J.P. Morgan IMF/World Bank Conference

I was honored and delighted to serve on a panel at J.P. Morgan’s recent IMF/World Bank Conference in Washington, DC. A truly star-studded panel, we covered a vast amount of issues in little over an hour ranging from the brewing debt ceiling battle to the future dominance of the US dollar to a variety of geopolitical issues of direct impact to the markets. Thank you, Joyce Chang, for inviting me!

Three Generations…

I have been a proud father for 31 years. And now I am a proud grandfather. Meet Brendan Francis Kelly, here with my son, Joseph. Brendan was born on April 26th. A third generation of Kelly men. I never would have dreamed of this day when I was young. I am a blessed man.

The Global Week Ahead

April 30 - May 7, 2023

This week, much of the world celebrates Labor Day on Monday – meaning many financial markets will be closed. But on Monday, President Joe Biden will host meetings with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to solidify further mutual defense agreements between the two nations in the face of growing tensions in the South China Sea with China.

In the Middle East, Israel’s Parliament is expected to again take up work this week on the highly controversial judicial reforms that have led to widespread demonstrations in the country.   In London on Saturday, King Charles III and the Queen Consort Camilla will be officially crowned King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth Realms.

The real action this week will be among central banks. The US Federal Reserve meets and will announce whether to raise rates again or hold on Wednesday. The European Central Bank will also reveal a similar decision on Thursday. But several other central banks worldwide – Australia, Turkey, Malaysia, and Brazil, to name a few – will also be announcing interest rate decisions.

Those announcements will come amongst a slew of inflation data and PMIs in the US, Europe, and Asia – a lot of data for markets to take in this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds a vote on several constitutional amendments, including extending the presidential term from five to seven years, adding that Uzbekistan officially known as a “legal, social and secular state” (adding the word “secular”), adding a living minimum wage, guaranteeing the rights of the disabled, and a number of other amendments.

·       Vietnam will mark its 48th National Reunification Day.

·       French Polynesia holds the 2nd round of Assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) begins a 48-hour walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s Knesset (Parliament) is expected to resume working on the controversial judicial reform legislation that has sparked widespread national protests. 

·       US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) travels to Israel. He will be leading a bipartisan delegation of 20 members of the House.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will also be visiting. McCarthy is expected to meet with Amir Ohana, the Speaker of the Knesset, and McCarthy will also address the Knesset. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Lending (March), M3 Money Supply (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mali will hold a constitutional referendum aimed at restoring democracy after a military takeover.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, May 1, 2023

 Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene an international meeting on Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar (1-2 May).  

·        Switzerland takes the chair of the UN Security Council from Russia for the month of May. The UN Security Council President for May, Ambassador H.E. Mrs. Pascale Christine Baeriswyl of Switzerland, who will brief reporters on the program of work for the month.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. will meet with President Biden at the White House. The goal of the meeting is to further cement the mutual commitment to the defense of the Philippines, particularly in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), ISM Manufacturing PMI (April), Construction Spending (April)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Marshall Islands Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       India S&YP Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (April), Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (April), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April), Commodity Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Labor Day is celebrated in most of Europe and is a public holiday.

·       French labor unions will hold nationwide demonstrations and strikes to protest the government's pensions reform during International Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, May 2, 2023 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (April 29th), JOLTS Report (March), Factory Orders (March),  Total Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (March), Business Confidence (April), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Argentina Tax receipts (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank holds its 56th annual Board of Governors meeting in Incheon, South Korea. They will meet through Friday and are expected to discuss a wide range of issues, from food security and climate change to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation (April), CPI (April), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), Inflation (April), Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will meet Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti in Brussels, Belgium. They are seeking to find a diplomatic solution to ongoing tensions between the two states over elections.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden will deliver a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for a new plant of Infineon Technologies AG in Dresden, Germany. Later, she will meet with the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, in Prague.

·       Finland's center-right National Coalition Party, the far-right Finns Party and two junior partners will begin formal negotiations to form a new government following elections on April 2nd.

·       In the UK, strikes are expected by the National Education Union, members of the Unite union who work at the GSK pharmaceutical company, by the workers at the Passport Office, and also ambulance drivers across the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a discussion on "Banking supervision in a new economy": with Enria with Luc Laeven, ECB Director General Research, at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       Eurozone Inflation (April), CPI (April),  HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April), M3 Money Supply (April), Loans to Households (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (March) HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (April), S&P/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), Inflation (April), CPI (April), PPI (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga will resume protests against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria PMI (April)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (April), Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Angola Gross Reserves (April)

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

·       US MBA Mortgage Data (April 28), ADP Employment Change (April), S&P Global Manufacturing & Composite & Services PMIs (April), ISM Services Data (April)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Constitution Memorial Day, a national holiday marking the new constitution brought into force after World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea FX Reserves (April)

·       India S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (April)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (April) Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (April),, Retail Sales (April) RBA Chart Pack

·       Malaysia Central Bank Decision on Interest Rates

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Employment and Social Affairs Ministers in Stockholm through May 4th.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is hosting the 14th Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, together with the presidency of this year’s COP28 climate conference in the United Arab Emirates.

·       German Finance Minister Christian Lindner will be speaking with Moritz Schularick, president-designate of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The topic will be “New business models for Germany” and will cover the future of globalization regarding commodity, sales, and financial markets; the division of tasks between the state and the private sector; and the role of political consulting. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in policy panel "Banking Supervision and the Role of Banks in a Future Banking System – Opportunities and Challenges Ahead" at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference 

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the closing speech at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference 

·       Eurozone Unemployment (March)

·       France Budget Balance (March)

·       Italy Unemployment (March)

·       Russia GDP (March), Unemployment (March), Business Confidence (April), Retail Sales (April), Real Wage Growth (February), Corporate Profits (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Auto Sales (April), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Inflation (April), PPI (April) CPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria will launch its first national census in 17 years. The current population now exceeds 200 million people and is on track to become the 3rd largest population in the world by 2050, according to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP (Q4)

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Global

·       The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (March), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1), Unit Labor Costs (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (April 29th)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Ivey PMI (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April), Unemployment (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) will meet in Brussels to discuss the reform of multilateral development banks as well as the global consequences of Russia’s war on Ukraine as well as the situation in Sudan.

·       The EU Health Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Stockholm to discuss crisis preparedness.

·       Local elections are to be held in more than 230 councils in the UK. The results will offer some insights into the strength of the Conservative Party.

·       Also in the UK, security officers at Heathrow Airport are expected to start a three-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Eurozone HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (April), PPI (March)

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Spain Unemployment (April)

·       UK New Car Sales (April), S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (April), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (March), BoE Consumer Credit (March),

·       Italy S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PMIs (April)

·       Kenya PMIs (April)

·       Zambia PMIs (April)

·       Ghana PMIs (April)

·       Mozambique PMIs (April)

·       Uganda PMIs (April)

Friday, May 5, 2023

Global

·       The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives the commencement address at Michigan State University in East Lansing, Michigan.

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (April), Unemployment Figures (April), Consumer Credit Change (March), Used Car Sales (April)

·       Canada Unemployment (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet in Goa, India. Among those attending will be Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari – the first such high-level visit from a senior official from Islamabad in almost ten years.

·       Cambodia will host the Southeast Asian Games through May 17th in Phnom Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       India FX Reserves (April 28th), Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth

·       Indonesia GDP (Q1)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy, Home Loans (March), Investment Lending for Homes (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events – Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at The State of the Union event organized by the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy. 

·       Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (April), Retail Sales (March)

·       Germany Factory Orders (March), HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       France Industrial Production (March), Non-farm Payrolls (Q1), HCOB Construction PMI (April), FX Reserves (April)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April), Retail Sales (March)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March), Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (April 28th)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the US, Berkshire Hathaway holds its annual shareholder’s meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, led by chair Warren Buffett.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla are formally crowned King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth Realms in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mauritius FX Reserves (April) 

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds its Constitutional Assembly election, choosing new members of the Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand is expected to hold general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

April 28 - 30, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports we read in the last week.  Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. We apologize for sending this out late – we’ve been too busy marveling at our first grandchild!  We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

·       “Frozen Frontiers: China’s Great Power Ambitions in the Polar Regions” Center for Strategic and International Studies

In this interactive report, CSIS scholars chronicle how China’s pursuit of great power status is drawing it to the frozen reaches of the world’s polar regions. In both the Arctic and Antarctic, China has undertaken ambitious expeditions and developed world-class research facilities. These investments have elevated China’s voice in polar affairs and afforded it an opportunity to shape the emerging geopolitical landscape.  Its growing physical footprint in the world’s most remote frontiers also serves to advance China’s broader strategic and military interests. 

·       “The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint” Foreign Policy Research Institute

Much has been reported on the Russian military’s use of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary army run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, in the War on Ukraine.  But beyond Ukraine, where and what does the Wagner Group do?  In this report, we see that Wagner is the Russian state’s backroom dealer in Africa. Prigozhin aggressively is found to cuts deals with African junta leaders promising counterterror assistance for access to resources.  And that has a direct impact on the global commodity markets, especially as the US and other nations seek to acquire rare earth minerals.

·       “On frontier of new ‘gold rush,’ quest for coveted EV metals yields misery” Washington Post

One of the poorest countries on Earth has become a crucial player in the world’s green-energy transition. Guinea, a West African nation of more than 13 million people, is home to the world’s biggest reserves of bauxite — a reddish-brown rock that is the main source of aluminum. That lightweight metal, in turn, is essential for electric vehicles because it allows them to travel farther without recharging than if they were made of steel.  And over the current decade, when experts expect global sales of EVs to increase almost ninefold, demand for aluminum will jump nearly 40 percent to 119 million tons annually, industry analysts say. But the people of Guinea are paying a steep price as the natural habitat is being destroyed, farmland is made useless, and the locals are getting little to no compensation.

·       “Venezuela: Remittances as a Source of Foreign Exchange and Economic Survival” The Inter-American Dialogue

The Migration, Remittances, and Development Program’s Remittance Industry Observatory (RIO) features new data on remittances in Venezuela. The data release underscores the increasing importance of remittances to the country in the context of increased emigration and political instability. Remittances reached US$4.2 billion in 2022 and are now received by an estimated 29 percent of Venezuelan households. Despite the volume, remittances are almost entirely transmitted through unlicensed providers, and a disproportionate amount originates from the US.

Chart of the Week 

Russia’s Backdoor Supply of Oil to Europe 

Bloomberg reported this week on how India has become a top supplier of fuel to Europe.  But India does not drill for oil so where it is coming from?  Russia.  India has been snapping up cheap Russian crude – for as much as a 40 percent discount – and is now shipping it to Europe for a marketup.  

The Global Week Ahead

April 23 - 30, 2023

It will be a momentous week in the US this week as President Joe Biden is expected to announce his intention to run for re-election via a video on Tuesday and later in the week as the House of Representatives will hold a vote on a Republican debt ceiling package.  While the debt ceiling package is likely to pass in the House by the slimmest of margins, it will almost certainly fail in the Senate – but many observers see the vote as at least jump-starting the debt ceiling negotiations.

Looking globally, we will closely watch a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday.  While Russia’s war on Ukraine will be the primary issue of discussion, the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) will be a significant focus.  On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would withdraw from the program if the G-7 continues moving toward an outright ban on exports to Russia.  See this European Commission briefing to understand how vital the BSGI is to global commodity prices and feeding large areas of Africa and the Middle East.

Looking at global economics this week, we will be watching the US Q1 GDP report coming out Thursday.  In the EU, Q1 GDP figures for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy, and Spain will be released Friday. Also, on Friday, ae the Bank of Japan will decide interest rates under new BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 23, 2023:

Global

·       Japan hosts the G-7 Labor and Agriculture ministers. They are expected to discuss labor market policies in a post-COVID era as well as digital transformation/green transformation and the investment in human capital.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo is scheduled to hold municipal elections in northern municipalities that are predominately Serbian. Serbia opposes the elections, and the Belgrade-backed Kosovo Serb Party (Srpska Lista) has called for a boycott. The elections were originally scheduled for December 18, 2022, but were delayed after a series of violent incidents and pressure from the international community, including the EU.

·       In the UK, all UK phones are scheduled to receive a test emergency alert at 3 p.m. The system is planned to be used to issue warnings about life-threatening events such as floods and wildfires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Monday, April 24, 2023:

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres meets in New York with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Among the issues they are expected to discuss is the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), along with Russia’s war on Ukraine. On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened that if the G-7 moves to a near-total ban on exports to Russia, Russia will terminate the BSGI, a move that could trigger a global food security event. Additionally, Russia is chairing the UN Security Council this month, and Lavrov will personally chair the meeting held today (see next item).

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Effective multilateralism through the defense of the principles of the UN Charter. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

·       TIME Magazine will host the TIME CO2 Earth Awards Gala in New York. . The inaugural TIME CO2 Earth Award recipients are António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations; Mark Ruffalo, actor, director, producer, Co-Founder, The Solutions Project and Gloria Walton, President & CEO, The Solutions Project; Lisa P. Jackson, Vice President of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Apple; and Vanessa Nakate, climate activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s Supreme Court is excepted to hear testimony from former President Jair Bolsonaro over the failed January coup attempt after the election of current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula).  

·       The US Congress is in session this week.

·       The British Virgin Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Canada New Housing (March)

·       Brazil Current Account (March), FDI (March), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Inflation (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore CPI (March), Inflation (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belgium will host the North Sea Summit in Ostend. Leaders from Belgium, Denmark, German, and the Netherlands will meet. Also invited are the leaders of France, the UK, Ireland, and Norway and EU President Ursula von der Leyen. They will talk about energy challenges in the North Sea and ways to improve the transmission of electricity.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet in Ostend, Belgium, with Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss the implementation of the EU action plan on the geopolitical consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It can be watched live HERE.

·       In London, the UK Court of Appeal will hold hearings through April 27 on legal challenges to the UK Government’s Rwanda asylum plan.

·       Armenia observes Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion at an event entitled “Integration, multilateralism, and sovereignty: building a Europe fit for new global dynamics - How should Europe position itself in a world that is increasingly fragmented and polarized?” organized by Bruegel in Brussels. 

·       ECB Board Member/Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB Andrea Enria Andrea Enria participates in an MNI Connect roundtable event via webcast. 

·       Later in the afternoon, ECB Board Member Panetta will give an introductory statement at the Hearing on the Digital Euro at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April), Ifo Current Conditions (April), Ifo Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April) Capacity Utilization (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, April 25, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will again chair the Council meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden is expected to announce his re-election campaign today with the release of a video.

·       The Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration and Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) are going to speak at the Bipartisan Policy Center on the future of Social Security at an event entitled “Can We Fix Social Security?” The Congressional Budget Office recently reported the program will go bankrupt by 2032 and Medicare by 2033, requiring more than $4 trillion of new funding to keep them solvent.

· India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will pay an official visit to Colombia.  This is part of a series of multinational meetings Jaishankar is holding in the region. He visited Guyana between April 21-23, Panama from April 24 through April 25, Colombia through the 27th, and will finish with meetings in the Dominican Republic from April 27 through April 29.   Subrahmanyam is accompanied by a large delegation of Indian business leaders as India seeks to expand trade relations with these nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (April 22), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (February), New Home Sales (March), Building Permits (March),  CB Consumer Confidence (April), Richmond Fed Services Index/Manufacturing Index/Manufacturing Shipping Index (April), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April),

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April), Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will visit Japan through April 28. The two nations are working on a mutual defense strategy as the two nations are preparing to upgrade their relationship to a “strategic partnership.” Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio highlighted the relationship as part of his administration’s “New Plan

·       North Korea celebrates the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Army.

• Australia and New Zealand commemorate Anzac Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP (Q1)

·       Singapore Inflation (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg. They will discuss farming and forestry aspects of the carbon removals regulation, opportunities provided by the bioeconomy, the state of play of national strategic plans under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine. Other items on the agenda include information from the Commission about biological control agents. The briefing document for the meeting can be found HERE.

• Italy celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Nazi forces retreated from Italy. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent will give a speech in London at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on “Monetary Policy: Prices versus Quantities.”

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (March), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q2)

·       Spain PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Independence Day (Yom HaAtzmaut), which marks the day David ben Gurion read the Proclamation of the Establishment of the State of Israel on May 14, 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Wednesday, April 26, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will meet with President Joe Biden. He will also address a joint session of Congress to commemorate the 70th anniversary of US-South Korean relations. It is expected President Biden will encourage the South Korean President to agree to export weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

·       The University of California-Berkeley School of Law will hold the Berkeley Spring Forum on M&A and the Boardroom.  Of note, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn will speak on antitrust policy.

·       Reuters will host a forum on “The Future of US Offshore Wind Expansion: What Comes Next?” The  Department of Energy’s Head of US Offshore Wind Programs will speak and may give an indication of reported new offshore wind projects in Oregon, Main, and the Great Lakes. However, the US Defense Department is pushing to declare all possible development areas from Delaware to North Carolina as off-limits for additional wind projects as they will impede military operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Index (April), Durable Goods Orders (March), Wholesale Inventories (March), Retail Inventories (March), Goods Trade Balance (March)

·       Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations, Manufacturing Sales (March)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (March), IPCA CPI (April), Net Payrolls (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Argentina Inflation (Q1), CPIs (Q1)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government will host a Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Rome.  Representatives of the Ukrainian government, the EU, and numerous international financial institutions will participate.

·       NATO commences “Noble Jump II” exercises in Sardinia, Italy, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member/Chair of the Supervisory Board Andrea Enria gives introductory remarks at the Supervisory reporting conference at the ECB, Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Keerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel session entitled “Sustainability risk in the banking sector” at the Eurofi High-Level Seminar 2023 in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos  Luis de Guindo participates in a panel discussion at Delphi Economic Forum VIII in Delphi, Greece.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives concluding remarks at the Supervisory reporting conference at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum is held in Delphi, Greece, through April 29.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April), Unemployment Figures (March)

·       UK Labor Productivity (Q4), CBI Distributive Trade (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Thursday, April 27, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis travels to Israel to give a keynote address at the “Celebrate the Faces of Israel” event in Jerusalem.   This is part of a global international trade mission DeSantis is conducting this week and next week. The mission is also seen as an important elevation of his foreign policy views as he prepares for a likely US presidential campaign. DeSantis is scheduled to travel to Japan, where he will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimisa Hayashi, and a number of Japanese business executives..  He will then travel to South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and South Korean business executives. After his trip to Israel, DeSantis will go to the UK for meetings with Foreign Minister James Cleverly and a number of leading UK business executives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US GDP (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (April 22), Real Consumer Spending (Q1), Core CPE Prices (Q1), Pending Home Sales (March), Kansas Fed. Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (April)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April), Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 6th Digital China Summit will be held in Fuzhou today and Friday. Co-hosted by the Chinese Cyberspace Administration and several other government agencies, it will focus on data security, the digital economy, and the digital yuan. It is expected to also focus on the development of 6G and quantum communications to overcome US tech sanctions, per a call from the government to focus on these issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (March)

·       Japan Leading Economic Index (February), Coincident Index (February)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Import & Export Prices (Q1)

·       Indonesia FDI (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) will shut down the COVID-19 app.

·       Also in the UK, teachers in the National Education Union in England and Wales are set to stage another walkout in their dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a presentation on the digital euro at the European Association of Co-operative Banks (EACB) board meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (April), Industrial Sentiment (April), Selling Price Expectations (April), Services Sentiment (April), Consumer Confidence (April), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Spain Unemployment (Q1), Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy Consumer Confidence (April), Business Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct a fuel loading ceremony at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend virtually.  The plant was built by Russia’s Rosatom.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing Rate (April), Overnight Lending Rate (April), FX Reserves (April 21), Economic Confidence Index (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Sierra Leone celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it declared independence from the UK in 1961.

·       Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when Togo declared independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Friday, April 28, 2023:

Global

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core PCE Price Index (March), Personal Income (March), Employment Cost Index (Q1), Chicago PMI (April), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April), Michigan Consumer Expectations (April), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (April), Michigan Current Conditions (April), Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Canada GDP (February), Budget Balance (February)

·       Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (March), Gross Debt to GDP (March), Unemployment (March), IBC-BR Economic Activity (February), PPI (March), Federal Tax Revenues (March)

·       Mexico GDP (Q1) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision (this will be the first monetary policy meeting under the new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda), Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report, Unemployment (March), Tokyo CPIs (April), Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Housing Starts (March), Construction Orders (March)

·       India Government Budget Value (March), FX Reserves (April 21), Infrastructure Rate (March)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q1), Bank Lending (March), Unemployment Rate (Q1), Import Prices (March), Business Confidence (Q1), Export Prices (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Australia Housing Credit (March), PPI (Q1), Private Sector Credit (March), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (the EU finance ministers) will meet in Stockholm to discuss banking union and banking sector developments and hold a debrief on the IMF spring meetings and preparations for the G7 meeting in May. ECB Chair Christine Lagarde will participate in a press conference after the meeting.

Pope Francis begins a three-day visit to Hungary.

·       An information meeting of the EU Economy and Finance Ministers along with EU Central Bank Governors (ECOFIN) will be held in Stockholm. They will discuss planning for the reconstruction of Ukraine and coordination of support among nations as well as long-term perspectives on sustainable public finance.

·       In the UK,  Civil servants who are members of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union will strike over pay and working conditions. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone GDP (Q1)

·       Germany GDP (Q1), Inflation (April), Import Prices (March), Unemployment (April)

·       France GDP (Q1), Inflation (April), PPI (March)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

·       Spain Inflation (April), GDP (Q1), Current Account (February)

·       Italy GDP (Q1) Industrial Sales (February), Industrial Sales (February)

·       Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Tourism Revenues (Q1), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Tourist Arrivals (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (March), Private Sector Credit (March), M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 29, 2023:

Global

·       The G-7 Digital and Tech Ministers meet in Gunma, Japan, today and tomorrow. The focus of the meeting is expected to be the safe use of artificial intelligence. Current policies in this area vary from country to country, which makes it difficult for companies with cross-border operations to adopt the technology. Japan will suggest that when countries introduce regulations, they should consider the characteristics of each AI product and the situations in which it will be used.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Hasina will meet with World Bank President David Malpass and other senior World Bank officials and sign an expected $2.5 billion loan agreement.

·       Niue holds parliamentary elections (Niue is a coral atoll situation in the middle of the South Pacific within the triangle boundary of Tonga, Samoan, and Cook Islands).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·    NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, April 30, 2023:

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds a vote on several constitutional amendments, including extending the presidential term from five to seven years, adding that Uzbekistan officially known as a “legal, social and secular state” (adding the word “secular”), adding a living minimum wage, guaranteeing the rights of the disabled, and a number of other amendments.

·       French Polynesia holds the 2nd round of Assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) begins a 48-hour walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) travels to Israel. He will be leading a bipartisan delegation of 20 members of the House.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will also be visiting.  McCarthy is expected to meet with Amir Ohana, the Speaker of the Knesset, and McCarthy will also address the Knesset. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

April 21 - 23, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from stories we saw in the last week.  Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.  

·       “Russian Blackmail and the Black Sea Grain Initiative: The (Limited) Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Food Security” Finish Institute of International Affairs

Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilizers. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to fears of an impending food crisis, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.  The UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) helped mitigate a global food security crisis. The BSGI runs on a five-month timeline, needing to be renewed each time.  In March, Russia would only renew the GSGI until May.  What happens if Russia pulls out of the deal?

·       “Wheat is the New Fault Line for Ukraine in Europe” Foreign Policy

The European Union is rushing to appease enraged Eastern European farmers after Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria banned Ukrainian grain imports, contentious moves that threaten to undermine EU solidarity over Ukraine and compound pressures on already-vulnerable Ukrainian producers. 

·       Supply Chain Interdependence and Geopolitical Vulnerability: the Case of Taiwan and High-End Semiconductors” The Rand Corporation

To assess the geopolitical implications of Taiwan's semiconductor dominance, the authors conducted a tabletop exercise (TTX) with representatives from the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government and a variety of industries that rely on semiconductors. The exercise revealed that there are generally no good short-term options for responding to the disruption to the global semiconductor supply chain that would result if China attempted to unify with Taiwan.

·       “The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects”  Congressional Budget Office

The U.S. dollar plays an important role as the most widely used currency in global goods, services, and financial markets. Strong international demand for U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated assets associated with the dollar’s status as an international currency has increased the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets and the value of dollar-denominated assets in financial markets. As a result, the dollar’s status has contributed to persistent U.S. trade deficits and, by lowering interest rates, to increased access to credit for U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government. Over the next decade, the dollar’s international use is expected to decline very gradually, in the Congressional Budget Office’s assessment, but it will not be overtaken by either of its closest competitors, the euro or the Chinese renminbi.

“Economic sanctions against Russia: How Effective? How Durable?”  Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Sanctions have contributed to a sharp compression of Russian imports, forced Russia’s military and industry to source from more costly and inefficient suppliers at home and abroad, and slowly begun to put a squeeze on Russian government finances. Russia’s efforts to circumvent the sanctions have had only small-scale success in transshipping goods via Middle Eastern and Asian countries and have made it highly dependent on the Chinese market. Over time, sanctions-imposed costs will increasingly burden the Russian economy and impair its capacity to pursue conventional warfare.

Chart of the Week 

India Overtakes China as the Most Populous Nation in the World

India’s population is overtaking China’s population with an estimated 1.428 billion people compared to China’s 1.425 billion.  Of note, India’s population is expected to continue growing as China’s substantially declines.  Population growth is politically sensitive in both countries but for different reasons.  China argues, according to its foreign ministry, “…that population dividends don’t only depend on quantity but also quality” – a response to growing concern the smaller Chinese population will negatively impact China’s economy and the global economy.   

India faces the challenge of catching up to China economically as it lags behind China in terms of foreign direct investment and investment in infrastructure – challenges many economists believe could take India two decades to achieve.

Pew Research recently published an interesting report entitled “Key Facts as India Surpasses China as the World’s Most Populous Country.”  It contains a fascinating set of data points and is well worth the read.

The Global Week Ahead

April 16 - 23, 2023

The world returns to a more fulsome schedule following last week’s Easter and Passover holidays.  This week, we are paying particular attention to Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s visit to Moscow for meetings with his Russian counterpart and President Vladimir Putin.  Also this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba through April 21st.  Russia has supported Cuban, Nicaragua, and Venezuela with substantial military and intelligence assistance over the years.  It is clearly looking to expand its reach and influence in the US backyard.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching the release of Chinese GDP data and a large amount of economic data from the UK, including unemployment and the inflation outlook.  Also, the US Federal Reserve will release its third Beige Book of 2023.  There will be a lot of central bank speeches this week, particularly in the US and EU.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 16, 2023:

Global

·       G-7 foreign ministers will meet in Japan to discuss issues, including Ukraine and China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  They are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and existing China-Russian military technology development programs.

·       China will implement temporary no-fly and no-sail zones in a maritime zone 74 miles (119 kilometers) northeast of Taiwan due to risks of falling "rocket debris," likely from a potential Chinese satellite launch.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Indonesia's President Joko Widodo opened the Hanover technology fair in Hanover, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Monday, April 17, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the war in Yemen. In the afternoon, they will meet on North Korea and its growing nuclear threat.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress returns from a two-week recess. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he will return to the chamber for its session this week following a serious fall and rehab.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba through April 21st.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will give remarks at a Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April), NAHB Housing Market Index (April)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (January), Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and South Korea will hold their first meetings between foreign and defense ministers in five years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-year MLF Announcement

·       India WPI Fuel/Manufacturing/Inflation/Food Index Reports (March)

·       Singapore Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade  (March), Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO holds their Conference on Arms Control, Disarmament and WMDs Non-Proliferation in Washington, D.C.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden Attends the award ceremony of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany to Angela Merkel, former Federal Chancellor of Germany in Berlin.

·       Russia will hold TransRussia 2023, an international exposition for transportation and logistics.  The event goes through April 19th in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the Council on Foreign Relations' C. Peter McCullough Series on International Economics speech in New York.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a keynote speech at the seminar "Diverse and effective boards in a changing and competitive landscape" organized by the European University Institute's Florence School of Banking and Finance and European Central Bank.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen chairs a panel at the seminar "Diverse and effective boards in a changing and competitive landscape" organized by the European University Institute's Florence School of Banking and Finance and European Central Bank.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Jon Cunliffe gives a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit.

·       Italy Inflation (March), CPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Former South African President Jacob Zuma's court hearings regarding corruption charges will resume in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, April 18, 2023: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), and Libya sanctions, followed by closed consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Considerations for a Central Bank Digital Currency” at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy Event, Georgetown University McDonough School of Business, Washington, D.C.

·       US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will testify in an oversight hearing before the House Financial Services Committee.  This is expected to be a contentious hearing as Gensler will likely get-tough questioning over a variety of his regulatory proposals.

·       Canadian Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons to discuss the economy, Ottawa, Canada.

·       US New Building Permits (March), Housing Starts (March), Redbook (April 15th)

·       Canada Inflation (March), CPI (March), New Motor Vehicles Sales (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple will open its first store in India.

·       The Shanghai Auto Show kicks off with more than 1,000 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China GDP (Q1), Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Unemployment (March), Auto Production (March), FDI (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Minutes

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Deposit Facility Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Russia, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich is set to appeal against his detention on charges of espionage. 

·       In Estonia, NATO holds its “Locked Shields” cyber war game exercise. More than 38 nations will take part in a host of cyber-attacks to improve their response to assaults on critical infrastructure.

·       EU Environmental Ministers hold an informal meeting in Stockholm, Sweden.  They are expected to conduct a study visit, including test driving electric heavy goods vehicles and other electric vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Chapter Zero’s 3rd Anniversary Dinner, London, England.

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (February), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April), ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       UK Unemployment (February), Average Earnings (3 month/Yearly – February)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Wednesday, April 19, 2023:

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Global Interdependence Center entitled “Cryptocurrency and the Future of Global Finance,” the University of Florida Sarasota-Manatee, Sarasota, Florida.

·       New York Fed President John Williams will speak at a Money Marketeers of New York University dinner in New York.

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will l take part in a fireside chat Wednesday at the FDX Global Summit Spring 2023 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (April 14th), Fed Beige Book

·       Canada Housing Starts (March), Raw Materials Prices (March), PPI (March)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (February)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan's Islamabad High Court will hear former Prime Minister Imran Khan's appeal against the election commission's decision to disqualify him from running in the country's general elections later in 2023.

·       Huawei holds its annual Global Analyst Summit in Shenzhen through Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Industrial Production (February), Capacity Utilization (February), Reuters Tankan Index (April)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April 7th)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Swedish Minister Pål Jonson receives US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for bilateral meetings to discuss Sweden’s accession into NATO in Stockholm.  Austin then will host the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Portugal to hold talks with Portuguese PM Antonio Costa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives a keynote speech at the Enterprise Ireland Summit in Dublin, Ireland.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung in Mannheim Germany.

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (March), Current Account February), Inflation (March), Construction Output (February), CPI (March), Current Account (January & February)

·       UK Inflation (March), PPI (March), Retail Price Index (March)

·       Italy Current Account (February)

·       Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation (March), Retail Sales (February) 

Thursday, April 20, 2023: 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarkets at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Odessa College, Odessa, Texas.

·       Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on the economic and policy outlook Thursday at the Akron Roundtable Signature Series in Akron, Ohio.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in an armchair discussion on regional and national economic conditions at Eastern Florida State College.

·       US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April), Jobless claims (April 15th), Philly Fed Business Conditions (April), Philly Fed Employment (April), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April), Philly Fed Prices Paid (April), Philly Fed New Orders (April), Existing Home Sales (March), CB Leading Index (March)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1-Year, Loan Prime Rate 5-Year

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Tertiary Industry Index (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden participates in the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, hosted by President Joe Biden via videoconference.

·       NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will meet Czech President Petr Pavel at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message on the occasion of the 55th anniversary of the Central Bank of Malta.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Palo Alto, California.

·       ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       France Business Confidence (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)

·       Italy Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey FX Reserves (April), Central Government Debt (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 21, 2023:

Global

·       Eid al-Fitr is celebrated by Muslims around the world today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula visits Portugal and Spain through April 26th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a keynote speech at Georgetown University’s Carrol Round Conference.

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Council will meet.  The preliminary agenda for the public session includes the Council’s proposed analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s proposed guidance on nonbank financial company designations.

·        

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Global Services and Composite PMIs (April)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation (March), Jibun Bank Services and Manufacturing and Composite PMIs (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April 7th), FX Reserves (April 14th), Deposit Growth (April 7)

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services and Composite PMIs (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine's defense donors will meet at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Reean in Brussels.  She will then meet with Czech President Petr Pavel.

·       In the UK, Extinction Rebellion, along with several other climate groups, plans to hold a rally that it hopes will bring 100,000 attendees to central London to push for action on climate change.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarkets at "Catedra de Economía y Sociedad" organized by Fundación La Caixa in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a virtual speech at an event on "Accounting for climate change within central bank and banking supervision mandates" organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a virtual event organized by Colegio de Economistas de Madrid on the occasion of the presentation of a special issue of the Economistas magazine. 

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Global Services and Composite PMIs (April), Government Budget to GDP (2022)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Global Services and Composite PMIs (April)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI and Global Services and Composite PMIs (April)

·       Retail Sales (March)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Global Services and Composite PMIs (April)

·       Italy Construction Output (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s opposition parties are expected to resume anti-government protests over expected electrical reforms and cost-of-living adjustments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, April 22, 2023:

Global

·       The 53rd Earth Day is celebrated.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, April 23, 2023:

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, all UK phones are scheduled to receive a test emergency alert. The system is planned to be used to issue warnings about life-threatening event such as floods and wildfires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

April 14-16, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from stories we saw in the last week. We focus this week on the rapidly accelerating search for critical minerals needed for alternative energy and electric vehicles. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great Easter and a week ahead!

·       “A Fresh Look at North Korea at Night” 38 North

In January 2014, astronauts on board the International Space Station (ISS) took a photo that dramatically illustrated the economic divide between North Korea and its neighbors. It showed both South Korea and China bathed in nighttime light while North Korea was largely dark. Nine years on, has anything changed? And what does that mean for assessing North Korean risk to the region (and the world)? 38 North (a publication of the Stimson Center in Washington, DC) offers an in-depth interactive assessment of what has changed and why.

·       “How Indonesia Used Chinese Industrial Investments to Turn Nickel into the New Gold” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. This study shows how China’s Belt and Road Initiative helped build an industrial complex in Indonesia—but contestations at the local and national levels compelled Chinese players to adapt to rapidly shifting Indonesian cross-currents.

Will the scramble for rare earth produce a transatlantic trade accord?  Peterson Institute for International Economics

As the world invests heavily in the digital economy and green transition, the need for these rare earth elements—including bauxite, cobalt, lithium, and nickel—will increase five to six times by 2030 and seven times by 2050, according to estimates by the European Commission and the World Bank. But the European Union and the United States import 98 and 80 percent, respectively, of these rare earth from China, which controls large parts of the world’s mining and processing. In a recent meeting, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and President Joseph R. Biden discussed a rare earth/critical mineral strategy and jointly announced that they would immediately begin negotiations on a targeted critical minerals agreement. A future deal could lead to the EU being treated as an equal partner in an equivalent of a free trade agreement, thereby qualifying the EU for certain tax credits for electric vehicles in the IRA. The objective is to have an agreement where critical materials sourced or processed in Europe are recognized as sourced or processed in the US. 

Several countries in the EU have minerals deep underground—for instance, France, Greece, Greenland, Portugal, and northern Scandinavia. LKAB, the state-owned mining company in northern Sweden, estimates that most critical minerals can be found in Swedish territory, with reserves measuring a million tons, potentially making Sweden the biggest supplier in Europe.

·       “Schell on the Long Arc of US-China and Long Reach of Leninism” ChinaTalk podcast on Spotify

How did Chinese President Xi Jinping’s formative years influence how he views the world today?  Very few in the West understand what formed him. Veteran China scholar Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations, looks back at decades of writing and working on China, weathering the cycles of the country opening up and shutting down, and gives his two cents on what’s going on in Xi’s head.

Chart of the Week 

The Spiking Demand for Critical Raw Materials And the Few Countries Which Produce Them

China has moved to restrict the export of raw materials critical for green technologies.  But they are not alone – India, too, has placed new restrictions on their exports.  But China dominates the production supply chain, as the chart below shows.  As the US and EU move to aggressively ramp up the production of electric vehicles and alternative energy production facilities, there is a only a few countries that produce these raw materials – setting up a major geopolitical race for access.

The Global Week Ahead

April 9 - 16, 2023

We hope everyone has had a joyful Easter and Passover.  This week, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) hold spring meetings in Washington, DC.  The big focus will be on global inflation and how to bring it under control as well as discussions on how to best deal with growing debt problems in a number of emerging markets.

Geopolitically, we will be watching as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – better known as Lula – travels to China, where he is expected to sign a number of trade agreements.  He will also be discussing with Chinese President Xi Jinping how to possibly bring a peace deal to Ukraine and Russia. 

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.  And G-7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Japan to discuss Ukraine and China.

On the global economic agenda, markets will be focused on the US CPI and the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meeting minutes for signs of where the Fed will go next in terms of rate increases.  Also, this week the U.K. will be releasing its GDP report.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 9, 2023:

Global

·       Easter is observed by much of the Christian world globally.

·       Palm Sunday is observed today in the Orthodox church.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds local elections in 47 prefectures and several major cities.  The elections are considered a major indicator for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to call for early parliamentary elections following a slide in his poll numbers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgian opposition groups will stage protests in the capital Tbilisi against corruption in the judicial system.

·       Kosovo Constitution Day is observed.

·       The Church of England begins a 28-day period of prayer leading to the coronation of King Charles next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, April 10, 2023:

Global

·       The World Bank and International Monetary Fund hold their spring meetings through April 16th in Washington, D.C.

·       The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on threats to international peace and security.  Specifically, they will discuss risks stemming from violations of the agreements regulating the export of weapons and military equipment.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will host Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manolo and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez for a “2+2 Meeting” in Washington, DC.  This is the first such meeting in seven years.

·       The U.S. Congress is out of session this week.

·       Federal Trade Commission Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya (D) and Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will be the keynote speakers at the University of Utah Quinney College of Law event titled "Do Consumers Still Reign Supreme in the Antitrust Hierarchy? How Antitrust Can Promote the Interests of Workers and Other Stakeholders in the Economy."

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion organized by the Economics Review at New York University.

· U.S. Wholesale Inventories (February), Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout,  Car Production (March)

·       Mexico Auto Production (March), Auto Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China and Japan will hold their 15th round of dialogues on maritime affairs, which is expected to focus on defense hotlines and activities around disputed territories.

·       Bangladesh is bracing for the opposition parties and labor unions to begin nationwide protests over legislation being considered by parliament that would prohibit strikes in sectors and industries deemed “essential.” The Essential Services Bill began to be considered last week by parliament, but nationwide anger has resulted in protests.

·       China hosts the International Consumer Product Expo in Haikou, Hainan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to attend his first official press conference.

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Japan Current Account (February), Consumer Confidence (March), Eco Watchers Survey (March)

·       Indonesia F.X. Reserves (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Easter Holiday is observed in most of Europe.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Employees of Morocco's National Ports Agency will hold a general strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Tuesday, April 11, 2023:

Global

·       G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Washington, DC, as part of the World Bank/IMF Meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will visit the U.K. and Ireland through Friday.  He will be there mainly to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the US-brokered Good Friday Accord.  President Biden is expected to discuss with U.K. leaders the prospects for reviving the US-UK Free Trade Agreement.

·       Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) starts his week-long visit to China that was postponed at the end of last month. Lula plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and sign about 20 agreements.  It is also expected more than 200 Brazilian executives will join in the trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Economic Club of Chicago.

·       Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a town hall at Montana State University.

·       Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook at a Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation event. 

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (March), Redbook (April 8th), WASDE Report

·       Brazil Inflation (March)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine and U.S. armed forces will kick off their annual joint military exercises that will run through April 28th.  This is the 38th annual “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercise held in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (March), PPI (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April), NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Switzerland, the country’s two chambers of parliament will hold an extraordinary session to debate the deal negotiated by the government for UBS to buy Credit Suisse.

·       French President Emanual Macron will visit the Netherlands for meetings.

· U.K.’s Civil Servants are expected to go out on strike over pay.  Also, junior doctors are expected to go on strike over pay for 96 hours.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Retail Sales (February)

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March), BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Russia Current Account (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (March), Manufacturing Production (February) 

Wednesday, April 12, 2023:

Global

·       The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)  is expected to release the strictest limits on tailpipe emissions for cars, and light-duty trucks, along with standards for heavy-duty trucks. The performance-based standards will address carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and other pollutants from vehicles with model years 2027 through 2032.

·       Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy will host its 2023 Energy Summit. It will feature speakers like Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Larry Fink, among other industry leaders.  

· Mexico's Supreme Court will decide whether to maintain a suspension against a portion of the government's electoral reforms.

·       European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will speak at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, on trade policy, industrial policy, and transatlantic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its March 21-22 meeting.

·       Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver opening remarks at the Investing in Rural America 2023 conference.

·       US MBA Mortgage Index (April 7), Inflation (March), CPI (March), Monthly Budget Statement

·       Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and press conference.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March), Outstanding Loan Growth (March), Total Social Financing (March), M2 Money Supply (March)

·       India Industrial Production (February), Inflation (March)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (February), Bank Lending (March), PPI (March)

·       Australia Building Permits (February), Private House Approvals (February)

·       South Korea Unemployment (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at an Institute of International Finance event on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an event organized by Asociacion para el Progreso de Dirección in Madrid, Spain.

·       Russia Inflation (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Nigeria, two major trade unions will decide whether to strike today over cash shortages.  They previously planned to go on strike on March 29th but deferred the timing as they spoke with the government about finding alternative solutions. The cash shortages are the result of Nigeria’s central bank swapping out old currency for redesigned notes, resulting in businesses closing and leaving millions unable to withdraw money from banks and ATMs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Thursday, April 13, 2023:

Global

·       The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US PPI (March), Initial Jobless Claims (April 8th)

·       Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former leader of the Opposition Congress Rahul Gandhi is in court for a second hearing to appeal against the defamation charge that has barred him from parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March),

·       Australia Unemployment (March), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       South Korea Export Prices & Import Prices (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· E.U. foreign policy head Josep Borrell is expected to visit China through Saturday.  This comes on the heels of last week’s visit by French President Emmanuel Macron and E.U. President Ursula von der Leyden, who was seeking China’s help in bringing an end to the Ukrainian War as well as discussing growing trade tensions between the E.U. and China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (February)

·       Germany Inflation (March), CPI (March), Current Account (February)

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (March), GDP (February), Manufacturing Production (February) Goods Trade Balance (February), Industrial Production (February), Balance of Trade (February), Construction Output (February), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Morocco, pharmacist unions and healthcare industry groups are expected to go on strike for 24 hours, demanding the government better protect the pharmacy sector.  Currently, a large number of pharmacies in the country are facing bankruptcy resulting from the government not honoring tax exemptions for the year 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey F.X. Reserves (April 7th)

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (March), Inflation (March), Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (February), Gold Production (February)

Friday, April 14, 2023:

Global

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       International Energy Agency Oil Mark Report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold a press briefing at IMF/World Bank spring meeting.

·       Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan will speak at the 23rd Annual Loyola Antitrust Colloquium at the Loyola University Chicago School of Law. The event, hosted by the Institute for Consumer Antitrust Studies, will also feature conversations with Sarah Allen of the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will discuss his outlook on the economy at the Graybar National Training Conference in San Antonio, Texas.

· U.S. Retail Sales (March), Import Sales (March), Export Sales (March), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March), Capacity Utilization (March), Michigan Consumer Expectations (April), Michigan Current Conditions (April), Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February), Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (April)

·       Argentina Inflation (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India WPI Fuel (March), WPI Manufacturing (March), WPI Inflation (March), F.X. Reserves (April 7th), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)

·       Singapore GDP (Q1), Monetary Policy Statement, Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       ’s Constitutional Court is expected to render a verdict on the legality of the government’s pension bill, which has caused widespread violent protests in the country. They will also rule as to whether a nationwide referendum can be called to vote on the pension reform effort. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)

·       France Inflation (March)

·       Spain CPI (March), Inflation (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Auto Production (March)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, April 15, 2023:

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Group of Seven chair Japan will host environment ministers and officials from the grouping in Sapporo, Hokkaido, the nation's leading region in developing renewables and carbon capture. During the two-day event, officials will discuss how to tackle the climate crisis while ensuring economic growth and energy security and conclude on Sunday with a joint statement.

·       The China Import and Export Fair will commence on Saturday in the southern city of Guangzhou. Better known as the Canton Fair, some 35,000 companies, including 508 from overseas, are expected to pitch sales on a wide range of goods from household appliances to machinery. The event will last until May 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (March), FDI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

The Jewish Orthodox Holy Fire ceremony is held at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, April 16, 2023:

Global

·       G-7 foreign ministers will meet in Japan to discuss issues, including Ukraine and China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

April 7 - 9, 2023

Happy Easter! Here are our recommended reads from stories we saw in the last week. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great Easter and a week ahead!

· “The electric grid is about to be transformed” The Economist

At present, 62% of the energy delivered as electricity comes from fossil fuels; that has to come down to more or less zero. A lot of its replacement will be in the form of cheap wind and solar, and that presents a serious challenge to grid operators. It means a lot of new connections – a lot of new relationships. And a lot of state regulations need to be changed, too.

· “China as an International Lender of Last Resort” AIDDATA, A Research Lab at William & Mary College

This paper shows that China has created a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in distress. AIDDATA built a comprehensive new dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and concluded the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) global swap line network had been heavily used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in emergency liquidity support to crisis countries. In addition, the research documents that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have extended an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. In total, China’s overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20% of total IMF lending over the past decade, and bailout amounts are growing fast.

However, China’s rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) have relatively high-interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Our results have implications for the international financial and monetary system, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent.

· “Geopolitics and Fragmentation Emerge as Serious Financial Stability Threats” International Monetary Fund Blog (This blog is significantly expanded upon accessible data and charts in Chapter 3 of the forthcoming IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2023)

The blog and forthcoming report raise concerns about global economic and financial fragmentation, having intensified in recent years amid rising geopolitical tensions, strained ties between the United States and China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ultimately, the authors argue policymakers should be aware that imposing financial restrictions for national security reasons could have unintended consequences for global macro-financial stability. Given the significant risks to global macro-financial stability, multilateral efforts should be strengthened to reduce geopolitical tensions and economic and financial fragmentation.

· “The U.S. Semiconductor Ecosystem Map” – Semiconductor Industry Association

As the impact of the CHIPS Act, passed by the U.S. Congress last year, begins to take hold, the Semiconductor Industry Association has published its first U.S. Semiconductor Ecosystem Map. The map, which is interactive, provides a comprehensive guide to various locations where research and development, I.P. and chip design software providers, semiconductor fabrication, and suppliers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and suppliers are located – showing the significant breadth of the sector geographically across the U.S.

Chart of the Week 

Russian President Putin’s Drain on the Civilian Employment Sector

As Russian President Vladimir Putin desperately seeks to expand the size of Russian armed forces, it is causing significant labor shortages in the economy.  It is reported Putin is looking for another 400,000 contract recruits to throw into battle in Ukraine.  Bloomberg, citing data from the Russian Statistical Service, shows which sectors are suffering the most from lost labor.