Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 6/24/23 Francis Kelly 6/24/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 18 - 25, 2023

Geopolitics will again dominate the global market's attention this week as high-level diplomats from the US and China begin major trips seeking to calm global tensions. First, Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Beijing for meetings – the first time a US cabinet-level official has visited in three years. While no breakthroughs are anticipated, it may finally put a floor below the US-China relationship, which has been in free-fall for several years.

Later in the week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will travel to Germany and France to discuss EU-China relations, focusing on high-tech investments, the revival of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, Huawei's role in 5G networks, and other economic issues.

Meanwhile, in Washington this week, President Biden hosts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for meetings focusing on further tightening defense and technology sharing between the two nations – an increasingly important strategic alliance for both countries.

In Paris this week, the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact convenes with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and numerous leaders of southern nations. The Summit aims to build a more inclusive international financial system to fight inequalities and climate transition and move closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

On the global economic agenda this week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semiannual testimonies before the House of Representatives and Senate on the state of the economy. Several major market PMIs (Japan, Germany, and the US) are released, and the Bank of England decides whether to pursue another interest rate increase.

China will be deciding on domestic banks' prime loan rates fixings as markets increasingly worry about the strength – or lack thereof – of the second biggest economy.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Global

· Father’s Day is celebrated in a number of countries around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay celebrates Artigas’ Day, celebrating the birth of Jośe Gervasio Artigas, who is known as the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will travel to Germany and France to discuss EU-China relations with a focus on high tech investments, revival of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, Huawei’s role in 5G networks and other economic issues.

· China hosts the Straits Forum through June 19. The focus of the forum is to promote cultural and economic exchanges with Taiwan as well build stronger communications between the peoples of both countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Six African leaders will continue their visit to Moscow and Kyiv encouraging peace talks. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is leading the delegation, which also includes heads of state from Zambia, the Republic of Congo, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.

· Switzerland holds referendums nationwide on the implementation of the OECD/G20 project that ensures large international corporations are taxed at least 15 percent. They will also vote on the Federal Act which goes to reducing the countries uses of oil and natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mali holds a constitutional referendum. It was initially scheduled for July 9, 2017 but delayed. It was further delayed in 2021 following a coup d’état. The vote is over creating new regions in line with a 2015 agreement with separatists in Northern Mali.

· European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will travel to Nairobi, Kenya, to meet Kenyan President William Ruto and sign an interim EU-Kenya Economic Partnership Agreement.

· Today is Constitution Day in the Seychelles, marking the day the declaration of the referendum in 1993 making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 19, 2023

Global

· The Financial Action Task Force will meet in Paris through June 23. Among the issues they will consider is adding Russia to its “Black List” of countries for money laundering and/or supporting terrorist activities.

· The UN will hold a high-level pledging event for Sudan. The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN will hold the Third United Nations High-level Conference of Heads of Counter-Terrorism Agencies of Member States at UN Headquarters in New York.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Juneteenth National Independence Day, a federal holiday. Banks and stock exchanges are closed as is the federal government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US NAHB Housing Market Index (June)

· Canada Raw Materials Prices (May), PPI (May)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The North Korean Worker’s Party Plenary Session is expected to be held in Pyongyang.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as preparations for the July NATO Summit. He will also meet with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and attend the Air Defender 2023 exercises, NATO’s larges air deployment exercise in its history.

· Belarus hosts the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Ministerial Meeting. Leaders from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Georgia are expected to be in attendance.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets in Luxembourg. They will discuss electricity market design.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat on the occasion of the awarding of the German Bernacer prize in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairing session at conference "New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment" organized by Euro50 Group in Luxembourg.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a prize awarding ceremony of economic journalism organized by Asociación de Periodistas Europeos, KPMG and Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME) in Madrid

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (June), Unemployment (May)

· Israel Unemployment (May), Manufacturing Production (May)

· Jordan Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Nigerian government and the Nigerian Labour Congress, a federation of trade unions, will negotiate over fuel subsidy removal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Tuesday, June 20 , 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Italy and France. He is expected to discuss finalizing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement and funding for the Amazon Fund to fight further degradation of the rain forest.

· Opposition parties in Colombia are calling for nationwide protests against President Gustavo Petro and his Administration following the revelation of a scandal involving a nanny, a missing briefcase of cash, and illegal wiretapping. Gustavo Petro has seen political allies resign as an investigation has been launched by the Attorney General.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard gives a speech entitled “Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World” at the Barcelona School of Economics Forum in Barcelona, Spain.

· US Building Permits (May), Housing Starts (May), International Monetary Market Date

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenue (April)

· Mexico Retail Sales (April)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

· Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Taiwan Export Orders (May)

· Hong Kong Inflation (May)

· Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will participate in a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Forum in Sydney, RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the AI Group in Newcastle, Australia.

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 7th German-Chinese government consultations take place in Berlin, Germany.

· The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg where they will discuss CO2 emission targets for heavy-duty vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives introductory remarks at a conference on Counterparty Credit Risk in Frankfurt.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a panel at a conference on Counterparty Credit Risk in Frankfurt. Later in the day, she is the keynote speaker at the annual Workshop of the Council for the US and Italy. Her speech is entitled “The future of globalization: politics, business, lifestyles, brands” organized by the Council for the United States and Italy in Milan, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks on the occasion of the awarding of the German Bernacer prize in Madrid, Spain.

· Eurozone Current Account (April), Construction Output (April)

· Germany PPI (May)

· Italy Current Account (April)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)

· Serbia Current Account (April)

· Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (June)

· Slovenia Unemployment (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Government Debt (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya hosts the African Energy Forum through June 23.

· Eritrea holds Martyrs’ Day, commemorating all those who died fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (April)

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on peace and security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits President Biden. The focus of the meetings will be to seek new ways to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries. It is expected Biden will particularly focus on mutual defense and technology issues.

· The Organization of American States (OAS) holds its annual assembly in Washington, DC through June 23.

· The US Senate Banking Committee holds nomination hearings for Governor Philip Jefferson’s nomination to be Vice Chair for Monetary Policy and Lisa DeNell Cook and Adriana Debora Kugler to be members of the Board of Governors.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the US House Financial Services Committee to present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before the Wall Street Journal Global Food Forum in Chicago, Illinois.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Mester gives opening remarks at the Cleveland Fed Policy Summit 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.

· US MBA Mortgage Index Data (June 16), Redbook (June 17)

· Canada Central Bank Summary of Deliberations, Retail Sales (April), New Housing Price Index (May)

· Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Private Spending (Q1), Aggregate Demand (Q1), Aggregate Demand (Q1)

· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (May), Leading Indicator (May)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Adachi Seiji speaks to a group of local leaders in Kagoshima, Japan.

· Japan Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Reuters Tankan Index (June)

· South Korea PPI (May)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)

· Hong Kong Current Account (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development hosts the 2nd Ukraine Recovery Conference will be held in London. The focus of the meeting will be to discuss how to mobilize of international and private sector support for the economic and social stabilization of Ukraine. While there, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to meet with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, to press for Turkey to accept Sweden to become a member of NATO.

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will take part in a transatlantic conversation in Brussels on climate and security, together with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission, John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and Frans Timmermans, First Vice-President of the European Commission.

· The EU General Affairs Council holds an informal meeting in Luxembourg through June 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at "60 Jahre Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung" in Berlin, Germany.

· Eurozone New Car Registrations (May)

· UK Inflation (May), PPI (May), Public Sector Borrowing (May), Retail Sales (May), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)

· Italy Construction Output (April)

· Poland Unemployment (May), Industrial Production (May), PPI (May), Corporate Sector Wages (May)

· Switzerland National Bank Financial Stability Report released.

· Sweden Unemployment (May)

· Slovenia PPI (May), Current Account (April)

· Russia PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Business Confidence (June), Capacity Utilization (June)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who fought for independence from British and French colonization.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation (May)

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Global

· The Summit for a New Global Financial Pact will be held in Paris, France and go through June 23. The goal of the summit is to address debt distress in many countries and how nations can better respond to climate change.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Somalia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee giving the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking and Central Bank of Ireland conference, Dublin, Ireland.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

· US Current Account (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (June 17), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May), Existing Home Sales (May), CB Leading Index (May), Kansas Fed Composite Index (June)

· Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Mid-month Inflation (June)

· Argentina GDP (Q1), Unemployment (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Noguchi Asahi addresses local leaders in Okinawa.

· Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (May), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will speak to the Bundestag to lay out his priorities ahead of the EU Leaders Summit that takes place next week. He leaves that evening for a dinner meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and then will participate in the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank General Council Meeting

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta Fabio Panetta gives a speech at the fifth annual joint conference of the Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on CCP risk management in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a roundtable organized by the Spanish association of financial journalists as part of the summer courses of Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

· Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June)

· UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Release of Meeting Minutes

· France Business Confidence (June), Business Climate Indicator (June)

· Switzerland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Norway Central Bank Interest Decision & Press Conference, Loan Growth (May), Unemployment (May)

· Hungary Gross Wage (April)

· Slovakia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (June 16)

· Kuwait Inflation (May)

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (April)

· Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Lebanon Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

European Union-Africa heads-of-state summit in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP (Q1)

Friday, June 23, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World" presentation before the Central Bank of Ireland and International Journal of Central Banking Research Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Raphael Bullard gives remarks at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business CFO Roundtable in Atlanta, Georgia.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Mester gives a speech at the Cleveland Fed Policy Summit 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.

· US S&P Global Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (June)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), Average Weekly Earnings (April), Wholesale Sales (May)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June), IGP-M Inflation (June), Federal Tax Revenues

· Chile PPI (May)

· Colombia Business Confidence (May)

· Argentina Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay GDP (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation (May), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· India FX Reserves (June 16)

· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Singapore CPI (May), Inflation (May)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Malaysia Inflation (May), Leading Index (April), Coincident Index (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday commemorating the fight against both Soviet-Russian troops and Baltic-German Landwehr Army in 1918.

· Today is the 7th Anniversary of the Brexit Referendum.

· Luxembourg celebrates National Day today,

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference on central banks, macro-financial stability, and the future of the financial system in Basel, Switzerland.

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (June), Retail Sales (May), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June), CBI Distributive Trades (June)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Spain GDP (Q1)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Poland Unemployment (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

· Switzerland Current Account (Q1)

· Hungary Unemployment (May)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommer-Dialog 2023 in Königswinter, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Sierra Leone holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guatemala holds central elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds parliamentary run-off elections. If no clear winners emerge, a 3rd run-off will be held in August.

· Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating the day when the country declared independence from Yugoslavia.

· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking the day in 1991 when the country declared its independence from Yugoslavia.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Mozambique Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

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Francis Kelly 6/16/23 Francis Kelly 6/16/23

Charts of the Week

How Capping Methane Emissions in Turkmenistan Can Be A Game Changer in the Climate Change Fight

Methane and the ability to reduce is core to the climate change battle. Bloomberg recently published a report on how the US is talking to Turkmenistan about working together to cap their gas emission via leaks in their vast oil and gas fields. Coupled with pending EU rules regulating coal in the EU, this would result in 290 million tons of CO2 being taken out of the atmosphere a year. That would be the equivalent of canceling Taiwan’s total methane emissions – the 21st worst polluting country in the world. But that begs the question: Who are the worst climate offenders out there?

Francis Kelly 6/11/23 Francis Kelly 6/11/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 11 - 18, 2023

The Ukraine Spring offensive has officially begun, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced at the end of this past week. Amidst all this, Russian President Putin will be hosting the St. Petersburg Summit – often referred to as the Russian Davos – where business leaders and political leaders from various nations (but not Europe or the US as in years past) will attend. President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for a discussion on the situation in Ukraine, and later in the week, NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation and prepare for the NATO Summit in July.

In Beijing, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has offered to help mediate Israeli-Palestinian tensions. Here in Washington, D.C., all attention will be on former President Donald Trump’s arraignment in federal court after being indicted on 37 criminal counts of violation of the Espionage Act. Our view is this case will have something of a paralyzing effect on Congress for the rest of the summer and flip the tables on the 2024 election expectations – all of which we will see more clearly in the week and months ahead leading into the trial.

On the global economic agenda this week, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank meet to discuss interest rates. The ECB is expected to raise another quarter point, and the market is again split over what the Fed will do (our guess is they will raise another quarter point, too).

Regarding other major economic data reports this week, China will release key statistics on industrial production, property, and retail sales, giving markets a better sense of how the country is bouncing back – or not – from COVID lockdowns.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Global

· Nothing significant to report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Montenegro holds parliamentary elections.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers will hold informal meetings through June 13th in Brussels.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Tunis to announce an EU financial aid package to Tunisia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 12, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for meetings at the White House. They will review preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit, which is being held in Vilnius, Lithuania. They will also discuss the Allied support for Ukraine.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden begins a trip through June 15th to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. She will meet with the respective presidents of each country in a bid to improve trade relations with the EU.

· Chile launches its second-ever satellite into orbit on a SpaceX rocket.

· Bolivia and Paraguay observe Chaco Armistice Day, a public holiday commemorating the end of the Chaco War between the two nation’s in1935.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (May), Monthly Budget Statement (May)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Balance of Trade (April), Consumer Confidence (May)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

· Peru Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Caixin Global Forum begins in Singapore. More than 300 policymakers, business leaders, and thought leaders will attend the inaugural event hosted by the Beijing news service.

· The Philippines celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan PPI (May), Machine Tool Orders (May)

· India Manufacturing Production (April), Industrial Production (April), Inflation (May)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

· Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Paris. The talks will be held at a dinner that will focus on Ukraine’s push for NATO membership and security guarantees from its allies, all in advance of the NATO Summit being held in July.

· NATO will hold the largest deployment exercise in its history – “Air Defender 23” – through June 23rd. More than 10,000 troops and airmen from 25 nations with more than 250 aircraft will train focused on air operations in European airspace – mostly over Germany but also up to the Russian borders in the Baltics and around the Black Sea – under the command of the German Air Force.

· The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will be in Washington DC for peace talks hosted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, and Consumer Affairs Council meet through Tuesday.

· Kosovo celebrates Peace Day, marking the day a ceasefire in the Kosovo War was negotiated in 1999.

· Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia commemorating the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at a webinar hosted by Signum chair Charles Myers

· Ireland Construction PMI (May)

· Bulgaria Balance of Trade (April)

· Serbia Inflation (May)

· Ukraine GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Current Account (April), Participation Rate (April), Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 14th Ordinary Session of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa Assembly of Heads of State and Government meet in Djibouti.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Threats to international peace and security: Climate change, peace, and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will visit India, where he'll meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss bilateral defense ties.

· Former President Donald Trump is expected in a federal court in Miami to be arraigned on federal charges for his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Inflation (May), CPI (May), NFIB Business Optimism Index (May), Redbook (June 10)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

· Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia Development Bank hosts the Asia Clean Energy Forum in Manila. The four-day meeting, which is co-hosted by the US Agency for International Development and the Korea Energy Agency, will bring leaders together to discuss alternative energy policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Vehicle Sales (May)

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q2)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (June), NAB Business Confidence (May)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat at the 27th Annual European Financial Services Conference organized by Goldman Sachs in Paris

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee as part of an inquiry into central bank independence.

· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)

· Germany Inflation (May), CPI (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June), Current Account (April)

· UK Unemployment (May)

· Spain CPI (May), Inflation (May)

· Poland Current Account (April), Balance of Trade (April)

· Norway GDP (April)

· Romania Inflation (May), Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit China through June 16. President Xi has offered to help facilitate peace talks with Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Retail Sales (April)

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg hosts its New Economy Gateway Africa forum in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Namibia Inflation (May)

· South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

· Mozambique Inflation (May)

· Uganda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Global

· International Energy Agency Oil Market Report

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The values of human fraternity in promoting and sustaining peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Falklands Islands Liberation Day commemorating the liberation of the Island from the Argentine military in 1982.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US PPI (MBA Mortgage Index (June 9th)

· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (April)

· Brazil Retail Sales (April), Business Confidence (June)

· Argentina Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· India WPI Inflation (May), WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

· South Korea Imports/Export Prices (May), Unemployment (May)

· Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 17th. Hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and often referred to as “the Russian version of Davos,” the forum in 2022 (according to claims made on the website), brought together “14,000 people from 131 countries, including 1,700, 130 high-ranking foreign officials” and resulted in “5.7 trillion (ruble) in agreements.”

· Junior doctors in the UK go on strike for 72 hours seeking better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

· UK GDP (April), Manufacturing Production (April), Industrial Production (April), Goods Trade Balance (April), Construction Output (April), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

· Poland Industrial Production (April)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)

· Hungary Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Romania Industrial Production (April)

· Sweden CPI (May), CPIF (May), Inflation (May)

· Bulgaria (May)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account (Q1), M1 Money Supply (May)

· Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· UAE Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· East African finance ministers meet at the South Sudan Oil & Power Conference held in Juba.

· A French court continues the trial of former Rwandan police officer Philippe Hategekimana for his role in the Rwanda genocide in 1994. Hategekimana fled to France in 1994 and started his life under a false identity. He is charged with murdering dozens of Tutsis and coordinating roadblocks that trapped countless other Tutsis leading to their murder.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· South Africa Retail Sales (April)

· Ghana Inflation (May)

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold briefings on the 1591 Committee and on the 751 Committee (Somalia). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· G20 Agricultural Ministers meet in Hyderabad, India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Jobless Claims (June 10), Retail Sales (May), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (June), Philadelphia Fed Employment (June), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (June), Industrial Production (May), Manufacturing Production (May), Capacity Utilization (May), Export/Import Prices (May), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (April)

· Canada Housing Starts (May), Manufacturing Sales (April)

· Colombia Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay GDP (Q1)

· Peru GDP (April), Unemployment (May), GDP (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Over 4,000 members of South Korea's National Railroad Workers' Union will join demonstrations across the country against industry privatization.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China People’s Central Bank 1-Year MLF Announcement, House Price Index (May), Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment (May), FDI (May)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), Machinery Orders (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Australia Unemployment (May), Reserve Bank Bulletin

· Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (Q1)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

· Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Sri Lanka GDP (Q1), Manufacturing PMI (May), Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup (EU Finance Ministers) meets in Luxembourg. They are expected to discuss the digital euro project, among other things.

· NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine, preparations for the July 11-12 NATO Summit, and Sweden’s bid to join the alliance.

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the Swiss Parliament via video call.

· Brussels hosts the 7th Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region Conference. Attendees will be various EU ministers focused on rallying the international community to support a comprehensive and credible political solution in Syria as well as mobilizing humanitarian and financial aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

· France Inflation (May)

· Poland Inflation (May)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

· Serbia Building Permits (April)

· Spain Balance of Trade (April)

· Norway Balance of Trade (May)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (May)

· Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Russia GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

· Turkey Budget Balance (May), FX Reserves (June 9)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya’s Parliament is set to debate a new tax amendment which has garnered widespread national opposition and led to violent clashes with security personnel. Part of the dispute revolves around how members of parliament – among the best-paid in Africa – had agreed to a pay cut but in exchange for tax-free car grants, bigger pensions, and extra allowances.

· The African Union launches the temporary site for the Great Museum of Africa. The museum will be in Algiers, Algeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya 2024 budget presented to Parliament. Uganda and Tanzania also will be presenting their budget proposals to their respective parliaments today.

· Nigeria Food Inflation (May)

· South Africa Building Permits (April)

· Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (May)

Friday, June 16, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Mali and Head of MINUSMA, El Ghassim Wan, will be in New York to brief Council members, and he is expected to speak with reporters at the Security Council stakeout afterward.

· G7 Transport Ministers meeting in Shima, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Policy” at the Norges Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the IMF Economic Review joint conference on “The Future of Macroeconomic Policy,” Oslo, Norway

· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World" presentation before the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Norges Bank and IMF Economic Review "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy" C

· US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken may travel to Beijing (but more likely sometime next week) for meetings that may include a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Seen as a possible breakthrough moment that could finally establish a “floor” under the relationship between the two nations, which has been spiraling for years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· India Deposit Growth (June 2), FX Reserves (June 9), Bank Loan Growth (June 2)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May), Balance of Trade (May), Unemployment (Q1)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (May), Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets in Luxembourg. Among the agenda items of issues to be discussed include VAT in the digital age package, the retail investment directive, and further retail investment regulation.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin may receive a delegation of African and Middle Eastern leaders to discuss a possible peace plan with Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, & Risk Sarah Breeden speaks at the Westminster Business Forum in London. The topic of her speech is “Managing Risk and Building Stability in UK Pension Markets.”

· Eurozone Inflation (May), Labor Cost Index (Q1), Wage Growth (Q1), CPI (May)

· Italy Inflation (May), CPI (May), Balance of Trade (April)

· Poland Inflation (May)

· Bulgaria Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Auto Production (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)

Saturday, June 17, 2023

Global

· The Special Olympics World Summer Games commence in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Emperor Nauhito and Empress Masako will visit Indonesia through June 23rd.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Iceland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Global

· Father’s Day is celebrated in a number of countries around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay celebrates Artigas’ Day, celebrating the birth of Jośe Gervasio Artigas, who is known as the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in the Seychelles, marking the day the declaration of the referendum in 1993 making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/9/23 Francis Kelly 6/9/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 4 - 11, 2023

Now that the White House and Congress have averted a debt default, the markets are turning their attention to geopolitical events. Ukraine appears to be on the cusp of launching its much-anticipated spring offensive. OPEC meets this week, where they will likely agree to further production cuts to help sagging oil prices – although there appears to be friction among various members on whether to cut production and, if so, by how much.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with his Indian counterpart, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, in New Delhi, reflecting the growing security relationship between the US and India. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia for a series of high-level meetings, including participating in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial meeting – all part of an effort to rebuild US relations with Saudi Arabia.

On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Germany for a dinner meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The two leaders will discuss the upcoming NATO Summit in July and how the EU can further assist Ukraine. They are also likely to discuss EU policy toward China. On Wednesday, President Biden will host British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the first official visit of the Prime Minister to the White House. They are expected to discuss Ukraine, Northern Ireland’s political situation, and bilateral trade issues - but not a trade deal.

On the US political front, two more Republicans will jump into the 2024 presidential campaign: Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence will announce this week.

On the economic radar screen this week, China will release inflation data on Wednesday. This week, the Central Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on interest rates. The US Federal Reserve will be quiet this week as they are officially in their “quiet period” before meeting to determine interest rate policy on June 14th.

Finally, the OECD meets this week in Paris and will release its global economic outlook. The World Bank will also be releasing its summer Economic Outlook this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Global

· OPEC+ holds a ministers’ meeting in person in Vienna, Austria.

· The 79th Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2023 takes place in Istanbul, Turkey, through June 6th. This is the world’s largest gathering of airline leaders.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The State of Mexico holds elections for governor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 34th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square clampdown and massacre.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco trade unionists are expected to call for a national protest against the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 5, 2023

Global

· the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet through June 9. Top of their list of issues is the battle raging around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine. This is the largest nuclear power plant in all of Europe and has sustained significant damage on multiple occasions where power has been cut off from the facility. The Board will also discuss the Iran nuclear program. According to a confidential IAEA report this week, Iran has enriched their Uranium stockpiles by 20 percent since leaving the JCPOA (nuclear deal with the US, Germany, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA,

· The UN launches the Secretary-General’s Policy Brief Series - Global Digital Compact, Beyond Gross Domestic Product, and International Financial Architecture. More details can be found here.

· The World Trade Organization Secretariat holds a review of EU trade policies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will be meeting with Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Washington. Frederiksen is seen as a leading candidate to replace NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is planning to step down in October after nine years in the role.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May), ISM Services PMI (May), Factory Orders (April), ISM Services Business Activity (May), ISM Services New Orders (May)

· Brazil S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi. This will be the third leg of Austin’s Indo-Pacific visit, having traveled to Japan, Singapore (for the Shangri-La Conference), and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· India S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (May)

· Singapore Retail Sales (April)

· South Korea FX Reserves (May)

· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (May), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May), Company Gross Profits (Q1), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May), Business Inventories (Q1),

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Taiwan FX Reserves (May)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation (May), Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK has its June Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

· The Financial Times host an event titled “Investing in Space” starting Monday in London. Speakers include Bob Smith, CEO of Blue Origin, and Josef Aschbacher, director-general at the European Space Agency.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels. She will update them on the state of economic affairs in the EU and globally. EU members of Parliament are expected to focus on inflation and the ECB’s policy responses in fighting it.

· Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), PPI (April)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), New Car Registrations (May)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Sweden Services PMI (May)

· Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), New Car Registrations (May)

· Switzerland Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Slovakia Real Wages (Q1)

· Norway House Price Index (May)

· Serbia PPI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran celebrates Khordad National Uprising Day, commemorating events in 1963 when protests then-Shaw Mohammad Reza Pahlavi began. The Islamic Republic of Iran considers this the starting point of the Islamic Revolution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (May)

· Turkey Inflation (May), PPI (May), CPI (May)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa CEO Forum is held today and tomorrow in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Co-hosted by the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, more than 1,800 business leaders, investors, and policymakers are expected to attend.

· Equatorial Guinea celebrates President’s Day in honor of the current sitting president, Teodoro Obiang. Obiang has been president for more than 40 years and is the world’s longest-serving president (despite multiple coup attempts over the years).

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Global

· The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) for May is released.

· The UN will hold elections for new non-permanent members of the Security Council.

· The World Bank publishes the summer edition of the Global Economic Prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his UK and French counterparts in France during a D-Day commemoration. It is expected they collectively will discuss the situation in Ukraine, expanded mutual security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region, and climate change.

· Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to announce his bid for the presidency in New Hampshire.

· The Bloomberg Invest conference takes place Tuesday through Thursday. Notable speakers on the agenda include Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan, Nasdaq Inc. Chair and CEO Adena Friedman, and TIAA CEO Thasunda Brown Duckett, all speaking on Wednesday, and former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton, who speaks on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Redbook (June 3), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (June), LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)

· Canada Building Permits (April), Ivey PMI (May)

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (May)

· Colombia Inflation (May), Exports (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea observes Memorial Day, a public holiday honoring the brave soldiers who lost their lives in the Korean War.

· The Consumer Goods Forum begins in Kyoto, Japan. CEOs from more than 200 companies in 40 countries will attend. The main topics for discussion are supply chain security and climate change.

· China will officially launch its first domestically built cruise ship. The Adora Magic City will set sail from Shanghai. It can accommodate more than 5,000 passengers and is a joint venture of U.S. cruise ship operator Carnival and China State Shipbuilding Corporation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (April), Overtime (April)

· Philippines Inflation (May)

· Taiwan Inflation (May)

· Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (April), Current Account (Q1), Private House Approvals (April)

· Thailand Inflation (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 79th anniversary of the Normandy Invasion. French President Emmanuel Macron will make an official visit before flying to Germany (see next item).

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet in Potsdam, Germany, where they will discuss the NATO Summit being held in July as well as the agenda of the European Council.

· The International Court of Justice will begin hearing a case brought by Ukraine charging Russia with being responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014.

· France continues to experience massive strikes and protests over the recently passed pension reform legislation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (May), Retail Sales (April)

· Germany Factory Orders (April), HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May)

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)

· Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Romania PPI (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retails Sales (April)

· Slovakia GDP (Q1)

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Saudi Arabia through June 8th. He will also participate in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial meeting to discuss mutual security, regional integration, and economic opportunities in the region. On June 8th, Secretary Blinken will co-host a ministerial meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh.

· Kuwait holds National Assembly elections. All 50 seats are up for election, and is the second snap election held in the last year.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt FX Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa GDP (Q1)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (January/February/March)

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Global

· The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will meet in Paris. The theme of the meeting is “Securing a Resilient Future: Shared values and global partnerships.” Of note, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai will meet with EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis on the sidelines in an effort to finalize a deal aimed at promoting trade in steel and aluminum produced with lower carbon emissions. Both sides have put a self-imposed deadline of October to reach an agreement. It will also release its global economic outlook.

· The 8th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency begins in Paris. The meeting brings together ministers, CEOs, and other senior leaders.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes committed by ISIL/Da'esh (UNITAD).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will host UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the White House. The two leaders are expected to discuss Ukraine, post-Brexit bilateral tensions, Northern Ireland’s political issues, climate change, and bilateral trade issues.

· Former Vice President Mike Pence will formally announce his bid for the presidency. He will do it via a CNN Town Hall.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), MBA Mortgage Indexes (June 2), Core Credit Change (April), Used Car Prices (May)

· Central Bank Canada Interest Rate Decision, Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Labor Productivity (Q1)

· Brazil Inflation (May), Car Production (May), New Car Registrations (May)

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Costa Rica Inflation (May)

· Colombia Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan FX Reserves (May), Coincident Index (April), Leading Economic Index (April)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe gives a speech at the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit in Sydney, Australia.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the Australia Banking Association Annual Conference in Sydney, Australia.

· Australia GDP (Q1), Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (May)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Hong Kong FX Reserves (May)

· Singapore FX Reserves (May)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets in Brussels with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate of the upcoming COP28 Summit. He is also the UAE’s Special envoy for Energy and Climate Change.

· Malta celebrates Sette Guiugno Day, one of the country’s five national holidays. It commemorates an uprising on June 7, 1919, against the British government. British troops opened fire on the crowd, killing four and wounding 50.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a speech at a conference on financial integration jointly organized by the European Commission and the ECB in Brussels

· ECB Board Member will moderate of panel entitled 'Completing the Banking Union: progress, perspective and priorities' at a conference on financial integration jointly organized by the European Commission and the ECB in Brussels. ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo will participate in the panel.

· Germany Industrial Production (April)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (May), BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Current Account (April), FX Reserves (May)

· Italy Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Industrial Production (April)

· Hungary Industrial Production (April), Monetary Policy Minutes

· Poland FX Reserves (May)

· Ukraine FX Reserves (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment (May), FX Reserves (May)

· Norway Industrial & Manufacturing Production Figures (April)

· Russia FX Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May), FX Reserves (May)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa FX Reserves (May), Business Confidence (Q2)

Thursday, June 8, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Jobless Claims (June 3), Wholesale Inventories (April)

· Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry gives a speech at the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce.

· Chile Inflation (May)

· Mexico Inflation (May)

· Paraguay Inflation (May)

· Argentina Industrial Production (April)

· Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Lujiazui Forum begins in Shanghai, China. The event, named after the financial district in Shanghai, will see financial services executives globally in attendance and will be co-chaired by China’s new financial regulator, Li Yunze.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FX Reserves (May)

· Japan GDP (Q1), Current Account (April), Bank Lending (May), Ecco Watchers Survey Outlook (May)

· Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

· Philippines Industrial Production (April), FX Reserves

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through June 9th in Luxembourg. They will discuss EU policy on asylum and migration, the overall state of the Schengen area, and enhanced strategies to combat violent extremism and terrorism.

· The heads of government of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union will attend their bloc's Intergovernmental Council meeting in Sochi, Russia.

· In the UK, workers at the Coca-Cola Europacific Partners – the largest soft drink plan in Europe – go on strike for 14 days over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. Many financial markets in Europe (and the ECB) will be closed.

· Eurozone GDP (Q1), Employment Change (Q1)

· France Payrolls (Q1)

· Ireland Inflation (May)

· Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Romania GDP (Q1)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (April), Inflation (May)

· Bulgaria GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)

· Egypt Inflation (May)

· Israel Business Confidence (May), Budget Balance (May)

· Turkey FX Reserves (June 2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account (Q1), Manufacturing Production (April)

· Ghana Inflation (May)

· Tanzania Inflation (May)

Friday, June 9, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US WASDE Report

· Canada Unemployment (May), Capacity Utilization (Q1)

· Mexico Industrial Production (April)

· El Salvador Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation (May), PPI (May)

· South Korea Current Account (April)

· India FX Reserves (June 2), Industrial Production (April), Manufacturing Production (April)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Unemployment (April)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (April), Unemployment (April)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate in a high-level seminar on Capital Requirements Regulation/Capital Requirements Directive organized by the European Parliament Liaison Office in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate in a roundtable discussion organized by Algebris Investments in Milan.

· Italy Industrial Production (April)

· Ireland CPI (May)

· Norway Inflation (May), CPI (May), PPI (May)

· Sweden GDP (April), New Orders (April), Construction Output (April), Household Consumption (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Romania Balance of Trade (April)`

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April), Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Bulgaria Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Serbia Industrial Production (April), Unemployment (Q1)

· Hungary Budget Balance (May)

· Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, Inflation (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Industrial Policy (April)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, June 10, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China total Social Financing (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), New Yuan Loans (May), Vehicle Sales (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Portugal Day, a national holiday. It commemorates the death of Luís de Camões, who is recognized as the country’s greatest national icon. He is most known for his poem, which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century and has since been accepted as a national poem in Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Montenegro holds parliamentary elections.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers will meet through June 13th in Brussels.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/2/23 Francis Kelly 6/2/23

The Global Week Ahead

May 28 - June 4, 2023

The coming week will be packed with several important market-moving events despite markets being closed in the US and most of Europe on Monday. First, the US Congress is expected to vote on a new debt ceiling increase package this week.

The House of Representatives will go first on Wednesday and the Senate on Friday, beating the likely debt ceiling breach on June 5th by only a few days. But our view is there remains some risk the deal gets blown up as numerous House Republicans are making it very clear they are not happy with the agreement. As they say, it is never over until it's over.

On the geopolitical stage, the foreign ministers of the BRICS nations gather in South Africa. The meeting is a precursor to the upcoming leaders' summit in August. While trade and economic development will be the primary issue discussed, there is no doubt the foreign ministers will be wrestling with the dilemma that if Russian President Vladimir Putin shows up for the August meeting because South Africa is required under international law to arrest him per a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. Also, this week, The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) begins in Singapore. Defense ministers from the Indo-Pacific will be there.

But we will be watching closely to see if US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has a sideline meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu – a meeting which will be seen as a significant thaw in relations between Washington and Beijing. However, Beijing has suggested there will not be a meeting since Li was sanctioned by the US in 2018 over relationships with Russia. One to watch, nonetheless.

Two sad historical events come into focus this week: The Libyian intelligence officer who helped plant the bomb that destroyed Pam Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988 will finally face charges in a US Court in Washington this week. And this coming Sunday is the 34th anniversary of the clampdown and subsequent massacre in Tienmen Square 34 years ago.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will watch US unemployment numbers released this Friday. The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book this week. In Europe, inflation data and labor market data will dominate the market’s attention, while ECB President Christine Lagarde gives several closely watched speeches. China releases PMI data as evidence mounts of slower growth there. And finally, a number of leading emerging markets will be releasing manufacturing PMIs and other important data this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Azerbaijan marks the founding of the Democratic Republic following its liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· India inaugurates its new parliament building in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain holds local and regional elections in 12 of the country’s 17 regions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey holds its Presidential run-off election.

· The Sultan of Oman arrives in Tehran, Iran, for talks on regional diplomatic and security issues through May 29th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Private Lending (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the National Day of Ethiopia, also known as the Downfall of the Derg, the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, May 29, 2023

Global

· The UN Climate and Clean Air Conference 2023 will take place in Thailand through June 2nd.

· The UN Second Session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution meets in Paris, France, to discuss how to develop internationally legally binding laws on plastic pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Memorial Day in the US. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Federal Tax Revenues, Net Payrolls (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will host the first South Korea-Pacific Islands Summit in Seoul, South Korea. The focus of the summit will be economic cooperation and planning for climate change.

· Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni will visit India in a state visit.

· The trial begins over the 2019 storming of the Hong Kong Legislative Council Complex.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Inflation (May), Balance of Trade (May), Retail Sales (May), Tourist Arrivals (May), Industrial Production (May)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

· Malaysia PPI (April)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

· Singapore Import & Export Prices (April), PPI (April)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Spring bank holiday in the UK. Financial markets are closed.

· In honor of Whit Sunday, financial markets in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, and several other countries are closed.

· Finland, Norway, and Sweden will host a NATO-affiliated multinational Arctic Challenge Exercise through June 9th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

· Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Nigeria, the former governor of Lagos state, Bola Tinubu, is to be inaugurated as Nigeria’s president after winning the country’s disputed presidential election in February with 36.6 percent of the vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Kenya Net Payrolls (April)

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the Annual Report to the General Assembly, as well as the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and South Sudan sanctions. Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· IAEA chief Rafael Grossi briefs is expected to brief the UN Security Council on a plan for Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Russia's military forces have knocked the nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – offline for the 7th time since the conflict began.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host the South American Leaders Summit in Brasilia, Brazil. There are a number of issues they intend to discuss, including deeper integration among the nations in areas such as infrastructure, health, and defense. They are also going to discuss the economic crisis in Argentina and Bolivia and how the nations can collectively work to prevent further economic damage to these countries and the broader region.

· Florida Governor and presidential candidate Ron DeSantis begin formally campaigning for president in Iowa as he travels the state.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will also speak.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor and Vice Chair-nominee Philip Jefferson gives a virtual speech at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the National Association for Business and Economics Monetary Policy and Outlook webinar.

· US S&P/Case Schiller Housing Index (March), CB Consumer Confidence (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

· Canada Current Account (Q1)

· Brazil PPI (April), Banking Lending (April), IGP-M Inflation (May)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

· Uruguay Unemployment (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan hosts Computex Taipei, a tech industry exhibition organized by the Taiwan External Trade Development Council and the Taipei Computer Association. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is expected to give the keynote speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment (April)

· Philippines PPI (April)

· Australia Building Permits (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-US Trade and Technology Council meets in Lulea, Sweden. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will all be in attendance. The Council meeting will allow both sides to discuss how to cope with China’s protectionist economic policies and practices. Additionally, they will discuss greater coordination on measures like screening outbound investments as well as restricting exports of semiconductors and other sensitive technologies to China.

· The EU General Affairs Council will be held in Brussels. They will discuss a number of issues, including ongoing tensions with Hungary over ‘values’ and the Rule of Law in Poland.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the impact of the War on Ukraine, packaging and packaging waste regulation, and marketing of frozen products.

· The Netherlands will hold elections for the upper house of its parliament.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with World Economic Forum Chairman Klaus Schwab in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The ECB releases their Financial Stability Review pre-release: Special feature on bank and non-bank interlinkages interactions of market and funding liquidity.

· Eurozone Economic Sentiment (May), Industrial Sentiment (May), Services Sentiment (May), Consumer Confidence (May), Loans to Households (April), Me Money Supply (April)

· Italy PPI (April), Industrial Sales (March)

· Spain Inflation (April), Retail Sales (April), Business Confidence (May)

· Bulgaria Business Confidence (May), PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Private Sector Credit (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the debt ceiling increase legislation.

· Libyan Abu Agila Mohammad Mas’ud Kheir Al-Marimi, who worked for Libya’s External Security Organization, is due to appear in a Washington court charged with the destruction of Pan Am flight 103 in 1988. An explosion in the aircraft that was flying over the Scottish town of Lockerbie resulted in the deaths of 270 people — including 190 Americans and 43 UK citizens — 11 of whom were on the ground.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Beige Book is released.

· Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum being held in Philadelphia.

· US MBA Mortgage Index Figures (May 26th), Redbook (May 27th), Chicago PMI (May), JOLTs Reports (April), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)

· Canada GDP (Q1)

· Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (April), Gross Debt to GDP (April), Unemployment (April)

· Colombia Cement Production (April), Unemployment (April)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will participate in joint naval exercises with the US, Australia, and South Korea off Jeju Island in South Korea. Interestingly, Japanese naval vessels will fly the “rising sun” flag over its vessels which has not been flown on Japanese naval vessels off the coast of South Korea since the end of World War II.

· Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will visit India through June 3rd.

· The Jeju Forum begins and runs through Friday in South Korea. The Forum focuses on challenges facing the greater Asia-Pacific region. Attendees and speakers include UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Specific issues to be addressed include a collective response to supply chain disruption and North Korea's growing nuclear armament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (May),

· Japan Retail Sales (April), Industrial Production (April), Consumer Confidence (May), Housing Starts (April), Construction Orders (April)

· India Government GDP (Q1), Infrastructure Output (April), Budget Value (March), M3 Money Supply (May 19th)

· South Korea Unemployment (April), Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Australia Construction Work Done (Q1), Housing Credit (April), Monthly CPI Indicator (April), Private Sector Credit (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

· Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Private Consumption (April), Current Account (April), Private Investment (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Sri Lanka Inflation (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia’s parliament elects the country’s next president. The role of the President is to represent the country internationally, while the Prime Minister has the main executive power.

· NATO begins a two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Oslo, Denmark.

· French President Emmanuel Macron to address the GLOBSEC 2023 forum in Bratislava, Slovakia.

· In the UK, the Aslef union, which works across 16 train operating companies, will stage a one-day walk-out. A further walkout is scheduled for Saturday, creating major disruption for Manchester City and Manchester United fans trying to reach London to watch the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann takes part in a panel discussion on central banks, inflation, and monetary policy, hosted by Swiss bank Pictet in Zurich, Switzerland.

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a Q&A session with high-school students at the final award ceremony of the Generation €uro Students' Award competition 2023 at the ECB headquarters.

· Germany Import Prices (April), Unemployment (May), Inflation (May)

· France Inflation (May), GDP Growth (Q1), PPI (April)

· Italy GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Spain current Account (March)

· Slovakia GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Hungary PPI (April)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (April), Retail Sales (April), Unemployment (Q1)

· Ukraine Current Account (April)

· Russia GDP (April) Unemployment (April), Retail Sales (April), Real Wage Growth (March), Industrial Production (April), Business Confidence (May), Corporate Profits (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria FX Reserves (May)

· South Africa Balance of Trade (April)

· Mozambique Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, June 1, 2023

Global

· Today is the first day of the meteorological summer.

· At the UN, the General Assembly will hold a plenary meeting in which the Election of the President of the General Assembly and the Vice-President of the General Assembly for its Seventy-eighth Session will take place.

· The Chair of the UN Security Council rotates from Switzerland to the UAE for the month of June.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden gives the commencement address at the Air Force Academy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will speak at the National Association for Business Economics Monetary Policy and Outlook webinar.

· US Challenger Job Cuts (May), ADP Employment Change (May), Unit Labor Costs (Q1), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (May 27th), S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Construction Spending (April), ISM Manufacturing Figures (May)

· Brazil GDP (Q1), S&P Manufacturing PMI (May), Balance of Trade (May)

· Canada S&P Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Mexico Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (April), Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Peru Inflation (May)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his counterpart Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, in Japan.

· Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi delivers a speech at Stanford University. He travels on to Washington for meetings with members of the US Congress and key think tanks. Gandhi was recently convicted and sentenced to two years in prison for defaming Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – which disqualified him from serving in the Indian Congress. He is currently appealing the conviction.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Japan Capital Spending (Q1), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (May), Building Capital Expenditures (Q1), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q1), Private Capital Expenditures (Q1), Retail Sales (April), Commodity Prices (May)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Hong Kong Retails Sales (April)

· Pakistan Inflation (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The second meeting of the European Political Community will take place in Bulboaca, Moldava. Heads of state from 47 European countries will gather heads of state and government from 47 European countries will attend. They are expected to discuss the impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine and mutual defense and economic security issues.

· As part of the European Political Community meeting, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev will hold peace talks in Brussels at a meeting chaired by European Council President Charles Michel. Also attending will be French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Helsinki, Finland, and gives a speech on Russia policy.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Luxembourg. The Council will discuss the “Fit for 55” package, namely the alternative fuel infrastructure regulation (AFIR) setting concrete targets for developing recharging and refueling points for cars, airplanes, and ships in the EU in the upcoming years, the RefuelEU aviation and FuelEU maritime regulations aiming to increase the uptake of sustainable fuels by aircraft and ships to reduce their environmental footprint.

· The Council of Baltic Sea States Foreign Ministers meeting takes place in Wismar, Germany, hosted by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB president Christine Lagarde speaks at the 27th German Savings Banks Conference 2023 ‘Because it’s about more than money’ in Hanover, Germany.

· ECB Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes released.

· Today is the 25th anniversary of the ECB replacing the European Monetary Institute.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a keynote speech at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector organized by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May), Unemployment (April), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Germany Retail Sales (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France Budget Balance (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (April), Mortgage Lending (April), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May), Mortgage Approvals (April), Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May), Unemployment (April)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hungary GDP (Q1), Balance of Trade (March), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein will marry in Amman. He is marrying Rajwa Al Saif, a Saudi architect. She will be the future Queen of Jordan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply April)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (May 26)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mali's constitutional referendum campaign will begin.

· Today is Madaka Day in Kenya, also known as Self-Governance Day, celebrating the independence of Kenya from the UK in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation (May)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May), Balance of Trade (January/February/March)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May), New Vehicle Sales (May)

Friday, June 2, 2023

Global

· The 2023 BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting begins in Cape Town, South Africa. This is a prelude to the 14th Annual BRICS Head of State Summit to be held on August 22 in Durban, South Africa. One of the key questions that will be quietly discussed is South Africa’s legal obligations under both international and domestic law to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin (if he participates in person). On March 17th, the International Criminal Co

· Former MasterCard Chief Executive Ajay Banga formally becomes President of the World Bank.

· The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate is expected to vote on the debt ceiling increase package.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Unemployment (May), Total Vehicles Sales (May)

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May), Industrial Production (April)

· Mexico Unemployment (April)

· Uruguay Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) begins in Singapore. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese will deliver the keynote address. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will also address the conference, and all eyes will be on whether there is a sideline meeting between Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Beijing has indicated they are unlikely to allow the meeting since Li was placed under sanctions in 2018 by the US in relation to Chinese imports of Russian arms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· India FX Reserves (May 26th), Bank Loan Growth (May 19th)

· Australia Home Loans (April)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Space Agency holds a conference in Vienna, Austria, entitled “Ready for the Moon,” to discuss EU space exploration.

· In the UK, rail workers who are members of the RMT union begin a 24-hour strike in their ongoing dispute with the train operating companies over pay.

· Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating when Italians were called to vote on forming a government after World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Industrial Production (April)

· Spain Unemployment (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The SpaceX CRS-28 flight to the International Space Station launches from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center with a Falcon 9 rocket, delivering supplies and equipment to the orbiting station.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Global

· OPEC+ holds a ministers’ meeting in person in Vienna, Austria.

· The 79th Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2023 takes place in Istanbul, Turkey, through June 6th. This is the world’s largest gathering of airline leaders.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The State of Mexico holds elections for governor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 34th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square clampdown and massacre.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco trade unionists are expected to call a national protest against the cost-of-living crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/27/23 Francis Kelly 5/27/23

The Global Week Ahead

May 21 - 28, 2023

This week, global markets will continue to be glued on the ongoing debt ceiling battle in Washington, D.C. Negotiations between House Republicans and the White House have become contentious (again). President Biden is curtailing his Asian travels to return to Washington to try and hammer out a deal. As of this writing, both sides are considerably far apart as the “X-Date” of June 1st rapidly approaches. We will send out separate updates to clients on what we are seeing with the debt ceiling negotiations, but our overall sense is that the talks will go right down to the wire. The big question is: Will they have enough time to pass whatever deal they hammer out and get enough support from the various Congressional factions before June 1st?

Also, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to announce his presidential candidacy this week. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) filed paperwork this past Friday and is expected to announce his intention to run for the presidency this week.

Elsewhere, APEC is holding high-level meetings in Detroit this week, and we will be watching carefully as U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai are expected to have sideline conversations with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. If this meeting takes place, markets should see it as a positive move which will likely lead to more high-level bilateral discussions between Washington and Beijing.

On the global economic and financial front, the European Central Bank celebrates its 25th anniversary this week. Regarding key data being reported this week, we look forward to reading the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday. Hopefully, it will give investors a sense if there is more upside in rate increases or if the Fed is finished (for now).

We will also look at global PMIs coming out this week and US PCE to understand whether inflation is under control and where the global economy is going in the months ahead.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 21, 2023

Global

· The UN’s Seventy-sixth World Health Assembly begins in Geneva, Switzerland, and goes through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile will hold Constitutional Council representative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a trilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Hiroshima, Japan.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Seoul to meet South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day state visit to Mongolia.

· East Timor holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds elections for 300 seats in the national parliament. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's New Democracy party leads in the polls, but the election may not produce an outright winner, leading to a second vote in July, which is expected.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia will put its first astronauts into space on the SpaceX Axiom Mission 2 rocket.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, May 22, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). Volker Perthes, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Sudan and Head of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan, will be in New York to brief Council members.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade ministers meeting will be held in Detroit, Michigan. On the sidelines, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai are expected to meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao – a significant event that is expected to help kick-start high-level talks between Washington and Beijing.

· U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly continues visits to Jamaica, Colombia, Chile, and Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will speak at a Richmond Fed event entitled “Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Uncertainty and Prospects for Disruptive Investments” in Richmond, Virginia.

· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates in a fireside chat at the American Gas Association Financial Forum in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a virtual fireside chat at the NABE – Banque de France International Economic Symposium being held in Paris, France.

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to co-chair a summit of Pacific Island leaders with his counterpart in Papua New Guinea, James Marape. President Biden was scheduled to attend but had to cancel to return to Washington to deal with the debt crisis. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend.

· Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra will visit China through Wednesday. The Netherlands is among China's largest trade partners in the European Union. While their trade cooperation significantly increased over the past years, their bilateral relations deteriorated after the Dutch government raised issues related to human rights in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Lona Prime Rate 5Y

· Japan Machinery Orders (March), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Taiwan Export Orders (April), Unemployment (April)

· Hong Kong Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels through May 25th. The EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the Russian War on Ukraine, the situation in the Balkans, Central Asia, and Tunisia, and then approve the Civilian SDP Compact.

· The EU-Republic of Korea Summit will be held in Brussels. It marks the 60th anniversary of EU-South Korean diplomatic relations. They are expected to discuss the Russian War on Ukraine, trade issues, including market access for agri-food products, labor issues, sustainable issues, and digital and data protection

· The EU Competitive Council meets through May 23rd. they are expected to discuss the issue of eco-design requirements for sustainable products, long-term competitiveness in communications, and the Critical Raw Materials Act.

· In the UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union who work as customer service advisors on personal taxation go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindo gives opening remarks at a workshop entitled "Policy proposals to reduce the climate insurance protection gap" jointly organized by ECB and EIOPA in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Philip Lane Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel, "The Great Volatility: How to cope? What is different this time? How to manage side effects and tradeoffs?" at the 50th OeNB Economics Conference and 60th SUERF Anniversary Conference "Monetary policy in uncertain times: Towards robustness and resilience" in Vienna, Austria.

· ECB Board Member William Elderson gives a guest lecture at the University of Utrecht in Utrecht, Germany.

· Eurozone Construction Output (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

· Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Lebanon Inflation (April – currently 263%)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (April), M2 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The annual meetings of the board of governors of the African Development Bank and the African Development Fund takes place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, through May 26th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict: Ensuring the security and dignity of civilians in conflict: Addressing food insecurity and protecting essential services. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu give keynote remarks at the Bank on National Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors Jason Furman participate on a panel at the Brookings Institution entitled “The Fed: Lessons learned from the past three years” in Washington, D.C.

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hosts a summit for South American leaders in Brasília.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Redbook, Richmond Red Manufacturing Index and Services Index (May), Building Permits (April)

· Canada PPI (April), Raw Material Prices (March)

· Peru GDP (Q1)

· Argentina Economic Activity (March)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

· Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin begins a two-day visit to Beijing. He is bringing a large business delegation in the hope of securing new trade agreements. He will conclude his visit by attending the Russia-China Business Forum in Shanghai.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Westpac Leading Index (April)

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore Current Account (Q1), CPI (April), Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The President of Republika Srpska (the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina), Milorad Dodik, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Dodik is on the US Treasury’s sanctions list for alleged corruption and for threatening Bosnian and regional stability. The purpose of the meeting is to seek greater cooperation from Russia.

· The EU European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.

· The London Defense Conference begins and runs through Thursday. Among the featured speakers will be Ukraine and U.K. government representatives, with debates on Indo-Pacific and European security and a speech by Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference, "What is the state of Eurozone financial integration in 2023?" organized by the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a conversation with
Robert Priester, Institute of International Finance, at the 2023 IIF European Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat at the 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference "What is the state of Eurozone financial integration in 2023?" organized by Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Eurozone Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Current Account (March)

· France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Germany Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· UK Public Sector Borrowing (April), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Italy Current Account (March)

· Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (May)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May), Unemployment (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg hosts the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, Qatar. Among those scheduled to speak are TikTok CEO Shou Chew, Blackstone Chair & CEO Stephen Schwartzman, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the Governments of Italy, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and the United States, in collaboration with the Governments of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, will convene a High-level Pledging Event to Support the Humanitarian Response in the Horn of Africa. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· The UN in Geneva will hold a press conference on Global Climate Update with predictions for 2023-2027. Prof Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Dr Leon Hermanson, Met Office climate scientist, will brief reporters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability holds a hearing on “A Failure of Supervision: Bank Failures and the San Francisco Federal Reserve.”

· Ecuador celebrates the Battle of Pichincha Day, a national holiday marking the battle on May 24, 1822, when 3,000 rebel troops fought against Spanish troops for the liberation of the Quito province.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Minutes

· US MBA Mortgage Index Figures (May 19th)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (April), Wholesale Sales (April)

· Mexico Inflation Figures (May)

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) Leaders’ Summit is to be held in Sydney, Australia. Composed of the leaders of India, Japan, Australia, and the US, they are expected to discuss how to build a stronger multilateral security apparatus in the Indo-Pacific. President Biden will not be attending as he is expected to return to the US to deal with the pending debt ceiling crisis.

· South Korea launches its third Nuri rocket, carrying an observation satellite into low Earth orbit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (May)

· Japan Tankan Index (May)

· Australia Reserve Bank Payments System Board Meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia Head of Domestic Markets David Jacobs speaks at the Australia Fixed Income Forum in Tokyo, Japan.

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit convenes in London and runs through Thursday. Among the speakers will be Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Elon Musk, and UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher.

· In the UK, union workers at the GSK pharmaceutical company go on strike at six sites across England and Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the celebration to mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governors Andrew Bailey speaks at the Net Zero Delivery Summit in London.

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions (May)

· UK Inflation (April), CPI (April), Retail Prices (April), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May), Car Production (April)

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Russia PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Business Confidence (May), Capacity Utilization (May)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Eritrea celebrates Independence Day, marking the day Eritrean People’s Liberation Front forces moved into the capital city of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war against the Ethiopian military regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation (April)

· Nigeria GDP (Q1)

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Peace and security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to file paperwork formally declaring his candidacy for the US presidency.

· Argentina celebrates May Revolution Day, marking the day when Argentinians first began to fight for independence from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April), Corporate Profits (Q1), GDP Price Index (Q1), GDP Growth Rate Index (Q1), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May 20th), Real Consumer Spending (Q1), Core CPE Prices (Q1), Pending Home Sales (April), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (May)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May), Average Weekly Earnings (March)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April), Current Account (Q1)

· Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 28th Future of Asia, hosted by Nikkei, begins in Tokyo. Speakers at the two-day event include Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Don Pramudwinai, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang, Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith

· China hosts the annual Zhongguancun Forum, which focuses on cutting-edge technology, including AI and quantum science. The event, being held in Beijing, will have participants from more than 80 countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPI (April)

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (March), Leading Index (March)

· Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenian President Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev will hold peace talks in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin will host.

· EU Trade Ministers meet as part of the Foreign Affairs Council meetings in Brussels. They will talk about trade relations with the U.S. (in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act), trade relations with China, and preparation for the 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization.

· In the UK, more than 1,400 security officers at Heathrow Airport resume strikes over pay, part of an eight-day action throughout May. Significant delays are expected at the airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindos gives a presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2022 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Jonathan Haskel (a member of the Monetary Policy Committee) gives a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June), GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

· France Business Confidence (May), Business Climate Indicator (May)

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (May), IPCA CPI (May)

· Spain PPI (April)

· Serbia Business Confidence (May), Tourist Arrivals (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1948 when they were granted sovereignty from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (March)

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (April), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Zimbabwe Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, May 26, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when the country was granted independence from Great Britain in 1966.

· Bermuda celebrates Bermuda Day, a national holiday, and all financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Personal Income (April), Core PCE Price Index (April), Durable Goods Orders (April), Retail Inventories (April), Wholesale Inventories (April), Michigan Consumer Expectations (May), Michigan Current Conditions (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)

· Canada Budget Balance (March)

· Brazil Current Account (April), Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Mexico GDP (Q1), Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Hong Kong celebrates Buddha’s Birthday, a holiday with all financial markets being closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan took Core CPI (May), Coincident Index (March), Leading Economic Index (March)

· India FX Reserves (May 19th)

· Singapore GDP (Q1)

· Australia Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore Industrial Production (April)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Malaysia Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was first briefly declared independent in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat on "European banking vigilance and the integration to be completed" at the 18th edition of the Trento Festival of Economics in Trento, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion "How quickly will inflation return to target?" at the 29th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

· France Consumer Confidence (May), Unemployment (April)

· Italy Business Confidence (May), Consumer Confidence (May)

· UK Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Unemployment (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi visits China for meetings regarding mining contracts and security cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP (Q1)

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mauritania holds the second round of voting for its parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Azerbaijan marks the founding of the Democratic Republic following its liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· India inaugurates its new parliament building in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain holds local and regional elections in 12 of the country’s 17 regions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey holds its Presidential run-off election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Private Lending (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the National Day of Ethiopia, also known as the Downfall of the Derg, the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

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June 23 - 25, 2023

Chart of the Week

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June 18 - 25, 2023

Sunday, June 18, 2023

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June 16 - 18, 2023

Charts of the Week

How Capping Methane Emissions in Turkmenistan Can Be A Game Changer in the Climate Change Fight

June 11 - 18, 2023

Sunday, June 11, 2023

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June 9 - 11, 2023

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June 4 - 11, 2023

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June 2 - 4, 2023

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May 28 - June 4, 2023

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