Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 7/2/23 Francis Kelly 7/2/23

The Global Week Ahead

July 2 - 9, 2023

Happy Independence Day from Washington, D.C. It is exceptionally quiet here. Congress was out of session last week and will be out this week. Seemingly all of the Nation’s Capital has fled to the beaches or the mountains. But then again, so has most of Wall Street and the rest of Corporate America, as everyone seems to be taking Monday off, too. But there is still plenty going on around the world this week.

First, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Beijing Wednesday. It would be a quick and significant follow-up to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit two weeks ago. Her meetings with Chinese officials will cover many issues, most importantly, potential sanctions relief for some senior Chinese officials and discussions with China on how to work together to restructure debt in several emerging markets struggling with global conditions and the weight of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative debt. While no significant breakthroughs are expected, it will be seen by markets as another solid building block in stabilizing the US-China relationship.

Also in Asia this week, India will virtually chair the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Leaders’ Summit. China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – have been invited. In addition, Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia have been invited in their role as Observer States. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to give a speech. The SCO is an important gauge of the state of political and diplomatic relations in greater Eurasia – which, statistically, includes 40 percent of the world’s population.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. jobs report and the Fed’s FOMC minutes, released Wednesday. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey and this week’s E.U. inflation figures top the list of reports to watch coming out of the E.U. Markets will also be watching OPEC’s 8th International Seminar to get a sense of where oil pricing might be headed. And in Asia, China’s Caixin PMIs are out Monday.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week - please let us know if you have any questions:

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron has canceled his scheduled three-day state visit to Germany due to a wave of violence across Paris due to the killing of a teenager of North African descent.

· Spain takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union. They hold the chair until December 31, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, July 3, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina will host a summit for leaders of the Mercosur customs union. The Presidency of the organization will be passed to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva (Lula), who is expected to relaunch Mercosur as a “key instrument” of the international economic policy of its member states.

· CARICOM’s(the Caribbean Community) 45th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government is held in Trinidad. UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the group.

· A US Federal Court could rule as soon as today on the $75 billion Microsoft-Activision acquisition. A negative ruling would likely scuttle the deal, which the Federal Trade Commission is asking of the Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), ISM Manufacturing PMIs (June), Construction Spending (May)

· Mexico Business Confidence (June), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), Balance of Trade (June), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s parliament will meet to begin choosing a new prime minister per a royal decree by the King. The country’s election commission certified the winners of the elections – all 500 seats in the lower house who have to elect a speaker and two deputy speakers. Once they have done that, a joint session with the senate will be called to choose the new prime minister. The most likely candidate is Pita Limjaroenrat, a Harvard-trained businessman who leads the Move Forward Party and helped pull off a stunning upset victory in May.

· Indonesian President Joko Widodo travels to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the 8th annual Australia-Indonesia Leaders meeting. They will discuss ways to increase trade and work mutually on climate issues.

· Okinawa Governor Denny. Tamaki visits China for four days. Tamaki is leading a delegation of members of the Japan International Trade Promotion Association. The significance of this is that Chinese President Xi last month caused a stir while visiting a museum in Beijing that included a section on Okinawa and then commenting that the island is “Ryuku” – essentially, that the island is historically once part of China prior to being annexed by Japan in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Japan Tankan Manufacturing Indexes (Q2)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), Tourist Arrivals (May), Inflation Rate (June)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (June), Commodity Prices (June), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June), Building Permits May), Home Loans (May), Investment Lending for Homes (May), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June), Private House Approvals (May), Building Permits (May)

· Singapore URA Property Index (Q2), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Pakistan Inflation (June), Wholesale Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (June)

· France Budget Balance (May), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

· Norway DN Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (April)

· Sweden Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Switzerland Inflation (June), CPI (June), Procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Bank Meeting Summary, Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June), Auto Sales (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa50 Infra for Africa Forum and General Shareholders Meeting is held in Février, Lomé. The event is hosted by the African Development Bank.

· Zambia observes Heroes’ Day, honoring those who fought for the country’s independence which was won in 1964.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PIM (June), New Vehicle Sales (June)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PIMI (June)

· Angola FX Reserves (June)

Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday. Federal and state governments are closed, as are banks and financial markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June), Industrial Production (May)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually with India chairing. China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – have been invited. In addition, Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia have been invited in their role as Observer States. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to give a speech.

· The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, will visit Japan through July 7 regarding the Fukushima wastewater release plan. It is expected the Japanese government is likely to release the plan once following the visit.

· The Federated States of Micronesia hold a constitutional referendum on a number of issues ranging from the threshold going forward on percentages needed to make constitutional changes, citizenship, revenue derived from fishing license fees, seabed mining, and the establishment of an Independent Prosecutors Office.

· The Philippines observes Republic Day – which is also called Philippine-American Friendship Day – celebrating the Treaty of Manila, which was signed in 1946, giving the country its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation (June), CPI (June), FX Reserves (June)

· Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Business Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, to discuss ongoing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Spain Unemployment (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Romania PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (June)

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (June), GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The inaugural African Voluntary Carbon Credits Market Forum is held in Zimbabwe. The aim of the meeting is to create a pan-African Register of Carbon Credits. To be traded on the Victoria Stock Exchange.

· Today is Rwanda Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when the country was liberated from the control of the dictatorship of Juvénal Habyarimana in 1994.

· Zambia celebrates Unity Day (one day after celebrating Hero’s Day), a national holiday promoting unity among the 70+ ethnic groups that make up the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya PMI (June)

· Ghana PMI (June)

· South Africa PMI (June)

Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Global

· OPEC holds its 8th International Seminar through July 6.

· The UN Security Council will hold an open debate in connection with “How to prevent and respond to grave violations against children in armed conflict” under the agenda item “Children and armed conflict.”

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to be briefed and discuss the situation in Venezuela.

· William O'Neill, the UN’s Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Haiti, will hold a hybrid briefing on his recent visit to Haiti at the United Nations.

· The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) will release the World Investment Report 2023, "Investing in sustainable energy for all"”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen with be in Beijing to meet with senior officials to discuss a multitude of issues. She will also meet with the heads of US companies operating in China to discuss trade issues.

· Venezuela technically celebrates its Independence Day, marking when it became the first independent state in South America in 1821. Of course, it is not under the domain of a dictatorship.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams will speak at the Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association at the New York Fed.

· US Federal Reserve Board Open Markets Minutes, MBA Mortgage Market Index (June 30), Redbook (July 1), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (July), Factory Orders (May), LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

· Brazil S&P Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

· Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes, Exports (May), PPI (June)

· Uruguay Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakhstan celebrates Capital City Day, a national holiday in honor of the city, Nur-Sultan, being named the new capital (it was previously Almaty).

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· India S&P Global Composite & Global Services PMIs (June)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (June), Retail Sales (May)

· Taiwan FX Reserves (June)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)

· Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Retail Sales (May), Judo Bank Services & Bank Composite PMIs (June), Ai Group Industry Index (June), Ai Group Construction Index (June), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)

· Philippines Inflation (June)

· Thailand Inflation (June)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· King Charles and Queen Camilla will be crowned for a second time at a ceremony in Scotland known as the Service of Dedication and Thanksgiving.

· In England, schoolteachers in the National Education Union resume strike action over pay, with another strike planned for Friday.

· Armenia celebrates Constitution Day, marking the adoption of its post-Soviet constitution being adopted in 1994.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June), PPI (May)

· France Industrial Production (May), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (June), New Car Sales (June)

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Spain Industrial Policy (May), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (June), Unemployment (June)

· Norway House Price Index (June)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

· Sweden Services PMI (June)

· Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Serbia PPI (June)

· Hungary Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Global Services PMIs (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when the country won its independence from France in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Inflation (June), PPI (June), CPI (June), FX Reserves (June 23), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Lebanon BLOM PMI (June)

· Israel Business Confidence (June), Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Qatar GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Comoros celebrates National Day, marking the anniversary of the country’s independence from France in 1975.

· Malawi celebrates Independence Day, marking its independence from the UK in 1964.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (June)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (June)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (June)

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Global

· New York Federal Reserve Bank Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) monthly update is released.

· The UN-sponsored The AI for Good Global Summit takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

· In Geneva, there will be a press conference on the situation of human rights in Myanmar by Thomas Andrews, United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO Lori Logan will speak at the Central Bank Research Association Annual Meeting being held at the New York Fed.

· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June), Initial Jobless Claims (July 1), Challenger Job Cuts (June), ADP Employment Change (June), ISM Services PMI (June), JOLTS Job Openings (May), ISM Services Employment/New Orders/Services Prices Reports (June), New Vehicle Sales (June)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Colombia Inflation (June)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Industrial Production (May)

· Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is held in Shanghai, China, through July 8. The organizers point out that “The previous five WAICs attracted more than 600,000 visitors in person and 1.5 billion online. Over 200 major industrial projects with a total investment of CNY70 billion (USD 9.6 billion) were signed at previous events. Moreover, 58 major application scenarios were unveiled, and more than 300 products were launched in the domestic and foreign markets.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Taiwan Inflation (June)

· Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Erdogan is expected to meet with the Swedish Prime Minister in Brussels to discuss Sweden’s accession to NATO. The meeting, hosted by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, hopes to finalize a deal in advance of the NATO Summit on July 11-12.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (June), Retail Sales (May)

· Germany Factory Orders (May), HCOB Construction PMI (June)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (June)

· Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Romania Retail Sales (May)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey FX Reserves (June 30)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Friday, July 7, 2023

Global

· The G7 Justice Ministers will meet in Tokyo. Justice Ministers from ASEAN countries have been invited to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Unemployment (June), Average Weekly Hours (June), Government Payrolls (June)

· Canada Unemployment (June), Ivey PMI (June)

· Brazil Car Production (June)

· Mexico Inflation (June), Auto Exports (June), Auto Production (June)

· Chile Inflation (June), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· El Salvador Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Solomon Islands celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when the UK granted the country its independence in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FX Reserves (June)

· Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May), Household Spending (May), Overtime Pay (May), Average Cash Earnings (May), FX Reserves (June)

· South Korea Current Account (May)

· India FX Reserves (June 30)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Singapore FX Reserves (June)

· Hong Kong FX Reserves (June)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (June)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)

· Philippines Unemployment (May), Industrial Production (May), FX Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s Bundestag going into summer break, and all 736 members of Parliament will be out of session until September.

· In the UK, the Church of England’s General Synod, the institution’s main legislative body, begins a five-day meeting at York University. The agenda includes further discussion on contentious proposals for same-sex marriage blessings and a report on climate change from the church’s national investing bodies.

· Today is the annual Running of the Bulls in Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel "Où sont les femmes?" at 23rd edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2023 in Aix-en-Provence , France.

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a keynote at a workshop, "Examining the inflationary surge affecting economies around the world," organized by King's College in London.

· Germany Industrial Production (May)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), FX Reserves (June)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (June), Labor Productivity (Q1), BBA Mortgage Rate (June)

· Italy retail Sales (May)

· Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves (June)

· Ukraine FX Reserves (June)

· Norway Industrial Production (May), GDP (May), Manufacturing Production (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June), FX Reserves (June)

· Sweden GDP (May), Construction Output (May), Household Consumption (May), Industrial Production (May), New Orders (May)

· Hungary Inflation (June)

· Romania GDP (Q1)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

· Russia FX Reserves (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation (June), FX Reserves (June)

· Israel FX Reserves (June)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya is bracing for protests over the recent tax law passed by parliament. Protesters believe the change has raised the cost of living significantly.

· The African Union hosts African Integration Day 2023. The theme this year is “Accelerating Job Creation, Digital and Financial Inclusion in the AfCFTA Market.”

· Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, celebrating the unifying of the country under several political parties. It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Jakarta, Indonesia, through July 14.

· The 4th Round of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity negotiations take place in Busan, South Korea.

· Today is the one-year anniversary of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia will inaugurate President-elect Edgars Rinkevics in Riga. He has been a long-serving and highly popular foreign minister and becomes the country’s first gay president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, July 9, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Senior officials from the US Trade Representative and US Commerce Department will travel to Busan, South Korea, for the fourth negotiating round of the Ind-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) through July 15.

· Today is Independence Day in Argentina, marking the day in 1816 when the Congress of Tucumán declared the independence of the United Provinces of South America, thus creating Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Uzbekistan holds presidential elections.

· Palau celebrates Constitution Day, marking the day the country decided not to join the rest of Micronesia and instead adopted its own Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

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Francis Kelly 6/30/23 Francis Kelly 6/30/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 25 - July 2, 2023

In the wake of an astonishing and, quite frankly, bizarre, failed coup attempt in Russia by the mercenary Wagner Group, capitals and markets worldwide will undoubtedly be seeking answers as to what happens next in Moscow and Ukraine. NATO leaders will be gathering in the Hague this week to prepare for the NATO Summit (July 11-12) in Vilnius. Still, they will be talking and analyzing the situation in Russia closely.

Also this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin, China. We will be watching for any official Chinese assessments of the coup attempt and directional indicators for the next steps in the US-China relationship following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing last week.

In the EU, the European Council convenes to discuss various issues ranging from the War in Ukraine to a recently proposed EU Economic Security Strategy dealing with trade with China. Later in the week (Sunday), French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Germany, where Ukraine, China, and the EU’s economic outlook will be paramount discussion issues.

On the global economic front, we will watch the European Central Bank’s Central Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal. Central bank chiefs from around the world – including Fed Chair Jay Powell – will be speaking and discussing various economic and financial issues.

Markets will be watching several key economic reports this week, particularly the US and Eurozone CPI releases, China’s PMIs, and inflation data from Canada, France, and Italy.

Finally, we will be looking at the Federal Reserve Board’s Stress Test results, which are being released on Wednesday, to get a fuller sense of the strength of the major US banks.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Global

· Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress is in recess this week and next week for the 4th of July holiday.

· Guatemala holds central elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives panel remarks before the closed Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture organized by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will visit Beijing, China, through June 28.

· The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan will make a port call to Da Nang, Vietnam, through June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds parliamentary run-off elections. If no clear winners emerge, a 3rd run-off will be held in August.

· The Nordic-Canada Prime Ministers meeting is held in Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland. The topics for discussion will include security issues around the Arctic and European defense.

· Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating the day when the country declared independence from Yugoslavia.

· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking the day in 1991 when the country declared its independence from Yugoslavia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mozambique Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 26, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The United States and Japan will hold an Extended Deterrence Dialogue in the United States through June 27.

· Argentine President Alberto Fernandez visits Brasília, Brazil, for meetings with Brazilian President Lula.

· Toronto holds mayoral elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), Wholesale Sales (May)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June), Current Account (May), FDI (May), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Economic Activity (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and a delegation of business executives will visit China through June 30. New Zealand relies on China for approximately 25 percent of its exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions Released, Coincident Index (April), Leading Economic Index (April)

· Singapore Industrial Production (May)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to Lithuania to prepare for the NATO Summit on July 11-12. He will also attend Exercise Griffin Storm 2023.

· EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange of views on the relations between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean ahead of the EU-CELAC summit planned for 17-18 July 2023.

· The Weimar Triangle talks with Finance Minister Christian Lindner, France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, and Poland's Finance Minister Magdalena Rzeczkowska takes place in Ettersburg, Germany.

· EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 27.

· The EU-Tajikistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank hosts their Forum on Central Banking in Sintra Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde will give opening remarks.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a roundtable discussion on "Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) sustainability in the financial sector" at Point Zero Forum organized by Banca d'Italia.

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions/Expectations Reports (May)

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (June)

· Spain PPI (May)

· Poland Unemployment (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Madagascar celebrates Independence Day.

· Somalia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Zimbabwe Inflation (June)

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and The Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Walt Nauta, a senior aide to former president Donald Trump, is to be arraigned on numerous charges, including conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, and corruptly concealing a document or record in a Miami Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Durable Goods Orders (May), Redbook (June 24), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April), Home Prices (April), CB Consumer Confidence (June), New Home Sales (May), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Indexes (June), Dallas Fed Services Indexes (June), Building Permits (May)

· Canada Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes Released, IPCA CPI (June)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in the city of Tianjin, an event looking to facilitate dialogue on the economy between the public and private sectors. More than 1,500 participants are expected to attend the three-day event hosted by the World Economic Forum.

· Today is Tajikistan’s National Day of Unity.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June), Unemployment (May)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Philippines Budget Balance (May)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, will co-host a working dinner for NATO Heads of State at the Hague. The primary points for discussion will be preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11-12 and the situation in Ukraine.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets through June 30 in Luxembourg to discuss European electoral law.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta chairs session 1, "Monetary policy in the face of multiple supply shocks," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. Later in the day, ECB Board Member Frank Elderson chairs session 2: "Assessing the costs of inflation." Followed by ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairing a panel “structural change in energy markets and implications for Inflation”

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra gives a speech at UK Women in Economics Network on "tools for success” in London.

· Italy Business Confidence (June)

· Sweden Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), PPI (May),

· Hungary Current Account (Q1)

· Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Djibouti celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Global

· Today is the start of Eid al-Adha, the second and largest of the two main Islamic holidays.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2023 in Sintra, Portugal.

· US Bank Stress Tests, MBA Mortgage Market Index (June 23), Goods Trade Balance (May), Retail Inventories (May), Wholesale Inventories (May)

· Brazil Bank Lending (May), Net Payrolls (May)

· Uruguay Unemployment (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (May)

· India M3 Money Supply (June 16)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

· Singapore Import & Export Prices (May), PPI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas in Brussels. Later in eh day, she meets with the Prime Minister of Bulgaria Nikolai Denkov, and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.

· Today is Ukraine Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs session 3: "Monetary policy normalization" and session 3: “the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy in the context of high inflation’ at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Later in the day, ECB Board Member Philip Lane chairs a panel, “Lessons from recent experiences in Macroeconomic forecasting.” This is followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a policy panel by Ms. Lagarde and then gives closing remarks for the Forum.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the introductory statement at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels

· Eurozone Loans to Households and Companies (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (July)

· France Consumer Confidence (June)

· Italy PPI (May), Inflation Rate (June), CPI (June), Retail Sales (May), Industrial Sales (May)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June), Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· Spain Retail Sales (May)

· Norway Household Consumption (May), Retail Sales (May)

· Sweden Household Lending Growth (May)

· Russia GDP (May), Unemployment (May), Real Wages (April), Business Confidence (June), Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Business Confidence (June), Capacity Utilization (June)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a dialogue with Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos at the Banco de España Fourth Conference on Financial Stability in Madrid, Spain.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the US economic outlook before the Irish Association of Investment Managers Annual Dinner in Dublin, Ireland.

· US GDP (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (June 24), PCE Prices (Q1), Real Consumer Spending (Q10, Pending Home Sales (May)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June), Average Weekly Earnings (April)

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June), PPI (May)

· Chile Unemployment (May)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (June), Current Account (q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Finance ministers from South Korea and Japan will meet in Tokyo, Japan, for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Retail Sales (May), Consumer Confidence (June)

· South Korea Business Confidence (June)

· Australia Retail Sales (May)

· Vietnam GDP (Q2), Balance of Trade (June), Industrial Production (June), Inflation (June), Tourist Arrivals (June), FDI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council meets in Brussels through June 30. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the state of the EU economy, and how to enhance the EU’s security and defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

· External member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England Silvana Tenreyro delivers a speech at the Society of Professional Economists, hosted at the Resolution Foundation in London.

· ECB Economic Bulletin, Economic Sentiment (June), Selling Price Expectations (June), Services Sentiment (June), Consumer Confidence (June), Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

· Germany Inflation (June)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (May), Mortgage Lending (May)

· Spain Inflation (June), Business confidence (June)

· Ireland Inflation (June)

· Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report, Retail Sales (May), Business Confidence (June), Consumer Confidence (June)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)

· Montenegro Balance of Trade (May), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Seychelles celebrates Independence Day.

· Today is Independence Day in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q2), PPI (May)

Friday, June 30, 2023

Global

· The UK takes over the chair of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Core PCE Price Index (May), Personal Income (May), Chicago PMI (June), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June)

· Canada GDP (April), Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

· Mexico Unemployment (May)

· Argentina Economic Activity (April)

· Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment (May)

· Costa Rica GDP (Q1), Unemployment (Q1), Current Account (Q1)

· El Salvador GDP (q1), Current Account (Q1)

· Uruguay Current Account (Q1), Balance of Trade (May)

· Paraguay GDP (Q1), Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs (June), Current Account (Q1)

· Japan Unemployment (May), CPI (June), Industrial Production (May), Housing Starts (May), Construction Orders (May)

· India Current Account (Q1), External Debt (Q1), Infrastructure Output (May), FX Reserves (June 23), Deposit Growth (June 16)

· South Korea Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May), Current Account (May), Private Consumption (May), Retail Sales (April)

· Philippines PPI (May), Business Confidence (Q2), Consumer Confidence (Q2)

· Australia Housing Credit (May), Private Sector Credit (May), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (June)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

· Sri Lanka Inflation (June), Current Account (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Wagner Group mercenaries to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Unemployment (May), Inflation (June), CPI (June)

· Germany Retail Sales (May), Import Prices (May), Unemployment (June)

· France Inflation (June), Household Consumption (May), PPI (May)

· Italy Unemployment (May)

· Spain Current Account (April)

· UK GDP (Q1), Current Account (Q1), Business Investment (Q1), Car Production (May), Nationwide Housing Prices (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (May), KOF Leading Indicators (June)

· Poland Inflation (June)

· Norway Unemployment (June)

· Romania Unemployment (May)

· Hungary PPI (May), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Bulgaria PPI (May)

· Slovakia Inflation (June)

· Serbia Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

· Ukraine Current Account (May)

· Russia Consumer Confidence (Q2)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Private Sector Credit (May), M3 Money Supply (May), Balance of Trade (May)

· Nigeria FX Reserves (June)

· Namibia GDP (Q1)

· Kenya GDP (Q1)

Saturday, July 1, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Canada Day, celebrating the nation’s unity and independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In China, a new anti-espionage law goes into effect with the aim of strengthening national security. The revised law will expand the scope of coverage to "all documents, data, materials, and articles" and allow law enforcers to inspect the baggage, electronic devices, and facilities of anyone, including foreigners suspected of spying.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 110th Tour de France begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burundi celebrates Independence Day.

· It is Republic Day in Ghana.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Germany.

· Spain takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union. They hold the chair until December 31, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/24/23 Francis Kelly 6/24/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 18 - 25, 2023

Geopolitics will again dominate the global market's attention this week as high-level diplomats from the US and China begin major trips seeking to calm global tensions. First, Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Beijing for meetings – the first time a US cabinet-level official has visited in three years. While no breakthroughs are anticipated, it may finally put a floor below the US-China relationship, which has been in free-fall for several years.

Later in the week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will travel to Germany and France to discuss EU-China relations, focusing on high-tech investments, the revival of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, Huawei's role in 5G networks, and other economic issues.

Meanwhile, in Washington this week, President Biden hosts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for meetings focusing on further tightening defense and technology sharing between the two nations – an increasingly important strategic alliance for both countries.

In Paris this week, the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact convenes with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and numerous leaders of southern nations. The Summit aims to build a more inclusive international financial system to fight inequalities and climate transition and move closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

On the global economic agenda this week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semiannual testimonies before the House of Representatives and Senate on the state of the economy. Several major market PMIs (Japan, Germany, and the US) are released, and the Bank of England decides whether to pursue another interest rate increase.

China will be deciding on domestic banks' prime loan rates fixings as markets increasingly worry about the strength – or lack thereof – of the second biggest economy.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Global

· Father’s Day is celebrated in a number of countries around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay celebrates Artigas’ Day, celebrating the birth of Jośe Gervasio Artigas, who is known as the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will travel to Germany and France to discuss EU-China relations with a focus on high tech investments, revival of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, Huawei’s role in 5G networks and other economic issues.

· China hosts the Straits Forum through June 19. The focus of the forum is to promote cultural and economic exchanges with Taiwan as well build stronger communications between the peoples of both countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Six African leaders will continue their visit to Moscow and Kyiv encouraging peace talks. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is leading the delegation, which also includes heads of state from Zambia, the Republic of Congo, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.

· Switzerland holds referendums nationwide on the implementation of the OECD/G20 project that ensures large international corporations are taxed at least 15 percent. They will also vote on the Federal Act which goes to reducing the countries uses of oil and natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mali holds a constitutional referendum. It was initially scheduled for July 9, 2017 but delayed. It was further delayed in 2021 following a coup d’état. The vote is over creating new regions in line with a 2015 agreement with separatists in Northern Mali.

· European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will travel to Nairobi, Kenya, to meet Kenyan President William Ruto and sign an interim EU-Kenya Economic Partnership Agreement.

· Today is Constitution Day in the Seychelles, marking the day the declaration of the referendum in 1993 making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 19, 2023

Global

· The Financial Action Task Force will meet in Paris through June 23. Among the issues they will consider is adding Russia to its “Black List” of countries for money laundering and/or supporting terrorist activities.

· The UN will hold a high-level pledging event for Sudan. The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN will hold the Third United Nations High-level Conference of Heads of Counter-Terrorism Agencies of Member States at UN Headquarters in New York.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Juneteenth National Independence Day, a federal holiday. Banks and stock exchanges are closed as is the federal government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US NAHB Housing Market Index (June)

· Canada Raw Materials Prices (May), PPI (May)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The North Korean Worker’s Party Plenary Session is expected to be held in Pyongyang.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as preparations for the July NATO Summit. He will also meet with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and attend the Air Defender 2023 exercises, NATO’s larges air deployment exercise in its history.

· Belarus hosts the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Ministerial Meeting. Leaders from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Georgia are expected to be in attendance.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets in Luxembourg. They will discuss electricity market design.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat on the occasion of the awarding of the German Bernacer prize in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairing session at conference "New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment" organized by Euro50 Group in Luxembourg.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a prize awarding ceremony of economic journalism organized by Asociación de Periodistas Europeos, KPMG and Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME) in Madrid

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (June), Unemployment (May)

· Israel Unemployment (May), Manufacturing Production (May)

· Jordan Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Nigerian government and the Nigerian Labour Congress, a federation of trade unions, will negotiate over fuel subsidy removal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Tuesday, June 20 , 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Italy and France. He is expected to discuss finalizing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement and funding for the Amazon Fund to fight further degradation of the rain forest.

· Opposition parties in Colombia are calling for nationwide protests against President Gustavo Petro and his Administration following the revelation of a scandal involving a nanny, a missing briefcase of cash, and illegal wiretapping. Gustavo Petro has seen political allies resign as an investigation has been launched by the Attorney General.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard gives a speech entitled “Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World” at the Barcelona School of Economics Forum in Barcelona, Spain.

· US Building Permits (May), Housing Starts (May), International Monetary Market Date

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenue (April)

· Mexico Retail Sales (April)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

· Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Taiwan Export Orders (May)

· Hong Kong Inflation (May)

· Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will participate in a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Forum in Sydney, RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the AI Group in Newcastle, Australia.

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 7th German-Chinese government consultations take place in Berlin, Germany.

· The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg where they will discuss CO2 emission targets for heavy-duty vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives introductory remarks at a conference on Counterparty Credit Risk in Frankfurt.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a panel at a conference on Counterparty Credit Risk in Frankfurt. Later in the day, she is the keynote speaker at the annual Workshop of the Council for the US and Italy. Her speech is entitled “The future of globalization: politics, business, lifestyles, brands” organized by the Council for the United States and Italy in Milan, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks on the occasion of the awarding of the German Bernacer prize in Madrid, Spain.

· Eurozone Current Account (April), Construction Output (April)

· Germany PPI (May)

· Italy Current Account (April)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)

· Serbia Current Account (April)

· Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (June)

· Slovenia Unemployment (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Government Debt (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya hosts the African Energy Forum through June 23.

· Eritrea holds Martyrs’ Day, commemorating all those who died fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (April)

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on peace and security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits President Biden. The focus of the meetings will be to seek new ways to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries. It is expected Biden will particularly focus on mutual defense and technology issues.

· The Organization of American States (OAS) holds its annual assembly in Washington, DC through June 23.

· The US Senate Banking Committee holds nomination hearings for Governor Philip Jefferson’s nomination to be Vice Chair for Monetary Policy and Lisa DeNell Cook and Adriana Debora Kugler to be members of the Board of Governors.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the US House Financial Services Committee to present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before the Wall Street Journal Global Food Forum in Chicago, Illinois.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Mester gives opening remarks at the Cleveland Fed Policy Summit 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.

· US MBA Mortgage Index Data (June 16), Redbook (June 17)

· Canada Central Bank Summary of Deliberations, Retail Sales (April), New Housing Price Index (May)

· Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Private Spending (Q1), Aggregate Demand (Q1), Aggregate Demand (Q1)

· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (May), Leading Indicator (May)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Adachi Seiji speaks to a group of local leaders in Kagoshima, Japan.

· Japan Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Reuters Tankan Index (June)

· South Korea PPI (May)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)

· Hong Kong Current Account (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development hosts the 2nd Ukraine Recovery Conference will be held in London. The focus of the meeting will be to discuss how to mobilize of international and private sector support for the economic and social stabilization of Ukraine. While there, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to meet with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, to press for Turkey to accept Sweden to become a member of NATO.

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will take part in a transatlantic conversation in Brussels on climate and security, together with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission, John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and Frans Timmermans, First Vice-President of the European Commission.

· The EU General Affairs Council holds an informal meeting in Luxembourg through June 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at "60 Jahre Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung" in Berlin, Germany.

· Eurozone New Car Registrations (May)

· UK Inflation (May), PPI (May), Public Sector Borrowing (May), Retail Sales (May), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)

· Italy Construction Output (April)

· Poland Unemployment (May), Industrial Production (May), PPI (May), Corporate Sector Wages (May)

· Switzerland National Bank Financial Stability Report released.

· Sweden Unemployment (May)

· Slovenia PPI (May), Current Account (April)

· Russia PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Business Confidence (June), Capacity Utilization (June)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who fought for independence from British and French colonization.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation (May)

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Global

· The Summit for a New Global Financial Pact will be held in Paris, France and go through June 23. The goal of the summit is to address debt distress in many countries and how nations can better respond to climate change.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Somalia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee giving the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking and Central Bank of Ireland conference, Dublin, Ireland.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

· US Current Account (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (June 17), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May), Existing Home Sales (May), CB Leading Index (May), Kansas Fed Composite Index (June)

· Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Mid-month Inflation (June)

· Argentina GDP (Q1), Unemployment (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Noguchi Asahi addresses local leaders in Okinawa.

· Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (May), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will speak to the Bundestag to lay out his priorities ahead of the EU Leaders Summit that takes place next week. He leaves that evening for a dinner meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and then will participate in the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank General Council Meeting

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta Fabio Panetta gives a speech at the fifth annual joint conference of the Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on CCP risk management in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a roundtable organized by the Spanish association of financial journalists as part of the summer courses of Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

· Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June)

· UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Release of Meeting Minutes

· France Business Confidence (June), Business Climate Indicator (June)

· Switzerland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Norway Central Bank Interest Decision & Press Conference, Loan Growth (May), Unemployment (May)

· Hungary Gross Wage (April)

· Slovakia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (June 16)

· Kuwait Inflation (May)

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (April)

· Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Lebanon Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

European Union-Africa heads-of-state summit in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP (Q1)

Friday, June 23, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World" presentation before the Central Bank of Ireland and International Journal of Central Banking Research Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Raphael Bullard gives remarks at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business CFO Roundtable in Atlanta, Georgia.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Mester gives a speech at the Cleveland Fed Policy Summit 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.

· US S&P Global Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (June)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), Average Weekly Earnings (April), Wholesale Sales (May)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June), IGP-M Inflation (June), Federal Tax Revenues

· Chile PPI (May)

· Colombia Business Confidence (May)

· Argentina Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay GDP (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation (May), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· India FX Reserves (June 16)

· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Singapore CPI (May), Inflation (May)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Malaysia Inflation (May), Leading Index (April), Coincident Index (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday commemorating the fight against both Soviet-Russian troops and Baltic-German Landwehr Army in 1918.

· Today is the 7th Anniversary of the Brexit Referendum.

· Luxembourg celebrates National Day today,

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference on central banks, macro-financial stability, and the future of the financial system in Basel, Switzerland.

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (June), Retail Sales (May), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June), CBI Distributive Trades (June)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

· Spain GDP (Q1)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Poland Unemployment (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

· Switzerland Current Account (Q1)

· Hungary Unemployment (May)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommer-Dialog 2023 in Königswinter, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Sierra Leone holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guatemala holds central elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds parliamentary run-off elections. If no clear winners emerge, a 3rd run-off will be held in August.

· Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating the day when the country declared independence from Yugoslavia.

· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking the day in 1991 when the country declared its independence from Yugoslavia.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Mozambique Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/16/23 Francis Kelly 6/16/23

Charts of the Week

How Capping Methane Emissions in Turkmenistan Can Be A Game Changer in the Climate Change Fight

Methane and the ability to reduce is core to the climate change battle. Bloomberg recently published a report on how the US is talking to Turkmenistan about working together to cap their gas emission via leaks in their vast oil and gas fields. Coupled with pending EU rules regulating coal in the EU, this would result in 290 million tons of CO2 being taken out of the atmosphere a year. That would be the equivalent of canceling Taiwan’s total methane emissions – the 21st worst polluting country in the world. But that begs the question: Who are the worst climate offenders out there?

Francis Kelly 6/11/23 Francis Kelly 6/11/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 11 - 18, 2023

The Ukraine Spring offensive has officially begun, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced at the end of this past week. Amidst all this, Russian President Putin will be hosting the St. Petersburg Summit – often referred to as the Russian Davos – where business leaders and political leaders from various nations (but not Europe or the US as in years past) will attend. President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for a discussion on the situation in Ukraine, and later in the week, NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation and prepare for the NATO Summit in July.

In Beijing, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has offered to help mediate Israeli-Palestinian tensions. Here in Washington, D.C., all attention will be on former President Donald Trump’s arraignment in federal court after being indicted on 37 criminal counts of violation of the Espionage Act. Our view is this case will have something of a paralyzing effect on Congress for the rest of the summer and flip the tables on the 2024 election expectations – all of which we will see more clearly in the week and months ahead leading into the trial.

On the global economic agenda this week, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank meet to discuss interest rates. The ECB is expected to raise another quarter point, and the market is again split over what the Fed will do (our guess is they will raise another quarter point, too).

Regarding other major economic data reports this week, China will release key statistics on industrial production, property, and retail sales, giving markets a better sense of how the country is bouncing back – or not – from COVID lockdowns.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Global

· Nothing significant to report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Montenegro holds parliamentary elections.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers will hold informal meetings through June 13th in Brussels.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Tunis to announce an EU financial aid package to Tunisia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 12, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for meetings at the White House. They will review preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit, which is being held in Vilnius, Lithuania. They will also discuss the Allied support for Ukraine.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden begins a trip through June 15th to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. She will meet with the respective presidents of each country in a bid to improve trade relations with the EU.

· Chile launches its second-ever satellite into orbit on a SpaceX rocket.

· Bolivia and Paraguay observe Chaco Armistice Day, a public holiday commemorating the end of the Chaco War between the two nation’s in1935.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (May), Monthly Budget Statement (May)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Balance of Trade (April), Consumer Confidence (May)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

· Peru Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Caixin Global Forum begins in Singapore. More than 300 policymakers, business leaders, and thought leaders will attend the inaugural event hosted by the Beijing news service.

· The Philippines celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan PPI (May), Machine Tool Orders (May)

· India Manufacturing Production (April), Industrial Production (April), Inflation (May)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

· Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will host talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Paris. The talks will be held at a dinner that will focus on Ukraine’s push for NATO membership and security guarantees from its allies, all in advance of the NATO Summit being held in July.

· NATO will hold the largest deployment exercise in its history – “Air Defender 23” – through June 23rd. More than 10,000 troops and airmen from 25 nations with more than 250 aircraft will train focused on air operations in European airspace – mostly over Germany but also up to the Russian borders in the Baltics and around the Black Sea – under the command of the German Air Force.

· The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will be in Washington DC for peace talks hosted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, and Consumer Affairs Council meet through Tuesday.

· Kosovo celebrates Peace Day, marking the day a ceasefire in the Kosovo War was negotiated in 1999.

· Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia commemorating the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at a webinar hosted by Signum chair Charles Myers

· Ireland Construction PMI (May)

· Bulgaria Balance of Trade (April)

· Serbia Inflation (May)

· Ukraine GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Current Account (April), Participation Rate (April), Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 14th Ordinary Session of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa Assembly of Heads of State and Government meet in Djibouti.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Threats to international peace and security: Climate change, peace, and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will visit India, where he'll meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss bilateral defense ties.

· Former President Donald Trump is expected in a federal court in Miami to be arraigned on federal charges for his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Inflation (May), CPI (May), NFIB Business Optimism Index (May), Redbook (June 10)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

· Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia Development Bank hosts the Asia Clean Energy Forum in Manila. The four-day meeting, which is co-hosted by the US Agency for International Development and the Korea Energy Agency, will bring leaders together to discuss alternative energy policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Vehicle Sales (May)

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q2)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (June), NAB Business Confidence (May)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat at the 27th Annual European Financial Services Conference organized by Goldman Sachs in Paris

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee as part of an inquiry into central bank independence.

· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)

· Germany Inflation (May), CPI (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June), Current Account (April)

· UK Unemployment (May)

· Spain CPI (May), Inflation (May)

· Poland Current Account (April), Balance of Trade (April)

· Norway GDP (April)

· Romania Inflation (May), Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit China through June 16. President Xi has offered to help facilitate peace talks with Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Retail Sales (April)

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg hosts its New Economy Gateway Africa forum in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Namibia Inflation (May)

· South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

· Mozambique Inflation (May)

· Uganda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Global

· International Energy Agency Oil Market Report

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The values of human fraternity in promoting and sustaining peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Falklands Islands Liberation Day commemorating the liberation of the Island from the Argentine military in 1982.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US PPI (MBA Mortgage Index (June 9th)

· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (April)

· Brazil Retail Sales (April), Business Confidence (June)

· Argentina Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· India WPI Inflation (May), WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

· South Korea Imports/Export Prices (May), Unemployment (May)

· Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 17th. Hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and often referred to as “the Russian version of Davos,” the forum in 2022 (according to claims made on the website), brought together “14,000 people from 131 countries, including 1,700, 130 high-ranking foreign officials” and resulted in “5.7 trillion (ruble) in agreements.”

· Junior doctors in the UK go on strike for 72 hours seeking better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

· UK GDP (April), Manufacturing Production (April), Industrial Production (April), Goods Trade Balance (April), Construction Output (April), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

· Poland Industrial Production (April)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)

· Hungary Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Romania Industrial Production (April)

· Sweden CPI (May), CPIF (May), Inflation (May)

· Bulgaria (May)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account (Q1), M1 Money Supply (May)

· Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· UAE Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· East African finance ministers meet at the South Sudan Oil & Power Conference held in Juba.

· A French court continues the trial of former Rwandan police officer Philippe Hategekimana for his role in the Rwanda genocide in 1994. Hategekimana fled to France in 1994 and started his life under a false identity. He is charged with murdering dozens of Tutsis and coordinating roadblocks that trapped countless other Tutsis leading to their murder.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· South Africa Retail Sales (April)

· Ghana Inflation (May)

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold briefings on the 1591 Committee and on the 751 Committee (Somalia). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· G20 Agricultural Ministers meet in Hyderabad, India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Jobless Claims (June 10), Retail Sales (May), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (June), Philadelphia Fed Employment (June), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (June), Industrial Production (May), Manufacturing Production (May), Capacity Utilization (May), Export/Import Prices (May), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (April)

· Canada Housing Starts (May), Manufacturing Sales (April)

· Colombia Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay GDP (Q1)

· Peru GDP (April), Unemployment (May), GDP (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Over 4,000 members of South Korea's National Railroad Workers' Union will join demonstrations across the country against industry privatization.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China People’s Central Bank 1-Year MLF Announcement, House Price Index (May), Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment (May), FDI (May)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), Machinery Orders (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Australia Unemployment (May), Reserve Bank Bulletin

· Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (Q1)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

· Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Sri Lanka GDP (Q1), Manufacturing PMI (May), Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup (EU Finance Ministers) meets in Luxembourg. They are expected to discuss the digital euro project, among other things.

· NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine, preparations for the July 11-12 NATO Summit, and Sweden’s bid to join the alliance.

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the Swiss Parliament via video call.

· Brussels hosts the 7th Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region Conference. Attendees will be various EU ministers focused on rallying the international community to support a comprehensive and credible political solution in Syria as well as mobilizing humanitarian and financial aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

· France Inflation (May)

· Poland Inflation (May)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

· Serbia Building Permits (April)

· Spain Balance of Trade (April)

· Norway Balance of Trade (May)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (May)

· Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Russia GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

· Turkey Budget Balance (May), FX Reserves (June 9)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya’s Parliament is set to debate a new tax amendment which has garnered widespread national opposition and led to violent clashes with security personnel. Part of the dispute revolves around how members of parliament – among the best-paid in Africa – had agreed to a pay cut but in exchange for tax-free car grants, bigger pensions, and extra allowances.

· The African Union launches the temporary site for the Great Museum of Africa. The museum will be in Algiers, Algeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya 2024 budget presented to Parliament. Uganda and Tanzania also will be presenting their budget proposals to their respective parliaments today.

· Nigeria Food Inflation (May)

· South Africa Building Permits (April)

· Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (May)

Friday, June 16, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Mali and Head of MINUSMA, El Ghassim Wan, will be in New York to brief Council members, and he is expected to speak with reporters at the Security Council stakeout afterward.

· G7 Transport Ministers meeting in Shima, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Policy” at the Norges Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the IMF Economic Review joint conference on “The Future of Macroeconomic Policy,” Oslo, Norway

· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World" presentation before the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Norges Bank and IMF Economic Review "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy" C

· US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken may travel to Beijing (but more likely sometime next week) for meetings that may include a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Seen as a possible breakthrough moment that could finally establish a “floor” under the relationship between the two nations, which has been spiraling for years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· India Deposit Growth (June 2), FX Reserves (June 9), Bank Loan Growth (June 2)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May), Balance of Trade (May), Unemployment (Q1)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (May), Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets in Luxembourg. Among the agenda items of issues to be discussed include VAT in the digital age package, the retail investment directive, and further retail investment regulation.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin may receive a delegation of African and Middle Eastern leaders to discuss a possible peace plan with Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, & Risk Sarah Breeden speaks at the Westminster Business Forum in London. The topic of her speech is “Managing Risk and Building Stability in UK Pension Markets.”

· Eurozone Inflation (May), Labor Cost Index (Q1), Wage Growth (Q1), CPI (May)

· Italy Inflation (May), CPI (May), Balance of Trade (April)

· Poland Inflation (May)

· Bulgaria Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Auto Production (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)

Saturday, June 17, 2023

Global

· The Special Olympics World Summer Games commence in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Emperor Nauhito and Empress Masako will visit Indonesia through June 23rd.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Iceland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Global

· Father’s Day is celebrated in a number of countries around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay celebrates Artigas’ Day, celebrating the birth of Jośe Gervasio Artigas, who is known as the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in the Seychelles, marking the day the declaration of the referendum in 1993 making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/9/23 Francis Kelly 6/9/23

The Global Week Ahead

June 4 - 11, 2023

Now that the White House and Congress have averted a debt default, the markets are turning their attention to geopolitical events. Ukraine appears to be on the cusp of launching its much-anticipated spring offensive. OPEC meets this week, where they will likely agree to further production cuts to help sagging oil prices – although there appears to be friction among various members on whether to cut production and, if so, by how much.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with his Indian counterpart, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, in New Delhi, reflecting the growing security relationship between the US and India. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia for a series of high-level meetings, including participating in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial meeting – all part of an effort to rebuild US relations with Saudi Arabia.

On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Germany for a dinner meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The two leaders will discuss the upcoming NATO Summit in July and how the EU can further assist Ukraine. They are also likely to discuss EU policy toward China. On Wednesday, President Biden will host British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the first official visit of the Prime Minister to the White House. They are expected to discuss Ukraine, Northern Ireland’s political situation, and bilateral trade issues - but not a trade deal.

On the US political front, two more Republicans will jump into the 2024 presidential campaign: Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence will announce this week.

On the economic radar screen this week, China will release inflation data on Wednesday. This week, the Central Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on interest rates. The US Federal Reserve will be quiet this week as they are officially in their “quiet period” before meeting to determine interest rate policy on June 14th.

Finally, the OECD meets this week in Paris and will release its global economic outlook. The World Bank will also be releasing its summer Economic Outlook this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Global

· OPEC+ holds a ministers’ meeting in person in Vienna, Austria.

· The 79th Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2023 takes place in Istanbul, Turkey, through June 6th. This is the world’s largest gathering of airline leaders.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The State of Mexico holds elections for governor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 34th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square clampdown and massacre.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco trade unionists are expected to call for a national protest against the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, June 5, 2023

Global

· the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet through June 9. Top of their list of issues is the battle raging around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine. This is the largest nuclear power plant in all of Europe and has sustained significant damage on multiple occasions where power has been cut off from the facility. The Board will also discuss the Iran nuclear program. According to a confidential IAEA report this week, Iran has enriched their Uranium stockpiles by 20 percent since leaving the JCPOA (nuclear deal with the US, Germany, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA,

· The UN launches the Secretary-General’s Policy Brief Series - Global Digital Compact, Beyond Gross Domestic Product, and International Financial Architecture. More details can be found here.

· The World Trade Organization Secretariat holds a review of EU trade policies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will be meeting with Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Washington. Frederiksen is seen as a leading candidate to replace NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is planning to step down in October after nine years in the role.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May), ISM Services PMI (May), Factory Orders (April), ISM Services Business Activity (May), ISM Services New Orders (May)

· Brazil S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi. This will be the third leg of Austin’s Indo-Pacific visit, having traveled to Japan, Singapore (for the Shangri-La Conference), and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· India S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (May)

· Singapore Retail Sales (April)

· South Korea FX Reserves (May)

· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (May), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May), Company Gross Profits (Q1), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May), Business Inventories (Q1),

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Taiwan FX Reserves (May)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation (May), Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK has its June Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

· The Financial Times host an event titled “Investing in Space” starting Monday in London. Speakers include Bob Smith, CEO of Blue Origin, and Josef Aschbacher, director-general at the European Space Agency.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels. She will update them on the state of economic affairs in the EU and globally. EU members of Parliament are expected to focus on inflation and the ECB’s policy responses in fighting it.

· Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), PPI (April)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), New Car Registrations (May)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Sweden Services PMI (May)

· Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), New Car Registrations (May)

· Switzerland Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Slovakia Real Wages (Q1)

· Norway House Price Index (May)

· Serbia PPI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran celebrates Khordad National Uprising Day, commemorating events in 1963 when protests then-Shaw Mohammad Reza Pahlavi began. The Islamic Republic of Iran considers this the starting point of the Islamic Revolution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (May)

· Turkey Inflation (May), PPI (May), CPI (May)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa CEO Forum is held today and tomorrow in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Co-hosted by the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, more than 1,800 business leaders, investors, and policymakers are expected to attend.

· Equatorial Guinea celebrates President’s Day in honor of the current sitting president, Teodoro Obiang. Obiang has been president for more than 40 years and is the world’s longest-serving president (despite multiple coup attempts over the years).

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Global

· The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) for May is released.

· The UN will hold elections for new non-permanent members of the Security Council.

· The World Bank publishes the summer edition of the Global Economic Prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his UK and French counterparts in France during a D-Day commemoration. It is expected they collectively will discuss the situation in Ukraine, expanded mutual security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region, and climate change.

· Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to announce his bid for the presidency in New Hampshire.

· The Bloomberg Invest conference takes place Tuesday through Thursday. Notable speakers on the agenda include Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan, Nasdaq Inc. Chair and CEO Adena Friedman, and TIAA CEO Thasunda Brown Duckett, all speaking on Wednesday, and former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton, who speaks on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Redbook (June 3), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (June), LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)

· Canada Building Permits (April), Ivey PMI (May)

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (May)

· Colombia Inflation (May), Exports (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea observes Memorial Day, a public holiday honoring the brave soldiers who lost their lives in the Korean War.

· The Consumer Goods Forum begins in Kyoto, Japan. CEOs from more than 200 companies in 40 countries will attend. The main topics for discussion are supply chain security and climate change.

· China will officially launch its first domestically built cruise ship. The Adora Magic City will set sail from Shanghai. It can accommodate more than 5,000 passengers and is a joint venture of U.S. cruise ship operator Carnival and China State Shipbuilding Corporation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (April), Overtime (April)

· Philippines Inflation (May)

· Taiwan Inflation (May)

· Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (April), Current Account (Q1), Private House Approvals (April)

· Thailand Inflation (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 79th anniversary of the Normandy Invasion. French President Emmanuel Macron will make an official visit before flying to Germany (see next item).

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet in Potsdam, Germany, where they will discuss the NATO Summit being held in July as well as the agenda of the European Council.

· The International Court of Justice will begin hearing a case brought by Ukraine charging Russia with being responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014.

· France continues to experience massive strikes and protests over the recently passed pension reform legislation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (May), Retail Sales (April)

· Germany Factory Orders (April), HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May)

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)

· Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Romania PPI (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retails Sales (April)

· Slovakia GDP (Q1)

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Saudi Arabia through June 8th. He will also participate in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial meeting to discuss mutual security, regional integration, and economic opportunities in the region. On June 8th, Secretary Blinken will co-host a ministerial meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh.

· Kuwait holds National Assembly elections. All 50 seats are up for election, and is the second snap election held in the last year.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt FX Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa GDP (Q1)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (January/February/March)

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Global

· The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will meet in Paris. The theme of the meeting is “Securing a Resilient Future: Shared values and global partnerships.” Of note, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai will meet with EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis on the sidelines in an effort to finalize a deal aimed at promoting trade in steel and aluminum produced with lower carbon emissions. Both sides have put a self-imposed deadline of October to reach an agreement. It will also release its global economic outlook.

· The 8th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency begins in Paris. The meeting brings together ministers, CEOs, and other senior leaders.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes committed by ISIL/Da'esh (UNITAD).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will host UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the White House. The two leaders are expected to discuss Ukraine, post-Brexit bilateral tensions, Northern Ireland’s political issues, climate change, and bilateral trade issues.

· Former Vice President Mike Pence will formally announce his bid for the presidency. He will do it via a CNN Town Hall.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), MBA Mortgage Indexes (June 2), Core Credit Change (April), Used Car Prices (May)

· Central Bank Canada Interest Rate Decision, Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Labor Productivity (Q1)

· Brazil Inflation (May), Car Production (May), New Car Registrations (May)

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Costa Rica Inflation (May)

· Colombia Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan FX Reserves (May), Coincident Index (April), Leading Economic Index (April)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe gives a speech at the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit in Sydney, Australia.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the Australia Banking Association Annual Conference in Sydney, Australia.

· Australia GDP (Q1), Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (May)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Hong Kong FX Reserves (May)

· Singapore FX Reserves (May)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets in Brussels with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate of the upcoming COP28 Summit. He is also the UAE’s Special envoy for Energy and Climate Change.

· Malta celebrates Sette Guiugno Day, one of the country’s five national holidays. It commemorates an uprising on June 7, 1919, against the British government. British troops opened fire on the crowd, killing four and wounding 50.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a speech at a conference on financial integration jointly organized by the European Commission and the ECB in Brussels

· ECB Board Member will moderate of panel entitled 'Completing the Banking Union: progress, perspective and priorities' at a conference on financial integration jointly organized by the European Commission and the ECB in Brussels. ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo will participate in the panel.

· Germany Industrial Production (April)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (May), BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Current Account (April), FX Reserves (May)

· Italy Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Industrial Production (April)

· Hungary Industrial Production (April), Monetary Policy Minutes

· Poland FX Reserves (May)

· Ukraine FX Reserves (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment (May), FX Reserves (May)

· Norway Industrial & Manufacturing Production Figures (April)

· Russia FX Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May), FX Reserves (May)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa FX Reserves (May), Business Confidence (Q2)

Thursday, June 8, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Jobless Claims (June 3), Wholesale Inventories (April)

· Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry gives a speech at the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce.

· Chile Inflation (May)

· Mexico Inflation (May)

· Paraguay Inflation (May)

· Argentina Industrial Production (April)

· Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Lujiazui Forum begins in Shanghai, China. The event, named after the financial district in Shanghai, will see financial services executives globally in attendance and will be co-chaired by China’s new financial regulator, Li Yunze.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FX Reserves (May)

· Japan GDP (Q1), Current Account (April), Bank Lending (May), Ecco Watchers Survey Outlook (May)

· Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

· Philippines Industrial Production (April), FX Reserves

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through June 9th in Luxembourg. They will discuss EU policy on asylum and migration, the overall state of the Schengen area, and enhanced strategies to combat violent extremism and terrorism.

· The heads of government of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union will attend their bloc's Intergovernmental Council meeting in Sochi, Russia.

· In the UK, workers at the Coca-Cola Europacific Partners – the largest soft drink plan in Europe – go on strike for 14 days over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. Many financial markets in Europe (and the ECB) will be closed.

· Eurozone GDP (Q1), Employment Change (Q1)

· France Payrolls (Q1)

· Ireland Inflation (May)

· Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Romania GDP (Q1)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (April), Inflation (May)

· Bulgaria GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)

· Egypt Inflation (May)

· Israel Business Confidence (May), Budget Balance (May)

· Turkey FX Reserves (June 2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account (Q1), Manufacturing Production (April)

· Ghana Inflation (May)

· Tanzania Inflation (May)

Friday, June 9, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US WASDE Report

· Canada Unemployment (May), Capacity Utilization (Q1)

· Mexico Industrial Production (April)

· El Salvador Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation (May), PPI (May)

· South Korea Current Account (April)

· India FX Reserves (June 2), Industrial Production (April), Manufacturing Production (April)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Unemployment (April)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (April), Unemployment (April)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate in a high-level seminar on Capital Requirements Regulation/Capital Requirements Directive organized by the European Parliament Liaison Office in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate in a roundtable discussion organized by Algebris Investments in Milan.

· Italy Industrial Production (April)

· Ireland CPI (May)

· Norway Inflation (May), CPI (May), PPI (May)

· Sweden GDP (April), New Orders (April), Construction Output (April), Household Consumption (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Romania Balance of Trade (April)`

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April), Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April)

· Bulgaria Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Serbia Industrial Production (April), Unemployment (Q1)

· Hungary Budget Balance (May)

· Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, Inflation (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Industrial Policy (April)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, June 10, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China total Social Financing (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), New Yuan Loans (May), Vehicle Sales (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Portugal Day, a national holiday. It commemorates the death of Luís de Camões, who is recognized as the country’s greatest national icon. He is most known for his poem, which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century and has since been accepted as a national poem in Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Montenegro holds parliamentary elections.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers will meet through June 13th in Brussels.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

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Francis Kelly 6/2/23 Francis Kelly 6/2/23

Fulcrum Perspectives

July 2 - 9, 2023

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Monday, July 3, 2023

Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Friday, July 7, 2023

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Sunday, July 9, 2023

June 30 - July 2, 2023

Map of the Week

Chart of the Week

June 25 - July 2, 2023

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Monday, June 26, 2023

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Friday, June 30, 2023

Saturday, July 1, 2023

Sunday, July 2, 2023

June 23 - 25, 2023

Chart of the Week

Map of the Week

June 18 - 25, 2023

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Monday, June 19, 2023

Tuesday, June 20 , 2023

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Friday, June 23, 2023

Saturday, June 24, 2023

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June 16 - 18, 2023

Charts of the Week

How Capping Methane Emissions in Turkmenistan Can Be A Game Changer in the Climate Change Fight

June 11 - 18, 2023

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Monday, June 12, 2023

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Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Friday, June 16, 2023

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June 9 - 11, 2023

Map of the Week

June 4 - 11, 2023

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Monday, June 5, 2023

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Thursday, June 8, 2023

Friday, June 9, 2023

Saturday, June 10, 2023

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June 2 - 4, 2023

Chart of the Week

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