US Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 24 - 28, 2023

August is right around the corner, and Washington is preparing to disappear for the month for vacations.  Congress will be out of session for almost the entire month, and most regulatory agencies traditionally take advantage of the quiet to also head to the beach.  But before it all goes quiet, financial regulators have scheduled a busy week ahead. 

The week's big event is Thursday, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve are expected to vote on a draft requiring higher bank capital standards. 

Both the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission have open meetings this week.  The SEC will vote on four cyber-related rules, and the CFTC will vote on four new swap regulatory rules.

Also, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets Friday to consider several issues, including the transition from LIBOR, climate-related regulations, and updates on the mortgage market.  

Congress is relatively quiet, with only one financial service-related hearing in the Senate Banking Committee looking at banking and other financial services fees.

Below is what else is happening in the US regulatory world next week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

• Wednesday, July 26, 2023- 9:30 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Taking Account of Fees and Tactics Impacting Americans' Wallets."

US Regulatory Meetings

• Sunday to Tuesday – July 23- July 25: A delegation of the EU Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will travel to the US for meetings with US financial regulators.  They are expected to discuss inflation, support for Ukraine and financial sanctions on Russia, digital finance, sustainable finance, banking and capital markets supervision, cryptocurrencies, and competition policy.

• Tuesday, July 25 – 11:00 a.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA), and the Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions (DFI) are holding a joint public roundtable at the DFI Headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give pre-recorded remarks, and Commissioner Mark Uyeda will be in attendance. The roundtable will be webcast on SEC.gov.

  The event will consist of a few key sessions:

  • Investor roundtable focused on retail investor issues, where investors will engage in a moderated discussion with the Investor Advocate and the WI DFI Securities Administrator

  • Public roundtable webcast and investor case studies, where retail investors, investigators, and regulators will share experiences of securities frauds and engage in discussions related to identifying frauds and avoiding suspicious investments.

  • Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)-moderated discussions on investor protection during periods of firm insolvency.

  • Stakeholder discussion with the SEC’s Retail Strategy Task Force on retail investor frauds, deceptive practices, and what the future of investor protection looks like

• Tuesday, July 25 – 11:00 a.m. – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) holds a “REgCast” to provide information to help financial institutions determine whether they are covered by financial institutions for purposes of the small business lending rule.  To watch the event, you can register HERE.

• Wednesday, July 26 – 10:00 a.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting.  The three agenda items that will be considered are (the full agenda is HERE):

  • Cybersecurity Risk Management, Strategy, Governance, and Incident Disclosure

  • Conflicts of Interest Associated with the Use of Predictive Data Analytics by Broker-Dealers and Investment Advisers

  • Exemption for Certain Investment Advisers Operating Through the Internet  

• Wednesday, July 26, 2023- 2:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

• Tuesday, July 26, 2023 - 9:30 a.m. – The Commodities Futures Trading Commission will hold an Open Meeting  to consider the following:

  • Final Rule: Reporting and Information Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

  • Proposed Rule: Swap Confirmation Requirements for Swap Execution Facilities

  • Proposed Rule: Amendments to Provisions Common to Registered Entities

  • Proposed Rule: Amendments to Margin Requirements for Uncleared Swaps for Swap Dealers and Major Swap Participants (Seeded Funds and Money Market Funds)

• Wednesday, July 26 - 3:30 p.m. – The US Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Risk-Sharing Mechanisms to discuss the role of nongovernmental mechanisms in supporting the terrorism risk insurance market and related to the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program.

• Thursday, July 27 – The US Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC Board are both expected to vote on proposed higher capital requirements.  It is expected it will apply to banks with more than $100 billion in assets and would implement the so-called Basel III proposal finalized in 2017.

• Thursday, July 27 – 2:00 p.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a Closed Meeting.

• Friday, July 28, 2023: The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet at the US Treasury Department to consider a number of issues.  These include:

  • An update on the work of the Council’s Nonbank Mortgage Servicing Task Force;

  • An update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee and an update on developments in the banking sector.*  

  • An update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee and;

  • An update on the transition from LIBOR.  

Recommended Weekend Reading

July 22 - 23, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Global 

• “The Scramble for Critical Raw Materials: Time to Take Stock?” Global Trade Alert/University of St. Gallen/Max Schmidheiny Foundation

  The growing scramble for so-called Critical Raw Materials has become an acute flashpoint between nations. Accusations and fears that governments weaponize trade in these industrial materials are in the headlines daily.  Given the central role they play in the digital and energy transitions, policies to secure and produce these materials have the potential to upset trade relations for decades to come. The authors of his study sort out the fact from fiction in this complex, long-term policy challenge, arguing that many of the narratives deployed by governments simply don’t stand up to scrutiny.  They go on to lay out five steps that would “thicken” markets over time for the small number of industrial materials where major excess demand gaps are likely to emerge in the decades ahead.

• “Cyber Operations during the Russo-Ukrainian War”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2021, one of the immediate fears in the West was Russia’s supposedly vaunted cyber operations expected attacks on governments, militaries, corporations, and individuals.  Yet, Russia has not launched an all-out, costly cyberwar against Ukraine or the West.  Instead, Russia has decided to focus on political warfare and espionage along with criminal malware campaigns – most of it focused on Ukraine, who have been fairly successful at beating them back, employing hundreds of thousands of IT volunteers to support cyber operations against Russia. The study also goes on to make a series of recommendations on what other nations should do to continue to be vigilant.

Europe/Eurasia

•   “Strategy on China”   Government of the Federal Republic of Germany

  Last week, the German government released its first official strategy on how to comprehensively deal with China.  Built off the nation’s first official national security strategy, both reports come after months of intense debate and outright bickering between the various German political parties.  In the report, the German government commits to working with China economically but also says, “de-risking from China is urgently needed.  However, we are not pursuing a decoupling of our economies.”  The report also puts the onus on businesses to “keep a close eye on relevant China-related developments, data, and risks.”  The report also goes on the make clear Germany’s views on China-Taiwan tensions: “The status quo of the Taiwan Strait may only be changed by peaceful means and mutual consent.  Military escalation would also affect German and European interests.”

• “Russia’s Weapon of Mass Starvation”  Center for European Policy Analysis

  Russia's withdrawal from a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports risks exacerbating famines and maritime danger in the Black Sea.   A panel of experts explains what the impact on global markets and supplies is going to look like unless the deal is restored. 

Middle East

•   “Saudi Arabia imports record volumes of discounted Russian fuel oil in June”  Al-Monitor

  Europe used to be the top market for Russian oil and petroleum products, but all that has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Saudi Arabia has seen a ten-fold year-on-year increase in fuel oil at a steep discount, all of which the Kingdom resells into the open market.

• “Why ISIS Cannot Bring the Caliphate Back to Life”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Since the defeat of ISIS forces at Al-Baghouz in 2019, five factors have stymied the group’s revival in Syria and Iraq.  1) Local conditions in both Syria and Iraq have militated against ISIS’s return (Syria and Iranian forces have regained control), 2) There has been an ebbing of the Islamic tide not only in Syria and Iraq but across the entire region, 3) the population in the areas where ISIS operated has changed, 4) ISIS just can’t seem to attract new recruits to supplement its ranks and replace its losses, and 5) there has been a significant decline in the proliferation of weapons and financing available to ISIS.

Americas

• “After AMLO: The Economic, Security, and Political Outlook in Mexico in 2024”  Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

  President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) sought to transform the politics, economy, and security of Mexico. He calls his wide-ranging series of reforms the “fourth transformation,” placing it on par with other great moments in Mexican history. But as his sexenio—Mexico’s six-year presidential term—ends, and AMLO has no possibility for reelection, the Mexico AMLO will leave his successor is in dire order. What will Mexico look like in 2024?

• “Remote work has made downtown DC a ghost town as federal office buildings sit mostly empty”  Business Insider

  A General Accountability Office (GAO) report released on July 13th has found that 17 of 24 federal agency headquarters are mostly empty – utilizing just 25 percent of their building capacity.  Many federal employees are continuing to work remotely.  Now, the DC City Government is asking President Biden to either force workers back to work or turn the properties over to the DC government for them to utilize in other ways.

The Global Week Ahead

July 16 - 23, 2023

Amidst the record-setting summer heat in the Northern Hemisphere, there are a lot of important geopolitical events this week. US-China relations look to be taking another positive step as US Climate Envoy John Kerry travels to Beijing – following the recent visits of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  Kerry will meet with his Chinese counterpart to discuss how the US and China can collaborate to make the upcoming COP27 meetings in the United Arab Emirates in November a success.  

Of more immediate concern is the deadline to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative comes to an end on Monday.  Russia has balked at renewing the agreement, which allows the flow of grain and fertilizer – mainly from Ukraine – via the Black Sea to Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Failure to renew the deal could create a massive global food security crisis.

The EU-CLAC (Community of Latin America and the Caribbean) summit will be held in Brussels. EU and CLAC leaders will seek to advance greater trade and economic relations and help advance an EU - Latin American free trade agreement with several South American nations – which is vital for the EU as they seek new markets to access critical minerals necessary for their long-term energy transition plans. 

Also this week, Spain holds snap elections that increasingly look to reject the Socialist Government. The significance of this is Spain has just taken over the Presidency of the European Union until the end of the year and could significantly impact the EU’s fiscal reform efforts and overall policy planning going forward.

On the global economic front, as G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads meet in India, markets will be watching China’s 2nd quarter GDP numbers and where the People’s Central Bank sets the MLF rate for clues as to just how weak the Chinese economy is and its impact on global trade. Most analysts are expecting weak numbers. The US will report retail sales and industrial production as the Federal Reserve goes into its blackout period ahead of the July 26 Open Markets Meeting. 

Finally, Turkey’s Central Bank, led by a newly installed. 

Japan will be reporting CPI numbers which the markets will show that inflation has peaked. The UK will also be reporting CPI numbers, and the expectation is price pressures will show signs of abating.  

Finally, Turkey’s newly installed central bank chief Hafize Gaye Erkan will be deciding where the countries rates will go after they raised rates in June to 25 percent in June.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, July 16, 2023

Global

• The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings continue in Gandhinagar, India.  US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will participate and hold a press conference today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry will travel to China for talks with his counterparts to discuss resuming joint-climate efforts. He will be meeting with his counterpart, Xie Zhenhau. This follows the visit last week of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the trip two weeks ago Secretary of State Antony Blinken made to Beijing.  Joint talks over climate were suspended after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made a high-profile visit to Taiwan.  Kerry will seek to find ways for the US and China to work together to implement the COP28 conference, which takes place in Dubai in November. 

• In New Hampshire, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is scheduled to participate in a “No Labels” event.  Many political observers see no Labels as a potential third political party campaign going into the 2024 campaigns.  Senator Manchin has been chatted up as a possible presidential candidate for No Labels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• American Samoa celebrates Manu’a Cession Day, a public holiday marking the day when the Islands of Manu decided to join the rest of American Samoa and become a US-held territory.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will travel to Tunisia for talks with Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed seeing to limit illegal migrant outflows from the country.  Between January and May this year, more than 50,000 illegal immigrants have traveled from Tunisia to the EU, many of them from Sudan and other Sub-Saharan nations using the country as a jumping-off point.  The Tunisian government has been trying to crack down on illegal immigrants but appears to be overwhelmed by the numbers that have flooded into the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida visits Saudi Arabia for talks with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salem.  Kishida will possibly also travel to the UAE and Qatar, all in an effort to bolster oil supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Monday, July 17, 2023

Global

• The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors continue in Gandhinagar, India.

• The UN Security Council will meet in the afternoon to discuss the situation in Ukraine.  UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly will chair the meeting (the UK is chairing the Security Council for the month of July).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The 3rd EU-CLAC (Community of Latin America and the Caribbean) summit takes place in Brussels through July 18.   The heads of state of the EU and CELAC (33 members) will attend the two-day event, which is co-chaired by European Council President Charles Michel and Ralph Gonsalves, the Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  This is the first EU-CLAC summit since 2015.  The 2017 summit was canceled due to concerns about the situation in Venezuela.  This summit is seen as particularly important because of the War in Ukraine – where the EU finds itself at odds with the positions of a number of Latin American countries, particularly Brazil – in how to deal with Russia.  Intertwined with this is the EU’s desire to have greater access to critical mineral mining in the region.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler gives a speech on artificial intelligence and securities regulation at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

• US New York Empire State Manufacturing Indies (July)

• Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (May), Wholesale Sales (May)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Korea celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China’s People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, GDP (Q2), Industrial Production (June), Retail Sales (June), Unemployment (June), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q2),

• Singapore Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire.  The Initiative, a U.N.brokered deal that Turkey assisted in negotiating,  guarantees the safe passage of Black Sea grain from Ukraine ports, was brokered last year.  Since then, more than 33 million tons of grains and fertilizers have been exported through the Black Sea and through the Bosphorus.  The agreement was initially arranged on a five-month basis, but Russia recently demanded it be changed to every 60 days.  Now, Moscow is arguing they see no need to extend the deal unless they are granted significant sanctions relief, including allowing the Russian Agricultural Bank to be reconnected to the SWIFT payment system and lifting of all sanctions placed on any company involved in food and fertilizer exports.  Failure to renew the deal and keep the flow of grain and fertilizer will likely have an enormous impact on food security in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia as well as food prices globally.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.  Lula is in Brussels for the EU-CELAC Summit.

• EU President Ursula van der Leyen will sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Argentine President Alberto Fernández on energy cooperation.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries ministers will hold informal meetings through July 18 in Vigo, Spain.  They will discuss ways to decarbonize the EU’s fisheries and aquaculture sector. 

In the UK, ASLEF train drivers go on strike for a week over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the 9th ECB conference on central, eastern, and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries.  She will be speaking on the "Changing geopolitical landscape – economic implications for central, eastern and south-eastern Europe" at the event being held at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane chairs and speak at Session 1, "Macroeconomic policy challenges amid a changing geopolitical landscape," at the 9th ECB conference on central, eastern, and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries at the ECB, Frankfurt, Germany.

• Italy Inflation (June), CPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan begins a three-day trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.  The purpose of the trip is to boost bilateral trade and investments.  Turkey has set a public goal of boosting investments in the Gulf Region by $25 billion in the next few years, focusing on defense, energy, and infrastructure.

• Algeria’s President Abelmadjid Tebboune makes a state visit to China through July 21.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping and other senior officials to discuss bilateral trade and security issues.

• Israel is bracing for another set of nationwide protests over the judicial reform bill moving through the Knesset.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Budget Balance

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Botswana celebrates President’s Day, a national holiday celebrating the role of the president.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Global

• The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors conclude in Gandhinagar, India. 

• The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on maintaining international peace and security.  UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will again chair the session.

• The Islamic New Year begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) cohosts with the Government of Panama at the Public-Private Partnerships forum in Panama City.  Government officials and private sector representatives from 25 countries will gather to focus on investment in sanitation, energy, transportation, and telecommunications.  The IDB estimates that by 2030, Latin America and the Caribbean need $2.2 trillion in new investments.

• The Aspen Security Forum begins in Colorado. The three-day conference will include speeches by a number of senior US, UK, and other foreign officials. 

• Uruguay celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks on “Fair Lending Practices” At the National Fair Housing Alliance 2023 National Conference, Washington, D.C.

• US Retail Sales (June), Redbook (July 15), Industrial Production (June), Manufacturing Production (June), Capacity Utilization (June), Business Inventories (May), NAHB Housing Market Index (July)

• Canada Inflation (June), CPI (June), Raw Materials Prices (June), PPI (June)

• Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (May)

• Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen signs a Memorandum of Understanding with Luis Lacalle Pou, President of Uruguay, on energy cooperation.  Later, she will sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Gabriel Boric, President of Chile, on a Strategic Partnership on Sustainable Raw Materials Value Chains cooperation.

• The UK Ministry of Defense will publish its updated Integrated Review Command Paper.  Last updated in 2021, the paper defines the government’s vision for the UK’s role in the world for the next decade, both from a foreign policy, defense, security, and development perspective.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Italy Construction Output (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel’s President Isaac Herzog will meet with President Biden to discuss how to deepen Israel’s regional integration as well as Russia’s growing military relationship with Iran.   He will also address a joint session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Unions and left-wing political groups in Peru are expected to march on Lima.  They are united in their demand for President Boluarte to resign and for Congress to shut down.   They also want a new constitution to be written.  In response, the government has declared a state of emergency.

• Nicaragua celebrates FSLN Revolution Day – also known as Sandinista Revolution Day – a national holiday celebrating the rise of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSL) that launched an armed resistance to the Somoza regime in the 1970s.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA Housing Starts (June), Building Permits (June), Mortgage Indexes (July 14)

• Canada Housing Starts (June)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (June), Leading Indicators (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Thailand’s Parliament will re-vote who will be the next Prime Minister.  Last week, the Parliament failed to pick a Prime Minister after the pro-democracy candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, did not get a majority of votes.  If they fail to reach a solution, another vote will be held on July 21.

• Myanmar celebrates Martyr’s Day, commemorating those who led the independence movement in 1947.

• In South Korea, the Boryeong Mud Festival begins.   The seven-day event, which first began in 1998, is the biggest summer festival in South Korea.  It is compared to Brazil’s Rio Carnival and Spain’s La Tomatina and consists of a wide variety of “survival mud games,” mud baths, and other contests. (who doesn’t love playing in the mud?)

Economic Reports/Events –

• The Asian Development Bank releases its updated economic growth forecasts.  It will offer growth and inflation outlooks for all 31 member state economies in Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan).

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Bosnia and Herzegovina Stabilization and Association Council meets in Brussels.  Bosnia and Herzegovina applied for EU membership in 2016 and was granted EU candidate status in 2022 on the condition the country take recommended steps to fight corruption and organized crime, migration management, and the overall rule of law.  This meeting will be an update and assessment of their progress.

• The World Court will hear a request from Canada and the Netherlands asking the Court to order Syria to cease all acts of torture and arbitrary detention.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on quantitative tightening at the Money Macro and Finance Society in London.

• Eurozone Inflation (June), CPI (June), Construction Output (May), New Car Registrations (June)

• UK Inflation (June), Retail Prices (June), PPI (June)

• Russia PPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Saudi Arabia hosts the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Central Asia Summit in Jeddah.  Leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Kenya's opposition will hold their third set of anti-tax protests in Nairobi.  Previous protests have resulted in extensive violence and deaths as Police sought to repel them from advancing down the capitol’s main highway.  Keny’s High Court has suspended recently passed tax hikes, but the government moved to raise the prices of gasoline anyway. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation (June), Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 20, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council will meet to be updated on the 1701 Report (this references the UN Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006,  which calls for the full cessation of hostilities and the deployment of Lebanese forces to South Lebanon, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the country).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to Vietnam. She will meet with State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Thi Hong.  She will later meet with Prime Minister Pham Ninh Chinh and Finance Minister Ho Duc Phoc. She meets later with Communist Party of Vietnam Central Economic Commission Chair Tran Tuan Anh.

• Colombia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (July), Philly Fed Business Conditions (July), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July), Philly Fed New Orders (July), Initial Jobless Claims (July 15), Existing Home Sales (June), CB Leading Index (June)

• Mexico Retail Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Loan Prime Rate (1Y & 5Y)

• Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Australia Unemployment (June)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, Parliamentary by-elections will be held in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels to discuss the Ukraine War, exchange views on Turkey, and general issues of economic security.

• The EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers will hold informal meetings in Madrid, Spain, through July 21.  They will focus on progress toward the Migration and Asylum Pact and on stepping up the fight against drug trafficking and organized crime. 

• In the UK, hospital consultants, 20,000 RMT rail workers as well as BBC England journalists all go on strike.  The rail workers will be on strike through the weekend.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Current Account (May), Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

• Germany PPI (June)

• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)

• France Business Confidence (July)

• Spain Balance of Trade (May)

• Italy Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Central Government Debt (June), FX Reserves (July 14)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (May)

• Ghana PPI (June)

Friday, July 21, 2023

Global

• The G20 Labor and Employment Ministers meet in Indore, India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Canada Retail Sales (May), New Housing Price Index (June), Manufacturing Sales (June)

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (July)

• Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the country’s top securities regulator, is holding a special symposium for some of the world’s biggest investors in a bid to encourage greater foreign investment.  The meeting will focus on current conditions many of the firms are facing in China and as seen as an extraordinary measure to encourage greater confidence in the Chinese markets.

• Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe visits India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  Wickremesinghe will be looking for ways to improve economic relations with India in a bid to help strengthen the weak Sri Lankan economy.

• Guam celebrates Liberation Day, celebrating when US Forces liberated the island from Japan in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation (June)

• South Korea PPI (June)

• Singapore URA Property Index (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in Brussels, Belgium.  The EU is attempting to broker a peace agreement between the two countries.

• Belgium celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK Retail Sales (June), Public Sector Borrowing (June)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eswatini Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, July 22, 2023

Global

• The G20 Energy Ministers meet in Goa, India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodia holds national elections.  All 125 National Assembly seats are up for election for a five-year term.  Currently, all 125 seats are held by the Cambodian People’s Party.  The opposition FUNCINPEC Party and Khmer National United Party hold none.

• Japan's restrictions on semiconductor sales to China go into effect.  In January, Japan placed restrictive controls on the sale of all chipmaking tools to China and placed restrictions on the export of 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. In so doing, Japan formally joins the US and the Netherlands in implementing curbs.

Economic Reports/Events –

•  NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Spain holds general elections. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez – leader of the Spanish Socialists Workers’ Party (PSOE) – is facing a tough challenge from center-right Popular Party candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo who is leading in the polls.  Sánchez called for early elections, and supporters and election observers are suggesting he may have made a mistake as voter sentiment is angry right now. The elections come only a few weeks after Spain assumed the presidency of the EU (until December 31st). 

Economic Reports/Events –

•  NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

July 14 - 16, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Indo-Pacific 

• “Scientific and Technological Flows Between the United States and China”   Rand Corporation

  This study points out that scientific and technological dominance — the price of increasingly tough competition between the US and China — has been recognized as a national priority by high-level leadership from both countries. This dominance can be attained in two primary ways: A country can rely on its domestic scientific and technology innovation resources and activities, or it can leverage foreign scientific and technological assets. The researchers focused on the second approach for this study; in this report, they describe the benefits and liabilities associated with U.S.-Chinese scientific research collaboration. Specifically, the researchers investigated three types of flows between the United States and China: the inflow of U.S. technology inputs into Chinese military technology, the bilateral movement of scientific researchers between the United States and China, and scientific collaboration between researchers based in the United States and those based in China.

• “The Southeast Asia Aid Map”   The Lowy Institute (Australia)

  This interactive database tracks and maps aid and development finance flows from the international community to Southeast Asia, which is one of the most dynamic and fast-growing regions in the world. The research covers Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor‑Leste, and Vietnam, with complete data from 2015 to 2021.  The goal of this research project is to improve aid efficiency in Southeast Asia through better transparency and coordination of development efforts.  This project has collected information from more than 100,000 projects via more than 97 development partners in the region.

• “Critical Minerals Strategy 2023-2030”  Australian Department of Industry, Science, and Resources

  Australia is one of the most mineral-rich nations in the world, and they possess a number of “critical minerals” necessary to help achieve Net Zero emissions there and globally.  Australia is the largest producer of Lithium, the third-largest producer of Cobalt, and fourth largest producer of rare earths.   The Australian Government has just released this comprehensive strategy for not only how they will mine these critical minerals but also sell and export them – which is very important for global markets to understand.

Europe/Eurasia

•    “The Ukrainian War Economy”   Bruegel

  Ukraine has been subject to full-scale Russian aggression since 24 February 2022, with major implications for Ukraine’s economic performance and economic management. As a result of war damages and territorial losses, Ukraine’s real GDP contracted by about 30 percent in 2022. Ukraine also experienced severe balance-of-payments and budget tensions in the first months of the war. Intensification of foreign financial aid from the second half of 2022 helped to achieve relative macroeconomic stability in the first half of 2023. The prospects of the Ukrainian economy depend on the length of the war, associated damages, and the size of external financial aid.

Americas

• “Electoral College and Election Fraud”   University of Chicago Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper

• Abstract: One frequently overlooked aspect of the U.S.-style electoral college system is that it discourages election fraud. In a presidential election based on the popular vote, competing political parties are motivated to manipulate votes in areas where they hold the most significant influence, such as states where they control local executive offices, legislatures, and the judiciary. However, with the electoral college system in place, the incentives for fraud shift to swing states where the local government is politically divided, and fraud is, therefore, more difficult and costly. Our theoretical model elucidates why the electoral college system provides more effective protection against election fraud compared to the popular vote system. While polarization makes fraud more likely, it does not affect the superiority of the electoral college system.

• “Electric Vehicles for Everyone? The Impossible Dream”   Manhattan Institute

  A dozen U.S. states, from California to New York, have joined dozens of countries, from Ireland to Spain, with plans to ban the sale of new cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE), many prohibitions taking effect within a decade. Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in a feat of regulatory legerdemain, has proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively force automakers to shift to producing mainly electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032.  This is all to ensure that so-called zero-emission EVs play a central role in radically cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. But, as this report illustrates: 

• No one knows how much, if at all, CO2 emissions will decline as EV use rises. Every claim for EVs reducing emissions is a rough estimate or an outright guess based on averages, approximations, or aspirations. The variables and uncertainties in emissions from energy-intensive mining and processing of minerals used to make EV batteries are a big wild card in the emissions calculus. Those emissions substantially offset reductions from avoiding gasoline, and as the demand for battery minerals explodes, the net reductions will shrink, may vanish, and could even lead to a net increase in emissions. Similar emissions uncertainties are associated with producing the power for EV charging stations.

• No one knows when or whether EVs will reach economic parity with the cars that most people drive. An EV’s higher price is dominated by the costs of the critical materials that are needed to build it and is thus dependent on guesses about the future of mining and minerals industries, which are mainly in foreign countries. The facts also show that, for the majority of drivers, there’s no visibility for when, if ever, EVs will reach parity in cost and fueling convenience, regardless of subsidies.

• “Did Latin America’s Progressives Become Too “Woke”?”   Americas Quarterly

  After many countries saw progressive victories on abortion and other issues, a  conservative backlash is gaining strength in the region. In Chile, the electorate rounding rejected a new constitution in September 2022; In Argentina, the far-right libertarian candidate for president, Javier Milei, has been either leading in polls.  And in other Latin countries, conservative parties are battling back and gaining political strength.

Graphs of the Week

Africa, Oceania Are Seeing a Rise in Hunger Since the Pandemic as the Risk of Russia Pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative Rises

According to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the percentage of people in Africa and greater Oceania who are hungry has risen by 19.7 percent and 7 percent, respectively, since the COVID Pandemic ended.   This is particularly important and troublesome now as the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire on July 17, and Russia is saying it “sees no reason to continue it.”  Moreover, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has significantly expanded its dominance of wheat production over Ukraine, bolstering its hold on the world’s wheat trade.

The following four charts show:

1. The increase in hunger in Africa and Oceana

2. The growth rate and projections of Russia’s dominance in wheat growth over Ukraine

3. Africa’s dependence on Russia and Ukraine for wheat

4. Which countries are the largest wheat exporters globally

US Regulatory Week Ahead

July 17 - 21, 2023

It is a relatively quiet next week in the US regulatory world.  But, notably, Federal Reserve Director of the Division of Supervision and Regulation Michael Gibson will testify before the House Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy on “Climate Risk: Are Financial Regulators Politically Independent?”  It is not often you see Gibson speak in public, and even rarer to see him testify in front of Congress.

Also, SEC Chair Gary Gensler gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Regulation (likely laying out how he sees the SEC engaging in regulating AI).  This speech will be closely watched as much by the Tech world as by Wall Street for clues on how the US government intends to deal with the rise of AI. 

Below is what else is happening next week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

• July 18, 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance."

•  July 18, 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee hold a hearing on "Climate-Risk: Are Financial Regulators Politically Independent?"  Michael Gibson, Director, Division of Supervision and Regulation, Federal Reserve, will testify.  You can watch HERE.

• July 18, 2023 – 2:00 p.m.: The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Potential Consequences of FinCEN's (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) Beneficial Ownership Rulemaking."

• July 19, 2023 – 2:45 p.m.: The Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A Review of the FY2024 Budget for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."

U.S. Financial Regulatory Meetings

• July 17, 2023 – 9:00 a.m.:  The Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee on topics related to U.S. Treasury market reforms, swap block thresholds, and tokenization of assets.

•   July 18, 2023 – Noon: Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting of the Technology Advisory Committee to discuss digital assets, blockchain technology, cybersecurity, and emerging and evolving technologies.

• July 19, 2023 – 9:00 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting of the Agricultural Advisory Committee on the agricultural economy, including geopolitical and sustainability issues, as well as recent developments in the agricultural derivatives markets.

U.S. Regulatory Speeches/International and Domestic Events

• ·July 13 – 21, 2023: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels Gandhinagar, India to participate in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings.  From there, she will travel to Hanoi, Vietnam, for bilateral engagements. 

• July 18, 2023 – 9:15 a.m.: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks on “Fair Lending Practices” At the National Fair Housing Alliance 2023 National Conference, Washington, D.C.

• July 17, 2023 – Noon: The National Press Club holds a Newsmaker Luncheon address with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler on artificial intelligence and securities regulation. You can watch his speech HERE.

Washington Think Tank Events Focused

on Financial Services

• July 17, 2023 – 9:15 a.m.:  The Atlantic Council hosts a virtual discussion on “New Rules for Stablecoins and the Future of Payments”.  Representative French Hill (R-Arkansas), who chairs the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion, will speak.

• July 18, 2023 – 9:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "How to Think About Systemic Cyber Risk in Financial Services."

• July 18 & 19, 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The Brookings Institution holds its 12th annual Municipal Finance Conference on "municipal capital markets and state and local fiscal issues."

• July 19, 2023 – 2:00 p.m.:  The Center for a New American Security holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Illicit Finance in the Digital Age."

• July 19, 2023 – 3:00 p.m.: The Wilson Center's Latin America Program holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 3 p.m., on "Reforming the Multilateral Development Banks for Global Structural Challenges in a Post-Pandemic World."

• July 20, 2023 – 9:00 a.m.: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a discussion on "Swing and a Miss: The SEC's Swing Pricing Proposal Is a Strike

The Global Week Ahead

July 9 - 16, 2023

The world marked the 500 days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine yesterday.  Since then, the geopolitical and geo-economic world has changed considerably.  And this coming week will highlight how much it has changed as the NATO Leaders Summit convenes in Vilnius, Lithuania.  The leaders are expected to bolster their commitment to supporting Ukraine militarily and financially and discuss a path for Ukraine to join NATO.  We will be watching closely to see if President Biden meets with Turkish President Recep Erdogan to help seal an agreement to allow Sweden to join NATO.  Also, during the Summit, the leaders of the NATO nations will approve a new defense strategy for the first time since the end of the Cold War.

Also happening at the end of next week will be US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry traveling to Beijing for the first set of talks in over a year, another indication of improving relations between the US and China.  Kerry's trip follows the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

On the economic radar screen this week, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Gandhinagar, India, through July 16.  One of the key issues they intend to address is food and fertilizer security issues.  This will be particularly important as the Black Sea Initiative, overseen by the United Nations and allowing critical agricultural and fertilizer exports to flow from Ukraine and Russia, expires on July 17.  Russia is threatening to withdraw from the agreement unless certain sanctions are lifted.  As of this writing, there are unconfirmed reports Turkey – who helped broker the deal – has said they may provide Naval escorts for Ukrainian shipments if Russia pulls out, which would be seen as a significant political blow to Russian President Putin's strategy.

Also, this week, we will watch a flurry of important reports in the US, EU, and China.  In the US, we will watch the latest CPI report and China's inflation numbers and trade figures.   The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book, while the Bank of England will release its financial stability report.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 9, 2023

Global

·       Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will leave to travel to London to meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and King Charles III, Lithuania for the NATO summit, and Finland for a U.S.-Nordic Leaders’ summit.

·       Senior officials from the US Trade Representative and US Commerce Department will travel to Busan, South Korea, for the fourth negotiating round of the Ind-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) through July 15. 

·       Today is Independence Day in Argentina, marking the day in 1816 when the Congress of Tucumán declared the independence of the United Provinces of South America, thus creating Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare will travel to China for a week-long series of meetings.  The Solomon Islands, home to about 700,000 people, has become a focal point of China-U.S. rivalry in the Pacific. Under Sogavare, it switched its diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taiwan in 2019 and signed a secretive security pact with China last year, alarming the United States and allies such as Australia. 

·       Uzbekistan holds presidential elections.

·       Palau celebrates Constitution Day, marking the day the country decided not to join the rest of Micronesia and instead adopted its own Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Berlin for talks on trade and mutual security and overall Indo-Pacific security policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Leaders’ Summit will be held in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, July 10, 2023

Global

·       The Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals Report 2023: Special Edition will be released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress comes back into session after being out the last two weeks for home business and Independence Day vacation.

·       The Bahamas celebrates Independence Day, marking the date the country won its independence from the UK in 1973.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank capitalization rules at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Brookings Institution Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks virtually on the economic and policy outlook before the University of California, San Diego 2023 Economics Roundtable Lecture Series: "An Update from the Federal Reserve with Loretta Mester."

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in the "National and Metro Atlanta Economies" armchair conversation before the Cobb Chamber of Commerce Marquee Monday.

·       US Wholesale Inventories (May), Consumer Inflation Expectations (June), Consumer Credit Change (May)

·       Canada Building Permits (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Ministerial meeting and the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia.  Among the topics to be discussed will be security in the Korean Peninsula.  This is one of the few international or regional forums where North Korea participates, as does the US, Russia, China, and the EU.

·       Today is Political Flag Day in Mongolia, the main state holiday of the nation. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (June), PPI (June), Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Japan Current Account (May), Banking Lending (June), Eco Watchers Survey (June)

·       Australia Building Permits (May)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hosts a meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, between Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson seeking to finalize a deal where Turkey approves Sweden’s membership in NATO in advance of this week’s NATO Summit. 

·       President Joe Biden meets with King Charles II at Buckingham Palace in London and then with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London.  Among the issues Biden is expected to discuss with Sunak is a potential US-UK Free Trade Agreement.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will hold talks with her Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi in advance of the EU-Japan Summit in Brussels later this week.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Gulf Cooperation Council as part of the Gulf-Russian strategic dialogue in Moscow.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the EU’s long-term budget.

·       The EU Environment ministers hold informal meetings through July 11 in Valladolid, Spain.   They will discuss biodiversity, soil, and water and how to conduct joint management of these issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will give speeches at The annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner being held at the Mansion House in London.

·       UK BRC Retails Sales Monitor (June)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (May

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)

·       Tanzania Inflation (June)

·       Rwanda Inflation (June)

Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Global

·       The International Energy Agency will release its 2023 Critical Minerals Market Review.

·       The UN Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates virtually in moderated a discussion on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a National Association of Business Economics.

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (June), Redbook (July 8), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (July)

·       Brazil Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to Japan for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machine Tools Orders (June)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (July), NAB Business Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2023 NATO Summit takes place in Vilnius, Lithuania.  Leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine and, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, will approve a new defense plan while encouraging increased defense spending by all members.  A number of leaders from strategic allied nations who are not NATO members are expected to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. 

·       EU energy ministers hold an informal set of meetings through July 12 in Valladolid, Spain. They are expected to discuss the integration and digitalization of internal energy markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Germany Inflation (June), CPI (June), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       UK Unemployment (May)

·       Italy Industrial Production (May)

·       Russia Current Account (Q2)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

·       Turkey Current Account (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US – Africa Business Summit begins and runs through July 14 in Gaborone, Botswana.  A number of leading US CEOs and US Government officials will be in attendance.

·       African trade ministers will gather to meet for the 54th African Trade Ministers Meeting under the auspices of the African Continental Free Trade Area in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

·       Namibia Inflation (June)

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Global

·       The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization will launch its new State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report.

·       The UN Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on Colombia.   

·       The UN will hold a hybrid launch of the UN-Energy Policy Brief on a Global Roadmap for the Just and Inclusive Clean Cooking Transition. This event is being organized by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank in collaboration with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book release (2:00 p.m.)

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in "Banking Solvency and Monetary Policy" panel before the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute: Macro, Money and Financial Frictions” in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on "FedNow" before a session on Instant Payment Systems before the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute: Macro, Money and Financial Frictions," in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       White House National Economic Director Lael Brainard will give a speech at the Economic Club of New York, Harvard Club, New York.

·       Bank of Canada holds policy interest rate meeting.  Afterward, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers hold a press conference.

·       US Inflation (June), CPI (June), MBA Mortgage Indexes (July 7), WASDE Report

·       Mexico Industrial Production (May)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kiribati celebrates National Day, marking the date the nation located in the central Pacific Ocean was granted its independence by the UK.  Kiribati is part of the Pacific Island known as Micronesia and is where the famous World War II battle of the Tarawa Atoll took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds Monetary Policy Review.

·       Australian Reserve Bank Governor Lowe will speak on the “Reserve Bank Review and Monetary Policy.”

·       China New Yuan Loans (June), Outstanding Loan Growth (June), Total Social Financing (June), M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (May), PPI (June)

·       India Inflation (June), Manufacturing Production (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England publishes its Financial Stability Report.

·       ECB Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel at the NBER conference "Summer Institute 2023 - Macro, Money and Financial Frictions" in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. 

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (June)

·       Spain CPI (June)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (May), Inflation (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation (June)

Thursday, July 13, 2023

Global

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti(BINUH). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in Sudan.      

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden meets with the Prime Ministers of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland at the US-Nordic Leaders’ Summit in Helsinki.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the Economic Outlook At the Money Marketeers Speech, New York, N.Y.

·       US PPI (June), Jobless Claims (July 8), Monthly Budget Statement (June)

·       Argentina Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand votes to approve a new prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       South Korea Reserve Bank Inflation Decision, Export & Import Prices (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation (July)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.  Modi has been invited as the Guest of Honor at the Bastille Day Parade being held on July 14 – a rare exception as France does not invite foreign dignitaries every year to celebrate the holiday and Parade.  The event will also mark the 25th anniversary of the French-Indian Strategic Partnership.  To further celebrate the event, Indian soldiers will march in the parade.  Defense cooperation will be a major theme of the visit.  Additionally, a large group of Indian CEOs will accompany Modi on the trip.

·       The EU-Japan Summit takes place in Brussels through July 14.  The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, representing the EU, will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.  They are expected to discuss international and regional developments – including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine – China, and the Indo-Pacific, cooperation on security issues, and economic security.

·       The EU Social Affairs ministers will hold informal meetings through July 14 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, marking the day when the Berlin Congress recognized the country as an independent state in 1878.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. 

·       ECB release minutes of June meeting.

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (May)

·       Germany Current Account (May)

·       UK GDP (May), Manufacturing Production (May), Goods Trade Balance (May), Industrial Production (May), Balance of Trade (May), Construction Output (May), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

·       France Inflation (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (May), FX Reserves (July 7)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (May), Gold Production (May) 

Friday, July 14, 2023

Global

·       The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Gandhinagar, India, through July 16.  One of the key issues they intend to address is food and fertilizer security issues.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: sexual violence in conflict. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (July), Import Prices/Export Prices (June)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), New Motor Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June 30)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launches the Chandrayaan-3, a lunar mission to study aspects of the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Industrial Production (May), Capacity Utilization (May)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June),  WPI Manufacturing (June), WPI Fuel (June), WPI Inflation (June), WPI Food Index (June)

·       Singapore GDP (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts his annual summer press conference to discuss domestic and foreign policy issues in Berlin.

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Markets Council (Ecofin) will meet in Brussels. ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates on behalf of the ECB.   They are expected to discuss the long-term EU budget 2021-2027 and recovery package, EU solidarity with and financial support for Ukraine, and the EU response to Russia’s invasion.   

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (May)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Botswana Inflation (June)

Saturday, July 15, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (June), Auto Production (June), FDI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Democracy and National Unity Day, a national holiday commemorating the failed coup attempt in 2016.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, July 16, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry will travel to China for talks with his counterparts to discuss resuming joint-climate efforts.  This follows the visit last week of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the trip two weeks ago Secretary of State Antony Blinken made to Beijing.  Joint talks over climate were suspended after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made a high-profile visit to Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       American Samoa celebrates Manu’a Cession Day, a public holiday marking the day when the Islands of Manu decided to join the rest of American Samoa and become a US-held territory.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida visits Saudi Arabia for talks with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salem.  Kishida will possibly also travel to the UAE and Qatar, all in an effort to bolster oil supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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Recommended Weekend Reading

July 7 - 9, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

·       “Saudi First” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

This new paper examines how Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has fought back against boycotts and criticism following the brutal killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.  And along the way, Saudi GDP grew at a record 8.7 %, the highest of any G-20 nation. Oil prices remained high and non-oil revenue grew at 5.4%, well ahead of the 1.9% in 2016 before the launch of Vision 2030 reforms to try to wean the country off oil. Female participation in the Saudi labor force rose to 37%, surpassing the government goal of 30% by 2030. And unemployment which peaked at 14.9% in 2020, fell to 8% last year.  Moreover, the Kingdom’s oil company, Saudi Aramco, recorded a $161 billion profit in 2022, the largest profit ever produced by a publicly listed company anywhere. And for the first time in nearly a decade, the government boasted a budget surplus of $27.68 billion.  But MBS has also made significant changes in foreign and defense policy for the Kingdom, which could present significant changes for the region and the world.

·       “Shaky China: Five scenarios for Xi Jinping’s third term”   Mercator Institute for China Studies

In March 2023, Xi Jinping sealed a third term in power, heading both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese state. In “Xi III,” China is entering a phase of increasing uncertainty. Three trends that shaped China in Xi’s first and second terms will remain particularly relevant: slower growth, external pressure, and increased centralization of power. Whatever path China takes will have serious implications for its own people and the rest of the world.

This study lays out five scenarios for China’s path over the coming years in order to help formulate strategic responses. The baseline scenario is a “Shaky China”, an unstable ‘status quo’ scenario, in which China’s economy, politics, and engagement with the world follow the trends seen at the outset of Xi’s third term in office. Significant changes in some of the underlying factors could create pathways to cross over into one of four more extreme scenarios detailed in the report.

·       “Understanding China’s Gallium Sanctions”   Center for Strategic and International Studies

On July 3, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose restrictions on the export of gallium and germanium for reasons of national security. The move, widely seen as a response to U.S. restrictions on technology sales and transfers to China, targets key elements within the Department of Defense’s (DOD) supply chain. The announcement has sparked renewed concern in the United States about its dependence on critical mineral imports from China. However, current and future production capacities in Japan, Germany, and Australia undermine the power of this most recent Chinese economic swipe at the United States.  This note answers why the sanctions matter and, more importantly, why does gallium nitride matter?

·       “Can India Rupture the Semiconductor Market?”  National Interest

In June 2023, India announced its decision to reopen the application process for businesses interested in constructing new semiconductor fabrication plants (commonly called fabs). The process will be undertaken by a new government agency, the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), within the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology (MeitY).  But a critical component of India becoming a major player in the semiconductor industry is reliance on Taiwan – making the risk of China potentially invading the island of serious concern to Indian Prime Minister Modi.

·       “The Evolution of Working from Home” Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

Working from home rose five-fold from 2019 to 2023, with 40% of US employees now working remotely at least one day a week. The productivity of remote work depends critically on the mode. Fully remote work is associated with about 10% lower productivity than fully in-person work. Challenges with communicating remotely, barriers to mentoring, building culture, and issues with self-motivation appear to be factors. But fully remote work can generate even larger cost reductions from space savings and global hiring, making it a popular option for firms. Hybrid working appears to have no impact on productivity but is also popular with firms because it improves employee recruitment and retention. Looking ahead, we predict working from home will continue to grow because of the expansion in research and development into new technologies to improve remote working. Hence, the pandemic generated both a one-off jump and a longer-run growth acceleration in working from home. 

Graph of the Week

Russia’s Shrunken War Machine 

Much has been written – and Twitter is full of videos testifying to – the significant damage done to Russia’s military as a result of invading Ukraine.  But by how much?  Bloomberg published a graph this week showing the massive decline of key elements of Russia’s army.  This comes as other reports are circulating that Ukraine may actually have more tanks than Russia. And it is estimated at least 260,000 Russian troops have been killed so far in the conflict.  Regardless, the once mighty Russian Army has been dealt a serious – and likely long-term – setback:

The Global Week Ahead

July 2 - 9, 2023

Happy Independence Day from Washington, D.C.  It is exceptionally quiet here.  Congress was out of session last week and will be out this week.  Seemingly all of the Nation’s Capital has fled to the beaches or the mountains.  But then again, so has most of Wall Street and the rest of Corporate America, as everyone seems to be taking Monday off, too.  But there is still plenty going on around the world this week.

First, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Beijing Wednesday.  It would be a quick and significant follow-up to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit two weeks ago.  Her meetings with Chinese officials will cover many issues, most importantly, potential sanctions relief for some senior Chinese officials and discussions with China on how to work together to restructure debt in several emerging markets struggling with global conditions and the weight of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative debt.  While no significant breakthroughs are expected, it will be seen by markets as another solid building block in stabilizing the US-China relationship.

Also in Asia this week, India will virtually chair the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Leaders’ Summit.  China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – have been invited.  In addition, Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia have been invited in their role as Observer States.  Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to give a speech.  The SCO is an important gauge of the state of political and diplomatic relations in greater Eurasia – which, statistically, includes 40 percent of the world’s population.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. jobs report and the Fed’s FOMC minutes, released Wednesday.   The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey and this week’s E.U. inflation figures top the list of reports to watch coming out of the E.U.  Markets will also be watching OPEC’s 8th International Seminar to get a sense of where oil pricing might be headed.  And in Asia, China’s Caixin PMIs are out Monday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week - please let us know if you have any questions:

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron has canceled his scheduled three-day state visit to Germany due to a wave of violence across Paris due to the killing of a teenager of North African descent.

·       Spain takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union.  They hold the chair until December 31, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, July 3, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina will host a summit for leaders of the Mercosur customs union. The Presidency of the organization will be passed to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva (Lula), who is expected to relaunch Mercosur as a “key instrument” of the international economic policy of its member states. 

·       CARICOM’s(the Caribbean Community) 45th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government is held in Trinidad.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the group.

·       A US Federal Court could rule as soon as today on the $75 billion Microsoft-Activision acquisition.  A negative ruling would likely scuttle the deal, which the Federal Trade Commission is asking of the Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), ISM Manufacturing PMIs (June), Construction Spending (May)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (June), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), Balance of Trade (June), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s parliament will meet to begin choosing a new prime minister per a royal decree by the King.  The country’s election commission certified the winners of the elections – all 500 seats in the lower house who have to elect a speaker and two deputy speakers.  Once they have done that, a joint session with the senate will be called to choose the new prime minister. The most likely candidate is Pita Limjaroenrat, a Harvard-trained businessman who leads the Move Forward Party and helped pull off a stunning upset victory in May.

·       Indonesian President Joko Widodo travels to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the 8th annual Australia-Indonesia Leaders meeting. They will discuss ways to increase trade and work mutually on climate issues.

·       Okinawa Governor Denny. Tamaki visits China for four days.  Tamaki is leading a delegation of members of the Japan International Trade Promotion Association.  The significance of this is that Chinese President Xi last month caused a stir while visiting a museum in Beijing that included a section on Okinawa and then commenting that the island is “Ryuku” – essentially, that the island is historically once part of China prior to being annexed by Japan in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Japan Tankan Manufacturing Indexes (Q2)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), Tourist Arrivals (May), Inflation Rate (June)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (June), Commodity Prices (June), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June), Building Permits May), Home Loans (May), Investment Lending for Homes (May), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June), Private House Approvals (May), Building Permits (May)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q2), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation (June), Wholesale Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       France Budget Balance (May), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       Norway DN Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)

·       Sweden Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation (June), CPI (June), Procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Meeting Summary, Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June), Auto Sales (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa50 Infra for Africa Forum and General Shareholders Meeting is held in Février, Lomé.   The event is hosted by the African Development Bank.

·       Zambia observes Heroes’ Day, honoring those who fought for the country’s independence which was won in 1964.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PIM (June), New Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PIMI (June)

·       Angola FX Reserves (June)

Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       It is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday.  Federal and state governments are closed, as are banks and financial markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June), Industrial Production (May)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually with India chairing.  China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – have been invited. In addition, Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia have been invited in their role as Observer States. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to give a speech.

·       The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, will visit Japan through July 7 regarding the Fukushima wastewater release plan.  It is expected the Japanese government is likely to release the plan once following the visit.

·       The Federated States of Micronesia hold a constitutional referendum on a number of issues ranging from the threshold going forward on percentages needed to make constitutional changes, citizenship, revenue derived from fishing license fees, seabed mining, and the establishment of an Independent Prosecutors Office.

·       The Philippines observes Republic Day – which is also called Philippine-American Friendship Day – celebrating the Treaty of Manila, which was signed in 1946, giving the country its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation (June), CPI (June), FX Reserves (June)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Business Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, to discuss ongoing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Spain Unemployment (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Romania PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (June)

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (June), GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The inaugural African Voluntary Carbon Credits Market Forum is held in Zimbabwe. The aim of the meeting is to create a pan-African Register of Carbon Credits. To be traded on the Victoria Stock Exchange.

·       Today is Rwanda Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when the country was liberated from the control of the dictatorship of Juvénal Habyarimana in 1994.

·       Zambia celebrates Unity Day (one day after celebrating Hero’s Day), a national holiday promoting unity among the 70+ ethnic groups that make up the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya PMI (June)

·       Ghana PMI (June)

·       South Africa PMI (June)

Wednesday, July 5, 2023 

Global

·       OPEC holds its 8th International Seminar through July 6. 

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate in connection with “How to prevent and respond to grave violations against children in armed conflict” under the agenda item “Children and armed conflict.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to be briefed and discuss the situation in Venezuela.

·       William O'Neill, the UN’s Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Haiti, will hold a hybrid briefing on his recent visit to Haiti at the United Nations.

· The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) will release the World Investment Report 2023, "Investing in sustainable energy for all"”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen with be in Beijing to meet with senior officials to discuss a multitude of issues.  She will also meet with the heads of US companies operating in China to discuss trade issues.

·       Venezuela technically celebrates its Independence Day, marking when it became the first independent state in South America in 1821.  Of course, it is not under the domain of a dictatorship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams will speak at the Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association at the New York Fed.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Open Markets Minutes, MBA Mortgage Market Index (June 30), Redbook (July 1), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (July), Factory Orders (May), LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

·       Brazil S&P Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes, Exports (May), PPI (June)

·       Uruguay Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan celebrates Capital City Day, a national holiday in honor of the city, Nur-Sultan, being named the new capital (it was previously Almaty).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       India S&P Global Composite & Global Services PMIs (June)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (June), Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (June)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Retail Sales (May), Judo Bank Services & Bank Composite PMIs (June), Ai Group Industry Index (June), Ai Group Construction Index (June), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Philippines Inflation (June)

·       Thailand Inflation (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles and Queen Camilla will be crowned for a second time at a ceremony in Scotland known as the Service of Dedication and Thanksgiving.

·       In England, schoolteachers in the National Education Union resume strike action over pay, with another strike planned for Friday.

·       Armenia celebrates Constitution Day, marking the adoption of its post-Soviet constitution being adopted in 1994.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June), PPI (May)

·       France Industrial Production (May), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (June), New Car Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Spain Industrial Policy (May), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (June), Unemployment (June)

·       Norway House Price Index (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       Sweden Services PMI (June)

·       Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Serbia PPI (June)

·       Hungary Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Global Services PMIs (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when the country won its independence from France in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation (June), PPI (June), CPI (June), FX Reserves (June 23), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (June)

·       Israel Business Confidence (June), Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Qatar GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros celebrates National Day, marking the anniversary of the country’s independence from France in 1975.

·       Malawi celebrates Independence Day, marking its independence from the UK in 1964.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (June)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (June)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (June)

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Global

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) monthly update is released.

·       The UN-sponsored The AI for Good Global Summit takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

· In Geneva, there will be a press conference on the situation of human rights in Myanmar by Thomas Andrews, United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO Lori Logan will speak at the Central Bank Research Association Annual Meeting being held at the New York Fed.

·       US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June), Initial Jobless Claims (July 1), Challenger Job Cuts (June), ADP Employment Change (June), ISM Services PMI (June), JOLTS Job Openings (May), ISM Services Employment/New Orders/Services Prices Reports (June), New Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Colombia Inflation (June)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (May)

·       Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is held in Shanghai, China, through July 8.  The organizers point out that “The previous five WAICs attracted more than 600,000 visitors in person and 1.5 billion online. Over 200 major industrial projects with a total investment of CNY70 billion (USD 9.6 billion) were signed at previous events. Moreover, 58 major application scenarios were unveiled, and more than 300 products were launched in the domestic and foreign markets.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Taiwan Inflation (June)

·       Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Erdogan is expected to meet with the Swedish Prime Minister in Brussels to discuss Sweden’s accession to NATO.  The meeting, hosted by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, hopes to finalize a deal in advance of the NATO Summit on July 11-12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (June), Retail Sales (May)

·       Germany Factory Orders (May), HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (June)

·       Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Romania Retail Sales (May)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (June 30)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Friday, July 7, 2023

Global

·       The G7 Justice Ministers will meet in Tokyo.  Justice Ministers from ASEAN countries have been invited to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment (June), Average Weekly Hours (June), Government Payrolls (June)

·       Canada Unemployment (June), Ivey PMI (June)

·       Brazil Car Production (June)

·       Mexico Inflation (June), Auto Exports (June), Auto Production (June)

·       Chile Inflation (June), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       El Salvador Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Solomon Islands celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when the UK granted the country its independence in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (June)

·       Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May), Household Spending (May), Overtime Pay (May), Average Cash Earnings (May), FX Reserves (June)

·       South Korea Current Account (May)

·       India FX Reserves (June 30)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (June)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (June)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (June)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Philippines Unemployment (May), Industrial Production (May), FX Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany’s Bundestag going into summer break, and all 736 members of Parliament will be out of session until September.

·       In the UK, the Church of England’s General Synod, the institution’s main legislative body, begins a five-day meeting at York University. The agenda includes further discussion on contentious proposals for same-sex marriage blessings and a report on climate change from the church’s national investing bodies.

·       Today is the annual Running of the Bulls in Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel "Où sont les femmes?" at 23rd edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2023 in Aix-en-Provence , France.

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a keynote at a workshop, "Examining the inflationary surge affecting economies around the world," organized by King's College in London.

·       Germany Industrial Production (May)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), FX Reserves (June)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (June), Labor Productivity (Q1), BBA Mortgage Rate (June)

·       Italy retail Sales (May)

·       Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves (June)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (June)

·       Norway Industrial Production (May), GDP (May), Manufacturing Production (May)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June), FX Reserves (June)

·       Sweden GDP (May), Construction Output (May), Household Consumption (May), Industrial Production (May), New Orders (May)

·       Hungary Inflation (June)

·       Romania GDP (Q1)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia FX Reserves (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation (June), FX Reserves (June)

·       Israel FX Reserves (June)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya is bracing for protests over the recent tax law passed by parliament.  Protesters believe the change has raised the cost of living significantly.

·       The African Union hosts African Integration Day 2023. The theme this year is “Accelerating Job Creation, Digital and Financial Inclusion in the AfCFTA Market.”

·       Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, celebrating the unifying of the country under several political parties.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Jakarta, Indonesia, through July 14.

·       The 4th Round of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity negotiations take place in Busan, South Korea.

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Latvia will inaugurate President-elect Edgars Rinkevics in Riga. He has been a long-serving and highly popular foreign minister and becomes the country’s first gay president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, July 9, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior officials from the US Trade Representative and US Commerce Department will travel to Busan, South Korea, for the fourth negotiating round of the Ind-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) through July 15. 

·       Today is Independence Day in Argentina, marking the day in 1816 when the Congress of Tucumán declared the independence of the United Provinces of South America, thus creating Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds presidential elections.

·       Palau celebrates Constitution Day, marking the day the country decided not to join the rest of Micronesia and instead adopted its own Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

June 30 - July 2, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

·       North Korea’s Cyber Strategy”  Recorded Future

A mention of North Korean hackers typically conjures images of either crippling cyberattacks or, more often, massive cryptocurrency heists. But a new report on the authoritarian state’s capabilities and tendencies paints a different picture.  The report, prepared by cyber-intelligence firm Recorded Future and shared exclusively with Foreign Policy, labels espionage as the predominant motive of North Korea’s cyber program. Recorded Future analyzed 273 cyberattacks over a 14-year period linked to North Korean state-sponsored groups and found that information collection was the primary motivation for more than 70 percent of them.

·       “Latin America’s Lithium; Perspectives on Critical Minerals and the Global Energy Transition”  The Wilson Center

This report examines the region’s enormous potential to supply the lithium needed to drive the global energy transition. This report – the first in a series – looks at how U.S.-China competition is reflected in the scramble for lithium in South America, how opposition to lithium mining in local communities could curtail production, and how to improve regulations regarding water use to ensure a sustainable lithium industry in the region.

·       “The End of Optimism in China”  Michael Schuman/The Atlantic

The author, who lives in Beijing, writes that in recent years, pessimism has grown in China. The go-go years of China’s economic growth have come to an end, and with them, the easy gains in welfare and free-flowing jobs. Three years of President Xi’s unforgiving “zero COVID” pandemic controls, which locked hundreds of millions into their homes or placed them under other restrictions, exposed the regime’s capacity for irrationality and brutality.

How the Chinese people truly feel about Xi and his agenda is almost impossible to determine in the absence of a free press or freedom of speech. Yet some statistics offer clues.  For example, the proportion of adults engaged in starting new companies has fallen dramatically in China recently, from 15.5 percent in 2014 to only 6 percent last year.

·   “Egypt’s dog breed ban leaves owners scrambling to save their pets” Al-Monitor

Egyptian authorities recently enacted a law that effectively outlaws the ownership of specific dog breeds. The law provided a list of dog breeds deemed "dangerous" and unsuitable for ownership without thorough safety inspections, including the husky, German shepherd, and Great Dane.  Owners of these breeds must either surrender their pets within a month or prepare for confiscatory raids. The law will allow ownership of only ten breeds without inspection — the cocker spaniel, Labrador, poodle, Malinois, Pomeranian, Jack Russell terrier, white shepherd, Maltese dog, and Samoyed — and imposes stringent regulations on breeds such as the pit bull, Rottweiler, German shepherd, boxer, husky, Caucasian shepherd and bull mastiff.

Map of the Week

New data on disparities in Medicaid access to opioid

addiction treatment

From Statnews.com: “An estimated 82,998 people died from opioid overdoses in the U.S. last year. A new study published Friday in JAMA Health Forum drives home how lack of access to lifesaving medications could contribute to these preventable deaths.

The study is the most comprehensive Medicaid analysis of opioid addiction to date, analyzing a national claims dataset with 76 million patient data points between 2016 and 2018. Medicaid patients are already at a disproportionate risk of opioid overdoses, almost four times higher than patients on commercial insurance. Correspondingly, Medicaid is one of the primary payers of opioid addiction treatment in the U.S., covering nearly 40% of adults under 65 with this chronic disease.”

Chart of the Week 

Japan is employing ever more immigrant workers

From Macrobond: “With an aging population causing a labor shortage in some industries, historically immigration-averse Japan has been welcoming more and more foreign workers. As the Wall Street Journal recently wrote, it’s also loosening regulations, potentially letting them stay in the country for good.  As our charts show, the numbers have quadrupled in just 15 years – and the foreign-born now account for 2 percent of the total labor force. The effects in the services, retail, and hospitality sectors are easily seen in this visualization.  

The Global Week Ahead

June 25 - July 2, 2023

In the wake of an astonishing and, quite frankly, bizarre, failed coup attempt in Russia by the mercenary Wagner Group, capitals and markets worldwide will undoubtedly be seeking answers as to what happens next in Moscow and Ukraine. NATO leaders will be gathering in the Hague this week to prepare for the NATO Summit (July 11-12) in Vilnius. Still, they will be talking and analyzing the situation in Russia closely.  

Also this week,  Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin, China. We will be watching for any official Chinese assessments of the coup attempt and directional indicators for the next steps in the US-China relationship following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing last week.

In the EU, the European Council convenes to discuss various issues ranging from the War in Ukraine to a recently proposed EU Economic Security Strategy dealing with trade with China. Later in the week (Sunday), French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Germany, where Ukraine, China, and the EU’s economic outlook will be paramount discussion issues.

On the global economic front, we will watch the European Central Bank’s Central Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal. Central bank chiefs from around the world – including Fed Chair Jay Powell – will be speaking and discussing various economic and financial issues.  

Markets will be watching several key economic reports this week, particularly the US and Eurozone CPI releases, China’s PMIs, and inflation data from Canada, France, and Italy.

Finally, we will be looking at the Federal Reserve Board’s Stress Test results, which are being released on Wednesday, to get a fuller sense of the strength of the major US banks.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Global

·       Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is in recess this week and next week for the 4th of July holiday.

·       Guatemala holds central elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives panel remarks before the closed Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture organized by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will visit Beijing, China, through June 28.

·       The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan will make a port call to Da Nang, Vietnam, through June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds parliamentary run-off elections.  If no clear winners emerge, a 3rd run-off will be held in August.

·       The Nordic-Canada Prime Ministers meeting is held in Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland.  The topics for discussion will include security issues around the Arctic and European defense.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating the day when the country declared independence from Yugoslavia.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking the day in 1991 when the country declared its independence from Yugoslavia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Monday, June 26, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States and Japan will hold an Extended Deterrence Dialogue in the United States through June 27.

·       Argentine President Alberto Fernandez visits Brasília, Brazil, for meetings with Brazilian President Lula.

·       Toronto holds mayoral elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), Wholesale Sales (May)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June), Current Account (May), FDI (May), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and a delegation of business executives will visit China through June 30.  New Zealand relies on China for approximately 25 percent of its exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions Released, Coincident Index (April), Leading Economic Index (April)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to Lithuania to prepare for the NATO Summit on July 11-12.  He will also attend Exercise Griffin Storm 2023.

·       EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange of views on the relations between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean ahead of the EU-CELAC summit planned for 17-18 July 2023.

·       The Weimar Triangle talks with Finance Minister Christian Lindner, France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, and Poland's Finance Minister Magdalena Rzeczkowska takes place in Ettersburg, Germany.

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 27.

·       The EU-Tajikistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank hosts their Forum on Central Banking in Sintra Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde will give opening remarks.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a roundtable discussion on "Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) sustainability in the financial sector" at Point Zero Forum organized by Banca d'Italia.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions/Expectations Reports (May)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (June)

·       Spain PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Madagascar celebrates Independence Day.

·       Somalia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Zimbabwe Inflation (June)

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and The Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Walt Nauta, a senior aide to former president Donald Trump, is to be arraigned on numerous charges, including conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, and corruptly concealing a document or record in a Miami Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Durable Goods Orders (May), Redbook (June 24), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April), Home Prices (April), CB Consumer Confidence (June), New Home Sales (May), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Indexes (June), Dallas Fed Services Indexes (June), Building Permits (May)

·       Canada Inflation (May), CPI (May)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes Released, IPCA CPI (June)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in the city of Tianjin, an event looking to facilitate dialogue on the economy between the public and private sectors. More than 1,500 participants are expected to attend the three-day event hosted by the World Economic Forum.

·       Today is Tajikistan’s National Day of Unity.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June), Unemployment (May)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, will co-host a working dinner for NATO Heads of State at the Hague.  The primary points for discussion will be preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11-12 and the situation in Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets through June 30 in Luxembourg to discuss European electoral law.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member  Fabio Panetta chairs session 1, "Monetary policy in the face of multiple supply shocks," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra.  Later in the day, ECB Board Member Frank Elderson chairs session 2: "Assessing the costs of inflation." Followed by  ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairing a panel “structural change in energy markets and implications for Inflation”

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra gives a speech at UK Women in Economics Network on "tools for success” in London.

·       Italy Business Confidence (June)

·       Sweden Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), PPI (May),

·       Hungary Current Account (Q1)

·       Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Wednesday, June 28, 2023 

Global

·       Today is the start of Eid al-Adha, the second and largest of the two main Islamic holidays.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2023 in Sintra, Portugal.

·       US Bank Stress Tests, MBA Mortgage Market Index (June 23), Goods Trade Balance (May), Retail Inventories (May), Wholesale Inventories (May)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (May), Net Payrolls (May)

·       Uruguay Unemployment (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (May)

·       India M3 Money Supply (June 16)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (May), PPI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas in Brussels.  Later in eh day, she meets with the Prime Minister of Bulgaria Nikolai Denkov, and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.

·       Today is Ukraine Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs session 3: "Monetary policy normalization" and session 3: “the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy in the context of high inflation’ at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.   Later in the day, ECB Board Member Philip Lane chairs a panel, “Lessons from recent experiences in Macroeconomic forecasting.”  This is followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a policy panel by Ms. Lagarde and then gives closing remarks for the Forum. 

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the introductory statement at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels 

·       Eurozone Loans to Households and Companies (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (July)

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Italy PPI (May), Inflation Rate (June), CPI (June), Retail Sales (May), Industrial Sales (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June), Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Spain Retail Sales (May)

·       Norway Household Consumption (May), Retail Sales (May)

·       Sweden Household Lending Growth (May)

·       Russia GDP (May), Unemployment (May), Real Wages (April), Business Confidence (June), Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June), Capacity Utilization (June)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a dialogue with Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos at the Banco de España Fourth Conference on Financial Stability in Madrid, Spain.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the US economic outlook before the Irish Association of Investment Managers Annual Dinner in Dublin, Ireland.

·       US GDP (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (June 24), PCE Prices (Q1), Real Consumer Spending (Q10, Pending Home Sales (May)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June), Average Weekly Earnings (April)

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June), PPI (May)

·       Chile Unemployment (May)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (June), Current Account (q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Finance ministers from South Korea and Japan will meet in Tokyo, Japan, for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (May), Consumer Confidence (June)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       Australia Retail Sales (May)

·       Vietnam GDP (Q2), Balance of Trade (June), Industrial Production (June), Inflation (June), Tourist Arrivals (June), FDI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through June 30.  They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the state of the EU economy, and how to enhance the EU’s security and defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       External member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England Silvana Tenreyro delivers a speech at the Society of Professional Economists, hosted at the Resolution Foundation in London.

·       ECB Economic Bulletin, Economic Sentiment (June), Selling Price Expectations (June), Services Sentiment (June), Consumer Confidence (June), Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Germany Inflation (June)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (May), Mortgage Lending (May)

·       Spain Inflation (June), Business confidence (June)

·       Ireland Inflation (June)

·       Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report, Retail Sales (May), Business Confidence (June), Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (June)

·       Montenegro Balance of Trade (May), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Seychelles celebrates Independence Day.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q2), PPI (May)

Friday, June 30, 2023 

Global

·       The UK takes over the chair of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core PCE Price Index (May), Personal Income (May), Chicago PMI (June), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Canada GDP (April), Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

·       Mexico Unemployment (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (April)

·       Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment (May)

·       Costa Rica GDP (Q1), Unemployment (Q1), Current Account (Q1)

·       El Salvador GDP (q1),  Current Account (Q1)

·       Uruguay Current Account (Q1), Balance of Trade (May)

·       Paraguay GDP (Q1), Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs (June), Current Account (Q1)

·       Japan Unemployment (May), CPI (June), Industrial Production (May), Housing Starts (May), Construction Orders (May)

·       India Current Account (Q1), External Debt (Q1), Infrastructure Output (May), FX Reserves (June 23), Deposit Growth (June 16)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May), Current Account (May), Private Consumption (May), Retail Sales (April)

·       Philippines PPI (May), Business Confidence (Q2), Consumer Confidence (Q2)

·       Australia Housing Credit (May), Private Sector Credit (May), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (June)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation (June), Current Account (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Wagner Group mercenaries to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Unemployment (May), Inflation (June), CPI (June)

·       Germany Retail Sales (May), Import Prices (May), Unemployment (June)

·       France Inflation (June), Household Consumption (May), PPI (May)

·       Italy Unemployment (May)

·       Spain Current Account (April)

·       UK GDP (Q1), Current Account (Q1), Business Investment (Q1), Car Production (May), Nationwide Housing Prices (June)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (May), KOF Leading Indicators (June)

·       Poland Inflation (June)

·       Norway Unemployment (June)

·       Romania Unemployment (May)

·       Hungary PPI (May), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Bulgaria PPI (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation (June)

·       Serbia Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

·       Ukraine Current Account (May)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence (Q2)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Private Sector Credit (May), M3 Money Supply (May), Balance of Trade (May)

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (June)

·       Namibia GDP (Q1)

·       Kenya GDP (Q1) 

Saturday, July 1, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Canada Day, celebrating the nation’s unity and independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, a new anti-espionage law goes into effect with the aim of strengthening national security. The revised law will expand the scope of coverage to "all documents, data, materials, and articles" and allow law enforcers to inspect the baggage, electronic devices, and facilities of anyone, including foreigners suspected of spying.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 110th Tour de France begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burundi celebrates Independence Day.

·       It is Republic Day in Ghana.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, July 2, 2023 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Germany.

·       Spain takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union.  They hold the chair until December 31, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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