The Global Week Ahead

October 15 - 22, 2023

In life, it is rare to begin a week knowing that by its end, unfolding geopolitical events will likely result in all of us living in a very different world.  This appears to be one of those such weeks as Israel prepares to enter Gaza to destroy Hamas after their vile attack nine days ago, killing more than 1,400 Israelis and wounding more than 3,000.  Iran has threatened Israel (the U.S.) if and when Israel moves on Gaza.  Iranian-controlled Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have already ramped up artillery and missile strikes into northern Israel, while other Iranian-backed militias are reportedly mobilizing in Syria near the Israeli border.  All this is happening as more than one million Gazans are urged to evacuate by Israel.

We are now watching to see if President Joe Biden visits Israel later this week, as Israeli officials confirm such a visit is possible. 

Elsewhere in the world this week, China hosts the 3rd Annual Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing, where China’s President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines.  This will be the first time Putin has traveled outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children to Ukraine and other possible war crimes.  We will be watching closely for what deals the two leaders strike.

While this is happening, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is reportedly going to visit Washington this week for meetings with President Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where they will discuss the situation in Israel and a possible Biden meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in November in San Francisco.  Foreign Minister Wang’s visit will likely come as the U.S. Department of Commerce issues long-awaited new restrictions on certain semiconductors and other high-tech equipment to China.

Another big event is being held in Washington this week: The EU-US Summit.  Hosted by President Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel will seek to hammer out significant agreements on steel, critical minerals, and other trade issues.  They will also talk about Israel and Ukraine.

Moving to the global economic week ahead, markets will closely watch China’s 3rd quarter GDP figures.  Also this week, Japan releases CPI numbers while closer to home, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday, and Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a speech in New York on Thursday.  Powell will be joined throughout the week with multiple Fed Governors and Presidents giving speeches. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Global

• The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

• The International Olympic Committee meets in Mumbai to determine if a number of sports are included in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, including cricket.

• The hybrid World Health Summit will take place in Berlin, Germany, through October 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ecuador holds presidential run-off elections.  The race is between lawyer and politician Luisa González and businessman and son of former President Alvaro Noboa Daniel Noboa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Russia's Duma Chair Vyacheslav Volodin will visit Vietnam to meet with National Assembly chair Vuong Dinh Hue through Oct. 16.

• The 134th Canton (China) Import and Export Fair will open in Guangzhou, China.  It is widely seen as a metric for the state of Chinese foreign trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand holds general elections.  All 120 members of the Parliament are up for election.  Polls show the center-right National Party holding a strong lead, but observers believe a coalition government of some sort will be required for them to lead.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Poland holds general elections.  The ruling party, Law and Justice Party, and its ruling coalition, United Right, are likely to struggle to win an outright majority, according to the latest polls.

• EU President von der Leyen travels to Albania and will meet with President Bajram Begaj and, separately, with Prime Minister Edi Rama.

• The Scottish National Party conference begins in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will finish a regional tour of Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt as the United States tries to contain the Israel-Hamas war.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

• Israel Inflation (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.  

Monday, October 16, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning, followed by consultations on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).     

• The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the Global Future Councils meets in Dubai.

• The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) holds the World Investment Forum 2023 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.  The aim of the Forum is to encourage climate action, clean energy, healthcare, and food security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to present as early as today new restrictions on semiconductor and other hi-tech equipment sales to China.

• Jamaica celebrates Heroes’ Day, a national holiday.  The day commemorates scholars, businessmen, and other leaders who contributed to the freedom of Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention & Expo in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  Later in the day, Harker will speak virtually on the economic outlook before the National Association of Corporate Directors Webinar.

• US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

• Canada Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Peru GDP (August), Unemployment (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Union representing workers at Australia’s Gorgon and Wheatstone liquified natural gas facilities working for Chevron may go on strike again.  The union was going to go on strike briefly in September but returned to work thinking a deal was at hand.  But negotiations have been rocky.  The impact of such a strike would be significant for Western Europe, where LNG prices reached seven-month highs.

• Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi in Beijing. He will discuss further trade and investment opportunities with Xi and will stay on to attend the 3rd Belt and Road Forum while there. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

• Japan Industrial Production (August), Capacity Utilization (August)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCIs (September)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Philippines Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with Eurogroup President Pascal Donohoe, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, and European Commissioner for the Economy Paolo Gentilino for a working lunch.  She will then address and participate in the Eurogroup Finance Ministers meetings and then participate in a press conference after the meeting.  They are expected to discuss transatlantic economic dialogue, the future of European capital and financial markets, and exchange views with market participants on drivers for unlocking capital funding in the EU preparation of the Euro Summit.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen stays in Albania to attend the Berlin Process Summit.   The Berlin Process was established in 2014 as a platform for high-level cooperation between officials of the Western Balkan Six (WB^) and their peers in Berlin and EU institutions, international financial intuitions, and the region’s civil society.  She will take part in the inauguration of the liaison office of the College of Europe in Tirana.

• The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss urban wastewater treatment, Co2 emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, and preparing for the COP28 climate change conference that is being held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023.

• The Constitutional Court of Georgia will announce a decision on the impeachment of President Salome Zurabishvili. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives opening remarks at the 2023 SRB-ECB CMDI Seminar in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board member Anneli Tuomine gives a speech at the 2023 SRB-ECB CMDI Seminar in Brussels, Belgium 

• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks on the UK economic outlook at the OMFIF via live broadcast.

• Eurozone Balance of Trade (August)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

• Italy Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Hungary Construction Output (August)

• Bulgaria Inflation (September)

• Croatia Inflation (September)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

• Serbia Building Permits (August)

• Poland Inflation (September)

• Montenegro Inflation (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Budget Balance (September)

• Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, and runs through October 20.  Government ministers and energy executives will gather to discuss new oil and gas field discoveries.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation (September) 

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 751 Committee (concerning the Somali terrorist organization Al-Shabaab), followed by consultations on the 1559 report (regarding foreign military forces in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Congress returns to session after being out last week for the Columbus Day holiday.  The House of Representatives will continue seeking a new Speaker of the House, with a new vote being scheduled for today.  Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) was chosen by the Republican Caucus last week in a close vote.  But it does not appear he has enough support to win in a general vote of the House.

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts the first-ever Canada-CARICOM Summit in Ottawa.  Leaders from the 15 CARICOM (Caribbean Community) member states and five associate members will discuss how, together with Canada, can build inclusive and sustainable economies, increase trade and investment, and promote multilateral collaboration. The leaders will also work to develop better policies to fight climate change and address its impacts in the Caribbean, including by exploring ways to improve access to financing for Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean.

• Chile’s President Gabriel Boric and Argentine President Alberto Fernández attend the Belt and Road Forum in China.

• FBI Director Christopher Wray is expected to hold a meeting of the “Five Eyes” members (intelligence chiefs of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the U.S.) in Washington, D.C.

• Former President Trump is expected to return to a New York State Courthouse today and all this week as his state civil fraud trial continues.  The President’s former legal counsel, Michael Cohen, and several of his former bankers are expected to testify against him. At some point, Trump is reportedly expected to take the stand and testify in his own defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled ”Responsible Innovation in Money and Payments” at the Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems Roundtable on Central Bank Digital Currency, Washington, D.C.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to moderate a discussion with Intel INTC.O Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger at the Economic Club of New York.

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks to the Real Estate Roundtable.

• US Retail Sales (September), Redbook (October 14), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September), Manufacturing Production (September),  Business Inventories (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), API Crued Oil Stock Change (October 13)

• Canada Housing Starts (September), Inflation (September), CPI (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China hosts the 3rd Annual Belt and Road Initiative Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing.  China’s President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines.  This will be the first time Putin has traveled outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children to Ukraine and other possible war crimes.  There are reports the CEOs of Russian energy companies Gazprom (Alexei Miller) and Rosneft (Igor Sechin) will join Putin, suggesting Putin will seek to clinch a deal with Xi for the sale of more natural gas to China as well as building the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline.  That pipeline will travel via Mongolia and have an estimated annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters (BCM).  Also, now that Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu appears to have been removed from power, it will be important to see who serves as the lead Chinese interlocutor with Russian and other military officials participating in the event.

• A Pakistani Special Court will formally charge former Prime Minister Imran Khan for leaking state secrets.  The country is bracing for protests around the country by Khan backers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Foreign Direct Investment (September)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (August)

• South Korea Export Prices (September), Import Prices (September)

• Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

• New Zealand Inflation (Q3), CPI (Q3), Global Dairy Trade Price Index

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September), Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Jordan’s King Abdullah II will be in Berlin, Germany, for crisis meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The talks with Scholz are expected to focus on the situation in Gaza and free hostages held by Hamas.

• The Russian Duma (Parliament) will vote on whether to withdraw from the nuclear test ban treaty.

• The European Council will hold an extraordinary meeting via video to discuss the situation in Israel and potential consequences for the EU, including migration risk, Russia using the crisis to its advantage, and the role the EU should play in the situation.

• France’s President Emmanuel Macron travels to Albania for bilateral meetings.

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss the EU economic governance framework, the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, and how to better help Ukraine.

• The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss reform of electricity prices and the security of supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a dinner speech at the 5th ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives a speech followed by Q&A at the European Supervisors' Education Initiative conference in Berlin, Germany.

• Bank of England Swati Dhingra participates in a panel at the Royal Economic Summit 2023 in London.

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

• UK Unemployment (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Inflation (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Financial Times Africa Summit begins in London.  A number of African leaders will speak, as well as World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Global

• UN Security Council sanctions on Iranian trade in ballistic missile and drone-related technology expire.  France, Germany, and the UK (the E3) will transfer the sanctions into domestic law, citing Iran’s violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

• The UN Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) holds an open meeting of the Counter-Terrorism Committee “Countering terrorist narratives and preventing the use of the Internet for terrorist purposes”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing for Jacob Lew to be the new U.S. Ambassador to Israel.  There is currently no sitting U.S. Ambassador to Israel, and we expect the U.S. Senate to seek to speed his confirmation through quickly.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar (European Economics and Financial Centre), London, England.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia.

• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives opening remarks at The Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Employment Mandate at the Louis E. Martin Awards Ceremony at the 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit, Washington, D.C.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion at Queens College, New York.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Workforce Challenges" before the "People, Possibilities, Practice: Designing a Better Future for Workers" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

• US Beige Book, MBA Mortgage Market Indexes (October 13), Building Permits (September), Housing Starts (September), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Changes (October 13)

• Brazil Retail Sales (August)

• Argentina Leading Indicator (September)

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Space Agency Council meets through October 19 in Paris.  The session will focus on improved sharing of Earth observation data for environmental purposes, including enhanced cooperation with Poland and preparations for the Space Summit to be held in November 2023.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate in preparation for the European Council meeting, which is being held October 26-27.

• Former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz goes on trial for giving false testimony.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde makes a visit to Mike Josef, Lord Mayor of Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel at the launch of the public consultation of the MAS Transition Planning Guidelines (TPG) in Singapore.

• Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Elisabeth Stheeman gives a speech at the London School of Economics on “Cyber Risks and Operational Resilience” in London.

• Eurozone Inflation (September), Construction Output (August), CPI (September)

• UK Inflation (September), PPI (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Slovakia Inflation (September)

• Italy Balance of Trade (August)

• Bulgaria Current Account (August)

• Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Auto Production (September)

• Israel Unemployment (September), Inflation Expectations (October), M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola FX Reserves (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

• South Africa Inflation (September), Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the Haiti sanctions. Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NASA is planning to launch an expedition to study the asteroid Psyche to get more clues on Earth’s origins as well as possible opportunities to mine the asteroid for critical minerals.

• Candidates for Venezuela's opposition presidential nomination will participate in the last debate before primaries on Oct. 22.  The front-runner is Maria Corina Machado but is banned from office by the edict of the Venezuelan regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives opening remarks at the 18th Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Stress Testing at the 2023 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference, Boston, Massachusetts.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session at a Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Business Day event in Madison, Wisconsin.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on "The Role of Policy in Addressing Inequality" before the New School's Schwartz Center for Policy Research, New York.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Chartered Financial Analyst Society Philadelphia 80th Anniversary Celebration.

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Money Marketeers of New York University Dinner in New York.

• US Initial Jobless Claims (October 14), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (October), Philadelphia Fed Employment (October), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (October), Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid (October), Philadelphia Home Sales (October), CB Leading Index (September)

• Canada PPI (September), Raw Material Prices (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia begins registration for presidential candidates and runs through October 25.  The election is on February 14, 2024, and at this point, three candidates are expected to run, including Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China House Price Index (September)

• Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Australia Unemployment (September)

• Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss the state of the Schengen area, fighting cross-border crime and migrant smuggling.

• EU Trade Ministers will hold an informal set of meetings through October 20 in Valencia, Spain.  They are expected to debate the future of EU trade policy.

• In the UK, by-elections in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Current Account (August)

• France Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

• Poland Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), PPI (September)

• Spain Balance of Trade (August)

• Italy Current Account (August)

• Serbia Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey FX Reserves (October 13)

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Building Permits (August)

Friday, October 20, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Contributions of regional mechanisms for peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-US Summit will be held in Washington, D.C.  In advance of the meetings, US and EU negotiators are working to iron out an on green steel and critical minerals before President Joe Biden hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel in Washington.  Additionally, they are working to avoid the reimposition of Trump-era tariffs on European goods, as well as expanded European retaliation against billions of dollars of American exports. The U.S. and the EU have set a deadline of October 31 to reach a deal on a “global arrangement” that would slash the tariffs while simultaneously pushing back against the Chinese steel and aluminum industries.

• Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, a national holiday commemorating the day in 1944 when a democratic rebellion overthrew the government of military dictator Jorge Ubico.

• The Pan American Games begin in Chile.  They run through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak to the SOMC Fall Meeting at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research in New York.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Risk Management Association Philadelphia Chapter Meeting.

• US Baker-Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 20)

• Canada New Housing Price Index (September), Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

• Mexico Retail Sales (August)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

• Colombia Imports (August), Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan will convene an extraordinary session of the Diet, in which Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will pitch a supplementary budget for economic stimulus.  The package could include tax cuts, as well. There has been some speculation Kishida would dissolve the Diet early to pave the way for snap elections.

• The Asian Development Bank’s 2023 East Asia Forum begins and goes through October 21 in Changsha, China.  

• In Tokyo, The Center for Strategic and International Studies and Nikkei hold the 20th CSIS/Nikkei Symposium.  The event will feature a number of leading Indo-Pacific security experts discussing the state of events in the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

• India Bank Loan Growth (October 6), FX Reserves (October 13)

• Japan Inflation (September)

• New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Credit Card Spending (September)

• Malaysia GDP (Q3)

• Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik is expected to travel to Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin.  Dodik, who is under U.S. sanctions, was indicted in Bosnia in August for ignoring decisions by the Bosnian Constitutional Court and the International High Representative Christian Schmidt, who is in charge of implementation of the Dayton Agreement that was put into effect in the 1990s over the governance of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority entity in the country.  Dodik is likely to seek Putin’s support and help in furthering trade and investment in Bosnia and continued favorable gas prices from Russia.  Dodik has met several times with Putin in the last two years and is seen as a supporter of the Russian President.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech at the conference "SSM Regulation, ten years since" in Rome, Italy.

• Eurozone New Car Registrations (September)

• Germany PPI (September)

• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October), Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

• Italy Construction Output (August)

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (October), Wholesale Prices (September)

• Greece Current Account (August)

• Poland Retail Sales (September)

• Slovenia Inflation (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Slovakia Unemployment (September), Current Account (September)

• Croatia Unemployment (August)

• Kosovo Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In Chile, today is the deadline for the drafters of a new constitution to deliver a new draft for public review.  Initial reviews suggest it will face a tough reception as being too conservative. This is a second attempt to write a new constitution.  A previous draft was rejected by votes by a 62% to 38% margin as being too liberal.  That version was several thousand pages long and was widely criticized for being too micro-focused. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 22, 2023

 Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds general elections for the President, Senate, and Chamber of Deputies. There are five candidates running in the first round, with the frontrunner being Javier Milei, a libertarian congressman from the Liberty Advance coalition.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Japan, voters in Nagasaki and Tokushima-Kochi will vote for lower and upper-house candidates.  The outcome of the elections is expected to influence if and when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds snap elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the „Deutschlandtag“ of the Junge Union Deutschlands, Brunswick, Germany.

• Switzerland holds elections for the Council of States and National Council.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 16 - 20, 2023

A relatively busy regulatory week ahead as two Federal Reserve Board Governors give speeches on financial regulatory issues and the SEC holds two open meetings to consider major regulatory proposals.  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on stress testing at the Federal Reserve Stress Test Research Conference.  And Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on innovation in money and payments at a Harvard Law School Conference.

The SEC’s two open meetings will tackle new restrictions on short-selling and new reporting requirements on securities loans.  The Federal Credit Union Administration is considering new regulations on fair banking hiring and simplifying insurance requirements.

On Friday, the Senate Banking Committee will consider the nominations of a number of regulators and senior regulatory staff.  All this takes place while the House of Representatives continues to struggle to find a new Speaker of the House.  House Republicans are, at this writing, still firmly split on who they want to put forward as Speaker.  We think finding consensus will continue to elude the Republican Caucus, and the House could effectively remain shut down this coming week.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives is in session, but no hearings are scheduled as the chamber wrestles with who will be the next Speaker of the House.

U.S. Senate

• October 17, 2:30 p.m.:  The Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation, and Community Development holds a hearing on “How Community Development Financial Institutions Promote Housing and Economic Opportunity”

• October 19, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee considers the nominations of Ms. Tanya Otsuka, of Virginia, to be a Member of the National Credit Union Administration; The Honorable Mark Uyeda, of California, to be a Member of the Securities and Exchange Commission; The Honorable Spencer Bachus III, of Alabama, to be a Member of the Board of Directors of the Export-Import Bank; The Honorable Jennifer Fain, of Virginia, to be Inspector General, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; The Honorable Claudia Slacik, of New York, to be a Director of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation; and The Honorable William Brodsky, of Illinois, to be a Director of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation.

• October 20, 3:00 p.m.: The Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy holds a field hearing in Lowell, Massachusetts, on “The Economic Impact of Federal Investments in Massachusetts.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events 

Federal Reserve Board

• October 17, 9:20 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled ”Responsible Innovation in Money and Payments” at the Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems Roundtable on Central Bank Digital Currency, Washington, D.C.

• October 17, 9:20 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar (European Economic and Financial Centre), London, England.

• October 18, 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia.

• October 18, 6;55 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives opening remarks at The Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Employment Mandate at the Louis E. Martin Awards Ceremony at the 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit, Washington, D.C.

• October 19, 12:00 p.m.; Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York.

• October 19, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives opening remarks at the 18th Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets, Washington, D.C.

• October 19, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Stress Testing at the 2023 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference, Boston, Massachusetts.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 13 – 9:30 a.m.:  The SEC will hold an open meeting to vote on two items: 1) new requirements on securities loans and 2) new restrictions on short positions and activity reporting.

• October 18, 10:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold an open meeting to vote on new regulations on volume-based exchange transaction pricing for NMS stocks.

• October 19, 2:25 p.m.: The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 18, 1:00 p.m.: The FDIC holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee of State Regulators for a discussion of issues that have potential implications regarding the regulation and supervision of state-chartered financial institutions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Nothing of significance scheduled.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 16, 10:15 a.m.: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will give a keynote and participate in a fireside chat at the Symposium on Derivatives and Financial Regulation in Montreal, Canada, hosted by the CDPQ in Montreal, Canada.

• October 17, 6:00 p.m.: CFTC Director of Enforcement Ian McGinley Announces Updates to the CFTC’s Corporate and Individual Enforcement Policies in New York.

• October 18, 3:35 p.m.: CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham participates in a fireside chat at the Wharton Future of Finance Forum.  The talk is entitled “Paradigm Shift: Powering with Innovation  Financial Technology.” The Wharton School, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• October 18, 8:45 a.m.: CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero gives the opening keynote remarks at the Association of Asian American Investment Managers’ Annual Conference.  New York.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• Nothing of significance scheduled.

National Credit Union Administration

• October 19, 10:00 a.m.: The NCUA Board meetings to get an update on Cybersecurity and consider two proposed rulemakings (Simplification of Insurance Rules and Fair Hiring in Banking.)

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Nothing of significance is scheduled.

Farm Credit Administration

• Nothing of significance is scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 17, 2:00 p.m.: The Bipartisan Policy Institute holds an online event entitled “Lifetime Income: Improved Strategies for Retirement.”

• October 19, 12:00 p.m.: The National Economics Club hosts a speech by former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Richard Clarida on “Post-Pandemic Global Inflation: Causes and Consequences” in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations

• October 16: The American Bar Association holds their 2023 Antitrust and Sustainability: Friends or Foes? Conference” at Howard University in Washington, D.C.

• October 17: SIFMA holds its Global Tax Reporting Symposium at the New York Law School, New York.

• October 19: SIFMA and ISDA co-host their Annual Collateral Management Evolution Conference at the ISDA Conference Center in New York.

• October 19: The American Bankers Association hosts the MDI Partnership in Washington, D.C.

• October 19: The Institute of International Finance hosts a Roundtable on Payments and Technology in Frankfurt, Germany.

• October 19: The Institute of International Finance hosts AI in Finance Day in Frankfurt, Germany.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 6 - 8, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Israel

• “Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza”  Rand Corporation

  For more than a decade, Israel has clashed with Hamas in Gaza, with cycles of violence defined by periods of intense fighting followed by relative lulls. This brief summarizes a report focusing on a five-year period of this conflict — from the end of Operation Cast Lead in 2009 to the end of Operation Protective Edge in 2014. The report tells many stories and holds many lessons. It analyzes the changing face of urban warfare and how an advanced military fought a weaker yet highly adaptive, irregular force. It also provides a case study of military innovation — showing how the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) evolved operationally, organizationally, and technologically to meet ongoing hybrid challenges.

China

• “What is the State of the Chinese State? Pronouncements of its demise amid a strengthening of CCP control may be premature” The Diplomat

  Despite successive rounds of restructuring by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2018 and 2023 that led some analysts to proclaim the CCP’s absorption of the Chinese state, China’s government apparatus under the State Council survives and continues to strengthen important institutions.

• “China Isn’t Shifting Away from the Dollar or Dollar Bonds”  Council on Foreign Relations

  There is a widespread perception that China has responded to an era of heightened geostrategic competition and growing economic rivalry with the United States by shifting its foreign exchange reserves out of the dollar. It sort of makes sense – China does worry about the weaponization of the dollar and the reach of U.S. financial sanctions. And why would a rising power like China want to fund the Treasury of a country that China views as standing in the way of the realization of the China dream (at least in the Pacific). It also seems to be in the official U.S. data: China’s reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries have slid pretty continuously since 2012, with a further downleg in the last 18 months. Yet, that is not what I believe is actually happening.

• “The BRI at Ten: Maximizing the Benefits and Minimizing the Risks of China’s Belt and Road Initiative”   Boston University Global Development Policy Center

  To mark the tenth anniversary of China’s historic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) will be held in Beijing in mid-October, with several international leaders scheduled to attend.  A new report takes a deep dive, evaluating the promise of China’s overseas economic activity in general, and the BRI in particular, finding that the BRI has delivered significant benefits to host countries, but has also accentuated real risks for China and host countries alike.

North Korea

• “North Korea and China Aren’t the Allies You Think They Are”  Rand Corporation

  We have a habit of thinking of China and North Korea as allies. Indeed, China's Mao Zedong once described the two as being “as close as lips and teeth.”  North Korea is the only country with which China has a mutual defense treaty. Despite this history, however, there has been considerable friction between China and North Korea over the years.

United States

• “The Dysfunctional Superpower”   Robert Gates/Foreign Affairs

  Gates, the former Secretary of Defense as well as Director of the CIA, lays out in a powerful essay how the United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever. Never before has it faced four allied antagonists at the same time—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—whose collective nuclear arsenal could, within a few years, be nearly double the size of its own. Not since the Korean War has the United States had to contend with powerful military rivals in both Europe and Asia. And no one alive can remember a time when an adversary had as much economic, scientific, technological, and military power as China does today.

  The problem, however, is that at the very moment that events demand a strong and coherent response from the United States, the country cannot provide one. Its fractured political leadership—Republican and Democratic, in the White House and in Congress—has failed to convince enough Americans that developments in China and Russia matter. Political leaders have failed to explain how the threats posed by these countries are interconnected. They have failed to articulate a long-term strategy to ensure that the United States and democratic values, more broadly, will prevail.

Latin America 

• “Will This Be the Year Mercosur Breaks?”   Americas Quarterly

  The Southern Common Market – better known by its Spanish abbreviation “Mercosur” – is made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (Venezuela is a full member but was suspended in 2016).  It was established in 1991 by the Treaty of Asunción.  But since then, it has experienced multiple ups and downs.  However, multiple new threats, including a deadline for a deal with the EU, menace the region’s longest-lived regional bloc.  If it breaks up, what will it mean for the collective and individual economies of its members?

• “Remilitarization in Central America: A Comparative and Regional Analysis”  IBI Consultants

  This report is an anthology of studies examining the remilitarization processes in the Northern Triangle of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) undertaken by leading academic researchers in each country with the support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. In these countries, the United States is and has historically been the dominant external actor. As a comparative case, we examine Nicaragua, more closely aligned with Russia. In every country, the military had either governed directly or through civilian proxies for most of the previous 150 years.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Poles and Hungarians Differ Over Views of Russia and the U.S.”   Pew Research Center

  While both Hungary and Poland voted in favor of the United Nations’ condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two central European countries have since often diverged on dealing with Russia on the world stage. Poland pushed for the delivery of tanks to Ukraine and proposed additional sanctions on Russia, while Hungary’s government blocked military aid to Ukraine and continues to maintain an economic relationship with Russia.

Map of the Week

The Waiting List of Countries Wanting to Join The European Union 

European leaders will gather in Albania this week to discuss the possible enlargement of the EU and the status of a number of countries that want to join.  While Ukraine is the most talked about potential new member, there are eight other nations seeking membership.  The current list includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey (now known as Türkiye), and Ukraine.  Türkiye has waited the longest but has found consistent resistance from most EU members.  It will be interesting to see which nations might find their application expedited after this week’s meeting.

DWS Insurance Asset Management Conference

Nashville, Tennessee

October 1 - 3, 2023

I had the great pleasure of recently attending DWS’ outstanding Insurance Asset Management Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. It is the premier insurance asset management event out there - the attendance by insurance industry leaders is superb, the content is rich and deeply thought-provoking, and the ability to socialize with so many outstanding strategists on the future of insurance and insurance asset management is outstanding.

The panel I had the honor of sitting on was entitled “Braving the New World and World Markets,” which included Bjoern Jesch, DWS’ Global Chief Investment Officer, and Paul Kelly, the Global Head of Alternatives for DWS.

We covered a host of macroeconomic issues and geopolitical issues. What makes panels like this particularly enjoyable is both Paul and Bjoern are incredibly well-versed not just in what is going on in the markets but also in geopolitical risks and their potential impact on markets. It made for a deep, insightful discussion - I learned a lot from both of them in this hour-long event.

Thank you, DWS, for including me. Great job, Bjoern and Paul. Really outstanding event!

From left to right: DWS’ Bob Meikleham, who moderated, me, Paul Kelly, and Bjoern Jesch.

The Global Week Ahead

October 8 - 15, 2023

The free world remains aghast at the horror of the slaughter of innocent Israelis by Palestinian Hamas terrorists on Saturday morning.  Israel is now officially at war, and the entire Middle East is in a maximum state of tension as everyone tries to figure out what comes next.  Does the Iranian proxy terror group Hezbollah attack Israel from Lebanon?  What happens when Israel enters Gaza militarily to seek the freedom of the dozens of Israeli civilians kidnapped by Hamas and to clean out Hamas's military capabilities?  There is a lot to keep an eye on, and we will be reporting on events and what we hear throughout the week.

Meanwhile, this week is a busy election week around the world. General elections are being held in Poland, New Zealand, and Liberia.  A closely watched presidential run-off elections in Ecuador and important regional elections are being held in Bavaria and Hesse, Germany, which will give us a sense of the future strength of the ruling national coalition.  Mozambique and Gibraltar also hold elections this week.

Closer to home, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives meet on Tuesday to figure out who will replace former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  If they agree on who they want as Speaker  – either House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) or Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH), the full House of Representatives will likely vote on Wednesday to finalize the decision.  But it is unclear what Republicans will do or when this will be finalized.

On the global economic radar screen, the annual World Bank/IMF meetings get underway in Marrakesh, Morocco.  Central bank heads and finance ministers from around the world will gather to discuss the state of the global economy and coordinate on ways to beat back further inflation.

Several important economic reports are released this week. In the U.S., inflation figures are out on Thursday, along with several other inflation measurements.  The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, which will give markets a clearer view of whether the Fed is done with raising rates or if one more rate increase is coming.  Numerous Federal Reserve Board members and regional Federal Reserve presidents are giving speeches.

In Europe, UK GDP figures are out on Thursday as European Central Bank meeting minutes are released.   In Asia, China releases inflation data, and trade data are out this week, as are Japan's Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures.

Finally, several global banks will release earnings and guidance on how they see economic conditions in the coming quarter.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Global

• The 2023 Internet Governance Forum begins in Kyoto, Japan.  The Forum will discuss the governance of the Internet.

• The Nobel Peace Prize for Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is in Beijing with a bipartisan group of Senators for meetings with senior Chinese leaders.  They are hoping to meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss trade and security issues.

• In Colombia, the government and leaders of the dissident members of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will hold peace negotiations as the cease-fire with the FARC-EMC rebels comes into force.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will hold its 11th ministerial meeting on disaster management in Ha Long, Vietnam, through Oct. 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Germany’s states of Bavaria and Hesse hold elections.

• Luxembourg holds Parliamentary elections.

• Greece holds local elections.

• The UK’s Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan will inaugurate the first church built with government backing in more than 100 years.  The Mor Ephrem Syriac Orthodox Church's opening marks an important cultural and political moment for both Turkey and Erdogan.

• The UN-sponsored MENA Climate Week 2023 begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Monday, October 9, 2023

Global

• The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings begin in Marrakesh, Morocco.

• The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine. UN Rights Chief Volker Turk will present an update on human rights violations committed by Russia.

• The second International Conference on Climate Change and the role of Nuclear Power 2023: Atoms4NetZero, starts today and continues until 13 October. Organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the event is also live-streamed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Columbus Day, a federal holiday. U.S. stock markets are open, but the bond market and banks are closed.

• The U.S. Senate is out of session this week for the Columbus Day holiday (today).  The U.S. House of Representatives will be in session as Republicans meet on Tuesday for a “Candidates Forum” to try and select a new Speaker of the House.

• It is Thanksgiving in Canada.   Markets in Canada are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the “U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Transmission” at the 65th National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank regulation at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention, Nashville, Tennessee.

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy virtually at the Business Economics 65th Annual meeting.

• Mexico Inflation (September)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korea celebrates Hangeul Day, commemorating the day when the Korean alphabet (the Hangul) was invented by 15th-century Korean King Sejong the Great.  North Korea also celebrates Hangul Day on January 15.  Markets are closed.

• Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan.  Markets are closed.

• Taiwan officially marks today as National Day, a public holiday.  National Day is also celebrated tomorrow, and both are national holidays.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

• Singapore FX Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Hamburg, Germany, through October 10.  They will discuss how to regulate Artificial Intelligence (AI) and ongoing EU efforts to reform energy markets and migration issues.

• Russia’s Duma (parliament) meets to discuss Russia’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

• Romanian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov hosts prime ministers of Greece, Moldova, and Romania to discuss migration.

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and social policy meets in Luxembourg.

• The Investing in Africa Conference begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel at the Annual International Conference 2023 organized by CIRSF (Centro de Investigação Regulação e Supervisão Financeira) in Lisbon, Portugal 

• Germany Industrial Production (September)

• France New Car Registrations (September)

• Ireland Construction PMI (September), Industrial Production (August)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (August)

• Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

• Croatia Balance of Trade (September), PPI (September)

• Ukraine Inflation (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was scheduled to meet Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala in Prague, Czech Republic, and the two leaders' Cabinets will hold a joint session through Oct. 10.  But this is likely to be canceled due to the surprise assault on Israel by Palestinian terror group Hamas Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Budget Balance (September), FX Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• African ministers and executives will attend Africa Oil Week in Cape Town, South Africa, through October 14.  The event will focus on the state of the industry as the continent looks to exploit new petroleum discoveries amid global calls for a just energy transition.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Tanzania Inflation (September)

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Global

• The World Bank/IMF Annual meetings continue throughout the week in Marrakesh, Morocco.

• The IMF World Economic Outlook is published.

• The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), followed by consultations.

• The UN General Assembly chooses new members of the Human Rights Council for the 2024-2026 term.  Both Russia and Cuba are on the ballot.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives meet for a “Candidates Forum” in the hope they can find a new Speaker of the House.  Currently, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) – who has been a leader in the effort to launch an impeachment proceeding against President Joe Biden – are the only two candidates.  If a candidate is chosen, a vote by the full House of Representatives could take place on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on “The Evolution of Monetary Policy”  at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University Conference: The Legacy of Bennett McCallum and Lessons for Monetary Policy Today, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on “Financial Stability in Uncertain Times” at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and Policy Center for the New South Marrakesh Economic Festival, Marrakech, Morocco

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller participates in a fireside chat at the E2 Summit in Park City, Utah.

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall and moderated Q&Q at Minot State University.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a virtual town hall in coordination with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a fireside chat at the American Bankers Association in Nashville, Tennessee.

• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (September), Redbook (October 7), Wholesale Inventories (August), Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

• Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwan holds National Day celebrations.  President Tsai Ing-wen will give her last National Day speech as she will finish her term in office next May after eight years in office.  The celebration commemorates the 1911 Wuchang Uprising in China that led to the end of the Qing dynasty and introduced the Republic of China.

• Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will meet with top Vietnamese leaders in Hanoi, Vietnam, until Oct. 11. North Korean officials said such a launch could come anytime between today and October 26th, citing considerations around upcoming events, including a summit between China and Russia, joint military drills between South Korea and the United States, and the expected launch of a South Korean rocket in November.

• North Korea may attempt its third satellite launch.

• Today is the deadline for Canada to reduce the size of its diplomatic staff in India.  India’s government demanded the reduction after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of arranging the murder of a Sikh dissident living in Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Current Account (August), Eco Watchers Surveys (September)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October), NAB Business Confidence (September), Building Permits (August)

• Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Malaysia Unemployment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Romania.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden gives the keynote opening speech at the Clean Transition Dialog on Hydrogen in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an Official Plenary Session, "Facing the great systemic shocks: How to foster stability in movement," at the IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Marrakech, Morocco 

• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September), Labor Productivity (Q2)

• Italy Industrial Production (August)

• Romania Balance of Trade (August)

• Hungary Inflation (September), Budget Balance (September)

• Slovakia Industrial Production (September)

• Bulgaria Construction Output (August), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

• Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

• Greece Inflation (September), Industrial Production (August)

• Russia Current Account (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, through October 11.  Iraq is seeking ways to expand economic and political cooperation.  The US reportedly refused last week an Iraqi request for a shipment of $1 billion in cash from oil sales revenue currently held in the New York Federal Reserve Bank due to concerns of growing economic dealings/money laundering with Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Inflation (September)

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

• Turkey Industrial Production (August), Unemployment (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Liberia holds national elections.  Current President George Weah is facing a tough vote against Joseph Boakai.  The election also will elect legislators.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Rwanda Inflation (September)

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The US. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee’s minutes are released.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks on economic conditions at the Metro Atlanta Chamber’s ATLLeaders Lunch in Atlanta, Georgia.

• US PPIs (September), MBA Mortgage Market Index (October 6)

• Canada Building Permits (August)

• Brazil Inflation (September)

• Peru Balance of Trade (August)

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

• El Salvador PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson will visit China through Oct. 13 and meet the Director of the National Energy Administration Zhang Jianhua, in Beijing.  The meetings come in the wake of news the EU is considering probes into China’s use of subsidies for wind turbine manufacturers.

• The Tokyo Stock Exchange begins trading carbon credits.   Known as J-Credits, they are earned via business activities that cut emissions, such as using renewable energy and managing forests.  188 companies are participating, as well as local Japanese governments.

• Malaysia is expected to offer a new law restricting tobacco products to citizens born after 2007.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October), Machine Tool Orders (September)

• South Korea Current Account (August)

• Philippines FDI (July)

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO defense ministers will hold a two-day meeting in Brussels, Belgium, through Oct. 12.

• Hungary’s President Viktor Orban visits Georgia for bilateral talks.

• Gibraltar holds general elections.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden, together with Bill Gates, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Co-chair, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, Catherine Russell, UNICEF Executive Director, and Werner Hoyer, EIB President, launches Global Polio Eradication Initiative in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• UK RICS House Price Balance (September)

• Slovakia Construction Output (August)

• Kosovo Inflation (September)

• Hungary Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Russia Inflation (September), CPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Current Account (August), Retail Sales (August)

• Israel Business Confidence (September)

• Qatar GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Mozambique holds municipal elections.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation (September)

• Mozambique Inflation (September) 

Thursday, October 12, 2023 

Global

• International Energy Agency September Oil Market Report released.

• OPEC Monthly Report

• the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (African Union). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to adopt a resolution on Libya sanctions, followed by consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

• The  World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will launch the State of Global Water Resources 2022 report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks on the History of National Agriculture Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

• US Inflation (September), CPI (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October 7), EIA Natural Goas Stocks Change (October 6), EIA Crude Stocks (October 6), WASDE Report, Monthly Budget Statement (September)

• Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes,  Industrial Production (August)

• Colombia Balance of Trade (August)

• Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

• Argentina Inflation (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell will visit China through Oct. 14 and meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing.  The meeting has been postponed twice this year due to Borrell testing positive for COVID in April and then in July when Beijing canceled the meetings out of anger over the EU’s changing trade policy toward China.

• The government of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present its 2024 budget.

• The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – which consists of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – is scheduled to meet in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.  This will be Putin’s first travel beyond Russia’s borders since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest for war crimes in Ukraine.  Putin is concerned that the former Soviet Republics could move further away from Moscow’s influence, particularly after President Joe Biden met with five Central Asian leaders in New York during the UN Summit.  Further complicating the meeting will be tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan after Azerbaijan seized the Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia several weeks ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Outstanding Loan Growth (September), Total Social Financing (September), M2 Money Supply (September),  New Yuan Loans (September), Vehicles Sales (September)

• India Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Inflation (September)

• Bank of Japan Board Member Noguchi Asahi speaks to local leaders in Niigata, Japan; Japan PPI (September), Machinery Orders (August), Bank Lending (September)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

• New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

• Indonesia Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

• ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel "Future-proofing Central Bank Money: CBDC Lessons Learnt" at IMF's New Economy Forum in Marrakech, Morocco 

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a “High-level policy & business dialogue III" at the European Business Nature Summit organized by the European Commission in Milan, Italy. 

• Germany Current Account (August)

• UK GDP (August), Balance of Trade (August), Construction Output (August), Goods Trade Balance (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

• Ireland Inflation (September)

• Serbia Inflation (September)

• Bulgaria Balance of Trade (August)

• Romania GDP (Q2), Industrial Production (August), Inflation (September)

• Russia Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will meet Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey FX Reserves (October 6)

• Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Arica Manufacturing Production (August), Mining Production (August), Gold Production (August), SACCI Business Confidence (August & September)

• Angola Inflation (September)

Friday, October 13, 2023 

Global

• The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks virtually on the economic outlook at the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce 2023 Economic Outlook event.

• US Import Prices/Export Prices (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Consumer Expectations Reports (October), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 13)

• Brazil Business Confidence (October)

• Colombia Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation (September), PPI (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• India WPI Food Index (September), WPI Fuel (September), WPI Inflation (September), WPI Manufacturing (September), FX Reserves (October 6), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• South Korea Unemployment (September)

• Singapore GDP (Q3)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September), Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Sweden hosts the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) meetings in Gotland.  Heads of state from ten countries in Northern Europe (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) will gather to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the JEF’s ability to address hybrid threats.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an "IMF Seminar: Debate on the Global Economy" in Marrakech, Morocco. 

• Eurozone Industrial Production (August)

• France Inflation (September)

• Hungary Industrial Production (August)

• Spain CPI (September), Inflation (September)

• Poland Inflation (September), Industrial Production (September), Balance of Trade (August), Current Account (August)

• Romania Current Account (August)

• Switzerland Producer & Imports Prices (September)

• Slovakia Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Mali is bracing for large-scale protests demanding a transition back to a civilian government.  The current military junta seized power in August 2020 after civilian protesters demanded the government step down due to the inability of the government to manage a violent insurgency allied with Al Qaeda as well as a spiraling economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Saturday, October 14, 2023 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Australia, polls close on a vote on whether to recognize the country’s indigenous population in the Constitution.  Such recognition would mean a greater focus on education, jobs, and health care for them.  Australian voters are deeply divided over the vote, and there appears to be no clear view on how to deal with the legacy of the Indigenous communities.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion at the G30 International Banking Seminar during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Marrakech, Morocco. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Botswana Inflation (September)

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Global

• The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

• The International Olympic Committee meets in Mumbai to determine if a number of sports are included in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, including cricket. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ecuador holds presidential run-off elections.  The race is between lawyer and politician Luisa González and businessman and son of former President Alvaro Noboa Daniel Noboa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand holds general elections.  All 120 members of the Parliament are up for election.  Polls show the center-right National Party holding a strong lead, but observers believe a coalition government of some sort will be required for them to lead.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Poland holds general elections.  The ruling party, Law and Justice Party, and its ruling coalition, United Right, are likely to struggle to win an outright majority, according to the latest polls.

• The Scottish National Party conference begins in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

• Israel Inflation (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 9 - 13, 2023

Washington will be relatively quiet this coming week. Monday is a federal holiday (Columbus Day) while Congress is either not in session all week for the holiday (the Senate) or busy trying to figure out who the next Speaker of the House will be (House Republicans and then a full vote by the full House – as early as Wednesday provided Republicans can coalesce around a candidate). No committee hearings are scheduled.

There are only a few notable regulatory meetings or speeches this week – the notable exception being Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr speaking at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville. Barr will talk with ABA CEO Rob Nichols about where bank regulation is going.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will also be speaking at the ABA Convention and will address both the economic outlook as well as bank regulation.

Meanwhile, the world’s central bankers and finance ministers will gather in Morocco for the annual World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• Congress is in session this coming week, but no hearings are scheduled as House Republicans seek to figure out who the next Speaker of the House will be. House Republicans will be holding a “candidate forum” Tuesday to possibly vote on Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s replacement on Wednesday.

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session this coming week for the Columbus Day holiday. No committee hearings are scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 10 – 14: Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will be in Marrakesh, Morocco, for the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings.

• October 9, Monday, 11:00 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a talk with ABA President Rob Nichols at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

• October 9, Monday, 1:30 p.m.: Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Transmission” at the 65th National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas.

• October 10, Tuesday, 9:00 a.m. EST: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates, the state of the banking industry, and opportunities to enhance financial inclusion at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

• October 10, Tuesday, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “The Evolution of Monetary Policy” at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University Conference: The Legacy of Bennett McCallum and Lessons for Monetary Policy Today, Washington, D.C.

• October 11, Wednesday, 4:15 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability in Uncertain Times” at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and Policy Center for the New South Marrakesh Economic Festival, Marrakech, Morocco.

• October 11, Wednesday, 10:15 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Governor Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a fireside chat at the E2 Summit, Park City, Utah.

• October 12, Thursday, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Reserve holds its latest “U.S. Currency Education Program: Professional Cash Handler Webinar Series: Cashiers.”

U.S. Treasury Department

• October 10 – 14: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be participating in the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings in Marrakech, Morocco.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 10, 12:30 p.m.: SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw will deliver a keynote address at the Center for American Progress’ discussion entitled “Accessing Public Capital Without Public Disclosure” in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 10, Tuesday, 11:15 a.m.: Commissioner Summer Mersinger will participate in a virtual fireside chat at Paul Hastings’ Crypto Derivative Event.

• October 12, Thursday, 4:30 – 6:00 p.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin Johnson will deliver the Manuel Cohen Memorial Lecture on “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Finance” at the George Washington University Law School in Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Nothing significant to report.

National Credit Union Administration

• Nothing significant to report.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 11, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn gives remarks at the 2023 American College of Emergency Physicians Scientific Assembly in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Her speech is entitled “Beyond the Rhetoric – Conversations About Private Equity, Non-Competes & the Future of EM.”

Farm Credit Administration

• October 12, Thursday, 10:00 a.m.: The FCA Board meets at their headquarters in McLean, Virginia. The agenda includes voting on the “Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Final Rule.”

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 10, Tuesday, 12:30 p.m. EST: The Center for American Progress is holding a discussion on "Accessing Public Capital Without Public Disclosure." SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw delivers keynote remarks.

• October 12, Thursday, 9:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a discussion entitled “Which markets should be centrally cleared?”

• October 13, Friday, 10:00 a.m.: The Atlantic Council hosts a discussion with European Commissioner for Financial Stability Mairead McGuinness, as part of the 2023 annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Trade Associations

• October 8 – 10: The American Bankers Association holds its Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. Michael S. Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, at the Federal Reserve, will give participate in a talk with ABA President Rob Nichols on October 9 at 11:00 a.m. EST. On October 10 at 9:00 a.m.EST, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates, the state of the banking industry, and opportunities to enhance financial inclusion.

• October 10, Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Investment Company Institute holds a virtual panel discussion entitled “Financial Innovation Series: Blockchains: A Discussion on Types, Use Cases, and Other Considerations.”

• October 10, Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. ET: The Investment Company Institute holds a Networking Reception in Cincinnati, Ohio. ICI President and CEO Eric Pan will participate in a fireside chat to give his perspectives on the current landscape of the funds industry.

• October 12 – 14: The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Membership Meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, in conjunction with the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings.

  Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 6 - 8, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

United States

• “Support for Third U.S. Political Party Up to 63%”  Gallup

  Sixty-three percent of U.S. adults currently agree with the statement that the Republican and Democratic parties do “such a poor job” of representing the American people that “a third major party is needed.” This represents a seven-percentage-point increase from a year ago and is the highest since Gallup first asked the question in 2003. However, the current measure is not meaningfully different from the prior highs of 61% in 2017 and 62% in 2021, shortly after the January 2021 Capitol Hill riots.

 China 

• “China’s Law of the Sea”   War on the Rocks

  In this podcast, Isaac Kardon, author of China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order, discusses how the Chinese Communist Party thinks about maritime sovereignty and how it applies to individual disputes in its surrounding seas, and what it means for the US and its allies – and for overall global supply routes.

• “Microsoft Digital Defense Report”  Microsoft Corporation

  Microsoft’s latest report detailing major cyber-attacks globally reveals that Chinese hackers are increasingly turning their efforts toward espionage-related breaches of critical networks in Taiwan.   The report goes on to report Russia and China “this year pivoted away from high-volume destructive attacks and instead directed the bulk of their activity toward cyber espionage.”  

Italy

• “Has Italy’s Right-Wing Leader Left Fascism Behind?   Der Spiegel

• Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni began her career as a fan of Italy’s dictator Benito Mussolini.  Her domestic policies are considered nationalist by many observers.  But on the international stage, she plays a moderate.  Who is the real Meloni?

Russia/Ukraine

• “Assessing the Russia-Iran Partnership”  Rand Corporation

  The ongoing war in Ukraine has cast new light on the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran. Since February 2022, Russia and Iran have increased their defense and economic cooperation and publicly explored options that could transform the relationship into a broad-based strategic partnership. To inform assessments of the implications of Iranian military assistance to Russia, the authors of this Perspective describe the factors that drive Russian-Iranian cooperation and examine how the relationship might evolve. First, they briefly survey Russian-Iranian relations prior to February 2022 and describe Tehran's initial response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Next, they examine how the relationship has evolved since the summer of 2022 and explore how the conflict has led to the deepening of ties between the two countries. Lastly, they identify indicators that U.S. analysts and military planners can use to assess the degree of cohesion within the Russian-Iranian relationship as it evolves.

• “Should the West Threaten the Putin Regime Over Ukraine?”  The New Yorker

   Noted historian Stephen Kotkin, who has authored the award-winning three-volume biography of Josef Stalin, speaks of the possibility of a Russian “Tet Offensive” that could alter the course of the American elections. He also questioned the Biden Administration’s seeming decision to “take regime change”—a threat to Putin’s rule—“off the table.

• “Russia’s Crimean Red Line has Been Erased”  Foreign Policy

  In December 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood in the middle of the Kremlin’s St. George’s Hall, delivering his annual address to the country’s Federal Assembly. Nine months removed from his formal annexation of Crimea, the Russian president unspooled a historical overview of Crimea’s supposed importance to the Russian body politic.  Crimea, as Putin claimed, was far more than simply a wayward chunk of rightfully Russian land. Rather, the peninsula was the “spiritual source” of the entire Russian nation—a province that presented “invaluable civilizational and even sacral importance” for all Russians.  Few in Russia disagreed.  But now, as Ukraine unleashes near-daily assaults on the peninsula, the notion that Crimea presents some kind of Temple Mount—or even any kind of red line—for Russians has crumbled.

Chart of the Week

Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s Tenure is the 3rd Shortest in U.S. History

Washington is still gasping at the ejection of Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the Speakership of the U.S. House of Representatives this past week.  It was a short tenure – but not the shortest historically.  McCarthy comes in 3rd place.  The shortest tenure was in 1869 when Representative Theodore M. Pomeroy (R-NY) served one day.  The reason he only served one day was that then-Speaker of the House, Schuyler Colfax (R-IN), stepped down to be sworn in as Vice President (Ulysses S. Grant was President).  The House voted in Pomeroy as Speaker as a symbolic honor for him, and he retired the next day.   

Interestingly, while in office, Pomeroy concurrently served as an attorney for the Merchants Union Express Company in 1866 (back then, you could be a congressman and hold down another job).  Merchants went on to merge with American Merchants Union, now known as American Express. Pomeroy stayed on and served as First Vice President and General Counsel, along with the American Merchants Union co-founder, William Fargo (who also founded Wells Fargo), and his brother, James Fargo (who went on to serve for 30 years as the CEO of American Express).

Representative Michael Kerr (D-IN) comes in second for holding the Speakership for the shortest period of time.  He was also the first Democratic Speaker of the House after the Civil War.  He was also a staunch “War Democrat” (a Democrat who supported the Union in the U.S. Civil War).  He died in office from Tuberculosis after the first session of the 44th Congress.

The Global Week Ahead

October 1 - 8, 2023

This coming week, political eyes will be watching the unfolding drama in the U.S. Congress and three separate federal courts. First, the U.S. House of Representatives will see rebellious Republican members, led by Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL), offering a "motion to vacate the chair," triggering a likely vote on whether to force Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the Speakership.

The dramatic move comes on the heels of McCarthy's successfully gaining passage of a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the federal government open for another 45 days while the House and Senate work to get overdue appropriations bills done. 

The Republican House rebels are furious with McCarthy for cutting a deal with House Democrats to support passage of the C.R. (without provisions on border security and cuts to federal spending) in return for a separate up-or-down vote on Ukraine defense spending. At this point, it is anyone's guess how the motion to vacate vote will go.

Moving to the court cases, the civil trial brought by the State of New York against former President Trump begins on Monday. The case revolves around the New York Attorney General's allegations Trump illegally inflated the valuation of his properties to obtain loans for his business. On Tuesday, President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, is expected in federal court on gun charges. Also on Tuesday, former FTX Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal fraud case begins in New York.

Globally, we will be watching as E.U. heads of state gather in Spain to discuss the future of the E.U. and possible new members, including Ukraine. Moving to Asia, the U.S. and the Philippines will hold joint naval exercises off the southern coast of the Philippines.  The drills come during heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over control of the Scarborough Shoal. Last week, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to destroy barriers the Chinese had set up to block off Philippine fishing vessels, further ramping up China-Philippine tensions. The naval exercise also comes after the U.S. and Philippines held the largest-ever joint military exercises on the island this past April.

While this happens, China will hold extensive naval training exercises with Saudi Arabia off the coast of China, the second time the two nations have held such drills. It shows the growing relationship between the two nations. China played a decisive role in advocating Saudi Arabia's invitation to join the BRICS group expansion last month. 

Also, this week, Russia begins a new round of conscription to help bolster its depleted military fighting in Ukraine.  More than 130,000 men between the age of 18 and 27 are expected to be called to service.  Previous conscription efforts saw large numbers of young Russian men flee the country to avoid the draft.

On the international economic radar screen, there are a number of central banks meeting this week to consider interest rate levels, including India, Australia, and New Zealand. Also this week, PMIs will be reported by a slew of countries, including China, Canada, the U.S., Japan, Germany, Italy, and the U.K.  Moving to the U.S., markets will be watching the ISM releases and jobs reports. Also, there will be several significant speeches by Federal Reserve Board members, which will likely reveal the Fed's economic outlook and regulatory agenda.

Finally, we remind readers that the annual fall World Bank/IMF meetings begin the following week (October 9-15) in Marrakech, Morocco. 

There is a lot else happening around the world this coming week. Below is what we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Global

• The Universal Postal Union, in conjunction with the UN, holds the 4th Extraordinary Congress in Riyad, Saudi Arabia.  The agenda will cover supply chain challenges and mail services, reforms to the Universal Postal Union’s institutional framework, and discussion and adoption of the “Green Package” proposal to help the postal services of the world meet climate targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds its first televised presidential debate. Five candidates will participate.

• Ecuador's presidential candidates Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will debate before the presidential election on Oct. 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China celebrates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

• Today is the Republic of Korea Alliance Day, marking the US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953.

• Today is Tuvalu Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Cyprus Independence Day, celebrating the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1960.

• France elects a new President of the Senate.

• The United Kingdom's Conservative Party will hold its annual national conference through Oct. 4.

• Russia's fall conscription season will begin. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey's National Assembly will return to session, with its vote on Sweden's accession to NATO on the agenda.   Much may hinge on whether the U.S. agrees to self-16 fighter jets which Turkish President Erdogan has long wanted and has suggested may be the price for Sweden’s admission to NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria celebrates its 63rd anniversary of independence from Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Monday, October 2, 2023 

Global

• Brazil takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

• The Nobel Prize for Medicine is announced.

• The OECD’s 10th Forum on Green Finance and Investment is held in hybrid form.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Former President Donald Trump’s civil fraud case begins in New York.  The case centers on whether the former President fraudulently valued properties.  Along with the former President, his three eldest children are also accused of fraud.

• The U.S. Supreme Court begins its autumn session. They will be considering a number of major cases, including one that could effectively rule the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is unconstitutional because it gets its funding via the Federal Reserve and not via Congressional appropriations. Another case will look at the precedent of federal judges deferring to administrative judges at federal administrative agencies to interpret vague statutes – the upshot being that if they change this precedent, federal regulatory agencies would likely be curtailed in their regulatory agendas.

• In Guatemala, large peasant organizations will demonstrate and erect roadblocks throughout the country to protest alleged actions by the prosecutor's office targeting the electoral process. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in a roundtable with workers, small business owners, local employers, and community leaders to discuss efforts to redevelop and grow the local economy in York, Pennsylvania.  Also participating will be Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability at the Forecasters Club Luncheon at the Cornell Club, New York.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on the economic outlook before the 50 Club of Cleveland Monthly Meeting.

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), ISM Manufacturing PMI (September), Construction Spending (August)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September), BCB Focus Market Readout

• Peru Inflation (September)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

• Mexico Business Confidence (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Costa Rica Current Account (Q2)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (August), Current Account (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Opening ceremony for Philippines-U.S. Samasama naval exercise. The joint-Naval exercises go through October 13 and will be held off the coast of Southern Luzon.  They come at a time of heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over control of the Scarborough Shoal.  Last week, Philippine President Marcos ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to destroy barriers the Chinese had set up to block off Philippine fishing vessels.  The exercise also comes after the US and Philippines held the largest-ever joint military exercises on the island.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates the National Day of Golden Week.

• India’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday.

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q3), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September),

• South Korea Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (September), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September), Commodity Prices (September)

• New Zealand Building Permits (August)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Inflation (September)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Empresarial El Diario Vasco in San Sebastián, Spain.

• Bank of England Director of Insurance Supervision Shoib Khan gives a speech at the Association of Financial Mutuals Annual Conference in London.

• Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, takes part in a fireside chat hosted by Redburn and Rothschild on macro and monetary policy in London.

• Eurozone Unemployment (August)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIs (September)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (August), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (August)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (July)
  
  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Iraq Independence Day, celebrating the day it gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

• Today is the 5th anniversary of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Guinea celebrates its 65th anniversary of independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Angola FX Reserves

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Prize for Physics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In the House of Representatives, we expect Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to offer a motion to vacate the chair – effectively, a no-confidence vote – for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Such a vote, if successful, would force McCarthy from the chair and likely throw the House and the Republican Caucus into chaos as they struggle to figure out who should be the new Speaker of the House.  Currently, there are reports circulating that House Majority Whip Tom Emmers (R-MN) is a leading candidate acceptable to the anti-McCarthy House Republicans.

• The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX begins in New York.

• Peru's prosecutor's office will meet with U.S. authorities to discuss the extradition of former President Alejandro Toledo.

• El Salvador's presidential election campaign period will begin ahead of the vote in February 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a speech before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

• US Redbook (September 30), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), JOLTS Job Quits (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

• Mexico FX Reserves (August)

• Brazil Industrial Production (August)

• Colombia Exports (August), Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

• Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• South Korea’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates National Foundation Day.

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August)

• New Zealand NNIER Business Confidence (Q3), NZIER Capacity Utilization (Q3), Global Daily Trade Price Index

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Pakistan Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Germany celebrates its reunification in 1990,  a national holiday. Markets are closed.

• The Constitutional Court of Georgia will consider the impeachment suit against Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili brought by the ruling Georgian Dream party.

• Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland will ban the entry of Russian-registered passenger cars.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech on “Key factors of inflation and ECB’s response” at the Annual Economics Conference “Descending from the inflation peak: Lessons and insights” organized by the Bank of Lithuania in Vilnius. Later, he participates on a panel discussing “Descending from the inflation peak: Lessons and insights.”

• France Budget Balance (August)

• Spain Unemployment (September)

• Romania PPI (August)

• Switzerland CPI ((September), Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Saudi Arabia and China may begin holding “Blue Sword” joint-naval training exercise in Zhanjiang, which is south of China’s Guangdong province (neither Beijing nor Riyadh has given a definitive start date yet).  This is the second-ever joint naval training exercise China and Saudi Arabia have held, showing the growing relationship between the two countries. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

• Turkey Inflation (September), CPI (September), PPI (September)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September), GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s two largest workers unions have called for indefinite strikes to protest against the cost of living crisis.  The crisis comes after the government canceled a petrol subsidy.

• Mozambique is expected to sue shipbuilder Privinvest, its owner Iskandar Safa, and Credit Suisse in London on Tuesday over a decade-old $2 billion “tuna bond” scandal. However, UBS, which acquired Credit Suisse recently, is expected to attempt to settle the case before the case begins.

• Ethiopia will host this year’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU) ​Regional Development Forum for Africa in Addis Ababa. This year’s theme is “Digital transformation for a sustainable and equitable digital future.”

• The Windaba Conference 2023 begins in Cape Town, South Africa.  The conference is the premier wind energy in Africa and brings together energy ministers and leading energy companies together to discuss new projects and developments in the sector.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q2)

• Nigeria PMIs (September)

• Angola GDP (Q2)

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Global

• OPEC+ holds a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee hearing to discuss the state of the oil markets and prices. They will also discuss potential new oil quotas recommendations.

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is expected to release its Global Stocktake related Report.

• The Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, appears in federal court on gun charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on the Role of Research, Data, and Analysis in Banking Reforms at the 2023 Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives brief welcome remarks before the 2023 Community Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

• US Global Composite & Services PMIs (September), MBA Mortgage Market Index (September 29), ADP Employment (September), ISM Services PMI (September)

• Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (September)

• Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Jibun Bank & Composite PMIs (September)

• South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (September), Judo Bank Services PMI (September)

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives the inauguration speech for Minouche Shafik as President of Columbia University in New York, USA 

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the 1st Annual Conference organized by the Central Bank of Cyprus.

• ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a keynote speech and chairs a session at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• Eurozone Services & Composite PMIs (September), Retail Sales (August), PPI (August)

• Germany Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• Central Bank of Poland Interest Rate Decision

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• Ireland AEB Services PMI (September), Unemployment (September)

• Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (September), GDP (Q2)

• Romania Retail Sales (August)

• Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

• Hungary Retail Sales (August)

• Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Lesotho Independence Day, celebrating when it became a sovereign state from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana PMI (September)

• Kenya PMIs (September)

• Uganda PMIs (September)

• Zambia PMIs (September)

• South Africa PMIs (September)

• Uganda Current Account (September), Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (September) 

Thursday, October 5, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Prize for Literature is announced.

• Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (September)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and also to co-chair the U.S.-Mexico High-Level Security Dialogue.  One key issue they will discuss is fentanyl trafficking.  Also attending the Dialogue will be U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland.  Blinken will also travel to Austin and Houston, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector at the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference: Managing Cyber Risk from the C-Suite, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a conversation-style interview on the economy, monetary policy, and the Fed’s role in fostering economic growth before the hybrid Economic Club of New York luncheon.

•  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester gives brief opening remarks before the Chicago Payments Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the national outlook before the 2023 WilmingtonBiz Conference & Expo, Wilmington, North Carolina.

• US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), Challenger Job Cuts (September)

• Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), Ivey PMI (September)

• Colombia Inflation (September)

• Uruguay Inflation (September), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• El Salvador GDP (Q2)

• Argentina Industrial Production (August)

• Paraguay Inflation (September)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan will release its second round of treated Fukushima wastewater into the Pacific Ocean.  The releases, despite being approved by the International Atomic Energy Administration (IAEA) as being well below safe levels,  have come under intense criticism from China, who have imposed a ban on all fish products exported by Japan to China.

• The ICC Cricket World Cup in India begins, with ten of the world's best teams battling it out over the next six weeks in the 50-over format of the game. The home nation is the favorite, followed by holders England, Australia, and Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea CPI (September), Inflation (September), FX Reserves (September)

• India Global Composite & Services PMIs (September)

• Singapore Retail Sales (August)

• Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

• Taiwan Inflation (September)

• Philippines Inflation (September)

• Thailand Inflation (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Political Community meets in Granada, Spain.  This is the 3rd meeting of the Community, bringing together leaders from the EU to discuss the future of the EU as well as considering admittance of new members, including Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos chairs of keynote speech session at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany 

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• France Industrial Production (August), HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• UK S&P/Global/CIPS Construction PMI (September)

• Spain Industrial Production (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

• Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey FX Reserves (September 29)

• Egypt FX Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique PMIs (September)

• Reserve Bank of Uganda Interest Rate Decision

• Rwanda PPI (August)

Friday, October 6, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Peace Prize is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The presidents of Panama, Laurentino Cortizo, and Costa Rica, Rodrigo Chaves Robles, will visit the Darien region in Panama to address the migration crisis. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Brookings Institution Event: Making American’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century, Washington, D.C.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (September), Used Car Prices (September), Total Vehicle Sales (September)

• Canada Unemployment (September)

• Brazil Car Production (September)

• Mexico Auto Production and Exports (September)

• Chile Inflation (September)

• Costa Rica Inflation (September)

• Colombia Inflation (September)

• El Salvador Inflation (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Household Spending (August), Average Cash Earnings (August), Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

• The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision

• Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review, Retail Sales (August)

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

• Singapore FX Reserves (September)

• Philippines Unemployment (August), Industrial Production (August)

• Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Heads of State hold informal meetings in Granada, Spain.  They are expected to discuss the EU’s Strategic Agenda, which includes enlarging the EU and possibly allowing Ukraine to join.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Factory Orders (August)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (September)

• Hungary Industrial Production (August)

• Switzerland Unemployment (September)

• Italy Retail Sales (August)

• Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Greece Balance of Trade (August)

• Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Ukraine FX Reserves (September)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (September), FX Reserves (September)

Middle East

• Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mauritius Inflation (September), FX Reserves (September)

• Seychelles Inflation (September)

• South Africa FX Reserves (September)

• Uganda Balance of Trade (August), Business Confidence (September)

Saturday, October 7, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China FX Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Global

• The 2023 Internet Governance Forum begins in Kyoto, Japan.  The Forum will discuss the governance of the Internet.

• The Nobel Peace Prize for Economics is announced tomorrow (Monday)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Germany’s states of Bavaria and Hesse hold elections.

• Luxembourg holds Parliamentary elections.

• South Korea’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates National Foundation Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 2 - 6, 2023

The coming week will be critical for the future of the Consumer Financial Protection Board (CFPB) as the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear oral arguments over whether the agency is constitutionally legal.  The core of the case, which was brought by groups representing the payday lending industry, questions whether the way the CFPB is funded (which comes from the Federal Reserve instead of Congressional appropriations) is fatally flawed.   In other words, the Supreme Court could rule the CFPB is unconstitutionally structured and either gets Congress to restructure its funding or cease to exist.

Also, this past Friday, the Supreme Court agreed to take up a case related to the 2011 Federal Reserve Board’s rule regulating swipe fees for debit cards.  The lawsuit argues the fees set by the Fed are arbitrary and too high.  It may allow the Justices to look further at the Durbin Amendment, which granted the Fed further power over credit card companies and their fee structures.

Turning to the regulatory agencies, no significant regulatory proposals are being considered this coming week.  But there will be a lot of speeches about regulatory issues, particularly by Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, who will give two significant speeches on bank regulation.  The CFTC will see most of their commissioners and Chair Benham give major policy speeches this coming week, too.  

Finally, we will be closely watching a joint appearance by Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn and Justice Department Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter on antitrust enforcement and what the two seek to achieve by the new merger guidelines they recently released.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives 

• There are no hearings in the House Financial Services Committee currently scheduled.

U.S. Senate

• There are no hearings in the Senate Banking Committee currently scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 2, 1:00 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.” at the Forecasters Club Luncheon, Cornell Club in New York.

• October 4, 10:25 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “The Role of Research, Data, and Analysis in Banking Reforms” at the 2023 Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri.

• October 5, 12:15 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector” at the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference: Managing Cyber Risk from the C-Suite, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio.

• October 6, 12:00 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a keynote speech at the Brookings Institution, “Making American’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century” in Washington, D.C.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 3, 2:00 p.m.: The SEC and the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board will host an event entitled “Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government”  to share information about TSP accounts and things to consider when retiring or leaving federal service.  The event will be done virtually.  The first will be at the University of North Georgia and the Second at Dalton State College in Georgia.

• October 4, 8:00 a.m.: The SEC is partnering with the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) and the Georgia Secretary of State for two joint investor roundtables.

• October 5, 8:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 4, 1:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Advisory Committee on Community Banking holds a virtual meeting, beginning at 1 p.m., of the Minority Depository Institutions Subcommittee on "economic trends and key challenges and opportunities and the work of the banking industry and private entities that support MDIs and Community Development Financial Institutions."

• October 5, 9:00 a.m. EST: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Community Banking for a discussion of issues that are of interest to community banks, including examination policies and procedures, credit and lending practices, deposit insurance assessments, insurance coverage, and regulatory compliance. 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• October 3, 8:30 a.m. EST: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency holds a meeting of the Mutual Savings Association Advisory Committee to advise the OCC on regulatory or other changes the OCC may make to ensure the health and viability of mutual savings associations.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 2, 10:20 a.m. EST/Chicago: Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver the keynote address and participate in a fireside chat at the FIA Expo 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

• October 2, 2:50 EST: Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate on a panel titled “Tokenization and Its Role in Accelerating Collateral Management” at FIA Expo 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

• October 2, 11:10 a.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat with former CFTC Chair J. Christopher Giancarlo at the Fordham Law Blockchain Regulatory Symposium in New York.

• October 4, 4:50 a.m. EST/9:50 a.m. London time) Commissioner Goldsmith Romero will participate on the virtual panel, Carbon Credits—questioning the quality today, the potential tomorrow, at The Economist’s Sustainability Week: Countdown to COP28.

• October 4, 11:15 a.m. EST: Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Financial Markets Group Fall Conference, Chicago, Illinois.

• October 4, 12:00 p.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will provide opening remarks at a CFTC Office of Customer Education and Outreach and Office of Technology Innovation virtual event on social media investment fraud and artificial intelligence for World Investor Week.

• October 4, 12:00 p.m. EST: The CFTC’s Office of Customer Education and Outreach and Office of Technology Innovation will host Technology and Fraud: Stopping Scams in a Digital World, a free virtual event for financial educators, innovators, regulators, and anyone with interest in these issues, in recognition of World Investor Week – Oct 2-9. Experts will discuss social media-driven investment fraud and the role artificial intelligence (AI) may play in accelerating online fraud.

• October 5, 1:00 p.m. EST: The CFTC”s Global Markets Advisory Committee meets.  Their agenda includes: Presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee on the subcommittee's workstreams involving U.S. Treasury market reforms, global standards and best practices for market volatility controls and circuit breakers, improving liquidity across asset classes, international alignment of trading and clearing obligations to address market fragmentation; Consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Technical Issues Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving international standardization and amalgamation of trade reporting for swaps market oversight, global coordination of market events, improving efficiencies in post-trade processes, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on the subcommittee's workstreams involving industry standards and best practices for tokenized asset markets, the regulation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and utility tokens, and identification of other issues to address in digital finance and tokenization of assets, non-financial activities and Web3, and blockchain technology and consider recommendations from the subcommittee on such workstreams.

• October 5, 11:00 a.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will provide a keynote speech on Emerging Carbon Markets at the Baker Institute Annual Energy Summit in Houston, Texas.

• October 7, 9:15 a.m. EST: Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will deliver a keynote address at the North American Millers’ Association 2023 Annual Meeting in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• October 6, 9:00 a.m. EST: Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, delivers morning keynote remarks at the Brookings Institution’s “Making America’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century” Conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

• October 3-4: The National Credit Union Administration holds its MDI Symposium. the event aims to support minority depository institutions and will be held at the NCUA headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 4, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Trade Commission staff will host a virtual roundtable discussion to better understand the impact of generative artificial intelligence on creative fields.  FTC Chair Lina Kahn gives opening remarks.

• October 5, 10:00 a.m. EST: FTC Chair Lina Kahn and DoJ Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter will discuss antitrust enforcement at the Brookings Institution in Washington. The event can be attended in person or watched virtually.

• October 5, 1:30 p.m. EST: The FTC and DoJ jointly hold a Public Workshop on Merger Guidelines virtually.

Farm Credit Administration

• No public events or meetings are currently scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 2, 1:00 p.m. EST: The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on "How Risky Are the Banks Now? What Regulatory Reforms Make Sense?"

• October 6, 9:00 a.m. EST: The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Making America's Payment System Work for a Digital Century." Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, delivers morning keynote remarks, and Christopher Waller, member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivers afternoon keynote remarks.

Trade Associations

• October 2, 9 a.m. EST: The Institute for International Finance holds an online webinar entitled “Unlocking Private Climate Finance for Emerging Markets.”  

• October 8-10, The American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

September 29 — October 1, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Political Economy

• “Can Economists Predict Recessions?”   St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Research

  When people ask questions about the economy, they often ask about predictions. Will there be a recession soon? When will inflation come down? Why didn’t economists see the 2008 crisis coming? And perhaps most importantly: Do economists have any idea what’s going to happen to the economy?  These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. So far, no recession has occurred, although the forecasted risk of a downturn in the fourth quarter remains elevated at 34.4%.

• “Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Increase Unemployment?  Evidence from Early State-level Expirations”  Glenn Hubbard/Harry Holzer/Michael Strain, Economic Inquiry

  Abstract: During the 2021 pandemic year, the generosity of Unemployment Insurance benefits was expanded (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation [FPUC]), and eligibility for benefits was broadened (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance [PUA]). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021. In June 2021, 18 states exited both FPUC and PUA, and three states exited FPUC (but not PUA). Using Current Population Survey data and a wide range of estimation methods, we find that the flow of unemployed workers into employment increased by around two-thirds following early exit among prime-age workers. We also find evidence of reductions in state-level unemployment rates, increases in employment-populations ratios, and reductions in the share of households that had no difficulty meeting expenses.

Americas

• “The Coming Crisis for Latin America’s Left-Wing Leaders”  Americas Quarterly

  Social democrats now rule much of the region—but anti-incumbency, weak parties, and more may soon make them an endangered species.  Despite their sinking poll numbers, they vow to make a comeback.  The big question is: What does all this political change mean for Latin America and the markets?

• “Americans’ Weak Economic Ratings Slip Further in September”   Gallup

  Americans’ already negative assessments of the U.S. economy have become slightly worse in September, both in their perception of current economic conditions and their outlook for the economy’s direction. In this month’s update, 20% of U.S. adults say economic conditions are “excellent” or “good,” while 32% call them “only fair” and 48% “poor.” The overall positive rating is down slightly from 23% in August, while the poor rating is up from 42% and is the highest Gallup has seen in a year.

• “Tracking Transatlantic Drug Flows: Cocaine’s Path from South America Across the Caribbean to Europe”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  This interactive report, with superb graphics, shows that the global cocaine trade has seen seismic shifts in the last decade as drug traffickers looked beyond the United States to set their sights on more lucrative markets in Europe.  Cocaine consumption in Europe has increased significantly over the last decade. The rise of cocaine has caused an unprecedented wave of drug-related violence across Europe, especially in port cities like Rotterdam. As drug use has increased, so have drug overdose deaths.

Indo Pacific

• “China is Growing Old Before It Becomes Rich: Does It Matter?”  Big Data China

  In 2022, after six consecutive years of declining birth rates, China recorded its first annual population decline since the early 1960s. According to a forecast by the United Nations, China’s population is set to fall from 1.426 billion in 2022 to 1.313 billion in 2050 and drop below 800 million by 2100. The problem for China, though, isn’t simply a falling population but rather the worsening ratio of retirees to individuals of working age, which will increase the burden on income earners to support the rest of the population. Every estimate and forecast we found (see Figure 1) shows that China’s old-age dependency ratio will continue to rise in the coming decades.

Middle East

• “Inside Iran’s influence operation”  Semafor

  In the spring of 2014, senior Iranian Foreign Ministry officials initiated a quiet effort to bolster Tehran’s image and positions on global security issues — particularly its nuclear program — by building ties with a network of influential overseas academics and researchers. They called it the Iran Experts Initiative.  The scope and scale of the IEI project have emerged in a large cache of Iranian government correspondence and emails reported for the first time by Semafor and Iran International. The officials, working under the moderate President Hassan Rouhani, congratulated themselves on the impact of the initiative: At least three of the people on the Foreign Ministry’s list were, or became, top aides to Robert Malley, the Biden administration’s special envoy on Iran, who was placed on leave this June following the suspension of his security clearance.

• “Nagorno-Karabakh: The Broader Implications”    Carnegie Middle East Center, Carnegie Institute for International Peace

  Beyond the tragedy of the Armenians, many countries in the region and internationally have a stake in what happens in the territory.  Specifically, Azerbaijan’s military takeover of the region has significant longer-term political and economic implications for Russia, Turkey, Israel, and the EU.

Africa

• “Political unrest in Africa threatens global critical mineral supplies and their futures”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  The recent coup in Gabon exacerbates the challenge facing mineral-rich African countries, where political instability undermines their development prospects. Gabon is the world’s second largest producer of manganese, which is used to produce iron and steel and is key to the production of electric vehicles. Mineral-rich countries must develop processing facilities that turn raw metal ores into refined, usable products in order to create good manufacturing jobs and expand economic opportunities in the service sector.  The Gabon coup is the eighth in West and Central Africa in the past three years, following government overthrows in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. But until recently, Gabon had experienced no armed conflict since the end of the Cold War and just one failed coup attempt in 2019.

Map of the Week 

While Everyone Worries About China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan, the Philippines Is Where Markets Should Watch Closely Now

Markets have been keenly focused on the increased tensions between Beijing and Taipei but they have not paid particularly close attention to the increasing tensions and military activity on the Scarborough Shoal off the coast of the Philippines.  By way of background, in 2012 China claimed the Shoal as their own, redrawing established maritime boundaries.  Asa result, the Philippines taking China to the International Court in the Hague.   The Philippines won the case in 2016.  However, then-President Rodrigo Duterte, as part of his move away from U.S. influence,  tried to sooth things with China but with little real effect. 

In a reversal of policy, current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has warmed up relations with the US since taking office, changed tactics and recently reasserted the Philippines rightful claim to the Shoal.  He went so far as to instruct the Philippine Coast Guard last week to remove a floating barrier installed by China to block Philippine fishing boats from entering the area.  

One critical question the financial market should consider as tensions between the two countries rise is what will the U.S. do?  Like Taiwan, the U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines.