday, May 15, 2:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the 2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.
U.S. Treasury Department
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
Monday, May 12, 1:00 – 5:30 p.m. – The SEC holds a Crypto Task Force Roundtable entitled “Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet.”
Thursday, May 15, 11:30 a.m. – SEC Deputy Director of Enforcement Kate Zoladz and several other SEC officials will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum West 2025 Conference in Los Angeles, California.
Thursday, May 15, 1:00 p.m. – The 12th Annual Conference eon Financial Market Regulation, co-hosted by the SEC’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis, Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services, and the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business will be held at the SEC Headquarters.
Thursday, May 15, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
Wednesday, May 14, 3:30 a.m. EST/9:30 a.m. Amsterdam time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak on a panel titled “Economic and Market Outlook” at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association’s Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA
May 13 – 15 – FINRA holds its Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.
National Credit Union Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
Wednesday, May 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration Board of Directors will meet to hear a report on Farm Credit System Funding Conditions.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·Monday – Wednesday, May 12 – 14 – SIFMA holds its Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in Washington, D.C.
May 13 – 14 – The American Bankers Association holds its American Mortgage Conference in Charleston, South Carolina.
Wednesday, May 14 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Information Security and Operational Reliance Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·Monday, May 12, 2:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society holds a virtual fireside chat with Elizabeth Odette, the National Association of Attorney Generals Task Force Chair and Minnesota Assistant Attorney General on the States and Antitrust Policy.
Tuesday, May 13, 11:30 a.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion on "A Conversation with FTC (Federal Trade Commission) Bureau Directors."
Wednesday, May 14, Noon – The Exchequer Club hosts SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda.

Recommended Reading

Wall Street Journal: Fannie and Freddie May Foment Another Crisis
Hoover Institution Fellows John Cochrane and Stanford Professor Amit Suru point out in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that the two government-sponsored enterprises which failed in the 2008-2009 financial crisis are now bigger and riskier than ever. Combined Freddie and Fannie back more than 60% of new mortgages, versus roughly 44% before the 2008 meltdown. They argue there needs to be more market competition and less reliance on government run entities like these two giants.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/9/25 Francis Kelly 5/9/25

The Global Week Ahead

Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day.

As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

It will be a busy week in Europe. At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU. And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate.

In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs.

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs. Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points.

Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week. The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy. In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system. It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular.

In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.

In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.

In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6.

· China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Global

· OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.

· The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

· USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.

· South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha. Financial markets are closed.

· Japan celebrates Children’s Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Singapore Retail Sales (March)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· India Government Budget Value (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.

· In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.

· In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday. Financial markets are closed.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (March)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

· Serbia PPI (April)

· France New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

· Jordan PPI (March)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.

· The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.

· South Korea celebrates Children’s Day. Financial markets are closed.

· Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

· Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

· Thailand Business Confidence (April)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.

· The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.

· The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.

· The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)

· Romania PPI (March)

· France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)

· Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

· Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.

· ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

· Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.

· Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office. Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.

· In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30

· Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Hungary Retail Sales (March)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

· The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

· Chile Inflation Rate (April)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (April)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)

· Canada Financial Stability Report

· Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Argentina Industrial Production (March)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL

· Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.

· Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine. But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.

· The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Romania Retail Sales (March)

· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

· Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)

· Spain Industrial Production (March)

· Greece Balance of Trade (March)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

· Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks. Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.

· Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University. Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California. Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.

· The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.

· US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (March)

· Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

· Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.

· Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

· Turkey Industrial Production (March)

· Italy Industrial Production (March)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

· Greece Inflation Rate (April)

· Ireland Industrial Production (March)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland. The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

· Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987. Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos. The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system. It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

· Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/2/25 Francis Kelly 5/2/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Congress Returns to Work, HFSC Focuses on the Power of Proxy Advisors, Atkins Sworn in as SEC Chair, OCC Agenda Detailed, and Fed Releases Financial Stability Report

April 28 - May 2, 2025

Washington has just finished a frenetic World Bank/IMF Spring meeting week, but won’t be slowing down in the coming week. Congress returns to work after a two-week break and will hunker down and focus on hammering out the massive Reconciliation package. Achieving a successful outcome will not be easy or soon, as House and Senate Republicans continue to battle over basic elements of the tax portion of the bill. We also anticipate new battles emerging as members of Congress seek to restore budget cuts imposed by DOGE.

It appears the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) intends to help with the budget-cut effort by taking funding from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) while also eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), folding its work back into the Securities and Exchange Commission. Of note, all collected fines, aside from money paid to direct victims, will be sent to the Treasury, helping to reduce the deficit. The HFSC will mark up legislation on Wednesday to make all this happen and is expected to pass on a strict party-line vote.

Over in the Senate, we will likely get clarity this week as to when Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould will get his final Senate confirmation vote and when the Senate Banking Committee will vote on the confirmation of Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision.

In advance of Gould’s final vote, Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood will be giving a talk on the OCC’s work and agenda on fintech, debanking, and the agency’s overall regulatory priorities at a conference this week.

Credit union regulation gets a lot of attention this week. Former National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) board members Todd Harper (who was NCUA Chair under President Biden) and Tanya Otsuka announced they have filed suit against President Trump for firing them earlier this month. Harper will be speaking at the Brookings Institution on Thursday about the future of credit union regulation and what he thinks is going to happen at the NCUA.

Looking back at the last week, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the Securities and Exchange Commission’s 34th Chairman. And, as the always excellent Capitol Account pointed out, he was immediately flooded with letters and memos from a host of financial trade groups pleading for regulatory relief and/or offering the new chair advice on all the things he should do (and not do). As Capital Account pointed out, among the many issues raised ranged from enforcement to e-delivery, to corporate governance to all things crypto (side note: Capitol Account is the best daily report on what’s going on with regard to financial services and well worth the subscription. It’s a true must-read).

Finally, we would note that the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report last week. You can find the report HERE. Among the rising risks to overall financial stability cited by the Fed include global trade uncertainty and continued worry about the sustainability of US debt, including a significant rise in concern over the functioning of US Treasury markets. The report also raised concerns over hedge fund leverage, noting that the largest funds are now at historic highs.

Below is all we see happening in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, May 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Examining Insurance Markets and the Role of Mitigation Policies.”

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, April 29, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing entitled “Regulatory Overreach: The Price Tag on American Prosperity.”

· Tuesday, April 29, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exposing the Proxy Advisory Cartel: How ISS & Glass Lewis Influence Markets.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events or speeches scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, May 1, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Thursday, May 1, 9:30 a.m. – The Acting Comptroller of the Currency, Rodney Hood, will discuss the OCC’s work addressing debanking, promoting bank-fintech partnerships, and supporting financial inclusion in a Q&A at the 2025 Innovative Payments Conference in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday, April 30 – Friday, May 2 – The Investment Company Institute holds its annual Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, April 29, 2:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Stuck in Place: How Housing Policies Shape Mobility and Economic Opportunity."

· Thursday, May 1, 9:30 a.m. –Reuters NEXT Newsmakers talks virtually with Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Reuters on "the economic outlook, the proliferation of retail trading and Schwab's growth plans in Texas, exchange-traded funds and cryptocurrencies.”

· Thursday, May 1, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 pm. – The American Conference Institute holds a conference on "Economic Sanctions Enforcement and Compliance."

· Thursday, May 1, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Credit union regulation at a crossroads: A conversation with former NCUA Board Member Todd M. Harper”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 4/28/25 Francis Kelly 4/28/25

The Global Week Ahead

Canada, Australia, and Singapore Hold Elections, Japan and South Korea Talk Trade MOUs in Washington, India-Pakistan Tensions Continue to Rise, BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet, the Bank of Japan Considers Interest Rates Amidst a Small Flood of Global Economic Reports

April 27 - May 4, 2025

Coming off the whirlwind of last week's World Bank/IMF Spring meetings in Washington, the geopolitical/geoeconomic week ahead will be almost as busy. First, Canada, Australia, and Singapore hold elections this week. We are particularly focused on Monday's Canadian elections, which, according to polls, strongly suggest the incumbent Labor Party – only months ago destined for defeat – is poised to make an extraordinary comeback under the leadership of current Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Carney used President Trump's punitive tariffs on illegal immigration and Fentanyl trafficking, along with Trump's antagonistic suggestions that Canada should become the US's 51st state, to rally the Labor Party and the country to keep him in power. The only question now is how large a margin Labor wins.

Sticking with tariffs, there are three important events to watch this week. We expect to see South Korean and Japanese trade negotiators in Washington for further talks and possibly signing Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with the Trump Administration. The question markets are focused on is whether the MOUs effectively suspend US tariffs on both countries and how long that suspension will last. Also, this week, the Trump Administration's tariffs on important auto parts go into effect, which will likely result in increased auto prices.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, the BRICS foreign ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro this week. Top of the agenda will be the Trump tariffs and a discussion on how to accelerate their goal of establishing alternative trade and financial systems. The foreign minister meetings will be followed by a meeting of BRICS national security advisors to discuss how to work more closely on security and intelligence sharing.

Moving to the Middle East, the US is expected to meet with Iranian officials again on April 26 for another round of talks on Iran's nuclear program. That meeting — and all future meetings—will be negotiating highly technical/highly complicated aspects of Iran's uraninium enrichment program, which will likely make the talks much tougher and slower.

We are also watching closely the devolving situation between India and Pakistan. Tensions rose massively following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 people. India shut the border with Pakistan, suspended all visa services for Pakistan nationals, and suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, which is reliant on the sharing of the river water. The two nations have always had, at best, working relations that sporadically nosedives because of events like the one in Kashmir. Considering both countries have large nuclear arsenals, it is never good to see them ramp up tensions.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the coming week will see a number of important economic indicators released in most of the major economies. In the US, there will be no Federal Reserve speeches as the Fed goes into its two-week Blackout Period before its May interest rate meeting. Markets (and the Fed) will look at the April jobs data on Friday, the core March PCE and Q1 GDP on Wednesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report and JOLTS data on Tuesday. In addition, the US Treasury will release its updated borrowing estimates on Monday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday to consider interest rates. Consensus suggests the Bank will hold rates. Japan will also be releasing industrial production numbers and retail sales on Wednesday and consumer confidence survey on Thursday – which will be interesting to see if there is movement in the wake of the Trump tariffs. In China, the April PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index are out on Wednesday – again, likely to be interesting early indicators of the impact of the Trump tariffs.

Moving to Europe, Germany, France, and Italy release CPIs on Wednesday. The Eurozone CPI is out on Friday. Additionally, Q1 GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone are out on Wednesday, too. Consumer confidence reports for Germany and Italy are out on Thursday, as is the European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the week ahead:

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Federal Election

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam through April 29.

· The secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will lead a delegation to China through April 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

· Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 28, 2025

Global

· The BRICS Foreign Ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through April 29.

· The BRICS Heads of ‘space agencies will meet in Brazil.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada holds federal elections. The ruling Liberal Party looks on track to retain power with Prime Minister David Carney staying in the prime minister seat.

· The US Congress returns to work after a two-week recess for the Easter/Passover holidays.

· Trinidad and Tobago elections for their House of Representatives.

· The Cayman Islands hold parliamentary elections as well as vote on a referendum on the decriminalizing of cannabis, funding for new cruise berth infrastructure, and the legalization of gambling in the form of a national lottery.

· Amazon is scheduled to launch the first 27 satellites or tis Project Kuiper, its fast internet network. The network is seeking to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

· Malaysia PPI (March)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (March)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through April 29 in Warsaw, Poland.

· In Brussels, NATO will hold a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of German accession to the military bloc.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank will publish its 2024 Annual Report. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will present the report to the ECON Committee in Brussels.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

· USA Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Redbook (April/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (February)/ House Price Index (February)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/25)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit the Philippines through April 30. He will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss mutual security issues and China’s growing military presence in the region as well as the US tariffs.

· The Indonesia Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Christopher Kent will give a speech at the Bloomberg Conference in Sydney, Australia.

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Export Prices (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ PPI (March)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q1

· Philippines Budget Balance (March)

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and attend the fourth Turkey-Italy intergovernmental summit in Rome, Italy.

· In Poland, 13 EU member states that border the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, begin a two-day summit in Warsaw for the Three Seas Initiative. The Initiative seeks to improve political and commercial relations together among the 13 countries.

· Japan celebrates Showa Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the welcoming speech on "Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives" at the joint BIS, Bank of England, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025 "Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery will give the keynote speech on "What are the ECB’s plans for 2025? What are the regulatory priorities?" at the annual Conference on Banking Supervision organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden will give a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit in London.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

· Hungary PPI (March)/ Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area Loans to Households (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

· Italy Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Sales (February)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

· Great Britain BoE Ramsden Speech

· Greece Total Credit (March)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on Myanmar.

· The National Security Advisors of the BRIC member states will meet in Brasilia, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese trade negotiators will visit the United States for a second round of high-level talks on tariffs.

· Today is the 100th day of the Trump Administration.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/25)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Employment Cost Index Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (April)/ Personal Income & Spending (March)/ PCE Price Index (March)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/25)

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

· Canada GDP (February)

· Chile Copper Production (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Colombia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Japan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Construction Orders (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ PPI (March)

· Australia Inflation Rate Q1/ CPI Q1/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q1/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q1/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence Q1

· Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption & Investment (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Government Budget Value (March)/ M3 Money Supply (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at the Climate Financial Risk Forum in London.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan gives a speech at the 22nd Insurance Conference on Overseeing BPA Growth Safely.

· France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

· Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (April)/ Bavaria CPI (April)/ Brandenburg CPI (April)/ Hesse CPI (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (April)/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)/ Economic Sentiment Index (April)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ECB Montagner Speech

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (April)

· Spain Current Account (February)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)

· Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Russia Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ GDP (March)

· Ukraine Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (March)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Egypt Current Account Q4

· Kenya Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/30)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Peru Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A Chinese ban on foreign missionaries sharing their faith or establishing religious organizations will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Commodity Prices (April)/ PPI Q1

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Bank of Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q1

· Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January, February, & March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is a public holiday – May Day - in most of Europe. Markets are closed.

· In the UK, 24 English local elections will be held as well as six regional mayor races and by-election to decide two member of parliament seats. The elections are seen as bellwether for how the ruling Labor Party is seen by voters and how Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party is faring.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Local Elections/ BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (March)/ M4 Money Supply (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

· France Budget Balance (March)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

Friday, May 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

· USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Exports from China and Hong Kong will lose their qualification for U.S. de minimis duty exemptions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (March)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Jobs/applications ratio (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/26)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Singapore General Elections

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (April)

· Australia General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)

· France New Car Registrations (April)

· Spain New Car Sales (April)

· Italy New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Trump Administration’s 25 percent tariffs on important auto parts go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Australia, federal elections will be held. The ruling Labor Party is expected to lose its small majority in the lower house but retain enough power to form a minority government.

· In Singapore, elections will be held. The ruling People’s Action Party is expected to win again, as they have in every election since 1959.

· South Korea's ruling People Power Party will select its candidate for the June 3 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins a four-day session in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/25/25 Francis Kelly 4/25/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Meets This Week, Watching for the Global Financial Stability Report, the OCC Reorganizes as the CFPB Slashes Remaining Staff, and the FCUA Board Goes to One Member

April 21 - 25, 2025

Although the US Congress remains out of session this week, plenty of regulatory action is happening. The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (WB/IMF) spring meetings are this week. With the meetings comes the publication (Tuesday) of the semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), an assessment of the global financial markets that also identifies potential risks to financial stability. We will be watching to see which market segments are seen as rising risk and how US regulators respond to the report.

Also as part of the WB/IMF week, the G10 and G20, respectively, will be meeting on the sidelines. We will be interested to see what comes out of those meetings in the wake of recent market disruptions caused by the Trump tariff announcements.

Not to be missed amidst all the WB/IMF action this week is acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham's sit-down with Bloomberg on Thursday, during which she will outline the agency's agenda and policy priorities going forward.

Looking at major events last week, bank regulators approved the Capital One acquisition of Discover. That $35 billion deal was announced in February 2024 and has been slowly—very slowly—winding its way through the regulatory review process, all the while facing resistance from some quarters (mostly from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and other consumer advocates who generally oppose large bank consolidation of any sort).

However, what we found particularly interesting about the approval announcement was a separate announcement by the FDIC and Federal Reserve that they fined Discover $150 million and ordered the company to pay $1.225 billion in restitution for misclassifying consumer credit cards as commercial. We have gotten questions about this from clients, mostly asking if this was a case of the "White Knight" – Capital One – being allowed to buy Discover to help clean up the regulatory mess. Yes, we see it that way, but we also see it as a break from previous regulatory merger deals where regulators did not want a White Knight situation because regulators have seen such efforts actually fail. Meaning that the acquiring company, in the massive project to merge operational and risk systems, actually ends up papering over the problem and not really getting to the root of the problem. All of which means, in our view, we are seeing something of a new approach to financial mergers and acquisition policy by the Trump team – and a likely throwing open of the doors to more financial institution mergers going forward.

Also, this past week, the OCC announced a major reorganization around bank supervision, merging its Midsize and Community Bank Supervision Office with its Large Bank Supervision functions and creating a new Bank Supervision and Examination office. All this even before Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould gets his final Senate confirmation vote, which will likely happen in the coming three weeks. Once Gould is in place, we will watch for a potential OCC merger with the FDIC under the guidance of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent has been holding meetings with Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood and FDIC Acting Chair Jonathan McKernan on how to streamline regulation and possibly merge.

The other big news last week was that Acting Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Russ Vought (who is also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget) was laying off more than 1,400 staffers (out of a total of 1,700 staff). That effort was temporarily blocked by a federal judge who wants to review whether the layoffs would violate a preliminary injunction blocking the agency from shutting down.

Finally, last week saw the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) slimmed down to one sitting board member – Chair Kyle Hauptman – after President Trump fired two Democrat board members, Todd Harper (who was chair during the Biden Administration) and Tanya Otsuka. Both Harper and Otsuka intend to challenge the firings in court, but for now, they are out of the building and will not be voting members.

Clients have asked how the NCUA board functions with only one board member. Interestingly, as Chair Hauptman pointed out in a memo to staff last week, there is precedent for this. During the George W. Bush Administration, then-Chair Dennis Dollar acted as the sole board member, voting on policy issues and administrative actions all by himself.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is in recess until April 28.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is in recess until April 28.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting takes place at the IMF in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell will be attending.

· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Tuesday, April 22, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech entitled “Transmission of Monetary Policy” at the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute 2025 Roundtable with Dr. Adriana Kugler, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

· Wednesday, April 23, 9:35 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting takes place at the IMF in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell will be attending.

· Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, April 22, 12:35 p.m. – The SEC will host its Incident Response Forum Masterclass 2025.

· Thursday, April 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will host a Closed Meeting.

· Friday, April 25, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will host its Crypto Task Force Roundtable - Know Your Custodian: Key Considerations for Crypto Custody.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Thursday, April 24, 9:45 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver keynote remarks at the Africa Fintech Summit, Washington, D.C., 2025.

· Thursday, April 24, 10:20 a.m. – Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate on a panel, Balancing Local and Global Priorities in Policymaking (II), at the IIF Future of Global Financial Policymaking Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, April 24, 1:00 p.m. – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will discuss new policies and priorities at a Bloomberg roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, April 24, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson to participate in AI Evolution and the Future of Governance Roundtable at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) in Washington, D.C.

· Friday, April 25, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate on a panel, Clearing the Way to the Future: How Is Technology Changing Market Paradigms? at the FIA Law & Compliance Division Conference in Oxen Hill, Maryland.

· Friday, April 25, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson to address “Clearing the Way to the Future: How Is Technology Changing Market Paradigms?” at the FIA L&C 2025 in Oxen Hill, Maryland.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Tuesday, April 22, 6:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will be the keynote speaker at the IAPP Global Privacy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, April 23 – FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will speak at the Semafor World Economy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Monday – Saturday, April 21 – 25 – The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will be held in Washington, D.C. The full agenda can be seen HERE.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, April 21, 3:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance co-hosts with the World Bank a Digital Trust & Quantum Readiness Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, April 22, 2:00 p.m. – the Institute for International Finance hosts a Cyber Security Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

· Thursday, April 24, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance will host its 2025 IIF Sustainable Finance Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Friday, April 25, 10:00 a.m. – European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch will speak at the Brookings Institution on “Safeguarding the Stability of the Global Banking System.”

Fulcrum Perspectives

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