Global Week Ahead

September 24 - October 1, 2023

The markets have a lot to watch in the political sphere this coming week, foremost being the looming U.S. federal government shutdown unless House Republicans can a figure out to cobble together a temporary funding extension.  At this point, the chances of successfully achieving a short-term deal look remote.  Tied up in all this is the question of whether House Republicans will also block new spending requests from the White House for Ukrainian military aid.  We are seeing resistance to more funding at an all-time high among a number of Republicans.  We will be offering regular updates as midnight, September 30th approaches as well as on what will happen with the Ukrainian funding bill.

Also, this week, the second Republican presidential debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.  Former President Donald Trump has again refused to participate.

On the geopolitical radar screen this week, we will be watching closely as President Biden hosts the Pacific Islands Forum in Washington.  The Forum, comprised of 18 countries, is an opportunity for the U.S. to further counter China’s efforts to establish stronger security ties with many of the nations.   

Also, this week, the EU and China hold their 10th annual Economic and Trade Summit in Beijing.  The meetings come at a time of considerable tension between the EU and China over the EU’s efforts to restrict technology exports to China as well as the EU’s heightened criticism of human rights in China.  The Summit will likely give markets some guidance on how these trade tensions are likely to unfold further – or not – in the coming quarter.

On the global economic calendar this week, markets will be focused on inflation data coming out of a number of countries. In Asia, China’s and Japan’s PMIs are due to be released while the U.S. will be releasing PCE inflation data and personal income and spending figures.  In Europe, Germany will be releasing their CPIs on Thursday and a closely watched consumer confidence report on Wednesday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Global

• Today begins Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin continues his travels to Djibouti, Kenya, and Angola through September 28.  The purpose of the meetings is to strengthen partnerships and enhance regional security in the African continent and come at a time when Russia and China are ramping up their own efforts in the region.

• Ecuador's presidential candidates, Luisa Gonzalez, and Daniel Noboa, will officially begin their campaigns for the presidential runoff vote on October 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Monday, September 25, 2023

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency 67th General Conference through September 29 in Geneva, Switzerland.

• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is organizing the first-ever Global Conference on Sustainable Livestock Transformation from 25 to 27 September 2023 at FAO headquarters, in Rome.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The United States and the 18 nations of the Pacific Islands Forum will hold their second annual summit in Washington, D.C., until September 26.  The Forum is comprised of 18 member nations.  The U.S. will be using the event to build stronger ties with many of these countries to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

• Guatemala's President-elect Bernardo Arevalo may resume the power transition process with current President Alejandro Giammattei.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a question-and-answer session hosted by the Wharton Central Banking Club in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (August), FDI (August), BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The 10th China-European Union High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue will be held in Beijing.  The meetings come at a time of heightened tensions between the EU and China over the EU’s moves to restrict high-tech hardware and semiconductors to China.

• The trial begins in Hong Kong over whether Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai violated Hong Kong’s national security law.

• The Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds its two-day annual meeting in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The focus of the meetings will be sustainability and multilateral cooperation.

• South Korean courts will hold an arrest warrant hearing for political opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.

• India and the U.S. will co-host the Asia-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference in New Delhi, India.  More than 150 participants from 35 countries will attend the three-day conference.  On the sidelines of the conference, India’s Army Chief, General Manoj Pande, and U.S. Army’s Vice Chief of Staff, General Randy George, will hold a press conference highlighting the growing relationship between the two militaries.

• Huawei will hold its big product launch in Beijing and will unveil its much-anticipated Mate 60 Pro and Mate X5. Both models have domestically made 5G mobile processors despite the U.S. cut in access to these vital chips.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to meet business leaders in Osaka, western Japan, and hold a news conference.

• Singapore CPI (August), Inflation (August)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

• Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meet in Brussels to discuss the Euro7 regulation, which establishes standards on emissions or battery durability for motor vehicles.

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will meet with Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics in Berlin, Germany.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers in Cáceres, Spain, to discuss the Cáceres Declaration, which is designed to defend culture.

• In the UK, UCU university staff begin five days of strike action.

• Paris Fashion Week begins and goes through October 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the  Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Lecture in Regensburg, Germany 

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions & Expectations (September)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (September)

• Poland Unemployment (August)

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

• Spain PPI (August)

• Hungary Gross Wages (July)

• Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (August), PPI (August), Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (August)

• Lebanon Inflation (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Senate is going to attempt to move a continuing resolution to keep the federal government past September 30.  Meanwhile, the House of Representatives returns to work, seeking a way to advance their own continuing resolution as well as advancing four separate appropriations bills.  At this point, it is seen as doubtful the bills will advance as dissident Republican members continue to demand significant cuts to the federal budget.

• President Biden travels to Detroit to show support for the United Auto Workers strike against Detroit automakers, a day before former President Donald Trump visits Detroit to speak to strikers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks on Post-Pandemic Challenges and Strategies for Addressing Rental Housing Affordability (via pre-recorded video) at the FedCommunities event "Keys to Opportunity in the Housing Market: Research on Strategies for Preserving and Expanding Rental Housing Affordability," Washington, D.C.

• US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July), CB Consumer Confidence (September), New Home Sales (August), Richmond Fed Manufacturing/Fed Services Indexes (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (September), Building Permits (August)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

• Colombia Business Confidence (August)

• Argentina Economic Activity (July), Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Foreign ministry officials from China, South Korea, and Japan will hold their first high-level trilateral talks since December 2019.  The meeting will take place in Seoul, and the focus of the meeting will be to see if they are capable of arranging a trilateral summit among the country’s leaders. 

• South Korea holds its first military parade in the country for nearly a decade.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

• Reserve Bank of Australia 2023 Conference on Inflation

• Singapore Industrial Production (August)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Malaysia PPI (August)

• Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the one-year anniversary of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 explosions.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden will be in Czechia to meet with Prime Minister Petr Fiala and participate in the Green Deal Summit 23.

• Spain’s parliament is expected to vote on a potential new ruling government coalition.

• The Annual Baltic Conference on Defense is held in Estonia.  German Defense Boris Pistorius will speak at the event, which is hosted by Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas. 

• Germany’s leading industrial trade group, the BDI, will host a conference in Berlin to discuss the EU’s controversial green plans for renovating old buildings.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a welcome address at the joint European Central Bank - Banque de France - Centre for Economic Policy Research conference "Monetary Policy Challenges for European Macroeconomies" in Paris, France 

• Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (Q2), Inflation Report, Base Rate, Deposit Interest Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (September)

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Global

• The BRICS member countries hold a parliamentary forum in South Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The 2nd Republican Presidential Debate takes place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have all qualified to participate.  Former President Donald Trump has refused to participate; instead intends to address striking auto workers and other union members in Detroit.

• President Biden travels to San Francisco to attend a campaign fundraising reception.  He will also attend a meeting of his Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

• In Panama, the trial of 36 individuals, including ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, begins.  They are accused of money laundering with Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA Mortgage Index (September 22), Durable Goods Orders (August)

• Brazil Bank Lending (August)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

• Uruguay Unemployment (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar travels to Washington for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior Biden Administration officials.

• China's Golden Week will commence and last through October 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (August)

• Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Australia Monthly CPI (August)

• South Korea Business Confidence (September)

• Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets through September 28 in Murcia, Spain, to discuss EU enlargement.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (virtual)

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate on a panel at Analysis Forum "Rischi e sfide per il settore bancario europeo" in Milan, Italy. 

• EU Loans to Households (August),  Loans to Companies (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

• France Unemployment (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Greece Total Credit (August)

• Ireland Retail Sales (August)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Russia GDP (August), Unemployment (August), Real Wage Growth (July), Business Confidence (September), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Global

• The International Energy Agency’s Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Summit will be held in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will travel to Phoenix, Arizona to give a speech on strengthening democracy and honoring the legacy of the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ).

• The U.S. House Oversight and Accountability Committee holds the first impeachment inquiry hearing of President Biden.  It is expected they will move to subpoena Hunter Biden’s bank records.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in “Conversations with the Chair: A Teacher Town Hall Meeting” in Washington DC. 

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives closing remarks (via pre-recorded video) at the Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on “The New Job Hierarchy” before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

• US GDP (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September 23), Core PCE Prices (Q2), Retail Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (August), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (September)

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austin Goolsbee will give a policy speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington (virtually).

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September), Average Weekly Earnings (July)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September), PPI (August), Net Payrolls (August), Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (August)

• Costa Rica GDP (Q2)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (Q2)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Retail Sales (August)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss reform of EU asylum legislation.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel will take part in the Berlin Global Dialogue Forum through September 29.

• Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will make an official visit to Germany.

• In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to address the Westminster Correspondents’ Dinner.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB General Council Meeting, ECB Economic Bulletin

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat with Wim Mijs, CEO of the European Banking Federation, at the 7th SSM & EBF Boardroom Dialogue organized by the European Banking Federation in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in Session 2 of the 7th SSM & EBF Boardroom Dialogue organized by the European Banking Federation in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

• Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser at Market News International Connect Event ‘A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step: filling gaps in the central bank liquidity toolkit’ in London.

• Germany Inflation (September)

• UK Car Production (August)

• Spain Inflation (September), Retail Sales (September), Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Italy Business Confidence (September), PPI (September)

• Ireland Inflation (September)

• Hungary PPI (August)

• Serbia Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

• Montenegro Balance of Trade (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

• Bosnia and Herzegovina Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

• Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (August)

• Botswana GDP (Q2) 

Friday, September 29, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers remarks and participates in a moderated discussion covering the economic outlook and monetary policy before a Long Island Association (LIA) Regional Economic Briefing, in Garden City, New York.  Later in the day, he moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in the moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

• Nicolas Vincent, External Non-executive Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at the Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain.

• US Core PCE Price Index (August), Personal Income & Spending (August), Retail Inventories (August), Wholesale Inventories (August), Goods Trade Balance (August), Chicago PMI (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (September), Quarterly Grain Stocks (Corn/Soy/Wheat – September)

• Canada GDP (July), Budget Balance (July)

• Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (August), Gross Debt to GDP (August), Unemployment (August)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

• Chile Copper Production (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

• Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August), Unemployment (August)

• El Salvador Current Account (Q2)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q4)

• Uruguay Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Russia will host a new Moscow Format meeting on Afghanistan in Kazan, Russia.  The Afghani Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, will attend to discuss “inclusivity of the current Afghan government, counterterrorism, and drug-related crime.”  Russia has been working to build stronger relations with Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal, although most observers believe the Afghan government is not particularly interested in moving forward in any significant way.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q2)

• India Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Government Budget Value (August), Infrastructure Output (August), FX Reserves (September 22)

• Japan Unemployment (August), CPI (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (August), Consumer Confidence (September), Housing Starts (August), Construction Orders (August)

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Philippines PPI (August)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

• Australia Housing Credit (August), Private Credit (August)

• Singapore Bank Lending (August), PPI (August), Import/Export Prices (August)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Tourist Arrivals (September), Inflation (September), FDI (September)

• Thailand Current Account (August), Private Consumption (August), Retail Sales (July)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August & September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan in Berlin.  It is the first joint meeting of the Central Asian leaders with an EU country.  The purpose of the meeting is to boost ties with the five Central Asian nations, both economic and security, offering an alternative to Russia.  The EU has ramped up its focus on the region since the start of the Ukraine War.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Murcia, Spain, to discuss EU enlargement preparation.

• The MED9 Leaders’ Summit will be held in Valletta, Malta.  Leaders from Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain will gather to discuss mutual economic and security issues.  They are expected to discuss the growing immigration challenges coming from North Africa.

• In the UK, ASLEF train drivers will begin refusing to serve overtime as part of demands for better wages. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the joint IEA-ECB-EIB conference on "Ensuring an orderly energy transition: Europe’s competitiveness and financial stability in a period of global energy transformation" in Paris, France. 

• Eurozone Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Germany Retail Sales (August), Import Prices (August), Unemployment (September)

• UK GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

• France Inflation (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

• Spain Current Account (September)

• Italy Inflation (September), CPI (September), Industrial Sales (July)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

• Poland inflation (September)

• Greece PPI (August), Retail Sales (July)

• Hungary Unemployment (August), Inflation (September), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Inflation (September)

• Bulgaria PPI (August), Business Confidence (September), Tourist Arrivals (August)

• Slovenia CPI (September), Inflation (September)

• Serbia Retail Sales ( August), Industrial Production (August), Balance of Trade (August)

• Ukraine Current Account (August)

• Russia M2 Money Supply

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Swaziland (also known as Eswatini) holds legislative elections.

• Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August), Balance of Trade (August)

• Uganda Inflation (September)

• Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

• Kenya Inflation (September)

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the end of the fiscal year and the deadline for the U.S. Congress to come up with a temporary funding extension (a Continuing Resolution) or face a federal government shutdown.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Maldives will hold its second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (September)

• Bank of Japan to release summary of opinions from board members at its Sept. 21-22 policy meeting.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Slovakia holds legislative elections.

• Pope Francis is expected to name as many as 21 new Cardinals.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Botswana Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds a presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia’s first high-speed rail service – and the first high-speed rail operation in Southeast Asia – begins operations. Built jointly by Indonesia and China as part of China’s Belt & Road Initiative, it will connect Jakarta with West Java’s provincial capital Bandung.   It will be a 28-minute journey.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Conservative Party conference kicks off in Manchester. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Defense Secretary Grant Shapps are on the main stage.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

September 25 - 29, 2023

The Senate Banking Committee may begin a process this week that will be historic for financial services: They will mark up the SAFER Act, allowing financial institutions to service marijuana businesses in states where marijuana is legal.  The implications are immense for banks, who have been lobbying for years for such legislation.  The legislation is not a done deal yet, as there are still one or two areas of conflict over legislative language. 

All this come as Congress remains deadlocked over passing a stop-gap spending bill to keep the government open.  We will be reporting separately on what is going on and implications for regulators.

Also, this coming week, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, which is holding an oversight hearing of the SEC.  Watch for fireworks as many Republican members are expected to confront Gensler over his ESG regulatory efforts and recent regulation aimed at private capital. 

We would note that Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen convened in executive session the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) held a meeting Friday afternoon (September 22).  The meeting was not scheduled or noticed when we published the Regulatory Week Ahead last Sunday. 

The Council heard an update from Federal Reserve staff on international market developments, including the outlook for global financial stability and macroeconomic and financial conditions in China.  The Council also received an update from Treasury staff on the public comments received on the Council’s proposed analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance regarding nonbank financial company determinations.  The Council will continue considering the public comments as it works toward finalizing the two documents.  You can read the full readout of what they discussed HERE.  

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• September 27 (Wednesday), 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Committee holds an oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to testify.

U.S. Senate

• September 27 (Wednesday) 9:30 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee is expected to mark up S. 2860, the SAFER Act, which will allow financial institutions to provide services to state-sanctioned marijuana businesses.

• September 27 (Wednesday) 10:30 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment holds a hearing on “The State of Flood Insurance in America.”  The witness will be Douglas Quinn, Executive Director, the American Policyholder Association.

• September 27 (Wednesday) 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee holds a hearing on foreign ownership in U.S. agriculture.  Witnesses include Gloria Montano Greene , Deputy Agriculture undersecretary farm production and conservation, Harrison Pittman , Director of the National Agricultural Law Center in the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, Fayetteville, Ark., David L. Ortega , Associate professor for agricultural, food, and resource economics at Michigan State University, East Lansing, Mich.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• September 25 (Monday) 10:00 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a question-and-answer session hosted by the Wharton Central Banking Club in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• September 28 (Thursday) 4:00 – 5:00 p.m.: US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in “Conversations with the Chair: A Teacher Town Hall Meeting” in Washington, DC. 

• September 29 (Friday) 2:00 p.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• September 27 (Wednesday), 10:00 a.m.: SEC Chair Gary Gensler will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, which is holding an oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• September 27 (Wednesday) 3:40 a.m. EST/3:40 p.m. Hong Kong time: CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero to Participate in a Fireside Chat at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association’s (ISDA) Derivatives Trading Forum.

National Credit Union Administration

• Nothing significant to report.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• September 27 (Wednesday) 12:35 p.m.:  FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat with Politico reporters discussing antitrust and competition efforts as part of Politico’s AI & Tech Summit in Washington, D.C. 

Farm Credit Administration

• Nothing significant to report.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• September 28 (Thursday) 1:00 p.m.: The Center for American Progress hosts a discussion on “How the Supreme Court's Decision in Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Community Financial Services Association of America Could Harm Consumers."  Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will deliver keynote remarks.  Other speakers include Elyse Hicks, consumer policy counsel and coalition manager at Americans for Financial Reform, and Mike Pierce, executive director of Student B.

• September 29 (Friday) 1:00 p.m.:  The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Climate Change and Household Financial Well-Being: Understanding Risk and Building Resilience."

Trade Associations

• September 25: the Institute for International Finance and the WKO Austrian Digital Finance Forum co-host the Digital Finance Forum in Vienna, Austria.

• September 26 (Tuesday) 12:30 – 5:30 p.m.: The Financial Services Forum holds its annual Forum Summit Washington DC 2023.  

• September 27-28: The Investment Company Institute holds the “Future of Asset Management North America” Conference in New York.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Reccomended Weekend Reads

September 22 - 24, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

International Economy

• “Irrational Expectations: Long-Term Challenges of Diversification Away from China”  The Rhodium Group

  Some observers assert that diversification away from China is already well underway. Others caution that global value chains are simply too integrated to untangle, and the Biden administration’s de-risking policies are unlikely to succeed. Which camp is right? This new research note explores these issues using a wide range of available data points.

• “The Global Economy’s Real Enemy is Geopolitics, Not Protectionism”   Dani Rodrick/Project Syndicate

  The author, a Harvard Professor of International Economy, argues that what some decry as protectionism and mercantilism is really a rebalancing toward addressing important national issues. The biggest risk to the global economy stems not from this broader reorientation – which should be welcomed – but from a Sino-American rivalry that threatens to drag everyone down.

Indo-Pacific 

• “What Do We Know About Chinese Industrial Subsidies?”  CEPII (Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationals, Paris, France)

  While Chinese industrial subsidies have been one of the key drivers of international trade tensions, the details of the phenomenon itself are often overlooked.  Reviewing the existing datasets and methodologies used to assess Chinese public support, this Policy Brief tries to bring more clarity on what is known, and what is not.  The most frequently used datasets in the literature are dated and/or largely incomplete, and find limited industrial support compared to more specific analyses.  To further complicate things, the new development model pursued by the current leadership seems to champion the idea of “guiding” economic entities to align with Party-State objectives, which, by diffusing public intervention throughout the economy, makes it more difficult to assess the scale of subsidies.  The Chinese authorities’ highly structured and detailed communication and policy planning offers alternative metrics to assess the distribution and evolution of public support to the industry, enabling a complementary approach to triangulate the actual subsidies to industrial production in China.

The Arctic 

• “Arctic Geopolitics: The Svalbard Archipelago”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Arctic is increasingly viewed as an arena for power projection and spillover from conflicts elsewhere. In this regard, the Svalbard archipelago is an important case study because it has economic, scientific, political, and security implications for states in the High North, the United States, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance. Svalbard’s unique status as a sovereign territory of Norway with provisions for foreign nationals, Russia’s presence on the territory, and its interests at sea, as well as the archipelago’s proximity to critical Russian military locations, make Svalbard a potential geopolitical flash point. This brief examines the geopolitics of Svalbard and the security implications for Norway, the United States, and NATO.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine”  The Rand Corporation

  Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has imposed devastating losses on the Russian military and on Ukraine's military and civilian populations, but both sides have avoided certain escalatory options. Putin has been restrained for several reasons, including fear of NATO's military response, an information flow that filters out negative facts, promoting the view that Russia can win a protracted war, and incremental increases in NATO support for Ukraine.  The fact that Putin has avoided certain escalatory options to date does not mean that he will avoid them in the future. The Kremlin's control of Russia has become brittle, potentially encouraging Putin to consider options to shorten the war.  This paper examines what the risk is to Putin taking up any of these options.

• “Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Russia’s termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BGSI) was a main topic of discussion in United Nations General Assembly meetings this past week. The United Nations and others continue to urge Russia to rejoin the deal, while Russia declares its willingness to rejoin if its demands are met. It likely has no such intention. Continuing to block Ukraine’s agricultural exports is in Russia’s economic and political interest, while Russia manipulates its own food exports to appease food-importing countries. And its exit from the deal has not contributed to a global food price spike—for now.

• “Perseverance and Adaption: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive in Perspective”  War on the Rocks

  The outlook for Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive increasingly hinges on the attritional nature of the war. Which side has more reserves? Who can better manage their combat power in a prolonged standoff? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow Michael Kofman, who recently returned from the Ukrainian front lines, has written a fascinating account of what it will take to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. Kofman outlines how Washington should support Kyiv’s preferred approach to pushing the Russians back and what the West can learn from this summer’s experience to help Ukraine improve its ability to conduct operations at scale in the future.

Chart of the Week

Looking for a Job?  Federal, State, and Local Governments Are Hiring… A Lot

As the Federal Reserve raises rates, employment opportunities begin to taper off, and corporations begin to hold up on new hires (or so the Fed hopes), there remains one place that is still hiring: Federal, state, and local governments.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 327,000 new positions have been created among government agencies.  The Wall Street Journal (which produced the excellent chart below), estimates” that is close to 1/5 of all new American jobs created in the first eight months of the year.  In contrast, public-sector jobs accounted for 5 percent of employment during the equivalent period last year [2022].”

According to the Journal, most of the hiring at the state and local levels are filling backfill jobs in teaching and police departments where many public servants quit during COVID.

Speaking at the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit

September 19, 2023

It was great fun being a part of the “Morning News with Barron’s” panel today hosted by Jack Otter, Global Head of Barron’s Wealth & Asset Management Group and host of Fox Business News’s weekly “Barron’s Roundtable” show. What made it even better was to sit with Tony Crescenzi, Executive Vice President, Strategist, and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO. Tony is not only one of the most brilliant market strategists out there but also a true intellectual and student of history, not to mention an all-around wonderful guy.

This was the kick-off session to the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit being held at the Phoenician Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona. More than 400 financial advisors and strategists are in attendance.

Our conversation covered a great deal of ground, ranging from the looming U.S. government shutdown to a host of geopolitical issues and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do going forward with regard to interest rates. Tony had some brilliant insights into the issue of liquidity many major firms are grappling with now as a result of the Dodd-Frank Act and what it means for investors.

Thank you, Barron’s for asking me to be a part of this great conference. And in particular, thank you, Jack, for your superb hosting and questioning - never any softballs, always penetrating and smart! It was really fun!

Presenting at the Iowa Bankers Association Annual Convention

Des Moines, Iowa

December 18, 2023

It was a great honor and true delight to have the chance to speak at the Iowa Bankers Association Annual Convention in Des Moines, Iowa. When you get in a room with a group of state and local bankers - the men and women who play such a critical role in keeping their community’s economy going and growing — you know you are going to get some very smart, thoughtful questions on the global economy and geopolitics and what it means for their clients and customers.

And being in Iowa - and despite being the one speaking about the upcoming 2024 elections - I came away learning an awful lot from these great folks about where the elections may be headed (not the conventional wisdom!).

My presentation can be accessed below. And a few shots of the event, which was enormous - held in the Des Moines Convention Center. Thank you, Iowa Bankers Association, for having me out to speak - it was a great event, and I really enjoyed meeting and talking with so many of you!

The Iowa State House, Des Moines, Iowa. The golden dome is stunning as the sun sets every night.

Make it stand out

Being introduced inside the stunning Des Moines Convention Center!

The Global Week Ahead

September 17 - 24, 2023

The coming week is jammed with high-level diplomatic meetings in New York as part of the beginning of the 78th United Nations General Assembly. Leaders worldwide will be present, and many will address the General Assembly.

Concurrent with the General Assembly will be several high-level climate-focused summits, some hosted by the UN and others by private sector organizations, to elevate climate engagement.

We will be watching for a likely side-line meeting between senior US and Chinese officials to come to pass to discuss a possible visit to the US in November of Chinese President Xi as part of the ASEAN Leaders Summit in San Francisco. News reports on Sunday morning revealed that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently held two days of meetings with Chinese officials on the upcoming summit and Xi’s involvement.

Also, President Biden, who will address the UN General Assembly, will likely meet in New York with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The two leaders have had a contentious relationship, and any meeting between the two will be seen as a vital thaw in tensions.

Senior EU officials are expected to have a set of sideline talks at the UN with senior Chinese officials to discuss ongoing trade and political tensions, particularly around sales of advanced EU technology to China.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the UN before traveling to Washington to meet with members of Congress in a bid to obtain increased military aid. He will also meet with President Biden.

On the global economic radar screen this week, three big central bank interest rate decisions will be made - the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the US Federal Reserve. Markets are on a hair-string, wondering if this will be the Bank of England’s last rate increase and if the Federal Reserve is finally done (at least for now) with raising rates. Several emerging market central banks are also deciding rate levels this week.

Also, next week, the OECD and the Asia Development Bank will publish updated economic forecasts, which markets will read closely.

Finally, we would note Sunday is the Autumn Equinox, officially beginning the season of Autumn. Get ready to start raking those leaves.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Global

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks at a UN Global Compact Board Meeting. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe steps down as Governor and is succeeded by Michele Bullock.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

 Africa

• Political/Social Events –

NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Monday, September 18, 2023

Global

• The 78th Session of the UN General Assembly starts today and goes through September 22. The theme of this session is “rebuilding trust and reigniting global solidarity.”

• G7 Foreign Ministers will meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

• The 2023 UN Sustainable Development Goals Summit is held in New York through September 19.  Heads of state will gather to discuss the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• In The Hague, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), will hold public hearings on the preliminary objections raised by the Russian Federation in the case concerning Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation: 32 States intervening). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Washington from New York (where he will attend the UN General Assembly).  Zelensky will meet with US members of Congress in a bid to obtain increased military aid.  He will also meet with President Biden.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NAHB Housing Market Index (September), Long Term TIC Flow (July)

• Canada PPI (August), Raw Material Prices (August), Housing Starts (August)

• Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (July), BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Private Spending (Q2), Aggregate Demand (Q2)

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as a follow-up to the recent meeting between President Putin and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un.  China has proposed a 12-point peace plan for the Ukraine War and now wishes to understand the nature of the newly rejuvenated Russia-North Korean relationship.

• India’s Parliament begins a special session through September 22.  It is expected the session will cover a number of big issues ranging from officially changing India’s name to “Bharat,” press and registration of periodicals legislation, reform of the Post Office, a “One Election” proposal, and a Chief Election and other Election Commissioners legislation. 

• Chinese and EU senior officials are expected to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York to discuss ongoing trade tensions, artificial intelligence, research, and other issues.

• ASEAN will hold its first-ever joint military drills through September 23.  The drills will be conducted in the Strait of Malacca and focus on non-combat usage of military assets (e.g., disaster relief and other humanitarian exercises.)

Economic Reports/Events –

• In Japan, today is Respect for the Aged Day. Financial markets are closed.

• Singapore Balance of Trade (August), Non-Oil Exports (August)

• New Zealand Composite & Services PCI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursala von der Leyden will participate in the 2023 Sustainable Development Goals Summit in New York.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to consider the annual consultation on fishing opportunities with the UK as well as EU-Norwegian annual consultations.

• There will be an informal meeting of the EU Ministers of Education and Youth through September 19 in Zaragoza, Spain.

• NATO begins conducting “Dynamic Messenger” Joint Exercises in Portugal.

• Great Britain’s Prince William visits New York for the Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit, taking place in conjunction with the UN General Assembly and  New York Climate Week.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks online at an event organized by Foment del Treball 

• ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will chair a panel on "Value chain reconfiguration in an uncertain world - how far will it go?" at the 9th Joint Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• German Bundesbank Monthly Report

• Ireland Construction PMI (August), Residential Property Prices (July)

• Poland Core Inflation (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The recently announced US-Iran prisoner exchange may take place today.  The location is not confirmed.

• Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Elon Must in San Francisco.  They are expected to discuss future technology investments in Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Inflation (August)

• Israel Budget Balance (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

Angola FX Reserves (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Global

• The UN Global Compact Leaders Summit begins. Alongside the SDG Summit 2023, during the UN General Assembly High-Level Week, this year’s UN Global Compact Leaders’ Summit will convene business leaders, UN officials, Government leaders, SDG stakeholders, and civil society professionals from across the globe to comprehensively review the private sector’s contribution to advancing the SDGs. 

• Global Dairy Trade Price Index (New Zealand)

• The OECD releases its Interim Economic Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursala von der Leyden will be participating in the Bloomberg Transition Finance Action Forum in New York.

• Defense ministers in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meet in Ramstein. Germany.  US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will chair the meetings.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• US Building Permits (August), Housing Starts (August), Redbook (September 16), International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki will give a speech at the University of Regina on “How Household differences have affected monetary policy since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic”, Canada Inflation (August), CPI (August)

• Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (July)

• Argentina GDP (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

• Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Their agenda of issues can be found HERE.

• UK Opposition Leader, Sir Keir Starmer, will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. This is considered something of a political coup for Starmer, who will meet with Macron one day before British King Charles III arrives in Paris for his first official visit. It also polishes Starmer’s foreign policy credentials going into the elections next year.

• Milan Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member  Frank Elderson will give a speech at the 10th Banking Union Conference organized by Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer/Institute for Law and Finance at Goethe-Universität/Center for Financial Studies in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Eurozone Current Account (July), Inflation (August), CPI (August)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)

• Italy Current Account (July)

• Serbia Inflation (August), Current Account (July)

• Bulgaria Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel’s Supreme Court will hear an appeal over recent highly controversial legislation limiting the powers of courts.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel GDP (Q2), Unemployment (July), Manufacturing PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Global

• At the UN, the High-level Dialogue on Financing for Development will take place in the Trusteeship Council Chamber. The High-level Dialogue is organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security: “Upholding the purposes and principles of the UN Charter through effective multilateralism: maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine”. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US MBA Mortgage Market Index Figures (September 15)

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

• Argentina Unemployment Rate (Q2), Leading Indicators (August)

• Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, meets with Roman Catholic Cardinal Matteo Zuppi in Beijing to discuss the normalization of Vatican-Chinese relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Loan Prime Rate 1-Year, Loan Prime Rate 5-Year Decisions

• Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• South Korea PPI (August)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

• New Zealand Current Account (Q2)

• Taiwan Export Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursala von der Leyden will give a speech at the Climate Ambition Summit in New York.

• King Charles III and Queen Camilla visit Paris to meet with French President Macron.  This is a rescheduled visit as the King had to cancel his trip earlier this year due to riots in France over pension reform.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through September 22 in Barcelona, Spain. 

• In the UK, Junior doctors and consultants simultaneously walk out in pay dispute with the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will give introductory remarks at the 4th joint workshop of European Independent Fiscal Institutions and the ESCB in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will give opening remarks at the ECB Supervision Innovators Conference "Technology and banking supervision connected" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Bundesverband deutscher Banken e. V.) in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick will give the keynote speech at the 28th Financials CEO Conference organized by Bank of America Securities, Inc. in London, United Kingdom.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech on "Technology, data and innovation – Shaping the future of supervision" at the ECB Supervision Innovators Conference "Technology and banking supervision connected" in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give a speech at the Springtij Forum 2023 in Terschelling, Netherlands.

• Eurozone Construction Output (July), New Car Registration (August)

• Germany PPI (August)

• UK Inflation (August), PPI (August), Retail Prices (August)

• Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

• Croatia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Greece Current Account (July)

• Poland Employment (August), PPI (August), Corporate Sector Wages (August)

• Hungary Unemployment (August)

• Montenegro GDP (Q2)

• Russia PPI (August), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Current Account (Q2)

• Turkey Central Government Debt (August)

• Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Saudi Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Qatar Deposit Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August), Inflation, (August), Retail Sales (July)

• Rwanda GDP (Q2) 

Thursday, September 21, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden may meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.  The meeting is yet to be confirmed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Current Account (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September 16), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders/Prices Paid Reports (September), Existing Home Sales (August), CB Leading Index (August)

• Canada New Housing Starts (August)

• Colombia Business Confidence (August)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand GDP (Q2), Credit Card Spending (August)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin

• Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (Q2), Inflation (August)

• Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (August), Lending Facility Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden will give a speech at the 2023 Atlantic Council Awards Dinner in New York.  Earlier in the day, she will give the keynote speech at the Global Citizen NOW Climate Session.

• In the UK, NHS junior doctors are due to walk out on strike over pay. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a lecture at Rencontres méditerranéennes in Marseille, France.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair Session IV – Jean Monnet Lecture "Postwar Reconstruction Assistance and Local Governments in Ukraine" at the 8th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (September)

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a dinner speech and Q&A at the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York.

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

• France Business Confidence (September), Business Climate Indicator (September)

• Switzerland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Italy Construction Output (June)

• Poland Retail Sales (August)

• Spain Balance of Trade (July)

• Serbia Consumer Confidence (September), PPI (August)

• Slovenia Unemployment (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (July)

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (September), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (September 15)

• Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

• Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Building Permits (July) 

Friday, September 22, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will convene a meeting of the Financial Stability Board in executive session.  The preliminary agenda includes a discussion of international market conditions and development., the Council’s proposed analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response, and the Council’s proposed guidance on nonbank financial company determination.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give the keynote address at the National Bureau of Economic Research Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference, Fall 2023, Toronto, Canada.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat in coordination with the Greater Phoenix Leadership in Phoenix, Arizona.

• US S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (September)

• Canada Retail Sales (July), Manufacturing Sales (August)

• Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, PPI (August)

• Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September), Economic Activity (July)

• Paraguay PPI (August), GDP (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Asian Games begin in Hangzhou, China. Athletes from 45 countries will compete in 61 disciplines from 40 sports.  The games go through October 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Inflation (August), Jibun Bank/Services/Composite PMIs (September)

• India Deposit Growth (September 8)

• Taiwan Unemployment (August)

• Australia Judo Bank Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMIs (September)

• Malaysia Inflation (August)

• Thailand New Car Sales (August)

• New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Philippines Business & Consumer Confidence (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses the UN General Assembly.

• French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Pope France to Marseille for a two-day visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks
  followed by Q&A at an event organized by Kreab in Madrid, Spain.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (September)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (September)

• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (September), Retail Sales (August), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

• Spain GDP (Q2)

• Switzerland Current Account (Q2)

• Poland M3 Money Supply (August)

• France HCOB Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (September)

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (September), Wholesale Prices (August)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

• Slovakia Unemployment (August)

• Ukraine GDP (Q2)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

• Qatar Total Credit Growth (August), M2 Money Supply (August)

• Kuwait Inflation (August)

• Lebanon Inflation (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• In Nigeria, The National Labour Congress union may launch a nationwide indefinite strike over the government's removal of fuel subsidies. A two-day warning strike in early September involved aviation, banks, government offices, utilities, and other sectors in several states.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, September 23, 2023

Global

• Today is the arrival of the Autumn Equinox, officially beginning the season of Autumn.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), M21 Money Supply (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

• Political/Social Events –

NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Please let us know if you have any questions or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

September 18 - 22, 2023

It will be a busy week for regulators and Congress this coming week.   The Senate Banking Committee will tackle the issue of AI in financial services, coming off last week’s closed-door Senate meetings with tech CEOs to better understand the potential impact AI will have on all of us.  The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold an oversight hearing of the SEC’s Division of Investment Management – the day before the SEC votes on stricter regulations on using ESG labels on funds.  Expect a lot of hard questions for William Birdthistle, Director of the SEC’s Investment Management Division, about ESG and other major mutual fund issues.

Also, this week, the Nation Credit Union Administration holds a board meeting on new regulations.  CFTC Chair Benham and other CFTC Commissioners are making important speeches on climate-related regulatory issues and crypto regulations.

Also of note to markets, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn will speak in New York on international antitrust issues, a hot topic these days with so many international mergers and acquisitions in motion, which the FTC is reviewing. 

Here is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

• Wednesday, September 20 – 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on “Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services.”  Testifying will be Melissa Koide, Director and CEO, FinRegLab; and Daniel Gorfine, Founder & CEO, Gattaca Horizons, LLC, Adjunct Professor of Law, at Georgetown University, and former Chief Innovation Officer, of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Additional witnesses may be added at a later date.

• The House Financial Services Committee will hold several hearings this week, including:

  • Tuesday, September 19, 10:00 a.m.: The Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing on “Oversight of the SEC’s Division of Investment Management”.   The witness testifying will be William Birdthistle, Director of the Division of Investment Management, Securities and Exchange Commission.

  • Tuesday, September 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy will hold a hearing on “A Holistic Review of Regulators: Regulatory Overreach and Economic Consequences.”  Witnesses testifying will include Hal Scott, Nomura Professor of International Financial Systems, Emeritus, Harvard Law School, Karen Petrou, Managing Partner, Federal Financial Analytics Inc., and Mayra Rodríguez Valladares, Managing Principal, MRV Associates.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• Tuesday and Wednesday, September 19 & 20: The Federal Open Markets Committee meeting and press conference.

• Friday, September 22, 8:50 a.m.: Governor Lisa Cook gives a keynote address at the National Bureau of Economic Research Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference Fall 2023 in Toronto, Canada.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Small Business Advisory Committee will meet to discuss funding for early-stage companies and alternative funding for small businesses.  The complete agenda can be found HERE.

• Tuesday, September 19, 8:30 a.m. – 5:30 p.m.: SEC Regional Directors from Chicago, Fort Worth, and Denver) will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2023 in Chicago.   Also scheduled to speak is the head of the SEC’s Crypto Asset and Cyber Unit.

• Wednesday, September 20, 10:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider whether “to adopt amendments to the rule under the Investment Company Act of 1940 that addresses investment company names that are likely to mislead investors about an investment company’s investments and risks. The amendments the Commission will consider also include enhanced prospectus disclosure requirements for terminology used in investment company names, as well as public reporting regarding compliance with new names-related requirements” – in short, whether to finalize tougher rules for mutual funds that use ESG labels.

• Thursday, September 21, 10:00 a.m.:  The SEC will convene its Investor Advisory Committee.  A complete agenda and list of panelists can be found HERE.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission 

• Tuesday, September 19, 10:00 a.m.: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will speak at the IETA North America Climate Summit – NACS 2023 in New York.   Later that afternoon (2:30 p.m.),  Chair Behnam will speak at the Flowcarbon’s Carbon Smart Summit, also in New York.

• Wednesday, September 20, 1:00 p.m. EST: CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger will participate in a fireside chat at the World Federation of Exchanges General Assembly & Annual Meeting in Bermuda.

• Thursday, September 21, 9:30 a.m. EST: CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson will deliver a keynote address and participate in the “Optimal Market Design for Digital Assets” session at the World Federation of Exchanges Annual Meeting in Bermuda.

National Credit Union Administration

• Thursday, September 21, 10:00 a.m.:  The National Credit Union Administration holds a Board Meeting in Alexandria, Virginia.  The Board will be briefed on the Share Insurance Fund Quarterly Report and vote on a final rule regarding Parts 701 and 714 dealing with loan participation, eligible obligations, and notes of liquidating Credit Unions.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Monday, September 18, 12:30 p.m.: FTC Chair Lina Khan Fireside Chat at 2023 Oliver Wyman Health Information Summit in Chicago.

• Friday, September 22, 9:15 a.m.: FTC Chair Lina Kahn will give a keynote speech at the Fordham Annual Conference on International Antitrust Law and Policy at Fordham Law School in New York.

Farm Credit Administration

•   Nothing significant to report.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

• Sunday through Wednesday, September 17-20: ICI holds its Tax and Accounting Conference in San Antonio, Texas.

• Tuesday, September 19, 8:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.:  The IIF will co-host with the UN Environment Programme the “Sustainable Investment Forum North America 2023” in New York.

• Tuesday, September 19, 9:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.:  The IIF will co-host with Fitch Ratings their latest installment of the IIF Global Debt Monitor in New York.

• Tuesday, September 19, 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.: SIFMA holds its Women’s Leadership Forum in New York.

• Thursday, September 21: SIFMA and ISDA co-host the AMG Derivatives Trading Forum in New York.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

September 15-17, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Indo Pacific

• “Electric Shock: Interpreting China’s Electric Vehicle Export Boom”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  China’s rise as an automotive exporter is fueled by the growing importance of the country’s globally leading electric vehicle (EV) industry. However, despite the rapidly increasing sales by domestic firms like BYD, many of the EVs exported from China are made by Western companies like Tesla that have significant production capacity in the country. Exports of EVs made in China have critical implications for both legacy carmakers and policymakers in regions like Europe and the United States that have strived to diversify clean tech supply chains away from China while also advancing decarbonization. For the United States and Western Europe, focusing on boosting domestic innovation and manufacturing will continue to be an important tool to face this challenge.

• “Measurement Muddle: China’s GDP Growth Data and Potential Proxies”  Big Data China

  How fast is China’s economy growing? Or, given the recent trends, how much is it slowing down? Obtaining a reliable answer to these seemingly straightforward questions has proved amazingly elusive. Despite the production of mountains of official data and a plethora of unofficial estimates, these are questions for which there are no consensus answers. There has long been a concern that China’s statistical officials have inflated the country’s data for its gross domestic product (GDP), which is ascribed to political incentives to present a rosy economic picture to its populace and the rest of the world (see Figure 1). Another recurring concern has been the undercounting of the contribution of the private sector to the country’s growth and employment, which may be due to its second-class citizen status, which may make it harder for statistical authorities to monitor effectively, and the large share of economic activity that comes from the service sector, which is inherently harder to count than produced goods.

Africa

• “Gabon coup complicates country’s critical mineral ambitions”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Gabon, a former French colony, is best known for its oil exports and on-again, off-again membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). But it is also the world’s second-largest producer of manganese. Manganese is an important input to iron and steel but also the production of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, with some calling it “the key” to lowering consumer costs and driving widespread EV adoption. Manganese is on the critical minerals/resources lists of the United States, European Union, and South Korea. As recently as 2021, Gabon accounted for 65 percent of US manganese ore imports.

Geo-Economics 

• “The Origins and Efficacy of the Price Cap on Russian Oil”   Russia Matters/Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

  In the wake of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the international community levied a series of sweeping and unprecedented sanctions designed to disrupt the Russian economy and limit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war. This effort included a price cap on Russian oil, a novel sanctions regime collectively imposed by the G-7, the European Union, and Australia, designed to simultaneously lower Russian revenue while preserving the supply of oil in the global markets. Preliminary assessments, such as an Aug. 3, 2023, analysis by the U.S. Treasury Department, suggest that the price cap has largely achieved these goals to date. Global supply remains mostly stable, and Russian oil continues to be sold at a discount relative to similar products produced by other countries.

Global

• “Five Things to Watch for at the UN General Assembly Opening”   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The coming days will reveal whether the UN can remain relevant in a divided world. Top of FormBottom of Form  When world leaders convene next week for the annual opening of the UN General Assembly, the assembled nations will be anything but united. Geopolitical rivalries, political grievances, economic upheaval, and ecological crises are testing the legitimacy and credibility of the seventy-eight-year-old body. 

Graphic of the Week 

Where is Your Cup of Coffee Coming From?

 We are addicted to it in many forms.  But do you know where your coffee was grown?  It might surprise you. Bloomberg did a deep dive this week in the coffee industry.  Coffee is grown in about 70 countries, with five of them — including Brazil and Vietnam — making up about 85% of the world’s output. The rest comes from some 9.6 million growers in smaller producers around the world.

The Global Week Ahead

September 10 - 17, 2023

First and foremost, we remember this week the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks, which took place 23 years ago.  The pain and memories of that tragic day do not dim for most of us.

Looking at the rest of the week ahead, it is jam-packed with major geopolitical and economic events.  President Biden visits Vietnam after the conclusion of the G20 Summit on Sunday, seeking stronger diplomatic and trade relations – a move being watched closely by Beijing.  Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to strengthen ties with the oil-rich dictatorial Latin American country as Hong Kong hosts the annual Belt and Road Summit of participating countries.

 Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok to arrange North Korean weapons and ammunition sales to help bolster Russian military efforts in Ukraine – risking new, tougher sanctions on both nations.

In the U.S., the House of Representatives returns from the August recess and immediately begins battling over getting appropriations bills done before the end of the month or risk a government shutdown.  Also, in the U.S. this week, the United Auto Workers are scheduled to go on strike unless new contracts are struck with the Big Three auto manufacturers, a potential new drag on the U.S. economy.

On the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank’s meeting and announcement on Thursday whether they have decided to raise interest rates again (which seems to be the consensus) as much of Europe – especially Germany – is struggling to stem stagnant economies.  Also of note, U.S. CPI figures are out later this week, as well as unemployment numbers.  In Asia, China will release inflation figures on Saturday and new unemployment figures. 

Below is our weekly report of what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 10, 2023

Global

• The G20 Summit concludes in New Delhi, India.

• The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) are expected to release their joint report on Methamphetamine manufacture in Afghanistan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador visits Chile.

• Mexico’s Morena party concludes a weeklong selection process to determine who will represent the party during next year’s presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. President Joe Biden will visit Vietnam to discuss ways to improve bilateral relations.

• Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema through September 16.  Zambia is heavily indebted and is seeking financial aid from China.

• Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin will announce his new cabinet four months after the general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok, Russia. The purpose of the meeting, which includes leaders from Central Asia, is the encourage investment and economic development in Russia’s Far East.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to use the Forum to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on greater weapons sales to Russia to support Russian forces in Ukraine.

• Russia will hold regional and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Inflation (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Venture Capital Summit 2023 begins in Kenya, bringing more than 300 investors from 35 countries to look at investment opportunities on the continent.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Monday, September 11, 2023 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Yemen.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets in Geneva to discuss Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the 23rd anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York, Pennsylvania, and on the Pentagon.

• The trial begins of ex-Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo, accused of taking bribes from Brazilian company Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (August), The American Bar Association's Economic Advisory Committee holds a virtual discussion with leading Wall Street bank economists on "Economic Forecast” in Washington, D.C.

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Industrial Production (July)

• El Salvador PPI (August)

• Uruguay Industrial Production (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to shuffle his Cabinet.

• French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Dhaka, Bangladesh, following the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, India, to discuss climate change, trade issues, and the Rohingya crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan machine tool orders (August)

• India passenger vehicle sales (August)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. and Armenian troops will carry out military exercises in Armenia until Sept. 20 in a sign of deepening ties and waning Russian influence.

• The defense ministers of Germany, Estonia, and Latvia will visit German arms maker Diehl in Roethenbach an der Pegnitz, Bavaria.

• Norway holds local elections.

• Today is National Day in Catalonia, Spain.  It is expected that large independence rallies will be held throughout the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Commission publishes economic forecasts for 2023 and 2024.

• Italy Industrial Production (July)

• Romania Balance of Trade (July)

• Serbia Industrial Production (July)

• Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

• Russia Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• special envoy to Lebanon, former Foreign Minister Le Drian, visits Beirut for talks aimed at resolving a year-long impasse over filling Lebanon’s presidency and forming a stable government.

• The United Arab Emirates campaign season for its Oct. 7 legislative elections will begin.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia industrial production (July)

• Turkey unemployment (July), Industrial production (July), Current Account (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Manufacturing Production (July) 

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Global

• Today is the opening of the 78th UN General Assembly.

• Russia is expected to request a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss Western arms supplies to Ukraine.

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) will launch its World Trade Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. House of Representatives returns from its August recess to begin considering appropriations bills that must be completed by the end of the month or risk a federal government shutdown. The U.S. Senate will begin considering three bipartisan spending bills this week, which will pressure House Republicans to move more quickly on passing legislation and avoid a shutdown.

• Google’s antitrust trial begins.  The U.S. Justice Department’s Antitrust Division has brought the case, and it is seen as the keystone to the Biden Administration’s policy toward restraining Big Tech’s growing market share of the tech sector (DoJ is also reportedly investigating Amazon, Apple, Ticketmaster, and other big tech companies).

• Apple holds its annual event – dubbed “Wonderlust” – to unveil new products, including the highly-anticipated iPhone 15.

• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 2023 Global Aerospace Summit, with the theme, "Innovating the Skies, Connecting the World," through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (August), Redbook (September 9), WASDE Report

• Brazil Inflation (August)

• Colombia Balance of Trade (July)

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Total Social Financing (August), M2 Money Supply (August), Vehicle Sales (August), New Yuan Loans (August), Outstanding Loan Growth (August)

• India Manufacturing Production (July), Inflation (August)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September), NAB Business Confidence (August)

• Philippines FDI (June)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Northern Ireland's investment summit will occur through Sept. 13 in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Canadian Association for Business Economics Conference ‘Post-Pandemic Economics: What does the "New Normal" look like?  in Ontario, Canada.

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September), Current Account (July)

• UK Employment (July)

• Spain CPI (August), Inflation (August)

• Serbia Construction Output (July), Inflation (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel's Supreme Court will hear petitions against the government's "reasonableness" judicial reform law in a potentially major constitutional challenge between the country's different branches of government.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Retail Sales (July)

• Israel Budget Balance (August), Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Crime Prevention Forum begins in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Rwanda Inflation Rate (August)

• Nigeria Balance of Trade (June)

• Angola Inflation (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Global

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres is scheduled to deliver remarks at the United Nations Peace Bell Ceremony on the occasion of the International Day of Peace.  This event will take place in the Japanese Garden.

• OPEC Monthly Report

• International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) begins a series of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Forums featuring tech leaders, activists, and academics.  The purpose of the Forums is to educate senators on AI and the potential implications of its power.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation (August), CPI (August), MBA Mortgage Market Indexes (September 8)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong will host the annual Belt and Road Summit.  Trade and foreign ministers from countries participating in the Belt and Road effort are expected to attend.  The event will also have a special Middle East Forum to discuss greater economic and trade opportunities.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q3), PPI (August)

• South Korea Import & Export Prices (August), Unemployment (August)

• Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen gives the 2023 State of the Union address in Strasbourg, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Industrial Production (July)

• UK GDP (July), Goods Trade Balance (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Balance of Trade (July), Construction Output (July)

• Poland Industrial Production (July), Balance of Trade (July), Current Account (July)

• Romania Industrial Production (July), Inflation Rate (August), Current Account (July)

• Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (July)

• Bulgaria Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Auto Production (August)

• Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Global

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Cuba to attend the G77 + China meeting (he is expected to deliver remarks on Friday).  The purpose of the meeting is to bolster the voice of the Global South at the upcoming UN Assembly.  Interestingly, India’s foreign minister canceled his planned attendance at the summit, which some observers see as retaliation for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s last-minute decision to skip the G20 meetings hosted in India earlier this week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Auto workers will go on strike in the US at midnight unless a new contract is agreed to between the Big Three Auto manufacturers and the United Auto Workers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Retail Sales (August), PPI (August), Initial Jobless Claims (September 9), Business Inventories (July),

• Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

• Argentina Inflation (August)

• Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• An IMF delegation will visit Sri Lanka through September 27 to assess the bankrupt island’s progress in implementing a $3 billion bailout deal that was agreed to earlier this year.  If the assessment is positive, the country would qualify for more funding.

• Workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities in Australia will vote on whether to extend and escalate their strike in a bid to improve pay.

• South Korean Railway Union workers are expected to go on strike for better wages.

• Taipei Aerospace Defence Technology Exhibition and Taipei Aerospace Show begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Machinery Orders (July), Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July)

• India WPI Inflation (August), WPI Food Index (August), WPI Fuel (August), WPI Manufacturing (August)

• Australia Employment (August)

• Singapore Unemployment (Q2)

• Indonesia Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will chair the fourth Budapest Demographic Summit through Sept. 16.

• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hosts Kosovar PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets in Frankfurt, Germany, to consider interest rate policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference afterward.

• ECB Board Member Fernandez-Bollo chairs a panel entitled "Priorities for improving the EU bank crisis management framework for medium-sized banks" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel "Managing risks in the banking sector" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

• Serbia CPI (August), Inflation (August)

• Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (August), Inflation (August)

• Turkey FX Reserves (September 8)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigerian separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu will appeal to the Nigerian Supreme Court to release him from detention.  A year ago, a lower court cleared him of terrorism charges, but the Nigerian government appealed that decision.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Mining Production (July), Gold Production (July), SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Friday, September 15, 2023

Global

• Rosh Hashana begins marking the Jewish New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro visits China in a bid to gain debt relief from China as well as seeking new Chinese investment in the country.

• The G77 + China Summit begins in Havana, Cuba.

• A meeting between top EU and Mercosur negotiators will occur in Brasilia, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Import & Export Prices (August), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (September), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment ((September), Michigan Inflation Expectations (September), Michigan Current Conditions (September)

• Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (July)

• Brazil Retail Sales (July)

• Colombia Retail Sales (July), Industrial Production (July)

• Peru GDP (Q2), Unemployment (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korea and the United States will hold their fourth round of extended deterrence talks in Seoul, South Korea.

• The Milken Asia Summit begins in Singapore.  US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

• India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), FX Reserves (September 8)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Council is expected to rule on whether to lift some sanctions on more than 1,473 Russians (mostly oligarchs) who were named as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• EU restrictions on Ukrainian grain sales expire.  A number of EU states – Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia – have objected to Ukrainian exports being transported through their countries as large amounts are being sold in the country, creating tensions with farmers in these countries.

• French air traffic controllers begin a nationwide strike over pay and inflation.  This will likely significantly impact the Rugby World Club being held in France.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Eurogroup meets in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.  They are expected to discuss macroeconomic developments in the EU as well as the selection process of a new ECB Executive Board member.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference following the meeting.

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers will hold informal meetings through September 16 in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo chairs a panel entitled "Bank diversity in Europe: consolidation and/or preservation?" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

• Eurozone Budget Balance (August), Balance of Trade (August), Labor Cost Index (Q2), Wage Growth (Q2)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

• France Inflation (August), Inflation (August), New Car Registrations (August)

• Italy Inflation (August), CPI (August), Balance of Trade (July)

• Poland Inflation (August)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

• Hungary Construction (July), CPI (August), Inflation (August)

• Greece Construction Output (Q2)

• Bulgaria Inflation (August)

• Serbia Building Permits (July)

• Ukraine GDP (Q2)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Botswana Inflation (August)

• Nigeria Food Inflation (August), Inflation (August)

• Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Germany begins the 188th Annual Oktoberfest in Munich.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Sunday, September 17, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe steps down as Governor and is succeeded by Michele Bullock.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

It’s Not Business All Time... Fly Fishing in Banff!

Lest our clients and blog readers think all we do is work here at Fulcrum Macro, we want to share some photos of our recent fly fishing adventures on the Bow River in Calgary and Banff. We fished the Lower Bow River for Rainbows and Brownies and, the next day, the Upper Bow River for Brownies.

While it was rainy and chilly on the Upper Bow, it was a grand adventure and incredible fun. My first fly fishing trip where I had to constantly watch out for bears when we occasionally fished from the shoreline!

At the Fairmont Banff Hotel.