The Global Week Ahead

February 26 - March 5, 2023

This week, Ukraine and China will dominate the geopolitical calendar.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the White House for talks on Ukraine on Friday while G20 Foreign Ministers meet in India to discuss the Ukraine War, food security, and other pressing issues.  The meeting is likely to be quite tense as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has confirmed he will be in attendance.

China will be holding the National People’s Congress later this week, where a host of new government appointments will be made, including the new Chinese Premier, the Finance Minister, and the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, among others.  We will also see Beijing unveil new policies to energize the economy post-COVID along with its 2023 budget.

Global markets this week will be looking at key economic data releases in China, Japan, the EU, and the US.  US data releases this week.  China PMIs, EU CPIs, and US consumer confidence are most in focus. In Japan, the candidates for Governor and the two Deputy Governors of the Bank of Japan have confirmation hearings in the Upper House of the Japanese Parliament this week.  They are likely to be quickly confirmed.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Mexico, opponents of reforms to Mexico's National Electoral Institute will protest in major cities nationwide.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee holds the second plenary session through February 28th in Beijing.   It is expected they will hold discussions on party reforms and state organizations.

·       Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party to hold their party convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy's leading center-left opposition party, the Democratic Party, will elect its new leader.

·       The Czech Republic's foreign minister, Jan Lipavsky, will begin a four-day visit to India to discuss bilateral issues and participate in the India-EU Business and Sustainability Conclave.

·       In the UK, Manchester United plays Newcastle United in the Carabou Cup Final at Wembley Stadium, London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait observes Liberation Day, remembering the day the country was liberated by Iraqi occupation in 1991 as a result of Operation Desert Storm.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 27, 2023:  

Global

·       The UN’s 52nd regular session of the Human Rights Council will be held in Geneva.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver remarks. 

·       Later in the afternoon, Secretary-General Guterres will deliver remarks at the Opening of the High-Level Pledging Event on the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen. He will also hold a number of bilateral meetings throughout the day.   

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

·       The 10th Annual World Ocean Summit & Expo begins in Lisbon, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s SpaceX Crew-6 mission is scheduled to launch from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

·       The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson gives a virtual lecture at Harvard University Macroeconomics Course (Ec10) entitled “Recent Inflation and the Dual Mandate.”

·       US Durable Goods Orders (January), Pending Home Sales (January), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)

·       Canada Current Account (Q4)

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Unemployment (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (January)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand will host the Cobra Gold Exercise 2023, a multinational military exercise involving more than 7,000 troops from 30 countries, including the US, Japan, and South Korea.

·       Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's upstart Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party (United Thai Nation Party) will hold an event to officially welcome 30 defecting lawmakers into the party as general elections near.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor-candidate Kazuo Ueda appears at his confirmation hearing before the Upper House of the Japanese Diet.  He testified before the Lower House last week and is expected to be swiftly confirmed.

·       Japan Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales (Q4), Company Gross Profits (Q4), Business Inventories (Q4)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       Malaysia PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Azerbaijan through February 28th to discuss bilateral issues and the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which Russia is attempting to mediate.

·       Today is the ninth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Crimea.

·       EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel will host Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti in an attempt to normalize ties between the two nations.  Last week, EU officials warned Russia was meddling in the talks and attempting to derail them.

·       The EU Telecommunications, Transport, and Energy Ministers will informally meet in Brussels through February 28th.

·       British Medical Association strike ballot closes for NHS consultants to decide whether they will stage industrial action over pay levels.

·       UK’s PCS Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) staff will strike as part of a national campaign over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy term.

·       Madrid, Spain hosts the Mobile World Congress, the telecom industry's biggest annual gathering in the world.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane gives a lecture on "Macro-Financial Stability in the EU: some lessons on the occasion of Fifty Years of Irish Membership of the EU" at an event organized by the Consulate General of Ireland and Goethe Universität in Frankfurt.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy Victoria Saporta gives a speech on the interaction between financial regulation and competitiveness and growth. The speech will be at the BoE. The British Parliament is currently debating a Financial Services and Markets Bill that will redefine the PRA’s responsibilities. While the PRA’s primary objectives will not change, the PRA is very likely to be given a new secondary objective.

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (February), Industrial Sentiment (February), Selling Price Expectations (February), Services Sentiment (February), Consumer Confidence (February), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Loans to Households (January), Loans to Companies (January), M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Italy Business Confidence/Consumer Confidence (February)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), Economic Confidence Index (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s naval exercises with Russia and China are scheduled to conclude.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 28, 2023:

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and participate in a meeting of the C5+1 format, which is comprised of the United States and the Central Asian states.

·       The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the limits of President Biden’s Student-Loan forgiveness program.

·       The US Department of Commerce begins accepting applications for the first round of grants created by the CHIPS Act ($53 billion).  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO Austan Goolsbee gives a speech at the Garatoni Center for Advance Manufacturing and Automation at an event hosted by Ivy Tech Community College in Goshen, IN.

·       US Goods Trade Balance (January), Retail Inventories/Wholesale Inventories (January), Redbook (February 25th ), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (December), Chicago PMI (February), CB Consumer Confidence (February), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February), Richmond Fed Services Index (February), Dallas Fed Services Index (February),

·       Canada GDP (Q4)

·       Brazil Unemployment (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Colombia Unemployment (January), Cement Production (January)

·       Uruguay Current Account (January), Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan expects to sign an agreement with the IMF for a $7 billion loan.

·       Taiwan celebrates Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The two candidates for Deputy Governors of Japan’s Central Bank, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida, will testify at their confirmation hearing before the Upper House of the Japanese Diet.  Both testified at a confirmation hearing before the Lower House last week and are expected to be confirmed quickly.

·       Japan Retail Sales (January), Industrial Production (January), Housing Starts (January), Construction Orders (January)

·       India GDP (Q4), Government Budget Value (January), Infrastructure Output (January)

·       New Zealand Business Confidence (February), Building Permits (January)

·       Australia Housing Credit (January), Retail Sales (January), Private Sector Credit (January), Current Account (Q4), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February), Ai Group Industry Index (February), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Singapore bank Lending (January), Balance of Trade (February), Import Prices/Export Prices (January), PPI (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade(February), Industrial Production (February), Inflation (February),  Retail Sales (February), Tourist Arrivals (February), FDI (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (December)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (January), Current Account (January), Private Consumption (January), Private Investment (January), Coincident Report (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finnish Parliament is expected to vote to approve Finland becoming a member of NATO.

·       German Bundestag (parliament) commissioner for the armed forces, Eva Högl, will present the 2022 annual report on the state of the Bundeswehr (armed forces), which is traditionally also published in English on the German parliament’s website (here).  The report will be seen as a benchmark of how far and how fast the German military has grown and improved in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

·       In Scotland and in northern England, teachers will go on strike.

·       In the UK, Amazon UK warehouse workers will go on strike.

·       Cyprus celebrates Green Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Bundesbank Annual Report, Import Prices (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February), GDP (Q4)

·       Spain Inflation (February), Current Account)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (February), GDP (Q4)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (December)

·       Poland GDP (Q4)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey GDP (Q4)

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (January), M2 & M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni makes a state visit to South Africa.

·       Deadline for negotiations between the government of Guinea and Chinese mining company Baowu over the Simandou iron ore mine.  This will be one of the largest iron ore mining operations in the world.  China is expected to build 235 bridges and tunnels that run up to 11 kilometers to support the project.  The project puts Australia iron-ore exports to China at risk as China seeks alternative supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment (Q4), Balance of Trade (January), Private Sector Credit (January), M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation (February)

·       Kenya Inflation (February) 

Wednesday, March 1, 2023:

Global

·       The G-20 Foreign Ministers meet in New Delhi, India.  Russian Foreign Minister has confirmed his attendance despite the fact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be discussed, as well as food security and debt troubles in developing countries.  While there, the foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the US will hold a working breakfast of the Quad to confirm the Quad leaders meeting in May in Sydney, Australia.

·       In the Northern Hemisphere, today is the first day of meteorological spring.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai in Washington, D.C., to discuss the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act through March 3.

·       House Democrats will hold their annual strategy retreat in Baltimore through March 3rd.  President Biden is expected to speak to the caucus.  House Republicans are expected to hold their retreat in Orlando, Florida, on March 19-21.

·       The Grupo de Puebla (a gathering of progressive/left-wing parliamentarians and groups from Latin America and Spain) will be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina.  Argentine President Alberto Fernandez and Vice President Christina Kirchner will host and attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), ISM Manufacturing PMI/Manufacturing Employment/Manufacturing New Orders Figures (February), Construction Spending (January),  MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb. 24), MBA Mortgage Market Index (Feb. 24)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Balance of Trade (February)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (February), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Peru Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Nakagawa appears before a hearing of the Japanese Diet.

·       South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day.

·       Today is Yap Day in the Yap State, one of the four states that make up the Federated States of Micronesia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Nakagawa Junko speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Fukushima.

·       China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMIs (February)

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance Trade (February),

·       Australia GDP (Q4), Monthly CPI Indicator (January), Commodity Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Export Prices/Import Prices (Q4), Terms of Trade (Q4)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation (February)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (February)

·       Pakistan Inflation (February), Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will begin a four-nation tour of Central African countries in an effort to counter growing Chinese and Russian influence.  He will visit Gabon to attend the One Forest Summit.  He will then travel to Angola, the Republic of Congo, and finish the tour in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing is expected to go on a 48-hour non-stop strike over pay issues until March 3rd.

·       In the UK, teachers in the Midlands and east of England will go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Cost-of-Living Crisis Conference in London.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment (February), Inflation (February)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), New Car Sales (February)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (January), Mortgage Lending (January), S&P Global/SIPS Manufacturing PMI (February), Net Lending to Individuals (January)

·       Italy Full-year GDP Growth (2023)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (January), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), New Car Sales (February)

·       Russia GDP (December & January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment (January), Real Wages (December), Retail Sales (January), Business Confidence (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February), Total Vehicle Sales (February)

Thursday, March 2, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama hosts the Our Ocean Conference in Panama City.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks virtually at the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America event on the economic outlook.

·       US Unit Labor Costs (Q4), Nonfarm Productivity (Q4), Initial Jobless Claims (February 25),

·       Brazil GDP (Q4),  IPC-Fipe Inflation (February)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (January), Unemployment (January), Fiscal Balance (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India hosts the Raisina Dialogue, their flagship conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics.  The three-day conference – organized by the Ministry of External Affairs and the new Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation (a think tank), will feature a number of cabinet members, CEOs, and academics.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Takata Hajime speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Kanagawa.

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (February), Capital Spending (Q4)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

·       Philippines PPI (January)

·       Australia Building Permits (January), Private House Approvals (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February

·       Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will give a government statement on Thursday on the topic “One Year of Zeitenwende — Strengthening Germany’s Security and Alliances, Continuing to Support Ukraine.” His speech will be followed by a debate lasting around 90 minutes. On February 27, 2022, Scholz spoke his most well-known sentence up to this point during his government statement after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “We are living through a watershed era. And that means that the world afterward will no longer be the same as the world before.”

·       EU President von der Leyen travels to Stockholm, Sweden, to meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.  She will then participate in a working dinner with Prime Minister Kristersson and the European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT).

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit India for talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  More than 600 Italian companies have large operations in India.

·       Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will visit Germany to meet with high-ranking officials.  They will discuss bilateral trade issues and the ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels to adopt resolutions on distance marketing of consumer financial services and data collection issues.

·       In the UK, teachers in London, Wales, and the south of England will go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at Wales Week in London: 2023 economic outlook – a year of growth or survival?

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Money Market Contact Group (MMCG) meeting in Frankfurt.

·       Eurozone Inflation (February), Unemployment (January), CPI Flash (February)

·       France Budget Balance (January)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

·       Spain Unemployment (February)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (January), Inflation (February), CPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (Feb 24), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ethiopia celebrates Adwa Victory Day, marking Ethiopia’s victory over Italy in 1896.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Friday, March 3, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) releases the Food Price Index.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to visit President Biden in Washington, D.C.  It is expected they will primarily focus on additional aid to Ukraine as well as discuss the Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on the EU’s electric vehicle industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman speaks on a panel entitled “Design Issues for Central Bank Facilities in the Future” at the Chicago Booth Workshop on Market Dysfunction in Chicago.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Racial Inequality Conference organized by the Laboratory for Aggregate Economics and Finance at the University of California-Santa Barbara and co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Cleveland.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks in person on "What's Keeping Inflation Elevated?" before the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) 2023 Economic Summit, in Stanford, California

·       US S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs (February), Total Vehicle Sales (February)

·       Canada Building Permits (January), Labor Productivity (Q4)

·       Brazil PPI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February)

·       Colombia PPI (February), Exports (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia’s Avalon International Air Show begins in Geelong, Victoria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (February)

·       India S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), FX Reserves (February 24)

·       Japan Unemployment (January) CPIs (February), Jibun Bank Services & Bank Composite PMIs (February)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (February), Retail Sales (January)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services and Composite PMIs (February), Home Loans (January), Investment Lending for Homes (January)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (February)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day the Treaty of San Stefano was signed, recognizing Bulgaria as an independent state in 1879, freeing them from Ottoman control.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at the Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF) in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England’s Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser gives a speech at the Imitative on Global Markets.  He will give opening remarks at a workshop on markets dysfunction.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), PPI (January)

·       Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), New Car Registrations (February)

·       France Industrial Production (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (February), S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI (February)

·       Spain S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Italy GDP (Q4), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), New Car Registrations (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), Vehicle Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Dubai's Expo City will start hosting a Ramadan festival as the emirate tries to re-utilize its Expo 2020 facilities for permanent tourism.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation (January), PPI (February), CPI (February)

·       Lebanon GDP (February)

·       Egypt FX Reserves (February)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Malawi celebrates Martyrs’ Day, honoring their political heroes who gave their lives in the struggle against British colonialism.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (February)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (February) 

Saturday, March 4, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Colombia Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds the National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing – a major event where major policy announcements and government appointments will be announced.  The meetings could last as long as two weeks.  Led by Premier Liqiang in his last public event, the agenda will cover China’s economic situation and growth targets for 2023.  The new Chinese Premier is expected to be announced, and it is likely to be Li Qiang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. Additionally, four Vice Premiers will be announced, including the Vice Premier, who will chair the Financial Stability and Development Committee. Also expected to be named will be the new People’s Bank of China Governor, the Finance Minister, and other major posts.  We expect on Sunday and Monday, the NPC will present The 2023 fiscal budget, and policy support priorities will be unveiled on Monday and on March 8th.  The new Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, is expected to hold his first press conference at the NPC.

·       The Asia Zero Emissions Community ministerial meeting hosted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 5, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Estonia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is the 70th anniversary of Joseph Stalin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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Recommended Weekend Reads

February 24 - 26, 2023 

We thought you might find the following useful reading. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great weekend.

·       “The Dollar Still Dominates – American Financial Power in the Age of Great-Power Competition” Carla Norrlöf, Foreign Affairs

The centrality of the U.S. dollar in world affairs is mainly determined by economic factors, but geopolitical forces appear to be threatening to weaken its top spot in the currency hierarchy. U.S. sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have pushed some countries to further reduce their reliance on the dollar.  But an end to the dollar’s dominance is still unlikely. The dollar is the preferred currency of governments, accounting for approximately 60 percent of central bank reserves in late 2022, compared with the euro’s 20 percent, and the yen’s six percent. Individually, the pound, the Chinese yuan, and the Canadian and Australian dollar represent less than five percent of government reserves. The dollar is also dominant, although less so, in private markets.

·       “Bearing the Brunt: The Impact of the Sanctions on Russia’s Economy and Lessons for the Use of Sanctions on China” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

A new report by the CSIS Economics Program assesses the effects and effectiveness of the international sanctions and export controls aimed at Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It is the first of three reports exploring the feasibility and implications of the United States using economic measures to deter China in a crisis over Taiwan. Subsequent reports will analyze the economic interdependencies and vulnerabilities of the Chinese and U.S. economies and evaluate how economic measures might be deployed during various Taiwan contingencies.

·       “United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine” European Council on Foreign Relations

A new poll suggests that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West;’ European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions. In contrast, citizens in China, India, and Turkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.

·       “Election-Denying Republican Candidates Underperformed in the 2022 Midterms” Janet Malzahn/Andrew B. Hall, Stanford University School of Business

Researchers at Stanford Business School, using  newly collected election data with records of public denials of the results of the 2020 election to estimate the degree to which election-denying Republican candidates for senator, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general over- or under-performed other Republicans in 2022. They found the average vote share of election-denying Republicans in statewide races was approximately 2.3 percentage points lower.

The Global Week Ahead

February 19 - 26, 2023

This Friday marks the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To mark this tragedy, President Biden will visit Poland for two days as a sign of support for Ukraine and NATO. Additionally, the UN General Assembly will meet to discuss the war while the UN Security Council will attempt to move a motion condemning Russia’s action (which Russia will likely veto). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may travel to New York to address the assembled delegates. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the nation on Tuesday, two days before Russia celebrates Defense of the Fatherland Day.

On the economic front, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs will meet in Bengaluru, India. Closer to home, the US will report GDP figures on Tuesday while the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last interest rate meeting. Finally, there are a number of central banks considering interest rate hikes this week, including Turkey, Israel, Argentina, and South Korea.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 19, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to hold convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, February 20,  2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a non-binding resolution to demand Israel end its settlement expansion in the West Bank. The Israeli Cabinet decided last Sunday to approve a plan to legalize nine settlements in the West Bank and build 10,000 housing units in existing settlements in the West Bank. The US is expected to veto the Security Council vote.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden travels to Poland for a two-day visit and meetings with Polish President Andrzej Duda. 

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes his first official visit to Greece.

·       The US observes Presidents Day, a federal holiday. Congress is out of session all week.

·       Canada observes Family Day, a holiday in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India and Australia begin negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement. This is the next step for the two nations who reached an interim trade deal in December 2022.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (5Y)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (January), Current Account (Q4)

·       Philippines PPI (January), Corporate Sector (January),  Employment Growth (January), Industrial Production (January)

·       Indonesia Current Account (Q4)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. It is expected that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will speak to the Council. They will also discuss the Afghanistan situation with the United Nations's Deputy Secretary-General and Chair of the United Nations Sustainable Development Group, Amina Mohammed, who will join via videoconference. They will also discuss the situation in Iran and the situation in Moldova.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority Sam Woods speaks at the Association of British Insurers Annual Dinner in London.

·        In the UK, ambulance workers and Drax power station staff are out on strike. The British Medical Association is expected to announce results of junior doctor strike action ballot.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Construction Output (December), Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Russia Monetary Policy Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s Knesset will hold a first reading of a controversial judicial reform bill. The legislation will allow would grant Knesset lawmakers control over judicial appointments, eliminate judicial review of legislation, and allow parliament to vote down Supreme Court decisions. The country has seen numerous demonstrations over the issue, including one last Monday where more than 100,000 people marched in Jerusalem in opposition. US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a delegation of Democratic Senators are expected to visit Israel on Wednesday, where they will express their concerns over the legislative proposal.

·       The UAE hosts the Idex 2023 Conference in Abu Dhabi, one of the largest defense exhibitions in the world, with more than 130,000 visitors expected from 65 countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (February), Central Government Debt (January)

·       Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the Africa Business Forum 2023 will take place today, on the margins of the thirty-sixth ordinary session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union. The Forum will be jointly convened by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the African Export-Import Bank, with the support of the African Union Commission; Sustainable Energy for All will be a resource partner. 

·       Morocco marks the anniversary of the Arab Uprising. The protests led to constitutional changes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 21, 2023: 

Global

·       the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). 

·       In Paris, the UNESCO Global Conference "Internet for Trust" will take place from 21-23 February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court will hear arguments over the issue of Section 230 – a legal provision that shields internet companies from liability for content provided by third-party users. The case is being brought by the families of more than 100 people killed in a series of attacks by Islamic State terrorists in Paris in November 2015.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February),  Existing Home Sales (January)

·       Canada CPI (January), Inflation Rate (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang hosts Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in Beijing for bilateral talks.

·       TO BE CONFIRMED: Japan and China may hold security talks, the first such meetings in four years. Japanese and Chinese officials agreed to the meeting at the Munich Security Conference this past week. If they do move forward with the meetings this week, the Japan-China Consultations between Diplomatic Authorities reportedly will be held today, and the Japan-China Security Dialogue on February 22nd.

·       The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation of A Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea will hold its 38th meeting. This meeting goes through February 23rd.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/Composite  PMIs (February)

·       Australia Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/Composite  PMIs (February)

·       New Zealand PPI (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a National Address to the Federal Assembly. The last time he gave this address to the nation was in 2021. He skipped giving the address last year because he was busy overseeing the invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Russian Parliament is expected to hold “an unscheduled” session to discuss what Putin said the night before. There will also be a huge, staged rally at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium, where Putin is expected to appear.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the situation in the Ukraine, competitiveness, the single market and the EU economy, energy issues, and migration.

·       In the UK, university staff will be out on strike nationwide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February), ZEW Current Conditions Index ( February)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

·       UK S&P/CIPS S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February),  Public Sector Net Borrowing (January), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)

·       Poland Retail Sales (January)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (February), Manufacturing Production  (December)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Indicators (December),  Balance of Trade (December), Unemployment (Q4) 

Wednesday, February 22, 2023: 

Global

·       Ash Wednesday, commencing the six weeks of Lent before Easter Sunday, is observed by many Christians globally.

·       The United Nations General Assembly will hold Eleventh Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly (Resumed: 17th Plenary meeting) to discuss the war in Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       is expected to deliver remarks.  

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia.     

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US First Lady Jill Biden begins a trip to Africa with visits to Namibia and Kenya.

·       The island nation of St. Lucia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Open Market Committee Minutes, Redbook (February 18th), MBA Mortgage Data (February 17th)

·       New York Fed President & CEO John Williams participates in a fireside chat on “Taming Inflation” at the Credibility of Government Policies Conference at Colombia University in New York.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (January)

·       Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Leading Indicators (January), Balance of Trade (January)

·       Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and South Korea will conduct a joint nuclear tabletop exercise in Washington, DC.

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visits Indonesia for talks with Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi in Jakarta.

·       Sri Lanka holds local elections through February 24th.

·       South Korea announces its 2022 birth data. The government has been encouraging young couples to have children by offering the equivalent of $540 per month to a family with a child less than one-year-old. The government has announced that amount will be raised by another $100 next year. The program is in response to South Korea’s fertility rate dropping to 0.81 in 2021 from 0.84 in 2020. South Korea’s fertility rate is the lowest among 38 OECD members.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Tamura Naoki will give a speech to local leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, M3 Money Supply (February 10th)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP (Q4), Hong Kong Budget is presented.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (January), Construction Work (Q4), Wage Price Index (Q4)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan to visit Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting to be held in Finland.

·       Germany CPI (January), inflation Rate (January), Ifo Business Climate/Expectations (February),

·       France Business Confidence & Business Climate indicator (February)

·       Italy CPI (January(,  Inflation (January), Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Economic Index (February)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Russia PPI (January), Industrial Production (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia celebrates "Founding Day," a new national holiday to mark the country's secular history as part of wider social reforms. 

·       Lebanon is expected to see food prices marked in dollars instead of lira due to hyperinflation raging across the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (February), Capacity Utilization (February)

·       Egypt Unemployment (Q4)

·       Israel Exports/Imports/balance of Trade (January), Composite Economic Index (January)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria observes the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, marking the anniversary of protests in 2019 which led to ousting of then-President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget 2023 to be presented. But while Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is doing this, Eight South African labor groups affiliated with the Congress of South African Trade Unions will issue a strike notice over an ongoing wage dispute.

·       Namibia Budget 2023 Presented

·       Nigeria GDP (Q4)

·       Ghana PPI (January) 

Thursday, February 23, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the United Nations and the European Union. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a delegation of Democratic Senators will visit Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Schumer is expected to voice his concerns over the pending judicial overhaul plan.

·       Argentinian banking employees are expected to go on strike over pay. Banks will be closed.

·       Guyana celebrates Republic Day, marking the day the country became a Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daily will participate in a virtual fireside chat on the topic “A Federal Reserve President Gets Real: Lessons on Leadership and the Economy” hosted by Handshake.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Boston and former Kansas City Fed President Ester George will speak on the Fed’s role in the banking industry at the Banking Outlook Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       US GDP (Q4), Initial Jobless Claims (February 18th), PCE Prices (Q4), Retail Consumer Spending (Q4,  Chicago Fed National Survey Activity Survey Index (January), Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (February), Economic Activity (December)

·       Peru GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets through tomorrow. They are expected to deliberate on a work report as well as finalize election procedures for a new committee.

·       Brunei celebrates National Day, also known as “Hari Nasional,” marking the day Brunei seceded from the United Kingdom.

·       Japan celebrates the Emperor’s Birthday today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Decision,  PPI (January)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

·       Singapore CPI (January), Inflation (January), Current Account (Q4)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index (Q4)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditures (Q4), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q4), Private Capital Expenditures (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       President von der Leyen will be in Palermo, Italy, to deliver a keynote speech at the Opening Ceremony of the Academic Year of the Università degli Studi di Palermo. She will then meet with President of the Republic of Italy, Sergio Mattarella.

·       Russia celebrates “Defender of the Fatherland Day.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, Bank of England’s Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Resolution Foundation entitled “The result of rising rates; Expectations, lags, and the result of rising rates.”

·       Eurozone Inflation (January), CPI (January)

·       UK CI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Norway Loan Growth (January)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (December)

·       Poland Employment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing/Lending (February)

·       Kuwait Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

·       Zambia Trade Balance (January)

·       Botswana Interest Rate Decision

·       Gambia Interest Rate Decision

·       Zimbabwe's creditors will discuss clearing more than $6 billion in arrears of its foreign debt. 

Friday, February 24, 2023:

Global

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

·       The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs will meet in Bengaluru, India. This is in advance of the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in India on September 9-10. The themes of the meeting, which is broken into two sessions,  are “International Financial Architecture, Sustainable Finance and Infrastructure,” and “Financial Sector and Financial Inclusion.” 

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of peace and security in Ukraine. This will include a vote condemning Russia for invading Ukraine – which Russia and possibly China will veto. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       The G7 Leaders will hold a virtual meeting in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may take part, where the United States and others are expected to announce additional sanctions on Russia. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governors Philip N. Jefferson and Christopher Waller, along with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, will speak at the 2023 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, in New York.

·       US PCE Price Index (January),  Building Permits Index (January), Personal Income (January), New Home Sales (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January), Wholesale Prices (January), Budget Balance (December)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February), IPCA mid-month CPI (February), Current Account (January), FDI (January)

·       Mexico GDP (Q4), Economic Activity (December), Current Account (Q4)

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s new Bank of Japan Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda speaks at his confirmation hearing before the Japanese Diet. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation (January)

·       India FX Reserves (February 17), Bank Loan Growth /Deposit Growth (February)

·       Taiwan GDP (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Malaysia National Budget presented, Inflation figures (January), Leading Index (December), Coincident Index (December)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to adopt its 10th sanctions package against Russia, including restrictions on dual-use technologies.

·       Estonia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1918 the Republic of Estonia was first formed. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Also joining the meet will be NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Tallinn, Estonia, to mark the anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GDP (Q4), GfK Consumer Confidence (March)

·       France GDP (Q4), Consumer Confidence (February),

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (February), Car Production (January)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

·       Hungary Unemployment (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, in India for the G20 Financial Ministers meeting,  will convene a roundtable with U.S. and Indian executives in the tech sector to discuss deepening U.S.-Indian economic ties as well as advancing shared goals like bolstering digital public infrastructure.

·       Suriname observes the Day of Liberation and Innovation, marking the day in 1980 the corrupt government of was overthrown by 15 Sergeants in Suriname’s military.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2023 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Finance and Central Bank Deputies meeting is held in Palm Springs, California.

·       The Philippines observes People Power Revolution Day, marking the day in 1986 public demonstrations took place for three days. The protests came as a result of the assassination of Senator Benigno Aquino and led to then-President Ferdinand Marcos was

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi through February 26th.

·       Georgia observes Soviet Occupation Day, commemorating when the Soviet Red Army invaded in 1921. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait celebrates National Day, commemorating the day Sheikh Abdullah Al-Salim Al-Sabah became ruler of Kuwait in 1950.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria holds presidential, Senate, and House of Representatives elections. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, with more than 220 million citizens. The presidential election is seen as too hard to predict at this point, with three candidates who are polling very closely.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party to hold party convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Manchester United plays Newcastle United in the Carabou Cup Final at Wembley Stadium, London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait observes Liberation Day, remembering the day the country was liberated by Iraqi occupation in 1991 as a result of Operation Desert Storm.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 17 - 19, 2023

We thought you might find the following useful reading. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great weekend.

·       “Asia’s Interest in Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency – and Challenges to Cross-border Use” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

As U.S. policymakers continue to examine the implications of China’s digital yuan in 2023, they should also take note of accelerating wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and development efforts across Asia. “Wholesale CBDC” refers to a digitized central bank liability designed for sizable (generally interbank) transactions and for which access is limited to certain financial institutions. India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and other Asian nations have launched Wholesale CBDC  pilot projects.

·       “Geo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism” International Monetary Fund Staff Discussion Notes

Many in the markets continue to ask if we seeing a larger disintegration of global free trade as we have known it versus a global “re-wiring and re-calibration.”  The IMF explored this issue and possible ramifications.  It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF)  and the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, the Note suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism.

Focus on Russia - 

·       “What Russia Got Wrong. Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures in Ukraine?”  by Dara Massicot, Senior Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation, Foreign Affairs

As the war in Ukraine drags on into its second year, the author argues that analysts must not focus only on Russia’s failures. The Russian armed forces are not wholly incompetent or incapable of learning. Indeed, there is strong evidence the Russian military has learned from its mistakes and made big adjustments. While they still are not been able to break Ukraine’s will to fight or impede the West’s materiel and intelligence support, Russia’s military could continue to adjust its strategy, “eventually snatching a diminished variant of victory from the jaws of defeat.”

·       “Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus”  Washington Post

When Russian troops began pouring over the Ukraine border in February 2021, Russian civilians – many of them young, well-educated, and seen as the future of Russia, begin packing their bags and fleeing, worried about shut borders and martial law.  As many as one million Russians have fled in the last year including, according to the Russian government, more than ten percent of the country’s IT workers. Before the war, Russia’s population was in a spiral as one of the fastest declining in the world.

Charts of the Week

Russia’s Massive Population Exodus – Where Are They Going?: As the Washington Post piece above details, more than one million Russians have fled the country since the invasion of Ukraine.  While data shows, they have dispersed all around the world – with sizeable numbers going to the the UAE, Israel, and Argentina (which is experiencing a population boom of Russian “birth tourism” in a bid to gain joint-citizenship).  But the bulk of the émigrés have gone to these countries below:

The Post-COVID Return to Office Trend is Reversing:  As the risks of COVID began to recede, we all saw and experienced corporations pushing to get workers back into their offices.  As the chart below shows, data from LinkedIn shows that after the return-to-work trend rose last year, it has now begun to reverse.  This could be because more returning workers now want greater flexibility with their schedules and prefer to work from home more.

There are a variety of other factors possibly contributing to this, including weather, the cost of gasoline, and perhaps most importantly, after giving the office a try, workers were happier and likely more productive working from home.  As Axios reports, “It’s a sign that the balance between remote and in-person work will continue to oscillate with the times.”  In short, what many of us thought is true: Work will never be the same after COVID.

Recommended Book of the Week

“The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership through Soft Power”

by Daniel F. Runde

Full disclosure up front:  Dan Runde is an old and dear friend of mine. That said, writing a review of a friend's book is delicate stuff. It's like eating that friend’s cooking – it's either delicious, and you indulge, or it's terrible, and your mind races to think up fake allergies and/or a strange dietary restrictions you're on to get out of eating any more of their culinary disaster.

Thankfully, Dan made all this easy by masterfully cooking up a powerful, deeply thoughtful, and quite engaging proposal for America's role on the world stage. I happily indulged.

Of late, I've been frustrated by the flood of books on the market arguing about the loss of US power, how great power politics is once again upon us with enormous new security and economic risks, how globalization is over, how the world is falling apart, on and on – most without much in terms of thoughtful policy suggestions on how to deal with all these overwhelming challenges.   

That is what makes Dan's book so refreshing – he does not shy away from making suggestions. Instead, he gives a full-throated and authentic assessment of those challenges and very practical recommendations.  Dan has extensive experience contributing to all this, having worked at the World Bank, the US Agency for International Development, and, currently, as William Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Dan has achieved a lot in this slim little book – 219 pages excluding extensive footnotes and the index – and he has made a real contribution to the challenging debates, and decision-making needed now and in the future. I highly recommend it.

The Global Week Ahead

February 12-19, 2023

It is going to be a busy week around the world this week. Rescue efforts continue in Turkey following the horrific earthquake last week. Expect global relief efforts to ramp up assistance to help the tens of thousands left homeless in the middle of winter.

Meanwhile, NATO defense chiefs meet this week to discuss how to further assist Ukraine in defending itself against Russia just as Moscow gets closer to ordering what is expected to be a massive counter-attack seeking to regain territory liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent months. This comes in advance of the Munich Security Conference, which will almost certainly focus heavily on Russia, China, and the rising security risks worldwide.

Brussels will be busy as the Eurogroup gathers to discuss the financial and political implications of the Ukraine War as well as the next steps in energy policy. Elsewhere, South Africa will host naval exercises with Russia and China in defiance of harsh criticism from many nations for moving more in alignment with the two countries. The exercises come on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The global economic calendar is full this week, too. Markets are watching numerous emerging market inflation reports, US CPI and US retail sales, and US industrial production numbers. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in the Eurogroup meetings and will likely give further insight into the state of the EU economy.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 12, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, thousands of students are expected to march in Caracas demanding electoral authorities open voting registration.

·       The Superbowl will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan continues to host Naval maritime exercises involving more than 50 countries through February 14th.  The exercise – “Joint Operation Aman” – involves air, naval, and special forces of the countries involved off the coast of Karachi.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Berlin, Germany, holds a re-vote of the municipal elections held on September 26, 2022, following a court order forcing a re-vote. The September elections were ruled as chaotic by the court, which said it was a “unique event in postwar German election history.”  The chaos came as the city held its annual marathon, which partially paralyzed the city.  Voters had to wait for hours to ca

·       Spain is bracing for a large protest march in Madrid by primary healthcare workers seeking better pay.

·       Cyprus holds presidential runoff elections.

·       Italy will hold regional elections in Lazio and Lombardia through February 13th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, February 13, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on children and armed conflict prevention.

·       UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres holds an informal meeting of the UN plenary to hear a briefing by the Secretary-General on the report “Our Common Agenda.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will hold meetings with South Korean and Japanese counterparts to discuss Korean Peninsula security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers in Orlando, Florida, on “Independence, Predictability, and Tailoring in Banking Supervision and Regulation.”

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will visit Nepal and meet his counterpart to review bilateral relations. Simultaneously, Nepal’s Defense Minister Hari Prasad Upreti, will begin a four-day visit to India to discuss mutual defense issues.

·       The Aero India 2023 air show begins in Bengaluru, India

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss recent developments in energy markets and their impact on the fiscal policy response in the euro area, Euro area labor markets, macroeconomic and financial developments, and policy coordination in the euro area.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with the leader of the country's Communist Party, starting a week of daily meetings with parliamentary faction leaders until Feb. 16th.

·       German Foreign Minister Baerbock will meet with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto in Helsinki to discuss Finland’s joining NATO and overall mutual security issues.

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visits Cambodia.

·       Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun is expected to testify at his trial in Munich, Germany, where he is facing fraud charges.

·       In the UK, civil servants at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency will strike over pay.

·       In the UK, museum workers begin a week of strikes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participate in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

·       Switzerland Inflation (January), CPI (January)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (December), Construction Output (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel's Knesset will begin its series of votes on planned reforms to the country's judiciary, specifically, how the Israeli Supreme Court is appointed. The reform effort has sparked protests, and recent polls suggest a large bloc of voters either oppose the reforms or want to see the process of reform slowed down.

·       Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein wraps up a visit to Washington DC by speaking at the Wilson Center in  Washington, DC.

·       The United Arab Emirates will host the World Government Summit in Dubai through Feb. 15th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (December), Retail Sales (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       US-led military exercises named “Justified Accord,” which involve more than 20 countries, are held in Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Kenya Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Ghana Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Angola Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Uganda Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Zambia Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Mozambique Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Rwanda Bloomberg Economic Survey

·       Botswana Bloomberg Economic Survey

Tuesday, February 14, 2023:

Global

·       OPEC Monthly Meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “Threats to international peace and security: Sea-level rise: implications for international peace and security.” 

·       World Bank President David Malpass and Anabel González, Deputy Director-General of the World Trade Organization, will speak at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event entitled “Driving Global Trade for Development” in Washington, DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia is bracing for widespread protests opposing President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda.

·       Paraguayan President Mario Abdo Benitez will begin a four-day trip to Taiwan. Paraguay is one of the few remaining countries worldwide that continues to recognize Taiwan over China’s strong objections.

·       Guyana hosts the International Energy Conference and Expo in Georgetown.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve President & CEO John Williams will speak at the New York Bankers Association Regional Meeting in New York City.

·       US Inflation Figures (January), CPI (January), Redbook (Feb. 11),  NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (December)

·       Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

·       Argentina Inflation (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Singapore’s government will formally deliver its budget statement for the 2023 fiscal year. With the rising cost of living and inflation, the budget is expected to include various provisions helping to blunt the impact on households.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan’s government will formally nominate Kazuo Ueda for the role of Governor of the Bank of Japan.

·       Japan GDP (Q4), Capacity Utilization (December), Industrial Production (December)

·       India Passenger Vehicle Sales (January), WPI Inflation (January), WPI Food (January), WPI Fuel (January), WPI Manufacturing (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February), NAB Business Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (January), Business Inflation Expectations (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an exchange of views on the economic and financial impact of the war in Ukraine.

·       NATO defense ministers will meet in the "Ramstein format" of Ukraine's defense donors in Brussels, Belgium. 

·       The European Parliament debates major legislation on the EU standards for emissions for cars and vans.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Belgium for a Belgian-German Energy Summit with Belgium Prime Minister Alexander de Croo Zeebrugge, Belgium. They will hold a joint press conference afterward.

·       In the UK, university workers begin a three-day strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels.

·       Eurozone GDP (Q4), Employment Change (Q4)

·       UK Unemployment (December), Claimant Count Change (January), Average Earnings including Bonus (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Poland GDP (Q4)

·       Hungary GDP, (Q4)Budget Balance (January)

·       Norway GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey was scheduled to host a natural gas summit but has postponed it due to the earthquake until March 22nd. The summit will bring together gas buyers and sellers from all over the Middle East, Mediterranean, Caspian, and Middle Asia, along with consumer countries from Europe. Russian President Putin had proposed setting up a gas hub in Turkey following the damage done by the explosions that damaged Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea. But that has been delayed as Western officials pressed the Turkish government not to proceed as it was seen as a way of masking additional Russian gas sales to evade sanctions.

·       Lebanon observes Rafik Hariri Memorial Day – a national holiday -  remembering when in 2005, Prime Minister Hariri was assassinated by a car bomb planted by Hezbollah.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Turkey Auto Sales (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, February 15, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       In Geneva, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) will launch jointly the Ukraine Regional Refugee Response Plan and Ukraine Humanitarian Response Plan 2023.

·       The OECD holds the Global Forum on Responsible Business Conduct in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is expected to formally announce her candidacy for the US Presidency.

·       The Congressional Budget Office will hold a briefing on the release of reports titled “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033” and “Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023.”

·       Colombia is expected to be hit with more major protests as opposition parties state a general strike against President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda.

·       The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting to consider new rules shortening the standard settlement time for securities trades from two days (T+2) to one day (T+1).  

·       Former Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner is due to be sentenced in a Brooklyn federal court, where he pleaded guilty to corruption charges for his role in helping loot billions of dollars from Malaysia’s 1MDB development fund.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cooks speaks at the Sadie Collective Research Reception at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

·       US Retail Sales Figures (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Capacity Utilization (January), Business Inventories (December), NAHB Housing Market Index (February),  NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February), MBA Mortgage Figures (February 10th), Overall Net Capital Flows (December), Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)

·       Canada Housing Starts (January), Manufacturing Sales (December), Wholesale Sales (December)

·       Colombia GDP (Q4), ISE Economic Activity (December)

·       Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP (December), Employment Figures (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will launch its next-generation rocket, the H3, from Tanegasahima Space Center. It is the biggest upgrade in Japan’s rocket program in 20 years and will replace the Russian Soyuz rocket that was blocked from being purchased due to sanctions resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (December)

·       South Korea Export Prices (January), Import Prices (January), Unemployment (January)

·       Australia Royal Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting

·       Indonesia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI/Services NZ PSI (January), Visitor Arrivals (December)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (January), Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Finance Minister Lindner meets with Finland’s Finance Minister Saarikko in Helsinki.

·       The International Summit for Responsible AI in the Military Domain discussing the opportunities and ethical challenges of using AI in war commences in the Hague, Netherlands.

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meets with Malaysian King Abdullah Shah and Prime Minister Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur.

·       Serbia observes Sovereignty Day (also known as Statehood Day), commemorating the first Serbian Uprising in 1804 and the first Serbian Constitution of 1835.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report 2021 before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. 

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (December), Balance of Trade (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       UK Inflation Figures (January), PPI (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Spain Inflation Figures (January), CPI (January)

·       Poland Inflation Figures (January), Industrial Production (December)

·       Norway Consumer Confidence (Q1), Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (January)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (January)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January), Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Oman Total Credit (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Qatar Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Annual Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with all the member ambassadors meeting today, other ministers tomorrow, and national leaders Friday.

·       The Nigerian Supreme Court will resume hearing a case against the government's ongoing currency swap. Nigeria Central Bank has been attempting to replace the naira (the currency), but it has caused chaos as consumers and businesses have struggled to replace the currency with new high-denominated, redesigned bills.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Figures (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Nigeria Inflation Figures (January)

·       Mozambique GDP (Q4)

·       Nigeria Inflation (January)

·       Ghana Inflation (January)

·       Namibia Inflation (January)

·       Botswana Inflation (January)

·       Zambia Central Bank Interest Rate

·       Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate

Thursday, February 16, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives a speech to the Financial Executives International (Northeast Ohio Chapter) at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Cleveland, Ohio.

·       St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the US economic outlook at the Jackson, Tennessee Chamber of Commerce.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims (February 11th), Building Permits (January), PPI (January), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February), PPI (January), Housing Starts (January), Housing Starts (January), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February), Philly Fed Employment (February) Philly Fed New Orders (February)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Tripura state is expected to hold elections. However, concerns are rising that political violence could break out as the ruling BJP Party seeks to build on its sizeable lead in what was once a leftist stronghold. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been campaigning for the local BJP candidates, holding rallies around the state.

·       Hong Kong will release new population estimates for 2022. More than 113,200 people left Hong Kong in the first half of 2022, and even more, are predicted to have left in the second half as COVID restrictions were lifted.

·       Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi will visit Pakistan to explore avenues for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

·       Japan and the US will conduct joint military exercises through March 12th on and around the Kikai Island and the US Marine Corps Camp Hansen on Okinawa – both of which are part of the Nansei Island chain, which stretches to Taiwan and separates the East China Sea where Chinese maritime activities have increased in recent years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (January), FDI (January)

·       Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), Machinery Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Employment Rate (January)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Employment Figures (January)

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (February), Car Sales (January), Loan Growth (January),

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland’s President Duda meets with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg in Brussels.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and then travels to Munich, Germany, to participate in the Munich Security Forum the February 18th.

·       Lithuania celebrates Restoration of the State Day. This is one of two Independence Days celebrated in Lithuania – this one celebrates the restoration of freedom and sovereignty from the Soviet Union in 1990 after being taken over at the end of World War II.

·       In Northern Ireland, health and ambulance staff begin two days of strikes over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta Event:  participates in a discussion on "Monetary policy after the energy shock" organized by the Centre for European Reform, the Delegation of the European Union to the United Kingdom, and the European Central Bank Representation in London. 

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Dow Lecture organized by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIES) in London.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an exchange of views with students Colegio Mayor CEU San Pablo, Madrid, Spain.

·       Italy Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (December)

·       Norway Norges Bank Governor’s Annual Address

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel GDP (Q4)

Turkey FX Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (December)

·       Rwanda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Friday, February 17, 2023:

Global

·       The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Director of the US Congressional Budget, Phillip Swagel, will speak at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C., on “Beyond the Debt Limit: A Discussion of the Fiscal Health of the U.S.”

·       Carnival begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve monetary policy report

·       US Import Prices/Export Prices (January), CB Leading Index (January)

·       Canada PPI (January), Raw Materials (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Andrew Hsia, the vice chair of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang and a delegation of party members conclude a nine-day trip to China. Hsia said the trip was “apolitical” and aimed at looking into the welfare of native Taiwanese living and working in China. He met with head of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Sung Tao, on the trip. He also sought to resolve a number of import suspensions put in place by China in 2021, which significantly impacted Taiwanese fishermen and small businessmen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe testifies before the Australian Parliament.

·       India FX Reserves (February 10th)

·       Singapore Export Figures (January), Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Border Force staff begin a three-day strike over pay. Also, West Midlands ambulance service staff go on strike over pay.

·       Kosovo celebrates 15 years of independence from Serbia

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Current Account (December), New Car Registrations (January)

·       UK Retail Sales (January)

·       France Inflation Figures (January)

·       Italy Current Account (December)

·       Poland Employment Figures (January), PPI (January), Corporate Sector Wages (January)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4)

·       Russia Full Year GDP (2022)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa hosts Russia and China’s Navies for military exercises.   The maritime event will take place off the coast of Durban. South Africa and go through February 27th (and therefore overlap with the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022). South Africa,  which of late has been suffering massive power shortages, is looking to build their relations with both Russia and China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 18, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Leaders Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

·       Gambia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 19, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to hold convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s Xinjiang Regional Governor Erkin Tuniyaz is scheduled to travel to Brussels and possibly London. Tuniyaz, who has been sanctioned by the US Government for helping oversee massive repression and genocidal actions against the Xinjiang’s Uyghur minority, has not been invited by either the EU or the UK government. However, the respective Chinese Embassies have invited officials from both Brussels and London to meet with Tuniyaz. Human rights activists and many government officials are outraged at the move by the Chinese government, and protests are likely in both cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions. And if you or a colleague wish to get these directly, send us an email, and we will add you to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 10 - 12, 2023

We thought you might find the following useful reading. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great weekend.

·       “How well is the G7 oil price cap working?” Institute of International FinanceThe G7 oil price cap began on December 5th. As this paper from the IIF points out, there were real shocks on and around December 5th as Russia was forced to sell their oil further afield in more concealed ways. But since then, there remain many variables – Russian shipping costs, enforced compliance on various nations facilitating Russian oil sales, etc. – which make it hard to figure out just how impactful the cap is working. And now, with Russia announcing its intention to cut oil production by 5 percent this past week, the cap may face a more challenging time being effective.

·       “A World Divided: Russia, China and the West” Bennett Institute for Public Policy, Cambridge University

Canvassing 137 countries, Cambridge researchers found Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly bolstered a sense of greater allegiance to both the US and NATO. Of note, positive attitudes toward Russia in many countries that previously had positive views have plummeted:

-      Greece has gone from 69 percent positive attitudes toward Russia to 30 percent.

-      Hungary has gone from 45 percent to 25 percent favorable.

-      Italy has gone from 38 percent to 14 percent favorable. 

·       “International Security and Estonia 2023” Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service

Estonia, which borders Russia and is one of the most threatened nations by Russia’s aggressive behavior, published its annual foreign intelligence assessment and risk of a Russian attack. Two interesting conclusions: 1) They do not see must the Putin regime falling anytime soon and, if anything, it becoming a more potent and more dangerous dictatorship, and; 2) Russian intelligence has ramped up its efforts to use the Orthodox Church as a cover for intelligence operations inside Russia and externally. 

Charts of the Week

Two very different charts stood out for us this week:

1.     The Explosive Growth of Avian Flu Globally

Following up on our Chart of the Week last week detailing the massive spike of illegal egg smuggling across the US-Mexico border, this chart illustrates how brutal Avian Flu has been on the poultry industry globally. According to the World Organization for Animal Health, last season, more than 31 million birds either died from the Flu or were culled because of exposure. This season (which began last October), the number of birds killed or culled is more than 100 million and growing as the Flu spreads globally. The risk of Avian Flu is not just to birds, with recent confirmed cases of it appearing in farm mammals – which has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to worry it will jump to humans at some point.

2.     Babysitting Fees in the US have Spiked in the Last Two Years

Getting a babysitter has become much more expensive in the last two years.  National average rates rose 21 percent over the previous two years (11 percent in 2021 and another 9.7 percent in 2022.).  San Francisco wins the prize for the most expensive city nationally.  And interestingly, babysitting rates in New York went down over the last year (courtesy Axios and the UrbanSitter)

Newest Additions to the Fulcrum Macro Team…

I wanted to take a moment and congratulate our beautiful German Sheppard, Quinn, for her spectacular birth of six strong, adorable puppies this week. Hearing their little squeaks and sleepy sighs is the greatest mental therapy a person can hope for! Three are set to head off to their “forever homes” - loving, very excited families — in three or four months. If you are looking for a pup, all pure-bred German Sheppards, let me know, or contact my wife, Maura, via her website: www.opendoorfarm.farm

Quinn with her little brood of hungry puppies!

I guess this is what they mean when someone says “dog pile!” Puppy snuggle-time.

The Global Week Ahead

February 5 - 12, 2023

China and its spy balloons are going to dominate the geopolitical agenda this week, particularly in Washington.  The US Congress was already scheduled to discuss and debate various hot-button China-focused issues this week, including a growing push to ban TikTok in the US.  The coming week will undoubtedly see a heavy focus on China’s spy balloon shot down by the US Air Force on Saturday and the implications for the future of US-China relations and global markets.  All this comes as President Biden gives his second State of the Union in front of the US Congress Tuesday.

Also this week, the European Union will likely come to an agreement on a unified response to the green energy incentives granted by Congress last year via the Inflation Reduction Act.  This will come after the German Economic Minister and French Finance Minister travel to Washington for extraordinary meetings to defuse tensions over the issue.

On the global financial and economic front, following rate hikes by the US Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, markets will be listening closely as the heads of all three central banks participate in high-profile question-and-answer events.  Markets will also be watching unemployment figures later this week in the US. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 5, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador will hold local elections and vote on eight constitutional reforms being championed by President Guillermo Lasso.  These include judicial and political reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds the first G20 energy transition working group in New Delhi.

·       China will officially reopen its border to international travelers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU ban on Russian oil product imports enters into force alongside the G7 price cap which is expected to be set at $100 per barrel.

·       San Marino celebrates Liberation Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin to hold legislative elections.

·       Burundi celebrates Unity Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report

Monday, February 6, 2023:  

Global

·       the UN General Assembly will hold its 58th plenary meeting.  Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver remarks on his priorities for 2023. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on Ukraine. The Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, is expected to brief Council members on the situation in the country.  

·       The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) will launch the antimicrobial report (AMR), ‘Bracing for Superbugs: strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to antimicrobial resistance’ at the sixth meeting of the Global Leaders Group on Antimicrobial Resistance. The Global Leaders Group, which aims to accelerate political momentum, leadership, and action on AMR, will take place online and in-person 7-8 February in Barbados.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Ivey PMI (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January), New Car Registrations (January)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cross-border travel between China and Hong fully resumes as COVID restrictions are pulled down.

·       47 Hong Kong democracy activists will go on trial after two years of delays. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Indonesia Full Year GDP (2022)

·       Thailand Inflation (January), CPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the state of play of EU-UK relations and Sweden’s priorities for its presidency of the EU.

·       In Oslo, Norway, Sweden’s and Finland’s defense ministers (Pål Jonson and Mikko Savola, respectively), will meet with the Deputy Secretary-General, Mircea Geonanā, of NATO as part of a  two-day security conference in Oslo dedicated to the war in Ukraine

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with ECB President Christine Lagarde, Werner Hoyer, President of the European Investment Bank, European Council President Charles Michel, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohue  in Brussels.

·       In the UK, nurses and ambulance workers – more than 10,000 workers – will go on the largest one-day strike in the UK history.  The nurses will also be on strike Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a virtual Q&A discussion economic issues.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (January), Factory Orders (December)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

·       UK New Car Sales (January), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (January)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will begin requiring oil tankers to have Protection and Indemnity Insurance if they want to cross the Turkish straits.  This is likely to impact oil prices as it will hit Russian and Ukraine shipments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January) 

Tuesday, February 7, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

·        International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi delivers speech at Chatham House, London entitled “The New Nuclear Order.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will deliver his State of the Union Address before Congress.  He will lay out his agenda for 2023 and likely touch on themes we will hear in his re-election campaign.  Biden is also expected to call for greater regulation of technology, including stricter antitrust enforcement.

·       Grenada celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of the island country gaining independence from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will be interviewed by Carlyle Group Co-Executive Chairman David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington, DC.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech at the Mission Investors Exchange Banking on Financial Inclusion: A Hope Economic Mobility Forum” at Jackson State University in Jackson, Mississippi.

·       US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Redbook (February 4), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (February), Consumer Credit Change (December)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the CFA Québec.

·       Canada Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (January), Auto Production (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Newly installed New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins meets with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra.  They are expected to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (December), Overtime Pay (December), FX Reserves (January), Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Australia Central Bank Rate Decision, Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Ai Group Industry Index (January)

·       Philippines Inflation (January), Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (January)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Economic Minister Robert Habeck and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire will be in Washington, DC for meetings with the Biden Administration to discuss US green subsidies that were made law in the Inflation Reduction Act.  These meetings takes place two days before a Special European Summit to discuss how to retaliate against the incentives.

·       EU Competitiveness Ministers will hold an informal meeting through February 8th in Brussels.

·       In France, SNCF workers (train workers) will begin a two-day strike to protest against the government’s efforts to reform the pension system.

·       The EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will meet. The meeting, the first since Moldova was granted EU candidate country status, in Brussels will be co-chaired by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Mr. Josep Borrell, and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Ms. Natalia Gavriliţa. The Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Mr. Olivér Várhelyi will represent the European Commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a moderated webinar "Geldpolitik in Zeiten von Pandemie und Krieg" (Monetary policy in times of pandemic and war) hosted by Finanzwende e.V. 

·       German Industrial Production (December)

·       France Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), FX Reserves (January)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (January), BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland FX Reserves (January)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (January)

·       Russia FX Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (January)

·       Israel Business Confidence (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (January)

Wednesday, February 8, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal hosts their CFO Network Summit in New York.  New York Fed President John Williams will give remarks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jared Bernstein, a member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors and rumored to be close to being named the CEA’s Chair, will discuss the US economy at the Brookings Institution and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Washington, DC.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will speak at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, DC.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the Arkansas State University Agribusiness Conference in Jonesboro, Arkansas.

·       US Wholesale Inventories (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February 3), WASDE Report

·       Chile Inflation (January)

·       Panama Balance of Trade (October & November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. begins an “official working visit” to Japan.  Marcos is seeking both stronger economic and security relations with Tokyo.

·       North Korea commemorates the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army. It is expected a large military parade will be held in Pyongyang with a possible speech from North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un who will likely talk about North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (January)

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Current Account (December), Bank Lending (January), Eco Watchers Survey (January)

·       India Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Australia Central Bank Chart Pack Released

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Malaysia Construction Output (Q4), Retail Sales (December)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Supreme Court to rule on the legality of the Northern Ireland protocol arrangements.

·       The Church of England will hold a general synod to decide whether blessings for gay marriages or civil partnerships should be permitted in England’s churches.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia GDP (December), Vehicle Sales (January), Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December), Real Wage Growth (November), Business Confidence (January), Corporate Profits (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December & January)

Thursday, February 9, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Sudan sanctions. Also, this afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former FBI agent Charles McGonigal, who has been charged with working for sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, is expected to appear in federal court in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Initial Jobless Claims (February 4)

·       Brazil Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

·       Paraguay Inflation (January)

·       Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim makes his first official visit to Thailand.  The agenda is expected to cover economic cooperation and regional security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January 27)

·       Taiwan Wholesale Prices (January), Inflation (January),

·       Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (December)

·       Malaysia Unemployment (December)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January), Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will hold a special meeting through February 10th in Brussels.  The meeting will discuss the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, which is partly a response to the US’ green incentives passed into law in the Inflation Reduction Act.

·       In the UK, staff workers at universities across the country will go on strike for better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at Parliament’s Treasury committee session to discuss the Bank’s latest report.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos at the Foro Economia y Humanismo organized by Instituto Karol Wojtyla in Madrid.

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (January)

·       Ukraine Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation (January)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa President State of the Nation Address. Speaking to countries ongoing energy crisis is expected to be the main focus of his speech, and there is speculation Ramaphosa may declare a national state of disaster to fast-track government mitigation responses.  The energy regulator Nersa announced last month they will be hiking electricity prices by 19.65 percent starting in April as a result of the crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (December), Gold Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December)

Friday, February 10, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the US’s support for Brazil’s democracy following the recent attack on the Brazilian Congress.  Other issues will include climate change, food security, and regional security.

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Board will meet.  Chaired by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, the agenda includes the preliminary agenda includes discussing the Council’s priorities for 2023; the upcoming Treasury report on cloud services adoption in the financial sector; and the Council’s options for assessing and responding to financial stability risks, including nonbank financial company designations

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give opening remarks at the OCC’s Bank Merger Symposium in Washington, DC.

·       Fashion Week begins in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Waller will speak at the Global Interdependence Center’s conference “Digital Money, Decentralized Finance, and the Puzzle of Crypto” in La Jolla, California.  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will also speak.

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reports (February), Michigan Inflation Expectations Reports (February), Monthly Budget Statement (January)

·       Canada Employment Figures (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (February)

·       Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (January), PPI (January), New Yuan Loans (January), Outstanding Loan Growth (January), Total Social Financing (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Japan PPI (January)

·       India FX Reserves (February 3), Deposit Growth (January), Bank Lona Growth (January), Industrial Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Australia Central Bank Statement on Monetary Policy

·       Philippines FDI (November)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       Malaysia GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Ambulance workers are going out on strike, and BMA opens consultative strike ballot for NHS consultants.

·       Nice, France, begins the 150th Nice Carnival.  Multiple parades, parties, and exhibits are held through February 26th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a Twitter Q&A.

·       Germany Current Account (December), Inflation Rate (January)

·       UK GDP (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), Manufacturing Production (December), Goods Trade Balance (December), Industrial Production (December), Balance of Trade (December), Construction Orders (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Hungary Inflation (January)

·       Italy Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (December), Industrial Production (December), Participation Rate (December), Industrial Production (December)

·       Egypt Current Account (Q3), Inflation Rate (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria’s government has set today as a new deadline to turn in 200-, 500- and 1,000-Naira banknotes in currency swap.  The government was forced to extend the deadline after massive lines developed at banks and commercial activities ground to a halt nationally.

·       In Northern Mali, leadership of the al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group JNIM will reportedly hold meetings with armed groups in northern Mali over a non-aggression pact. UN Peacekeeping forces and the Malian junta have experienced worsening relations, and it is widely expected the UN will withdraw at some point in the near future. Additionally, there has been a break in French-Malian relations leading to the withdrawal of French forces, helping to fight off radical armed groups.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation (January)

Saturday, February 11, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chicago Auto Show begins in Chicago, Illinois.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Current Account (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal is bracing for a third day of demonstrations by teachers demanding higher wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran celebrates Islamic Revolution Day, marking the revolution of 1979, throwing the Shah out of power and instituting the Islamic Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 12, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Superbowl will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Berlin, Germany, holds a re-vote of the municipal elections held on September 26, 2022, following a court order forcing a re-vote.  The September elections were ruled as chaotic by the court, which said it was a “unique event in postwar German election history.”  The chaos came as the city held its annual marathon, which partially paralyzed the city.  Voters had to wait for hours to ca

·       Spain is bracing for a large protest march in Madrid by primary healthcare workers seeking better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions. And if you or a colleague wish to get these directly, send us an email, and we will add you to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 3-5, 2023

We thought you might find the following useful reading.  Let us know what you think and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list.  Have a great weekend.

·       “More Cite Government as Top US Problem; Inflation Ranks Second” Gallup

In Gallup’s latest poll, more Americans name the government as the nation’s problem. The government ranks as the top problem for both Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (24%) and Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (18%).

·       “Putin’s Oil Makes a Stop Off Spain en Route to China”  Bloomberg Opinion

Sanctions are making it riskier and pricier for the Kremlin’s crude to get to Asia, but the EU is still a transit hub. via the town of Ceuta – a tiny Spanish enclave that sticks out of Morocco into the Mediterranean Sea like a thumb. Ceuta is just in the right place: inside the Mediterranean Sea, it’s sheltered from the stormy winds and winter swell of the North Atlantic. 

Source: Bloomberg

·        “What are Large Banks Doing About Climate Change?” The US Federal Reserve Board International Finance Discussion Papers

This new paper by Federal Reserve staff looks at 30 of the biggest banks in the world and their commitments so far to finance green projects.  So far, they have collectively put in $1.2 trillion a year, which will bring them $33.6 trillion by 2050.  But, the paper argues, that will only be approximately 25 percent of what is needed to reach net zero emission goals.

Chart of the Week

Hey Buddy, Looking for Some Eggs?:  We have been hearing a lot lately about the soaring price of eggs, spiking more than 60 percent in recent months (happily, I live on a farm, and our chickens have been quite productive).  The reason for the price surge?  Avian flu outbreaks have decimated chickens across the US.  As a result, egg smuggling from Mexico is becoming a big business.  Bloomberg examined the situation and learned seizures of smuggled eggs have surged more than 300 percent, with many of the seizures being only a few 30 egg flats.  Here is their chart showing what the hottest new smuggling business in America looks like and where eggactly (sorry – couldn’t help myself) it is happening the most:

A Good Read… 

In the Nation’s Service: The Life and Times of George P. Shulz 

George Schultz was a remarkable American by any standard.  In his new, highly illuminating biography of Schulz, former New York Times reporter Philip Taubman reminds us of the extraordinary life Schulz lived and the critical role he played in transforming the country and the world.

Schulz’s resume was long and distinguished (an understatement if there ever was one).  The son of a New York Stock Exchange executive, Schulz was a Marine Corps officer in the Pacific theater during World War II.  When he returned home, he earned Ph.D. in industrial economics at MIT (studying under Robert Samuelson) and then taught at MIT.  He then stepped into public service in  1955 to serve at the Council of Economic Advisors under President Dwight Eisenhower.   

He then went on to become a professor and then dean of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago.  He returned to Washington in 1969 to become Secretary of Labor under President Richard Nixon, then Director of the newly created Office of Management and Budget, and then Secretary of Treasury. Leaving public service, he joined the Bechtel Group, where he became its President and a member of its board of directors.  He then returned to public service in 1982 when President Ronald Reagan asked him to serve as Secretary of State. 

What Taubman sheds considerable light on is Schulz’s considerable efforts – and success – at integrating public schools in the South.  Historians tend to focus on Schulz’s herculean efforts under Reagan to bring down the Iron Curtain and skip over Schulz’s championing of civil rights.  He also made considerable inroads with Big Labor, building a strong working relationship with the legendary AFL-CIO President George Meany.   

On a personal note, when I was a very young staffer in the Reagan White House, Schultz was seen as legendary even then within the Administration.  I would occasionally see him in the hallways, and, despite the tremendous sense of gravitas that naturally swirled around him as he headed into a National Security Council meeting or over to the Oval Office, he always had a smile and a hello for us juniors.  That was a really big deal for us.

This is a well-deserved and well-written biography and a great read for anyone with an interest in economics, foreign policy, civil rights, and the history of the last 70 years.  It is also a commentary on how the “best and the brightest” like Schulz are rarely seen in Washington anymore.  Hopefully, this book will inspire more men and women of Schulz’s caliber to serve.

The Global Week Ahead: January 29 - February 5, 2023

This will be a hectic and important week worldwide, politically and economically.  In particular, we are watching closely as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Israel, Egypt, and the West Bank in the wake of heightened violence between Israel and Palestinians and a reported Israeli drone strike Sunday on an Iranian military base in Iran.  He then travels to Beijing, where he is expected to warn China against aiding Russia via Chinese companies reportedly supporting the war effort. 

While Blinken is in the Middle East, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will be in Japan and South Korea to discuss regional security issues and tensions with China and North Korea.  Austin will then travel to the Philippines, where he is expected to discuss launching joint naval patrols in the West Philippine Sea with the Philippine Navy in response to increased Chinese Naval activity.  Austin will follow NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who will also visit Japan and South Korea for meetings with senior defense officials.

It is a big week for global markets as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England make interest rate decisions this week.  Additionally, a flood of economic data is being reported globally this week – including a revised IMF Global Economic Outlook – which markets will have to digest.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, January 29, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Israel, Egypt, and the West Bank.  The visit comes at a time of renewed tensions and violence between Israelis and Palestinians.  This past week, Israeli commandos killed seven gunmen and two civilians in the West Bank.  This is the first visit by Blinken to Israel since Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power after the November elections.   It is expected Blinken will seek to discuss with Netanyahu upholding the status quo around the Temple Mount as well as Iran, and the Ukrainian War. Blinken is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abass.  In Egypt, he will meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to discuss mutual support for the election in Libya and the formation of talks to form a civilian government in Sudan following a military coup in 2021.

·       US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visits the Philippines through January 30th to meet with his counterpart, Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez, Jr.  There have been discussions of the US and Philippines conducting joint naval patrols in the West Philippine Sea in response to heightened Chinese activity in the area. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg begins a four-day visit to South Korea and Japan.  He will meet with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Defense Minister Lee Jong-Sup. South Korea has been stepping up cooperation with NATO recently as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attended the NATO Summit this past June, the first South Korean leader to take part in a NATO Summit.   In Japan, he will meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other senior officials to discuss strengthening NATO cooperation with Japan.  Prime Minister Kishida recently announced Japan’s intention to increase defense spending to more than 2 percent of GDP, in line with NATO member countries that are required to give in support of NATO.

·       Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will visit Moscow for bilateral meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

·       UN General Assembly President Csaba Korosi will be in India for meetings with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar.  India is the current president of the G20, and Korosi, who was elected the UNGA President in September, will seek to discuss a variety of regional and global issues as well as sustainability-related issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam CPI (January), Industrial Output (January), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Development Minister Svenja Schulze will travel to Argentina, Chile, and Brazil. Scholz will commemorate the Argentine military dictatorship and participate in the German-Chilean economic forum and visit a Brazilian national park.. Schulze will hold meetings in Brazil on how to better protect the rainforest as well as discuss other critical environmental and climate protection issues.

·       Austria holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 30, 2023:  

Global

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). They are also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia. 

·       U.N. General Assembly President Csaba Korosi will visit China, where he will discuss the Assembly's Sustainable Development Goals, directly following his visit to India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup following Jong-sup’s meeting with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg.  Austin will meet at the Joint Security Area – the border with North Korea – the first time a US Defense Secretary has met with his South Korean counterpart there since 2017. It comes as North Korea continues to bolster its nuclear weapons program.  Additionally,  South Korea is increasingly becoming a larger supplier of weapons to NATO and recently delivered 10 K2 tanks and 24 self-propelled K9 howitzers to Poland as part of an almost $6 billion agreement with Hundai Rotem and Hanwha Defense Systems Corporation.

·       Both the US Senate and House of Representatives are in session this week.  Senate Republicans will finalize Republican committee assignments, allowing committees to move forward with hearings and other official business. 

·       Peru is bracing for a strike by farmers in the wake of deadly riots following the ousting and arrest after he tried to dissolve the Congress.

·       Former President Trump advisor Peter Navarro goes on trial for failing to comply with a subpoena from the House January 6th Committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January),

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Nominal Budget Balance (December)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (December)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India observes Martyrs’ Day, commemorating the death of Mahatma Gandhi, who was assassinated in 1948.

·       New Zealand observes Northland Anniversary Day, a public holiday commemorating the arrival of William Hobson, a British Royal Navy Officer and first Governor of New Zealand.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Sri Lanka Inflation (January)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meet. They will receive a presentation by the Swedish presidency on its work program for the semester, and exchange views on the current market situation, particularly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the need for a strategic approach for the EU’s agri-food sector in light of the war in Ukraine, as well as the impact of agricultural imports from Ukraine on EU markets.

·       In the UK, workers at the Drivers and Vehicle Standards Agency will go on strike over pay. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (January), Industrial Sentiment (January), Selling Price Expectations (January), Services Sentiment (January), Consumer Confidence (January), Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Spain Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December), Business Confidence (January)

·       Italy PPI (December)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey’s coalition of six opposition parties – known as “The Table of Six” – will meet to announce a common policy platform for their yet-to-be-named presidential candidate (who they are expected to name in February).  Elections are set for May 14th for both the Turkish presidency and the Turkish parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (December), M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Oman Budget Balance (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Africa, the trial of former President Jacob Zuma for corruption resumes in Johannesburg.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision 

Tuesday, January 31, 2023: 

Global

·       An updated IMF Economic Outlook will be released.  The previous Outlook update in October 2022 downgraded GDP growth expectations to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss a possible rate increase.

·       US Employment Cost (Q4), Redbook (January), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November), House Price Index (November), Chicago PMI (January), CB Consumer Confidence (January), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (January),

·       Canada GDP (November)

·       Mexico GDP (Q4)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Cement Production (December), Unemployment (December), Exports (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian government will present its final full-year 2023 budget.  This comes in advance of the 2024 elections, which makes this budget proposal a tough balancing act between populist measures and fiscal cut-backs for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

·       An IMF team will visit Pakistan through February 9th to discuss conditions of a financial assistance package.

·       Nauru celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day the Micronesia island nation became independent in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January), NBS General PMI (January), Industrial Profits (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December), Infrastructure Output (December)

·       South Korea Industrial Policy (December), Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Confidence (January), Housing Starts (December), Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia Retail Sales (December), Housing Credit (December), Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (December), Export Orders (December),

·       Thailand Coincident Index (December), Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December), Unemployment Rate (Q4), Business Confidence (Q4)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Thailand Private Investment (December), Private Consumption (December), Current Account (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France is bracing for nationwide protests led by the main trade unions in opposition to the ongoing parliamentary efforts led by President Emmanuel Macron to reform the pension system.  The reform would, among other things, raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 or face monthly payouts being curtailed, as well as streamline the 42 different state-supported pension systems.  Overall, the entire French pension system costs the government just under 14 percent of GDP. The strikes have become more intense in recent weeks.  Last week, energy workers who are part of the CGT union cut electricity to President Macron’s supporters and wealthy neighborhoods while giving discounted power and gas to poorer customers. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone GDP (Q4)

·       France GDP (Q4), Household Consumption (December), Inflation (January), PPI (December)

·       Germany Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December), Unemployment Figures (January), GDP (Q4)

·       Italy GDP (Q4), Unemployment (December)

·       Spain Current Account (November)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (December), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (December), Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4)

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Tourism Revenues (Q4)

·       Iran Inflation (January)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Francis is scheduled to visit the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan.  He will be accompanied by the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, and the Moderate of the Presbyterian Church of Scotland, Iain Greenshields. 

·       Ghana has extended to today the deadline for bondholder exchange as part of a debt restructuring.  If there is less than an 80 percent participation rate in the exchange, the government may have to extend the deadline again, which will further delay IMF aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December), Private Sector Credit (December), Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kenya Inflation (January), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (January) 

Wednesday, February 1, 2023:

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting will be held virtually.  It is expected they will not change the group’s current oil output policy.

·       Malta will take the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

·       the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the World Health Organization (WHO) will launch a Global Alliance to End AIDS in Children Africa in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision; Fed Chair Jay Powell Press Conference.

·       US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/Mortgage Applications/Market Index (January), ADP Employment Change (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Manufacturing Employment (January), JOLTs Report (December), Construction Spending (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January), Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Decision PPI (December), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Balance of Trade (January),

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenues (January)

·       Peru Inflation (January)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 22nd OECD-Asia Development Bank Roundtable on Capital Market and Financial Reform in Asia is held in Tokyo, Japan.  Leading regional regulators are expected to attend.

·       Malaysia celebrates Federal Territory Day, a public holiday marking he day in 1974 Kuala Lumpur became a Federal Territory.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixan Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Union Budget 2023-2024

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP (Q4)

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (December), Industrial Production (December), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·        

·       Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (January), CoreLogic Dwelling Rate (January), Commodity Prices (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January), Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (December)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January), Wholesale Prices (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France will be hit by a nationwide strike by civil servants opposing pension reform efforts.

·       In the UK, the Trades Union Congress holds “protect the right to strike” day of action in protest at the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Bill.  This could result in the single largest one-day strike – over 100,000 civil servants - occurring in England in decades.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Unemployment Rate (December) Inflation (January), CPI (January)

·       UK National wide Housing Prices (January), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Inflation (January), CPI (January)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), New Car Sales (January)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January), Industrial Production (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Egypt Current Account (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January), Total New Vehicles (January)

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       Angola FX Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 2, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Oman, the UAE, and Turkey to reiterate that Washington will aggressively enforce sanctions on Russia.  The meetings come among reports that various businesses located in these countries are skirting sanctions to do business with Russia.

·       It’s Groundhog Day in the United States. Let’s hope Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t see his shadow, or it’s another six weeks of winter.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Challenger Job Cuts (January), Jobless Claims (January 28), Unit Labor Costs (Q4), Factory Orders (December)=

·       Canada Building Permits (December)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation (January), CPI (January)

·       Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference, Release of the “ECB Podcast: President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions”

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the opening keynote speech Christine Lagarde
at the awards ceremony of the Franco-German Business Awards 2023 on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Traité de l'Elysée in Paris, France.

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       France Budget Balance (December), New Car Registrations (January)

·       UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, MPC Meeting Minutes, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report.

·       Spain Unemployment (January), Tourist Arrivals (December),

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (January), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Friday, February 3, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden and Vice President Harris will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to attend the Democratic National Committee’s winter meeting.  It is also in advance of President Biden’s State of the Union address on February 7th and it is expected the President’s speech in Philadelphia will likely be a preview of what he will call for in the State of the Union (and themes we will likely hear from him on the re-election campaign trail in 2024)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment Rate (January), Non-Farm Payrolls (January), Participation Rate (January), Average Hourly Earnings (January), Manufacturing Payrolls (January), S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (January), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (January)

·       Brazil industrial Production (December), Consumer Confidence (January), S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurasian Economic Union's prime ministers will hold a meeting in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

·       Japan implements new controls on exports to Russia of vaccines, medical equipment, robots, and other technology.

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Jakarta, Indonesia, through Saturday.  Among the agenda items will be a discussion of the situation in Myanmar, which marked the 2nd anniversary of the coup ousting President Aung San Suu Kyi and installing a military dictatorship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMIs (January)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (January), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (January)

·       India S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January), FX Reserves (January 27)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (January)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (January), Home Loans (December), Investment Lending for Homes (December)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (January), S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Ukraine Summit will be held in Kyiv, Ukraine and hosted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.   European Commission President Ursula von Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel are scheduled to attend.

·       The UK’s RMT and Aslef unions (representing railways and train drivers) go on strike over pay and work conditions.

·       Also in the UK, the PCS union (which represents legal advisors and court associates) are expected to go on strike in England and Wales.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a virtual speech at ECB Industry Outreach event on Climate-related and Environmental Risk.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January), PPI (December)

·       Germany S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (January), S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI (January)

·       France Industrial Production (December), S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)

·       Ukraine GDP (Q4)

·       Russia S&P Global Services PMI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation (January), PPI (January), CPI (January)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique celebrates Heroes Day, a national holiday honoring those who laid down their lives for the cause of independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)

·       Ghana PMI (January)

·       Uganda PMI (January)

·       Zambia PMI (January 

Saturday, February 4, 2023: 

Global

·       World Cancer Day is observed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Colombia Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka celebrates National Day, a public holiday marking the date when the country gained independence from Great Britain in 1972.

·       The Sapporo Snow Festival will be held in Hokkaido, Japan, for the first time in two years due to COVID.  The event is famous for its massive and ornate snow and ice sculptures. It runs through February 11th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (January), Judo Bank Composite PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany New Car Registrations (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day militants attacked a police patrol car and assaulted the Civil Jail of So Paulo, as well as the Military Detection House and police barracks, in an attempt to release political prisoners held captive there.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, February 5, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Beijing for meetings with Foreign Minister Qin Gang to discuss a host of issues, including China’s alleged support for the Russian war effort.

·       Ecuador holds local elections as well as a national referendum on changing eight amendments of the constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s opposition Innovation Party to hold a convention in Osaka.

·       Japan’s Aichi Prefecture holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus holds the first round of presidential elections.  A run-off vote will be held on February 12th (if needed).

·       The EU ban on Russian oil products takes effect.

·       The Republic of San Marino celebrates Liberation Day, a public holiday observing the day of liberation from Abelonian occupation in 1740.  It is also the celebration of St. Agatha, the patron saint of San Marino.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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