Recommended Weekend Reads

August 11 - 13, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful,  and have a great, relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list or sign up via the website.

Global Political Economy 

• “Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition”   Lawfare

  The U.S. should use an AI-competitive world as an opportunity to lead in developing an open, rule-bound, and balanced global AI ecosystem. For its part, it is in the U.S.’s national interest to encourage global AI competition and use it as a catalyst for creating a global AI ecosystem that is more open, rule-bound, and balanced than it would be in an AI vassal future.

Indo Pacific 

• “Support Provided by the People’s Republic of China to Russia”  Report from Office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence

  The US DNI issued this report in late July, detailing how China “is pursuing a variety of economic mechanisms for Russia that mitigate both the impact of Western sanctions and export controls.  The PRC has increased its importation of Russian energy exports, including oil and gas supplies rerouted from Europe.”  The report goes on to detail Beijing’s increased use of its current and its financial infrastructure with Russia.

• “The End of China’s Economic Miracle”  Adam Posen/Foreign Affairs Magazine

  Posen, the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former voting member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), points out that the first quarter of 2020, which saw the onset of COVID, was a point of no return for Chinese economic behavior, which began shifting in 2015, when the state extended its control: since then, bank deposits as a share of GDP have risen by an enormous 50 percent and are staying at that high level. Private-sector consumption of durable goods is down by around a third versus early 2015, continuing to decline since reopening rather than reflecting pent-up demand. Private investment is even weaker, down by a historic two-thirds since the first quarter of 2015, including a decrease of 25 percent since the pandemic started. And both these key forms of private-sector investment continue to trend still further downward.  

Russia

• “A War of Attrition: Assessing the Impact of Equipment Shortages on Russian Military Operations in Ukraine”   Center for Strategic and International Studies

• This report examines the impact of Russia’s growing military equipment and ammunition shortages on the Kremlin’s ability to prosecute the war in Ukraine and to carry out operations in other areas. In doing so, it focuses on the availability of artillery ammunition, as well as five weapons categories of central importance for Russia’s ability to sustain operations: tanks, artillery, uncrewed aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, and long-range precision strike weapons. 

Americas 

• “Meet the Candidates: Argentina”   Americas Quarterly

  Argentines head the polls on Sunday, August 13th, to vote in presidential primaries.  With inflation raging at historic rates, the stakes are high as the ruling Peronist Unión por la Patria coalition is struggling to retain power and right the nation’s abysmal economic conditions.

• “Latin America could become this century’s commodity superpower”   The Economist

  Latin America is no stranger to supplying the world with raw materials, but it could be on the verge of a boom. Three forces are pushing the region to become this century’s commodity superpower. The green transition is increasing the demand for metals and minerals that Latin America has in large supply, as well as the renewable energy to process them. The region already supplies more than a third of the world’s copper, used in wiring and wind turbines, and half of its silver, a component of solar panels.

• “What Should College Athletes Be Paid?  Market Structure and the NCAA”  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  This interesting Teachers Guide written by the St. Louis Fed asks: What should college athletes be paid? The debate over the compensation for student-athletes in the US is not new, but recent policy changes and court cases have once again brought the issue to the forefront. This issue looks at how the market structure underlying college athletics has taken this debate all the way to the Supreme Court. 

Charts of the Week 

The U.S. Pandemic Geographic Income Shift  

There has been a lot of talk about the great migration of 2020-2021 because of the Pandemic.  But how did that break down in terms of income shifts?  Axios, looking at a new analysis of tax data from the Economic Innovation Group, shows a surge in incoming that arrived in many rural and exurban cities as well as popular vacation spots.  Big cities were, as we all know, the big losers.  And of those who left, disproportionately, it was those with higher incomes. 

Axios reports that San Francisco’s outbound migration caused a 20 percent drop in adjusted gross income from 2020 to 2021.  In Manhattan, it dropped 13 percent, and in Boston, 11 percent – and overwhelmingly, it was high earners who left.  San Francisco’s leavers had an average taxable income of $240,000. 

The biggest winners in terms of wealth moving in?  Walton County, Florida, in the Florida panhandle, saw a 51.6 percent increase in income per person.  Other places that were big winners; Naples, Florida; Collier County, Florida; and Pitkin County (Aspen), Colorado – all up by 31 percent or more.

Recession or Not? Where Do the Banks Stand? 

As markets debate whether we are headed for a soft economic landing or a recession of some sort is already built in, it is always interesting to see where the major Wall Street investment banks stand.  While it seems to us that overall sentiment is leaning toward no recession, Bloomberg this week offered a scorecard, and surprisingly, most of the big banks are still in the camp a recession is coming. 

Fulcrum Macro’s Global & U.S. Summer Overview

We are happy to share our latest macro overview of key geopolitical issues along with an update on the Washington agenda and upcoming U.S. Elections. Please let us know if you have any questions - always happy to help!

The Global Week Ahead

August 6 - 13, 2023

This week, we are watching the meeting in Saudi Arabia Sunday of senior diplomats from 30 nations – including China – seeking to craft a 10-point peace plan proposal to end the war in Ukraine.  While Russia was excluded from the meeting, China’s eagerness to attend and play a critical role was the big news.  China is increasingly concerned about Russian and Ukrainian wheat and grain access, which is at risk due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Last week, Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain storage facilities destroyed an estimated 40 thousand tons of grain – mostly destined for African nations, China, and Israel –  driving up global grain prices by more than 5 percent.

To that point, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed late last week to travel to Turkey sometime this week (date not set yet) for meetings with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the possibility of restoring the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Reports suggest Russia is now finding it harder and harder to sell its grain and other agricultural products and may want to return to the agreement. 

We are closely monitoring other key geopolitical events this week, including a likely no-confidence vote in the Indian Parliament for Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his handling of ethnic clashes on the Myanmar border.  We expect he will easily survive the vote.  And in Pakistan, as former Prime Minister Imran Kahn was arrested late last week, current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to dissolve Parliament on Wednesday and call for snap elections within the next 90 days.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.  He is expected to discuss the Ukraine War and urge Iran to end its weapons sales (especially drones) to Russia.  Iran is not likely to agree to step back, but it adds new pressure on Tehran to reconsider its support for Moscow.

In Latin America, Argentina holds a presidential primary vote on Sunday before the general elections in October.  The country is suffering from extraordinary inflation - 116 percent -- and voters are getting restless for a switch in political leadership.

On the economic radar screen this week, markets are keenly watching both US inflation numbers and China’s inflation figures and export/import numbers.  The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey is released on Tuesday in Europe, and the UK reports GDP figures on Friday.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Global

• Saudi Arabia hosts a meeting of high-level officials from 30 states – including China – to discuss how to craft a peace proposal to end the Ukraine War.  This meeting continues talks that began in June in Copenhagen, Denmark, aimed at unifying the West's and the Global South's positions regarding the broad framework for any future negotiations. Russia was not invited.   A third round of discussions is likely to be held in New Delhi in September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, marking when the country declared its independence from Spain in 1825.

• Jamaica celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it gained independence from the UK.

• El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, celebrating the Divine Savior for whom the country is named.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.  He is expected to discuss the Ukraine War and urge Iran to stop selling weapons to Russia. 

• APEC holds a high-level meeting on Health and the Economy in Seattle, Washington.

• Today is the78th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Tourist Arrivals (July)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Economic Community of West African States' deadline for the military junta in Niger to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Monday, August 7, 2023 

Global

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to travel to Turkey this week for meetings with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the possible resumption of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  They have not set a formal date yet.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Civic Day in Canada, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speak at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in Georgia.

• US Consumer Credit Change (June), Used Car Prices (July)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

• Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

• Brazil Car Production (July), BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso will visit Taiwan for the first time since 2010 and meet with President Tsai Ing-wen.

• Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen is expected to formally endorse his son, Hun Manet, as the new prime minister, officially handing over power after 38 years.  His party won 96 percent of the seats after the main opposition parties were barred from fielding candidates.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, FX Reserves (July), Leading Economic Index (June), Coincident Index (June)

• Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)

• Indonesia GDP (Q2),  FX Reserves (July)

• Thailand Inflation (July)

• Philippines FX Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Huw Pill holds a virtual Q&A on the cost of living and current economic conditions.

• Germany Industrial Production (June)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (July), BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

• France FX Reserves (July)

• Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

• Switzerland FX Reserves (July)

• Poland FX Reserves (July)

• Ukraine FX Reserves (July)

• North Macedonia Inflation (July)

• Russia FX Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

• Qatar GDP (Q1)

• Israel FX Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Côte d’Ivoire celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day the country won its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa FX Reserves (July)

Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) Summit is held through August 9 in Belem, Brazil. Member states, including Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela, the US, and France, will attend.  The Focus of the talks will be how to attract investments, combat deforestation, protect Indigenous peoples, and encourage sustainable development in the face of climate change.  Belim is where the COP30 Summit will be held in 2025.

• Mississippi holds gubernatorial primary elections.  The general election will be held on November 7, 2023, and runoff (if necessary) on November 28.

• Ohio holds a ballot initiative that would require a 60 percent vote on future state constitutional amendments as well as expand the signature cure period.   

Economic Reports/Events –

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President and current Federal Open Market Committee member Patrick Harker speaks at the Philadelphia Business Journal’s State of the Economy event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (July), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Total Household Debt (Q2), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (August), Wholesale Inventories (June)

• Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

• Chile Inflation (July)

• Costa Rica Inflation (July)

• Colombia Inflation (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a no-confidence vote in the Parliament over ethnic violence in the northeastern state of Manipur.  It is unlikely to succeed.  Manipur is on the border with Myanmar and has been struggling with refugee challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), FX Reserves (July)

• Japan Household Spending (June), Current Account (June), Bank Lending (July), Eco Watchers Survey (July)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (August), NAB Business Confidence (July), Building Permits (June)

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), Inflation (July)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)

• Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• The ECB releases their Consumer Expectations Survey

• Germany Inflation (July), CPI (July)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Hungary Inflation (July), Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt FX Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Tanzania Inflation (July) 

Wednesday, August 9, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA Mortgage Index (August 4)

• Canada Building Permits (June)

• Brazil Retail Sales (June)

• Mexico Inflation (July)

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

• Argentina Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Additional Japanese trade restrictions on Russia, including on automobiles and other goods, will enter into force.

• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is likely to dissolve parliament and call for new elections within 90 days.

• The Bank of Indonesia will host a one-day investment forum in Tokyo, presenting nine carbon neutrality-related projects open for investment.  This is the first time the central bank has hosted such an event in Japan. 

• Today is the 78th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Nagasaki.

• Singapore celebrates National Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation (July), PPI (July)

• Japan Machine Tool Orders (July)

• South Korea Unemployment (July)

• Philippines Unemployment (July)

• New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK RICS House Price Balance (July)

• Italy Industrial Production (June)

• Hungary  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Balance of Trade (June), Budget Balance (July)

• Ukraine Inflation (July)

• Russia Inflation (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Business Confidence (July), Budget Balance (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kenya’s Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Global

• OPEC Monthly Report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• A  Georgia judge in Atlanta will hear arguments on former President Donald Trump's bid to block an investigation of his alleged attempts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.

• Ecuador celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will offer welcoming remarks at the Fed Communities event via webinar.

• US Inflation (July), CPI (July), Unemployment (August 4), Monthly Budget Statement (July)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Paraguay Inflation (July)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia hosts the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan PPI (July)

• India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

• Philippines GDP (Q2)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The German states of Bayern and Hessen hold local parliamentary elections.

• The launch window for Virgin Galactic’s Galactic 02 opens.  It is the company’s second commercial space flight and the first to take private astronauts.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Italy Inflation (July), CPI (July)

• Ireland Inflation (July)

• Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Bulgaria Balance of Trade (June), Construction & Industrial Outputs (June), Retail Sales (June)

• North Macedonia PPI (June)

• Belarus Inflation (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Inflation (July)

• Turkey Industrial Production (June), Unemployment (June), FX Reserves (August 4)

• Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production (June), Mining Production (June), Manufacturing Production (June)

• Namibia Inflation (July)

• Rwanda Inflation (July)

• Mozambique Inflation (July)

Friday, August 11, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PPI (July), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August), Michigan Current Conditions (August), Michigan Inflation Expectations (August), WASDE Report

• Brazil Inflation (July), IBC-Br Economic Activity (June), Business Confidence (August)

• Mexico Industrial Production (June)

• Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

• El Salvador PPI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The annual Malabar naval exercise — involving the United States, Japan, India, and Australia — will commence and last through August 22 off of Australia's east coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India Industrial Production (June), Manufacturing Production (June),  Bank Loan Growth (July 28)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July), Food Inflation (July)

• Singapore GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q2)

• Thailand FX Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Current Account (June)

• France Unemployment (Q2), Inflation (July)

• UK GDP (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), Manufacturing Production (June), Goods Trade Balance (June), Construction Orders (Q2), Construction Output (June), Industrial Production (June), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

• Italy Balance of Trade (June)

• Spain Inflation (July), CPI (July)

• Poland Balance of Trade (June), Current Account (June)

• Serbia Inflation (July)

• Kosovo Inflation (July)

• Russia GDP (Q2), Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Current Account (June), Retail Sales (June)

• Jordan Inflation (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Chad celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Saturday, August 12, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Six states in Malaysia hold elections.  More than 10 million people will likely vote in Keday, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan.   A total of 572 candidates are running for 245 state-level seats. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China New Yuan Loans (July), Outstanding Loan Growth (July), total Social Financing (July), M2 Money Supply (July), Vehicle Sales (July)

• Indonesia Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia celebrates Air Force Day.

• Today in the UK is “the Glorious Twelfth” – the opening of grouse hunting season.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

• Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Sunday, August 13, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds presidential primary elections.  The general elections are on October 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwan’s Vice President, Lai Ching-te, will travel to Paraguay for the inauguration of incoming President Santiago Peña Palacios.  Lai will transit through the United States on the way to the event, stopping in New York on the way there and San Francisco on the way back.  Beijing has strongly objected to the US allowing her to travel through the US.[

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

August 7 - 11, 2023

It is truly the dog days of summer in Washington.  As we noted last week, Congress is out of session until September, Washington’s battalions of lawyers and lobbyists have headed for the beach, and there is not much happening this coming week on the regulatory agenda.   Please let us know if you have any questions.  I hope you are enjoying your August!

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

• Both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are out of session for the month of August.  No hearings are scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

• Monday, August 8, 2023: The U.s. Court of Appeals for the Firth Circuit will hear arguments Monday in a case over the SEC’s 2022 proxy advisory firm regulations. The hearing will be the biggest judicial test yet of SEC authority in removing 2020 curbs on firms that advise large funds voting on ESG proposals and other matters at annual shareholder meetings.

• Wednesday & Thursday, August 9 & 10, 2023: The Securities and Exchange Commission holds closed meetings on both days.

Think Tank Events 

• Tuesday, 10:00 a.m., August 8, 2023 - The Bipartisan Policy Center hosts their Leaders Speakers Series with Ginnie Mae President Alanna McCargo.  She will be speaking on “Opportunities to Expand Homeownership Opportunities for Underserved People and Communities”

• Wednesday, 9:00 a.m., August 9, 2023: The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a panel discussion on “Can supervisory reform prevent repeat bank failures in the US?” 

Recommended Weekend Reads

August 4 - 6, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful,  and have a great, relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Global Political Economy

• “Economists Reconsider Industrial Policy”   Project Syndicate

  Three noted international economists -Dani Rodrik, Réka Juhász, and Nathan Lane – take a fresh look at the performance of industrial policies.  They note that in the past, economists often focus on indicators such as import tariffs, capturing only limited dimensions of such measures and conflating their objectives with others.  A new generation of research efforts takes a more productive approach – and reaches very different conclusions.

• “The Trade-Offs of Counterterrorism Policies”  Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Abstract: This article provides a modern overview of counterterrorism tools and their trade-offs for curbing terrorist attacks and their consequences. Defensive and proactive countermeasures constitute two main classes of counterterror tools deployed by targeted governments. The primary drawback of defensive actions, which make terrorist attacks more costly and less apt to succeed, is attack transference that shifts the mode, venue, or target of attacks to those less protected. In contrast, offensive, proactive measures, which confront the terrorists directly, may result in backlash as terrorist sympathizers, the public, and state sponsors augment their terrorist support resulting in more recruitment and attacks. Other essential trade-offs are identified and discussed. Additionally, we formulate a two-stage canonical game-theoretic model involving a targeted government and a terrorist group adversary. This model accounts for defensive and proactive policies but also myriad scenarios. As such, it serves as a foundation to explain modern counterterrorism literature, as illustrated by a discussion of iconic contributions to the study of counterterrorism.

Indo Pacific 

• “Why China’s Export Controls on Germanium and Gallium May Not Be Effective”  Stimson Center

  In 2010, China adopted a series of export controls on rare earth exports to Japan, the United States, and the European Union. Those export controls led to massive smuggling and pushed Japan and the United States to diversify their rare earth supply chains, cutting at least 30% of China’s market share of the global supply of rare earths from 2010 to 2021. China’s recent export controls on gallium and germanium are now increasing calls in more countries for a similar diversification of supply chains of critical materials away from China. While it can take years to diversify supply chains, and the cost of doing so is often prohibitive, the new controls will force countries to continue to advance policies that reduce their dependence on China for critical materials.

•   “Podcast: Japan and NATO in 2023”  International Institute for International Affairs

  The Podcast of IISS experts unpacks the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and the developments around Japan-NATO cooperation (as NATO has opened an office in Tokyo and is likely to open more offices in the Indo-Pacific), along with Japan’s responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine.  

• “Why is Italy Withdrawing From China’s Belt and Road Initiative?”  Council on Foreign Relations

  In 2019, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Rome, Italy shocked the United States and Europe by becoming the first Group of Seven (G7) country to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  But this past week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni indicated joining the BRI was a “big mistake,” and Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetta called Italy’s decision to join the BRI an “improvised and atrocious act.”  So why is Italy pulling out now?

Russia

• “Putin and Prigozhin: It’s Complicated”  Belfer Center for International Affairs, Harvard University

  In late June, Yevgheny Prigozhin led a 36-hour mutiny against President Vladimir Putin’s military leadership, driving his Wagner Forces within 200 kilometers of Moscow.  After quickly backing down, Prigozhin announced he was going into exile in Belarus, and the Wagner Forces were going to be disbanded and absorbed into the Russian Army.  Neither happened.  Prigozhin appeared in Moscow last week at the Russia-Africa Leaders’ Summit, shaking hands with various African leaders.  And the Wagner Group apparently has not been disbanded.  So what is going on?  It’s complicated.

Africa 

• “Kenya’s debt struggles go far deeper than Chinese loans”  Chatham House

  Despite recent claims of a Chinese state-linked hacking team carrying out systematic cyber-attacks on Kenyan government institutions being denounced by Kenya’s Ministry of Interior as ‘sponsored propaganda’, Kenya’s debt burden to China is under scrutiny once again as the alleged attacks were reportedly driven by a desire to assess the status of repayments.  Chinese loans account for roughly 64 percent of Kenya’s current stock of bilateral external debt.  And the question being asked now is did the Kenyan government post the strategic Mombasa Port as collateral for these loans, feeding accusations of China indulging in ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ both in Kenya and across the continent.

• “From Russia, with little to show for it”   Institute for Security Studies

  Russian President Vladimir Putin was hoping for a record turnout of African leaders at the second Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg last week to show the West he wasn’t isolated after all. He didn’t quite pull that off. Only 17 African heads of state attended – far fewer than the 43 at the 2019 Sochi summit.  So if Putin got some recognition, what did Africa get? Not much, judging by the joint declaration, which looks as though it was written almost exclusively by the Kremlin. It is full of statements implicitly harnessing Africa in support of Moscow’s posture against Western sanctions imposed on it for invading Ukraine.

Chart of the Week 

Looking at U.S. Sanctions in 2022

The Center for a New American Security just published a new report looking at the massive increase of individuals and entities placed under sanctions.  In 2022, 2,275 persons were added to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) list.  The below chart shows how Russian persons and entities were the primary targets of the sanctions:

The Global Week Ahead

July 30 - August 6, 2023

Summer holidays are now in full force.  In Washington, Congress adjourned for their annual August recess and won’t return until almost mid-September.  Brussels, London, and Berlin (which went on holiday two weeks ago) are also quiet - indeed, empty - as government officials and staff have disappeared to the beaches or mountains.  The same is true for most financial markets.  The Summer Doldrums are upon us.

But there are still plenty of important things happening around the world this week.  China implements its new ban on exporting germanium and gallium. Both are critical raw materials used in semiconductors and other electronics, and the technology industry is scrambling to figure out how to make up for the shortfall.  Overall, China produces more than 90 percent of both germanium and gallium. 

Also, this week,  the US takes the chair of the UN Security Council for August.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will personally chair a special meeting to discuss the “Famine and conflict-induced global food insecurity” – an issue that goes right to Russia’s recent abrogation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (which seems to be official dead as Russia refused to negotiate).  Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of the states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will discuss burnings of the Koran in Sweden and Denmark at an extraordinary virtual meeting.  Both burnings have sparked widespread protests and outrage in the greater Muslim world that does not seem to be calming down.

On the global economic radar screen, a lot of economic data is hitting the markets his week.  Markets will be particularly watching China’s PMIs for further indications of the size and scope of the country’s fading economic recovery.   In Europe, markets will also focus on the Eurozone’s CIP and GDP numbers, the Bank of England’s policy meeting, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rates decision.   In the Americas, the Central Bank of Brazil meets, while in the US, jobs data and productivity data are reported. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 30, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Panama Canal Authority will begin limiting daily transit capacity due to severe drought conditions.  They are expected to allow only 32 ships per day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• APEC holds a meeting on the Finance Ministers’ Process in Seattle, Washington.

• In Panama, the trial of 36 defendants, including ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

• Chile hands over the presidency of the Pacific Alliance to Peru.

• Today is Independence Day in Vanuatu, marking the day in 1980 when they were granted their independence from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia celebrates Naval Day.  Traditionally, the country shows off its latest weapons, ships, and aircraft, but it is not clear what will happen this year due to the Ukrainian invasion.  While on paper, Russia has the second-largest naval fleet in the world.  But the reality is many of those ships are small - Russia currently has only one aircraft carrier (to the US Navy’s eleven super-carriers) – and they place most of their focus on nuclear submarines, although that has reportedly been cut back due to the costs of the Ukraine invasion.

• Italy may declare a state of emergency to deal with the heatwave the country has been enduring.

• French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire visits Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel unveils a massive new rail network that could eventually enable train connections to Saudi Arabia.   

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Central African Republic will hold a referendum on changing the constitution to allow incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to run for a third term in 2025.  Ominously, the Russian Wagner Group will be serving as “guards” for the referendums voting centers.

•  The Economic Community of West African States will meet in Abuja, Nigeria, to discuss Niger's July 26 coup.

• Today is Enthronement Day in Morocco, celebrating the day King Mohammed VI took the throne in 1999.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Monday, July 31, 2023

Global

• The foreign ministers of the states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will discuss the burnings of the Koran in Sweden and Denmark at an extraordinary virtual meeting. 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

• The UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine, Denise Brown. She will brief reporters virtually on the humanitarian situation in the country, including in Odesa.

• The US assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is out of session for the month of August.  The House of Representatives returns on September 12, and the Senate on September 5.

• Former President Trump may face new criminal charges this week by Special Counsel Jack Smith over allegations of his involvement in the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

• Republican Presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis releases his “Declaration of Economic Independence” during a speech in New Hampshire.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago PMI (July), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July), Loan Officer Survey

• Mexico GDP (Q2)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Private Bank Lending (June), M3 Money Supply (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & General PMIs (July)

• Japan Retail Sales (June), Industrial Production (July), Consumer Confidence (July), Housing Starts (June), Construction Orders (June)

• India Government Budget Value (June)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July), Housing Credit (June), Private Sector Credit (June),

• Singapore Bank Lending (June), Business Confidence (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President von der Leyen travels to the Philippines for meetings with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines.  While there, she will deliver a keynote speech at the business event “A New Era of EU-Philippines Relations, driven by Stronger Trade and Investment for a sustainable future" in Manila.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, GDP (Q2), Inflation (July), CPI (July)

• Germany Retail Sales (June), Import Prices (June)

• UK Mortgage Lending (June), BoE Consumer Credit (June)

• Italy GDP (Q2), Inflation (July), CPI (July)

• Spain Current Account (May)

• Russia  Monetary Policy Report, M3 Money Supply (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Lebanon's Central Bank head Riad Salameh will leave office.  No successor has been named, which is likely to further exacerbate the country’s economic crisis.

• Turkey’s President Erdogan meets Iraqi President Rashid and PM Sudani, Baghdad. Discussions will focus on the resumption of an oil pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and the water crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2), Private Bank Lending (June), M3 Money Supply (June)

• Turkey Tourism Revenues (Q2), Tourist Arrivals (June)

• Pakistan’s Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Trade Balance (June), FX Reserves (June), Private Sector Credit (June)

• Kenya Inflation (July)

• Uganda Inflation (July)

• Ghana mid-term budget

Tuesday, August 1, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Guyana celebrates Emancipation Day, marking the day when slavery was abolished in 1838.

• TikTok plans to launch its US e-commerce business sometime this week, placing it in competition with Amazon, Shein, and Temu.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Redbook (July 29), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July), ISM Manufacturing PMI (July), JOLTS Job Openings (July), ISM Manufacturing Employment (July), Construction Spending (June), Dallas Fed Services Indexes (July), LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Mexico FX Reserves (June), Business Confidence (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (June), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July), Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s new export ban on germanium and gallium goes into effect.  Both are critical raw materials used in semiconductors and other electronics. According to Nikkei, the ban is “expected to affect chipmakers and key substrate suppliers, including Coherent, Wolfspeed, and AXT of the U.S.; Israeli-German Freiberger; and Japan's Sumitomo Electric, all of which require those raw materials. The export controls may also have ripple effects down the chip supply chain as, on average in recent years, China has produced 90% of the world's germanium and over 90% of its gallium.”

• China celebrates Army Day, marking the foundation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy.

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Japan Unemployment (June), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (July)

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (July), Home Loans (June), Building Permits (June), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (July), Commodity Prices (July)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July), Inflation (July), Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July), Unemployment (June)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July), Unemployment (July)

• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July), New Car Sales (July)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Nigeria Labour Congress, a powerful confederation of unions, will strike over fuel subsidies and other economic policies.

• Benin celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day in 1960 when the country gained its independence from France.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July), Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

• Nigeria PMI (July)

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Global

• The G20 Ministerial Meeting on Women's Empowerment will be held in Gandhinagar, India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA Mortgage Indexes (July 28), ADP Employment (July), Total Vehicle Sales (July)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• South Korea Inflation (July), CPI (July), Inflation (July)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Australia Ai Group Indexes (July)

• Singapore S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

• Bank of Thailand Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Pope Francis begins a six-day visit to Portugal, including visiting the holy shrine of Fatima.

• North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day, marking when there was an uprising against the Ottoman Empire in 1903 as well as the first Anti-Fascist Assembly for the National Liberation of Macedonia in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain Unemployment (July), Tourist Arrivals (June)

• Russia GDP (June), Unemployment (June), Business Confidence (July), Real Wage Growth (May), Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), Auto Sales (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate in connection with “Famine and conflict-induced global food insecurity” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security.”   US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will chair the session.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The six-month-old cease-fire between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) – a rebel group – begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin speaks on “Winning the War on Inflation” at the Shenandoah Valley Partnership, Weyers Cave, Virginia.

• US S&P Services & Composite PMIs (July), ISM Services Reports (July)

• Challenger Job Cuts (July), Nonfarm Productivity (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (July 29)

• Brazil S&P Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan's trial in a graft case involving his alleged non-disclosure of assets after selling state gifts resumes.  Protests are expected around the country.

• APEC Food Security Ministers meet in Seattle, Washington.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• Japan Jipun Bank Services PMI (July)

• India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (July), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Retail Sales (June)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for the European Commission's decision on the Korean Air-Asiana merger.

• In the UK, GMB union members begin a strike at Amazon’s Rugeley fulfillment center in Staffordshire in a dispute over pay. Another two-day strike is planned at the e-commerce company’s Coventry warehouse tomorrow by up to 1,000 staff.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Bank of England interest rate policy, BoE Monetary Policy Report & Minutes

• ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a speech via webinar on "Getting disinflation right," organized by Bocconi University, Milan 

• Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July), PPIs (June),

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July), New Car Registrations (July)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• France Budget Balance (June), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July)

• Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

• Turkey Inflation (July), PPI (July), CPI (July), FX Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa S&P Global PMIs (July)

• Kenya PMIs (July)

• Ghana PMIs (July)

• Zambia PMIs (July)

• Mozambique PMIs (July)

• Uganda PMIs (July)

Friday, August 4, 2023

Global

• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Price Index (July)

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (July)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Unemployment Rate (July)

• Canada Unemployment (July), Ivey PMI (July)

• Mexico Auto Exports (July), Auto Production (July)

• Brazil Car Production (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Thailand’s Parliament will meet yet again in an effort to choose a prime minister.  But much depends on what the Constitutional Court decides on August 1st as to whether the Move Forward Party Leader Pita Limjaroenrat can be excluded – as the parliament voted to do last week – or if he can stand for the prime minister.

• Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa continues a multinational trip across Asia and Africa.  He began the trip on July 27 and is visiting India, Sri Lanka, India, the Maldives, South Africa, Uganda, and Ethiopia. 

• Japan hosts its first joint fighter jet exercises with Italy through Tuesday. 

• The Cook Islands celebrates Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India FX Reserves (July 28)

• Singapore Retail Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill and Fergal Shortall, Director, Policy Analysis, give a Monetary Policy Report Briefing.

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (July), Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Factory Orders (July), HCOB Construction PMI (July)

• France Industrial Production (June) Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), HCOB Construction PMI (July)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (July), New Car Sales (July)

• Spain Industrial Production (June)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Ghana celebrates Founder’s Day, commemorating its struggle for independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zambia mid-term budget

• Uganda Second Quarter Current Account

Saturday, August 5, 2023 

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Burkina Faso Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, marking when the country declared its independence from Spain in 1825.

• Jamaica celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it gained independence from the UK.

• El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, celebrating the Divine Savior for whom the country is named.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• APEC holds a high-level meeting on Health and the Economy in Seattle, Washington.

• Today is the78th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 31 - August 4, 2023

Washington became a ghost town today (Friday, July 28th).  The US House of Representatives adjourned Thursday night until September 5, and the US Senate adjourns today until September 5, too.  All the major financial regulators concluded their business this past week before they, too, headed for the beach for August.  Thus, next week is going to be extraordinarily quiet.  The only regulatory meeting we see on the calendar is an SEC closed meeting.

 But regulators kept busy right up to the end of the week, issuing an important joint guidance notice late Friday afternoon.  Specifically, the Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC, and National Credit Union Administration issued updated guidance to ensure banks and credit unions understood their ability to use the Fed’s discount window (You can read the guidance statement HERE.).  The reason for the notice now is there have been questions as to whether prompt usage of the discount window could have fended off the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Also, this past week, the big event was the release of new proposed bank capital standards by the FDIC and Federal Reserve.  The only big surprise from the proposal was news that Fed Chair Jay Powell had voiced concerns about the proposal.   Powell voted in favor of the proposal, but two other Fed Governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, voted no.  Congressional opponents of the proposal quickly picked up on Powell’s reticence and the two “no” votes and are now planning hearings in September demanding statistical analysis of how the proposal was crafted.  We will keep you updated on that as soon as they are scheduled.

Also happening this past week was the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting on Friday to consider several issues, including the transition from LIBOR, climate-related regulations, and updates on the mortgage market.   No major proposals came from it.  You can review the Treasury Department’s official Readout of the meeting HERE.

Below is what else is happening in the US regulatory world next week (which is, as we said above, pretty much nothing):

U.S. Congressional Hearings

• Both the House of Representatives and Senate are in Summer recess until September 5, 2023.  There are no hearings scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings

• Thursday, August 3/2:00 p.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a closed meeting.

• NOTE: The Federal Reserve, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau,  and National Credit Union Administration have no major meetings or speeches scheduled this coming week.

Think Tank Events

•  There are no think tank events of note this coming week focused on financial services or financial regulation.

Recommended Weekend Reads

July 29 - 30, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful, and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Global

• “How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World”  New York Times

  In this interactive article, the author argues The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Europe is shrinking. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation.  But what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning. The projections are reliable and stark: By 2050, people aged 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get.  As a result, experts predict things many wealthier countries take for granted — like pensions, retirement ages, and strict immigration policies — will need overhauls to be sustainable. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say.

• “The buzz about electromagnet pulse weapons”  Orbis

  An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) may be naturally occurring or can be created from the detonation of a nuclear weapon high above the Earth’s surface. Either way, it would “fry” electronics completely – virtually all unprotected technology.  Various presidential administrations have grappled with how to best manage risks around EMP threats. As this paper explains, the nuclear EMP debate is unfortunately often framed between two extremes. Some administrations have focused on naturally occurring EMP threats, such as space weather events, whereas others have focused predominately on the nuclear EMP threat or even taken a hybrid approach here. Despite these contretemps, protecting against one form of an EMP threat thankfully also serves to protect against the other. Thus, this paper recommends that the United States Government and the private sector work together to harden the electric grid from both natural and man-made EMP incidents and establish an EMP Manhattan Project to develop national contingency plans for such scenarios.

Americas

• “Chipping Away: Assessing and Addressing the Labor Market Gap Facing the U.S. Semiconductor Industry”  Semiconductor Industry Association and Oxford Economics

  Thanks in large part to the enactment of the landmark CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, a significant share of new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the U.S. But as America’s semiconductor ecosystem expands in the years ahead, so too will its demand for semiconductor workers with the necessary skills, training, and education.  This report projects the semiconductor industry’s workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade, representing 33% growth. Of these new jobs, the study estimates roughly 67,000—or 58% of projected new jobs (and 80% of projected new technical jobs)—risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates.

Asia  

• “The Case for a Hard Break with China”    Oren Cass & Gabriela Rodriquez/Foreign Affairs

  The authors argue that never in human history have nations with such radically different economic and political systems as the United States and China attempted economic integration. When welcomed into the international community in the late 1990s, China’s GDP was roughly one-tenth of the United States GDP, and in 1999, it was still one of the world’s poorest countries per capita, ranked between Sri Lanka and Guyana. U.S. leaders across the political spectrum were confident that by encouraging China’s integration into the global economy.  It has not turned out that way. Instead, China has rapidly become—by some measures— the world’s largest economy and a powerful counterweight to U.S. influence. Its state-controlled economy and increasingly authoritarian leadership have subverted U.S. investment, supply chains, and institutions. The fundamental problem is that the United States’ free-market economy is incompatible with a Chinese state-controlled one. U.S. liberty and democracy are antithetical to the authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party. The United States must break from China or else become irrevocably corrupted by it.

• “China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Decade On”  International Institute for Strategic Studies

  China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has served as an avenue for Chinese infrastructure development across the Asia-Pacific. However, not all countries there have received equal attention or embraced BRI membership. Following a 2018 peak, BRI investments have slowed, providing a window for Western alternatives. While concerns of ‘debt-trap’ diplomacy – due to indebtedness to China – may not have been borne out, Beijing seems to be moving towards promoting Chinese-centric norms of security, development, and digital governance. 

Europe/Eurasia 

• “Russia’s Surging Trade with China Creates Infrastructure Headaches”  Moscow Times

  Russia’s logistics network is creaking under the weight of record trade with Asia. Russia’s trade with China jumped 30% last year to a record $191 billion, according to Chinese customs data. In the first six months of 2023, trade turnover in dollar terms was more than double pre-pandemic levels.

Middle East

•   “Work on Israel-Saudi land bridge has begun, Israel Foreign Ministry Confirms”  Al-Monitor

  The project, the first of its kind in modern history, will facilitate the transfer of goods in trucks initially between the UAE, Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.  And it is designed will operate even if diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia are not officially normalized. 

Surveys & Charts of the Week 

• “China’s Approach to Foreign Policy Gets Largely Negative Reviews in 24-Country Survey”  Pew Research Center

  In a newly released survey, views of China are broadly negative across 24 countries in a new Pew Research Center survey: A median of 67% of adults express unfavorable views of the country, while 28% have a favorable opinion.  Negative views extend to evaluations of China’s international actions. Despite several high-profile diplomatic initiatives by Beijing over the past year – such as brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran and issuing a 12-point proposal for the end of violence in Ukraine – a median of 71% think China does not contribute to global peace and stability.

• “8 facts about Americans and Twitter as it rebrands to X”   Pew Research

  Pew has a second fascinating survey release this week, this one on how Americans see and use Twitter (now rebranded “X” by Elon Musk).  The survey revealed eight facts, a number of them quite surprising:

1.     In 2021, 23 percent of US adults said they use Twitter.

2.     Democrats are more likely than Republicans to use Twitter (as of 2021)

3.     As of this Spring 2023, 60 percent of US adults who had used Twitter in the past year said they’d taken a break from the platform in that time.

4.     Also, in Spring 2023, 25 percent of Twitter uses said it is unlikely they will on the site a year from now.

5.     Following Twitter’s acquisition by Musk, most highly active users continued to use the platform but posted less frequently.

6.     The vast majority of tweets are actually just replies or retweets – 75 percent were either replies to other users (40 percent) or retweets (35 percent).  Only 15 percent were original tweets.

7.     Over the past two years, Democratic and Republican Twitter users’ view of the sites impact on American democracy has changed – For example, Republican users have become much less likely to say the site is bad for democracy (60 percent in 2021 vs. 21 percent now).

8.     Finally, the survey found partisan Twitter users have grown further apart in their views about misinformation, harassment and civility on the platform.

Election 2024: Opening Salvos

Neuberger Berman’s Private Bank’s Aspire Magazine

It was a great pleasure to be interviewed for the latest edition of Aspire, published by Neuberger Berman’s Private Bank, talking about the early outlook for the 2024 elections. You can read the full interview here or download it here.

There are certainly going to be lots of twists and turns ahead in this presidential election cycle, which is likely to be unlike just about any other presidential election we have seen in a hundred years or more.

The Global Week Ahead

July 23 - 30, 2023

While most of the capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are going quiet this week or at the end of this week for summer vacations throughout August, it will still be busy in politics and economics. 

The locus of events geopolitically is in Asia this week.  Both the US Secretary of State and Defense Secretary are in Asia for meetings – Secretary of State Blinken in Tonga and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Papua New Guinea (both to discuss bilateral security agreements) before they meet up in Australia for the US-Australia ministerial meetings to discuss defense and security issues in the region.  French President Emmanuel Macron will also be in the area, visiting the French territory of New Caledonia to discuss enhanced economic ties.  All this occurs as Taiwan holds massive defense drills testing the military ability to defend against a potential Chinese invasion and/or blockade.  Civilians participate, too, as they practice shelter-in-place exercises.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the 2nd Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg.  The Summit was initially scheduled in Africa but was rescheduled to prevent warrants placed by the International Criminal Court on Putin from being served.  While the Summit, in which an estimated 43 African leaders come together, is scheduled to cover a wide range of issues, the dominant issue will be Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the potentially dire implications for African and Middle East food security.  Putin now appears to be attempting to broker a new deal that cuts Ukrainian grain and wheat from being exported and Russia essentially taking over as the primary supplier to Africa.  

On the global economic radar screen this week, it is all about central banks and interest rates.  The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan all meet to decide whether to keep rates in place or raise them again.  All this comes as markets watch a flood of flash PMIs worldwide (amid a hectic earnings week).

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant To Report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodia holds national elections.  All 125 National Assembly seats are up for election for a five-year term.  Currently, all 125 seats are held by the Cambodian People’s Party.  The opposition FUNCINPEC Party and Khmer National United Party hold none – and it looks like they will likely win none.  The Prime Minister, Hun Sen, has led a multi-year crackdown on his opposition.

• Japan’s restrictions on semiconductor sales to China go into effect.  In January, Japan placed restrictive controls on the sale of all chipmaking tools to China and placed restrictions on the export of 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. In so doing, Japan formally joins the US and the Netherlands in implementing curbs.

• Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong will undertake a six-day trip to Europe and visit Austria, Italy, and the Vatican through July 28.  Vietnam is celebrating 50 years of diplomatic relations with both Italy and Austria.  Trade between Vietnam and Italy, and Austria has grown considerably in recent years and is on track to reach $10 billion annually.   Relations between the Holy See and Vietnam have also expanded in recent years.  Seven percent of Vietnam is Roman Catholic (more than 7 million people).  Vietnam is the only Asian communist country to have an unofficial representative of the Vatican in the country and is now moving to make it official.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Spain holds general elections. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez – leader of the Spanish Socialists Workers’ Party (PSOE) – is facing a tough challenge from center-right Popular People’s Party candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo who is leading in the polls.  Moreover, the more conservative Vox Party is likely to gain positions in the new government.  Sánchez called for early elections and supporters and election observers are suggesting he may have made a mistake as voter sentiment is angry right now. The elections come only a few weeks after Spain assumed the presidency of the EU (until December 31st). 

The UK

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel’s parliament (Knesset) is expected to hold its final vote on the controversial judicial reform legislation. 

• Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Monday, July 24, 2023

Global

• The BRICS National Security Advisors and High Representatives on National Security Meeting will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa, through July 25.  This is in advance of the BRICS Leaders Meeting that will take place in August.

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Rome to participate in the UN Food Systems Summit +2 Stocktaking Moment. The high-level event is meant to build on the momentum of the 2021 Food Systems Summit. While in Rome, the Secretary-General will also meet with the President of the Republic of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, and the President of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, as well as with other leaders who are attending the summit. The UN Deputy Secretary-General, Amina J. Mohammed, will also participate in the event. On the margins of the conference, the Deputy Secretary-General will meet with H.E. Mr. Antonio Tajani, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy as well as heads of delegations attending the conference.

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) has a General Council meeting in Geneva through July 25.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Tonga (the first visit by a US Secretary of State), New Zealand, and Australia through July 29.  While in Tonga, he will dedicate the new US Embassy and hold discussions with Tongan leaders.  The visit is seen as a counter to China’s aggressive efforts to bring Tonga into its orbit.  Blinken then goes to Wellington, New Zealand, to meet with his counterpart as well as attend the FIFA Women’s World Cup.  From there, he goes to Australia to participate in the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) and holds bilateral talks with Australian leaders. 

• US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to Papua New Guinea and Australia.  This is the first time a US Defense Secretary has visited Papua New Guinea, and while he is there, Austin will discuss a plan to grant the US military access to six sites in the country for the next 15 years.    In Australia, Austin will join Secretary of State Blinken for the Australian-US ministerial meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)

• Canada Wholesale Sales (June)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron begins a four-day visit to the French territory of New Caledonia.

• A delegation from the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) travels to Japan and then on to Taiwan through July 27.  

• Taiwan holds its annual Han Kuang military drills through July 28.  The exercise is an annual military event held by the Army and Air Force is a test of the military’s ability to preserve its forces during an invasion and to counter potential Chinese blockade attempts.  It will include shelter-in-place and evacuation drills in districts across the island for the first time ever.

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. delivers his second State of the Nation Address.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Jibun Bank Services & Manufacturing PMIs (July)

• Australia Judo Bank Services & Manufacturing PMIs (July)

• Singapore Inflation (June), CPI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The 15th Euro-Latin American Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Madrid through July 27.  

• A delegation of the EU Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will travel to the US for meetings with US financial regulators.  They are expected to discuss inflation, support to Ukraine and financial sanctions on Russia, digital finance, sustainable finance, banking and capital markets supervision, cryptocurrencies, and competition policy.

• The EU Competitiveness Ministers hold informal meetings through July 25 in Bilbao, Spain.  They are expected to discuss boosting sustainable consumption and the New Consumer Agenda 2020–2025 and will analyze and establish lines of work to increase consumer empowerment in the green transition. Meanwhile, the ministers for industry and the internal market address Open Strategic Self-Government.  This meeting comes less than a week after European Commissioner Margrethe Vestager named U.S. Professor Fiona Scott Morton as the new chief economist for the Commission’s Directorate-General for Competition is likely to expose tensions among the ministers.  Scott Martin withdrew from consideration after French President Emmanuel Macron criticized the appointment because of Scott Morton’s previous ties to big US Tech firms.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

• France HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

• Spain PPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit for meetings with Erdogan on July 28.   The Abbas-Erdogan meetings are expected to focus on finding ways to improve Israeli-Palestinian relations as well improved Turkish-Palestinian relations

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi will attend the 13th Meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers and High Representatives on National Security in Johannesburg, South Africa.  He will then travel to Nigeria, Kenya, and Turkey for high-level meetings.

• The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk,  will conduct a two-day official mission to Chad through July 26.  During his visit, he will meet with senior Government officials as well as human rights representatives and members of political parties and civil society.  Chad has seen a huge influx of Sudanese refugees fleeing the violence which broke out two months ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)

• Ghana interest rate decision

Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Global

• The World Bank issues its World Economic Outlook update.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Markets Committee begins two days of closed meetings.

• US Redbook (July 22), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (May), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/Manufacturing Shipments Index/fed Services Index (July)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July), IPCA mid-month CPI (July)

• Mexico Economic Activity (May)

• Argentina Retail Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea GDP (Q2)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Loan Growth (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels to discuss Ukrainian imports and their impact on EU farm markets.  This comes in the wake of Russia withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  While Ukraine struggles to figure out how to move its agricultural exports out, Poland, Romania, and other EU countries are furious at the impact it is having on prices within the EU and the negative impact it is having on farmers. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Bank Lending Survey

• Germany Ifo Current Conditions & Expectations (July)

• UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Q3), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (May)

• Turkey Business Confidence (July), Capacity Utilization (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Tunisia Republic Day, commemorating the vote in 1957 abolishing the monarchy and establishing the country as a republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Central Bank leading economic indicator

• Ghana mid-term budget

• Zambia mid-term budget

• Nigeria interest rate decision

• Lesotho interest rate decision

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, is scheduled to appear in court to plead guilty to charges of tax evasion and gun charges in a Wilmington, Delaware federal court.

• Cuba celebrates National Rebellion Day, marking the day when Fidel Castro sited as when the revolution began in 1953.  On that day, Castro, along with 136 insurgents, laid siege to the military unit in Santiago de Cuba.  The raid failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate decision & press conference with  Fed Chair Jay Powell;

• US New Home Sales (June), MBA Mortgage Indexes (July 21)

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

• Brazil Current Account (June), FDI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force will host French Air Force units for their first bilateral jet training exercise.  The drills go through July 28 and will take place at Nyutabaru Air Base in Miyazaki, Japan. 

• Today is Maldives Independence Day, celebrating when the country no longer was a protectorate of Britain and granted autonomy.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

• Australia Inflation (Q2), Monthly /CPI Indicator (June), RBA CPIs (Q2)

• Singapore Industrial Production (June)

• India M3 Money Supply (July 14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The 2nd Russia-Africa Summit takes place in St. Petersburg, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the summit (which originally was scheduled to take place in Africa but was rescheduled to avoid warrants placed by the International Criminal Court on Putin from being served).  The Summit comes in the wake of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative – a move which will have potentially grave consequences on African food security.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Loans to Households (June), Loans to Companies (June), M3 Money Supply (June)

• France Consumer Confidence (July), Unemployment (June)

• UK New Car Production (June)

• Russia Industrial Production (June), Corporate Profits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Liberia Independence Day, celebrating when the country was founded in 1822 as a haven for freed African-American slaves. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Central Bank interest rate decision  

Thursday, July 27, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the Central African Republic sanctions.  The Security Council is also scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joe Biden will host Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss Ukraine, China, and Italy’s upcoming presidency of the G7.

• In Peru, the Workers' General Confederation is planning two days of protests in Lima in opposition to the government. This is part of protests going back to last year when then-President Pedro Castillo was removed from office as he was attempting to take over the government.  But many Peruvians accuse current President Dina Boluarte and her allies of illegitimately removing and jailing Castillo, which led to sometimes violent protests through March in which 67 people were killed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US GDP (Q2), Durable Goods Orders (June), Goods Trade Balance (June), Wholesale Inventories (June), Retail Inventories (June), Initial Jobless Claims (July 22), PCE Prices (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (June), Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (July)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)

• Brazil PPI (June), Federal Tax Revenues (June), Net Payrolls (June)

• Mexico Unemployment (June), Balance of Trade (June)

• Argentina Consumer Spending (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Thailand’s National Assembly is expected to hold yet another vote for prime minister. Last week, conservatives and military-appointed senators in Parliament voted to block the frontrunner for the job, Pita Limjaroenrat, from being nominated again for the post.

• The APEC Business Advisory Council meets in Manila, the Philippines.

• Today is the 70th anniversary of the armistice being signed to end the Korean War (technically, it is a cease-fire, and North Korea is still at war with South Korea and the US).

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (June)

• Australia Export/Import Prices (Q2)

• Singapore Unemployment (Q2)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen in Salzburg, Austria.

• EU Health Ministers will hold an informal meeting through July 28 in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.  They will focus on the Spanish presidency's priorities of implementing new initiatives focused on prevention and healthy lifestyles, strengthening the capacities of health systems, and developing new EU strategies in this field.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (August)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)

• Spain Unemployment (Q2), Retail Sales (June)

• Italy Business Confidence (July), Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey.  Netanyahu’s visit comes days after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visiting for meetings with Erdogan.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, FX Reserves (July 21)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (June)

• Zambia inflation (July), Trade Balance (June)

• Malawi Central Bank interest rate decision 

Friday, July 28, 2023

Global

• The G20 Environment and Climate Sustainability Ministers will meet in Chennai, India.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (HoMC).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will chair a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the US Treasury.  They are expected to discuss: An update on the work of the Council’s Nonbank Mortgage Servicing Task Force, an update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee, and an update on developments in the banking sector.  The preliminary agenda for the public session includes an update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee and an update on the transition from LIBOR.

• Peru celebrates Independence Day, the day when the Declaration of Independence from Spain was announced in 1821.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PCDE Price Index (June), Personal Spending (June), Employment Cost Index (Q2), PCE Price Index (June), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations/5-year Inflation Expectations (July)/Consumer Expectations (July)/Current Conditions Reports (July)

• Canada GDP (May), Budget Balance (April & May)

• Brazil Nominal Budget Balance, Bank Lending (June), IGP-M Inflation (July), Unemployment (June)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Hong Kong High Court will hand down a decision as to whether an injunction outlawing a song associated with the 2019 democracy protests is legal.  The Hong Kong government put out a broad injunction banning anyone from “broadcasting, performing, printing, publishing, selling, or offering for sale, distributing, disseminating, displaying or reproducing” the song.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report, CPI (July)

• India Bank Loan Growth (July 14), Deposit Growth (July 14), Infrastructure Output (June)

• Australia PPI (Q2), Retail Sales (June)

• Singapore Bank Lending (June), Export& Import Prices (June), PPI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Gatwick Airport in London will see workers go on strike for four days over pay.

• San Marino celebrates the Fall of Fascism Day and Freedom Day, a national holiday.  It marks the day in 1942 when San Marino was liberated.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment (July), Industrial Sentiment (July), Selling Price Expectations (July), Services Sentiment (July), Consumer Confidence (July)

• Germany Import Prices (July), Inflation (July)

• France GDP (Q2), Household Consumption (June), Inflation (June), PPI (June)

• Spain GDP (Q2), Inflation (July), Business Confidence (July)

• Italy PPI (June), Industrial Production (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa trade balance (June)

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR 

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Sunday, July 30, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Independence Day in Vanuatu, marking the day in 1980 when they were granted their independence from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia celebrates Naval Day.  Traditionally, the country shows off its latest weapons, ships, and aircraft, but it is not clear what will happen this year due to the Ukrainian invasion.  While on paper, Russia has the second-largest naval fleet in the world.  But the reality is many of those ships are small - Russia currently has only one aircraft carrier (to the US Navy’s eleven super-carriers) – and they place most of their focus on nuclear submarines, although that has reportedly been cut back due to the costs of the Ukraine invasion.

Economic Reports/Events –

NSTR

• NSTR 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Central African Republic will hold a referendum on changing the constitution to allow incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to run for a third term in 2025.

• Today is Enthronement Day in Morocco, celebrating the day King Mohammed VI took the throne in 1999.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

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