U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Christmas may be around the corner, but the financial regulatory world in Washington is as busy as ever this coming week. While there are important regulatory meetings at the SEC, CFTC, and Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), the real action this coming week will be the growing focus on scandals at the FDIC and OCC and a congressional hearing questioning the role of FINRA.

Pressure on FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg significantly grew this past week as Senate Banking Committee Ranking Republican Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) joined a growing chorus of members of Congress demanding Gruenberg’s resignation. This all comes in the wake of shocking revelations Gruenberg ignored bad behavior among the FDIC staff, including sexual harassment. 

 We think there is little chance he will step down and will almost surely try to fight through the scandal. If Gruenberg steps aside, the Republican FDIC Vice Chair, Travis Hill, would become the acting chair. Hill is an opponent of Gruenberg’s (and the Federal Reserve’s) new bank capital increase and would likely put it on ice.

Gruenberg took heat on another issue this past week from two unlikely critics: Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH).  Warren and Vance sent Gruenberg a letter aggressively questioning and criticizing Gruenberg for the agency’s sale of First Republic Bank to J.P. Morgan earlier this year.  Warren and Vance accused Gruenberg of “using a loophole to ignore viable bids, and instead held the nation’s largest bank grow even bigger.” The letter goes on to demand the FDIC’s reasoning and legal rationale for accepting the J.P. Morgan bid and why there was a $20 billion spread between competing bids (something Gruenberg indicated in answering a question by Senator Vance in a recent Senate Banking Committee hearing).

The other bank regulator to take heat this past week is Acting Comptroller of the Currency, Michael Hsu. Three House Financial Services Committee members fired off a letter to Hsu demanding to know how Hsu, who in October 2022 announced the creation of a new senior position called “the Financial Technology Officer,” then filled the position with someone with shockingly false credentials. Specifically, Hsu hired Prashant Bhardwaj in March for the role.  The OCC announcement stated, “Mr. Bhardwaj joins the agency after nearly 30 years of experience serving a variety of roles across the financial sector.”  But doing that math, that would have meant he started working on Wall Street when he was 13 years old.  

Moreover, Bhardwaj claimed to have been the Chief Information Officer at Fifth Third Bank before taking a similar role at Huntington Bank. In fact, he never worked at either bank. He also falsely claimed educational credentials and concealed his extensive criminal record. All this puts Hsu – who the Biden Administration has never put up for Senate confirmation, preferring to keep him in an acting role – in a very uncomfortable position with Congress.

Finally, FINRA, facing a grave threat to its very existence via a current Supreme Court case, will take further heat this week at the House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets. FINRA President & CEO Robert Cook will testify Tuesday – along with Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Chair Richard Jones and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) Chair Erica Williams – on the “agenda of regulators, SROs (Self-Regulatory Organizations), and Standard Setters for Accounting, Auditing.” 

In advance of the hearing, Cook received a letter this past week from the Subcommittee Chair, Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MS), and two other Subcommittee members charging that “In recent years, FINRA has deviated from its role as a member-driven [self-regulatory organization]...into a quasi-private, quasi-governmental entity that wields largely unchecked executive powers with virtually no regulatory or legislative accountability.” It is likely to be a rough hearing for Cook.

Finally, back to more normal regulatory activities, we will watch closely as the SEC holds an Open Meeting on Wednesday to consider reforms to the U.S. Treasury Market. The CFTC also has an open meeting to consider four new regulatory proposals, including new capital and financial reporting requirements for swap deals. Last, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will chair a Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting on Thursday to review various issues ranging from hedge fund oversight to climate regulations to cybersecurity.

Below is a listing of all issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• December 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing on “Cleaning up the C-Suite: Ensuring Accountability for Corporate Criminals.”

• December 13, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights holds a hearing on “The New Invisible Hand? The Impact of Algorithms on Competition and Consumer Rights.”

House of Representatives

• December 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Restricting Rogue-State Revenue: Strengthening Energy Sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela." Testifying will be The Honorable Marshall Billingslea, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute; Dr. Anna Mikulska, Senior Fellow, Kleiman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania; Dr. Ryan Berg, Director, Americas Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Claire Jungman, Chief of Staff, Against Nuclear Iran, and Adam Smith, Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP.

• December 12, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Examining the Agenda of Regulators, SROs (Self-Regulatory Organizations), and Standards-Setters for Accounting, Auditing." · Testifying will be Erica Williams, Chair of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (“PCAOB”), Richard Jones, Chair of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”), and Robert Cook, President and CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”).

• December 13, 9:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Moving the Money Part 2: Getting Answers from the Biden Administration on the Iranian Regime's Support of Terrorism."·   Testifying will be Elizabeth Rosenberg,  Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, and Abram Paley, Deputy Special Envoy to Iran.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• December 12 – 13: The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee holds a closed meeting to consider interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on the 13th.

U.S. Treasury Department

• December 14, 4:15 p.m. – The Financial Stability Board will meet at the US Treasury Department (Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will chair).  The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes an update on the Council’s Nonbank Mortgage Servicing Task Force; an update on the Council’s Hedge Fund Working Group; an update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee; and an update on cybersecurity developments. The preliminary agenda for the public session includes the Council’s 2023 annual report. 

• December 13, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance.  The agenda includes: a discussion of topics related to climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector; discussion on cyber insurance developments and international insurance issues; status updates from each of its subcommittees and from FIO on its activities, as well as consideration of any new business

Securities and Exchange Commission

• December 13,   10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider rules to improve Risk Management in Clearance and Settlement and to Facilitate Additional Central Clearing for the U.S. Treasury Market.  

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• December 11, 9:30 a.m. – The CFTC holds a meeting of the Market Risk Advisory Committee to discuss current topics and developments in the areas of central counterparty risk and governance, market structure, climate-related risk, and innovative and emerging technologies affecting the derivatives and related financial markets.

• December 13, 9:30 a.m. – 4:00 p.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting to consider four proposed rules.  These include:

1. Operational Resilience Framework for Futures Commission Merchants, Swap Dealers, and Major Swap Participants

2. Capital and Financial Reporting Requirements for Swap Dealers and Major Swap Participants

3. Protection of Clearing Member Funds Held by Derivatives Clearing Organizations

4. Amendments to Swap Data Recordkeeping and Reporting Requirements

5. They will also consider an Amended Application of the Binomial Clearinghouse, LLC for Registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization.

• December 14, 9:00 a.m. – The CFTC holds a meeting of the Agricultural Advisory Committee to discuss topics related to the agricultural economy, including geopolitical and sustainability issues, as well as recent developments in the agricultural derivatives markets.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• December 12, 2:00 p.m. – FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan will give a keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the ISDA Trading Book Capital: Basel 3 Implementation Conference in New York.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

1. December 10, 6:45 p.m. – Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will participate in a discussion about the state of financial inclusion with Operation Hope founder and CEO John Hope Bryant during the Hope Global Forum 2023 Annual Meeting in Atlanta, Georgia.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• December 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting on a quarterly report on economic conditions and farm credit system condition and performance and a semiannual report on Office of Examination operations.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• December 13, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the board of directors.  Agenda includes: (Open) Quarterly FCSIC financial reports; Quarterly report on insured obligations; Quarterly report on annual performance plan; Strategic Plan 2024-2029 (Closed) Report on insurance risk; Federal Managers Financial Integrity Act review; Audit plan for the year ended December 31, 2023; and Executive session of the Audit Committee with the auditor.

 Trade Associations & Think Tank Events 

Trade Associations

December 12, 1:30 – 5:00 p.m. – ISDA holds its “Trading Book Capital: Basel 3 Implementation Conference.”  FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan will give a keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat.

December 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a virtual report on Emerging Market Capital Flows for Latin America (in Spanish).

Think Tanks

• December 12, 9:30 a.m. – The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9:30 a.m., on "Debating the Dollar: Who Wants It, Who Doesn't, and What Comes Next?"

• December 12, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "FSOC's (Financial Stability Oversight Committee) Updated Approach for Responding to Financial Stability Risks: New Guidance on Nonbank "SIFI (Systemically Important Financial Institutions)" Designations."

• December 12, 2:30 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2:30 p.m., on the "Goldman Sachs One Million Black Women Research Partnership," focusing on the "findings and recommendations to close the racial wealth gap."

• December 13, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts an event entitled “The US Debate about the Final Basel III Accord.” 

• December 14, 9:00 a.m. – The Center for Global Development holds a virtual discussion on "Transformation of the MDBs (Multilateral Development Banks): Taking Stock and Looking Forward."

• December 14, 9:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The importance of financial data collection and standardization."  Sen. Jack Reed, (D-Rhode Island), a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee.  delivers morning keynote remarks.  In the afternoon, Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang delivers afternoon keynote remarks.  Other participants/speakers include Sandra Lee, deputy assistant Treasury secretary in the Financial Stability Oversight Council; Makada Henry-Nickie, executive director of JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Allan Mendelowitz, president of the Algorithmic Contract Types Unified Standards Financial Research Foundation and the ACTUS Users Association; Stephan Wolf, CEO of the Global Legal Equity Identifier Foundation; Gillian Tett, U.S. editor-at-large and chair of the editorial board at the Financial Times; Aaron Klein, associate at Semantic Arts, Inc.; Kathryn Judge, professor of law at Columbia University; Ylan Mui, managing director of the Penta Group; and Ben Harris, vice president and director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and director of the Brookings Institution's Retirement Security Project.

• December 14, 3:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Have real estate and labor markets reached a new normal?"

Please let us know if you have any questions or want to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

December 8 - 10, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.   

Americas

• “Africa’s Lessons for Latin America”  Americas Quarterly

  Fellow members of the Global South show what a more unified regional approach can achieve. Recent developments in African regional development, from a free trade area to the rise of the African Union, show that it’s time for a paradigm shift: Latin America must consider the invaluable lessons Africa has to offer.

• “3 Key Issues Ahead of Mexico’s 2024 Election Cycle”  Wilson Center Mexico Election Guide

  As the Mexican presidential cycle gets underway, many will talk about the likelihood of each candidate winning or the role that the Lopez Obrador government will play in deciding this outcome. This report argues much more attention should be paid to the policies that these candidates promise to implement if elected to office. For the Mexican elections in 2024, these are three key issues I think everyone should keep an eye out for: Security, Poverty and Inequality, and Tax Reform.

The Ukraine War

• “The Impact of the War on Ukraine’s Energy Landscape”  Foreign Policy Insitute Eurasia Program

  Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was able to generate substantial revenues from the transit costs of Russian hydrocarbons destined for the European market. Despite the war, Russian oil (and some gas) continues to flow to Europe via Ukraine, and the latter continues to receive transit fees. In the field of hydrocarbons, although Ukraine is far from having hydrocarbon reserves equivalent to those of Russia, it has several assets to offer Europeans, including particularly large storage capacities. Fortunately, these storage facilities are located in the western part of the country, away from much of the fighting.

  Thanks to the successful synchronization of the Ukrainian and the EU power grids, the electricity trade continues. It has become a field of increased cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels, offering a potential blueprint for other sectors with a view to future integration. Despite the immense destruction caused by the Russian army, which specifically targeted the country’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine has shown extraordinary resilience. Ukraine can export electricity to its European partners, creating a profitable situation for both parties and good promises for the future.
  

• “From the Kremlin to the Kitchen: Russian Life in 6 Charts”  Gallup

  As the war in Ukraine crossed the 18-month mark, we recently outlined Ukrainians’ continued support for victory on the battlefield, ambitions to join the EU and NATO, economic strains, and strong support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the military.  Gallup takes stock of public opinion in Russia, outlining six key insights into how life has changed for Russians during the conflict.

• “The Sanctions Against Russia are Starting to Work”  The Atlantic

• Leon Aron, a noted Russia expert, writes that before invading Ukraine, Russia imported most of its key commodities.  Parallel markets cannot make up for the loss of supplies since early 2022.  Many necessities are more expensive, a lot are adulterated, and the quantities available are far smaller than before the war.  Shortages are now emerging across Russia, involving products as varied as tires, printed paper, airplane parts, and cellular towers.  Among the more painful privations is the disappearance of up to 65 percent of crucially important medicines in some large cities.  The Russian Ministry of Health has advised of a coming deficit of almost 200 essential drugs.  More than 40 percent of the Russian government budget goes to defense outlays, and that is set to double in 2024.  The author asks: How long before Putin starts raising taxes and printing banknotes?

• “Blood and Iron: How Nationalist Imperialism Became Russia’s State Ideology”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The nationalist-imperialist worldview that the Putin regime is imposing on Russians is intended to feed on the past and exploit historical memories and concepts to reshape and manage the mass consciousness of the Russian people.

International Economics/Trade

• “The Radical Reshaping of Global Trade”   Harvard Business Review

  The world is shifting from a global trade order to a devolved one in which bilateral agreements, multiple spheres of influence, and self-interested government policies are likely to loom large. Companies should prepare now for a new, fragmented, non-system that will operate in a “permissionless” manner, where organizations will leverage technology to provide coordination amongst stakeholders. The view of globalization as an arm-in-arm march forward has officially been shattered. As companies navigate the reality of new spheres of influence, and bilateral, rules-based trading agreements, those who can build organizations that are resilient and permissionless will benefit the most

• “Norway’s Parliament Backs Deep-Sea Mining Plans”   Financial Times
  Norway has secured a parliamentary majority for its plans to open up for deep-sea mining despite opposition from environmentalists and the fishing industry, who warn that the move risks further damage to fragile oceans.  This opens up about 280,000 sq km — an area just smaller than Italy — for exploration, where they believe there are vast deposits of minerals needed for electric batteries, wind turbines, and other green industries, including copper, cobalt, and rare earth metals such as neodymium and dysprosium.

• “Outlier or not? The Ukrainian Economic Preparedness for EU Accession”  The Vienna Institute for International Economics

  Ukraine’s status as an EU candidate country has prompted a debate about its readiness for the accession process and some doubts about whether Ukraine can meet the Copenhagen Criteria to join the EU. In this study, VIIE investigates Ukraine's ability to meet the economic aspects of the Copenhagen Criteria, comparing it with EU-CEE countries at the time of their membership applications and accession. The study finds that Ukraine is mostly a typical CESEE country and on many indicators, can be compared with the likes of Romania, Poland, and the Baltic countries at the time of their application or accession or both. In certain industries, we already find that Ukraine has a decent level of competitiveness, which bodes well for future convergence prospects. When the war ends, if Ukraine receives security guarantees, it can feasibly follow the successful EU-CEE convergence and integration path with the EU. Ukraine’s main weaknesses are its negative demographic outlook, historical difficulties in attracting FDI, and limited level of existing economic integration with the EU. Tackling these issues should be among the main economic priorities when the war ends. 

China

• “EU and China Between De-Risking and Cooperation: Scenarios by 2035”  Jacques Delors Institute

  At a time when China’s political and economic future and its global relationships have never been so uncertain, the Jacques Delors Institute has gathered experts to chart scenarios for 2035 on key issues in Sino-European relations.  The aim is to pinpoint transformative factors and shed light on pivotal decisions to prevent shifts harmful to European interests.  The scenarios are not mutually exclusive for a given issue. They don’t follow either a predictable path across different sectors based on whether they predict cooperation or conflict. Rather than searching for broad, overarching narratives, the study reveals a labyrinth of possible interconnections. In this age of de-risking, a one-size-fits-all approach to China is inadequate. Europe must craft tools for a finely tuned understanding of mutual strengths and strategies to prevent systemic rivalry from overshadowing partnership and competition.  

• “China’s Economic Plan is Bankrupt”  UnHerd

  Cambridge University Political Economist John Rapley argues the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party rests substantially on its ability to deliver better lives for its citizens. The historical memory of China’s “century of humiliation” — when the proud country became the playground for Western empires from the mid-19th century to the end of the Second World War — hangs heavily over the country’s leaders. They know they must keep pace with their major Western rivals, not least the United States. But the debt-fuelled economic model of the last 25 years is running out of road. News this week that Chinese borrowers are defaulting in record numbers on their debts, everything from mortgages to business loans, led Moody’s credit agency to downgrade the country’s debt rating, highlighting the challenges it faces trying to reinvigorate its economy.

• “Will Property Implode China’s Economy?  Not Necessarily”   Kenneth Rogoff/Asia Times

  China’s property problems are deep, the remedies will be difficult, and the future holds much slower economic growth – but not financial collapse.

• “Who Killed the Chinese Economy?”    Foreign Affairs Podcast

  The Foreign Affairs Podcast has a conversation with Peterson Institute for International Economics President Adam Posen and economists Zonguyan Zoe Liu and Michael Pettis – all of whom have different views on the exact causes of China’s economic stagnation.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

December 4 - 8, 2023

The holidays are just around the corner, and Washington regulators are working hard this week to make their cases on various policy issues before year's end.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give two high-profile speeches, first at the American Bar Association’s Federal Regulation of Securities Winter Meeting and then at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.  SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will also be speaking at the ABA meeting.

Meanwhile, the CFTC is fanning out globally this week with CFTC Chair Rostin Benham and CFTC Commissioners Christy Goldsmith Romero attending and speaking at COP28 in Abu Dhabi.  At the same time, Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson delivers a keynote address at the Financial Times Crypto and Digital Assets Summit in London.

But this week's big regulatory-related media event will be in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee as the CEOs of the eight biggest banks in America will testify at the annual "Oversight of Wall Street Firms" hearing. 

At this point, we do not see any particular "hot-button" issues the CEOs will likely be hammered by Senators over.  In fact, this hearing is likely to give the CEOs a major public platform to push back on the Federal Reserve's recently proposed new capital rules (which most of these CEOs have been publicly pillaring for weeks, most recently from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon who argued it would "impact everything from flight prices to pensioners retirement savings.”)

Below is a listing of issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events.   Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• December 5, 9:30 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee is holding its “Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms” hearing.  Testifying will be Charles W. Scharf, CEO and President of Wells Fargo & Company; Brian Thomas Moynihan, Chairman and CEO of Bank of America; Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup; Ronald O’Hanley, CEO of State Street; Robin Vince, CEO of BNY Mellon; David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs; and James P. Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley.

House of Representatives

• December 5, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets holds a hearing on “Fostering Financial Innovation.”  Federal Reserve Board Director of the Division of Supervision and Regulation Michael Gibson. National Credit Union Administration Director of Financial Technology and Access Charles Vice, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Assistant Director for Competition and Innovation Ann Epstein, Acting Deputy Comptroller Donna Murphy, and SEC Director of Strategic Hub Valerie Szczepanik will testify.

• December 6, 10:00 a.m. – The Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance holds a hearing on “Housing Affordability: Governmental Barriers and Market-Based Solutions”

• The House Financial Services Committee holds a field hearing, “Connecting Communities: Building Innovation Ecosystems Across America” in Little Rock, Arkansas.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• December 5, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Director for the Division of Supervision and Regulation Michael Gibson will testify before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets on “Fostering Financial Innovation” (see above).

U.S. Treasury Department

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• December 4, 10:15 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C.

• December 6, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce gives a speech at the American Bar Association’s Federal Regulation of Securities Winter Meeting in Washington, D.C.

• December 7, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the American Bar Association’s Federal Regulation of Securities Winter Meeting in Washington, D.C.

• December 7. 10:00 a.m. – The SEC Investor Advisory Committee meeting is at the SEC Headquarters.  The agenda includes a panel discussion on enhancing financial literacy, examining the use of complex investment productions and strategies by self-directed investors, and a discussion of a recommendation regarding digital engagement practices.

• December 7, 10:30 a.m. – The SEC hosts the Compliance Outreach for Municipal Market Professionals at the SEC. The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board,  FINRA, and the SEC will co-host the virtual event.  The full agenda can be found HERE.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• December 4, 2:00 p.m. (UAE Time) – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a UN Sustainable Stock Exchanges Initiative panel regarding Exchanges and Climate Innovation at COP28 UAE with IOSCO Secretary General Martin Moloney, ESMA Chair Verena Ross, and others in Dubai.

• December 5, 12:20 p.m. (UAE Time) – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a fireside chat at the Sustainable Innovation Forum 2023 on Building Climate Resilient Markets and Supply Chains Through Derivatives during COP28 in Dubai.

• December 5, 12:35 p.m. (London Time) – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address and participate in a fireside chat at the Financial Times Crypto and Digital Assets Summit: Winder Edition in London, England.

• December 7, 9:40 a.m. (UAE Time) – Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a conversation at the Milken Institute Middle East and Africa Summit in Abu Dhabi.

• December 8, 8:15 a.m. (MST) – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the Energy Council, Global Energy and Environmental Matters Conference in Jackson, Wyoming.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• December 5, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee to discuss a range of issues and developments related to the resolution of systemically important financial companies.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• December 5, 3:00 p.m. – Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will give a virtual speech on financial inclusion at the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• No significant events are scheduled at this time. 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• December 5, 8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance co-hosts with Barclays a “Transition Risk and Investment Breakfast” COP28 in Dubai.

• December 6, 7:30 a.m. (EST) – The Institute for International Finance holds a session entitled “Quantum Computing and Financial Services” virtually.

• December 7, 12:00 p.m. (GMT) – The Institute for International Finance holds its annual International Accounting & Reporting Forum in London.

• December 6 – 7: The American Bar Association’s Federal Regulation of Securities Winter Meeting is being held in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks

• December 5, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Requiring Banks to Hold More Capital: Benefits and Costs” in Washington, D.C.

• December 5, 3:00 – 5:00 p.m. – The Aspen Institute’s Financial Security Program is holding a conference called “Charting a Course Towards a More Inclusive Financial System: Our Collective Call to Action”  Speakers include the Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Graham Steele, and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman.

• December 7, 12:00 p.m. – Georgetown University’s Paros Center for Financial Markets and Policy holds a virtual discussion on “A Path Forward for Regulating Crypto Markets” with former SEC Chair Jay Clayton and former CFTC Chair Tim Massad.

Please let us know if you have any questions or want to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

December 3 - 10, 2023

(NOTE: We apologize for the late publication of our Global Week Ahead.  We experienced technical problems, which have now been fixed).

The Gaza War and the Ukraine War will be dominant issues again this week on the geopolitical calendar.  The US Congress is going to try to move a spending package providing military aid to Israel and Ukraine this week if they can work out an agreement on US border security.  This goal is proving challenging as negotiations keep breaking down.  The White House told Congress that Ukraine will run out of money by the end of the month unless they can approve new funding. 

In Europe, in the wake of the German Constitutional Court decision striking down the German budget and as other EU nations begin struggling with budgets, European Finance Ministers will gather this week to try to hammer out an EU 2024 budget with Ukrainian funding, a critical component of the package. 

On Tuesday, the 44th Gulf Cooperation Council will meet in Qatar, where Gulf leaders will focus on the War in Gaza and prospects for a two-state solution.  But there is little hope of concrete developments from the meetings.

Also, this week, the EU-China Summit will take place in Beijing.  Following the recent success of the APEC Summit and the meeting between President Biden and President Xi, it is hoped EU leaders can achieve new cooperating workstreams with China on several contentious issues, including tech transfer, direct investment, and security.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at the US jobs report on Friday as a further indication the Federal Reserve has achieved its goals to reduce inflation and no longer need to raise rates ahead of the December 13 Open Market Committee meeting.  Also, this week, markets will be watching the ECB consumer expectation survey and the Bank of Canada interest rate meetings.

Turning to Asia, markets will look at China’s trade balance numbers and Japan’s CPI later this week. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, December 3, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuela holds a referendum on the Guyana-administered Essequibo region.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 4, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Factory Orders (October)

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (September)

• Brazil Current Account (October), FDI (October), IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)

• Colombia Exports (October)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The first Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Parliamentary Summit will take place in Vientiane, Laos, through December 7.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Brazilian President Lula meets Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Berlin.  They are expected to discuss the G20 Agenda for 2024 (Brazil has just become the chair of the G20) and how to save the EU-Mercosur Treaty negotiation.

• The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meet through December 5.  They are expected to get a progress report on all the legislative files of the Pact on asylum and migration. Ministers will also receive a state of play of the external dimension of migration. The impact of the crisis in the Middle East and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine on the EU’s internal security will also feature on the agenda.  Justice ministers will aim to reach a general approach on a regulation on the transfer of proceedings and approve the e-justice strategy for 2024-2028.

• EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council will meet.  They are expected to agree a general approach on several legislative files related to three transport modes (horizontal, land and shipping): two Commission proposals of the ‘road safety’ package

• The Financial Times Business Book of the Year is announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at the Académie des Sciences Morales et Politique's conference in Paris, France.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion on Nature and Water Finance for Climate Action organized by the COP 28 Presidency in Dubai, UAE.  Later in the day, he participates in a high-level panel on financial regulation organized by the World Bank.  After that, he participates in a panel discussion at a high-level session, "Inside Green Finance’s Regulatory Landscape," organized by the Abu Dhabi Global Market.  From there, he participates in a  Fireside chat with Mr Elderson and NGFS Chairs (past, current and future) organized by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.  He then participates on a panel “Accelerating Action: Private Sector Accountability & Regulation for Net-Zero Transition" organized by the COP28 Presidency.

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the conference "Una banca en transformación" organized by Prensa Iberica and Grant Thornton in Madrid, Spain.

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Spain Unemployment (November)

• Switzerland Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Romania Unemployment (October)

• Slovakia Real Wages (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to arrive in Qatar for talks on the Middle East conflict. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Inflation (October), CPI (October), PPI (October)

• Bahrain M2 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Global

• The OECD releases its latest Pisa education study based on test results of 15-year-olds’ reading, mathematics and science abilities in 90 countries.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria). 

• The 2023 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial meeting will take place in Accra, Ghana.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Mexico to discuss how to strengthen US-Mexican collaboration on countering fentanyl an illicit finance.

• The Senate Banking Committee is holding its “Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms” hearing.  Testifying will be Charles W. Scharf, CEO and President of Wells Fargo & Company; Brian Thomas Moynihan, Chairman and CEO of Bank of America; Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup; Ronald O’Hanley, CEO of State Street; Robin Vince, CEO of BNY Mellon; David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs; and James P. Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Redbook (December 2), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (November), ISM Services PMI (November), JOLTs Job Openings (October), ISM Services Employment (November), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index (November), Total Vehicle Sales (November)

• Brazil GDP (Q3), BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (October), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (November)

• Colombia PPI (November)

• Uruguay Inflation (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The 2nd ASEA +3 Economic Cooperation and Financial Stability Forum takes place in Kanazawa, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (November)

• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (November) Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (November)

• India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (November)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (November), Retail Sales (October)

• South Korea GDP (Q3), Inflation (November), CPI (November), FX Reserves (November)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (November), Current Account (q3), Next Exports Contribution to GDP (Q3)

• Taiwan FX Reserves (November)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

• Philippine Inflation (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan will meet in Moscow, Russia. 

• The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meets to discuss a general approach on the regulation on measures to reduce the cost of deploying gigabit electronic communications networks (gigabit infrastructure act) and take note of a progress report on the cyber solidarity act (CSoA) laying down measures to strengthen solidarity and capacities in the EU to detect, prepare for and respond to cybersecurity threats and incidents. Ministers will also hold a policy debate on technological leadership and competitiveness and discuss the state of play on a number of current legislative files in the field of telecommunications.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives a keynote speech and will participate in a panel at the  22nd EBI Policy Series on "Making bank resolution more effective – the CMDI initiative" organized by the European Banking Institute in partnership with the European Stability Mechanism in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Eurozone HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (November), Consumer Inflation Expectations (October), PPI (October)

• Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (November)

• France Industrial Production (October), HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (November)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (November), New Car Sales (November)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

• Slovakia GDP (Q3)

• Spain Industrial Production (October), HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

• Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (November)

• Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)

• Romania PPI (October)

• Serbia PPI (November)

• Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The 44th Gulf Cooperation Council will be hosted by Qatar.  Leaders are expected to focus on the situation in Gaza and how to find a peaceful solution to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (November)

• Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Kenya’s President William Ruto will pay a three-day state visit to India. He will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and participate in a business and investment event in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa S&P Global PMI (November), GDP (Q3)

• Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Global

• The Jewish festival of Hanukkah begins.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Also, this afternoon, at 4:30 p.m., the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Fourth Republican Presidential Debate, hosted by NewsNation will be held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  It appears Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramasway have qualified to debate.  It is uncertain whether former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will qualify, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has dropped out of the race.

• The US will host the Defense Industrial Base Conference through December 7.  The meeting will convene US and Ukrainian industry and government representatives to discuss co-production and industrial cooperation with Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 1), ADP Employment Change (November)

• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

• Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Ivey PMI (November)

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October), Nominal Budget Balance (October), Car Production (November)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (November), Auto Exports (November), Auto Production (November)

• Colombia Inflation (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Inflation (November)

• Australia GDP ((Q3), RBA Chart pack, Ai Group Industry Index (November), Ai Group Construction Index (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Retail Sales (October)

• Germany Factory Orders (October), HCOB Construction PMI (November)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

• UK Financial Stability Report,  S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (November)

• France HCOB Construction PMI (November)

• Ireland Unemployment (November)

• Greece GDP (Q3)

• Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Romania Retail Sales (October)

• Hungary Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Slovakia Retail Sales (October)

• Ukraine FX Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UAE S&P Global PMI (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The African Union Congress of African Economists will gather in Lusaka, Zambia, to discuss the link between illicit financial flows, debt management, and development in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

•  Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 7, 2023

Global

• The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

• The OECD Global Forum on Competition meets in Paris, France.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on threats to international peace and security: Transnational organized crime, growing challenges, and new threats.  The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Heads of State of Mercosur and associated nations meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  It was hoped an EU-Mercosur Free Trade Treaty would be announced, but France has made last-minute objections which look to put the deal in jeopardy of getting done.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• US Challenger Job Cuts (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 2), Wholesale Inventories (October), Consumer Credit Change (October), Used Car Prices (November)

• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle will give a speech before the Windsor-Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce in Windsor, Ontario.

• Canada Building Permits (October)

• Mexico Inflation (November)

• Chile Inflation (November), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (November), Inflation (November)

• Paraguay Inflation (November)

• Argentina Industrial Production (October)

• El Salvador Inflation (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)

• Indonesia FX Reserves (November)

• Australia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), Building Permits (October)

• Philippines Unemployment (October)

• Hong Kong FX Reserves (November)

• Singapore FX Reserves (November)

• Thailand CPI (November), Inflation (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-China Summit begins in Beijing.  The agenda items include Among items on the agenda at the first in-person summit in four years is to seek what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a level playing field in trade. The European Union posted the highest trade deficit on record with China in 2022, at nearly 400 billion euros ($436 billion).

• The Eurogroup (European Finance Ministers) will meet in Brussels. They will will discuss the overall budgetary situation and prospects in the euro area and review the economic and fiscal situation of the euro area member states. This discussion is based on Commission opinions on the draft budgetary plans (DBPs) of the euro area member states and on the Commission's communication on its overall assessment of the DBPs, published on 21 November 2023.  They will also exchange first views on the euro area recommendation published with the autumn package on 21 November 2023. The euro area recommendation is expected to be agreed at the Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings on 15 and 16 January 2024 before being transmitted to the European Council for its meeting on 21-22 March 2024.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the plenary session of the 30th annual "Russia Calling!" Investment Forum.

• The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) will meet to adopt a general approach on the Net-Zero Industry Act. They will hold a policy debate concerning the Regulation on forced labor. During lunch, ministers will exchange views on SME policy.

• NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will receive the Prime Minister of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Luc Frieden, at NATO Headquarters.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at an event organized by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, Belgium.

• Eurozone GDP (Q3), Employment Change (Q3)

• Germany Industrial Production (October)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (November), BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Italy Retail Sales (October)

• Romania GDP (Q3)

• Bulgaria Industrial Production (October)

• Switzerland Unemployment (November), FX Reserves (November)

• Hungary PPI (November)

• Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Russia FX Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey’s President Erdogan meets with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at the High-Level Cooperation Council in Thessaloniki, Greece.

• The Milken Institute’s Middle East and Africa Summit will be held through December 8 in Abu Dhabi.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt FX Reserves (November)

• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa FX Reserves (November), Current Account (Q3)

Friday, December 8, 2023

Global

•  G7 Interior and Security Ministers meet in Mito, Japan through Sunday.

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Price Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (November), Unemployment (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), WASDE Report

• Canada Capacity Utilization (Q3)

• Brazil Business Confidence (December)

• Costa Rica Inflation (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China FX Reserves (November)

• Japan GDP (Q3), Current Account (October), Household Spending (October), Average Cash

• Earnings (October), Overtime Pay (October), Bank Lending (November), Eco Watchers Survey (November)

• India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio, FX Reserves (December 1)

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Philippine FDI (September)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

• Malaysia Unemployment (October)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (November), FX Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The UK’s National Audit Office issues a report on financial services regulation, examining the Financial Conduct Authority’s effectiveness in working with others, particularly Treasury officials.

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) will meet to seek a general approach on the proposed reform of the economic governance framework. Ministers will adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans submitted by some member states. The presidency will present progress reports on own resources and the single currency package. Ministers will discuss the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the European Semester.

• The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and space) will meet seek a general approach on the proposed reform of the economic governance framework. Ministers will adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans, submitted by some member states. The presidency will present progress reports on own resources and the single currency package. Ministers will discuss the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the European Semester. The Council will approve report to the European Council on tax issues and conclusions on the progress achieved by the Code of Conduct Group.

• UK train drivers' union ASLEF will hold a rolling seven-day strike impacting services at 14 British railway companies.

• Germany’s Social Democrats will meet through Sunday for their annual national party conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Inflation (November), CPI (November)

• France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

• Hungary Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

• Greece Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

• Ireland Industrial Production (October)

• Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

• Bulgaria Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

• Ukraine Inflation (November)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (November), Inflation (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel FX Reserves (November), Budget Balance (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Tanzania Inflation (November) 

Saturday, December 9, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation (November), PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Prize Awards Ceremony is held in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentine President-elect Javier Milei will be sworn into office.  Meanwhile, the Argentine Union of State Employees (ATE) is expected to carry out a 24-hour strike to protest Milei’s planned fiscal plans.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong holds local District Council elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 11 to discuss the market situation and to exchange views on the first year of implementation of the CAP strategic plans.  Additionally, the Council is expected to address the new genomic techniques regulation, the sustainable use of pesticides regulation, and the proposals for plant reproductive material and forest reproductive material. Finally, fisheries ministers will aim to reach a political agreement on the proposal for fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2024 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2025 and 2026, as well as on the proposal concerning fishing opportunities in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea for 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Egypt holds presidential elections. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is widely expected to win re-election.

• The Doha Forum begins in Doha, Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

December 1 - 3, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• “Import Substitution and the Economic Downfall of Argentina”   OMFIF

  At the beginning of the 20th century, Argentina was the fifth-largest economy in the world. Many at the time expected it to rival the US economy. In the 1950s, Argentina’s gross domestic product per capita was twice that of Spain and three times that of Japan. Today, Argentina is a completely different story. It has defaulted nine times in total and three times in the 21st century alone. What went wrong for Argentina? How did it lose its way?

• “On the Uses and Misuses of Venezuela Sanctions” Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Over the last month, the Biden administration has presided over a sea change in U.S. policy toward Venezuela. The recent lifting of sanctions on the Maduro regime is the most significant alteration of Venezuela's policy in the last several years, coupled with routine deportation flights started on the same day as the sanctions relief to address a torrent of Venezuelan irregular migration. Gone is the policy of “maximum pressure” that Biden inherited from his predecessor, which had garnered bipartisan support on Capitol Hill. From its earliest days, the Biden administration signaled its discomfort with a maximum pressure campaign and its intent to unwind sanctions in exchange for concessions from the Maduro regime toward a free and fair election.

• “Henry Kissinger, Colossus on the World Stage”  Foreign Policy

  Henry Alfred Kissinger, one of the most influential statesmen in American history, died on Nov. 29 at age 100 after a long and tumultuous career in which he helped author some of the greatest triumphs—as well as some of the most tragic failures—of U.S. foreign policy. He was credited with several of the most epoch-making diplomatic achievements since World War II. These included launching detente with the Soviet Union to preserve peace during the Cold War and, along with his boss, President Richard Nixon, dramatically altering the terms of that 40-year conflict by opening relations with communist China in 1972.

• “What America Wants from China”  Foreign Affairs

  Brookings Institution John Thorton China Center Director Ryan Hass writes that Washington needs to set an objective on China that would enjoy durable domestic support and be compatible with foreign partners’ priorities, allowing them to anticipate the direction of U.S. policy and its guiding logic.  He then presents a smart and highly compelling strategy for keeping Beijing entangled in the World Order and keeping peace globally.

The Middle East

• “The Gaza War and the Rest of the World”  Malcolm Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

  Scholars from Carnegie’s global network comment on how the ongoing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is affecting their areas of interest and what the implications of this may be.

• “Why Israel Won’t Change”  Foreign Affairs

  Almost from the moment Hamas broke through Israel’s security barrier with the Gaza Strip on October 7 and began its rampage, it felt as if Israel would never be the same. Within hours, Israelis were forced to confront the reality that many of the assumptions that had long guided Israeli policy toward the Palestinians had crumbled. Yet, in one major way, Israel remains unchanged. Although Israelis blame the country’s leadership for the catastrophic security failures surrounding the attacks, their basic political orientation seems unlikely to budge. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may well be forced to step down when the war is over—if not before since the war has no clear endpoint. But as Israeli history has repeatedly shown, especially in recent decades, episodes of war or extreme violence like the current one have only reinforced a rightward tilt in Israeli politics.

• “Stormy Waters for Saudi Arabia: Regional Conflict and Red Sea Security”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  In recent years, Red Sea security has become a key pillar of Saudi Arabia’s domestic and foreign policy. Driven by geostrategic ambitions and plans to diversify its oil economy, the kingdom has strengthened security relations in the area by building alliances with Israel and coastal African countries and by de-escalating conflicts with Iran and Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis. There have been efforts made to modernize the Royal Saudi Naval Forces, particularly the Western Fleet, which operates in the Red Sea, and to tighten naval cooperation with Egypt. Multilateral initiatives have seen Riyadh at the forefront—including the Saudi-led Red Sea Council and U.S.-led task forces deployed in the Red Sea to counter smuggling and train local navies. 

North Asia

• “Modest Beginnings: North Korea Launches Its First Reconnaissance Satellite”  38 North

  North Korea conducted a satellite launch on November 21, first reported by Japanese and South Korean sources. The next day, North Korean media announced a successful launch from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground of the “Chollima -1” space-launch vehicle (SLV) orbiting the “Malligyong-1” reconnaissance satellite. This was the first successful launch of the Chollima-1 SLV after two previous failures.  What does this mean for regional and global security?  And what could North Korea do next?

• “A Look at China’s Overseas Security Partnerships”  American Enterprise Institute Podcast

  In this episode of the U.S.-China Nexus Podcast, Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Paul Nantulya examine the motivations and implications of China’s broadening overseas security partnerships.

• “How China’s Belt and Road Projects Are Shaping Global Trade and What to Expect from the Initiative in its Second Decade”   MERICS China Global Competition Tracker

  Having celebrated the end of the first decade of his signature foreign policy at the Belt and Road Forum in October, Xi Jinping has wasted little time in doubling down on China’s global economic ambitions. On November 29th, a follow-up document was released in Beijing to map out the goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for the coming ten years. 

Global Finance & Economics

• “What We Heard: Bank of Canada Publishes Report on Digital Dollar Consultations, Outlines Further Engagement Plans”  Bank of Canada

  In a public update on the prospects of moving the Canadian dollar to digital, the Bank of Canada reports they heard: 1) Financial sector stakeholders generally wanted more concrete details about how a digital dollar would work so they could better understand the potential impacts on their business models and overall financial stability. 2) Focus group participants largely accepted the potential need for a digital dollar in the future but wanted more information on how exactly it would work. 2) Civil society groups mainly supported a digital dollar if its design would remove existing barriers to accessibility and financial inclusion. 3) Respondents to the public questionnaire were largely opposed to a digital dollar and to the Bank of Canada researching it. They were concerned about the impacts that a digital dollar could have on their rights.

Chart of the Week 

America’s High Schoolers Are Running Out of Time

Bloomberg’s editorial board writes that America’s high schools face a growing crisis: Millions of students who entered ninth grade in the fall of 2020, at the height of the pandemic, are set to graduate this spring, with little hope of recovering from the learning loss incurred while schools were shut. Simply put, they’re running out of time.

They note that since 2022, the average scores on ACT exams were the lowest in 30 years and the number of students receiving failing grades has soared.

This comes as the U.S. rapidly ramps up the re-shoring of hi-tech manufacturing – via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act –  which demands a massive new workforce proficient in science and math.  Clearly, the challenges of meeting those needs are obviously becoming starker.

It Was the Best Vacation Ever…

I was away for ten days in Saint Martin. It was the best vacation ever - thank you, Saint Martin. I’ll be back!

Brendan Francis Kelly with me, his grandfather who is known as “Tank.”

Global Week Ahead

November 26 - December 3, 2023

The situation in Gaza continues to dominate the attention of global political leaders and the markets as a temporary pause in the war is scheduled to end today after three groups of hostages were released in the last few days.  What happens now is unclear, as the cease-fire could continue if more hostages are released.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the region this week to encourage continued negotiations.  Conversely, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Turkey and Syria to discuss the situation in Gaza.  Raisi has been outspoken in his desire to rally the Muslim world in opposition to Israel and support Hamas. 

Also happening in the Middle East this week is the beginning of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.  The event will see leaders worldwide gather to discuss the next steps in climate change policy.  But expectations are already muted due to the Gaza War and many global leaders who are not attending, including President Biden.   

Closer to home, the U.S. Congress returns to work this week following the Thanksgiving recess last week.  They will continue to struggle to pass appropriations bills by the end of the year and come to a decision on how to pass a sizeable military assistance package for Israel along with a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Tied up with this is Republican demands for more funding for border security for the U.S. southern border.  A deal can be made if all three funding requests are tied up together, but getting to that point will take the better part of the week to iron out the details.

On the global economic data radar screen, it is a relatively quiet calendar of releases this week. Markets are watching for the PMI reports from China, Japan, and the EU this week.  Also closely watched will be U.S. personal income and spending data along with the PCE (which the Federal Reserve watches most closely to gauge inflation). 

Also, OPEC+ meets this week after delaying their scheduled meeting last week.  African oil producing countries reportedly were resisting further cuts to production, which both Saudi Arabia and Russia have been advocating.

There will be several central bank speeches this week, led by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and later in the week when she speaks at the ECB’s 5th Forum on Banking Supervision.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will talk Wednesday and Friday at Spelman College in Georgia and Bank of England Andrew Bailey. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Treasury Undersecretary of Treasury for Terrorism & Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Turkey and Oman through December 1 to discuss ways to further cut off Hamas’ ability to access funding.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Monday, November 27, 2023

Global

• The 2nd meeting of States Parties (2MPS) to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons commences in New York.  The United States, France, and the UK are not signatories to the Treaty.

• The UN Forum on Business and Human Rights takes place in New York through November 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Israel for talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials about the Gaza War.  This will be Blinken’s fourth trip to the region since Hamas’ terrorist assault on Israel on October 7th.

• The US Congress returns from their Thanksgiving recess to again work on appropriations bills, a military aid package to Israel and further military aid to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US New Home Sales (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Building Permits (October)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

• Peru GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visits Japan to discuss trade issues and to upgrade diplomatic relations to the status of strategic partnership – the highest diplomatic status possible.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (October)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)                                                           

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Economy Minister Habeck will hold emergency meetings with German state-level economic ministers to discuss the consequences of the recent Constitutional Court decision on the German budget.

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the second Global Investment Summit, showcasing British expertise to attract foreign backers. More than 200 heads of multinational companies and investment firms have been invited to attend.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels to discuss preparations for the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference, an interim trade agreement with Chile, and the state of EU-US trade relations.

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Brussels through November 28.  They are expected to discuss reaching a general approach on the directive on the European disability card and the European parking card for persons with disabilities. Under the umbrella of the 2024 European Semester, they will hold a policy debate on green collective bargaining. They will also discuss anti-racism and social investment in the EU. Ministers will also seek to approve conclusions, among others, on digitalization in social security coordination.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• France Unemployment (October)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The Abu Dhabi Finance Week begins and runs through November 30.  There are six Forums being held as part of the week, including the Abu Dhabi Economic Forum, the Asset Abu Dhabi, the Fintech Abu Dhabi, the Global Financial Regulators Summit, the R.A.C.E. Sustainability Summit, and Falcon Square (where 15 startups will showcase their innovations).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (October), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 3rd International Conference on Public Health in Africa (CPHIA 2023), organized by the African Union and Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), will be held in Lusaka, Zambia, through November 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an Economic Outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

•  Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank’s Modernized Community Reinvestment Act and Indian Country (virtual)

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision will participate in a Fireside Chat on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Opportunity Finance Network (virtual).

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at the Bank’s annual Midwest Agriculture Conference at the Chicago Fed.

• US Redbook (November 25), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence (November), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Richmond Fed Services Index (November), Dallas Fed Services Index (November),

• Bank of Canada Executive Director Ron Morrow will speak at the Central 1 Credit Union’s Momentum 2023 Summit in Ottawa.

• Brazil IPCA Mid-month CPI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Indonesia formally begins the election campaign season as three candidates - Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan – run to become the next president.  The campaign ends on February 10.

The China International Supply Chain Expo begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Vietnam FDI (November)

• Malaysia PPI (October)

• Australia Retail Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the War in Ukraine.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will address the German Bundestag on the budget crisis.

• Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela will visit Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• British and Irish ministers gather for the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin.  However, there is currently no government in place in Northern Ireland, as all parties are deadlocked on creating a new government.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

• Today is Albania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video address to the 2023 European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) Conference "European corporate reporting - Two pillars of success" in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy organized by Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel entitled "Regulatory Leaders’ Dialogue: Are we entering a new age of bank supervision?" at the Financial Times Global Banking Summit in London, United Kingdom.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Jonathan Haskel will give a speech at Warwick University entitled “UK inflation: How did we get here and where are we going?”

• Eurozone Loans to Companies (October), Loans to Households (October), M3 Money Supply (October)
  Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

• France Consumer Confidence (November)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

• Hungary GDP (Q3)

• Greece Total Credit (October)

• Ireland Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Turkey and Syria to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment (Q3), M3 Money Supply (October), Private Bank Lending (October)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (October), Private Banking Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Mauritania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (November) 

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Global

• The OECD publishes its latest Global Economic Outlook.

• The UN observes the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. A special meeting is organized at 11 a.m. at the Palais des Nations. The commemoration will also be webcast live to allow interested participants to follow the event virtually on the UN Web TV.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The New York Times DealBook Summit will be held in New York.  Vice President Kamala Harris, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn, Elon Musk, and other senior political and corporate executives are scheduled to speak.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give keynote speech before the Policy Conference 2023 hosted by the Loyola University Chicago Quinlan School of Business.

• US GDP (Q3), Fed Beige Book, Corporate Profits (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (October), Wholesale Inventories (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3)

• Canada Current Account (Q3)

• Brazil PPI (October), IGP-M Inflation (November)

• Chile Unemployment (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Adachi Seiji gives a speech to local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

• South Korea Business Confidence (November)

• Australia Construction Work Done (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (October)

• Singapore Export & Import Prices (October), PPI (October)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Philippines Budget Balance (October)

• Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Berlin Security Conference begins in Berlin and runs through November 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks at the 50th anniversary of the London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee in London.

• EU Economic Sentiment (November), Consumer Confidence (November), Industrial Sentiment (November), Selling Price Expectations (November), Services Sentiment (November)

• Germany Inflation (November)

• UK Bank of England Consumer Credit (October), Mortgage Approvals (October)

• Italy PPI (October), Construction Output (Q3), Inflation (November), Industrial Sales (September)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (November)

• Spain Inflation (November), Retail Sales (October), Business Confidence (November)

• Bulgaria Business Confidence (November)

• Italy Business Confidence & Consumer Confidence (November)

• Ireland Inflation (November), Industrial Sales (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

• Russia GDP (October), Unemployment (October), Business Sentiment (November), Corporate Profits (September), Industrial Production (October), Real Wage Growth (September), Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Economic Confidence Index (November)

• Bahrain Inflation (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Global

• The OPEC+ meetings scheduled for last week (November 25-26) were delayed and are now scheduled to take place today.  It is now increasingly believed a dispute between African members and Saudi Arabia led to the delay and less likely odds further cuts in production will be agreed to by the cartel.

• COP28 begins in Dubai and runs through December 12.

• The UN Security Council is expected to hold a vote on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Venezuela to meet the terms of the agreement with the US to meet democratic reform commitments in return for the relaxation of US sanctions.

• California Governor Gavin Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will debate each other on Fox.

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas holds the 2nd CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop.  A number of international regulators and US regulators will participate.

• Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Core PCE Price Index (October), Personal Income (October), Personal Spending (October), Pending Home Sales (October)

• Canada GDP (Q3), CFIB Business Barometer (November)

• Brazil Unemployment (October), Net Payrolls (October)

• Mexico Unemployment Rate (October), Fiscal Balance (October)

• Chile Copper Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Colombia Unemployment (October), Cement Production (October)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Bhutan holds parliamentary elections.

• Indonesian union members will begin protests over wage-related issues.  The protests are expected to run through December 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Nakamura Toyoaki gives a speech to local leaders in Hyogo, Japan.

• China NBS Manufacturing PMIs (November)

• India GDP (Q3), Infrastructure Output (October), Government Budget Value (October)

• Japan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Consumer Confidence (November), Housing Starts (October), Construction Orders (October)

• Australia Building Permits (October), Housing Credit (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

• South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Thailand Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Private Investment (October)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels to discuss open strategic autonomy from a health perspective, and they will seek to approve conclusions on mental health. The Spanish presidency will also update ministers on ongoing legislative files and their state of play, such as the regulation on EMA fees, the European Health Data Space regulation, the regulation on substances of human origin, and the pharmaceutical package.

• The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels to exchange views on cohesion policy post-2027. They will also be invited to approve conclusions on the future of cohesion policy.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank holds a Governing Council (non-monetary policy) meeting in Frankfurt.

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a welcome address at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a conversation with Jacques de Larosière, former Governor of the Banque de France and Managing Director of the IMF, at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel "Taking stock: the single supervisor ten years on" at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel "Modern supervision: what is key?" at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Green will give a speech at Leeds University entitled “Are we there yet? A journey into monetary policy and medium-term factors”

• Eurozone Inflation (November), Unemployment (October), CPI (November)

• Germany Retail Sales (October), Import Prices (October), Unemployment (November)

• France Inflation (November), GDP (Q3), PPI (October)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

• Italy Inflation (November), CPI (November)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (October), KOF Leading Indicators (November)

• Bulgaria PPI (October)

• Poland Inflation (October), GDP (Q3)

• Spain Current Account (September)

• Slovenia CPI (November), Inflation (November)

• North Macedonia Current Account (Q3), Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (Q3), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment (Q3)

• Hungary Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Greece CPI (November), PPI (October), Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (October)

• Ukraine Current Account (October)

• Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bahrain M2 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Kenya Inflation Rate (November) 

Friday, December 1, 2023 

Global

• Brazil takes the rotating G20 Chair for 2024 from Japan.

• Ecuador assumes the monthly rotating chair of the UN Security Council.

• Today is the first day of winter per the meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will participate in a Fireside Chat with Spelman College President Helene Gayle at Spelman College, Atlanta, Georgia.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a keynote speech on supervision and regulation at the Fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Bank’s annual Economic Outlook Symposium.

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), ISM Manufacturing Employment (November), Construction Spending (October)

• Canada Unemployment (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Mexico FX Reserves (October), Business Confidence (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Brazil Industrial Production (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Balance of Trade (November)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Peru Inflation (November)

• Argentina Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China officially begins to implement export controls on several critical minerals needed for electric vehicles (EVs).

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Bank Loan Growth (November 17), FX Reserves (November 24), Deposit Growth (November 17)

• Japan Unemployment (October), Capital Spending (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (November)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Commodity Prices (November)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Inflation (November)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Business Confidence (November)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

• Today is Romania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a conversation at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel entitled "The road ahead for bankers and policymakers" at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• France Budget Balance (October), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Italy GDP (Q3)

• Ireland  GDP (Q3), GNP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Hungary GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (September), HALPIN Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Switzerland GDP (Q3)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November) 

Saturday, December 2, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 3, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuela holds a referendum on the Guyana-administered Essequibo region.

Economic Reports/Events –

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

 Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

November 27 - December 1, 2023

Washington returns to work this week after a long (and hopefully relaxing) Thanksgiving holiday.  We are watching three major events – two of which come in sets – this week. 

The first is in Frankfurt, Germany, at the Fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023, a virtual “who’s who” of global financial regulators, bank CEOs,  and leading financial member of the media.  Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr will be among several major regulators speaking on various regulatory issues.  Expect a spirited defense of new bank capital rules and the need for tighter global coordination on bank regulation.

The second significant event of the week we are watching is two speeches by Vice Chair Barr  is giving in the US addressing the Fed’s recently proposed changes to the Community Reinvestment Act.  As we see it, these speeches are a continuation of a virtual barn-storming tour Barr is taking to defend the new measures as banks consider taking legal action to push back on the proposal.

The third set of events we are watching this week is the testimony of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and then the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.   We expect fireworks at both of these hearings.

Chopra has been pushing several regulatory agenda items that are, quite frankly, anathema to the financial services sector, which has, in turn, mounted a growing lobbying effort in Congress to step in and block the CFPB’s actions.   Chopra has a somewhat cantankerous relationship with House and Senate Republicans.  We can expect him to get a lot of questions about his effort and what knowledge – if any – of the unfolding sexual misconduct scandal at the FDIC, where Chopra sits on the board.  Recall that Chopra was instrumental in helping FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg regain the chair and has been a solid ally to Gruenberg.

Below is the full regulatory calendar for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

• November 29, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.”  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.

U.S. Senate

• The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress.”  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.  

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Global Events

• November 29 – The Global Financial Regulators Summit begins in Abu Dhabi.  A large number of financial regulators – including a number of U.S. regulators – will gather at the invite-only event.

• November 30 — December 1 — The ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023 is being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• November 28, 10:05 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an Economic Outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

• November 28, 1:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank’s Modernized Community Reinvestment Act and Indian Country (virtual)

• November 28, 3:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision will participate in a Fireside Chat on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Opportunity Finance Network (virtual).

• November 30 – December 1 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas holds the 2nd CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop.  A number of international regulators and US regulators will participate.

• December 1, 3:00 a.m. (Frankfurt time) – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a keynote speech on supervision and regulation at the Fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

• December 1, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will participate in a Fireside Chat with Spelman College President Helene Gayle at Spelman College, Atlanta, Georgia.

U.S. Treasury Department

November 28, 9:00 a.m. – U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will give a keynote address at the American Bankers Association Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Washington, D.C.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• November 29, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee.

• November 30, 2:15 p.m. – The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• November 29, 10:30 a.m. Abu Dhabi time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham will participate in the Global Financial Regulators Summit and speak on a panel entitled “How The Transition Era Will Affect the Global Banking System” at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week.

• November 29, 6:00 p.m. Dallas time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• No significant events are scheduled.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• No significant events are scheduled.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No significant events are scheduled.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant events are scheduled.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• November 29 (no times listed for security reasons) – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a moderated conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit at Lincoln Center in New York.

Farm Credit Administration

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• November 30 – SIFMA holds its 20th Global Corporate Actions Forum in New York.

• November 30 – ISDA holds a conference entitled “Trading Book Capital: Basel 3 Implementation, Climate Risk in the Trading Book” in London. 

• November 28 – 30 – The American Bankers Association holds its Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Washington, D.C.  Senior U.S. regulators and U.S. Justice Department officials will speak.

Think Tanks

•  Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Thanksgiving Weekend Reads

November 23 - 16, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.  We hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend!

The Middle East

• “US Wants a ‘revitalized’ Palestinian Authority, but can Abbas deliver?” Al Monitor

  As the international community and Western think tanks continue to discuss the future of Gaza and Palestinian leadership, US President Joe Biden weighed in on Nov. 18 in an opinion piece for The Washington Post in which he called for Gaza and the West Bank to be reunited "under a single governance structure, ultimately under a revitalized Palestinian Authority." 

• “The making of a ‘more for more’ deal in the Gaza War”  David Ignatius/Washington Post

  How was a deal reached between Israel and Hamas on releasing hostages?  Washington Post columnist David Ignatius talks to a high-ranking Israeli official and a high-ranking Qatari official to shed light on how the deal came into effect and what it might mean going forward.

• “Hamas’s Asymmetric Advantage”  Foreign Affairs

  That Israel met Hamas’s violence with violence is not remotely surprising, given the Israeli military’s incomparable conventional military superiority to Hamas. Israel has long responded to Palestinian terrorism with inordinate force. The Israeli military is stronger, larger, and better resourced than Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups, and Israeli planners know that their foes cannot go toe to toe with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).  Yet Israel’s military advantages are growing slimmer. Hamas has proved difficult, if not impossible, to vanquish with military force. Technology has shrunk the gap between states and terrorists, allowing nonstate groups to behave in ways that mimic the operations of countries; Hamas can launch sophisticated attacks and spread propaganda as much as Israel can. Ancient tactics, too, such as the construction of a warren of tunnels beneath Gaza, have helped Hamas fend off a more powerful adversary. And Hamas gained leverage by capturing some 240 hostages. States have always struggled to defeat terrorist groups, but the Israel-Hamas war shows why it has gotten even harder to do so.

European Union & UK 

• “German budget disarray sends out powerful ripples beyond Berlin”  OMFIF

  David Marsh, the Chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), argues that while many observers of the recent German Constitutional Court decision on budgetary policy are missing the broader implications to Germany and the EU – most especially, it will likely influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy perspectives.

• “Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking: An Expanding UK Market”   Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

  Across the globe, supply chains of every description are tainted by exploited labor. The UK is no exception: here, as elsewhere, labor is often the greatest cost to business. Reducing this cost offers the fastest route to increased margins. For some businesses, they will use whatever means possible.  In the UK, according to the report, human trafficking and modern slavery have likely increased substantially over the last decade.

Americas

• “Americas Quarterly Podcast: Mexico’s Elections Begin to Take Shape”   Americas Quarterly

  In June 2024, Mexico will elect a new president.  Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León, Mexico’s industrial powerhouse, announced he will run, while former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who was seen as a possible aspirant, said he will not. Although García’s candidacy is seen as a long shot, how might it affect the campaigns of the current favorite, Claudia Sheinbaum, from the governing Morena coalition, and Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate from the opposition Frente Amplio por México? What does this electoral cycle reveal about the current state of Mexican politics? And what are the factors that could shape the race going forward? Political consultant Carlos Ramírez joins us to explore these and other questions.

• “Canada’s bid to attract technology talent”  Institute for Strategic Studies

  The Canadian government has launched a Tech Talent Strategy that eases immigration restrictions to attract foreign entrepreneurs and skilled workers. The initiative, greeted with overwhelming demand on its launch, responds to a shortage of tech skills in the domestic workforce and targets H-1B visa holders in the United States. If Canada succeeds in significantly raising its profile as a home for technological innovation, it will, on net, contribute to the cause of Western technological independence from China. At least some of this success, however, would likely come at the expense of the US and serve as a signal to Washington that its immigration policies, last overhauled by Congress in 1986, are dampening domestic innovation and economic growth.

• “Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data”  Thomas Dreschsel/University of Maryland

  Abstract: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify shocks to political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I built a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political interference and can arise endogenously, I use a narrative identification strategy. To get re-elected, President Nixon pressured Fed Chair Burns to ease monetary policy in 1971. I exploit this episode through narrative sign restrictions in an SVAR that includes the personal interaction data and typical macro data. I find that political pressure shocks (i) increase inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contribute to other inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmit differently from standard expansionary monetary policy shocks, in particular by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. While the benefits of central bank independence have previously been shown using cross-country data, my estimates cover one economy through time and are quantitative: increasing political pressure 50% as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the U.S. price level by more than 8%.

China

• “Foreign direct investment is existing China”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  New Chinese data imply that foreign firms operating in China are not only declining to reinvest their earnings but—for the first time ever—they are large net sellers of their existing investments to Chinese companies and repatriating the funds.  These outflows exceeded $100 billion in the first three quarters of 2023 and are likely to grow further based on trends to date. The investment selloffs are contributing to downward pressure on the value of the Chinese currency and, if sustained, will modestly reduce China’s potential growth.

• “Podcast: The Philippines Perspective of China’s Role in the South China Sea” China Power/CSIS

  The podcast takes a look at the Philippines’s view of the recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and China’s behavior in the waters and beyond., diving into China’s coercive tactics in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal and its repeated violations of international law in those areas.

• “Investigating state support for China’s medical technology companies” Merics

  Medical technologies are a key focus of China's industrial policy strategy and central to Beijing’s plans to move up the value chain. To spur on the development of local firms and promote self-reliance in this highly innovative sector, Chinese officials are steering research into key technologies and offering financial assistance to promising firms. In addition, biased procurement processes and regulatory barriers are limiting market access opportunities for foreign firms.  This study seeks to quantify the value of state support in China's MedTech sector. While data limitations obscure the impact of market access barriers, it shows that measurable forms of financial support directed to Chinese MedTech firms have grown about five times between 2017 and 2022. Beijing is facilitating the rise of increasingly competitive domestic players, posing a challenge for foreign firms both in China as well as abroad.

The Race for Critical Minerals

and Alternative Energy

• “The Geopolitics of Hydrogen”  German Institute for International and Security Affairs

  The transition to a hydrogen-based economy is gaining momentum in both Germany and the European Union (EU). Used as an energy carrier, hydrogen holds the promise of freeing hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, aviation, and maritime trade from their emissions. At the same time, policymakers hope that hydrogen will promote Europe’s energy independence, push sustainable development, and strengthen value-based trade. This study presents three plausible yet disruptive scenarios for the geopolitics of hydrogen up to the year 2040 (developed with a team of experts in a multi-stage foresight process). “Hydrogen Realignment” considers the possibility of an eastward shift of industry, power, and technological leadership; “Hydrogen (In)Dependence” depicts a future in which Europe pursues hydrogen self-sufficiency but becomes dependent on raw material supply; and “Hydrogen Imperialism” delves into the dystopian scenario of a hydrogen transition dominated by hegemons and despots.

• “China Aims to Corner the Undersea Mineral Market, Too”   Foreign Policy

  Hungry for more critical minerals to power the energy transition, a slew of countries and companies are desperate to start mining the seafloor for a potential cache of metals—including cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese—that will be critical to the scramble to build ever more batteries. International negotiations are now underway to craft a mining rulebook for the high seas, and China doesn’t want to be left out of the race. Eager to maintain its command of the world’s critical mineral supply chains, experts say that Beijing is positioning itself for success in the prospective industry by ramping up investment and shaping negotiations, even though it doesn’t appear to be in a rush to begin mining.

• “A rush for Lithium in Africa risks fueling corruption and failing citizens”   Global Witness

  Efforts to address the global climate emergency are leading to an increased demand for renewable energy technology, particularly in the Global North, including electric vehicles and the batteries required to power them. Africa is one of the new frontiers in a race for battery metals, and lithium – sometimes referred to as ‘white gold’ – is one of the most sought-after commodities.  Global Witness investigated three emerging lithium mines in Zimbabwe, Namibia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). What we found shows that the rush for lithium on the continent – far from delivering a ‘just energy transition’ – risks fueling corruption and a range of other environmental, social, and governance (ESG) problems. For generations, African nations have been exploited for their minerals, and as the demand for ‘transition minerals’ increase, there is a danger of history repeating itself.

The Global Week Ahead

November 19 - 26, 2023

For the first time in a long time, the coming geopolitical week looks like it will be a relatively quiet one.  The ongoing battle in Gaza between Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas will continue to be the focus as Middle Eastern leaders met with China’s top diplomat Minister Wang Yi to discuss finding a way to bring an end to the hostilities.

EU Foreign Ministers will also gather virtually to discuss the Gaza situation as the EU’s top diplomat conducts a whirlwind of meetings in the Middle East seeking to mediate.

Meanwhile, G20 leaders will gather virtually later this week to review issues discussed at the recent summit in New Delhi.  Gaza and the situation in Ukraine will dominate the agenda, as will how leaders can work together to find solutions. 

Washington has gone quiet in the US as Congress has taken the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday.  They return next week, where they will again take up efforts to finalize appropriation bills after passing another last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government running.

On the global economic radar screen, it is a fairly quiet week for major economic reports.  The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank release meeting minutes this week.  This Friday, markets will also watch PMIs from Europe, Japan, and the US.  Germany will also release Q3 GDP figures on Friday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 19, 2023 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family, who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Monday, November 20, 2023

Global

• The Emissions Gap Report 2023 will be launched by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).  UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, will brief journalists on that report. He will be joined virtually by Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director, and Anne Olhoff, Chief Scientific Editor of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: promote sustaining peace through common development.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden hosted the annual National Thanksgiving Turkey pardoning ceremony at the White House.

• The US Congress is out this week – the first time both chambers have been out for ten weeks.

• The Halifax International Security Forum is being held in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US CB Leading Index (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Peru GDP (Q3)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Marshall Islands holds parliamentary elections and a Constitutional referendum.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Accounts (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal video conference of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers to discuss a humanitarian pause in Gaza. This will happen as EU High Representative Josef Borrell will visit the region.

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a business delegation will travel to Europe looking to make further inroads into the region's markets. Winning support for South Korea's bid to host World Expo 2030 in the city of Busan will also be among Yoon's top priorities.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. He will also meet the Chairlady of the Council of Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Borjana Krišto. He will hold meetings with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and the Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić. Later that day, Stoltenberg will travel to the Republic of North Macedonia to meet with President Stevo Pendarovski and the Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovačevski.

• The European Economic Area Council meets to discuss the functioning of the European Economic Area Agreement and economic security.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss the EU’s rural areas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a virtual policy panel at 6th annual meeting of Central Bank Research Association’s (CEBRA) International Trade and Macroeconomic program joint with the 5th annual meeting of CEBRA’s International Finance and Macroeconomics program in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture  a speech entitled “A Measure of Wheat for a Penny: Food Price Inflation in Historical Perspective.” 

• Eurozone Construction Output (September)

• Germany PPI (October), Bundesbank Monthly Report

• Greece Current Account (September)

• Slovakia Unemployment (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Central Government Debt

• Israel Unemployment (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The G20 Compact with Africa Conference will be held in Berlin, Germany, hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• The East Africa Regional Tourism Expo will be held in Nairobi, Kenya. The Expo showcases the various diverse tourism opportunities in the continent.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on peace and security in Africa and a briefing on Ukraine in the afternoon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US FMOC Meeting Minutes Released, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October), Redbook (November 18), Existing Home Sales (October)

• Canada Inflation (October), New Housing Price Index (October), CPI (October)

• Paraguay PPI (October)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea PPI (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock participates in a panel discussion at the ASIC Annual Forum in Melbourne, Australia.

• Reserve Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting

• Hong Kong Inflation (October)

• Indonesia Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) to discuss to the situation in Ukraine, aid to Palestine, implementation of the Gender Action Plan III, and follow-up to the EU-CELAC Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the high-level public discussion "Inflation kills democracy" on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the currency reform in Germany in 1923 organized by the German Ministry of Finance in Berlin, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at the International Economic Policy Lecture conference organized by the University of Würzburg in Würzburg, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a talk at  the Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2023: The New Monetary Order, organized by Oliver Wyman.

• UK Labor Productivity (Q3), Public Sector Borrowing (October)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October), Employment Growth (October), PPI (October)

• Slovakia PPI (October), Unemployment (September)

• Hungary Unemployment (October), Base Rate

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (November), M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Global

• A G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually and will be hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The meeting will give leaders a chance to discuss successes and ongoing challenges to issues discussed at the G20 Summit in India recently.  On December 1, Brazil assumes the chair of the G20 for 2024.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the situation in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Durable Goods Orders (October), MBA Mortgage Index (November 17), Initial Jobless Claims (November 18),  Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech before the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce in New Brunswick.

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (October), Wholesale Sales (October)

• Mexico Retail Sales (September)

• Argentina Economic Activity (September), Leading Indicator (October)

• Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney, Australia

• Singapore GDP (Q3)

• Taiwan Unemployment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Netherlands holds parliamentary elections.  Polls suggest races are very close, and a clear winner may take time to sort out.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech and participates in a panel discussion at "Macroeconomic Zeitenwende: How to Achieve Monetary and Financial Stability in the Green Transition" organized by Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin, Germany.

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)

• UK Fiscal Update (UK Chancellor Jeremy Hung will lay out tax and spending plans), CBI Industrial Trends Outlook (November)

• Italy Construction Output (September)

• Poland Retail Sales (October)

• Slovakia Consumer Confidence (November),  Current Account (September)

• Russia PPI

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

• Lebanon Inflation (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation (October)

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Global

• Today is an official holiday at the UN Headquarters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• It is the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. Banks and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (November)

• Colombia Business Account (October)

• Peru Current Account (Q3), Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Judo Bank Services PMI (November)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Singapore Current Account (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Canada Summit takes place through November 24 in Saint John’s, Canada.  Leaders will underscore EU-Canada's shared commitment to democratic values, multilateralism, and the international rules-based order as the bedrock of their relationship.

• The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through November 24.

• Brussels Airlines plans to go on strike for an indefinite period of time.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the "Anniversary dinner" of Porto Business School in Porto, Portugal.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs(November)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

• France Business Confidence (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI (November)

• Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Israel Manufacturing Production (September), Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Business Confidence (Q4)

Friday, November 24, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

• Canada Budget Balance (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)

• Mexico GDP (Q3), Economic Activity (September),  Current Account (Q3)

• Chile PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are set to hold their first trilateral meeting since 2019 in Busan, South Korea. The meeting comes following delays caused by issues such as the coronavirus pandemic. The meeting will take place at a time when Seoul and Tokyo are moving closer to the U.S.

• Today is the deadline for Taiwanese presidential candidates to finalize their registration in order to run in the January 13, 2024 elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation (October), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

• India FX Reserves (November 17)

• Singapore Industrial Production (October)

• Malaysia Inflation (October), Coincident Index (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a youth event, "Euro 20+ (Euro)pa der Zukunft" organized by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by a Q&A session at XVIII Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

• Germany GDP (Q3), Ifo Business Climate (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

• Hungary Unemployment (October)

• Spain PPI (October)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (November)

• Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Saturday, November 25, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar will announce the preliminary results of its presidential elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

• OPEC+ meets to consider output production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

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