Recommended Weekend Reads

January 5 - 7, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

US Primaries

• “The Iowa Caucuses, Explained”  The Voting Booth Podcast/American Enterprise Institute

  The Iowa Caucuses, the first-in-the-nation presidential primary vote, are unique. It is not a primary like virtually every other state conducts.  And it is run in a very community way, where people come together – sometimes even as small a group as a gathering in someone’s living room – to choose the candidate they want for the Republican and Democratic nomination – usually by simply scribbling names down on a piece of paper.  But there are even more fascinating nuances to the Iowa Caucus. In this fascinating podcast, Co-hosts John Fortier and Don Palmer are joined by Alan Ostergren, an election law attorney in Iowa, to explain how it all works.

Geoeconomics

• “The Coming AI Economic Revolution”  Michael Spence/James Manyika, Foreign Affairs

  By the beginning of the next decade, the shift to AI could become a leading driver of global prosperity. The prospective gains to the world economy derive from the rapid advances in AI—now further expanded by generative AI, or AI that can create new content, and its potential applications in just about every aspect of human and economic activity. If these innovations can be harnessed, AI could reverse the long-term declines in productivity growth that many advanced economies now face.

• “Artificial Intelligence and the Clustering of Human Capital: the Risks for Europe” European Centre for International Political Economy

  This paper argues that Europe trails the global frontier of productivity growth, and the region’s trend is sluggish.  Much prospective economic growth for Europe is likely to come from AI and its adoption by European firms, which is projected to shoot up the productivity trend.  For such AI-generated growth to work, high levels of human capital need to be available for firms, in particular, Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduates.  However, much of this human capital for AI is leaving Europe and the region experiences a net outflow when it comes to the skills required to make AI work.  Moreover, the spread of both human capital and AI is very uneven within Europe, with some in the West spearheading whilst others in the East are trailing.

  This paper shows that those regions in Europe that successfully have invested in human capital in the past explain more than one-third of AI adoption by their firms a decade later. Furthermore, this persistent trend is driven by the most human capital-intense firms as they explain more than 50 percent of the observed adoption of AI across Europe.  The clustering of human capital is very persistent over time and those that lag in human capital now will weigh down Europe’s ability to generate AI-related growth in the future.  This will likely have long-lasting effects for Europe as a whole, defining its capacity to catch up to the global frontier or amplifying the region’s slow-moving growth and productivity trend.  Policy makers who are serious about creating growth in the future on the back of AI should therefore invest in human capital now, or else Europe will further fall behind.

Russia

• “The Cost of the Ukraine War for Russia”   The Rand Corporation

  In this report, RAND researchers present estimates of what costs Russia is incurring as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. As of September 2022, researchers estimated military costs reached $40 billion. Full-year 2022 gross domestic product losses amounted to between $81 billion and $104 billion and full-year financial capital destruction reached $322 billion. Direct military spending may amount to almost $132 billion through 2024. Over the long term, even with a stalemated war, Russia's economy and the standard of living of its people are likely to decline. The main factor sustaining Russia's economy is the export revenue it earns from oil and gas sales. Despite these significant economic losses, RAND researchers judged these costs to be sustainable for the next several years.

• “A Roadmap to Russia’s 2024 Presidential Election”  Foreign Policy Research Institute

  With four months to go until the presidential elections in Russia, the Kremlin seems to still be firmly holding the reins of political institutions.  It has also sought to reduce its dependence on regional power brokers and officials.  So what can markets expect in the coming months as we approach a historic almost-certain relection of President Putin?

• “Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia – But Some Remain” Yale School of Management

  In this recently updated report, the Yale School of Management details how more than 1,000 companies have publicly announced they were voluntarily curtailing operations in Russia. But not all Western companies have done so.  In this report, Yale gives a school-style letter scale of A-F for completeness of withdrawal.

The Eastern Mediterranean 

• “Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitcal, Security and Energy Dynamics” International Institute for Strategic Studies

  In recent decades, the Eastern Mediterranean basin has emerged as a strategic flashpoint. Historical grievances, regional conflicts, maritime disputes, defense-modernization drives, rivalry over energy resources and export routes, and worsening transnational threats cyclically come to a head to produce geopolitical ripple effects. The vast imbalance of power between the various players, the relevance of Mediterranean energy deposits since Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the renewed interest of major external powers have inflamed dormant fault lines and fuelled active battlefields. No single player, or set of players, appears able to dominate this space. Instead, its mix of powerful and weak states, as well as non-state armed groups of varying strength and ambitions, guarantees constant realignments, brinkmanship, and competition.

Chart of the Week 

China’s Youth Unemployment: The Missing Millions

In August 2023, Beijing’s National Statistics Bureau announced the latest young unemployment figures, which hit a record high of 21.3% percent (June).   This was an increase from 20.8% in May and 20.4% in April.  In the release, the Bureau also announced they would suspend all future releases of youth unemployment.   

Separately, in July, Caixin, one of China’s most prestigious magazines, cited a study from Peking University suggesting the real youth unemployment number could be as high as 46.5% if statistics included 16 million young people who chose not to look for work or who lived with their parents.

So what is the real number?  Whatever it actually is, it is almost assuredly much higher than reported and a true internal political risk for the Xi government.

The Global Week Ahead

December 31, 2023 - January 7, 2024

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

2023 now comes to a close, and we welcome 2024, hoping and praying for peace and prosperity for all. We won’t be writing a retrospective of 2023 - there is plenty of that sort of analysis flying around - and keep our focus on what is ahead. The week ahead will be, overall (at least so far), a quiet week on both the geopolitical and global economic fronts.

Beginning with the geopolitical outlook, all the major international bodies of importance to the markets will see new leadership. On January 1st, Belgium assumed the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, and Russia took the chair of the BRICS as several new members officially joined (although Argentina formally rejected an invitation to join late last week). Italy takes the chair of the G7, Brazil takes the chair of the G20, Laos takes the chair of ASEAN, and (for the next month) France takes the chair of the UN Security Council.

How each of these countries successfully presses their respective geopolitical vision of the world - or not — will be important to markets in 2024. While changes can be seen as incremental, they can also, at times, be massive. And there is little doubt already that Russia will push hard to use the BRICS to drive a wider wedge between the Global South and the West, while Brazil will use the G20 chair as a means to elevate the Global South and Latin America’s role in geopolitics.

Looking regionally, tensions and violence in the Middle East escalated over the last week, not only in Gaza but on the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Red Sea as US and British Naval Forces began efforts to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks (resulting in the sinking of three small Houthi naval craft and more than a dozen Houthi rebels killed). With this in mind, we will be watching on Wednesday when Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gives a broadcast address marking the 4th anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

In Asia, we are watching as Taiwan goes into the final two weeks of presidential campaigning. The country goes into an enforced black-out period on Wednesday on all polls in an effort to prevent disinformation campaigns (mostly coming from China).

Turning to the global economic data calendar, it is a particularly quiet week. There are no central bank speeches of note being given and no central bank meetings (although the US Federal Reserve releases FMOC meeting minutes are released on Wednesday).

What markets will be watching all week is the release of PMIs and other important inflation data from virtually every major market. Also, this week, the US employment numbers on Friday will be an important signal as to how fast and well the Federal Reserve has cooled down the markets and might think of beginning the task of lowering interest rates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, December 31, 2023

 Global

• HAPPY NEW YEAR’S EVE!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

• Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia will take over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy will take over the chair of the G7, Brazil will take over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

• Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

• Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Democratic Republic of Congo will release the results of the December 20th election.  Incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi is expected to be re-elected for a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 1, 2024

Global

• The BRICS officially expands its membership today with the admittance of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.  But Argentina has officially rejected admission.  Additionally, Russia will take over the BRICS presidency from South Africa.

• France takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of January 2024.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress remains out of session this week and returns the following week (The Senate on January 8 and the House of Representatives on January 9).  They face a packed schedule, mostly focused on funding requests for Ukraine and Israel and how to deal with the US southern border issue Republicans are demanding be dealt with as part of a deal on Ukraine funding.  They are also approaching critical deadlines to get the 2024 appropriations bills finalized.

• In the US, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) goes into effect today.  The CTA, enforced by FinCEN, is a new set of tax regulations aimed at exposing the Beneficial Ownership of shell companies to battle corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion.

• Today is Haiti's 220th Independence Day, celebrating the abolition of slavery in the country in 1804.

• The Disney Company’s copyright of the first Mickey Mouse officially ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s first made-in-China luxury cruise ship, the Adora Magic City, sets sail from Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Protests in Serbia are expected to continue and intensify this week over alleged irregularities in the December 17 elections.  Since the elections, a number of opposition politicians have gone on hunger strikes as they allege tens of thousands of “phantom voters” were included in the election.

• Belgium assumes the EU Presidency from Spain until June 2024 (a six-month rotating presidency).   The EU Strategic Agenda 2024 – 2029 will be released in June, and Belgium is now in a strong position to help shape it.  The agenda will drill into six key themes and build a strategy around each.  They include security and defense, resilience and competitiveness, energy, migration, global engagement, and EU enlargement.

• Today is the 25th anniversary of the Euro being launched.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Sudan celebrates Independence Day today, marking when it became independent from Great Britain in 1956. It is a sad day, however, as the country is currently in the midst of violent conflict between warring factions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Balance of Trade (December)

• Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Fiscal Balance (November)

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Singapore S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Commodity Prices (December)

• Singapore GDP (Q4), URA Property Index (Q4)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Spain observes Reconquest Day, commemorating when the country liberated lands captured by the Moors 9n 1492.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December), Loans to Companies (December), Loans to Households (December), M3 Money Supply (November)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Total Credit (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah will give an address to mark the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation (December)

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December) 

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board FOMC Minutes

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Raleigh Chamber Launch 2024, Raleigh, North Carolina.

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December),  JOLTs Job Opening (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 29), API Crude Oil Stock Change (December 29)

• Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)

• Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwan begins an enforced blackout period on all polling in advance of the January 13 presidential elections.  It is expected that Chinese-backed online disinformation will likely surge during this ten-day period.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Business Confidence (December)

• New Zealand Global Dairy Price Trade Price Index (January 2)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December), Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December), Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, junior doctors are expected to commence a six-day strike over pay.  This strike potentially has significant negative implications for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s re-election as the Prime Minister vowed to reduce the wait time for operations that take more than 65 weeks to take place.  Sunak pledged to get the wait time down.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Unemployment (December)

• Spain New Car Sales (December), Unemployment (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

• Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

• Russia Inflation (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

• Qatar Balance o of Trade (November)

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

• Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

• Oman Total Credit (October)

• Bahrain Inflation (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Global

• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (December)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), EIA Natural Gas Stock Change (December 28), EIA Cured Oil Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (December 29), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

• Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• Brazil PPI (November), Banking Lending (November)

• Uruguay Inflation (December)

• Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI December)

• South Korea FX Reserves (December)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (December), Judo Bank Composite PMI (December)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December), Retail Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

• France Inflation (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (December), Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November), Net Lending to Individuals (November)

• Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• Ireland AIB Services PMI (December), Harmonized Inflation (December)

• Romania PPI (November)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade ((November)

• Greece Unemployment (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)

• UAE S&P Global PMI (December)

• Turkey Auto Sales (December), FX Reserves (December 28)

• Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

• Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

• Uganda Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (December)

• Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

Friday, January 5, 2024

 Global

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) releases the latest Food Price Index (December)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum, Linthicum Heights, Maryland.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December), ISM Services PMI December), Factory Orders (November), Banker Hughes Rig Count (January 5), Total Vehicle Sales (December)

• Canada Unemployment (December), Ivey PMI (December)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Industrial Production (November)

• Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

• Colombia Inflation (December), Exports (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

• India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), Fiscal Year GDP Growth (2023-2024), FX Reserves (December 29)

• Singapore Retail Sales (November)

• Philippines Inflation (December), Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)

• Taiwan Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

• Thailand Inflation (December)

• Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

• Germany Retail Sales (November), HCOB Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)

• France HCOB Construction PMI (December)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (December), New Car Sales (December)

• Spain Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

• Poland Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

• Hungary PPI (November), Unemployment (November), Inflation (December)

• Switzerland FX Reserves (December)

• Ukraine FX Reserves (December)

• Greece Construction Output (Q3)

• Serbia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Jordan GDP (Q3)

• Israel Business Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola GDP (Q3)

• Uganda Business Confidence (December), Balance of Trade (December)

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 7, 2024

 Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• CES 2024 (Consumer Technology Association) begins in Las Vegas.  The world’s largest consumer technology trade show will display what is expected to be cutting-edge AI, virtual reality, and other advanced consumer electronics.  Executives from Nvidia, Samsung, and other global tech firms will be present to brief reporters and consumers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Bangladesh holds general elections. 300 members of parliament are up for election, but observers believe the outcome is not in doubt as Sheikh Hasina, who has been in power since 2009, appears to be headed to another large margin of victory.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Russian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

December 29 - 31, 2023

Happy New Year!

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• “The Real Impact of Maduro’s Guyana Referendum”  Americas Quarterly

  Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro consciously decided to produce a diplomatic crisis to advance his political interests at home, using the Essequibo issue to set the stage ahead of next year’s election. Turnout for the opposition primaries in October was unusually high; organized without state help, they attracted 2.3 million voters. The Maduro government may well have decided to organize a referendum on the Essequibo issue to show that it can mobilize more people.  In any event, the Essequibo issue seems perfectly suited for diverting public attention from an economic crisis. It stirs up nationalist sentiment and a narrative of victimhood due to centuries of perceived injustice. Meanwhile, the massive discoveries of oil in the Essequibo add fuel to the fire.

• “Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Increase Unemployment? Evidence from Early State-Level Expirations” R. Glenn Hubbard/Michael Strain, Economic Inquiry

  During the 2021 pandemic year, the generosity of Unemployment Insurance benefits was expanded (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation [FPUC]), and eligibility for benefits was broadened (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance [PUA]). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021. In June 2021, 18 states exited both FPUC and PUA, and three states exited FPUC (but not PUA). Using Current Population Survey data and a wide range of estimation methods, we find that the flow of unemployed workers into employment increased by around two-thirds following early exit among prime-age workers. We also find evidence of reductions in state-level unemployment rates, increases in employment-populations ratios, and reductions in the share of households that had no difficulty meeting expenses.

Indo-Pacific

• “Semiconductors in Key European and Indo-Pacific Economies: Geopolitical Risk in the Supply Chains into 2030 and Beyond”   The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

  What are the core factors that drive semiconductor supply chains amid the current geopolitical climate post-pandemic and into the near future by 2030? Will there be a secure supply, and if so, why or why not? This article analyses the chip supply chain in the context of multiple geopolitical risks, reflecting the industry and government perspectives of countries involved in the supply chain. It looks specifically at the flow of chip supply between the key EU member states and main chip manufacturing economies in East Asia – Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and China – amid the ongoing technological conflict between the U.S. and China. The article looks to the EU Chips Act as the source of demand from the European region, along similar lines of other industrial economies, for ‘self-aggrandizing’ in semiconductor manufacturing capabilities by subsidization. In the short term, it looks to U.S. pressures to impose export controls on production in mainland China as a critical source of supply chain disruption, while the new developments in chip foundry construction are still underway for the next few years. In the mid-to-long term, it points to the potential geopolitical clash on the Taiwan Strait as the main source of uncertainty in the chip supply chain.

• “Timing is Everything: Italy Withdraws from the Belt and Road Initiative” Instituto Affairi Internazioniali

  Italy’s subdued withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative (BR) marked the epilogue of a long, laborious, yet ultimately successful diplomatic process that reflected a reassessment of its bilateral relations with China.  The origins of this reassessment can be traced back to the government led by Mario Draghi between 2021-2022.  The shift reflected the absence of tangible economic benefits from BRI membership for Italy.

• “China’s Export-Reliant Growth Model Threatens Its Trade Relations”   The Diplomat

  China’s latest official figures on the economy confirm two simultaneous truths. First, deflation, lower demand for durable goods, and lower imports persist, even if there has been some consumption rebound. New fiscal stimulus and a strong push for local government bonds to rescue the real estate sector have not impacted new borrowing and investor trust. Moody’s downgrading warning can well justify President Xi Jinping’s reported remark that China’s economic recovery is still “at a critical stage” – and vice versa. Second, there remains policy space to boost the economy. Even officially, China’s currency reserves have risen again, while the true extent of its holdings in foreign-denominated assets is generally underestimated. Official policy has consistently refused monetary expansion on grounds of financial security and because the interest gap with other major currencies has narrowed or disappeared, suggesting there is a risk of hot money outflow. But Xi now talks of an “effective” if stable monetary policy. And exports, after five years of boom, are holding up, even as the Chinese government cites weak international demand as a factor weighing on a sluggish domestic economy.

The Global South & Russia

• “From Russia with Love: How Moscow Courts the Global South”  European Council on Foreign Relations

  Russia’s war on Ukraine has locked Moscow and the West in a contest for global support. Both would like the rest of the world to side with them against the other.  But they are both likely to ultimately realize that the rest of the world is not swayed by narratives but by pragmatic engagement. This type of transactional relationship comes easier to Moscow than it does to the West, as evidenced by Russia’s past outreach efforts.  Since the beginning of the war, though, Russia has become a one-issue country, with all its foreign relationships now subordinate to the war effort.  Russia’s resources to engage with different regional agendas and partners’ needs have shrunk, and it is compensating by doubling down on propaganda. The war forced Moscow to audit its foreign policy priorities and caused policy changes on several files. The West has an opportunity to profit from Russia’s weakened position in this context. But it needs to learn to adapt its normative positions to a more pragmatic approach that focuses on its partners’ – as well as its own – needs.

The Race to Control Critical Minerals 

• “Lithium, the lightest metal on Earth, carries heavy geopolitical weight”   The Interpreter

  “Control oil, and you control nations,” former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said. Today, it could be argued that to control lithium – white oil as it were – is to control nations. Lithium has become a critical mineral in green technologies, with lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles and store wind and solar energy.  Like oil, lithium is not evenly distributed in the world. Nearly 80 percent of known deposits are in four countries – the South American lithium triangle of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, and Australia. However, holding less than 7 percent of the world’s lithium reserves, China is the world’s largest importer, refiner, and consumer of lithium, buying 70 percent of lithium compounds and supplying 70 percent of lithium production, largely to domestic lithium battery makers, six of which are among the top ten in the world.

Global Issues 

• “A Year of War and Little Peace”  Richard Haass, The Strategist

  The former President of the Council on Foreign Relations reviews 2023 and previews the risks he sees in 2024.

Chart of the Week

Contrary to Conventional Thinking, US Defense Spending Has been Shrinking

Contrary to what most Americans may think, US defense spending has been in an almost continuous decline since the end of the Cold War.  The return of geopolitical conflict and tensions suggests the US is now at a key inflection point in terms of increased defense spending in the years to come – or not – all in the face of an exploding federal deficit.

Christmas Day: A New Generation, New Traditions

My grandson, Brendan, brought incredible joy and light into our lives this Christmas. Having a grandchild gives me new perspectives, new hopes, new dreams. I hope you had a beautiful Christmas, too. Here is to a great 2024!

The Global Week Ahead

December 24 - 31, 2023

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Our apologies for getting this note out a bit late - the Christmas rush and family time took precedence. We hope you had a wonderful Christmas Day and are enjoying a quiet week rolling into New Year’s Day. Unfortunately, that will not be happening in Israel or Ukraine as their respective wars continue apace.   Elsewhere in the world this coming week, we will be watching as leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) gather in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss trade and economic integration – all part of efforts by Putin to keep the Russian economy afloat in the face of tightening sanctions.

Also this week, Taiwan’s three presidential candidates will participate in a debate on national television in advance of the elections on January 13.  The latest polls – which are being closely watched by Beijing – show a tightening between Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Lai Ching-te and Nationalist Party (KMT or Kuomintang) Hou Yu-ih.  Lai is leading by less than 4 percent.  The KMT is seen as more accommodating to China.

Finally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will travel later this week to Mexico City for meetings with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in an effort to find a solution to the boom in illegal aliens crossing the US southern border.

Turning to the economic data calendar, it will be a relatively light week.  There is only one major central bank speech  - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazua's speech in Tokyo.  The main economic data releases the markets will watch this week are China's industrial profits and current account figures. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this shortened week:

Sunday, December 24, 2023

Global

• It is Christmas Eve and NORAD (the North American Aerospace Defense Command) will once again be tracking Santa Claus as he flies around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Libya celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1951 when the country gained independence from France and Britain after the U.N. General Assembly voted for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Tunisia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 25, 2023

Global

• It is Christmas Day.  Merry Christmas!

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Federal Government is closed; banks and stock exchanges closed.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Foreign Minister Foreign Minister S Jaishankar is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.  This meeting is taking the place of the usual leaders’ summit between President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi.

• China and five Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam) will hold the 4th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation leaders' meeting via videoconference.  China’s Premier Li Qiang will attend.

• Japan's SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon) craft will enter the moon's orbit ahead of the country's attempt at its first lunar landing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazua gives a speech at a meeting of the Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

• Japan Coincident Index (October), leading Economic Index (October)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• All EU governments closed.  Banks and stock exchanges closed.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow.  He will also attend an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) heads of state seeking ways to tighten trade and economic relations.

• Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union sign free trade agreement in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Ethiopia to make an interest payment on its $1 billion Eurobond.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November), Redbook (December 22), S&P/Case Shiller Home Price (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Unemployment (November)

• Singapore CPI (November), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Boxing Day in the UK and in most Commonwealth nations.  Banks and financial markets are closed.

• Today is Independence Day in Slovenia, celebrating when the country declared its independence in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (October)

• Turkey Business Confidence (December), Capacity Utilization (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will arrive in Mexico to discuss the recent surge in migration with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

• Argentina’s General Labor Confederation (CGT) has called for mass demonstrations in Buenos Aires to protest against President Javier Milei’s reforms.  However, the CGT has not called for nationwide strikes (yet).  

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December), Richmond Fed Services Index (December), Dallas Fed Services Index (December), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 22), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (December 22)

• Brazil Bank Lending (November)

• Argentina Retail Sales (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Japanese sanctions will go into effect on entities in Belarus, the United Arab Emirates, Armenia, and a number of other entities over their role in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (November)

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Housing Starts (November), Construction Orders (November)

• India M3 Money Supply (December 1)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

• Malaysia PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

• Russia GDP (November), Unemployment (November), Business Confidence (December), Corporate Profits (October), Industrial Production (November), Real Wage Growth (October), Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (October), M1 Money Supply (October & November)

• Kuwait Private Bank Lending (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

• Qatar GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (December) 

Thursday, December 28, 2023

Global

• Today is the 50th anniversary of the publication of the “Gulag Archipelago” by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Goods Trade Balance (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 23), Retail Inventories (November), Wholesale Inventories (November), Pending Home Sales (November)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)

• Mexico Unemployment (November)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (December), Net Payrolls (November)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (December), Current Account (Q3)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• South Korea Business Confidence (December), Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Philippines Budget Balance (November)

• Thailand Industrial Production (November), Current Account (November), Private Consumption (November), Private Investment (November), Retail Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Unemployment Benefits Claims (November)

• Spain Retail Sales (November)

• Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals (November)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

• Montenegro Balance of Trade (November), Tourist Arrivals (November)

• North Macedonia Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate (Q3), Private Bank Lending (November), M3 Money Supply (November)

• Bahrain Inflation (November)

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (December 22)

• Jordan Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 29, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago PMI (December)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Unemployment (November)

• Chile Copper Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Colombia Unemployment (November)

• Paraguay Inflation (December), Current Account (Q2)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Costa Rica Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Independence Day in Mongolia, commemorating the day Mongols officially declared their independence from China in 1911.  Mongolia only remained independent for a few years before Chinese forces took back the country, but in 1921, with the help of Soviet troops, regained its independence and, in 1924, established a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q3)

• South Korea CPI (December), Inflation (December)

• India Current Account (Q3), External Debt (Q3), Infrastructure Output (November), Government Budget Value (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 15), Deposit Growth (December 15), FX Reserves (December 22)

• Philippines PPI (November)

• Hong Kong M3 Money Supply (November)

• Singapore Import/Export Prices (November), PPI (November), Bank Lending (November)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (December), GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Inflation (December), Retail Sales (December), Tourist Arrivals (December)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)

• Vietnam FDI (December)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (December), Unemployment (Q4)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain Inflation (December)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Business Confidence (December), PPI (December)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

• Slovenia CPI (December), Inflation (December)

• Hungary Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Current Account (Q3)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Greece PPI (November), Retail Sales (October)

• Ukraine Current Account (November)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing Services & Manufacturing PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Bahrain GDP (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (November), Private Sector Credit (November)

• Uganda Inflation (December)

• Nigeria FX Reserves (December)

• Zambia Balance of Trade (November)

• Kenya GDP (Q3), Inflation (December)

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwan’s three presidential candidates will debate on national television in advance of the January 13 elections.  Polls are indicating the race is tightening considerably.   The Vice-Presidential candidates will debate on January 1.

• The Philippines celebrates Rizal Day, a national holiday. The day commemorates the life and work of Jośe Rizal, a national hero of the Philippines who was executed in 1896 by a Spanish firing squad.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 31, 2023

Global

HAPPY NEW YEAR!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

• Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia takes over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy takes over the chair of the G7, Brazil takes over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

• Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

• Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

December 22 - 24 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

We hope you have a Merry Christmas!

Global Perspectives

• "“Is Geopolitical Risk Getting Worse?”   Peterson Institute for International Economics

  As 2023 draws to an end, major wars are raging in Europe and in the Middle East, between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, there are more active armed conflicts involving sovereign states than ever since World War II. The same can be said of displaced persons. With tensions rising in the South China Sea, geopolitical risk seems higher than at any point in recent memory. Things, as they say, have been better. But are conditions worse, or at least riskier, than ever? The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), developed by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello to assess risk in broader historical perspective, suggests otherwise.

• “Attitudes on an Interconnected World”   Pew Research Center

  How close do people feel to others around the world? How much do they want their countries involved in international affairs? How do people’s experiences with travel and feelings of international connectedness relate to their views about the world? These are among the questions Pew explored in a recent 24-nation survey. We found that while most respondents feel close to people in their countries and their local communities, they are more divided over how close they feel to others across the globe.

United States

• “Other Countries’ Activities During the 2022 Election Cycle”  Office of the Director of National Intelligence

  The US intelligence community observed other countries engaging in efforts to either support or undermine specific US candidates during the 2022 elections.  This NDI report relays how China, Iran,  Russia, and Cuba were the leading agents perpetuating these efforts to undermine American democracy.

European Union/Critical Materials

• “Critical Material: The EU’s and Chile’s New Relation in the Multipolar World”  European Council on Foreign Relations

  The EU’s relationship with Chile is a test case for the EU’s capacity to navigate the emerging “à la carte” multipolar order, in which countries pragmatically choose their partners depending on the issue at hand. Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper and the second largest producer of lithium, a domination that is set to last, given its proven reserves of both metals. From the vantage point of Europe, Chile could provide immense assistance in powering the green transition – literally, by supplying the materials to power the batteries that Europeans are relying on to digitize and electrify their economy. The EU already imports 80 percent of its lithium from Chile – a crucial dependency in the rapidly evolving world economy.

Israel/Gaza War

• “Life in Israel After October 7 in 5 Charts”  Gallup

  Gallup surveyed Israelis between Oct. 17 and Dec. 3, just weeks after Hamas launched its attack on Israel on Oct. 7. As the war between Israel and Hamas continues, here are five key insights into public opinion in Israel.  There were five key takeaways from the survey:

  1.     Israelis no longer support a two-state solution

  2.     Hopes for peace grow further out of reach

  3.     Negative emotions soar after the attack

  4.     Approval of US leadership reaches new high

  5.     Approval of Israel’s leadership remains flat

China

• “Why are so many young Chinese depressed?”   Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  China’s high youth unemployment rate and increasingly disillusioned young people—many of whom are ‘giving up’ on work—have attracted much attention from global media outlets and Chinese policymakers. The standard narrative is to associate the problem with the country’s recent growth slowdown. In fact, the issue goes much deeper. 

  The rise of youth depression has been decades in the making and owes much to China’s rigid education system, past fertility policies, and tight migration restrictions. Chinese youth are burned out from spending their childhood and adolescence engaged in ceaseless, intense study. Attending a good university is seen as necessary for securing a good job, and for rural children, a university degree is the only path to legal residence in cities under the hukou registration system. In a city, the average household annual disposable income is US$6,446, which enables a middle-class lifestyle.

  By contrast, in rural areas, an income averaging only US$2,533 means living in relative poverty.  As if the pressure to get into a university wasn’t bad enough, the rigid structure of the school system makes matters worse. After nine years of compulsory schooling, children must pass an exam to enter an academic high school, and only 50% of them are allowed to pass. Teenagers who don’t make the cut attend vocational high school and are destined for low-paying jobs.

• “Five big uncertainties facing the Chinese economy in 2024” Peterson Institute for International Economics

  The Chinese economy’s rebound started slowly last spring, shaking off the effects of an estimated 1.41 million excess deaths from the pandemic and China’s zero-COVID policies. Today, although growth will likely meet the government’s 5 percent target for 2023, the Chinese economy remains troubled, plagued by flat private investment, flagging consumer confidence, and high youth unemployment. Falling prices and depressed business and consumer confidence are flashing warning signs about the year ahead.  Here are five big uncertainties about Chinese economic performance and the government’s policy responses that will determine whether growth can be sustained in 2024.

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

December 18 - 22, 2023

It is the week before Christmas, and Washington, for the most part, has gone quiet. Congress is scheduled to be out of session (although that is in flux – the Senate is likely to return Monday to vote on a Ukraine/Israel/Border Security bill, but the House of Representatives is gone until January 9). 

The regulators are quiet this coming week. No open meetings, speeches, or other significant events are scheduled for next week. The one event of note next week is over at the Institute for International Finance (IIF), where they will host Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden for a “Talking Policy” series.

This past week, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) released its annual report. You can find it HERE.  The report drilled into several significant issues, including:

• The Banking Sector: FSCOC says “lessons can be learned” from the SVB and other bank collapses earlier this year, but overall, the system is solid (which begs the question: why do you need a new capital increase for the largest banks?)

• Cybersecurity: The report argues that cyber risk is pervasive throughout the economy, and more must be done in all sectors, not just financial.

• Artificial Intelligence (AI): FSOC sees AI as a vulnerability to the overall financial system and urges financial institutions to work hard and fast to ramp up their expertise on the issue. 

• Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Citing the “evolving participation of nonbank financial institutions” in the financial system, FSOC pays particular attention to nonbank mortgage servicers and the rise in private credit as a potential risk to focus on.

• Climate Risk: The report discusses how severe and frequent climate-related events create new risks and significant costs for the public and the economy. FSOC urges state and local governments to improve their dialogue with federal regulators while encouraging regulators to promote better disclosures for investors to understand the risk.

• Digital Assets: FSOC notes “that financial stability vulnerabilities may arise from crypto-asset price volatility, the market’s high use of leverage, the level of interconnectedness within the industry, operational risks, and the risk of runs on crypto-asset platforms and Stablecoins.” The report urges Congress to pass legislation allowing regulators to regulate the sector better.

We will likely take the week of December 25 off, but we will update you if anything changes or any special events/meetings pop up. Below is the (very slim) list of events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions. We hope you have a restful and blessed Christmas!  

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session for the Christmas and New Year holidays.  They return to work on January 8.

House of Representatives

• The House is out of session for the Christmas and New Year holidays.  They return to work on January 9.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• no meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

U.S. Treasury Department

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• December 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

National Credit Union Administration

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

Farm Credit Administration

• No meetings or speeches of note are scheduled for the coming week.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no events of note scheduled for the coming week.

Think Tanks

• December 19, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance (IIF) hosts Sarah Breeden, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, for their Talking Policy Series.

Please let us know if you have any questions or want to be added to our email distribution list.

 Merry Christmas!

The Global Week Ahead

December 17 - 24, 2023

It is a week until Christmas, and the political and financial worlds are relatively quiet this week.  But there are several important events we are keeping our eye on this coming week.

In the US, the Senate will return to work Monday, hoping that negotiations between the White House and Senate Republicans have hammered out a border security deal allowing a vote on aid packages to Ukraine and Israel.  But even if an agreement is reached, the House of Representatives is gone until January 9 and will not make return until then. 

 In Hong Kong, newspaper publisher and democracy advocate Jimmy Liu is on trial for supposedly violating the Beijing-imposed and highly controversial National Security Law, which is seen as crushing free speech.  The trial outcome will likely be seen as an inflection point by markets as to the very future of Hong Kong as a safe place to live and conduct business. 

 Meanwhile, in Taiwan, presidential candidates will hold their first public policy presentations on national television.  This will be the first of three such presentations (the other two are scheduled for December 26 and December 28).   Each candidate is given ten minutes to present their views on a specific topic.  Observers will be watching closely for reactions from Beijing for what the candidates say about Taiwan-China relations.

 In Europe, the EU begins formal negotiations with Ukraine for accession to the Union.  European leaders voted this past Thursday to begin the talks despite the staunch opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. 

 On the global economic radar screen this week, it is a relatively quiet week ahead.  The biggest event of the week is the Bank of Japan meeting to discuss interest rates.  The other big event of the week is the 6th ECB Biennial Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance.  Several central bankers will be speaking at the conference. 

 In the US, markets will be looking at the personal income figures and the PCE inflation figures released on Friday. 

 Finally, a quick scheduling note: We will publish an abbreviated Global Week Ahead next week.

 Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week.  Our best wishes for a joyful Christmas!

Sunday, December 17, 2023

Global

• Today is the 120th anniversary of the first sustained flight by a manned airplane by brothers Wilbur and Orville Wright aboard the "Wright Flyer.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Chile holds a referendum on the latest draft Constitution, the second attempt in two years.  The first attempt was seen as too left-wing by voters and soundly rejected.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit continues in Tokyo and goes through December 18.  The Summit formally began yesterday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Italy’s Brothers of Italy Party holds its annual “Atreju” gathering in Rome. The four-day gathering will bring together conservative leaders from across Italy and abroad: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Elon Musk, and other notable figures are scheduled to attend.

• The United Russia Party (the ruling party in Russia, which holds 72% control of the Russian Duma), holds its 21st Party Congress in Moscow.  President Vladimir Putin will address the meeting.

• Serbia holds snap parliamentary elections. The Serbian Progressive Party is expected to retain its majority in the Parliament, but opposition parties may pull off a surprise win.  President Aleksander Vucic is under pressure from the European Union (EU) and the US to normalize relations with Kosovo, which has refused to recognize its independence since it broke off from Serbia in 2008.  Serbia is a candidate for membership to the EU, but much depends on Serbia settling relations with Kosovo.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 18, 2023

Global

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Treasury is sending two senior officials to the EU to discuss the implementation of the second phase of the price cap on Russian oil.  Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Elizabeth Rosenberg and Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand will meet with government and private sector officials Through December 20. 

• The US Senate is expected to return to Washington (as opposed to being out of session for the Christmas break) to vote on a possible compromise piece of legislation that will provide additional funding to Ukraine, aid to Israel, and new US border security measures. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NAHB Housing Market Index (December)

• Canada New Housing Price Index (November)

• Mexico Aggregate Demand (Q3), Private Spending (Q3)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Hong Kong, the trial of publisher Jimmy Lai begins.  He is charged with violation of the controversial National Security Law for articles he published in his Apple Daily newspaper.  A staunch defender of democracy in Hong Kong, he has been a sharp critic of the Chinese Communist Party.  Markets are watching this trial closely as it is seen as a landmark case that will define the future of living and doing business in Hong Kong.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Q4), Services & Composite NZ PSIs (November)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November), Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU is expected to announce an extension of the trade truce with the US over steel tariffs which were put in place by President Trump.  The extension is expected to run through the US elections in November 2024.

• Finland’s Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen travels to Washington, D.C. to sign the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as part of Finland’s joining NATO.

• The European Union is expected to hold its first formal negotiations with Ukraine on EU membership.  The EU decided this past Thursday to open accession negotiations with Ukraine.  However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vows to continue to oppose Ukrainian membership. However, when EU leaders met this past Thursday to vote on commencing talks with Ukraine, Orban shocked observers by leaving the room so he did not have to vote either way.

• The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Heads of Government Summit takes place in Moscow.  Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will serve as host.  The CIS is comprised of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan travels to Hungary to meet with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and participate in the Hungarian-Turkish Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Budapest.

• EU President von der Leyen travels to Kenya to sign the EU-Kenya Economic Partnership Agreement and holds bilateral meetings with Kenyan President William Ruto.  She then travels to Rwanda to meet with President Paul Kagame and attends the launch of BioNTech Africa.

• The European Environmental Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss reaching an agreement (‘general approach’) on a proposal for a regulation on packaging and packaging waste that will serve as the negotiating mandate to start talks with the European Parliament. 

• German farmers are expected to crowd into Berlin to protest against the newly approved federal budget which includes abolition of tax benefits for agricultural diesel. 

• German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser will travel to Georgia to conclude a new migration agreement to simplify deportations to the Eastern European country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank holds the 6th ECB Biennial Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance through December 19. ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the keynote lecture. Later, ECB Board Member Philip Lane chairs a panel entitled “New policy challenges and reform needs for the EMU.”

• Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gives as speech at the London School of Business.

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (December), IFO Current Conditions (December)

• Spain Balance of Trade (October)

• Poland Inflation (November)

• Belarus GDP (November), Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The results of the Egyptian presidential election are formally announced.  President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is all but assured of being re-elected.

• Today is the 13th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring.  They are seen as beginning in Tunisia in 2010 when a street merchant, Mohamed Bouazizi, self-immolated in protest over the confiscation of his wares and subsequent harassment by corrupt municipal officials.  Bouazizi was subsequently awarded posthumously the Sakharov Price for his contributions to “historic changes in the Arab world.”

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Unemployment (November)

• Jordan PPI (October), Unemployment (Q3)

• Qatar Inflation (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Republic Day in Niger, a national holiday commemorating the creation of the Republic and independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola FX Reserves (November) 

Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Development (FAO) is expected to release its report on the State of Food Systems Worldwide.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In Ecuador, A court holds a hearing for the suspect in the assassination case of former Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio.

• Today is the 25th anniversary of the House of Representatives of President Bill Clinton for his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the U.S. economy, outlook for business, and the Federal Reserve's role before a Harvard Business School Club of Atlanta alumni luncheon.

• US Building Permits (November), Housing Starts (November), Redbook (December 16)

• Canada Inflation (November), CPI (November), Raw Materials (November)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (October), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

• Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

• New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), ANZ Business Confidence (December)

• Hong Kong Unemployment (November)

• Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will visit Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.  Fico is seen as a nationalist-populist who allies himself with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and leans toward supporting Russia in opposing support for Ukraine.

• The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Brussels.  They will seek political agreement on proposals to extend the period of application of three emergency Council regulations, adopted in December 2022, under Article 122 TFEU. The emergency measures were adopted last year following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, in order to enhance solidarity between member states, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and protect EU’s citizens from excessively high energy prices. The emergency regulations need to be extended because of the persisting risks for the EU’s security of gas supply and in order to prevent market volatility and excessively high gas prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2023 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden participates at the International Institute for Finance Talking Policy series in Washington, D.C.

• Eurozone Inflation (November), CPI (November)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

• Slovakia Inflation (November)

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

• Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Deposit Interest Rate (December), Inflation Report

• Bulgaria Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to Bahrain to meet with Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, then he travels to Qatar to meet with Emir Sheikh Tamin, and then travels on to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the Gaza War.  The U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown will accompany him.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US CB Consumer Confidence (December), Existing Home Sales (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 15), Current Account (Q3)

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

• Mexico Retail Sales (October)

• Colombia Imports (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (November), Leading Indicator (November)

• Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwanese presidential candidates will hold their first public policy presentations on national television.  This will be the first of three such presentations (the other two are scheduled for December 26 and December 28).   Each candidate is given ten minutes to present their views on a specific topic. While these are not debates, each candidate can respond or comment on what other candidates say in their ten-minute presentation.  Observers will be watching closely for reactions from Beijing for what the candidates say about Taiwan-China relations.

• After 74 years on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Toshiba will be delisted.  The massive conglomerate is in the midst of being restructured under the leadership of a private equity firm that wants to re-list the company in five years.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

• Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Taiwan Export Orders (November)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (December), Global Dairy Trade Price Index

• Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

• Thailand New Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the 60th anniversary of the opening of the Berlin Wall in West Berlin.  West Germans were allowed one-day visits to see relatives in the East for the holidays. 

• There will be an informal video conference of EU Economy and Finance Ministers.  They are expected to discuss the EU economic governance framework.

• In the UK, junior doctors in England begin another three days of strike action in their ongoing dispute over pay and conditions in the National Health Service (NHS).

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives a  speech followed by Q&A at the seminar "The euro area outlook" organized by ESRI - The Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin, Ireland.  Later, he participate in a policy panel at the Economics Winter Workshop organized by the Central Bank of Ireland.

• Eurozone Current Account (October), New Car Registrations (November), Construction Output (October), Consumer Confidence (December)

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (January), PPI (November)

• UK Inflation (November), PPI (November), Retail Price Index (November)

• Switzerland Current Account (Q3)

• Spain Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November), Industrial Production (November), Employment Growth (November), PPI (November)

• Hungary Unemployment (November),

• Italy Current Account (October)

• Serbia Current Account (October)

• North Macedonia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Russia Consumer Confidence (Q4), PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iraq is scheduled to hold local and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (December), Central Government Debt (November)

• Israel Inflation (December)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

• Oman Inflation (November)

• Qatar M2 Money Supply (November), Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Congo holds presidential and parliamentary elections.  This is a particularly important election for markets as Congo holds 70 percent of the world’s reserves of coltan, a mineral used to make mobile phones.  The country also produces 30 percent of the world’s diamonds and large quantities of cobalt and copper.

• The International Monetary Fund’s executive board is scheduled to meet for the second review of Zambia’s extended credit facility program.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  Later, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).    

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US GDP (Q3), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December), Core PCE Prices (Q3), Corporate Profits (Q3), PCE Prices (Q3), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December), Philly Fed Employment (December), Philly Fed New Orders (December), Retail Consumer Spending (Q3), CB Leading Index (November), Kansas Fed Composite Index (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

• Canada Retail Sales (October), Average Weekly Earnings (October)

• Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (November)

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (December)

• Paraguay PPI (November)

• El Salvador GDP (Q3)

• Argentina Economic Activity (October), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment (Q3)

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea PPI (November)

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending (November)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (November)

• Hong Kong Current Account (Q3), Inflation (November)

• Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melonie holds an end-of-year news conference.

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban holds an end-of-year news conference where he may reveal his plans on how to deal with his ongoing dispute with the EU over supporting Ukraine.  Orban strongly opposes Ukraine’s ascension to the EU.  However, when EU leaders met this past Thursday to vote on commencing talks with Ukraine, Orban shocked observers by leaving the room so he did not have to vote either way.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Business Confidence (December), Business Climate Indicator (December)

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (November), CBI Distributive Trades (December)

• Italy PPI (November), Construction Output (October)

• Hungary Gross Wage (October)

• Greece Current Account (October)

• Poland Retail Sales (November)

• Slovakia PPI (November), Consumer Confidence (December), Unemployment (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing Rate (December), FX Reserves (December 15)

• Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate

• Lebanon Inflation (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is São Tomé Day, commemorating when the first Europeans arrived on the island in 1471 (it was uninhabited).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Botswana GDP (Q3)

• Ghana PPI (November)

Friday, December 22, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

• Today is the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year and the first day of winter in the northern hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Core PCE Price Index (November), Durable Goods Orders (November), Personal Income (November), Personal Spending (November), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), New Home Sales (November), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Building Permits (November)

• Canada GDP (October), Budget Balance (October)

• Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November), Current Account (November), FDI (December 15), FGV Consumer Confidence (December)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (November), Economic Activity (October), Mid-month Inflation (December)

• Chile PPI (November)

• Colombia Business Confidence (November)

• El Salvador Current Account (Q3)

• Paraguay GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation (November), Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Reserve Bank of India Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves (December 15)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Malaysia Inflation (October), Leading Index (October)

• Taiwan Unemployment (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

• Philippines Consumer Confidence (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Albania’s Parliament may meet to vote to approve the migrant asylum agreement structured between Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.  The plan – which would allow the Italian government to build two refugee centers in Northern Albania to process 36,000 migrants.  Italy would fund the centers and the cost of processing.  However, the deal was temporarily blocked by the Albanian Constitutional Court this past Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France PPI (November), Consumer Confidence (December)

• UK GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (November), Current Account (Q3), Business Investment (Q3)

• Spain GDP (Q3)

• Italy Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December), Industrial Sales (October)

• Ireland Wholesale Prices (November),

• Poland Unemployment (November)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (December)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (Q3)

• Kosovo Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)

• Kuwait Inflation (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Zimbabwe celebrates Unity Day, a day celebrating the union of two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, ending a nationwide conflict between the two parties.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola M3 Money Supply (November) 

Saturday, December 23, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Festivus, established on an episode of “Seinfeld” shown on this day in 1997 (hat tip to Frank Costanza (the late, great Jerry Stiller).  Let the Airing of Grievances and the Feats of Strength commence!

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 24, 2023

Global

• It is Christmas Eve. NORAD (the North American Aerospace Defense Command) will once again be tracking Santa Claus as he flies around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Libya celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1951 when the country gained independence from France and Britain after the U.N. General Assembly voted for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Merry Christmas!

Recommended Weekend Reads

December 15 - 17, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• “The Entirely Manufacturing and Dangerous Crisis over the Essequibo”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The authoritarian government of Venezuela held a referendum on December 3, 2023, concerning the Essequibo, a large region controlled by neighboring Guyana but claimed by both nations.  In essence, The Venezuela Regime laid claim to more than half of Guyana. Despite an anemic turnout, Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has claimed that he now has a mandate to annex the region, significantly raising tensions with his smaller neighbor and putting the militaries of both countries on high alert. There is a small but real risk of military conflict between the two South American nations.

The European Union

• “European Elections: A Game-changer in 2024?”   Geopolitical Monitor

  In 2024, the EU will hold a major election, and from it is expected to be a new composition of the European Parliament, a significant change among the existing EU Commissioners, the possibility of a new Commission President, and undoubtedly a new President of the European Council. This political transition will inevitably bring a shift in policies.  The major challenge will be fiscal: Since 2020, the EU has borrowed about €807 billion. Extending foreign policy and influence actions, such as providing aid, and helping conflict zones (Ukraine) and southern European states to manage migration, is expected to require an additional €70 billion in 2024. The EU deficit rules were suspended during the Covid pandemic, which allowed Member States to take whatever they needed to support their economies. In this, the leading borrowers are Italy and Spain. However, we can expect old deficit rules to come back into force in 2024. This will likely impact proposals, with highly indebted countries possibly getting more time to get their affairs in order. It will certainly create tensions between the Member States over who will bear the costs. EU Finance Ministers and leaders are set to make their final decisions on the matter starting next week.  

  
  The Ukraine War

• “How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent Ukraine? Here are Six Charts” the Council on Foreign Relations

  As the U.S. Congress and EU struggle politically to figure out how to further fund Ukraine in her defense against Russian aggression, two questions repeatedly come up: How much has the U.S. and other allies of Ukraine contributed already?  And what is it being spent on?  The Council on Foreign Relations answers the question in six interactive charts.

• “The Most Consequential Acto of Sabotage in Modern Times”  Mark Bowden/The Atlantic

  The famed author of “Blackhawk Down” writes that the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline curtained Europe’s reliance on Russian gas.  But who was responsible?

International Economics/Trade

• “The Comeback of Industrial Policy: The Next Geopolitical Great Game”  Italian Institute for International Political Studies

  The ISPI report details how industrial policies are the key element underlying today’s geopolitical scramble and a pillar of national security. In the global supply chains, highlighted by multiple shocks, the US and the EU have started introducing new industrial legislation to make up for lost ground with respect to other industrial powerhouses, such as China.

• Geopolitical Shocks and Commodity Market Dynamics: New Evidence from the Russian-Ukraine Conflict” Working Paper by Joshua Aizenman, Robert Lindahl, David Stenvall, Gazi Salah Uddin

  Abstract: We investigate the event-based geopolitical shocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected agricultural and energy commodities using daily event-based structural vector autoregression (SVAR).  We find that the geopolitical shock affects the markets of wheat (3%) and European natural gas (12%).  However, substantial heterogeneity is observed among the food and energy markets.  The regional segment of natural gas markets could explain this.  Finally, the dynamics of the impacts of geopolitical news are analyzed in the stock, currency, and bond markets.

China

• “Scared Strait: Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of a Taiwan Crisis”   Center for Strategic and International Affairs

  Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s demonstrations of force against Taiwan since 2022, Western governments and corporate boardrooms have increasingly debated the likelihood, timing, and methods of a possible invasion or blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).  Yet the real economic and financial dimensions of a potential cross-strait conflict remain underemphasized in this policy discourse. All realistic scenarios of PRC aggression will induce fast-moving and unpredictable dynamics, many of which would manifest before the outbreak of hostilities. The Taiwan Strait is central to global maritime trade, and Taiwan is the world’s most advanced and critical semiconductor manufacturing hub. For its own part, China remains an important manufacturing and trade partner for advanced and developing economies. As such, any crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait would impose substantial costs on China, the United States and its allies and partners, and the global economy.   

Chart of the Week 

India Dominated Wikipedia in 2023 

Semafor reported this past week that among the top 10 most-read English-language pages on Wikipedia, six were about Indian events and issues.  ChatGDPT was the #1 most looked-up issue, followed by “Deaths in 2023.”  But after that, India dominated Wikipedia searches.  We would also note Oppenheimer (the man and the movie) both made the top 10, too. 

The Global Week Ahead

December 10 - 17, 2023

It was already going to be a particularly busy week for markets as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all meet to discuss interest rates.  The general market consensus is all three will pause – and may well be done – raising rates.  But as important as this is to markets, geopolitical events this week may steal market participants' attention.  At the top of that list is the make-it-or-break-it moment in the US Congress as to whether a much-needed aid package for Ukraine and Israel is approved. Congress is scheduled to adjourn Thursday for Christmas break and will return on January 9th.

As an indication of how critical the situation is, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to Washington on Tuesday to meet with President Biden and Congressional leaders to make his case for funding.

The impasse is not so much whether Congress should approve further funding for Ukraine but whether they can agree on new US border security provisions. However, a new poll released late Sunday night by the Financial Times may make it even harder to finalize a deal. The poll found that 48 percent of Americans believe the US is spending "too much" on Ukraine, and only 11 percent said it is not spending enough. 

Elsewhere this week, European Union leaders gather for the European Council to consider Ukraine's accession to the EU, how to provide further aid to Ukraine, and discuss growing budgetary challenges in member states (most notably Germany and France). 

In Latin America, Venezuelan. President Nicolas Maduro will meet with Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali to discuss the ongoing tensions between the two countries after Maduro ran a rigged election to claim Guyana's oil and gas deposits.   Maduro has threatened to invade Guyana in the face of growing regional and global criticism for his sudden and oddly timed aggressive demand.  Maduro’s national referendum backfired on him as the vast majority of Venezuelans did not show up to vote. Oil markets are watching this issue closely.

Moving to Asia, we are watching South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to the Netherlands this week.  It is a further indication of how semiconductors and foreign policy are becoming even more intertwined. South Korean wants to establish a “chip alliance” with the Netherlands.  The Dutch chip firm ASML is a major supplier to South Korea’s chip giant Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.  Yoon is going to visit the ASML headquarters in recognition of ASML building a massive new assembly facility in South Korea. This all comes after the Netherlands curbed the sale of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China this past June.  

Moving back to market events and what else is on the economic radar screen this week aside from the Big Three Central Bank Rate Decisions, markets will be watching key US data releases, including the CPI report and retail sales data. They will also be keenly looking at China's release of inflation data and other economic releases later this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Prize Awards Ceremony is held in Stockholm, Sweden.

• The World Health Organization will hold an emergency meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, on health conditions in Gaza.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentine President-elect Javier Milei will be sworn into office.  Meanwhile, the Argentine Union of State Employees (ATE) is expected to conduct a 24-hour strike to protest Milei’s planned fiscal plans.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong holds local District Council elections. Three pro-democracy activists were arrested as voting got underway in a “patriots only” election.

• Sri Lanka's Parliament will discuss a proposal to increase the value-added tax from 15% to 18% in an attempt to meet targets set on the country by the IMF.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 11 to discuss the market situation and to exchange views on the first year of implementation of the CAP strategic plans.  Additionally, the Council is expected to address the new genomic techniques regulation, the sustainable use of pesticides regulation, and the proposals for plant reproductive material and for forest reproductive material. Finally, fisheries ministers will aim to reach a political agreement on the proposal for fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2024 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2025 and 2026, as well as on the proposal concerning fishing opportunities in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea for 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Egypt holds presidential elections. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is widely expected to win re-election.

• The Doha Forum begins in Doha, Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Economic Community of West African States will hold an ordinary summit in Abuja, Nigeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, December 11, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress returns to work, their final week before their schedule to break for the Christmas holiday.  They are expected to focus on finding a way to approve funding for Ukraine and Israel, but ongoing disagreements over funding for US border security will likely make reaching a comprehensive deal unlikely.

• Former President Donald Trump is expected to testify at his fraud trial in New York. Additionally, House Republicans are expected to unveil a bill that would formalize an impeachment inquiry of President Biden.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• El Salvador PPI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet will visit Vietnam through December 12. He is seeking greater trade relations.

• Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may announce the replacement of a number of his cabinet members as he faces a growing backlash over a political fundraising scandal.   He has already fired his Chief Cabinet Secretary and is now reportedly going to move to possibly fire the Economy, Trade, and Industry Minister and others.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q4), Machine Orders (November)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eastern Partnership Foreign Affairs Ministerial meeting takes place in Brussels.  The Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine will gather with EU Foreign Ministers to discuss how the Eastern Partnership can continue to ensure that the needs of member states and partner countries are met, what should be the key priorities of joint work in 2024, how to accelerate the delivery of the Economic and Investment Plan for the Eastern Partnership and how to increase cooperation with regions such as Central Asia and the Western Balkans and synergies with other regional policies such as the Black Sea Synergy. Ministers will aim to solidify their commitment on concrete deliverables for 2024, notably in the area of regional roaming, road safety, and transport.  The meeting will also likely see side-mediated talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over ongoing tensions after recent military action Azerbaijan took to seize land from Armenia.

• Separately, the EU Foreign Affairs Council meets by themselves separately to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as the situation in Israel and the Sahel.

• Estonian President Alar Karis hosts Latvia President Edgars Rinkevics and Lithuania President Gitanas Nauseda in Tallinn, Estonia. They are expected to discuss mutual security and economic issues.

• Donald Tusk, the former European Council President and former Prime Minister of Poland, is expected to be appointed Poland’s Prime Minister again.

• The Salzburg Forum takes place through December 12 in Salzburg, Austria.  The Forum is a Central European security partnership of Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia that cooperates on police, illegal immigration, fighting illegal drug trade, traffic safety, and other areas of internal security. Interior Ministers of these country are expected to discuss extending Schengen rules for air travel among their borders.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to discuss the upcoming European Council meeting and is expected  hold a joint press conference in Berlin, Germany.  Rutte is seeking to be named the next NATO Secretary General.

• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak all-day evidence session at the COVID-19 inquiry.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled "Greek Banking Sector – Growth & Development Outlook" at the 25th Annual Capital Link "Invest in Greece Forum" organized by Capital Link in New York.

• Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

• Romania Balance of Trade (October)

• Ukraine GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Inflation (November)

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

• Turkey Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Participation Rate (October), Unemployment (October)

• Israel Budget Balance (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Republic Day in Burkina Faso, celebrating the nation’s independence in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to debate the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the 1591 Committee and on Haiti sanctions, and there will be consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

• The UN will host the Somalia Security Conference. The aim of this event is to bring together key representatives from the Federal Government of Somalia, international partners from 26 countries, the European Union, the African Union, the League of Arab States, and the United Nations to facilitate discussions and collaborative efforts to address the needs and challenges of the Somali security sector.

• The International Energy Agency releases its monthly Oil Statistics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.   Zelensky will also meet with Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (D-LA) and other senior House leaders, as well as with senior Senate members.  The meeting comes at a critical time as Congress is at an impasse on finalizing an aid package for Ukraine and Israel.

• n US Federal Court, former Venezuelan military intelligence director Hugo Carvajal appears for a procedural hearing ahead of a forthcoming trial on drug-trafficking charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation (November), CPI (November), Redbook (December 9), Monthly Budget Statement (November), NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)

• Mexico Industrial Production (October)

• Brazil Inflation (November), Business Confidence (December)

• Colombia Balance of Trade (October)

• Uruguay Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Vietnam through December 13.  Xi is making the rare foreign trip to discuss trade and economic issues in general.  But he also wants to discuss a rail cargo project in Northern Vietnam that will be part of China’s Belt & Road Initiative.  Xi and Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu will also discuss trade in rare earth minerals.  Vietnam ranks second globally after China for despots of rare earth metals.

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will visit the Netherlands through December 13.  South Korea wants to establish a “chip alliance” with the Netherlands.  The Dutch chip form ASML is a major supplier to South Korea’s chip giant Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.  Yoon is going to visit the ASML headquarters.  ASML is building a massive new assembly facility in South Korea to build on its capacity to supply South Korean firms.

• Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is due to be indicted in a leaked documents case.

• Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives opening remarks at the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence Summit 2023 being held in New Delhi.  India is seeking to be seen as a leader in AI in a bid to draw more foreign direct investment. The Summit goes through December 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Michelle Bullock Speech

• Japan PPI (November)

• India Inflation (October), Manufacturing Production (October)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Index (December), NAB Business Confidence (November)

• Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia's Central Election Commission will decide whether to hold elections in annexed Ukrainian regions.   The Commission is consulting with the Russian Ministry of Defense, FSB, and local occupation officials over when to conduct them.

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels in preparations for the upcoming European Council.  They are expected to also discuss enlargement, annual rule of law dialogue, and managing demographic change in Europe. Ministers will also take stock of negotiations for an association agreement with Andorra and San Marino and discuss Spain’s request to amend regulation no 1/1958.

• The European Parliament will debate and take a final vote on the Critical Raw Materials Act, which aims to boost the supply of strategic raw materials and increase the EU’s competitiveness and sovereignty.

• European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will award the 2023 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to Jina Mahsa Amini and the Woman, Life, Freedom Movement in Iran. Jina Mahsa Amini was a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman who died following physical abuse at the hands of the Iranian security services while in custody. Her death sparked massive women-led protests in Iran against the hijab law and other discriminatory laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled "Risk stemming from the intertwined financial markets" organized by the European American Chamber of Commerce New York (EACCY) in New York,

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

• UK Unemployment (October)

• Serbia Inflation (November)

• Slovakia Construction Output (October)

• Bulgaria Balance of Trade (October)

• Russia Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• In Geneva, the Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, and Palestinian Territories hold a joint press conference on the situation in Gaza Strip.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Auto Production (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Senegal Supreme Court is considering if opposition leader Ousmane Sonko can run for president in February 2024.

• The African Development Bank and OECD Development Centre will host an online panel to discuss the role natural gas can play in developing countries for a balance between reducing poverty, achieving a green transition and protecting the planet. 

• Today is Jamhuri Day in Kenya, a national holiday commemorating when the country was admitted to the Commonwealth in 1964.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Mining Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), SACCI Business Confidence (October & November)

• Angola Inflation (November)

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Global

• The OPEC Monthly Report is released.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Yemen. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), followed by consultations on UNOCA/LRA.

• The UN Global Refugee Forum 2023 will take place at the Palexpo in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Chile's Foreign Minister Alberto van Klaveren will visit Brussels, Belgium, to sign a trade deal with the European Union.  The European Council adopted two decisions last week setting up the signing of the Advanced Framework Agreement (AFA).

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

• US PPI (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 8), NIESR Monthly GDP Tacker (November)

• Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

• Argentina Inflation (November)

• Peru Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Tankan Manufacturing & Industry Outlooks (Q4)

• South Korea Import & Export Prices (November), Unemployment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Western Balkans Summit takes place in Brussels. The aim of the Summit is to reaffirm the EU membership perspective of the Western Balkans.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to address the German Bundestag before a vote on the emergency draft supplemental budget tomorrow (December 14).  Scholz is facing a growing lack of confidence in the government, and recent polls show he has just 20 percent approval ratings nationally.

• Ukraine's largest festival of business innovations, the GET Business Festival, will take place in Kyiv. More than 70 senior executives will gather to share strategies for adapting their businesses to the “new realities” of doing business in Ukraine.

• Today is Republic Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Industrial Production (October)

• Germany Current Account (October)

• UK GDP (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Balance of Trade (October), Construction Output (October)

• Hungary Industrial Production (October)

• Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (October)

• Romania Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October)

• Russia GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the 20th anniversary of the capture of toppled Iraqi president Saddam Hussein by US troops.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Retail Sales (October)

• Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The International Monetary Fund is expected to discuss a possible debt relief program for Somalia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation (November)

Thursday, December 14, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council will hold a vote to adopt the 1988 Committee; then it is expected to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) followed by consultations, and then in the afternoon, a briefing on the Security Council subsidiary organs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuelan. President Nicolas Maduro will meet with Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali to discuss the ongoing tensions between the two countries after Maduro ran a rigged election to claim Guyana's oil and gas deposits.   Maduro has been criticized for his aggressive and unjustified land grab.  The International Court of Justice has sided with Guyana, and the United States has conducted military drills with Guyana to warn off Maduro from taking any military action to seize the disputed area. 

• Economic Reports/Events –

• US Retail Sales (November), Export & Import Prices (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 9)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (October), New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Brazil Retail Sales (October)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (October), Unemployment (November)

• Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China New Yuan Loans (November), M2 Money Supply (November), Outstanding Loan Growth (November), Total Social Financing (November)

• Japan Machinery Orders (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Industrial Production (October)

• India WPI Food Index (November), WPI Fuel (November), WPI Inflation (November), WPI Manufacturing (November)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Unemployment (November)

• Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (Q3)

• Singapore Unemployment (Q3)

• Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Council meets in Brussels through December 15. The leaders may decide on Ukraine’s accession to the EU at this meeting.  They are also expected to discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in all its dimensions, the situation in the Middle East, enlargement, the revision of the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027, progress in the implementation of previous conclusions on security and defense, as well as specific foreign policy issues.

• The German Bundestag is expected to debate and then vote on the government’s emergency draft supplemental budget for 2023.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual end-of-year press conference under a new format branded "Results of the Year."  This will replace his usual “combined format’ where he would allow call-in questions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes

• Spain CPI (November), Inflation (November)

• Ireland CPI (November), Inflation (November)

• Switzerland Central Bank Decision, Producer & Import Prices (November)

• Slovakia Inflation (November), CPI (November)

• Romania Current Account (October)

• Poland Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (October)

• Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Current Account (October), M1 Money Supply (October)

• Turkey FX Reserves (December 8)

• Oman Total Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa SARB Quarterly Bulletin, South Africa Inflation (November), Wholesale Prices (November), PPI (November) 

Friday, December 15, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on small arms: Addressing the threat posed by diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of small arms and light weapons and their ammunition to peace and security.

• Hanukkah ends today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In US Federal Court in Washington, D.C., for his role in planning the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over the Scottish town of Lockerbie.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December), NOPA Crash Report

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the Canadian Club in Toronto.

• Canada Housing Starts (November), Wholesale Sales (October)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

• Colombia Retail Sales (October), Industrial Production (October)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

• Argentina GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), FDI (November), Vehicle Sales (November) Fixed Asset Investment (November), Unemployment (November)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December), Tertiary Industry Index (October)

• India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 1)

• Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI (December)

• Philippines Cash Remittances (October), Business Confidence (Q4)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Sri Lanka PPI (October), GDP (Q3), Manufacturing PMI (November), Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will give a speech at Deloitte’s On “the Bank’s Resolution Regime” in London.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December), Balance of Trade (October), Labor Costs (Q3)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (December), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• France Inflation (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December)

• Italy CPI (November), Inflation (November)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (October)

• Poland Inflation (November)

• Greece Construction Output (Q30

• Hungary Construction Output (October), Inflation (November), CPI (November)

• Bulgaria Inflation (November)

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (October)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Budget Balance (November)

• Israel GDP (Q3), Inflation (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar’s president, Andry Rajoelina, will be sworn in for a third term after winning the election on November 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola GDP (Q3), Wholesale Prices (November) 

Saturday, December 16, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The ASEAN-Japan Summit will meet in Tokyo for a three-day special summit to discuss their response to a number of issues focused on mutual security matters.

• Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day today, a national holiday commemorating the country gaining its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Serbia holds snap parliamentary elections.  Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic called for the elections on November 1.  This will be the third set of parliamentary elections in four years.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Bahrain, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 17, 2023

Global

• Today is the 120th anniversary of the first sustained flight by a manned airplane by brothers Wilbur and Orville Wright aboard the "Wright Flyer.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Chile holds a referendum on the latest draft Constitution, the second attempt in two years.  The first attempt was seen as too left-wing by voters and soundly rejected.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

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