Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis’ Investor Symposium
It was an honor and great fun to speak at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis Investor Symposium in Detroit last week. The meeting brought together financial leaders who are driving economic growth and innovation in the region. Smart, creative, energetic. Thank you, FHLBI, for having me join you and for bringing me as a guest to the Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees game on a gorgeous Detroit evening!
Recommended Weekend Reads
September 1 - 3, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a wonderful and very relaxing Labor Day weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Americas
“Mexico’s Microchip Advantage” Foreign Affairs
Since Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act one year ago, there has been much talk about how to shift electronics and computing supply chains away from China. In addition to the rapid buildup of domestic manufacturing spurred by the CHIPS Act tax credits and incentives, the intensification of U.S.–China tension and the imposition of export controls are encouraging many multinational technology companies to relocate production outside of China. The focus on diversification within Asia, however, has meant that Mexico – the U.S.’ top trading partner and arguably its most important manufacturing partner – is being largely overlooked. Building regional capacity offers a way to limit Asia-focused supply risks, and in the event of a major U.S.–China conflict, an intra-hemispheric supply chain would be much less susceptible to interference. Mexico would be the key place to start.
Africa
“Whose tune will an expanded BRICS dance to?” Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)
On the face of it, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was the big winner of the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg last week. Ramaphosa presided over a summit where the five BRICS leaders agreed to invite six new members to join the bloc: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Argentina. An expanded BRICS that now accounts for 36% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and 46% of the world’s population. But if the expansion was a success for Ramaphosa, it was arguably an even greater success for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who campaigned energetically for enlarging the alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India was apparently reluctant because he suspected this would increase Xi’s global power. Modi is likely to be proven correct.
“The Niger Coup’s Outsized Global Impact” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
This latest coup in West Africa is a major blow to Niger, the Sahel region, and West Africa as a whole. The junta has publicly accused France, which has some 1,500 troops in Niger, of trying to destabilize the country. The crisis has also been closely monitored in Washington, given the presence of U.S. military bases and political engagement in the landlocked country at the heart of the Sahel. While Niger’s economic and social indicators place it at the bottom of global development indices, these metrics also understate the country’s strategic importance of this vast country. Its geographical position at the crossroads of North, West, and Central Africa, its mineral and oil resources, its potential for the development of renewable energies, and its strong demographic growth help explain the seemingly outsize interest of medium and large powers in the current crisis. This report is an exploration of the major ways the crisis has rippled through the country, the region, and the world.
Indo-Pacific
“What Kind of World does Xi Jinping Want?” Harvard Kennedy School
When Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a “Joint Statement” with President Putin, claiming there would be “no limits” to the relationship, some wondered whether this heralded the creation of a new world order. The statement does reference the trend toward the “redistribution of power in the world.” So, what kind of a world does Xi want to see? Two major principles drive his view. First, security and sovereignty issues must all be aligned to ensure the continued rule of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, he insists that China be seen as at least an equal player in the world, making it a key participant in defining the rules of the road.
Political Economy
“Protests” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper
Abstract: Citizens have long taken to the streets to demand change, expressing political views that may otherwise be suppressed. Protests have produced change at local, national, and international scales, including spectacular moments of political and social transformation. We document five new empirical patterns describing 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020. First, autocracies and weak democracies experienced a trend break in protests during the Arab Spring. Second, protest movements also rose in importance following the Arab Spring. Third, protest movements geographically diffuse over time, spiking to their peak before falling off. Fourth, a country’s year-to-year economic performance is not strongly correlated with protests; individual values are predictive of protest participation. Fifth, the US, China, and Russia are the most over-represented countries by their share of academic studies. We discuss each pattern’s connections to the existing literature and anticipate paths for future work.
“The FMOC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Using close to 40 years of textual data from FOMC transcripts and the Federal Reserve staff's Greenbook/Tealbook, we extend Romer and Romer (2008) to test if the FOMC adds information relative to its staff forecasts not via its own quantitative forecasts but via its words. We use methods from natural language processing to extract from both types of document text-based forecasts that capture attentiveness to and sentiment about the macroeconomy. We test whether these text-based forecasts provide value-added in explaining the distribution of outcomes for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation. We find that FOMC tales about macroeconomic risks do add value in the tails, especially for GDP growth and the unemployment rate. For inflation, we find value-added in both FOMC point forecasts and narrative once we extract from the text a broader set of measures of macroeconomic sentiment and risk attentiveness.
Chart of the Week
The End of the Temporary Student Loan Payment Reprieve:
So, Where Are You Going to Cut Your Spending to Pay Back Your Debt?
In late June, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program. On Friday, September 1st, student loans accruing interest will begin again, and borrowers will have to start making payments again in October. The Financial Times took a deep dive and asked: So, now that you have to start paying back your debt again, where are you planning to cut your spending? It looks like restaurants, grocery stores, and the travel industry are going to be the big losers.
U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead
September 4 - 8, 2023
Summer vacations are finished, the kids are back to school, and Washington is roaring back to life this week. The Senate is back in session (the House comes back on September 11th). There are a number of meetings and events of note this week.
But first, we would note that last week, the FDIC’s Board of Directors held an Open Meeting to consider five resolutions dealing with long-term debt requirements, new filings for institutions with $100 billion or more in total assets, and approval of new procedures for approving the resolution and sale of midsized and large banks. You can read the FDIC’s full proposals and background memorandums HERE.
We are also watching the lawsuit brought by a consortium of hedge fund, private equity, and venture capital trade associations against the Securities and Exchange Commission for their newly adopted rule on regulating private funds. Our friends at Capitol Account (there is a paywall, but as avid readers ourselves, we strongly encourage you to subscribe – it’s worth every penny) point out that Gene Scalia is the lead lawyer on the case. And knowing Gene’s track record in court, previously bringing suits against the SEC and other regulators, our betting money is on the plaintiffs.
Below is our listing of major events in Washington this coming week. It is going to get more and more busy in the coming weeks and months, and we hope we can help you keep on top of it all. Let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
September 7, 2023, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on "Perspectives on Challenges in the Property Insurance Market and the Impact on Consumers." The witnesses will be Douglas Heller, Director of Insurance at the Consumer Federation of America, and Jerry Theodorou, Policy Director for finance, insurance, and trade at the R Street Institute.
The House of Representatives is out of session but returns to work on Tuesday, September 11th.
US Regulatory Meetings & Events
U.S. Treasury Department
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel with President Biden to New Delhi, India, to participate in the G20 Leaders’ Summit through September 10.
U.S. Federal Reserve Board
September 7, 2023 – 4:55 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman will participate in a panel entitled “The Future of Money and Consumer Protection” At the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Seventh Annual Fintech Conference, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
September 8, 2023 – 9:00 a.m.: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on payment innovations at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Seventh Annual Fintech Conference, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.
Securities and Exchange Commission
September 6, 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold an open meeting to consider whether to adopt a proposed amendment to the National Market System Plan Governing the Consolidated Audit Trail (“CAT NMS Plan”) to implement a revised funding model (“Executed Share Model”) for the consolidated audit trail (“CAT”) and to establish a fee schedule for CAT fees for the self-regulatory organizations that are participants to the CAT NMS Plan in accordance with the Executed Share Model.
September 7, 2023, 2:00 p.m.: The SEC will hold a closed meeting.
NOTE: SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on September 12th. He is also now scheduled also scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Sept. 27th.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
Friday, September 8, 2023 – 11:30 – 12:30 p.m., The Grand Hyatt, Nashville, TN: Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in a fireside chat at the National Association of Federal Equity Receivers Annual Conference.
Federal Trade Commission
September 5 – 1:00 p.m. – 4:15 p.m.: The FTC co-holds the first of three workshops with the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division on their 2023 Draft Merger Guidelines. The workshop will consist of two panels:
Panel 1: Evolving Approaches to Raising Rivals’ Costs and Vertical Mergers from the 2020 Vertical Merger Guidelines(VMG) to the Draft Merger Guidelines
Panel 2: Evolving Approaches to Mergers Between Rivals from the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines (HMG) to the Draft Merger Guidelines
Farm Credit Administration
Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Think Tanks
September 6, 2023, 9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.: Is limited liability the best regime for banks?
September 7, 2023, 9:00 a.m.: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Capital Market Competitiveness holds a discussion on "European Union Corporate Disclosure Requirements” at the U.S. Chamber. Speakers include Dalia Blass, Partner at Sullivan & Cromwell; Sonja Gibbs, Managing director and head of sustainable finance at the Institute of International Finance; Emmanuel Faber, Chair of the International Sustainability Standards Board; David Woodcock, Partner at Gibson Dunn; Peter Matheson, Managing director of international policy and advocacy at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Dan Crowley, Partner at K&L Gates.
September 7, 2023, 9:30 a.m.: The CATO Institute holds a conference entitled “Staying Ahead of the Curve: Crypto Regulation and Competitiveness.” Speakers include:
— 9:35 a.m.: Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) delivers remarks
— 10:15 a.m.: Panel discussion on "Stablecoins, the Dollar and Regulation"
— 11:45 a.m.: Panel discussion on "Crypto Regulatory Uncertainty and U.S. Competitiveness"
— 2 p.m.: Panel discussion on "Regulating Open-Source Financial Technology"
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
August 27 - September 3, 2023
This coming Friday is the first day of the meteorological autumn. Goodbye, Summer, and welcome to what we expect will be a hectic fall.
In the coming week, we are watching several significant geopolitical events - three of which deal with China. First, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo begins a four-day visit to Beijing to discuss trade issues – the sale of semiconductors being the paramount issue for China. Second, while she is there, Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will meet his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. Cleverly will be the first UK Foreign Secretary to visit China in five years. And third, on Friday, Dutch restrictions on the export of chip manufacturing equipment to China go into effect (The Netherlands is home to ASML, the world’s most valuable chip tool maker and a one-time major supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China).
Also in Europe this week, foreign and defense ministers from the Baltic States and Poland will meet to discuss the growing threat of Russian Wagner Group forces who have amassed in Belarus on the Polish border.
On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching closely the U.S. GDP employment figures and inflation indicators, giving them a sharper insight into the Federal Reserve’s possible thinking on future monetary tightening.
China will release PMIs this week in the face of growing economic headwinds. And several important Eurozone CPIs will be out, including Germany’s.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, August 27, 2023
Global
Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo begins a four-day trip to China. She is expected to announce a working on export controls and commercial issues dealing with China. The trip and announcement of the new working group are seen as likely to alleviate slightly trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, markets will be watching to see if there is a breakthrough in restarting Chinese purchases of Boeing 737 Max jets.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visits Vietnam through August 29. He will meet with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to discuss improving trade and security issues as well as witness the ground-breaking of several new industrial parks. This marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations and the 10th year since they signed a strategic partnership.
North Korea is expected to launch a second spy satellite in the coming days after a previous effort - “Chollima-1” failed in May.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Industrial Profits (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Turkey's opposition People's Democratic Party will hold its fourth annual grand congress in Ankara.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Zimbabwe reports the election results from its August 23 general election. Incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa appears to have won over opposition leader Nelson Chamisa. There have been serious allegations of voter suppression and cheating the risk of a violent response to the results is significant.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Monday, August 28, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on the situation in Mali, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Following this, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Mali and Head of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), El Ghassim Wane, will brief reporters virtually on MINUSMA’s withdrawal process (following Security Council consultations).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Former President Donald Trump has a hearing before Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington, D.C., regarding the criminal charges brought against him for involvement in the January 6th insurrection.
Today is the 60th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C.
Economic Reports/Events –
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr participates in the "Banking Services" roundtable discussion with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes Council in Pablo, Montana.
Brazil Bank Lending (July), BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Workers at a Chevron Wheatstone liquified natural gas facility in Australia will vote on whether to permit unions to strike. The risk of a strike led to a spike in natural gas prices in Europe in the last few weeks, but now with a deal in sight, prices tumbled in the last few days.
Three Canadian naval ships will visit Yokosuka Port in Tokyo Bay to be refueled. The visit is part of Canada’s strategy to increase the country’s role in maintaining security in greater Indo-China.
Japan will launch the moon lander for its "Moon Sniper" mission. They hope to land on a small crater close to the Moon’s equator on the side facing Earth.
Tropical storm Saola will hit maximum strength east of the Philippines and may be designated as a super typhoon.
Yamaguchi Natsuo, leader of Japan’s Komeito Party (which is the junior partner in the ruling coalition), meets Chinese officials in Beijing.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Industrial Profits (July)
Japan Coincident Index (June), Leading Economic Index (June)
Australia Retail Sales (July)
Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)
Philippines Budget Balance (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Officials from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will meet in Warsaw, Poland, to discuss the possibility of a complete border closure with Belarus. In recent weeks, Wagner Group forces have increased their presence on the Polish border, leading to a Polish military build-up to counter any possible aggression.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will meet his Czech counterpart, Jan Lipavsky, in Prague.
The European Parliament returns to work in Brussels. Multiple committee meetings are scheduled throughout the week. Among the key issues they will focus on is a €50 billion initiative to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization from 2024 to 2027.
The Bled Strategic Forum will be held in Bled, Slovenia, through August 29. Attendees will include leaders from Southern and Southwestern Europe.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone Loans to Households and Companies (July)
Ireland Retail Sales (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (July)
Qatar GDP (Q1)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Biden will host Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves Robles for bilateral meetings at the White House. Among the issues they will discuss is an agreement between the two countries on a possible legal pathway for migrants.
Economic Reports/Events –
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr participates in the "Banking Services" roundtable discussion with the Blackfeet Business Council in Browning, Montana.
US S&P/Case Shiller Indexes (June), JOLTs Job Reports (July), Dallas Fed Services Index (August), Redbook (August 26)
Mexico GDP (Q2), Economic Activity (June)
Colombia Business Confidence (July)
El Salvador Current Account (Q2)
Uruguay Unemployment (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Unemployment (July)
Australia Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Michele Bullock gives her last speech at a lecture on climate change and the transition to net zero emissions at the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia.
Singapore Import/Export Prices (July), PPI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
The European Council of Defense Ministers will hold informal meetings through August 30 in Toledo, Spain.
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will meet his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. Cleverly will be the first UK Foreign Secretary to visit China in five years. He was previously scheduled to meet in July with the then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. But after Qin mysteriously disappeared from public view and then was removed from office, Cleverly canceled the trip.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)
France Consumer Confidence (August)
Spain Retail Sales (July)
Hungary GDP (Q2), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Qatar Balance of Trade (July)
Turkey Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (July), Economic Confidence Index (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
Global
The UN’s 8th Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation (APAN) Forum, hosted within the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, will take place from through September 1 in Incheon City, South Korea.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
US GDP (Q2), PCDE Prices (Q2), MBA Mortgage Indexes (August 25), ADP Employment Change (August ()Goods Trade Balance (July), Corporate Profits (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (July)
Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August), PPI (July), Net Payrolls (July)
Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura will give a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Consumer Confidence (August)
New Zealand Building Permits (July)
Philippines PPI (July)
Australia Monthly CPI Indicator. (July), Building Permits (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Today is the La Tomatina Festival in Buñol, Spain. More than 20,000 people are expected to show up and throw tomatoes at each other.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone Economic Sentiment (August), New Car Registrations (July)
Germany Inflation (August), Import Prices (July)
UK Mortgage Approvals (July), BoE Consumer Credit (July)
Italy Business Confidence/Consumer Confidence (August), Industrial Sales (June)
Spain Inflation (August), Business Confidence (August)
Ireland Inflation (August)
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August), Economic Sentiment Index (August)
Bulgaria PPI (July), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Hungary Retail Sales
Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (July), PPI (July), Retail Sales (July)
Russia Business Confidence (August), Corporate Profits (June), Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Thursday, August 31, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks virtually on creating an economy that works for all, and the role community colleges play in the nation's essential development of its people and workforce before the Bunker Hill Community College annual convocation in Boston, Massachusetts.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation hosted by Broward College in Davie, Florida.
US Core PCE Price Index (July), Personal Income (July), Initial Jobless Claims (August 26), Challenger Job Cuts (August), Chicago PMI (August)
Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August), Current Account (Q2)
Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (July), Gross Debt to GDP (July), Unemployment (July)
Mexico Unemployment (July)
Chile Copper Production (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Retail Sales (July)
Argentina Consumer Confidence (August), Tax Revenue (August)
Colombia Cement Production (July), Unemployment (July)
Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Indonesian military forces will team with US military forces to host “Super Garuda Shield,” a military drill in East Java that will run through mid-September. 20 other countries will participate, including Japan, Singapore, Australia, and the UK.
Pope Francis begins a visit to Mongolia through September 4.
Economic Reports/Events –
China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August), NBS General PMI (August)
Bank of Japan Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura will give a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Gifu, Japan, Japan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Housing Starts (July)
India GDP (Q2)
South Korea Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)
Australia Private Sector Credit (July)
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)
Singapore Bank Lending (July)
Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)
Thailand Industrial Production (July), Current Account ((July), Retail Sales (July)
Sri Lanka Inflation (August)
Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give opening remarks at a conference entitled “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics,” organized by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.
ECB Board Member Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at a seminar organized by the Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Bank of England Chief Economist and Executive Director Huw Pill speaks at the South African Reserve Bank Biennial Conference on “Back to target? Monetary policy in advanced economies” in Cape Town, South Africa. UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August)
Eurozone Inflation (August), Unemployment Rate (July), CPI (August)
Germany Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (August)
Italy Unemployment (July), Inflation (August), CPI (August)
Spain Consumer Confidence (July)
France Inflation (August), GDP (Q2), PPI (July)
Hungary PPI (July), Inflation (August)
Poland Inflation (August), GDP (Q2)
Spain Current Account (June)
Switzerland Retail Sales (July)
North Macedonia Retail Sales (August), Current Account (Q2), Industrial Production (July)
Serbia GDP (Q2), Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (Q2)
Kosovo Unemployment (2022)
Ukraine Current Account (July)
Russia GDP (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey GDP (Q2), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (August 25)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Uganda Inflation (August)
Nigeria FX Reserves (August)
South Africa PPI (July), Balance of Trade (July)
Friday, September 1, 2023
Global
Albania assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of September.
Today is the first day of the meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Goodbye, Summer. We will miss you.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Brazil’s ex-president Jair Bolsonaro gives evidence to police over allegations of illegal import of jewelry. It is alleged Bolsonaro ordered an aide to sell undeclared luxury jewelry worth more than $70,000 (two watches) he had received as a gift and funnel the money back to him.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Unemployment (August), Non-Farm Payrolls (August), Participation Rate (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), ISM Manufacturing New Orders & Prices (August), Construction Spending (July)
Canada GDP (Q2), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Mexico FX Reserves (July), Business Confidence (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Brazil GDP (Q2), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Balance of Trade (August)
Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)
Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)
Peru Inflation (August)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Singapore holds presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)
Japan Capital Spending (Q2)
India Government Budget Value (July), Infrastructure Output (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Business Confidence (August)
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (August), Home Loans (July), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (August), Commodity Prices (August)
New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (August)
Indonesia Inflation (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Dutch export controls over semiconductor chip equipment to China go into effect. ASML is headquartered in the Netherlands, the world’s most valuable chip tool maker.
NATO will conclude its “Agile Spirit 2023” exercises in Georgia.
The maiden flight of the Spanish-built Miura 1 rocket launched from Moguer, Spain.
France’s controversial pension reform comes into force.
In the UK, Aslef union members (train drivers) will go on strike for more pay.
Also, in the UK, the sale of fluorescent lightbulbs for household use is banned as of today.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)
France Budget Balance (July), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August), New Car Registrations (July)
Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August), New Car Registrations (August)
Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)
Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August), GDP (Q2), GNP (Q2), PPI (July)
Hungary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Balance of Trade (June), GDP (Q2), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)
Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Switzerland Inflation (August), CPI (August), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)
Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Total Vehicle Sales (August)
Saturday, September 2, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
The China International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing. A large number of foreign tech companies are expected to attend.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
In the UK, 20,000 RMT union members across 14 train companies go on strike for 24 hours over pay and working conditions.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Cote D’Ivoire holds regional and municipal elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Sunday, September 3, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.
U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead
August 28 - September 1, 2023
The coming week will, for the most part, be another quiet summer week – in fact, it will be the last quiet summer week as we head into Labor Day weekend and Washington gets back to work on September 6th.
Until then, the only significant event on the regulatory calendar next week will be the FDIC’s Board of Directors Open meeting. They will consider five resolutions dealing with long-term debt requirements, new filings for institutions with $100 billion or more in total assets, and approval of new procedures for approving the resolution and sale of midsized and large banks.
We will pick up the calendar again next weekend, which we expect to be much fuller as the House of Representatives returns from the August recess, and all the regulators prepare for a hectic fall. Until then, enjoy this last quiet week of summer, and let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
Congress is out of session for the month of August. The Senate returns on September 5th, and the House of Representatives on September 11th.
US Regulatory Meetings & Events
Securities and Exchange Commission
August 31, 2023 – 2:00 p.m.: The Commission holds a closed-door meeting.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
August 29, 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The Board of Directors holds an open meeting. They will consider the following items:
Memorandum and resolution re: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Long-term Debt Requirements for Large Bank Holding Companies, Certain Intermediate Holding Companies of Foreign Banking Organizations, and Large Insured Depository Institutions.
Memorandum and resolution re: Resolution Plans Required for Insured Depository Institutions with $100 Billion or More in Total Assets; Informational Filings Required for Insured Depository Institutions with At Least $50 Billion, but Less Than $100 Billion in Total Assets.
Memorandum and resolution re: Publication of Proposed Guidance for Dodd-Frank Act Resolution Plan Submissions of Triennial Full Filers.
Memorandum and resolution re: Conditions to Certain Receivership Delegations of Authority and Procedures.
Memorandum and resolution re: Board Approval of Midsized and Large Failed Bank Sales.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
August 29, 2023 – 11:20-12:00 p.m.: Commissioner Kristen Johnson will participate in a panel discussion on DeFi Regulation moderated by Carole House of Terranet Ventures at the DeFi Retreat US being held at the William Vale, Brooklyn, New York.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Nothing of note is scheduled for the week.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
Recommended Weekend Reads
August 25 - 27, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful, and have a great, relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Africa
“Unlocking Africa’s Population Potential” OMFIF
Africa’s population is growing rapidly. The estimated annual growth rate was 2.5% in 2021. Given the trajectory, Africa’s population will double by 2050. Statistics show that the continent adds two children per mother for every child born in Asia. This dynamic demographic seems to favor Africa, with its youthful population. What does this mean for Africa’s long-term economic prosperity? And why should we be cautiously optimistic? The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Africa is positive, although weak (Figure 2). This arguably suggests that Africa could turn its growing population, if well harnessed, into an economic powerhouse in the coming decades.
Americas
“For North American Energy Security, Go Local: Examining the Role of Natural Gas and Mexico’s Energy Sector” Center for Strategic and International Studies
Natural gas is the predominant fuel source in Mexico. However, years of reliance on the United States for cheap, plentiful gas imports has prevented Mexico from capturing the potential of its domestic gas industry. This exposes Mexico to risks in the form of geopolitical distortions and unexpected disruptions in U.S. supply. It also exacerbates inequalities between northern and southern states as high energy prices in the latter serve as deterrents for businesses and investors. This brief breaks down the intersection of energy security, natural gas, nearshoring, and migration and outlines areas for Mexico to cooperate with the United States on bolstering its domestic energy sector.
“Not the X-Files: Mapping Public Reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Across America” Rand Corporation
In this report, RAND provides findings on U.S. locations where unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) reports are significantly more likely to occur and offers recommendations to increase awareness of the types of activities that might be mistaken for unexplained phenomena or that point to potential threats. The data were collected by the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), one of the nongovernmental entities that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has referenced in official documents for where to report unexplained phenomena. The analyses of these data should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any individual reports to NUFORC or of the accuracy of the database.
“How BRICS Expansion Will Impact South America” Americas Quarterly
On the occasion of the 15th BRICS Leaders Summit in Johannesburg this week, the current members invited Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc early next year. The expansion, the first since 2010, will transform the BRICS group and represent a geopolitical win for Beijing. But with presidential elections looming in Argentina, both Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich, the first- and second-placed finishers of the recent national primaries, have signaled skepticism about China, and Bullrich even announced her opposition to Argentina’s potential BRICS accession.
Indo-Pacific
“India is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia” Foreign Policy
As the intensifying strategic confrontation between the United States and China dominates many foreign-policy debates, another important competition is quietly playing out. The jostling between India and China for influence in South Asia—from the Himalayas to the islands off the subcontinent in the Indian Ocean—will likely prove crucial to the fate of Washington's strategy to keep the region “free and open” from Chinese coercion. And the good news, at least for now, is that New Delhi—an increasingly close U.S. partner—has been mostly successful in pushing back against Beijing's rising influence across the region.
Chart of the Week
China’s Provinces Carrying Massive Debt
The Financial Times drills into one of the biggest financial challenges in China today: The debt accumulated by its provinces – an estimated Rmb94 trillion($12 trillion). Much of it is hidden in opaque local government financing vehicles. As local governments struggle to manage the debt, they are also increasingly reluctant to sell off state-owned assets to repay the debt.
The Global Week Ahead
August 20 - 27, 2023
This week we will either see the growth of a new global economic bloc… or not. The BRICS leaders (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are meeting in South Africa this week – but only four of the five leaders will be in attendance as Russian President Vladimir Putin has an international warrant out for his arrest for committing war crimes against Ukraine. The question for the BRICS is whether to expand their membership. More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining – including Cuba and Iran -- and 23 have formally applied for membership. Brazil is resisting any significant expansion, while South Africa wants to expand.
Also likely to be discussed is creating a common currency to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the world's largest reserve currency (and for Russia, get around the sanctions) while expanding the power of the BRICS New Development Bank. India has made it clear they are not supportive of the idea and, as Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist who coined the name "BRICS," told the Financial Times last week, the idea of a common currency is "ridiculous" and that the bloc has "Never achieved anything since they first started meeting."
Also this week, the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle begins to kick into high gear as the first Republican presidential candidate debate is held in Milwaukee. Former President Donald Trump announced he would not participate. But eight (maybe nine if they can prove they qualified) other candidates will be on stage, and Fox News, who is hosting the debate, has promised to show video clips of Trump and ask the candidates to comment on what he said.
Meanwhile, Trump will be arraigned on Friday in Fulton County, Georgia, along with eighteen other defendants for allegedly trying to overturn the vote in his favor in Georgia. We understand this will be the first case where the former President will have a mug shot taken.
The big global economic radar screen event is the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Jackson Hole Symposium. This year's theme is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy." Fed Chair Jay Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Friday.
Also this week, China announces 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates, while we will see flash PMI prints from the U.S. and Eurozone.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, August 20, 2023
Global
Nothing Significant To Report (NSTR)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Ecuador is scheduled to hold Presidential and Legislative elections.
Guatemala holds run-off presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest, Hungary.
Sweden hosts World Water Week through August 24. They will discuss how to pursue innovative solutions for managing water in an increasingly unstable and resource-scarce world.
Today is National Day in Hungary, a national holiday. It is also known as State Foundation Day as well as St. Stephen’s Day, the nation’s first canonized saint. It goes back to 1000 A.D. when Pope Sylvester II ordains St. Stephen as King of Hungary.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Monday, August 21, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a closed meeting on the situation in the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will travel to Maui to assess the damage from the recent wildfires.
Economic Reports/Events –
Canada New Housing Price Index (July)
Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Cambodia’s Parliament convenes for the first time under prime minister Hun Manet after his father, Hun Sen handed power over to him earlier this month.
The United States and South Korea will launch the Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military drill in South Korea.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Loan Prime Rate (1Y & 5Y)
Taiwan Export Orders (July), Current Account (Q2), Inflation (July)
Thailand GDP (Q2)
New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic, other Balkan leaders, and EU representatives, including EU President Ursula von der Leyen, will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Athens, Greece.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany PPI (July)
Poland Employment (July), Industrial Production (July), PPI (July)
Hungary Unemployment (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
In Israel, US Joint Chief of Staff General Mark Milley is scheduled to visit over next week and meet Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Economic Reports/Events –
Qatar GDP (Q1), Total Credit Growth (July)
Israel Inflation Expectations (August), Manufacturing PMI (July)
Turkey Central Government Debt (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
Global
The BRICS Summit begins in South Africa. Only four of the five leaders will be in attendance as Russian President Vladimir Putin because of the international arrest warrant that is out there for his crimes against Ukraine. The leaders are expected to discuss the expansion of the group and the possible establishment of a common trading currency (which is unlikely to happen).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
US Redbook (August 19), Existing Home Sales (July), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)
Argentina Balance of Trade (July)
Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)
Paraguay PPI (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Thailand’s parliament will again meet to try to elect a new prime minister. The sole nominee up for consideration now is property tycoon Srettha Thavisin, but he is unlikely to secure enough votes.
Singapore holds Election nomination day, where presidential hopefuls submit the necessary paperwork needed to run.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)
Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)
Indonesia Current Account (Q2)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
EU climate chief Frans Timmermans will be nominated leader of a joint campaign between the Netherlands' Green Left and Labor parties that will run in the November Dutch general elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone Current Account (June)
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (July), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)
Ireland Consumer Confidence (August), Current Account (June), Wholesale Sales (July)
Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)
Poland Retail Sales (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Lebanon Inflation (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The United Nations will hold a climate finance workshop for members of the Economic Community of West African States in Bonn, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (June)
Wednesday, August 23, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Fox News hosts the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Economic Reports/Events –
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August), MBA Mortgage Purchase Index (August 18)
Canada Retail Sales (June)
El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)
Argentina Economic Activity (June)
Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
India’s Chandrayaan lunar lander is expected to touch down on the Moon’s South Pole.
The United States, Japan, and Australia will conduct joint naval drills in the South China Sea.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/Composite PMI (August)
South Korea Business Confidence (August)
Singapore CPI (July), Inflation (July)
Taiwan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI (August)
New Zealand Retail Sales (Q2)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (August), HCOB Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)
Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Kosovo Balance of Trade (July)
Russia Industrial Production (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)
Israel Manufacturing Production (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Zimbabwe holds presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Inflation (July)
Thursday, August 23, 2023
Global
The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, begins.
G20 Trade and Investment Ministers meet in Jaipur, India.
the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) releases trade statistics for the second quarter of the year.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
US Building Permits (July), Durable Goods Orders (July), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July), Initial Jobless Claims (August 19), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)
Canada Wholesale Sales (July)
Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Mid-month Inflation (August)
Argentina Leading Indicator (July), Retail Sales (June)
Peru Current Account (Q2)
Chile PPI (July)
Colombia Business Confidence (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPI (July)
Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Indonesia Property Price Index (Q2)
Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Indonesia Loan Growth (July), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Ukraine celebrates its 32nd Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
France Business Confidence (August), Business Climate Indicator (August)
UK CBI Distributive Trades (August), Cfk Consumer Confidence (August)
Hungary Gross Wage (June)
Poland Unemployment (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (June)
Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Israel Composite Economic Index (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Friday, August 25, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Former President Donald Trump and 18 other individuals must turn themselves into the Fulton County Court (Georgia) to be processed following their arraignment for multiple criminal charges.
Today is Uruguay Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August), Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations (August)
Canada Manufacturing Sales (July), Budget Balance (June)
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August), Current Account (July), FDI (June), IPCA CIP (August)
Mexico GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan CPI (August)
India FX Reserves (August 18), FDI (June)
Singapore Industrial Production (July)
Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July) New Car Sales (July)
Philippines Budget Balance (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Dmitry Medvedev, the chair of Russia's ruling United Russia party, will meet with party candidates for the posts of regional heads of the Russian Federation.
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the annual Economic Policy Symposium "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy" organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole at 1:00 p.m. CT.
Germany GDP (Q2), Ifo Business Climate (August), Ifo Current Conditions (August), Ifo Expectations (August)
France Consumer Confidence (August), Unemployment (July)
Spain PPI (July)
Hungary Unemployment (July)
Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2)
Bosnia and Herzegovina Inflation (July), PPI (July), Industrial Production (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Business Confidence (August), Capacity Utilization (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Nigeria GDP (Q2)
Saturday, August 26, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Japan will launch a rocket carrying a Japanese lunar lander from Tanegashima Space Centre. The mission is designed to show that lighter and more inexpensive missions to space can be achieved.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Gabon holds presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Sunday, August 27, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
China Industrial Profits (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.
U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead
August 21 - 25, 2023
This coming week will be the last slow week of August in Washington, D.C. The week’s big event will be the kick-off of the annual Jackson Hole Central Bank Conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed. While the meetings are primarily about broad macroeconomic issues, financial services regulation will surely come up frequently, and we will be monitoring that closely.
The only other event of note scheduled this week is at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Commission is holding an open meeting on whether to adopt a rule to narrow an exemption from the requirement that any Commission-registered broker-deal become a member of a national securities association if it trades securities elsewhere.
Looking back to last week’s big news event, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chair Marty Gruenberg’s gave a speech at the Brooking Institution revealing his intention to push for banks with as low as $50 billion in assets to be required to have the same resolution planning rules as larger banks along with the higher capital standards for banks with $100 billion or more. The American Bankers Association, the Bank Policy Institute, and other bank lobbying organizations fired back at Gruenberg, making clear they intend to fight hard against the measure. Look to the House Financial Services Committee to hold hearings in late September or early October exploring what the FDIC is trying to accomplish and likely push back pretty firmly against Gruenberg’s efforts.
Here is what else we are tracking in the coming week:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
Congress is out of session for the month of August. The Senate returns on September 5th, and the House of Representatives on September 11th.
US Regulatory Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board
August 22, 2023, 1:30 – 3:00 p.m. CT: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s “FedListens” event entitled “Joining the Labor Force After Covid: A Discussion of Youth Employment.” The event will be held virtually.
Friday, August 25, 2023, 10:05 a.m. CT: Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give an opening speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s 2023 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Moran, Wyoming. You can watch the speech HERE live.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Wednesday, August 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an Open Meeting. The Commission will consider whether to adopt rule amendments to narrow an exemption from the requirement under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 that any Commission-registered broker-dealer become a member of a national securities association if it affects securities transactions elsewhere than an exchange where it is a member.
Thursday, August 24, 2023, 2:00 p.m.: Closed meeting.
U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission
Friday, August 25, 2023, 2:00 – 2:30 p.m. EST: CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will give a closing address at the Global Research Alliance for Sustainable Finance and Investments Sixth Annual Conference at the Yale School of Management in New Haven, CT.
Friday, August 25, 2023, 9:00 a.m. EST: The CFTC holds a closed-door meeting on enforcement matters.
Think Tank Events
No events of note are scheduled in the coming week.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
August 13 - 20, 2023
It seems the week ahead is going to be the last quiet week of the Summer in the North Hemisphere. The big political events of the week will be President Biden hosting a summit at Camp David with the Prime Ministers of South Korea and Japan to discuss China policy, how to handle an increasingly bellicose North Korea, and broader security in the Indo-Pacific.
Also, this coming week, it is expected that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a fourth time, now for alleged election interference in the state of Georgia.
We will be watching a number of elections this week. Argentina holds presidential primaries today (Sunday), and later in the week, elections for president in Ecuador are expected to be held – although the nation is tense following the assassination last week of a leading candidate, Fernando Villaviencio. Also, this week, Guatemala holds an election, too.
We would note that the week after this one, the BRICS Summit will be held in South Africa (August 22-24), and both leaders around the world and markets will be watching closely what comes out of it. A large number of countries want to join – including Iran and other rogue states – and there is some resistance to the idea from several members, including Brazil. Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend virtually as South Africa, a signatory to the International Criminal Court – would be required to arrest him if he showed up in person for war crime charges.
On the global economic radar screen, we will be watching China as retail sales and industrial output will be reported on Tuesday. Both will give markets a greater sense of how much the country has fallen in deflation.
We get Federal Reserve meeting minutes this week, hopefully giving markets insights into what the Fed is thinking about inflation and whether we are finally done with interest rate hikes.
And finally, Japan releases Q2 GDP figures, as does the EU. Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, August 13, 2023
Global
Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Argentina holds presidential primary elections. The general elections are on October 22.
The Iowa State Fair began this past Thursday (August 10) and goes through August 20. This weekend and through the coming week, most Republican presidential candidates will troupe through as the Fair has become a “Must Do” for presidential candidates to campaign. If you go, don’t forget to have a corndog.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Cambodia. The visit comes as Cambodia is seeing a change-over in power as long-time Prime Minister Hun Sen is stepping down after 38 years in power. His son, Hun Manet, is scheduled to replace him on August 22.
Taiwan’s Vice President, Lai Ching-te, will travel to Paraguay for the inauguration of incoming President Santiago Peña Palacios. Lai will transit through the United States on the way to the event, stopping in New York on the way there and San Francisco on the way back. Beijing has strongly objected to the US allowing her to travel through the US.
China will be conducting military drills in the East China Sea through August 14.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Saudi Arabia will host an international Islamic leaders conference in Mecca through Aug. 14. The meeting will bring together more than 150 religious leaders and muftis from 85 countries and will seek to promote moderation, according to the Saudi State News Agency.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The U.S. Global Diversity Export Initiative Business Mission to Africa takes place in South Africa, Ghana, and Nigeria through August 15th.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Monday, August 14, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The U.S. Congress remains out of session and will return to work in September (the House returns September 11, and the Senate returns September 5).
Economic Reports/Events –
US Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)
Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Colombia Balance of Trade (June), Industrial Production (June), Retail Sales (June)
Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
India Inflation (July), WPI Inflation (July), WPI Food Index (July), WPI Fuel (July), WPI Manufacturing (July)
New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July), Services NZ PSI (July), visitor Arrivals (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Today is the expected start of the trial of Ksenia Fadeyeva, an ally of political prisoner Alexei Navalny, in a Russian court in the city of Tomsk. Fadeyeva is the former Tomsk Municipal Deputy, and she was detained in 2021 for “extremism.” She previously headed Navalny’s Tomsk office until it was shuttered.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany Wholesale Prices (July)
Poland Inflation (July)
Ireland Construction PMI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel Unemployment (July)
Turkey Auto Production (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The 19th session of the United Nation’s African Ministerial Conference on the Environment is held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Bloomberg hosts a week-long conference in Johannesburg on South Africa’s economic outlook in advance of the BRICS Summit being held the following week.
Economic Reports/Events –
Rwanda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Tuesday, August 15, 2023
Global
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Global Dairy Price Trade Price Index is released.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Santiago Peña Palcios will be inaugurated as the new President of Paraguay. Taiwanese Vice President William Lai will be in attendance.
Today is the anniversary of the 2021 Taliban takeover of Kabul as U.S. military forces withdrew.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Retail Sales (July), Import Prices (July), Exports Prices (July), Redbook (August 12), Business Inventories (June), NAHB Housing Market Index (August), Retail Inventories (June), Net Long-term TIC Flows (June), Overall Net Capital Flows (June)
Canada Inflation (July), CPI (July), Manufacturing Sales (June), New Motor Vehicles Sales (June)
Colombia GDP (Q2), Imports/Balance of Trade (June)
Argentina Inflation (July)
Peru GDP (June)
Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Energy Ministers’ Meeting takes place in Seattle, Washington.
South Korea celebrates Liberation Day – otherwise known as “Gwangbokjeol” – a national holiday. It marks the day the Republic of Korea was officially established and celebrates the liberation from Japanese occupation. Interestingly, North Korea also celebrates this day, too.
Today is Independence Day in India, celebrating the day when Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru lifted the Indian flag above the Lahori Gate in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will give a national speech marking the occasion, and a bipartisan delegation of U.S. members of Congress will be in attendance.
The Cambodian Constitutional Court rules on the case challenging parliament's refusal to allow a second vote for Pita Limjaroenrat to become prime minister.
Economic Reports/Events –
China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (July)
India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Japan GDP (Q2), Capacity Utilization (June), Industrial Production (June)
Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes, Wage Price Index (Q2)
Thailand GDP (Q2)
Philippines Cash Remittances (June)
Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Lithuania will close two of its six current border crossing checkpoints with Belarus.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at the opening of the Army 2023 military forum in Moscow.
Liechtenstein celebrates National Day, a public holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August), ZEW Current Conditions (August)
UK Unemployment (June), Labor Productivity (Q2)
Ireland Balance of Trade (June)
Serbia Building Permits (June)
Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)
Hungary Construction Output (June), Industrial Production (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia Inflation (July), Wholesale Prices (July)
Turkey Budget Balance (July)
Qatar Inflation (July)
Israel M1 Money Supply (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Unemployment (Q2)
Nigeria Food Inflation (July), Inflation (July)
Botswana Inflation (July)
Uganda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday, August 16, 2023
Global
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) will launch its Economic Development in Africa Report 2023.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The Dominican Republic celebrates Restoration Day, a public holiday. It celebrates when the country gained independence from Haiti in 1844.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Federal Reserve FMOC Meeting Minutes, MBA Mortgage Market Index (August 11), Building Permits (July), Housing Starts (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July)
Canada Wholesale Sales (June), Housing Starts (July)
Peru Unemployment (July)
Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo will deliver a speech to parliament to commemorate the 78th anniversary of the country’s independence. He is expected to use the speech to announce next year’s budget, including significant infrastructure investment and education spending proposals.
Economic Reports/Events –
China House Price Index (July)
Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)
Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)
New Zealand Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
Indonesia Retail Sales (June)
Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone GDP (Q2), Industrial Production (June), Employment (Q2), Industrial Production (June)
UK Inflation (July), PPI (July), Retail Price Index (July)
Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)
Poland Industrial Production (June), Inflation (July)
Hungary GDP (Q2)
Bulgaria GDP (Q2), Inflation (July)
Serbia Current Account (June)
Russia PPI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Egypt Unemployment (Q2)
Israel GDP (Q2)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Retail Sales (June), SACCI Business Confidence (June)
Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, August 17, 2023
Global
The G20 Health Ministers’ Working Group meets in Gandhinagar, India.
The 1st World Health Organization’s (WHO) Traditional Medicine Global Summit takes place in Gandhinagar, India.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
US Initial Jobless Claims (August 12), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (August), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (August), Philadelphia Fed Employment (August), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (August), CB Leading Index (July)
El Salvador Inflation (August)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Australia’s Labor Party will hold its national conference through August 20th. Labor holds the conference every three years, and is the first they have held since taking power in 2022. Observers are watching to see if the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK is brought up and debated, as some members of the party are opposed to Australia buying nuclear submarines from the UK and the US.
Indonesia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday marking when they declared independence from the Netherlands in 1945.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (July), Machinery Orders (June), Tertiary Industry Index (June)
Singapore Exports (July), Balance of Trade (July)
Australia Unemployment (July)
New Zealand PPI (Q2)
Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Hong Kong Unemployment (July)
Sri Lanka PPI (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Denmark's PM Mette Frederiksen in Berlin.
The new Spanish parliament will convene for the first time following the general elections. No new leader has been chosen.
Economic Reports/Events –
UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)
Poland GDP (Q2)
Spain Balance of Trade (June)
Bulgaria Current Account (June)
Hungary CPI (July), Inflation (July)
Belarus GDP (July), Industrial Production (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey FX Reserves (August 11)
Israel Inflation Expectations (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Southern African heads of state attend a Southern African Development Community Summit (SADC) in Luanda, Angola. The theme of the meeting is “Human and financial capital: the key drivers for sustainable industrialization of the SADC Region.”
Gabon celebrates Independence Day, marking when the country became independent from France in 1960.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Building Permits (June)
Friday, August 18, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Biden will host the first trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea at Camp David. The Prime Ministers of both countries will attend. Issues they are expected to discuss are the situation in the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear program and ramped-up threats, and dealing with China and the ongoing tensions between Beijing and Taiwan.
Economic Reports/Events –
Canada PPI (July), Raw Materials (July)
Mexico Retail Sales (June)
Chile GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2),
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
China FDI (July)
Japan Inflation (July)
India FX Reserves (August 11)
Taiwan GDP (Q2)
Indonesia Current Account (Q2)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer in Salzburg, Austria.
In Moscow, there will be a hearing in the trial of NGO Memorial's Oleg Orlov, a leading Russian human rights advocate, who is accused of 'discrediting' the Russian army.
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB Board Member Philip Lane speaks on the ECB Podcast “Summer School” on the role of banks in fighting inflation.
Eurozone Inflation (July), Balance of Trade (June), Construction Output (June), CPI (July)
UK Retail Sales (July)
Switzerland Industrial Production (Q2)
Poland Employment Growth (July), Industrial Production (July), PPI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Sien Loong is expected to give a speech outlining his economic and social agenda. Lee has been grappling with how to handle the rising cost of living and housing prices.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Sunday, August 20, 2023
Global
NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Ecuador is scheduled to hold Presidential and Legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Sweden hosts World Water Week through August 24. They will discuss how to pursue innovative solutions for managing water in an increasingly unstable and resource-scarce world.
Today is National Day in Hungary, a national holiday. It is also known as State Foundation Day as well as St. Stephen’s Day, the nation’s first canonized saint. It goes back to 1000 A.D. when Pope Sylvester II ordains St. Stephen as King of Hungary.
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
NSTR
Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.
U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead
August 14 - 18, 2023
First, a quick note on a slight change to our Regulatory Week Ahead. Starting with this issue, we will include coverage of the two U.S. antitrust enforcers – the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division. With DoJ’s Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter’s recent speech at the Brookings Institution on “Promoting Competition in Banking,” it is clear two new regulators have moved into the financial regulatory space.
Now back to our usual previewing of the coming week: It may still be the dog days of summer in Washington, but there is one big event next week. FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will give a speech at the Brookings Institution on “lessons learned” from the resolution of regional banks – a direct reference to the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the closing of Commonwealth Bank in New York. Banks will watch his speech closely for greater insight into FDIC policy – and perhaps comments about the banking regulators’ newly proposed capital requirements. You can watch it online (link below).
Otherwise, there are no public speeches by senior regulators and no open meetings or rule proposals. It is all quiet. But if you have any questions, please let us know. We hope you are enjoying your August!
U.S. Congressional Hearings
Congress is out of session for the month of August. The Senate returns on September 5th, and the House of Representatives on September 11th.
US Regulatory Meetings & Events
Monday, August 14, 2023 – 2:00 – 3:00 p.m.: FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg speaks at the Brookings Institution on “The resolution of large regional banks and lessons learned.” You can watch the speech online by clicking HERE.
Thursday, August 17, 2023 – 2:30 p.m.: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will hold a closed meeting.
Friday, August 18, 2023 – 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.: The FDIC and Georgia Coalition of Black Chambers Host the Georgia Access to Capital Summit: Building an Inclusive Business Landscape for Under-Resourced Small Businesses at the Bibb County Professional Learning Center, Macon, Georgia
Think Tank Events
Nothing of note is scheduled at this point for next week.
Please let us know if you have any questions.
Subscribe to our newsletter.
Sign up with your email address to receive news and updates.