U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

November 6 - 10, 2023

It is another busy week ahead on the U.S. financial regulatory front.  Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr makes two more speeches this week, both in defense of the Fed’s recent rulemaking changes to the Community Reinvestment Act.  Barr gave two speeches last week in defense of the changes, and this coming week, he will be joined by Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, who will also give a speech defending the change.  Clearly, regulators are anticipating legal challenges to the regulations and are making a full-throated public defense of them.

Also, this week, SIFMA holds its annual conference in Washington.  Most of the major financial regulatory heads will be speaking, and we expect some news to emerge on various regulatory issues.  The SIFMA event is being held while the D.C. FinTech Week conference is being held, where regulators – including SEC Chair Gary Gensler, Vice Chair Barr, and OCC Acting Chair Hsu – will shuttle over to speak on their respective policy agenda in the fintech space (and in Barr and Hsu’s case, likely again defend the Community Reinvestment Act regulatory changes).

Looking at Congress this week, the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing on U.S. regulators working in the international sphere and what impact it is having on the autonomy of U.S. regulation.  Over in the Senate, the Budget Committee and Finance Committee each hold hearings focused on tax policy, wealthy individuals, and cracking down on their ability to avoid higher taxes.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• November 7, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy will hold a hearing entitled “The Tangled Web of Global Governance: How the Biden Administration is Ceding Authority Over American Financial Regulation”  Witnesses testifying include:

o   Mr. Thomas Hoenig, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Mercatus Center, George Mason University

o   Professor Christina Parajon Skinner, Assistant Professor of Legal Studies & Business Ethics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

o   Mr. Bryan Bashur, Director of Financial Policy, Americans for Tax Reform

o   Ms. Renita Marcellin, Advocacy and Legislative Director, Americans for Financial Reform

• November 7, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing entitled “Ensuring that ‘Woke’ Doesn’t Leave Americans Broke: Protecting Seniors and Savers from ESG Activism.”  No witnesses have been announced yet.

U.S. Senate

• November 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Fairness and Fiscal Responsibility: Cracking Down on Wealthy Tax Cheats”  Witnesses include:

o   Dr. Natasha Sarin, Professor Of Law And Finance, Yale Law School & Yale School Of Management

o   Dr. Nathaniel Hendren, Professor Of Economics and Co-Founder Of Policy Impacts, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology

o   Mr. Chris Edwards, Kilts Family Chair In Fiscal Studies, Cato Institute

• November 9, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing entitled: “Examining How the Tax Code Affects High-Income Individuals and Tax Planning Strategies”  Witnesses include:

o   Chye-Ching Huang, Director, Tax Law Center, New York University School of Law

o   Morris Pearl, Chair, Patriotic Millionaires

o   William McBride, Ph.D., Vice President Of Federal Tax Policy And Stephen J. Entin Fellow In Economics, Tax Foundation

o   Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Ph.D., President, American Action Forum

U.S. Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• November 6, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on financial stability at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.

• November 7, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Financial Technology at the DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

• November 7, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on Using Economic Data to Understand the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Conference: Beyond the Numbers 2023 in St. Louis, Missouri.

• November 8 – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on financial stability at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference 2023: Achieving Good Outcomes in an Uncertain World, Dublin 4, Ireland

• November 8, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

• November 8, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders (NAAHL) – Annual Policy & Practice Conference, Washington, D.C.

• November 8, 4:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives closing remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

• November 9, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference hosted by the IMF in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• November 7, 12:45 p.m.: SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the SIFMA Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C.

• November 8, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal will participate in a fireside chat at the Practicing Law Institute’s 55th Annual Institute on Securities Regulation in New York.  Other senior SEC staff will be participating in panels throughout the three-day conference.

• November 8, 11:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat for DC FinTech Week.

• November 9, 2:00 p.m.:  The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• November 6, 9:00 a.m. – The  CFTC holds a meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee.  The agenda includes:

Presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving U.S. Treasury market reforms, global standards and best practices for market volatility controls and circuit breakers, improving liquidity across asset classes, and international alignment of trading and clearing obligations to address market fragmentation, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Technical Issues Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving international standardization and amalgamation of trade reporting for swaps market oversight, global coordination of market events, and improving efficiencies in post-trade processes, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving industry standards and best practices for tokenized asset markets, the regulation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and utility tokens, and identification of other issues to address in digital finance and tokenization of assets, non-financial activities and Web3, and blockchain technology and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams.

• November 8, 9:25 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the 7th  Annual DC Fintech Week Conference in Washington, D.C.

• November 8, 4:20 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a fireside chat with FinCEN’s Kevin O’Connor at TRM Labs’ Crypto Law Enforcement Summit in Washington, D.C.

• November 10, 11:00 a.m. (South Korea) – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat titled “Proposals for Innovation of Digital Asset Regulation” at the Blockchain Week in Busan 2023.

• November 11, 10:50 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a bipartisan panel, Explore Pathways to Pursue a Presidential Appointment, at the 2023 National Asian Pacific American Bar Association (NABAPA) Convention in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• November 7, 10:20 a.m. – Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will participate in a conversation with Bloomberg TV host Romaine Bostick at the DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

• November 8, 2:00 p.m. – Acting Comptroller Michael J. Hsu will participate in a panel discussion on the Community Reinvestment Act during the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders Annual Policy & Practice Conference in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• November 9, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to hear the report of the Office of Equal Employment Opportunity and Inclusion Report Concerning Native Americans and Veterans.  They will then move to vote on the Conservators and Receivers Final Rule.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• November 5 -8 – The American Bankers Association Agricultural Bankers Conference is being held in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

• November 6 – 7: SIFMA holds its Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C. A number of regulators and senior policymakers will be speaking.

Think Tanks

• November 6, 9:00 a.m. – The Wilson Center holds its 2023 Canada-U.S. Legal Issues Symposium on "Economic Sanctions Enforcement and Compliance in Canada and the United States."

• November 6 – 8 – DC FinTech Week is held in Washington, D.C.  The Conference is sponsored by Fannie Mae, the Financial Technology Association, the Bank for International Settlements, and a number of leading tech companies.

• November 7: The ISDA Derivatives Trading Forum is being held in London.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

November 3 - 5, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Middle East

• “Why Russia and Hamas Are Growing Closer”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The Kremlin purports to take a hard stance on terrorism. Yet since the massacre in southern Israel carried out by Hamas militants on October 7, it has only grown closer to the group.  Moscow’s relationship with the militant group Hamas is part of a Middle East strategy meant to boost its standing in the Global South: an effort that has long involved building ties with both Israel and its sworn enemies.

• “What Can the IDF Do about Hamas Tunnels?”  The Urban Warfare Project Podcast

  As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a ground campaign in Gaza, the threat of Hamas tunnels  - estimated to be as much as 600 miles long – will be one of the most significant challenges to contend with. But how many of these tunnels are there? What can Israeli forces do about the tunnels when they encounter them? In this episode, host John Spencer talks to Dr. Daphne Richemond-Barak, the world’s preeminent expert on tunnel warfare. She is a professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy at Reichman University, author of the book Underground Warfare, and creator of the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare.

• “The Persian-Russian Connection”  Lawfare

  Tehran’s ties to Russia are growing, making Iran a stronger force in the region and increasing the danger it poses to the United States and its allies. From Tehran’s perspective, an informal alliance with Russia is ideologically and historically odd, but it is strategically enticing. Iran and Russia have been rivals for almost two centuries, and Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, hated the Soviet Union almost as much as he hated the United States. Moscow’s interest in Tehran is a bit harder to explain. It starts with a range of common interests that are generally anti-U.S., opposed to democratic values, and wary of Sunni Muslim fundamentalism. 

• “The Decolonization Narrative Is Dangerous and False”  The Atlantic

  It does not accurately describe either the foundation of Israel or the tragedy of the Palestinians. The decolonization narrative has dehumanized Israelis to the extent that otherwise rational people excuse, deny, or support barbarity. It holds that Israel is an “imperialist-colonialist” force, that Israelis are “settler-colonialists,” and that Palestinians have a right to eliminate their oppressors. (On October 7, we all learned what that meant.) It casts Israelis as “white” or “white-adjacent” and Palestinians as “people of color.”  This ideology, powerful in the academy but long overdue for serious challenge, is a toxic, historically nonsensical mix of Marxist theory, Soviet propaganda, and traditional anti-Semitism from the Middle Ages and the 19th century. 

China 

• “China Expands Its Political Influence in Russia East of the Urals”  The Jamestown Foundation

  Beijing is increasing its political influence in Siberia and the Russian Far East to better support its expanding economic activities. These efforts are directed at the political and business elites, who are the major stakeholders in deciding which firms can operate in their respective regions. These tactics have generated both local and regional concerns in Russia. Chinese efforts are generating resistance from the local populations that resent their regional leaders kowtowing to China.

Political Economy

• “The New Economy Security State”  Foreign Affairs

  In the past decade, economics and national security have collided, turning government inside out and upside down. The definition of security has expanded beyond matters related to warfare and terrorism, as previously disregarded economic and environmental problems such as food insecurity, energy shortages, inflation, and climate change have moved to the “very core” of the official U.S. National Security Strategy. To address the new problems of economic security and avoid a downward spiral that could threaten the global economy, U.S. officials must reckon with a major task: nothing less than a transformation of the U.S. government. The past offers the wrong guidance, and the current predicament calls for an exacting reassessment.

• “Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade”   IMF Working Papers

  Are geopolitical tensions leading to a reversal in globalization? Using U.N. voting patterns from 1948 to 2021 to measure geopolitical similarity, Serhan Cevik of the International Monetary Fund finds that trade relationships were “resilient to occasional shifts in the geopolitical landscape” and that the geopolitical alignment between countries had statistically insignificant effects on their level of trade. The physical distance between countries and their respective levels of income were much more important factors, with proximity and higher incomes predicting increased trade between countries. Cevik argues that despite recent shocks, “the widely used indicators of globalization...have rebounded strongly,” and thus, “there is no systemic retreat in trade globalization due to geopolitical developments.”

Chart of the Week

Talking Politics at Work is Increasingly Cool for Gen Z

Bloomberg reported recently how various generations feel about talking about politics at work.  According to a recent survey by Glassdoor, “Gen Z” (those born in the late 1990’s and early 2010’s) are increasingly comfortable bringing up the topic of politics.  According to Glassdoor,  three in five US workers have done so with colleagues over the last year.  Millennials (born in the early 1980s to the early 200’s) and Gen X (born in the late 1960s to early 1980s) feel even more comfortable beating Baby Boomers (born from 1946 to 1964). 

Interestingly, roughly 50 percent of Gen Z workers said they would not apply for a job at a company where the CEO supports a political candidate they disagree with – in contrast with Millennials (40 percent taking that stance) and Gen X and Baby Boomers (both roughly at 30 percent with that view).

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 30 - November 3, 2023

There are four significant events we are watching closely this week.  First, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s is giving not one but two speeches on November 3rd on the Fed’s recent expansion of Community Reinvestment Act regulations.  It is unusual to see the Fed so quickly step out publicly like this to defend and try to explain themselves.  But Barr has good reason to move quickly: Banks are not happy with the move and are likely to file lawsuits to block the rules.

The second significant event this week is happening at the Commodities Futures Trade Commission.  They are holding an open meeting to consider a proposed rule on Investment of Customer Funds by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations.  The draft rule has yet to be released but we will be sending it around as soon as it is published.

The third event is the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s meeting on Friday where they are expected to discuss designations of nonbanks as well as the FSOC’s framework for identifying stability risk. They will then go into a closed meeting to discuss the state of the commercial real estate market.  What is said and done behind closed doors may be more important than the open meeting.

Finally, the fourth event will happen at the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday.  The full committee convenes for a hearing examining SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s aggressive regulatory agenda.   This is all part of a new onslaught of heightened opposition among House Republicans (and more than a few Democrats) to many of Gensler’s proposals, particularly his climate related regulations.  This past week, Gensler spoke at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and suggested he may scale back his initial climate proposals but did not give details.  The Chamber has already indicated their intention to take the SEC to federal court over the climate proposals and many of Gensler’s other proposals.  Gensler even cracked a joke about the coming lawsuits when he was introduced at the event.

There are other important events happening in the regulatory space this week.  Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives

• November 2, 10:00 a.m.: The full committee holds a hearing entitled “Examining the SEC’s Agenda: Unintended Consequences for U.S. Capital Markets and Investors.”  Hearing details and a list of witnesses will be provided later.

• November 2, 2:00 p.m.: The Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance hold a hearing entitled “The Factors Influencing the High Cost of Insurance for Consumers” Hearing details and a list of witnesses will be provided later.

U.S. Senate

• November 2, 10:00 a.m.:  the full committee holds a hearing entitled “Ensuring Financial Protection for Servicemembers, Veterans, and Their Families.”  Among those testifying will be Mr. Cory Titus, Director of Servicemember Compensation and Veteran Benefits, Military Officers Association of America, and Ms. Kelly Hruska, Government Relations Director, National Military Family Association. 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• November 1 - 2: The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets to consider rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on November 2.

• November 3, 8:00 a.m.: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Housing Conference - Breakfast with Barr: A Conversation About CRA in the 21st Century, Washington, D.C.

• November 3, 3:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr again speaks – this time virtually –  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the New Community Reinvestment Act Rule: What It Means For Communities Around the Country.

U.S. Treasury Department

• November 3, 1:50 p.m.:  The Financial Stability Oversight Council will hold a public meeting to discuss the designations of nonbanks and its framework for identifying financial stability risks. The council will also hold a closed-door meeting where it plans to discuss topics including the commercial real estate market and oversight of the Treasury market.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• November 2, 2:00 p.m.:  The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• November 2, 9:00 a.m.:  The FDIC’s Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion holds panel discussions on the current environment, including industry and market trends that affect consumer participation in the banking system.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• November 1, 9:30 a.m.:  The Commission will hold an open meeting to consider a proposed rule on the Investment of Customer Funds by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations. 

• November 2, 6:15 p.m.: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat to discuss AI regulations, digital assets, and cybersecurity with former FTC Chair William Kovacic, moderated by Nick Elliott and hosted by WSJ.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• No significant events are scheduled.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• October 30, 1:00 p.m.:  The CFPB will hold an event entitled, “Data Enforcers Convening: Remedies and Accountability for Data Misuse and Algorithmic Harm.”

• November 1, 10:00 a.m.: The CFPB’s Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council Appraisal Subcommittee meets to hold its third public hearing on appraisal bias. Witnesses include Robbie Wilson, Chief Appraiser, RSDS LLC, and President, National Society of Real Estate Appraisers, Dean Kelker, Board of Directors, Real Estate Valuation Advocacy Association, Danny Wiley, Senior Director of Single-Family Valuation, Freddie Mac, Lyle E. Radke, Senior Director, Single-Family Collateral Risk, Fannie Mae, Sharon Whitaker, Vice President, CRE & Mortgage Finance, American Bankers Association

National Credit Union Administration

• The NCUA has published the staff draft budget for 2024-2025 in advance of a public briefing on November 16.  You can access the draft budget HERE.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• November 2 -3:  The FTC holds the 16th Annual Microeconomics Conference at the Constitution Center in Washington, D.C. 

• November 3, 9:00 – 4:00 p.m.: The FTC and the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division hold a Public Workshop on the 2023 Draft Merger Guidelines at the University of Chicago Law School, Chicago, Illinois.

Farm Credit Administration

• No significant events are scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 30, 10:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “Is globalization really in retreat?”  Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alan Blinder will speak along with Princeton Professor Stephen Redding and PIIE Scholar Arvind Subramanian.

• October 31 – November 1: The American Enterprise Institute holds its 12th Annual Housing Conference in Washington, D.C.

• November 3, 11:00 a.m.: The Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project holds a webinar entitled “Policies to address a changing rental housing market”

Trade Associations

• November 1- 2: SIFMA Holds its annual Market Structure Conference in New York.  Several senior SEC officials will speak.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

October 29 - November 5, 2023

The escalating situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the attention of the world and financial markets.  But so are the shocking anti-Israel and, clearly, antisemitic protests that have been held around the world in recent days.  Added that are the tense threats to Israel from Turkey, Iran, and other Middle East countries.  The situation is changing by the hour, and we will offer updates as events warrant.   

Meanwhile, there are a number of other significant geopolitical events to watch this week. President Biden will host a Summit of Latin American leaders on Friday to discuss economic growth and try to find ways to work together better to address migration issues.  Also this week, the UK will host the first AI Safety Summit seeking to better understand the threats AI poses and develop a global framework to mitigate those risks.  We expect the White House to issue an Executive Order on AI in conjunction to the Summit.

Also this week, China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November. This comes as Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who met with President Biden last week, travels to China for a four-day official visit.  It signifies a significant de-escalation of tensions between the two countries following a number of years of retaliatory tariffs and sanctions China placed on Australia.  This is the first time an Australian Prime Minister has visited China since 2016.

Finally, this is the first work week for the newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA).  It will be a tough one as the House begins racing to both figure out how to pass another continuing resolution by November 17 or risk a government shutdown as well as begin moving appropriations bills that must be done by December 31.  If Congress fails to pass all 12 appropriations bills, then a 1 percent across the board cut to federal spending will go into effect in January 2024.

On the global economic front, markets are watching closely as the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to consider interest rates.  While markets do not expect another rate increase, they will be listening carefully to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s post-meeting press conference to get a sense of where the Fed is going next on rates.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also meet this week to consider interest rates.  On top of this, it is a heavy week of economic data reports.  The US reports important job numbers this week while China PMIs and a variety of important data reports from Japan are released.  In the EU, we will be watching GDP numbers from Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

• G7 Trade Ministers are meeting in Osaka, Japan.

• As part of his first trip in preparation for COP28, to be held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, UN Secretary-General António Guterres arrives in Nepal at the invitation of the Government.   This will be a visit of solidarity with Nepal, which is the current Chair of the Global Coordination Bureau of the Least Developed Countries.  While in Nepal, the Secretary-General will meet with impacted communities. He is scheduled to have bilateral meetings with President Ramchandra Paudel, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ as well as other senior officials. He will also address a Joint Session of the Parliament.   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Nigeria and Ghana from through Tuesday.  The goal of his visits is to discuss “regional security, economic development, and cooperation on economic and global issues.”

• UK Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Oman holds elections for their parliament.

• Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Monday, October 30, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• A high-level delegation of members of the European Parliament travels to Silicon Valley to discuss with tech industry executives a host of policy issues ranging from AI to cybersecurity and privacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)

• Bank of Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Parliament’s Standing House Committee on Finance.

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October), Gross Debt to GDP (September), Nominal Budget Balance (September), Net Payrolls (September), BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Singapore to meet newly elected President Tharman Shanmugaratnam.  They will also participate in a signing ceremony of a new agreement on investment cooperation. The two nations trade more than $84 billion annually.

• Hong Kong hosts FinTech Week through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Today is the October Bank Holiday in the UK.  It is a public holiday.

• Australia Retail Sales (September)

• Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmanin and Prime Minister Albin Kurti in Pristina, Kosovo.  Later, she meets with North Macedonia’s President Dimitar Kovačevsk in Skopje, North Macedonia.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through October 31 in Palma, Spain.

• Prominent jailed Russian opposition figures – including Alexei Navalny – are expected to begin a one-day hunger strike to protest Russian government repression.

• The Nordic Council meets through November 2 to discuss improving security ties among Nordic nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at the Leadership Forum organized by Instituto de Empresa in Madrid, Spain.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the London School of Economics' Financial Markets Group event "Five years of European Banking Supervision and Beyond" in London, United Kingdom.

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sentiment (October), Selling Price Sentiment (October)

• Germany GDP ()Q3), Inflation (October),

• UK BoE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Data (September), Net Lending to Individuals (September)

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

• Spain Inflation (October), Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

• Bulgaria PPI (September), Business Confidence (October)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (October)

• Slovenia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

• Hungary Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Greece PPI (September)

• Montenegro Balance of Trade (September)

• Bosnia & Herzegovina Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (September, Private Sector Credit (September)

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Employment Cost – Benefits & Wages (Q3), Redbook (October 28), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prides (August), House Price Index (August), Chicago PMI (October), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Dallas Fed Services Index (October),

• Canada GDP (August & September)

• Brazil Unemployment (September)

• Mexico GDP (Q3)

• Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

• Uruguay Unemployment (September), Balance of Trade (September)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October)

• India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (September)

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report, Japan Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September),

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

• Singapore Bank Lending (September), Business Confidence (Q3)

• Australia Housing Credit (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• Philippines PPI (September)

• Thailand Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Private Consumption (September), Private Investment (September), Retail Sales (September)

• New Zealand Building Permits (September)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić; and meets with Prime Minister Ana Brnabić in Belgrade.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with Montenegrin President resident Jakov Milatović; and caretaker Prime Minister Dritan Abazović.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and a colloquium with students organized by ICADE University in Spain.

• Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)

• France GDP (Q3), Household Consumption (September), Inflation (October), PPI (September)

• Bank of England Executive Director for Banking, Payments, and Innovation Victoria Cleland gives the keynote speech at the Digital Innovation Summit 2023 in London.

• Italy GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), PPI (October)

• Poland Inflation (October)

• Greece Retail Sales (August)

• Spain Current Account (August)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

• Hungary Inflation (October)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Ukraine Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3)

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The OECD’s 22nd International Economic Forum on Africa begins in Paris, France. The theme of this year’s conference is “Investing in Africa for Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development.”

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

• South Africa Balance of Trade (September) 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 

Global

• China assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council.  In the afternoon, there will be a press briefing by the Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations and the President of the Security Council for the month of November, Ambassador Zhang Jun. 

• The World Trade Organization holds a General Council meeting in Geneva through November 2.

• The UK hosts the AI Safety Summit through November 2 in London.  Leaders from around the world will travel to London to discuss the risks of AI and how they can be mitigated.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Antigua Independence Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1981.

Economic Reports/Events –

• U.S. Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference,  U.S. Treasury Refunding Announcement, US ADP Employment Change (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October 27) ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTs Job Openings (September), Construction Spending (September)

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Senate’s Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

• Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision, Brazil Industrial Production (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Peru Inflation (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India puts into effect its new “import management system” to monitor shipments of laptops, tablets, and other similar devices. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

• India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M3 Money Supply (October 20)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

• Australia Ai Group Industry Index (October), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (October), Ai Group Construction and Manufacturing Indexes (October), Building Permits (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October), Commodity Prices (October)

• New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Unemployment (Q3), Labor Costs (Q3)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation (October), Tourist Arrivals (September)

• Malaysia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Taiwan S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Vietnam S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Thailand S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron will begin visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  Macron hopes to deepen trade ties with the two countries.  Additionally, Macron wants to solidify trade in uranium from the two countries as France generates more than 60 percent of its electricity from 56 nuclear power plants.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Bosnia and Herzegovina Chairwomen of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Greece S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Russia GDP (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (September), Business Confidence (October), Retail Wage Growth (August), Retail Sales (September), Corporate Profits (August), M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

• Saudi Arabia Me Money Supply (September), Private Bank Lending (September)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kenya Inflation (October)

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

• South Africa Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October) 

Thursday, November 2, 2023

Global

• The International Vienna Energy and Climate Forum will take place on 2 and 3 November at the Hofburg International Centre in Vienna.

• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the AI Safety Summit 2023 at Bletchley Park, UK.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Mexico celebrates the annual Day of the Dead parade in Mexico City.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Challenger Job Cuts (October), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Factory Orders (September)

• Mexico FX Reserves (September)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The 3rd round of Fukushima Daiichi treated water will be released.  The release of the damaged nuclear power plant water has become a major diplomatic irritant between Japan and China, which has condemned Japan’s release of the water and restricted the sale of Japanese fish products to China.

• IMF officials travel to Pakistan to hold talks on potential financial relief via the release of a $710 million second tranche of a pre-approved $3 billion loan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Australia Balance of Trade (September), Home Loans (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Pakistan Inflation (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

• Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with UN Secretary General António Guterres in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture on "Monetary Policy Tightening in the Euro Area"  at the University of Limerick in Limerick, Ireland.

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a fireside chat with Gillian Tett, Financial Times, at the 30th CIBP Congress "Cooperative Banks, Actors of Transitions" in Paris, France.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in St. Louis, Missouri.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (October)

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• France Budget Balance (September), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Poland S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Ireland Unemployment (October)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Switzerland Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Romania PPI (September)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bahrain Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

• Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Qatar Deposit Interest Rate (November),

• Royal Reserve Bank of Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Britain's King Charles III makes a state visit to Kenya.

• The 10th Africa Fintech Summit begins in Lusaka, Zambia. 

• The 20th African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Summit Forum begins in Johannesburg. Key delegations from all member countries, regional economic entities, and representatives from the private and public sectors will meet to strengthen trade and economic ties between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Total New Vehicles Sales (October)

Friday, November 3, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joe Biden will host an Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit, which will include leaders from South American nations.  Among the issues they will discuss are greater trade opportunities, tackling migration issues, and climate change.   

• The US Financial Stability Oversight Board, chaired by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, will convene to discuss commercial real estate market developments; get an update on the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance; approve the Council’s 2023 annual report; and review the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company determinations. 

• Today is Dominican Independence Day, commemorating when it gained independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Housing Conference - Breakfast with Barr: A Conversation About CRA in the 21st Century, Washington, D.C.  Later that day, Barr again speaks – this time virtually –  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the New Community Reinvestment Act Rule: What It Means For Communities Around the Country.

• US Total Vehicles Sales (October), Non-Farm Payrolls (October), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October), ISM Services PMIs (October)

• Canada Unemployment (October)

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

• Uruguay Inflation (October)

• Croatia Unemployment (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will begin visits to the Philippines and Malaysia.  The aim of the visit is to discuss increased security with Japan.  Both countries are recipients of Japan’s Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework.

• Today is Culture Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (October)

• India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October), Bank Loan Growth (October 20)

• South Korea FX Reserves (October)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

• Singapore Retail Sales (September)

• Taiwan FX Reserves (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the Regulators 2023 (FINSIA) Conference in Sydney, Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Retail Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Unemployment (September)

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• France Industrial Production (October), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

• Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Jonathan Haskel participates as a panelist discussing “Labour Market Dynamics” at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Italy Unemployment (September)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

• Greece Unemployment (September)

• Romania Unemployment (September)

• Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Experts/Balances of Trade (October), Inflation (October), PPI (October), Auto Sales (October)

• Bahrain M2 Money Supply (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (October)

• Egypt FX Reserves (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

• Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (October)

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese begins a four-day visit to China.  This is considered a highly significant visit as China-Australia soured considerably in recent years, resulting in China imposing severe duties on Australian barley, coal, and other commodities.  Albanese is the first Australian Prime Minister to visit China since 2016. While in China, Albanese will visit the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, which is one of China’s foremost business events with more than 150 countries sending businesses.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia celebrates the Day of Unity, commemorating an uprising in Moscow against Polish forces in 1612. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 27 - 29, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Middle East

• “The Israel and Gaza War: Economic Repercussions”    Brookings Institution

  Brookings’ scholars provide a brief discussion of the possible economic repercussions, bearing in mind the extreme uncertainty characterizing the situation. The repercussions of the crisis are dependent on the extent and duration of the fighting, associated geopolitical tensions, and the possible occurrence of terrorist attacks. While the overall reaction of financial markets has been relatively muted so far, the risks of an intensification and broadening of the conflict are material, and their potential fallout could be severe, especially for countries in the region.

• “Will Lebanon Be Safe or Sorry?”   Carnegie Middle East Center

  Many Lebanese are playing a morbid game these days—assessing the probability that their country will be destroyed if Hezbollah enters the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. On several occasions, the Israelis have warned that in any future war with Hezbollah, they would send Lebanon “back to the stone age.”  The assumption is that once Israel begins a ground invasion of Gaza, the prospect of a Lebanon conflict will greatly increase. 

• “Egypt in the Cauldron of Gaza”   Foreign Affairs

  As Israel readies for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, much attention has shifted to how Egypt will respond in the coming days and weeks. The Egyptian government, after all, has been party to the 16-year-long Israeli blockade of Gaza, enforcing tight controls on what comes in and out of the enclave through the border crossing at Rafah. The Egyptian people, however, see their own circumstances very differently: like the people of Gaza, they are trapped by corruption and neglect in an apparently endless spiral of poverty and subjugation, as bread, freedom, and justice seem increasingly out of reach. That kind of despair breeds only bitterness and anger. The Sisi government may be able to deflect and contain protests against its own policies, but only at the cost of more repression, since local echoes of Palestinian discontent and frustration are not hard to discern in the demonstrations of solidarity that have spread across the country.

• “Al-Monitor/Premise Poll: 82% of Americans wary of US Intervention in Israel-Hamas War” Al Monitor

  As the Israel-Hamas war rages on and threatens to spill into a wider regional conflict, Americans are either unsure of or reject a US military intervention in the region, according to a new Al-Monitor/Premise poll.

Americas 

• “Paper Tiger or Pacing Threat? China’s Security and Defense Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  China has long couched its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean in primarily economic terms. However, China is becoming increasingly strident in its efforts to bolster defense and security initiatives in the Western Hemisphere. Chinese defense and security engagements manifest along a spectrum, including dual-use civilian and military infrastructure projects, public safety assistance, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, arms sales, and joint military-to-military exchanges and trainings. An expanded military and security presence in the hemisphere poses significant concerns for the United States in the event of a potential conflict or crisis, imperils regional stability by empowering criminal regimes in the hemisphere, and risks eroding democratic norms within regional militaries and police forces.  

• “’Compensate the Losers?’ Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the U.S.”  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.

China 

• “2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”    U.S. Department of Defense

  The U.S. Department of Defense recently released its annual report on "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China." The congressionally mandated report serves as an authoritative assessment on military and security developments involving the PRC.   The report finds that in 2022, the PRC increasingly turned to the PLA as an instrument of statecraft. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, while accelerating its development of capabilities, including its nuclear, space, and cyberspace capabilities; deepening military ties with Russia; and strengthening its ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. At the same time, the PRC largely denied, cancelled, and ignored recurring bilateral defense engagements, as well as DoD requests for military-to-military communication at multiple levels.

Book Recommendation

Germany 1923 by Volker Ullrich

(Liveright Publishing, 432 pages, 2023)

1923 was, for Germany, the year of polycrisis that would shape the next two decades and beyond for Europe and the world.  Adolf Hitler attempted his Beer Hall Putsch in Munich.  The German government failed to make reparation payments to France, which resulted in Paris sending in troops to occupy the Ruhr region – the economic backbone of an otherwise broke and crumpled German economy. 

It turned inflation in Germany into hyperinflation.  It also was a bitter and humiliating event for the German people, who were still stunned at the loss of the War and the heavy financial punishments placed upon them. 

That, in turn, ignited a series of political crises in Germany, threatening the disintegration of the nation.  And that brought the next horrific evolution of events: The empowerment Hitler and his followers as increasingly desperate Germans looked for a powerful leader to ascend who could restore Germany and their lives.

2024 did see a resolution to the reparation issue and the pulling out of French troops from the Ruhr.  But the damage had been done.   The long fuse leading to Hitler’s rise to complete power a decade hence was lit.

Ullrich’s book is a healthy and timely reminder of how fragile democracy is, requiring constant, careful tending and protection.  What happened in 1923 Germany led to the German people losing faith in their government and the democratic institutions on which it was based – thus opening the door to Hitler’s rise a short ten years later. 

The same can be said about national and global economies and just how dangerous inflation can become – and how badly it can get out of control due to political tensions.  All of which remain salient lessons today. 

Germany 1923 is a fascinating and fact-rich read.  We highly recommend it.

“The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C.”

apropos - A Ness & Associates Podcast co-hosted by the CFA Society of New York

October 23, 2023

I was delighted to be a guest on this outstanding podcast last week. So much going on in the world. Here is the show description (below) - I hope you find it useful! It is available on both Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

In this engaging episode of Apropos, presented by Ness & Associates and CFA Society New York, esteemed guest Mr. Frank Kelly delves into a compelling discussion on "The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C." and their consequential impacts on global financial markets.

The spotlight was on the pressing geopolitical issues affecting the world, with a particular focus on the ongoing War in Israel. Unprecedented in its nature, this conflict echoes the unsettling trends witnessed in various global hotspots, notably drawing parallels to the intensity of the Ukraine-Russia War, the most significant military confrontation in Europe since World War II.

Unfolding amidst these international tensions is the notable absence of progress in the House of Representatives, with the lack of a House Speaker amplifying the political gridlock in the most influential democracy in the world. As of the recording date on October 16, 2023, the inability to drive legislative actions speaks volumes about the current challenges faced by our nation.

As we approach the close of 2023 and look ahead to the upcoming election year in 2024, the front-running candidates reflect the deepening polarization within the political landscape, capturing the essence of the present societal turmoil characterized by a profound sense of disorientation and a dire need for decisive leadership.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 23 - 27, 2023

It is going to be a busy week for U.S. financial services regulators.  The Federal Reserve Board meets twice this week to consider two rulemakings: one to consider changes to the Community Reinvestment Act and the second to consider changes to the debt interchange fee.  The biggest news to emerge from the Federal Reserve (and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) came late last week when they announced they are extending the comment period on the large bank capital proposal to January 2024.  The proposal has run into a growing storm of opposition from banks and several Fed Governors in an unusual twist.

Also, this week, several Congressional hearings in the House and Senate will focus on terrorism financing and how to better choke off funding to Hamas and other terror organizations.

These hearings occur as U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism Finance and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson travels to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Doha, Qatar, for meetings to further cut off financial assistance to Hamas.  While in Saudi Arabia, Nelson will co-chair a meeting of the Executive Committee of the Terrorist Financing Targeting Center (TFTC), a multilateral body created to strengthen cooperation among seven countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and the United States - to disrupt terrorist financing networks.

We are also looking to a Wednesday morning event hosted by Capitol Account  (which we think is hands-down the best publication covering financial services policy) and the Bank Policy Institute discussing the “Basel endgame” and the growing battle over capital requirements.  Speakers include Acting Speaker of the House and House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry (which we are sure will mean we will hear as much about the state of chaos in the House of Representatives as capital requirement policy debates) and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher Partner (and former Labor Secretary) Eugene Scalia.  This should be an exciting event.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• October 24, 10:00 a.m. – the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets holds a hearing entitled, "Examining the SEC's Agenda: Unintended Consequences for U.S. Capital Markets and Investors."

• October 24, 10:00 a.m.– the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy holds a hearing entitled, "The Tangled Web of Global Governance: How the Biden Administration is Ceding Authority Over American Financial Regulation"

• October 24, 10:00 a.m. – the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance holds a hearing entitled, "The Factors Influencing the High Cost of Insurance for Consumers."

• October 25, 8:30 a.m. – Capitol Account  (which we think is the best publication out there covering financial services policy) and the Bank Policy Institute hold an event on the regulator’s Basel endgame proposal. Speakers include Acting Speaker of the House and House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher Partner Eugene Scalia.

• October 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Modernizing Financial Services Through Innovation and Competition."

• October 25, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "How America and Its Allies Can Stop Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran from Evading Sanctions and Financing Terror."

• October 26, 9:30 a.m. – The House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing entitled “Moving the Money: Understanding the Iranian Regime’s Access to Money Around the World and How They Use it to Support Terrorism.”

U.S. Senate

• October 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Judiciary Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Examining Competition and Consumer Rights in Housing Markets."

• October 26, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on “Combating the Networks of Illicit Finance and Terrorism.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 23, 9:30 a.m. – The Federal Reserve will meet to hold a vote on changes to Community Reinvestment Act regulations.

• October 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Reserve will hold a press conference on Proposed revisions to the Board's debit interchange fee cap.

• October 25, 4:35 p.m. – Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell gives Introductory Remarks at the 2023 Moynihan Lecture in Social Science and Public Policy, Washington, D.C.

• October 26, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gives introductory remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference in Washington, D.C.

• October 27, 9:00 a.m. – Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives introductory remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

• October 23 – 26:  U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism Finance and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Doha, Qatar, for meetings seeking to further cut off financial assistance to Hamas.  While in n Saudi Arabia, Under Secretary Nelson will co-chair a meeting of the Executive Committee of the Terrorist Financing Targeting Center (TFTC), a multilateral body created to strengthen cooperation among seven countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and the United States - to disrupt terrorist financing networks.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 25: SEC Chair Gary Gensler and SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewel will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum in Washington, D.C.

• October 26, 9:15 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness.  The topic of the event is Climate Disclosure Developments: The SEC, California, and EU Extraterritoriality."

• October 26, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 23, 6:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will join Kevin Werbach, Chairperson and Professor of Legal Studies & Business Ethics at Wharton Business School, for a discussion on regulating digital assets and decentralized finance celebrating the 100-year anniversary of the Academy of Legal Studies in Business.

• October 24, 9:45 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a government panel, "AI Opportunities and Implications for Economic Institutions," at the AWS Gov2Gov Summit on Responsible AI Innovation for the Public Sector being held at the Planet Word Museum in Washington, D.C.

• October 25, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) event, Analyzing the Role of Blockchain Technology in Strengthening Democratic Institutions in Washington, D.C.

• October 26, 9:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. (Madrid, Spain) – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in the Financial Stability Engagement Group discussion at the IOSCO board meeting in Madrid, Spain.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 24, 3:00 p.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors holds a meeting to vote on Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) changes.  They will also vote on an interagency policy statement on Principles for Climate-Related Financial Risk Management for Large Financial Institutions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• October 23, 2:30 p.m. PT – OCC Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will participate in a discussion on banking, cryptocurrency, and financial inclusion with Tracy Alloway, host of the Odd Lots podcast, at Money 20/20 in Las Vegas.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No events are scheduled for next week.

National Credit Union Administration

• No events are scheduled for next week.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 24, 1:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will give opening remarks at the American Veterinary Medical Association Virtual Veterinary Business and Economic Forum.

Farm Credit Administration

• No events are scheduled for next week.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 25, 9:00 – 10:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold a discussion on “What works and what doesn't in the EU bank resolution framework” in Washington, D.C.  EU Single Resolution Board Chair Dominique Laboureix will speak.

• October 25, 1:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Institute hosts Federal Housing Finance Authority Director Sandra Thompson.  She will speak on the status and future of the housing finance system.

Trade Associations

• October 25: the Securities Enforcement Forum is held in Washington, D.C.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler and SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewel will speak.

• October 26, 9:15 a.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness holds a discussion on "Climate Disclosure Developments: The SEC, California, and EU Extraterritoriality."   SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak.

• October 26, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Lending and Credit Risk in the Digital Age: Navigating Policy Challenges."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

October 22 - 29, 2023

 The situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the focus of markets as Israel is expected to launch land forces into Gaza soon to eliminate the Hamas threat.  The race to find and free the 200-plus hostages has intensified, but with little luck.  As all this occurs, Iran and their proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen continue ramp up attacks on Israel, all as the US moves more naval forces into the region.

Elsewhere around the world this coming week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits Washington to meet with President Biden to discuss the AUKUS security agreement (Australia/UK/US) and advancing trade ties between the two nations.  As this happens,  California Governor Gavin Newsom travels to China to discuss bilateral California-China trade ties.  The trip is a gamble for Newsom, who has little foreign policy experience and is putting himself in the middle of still-tense US-China relations. 

Back in Washington, House Republicans return to work today to figure out who they can agree on to be the next Speaker of the House.  There are now nine announced candidates for the role, suggesting the situation is far from settled and will likely paralyze the House for some time.

On the global economic radar screen, the week's big event will occur in Athens, Greece, where the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to consider another interest rate increase.  Canada's Reserve Bank also meets this week to consider interest rates.

In the US, we will be watching for new GDP numbers and personal income and spending data (both of which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a key data point). 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 22, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina held general elections for the President, Senate, and Chamber of Deputies. There were five candidates running in the first round with the frontrunner being Javier Milei, a libertarian congressman from the Liberty Advance coalition.  However, in a surprise,the Peronist Party coalition far-exceeded expectations to lead the election and force a run-off election between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and Milei.  Massa won 36.6 percent of the vote to Milei’s 30 percent.  

• California Governor Gavin Newsom travels to China to hold talks with Chinese officials on trade, tourism, and establishing new cultural exchanges.  Newsom will visit Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.

• Venezuela’s opposition held primary elections and as of now, the vote count is unfinished.  However, former lawmaker Maria Corina Machado is expected to be declared the victor.  Last week, the Biden Administration announced they had brokered a deal with the Venezuelan regime to remove some sanctions on oil exports in return for free elections.  However, since then, the Maduro Regime has let it be known they will not allow such elections and, to further complicate the matter, are likely to move up the elections so the opposition cannot run a campaign.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Japan, voters in Nagasaki and Tokushima-Kochi held votes for lower and upper house candidates.  The outcome of the elections are expected to influence if and when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds snap elections and in both elections, his Liberal Democratic Party lost.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the „Deutschlandtag“ of the Junge Union Deutschlands, Brunswick, Germany.

• Switzerland held elections for the Council of States and National Council.  Voters voted for conservative candidates, largely out of concerns over rising immigration.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 23, 2023

Global

• The World Trade Organization’s Minsters meeting is held in Geneva.  They will meet to discuss the agenda for the 2024 WTO Conference.

• In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), followed by consultations in the afternoon. also in the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo(UNMIK).

• The UN’s 35th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol takes place in Nairobi, Kenya from 23-27 October.  The parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer will meet to discuss issues on ongoing ozone layer monitoring and protection, as well as emerging issues such as geoengineering, very short-lived substances, and increasing levels of emissions that are not ozone depleting but potent greenhouse gases among others. Crucially, parties will also start discussions on the replenishment of the Multilateral Fund for the next triennium 2024-2026. A symposium on cold chain and a workshop on energy efficiency will also take place on 21 and 22 October.

• The UN-sponsored Latin America and Caribbean Climate Week takes place in Panama City from 23 to 27 October. Like the other Regional Climate Weeks, the event provides a platform for policymakers, practitioners, businesses and civil society to discuss climate solutions, barriers to overcome and opportunities realized in different regions ahead of COP28. Hosted by the Government of Panama, other global partners include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US House Republican Caucus will meet to consider who should be the next Speaker of the House.  There are now nine (9) announced candidates for the post, the largest number to date.  They include Republican Representatives Jack Bergman (MI) Byron Donalds (FL) Tom Emmer (MN) Kevin Hern (OK) Mike Johnson (LA) Dan Meuser (PA) Gary Palmer (AL) Austin Scott (GA) Pete Sessions (TX).  Whomever is chosen will be voted on by the full House on Tuesday.

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with President Joe Biden in Washington.  They are expected to discuss the AUKUS security program, climate change, and access to critical minerals.

• Brent Neiman, U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Finance will speak at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies on current global financial issues in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

• Mexico Economic Activity (August)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will give a major policy speech before an extraordinary session of the Japanese Diet (parliament).  It is expected he will outline a significant economic stimulus plan which will include tax cuts.

• Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan set to face indictment in leaked documents case.

• Vietnam’s National Assembly opens its fall session with nine major pieces of legislation before them, including highly-controversial bills dealing with land, housing, and property firms.

• China's major e-commerce platforms begin the Singles Day shopping festival, which spans about three weeks through Nov. 11. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore CPI (September), Inflation (September)

• Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg to discuss the situation in Ukraine, and tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as the situation in Israel and Gaza. It is expected they will also discuss EU ministers to hold final discussions in Luxembourg on a security mission to the Gulf of Guinea, potentially resulting in the deployment of police and soldiers to Ghana, Togo, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire.

• The 20th meeting of the EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council takes place in Luxembourg.  It is also expected they will discuss the state of play and next steps of the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity) and cooperation. They will also discuss regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries  Council meets Luxembourg through October 24.  The will discuss the market situation in light of the Ukraine War.  The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture will address the Council.  They will go on to discuss the Waste Framework Directive and fishing opportunities in 2024 in the Baltic Sea.

• There will be an informal meeting of the EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 24 in León, Spain. 

• Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will visit Japan and hold meetings with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida through October 26.  It is expected they will discuss mutual defense and security issues and the prospects for increased trade ties.

• Hungarian Prime Minister Vicktor Orbán will give a major speech on Republic Day, the anniversary of the country’s failed 1956 uprising against Soviet rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

• Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Lebanon Inflation (September)

• Qatar GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s former minister of petroleum, Diezani Alison-Madueke, will challenge the seizure of assets by the country’s anti-graft body in court. The agency said it recovered assets worth $153 million from Madueke.

• Nigeria’s Supreme Court will hear an opposition challenge to the disputed February presidential election won by Bola Tinubu. A tribunal last month rejected challenges by Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who polled second and third respectively.

• The Climate Chance Summit Africa 2023 will bring together 600 African actors from the broader climate change community at the Institut Français in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The House of Representatives is expected to vote on a new Speaker of the House (although there will be a successful outcome).

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Redbook (October 21), S&P PMIs (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October), Richmond Fed Services Index (October)

• Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation Rate (October)

• Chile PPI (September)

• Argentina Economic Activity (August)

• Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Jibun PMIs (October)

• South Korea PPI (September)

• Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Reserve Bank of Australia Director Michele Bullock gives her first speech as Governor in Sydney at the Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference.

• Indonesia FDI (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and prepare for the European Council meeting on October 26 and 27.

• More than 450 Cambridge University staff will go on strike over pay.

• The first Euro-Namibia Business Forum to take place in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), HCOB PMIs (October)

• UK Unemployment (August), S&P Global/CIPS PMIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q2), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

• France HCOB PMIs (October)

• Hungary Gross Wage (August)

• Poland Unemployment (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Current Account (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Zambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

 Global

• The European Union will host the Global Gateway meetings, which are comprised of approximately 20 countries seeking to boost global infrastructure development.  The Gateway program began in 2021 with the aim of focusing on emerging countries and encouraging private-public partnerships.  More than half of the funding (approximately $320 million) is being spent in Africa, with the rest distributed in Asia and Latin America.  Global Gateway is seen as the EU’s (small) effort to counter China’s Belt & Road Initiative. EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give the opening remarks

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and Peace and Security.

• The UN hosts a hybrid briefing by Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on “the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967.”  This will be followed by another briefing by the Independent International Commission on Inquiry “on the Occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee will meet to consider the nomination of Jack Lew to be the new US Ambassador to Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives Introductory Remarks at the 2023 Moynihan Lecture in Social Science and Public Policy, Washington, D.C.

• US MBA Mortgage Index (October 20), New Homes Sales (September), Building Permits (September)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report

• Argentina Retail Sales (August)

• Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong Chef Executive John Lee will give a major policy address to unveil his plan to address the faltering property market, business confidence, and geopolitical tensions.  Last year, Lee a top-talent visa scheme to plug a brain drain sparked by a national security crackdown and harsh pandemic restrictions. This time around, economists are hoping property cooling measures will be scrapped to slow falling home prices, while political observers are expecting a lighter emphasis on national security.

• Shanghai Cooperation Organization heads of government meeting to take place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.  China’s Premier Li Quang is scheduled to attend and then make an official visit to the Kyrgyzstan Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

• Australia Inflation (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), CPI (September)

• Philippines Budget Balance (September)

• Malaysia Coincident Index (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels.  The Forum brings together EU leaders and social partners where they will discuss “How to make Europe the place to be for industrial investments creating growth and quality jobs?”   The participating social groups include BusinessEurope, The European Trade Union Confederation, Eurocadres, SGI Europe, and SMEunited.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visits Sweden, where he will give a speech on the new security and strategy reality.  He will also meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the Minister of Defense Pål Jonson, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström, along with the Speaker of the Swedish Parliament, Andreas Norlén.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Russian religious leaders, including Patriarch Kirill.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner hosted by the
  Bank of Greece in Athens, Greece.  This comes the evening before the ECB meets to decide on a likely rate increase.

• Eurozone Loans to Companies & Households (September0, M3 Money Supply (September)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

• France Unemployment (September)

• Greece Total Credit (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Spain PPI (September)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (September), PPI (September)

• Bosnia and Herzegovina Inflation (September), PPI (September), Industrial Production (September)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

• Kuwait Private Bank Lending (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Air Force Forum, hosted by the Senegalese Air Force, begins in Dakar, Senegal, and runs through October 26.

• The African Development Bank will host a Symposium focused on data innovation and associated technologies.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (October)

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

• US Durable Goods Orders (September), GDP (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October 2), Retail Sales Inventories (September), Retail Consumer Spending (Q3), Pending Home Sales (September), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (October 2), Kansas Fed Manufacturing/Composite Indexes (October)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Manufacturing Sales (September), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

• Mexico Unemployment (September)

• Brazil Current Account (September), Foreign Direct Investment (August), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October), PPI (September)

• Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s largest motor show, the Tokyo Motor Show, begins and will have a record 475 enterprises present. But for the first time, it will include a large number of tech start-ups involved in the technology of autos.

• Thailand’s first auto show dedicated to electric vehicles – the Bangkok EV Expo 2023 – begins in Bangkok.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Business Confidence (October), GDP (Q3)

•  Australia Export Prices/Import Prices (Q3)

• Singapore Industrial Production (September)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Malaysia PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Council meets in Brussels through October 27.  The EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027, the state of the EU economy, and the migration crisis.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to visit Belarus to attend a Eurasian security conference. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Jon Cunliffe gives a speech at The Economics of Payments XII Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.  

• UK Car Production (September), CBI Distributive Trades (October)

• Spain Unemployment (Q3)

• Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (October 20)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (September)

• Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 27, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting, International Court of Justice (ICJ) briefing.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives introductory remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

• US PCE Price Index (September), Personal Income (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October), Consumer Expectations (October), Michigan Current Conditions (October), Michigan Inflation Expectations (October), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 27)

• Canada Wholesale Sales (September), Budget Balance (August)

• Brazil Ban Lending (September)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Tokyo CPI (October)

• India FX Reserves (October 20)

• Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October), PPI (Q3)

• Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment (Q3), Import/Export Prices (September), PPI (September)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Euro Summit is held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Hungary Unemployment (September)

• Spain GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (September)

• Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals (September)

• Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

• Ireland Inflation (October), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Sales (August)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bahrain Inflation (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report 

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Global

• The G7 Trade Ministers meet in Osaka-Sakai, Japan through October 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Nigeria and Ghana from through Tuesday.  The goal of his visits is to discuss “regional security, economic development, and cooperation on economic and global issues.”

• UK Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Oman holds elections for their parliament.

• Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

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Recommended Weekend Reads

October 20 - 22, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Latin America 

• “The Only Threat of Violence in Venezuela’s Opposition Primaries Comes from the Regime”   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Biden Administration has brokered a deal with the Venezuelan regime easing sanctions on oil production in return for allowing free elections.  But the risk of this deal falling apart is high. On August 18, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro appeared on television to denounce the October 22 primaries planned by Venezuela’s opposition parties, which are uniting behind a single candidate ahead of the country’s 2024 presidential elections. Through “lies, hate, and violence,” Maduro claimed the opposition would use the primaries to “sow fascism” in Venezuela (author’s translation). The accusations, parroted by other high-ranking regime authorities, represent a disturbing narrative in the midst of an already fraught electoral season, which has seen attacks and intimidation against political candidates and the arbitrary disqualification of leading figures, most notably opposition frontrunner María Corina Machado. The Maduro regime’s narrative of violence portends a possible intervention in the opposition’s independently organized primary process on public security grounds.

• “A (Relatively) Bullish Case for Latin America”    Americas Quarterly

  Far from global crises but near vital markets, the region has what the world needs right now. The bottom line is basically this: The external context for Latin America/Caribbean (LAC) right now is so favorable on a variety of fronts that it is overcoming other headwinds. If the policy mix was better, the region might be growing by 4% or 5% a year. But 2% or perhaps a little better still feels like progress. That growth, plus the investments being made, might be enough to create a little more well-being among the region’s citizens—which could, in turn, help the politics get better. 

The United States

• “America’s Strategic Posture: the Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States”

  On October 12, the Strategic Posture Commission released its long-awaited report on U.S. nuclear policy and strategic stability. The 12-member Commission was hand-picked by Congress in 2022 to conduct a threat assessment, consider alterations to U.S. force posture, and provide recommendations. In contrast to the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, the Congressionally-mandated Strategic Posture Commission report is a full-throated embrace of a U.S. nuclear build-up. It includes recommendations for the United States to prepare to increase its number of deployed warheads, as well as increase its production of bombers, air-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missile submarines, non-strategic nuclear forces, and warhead production capacity. It also calls for the United States to deploy multiple warheads on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and consider adding road-mobile ICBMs to its arsenal. The only thing that appears to have prevented the Commission from recommending an immediate increase in the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile is that the weapons production complex currently does not have the capacity to do so.

Africa 

• “How a Fertilizer Shortage Is Spreading Desperate Hunger”  The New York Times

  The war in Ukraine reduced the region’s grain exports and sent the price of staples like wheat soaring from Egypt to Indonesia. The world’s food supply is also menaced by the ravages of climate change — heat waves, drought, floods. Now, scarce and expensive fertilizer  - much of normally imported from Ukraine – is combining with these other forces to threaten livelihoods.

Chart of the Week

Spanish Olive Oil: It’s Going to Cost You More Because of Yet Another Poor Harvest Yield 

Many of us are great fans of Spanish olive oil.  Unfortunately, Spain – the top producer of olive oil – is having yet another poor harvest year.  Higher than normal temperatures and a prolonged drought have led to the trees either dropping their fruit too soon or producing significantly smaller olives.  According to Bloomberg, it is the 3rd lowest than the four-year average.  Making the situation worse is a growing crime wave where thieves are targeting stored oil reserves, the actual freshly picked olives, and even trees.  So, if you find the prices have spiked at the grocery store or at your favorite restaurant, now you know why.

Institutional Investing in Infrastructure Roundtable (i3)

I was honored to participate last Thursday at the Institutional Investing in Infrastructure (i3) Roundtable - hosted by DWS in New York — on the growing intersection of geopolitics and infrastructure investments.

The Roundtable began with me giving an update on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRI) and how the CHIPS Act has the potential to create more investment opportunities. We went on to talk about how the Ukraine War and the prospects of war in Gaza are likely to impact energy investments and how we may face a resurgence in fossil fuel investment.

We went on to debate whether deglobalization is picking up speed and truly leading to more on/nearshoring and it leading to logistics/supply chain investments. We then moved to discussing Europe and how it likely has a more diverse investable universe.