It Was the Best Vacation Ever…

I was away for ten days in Saint Martin. It was the best vacation ever - thank you, Saint Martin. I’ll be back!

Brendan Francis Kelly with me, his grandfather who is known as “Tank.”

Global Week Ahead

November 26 - December 3, 2023

The situation in Gaza continues to dominate the attention of global political leaders and the markets as a temporary pause in the war is scheduled to end today after three groups of hostages were released in the last few days.  What happens now is unclear, as the cease-fire could continue if more hostages are released.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the region this week to encourage continued negotiations.  Conversely, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Turkey and Syria to discuss the situation in Gaza.  Raisi has been outspoken in his desire to rally the Muslim world in opposition to Israel and support Hamas. 

Also happening in the Middle East this week is the beginning of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.  The event will see leaders worldwide gather to discuss the next steps in climate change policy.  But expectations are already muted due to the Gaza War and many global leaders who are not attending, including President Biden.   

Closer to home, the U.S. Congress returns to work this week following the Thanksgiving recess last week.  They will continue to struggle to pass appropriations bills by the end of the year and come to a decision on how to pass a sizeable military assistance package for Israel along with a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Tied up with this is Republican demands for more funding for border security for the U.S. southern border.  A deal can be made if all three funding requests are tied up together, but getting to that point will take the better part of the week to iron out the details.

On the global economic data radar screen, it is a relatively quiet calendar of releases this week. Markets are watching for the PMI reports from China, Japan, and the EU this week.  Also closely watched will be U.S. personal income and spending data along with the PCE (which the Federal Reserve watches most closely to gauge inflation). 

Also, OPEC+ meets this week after delaying their scheduled meeting last week.  African oil producing countries reportedly were resisting further cuts to production, which both Saudi Arabia and Russia have been advocating.

There will be several central bank speeches this week, led by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and later in the week when she speaks at the ECB’s 5th Forum on Banking Supervision.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will talk Wednesday and Friday at Spelman College in Georgia and Bank of England Andrew Bailey. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Treasury Undersecretary of Treasury for Terrorism & Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Turkey and Oman through December 1 to discuss ways to further cut off Hamas’ ability to access funding.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Monday, November 27, 2023

Global

• The 2nd meeting of States Parties (2MPS) to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons commences in New York.  The United States, France, and the UK are not signatories to the Treaty.

• The UN Forum on Business and Human Rights takes place in New York through November 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Israel for talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials about the Gaza War.  This will be Blinken’s fourth trip to the region since Hamas’ terrorist assault on Israel on October 7th.

• The US Congress returns from their Thanksgiving recess to again work on appropriations bills, a military aid package to Israel and further military aid to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US New Home Sales (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Building Permits (October)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

• Peru GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visits Japan to discuss trade issues and to upgrade diplomatic relations to the status of strategic partnership – the highest diplomatic status possible.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (October)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)                                                           

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Economy Minister Habeck will hold emergency meetings with German state-level economic ministers to discuss the consequences of the recent Constitutional Court decision on the German budget.

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the second Global Investment Summit, showcasing British expertise to attract foreign backers. More than 200 heads of multinational companies and investment firms have been invited to attend.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels to discuss preparations for the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference, an interim trade agreement with Chile, and the state of EU-US trade relations.

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Brussels through November 28.  They are expected to discuss reaching a general approach on the directive on the European disability card and the European parking card for persons with disabilities. Under the umbrella of the 2024 European Semester, they will hold a policy debate on green collective bargaining. They will also discuss anti-racism and social investment in the EU. Ministers will also seek to approve conclusions, among others, on digitalization in social security coordination.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• France Unemployment (October)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The Abu Dhabi Finance Week begins and runs through November 30.  There are six Forums being held as part of the week, including the Abu Dhabi Economic Forum, the Asset Abu Dhabi, the Fintech Abu Dhabi, the Global Financial Regulators Summit, the R.A.C.E. Sustainability Summit, and Falcon Square (where 15 startups will showcase their innovations).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (October), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 3rd International Conference on Public Health in Africa (CPHIA 2023), organized by the African Union and Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), will be held in Lusaka, Zambia, through November 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an Economic Outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

•  Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank’s Modernized Community Reinvestment Act and Indian Country (virtual)

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision will participate in a Fireside Chat on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Opportunity Finance Network (virtual).

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at the Bank’s annual Midwest Agriculture Conference at the Chicago Fed.

• US Redbook (November 25), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence (November), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Richmond Fed Services Index (November), Dallas Fed Services Index (November),

• Bank of Canada Executive Director Ron Morrow will speak at the Central 1 Credit Union’s Momentum 2023 Summit in Ottawa.

• Brazil IPCA Mid-month CPI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Indonesia formally begins the election campaign season as three candidates - Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan – run to become the next president.  The campaign ends on February 10.

The China International Supply Chain Expo begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Vietnam FDI (November)

• Malaysia PPI (October)

• Australia Retail Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the War in Ukraine.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will address the German Bundestag on the budget crisis.

• Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela will visit Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• British and Irish ministers gather for the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin.  However, there is currently no government in place in Northern Ireland, as all parties are deadlocked on creating a new government.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

• Today is Albania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video address to the 2023 European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) Conference "European corporate reporting - Two pillars of success" in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy organized by Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel entitled "Regulatory Leaders’ Dialogue: Are we entering a new age of bank supervision?" at the Financial Times Global Banking Summit in London, United Kingdom.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Jonathan Haskel will give a speech at Warwick University entitled “UK inflation: How did we get here and where are we going?”

• Eurozone Loans to Companies (October), Loans to Households (October), M3 Money Supply (October)
  Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

• France Consumer Confidence (November)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

• Hungary GDP (Q3)

• Greece Total Credit (October)

• Ireland Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Turkey and Syria to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment (Q3), M3 Money Supply (October), Private Bank Lending (October)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (October), Private Banking Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Mauritania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (November) 

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Global

• The OECD publishes its latest Global Economic Outlook.

• The UN observes the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. A special meeting is organized at 11 a.m. at the Palais des Nations. The commemoration will also be webcast live to allow interested participants to follow the event virtually on the UN Web TV.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The New York Times DealBook Summit will be held in New York.  Vice President Kamala Harris, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn, Elon Musk, and other senior political and corporate executives are scheduled to speak.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give keynote speech before the Policy Conference 2023 hosted by the Loyola University Chicago Quinlan School of Business.

• US GDP (Q3), Fed Beige Book, Corporate Profits (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (October), Wholesale Inventories (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3)

• Canada Current Account (Q3)

• Brazil PPI (October), IGP-M Inflation (November)

• Chile Unemployment (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Adachi Seiji gives a speech to local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

• South Korea Business Confidence (November)

• Australia Construction Work Done (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (October)

• Singapore Export & Import Prices (October), PPI (October)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Philippines Budget Balance (October)

• Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Berlin Security Conference begins in Berlin and runs through November 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks at the 50th anniversary of the London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee in London.

• EU Economic Sentiment (November), Consumer Confidence (November), Industrial Sentiment (November), Selling Price Expectations (November), Services Sentiment (November)

• Germany Inflation (November)

• UK Bank of England Consumer Credit (October), Mortgage Approvals (October)

• Italy PPI (October), Construction Output (Q3), Inflation (November), Industrial Sales (September)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (November)

• Spain Inflation (November), Retail Sales (October), Business Confidence (November)

• Bulgaria Business Confidence (November)

• Italy Business Confidence & Consumer Confidence (November)

• Ireland Inflation (November), Industrial Sales (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

• Russia GDP (October), Unemployment (October), Business Sentiment (November), Corporate Profits (September), Industrial Production (October), Real Wage Growth (September), Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Economic Confidence Index (November)

• Bahrain Inflation (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Global

• The OPEC+ meetings scheduled for last week (November 25-26) were delayed and are now scheduled to take place today.  It is now increasingly believed a dispute between African members and Saudi Arabia led to the delay and less likely odds further cuts in production will be agreed to by the cartel.

• COP28 begins in Dubai and runs through December 12.

• The UN Security Council is expected to hold a vote on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Venezuela to meet the terms of the agreement with the US to meet democratic reform commitments in return for the relaxation of US sanctions.

• California Governor Gavin Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will debate each other on Fox.

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas holds the 2nd CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop.  A number of international regulators and US regulators will participate.

• Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Core PCE Price Index (October), Personal Income (October), Personal Spending (October), Pending Home Sales (October)

• Canada GDP (Q3), CFIB Business Barometer (November)

• Brazil Unemployment (October), Net Payrolls (October)

• Mexico Unemployment Rate (October), Fiscal Balance (October)

• Chile Copper Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Colombia Unemployment (October), Cement Production (October)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Bhutan holds parliamentary elections.

• Indonesian union members will begin protests over wage-related issues.  The protests are expected to run through December 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Nakamura Toyoaki gives a speech to local leaders in Hyogo, Japan.

• China NBS Manufacturing PMIs (November)

• India GDP (Q3), Infrastructure Output (October), Government Budget Value (October)

• Japan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Consumer Confidence (November), Housing Starts (October), Construction Orders (October)

• Australia Building Permits (October), Housing Credit (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

• South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Thailand Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Private Investment (October)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels to discuss open strategic autonomy from a health perspective, and they will seek to approve conclusions on mental health. The Spanish presidency will also update ministers on ongoing legislative files and their state of play, such as the regulation on EMA fees, the European Health Data Space regulation, the regulation on substances of human origin, and the pharmaceutical package.

• The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels to exchange views on cohesion policy post-2027. They will also be invited to approve conclusions on the future of cohesion policy.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank holds a Governing Council (non-monetary policy) meeting in Frankfurt.

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a welcome address at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a conversation with Jacques de Larosière, former Governor of the Banque de France and Managing Director of the IMF, at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel "Taking stock: the single supervisor ten years on" at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel "Modern supervision: what is key?" at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Green will give a speech at Leeds University entitled “Are we there yet? A journey into monetary policy and medium-term factors”

• Eurozone Inflation (November), Unemployment (October), CPI (November)

• Germany Retail Sales (October), Import Prices (October), Unemployment (November)

• France Inflation (November), GDP (Q3), PPI (October)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

• Italy Inflation (November), CPI (November)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (October), KOF Leading Indicators (November)

• Bulgaria PPI (October)

• Poland Inflation (October), GDP (Q3)

• Spain Current Account (September)

• Slovenia CPI (November), Inflation (November)

• North Macedonia Current Account (Q3), Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (Q3), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment (Q3)

• Hungary Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Greece CPI (November), PPI (October), Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (October)

• Ukraine Current Account (October)

• Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bahrain M2 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Kenya Inflation Rate (November) 

Friday, December 1, 2023 

Global

• Brazil takes the rotating G20 Chair for 2024 from Japan.

• Ecuador assumes the monthly rotating chair of the UN Security Council.

• Today is the first day of winter per the meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will participate in a Fireside Chat with Spelman College President Helene Gayle at Spelman College, Atlanta, Georgia.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a keynote speech on supervision and regulation at the Fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Bank’s annual Economic Outlook Symposium.

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), ISM Manufacturing Employment (November), Construction Spending (October)

• Canada Unemployment (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Mexico FX Reserves (October), Business Confidence (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Brazil Industrial Production (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Balance of Trade (November)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Peru Inflation (November)

• Argentina Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China officially begins to implement export controls on several critical minerals needed for electric vehicles (EVs).

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Bank Loan Growth (November 17), FX Reserves (November 24), Deposit Growth (November 17)

• Japan Unemployment (October), Capital Spending (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (November)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Commodity Prices (November)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Inflation (November)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Business Confidence (November)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

• Today is Romania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a conversation at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel entitled "The road ahead for bankers and policymakers" at the 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• France Budget Balance (October), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Italy GDP (Q3)

• Ireland  GDP (Q3), GNP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Hungary GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (September), HALPIN Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Switzerland GDP (Q3)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November) 

Saturday, December 2, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 3, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuela holds a referendum on the Guyana-administered Essequibo region.

Economic Reports/Events –

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

 Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

November 27 - December 1, 2023

Washington returns to work this week after a long (and hopefully relaxing) Thanksgiving holiday.  We are watching three major events – two of which come in sets – this week. 

The first is in Frankfurt, Germany, at the Fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023, a virtual “who’s who” of global financial regulators, bank CEOs,  and leading financial member of the media.  Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr will be among several major regulators speaking on various regulatory issues.  Expect a spirited defense of new bank capital rules and the need for tighter global coordination on bank regulation.

The second significant event of the week we are watching is two speeches by Vice Chair Barr  is giving in the US addressing the Fed’s recently proposed changes to the Community Reinvestment Act.  As we see it, these speeches are a continuation of a virtual barn-storming tour Barr is taking to defend the new measures as banks consider taking legal action to push back on the proposal.

The third set of events we are watching this week is the testimony of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and then the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.   We expect fireworks at both of these hearings.

Chopra has been pushing several regulatory agenda items that are, quite frankly, anathema to the financial services sector, which has, in turn, mounted a growing lobbying effort in Congress to step in and block the CFPB’s actions.   Chopra has a somewhat cantankerous relationship with House and Senate Republicans.  We can expect him to get a lot of questions about his effort and what knowledge – if any – of the unfolding sexual misconduct scandal at the FDIC, where Chopra sits on the board.  Recall that Chopra was instrumental in helping FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg regain the chair and has been a solid ally to Gruenberg.

Below is the full regulatory calendar for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

• November 29, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.”  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.

U.S. Senate

• The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress.”  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will testify.  

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Global Events

• November 29 – The Global Financial Regulators Summit begins in Abu Dhabi.  A large number of financial regulators – including a number of U.S. regulators – will gather at the invite-only event.

• November 30 — December 1 — The ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023 is being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• November 28, 10:05 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an Economic Outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

• November 28, 1:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank’s Modernized Community Reinvestment Act and Indian Country (virtual)

• November 28, 3:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision will participate in a Fireside Chat on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Opportunity Finance Network (virtual).

• November 30 – December 1 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas holds the 2nd CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop.  A number of international regulators and US regulators will participate.

• December 1, 3:00 a.m. (Frankfurt time) – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a keynote speech on supervision and regulation at the Fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

• December 1, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will participate in a Fireside Chat with Spelman College President Helene Gayle at Spelman College, Atlanta, Georgia.

U.S. Treasury Department

November 28, 9:00 a.m. – U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will give a keynote address at the American Bankers Association Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Washington, D.C.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• November 29, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee.

• November 30, 2:15 p.m. – The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• November 29, 10:30 a.m. Abu Dhabi time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham will participate in the Global Financial Regulators Summit and speak on a panel entitled “How The Transition Era Will Affect the Global Banking System” at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week.

• November 29, 6:00 p.m. Dallas time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• No significant events are scheduled.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• No significant events are scheduled.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No significant events are scheduled.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant events are scheduled.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• November 29 (no times listed for security reasons) – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a moderated conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit at Lincoln Center in New York.

Farm Credit Administration

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• November 30 – SIFMA holds its 20th Global Corporate Actions Forum in New York.

• November 30 – ISDA holds a conference entitled “Trading Book Capital: Basel 3 Implementation, Climate Risk in the Trading Book” in London. 

• November 28 – 30 – The American Bankers Association holds its Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Washington, D.C.  Senior U.S. regulators and U.S. Justice Department officials will speak.

Think Tanks

•  Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Thanksgiving Weekend Reads

November 23 - 16, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.  We hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend!

The Middle East

• “US Wants a ‘revitalized’ Palestinian Authority, but can Abbas deliver?” Al Monitor

  As the international community and Western think tanks continue to discuss the future of Gaza and Palestinian leadership, US President Joe Biden weighed in on Nov. 18 in an opinion piece for The Washington Post in which he called for Gaza and the West Bank to be reunited "under a single governance structure, ultimately under a revitalized Palestinian Authority." 

• “The making of a ‘more for more’ deal in the Gaza War”  David Ignatius/Washington Post

  How was a deal reached between Israel and Hamas on releasing hostages?  Washington Post columnist David Ignatius talks to a high-ranking Israeli official and a high-ranking Qatari official to shed light on how the deal came into effect and what it might mean going forward.

• “Hamas’s Asymmetric Advantage”  Foreign Affairs

  That Israel met Hamas’s violence with violence is not remotely surprising, given the Israeli military’s incomparable conventional military superiority to Hamas. Israel has long responded to Palestinian terrorism with inordinate force. The Israeli military is stronger, larger, and better resourced than Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups, and Israeli planners know that their foes cannot go toe to toe with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).  Yet Israel’s military advantages are growing slimmer. Hamas has proved difficult, if not impossible, to vanquish with military force. Technology has shrunk the gap between states and terrorists, allowing nonstate groups to behave in ways that mimic the operations of countries; Hamas can launch sophisticated attacks and spread propaganda as much as Israel can. Ancient tactics, too, such as the construction of a warren of tunnels beneath Gaza, have helped Hamas fend off a more powerful adversary. And Hamas gained leverage by capturing some 240 hostages. States have always struggled to defeat terrorist groups, but the Israel-Hamas war shows why it has gotten even harder to do so.

European Union & UK 

• “German budget disarray sends out powerful ripples beyond Berlin”  OMFIF

  David Marsh, the Chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), argues that while many observers of the recent German Constitutional Court decision on budgetary policy are missing the broader implications to Germany and the EU – most especially, it will likely influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy perspectives.

• “Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking: An Expanding UK Market”   Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

  Across the globe, supply chains of every description are tainted by exploited labor. The UK is no exception: here, as elsewhere, labor is often the greatest cost to business. Reducing this cost offers the fastest route to increased margins. For some businesses, they will use whatever means possible.  In the UK, according to the report, human trafficking and modern slavery have likely increased substantially over the last decade.

Americas

• “Americas Quarterly Podcast: Mexico’s Elections Begin to Take Shape”   Americas Quarterly

  In June 2024, Mexico will elect a new president.  Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León, Mexico’s industrial powerhouse, announced he will run, while former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who was seen as a possible aspirant, said he will not. Although García’s candidacy is seen as a long shot, how might it affect the campaigns of the current favorite, Claudia Sheinbaum, from the governing Morena coalition, and Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate from the opposition Frente Amplio por México? What does this electoral cycle reveal about the current state of Mexican politics? And what are the factors that could shape the race going forward? Political consultant Carlos Ramírez joins us to explore these and other questions.

• “Canada’s bid to attract technology talent”  Institute for Strategic Studies

  The Canadian government has launched a Tech Talent Strategy that eases immigration restrictions to attract foreign entrepreneurs and skilled workers. The initiative, greeted with overwhelming demand on its launch, responds to a shortage of tech skills in the domestic workforce and targets H-1B visa holders in the United States. If Canada succeeds in significantly raising its profile as a home for technological innovation, it will, on net, contribute to the cause of Western technological independence from China. At least some of this success, however, would likely come at the expense of the US and serve as a signal to Washington that its immigration policies, last overhauled by Congress in 1986, are dampening domestic innovation and economic growth.

• “Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data”  Thomas Dreschsel/University of Maryland

  Abstract: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify shocks to political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I built a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political interference and can arise endogenously, I use a narrative identification strategy. To get re-elected, President Nixon pressured Fed Chair Burns to ease monetary policy in 1971. I exploit this episode through narrative sign restrictions in an SVAR that includes the personal interaction data and typical macro data. I find that political pressure shocks (i) increase inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contribute to other inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmit differently from standard expansionary monetary policy shocks, in particular by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. While the benefits of central bank independence have previously been shown using cross-country data, my estimates cover one economy through time and are quantitative: increasing political pressure 50% as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the U.S. price level by more than 8%.

China

• “Foreign direct investment is existing China”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  New Chinese data imply that foreign firms operating in China are not only declining to reinvest their earnings but—for the first time ever—they are large net sellers of their existing investments to Chinese companies and repatriating the funds.  These outflows exceeded $100 billion in the first three quarters of 2023 and are likely to grow further based on trends to date. The investment selloffs are contributing to downward pressure on the value of the Chinese currency and, if sustained, will modestly reduce China’s potential growth.

• “Podcast: The Philippines Perspective of China’s Role in the South China Sea” China Power/CSIS

  The podcast takes a look at the Philippines’s view of the recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and China’s behavior in the waters and beyond., diving into China’s coercive tactics in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal and its repeated violations of international law in those areas.

• “Investigating state support for China’s medical technology companies” Merics

  Medical technologies are a key focus of China's industrial policy strategy and central to Beijing’s plans to move up the value chain. To spur on the development of local firms and promote self-reliance in this highly innovative sector, Chinese officials are steering research into key technologies and offering financial assistance to promising firms. In addition, biased procurement processes and regulatory barriers are limiting market access opportunities for foreign firms.  This study seeks to quantify the value of state support in China's MedTech sector. While data limitations obscure the impact of market access barriers, it shows that measurable forms of financial support directed to Chinese MedTech firms have grown about five times between 2017 and 2022. Beijing is facilitating the rise of increasingly competitive domestic players, posing a challenge for foreign firms both in China as well as abroad.

The Race for Critical Minerals

and Alternative Energy

• “The Geopolitics of Hydrogen”  German Institute for International and Security Affairs

  The transition to a hydrogen-based economy is gaining momentum in both Germany and the European Union (EU). Used as an energy carrier, hydrogen holds the promise of freeing hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, aviation, and maritime trade from their emissions. At the same time, policymakers hope that hydrogen will promote Europe’s energy independence, push sustainable development, and strengthen value-based trade. This study presents three plausible yet disruptive scenarios for the geopolitics of hydrogen up to the year 2040 (developed with a team of experts in a multi-stage foresight process). “Hydrogen Realignment” considers the possibility of an eastward shift of industry, power, and technological leadership; “Hydrogen (In)Dependence” depicts a future in which Europe pursues hydrogen self-sufficiency but becomes dependent on raw material supply; and “Hydrogen Imperialism” delves into the dystopian scenario of a hydrogen transition dominated by hegemons and despots.

• “China Aims to Corner the Undersea Mineral Market, Too”   Foreign Policy

  Hungry for more critical minerals to power the energy transition, a slew of countries and companies are desperate to start mining the seafloor for a potential cache of metals—including cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese—that will be critical to the scramble to build ever more batteries. International negotiations are now underway to craft a mining rulebook for the high seas, and China doesn’t want to be left out of the race. Eager to maintain its command of the world’s critical mineral supply chains, experts say that Beijing is positioning itself for success in the prospective industry by ramping up investment and shaping negotiations, even though it doesn’t appear to be in a rush to begin mining.

• “A rush for Lithium in Africa risks fueling corruption and failing citizens”   Global Witness

  Efforts to address the global climate emergency are leading to an increased demand for renewable energy technology, particularly in the Global North, including electric vehicles and the batteries required to power them. Africa is one of the new frontiers in a race for battery metals, and lithium – sometimes referred to as ‘white gold’ – is one of the most sought-after commodities.  Global Witness investigated three emerging lithium mines in Zimbabwe, Namibia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). What we found shows that the rush for lithium on the continent – far from delivering a ‘just energy transition’ – risks fueling corruption and a range of other environmental, social, and governance (ESG) problems. For generations, African nations have been exploited for their minerals, and as the demand for ‘transition minerals’ increase, there is a danger of history repeating itself.

The Global Week Ahead

November 19 - 26, 2023

For the first time in a long time, the coming geopolitical week looks like it will be a relatively quiet one.  The ongoing battle in Gaza between Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas will continue to be the focus as Middle Eastern leaders met with China’s top diplomat Minister Wang Yi to discuss finding a way to bring an end to the hostilities.

EU Foreign Ministers will also gather virtually to discuss the Gaza situation as the EU’s top diplomat conducts a whirlwind of meetings in the Middle East seeking to mediate.

Meanwhile, G20 leaders will gather virtually later this week to review issues discussed at the recent summit in New Delhi.  Gaza and the situation in Ukraine will dominate the agenda, as will how leaders can work together to find solutions. 

Washington has gone quiet in the US as Congress has taken the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday.  They return next week, where they will again take up efforts to finalize appropriation bills after passing another last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government running.

On the global economic radar screen, it is a fairly quiet week for major economic reports.  The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank release meeting minutes this week.  This Friday, markets will also watch PMIs from Europe, Japan, and the US.  Germany will also release Q3 GDP figures on Friday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 19, 2023 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family, who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Monday, November 20, 2023

Global

• The Emissions Gap Report 2023 will be launched by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).  UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, will brief journalists on that report. He will be joined virtually by Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director, and Anne Olhoff, Chief Scientific Editor of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: promote sustaining peace through common development.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden hosted the annual National Thanksgiving Turkey pardoning ceremony at the White House.

• The US Congress is out this week – the first time both chambers have been out for ten weeks.

• The Halifax International Security Forum is being held in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US CB Leading Index (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Peru GDP (Q3)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Marshall Islands holds parliamentary elections and a Constitutional referendum.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Accounts (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal video conference of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers to discuss a humanitarian pause in Gaza. This will happen as EU High Representative Josef Borrell will visit the region.

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a business delegation will travel to Europe looking to make further inroads into the region's markets. Winning support for South Korea's bid to host World Expo 2030 in the city of Busan will also be among Yoon's top priorities.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. He will also meet the Chairlady of the Council of Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Borjana Krišto. He will hold meetings with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and the Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić. Later that day, Stoltenberg will travel to the Republic of North Macedonia to meet with President Stevo Pendarovski and the Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovačevski.

• The European Economic Area Council meets to discuss the functioning of the European Economic Area Agreement and economic security.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss the EU’s rural areas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a virtual policy panel at 6th annual meeting of Central Bank Research Association’s (CEBRA) International Trade and Macroeconomic program joint with the 5th annual meeting of CEBRA’s International Finance and Macroeconomics program in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture  a speech entitled “A Measure of Wheat for a Penny: Food Price Inflation in Historical Perspective.” 

• Eurozone Construction Output (September)

• Germany PPI (October), Bundesbank Monthly Report

• Greece Current Account (September)

• Slovakia Unemployment (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Central Government Debt

• Israel Unemployment (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The G20 Compact with Africa Conference will be held in Berlin, Germany, hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• The East Africa Regional Tourism Expo will be held in Nairobi, Kenya. The Expo showcases the various diverse tourism opportunities in the continent.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report. 

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on peace and security in Africa and a briefing on Ukraine in the afternoon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US FMOC Meeting Minutes Released, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October), Redbook (November 18), Existing Home Sales (October)

• Canada Inflation (October), New Housing Price Index (October), CPI (October)

• Paraguay PPI (October)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea PPI (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock participates in a panel discussion at the ASIC Annual Forum in Melbourne, Australia.

• Reserve Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting

• Hong Kong Inflation (October)

• Indonesia Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) to discuss to the situation in Ukraine, aid to Palestine, implementation of the Gender Action Plan III, and follow-up to the EU-CELAC Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the high-level public discussion "Inflation kills democracy" on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the currency reform in Germany in 1923 organized by the German Ministry of Finance in Berlin, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at the International Economic Policy Lecture conference organized by the University of Würzburg in Würzburg, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a talk at  the Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2023: The New Monetary Order, organized by Oliver Wyman.

• UK Labor Productivity (Q3), Public Sector Borrowing (October)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October), Employment Growth (October), PPI (October)

• Slovakia PPI (October), Unemployment (September)

• Hungary Unemployment (October), Base Rate

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (November), M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Global

• A G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually and will be hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The meeting will give leaders a chance to discuss successes and ongoing challenges to issues discussed at the G20 Summit in India recently.  On December 1, Brazil assumes the chair of the G20 for 2024.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the situation in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Durable Goods Orders (October), MBA Mortgage Index (November 17), Initial Jobless Claims (November 18),  Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech before the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce in New Brunswick.

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (October), Wholesale Sales (October)

• Mexico Retail Sales (September)

• Argentina Economic Activity (September), Leading Indicator (October)

• Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney, Australia

• Singapore GDP (Q3)

• Taiwan Unemployment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Netherlands holds parliamentary elections.  Polls suggest races are very close, and a clear winner may take time to sort out.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech and participates in a panel discussion at "Macroeconomic Zeitenwende: How to Achieve Monetary and Financial Stability in the Green Transition" organized by Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin, Germany.

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)

• UK Fiscal Update (UK Chancellor Jeremy Hung will lay out tax and spending plans), CBI Industrial Trends Outlook (November)

• Italy Construction Output (September)

• Poland Retail Sales (October)

• Slovakia Consumer Confidence (November),  Current Account (September)

• Russia PPI

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

• Egypt Current Account (Q3)

• Lebanon Inflation (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation (October)

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Global

• Today is an official holiday at the UN Headquarters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• It is the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. Banks and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (November)

• Colombia Business Account (October)

• Peru Current Account (Q3), Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Judo Bank Services PMI (November)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

• Singapore Current Account (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Canada Summit takes place through November 24 in Saint John’s, Canada.  Leaders will underscore EU-Canada's shared commitment to democratic values, multilateralism, and the international rules-based order as the bedrock of their relationship.

• The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through November 24.

• Brussels Airlines plans to go on strike for an indefinite period of time.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the "Anniversary dinner" of Porto Business School in Porto, Portugal.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs(November)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

• France Business Confidence (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI (November)

• Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Israel Manufacturing Production (September), Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Business Confidence (Q4)

Friday, November 24, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

• Canada Budget Balance (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)

• Mexico GDP (Q3), Economic Activity (September),  Current Account (Q3)

• Chile PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are set to hold their first trilateral meeting since 2019 in Busan, South Korea. The meeting comes following delays caused by issues such as the coronavirus pandemic. The meeting will take place at a time when Seoul and Tokyo are moving closer to the U.S.

• Today is the deadline for Taiwanese presidential candidates to finalize their registration in order to run in the January 13, 2024 elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation (October), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

• India FX Reserves (November 17)

• Singapore Industrial Production (October)

• Malaysia Inflation (October), Coincident Index (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a youth event, "Euro 20+ (Euro)pa der Zukunft" organized by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by a Q&A session at XVIII Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

• Germany GDP (Q3), Ifo Business Climate (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

• Hungary Unemployment (October)

• Spain PPI (October)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (November)

• Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Saturday, November 25, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar will announce the preliminary results of its presidential elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

• OPEC+ meets to consider output production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

November 20 - 24, 2023

Washington has gone quiet this week in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday.  There are no major regulatory speeches, meetings, or other events of note this week.   

But enjoy the calm and peace this week because when greater Washington comes back to work next week, expect a growing bipartisan chorus of members of Congress calling for FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to step down following revelations by the Wall Street Journal he may have tolerated long-term toxic work conditions at the agency.   We expect Gruenberg to fight back hard against the allegations.

 Gruenberg was first nominated to serve on the FDIC Board in 2005.  He then was nominated to become chair in 2011 by President Obama and then, in an unusual move, stayed on the Board after Obama’s term in office ended.  Gruenberg then helped spearhead an ugly and partisan effort to push out his successor so he could again regain the chair – an event which soured many members of Congress on him.  Coupled with this is lingering criticism of the FDIC’s role in the oversight of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and other banks that collapsed earlier this year. In short, Washington has a long memory, and the political knives are now back out, and they are coming for Gruenberg.  

The implications of Gruenberg stepping down would be significant: A Republican (Travis Hill) serves as Vice Chair of the FDIC and would step in as Acting Chair until a new Chair is nominated and confirmed – something that probably would not happen in 2024 in advance of the elections. Gruenberg’s departure would also leave the FDIC Board politically split between two Republicans and two Democrats, likely freezing multiple regulatory efforts Gruenberg, the Biden Administration, and leading Congressional Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have been pushing on capital requirements, raising the deposit insurance fees, CRA, and other contentious issues.

Below is the (very sparse) regulatory calendar for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.  And we hope you have a wonderful and restful Thanksgiving!

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

• Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

U.S. Senate

• Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• The Federal Open Market Committee minutes are released on Tuesday.  But beyond this, no significant speeches, policy events, or meetings are scheduled.

U.S. Treasury Department

• No significant events are scheduled.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• No significant events are scheduled.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• No significant events are scheduled.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• No significant events are scheduled.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• No significant events are scheduled.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

No significant events are scheduled.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant events are scheduled.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• No significant events are scheduled.

Farm Credit Administration

• ·The FCA announced last week that the deadline for submitting input on the Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation's draft strategic plan has been extended from November 21 to November 28.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Tuesday, November 21, 8:00 a.m.:  the Institute for International Finance (IIF) hosts their regular “IIF Talking Policy Series” event featuring Eva Hüpkes, Secretary General of the International Association of Deposit Insurers (IADI).  

Think Tanks

• Monday, November 20, 10:00 a.m.: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Sandra Thompson will participate in a fireside talk at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C. discussing the state of the housing market. The event will be both in person and broadcast virtually.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

November 13 - 17, 2023

Bank regulators will testify before the House and Senate on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  Watch for fireworks around the Federal Reserve’s new capital requirement proposal and recent modifications to the Community Reinvestment Act regulations as members of Congress are likely to ramp up sharp criticism of both efforts. 

Feeding into this line of attack will be the speech Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gave last week rather harshly criticizing the capital standards as unnecessary and suggesting other regulatory efforts by the Fed (read: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr) are outside the scope of the Federal Reserve’s legal mandate.

 Also, this coming week, Fed Vice Chair Barr and FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will speak virtually on a panel hosted by the EU-based Systemic Risk Council entitled “Banking sector turbulences; Lessons Learnt for Supervision and Regulation.”  This is one of the first times the two regulators responsible for the Silicon Valley Bank crisis and other recent bank closings will speak together about what worked – and what did not.

Speaking of the FDIC, they will meet this week to formally approve a new assessment on banks as part of recent regulatory efforts post-Silicon Valley Bank. 

Finally, we will watch the New York Federal Reserve’s 2023 U.S. Treasury Market Conference in New York.  Speakers will include U.S. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams, and several senior regulatory officials.

Below is the full regulatory calendar for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

• November 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a markup of H.R. 5921 (118), the "No U.S. Financing for Iran Act of 2023"; H.R. 5923 (118), the "Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act of 2023"; H.R. 6245 (118), the "Holding Iranian Leaders Accountable Act"; the "Iran Counterterrorism Act of 2023"; the "End Financing to Hamas and State Sponsors of Terrorism Act"; H.R. 5945 (118), the "Freezing-Halting Any More Alleviation of Sanction Act"; H.R. 6000 (118), the "Revoke Iranian Funding Act of 2023"; H.R. 6015 (118), the "Iran Sanctions Accountability Act of 2023"; the "Armed Conflict Migration Act of 2023"; the "Office of Foreign Assets Control Licensure for Investigators Act"; and the "Stopping Illicit Oil Shipments Act of 2023."

• November 15, 9:30 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing with top banking regulators and other financial regulators.  The witnesses will include Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr,  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

• November 15, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Crypto Crime in Context: Breaking Down the Illicit Activity in Digital Assets."

U.S. Senate

• November 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing with top banking regulators and other financial regulators.  The witnesses will include Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chair Martin Gruenberg, acting Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Michael Hsu, and National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) Chair Todd Harper.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Joint Regulatory Agency Event

• November 16: The New York Federal Reserve Bank will host the 2023 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.  Speakers will include U.S. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams, and a number of senior regulatory officials.

Federal Reserve Board

• November 13, 8:50 a.m. – US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give introductory remarks at the Federal Reserve Board 5th Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics in Washington, D.C.

• November 14, 10:00 a.m. – US Federal Reserve Board Chair Michael Barr will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at a hearing entitled “Hearing on Oversight of the Financial Regulators.”  Also testifying with Barr will be Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; Todd Harper, Chair, National Credit Union Administration; and Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

• November 14:  U.S. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on a panel at the 7th Annual Conference on Systemic Risk (virtual) on a panel entitled “Banking sector turbulences; Lessons Learnt for supervision and regulation” at the 7th Annual Conference on Systemic Risk (virtual).  Joining him on the panel will be Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of Banco de España, Chair of the ESRB Advisory Technical Committee and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (who will chair the panel),  Martin Gruenberg, Chair of the FDIC, Stephen Cecchetti, Chair of the ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee, Professor and Rosen Family Chair in International Finance, Brandeis International Business School, Mathias Dewatripont, Professor, Université libre de Bruxelles,  Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board, European Central Bank Banking Supervision.

• November 16, 10:30 a.m. – U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on ‘Central Bank Digital Currency” at the 2nd Conference on the Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency by the Bank of Canada and Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden.

• November 16, 9:25. a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the in 2023 U.S. Treasury Markets Conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• November 16, 7:00 a.m. – U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks on “Global Linkages and Spillovers” at Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference – Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World, San Francisco, California

• November 17 (Frankfurt, Germany): San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to give closing keynote before the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

U.S. Treasury Department

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• November 13: The CFTC Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee will meet in Washington, D.C.   

• November 13, 12:05 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta Economics Club (a monthly lunch series)  in Atlanta, Georgia.

• November 14 – 16: The CFTC  will host a Career Forum for College, University, and Law School Students and Recent Graduates in Washington,. D.C.

• November 15: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the Financial Markets Quality Conference 2023 hosted by the Psaros Center at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business in Washington, D.C.

• November 15, 3:15 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a Regulatory and Policy Roundtable at the Financial Markets Quality Conference at Georgetown’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy in Washington, D.C.

• November 16, 10:00 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will deliver a keynote address at the Consumer Federation of America’s Financial Services Conference in Washington, D.C.

• November 16, 1:20 p.m. (Singapore Time) – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “Are investors backing the digital assets ecosystem? A policy and investor dialogue” at the Singapore Fintech Festival.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• November 16, 10: 00 a.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors he Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Board of Directors will meet to consider the following matters:

  • Memorandum and resolution re: Final Rule on Special Assessment Pursuant to Systemic Risk Determination.

  • Briefing on the Restoration Plan Semiannual Update.

• November 16, 1:10 p.m. Frankfurt, Germany Time: FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak (virtually) on a panel entitled “Banking sector turbulences; Lessons Learnt for supervision and regulation” at the 7th Annual Conference on Systemic Risk (virtual).  Joining him on the panel will be Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of Banco de España, Chair of the ESRB Advisory Technical Committee and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (who will chair the panel),  Michael Barr, Vice-Chair for Supervision, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Stephen Cecchetti, Chair of the ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee, Professor and Rosen Family Chair in International Finance, Brandeis International Business School, Mathias Dewatripont, Professor, Université libre de Bruxelles
  Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board, European Central Bank Banking Supervision

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• November 14, 1:00 p.m. – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a meeting by teleconference of the Consumer Advisory Board to discuss broad policy matters related to the bureau's unified regulatory agenda and general scope of authority

• November 15, 1:00 p.m. – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a meeting by teleconference of the Community Bank Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the bureau's unified regulatory agenda and general scope of authority.

• November 16, 1:00 p.m. –  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a meeting by teleconference of the Credit Union Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the bureau's unified regulatory agenda and general scope of authority.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Farm Credit Administration

• No significant policy events are scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• November 14-16:  ISDA holds their “Voluntary Carbon Markets Forum: Building Trust in the Voluntary Carbon Markets” in London.

• November 14: The Investment Company Institute holds their annual Closed-End Fund Conference in New York.

• November 16, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center hosts a speech by Stefano Scarpetta, Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the topic “AI and the Workforce: An International Economic Outlook.”  The event will be virtual and in person.

Think Tanks

• Nothing significant to report. 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

November 10 - 12, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Russia

• “Be Careful What You Wish For Putin’s Replacement Might Not Be Better”   Stimson Center

  Crumbling autocratic regimes usually spawn authoritarian successors, not a turn towards liberal democracy. This has been the case for other dictators who were overthrown, such as Egypt’s Mubarak, now under military rule, or Venezuela’s Chavez, who was replaced by Maduro. With popular approval still high, Putin will most likely be re-elected next year and continue to rule Russia for the foreseeable future. Only death, a debilitating disease, or a humiliating rout on the battlefield would cause his ouster. It is a risk to assume Putin’s successor would be more likely to end the war in Ukraine or more likely to espouse liberal values.

• “Putin’s Cannon Fodder”  Foreign Affairs Interview

  In this audio interview, Dara Massicot, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains that in Ukraine, where war with Russia grinds on, the dominant question has become: Can one side outlast the other? This is especially true as both sides face another grueling winter. One thing Russia has in ample supply is men. But how it treats its soldiers is having an effect on the battlefield.

The Middle East

• “Five Questions About Gaza”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle Eastern Center

  Middle Eastern scholar Nathan Brown looks at the ongoing Gaza military operation and suggests the question is not “tell me how this end” but “tell me how this will evolve.”  And that the answers are still a bit hazy. He argues many of the uncertainties are known: What will Israel actually accomplish? How many more people will die? How serious are the growing signs of U.S.-Israel tension? But to know more about likely trajectories, he tries to answer five questions that may only be answered by events.

• “Israel Could Lose”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Most discussions about the war in Gaza assume that, in the end, Israel will win. The stakes are so high for Israel, and Israel’s edge over Hamas is so large that any outcome other than victory is unthinkable. The only questions are in what timeframe and at what cost. And yet it is quite possible that the war in Gaza will be the first war in Israel’s history that the army has fought and lost. That loss would be catastrophic for Israel and deeply damaging to the United States. Precisely because of that, it must be considered.

China

• “Can China Catch Up with Greece?”  New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Liberty Street Economics Blog

  China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even given generous assumptions concerning future growth fundamentals, China appears likely to close only a fraction of the gap with high-income countries in the years ahead.

Economics and Business

• “Report to Congress: Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States”  U.S. Department of Treasury

  The Treasury Department presents an in-depth study of international economic and exchange rate policy over the last four quarters through June 2023.

• “The proliferation of corporate war-crimes cases” International Institute for Strategic Studies

  The ongoing criminal trial of former energy executives in Sweden is groundbreaking and marks the first prosecution of corporate leaders for complicity in war crimes since the Nuremberg trials. There is a growing trend in European national courts to attempt to hold corporate leaders responsible for alleged human-rights violations abroad, but in doing so, prosecutors must navigate legal complexities and challenges. 

• “If markets are right about long real rates, public debt ratios will increase for some time. We must make sure that they do not explode”   Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Peterson’s Senior Researcher Olivier Blanchard looks at debt ratios globally – and also specifically at the US – and outlines the risk of those ratios exploding upward.

List of the Week 

Number of China’s Wealthy Falls Amid Property Crisis 

The number of Chinese individuals worth more than 5 billion yuan ($690 million) has fallen 15% from its peak in 2021, reflecting the property crisis-plagued economic slowdown and competitive e-commerce landscape.  The Shanghai-based Hurun Research Institute recently released a list of China's wealthiest individuals.  All told the total wealth of the 1,241 individuals on the list dropped by 4% to $3.2 trillion compared to last year, with some 898 individuals seeing their worth decline or remain unchanged.  Who are China’s wealthiest? Here is the top ten:

The Global Week Ahead

November 12 - 19, 2023

The future of US-China relations will be the primary focus this week of markets and much of the rest of the world.  As the APEC Leaders’ Summit commences in San Francisco, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet for four hours later this week.  The range of issues is rather enormous: Trade, mutual security concerns, North Korea, the Ukraine War, the ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza, just to name a few.  While no major breakthroughs or “deliverables” are expected to emerge, just having the two leaders meet is a significant step in repairing an otherwise increasingly tattered bilateral situation between the two nations.

The situations in Gaza and Ukraine will continue to dominate leadership meetings – particularly among EU foreign ministers who will be meeting later this week.  Funding issues for Ukraine will continue to be a dominant point of discussion among Western nations, particularly as the US Congress continues to vacillate between passing a new aid package requested by President Biden or cutting back on funding. 

All of which brings us to the state of play in Congress this week.  Washington is returning to the increasingly common crisis mode over budgetary affairs as the Federal Government faces a shutdown at midnight on November 17.  Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is expected to push for a “laddered” set of Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to keep the government open as they try to pass appropriations bills – a confusing concept, but as we understand it, each time an appropriation bill gets passed by the House and Senate, an extension of the CR would be made available.  Sort of like holding a carrot on a stick in front of a donkey to get it to pull the cart.  But none of this may come to pass as a growing number of House Republicans are lining up to oppose such an approach as the civil war within the Republican Party continues to fester.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Biden-Xi meeting may be the single biggest economic indicator of the week.  Beyond that, markets will be watching as China publishes its industrial production and retail sales reports as well as its 1-year MLF rate announcement.

Markets will also be looking at the US CPI print and retail sales report this week to see if inflation is indeed coming down and staying down. There will also be many Fed speeches this week, perhaps most notably a US Treasury Markets Conference hosted by the New York Fed.

In Europe, the UK will also be releasing inflation prints and Germany will be revealing important business sentiment surveys.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Finance ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will meet in San Francisco, California, ahead of the official meeting on Nov. 16-17.

• Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with the European Roundtable of Industrialist in Stuttgart, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The Dubai Airshow begins in Dubai, UAE and runs through November 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 13, 2023

Global

• APEC Finance Ministers will meet in San Francisco, California in advance of the leaders meeting this week.

• OPEC Monthly Report

• The World Economic Forum Cybersecurity meeting will take place in Geneva Switzerland through November 15.

• The Web Summit will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.  More than 1000 industry speakers are expected to address the conference, considered the biggest in the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. President Joe Biden hosts his Indonesian counterpart, Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, at the White House in Washington. The two leaders will discuss the clean energy transition and advancing economic prosperity, among other issues, according to the White House. Widodo said he also will repeat a call for a cease-fire and delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza during the meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give introductory remarks at the Federal Reserve Board 5th Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics, Washington, D.C.

• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (October), Monthly Budget Statement

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

• Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2023 Summit is held through November 14 in San Francisco, California.

• Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Asia-Pacific Climate Week 2023, a meeting taking place ahead of COP28, which will be held in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, from Monday through Friday.

• Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe is due to present the country's budget for next year.  This will be a particularly challenging budget cycle as the island nation faces stiff pressure from the IMF to stick to austere budgets to meet IMF conditions while the nation’s citizens are getting increasingly exhausted by the draconian measures put into place already.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan PPI (October), Machine Tool Orders (October)

• India Inflation (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Acting Assistant Governor Maron Kohler will give a speech at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney, Australia.

• New Zealand Composite NZI PCI (October),Services NZI PSI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets through November 14 in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Israel, the Ukraine War, the “policy dimensions of economic security”, and ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.  

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts EU leaders including Council President Charles Michel for dinner to informally discuss EU and geopolitical issues.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Housing Ministers through November 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Catherine Mann gives a speech at Oxford University entitled “Climate and monetary policy. In particular on transition policies and their macroeconomic effects and monetary policy’ implications.”

• Germany Current Account (September)

• Ireland Construction PMI (October)

• Romania Inflation (October), Current Account (September)

• Hungary Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

• Slovakia Construction Output (September)

• Serbia Inflation (October)

• Poland Current Account (September), Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Independence Day is traditionally celebrated in West Bank and Gaza by Palestinians.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Current (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Budget Balance (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Tech Festival will be held in Cape Town, South Africa. Speakers are expected to include the country’s minister of digital technology and Guinea’s minister of digital economy. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Angola Inflation (October)

• Mozambique Inflation (October) 

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Global

• International Energy Agency Oil Market Report

• In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on United Nations peacekeeping operations: Police Commissioners. This afternoon, the Security Council is also scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 2140 sanctions, Somalia, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) and the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). 

• The APEC CEO Summit takes place in San Francisco, California through November 16.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Politico holds their annual Defense Summit in Washington, D.C.  Congressional leaders overseeing defense budgets will be speaking and will likely shed light on the ongoing efforts to boost aid to Ukraine and Israel.

• The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds the release of its 2023 Annual Report to Congress.  The congressionally mandated panel is expected to issue a tough report detailing China’s Increasingly Global Legal Reach, China’s United Front and Propaganda Work China’s Relations with Foreign Militaries, a general overviews of U.S.-China economic and trade relations, and issues related to security, politics, and foreign affairs.

Economic Reports/Events –

• U.S Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech at the Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility (virtual)

• US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Washington, D.C.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give brief opening remarks before virtual "Conversations on Central Banking: The Unequal Burden of Inflation" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in conversation on the economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

• US Inflation (October), CPI (October), NFIB Business Optimism Index (October), Redbook (November 11)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Inflation (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to meet his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in San Francisco, California.  While the meeting will be seen by markets as significant step to improving relations, no major announcements or breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting.

• ASEAN Defense ministers will meet in Jakarta as tensions rise over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The bloc will also hold the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus on Thursday, with eight "dialogue partner" countries, including the U.S., China, Japan, and India.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• India WPI Food Index (October),WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October),WPI Manufacturing (October)

• South Korea Import and Export Prices (October)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November), NAB Business Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel at the SNB-FRB-BIS Third High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility in Zurich, Switzerland.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will give a keynote speech at the "MiCAR and its coordination with existing EU financial markets legislation" conference in Venice, Italy.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give the opening keynote speech on "The need for climate action and the role of the financial sector" at the Sustainable Finance Conference organized by the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium 

• Eurozone Employment (Q3), GDP (Q3)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)

• UK Unemployment (September), Labor Productivity (Q3)

• Spain CPI (October), Inflation (October)

• Poland GDP (Q3)

• Bulgaria GDP (Q3)

• Hungary GDP (Q3)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

• Slovakia GDP (Q30

• Romania GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September)

• Slovenia GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Liberia will hold a presidential runoff election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Unemployment (Q3)

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 1267/1989/2253 Committee, the 1373 Committee, and the 1540 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Rupert Murdoch will step down as Chair of News Corporation.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.

• US PPI (October), Retail Sales (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 10), Retail Inventories (September), NOPA Crush Report

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (September),New Motor Vehicles Sales (September),Wholesale Sales (September)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

• Peru GDP (September), Unemployment (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Production (October),Retail Sales (Q3), Industrial Production (October), Unemployment (October), People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

• Japan GDP (Q3), Capacity Utilization (September), Industrial Production (September)

• Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

• Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets Brussels.  They will discuss reforming European electoral law, the upcoming December European Council, EU-UK relations, and the rule of law in Poland.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with members of the Central Election Commission and heads of regional election commissions.

• French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Switzerland through Nov. 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

• Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (October)

• France Unemployment (Q3), Inflation (October)

• Italy Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• UK Inflation (October), PPI (October), Retail Price Index (October)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (September)

• Slovakia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

• Bulgaria Inflation (October)

• Poland Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

• Montenegro Inflation (September)

• Serbia Building Permits (September), Current Account (September)

• Russia GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Auto Production (October), Budget Balance (October)

• Qatar GDP (Q2)

• Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation (October),

• Saudi Arabia Inflation (October),Wholesale Prices (October)

• Egypt Unemployment (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Ethiopia will host the African Economic Conference in Addis Ababa. 

• Financial industry leaders will gather in Lome, Togo, for the two-day annual Africa Financial Industry Summit to discuss solutions to the challenges faced by the finance sector.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Retail Sales (September)

• Botswana Inflation (October)

• Nigeria Food Inflation (October), Inflation (October)

Thursday, November 16, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the Afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil Pinto will hold talks in Moscow, Russia. 

• The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will meet to vote on the “special assessment” that banks will be charged to replenish the deposit fund following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders.

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research will host their eleventh annual financial stability conference through November 17. This year’s conference, Financial Stability in Times of Macroeconomic Uncertainty, will be held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Virtual attendance is also available. Panelists will discuss risks to financial stability from a range of sources including uninsured deposits, the commercial real estate market, and climate risk exposures of insurers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech on Global Linkages and Spillovers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference – Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World, San Francisco, California

• US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a panel discussion on bank supervision and regulation at the Seventh Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (virtual).

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller give a speech on Central Bank Digital Currency at the 2nd Conference on the Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency by the Bank of Canada and Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the in 2023 U.S. Treasury Markets Conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr will participate.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give introductory remarks before hybrid 2023 Financial Stability Conference: "Financial Stability in Times of Macroeconomic Uncertainty" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

• US Import and Exports Prices (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November 11), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (November), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (November), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Manufacturing Production (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (November)

• Canada Housing Starts (October)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China House Price Index (October0

• Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Employment (October)

• Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMIs (October)

• Hong Kong Unemployment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Berlin.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Systemic Risk Board holds the 7th Annual Conference on System Risk virtually.  Speakers will include ECB President Christine Lagarde, US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, and other leading global regulators.

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will give a  pre-recorded welcome remarks at the 7th annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board in Frankfurt, Germany 

• ECB Board Members Andrea Enria  and Luis de Guindos will participate in a panel at the 7th annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board in Frankfurt, Germany .

• Bank of England Advisor Randall Krozsner gives a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2023 Financial Stability Conference in Cleveland, Ohio.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks at the 7th Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board entitled ‘Financial stability challenges ahead: emerging risks and regulation” virtually.

• Italy Balance of Trade (October)

• Bulgaria Current Account (September)

• Hungary CPI (October), Inflation (October)

• Slovakia Inflation (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Inflation (October)

• Israel GDP (Q3)

• Turkey Financial Stability Report, FX Reserves (November 10)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar will hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation (October)

• South Africa Building Permits (September)

Friday, November 17, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. federal government will shut down at midnight if Congress does not approve a new budget or temporary Continuing Resolution (CR) in time.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to give closing keynote before the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee to speak on the economy before Annual Community Bankers Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

• US Building Permits (October), Housing Starts (October)

• Canada PPI (October), Raw Materials Prices (October)

• Chile GDP (Q3)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan, until Nov. 20.

• India's Madhya Pradesh state will hold assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India Bank Loan Growth(November 3), Deposit Growth (November 3)

• New Zealand PPIs (Q3)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (Q3)

• Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will give a keynote speech at the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress "Navigating in a World at Risk of Fragmentation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in an online round table on the digital euro organized by the Greens/EFA in the European Parliament.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will give the keynote at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London.

• The Frankfurt European Banking Conference will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Eurozone Current Account (September), Inflation (October),  CPI (October)

• Spain Balance of Trade (September)

• UK Retail Sales (October)

• Italy Current Account (September)

• Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• The 2nd European Union-Angola Business Forum will be held in Luanda, Angola.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola FX Reserves (October), M3 Money Supply (October) 

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Foreign Direct Investment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Latvia celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day the country declared independence from Russia in 1918 – which they did again 72 years late when the Soviet Union broke up.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing signficant to report.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Sunday, November 19, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

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The Global Week Ahead

November 5 - 12, 2023

This week, markets will focus heavily on the APEC Summit in San Francisco, California.  It begins at the end of the week, and President Biden will have a bilateral side meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While no significant diplomatic or trade breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting, it will be seen by markets as further solidification of the "floor" that is being built under U.S.-China relations, which have been in a spiral for several years.   But we will also be watching to see if rumored diplomatic meetings begin this week, as well, between U.S. and Chinese diplomats on a nuclear arms control agreement.

The Israeli-Gaza War continues to grip the attention of the world, and it will be the focus of numerous other meetings around the world this week.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Seoul, South Korea, and Japan for the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting, and then India for the India-US 2+2 meetings (with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin), where the situation in Gaza will be a primary focus as well as the ongoing Ukraine War.   We would also note that an emergency meeting of the Arab League will take place later this week at the request of the Palestinian Authority to find a way to bring peace.

The European Union will release a report this week assessing the status of several nations seeking E.U. membership, most notably Ukraine.  The report will likely recommend moving forward with Ukrainian integration into the EU.

In the U.S., Tuesday will see several states holding elections, most notably in Virginia, where Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin seeks to win Republican control of the State Senate.  Many observers believe that if Younkin's efforts are successful – entirely flipping Virginia from being a completely Democratic-controlled state to a completely Republican state at the governor's, Lt. Governors, Attorney Generals, Virginia State House of Delegates, and the State Senate – we may see him move to jump into the Presidential campaign.  All this happens as current Republican presidential candidates gather in Miami for the 3rd presidential debates.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching China inflation data being released Thursday, along with significant data releases from Japan and meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and several other central banks.  The U.S. is light on economic data this week, but we will see several Fed Governors giving significant speeches on the economic outlook.  Other leading central bankers – including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, along with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda – will be speaking at various conferences this week, as well.

 Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.  

Monday, November 6, 2023

Global

• New York Federal Reserve Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

• The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will launch the flagship report "The State of Food and Agriculture 2023", which will be held under the theme "Revealing the true cost of food to transform agri-food systems"

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US and China may begin formal nuclear weapons arms control talks.  This has yet to be confirmed.

• The Milken Institute hosts the 2023 Future of Health Summit through November 8 in Washington, D.C.  Leading healthcare CEOs and government officials are scheduled to speak.

• Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to appear on the witness stand in his New York fraud trial.

• The Dominican Republic celebrates Constitution Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech at Duke University on Financial Stability in Durham, North Carolina.

• Canada Ivey PMI (October)

• Brazil Current Account (September), FDI (September)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

• The 32nd  Pacific Islands Forum begins in the Cook Islands. This is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to enhance cooperation between the territories and countries of Oceania.  Climate change, trade, and mutual security are the top items on the agenda.

• Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia. Hosted by the government of Malaysia, the conference is a regional collaboration platform to provide region-focused efforts on energy systems and industry; cities, urban and rural settlements, infrastructure, and transport; land, ocean, food, and water; societies, health, and livelihoods; and economies.

• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority Finance Summit begins and runs through November 7. Top global bankers and asset managers from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BlackRock, Sequoia China, and alike will be attending Hong Kong's second global financial leaders' investment summit. Participants are invited to a welcome dinner before the event's official start on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank PMIs (October)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (October)

• Indonesia GDP (Q3)

• Thailand Inflation (October)

• Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European Council President Charles Michel, EU President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola participate in the EU Ambassadors Conference 2023.

• EU Ministers who are responsible for space programs hold an informal meeting through November 7 in Sevilla, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

• Germany Factory Orders (September), HCOB PMIs (October)

• France HCOB PMIs (September)

• UK New Car Sales (October), S&P/CIPS Construction PMI (October)

• Spain HCOB PMIs (October)

• Italy HCOB PMIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Amman, Jordan, to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and the Republic of Senegal will hear the preliminary ruling on the dissolution of his political party in the Ecowas Court of Justice on Monday.

• Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kubela will visit South Africa on Monday. He’ll meet with foreign affairs minister Naledi Pandor in Pretoria.  South Africa has been supportive of Russia’s war efforts and has been accused on several occasions of supplying weapons to Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Global

• G7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Tokyo through November 8.  The Israel-Hamas War will be the dominant issue, as well as the Ukraine War.

• The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) launches the Least Development Countries Report 2023. This annual report provides a comprehensive and authoritative source of socio-economic analysis and data on the world´s most impoverished countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. voters go to the polls in Kentucky and Mississippi to elect new governors and in New Jersey and Virginia to decide who controls their respective state legislatures.  In Ohio, a closely watched proposed state constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights is up for a vote.  We are closely watching the Virginia races as many expect Governor Glenn Younkin (R) to be successful in leading Republicans to flip control of the Virginia Senate; he may make a late entry into the presidential race.

• Chile will formally end its draft Constitution revisions, and the final proposal will be presented to President Gabriel Boric in advance of a national vote on December 17.  Like the last draft constitution, polls are suggesting voters will reject this version.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on financial technology at the 7th Annual DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Using Economic Data to Understand the Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Conference: Beyond the Numbers 2023 in St. Louis, Missouri.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on financial stability at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference 2023: Achieving Good Outcomes in an Uncertain World, Dublin 4, Ireland

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams is the moderator of a hybrid discussion organized by the Economic Club of New York.

• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give opening keynote before the "Energy and the Economy: Reshuffling the Energy Deck" conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.  At the conference luncheon, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will speak.

• US Imports/Exports (September), Redbook (November 4), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November), Total Household Debt (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (September), Used Car Prices (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)

• The Bank of Canada hosts its annual John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture. Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, CBB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (September), Gross Debt to GDP (September), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

• Mexico Auto Exports & Production (October)

• Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Costa Rica Inflation (October)

• Argentina Industrial Production (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Elections in two Indian states (Mizoram and Chhattisgarsh) begins today with a second round of voting on November 17.  These are highly competitive races and will help shape the 2024 national general elections.

• The 6th India-Malaysia Joint Commission Meeting is scheduled to take place in New Delhi. Representatives of the two countries will discuss  the progress of their "enhanced strategic partnership" in areas such as defense, trade and investment, health and technology. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Malaysian counterpart Zambry Abdul Kadir are set to co-chair the meeting.

• Nikkei and Swiss Business School IMD host a two-day Global Management Dialogue in Tokyo.  Business leaders – including the CEOs of Morgan Stanley, Intel, and other major corporations will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Japan Household Spending (September)

• Taiwan Inflation (October)

• Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

• Philippines Inflation (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Indonesia FX Reserves (October)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

• Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Jordanian King Hussein in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Israel.

• In Brussels, train staff will go on strike through November 9 over pay.

• King Charles to conduct his first state opening of the UK Parliament as monarch.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat with  Héctor Flórez, President of Deloitte, at "30 Encuentro del Sector Financiero" organized by Deloitte and ABC in Madrid, Spain.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in the panel "Global Economic Outlook: Is the Banking Sector Responding Effectively?" at the 19th Annual Cyprus Summit, "Cyprus’s new roadmap and strategy for sustainable balance" in Nicosia, Cyprus.

• Bank of England Executive Director Sasha Mills will give a speech at the ISDA Derivatives Trading Forum in London.

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (October), PPI (September)

• Germany Industrial Production (September), HCOB Construction PMI (October)

• France HCOB Construction PMI (October)

• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (October), Halifax House Price Index (October)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (October)

• Greece Balance of Trade (September)

• Spain Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Production (September)

• Switzerland Unemployment (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Hungary Industrial Production (September)

• Poland FX Reserves (October)

• Ukraine FX Reserves (October)

• Russia Monetary Policy Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar GDP (Q2)

• Israel Business Confidence (October)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Liberia holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa FX Reserves (October)

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision  

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 2140 Committee (focused on Yemen and sanctions placed on the country) and another briefing on ICC Libya.

• The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and partners will launch the 2023 Production Gap Report, which tracks the misalignment between global levels of fossil fuel production being planned and projected by governments and those consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature limit. 

• Reuters holds its annual Leadership Summit & Global Broadcast in New York.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be a keynote speaker and may shed light on the UN’s plans for trying to bring peace to Israel and Gaza.

• The Financial Times hosts the 7th Global Boardroom Conference in London.  Among the speakers will be ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and numerous global CEOs and government officials.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Republican Presidential candidates gather in Miami, Florida, for the 3rd Presidential Debate.  To qualify for the debate, candidates must have at least 4 percent in two national polls or 4 percent in one national poll as well as 4 percent in at least two early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders (NAAHL) – Annual Policy & Practice Conference, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives closing remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give a keynote before the hybrid event, "Research and Statistics at 100: A Look at the Past, Present, and Future" organized by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

• US MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 3), Wholesale Inventories (September)

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

• Brazil Retail Sales (September), Car Production (October)

• Chile Inflation (October)

• Ecuador Inflation (October)

• Peru Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Seoul, South Korea.  This is the first time he has visited since 2021, and he is expected to discuss bilateral economic and security issues as well as mutual concern over North Korea’s agreement to sell weapons and ammunition to Russia.

• European Commission Industry Chief Thierry Breton will visit China through November 11.  This follows a series of visits by other senior European Commissioners in recent months seeking greater dialogue over trade fights.

• Bloomberg hosts its New Economy Forum in Singapore through November 10.  A number of senior government officials and business leaders will be speaking, including the Saudi Minister of Investment, the Singapore Prime Minister, and global investment bank CEOs.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda participates in a discussion with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference in London.

• China FX Reserves (October)

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (November), FX Reserves (October), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

• South Korea Current Account (September)

• Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations (Q4)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)

• Philippines FX Reserves (October)

• Malaysia Construction Output (Q3), Unemployment (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with Hungarian President Kataalin Novák at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Novák has said “Hungary is no rush” to ratify Sweden’s bid to join NATO, the last member to hold out.

• The EU Commission is expected to release a report on the progress of several countries – including Ukraine – toward achieving EU membership.   This will lead to a decision by the European Commission on December 14 on which countries to grant admission.  Aside from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are leading candidates.

• In the UK, a ban on the use of laughing gas will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  The scheduled agenda includes discussions over macroeconomic development, including inflation, the state of play of fiscal policy coordination, and overall Euro area competitiveness.

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Baily will give the keynote speech at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech and participates on a panel entitled "Unravelling the Puzzle of Sluggish Productivity Growth: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects for Europe" at the Latvijas Banka Economic Conference 2023 "A Recipe for Economic Growth" in Riga, Latvia

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey

• Eurozone Retail Sales (September)

• Germany Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Current Account (September), FX Reserves (October)

• Italy Retail Sales (September)

• Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Slovakia Retail Sales (September)

• Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Retail Sales (September)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (September), Retail Sales (October), PPI (October), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Russia Vehicle Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel FX Reserves (October), Budget Balance (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Africa Investment Forum’s annual Market Days begins and runs through November 10.  It will bring together investors, business and government leaders, and heads of development finance institutions in Marrakech, Morocco

Economic Reports/Events –

• Tanzania Inflation (October) 

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council will hold a meeting to elect members of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The meeting is done independently from, but concurrently with, the General Assembly.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on the importance of surveys and how the survey data informs the economic outlook and policy views before the Central Bank Business Survey Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's New Orleans Branch.

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to discuss virtually the "Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Policy" in a Market News International webinar.

• St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Interim President Kathleen O'Neill Paese to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before an event co-sponsored by the Association for Corporate Growth Kentucky, Financial Executives International Louisville, and CFA Society Louisville.

• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 4), WASDE Report, US Crop Report

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

• Paraguay Inflation (October)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The US and India will hold the US-India 2+2 Meetings in New Delhi.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Indian counterparts, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Secretary Rajnath Singh, to discuss the situation in Israel and Ukraine.

• Cambodia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  It commemorates the country’s independence from France in 1953.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation (October), PPI (October)

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Japan Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October), Eco Watchers Survey (October)

• Philippines GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September)

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

• Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) Development Bank in Berlin, Germany.

• Today is the 85th  anniversary of the pogrom against the country’s Jewish population, known as Reichskristallnacht or the Night of Broken Glass. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will give a speech in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting agenda includes a review of economic governance, the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Faculty.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives opening remarks (virtual) at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany,.

• UK RICS House Price Balance (October)

• Italy CPI (October), Inflation (October)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (September), Budget Balance (October)

• Romania Balance of Trade (September)

• Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

• Bulgaria Balance of Trade (September)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (September)

• Russia FX Reserves (October)

• Ukraine Inflation (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

• Turkey FX Reserves (November 3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar was scheduled to hold presidential elections today, but they have been postponed to November 16 due to social unrest.

• The Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF), organized by Afrexim Bank in partnership with the African Union Commission and the African Continental Free Trade Area secretariat, begins in Cairo, Egypt.  It will run through November 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production (September), Mining Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

Friday, November 10, 2023

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Veterans Day is observed in the U.S. a federal holiday.

• Panama celebrates “Primer Grito de Indepencia,” a public holiday.  It commemorates the first call for national independence in 1821.

• The U.S. Marine Corps celebrates its birthday day, having been established by the Continental Congress in 1775.  OORAH!

Economic Reports/Events –

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on "Economic Mobility and Challenges in the Community" before the Mobile Chamber of Commerce, Mobile, Alabama.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

• Brazil Inflation (October), Business Confidence (November)

• Mexico Industrial Production (September)

• El Salvador PPI (October), Inflation (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (Interest Rate Decision)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)

• Philippines FDI (August)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

• Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times' Global Boardroom 2023 in London, UK.

• UK GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Balance of Trade (September), NIERS Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

• Italy Industrial Production (September)

• Greece Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

• Ireland Industrial Production (September)

• Hungary Inflation (October)

• Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Slovenia Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

• Bulgaria Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Kosovo Inflation (October)

• Russia Balance of Trade (September), Inflation (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Inflation (October)

• Turkey Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September)

• Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Global

• The U.S. hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in San Francisco.

• Today is Remembrance Day (also known as Poppy Day), observed by Commonwealth nations, commemorating the end of World War I.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Vehicle Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The Arab League will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for emergency consultations on the situation in Gaza.  Foreign ministers from the League membership will gather to talk and seek solutions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Angola celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  The day celebrates the country’s victory over Portuguese military forces and the establishment of the new government in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.