Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

November 20 - 24, 2023

Washington has gone quiet this week in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday.  There are no major regulatory speeches, meetings, or other events of note this week.   

But enjoy the calm and peace this week because when greater Washington comes back to work next week, expect a growing bipartisan chorus of members of Congress calling for FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to step down following revelations by the Wall Street Journal he may have tolerated long-term toxic work conditions at the agency.   We expect Gruenberg to fight back hard against the allegations.

 Gruenberg was first nominated to serve on the FDIC Board in 2005.  He then was nominated to become chair in 2011 by President Obama and then, in an unusual move, stayed on the Board after Obama’s term in office ended.  Gruenberg then helped spearhead an ugly and partisan effort to push out his successor so he could again regain the chair – an event which soured many members of Congress on him.  Coupled with this is lingering criticism of the FDIC’s role in the oversight of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and other banks that collapsed earlier this year. In short, Washington has a long memory, and the political knives are now back out, and they are coming for Gruenberg.  

The implications of Gruenberg stepping down would be significant: A Republican (Travis Hill) serves as Vice Chair of the FDIC and would step in as Acting Chair until a new Chair is nominated and confirmed – something that probably would not happen in 2024 in advance of the elections. Gruenberg’s departure would also leave the FDIC Board politically split between two Republicans and two Democrats, likely freezing multiple regulatory efforts Gruenberg, the Biden Administration, and leading Congressional Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have been pushing on capital requirements, raising the deposit insurance fees, CRA, and other contentious issues.

Below is the (very sparse) regulatory calendar for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.  And we hope you have a wonderful and restful Thanksgiving!

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

  • Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

U.S. Senate

  • Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

  • The Federal Open Market Committee minutes are released on Tuesday.  But beyond this, no significant speeches, policy events, or meetings are scheduled.

 

U.S. Treasury Department

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Securities and Exchange Commission

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

No significant events are scheduled.

 

National Credit Union Administration

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Farm Credit Administration

  • ·The FCA announced last week that the deadline for submitting input on the Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation's draft strategic plan has been extended from November 21 to November 28.

 

 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 

Trade Associations

Think Tanks

 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

November 13 - 17, 2023

Bank regulators will testify before the House and Senate on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  Watch for fireworks around the Federal Reserve’s new capital requirement proposal and recent modifications to the Community Reinvestment Act regulations as members of Congress are likely to ramp up sharp criticism of both efforts. 

Feeding into this line of attack will be the speech Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gave last week rather harshly criticizing the capital standards as unnecessary and suggesting other regulatory efforts by the Fed (read: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr) are outside the scope of the Federal Reserve’s legal mandate.

 Also, this coming week, Fed Vice Chair Barr and FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will speak virtually on a panel hosted by the EU-based Systemic Risk Council entitled “Banking sector turbulences; Lessons Learnt for Supervision and Regulation.”  This is one of the first times the two regulators responsible for the Silicon Valley Bank crisis and other recent bank closings will speak together about what worked – and what did not.

Speaking of the FDIC, they will meet this week to formally approve a new assessment on banks as part of recent regulatory efforts post-Silicon Valley Bank. 

Finally, we will watch the New York Federal Reserve’s 2023 U.S. Treasury Market Conference in New York.  Speakers will include U.S. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams, and several senior regulatory officials.

Below is the full regulatory calendar for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

 

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

 

U.S. Senate

 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

 

Joint Regulatory Agency Event

  • November 16: The New York Federal Reserve Bank will host the 2023 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.  Speakers will include U.S. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams, and a number of senior regulatory officials.

 

Federal Reserve Board

  • November 13, 8:50 a.m. – US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give introductory remarks at the Federal Reserve Board 5th Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics in Washington, D.C.

  • November 14, 10:00 a.m. – US Federal Reserve Board Chair Michael Barr will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at a hearing entitled “Hearing on Oversight of the Financial Regulators.”  Also testifying with Barr will be Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; Todd Harper, Chair, National Credit Union Administration; and Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

  • November 14:  U.S. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on a panel at the 7th Annual Conference on Systemic Risk (virtual) on a panel entitled “Banking sector turbulences; Lessons Learnt for supervision and regulation” at the 7th Annual Conference on Systemic Risk (virtual).  Joining him on the panel will be Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of Banco de España, Chair of the ESRB Advisory Technical Committee and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (who will chair the panel),  Martin Gruenberg, Chair of the FDIC, Stephen Cecchetti, Chair of the ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee, Professor and Rosen Family Chair in International Finance, Brandeis International Business School, Mathias Dewatripont, Professor, Université libre de Bruxelles,  Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board, European Central Bank Banking Supervision.

     

  • November 16, 10:30 a.m. – U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on ‘Central Bank Digital Currency” at the 2nd Conference on the Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency by the Bank of Canada and Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden.

  • November 16, 9:25. a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the in 2023 U.S. Treasury Markets Conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  • November 16, 7:00 a.m. – U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks on “Global Linkages and Spillovers” at Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference – Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World, San Francisco, California

  • November 17 (Frankfurt, Germany): San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to give closing keynote before the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

 

U.S. Treasury Department

  • No significant policy events are scheduled.

 

Securities and Exchange Commission

  • No significant policy events are scheduled.

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

  • November 13: The CFTC Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee will meet in Washington, D.C.   

  • November 13, 12:05 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta Economics Club (a monthly lunch series)  in Atlanta, Georgia.

  • November 14 – 16: The CFTC  will host a Career Forum for College, University, and Law School Students and Recent Graduates in Washington,. D.C.

  • November 15: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the Financial Markets Quality Conference 2023 hosted by the Psaros Center at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business in Washington, D.C.

  • November 15, 3:15 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a Regulatory and Policy Roundtable at the Financial Markets Quality Conference at Georgetown’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy in Washington, D.C.

  • November 16, 10:00 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will deliver a keynote address at the Consumer Federation of America’s Financial Services Conference in Washington, D.C.

  • November 16, 1:20 p.m. (Singapore Time) – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “Are investors backing the digital assets ecosystem? A policy and investor dialogue” at the Singapore Fintech Festival.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • November 16, 10: 00 a.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors he Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Board of Directors will meet to consider the following matters:

    • Memorandum and resolution re: Final Rule on Special Assessment Pursuant to Systemic Risk Determination.

    • Briefing on the Restoration Plan Semiannual Update.

 

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • No significant policy events are scheduled.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

  • November 14, 1:00 p.m. – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a meeting by teleconference of the Consumer Advisory Board to discuss broad policy matters related to the bureau's unified regulatory agenda and general scope of authority

  • November 15, 1:00 p.m. – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a meeting by teleconference of the Community Bank Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the bureau's unified regulatory agenda and general scope of authority.

  • November 16, 1:00 p.m. –  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a meeting by teleconference of the Credit Union Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the bureau's unified regulatory agenda and general scope of authority.

 

National Credit Union Administration

  • No significant policy events are scheduled.

 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

  • No significant policy events are scheduled.

 

Farm Credit Administration

  • No significant policy events are scheduled.

 

 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 

Trade Associations

 

Think Tanks

  • Nothing significant to report. 

  

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

November 10 - 12, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Russia

  • “Be Careful What You Wish For Putin’s Replacement Might Not Be Better”   Stimson Center

    Crumbling autocratic regimes usually spawn authoritarian successors, not a turn towards liberal democracy. This has been the case for other dictators who were overthrown, such as Egypt’s Mubarak, now under military rule, or Venezuela’s Chavez, who was replaced by Maduro. With popular approval still high, Putin will most likely be re-elected next year and continue to rule Russia for the foreseeable future. Only death, a debilitating disease, or a humiliating rout on the battlefield would cause his ouster. It is a risk to assume Putin’s successor would be more likely to end the war in Ukraine or more likely to espouse liberal values.

 

  • “Putin’s Cannon Fodder”  Foreign Affairs Interview

    In this audio interview, Dara Massicot, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains that in Ukraine, where war with Russia grinds on, the dominant question has become: Can one side outlast the other? This is especially true as both sides face another grueling winter. One thing Russia has in ample supply is men. But how it treats its soldiers is having an effect on the battlefield.

  

The Middle East

  • “Five Questions About Gaza”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle Eastern Center

    Middle Eastern scholar Nathan Brown looks at the ongoing Gaza military operation and suggests the question is not “tell me how this end” but “tell me how this will evolve.”  And that the answers are still a bit hazy. He argues many of the uncertainties are known: What will Israel actually accomplish? How many more people will die? How serious are the growing signs of U.S.-Israel tension? But to know more about likely trajectories, he tries to answer five questions that may only be answered by events.

 

  • “Israel Could Lose”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

    Most discussions about the war in Gaza assume that, in the end, Israel will win. The stakes are so high for Israel, and Israel’s edge over Hamas is so large that any outcome other than victory is unthinkable. The only questions are in what timeframe and at what cost. And yet it is quite possible that the war in Gaza will be the first war in Israel’s history that the army has fought and lost. That loss would be catastrophic for Israel and deeply damaging to the United States. Precisely because of that, it must be considered.

 

China

  • “Can China Catch Up with Greece?”  New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Liberty Street Economics Blog

    China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even given generous assumptions concerning future growth fundamentals, China appears likely to close only a fraction of the gap with high-income countries in the years ahead.

  

Economics and Business


 

List of the Week 

Number of China’s Wealthy Falls Amid Property Crisis 

The number of Chinese individuals worth more than 5 billion yuan ($690 million) has fallen 15% from its peak in 2021, reflecting the property crisis-plagued economic slowdown and competitive e-commerce landscape.  The Shanghai-based Hurun Research Institute recently released a list of China's wealthiest individuals.  All told the total wealth of the 1,241 individuals on the list dropped by 4% to $3.2 trillion compared to last year, with some 898 individuals seeing their worth decline or remain unchanged.  Who are China’s wealthiest? Here is the top ten:

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

November 12 - 19, 2023

The future of US-China relations will be the primary focus this week of markets and much of the rest of the world.  As the APEC Leaders’ Summit commences in San Francisco, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet for four hours later this week.  The range of issues is rather enormous: Trade, mutual security concerns, North Korea, the Ukraine War, the ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza, just to name a few.  While no major breakthroughs or “deliverables” are expected to emerge, just having the two leaders meet is a significant step in repairing an otherwise increasingly tattered bilateral situation between the two nations.

The situations in Gaza and Ukraine will continue to dominate leadership meetings – particularly among EU foreign ministers who will be meeting later this week.  Funding issues for Ukraine will continue to be a dominant point of discussion among Western nations, particularly as the US Congress continues to vacillate between passing a new aid package requested by President Biden or cutting back on funding. 

All of which brings us to the state of play in Congress this week.  Washington is returning to the increasingly common crisis mode over budgetary affairs as the Federal Government faces a shutdown at midnight on November 17.  Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is expected to push for a “laddered” set of Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to keep the government open as they try to pass appropriations bills – a confusing concept, but as we understand it, each time an appropriation bill gets passed by the House and Senate, an extension of the CR would be made available.  Sort of like holding a carrot on a stick in front of a donkey to get it to pull the cart.  But none of this may come to pass as a growing number of House Republicans are lining up to oppose such an approach as the civil war within the Republican Party continues to fester.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Biden-Xi meeting may be the single biggest economic indicator of the week.  Beyond that, markets will be watching as China publishes its industrial production and retail sales reports as well as its 1-year MLF rate announcement.

Markets will also be looking at the US CPI print and retail sales report this week to see if inflation is indeed coming down and staying down. There will also be many Fed speeches this week, perhaps most notably a US Treasury Markets Conference hosted by the New York Fed.

In Europe, the UK will also be releasing inflation prints and Germany will be revealing important business sentiment surveys.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Finance ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will meet in San Francisco, California, ahead of the official meeting on Nov. 16-17.

  • Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with the European Roundtable of Industrialist in Stuttgart, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • The Dubai Airshow begins in Dubai, UAE and runs through November 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, November 13, 2023

Global

  • APEC Finance Ministers will meet in San Francisco, California in advance of the leaders meeting this week.

  • OPEC Monthly Report

  • The World Economic Forum Cybersecurity meeting will take place in Geneva Switzerland through November 15.

  • The Web Summit will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.  More than 1000 industry speakers are expected to address the conference, considered the biggest in the world.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. President Joe Biden hosts his Indonesian counterpart, Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, at the White House in Washington. The two leaders will discuss the clean energy transition and advancing economic prosperity, among other issues, according to the White House. Widodo said he also will repeat a call for a cease-fire and delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza during the meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give introductory remarks at the Federal Reserve Board 5th Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics, Washington, D.C.

  • US Consumer Inflation Expectations (October), Monthly Budget Statement

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

  • Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2023 Summit is held through November 14 in San Francisco, California.

  • Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Asia-Pacific Climate Week 2023, a meeting taking place ahead of COP28, which will be held in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, from Monday through Friday.

  • Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe is due to present the country's budget for next year.  This will be a particularly challenging budget cycle as the island nation faces stiff pressure from the IMF to stick to austere budgets to meet IMF conditions while the nation’s citizens are getting increasingly exhausted by the draconian measures put into place already.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan PPI (October), Machine Tool Orders (October)

  • India Inflation (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Acting Assistant Governor Maron Kohler will give a speech at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney, Australia.

  • New Zealand Composite NZI PCI (October),Services NZI PSI (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Catherine Mann gives a speech at Oxford University entitled “Climate and monetary policy. In particular on transition policies and their macroeconomic effects and monetary policy’ implications.”

  • Germany Current Account (September)

  • Ireland Construction PMI (October)

  • Romania Inflation (October), Current Account (September)

  • Hungary Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Slovakia Construction Output (September)

  • Serbia Inflation (October)

  • Poland Current Account (September), Balance of Trade (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Independence Day is traditionally celebrated in West Bank and Gaza by Palestinians.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Current (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Budget Balance (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Tech Festival will be held in Cape Town, South Africa. Speakers are expected to include the country’s minister of digital technology and Guinea’s minister of digital economy. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Angola Inflation (October)

  • Mozambique Inflation (October) 

 

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • U.S Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech at the Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility (virtual)

  • US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Washington, D.C.

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give brief opening remarks before virtual "Conversations on Central Banking: The Unequal Burden of Inflation" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in conversation on the economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

  • US Inflation (October), CPI (October), NFIB Business Optimism Index (October), Redbook (November 11)

  • Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Argentina Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to meet his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in San Francisco, California.  While the meeting will be seen by markets as significant step to improving relations, no major announcements or breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting.

  • ASEAN Defense ministers will meet in Jakarta as tensions rise over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The bloc will also hold the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus on Thursday, with eight "dialogue partner" countries, including the U.S., China, Japan, and India.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • India WPI Food Index (October),WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October),WPI Manufacturing (October)

  • South Korea Import and Export Prices (October)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November), NAB Business Confidence (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Liberia will hold a presidential runoff election.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Unemployment (Q3)

 

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 1267/1989/2253 Committee, the 1373 Committee, and the 1540 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Rupert Murdoch will step down as Chair of News Corporation.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.

  • US PPI (October), Retail Sales (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 10), Retail Inventories (September), NOPA Crush Report

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (September),New Motor Vehicles Sales (September),Wholesale Sales (September)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Peru GDP (September), Unemployment (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Production (October),Retail Sales (Q3), Industrial Production (October), Unemployment (October), People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • Japan GDP (Q3), Capacity Utilization (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (October)

  • France Unemployment (Q3), Inflation (October)

  • Italy Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • UK Inflation (October), PPI (October), Retail Price Index (October)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (September)

  • Slovakia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Bulgaria Inflation (October)

  • Poland Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

  • Montenegro Inflation (September)

  • Serbia Building Permits (September), Current Account (September)

  • Russia GDP (Q3)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Production (October), Budget Balance (October)

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation (October),

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (October),Wholesale Prices (October)

  • Egypt Unemployment (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

 

Thursday, November 16, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil Pinto will hold talks in Moscow, Russia. 

  • The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will meet to vote on the “special assessment” that banks will be charged to replenish the deposit fund following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research will host their eleventh annual financial stability conference through November 17. This year’s conference, Financial Stability in Times of Macroeconomic Uncertainty, will be held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Virtual attendance is also available. Panelists will discuss risks to financial stability from a range of sources including uninsured deposits, the commercial real estate market, and climate risk exposures of insurers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech on Global Linkages and Spillovers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference – Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World, San Francisco, California

  • US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a panel discussion on bank supervision and regulation at the Seventh Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (virtual).

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller give a speech on Central Bank Digital Currency at the 2nd Conference on the Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency by the Bank of Canada and Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the in 2023 U.S. Treasury Markets Conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr will participate.

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give introductory remarks before hybrid 2023 Financial Stability Conference: "Financial Stability in Times of Macroeconomic Uncertainty" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • US Import and Exports Prices (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November 11), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (November), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (November), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Manufacturing Production (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (November)

  • Canada Housing Starts (October)

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

  • Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China House Price Index (October0

  • Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Employment (October)

  • Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMIs (October)

  • Hong Kong Unemployment (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Inflation (October)

  • Israel GDP (Q3)

  • Turkey Financial Stability Report, FX Reserves (November 10)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Madagascar will hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (October)

  • South Africa Building Permits (September)

 

Friday, November 17, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. federal government will shut down at midnight if Congress does not approve a new budget or temporary Continuing Resolution (CR) in time.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to give closing keynote before the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee to speak on the economy before Annual Community Bankers Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  • US Building Permits (October), Housing Starts (October)

  • Canada PPI (October), Raw Materials Prices (October)

  • Chile GDP (Q3)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan, until Nov. 20.

  • India's Madhya Pradesh state will hold assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Bank Loan Growth(November 3), Deposit Growth (November 3)

  • New Zealand PPIs (Q3)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (Q3)

  • Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will give a keynote speech at the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress "Navigating in a World at Risk of Fragmentation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in an online round table on the digital euro organized by the Greens/EFA in the European Parliament.

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will give the keynote at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London.

  • The Frankfurt European Banking Conference will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Eurozone Current Account (September), Inflation (October),  CPI (October)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (September)

  • UK Retail Sales (October)

  • Italy Current Account (September)

  • Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • The 2nd European Union-Angola Business Forum will be held in Luanda, Angola.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola FX Reserves (October), M3 Money Supply (October) 

 

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Foreign Direct Investment (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Latvia celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day the country declared independence from Russia in 1918 – which they did again 72 years late when the Soviet Union broke up.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing signficant to report.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Sunday, November 19, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

November 5 - 12, 2023

This week, markets will focus heavily on the APEC Summit in San Francisco, California.  It begins at the end of the week, and President Biden will have a bilateral side meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While no significant diplomatic or trade breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting, it will be seen by markets as further solidification of the "floor" that is being built under U.S.-China relations, which have been in a spiral for several years.   But we will also be watching to see if rumored diplomatic meetings begin this week, as well, between U.S. and Chinese diplomats on a nuclear arms control agreement.

The Israeli-Gaza War continues to grip the attention of the world, and it will be the focus of numerous other meetings around the world this week.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Seoul, South Korea, and Japan for the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting, and then India for the India-US 2+2 meetings (with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin), where the situation in Gaza will be a primary focus as well as the ongoing Ukraine War.   We would also note that an emergency meeting of the Arab League will take place later this week at the request of the Palestinian Authority to find a way to bring peace.

The European Union will release a report this week assessing the status of several nations seeking E.U. membership, most notably Ukraine.  The report will likely recommend moving forward with Ukrainian integration into the EU.

In the U.S., Tuesday will see several states holding elections, most notably in Virginia, where Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin seeks to win Republican control of the State Senate.  Many observers believe that if Younkin's efforts are successful – entirely flipping Virginia from being a completely Democratic-controlled state to a completely Republican state at the governor's, Lt. Governors, Attorney Generals, Virginia State House of Delegates, and the State Senate – we may see him move to jump into the Presidential campaign.  All this happens as current Republican presidential candidates gather in Miami for the 3rd presidential debates.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching China inflation data being released Thursday, along with significant data releases from Japan and meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and several other central banks.  The U.S. is light on economic data this week, but we will see several Fed Governors giving significant speeches on the economic outlook.  Other leading central bankers – including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, along with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda – will be speaking at various conferences this week, as well.

 Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.  

 

Monday, November 6, 2023

Global

  • New York Federal Reserve Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

  • The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will launch the flagship report "The State of Food and Agriculture 2023", which will be held under the theme "Revealing the true cost of food to transform agri-food systems"

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US and China may begin formal nuclear weapons arms control talks.  This has yet to be confirmed.

  • The Milken Institute hosts the 2023 Future of Health Summit through November 8 in Washington, D.C.  Leading healthcare CEOs and government officials are scheduled to speak.

  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to appear on the witness stand in his New York fraud trial.

  • The Dominican Republic celebrates Constitution Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech at Duke University on Financial Stability in Durham, North Carolina.

  • Canada Ivey PMI (October)

  • Brazil Current Account (September), FDI (September)

  • Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

  • The 32nd  Pacific Islands Forum begins in the Cook Islands. This is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to enhance cooperation between the territories and countries of Oceania.  Climate change, trade, and mutual security are the top items on the agenda.

  • Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia. Hosted by the government of Malaysia, the conference is a regional collaboration platform to provide region-focused efforts on energy systems and industry; cities, urban and rural settlements, infrastructure, and transport; land, ocean, food, and water; societies, health, and livelihoods; and economies.

  • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority Finance Summit begins and runs through November 7. Top global bankers and asset managers from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BlackRock, Sequoia China, and alike will be attending Hong Kong's second global financial leaders' investment summit. Participants are invited to a welcome dinner before the event's official start on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank PMIs (October)

  • Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (October)

  • Indonesia GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand Inflation (October)

  • Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • European Council President Charles Michel, EU President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola participate in the EU Ambassadors Conference 2023.

  • EU Ministers who are responsible for space programs hold an informal meeting through November 7 in Sevilla, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Germany Factory Orders (September), HCOB PMIs (October)

  • France HCOB PMIs (September)

  • UK New Car Sales (October), S&P/CIPS Construction PMI (October)

  • Spain HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Italy HCOB PMIs (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Amman, Jordan, to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and the Republic of Senegal will hear the preliminary ruling on the dissolution of his political party in the Ecowas Court of Justice on Monday.

  • Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kubela will visit South Africa on Monday. He’ll meet with foreign affairs minister Naledi Pandor in Pretoria.  South Africa has been supportive of Russia’s war efforts and has been accused on several occasions of supplying weapons to Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Global

  • G7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Tokyo through November 8.  The Israel-Hamas War will be the dominant issue, as well as the Ukraine War.

  • The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) launches the Least Development Countries Report 2023. This annual report provides a comprehensive and authoritative source of socio-economic analysis and data on the world´s most impoverished countries.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on financial technology at the 7th Annual DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Using Economic Data to Understand the Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Conference: Beyond the Numbers 2023 in St. Louis, Missouri.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on financial stability at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference 2023: Achieving Good Outcomes in an Uncertain World, Dublin 4, Ireland

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams is the moderator of a hybrid discussion organized by the Economic Club of New York.

  • Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give opening keynote before the "Energy and the Economy: Reshuffling the Energy Deck" conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.  At the conference luncheon, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will speak.

  • US Imports/Exports (September), Redbook (November 4), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November), Total Household Debt (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (September), Used Car Prices (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)

  • The Bank of Canada hosts its annual John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture. Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, CBB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (September), Gross Debt to GDP (September), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

  • Mexico Auto Exports & Production (October)

  • Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (October)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Elections in two Indian states (Mizoram and Chhattisgarsh) begins today with a second round of voting on November 17.  These are highly competitive races and will help shape the 2024 national general elections.

  • The 6th India-Malaysia Joint Commission Meeting is scheduled to take place in New Delhi. Representatives of the two countries will discuss  the progress of their "enhanced strategic partnership" in areas such as defense, trade and investment, health and technology. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Malaysian counterpart Zambry Abdul Kadir are set to co-chair the meeting.

  • Nikkei and Swiss Business School IMD host a two-day Global Management Dialogue in Tokyo.  Business leaders – including the CEOs of Morgan Stanley, Intel, and other major corporations will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Japan Household Spending (September)

  • Taiwan Inflation (October)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

  • Philippines Inflation (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (October)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

  • Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Jordanian King Hussein in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Israel.

  • In Brussels, train staff will go on strike through November 9 over pay.

  • King Charles to conduct his first state opening of the UK Parliament as monarch.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

  • Israel Business Confidence (October)

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Liberia holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa FX Reserves (October)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision  

 

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Republican Presidential candidates gather in Miami, Florida, for the 3rd Presidential Debate.  To qualify for the debate, candidates must have at least 4 percent in two national polls or 4 percent in one national poll as well as 4 percent in at least two early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders (NAAHL) – Annual Policy & Practice Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives closing remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give a keynote before the hybrid event, "Research and Statistics at 100: A Look at the Past, Present, and Future" organized by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 3), Wholesale Inventories (September)

  • Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

  • Brazil Retail Sales (September), Car Production (October)

  • Chile Inflation (October)

  • Ecuador Inflation (October)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda participates in a discussion with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference in London.

  • China FX Reserves (October)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (November), FX Reserves (October), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

  • South Korea Current Account (September)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations (Q4)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Philippines FX Reserves (October)

  • Malaysia Construction Output (Q3), Unemployment (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with Hungarian President Kataalin Novák at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Novák has said “Hungary is no rush” to ratify Sweden’s bid to join NATO, the last member to hold out.

  • The EU Commission is expected to release a report on the progress of several countries – including Ukraine – toward achieving EU membership.   This will lead to a decision by the European Commission on December 14 on which countries to grant admission.  Aside from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are leading candidates.

  • In the UK, a ban on the use of laughing gas will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel FX Reserves (October), Budget Balance (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Africa Investment Forum’s annual Market Days begins and runs through November 10.  It will bring together investors, business and government leaders, and heads of development finance institutions in Marrakech, Morocco

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Tanzania Inflation (October) 

 

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on the importance of surveys and how the survey data informs the economic outlook and policy views before the Central Bank Business Survey Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's New Orleans Branch.

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to discuss virtually the "Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Policy" in a Market News International webinar.

  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Interim President Kathleen O'Neill Paese to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before an event co-sponsored by the Association for Corporate Growth Kentucky, Financial Executives International Louisville, and CFA Society Louisville.

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (November 4), WASDE Report, US Crop Report

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

  • Paraguay Inflation (October)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The US and India will hold the US-India 2+2 Meetings in New Delhi.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Indian counterparts, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Secretary Rajnath Singh, to discuss the situation in Israel and Ukraine.

  • Cambodia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  It commemorates the country’s independence from France in 1953.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (October), PPI (October)

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Japan Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October), Eco Watchers Survey (October)

  • Philippines GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September)

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

  • Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) Development Bank in Berlin, Germany.

  • Today is the 85th  anniversary of the pogrom against the country’s Jewish population, known as Reichskristallnacht or the Night of Broken Glass. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will give a speech in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting agenda includes a review of economic governance, the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Faculty.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives opening remarks (virtual) at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany,.

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (October)

  • Italy CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (September), Budget Balance (October)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (September)

  • Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (September)

  • Serbia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Russia FX Reserves (October)

  • Ukraine Inflation (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (November 3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (September), Mining Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

 

Friday, November 10, 2023

Global

Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Veterans Day is observed in the U.S. a federal holiday.

  • Panama celebrates “Primer Grito de Indepencia,” a public holiday.  It commemorates the first call for national independence in 1821.

  • The U.S. Marine Corps celebrates its birthday day, having been established by the Continental Congress in 1775.  OORAH!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on "Economic Mobility and Challenges in the Community" before the Mobile Chamber of Commerce, Mobile, Alabama.

  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

  • Brazil Inflation (October), Business Confidence (November)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (September)

  • El Salvador PPI (October), Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (Interest Rate Decision)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)

  • Philippines FDI (August)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times' Global Boardroom 2023 in London, UK.

  • UK GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Balance of Trade (September), NIERS Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

  • Italy Industrial Production (September)

  • Greece Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (September)

  • Hungary Inflation (October)

  • Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Slovenia Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Bulgaria Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Kosovo Inflation (October)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (September), Inflation (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (October)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September)

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Global

  • The U.S. hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in San Francisco.

  • Today is Remembrance Day (also known as Poppy Day), observed by Commonwealth nations, commemorating the end of World War I.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Vehicle Sales (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Angola celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  The day celebrates the country’s victory over Portuguese military forces and the establishment of the new government in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

November 6 - 10, 2023

It is another busy week ahead on the U.S. financial regulatory front.  Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr makes two more speeches this week, both in defense of the Fed’s recent rulemaking changes to the Community Reinvestment Act.  Barr gave two speeches last week in defense of the changes, and this coming week, he will be joined by Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, who will also give a speech defending the change.  Clearly, regulators are anticipating legal challenges to the regulations and are making a full-throated public defense of them.

Also, this week, SIFMA holds its annual conference in Washington.  Most of the major financial regulatory heads will be speaking, and we expect some news to emerge on various regulatory issues.  The SIFMA event is being held while the D.C. FinTech Week conference is being held, where regulators – including SEC Chair Gary Gensler, Vice Chair Barr, and OCC Acting Chair Hsu – will shuttle over to speak on their respective policy agenda in the fintech space (and in Barr and Hsu’s case, likely again defend the Community Reinvestment Act regulatory changes).

Looking at Congress this week, the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing on U.S. regulators working in the international sphere and what impact it is having on the autonomy of U.S. regulation.  Over in the Senate, the Budget Committee and Finance Committee each hold hearings focused on tax policy, wealthy individuals, and cracking down on their ability to avoid higher taxes.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

 

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

o   Mr. Thomas Hoenig, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Mercatus Center, George Mason University

o   Professor Christina Parajon Skinner, Assistant Professor of Legal Studies & Business Ethics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

o   Mr. Bryan Bashur, Director of Financial Policy, Americans for Tax Reform

o   Ms. Renita Marcellin, Advocacy and Legislative Director, Americans for Financial Reform

 

 

U.S. Senate

o   Dr. Natasha Sarin, Professor Of Law And Finance, Yale Law School & Yale School Of Management

o   Dr. Nathaniel Hendren, Professor Of Economics and Co-Founder Of Policy Impacts, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology

o   Mr. Chris Edwards, Kilts Family Chair In Fiscal Studies, Cato Institute

 

o   Chye-Ching Huang, Director, Tax Law Center, New York University School of Law

o   Morris Pearl, Chair, Patriotic Millionaires

o   William McBride, Ph.D., Vice President Of Federal Tax Policy And Stephen J. Entin Fellow In Economics, Tax Foundation

o   Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Ph.D., President, American Action Forum

 

 

U.S. Regulatory Meetings & Events

 

Federal Reserve Board

U.S. Treasury Department

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Securities and Exchange Commission

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

  • November 6, 9:00 a.m. – The  CFTC holds a meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee.  The agenda includes:

Presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving U.S. Treasury market reforms, global standards and best practices for market volatility controls and circuit breakers, improving liquidity across asset classes, and international alignment of trading and clearing obligations to address market fragmentation, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Technical Issues Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving international standardization and amalgamation of trade reporting for swaps market oversight, global coordination of market events, and improving efficiencies in post-trade processes, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving industry standards and best practices for tokenized asset markets, the regulation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and utility tokens, and identification of other issues to address in digital finance and tokenization of assets, non-financial activities and Web3, and blockchain technology and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams.

  • November 8, 9:25 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the 7th  Annual DC Fintech Week Conference in Washington, D.C.

  • November 8, 4:20 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a fireside chat with FinCEN’s Kevin O’Connor at TRM Labs’ Crypto Law Enforcement Summit in Washington, D.C.

  • November 10, 11:00 a.m. (South Korea) – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat titled “Proposals for Innovation of Digital Asset Regulation” at the Blockchain Week in Busan 2023.

  • November 11, 10:50 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a bipartisan panel, Explore Pathways to Pursue a Presidential Appointment, at the 2023 National Asian Pacific American Bar Association (NABAPA) Convention in Indianapolis, Indiana.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • November 7, 10:20 a.m. – Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will participate in a conversation with Bloomberg TV host Romaine Bostick at the DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

 

  • November 8, 2:00 p.m. – Acting Comptroller Michael J. Hsu will participate in a panel discussion on the Community Reinvestment Act during the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders Annual Policy & Practice Conference in Washington, D.C.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

National Credit Union Administration

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Farm Credit Administration

  • November 9, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to hear the report of the Office of Equal Employment Opportunity and Inclusion Report Concerning Native Americans and Veterans.  They will then move to vote on the Conservators and Receivers Final Rule.

  

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 

Trade Associations

 

Think Tanks

 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

November 3 - 5, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Middle East

  • “Why Russia and Hamas Are Growing Closer”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    The Kremlin purports to take a hard stance on terrorism. Yet since the massacre in southern Israel carried out by Hamas militants on October 7, it has only grown closer to the group.  Moscow’s relationship with the militant group Hamas is part of a Middle East strategy meant to boost its standing in the Global South: an effort that has long involved building ties with both Israel and its sworn enemies.

 

  • “What Can the IDF Do about Hamas Tunnels?”  The Urban Warfare Project Podcast

    As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a ground campaign in Gaza, the threat of Hamas tunnels  - estimated to be as much as 600 miles long – will be one of the most significant challenges to contend with. But how many of these tunnels are there? What can Israeli forces do about the tunnels when they encounter them? In this episode, host John Spencer talks to Dr. Daphne Richemond-Barak, the world’s preeminent expert on tunnel warfare. She is a professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy at Reichman University, author of the book Underground Warfare, and creator of the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare.

 

  • “The Persian-Russian Connection”  Lawfare

    Tehran’s ties to Russia are growing, making Iran a stronger force in the region and increasing the danger it poses to the United States and its allies. From Tehran’s perspective, an informal alliance with Russia is ideologically and historically odd, but it is strategically enticing. Iran and Russia have been rivals for almost two centuries, and Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, hated the Soviet Union almost as much as he hated the United States. Moscow’s interest in Tehran is a bit harder to explain. It starts with a range of common interests that are generally anti-U.S., opposed to democratic values, and wary of Sunni Muslim fundamentalism. 

 

  • “The Decolonization Narrative Is Dangerous and False”  The Atlantic

    It does not accurately describe either the foundation of Israel or the tragedy of the Palestinians. The decolonization narrative has dehumanized Israelis to the extent that otherwise rational people excuse, deny, or support barbarity. It holds that Israel is an “imperialist-colonialist” force, that Israelis are “settler-colonialists,” and that Palestinians have a right to eliminate their oppressors. (On October 7, we all learned what that meant.) It casts Israelis as “white” or “white-adjacent” and Palestinians as “people of color.”  This ideology, powerful in the academy but long overdue for serious challenge, is a toxic, historically nonsensical mix of Marxist theory, Soviet propaganda, and traditional anti-Semitism from the Middle Ages and the 19th century. 

 

China 

  • “China Expands Its Political Influence in Russia East of the Urals”  The Jamestown Foundation

    Beijing is increasing its political influence in Siberia and the Russian Far East to better support its expanding economic activities. These efforts are directed at the political and business elites, who are the major stakeholders in deciding which firms can operate in their respective regions. These tactics have generated both local and regional concerns in Russia. Chinese efforts are generating resistance from the local populations that resent their regional leaders kowtowing to China.

 

Political Economy

  • “The New Economy Security State”  Foreign Affairs

    In the past decade, economics and national security have collided, turning government inside out and upside down. The definition of security has expanded beyond matters related to warfare and terrorism, as previously disregarded economic and environmental problems such as food insecurity, energy shortages, inflation, and climate change have moved to the “very core” of the official U.S. National Security Strategy. To address the new problems of economic security and avoid a downward spiral that could threaten the global economy, U.S. officials must reckon with a major task: nothing less than a transformation of the U.S. government. The past offers the wrong guidance, and the current predicament calls for an exacting reassessment.


  • “Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade”   IMF Working Papers

    Are geopolitical tensions leading to a reversal in globalization? Using U.N. voting patterns from 1948 to 2021 to measure geopolitical similarity, Serhan Cevik of the International Monetary Fund finds that trade relationships were “resilient to occasional shifts in the geopolitical landscape” and that the geopolitical alignment between countries had statistically insignificant effects on their level of trade. The physical distance between countries and their respective levels of income were much more important factors, with proximity and higher incomes predicting increased trade between countries. Cevik argues that despite recent shocks, “the widely used indicators of globalization...have rebounded strongly,” and thus, “there is no systemic retreat in trade globalization due to geopolitical developments.”

 

Chart of the Week

Talking Politics at Work is Increasingly Cool for Gen Z

Bloomberg reported recently how various generations feel about talking about politics at work.  According to a recent survey by Glassdoor, “Gen Z” (those born in the late 1990’s and early 2010’s) are increasingly comfortable bringing up the topic of politics.  According to Glassdoor,  three in five US workers have done so with colleagues over the last year.  Millennials (born in the early 1980s to the early 200’s) and Gen X (born in the late 1960s to early 1980s) feel even more comfortable beating Baby Boomers (born from 1946 to 1964). 

Interestingly, roughly 50 percent of Gen Z workers said they would not apply for a job at a company where the CEO supports a political candidate they disagree with – in contrast with Millennials (40 percent taking that stance) and Gen X and Baby Boomers (both roughly at 30 percent with that view).

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 30 - November 3, 2023

There are four significant events we are watching closely this week.  First, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s is giving not one but two speeches on November 3rd on the Fed’s recent expansion of Community Reinvestment Act regulations.  It is unusual to see the Fed so quickly step out publicly like this to defend and try to explain themselves.  But Barr has good reason to move quickly: Banks are not happy with the move and are likely to file lawsuits to block the rules.

The second significant event this week is happening at the Commodities Futures Trade Commission.  They are holding an open meeting to consider a proposed rule on Investment of Customer Funds by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations.  The draft rule has yet to be released but we will be sending it around as soon as it is published.

The third event is the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s meeting on Friday where they are expected to discuss designations of nonbanks as well as the FSOC’s framework for identifying stability risk. They will then go into a closed meeting to discuss the state of the commercial real estate market.  What is said and done behind closed doors may be more important than the open meeting.

Finally, the fourth event will happen at the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday.  The full committee convenes for a hearing examining SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s aggressive regulatory agenda.   This is all part of a new onslaught of heightened opposition among House Republicans (and more than a few Democrats) to many of Gensler’s proposals, particularly his climate related regulations.  This past week, Gensler spoke at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and suggested he may scale back his initial climate proposals but did not give details.  The Chamber has already indicated their intention to take the SEC to federal court over the climate proposals and many of Gensler’s other proposals.  Gensler even cracked a joke about the coming lawsuits when he was introduced at the event.

There are other important events happening in the regulatory space this week.  Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

  

U.S. Senate

 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

 

U.S. Treasury Department

  • November 3, 1:50 p.m.:  The Financial Stability Oversight Council will hold a public meeting to discuss the designations of nonbanks and its framework for identifying financial stability risks. The council will also hold a closed-door meeting where it plans to discuss topics including the commercial real estate market and oversight of the Treasury market.

 

Securities and Exchange Commission

  • November 2, 2:00 p.m.:  The SEC holds a closed meeting.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • November 2, 9:00 a.m.:  The FDIC’s Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion holds panel discussions on the current environment, including industry and market trends that affect consumer participation in the banking system.

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

  • October 30, 1:00 p.m.:  The CFPB will hold an event entitled, “Data Enforcers Convening: Remedies and Accountability for Data Misuse and Algorithmic Harm.”

  • November 1, 10:00 a.m.: The CFPB’s Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council Appraisal Subcommittee meets to hold its third public hearing on appraisal bias. Witnesses include Robbie Wilson, Chief Appraiser, RSDS LLC, and President, National Society of Real Estate Appraisers, Dean Kelker, Board of Directors, Real Estate Valuation Advocacy Association, Danny Wiley, Senior Director of Single-Family Valuation, Freddie Mac, Lyle E. Radke, Senior Director, Single-Family Collateral Risk, Fannie Mae, Sharon Whitaker, Vice President, CRE & Mortgage Finance, American Bankers Association

 

National Credit Union Administration

  • The NCUA has published the staff draft budget for 2024-2025 in advance of a public briefing on November 16.  You can access the draft budget HERE.

 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

 

Farm Credit Administration

  • No significant events are scheduled.

 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

 

Trade Associations

 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

October 29 - November 5, 2023

The escalating situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the attention of the world and financial markets.  But so are the shocking anti-Israel and, clearly, antisemitic protests that have been held around the world in recent days.  Added that are the tense threats to Israel from Turkey, Iran, and other Middle East countries.  The situation is changing by the hour, and we will offer updates as events warrant.   

Meanwhile, there are a number of other significant geopolitical events to watch this week. President Biden will host a Summit of Latin American leaders on Friday to discuss economic growth and try to find ways to work together better to address migration issues.  Also this week, the UK will host the first AI Safety Summit seeking to better understand the threats AI poses and develop a global framework to mitigate those risks.  We expect the White House to issue an Executive Order on AI in conjunction to the Summit.

Also this week, China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November. This comes as Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who met with President Biden last week, travels to China for a four-day official visit.  It signifies a significant de-escalation of tensions between the two countries following a number of years of retaliatory tariffs and sanctions China placed on Australia.  This is the first time an Australian Prime Minister has visited China since 2016.

Finally, this is the first work week for the newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA).  It will be a tough one as the House begins racing to both figure out how to pass another continuing resolution by November 17 or risk a government shutdown as well as begin moving appropriations bills that must be done by December 31.  If Congress fails to pass all 12 appropriations bills, then a 1 percent across the board cut to federal spending will go into effect in January 2024.

On the global economic front, markets are watching closely as the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to consider interest rates.  While markets do not expect another rate increase, they will be listening carefully to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s post-meeting press conference to get a sense of where the Fed is going next on rates.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also meet this week to consider interest rates.  On top of this, it is a heavy week of economic data reports.  The US reports important job numbers this week while China PMIs and a variety of important data reports from Japan are released.  In the EU, we will be watching GDP numbers from Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

  • G7 Trade Ministers are meeting in Osaka, Japan.

  • As part of his first trip in preparation for COP28, to be held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, UN Secretary-General António Guterres arrives in Nepal at the invitation of the Government.   This will be a visit of solidarity with Nepal, which is the current Chair of the Global Coordination Bureau of the Least Developed Countries.  While in Nepal, the Secretary-General will meet with impacted communities. He is scheduled to have bilateral meetings with President Ramchandra Paudel, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ as well as other senior officials. He will also address a Joint Session of the Parliament.   

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Oman holds elections for their parliament.

  • Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Monday, October 30, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Singapore to meet newly elected President Tharman Shanmugaratnam.  They will also participate in a signing ceremony of a new agreement on investment cooperation. The two nations trade more than $84 billion annually.

  • Hong Kong hosts FinTech Week through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Today is the October Bank Holiday in the UK.  It is a public holiday.

  • Australia Retail Sales (September)

  • Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at the Leadership Forum organized by Instituto de Empresa in Madrid, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the London School of Economics' Financial Markets Group event "Five years of European Banking Supervision and Beyond" in London, United Kingdom.

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sentiment (October), Selling Price Sentiment (October)

  • Germany GDP ()Q3), Inflation (October),

  • UK BoE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Data (September), Net Lending to Individuals (September)

  • Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Spain Inflation (October), Business Confidence (October)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

  • Bulgaria PPI (September), Business Confidence (October)

  • Slovakia Business Confidence (October)

  • Slovenia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Greece PPI (September)

  • Montenegro Balance of Trade (September)

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina Retail Sales (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa M3 Money Supply (September, Private Sector Credit (September)

 

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Employment Cost – Benefits & Wages (Q3), Redbook (October 28), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prides (August), House Price Index (August), Chicago PMI (October), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Dallas Fed Services Index (October),

  • Canada GDP (August & September)

  • Brazil Unemployment (September)

  • Mexico GDP (Q3)

  • Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

  • Uruguay Unemployment (September), Balance of Trade (September)

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October)

  • India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (September)

  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report, Japan Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September),

  • South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q3)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (September), Business Confidence (Q3)

  • Australia Housing Credit (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

  • Philippines PPI (September)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Private Consumption (September), Private Investment (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (September)

  • Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić; and meets with Prime Minister Ana Brnabić in Belgrade.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with Montenegrin President resident Jakov Milatović; and caretaker Prime Minister Dritan Abazović.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and a colloquium with students organized by ICADE University in Spain.

  • Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)

  • France GDP (Q3), Household Consumption (September), Inflation (October), PPI (September)

  • Bank of England Executive Director for Banking, Payments, and Innovation Victoria Cleland gives the keynote speech at the Digital Innovation Summit 2023 in London.

  • Italy GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), PPI (October)

  • Poland Inflation (October)

  • Greece Retail Sales (August)

  • Spain Current Account (August)

  • Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

  • Hungary Inflation (October)

  • Serbia Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Ukraine Current Account (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3)

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

  • South Africa Balance of Trade (September) 

 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 

Global

  • China assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council.  In the afternoon, there will be a press briefing by the Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations and the President of the Security Council for the month of November, Ambassador Zhang Jun. 

  • The World Trade Organization holds a General Council meeting in Geneva through November 2.

  • The UK hosts the AI Safety Summit through November 2 in London.  Leaders from around the world will travel to London to discuss the risks of AI and how they can be mitigated.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Antigua Independence Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1981.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • U.S. Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference,  U.S. Treasury Refunding Announcement, US ADP Employment Change (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October 27) ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTs Job Openings (September), Construction Spending (September)

  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Senate’s Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

  • Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision, Brazil Industrial Production (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

  • Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Peru Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • India puts into effect its new “import management system” to monitor shipments of laptops, tablets, and other similar devices. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M3 Money Supply (October 20)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

  • Australia Ai Group Industry Index (October), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (October), Ai Group Construction and Manufacturing Indexes (October), Building Permits (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October), Commodity Prices (October)

  • New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Unemployment (Q3), Labor Costs (Q3)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation (October), Tourist Arrivals (September)

  • Malaysia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Taiwan S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Vietnam S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Thailand S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Greece S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Russia GDP (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (September), Business Confidence (October), Retail Wage Growth (August), Retail Sales (September), Corporate Profits (August), M2 Money Supply (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

  • Saudi Arabia Me Money Supply (September), Private Bank Lending (September)

  • Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Kenya Inflation (October)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

  • South Africa Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October) 

 

Thursday, November 2, 2023

Global

  • The International Vienna Energy and Climate Forum will take place on 2 and 3 November at the Hofburg International Centre in Vienna.

  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the AI Safety Summit 2023 at Bletchley Park, UK.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Mexico celebrates the annual Day of the Dead parade in Mexico City.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (October), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Factory Orders (September)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (September)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The 3rd round of Fukushima Daiichi treated water will be released.  The release of the damaged nuclear power plant water has become a major diplomatic irritant between Japan and China, which has condemned Japan’s release of the water and restricted the sale of Japanese fish products to China.

  • IMF officials travel to Pakistan to hold talks on potential financial relief via the release of a $710 million second tranche of a pre-approved $3 billion loan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Australia Balance of Trade (September), Home Loans (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Pakistan Inflation (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

  • Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with UN Secretary General António Guterres in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture on "Monetary Policy Tightening in the Euro Area"  at the University of Limerick in Limerick, Ireland.

  • ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a fireside chat with Gillian Tett, Financial Times, at the 30th CIBP Congress "Cooperative Banks, Actors of Transitions" in Paris, France.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in St. Louis, Missouri.

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (October)

  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

  • France Budget Balance (September), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Poland S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Ireland Unemployment (October)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Switzerland Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Romania PPI (September)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bahrain Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

  • Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Qatar Deposit Interest Rate (November),

  • Royal Reserve Bank of Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Britain's King Charles III makes a state visit to Kenya.

  • The 10th Africa Fintech Summit begins in Lusaka, Zambia. 

  • The 20th African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Summit Forum begins in Johannesburg. Key delegations from all member countries, regional economic entities, and representatives from the private and public sectors will meet to strengthen trade and economic ties between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Total New Vehicles Sales (October)

 

Friday, November 3, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Joe Biden will host an Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit, which will include leaders from South American nations.  Among the issues they will discuss are greater trade opportunities, tackling migration issues, and climate change.   

  • The US Financial Stability Oversight Board, chaired by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, will convene to discuss commercial real estate market developments; get an update on the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance; approve the Council’s 2023 annual report; and review the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company determinations. 

  • Today is Dominican Independence Day, commemorating when it gained independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will begin visits to the Philippines and Malaysia.  The aim of the visit is to discuss increased security with Japan.  Both countries are recipients of Japan’s Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework.

  • Today is Culture Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (October)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October), Bank Loan Growth (October 20)

  • South Korea FX Reserves (October)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (September)

  • Taiwan FX Reserves (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the Regulators 2023 (FINSIA) Conference in Sydney, Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Retail Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Unemployment (September)

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • France Industrial Production (October), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

  • Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

  • Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Jonathan Haskel participates as a panelist discussing “Labour Market Dynamics” at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • Italy Unemployment (September)

  • Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Greece Unemployment (September)

  • Romania Unemployment (September)

  • Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Experts/Balances of Trade (October), Inflation (October), PPI (October), Auto Sales (October)

  • Bahrain M2 Money Supply (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

  • Lebanon BLOM PMI (October)

  • Egypt FX Reserves (October)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

  • Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (October)

 

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia celebrates the Day of Unity, commemorating an uprising in Moscow against Polish forces in 1612. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 27 - 29, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Middle East

  • “The Israel and Gaza War: Economic Repercussions”    Brookings Institution

    Brookings’ scholars provide a brief discussion of the possible economic repercussions, bearing in mind the extreme uncertainty characterizing the situation. The repercussions of the crisis are dependent on the extent and duration of the fighting, associated geopolitical tensions, and the possible occurrence of terrorist attacks. While the overall reaction of financial markets has been relatively muted so far, the risks of an intensification and broadening of the conflict are material, and their potential fallout could be severe, especially for countries in the region.

 

  • “Will Lebanon Be Safe or Sorry?”   Carnegie Middle East Center

    Many Lebanese are playing a morbid game these days—assessing the probability that their country will be destroyed if Hezbollah enters the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. On several occasions, the Israelis have warned that in any future war with Hezbollah, they would send Lebanon “back to the stone age.”  The assumption is that once Israel begins a ground invasion of Gaza, the prospect of a Lebanon conflict will greatly increase. 

 

  • “Egypt in the Cauldron of Gaza”   Foreign Affairs

    As Israel readies for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, much attention has shifted to how Egypt will respond in the coming days and weeks. The Egyptian government, after all, has been party to the 16-year-long Israeli blockade of Gaza, enforcing tight controls on what comes in and out of the enclave through the border crossing at Rafah. The Egyptian people, however, see their own circumstances very differently: like the people of Gaza, they are trapped by corruption and neglect in an apparently endless spiral of poverty and subjugation, as bread, freedom, and justice seem increasingly out of reach. That kind of despair breeds only bitterness and anger. The Sisi government may be able to deflect and contain protests against its own policies, but only at the cost of more repression, since local echoes of Palestinian discontent and frustration are not hard to discern in the demonstrations of solidarity that have spread across the country.

 

 

Americas 

  • “Paper Tiger or Pacing Threat? China’s Security and Defense Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

    China has long couched its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean in primarily economic terms. However, China is becoming increasingly strident in its efforts to bolster defense and security initiatives in the Western Hemisphere. Chinese defense and security engagements manifest along a spectrum, including dual-use civilian and military infrastructure projects, public safety assistance, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, arms sales, and joint military-to-military exchanges and trainings. An expanded military and security presence in the hemisphere poses significant concerns for the United States in the event of a potential conflict or crisis, imperils regional stability by empowering criminal regimes in the hemisphere, and risks eroding democratic norms within regional militaries and police forces.  

 

  • “’Compensate the Losers?’ Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the U.S.”  National Bureau of Economic Research

    Abstract: We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.

 

China 

  • “2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”    U.S. Department of Defense

    The U.S. Department of Defense recently released its annual report on "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China." The congressionally mandated report serves as an authoritative assessment on military and security developments involving the PRC.   The report finds that in 2022, the PRC increasingly turned to the PLA as an instrument of statecraft. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, while accelerating its development of capabilities, including its nuclear, space, and cyberspace capabilities; deepening military ties with Russia; and strengthening its ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. At the same time, the PRC largely denied, cancelled, and ignored recurring bilateral defense engagements, as well as DoD requests for military-to-military communication at multiple levels.

Book Recommendation

Germany 1923 by Volker Ullrich

(Liveright Publishing, 432 pages, 2023)

1923 was, for Germany, the year of polycrisis that would shape the next two decades and beyond for Europe and the world.  Adolf Hitler attempted his Beer Hall Putsch in Munich.  The German government failed to make reparation payments to France, which resulted in Paris sending in troops to occupy the Ruhr region – the economic backbone of an otherwise broke and crumpled German economy. 

It turned inflation in Germany into hyperinflation.  It also was a bitter and humiliating event for the German people, who were still stunned at the loss of the War and the heavy financial punishments placed upon them. 

That, in turn, ignited a series of political crises in Germany, threatening the disintegration of the nation.  And that brought the next horrific evolution of events: The empowerment Hitler and his followers as increasingly desperate Germans looked for a powerful leader to ascend who could restore Germany and their lives.

2024 did see a resolution to the reparation issue and the pulling out of French troops from the Ruhr.  But the damage had been done.   The long fuse leading to Hitler’s rise to complete power a decade hence was lit.

Ullrich’s book is a healthy and timely reminder of how fragile democracy is, requiring constant, careful tending and protection.  What happened in 1923 Germany led to the German people losing faith in their government and the democratic institutions on which it was based – thus opening the door to Hitler’s rise a short ten years later. 

The same can be said about national and global economies and just how dangerous inflation can become – and how badly it can get out of control due to political tensions.  All of which remain salient lessons today. 

Germany 1923 is a fascinating and fact-rich read.  We highly recommend it.

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