Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 5/29/23 Francis Kelly 5/29/23

The Global Week Ahead

May 28 - June 4, 2023

The coming week will be packed with several important market-moving events despite markets being closed in the US and most of Europe on Monday. First, the US Congress is expected to vote on a new debt ceiling increase package this week.

The House of Representatives will go first on Wednesday and the Senate on Friday, beating the likely debt ceiling breach on June 5th by only a few days. But our view is there remains some risk the deal gets blown up as numerous House Republicans are making it very clear they are not happy with the agreement. As they say, it is never over until it's over.

On the geopolitical stage, the foreign ministers of the BRICS nations gather in South Africa. The meeting is a precursor to the upcoming leaders' summit in August. While trade and economic development will be the primary issue discussed, there is no doubt the foreign ministers will be wrestling with the dilemma that if Russian President Vladimir Putin shows up for the August meeting because South Africa is required under international law to arrest him per a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. Also, this week, The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) begins in Singapore. Defense ministers from the Indo-Pacific will be there.

But we will be watching closely to see if US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has a sideline meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu – a meeting which will be seen as a significant thaw in relations between Washington and Beijing. However, Beijing has suggested there will not be a meeting since Li was sanctioned by the US in 2018 over relationships with Russia. One to watch, nonetheless.

Two sad historical events come into focus this week: The Libyian intelligence officer who helped plant the bomb that destroyed Pam Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988 will finally face charges in a US Court in Washington this week. And this coming Sunday is the 34th anniversary of the clampdown and subsequent massacre in Tienmen Square 34 years ago.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will watch US unemployment numbers released this Friday. The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book this week. In Europe, inflation data and labor market data will dominate the market’s attention, while ECB President Christine Lagarde gives several closely watched speeches. China releases PMI data as evidence mounts of slower growth there. And finally, a number of leading emerging markets will be releasing manufacturing PMIs and other important data this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Azerbaijan marks the founding of the Democratic Republic following its liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· India inaugurates its new parliament building in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain holds local and regional elections in 12 of the country’s 17 regions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey holds its Presidential run-off election.

· The Sultan of Oman arrives in Tehran, Iran, for talks on regional diplomatic and security issues through May 29th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Private Lending (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the National Day of Ethiopia, also known as the Downfall of the Derg, the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, May 29, 2023

Global

· The UN Climate and Clean Air Conference 2023 will take place in Thailand through June 2nd.

· The UN Second Session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution meets in Paris, France, to discuss how to develop internationally legally binding laws on plastic pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Memorial Day in the US. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Federal Tax Revenues, Net Payrolls (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will host the first South Korea-Pacific Islands Summit in Seoul, South Korea. The focus of the summit will be economic cooperation and planning for climate change.

· Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni will visit India in a state visit.

· The trial begins over the 2019 storming of the Hong Kong Legislative Council Complex.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Inflation (May), Balance of Trade (May), Retail Sales (May), Tourist Arrivals (May), Industrial Production (May)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

· Malaysia PPI (April)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

· Singapore Import & Export Prices (April), PPI (April)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Spring bank holiday in the UK. Financial markets are closed.

· In honor of Whit Sunday, financial markets in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, and several other countries are closed.

· Finland, Norway, and Sweden will host a NATO-affiliated multinational Arctic Challenge Exercise through June 9th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

· Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Nigeria, the former governor of Lagos state, Bola Tinubu, is to be inaugurated as Nigeria’s president after winning the country’s disputed presidential election in February with 36.6 percent of the vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Kenya Net Payrolls (April)

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the Annual Report to the General Assembly, as well as the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and South Sudan sanctions. Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· IAEA chief Rafael Grossi briefs is expected to brief the UN Security Council on a plan for Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Russia's military forces have knocked the nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – offline for the 7th time since the conflict began.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host the South American Leaders Summit in Brasilia, Brazil. There are a number of issues they intend to discuss, including deeper integration among the nations in areas such as infrastructure, health, and defense. They are also going to discuss the economic crisis in Argentina and Bolivia and how the nations can collectively work to prevent further economic damage to these countries and the broader region.

· Florida Governor and presidential candidate Ron DeSantis begin formally campaigning for president in Iowa as he travels the state.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will also speak.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor and Vice Chair-nominee Philip Jefferson gives a virtual speech at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the National Association for Business and Economics Monetary Policy and Outlook webinar.

· US S&P/Case Schiller Housing Index (March), CB Consumer Confidence (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

· Canada Current Account (Q1)

· Brazil PPI (April), Banking Lending (April), IGP-M Inflation (May)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

· Uruguay Unemployment (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan hosts Computex Taipei, a tech industry exhibition organized by the Taiwan External Trade Development Council and the Taipei Computer Association. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is expected to give the keynote speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment (April)

· Philippines PPI (April)

· Australia Building Permits (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-US Trade and Technology Council meets in Lulea, Sweden. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will all be in attendance. The Council meeting will allow both sides to discuss how to cope with China’s protectionist economic policies and practices. Additionally, they will discuss greater coordination on measures like screening outbound investments as well as restricting exports of semiconductors and other sensitive technologies to China.

· The EU General Affairs Council will be held in Brussels. They will discuss a number of issues, including ongoing tensions with Hungary over ‘values’ and the Rule of Law in Poland.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the impact of the War on Ukraine, packaging and packaging waste regulation, and marketing of frozen products.

· The Netherlands will hold elections for the upper house of its parliament.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with World Economic Forum Chairman Klaus Schwab in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The ECB releases their Financial Stability Review pre-release: Special feature on bank and non-bank interlinkages interactions of market and funding liquidity.

· Eurozone Economic Sentiment (May), Industrial Sentiment (May), Services Sentiment (May), Consumer Confidence (May), Loans to Households (April), Me Money Supply (April)

· Italy PPI (April), Industrial Sales (March)

· Spain Inflation (April), Retail Sales (April), Business Confidence (May)

· Bulgaria Business Confidence (May), PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Private Sector Credit (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the debt ceiling increase legislation.

· Libyan Abu Agila Mohammad Mas’ud Kheir Al-Marimi, who worked for Libya’s External Security Organization, is due to appear in a Washington court charged with the destruction of Pan Am flight 103 in 1988. An explosion in the aircraft that was flying over the Scottish town of Lockerbie resulted in the deaths of 270 people — including 190 Americans and 43 UK citizens — 11 of whom were on the ground.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Beige Book is released.

· Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum being held in Philadelphia.

· US MBA Mortgage Index Figures (May 26th), Redbook (May 27th), Chicago PMI (May), JOLTs Reports (April), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)

· Canada GDP (Q1)

· Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (April), Gross Debt to GDP (April), Unemployment (April)

· Colombia Cement Production (April), Unemployment (April)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will participate in joint naval exercises with the US, Australia, and South Korea off Jeju Island in South Korea. Interestingly, Japanese naval vessels will fly the “rising sun” flag over its vessels which has not been flown on Japanese naval vessels off the coast of South Korea since the end of World War II.

· Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will visit India through June 3rd.

· The Jeju Forum begins and runs through Friday in South Korea. The Forum focuses on challenges facing the greater Asia-Pacific region. Attendees and speakers include UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Specific issues to be addressed include a collective response to supply chain disruption and North Korea's growing nuclear armament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (May),

· Japan Retail Sales (April), Industrial Production (April), Consumer Confidence (May), Housing Starts (April), Construction Orders (April)

· India Government GDP (Q1), Infrastructure Output (April), Budget Value (March), M3 Money Supply (May 19th)

· South Korea Unemployment (April), Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Australia Construction Work Done (Q1), Housing Credit (April), Monthly CPI Indicator (April), Private Sector Credit (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

· Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Private Consumption (April), Current Account (April), Private Investment (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Sri Lanka Inflation (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia’s parliament elects the country’s next president. The role of the President is to represent the country internationally, while the Prime Minister has the main executive power.

· NATO begins a two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Oslo, Denmark.

· French President Emmanuel Macron to address the GLOBSEC 2023 forum in Bratislava, Slovakia.

· In the UK, the Aslef union, which works across 16 train operating companies, will stage a one-day walk-out. A further walkout is scheduled for Saturday, creating major disruption for Manchester City and Manchester United fans trying to reach London to watch the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann takes part in a panel discussion on central banks, inflation, and monetary policy, hosted by Swiss bank Pictet in Zurich, Switzerland.

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a Q&A session with high-school students at the final award ceremony of the Generation €uro Students' Award competition 2023 at the ECB headquarters.

· Germany Import Prices (April), Unemployment (May), Inflation (May)

· France Inflation (May), GDP Growth (Q1), PPI (April)

· Italy GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Spain current Account (March)

· Slovakia GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Hungary PPI (April)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (April), Retail Sales (April), Unemployment (Q1)

· Ukraine Current Account (April)

· Russia GDP (April) Unemployment (April), Retail Sales (April), Real Wage Growth (March), Industrial Production (April), Business Confidence (May), Corporate Profits (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria FX Reserves (May)

· South Africa Balance of Trade (April)

· Mozambique Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, June 1, 2023

Global

· Today is the first day of the meteorological summer.

· At the UN, the General Assembly will hold a plenary meeting in which the Election of the President of the General Assembly and the Vice-President of the General Assembly for its Seventy-eighth Session will take place.

· The Chair of the UN Security Council rotates from Switzerland to the UAE for the month of June.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden gives the commencement address at the Air Force Academy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will speak at the National Association for Business Economics Monetary Policy and Outlook webinar.

· US Challenger Job Cuts (May), ADP Employment Change (May), Unit Labor Costs (Q1), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (May 27th), S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Construction Spending (April), ISM Manufacturing Figures (May)

· Brazil GDP (Q1), S&P Manufacturing PMI (May), Balance of Trade (May)

· Canada S&P Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Mexico Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (April), Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Peru Inflation (May)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his counterpart Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, in Japan.

· Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi delivers a speech at Stanford University. He travels on to Washington for meetings with members of the US Congress and key think tanks. Gandhi was recently convicted and sentenced to two years in prison for defaming Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – which disqualified him from serving in the Indian Congress. He is currently appealing the conviction.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Japan Capital Spending (Q1), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (May), Building Capital Expenditures (Q1), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q1), Private Capital Expenditures (Q1), Retail Sales (April), Commodity Prices (May)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Hong Kong Retails Sales (April)

· Pakistan Inflation (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The second meeting of the European Political Community will take place in Bulboaca, Moldava. Heads of state from 47 European countries will gather heads of state and government from 47 European countries will attend. They are expected to discuss the impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine and mutual defense and economic security issues.

· As part of the European Political Community meeting, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev will hold peace talks in Brussels at a meeting chaired by European Council President Charles Michel. Also attending will be French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Helsinki, Finland, and gives a speech on Russia policy.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Luxembourg. The Council will discuss the “Fit for 55” package, namely the alternative fuel infrastructure regulation (AFIR) setting concrete targets for developing recharging and refueling points for cars, airplanes, and ships in the EU in the upcoming years, the RefuelEU aviation and FuelEU maritime regulations aiming to increase the uptake of sustainable fuels by aircraft and ships to reduce their environmental footprint.

· The Council of Baltic Sea States Foreign Ministers meeting takes place in Wismar, Germany, hosted by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB president Christine Lagarde speaks at the 27th German Savings Banks Conference 2023 ‘Because it’s about more than money’ in Hanover, Germany.

· ECB Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes released.

· Today is the 25th anniversary of the ECB replacing the European Monetary Institute.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a keynote speech at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector organized by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May), Unemployment (April), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· Germany Retail Sales (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France Budget Balance (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (April), Mortgage Lending (April), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May), Mortgage Approvals (April), Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May), Unemployment (April)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hungary GDP (Q1), Balance of Trade (March), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein will marry in Amman. He is marrying Rajwa Al Saif, a Saudi architect. She will be the future Queen of Jordan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply April)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (May 26)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mali's constitutional referendum campaign will begin.

· Today is Madaka Day in Kenya, also known as Self-Governance Day, celebrating the independence of Kenya from the UK in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation (May)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May), Balance of Trade (January/February/March)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May), New Vehicle Sales (May)

Friday, June 2, 2023

Global

· The 2023 BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting begins in Cape Town, South Africa. This is a prelude to the 14th Annual BRICS Head of State Summit to be held on August 22 in Durban, South Africa. One of the key questions that will be quietly discussed is South Africa’s legal obligations under both international and domestic law to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin (if he participates in person). On March 17th, the International Criminal Co

· Former MasterCard Chief Executive Ajay Banga formally becomes President of the World Bank.

· The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate is expected to vote on the debt ceiling increase package.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Unemployment (May), Total Vehicles Sales (May)

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May), Industrial Production (April)

· Mexico Unemployment (April)

· Uruguay Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) begins in Singapore. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese will deliver the keynote address. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will also address the conference, and all eyes will be on whether there is a sideline meeting between Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Beijing has indicated they are unlikely to allow the meeting since Li was placed under sanctions in 2018 by the US in relation to Chinese imports of Russian arms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)

· India FX Reserves (May 26th), Bank Loan Growth (May 19th)

· Australia Home Loans (April)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Space Agency holds a conference in Vienna, Austria, entitled “Ready for the Moon,” to discuss EU space exploration.

· In the UK, rail workers who are members of the RMT union begin a 24-hour strike in their ongoing dispute with the train operating companies over pay.

· Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating when Italians were called to vote on forming a government after World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Industrial Production (April)

· Spain Unemployment (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The SpaceX CRS-28 flight to the International Space Station launches from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center with a Falcon 9 rocket, delivering supplies and equipment to the orbiting station.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Global

· OPEC+ holds a ministers’ meeting in person in Vienna, Austria.

· The 79th Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2023 takes place in Istanbul, Turkey, through June 6th. This is the world’s largest gathering of airline leaders.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The State of Mexico holds elections for governor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 34th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square clampdown and massacre.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco trade unionists are expected to call a national protest against the cost-of-living crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

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Francis Kelly 5/27/23 Francis Kelly 5/27/23

The Global Week Ahead

May 21 - 28, 2023

This week, global markets will continue to be glued on the ongoing debt ceiling battle in Washington, D.C. Negotiations between House Republicans and the White House have become contentious (again). President Biden is curtailing his Asian travels to return to Washington to try and hammer out a deal. As of this writing, both sides are considerably far apart as the “X-Date” of June 1st rapidly approaches. We will send out separate updates to clients on what we are seeing with the debt ceiling negotiations, but our overall sense is that the talks will go right down to the wire. The big question is: Will they have enough time to pass whatever deal they hammer out and get enough support from the various Congressional factions before June 1st?

Also, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to announce his presidential candidacy this week. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) filed paperwork this past Friday and is expected to announce his intention to run for the presidency this week.

Elsewhere, APEC is holding high-level meetings in Detroit this week, and we will be watching carefully as U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai are expected to have sideline conversations with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. If this meeting takes place, markets should see it as a positive move which will likely lead to more high-level bilateral discussions between Washington and Beijing.

On the global economic and financial front, the European Central Bank celebrates its 25th anniversary this week. Regarding key data being reported this week, we look forward to reading the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday. Hopefully, it will give investors a sense if there is more upside in rate increases or if the Fed is finished (for now).

We will also look at global PMIs coming out this week and US PCE to understand whether inflation is under control and where the global economy is going in the months ahead.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 21, 2023

Global

· The UN’s Seventy-sixth World Health Assembly begins in Geneva, Switzerland, and goes through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile will hold Constitutional Council representative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a trilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Hiroshima, Japan.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Seoul to meet South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day state visit to Mongolia.

· East Timor holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds elections for 300 seats in the national parliament. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's New Democracy party leads in the polls, but the election may not produce an outright winner, leading to a second vote in July, which is expected.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia will put its first astronauts into space on the SpaceX Axiom Mission 2 rocket.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, May 22, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). Volker Perthes, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Sudan and Head of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan, will be in New York to brief Council members.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade ministers meeting will be held in Detroit, Michigan. On the sidelines, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai are expected to meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao – a significant event that is expected to help kick-start high-level talks between Washington and Beijing.

· U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly continues visits to Jamaica, Colombia, Chile, and Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will speak at a Richmond Fed event entitled “Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Uncertainty and Prospects for Disruptive Investments” in Richmond, Virginia.

· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates in a fireside chat at the American Gas Association Financial Forum in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a virtual fireside chat at the NABE – Banque de France International Economic Symposium being held in Paris, France.

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to co-chair a summit of Pacific Island leaders with his counterpart in Papua New Guinea, James Marape. President Biden was scheduled to attend but had to cancel to return to Washington to deal with the debt crisis. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend.

· Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra will visit China through Wednesday. The Netherlands is among China's largest trade partners in the European Union. While their trade cooperation significantly increased over the past years, their bilateral relations deteriorated after the Dutch government raised issues related to human rights in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Lona Prime Rate 5Y

· Japan Machinery Orders (March), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Taiwan Export Orders (April), Unemployment (April)

· Hong Kong Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels through May 25th. The EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the Russian War on Ukraine, the situation in the Balkans, Central Asia, and Tunisia, and then approve the Civilian SDP Compact.

· The EU-Republic of Korea Summit will be held in Brussels. It marks the 60th anniversary of EU-South Korean diplomatic relations. They are expected to discuss the Russian War on Ukraine, trade issues, including market access for agri-food products, labor issues, sustainable issues, and digital and data protection

· The EU Competitive Council meets through May 23rd. they are expected to discuss the issue of eco-design requirements for sustainable products, long-term competitiveness in communications, and the Critical Raw Materials Act.

· In the UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union who work as customer service advisors on personal taxation go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindo gives opening remarks at a workshop entitled "Policy proposals to reduce the climate insurance protection gap" jointly organized by ECB and EIOPA in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Philip Lane Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel, "The Great Volatility: How to cope? What is different this time? How to manage side effects and tradeoffs?" at the 50th OeNB Economics Conference and 60th SUERF Anniversary Conference "Monetary policy in uncertain times: Towards robustness and resilience" in Vienna, Austria.

· ECB Board Member William Elderson gives a guest lecture at the University of Utrecht in Utrecht, Germany.

· Eurozone Construction Output (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

· Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Lebanon Inflation (April – currently 263%)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (April), M2 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The annual meetings of the board of governors of the African Development Bank and the African Development Fund takes place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, through May 26th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict: Ensuring the security and dignity of civilians in conflict: Addressing food insecurity and protecting essential services. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu give keynote remarks at the Bank on National Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors Jason Furman participate on a panel at the Brookings Institution entitled “The Fed: Lessons learned from the past three years” in Washington, D.C.

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hosts a summit for South American leaders in Brasília.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Redbook, Richmond Red Manufacturing Index and Services Index (May), Building Permits (April)

· Canada PPI (April), Raw Material Prices (March)

· Peru GDP (Q1)

· Argentina Economic Activity (March)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

· Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin begins a two-day visit to Beijing. He is bringing a large business delegation in the hope of securing new trade agreements. He will conclude his visit by attending the Russia-China Business Forum in Shanghai.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Westpac Leading Index (April)

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore Current Account (Q1), CPI (April), Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The President of Republika Srpska (the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina), Milorad Dodik, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Dodik is on the US Treasury’s sanctions list for alleged corruption and for threatening Bosnian and regional stability. The purpose of the meeting is to seek greater cooperation from Russia.

· The EU European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.

· The London Defense Conference begins and runs through Thursday. Among the featured speakers will be Ukraine and U.K. government representatives, with debates on Indo-Pacific and European security and a speech by Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference, "What is the state of Eurozone financial integration in 2023?" organized by the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a conversation with
Robert Priester, Institute of International Finance, at the 2023 IIF European Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat at the 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference "What is the state of Eurozone financial integration in 2023?" organized by Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Eurozone Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Current Account (March)

· France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Germany Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· UK Public Sector Borrowing (April), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

· Italy Current Account (March)

· Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (May)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May), Unemployment (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg hosts the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, Qatar. Among those scheduled to speak are TikTok CEO Shou Chew, Blackstone Chair & CEO Stephen Schwartzman, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the Governments of Italy, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and the United States, in collaboration with the Governments of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, will convene a High-level Pledging Event to Support the Humanitarian Response in the Horn of Africa. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· The UN in Geneva will hold a press conference on Global Climate Update with predictions for 2023-2027. Prof Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Dr Leon Hermanson, Met Office climate scientist, will brief reporters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability holds a hearing on “A Failure of Supervision: Bank Failures and the San Francisco Federal Reserve.”

· Ecuador celebrates the Battle of Pichincha Day, a national holiday marking the battle on May 24, 1822, when 3,000 rebel troops fought against Spanish troops for the liberation of the Quito province.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Minutes

· US MBA Mortgage Index Figures (May 19th)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (April), Wholesale Sales (April)

· Mexico Inflation Figures (May)

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) Leaders’ Summit is to be held in Sydney, Australia. Composed of the leaders of India, Japan, Australia, and the US, they are expected to discuss how to build a stronger multilateral security apparatus in the Indo-Pacific. President Biden will not be attending as he is expected to return to the US to deal with the pending debt ceiling crisis.

· South Korea launches its third Nuri rocket, carrying an observation satellite into low Earth orbit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (May)

· Japan Tankan Index (May)

· Australia Reserve Bank Payments System Board Meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia Head of Domestic Markets David Jacobs speaks at the Australia Fixed Income Forum in Tokyo, Japan.

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit convenes in London and runs through Thursday. Among the speakers will be Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Elon Musk, and UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher.

· In the UK, union workers at the GSK pharmaceutical company go on strike at six sites across England and Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the celebration to mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governors Andrew Bailey speaks at the Net Zero Delivery Summit in London.

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions (May)

· UK Inflation (April), CPI (April), Retail Prices (April), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May), Car Production (April)

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Russia PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Business Confidence (May), Capacity Utilization (May)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Eritrea celebrates Independence Day, marking the day Eritrean People’s Liberation Front forces moved into the capital city of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war against the Ethiopian military regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation (April)

· Nigeria GDP (Q1)

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Peace and security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to file paperwork formally declaring his candidacy for the US presidency.

· Argentina celebrates May Revolution Day, marking the day when Argentinians first began to fight for independence from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April), Corporate Profits (Q1), GDP Price Index (Q1), GDP Growth Rate Index (Q1), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May 20th), Real Consumer Spending (Q1), Core CPE Prices (Q1), Pending Home Sales (April), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (May)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May), Average Weekly Earnings (March)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April), Current Account (Q1)

· Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 28th Future of Asia, hosted by Nikkei, begins in Tokyo. Speakers at the two-day event include Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Don Pramudwinai, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang, Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith

· China hosts the annual Zhongguancun Forum, which focuses on cutting-edge technology, including AI and quantum science. The event, being held in Beijing, will have participants from more than 80 countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPI (April)

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (March), Leading Index (March)

· Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenian President Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev will hold peace talks in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin will host.

· EU Trade Ministers meet as part of the Foreign Affairs Council meetings in Brussels. They will talk about trade relations with the U.S. (in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act), trade relations with China, and preparation for the 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization.

· In the UK, more than 1,400 security officers at Heathrow Airport resume strikes over pay, part of an eight-day action throughout May. Significant delays are expected at the airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindos gives a presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2022 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Jonathan Haskel (a member of the Monetary Policy Committee) gives a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June), GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

· France Business Confidence (May), Business Climate Indicator (May)

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (May), IPCA CPI (May)

· Spain PPI (April)

· Serbia Business Confidence (May), Tourist Arrivals (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1948 when they were granted sovereignty from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (March)

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (April), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Zimbabwe Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, May 26, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when the country was granted independence from Great Britain in 1966.

· Bermuda celebrates Bermuda Day, a national holiday, and all financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Personal Income (April), Core PCE Price Index (April), Durable Goods Orders (April), Retail Inventories (April), Wholesale Inventories (April), Michigan Consumer Expectations (May), Michigan Current Conditions (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)

· Canada Budget Balance (March)

· Brazil Current Account (April), Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Mexico GDP (Q1), Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Hong Kong celebrates Buddha’s Birthday, a holiday with all financial markets being closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan took Core CPI (May), Coincident Index (March), Leading Economic Index (March)

· India FX Reserves (May 19th)

· Singapore GDP (Q1)

· Australia Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore Industrial Production (April)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Malaysia Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was first briefly declared independent in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat on "European banking vigilance and the integration to be completed" at the 18th edition of the Trento Festival of Economics in Trento, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion "How quickly will inflation return to target?" at the 29th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

· France Consumer Confidence (May), Unemployment (April)

· Italy Business Confidence (May), Consumer Confidence (May)

· UK Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Unemployment (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi visits China for meetings regarding mining contracts and security cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP (Q1)

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mauritania holds the second round of voting for its parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Azerbaijan marks the founding of the Democratic Republic following its liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991.

· India inaugurates its new parliament building in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain holds local and regional elections in 12 of the country’s 17 regions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey holds its Presidential run-off election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Private Lending (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the National Day of Ethiopia, also known as the Downfall of the Derg, the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

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Francis Kelly 5/19/23 Francis Kelly 5/19/23

The Global Week Ahead

May 14 - 21, 2023

The standoff between Congressional Republicans and President Biden over the debt ceiling will continue to dominate the attention of both the US political world and the global markets attention this week. But there are plenty of other significant geopolitical and economic events happening this week that markets should pay close attention to this week.

The G-7 Leaders Conference takes place next weekend in Hiroshima, Japan. India and South Korea have been invited to attend, too. President Biden may not be able to participate in person if a deal on the debt ceiling is not reached by then. From Japan, President Biden is set to become the first US President to visit Papua New Guinea. The significance of this visit is that while there, Biden will sign a bilateral defense pact with Papua New Guinea – something China had been working hard to achieve with the island for strategic reasons but failed. Biden will then go to Australia next week for the AUKUS meetings (with the Prime Ministers of Australia, Great Britain, and Japan) to discuss further mutual security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific.

While all this is happening, China is dispatching a high-level special envoy to Ukraine, Russia, Poland, France, and Germany to try and advance their formula for reaching a diplomatic solution to Russia's war on Ukraine. Also, this week, the Black Sea Grain Initiative expires on May 18th. As of this writing Sunday evening, there are unconfirmed reports Russia has agreed to further extend the deal for another 60 days, allowing critically needed grains, cereals, and fertilizers to be exported from both Ukraine and Russia to markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Moscow has been demanding some sanctions be lifted by Western nations, or they would terminate the deal, making Ukrainian grain shipments military targets.

On the global economic radar screen this week, on the back of the G-7 Finance Minister and Central Banker meetings this weekend in Japan, we note there seems to be a lot of financial regulators and central bankers either testifying in front of the US Congress, EU Parliament, and UK Parliament or giving speeches someplace – much more than usual. The most notable of these we believe will be the semiannual testimony on the state of bank regulation by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Marty Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The three regulators will surely face tough questioning on the state of banking in the US in the wake of the failures at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature (we also would note the former CEOs of SVB and Signature Bank will be testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday). Additionally, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds its 2023 Financial Markets Conference where several Fed Governors, regional Fed Presidents, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler are set to speak. In Brussels, ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a Eurogroup meeting Tuesday while there is an ECOFIN (EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council) meeting Wednesday to discuss bank and financial market stability while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a major speech before the UK Chamber of Commerce and then later testifies before the UK Parliament.

In terms of major economic data this week, markets will be watching US retail, manufacturing, and housing data for further evidence of an economic slowdown. In China, markets will look at several important economic reports - retail sales, and industrial production numbers, among them -- to bolster hopes that the country is truly bouncing back post-COVID. Japan reports GDP for the first quarter, the UK reports GDP forecasts, and Canada offers inflation figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 14, 2023:

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is Mother’s Day in the US and Canada.

· Today is Paraguay Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Cambodia holds general elections. Early voting began on May 7th. There is a risk of political protests and instability. 500 members of its House of Representatives will be chosen. But the bigger question is whether the country will continue to be ruled by the military or return to full democracy. The country's pro-democracy movement, which is led by Thailand's largest political party, Pheu Thai, and the monarchy-skeptic, youth-focused Move Forward Party are facing off against Thailand’s military-royalist establishment, including the incumbent Palang Pracharat Party and upstart Ruam Thai Sang Chart party.

· India’s Punjab Province holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bremen state election is held in Germany.

· Albania holds local elections.

· Italy holds the first round of municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will hold presidential elections and parliamentary elections. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the toughest reelection bid of his 22-year years in office against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, May 15, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Joe Biden may meet with Congressional leaders in an effort to reach a deal on the debt ceiling. Staff of the respective leaders have been meeting, and there is some hope for a breakthrough in the coming week.

· The Independent Community Bankers of America hold their Capital Summit this week. On Monday, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra speaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives the commencement address at the U.C. Berkeley Spring 2023 Economics Commencement in Berkeley, California.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give welcoming remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2023 Financial Markets Conference. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will moderate a luncheon keynote at the conference.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat before the ACEC Minnesota Transportation Conference & Expo in St. Paul, Minnesota.

· US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May), Net Long-Term Tic Flows (March),

· Canada Wholesale Sales (March), Housing Starts (April), Financial System Survey

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia GDP (Q1), ISE Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan will announce new fuel prices.

· A visiting delegation from the International Monetary Fund will convene a press briefing in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on the country’s progress in turning the economy around after its debt default last year.

· The APEC Transportation & Trade Ministerial Meetings will be held through May 17th in Detroit, Michigan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Passenger Vehicles Sales (April), WPI Inflation/Food Index/Fuel/Manufacturing Reports

· Japan PPI (April), Machine Tool Orders (April)

· Australia Building Permits (March), Private House Approvals (March)

· Thailand GDP (Q1)

· Philippine Cash Remittances (March)

· Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese special representative for Eurasian affairs Li Hui will begin travels to Ukraine, Russia, Poland, France, and Germany to explore a diplomatic solution to ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

· Belarus’ foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik goes to Moscow for meetings through May 17th with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chairman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko and Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the Beyond Growth Conference in the European Parliament in Brussels. Later in the day, she Receives Mr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India; Mr. Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry of India; and Mr. Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Minister of State for Entrepreneurship, Skill Development, Electronics & Technology.

· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 16th in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· There will be a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels. ECB Board Chair Christine Lagarde and ECB Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria, and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

· Eurozone Industrial Production (March)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

· Hungary Construction Output (March)

· Serbia Building Permits (March)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Palestinians will recognize Nakbha Day, which is also known as the “Palestinian Catastrophe”, which may coincide with increased violence in Gaza and the West Bank.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Budget Balance (April)

· Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (April), Inflation (April)da

· Israel Inflation (April), Unemployment (April), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Former Guinean Prime Minister Ibrahima Kassory Fofana will be tried for alleged embezzlement of public funds. The trial was postponed since last year due to his ill health. He is accused of embezzling more than $4 million.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Inflation/Food Inflation Figures (April)

Tuesday, May 16, 2023:

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases the May 2023 oil market report.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on peace and security in Africa, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will visit South Korea and hold a summit with President Yoon Suk Yeol, where they will discuss supply chain issues, trade, and mutual security issues.

· The US Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing to examine the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Among the witnesses expected to testify are former Signature Bank Chairman Scott A. Shay, former Signature Bank President Eric R. Howell, and former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Gregory W. Becker.

· US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at the Independent Bankers of America Capital Summit in Washington, D.C.

· The State of Kentucky holds its Republican gubernatorial primary, selecting a candidate to face incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear this fall.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Marty Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu gives their Semiannual Hearing on Supervision and Regulation before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a panel discussion with Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbsee, moderated by New York Times Federal Reserve and Economics Reporters Jeanna Smialek, at the Atlanta Fed’s 2023 Financial Markets Conference. Later in the day, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorrie Logan will moderate Policy Session 4: Mitigating Risks and Preserving Financial Stability in an Appropriately Restrictive Policy Environment.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak in person before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series in Dublin, Ireland.

· Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the University of the Virgin Islands.

· US Retail Sales (April), Redbook (May 13th), Industrial Production (April), Capacity Utilization (April), Business Inventories (March), NAHB Housing Market Index (May), Retail Inventories (March)

· Canada Inflation (April), CPI (April), Manufacturing Sales (March)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (March), Imports (March)

· Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Peru GDP (March), Unemployment (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April), Unemployment (April), FDI (April)

· South Korea Export & Import Prices (April)

· Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Council of Europe Summit is held in Reykjavik, Iceland to discuss how Russia can pay for the damage they have done to Ukraine.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meeting with the Prime Minister of Iceland, Ms. Katrin Jakobsodottir in Reykjavik, Iceland. President von der Leyen later participates in the Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the Council of Europe in Reykjavik.

· French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will mee with trade union leaders to discuss pension reform as protests continue across the country over recent reforms enacted by parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· There will be an EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) Meeting in Brussels. EDB Board Vice Chair Luis de Guindos will participate. Topics for discussion include bank crisis management and a deposit insurance framework, the economic and financial impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine, overall economic recovery in Europe, and outcomes of the April G20 meeting.

· ECB Board Chair Christine Lagarde will Christine Lagarde give a laudation upon being conferred the State Prize of North Rhine-Westphalia to Angela Merkel in Cologne, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen will give a speech followed by a conversation with Single Resolution Board Chair, Dominique Laboureix, at the 18th IESE Banking Industry Meeting “Banking Navigating the Wave of Inflation” in Madrid, Spain.

· Eurozone GDP 2nd Q Estimate, Balance of Trade (March) Employment (Q1), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill takes part in an online Q&A hosted by the central bank on the steps it is taking to control inflation.

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May), ZEW Current Conditions (May)

· UK Unemployment (March)

· Italy Inflation (April), CPI (April)

· Hungary GDP (Q1)

· Bulgaria Inflation (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Martyrdom of Iman Saddeq Day, a national holiday in Iran honoring the 8th-century Shia Muslim scholar who was poisoned.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q1), M1 Money Supply (April)

· Qatar Inflation (April)

· Turkey Auto Production (April), Auto Sales (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko will be tried for rape and making death threats to a beauty salon employee in 2021.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment (Q1)

Wednesday, May 17, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Yemen), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy will hold a hearing on “Strengthening Accountability at the Federal Reserve: Lessons and Opportunities for Reform.” The Subcommittee, chaired by fierce Fed critic Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), will hear from Mr. Mark Bialek, Inspector General, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It is expected they will focus on the Fed’s role as a bank regulator and what happened with the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.

· The House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party will hold a hearing on “Leveling the Playing Field: How to Counter the Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Aggression.” Among those testifying will be Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Eric Schmidt , Chairman of the Special Competitive Studies Project, Roger Robinson , Chairman of the Prague Security Studies Institute and former chairman of Congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Economic Reports/Events –

· US MBA Mortgage Index (May 12th), Building Permits (April), Housing Starts (April)

· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (March)

· Brazil Retail Sales (March)

· Argentina Leading Indicators (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (April)

· India M3 Money Supply (May 5th)

· Japan GDP (Q1), Capacity Utilization (March), Industrial Production ((March)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (April), Westpac Leading Index (April), Wage Price Index (Q1)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss will travel to Taiwan to meet with lawmakers and senior members of the Taiwanese government – meetings that are expected to upset Beijing and further strain Chinese-UK relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Annual Conference in London.

· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in focus panel 18 "Beyond GDP indicators," at Beyond Growth Conference 2023 in Brussels.

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will give a presentation during an online debate on the digital euro at Kangaroo Group event in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Vice Chair Luis de Guindos will give a closing speech at the 18th IESE Banking Industry Meeting, “Banking Navigating the Wave of Inflation” in Madrid, Spain.

· Eurozone Inflation (April), CPI (April), New Car Registrations (April)

· France Unemployment (Q1)

· Hungary PPI (April)

· Serbia Current Account (March)

· Russia GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Guinea, opposition groups are planning anti-military junta protests over the next week after seven people were killed during protests last week.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 18, 2023:

Global

· Russia is threatening to let the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) expire unless certain demands are met, including the lifting of certain sanctions on Russia, including the removal of sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank. If the BGSI fails to continue, it could create a global food security crisis.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Politico will host its first-ever Energy Summit on Thursday in Washington, D.C. The event features conversations with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, White House National Climate Adviser Ali Zaidi and Jigar Shah, director of the DOE's Loan Programs Office.

· In Argentina, Left-wing groups and unions will protest in central Buenos Aires to demand greater social spending on subsidies for low-income households.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Marty Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu gives their Semiannual Hearing on Supervision and Regulation before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor and Vice Chair for Monetary Policy nominee Phillip Jefferson gives a speech at the National Association of Insurance Commissioners International Insurance Forum in Washington, DC.

· US Initial Jobless Claims (May 13th), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Philly Fed Business Conditions (May), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May), Philly Fed Employment (May), Philly Fed New Orders (May), Existing Home Sales (April), CB Leading Index (April)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

· Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Current Account (Q1)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold Beijing's first in-person summit with Central Asian leaders in Xi'an. Known as the C+C5, attendees will include the leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. Beijing’s goal for the meeting is to boost strategic cooperation on issues including the Belt & Road Initiative and how to deal with Russia’s War on Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Australia Unemployment (April)

· Philippine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Hong Kong Unemployment (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Northern Ireland holds local elections in 11 councils.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will attend the official celebration of the 175th anniversary of the first German national parliamentary assembly event in Paulskirche in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at a seminar organized by PwC in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies before the Treasury Select Committee of Parliament on the impact of rate tightening on the economy and how he sees the BoE can best deal with inflation.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill opens a BoE research workshop on macroeconomics and finance.

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Financial Stability Report, FX Reserves (May 12th)

· Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (March)

Friday, May 19, 2023:

Global

· G-7 leaders will gather in Hiroshima to discuss global economic, security, and climate issues through May 21st. In addition to the G-7 countries, South Korea and India have been invited to participate. President Biden may be forced to attend virtually if the debt ceiling crisis is not resolved beforehand. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to sign a new bilateral defense and technology agreement with Japan while visiting the country.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will join a discussion with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke on the topic of “Perspectives on Monetary Policy” at the Federal Reserve’s Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C. Also speaking at the conference later in the day will be Federal Reserve Bank of New York John Williams.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas.

· Canada Retail Sales (March)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)

· Mexico Retail Sales (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation (April), Tertiary Industry Index (March)

· India Deposit Growth (May 5th), FX Reserves (May 12th), Bank Loan Growth (May 5th)

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Taiwan Current Account (Q1)

· Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov will meet in Moscow, Russia, to discuss a peace treaty and the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The meeting will mark the first time that the two foreign ministers will meet after holding four-day talks near Washington last week, hosted by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In his public comments, Blinken said that progress in normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan was made, and peace between the countries was “within reach.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will give a pre-recorded video at Session 2 "Post-pandemic challenges: High inflation, high indebtedness and financial stability" of Banco Central do Brazil’s High-Level Seminar on Central Banking “Past and present challenges” in São Paulo, Brazil

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech and participate in a panel at the Conference on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy in honor of Charles Goodhart, followed by the opening of the Charles Goodhart Library, London, UK.

· Germany PPI (April)

· Italy Construction Output (March)

· Slovenia PPI (April)

· Bulgaria Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Arab League Summit will be held in Saudi Arabia. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been invited by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the first time Syria has been allowed to participate since being suspended 12 years ago due to al-Assad’s crackdown on his own people.

· Israeli ultranationalists will hold a controversial "flag march" through Jerusalem's Muslim Quarter in Jerusalem’s Old City. Hamas issued a statement warning that the Gaza-based group would not let Israel “Judaize” Jerusalem via the Flag March, suggesting violence could ensure.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, May 20, 2023:

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is East Timor Independence Day, marking the day in 1975 when the country gained a short-lived independence from Portugal (it was shortly afterward taken over by Indonesia and only regained its independence in 2002).

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, May 21, 2023:

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden visits Papua New Guinea – the first sitting US President to visit the island - to meet with Prime Minister James Marapae. While there, he will sign a defense and surveillance agreement with the country, a blow to China who had been trying to woo the island into closer diplomatic and commercial tie and even reportedly asking if they could build a naval base. While on the island, Biden will meet with other leaders at the Pacific Forum Leaders (through May 22nd). Biden will remain in Asia for the Quad Leaders Meeting in Australia on May 24th.

· East Timor holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds elections for 300 seats for the national parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/12/23 Francis Kelly 5/12/23

The Global Week Ahead

May 7-14, 2023

This week, markets will be watching Tuesday's meeting at the White House between President Biden and Congressional leaders for any breakthrough in the growing federal debt ceiling crisis. The U.S. Treasury reported that the expected "X-Date" – the actual default date – has been moved up to June 1st. However, according to Moody's, that date might slip a week to as far as June 8th.

This Thursday, G-7 finance ministers, central bankers, the heads of the World Bank and IMF, and the invited finance ministers of India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Singapore, gather in Japan to discuss financial system instability in the U.S. and Europe, debt problems in the developing world, and further support for Ukraine.

Elsewhere around the world this week, on Tuesday, Russia holds its annual Victory Parade marking the defeat of Nazi Germany. But it is also seen as a venue where Russian President Vladimir Putin could reveal a more significant national mobilization in the War on Ukraine. On Sunday, Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections. Polls show the election is very close but leaning against the re-election of President Recep Erdogan – a loss that could see sweeping political and economic changes comes to the country.

On the global economic front, it is a reasonably quiet week for major economic reports. Markets will be watching the Bank of England's monthly monetary policy committee meeting as the U.K. reports GDP figures. They are expected to raise rates another quarter-point. Also, this week, the U.S. reports CPI figures and the Michigan survey. China and India report inflation figures and the Philippines and Malaysia report GDP.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will meet with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Among the issues they are expected to discuss is “new areas of cooperation between New Delhi and the Gulf as well as the US and the rest of Sullivan will also meet with senior officials from the UAE and India later in the week.

· Chile holds its Constitutional Assembly election, choosing new members of the Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand begins early voting for general elections.

· Taliban interim Foreign Minister Muttaqi is in Pakistan for three-way talks with Foreign Minister Zardari and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on the crisis in Afghanistan.

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul, South Korea, through May 8. This is a significant show of strengthening relations between the two nations following a breakthrough agreement several months ago on reparations around forced labor in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Vice President Han Zheng visits Portugal and the Netherlands after attending King Charles II’s coronation in London.

· South Korean Prime Minister Han will meet his counterparts in Sweden, Austria, and Romania for discussions on bilateral cooperation, infrastructure, the defense industry, and security in the Korean Peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Arab League will host a meeting in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss further steps for Syria's potential reentry to the league, from which the country was suspended in 2011 because of its civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Benin will hold legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Monday, May 8, 2023

Global

· World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its May General Council Meetings today and tomorrow in Geneva, Switzerland.

· Today is Time of Remembrance and Reconciliation for Those Who Lost Their Lives during the Second World War, 8-9 May.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Syria (Chemical Weapons), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold consultations on the 1559 report (on the situation in Lebanon)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico's Supreme Court will release a ruling on the constitutionality of the first part of the government's "Plan B" electoral reform.

· The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 13th annual China Business Conference through May 10th in Washington, DC. A number of leading Biden Administration officials and members of Congress are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Wholesale Inventories (March), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

· Brazil Car Production (April), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Japanese government will officially downgrade COVID-19 to a common infectious disease.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (April)

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (April), Building Permits (March), Private House Approvals (March)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (April)

· Singapore FX Reserves (April)

· Philippines Unemployment (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov in Moscow. He will also attend the Russian Victory Parade on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech followed by Q&A at the New Paradigm Workshop - Resetting the Economy after the Crises organized by Forum New Economy in Berlin.

· Germany Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

· Israel Business Confidence (April), FX Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko will appear in court where he faces criminal charges for defaming a former government official.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa FX reserves (April)

· Tanzania inflation data (April)

· Mauritius inflation data (April)

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden hosts a meeting with the four leaders of Congress to discuss the looming debt ceiling “X-Date” – now estimated at June 1st. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Minority Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will discuss possible solutions to avoid a default on the national debt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a speech at the Economic Club of New York.

· US Redbook (May 6th), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (May)

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Inflation (April), Auto Production (April), Auto Exports (April)

· Argentina Industrial Production (March)

· El Salvador Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), FX Reserves (April)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

· Japan Household Spending (March)

· Australia’s Treasurer presents the annual federal budget, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May), Retail Sales (March)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Industrial Production (March)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia holds its Victory Day parade in Moscow, marking the day Nazi Germany was defeated. It is expected President Vladimir Putin will use the event to rally the country to further commit to the war on Ukraine in the wake of the alleged Ukraine drone attack on the Kremlin last week.

· In the UK, 1,400 security officers in the Unite union at Heathrow Airport begin a 48-hour strike in an ongoing dispute about pay. Separately, Unite members at GSK’s Ware factory begin a 49-hour walkout in a national pay dispute with the pharmaceutical company.

· Guernsey celebrates Liberation Day, commemorating when the island was freed from German occupation in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at IMF event 'Europe's Balancing Act: Taming inflation without a recession' in Berlin.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Hessischer Kreis e. V. at: Goethe University in Frankfurt.

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Current Account (March), FX Reserves (April)

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April), Halifax House Price Index (April), BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov hosts Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and Syrian Foreign Minister Mekdad in Moscow for “quadripartite” talks on normalizing ties between Turkey and Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (March)

· Israel Budget Balance (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Federal Responses to Recent Bank Failures."

· The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy, chaired by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), may hold a hearing on the Federal Reserve’s role in overseeing Silicon Valley Bank before its failure. Warren and Ranking Member Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) sent a letter to the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General asking him to testify on his findings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Inflation (April), CPI (April), Monthly Budget Statement (April), MBA Indexes (May 5th)s

· Canada Building Permits (March)

· Brazil Industrial Production (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Kahn is going to be indicted for his alleged involvement in the Toshakhana corruption case. Protests are expected in major cities as a result.

· India is bracing for protests over the Karnataka state assembly elections. Polls show a neck-and-neck competition between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition Indian National Congress.

· ASEAN holds its 42nd Summit in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia. The two-day summit will focus on regional growth as well as a stronger implementation of the five-point consensus on Myanmar (which has been largely seen as ineffective) and collective measures to reduce tensions around the South China Sea with China.

· Micronesia celebrates Constitution Day, which was ratified in 1979.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan FX Reserves (April), Coincident Index (March), Leading Economic Index (March)

· South Korea Current Account (March), Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s highest Military Authority, the Military Committee, will meet in person on 10 May 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the Military Committee, will preside over the meeting, which will be attended by the Allied Chiefs of Defense and their Invitee counterpart from Sweden. They will discuss Russia’s War on Ukraine and NATO’s continued support for Ukraine.

· EU member states' representatives will discuss a European Commission proposal for an 11th package of sanctions against Russia.

· In the UK, UK, the Public and Commercial Services union members working for HMRC in Glasgow and Newcastle over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms. This is the first of a series of walkouts that are set to continue into June.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation (April), CPI (April)

· Italy Industrial Production (March)

· Hungary Inflation (April)

· Ukraine Inflation (April)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

· Bulgaria Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Construction Output (March)

· Russia FX Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Unemployment (March), Industrial Production (March), Participation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema will be in Paris for meetings at the Paris Club on the country’s debt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana inflation data (April)

· Rwanda inflation data (April)

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet through Saturday in Niigata, Japan. The main agenda items include Russia’s War on Ukraine and spillover effects on the global economy, climate change, and the state of the financial sector.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

· OPEC releases its monthly report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Title 42, the US immigration policy allowing for the rapid expulsion to Mexico of illegal immigrants who cross the southern border, expires. US Homeland Security officials are expecting a new flood of migrants seeking to cross the border.

· Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may launch a presidential exploratory committee today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks on Financial Stability and Climate Change at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Banco de Espana, and IE University, Madrid, Spain

· US PPI (April), Initial Jobless Claims (May 6th)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (March)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Emperor and Empress host the official Spring Garden Party at the Palace.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation (April), PPI (April), Vehicle Sales (April)

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Current Account (March), Bank Lending (April), Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

· Philippines GDP (Q1)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· An informal meeting of EU Chiefs of Defense will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a talk at the scientific advisory board of the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF) in Frankfurt.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a panel at the 20th edition of cycle of dialogues organized by Diario Madrid Foundation and Cercle d'Economia in Barcelona.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona.

· UK RICS House Price Balance (April), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, Vehicle Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

· Turkey Inflation Report, Current Account (March), FX Reserves (May 5th)

· Egypt Inflation (April)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and African Continental Free Trade Area Secretary-General Wamkele Mene will speak at the Africa Debate investment conference in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South African mining output (march), Manufacturing Production (March)

· Namibia inflation data (April)

· Ghana Inflation (April)

Friday, May 12, 2023

Global

· G-7 science and technology ministers to begin three-day meetings in Sendai, Japan.

· G-7 education ministers to begin a four-day meeting in Toyama, Ishikawa, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will meet U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House. The meeting will focus on strengthening US-Spanish relations and the war in Ukraine.

· The 9th Annual Meeting of Heads of States of the Association of Caribbean States meets in Antigua, Guatemala.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor (and Vice Chair nominee) Governor Philip N. Jefferson participates on a panel on Monetary Policy Strategy at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford University, Stanford, California.

· US Import Prices (April), Export Prices (April), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (May), WASDE Report

· Brazil Inflation (April), Business Confidence (May)

· Mexico Industrial Production (March)

· Canada New Motor Sales (March)

· Argentina Inflation (April)

· Colombia Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (march)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (March), Unemployment (March), Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (April), New Yuan Loans (April), Outstanding Loan Growth (April), Total Social Financing (April), M2 Money Supply (April), Current Account (Q1)

· India Inflation (April), FX Reserves (May 5th), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March)

· Sri Lanka PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Stockholm to discuss the situation in Ukraine and EU-China relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Current Account (March)

· UK GDP (March), Goods Trade Balance (March), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March), Construction Orders/Output (March), Business Investment (Q1)

· France Inflation (April)

· Spain CPI (April), Inflation (April)

· Serbia Inflation (April)

· Hungary Industrial Production (March)

· Bulgaria Balance of Trade (March)

· Russia Inflation (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Retail Sales (March)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Saturday, May 13, 2023

Global

· G-7 health ministers to begin two-day meetings in Nagasaki, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a Commencement Address at the Daniel “Chappie” James Arena, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, Alabama.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Zelensky meets German Chancellor Scholz and President Steinmeier in Berlin.

· Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Billstrom and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell co-chair the EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Stockholm to strengthen the bloc’s partnership with the region.

· In the UK, members of the RMT rail union resume strike action across 14 train operators after rejecting the latest offer from the Rail Delivery Group.

· The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest, one of the world’s largest televised events, begins in Liverpool, England. The official host this year is Ukraine, but Liverpool is hosting on their behalf due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mauritania holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Sunday, May 14, 2023

Global

· NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is Mother’s Day in the US and Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Cambodia holds general elections. Early voting began on May 7th. There is a risk of political protests and instability.

· India’s Punjab Province holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bremen state election is held in Germany.

· Albania holds local elections.

· Italy holds the first round of municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey will hold presidential elections and parliamentary elections. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a tough reelection bid against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

· NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/5/23 Francis Kelly 5/5/23

My Informal SumZero Macro Talk

I was delighted to join with Manoj Ramnani, Chief Investment Officer of 93 East Capital, to discuss the ever-evolving landscape across global markets. We discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting, recent banking sector stress, geopolitical maneuvering in Europe, the Middle East, and APAC, and the upcoming U.S. election season.

Francis Kelly 5/2/23 Francis Kelly 5/2/23

CFA Society of Dallas-Fort Worth Lunch Presentation…

Fulcrum Perspectives

May 28 - June 4, 2023

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Monday, May 29, 2023

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Thursday, June 1, 2023

Friday, June 2, 2023

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Sunday, June 4, 2023

May 26 - 28, 2023

Charts of the Week

May 21 - 28, 2023

Sunday, May 21, 2023

Monday, May 22, 2023

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Friday, May 26, 2023

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Sunday, May 28, 2023

May 19 -21, 2023

Chart of the Week

May 14 - 21, 2023

Sunday, May 14, 2023:

Monday, May 15, 2023:

Tuesday, May 16, 2023:

Wednesday, May 17, 2023:

Thursday, May 18, 2023:

Friday, May 19, 2023:

Saturday, May 20, 2023:

Sunday, May 21, 2023:

May 12 - 14, 2023

Chart of the Week

Young adults in the US are less likely than those in most of Europe to live in their parents’ home

May 7-14, 2023

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Monday, May 8, 2023

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Friday, May 12, 2023

Saturday, May 13, 2023

Sunday, May 14, 2023

May 5 - 7, 2023

Chart of the Week

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