Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 1/29/23 Francis Kelly 1/29/23

The Global Week Ahead January 22-29, 2023:

Happy Year of the Rabbit! China and much of the rest of Asia celebrate the Lunar New Year this week, an event that could see an estimated 2 billion visits by Chinese in the coming weeks despite COVID continuing to rage across the country.

The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss slapping new sanctions on Iran over their nuclear weapons development, a likely final nail in the efforts to bring back to life the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which President Trump pulled out of in 2018. Elsewhere, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov travels to South Africa in an attempt to counter the impact of President Biden’s successful Africa Summit in December. Russia is increasingly looking to find allies in Africa.

And the World Health Organization (WHO) will meet to decide whether to classify COVID as a global pandemic.

The US Congress returns from a week off and will likely begin the long, slow political battle over raising the debt ceiling. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said two weeks ago the ceiling would be hit this past Thursday and “extraordinary means” would be undertaken to avoid a default. We do not see a deal emerging for months and historically high risk a default could occur considering the intra-party fractures in the House Republican Caucus over the issue.

On the global economic agenda this week, the US will release Q4 GDP figures and global PMI numbers. The Bank of Canada will decide on a possible rate increase, and we will see the Bank of Japan release minutes from their most recent interest rate meeting. Other interest rate decisions will be taken in Thailand, Hungary, and Nigeria. Europe, Germany, Italy, and France will release consumer confidence figures. And in Asia, Japan will be releasing PMIs and the Tokyo CPI.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, January 22, 2023:

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend the Ocean Race Summit, which is taking place in Mindelo, a city on the island of São Vicente in Cape Verde.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China celebrates the beginning of the Lunar New Year (the Year of the Rabbit). Despite rampant cases of COVID, Chinese officials expect more than 2 billion trips to be taken between now and February 15th.

· New Zealand's ruling Labor Party will vote for a new leader and interim prime minister after the current Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, announced her intention to step down. The 42-year-old said last week she “no longer had enough in the tank” for the premiership. A general election has been called for October 14th.

· Japan’s Yamanashi Prefecture holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Franco-German Council of Ministers is scheduled to be held this weekend. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his cabinet will travel to Paris, and there will also be a joint ceremony of the two parliaments at the Sorbonne University. The occasion: 60 years of the Élysée Treaty. A press conference by Scholz and France’s Macron is expected on Sunday.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will travel to Algeria today and through Monday as part of efforts to boost Italy’s natural gas supply through suppliers besides Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 23, 2023:

Global

· The OECD holds a High-Level Symposium on Pro-Competitive Policies for a Sustainable Economy in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress returns to session this evening following being out last week for the Martin Luther King holiday.

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US CB Leading Index (December)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (December)

· Central Bank of Brazil Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines celebrates First Philippine Republic Day, marking the day Emilio Aguinaldo declared the country's independence after 300 years of Spanish rule.

· India observers Parakram Diwas, a national holiday marking the birth of Netaji Subhas Chanda Bose, a prominent nationalist and politician.

· Japan’s Diet (Legislature) convenes. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will deliver a policy speech to the Diet, likely focusing on budget and defense issues.

· The Head of the Japan Business Federation, known as Keidanren, and the head of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, known as Rengo, to hold a meeting about annual "shunto" spring wage negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Singapore URA Property Index (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to visit South Africa. The visit is seen by some as an attempt to offset President Biden’s Africa Summit in December, where more than 55 African leaders attended. Lavrov is then expected to visit Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and Tunisia in February.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss possible new sanctions on Iran. They will also discuss Russian aggression against Ukraine and the Sahel and coastal countries of West Africa. It will also be informed about current affairs, with a focus on Armenia, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Montenegro, and Ethiopia. Over a working lunch, EU foreign affairs ministers will hold an informal exchange of views with the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh.

· In the UK, over 2,600 members of the Unison union who are ambulance workers will go on strike. Additionally, an estimated 1,000 Welsh Ambulance Services members who are members of the Unite union will go on a 24-hour strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the Deutsche Börse Annual Reception in Eschborn, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives an introductory statement at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels.

· UK CBI Director-General Tony Dankers gives a speech, “Is the UK Stuck in a Rut on Growth?” at the UCL campus in London.

· Eurozone Consumer Confidence (January)

· German Economics Minister Robert Habeck and Elga Bartsch, the new department head for economic policy, will present the Annual Economic Report 2023 at the Federal Press Conference.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Chairman of the Russian State Duma (parliament), Vyacheslav Volodin, is expected to visit Tehran for meetings on trade and military procurement.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In London, Nigeria is due to mount a legal defense at London’s High Court, fighting to overturn an $11 billion arbitration award that left the Nigerian government owing more than a quarter of its foreign reserves to an oil & gas company, Process and Industrial Developments.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina hosts a conference of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). CELAC consists of 33 countries in the Americas. The US and Canada are not included.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Redbook (January 21st), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (January), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December), IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)

· Argentina Economic Activity (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Zealand will see Chris Hipkins sworn in as the new Prime Minister following Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s resignation last week.

· Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. to launch an H-2A rocket carrying a Japanese government intelligence-gathering satellite.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI (January)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI (January), NAB Business Confidence (December)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

· Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliament is expected to vote on the European Commission’s version of the Chips Act, which is aimed at strengthening the EU’s semiconductor supply chain.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

· The UK Shadow Foreign Secret David Lammy will lay out the Labour Party’s foreign policy in London.

· The 15th European Space Conference will be held in Brussels.

· Romania celebrates Unification Day, marking the day in 1859 when the two Romanian principalities of “Modavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the Union of the Romanian Principalities.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at a roundtable entitled "The euro as a guarantee of resilience" at a high-level conference entitled "Croatia, the 20th member of the eurozone" in Zagreb, Croatia.

· ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel entitled “Regulated Financial Service Providers” at 11th Institute for Law and Finance' conference “The Next Systemic Financial Crisis – Where Might it Come From?”: Financial Stability in a Polycrisis World” hosted by the University of Frankfurt, Germany.

· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

· Germany GfK Consumer, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

· France Business Confidence (January), Business Climate Indicator (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

· UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (December), S&P Global/CIPS Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

· Hungary Central Bank monetary decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

· Nigerian Central Bank interest-rate decision

· Tanzania GDP

Wednesday, January 25, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the International Criminal Court (ICC) Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will meet with Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou in Uruguay after attending the CELAC Conference.

· Bolivia is bracing for large-scale protests calling for the release of Santa Cruz Provincial Governor Luis Fernando Camacho. Camacho, a leading national voice for the right-wing opposition, was arrested in December and charged with “terrorism” for his alleged involvement in the 2019 political unrest that resulted in then-President Evo Morales fleeing the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January 20th), MBA Mortgage Applications (January 20th), MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 20th)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

· Mexico Economic Activity (November)

· Argentina Interest Rate Decision, Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Leading Economic Index Final (November), Coincident Index Final (November)

· Singapore CPI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (December), Inflation Rate (Q4), Monthly CPI Indicator (December)

· Bank of Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Central Bank of Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting (through the 27th).

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

· Portugal’s airline, PortugalTAP, will experience a strike by their cabin crews who are seeking better pay and working conditions.

· In the UK, Amazon workers who are members of the GMB union and work at a warehouse in Coventry will go on strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (January), Current Conditions (January), Ifo Expectations (January)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)

· Spain PPI (December)

· Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egypt marks the 12th anniversary of its 2011 revolution, which led to the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (November)

· Turkey Business Confidence (January), Capacity Utilization (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia is bracing for a Tunisian General Labor Union-backed transportation sector strike through Jan. 26.

· The African Development Bank, the Senegalese government, and the Africa Union Commission will host a food summit on the theme “Feed Africa: Food Sovereignty and Resilience.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique interest-rate decision

Thursday, January 26, 2023:

Global

· the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: Investment in People to enhance resilience against complex challenges.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US GDP (Q4), Durable Goods Orders (December), Retail Inventories (December), Wholesale Inventories (December), Jobless Claims (January), Real Consumer Spending (Q4), New Home Sales (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Kansas Fed Composite Index (January), Building Permits (December), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January), Average Weekly Earnings (November), Wholesale Sales (December)

· Brazil Current Account (December), FDI (December)

· Mexico Unemployment (December)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia celebrates Australia Day, marking the day the first European settlement was established in 1788. It is a national holiday.

· India celebrates India Republic Day, a national holiday, marking the date the Indian Constitution was finalized in 1947.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions

· India M3 Money Supply (January)

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (January), GDP (Q4)

· Singapore Industrial Production (December)

· Philippines GDP (Q4), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Industrial Production (December)

· Hong Kong Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· UK Car Production (December), CBI Distributive Trades (January)

· Spain Unemployment (Q4)

· Italy Consumer Confidence (January), Business Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will attend Republic Day in New Delhi as a special guest of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

· Turkey's opposition alliance will discuss potential presidential candidates to run in the June general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, FX Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Arica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Prime Overdraft Rate, PPI (December)

· Zambia inflation, trade data

Friday, January 27, 2023:

Global

· Today is the International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

· The World Health Organization (WHO) will determine whether or not to continue classifying COVID-19 as a global emergency.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Personal Income (December), PCE Price Index (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Inflation Expectations (January), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Pending Home Sales (December),

· Canada Budget Balance

· Brazil Bank Lending (December), Net Payrolls (December)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China is expected to release preliminary data on consumption trends during the seven-day Lunar New year holidays.

· Japan Tokyo CPIs (January)

· South Korea Business Confidence (January)

· India Deposit Growth (January), Bank Loan Growth (January), FX Reserves (January)

· Singapore Import Prices (December), Export Prices (December), PPI (December)

· Australia PPI (Q4), Export Prices (Q4), Import Prices (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit St. Petersburg to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the blockade of Leningrad.

· The European Banking Authority launches an EU-wide stress test for banks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Loans to Households (December), Loans to Companies (December), M3 Money Supply (December)

· Germany Import Prices/Export Prices (December)

· France Consumer Confidence (January)

· Italy Industrial Sales (November)

· Spain GDP (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eswatini interest-rate decision

Saturday, January 28, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former President Donald Trump is expected to make his first public campaign event since announcing his intention to run for President again. The event will be held in South Carolina, where two prominent Republicans, former Governor Nikki Haley and incumbent US Senator Tim Scott, are considering a run for the Republican nomination, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Army Day, a national holiday.

· The Czech Republic holds the second round of the presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 29, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam CPI (January), Industrial Output (January), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report

We hope you find this useful. If you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list, please send us an email. Thank you.

Francis Kelly 1/20/23 Francis Kelly 1/20/23

The Global Week Ahead: January 15- 22, 2023

It will be quite a busy week worldwide, both politically and economically. The World Economic Forum kicks off on Monday in Davos, Switzerland, with political and business leaders converging on the little Swiss village in the Alps for a packed agenda of meetings. There, we can expect significant addresses to be given by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ECB President Christine Lagarde (twice), and other top leaders on pressing issues of the day.

As the Ukraine War grinds on, Ukrainian military leaders will be warily watching as Russia begins joint air force exercises in Belarus scheduled until February 1st. Many observers worry Belarus is being increasingly pressured by Moscow to join Russia in the war on Ukraine.

This will occur as the UK, Poland, and perhaps Germany will announce decisions this week on whether they will begin supplying Ukraine with tanks which would be a significant step up in military support for Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, Russia will seek to acquire new means of ramping up the carnage they are inflicting on Ukraine as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Moscow. They are expected to discuss Iran supplying advanced ballistic missiles to Russia.

On the economic front this week, markets are watching the Bank of Japan as it meets to discuss a possible rate increase (consensus believes they will not raise rates). Elsewhere, markets are watching as China and US report important economic data points, including China’s Q4 GDP. On top of this, it’s the heart of earnings season as numerous corporations report Q4 numbers.

There will also be a fair amount of central bank speeches this week in Europe (including the aforementioned Lagarde duel speaking events in Davos) and the US, although it is a shortened work-week (Monday being Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday).

Here is everything we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China is sending a high-level delegation to Sri Lanka through January 18th to discuss economic assistance to the country

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia and Belarus will hold joint air force exercises in Belarus. The exercises will run through February 1st.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

· Israel Inflation (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 16, 2023:

Global

· The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland, and runs through January 20th. You can view the program agenda here.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The International Conference on Air Pollution and Climate Change begins in Muscat, Oman. This conference will present cutting-edge knowledge about air pollution and climate change, as well as pathways for reducing short-lived climate pollutants in the near term to safeguard human health and mitigate global warming.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Martin Luther King Day is observed in the United States, a federal holiday. The US Congress is in recess all week and returns next week.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan and India will conduct their first joint fighter jet drills through January 26th. The exercise – called “Veer Guardian 2023” was arranged at the September 2022 India-Japan “2+2” dialogue between the respective defense ministers and foreign ministers. It is seen as part of growing mutual defense efforts by the two countries in the face of China’s growing regional military capabilities.

· Bangladesh is bracing for nationwide anti-government strikes led by the opposition Nationalist Party. The Nationalist Party is demanding that the government respond to 10 demands they have made, including the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (December)

· Japan PPI (December), Machine Tool Orders (December)

· India WPI Inflation (December), WPI Food (December), WPI Fuel (December) WPI Manufacturing (December), Passenger Vehicle Sales (December)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December), Building Permits (November), Private House Approvals (November)

· Indonesia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK is expected to announce its decision to transfer Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.

· EU President Ursula der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

· EU Eurogroup meets in Brussels to get an update of Croatia’s recent changeover to the Euro, fiscal policy coordination in the Euro area, and other issues. ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

· The EU Parliament holds a plenary in Strasbourg through January 19th.

· A European delegation will finish arriving in Lebanon to investigate claims of corruption against the country's central bank head, Riad Salameh.

· The UK Parliament returns to session.

· The UK High Court hears new arguments on the UK policy of sending asylum-seekers back to Rwanda.

· Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when Kazakhstan became independent of the Soviet Union in 1991.

· Berlin Fashion Week starts and goes through January 21st.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participate in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will testify at the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee hearing on the December Financial Stability Report.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (December)

· France Budget Balance

· Poland Inflation (December)

· Hungary Construction Output (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol will lead a business delegation of more than 100 companies to visit the United Arab Emirates. Yoon will also attend the 2023 World Future Energy Summit being held in Abu Dhabi.

· Bahrain celebrates National Day, celebrating independence from Great Britain in 1971.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Budget Balance

· Israel Unemployment (December), GDP (Q3), M1 Money Supply (December)

· Qatar Inflation (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 17, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

· At the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the United Nations-convened Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA) will launch the Alliance’s first Target-Setting Protocol. The Protocol builds on the launch of the first-ever global accounting standard to measure greenhouse gas emissions associated with insurance underwriting portfolios (“insurance-associated emissions”) developed by the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF) in collaboration with the NZIA.     

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Biden will meet with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Washington, DC. One of the key issues they will discuss is restricting critical technology exports to China.

· US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will begin a visit to Senegal, Zambia (on the 23rd), and South Africa (on the 25th). Her visit, which is scheduled to conclude on January 28th, is a follow-up to the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit held in Washington last month. It is also seen as growing efforts by the Administration to blunt China’s growing influence in Africa.

· The US Office of the US Trade Representative has set today as the deadline for companies and other interested parties to submit comments as part of the USTR’s statutory four-year review of the tariffs that former President Donald Trump imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

· Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give a keynote speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC entitled “Too Big to Manage?” on addressing the question of financial institutions becoming too big and how regulators can move to deal with the risk.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)

· Canada Housing Starts (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December)

· Colombia Industrial Production (November) Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Koreas Supreme People’s Assembly standing committee will meet to discuss the state of the country’s economy.

· China may publish population data (to be confirmed).

Economic Reports/Events –

· China GDP (Q4), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Unemployment Rate (December)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (November)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (November), Car Sales (December), Motorbike Sales (December)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (January) Westpac Leading Index (December)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December), Balance of Trade (December)

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q4), NZIER Capacity Utilization (Q4), Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December) Services PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Moscow. They are expected to discuss additional Iranian military aid to Russia, including possibly providing ballistic missiles to Russia to assist in their war on Ukraine.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

· EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECONFIN)meets in Brussels to get an update on the economic and financial impact of the Ukraine War, adopt an amendment to the recovery and resilience plan of Luxembourg, and approve the conclusions of the alert mechanism report of 2023 and the annual sustainable growth survey 2023. ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate.

· It is the beginning of Men’s Fashion Week in Paris. Good time to watch “Zoolander” again.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in roundtable via webinar organized by the Centre des Professions Financières (CPF) and the Institut français de l’audit et du contrôle internes (IFACI)

· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (January)

· Germany Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December), ZEW Economic Sentiment (January), ZEW Current Conditions (January)

· UK Claimant Count Change (December), Employment Change (October), Unemployment Rate (November), HMRC Payroll Changes (December)

· Italy Inflation (December)

· Russia Current Account (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Auto Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (November), Mining Production (November)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (December)

Wednesday, January 18, 2023:

Global

· The International Energy Agency releases its January 2023 oil market report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”.

· The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is organizing a mission to Poland and Ukraine, which will take place from January 18 to 23. The program includes a UNESCO training program in Warsaw for law enforcement officials from countries bordering Ukraine to fight illicit trafficking in cultural property.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as the United States prepares to sell Turkey F-16 fighter jets.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Fed President James Bullard sits for a webcast interview with the Wall Street Journal.

· Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at the University of Texas School of Business in Austin, Texas.

· US PPIs (December), Retail Sales Figures (December), Redbook (January), Industrial Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Capacity Utilization (December), Business Inventories (November), Retail Inventories (November), NAHB Housing Market Index (January), MBA Mortgage Index Figures (January),

· Canada PPI (December), Raw Materials (December)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A Russian delegation led by Minister of Energy Nikolai Shulginov will meet Pakistan's delegation for the 8th session of their intergovernmental commission in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report, Capacity Utilization (November), Industrial Production (November), Reuters Tankan Index (January), Machinery Orders (November)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, will meet in Brussels. The attendees are the Allied Chief of Defense (including, for the first time, representatives of Sweden and Finland). The agenda covers a number of issues ranging from the Russian War on Ukraine and ongoing NATO strategic issues, including the implementation of the Concept for the Deterrence and Defense of the Euro-Atlantic.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a “special address” at the World Economic Forum entitled “Cooperation in a Fragmented World.”

· The European Parliament will elect a new Vice President following the scandal and removal of former EP Vice President Eva Kaili. Kaili, now under arrest along with three other suspects, is at the center of the ongoing “Qatargate” scandal. They have been accused of accepting bribes from Qatar and Morocco.

· EU President participates in the European Parliament plenary debate on the conclusions of the European Council meeting of December 15, 2022, in Strasbourg, France.

· In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing begins a 48-hour strike.

· In the UK, the Unison union members at the UK Environment Agency will conduct a one-day strike over pay issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in a meeting with the finance committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

· Eurozone Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December), Labor Productivity (Q3), Construction Output (November), New Car Registrations (December)

· Germany New Car Registrations (December

· UK Inflation (December)k PPI (December), new Car Registrations (December), Retail Sales (December), Labor Productivity (Q3)

· France New Car Registrations (December)

· Italy Balance of Trade (November), New Car Registrations (December),

· Poland New Car Registrations (December)

· Hungary new Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman Total Credit (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (December), Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 19, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Conference of Mayors holds its 91st Winter meeting in Washington, D.C. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will give remarks in the morning.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives an economic outlook at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

· Federal Reserve Bank of New York President & CEO John Williams speaks at the Fixed Income Analysts Society Conference in New York.

· Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give opening remarks at the Boston Fed’s “Housing, Place, and Flexible Work: The Future of the New England Economy” conference in Boston.

· US Jobless Claims (January 14), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (January), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (January), Philadelphia Fed Employment (January), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (January), Building Permits (December), Housing Starts (December)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (November), New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (November)

· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia's Federal Court will hear jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak's judicial review application challenging his August 2022 conviction.

· Thailand will officially open the Bang Sue Grand Station, Southeast Asia’s most modern rail terminal. It will be a key city transport hub, being the center of all 52 rail routes with connections to Thailand’s three main airports. Going forward, it will also be a future rail line linking Kunming in China with Singapore.

· Japan’s Aichi Prefecture officially starts campaigning for the gubernatorial seat.

· Japan’s Naoki Literary Award recipients to be selected. The Awards go to the best-emerging fiction writers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

· New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Employment Figures (December)

· Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (January), Deposit Facility Rate (January), Loan Growth (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Minsk, Belarus, for a joint collegium of the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries.

· France is bracing for nationwide strikes by the country’s eight main labor unions over President Emmanuel Macron’s new pension reform proposal.

· Today is the deadline to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland after the Westminster government gave a six-week extension.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa in Brussels.

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion entitled "Finding Europe's New Growth" at the World Economic Forum in Davos

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a moderated webinar "Geldpolitik in Zeiten von Pandemie und Krieg" (Monetary policy in times of pandemic and war) hosted by Finanzwende e.V.

· Eurozone Current Account (November)

· The German Bundesbank presents its 2022 Financial Stability Review.

· Italy Current Account (November)

· Spain Balance of Trade (November)

· UK RICS House Price Balance (December)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (January), Overnight Borrowing Rate (January), FX Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (November)

· Ghana PPI (December)

Friday, January 20, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· US Existing Home Sales (December)

· Canada Retail Sales (November)

· Mexico Retail Sales (November)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (December)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (December)

· India FX Reserves (January 13)

· Taiwan Export Orders (December)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence (Q1), Inflation Figures (December)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December), Visitor Arrivals (November)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where a breakthrough is expected on supplying Western main battle tanks to Ukraine.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen receives the Members of the Committee of the Permanent Representatives of the Member States to the European Union (COREPER) for a working lunch in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion entitled "Global Economic Outlook: Is this the End of an Era?" at the World Economic Forum in Davos

· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks virtually at the European Financial Services Roundtable.

· Germany PPI (December)

· UK Retail Sales (December)

· Italy Construction Output (November),

· Poland Employment Figures (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia holds parliamentary run-off elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 21, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Lunar New Year is observed across East Asia. Markets are closed in China and elsewhere in Asia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Slovakia holds a constitutional referendum.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 22, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China celebrates the beginning of the Year of the Rabbit.

· Japan’s Yamanashi Prefecture holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or someone you know would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 1/13/23 Francis Kelly 1/13/23

Committee Chairs for the 118th US House of Representatives

We thought we would quickly share who will chair the new committee chairs for the new US House of Representatives. There are not a lot of surprises here, as most observers expected these choices. But what will be interesting to watch is how effective each committee chair will be — especially Appropriations, Budget, Armed Services, and Rule. At this point, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has not fully revealed what concessions he made to the dissident Republican members who fought his election as Speaker last week. There is, according to McCarthy, no actual written document of the concessions but, instead, “a handshake agreement.” Therefore, it is unclear at this point how those “handshake agreements” may impact the agendas of the various committees.

Agriculture: Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)

- Ranking member: Rep. David Scott (D-GA)

Appropriations: Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX)

- Ranking member: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT)

Armed Services: Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL)

- Ranking member: Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA)

Budget: Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX)

- Ranking member: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA)

Education and the Workforce: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC)

- Ranking member: Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA)

Energy and Commerce: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)

- Ranking member: Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)

Financial Services: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC)

- Ranking member: Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)

Foreign Affairs: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX)

- Ranking member: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY)

Homeland Security: Rep. Mark Green (R-TN)

- Ranking member: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS)

Judiciary: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)

- Ranking member: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)

Natural Resources: Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR)

- Ranking member: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)

Oversight and Accountability: Rep. James Comer (R-KY)

- Ranking member: Jamie Raskin (D-MD)

Rules: Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK)

- Ranking member: Jim McGovern (D-MA)

Science, Space, and Technology: Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK)

- Ranking member: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)

Small Business: Rep. Roger Williams (R-TX)

- Ranking member: Rep. Nydia Velasquez (D-NY)

Transportation and Infrastructure: Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO)

- Ranking member: Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA)

Veterans Affairs: Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL)

- Ranking member: Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA)

Ways and Means: Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO)

- Ranking member: Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA)

Francis Kelly 1/8/23 Francis Kelly 1/8/23

The Global Week Ahead January 8 - 15, 2023

The world is returning to a regular schedule this week, coming off the holidays. We will see several important bilateral and multilateral meetings in the coming days.

President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will travel to Mexico City for a “Three Amigos” Summit hosted by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) to discuss trade issues as well as the ongoing migration challenges.

Later in the week, Japan’s Prime Minister will meet with Biden – after meeting earlier in the week with his counterparts in France, the UK, Italy, and Canada – to discuss a multitude of issues of concern to the G7 (Japan is chairing the G7 this year) as well as the War in Ukraine.

The US Congress, now that the House of Representatives finally was able to elect Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as Speaker, will get down to work with several hearings and essential organizational decisions.

The markets will look closely at the consumer price index (CPI) and other inflation data from the US, China, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico. The only major economy looking at monetary policy change this week will be the Bank of Korea which is likely to raise interest rates another 25 basis points (bringing the rate up to 3.5 percent).

Here is what we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, January 8, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will travel to El Paso, Texas, to assess border enforcement operations and meet with local officials to discuss the ongoing migration crisis. Biden will then travel to Mexico City for the “Three Amigos” Summit on Tuesday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

· Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visits Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina to discuss trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will officially reopen its border to international travelers, dropping its mandatory quarantine rule and its daily flight limits. Additionally, cross-border travel between Hong Kong and the mainland will set to resume.

· Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Indonesia through Monday, his first overseas trip as Prime Minister. He will meet with Indonesian President Joko Widodo to discuss trade, economic issues, and migrant protections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense, and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the American Economics Association Annual Meeting on “Monetary Policy for conventional times: What toolkit for the future?” in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to announce its annual policy priorities at its annual election strategy conference.

· Benin to hold legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 9, 2023:

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will co-host with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan in Geneva, Switzerland. The goal is to encourage and coordinate an international pledge to help rebuild Pakistan after debilitating floods last year.

· The UN-backed Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances quadrennial assessment report, published every four years, will be released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US College Football Championship – the University of Georgia vs. Texas Christian University – will be played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Consumer Credit Change (November)

· Canada Ivey PMI (December)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a global travel schedule taking him to France, the UK, Italy, Canada, and the US through January 15th.

· A group of German parliamentarians, all members of the Free Democratic Party, will visit Taiwan.

· Japan celebrates Coming of Age Day, a national holiday that is held to congratulate and encourage all those who have reached the age of maturity (20) between April 2, 2022, and April 1, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Building Permits (November)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (December)

· Singapore FX Reserves (December)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, in Rome, Italy.

· EU President Ursala von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech at the book launch of ‘La saggezza e l'audacia. Discorsi per l'Italia e per l'Europa’ with selected speeches of the late President of the European Parliament David Sassoli in Rome, Italy.

· The UK Parliament returns to session.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the Money Market Association of New York University on “The UK Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook” in New York.

· Eurozone Unemployment (November)

· Germany Industrial Production (November)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

· Italy Unemployment (November)

· UK BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

· Hungary's Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Budget Balance (December)

· Switzerland Unemployment (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Budget Balance (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria is expected to begin, at the order of the Central Bank of Nigeria, limiting cash withdrawals. Major protests are likely to break out nationwide.

· Tanzania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa FX Reserves (December), Vehicle Sales (December)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 10, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the UN’s peacekeeping efforts in West Africa and the Sahel.

· The UN’s resolution allowing cross-border aid to Syria will expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) will host President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for a North American Leaders Summit in Mexico City. There is a large agenda of issues they will discuss, ranging from regional trade concerns to climate issues to mass migration challenges.

· Bolivia is bracing for nationwide protests (including roadblocks of major arteries) in response to the arrest of the opposition leader of the Santa Cruz region, Governor Luis Fernando Camacho, on terrorism charges. Camacho has been highly critical of the left-wing government and has been calling on the government to move up census data that would likely give Santa Cruz more political representation and tax revenue.

· Both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives are in session this week. The House, now that it is formally convened and all members were sworn in with Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) being elected Speaker of the House, will choose committee chairs and vote on key organizational issues haggled over during the Speaker election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a panel entitled “Central Bank Independence and the Mandate – Evolving Views” at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden.

· Cleveland Fed officials will host a 2023 Economic Outlook webinar

· US Redbook (January 7), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (January), Wholesale Inventories (November)

· Brazil Inflation (December)

· El Salvador Inflation (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nepal’s new Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will likely face a no-confidence vote in parliament today.

· Kosrae (an island located in the Federated States in Micronesia) celebrates Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (November)

· Japan Household Spending (November), CPI (December)

· Philippines Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), FDI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursala von der Leyen, together with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council, signs the third Joint Declaration on NATO-EU Cooperation in Brussels.

· France will begin considering a Pension Reform Bill. A previous effort led by President Emmanuel Macron to reform the system was halted in 2020 after widespread protests and transport strikes in opposition to the effort paralyzed the country.

· The UK will see the first orbital launch from mainland Britain. It will be launched from Cornwall Airport Newquay via Virgin Orbit using a repurposed Boeing 747. The 747 will launch a rocket carrying nine satellites into space.

· IN the UK, UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union at the Rural Payments Agency and DVLA in Swansea are to strike in an ongoing dispute over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms.

· Also in the UK, the teaching union NASUWT closes a strike ballot among members working in schools and sixth-form colleges in England and Wales, recommending that they vote for a walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Norman Baily moderates a panel entitled (“central bank independence and new risks: Climate” at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden. Also on the panel will be the Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

· France Industrial Production (November)

· Spain Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

· Egypt Inflation (December)

· Turkey Industrial Production (November), Unemployment (November), Participation Rate (November)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)

· Rwanda Inflation (December)

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on Colombia.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on Cyprus.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US and Japanese defense officials will hold talks on military assistance to Japan in advance of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio meeting with President Biden on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January)

· Mexico Industrial Production (November)

· Brazil Retail Sales (November)

· Peru Balance of Trade (November)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

· Costa Rica Inflation (December)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong, marking one of the first major corporate events held in the city since lifting COVID restrictions. A number of current and former government officials and financial services CEOs will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment (December)

· Japan FX Reserves (December), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)

· Australia CPI (November), Retail Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK is bracing for a strike by ambulance staff who are members of the GMB union in their ongoing dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Italy Retails (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Current Account (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the nation’s independence in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, January 12, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: the Rule of Law among Nations. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak to the Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce at their financial forecast virtual event.

· St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joins the Wisconsin Bankers Association's Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

· US Inflation (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 7), CPI (December), Monthly Budget Statement (December)

· Brazil Business Confidence (January)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will virtually host the “Voice of the Global South Summit.” More than 120 developing countries are expected to attend. India is now the chair of the G20, and this is part of Modi’s broader attempt to best represent the issues and concerns of smaller nations at the G20 Summit in September in New Delhi, India.

· In Japan, Knasai Electric Power Company is scheduled to restart commercial operations of the #3 reactor at the Oi nuclear plant. The #3 reactor was taken offline in September 2013, restarted in 2018, and then taken offline again for a series of upgrades.

· Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation (December), PPI (December)

· Japan Current Account (November), Banking Lending (December), Eco Watchers Survey (December), Eco Watchers Outlook (December)

· India Manufacturing Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December), M3 Money Supply (December)

· Australia Building Permits (November), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Intelligence will hold a hearing to review a draft report on how the EU could develop legislation better blocking foreign interference in the EU’s democratic processes.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen leads a European Commission visit to Sweden to discuss the country’s priorities during its bloc presidency, which began this month.

· In the UK, further rail strikes over pay, this time by members of the TSSA union at Rail for London Infrastructure, operator of London’s new Elizabeth Line service.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Current Account (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (January 6)

· Israel Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Namibia Inflation (December)

· Ghana Inflation (December)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate

Friday, January 13, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting on the situation in Afghanistan, specifically the Taliban’s ban on female humanitarian aid workers.

· The UN Security Council will meet to discuss peace and security issues in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the White House. The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, specifically how to bolster Japan’s missile defense systems in the face of more aggressive North Korean missile tests and more aggressive Chinese military drills in the region. Kishida announced last month Japan will increase its national security budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 – putting it on par with NATO spending targets. Kishida may call snap elections before the scheduled 2025 elections as a result of this defense spending increase, as new tax increases are set to be implemented in 2024 to cover a shortfall of $7 billion for the defense budget. Kishida is also expected to ask Biden to visit Nagasaki during the G7 Summit in May, which would be the first time a US President has visited the Japanese city, which was hit by a US atomic bomb in 1945.

· In New York, the Trump Organization will be sentenced following a conviction in December for tax fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give the opening remarks at the bank's sixth annual Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

· St. Louis Fed officials will hold a 2023 outlook discussion.

· US Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Michigan Inflation Expectations (January)

· Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (November)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (November)

· Chile Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

· Argentina Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay Unemployment (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India will host the Auto Expo 2023, one of the world’s largest motor shows.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (December), Outstanding Loan Growth (December), Total Social Financing (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

· India FX Reserves (January), Deposit Growth (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

· South Korea Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

· Australia Home Loans (November), Investment Lending for Homes (November)

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q3), PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds presidential elections (through Saturday).

· In the UK, the National Education Union closes a strike ballot over pay among about 300,000 teachers and support staff in England and Wales.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Industrial Production (November), Balance of Trade (November)

· Germany Full-Year GDP Growth (2022)

· Italy Industrial Production (November)

· UK GDP (November), Balance of Trade (November), Construction Output (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Goods Trade Balance (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

· France Inflation (December)

· Spain CPI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

· Poland Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December), Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

· Hungary CPI (December), Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (December), FX Reserves (December), Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Botswana Inflation (December)

Saturday, January 14, 2023:

Global

· the Orthodox Church observes New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A delegation of US trade officials will travel to Taipei, Taiwan, for the first formal round of talks on a proposed US-Taiwan trade agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), FDI (December)

· Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakhstan holds Senate elections.

· Russian New Year (“Novy God”) is celebrated in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia celebrates its Revolutionary Anniversary, marking the December 2010 start of a movement to depose long-time ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The uprising started with Mohamed Bouazizi, a vegetable seller, setting himself on fire in protest over police harassment.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Global

· The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

· Israel Inflation (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or someone you know would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 1/1/23 Francis Kelly 1/1/23

The Global Week Ahead: January 1-8, 2023

Happy New Year! We wish you a happy, healthy, and peaceful 2023.

This coming week, the new US Congress convenes – the 118th – with Republicans formally taking control of the House of Representatives. But at the time of this writing, it remains unclear if Representative Keven McCarthy (R-CA) will secure enough votes to be elected the new Speaker of the House.

Globally, we will see several rotations of the chairs of key global and regional organizations: Japan takes the Chair of the G7 for 2023 (as well as the chair - for January - of the UN Security Council), Sweden takes the presidency of the European Council for the first six months of 2023, and Indonesia takes the chair of ASEAN for all of 2023.

On the global economic calendar, December PMIs will be reported this week for all the major economies of Asia, the EU, and North America. Markets will also look closely at the release of Wednesday of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting minutes, and the US jobs report this Friday to get a sense of the impact of the Fed's rate raises and prospects of a recession. Market consensus expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a gain of 217,500 non-farm jobs in December.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, January 1, 2023:

Global

· Japan takes the chair of the G7 for 2023. The next G7 meeting will be held in Hiroshima in May 2023. Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Yasutoshi Nishimura will outline Japan’s priorities at a presentation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on January 5th (link to registration to hear Minister Nishimura’s remarks in person or virtually here).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s President-elect, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, will be sworn into office.

· Haiti celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Cuban celebrates Triumph of the Revolution Day, marking the revolution begun by Fidel Castro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan to begin its two-year term as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, occupying the rotating chair for the month of January.

· Japan’s government plans to begin curbing electricity and city gas prices as part of an inflation-relief step for households and companies to start.

· South Korea will stop using the “Korean Age” system for legal and official documents. Traditionally, in South Korea, a person is one year old as soon as they are born. And they gain a year on every New Year’s Day. For example, a baby born on December 31st would be considered two years old the next day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Sweden to assume the EU Council presidency for the next six months. Their announced agenda is to forge greater unity over Ukraine, strengthen mutual defense, and work on trade issues.

· A number of major reinsurers will stop underwriting marine war insurance coverage for ships operating in Russian waters.

· Croatia will join the Eurozone and the Schengen Area Free Travel zone, the 20th EU member to adopt the Euro as the currency.

· Today is the 24th anniversary of the launch of the Euro as the new currency of the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Sudan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 2, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Balance of Trade (December), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Peru Inflation Rate (December)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako to extend New Year's greetings to the public gathered at Imperial Palace for first time since 2020 due to COVID.

· Indonesia takes the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

· Singapore URA Property Index ((Q4)

· Thailand Business Confidence (December), Retail Sales (October)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s National Union of Rail, Maritime, and Transport Workers (RMT) is set to walk off the job in strike over wages on January 3, 4, 6, and 7.

· Spain celebrates Reconquest Day, marking the liberation of Spanish and Portuguese territories from the Moors in 1492.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), New Car Sales (December)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Tuesday, January 3, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US 118th Congress is sworn in. Republicans in the House of Representatives will elect a new Speaker of the House. Republicans are bracing for it to become a multiple-ballot event, possibly lasting several days as Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) battles to win the Speakership.

· The US Senate convenes for a pro forma session to swear in new members. Leadership of both parties has already been determined with Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) continuing as Majority Leader and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) continuing as Minority Leader.

· The Consumer Technology Association’s (CES) Expo – the world’s biggest consumer electronics and technology event – will be held in Las Vegas, Nevada, this week. More than 2,800 brands from 160 countries (much less than at its height in 2020 when 4,400 companies attended).

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)

· Argentina Tax Revenue

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, to discuss mutual regional security and economic issues. The visit will go through January 5th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December), Commodity Prices (December)

· Singapore GDP (Q4), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

· South Korea FX Reserves (December)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Employment Figures (December), Inflation Rate (December)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Inflation (December), PPI (December), CPI (December)

· Bahrain Private Sector Credit (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola FX reserves (December)

· Nigeria PMI (December)

Wednesday, January 4, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden will travel to Kentucky to participate in a bipartisan event with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R), and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) to highlight the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed in 2022. While there, Biden will announce with McConnell a major project funded by the infrastructure bill, a $1.6 billion bridge between Ohio and Kentucky located in the greater Cincinnati area.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Minutes released.

· US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December), JOLTS Job Openings (November), ISM Manufacturing Employment (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (December), ISM Manufacturing Prices (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

· Brazil PPI (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

· Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December)

· India S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Australia Central Bank Chart Pack

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

· Germany Import Prices (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

· UK Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Lending (November)

· France Inflation Rate (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

· Italy S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

· Spain Employment Figures (December), Tourist Arrivals (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)

· Hungary Gross Wages (October), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Emirates NBD PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)

· Qatar Finance Centre PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Uganda PMI (December)

Thursday, January 5, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US will begin requiring negative PCR tests for arrivals from China, Macau, and Hong Kong.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a discussion entitled “Inflation - What Lies Ahead” at the 2023 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.

· US S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December), Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), Total Vehicle Sales (December)

· Canada Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

· Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s new law banning organizations from maliciously soliciting donations, enacted following criticism of fundraising practices of Unification Church, goes into effect. This is tied to the assassination six months ago of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (December)

· Japan Consumer Confidence, Joint New Year press conference to be held by Japan Business Federation, Japan Association of Corporate Executives and Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Tokyo, Japan.

· Singapore Retail Sales (November)

· Australia Judo Bank Services PMI & Composite PMIs (December)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December)

· Philippine Inflation Rate (December)

· Thailand CPI (December)

· Taiwan FX Reserves (December)

· Sri Lanka Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s ASLEF Union, representing train drivers, is expected to go on strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (December), PPIs (November)

· Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), S&P Global Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (December), Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December)

· Poland Inflation Rate (December), FX Reserves (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

· UK New Car Sales (December), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Composite PMIs (December)

· Hungary PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey’s political opposition leaders will meet to discuss their June 2023 election strategy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey FX Reserves (December)

· Israel FX Reserves (December), Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Qatar GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

· Kenya PMI (December)

· Zambia PMI (December)

· Ghana PMI (December)

Friday, January 6, 2023:

Global

· The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index released.

· The Feast of the Epiphany is celebrated in much of the Christian world, marking the final celebratory day of the Christmas season. It is commonly associated with the “Three Kings Day” – the day of the Three Wise Men who arrived at the manger of the baby Jesus bearing gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (December), Factory Orders (November), Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December)

· Canada Employment Figures (December), Average Hourly Wage (December)

· Chile Inflation (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

· Mexico Auto Production and Exports (December)

· Brazil Car Production (December)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (December), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (December), Average Cash Earnings (November), Overtime Pay (November)

· India FX Reserves (December)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

· Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (November), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Christmas on this day, a tradition for more than 1700 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a panel discussion entitled “Global Economic Outlook” at the 2023 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.

· Eurozone Inflation Rate (December), Retail Sales (November), Economic Sentiment (December), Industrial Sentiment (December), Selling Price Expectations (Decembers0, Services Sentiment (December), Consumer Sentiment (December), Consumer Confidence (December), CPI (December)

· Germany Factory Orders (November), Retail Sales (November)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (December), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (December)

· France Household Consumption (November), FX Reserves (December), Retail Sales (November)

· Spain Business Confidence (December)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (November), Retail Sales (November)

· Poland Retail Sales (November)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iranian protesters are expected to stage strikes through January 8th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Rwanda PPI (November)

Saturday, January 7, 2023:

Global

· Today is Orthodox Christmas.

· Mahayana New Year is celebrated by Buddhists around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FX Reserves (December)

· Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa’s ANC reconvenes its national conference to decide policy direction. Also, the ANC’s national executive committee will be finalized. The conference was begun in December 2022, but final decisions were put off until now due to various internal policy issues needing to be ironed out.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 8, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will officially reopen its border to international travelers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Benin to hold legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

If you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list, let us know.

Francis Kelly 12/20/22 Francis Kelly 12/20/22

The Global Week Ahead: December 18-25, 2022:

NOTE: We apologize for the late publication of this week’s report due to travel and technical issues. We will be back next week on our regular schedule.

The world is quieting down as we enter the holidays. But we are watching closely as Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Belarus to meet with the Belarusian leader to discuss regional security issues and, reportedly, to attempt to convince him to join the war on Ukraine. Also, in Russia this week, Putin is expected to hold his first formal meeting with the heads of the four regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed on Sept. 30.

In Washington, Congress is racing to finalize a multitrillion Omnibus appropriations package before the temporary spending deadline of Friday. And the House of Representatives January 6th Committee will release their final report on Wednesday detailing why they are making criminal referrals against former President Trump to the US Justice Department.

On the global economic agenda, central banks in Japan and China are expected to raise rates. There are no significant speeches by any major central bankers this week.

Here is what we are watching in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to add someone to our email list:

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Global

· The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today.

· The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Japan, the Saga gubernatorial election is to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatar celebrates National Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Niger celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 19, 2022:

Global

· The World Trade Organization begins its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to MONUSCO, as well as a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. D

· The 15th UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) ends in Montreal, Canada.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress is expected to finalize an Omnibus spending package in advance of Friday’s temporary funding deadline.

· US President Joe Biden meets with Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso to discuss bilateral security and economic issues in Washington, DC.

Economic Reports/Events –

· NAHB Housing Market Index (December)

· Canada Raw Materials Prices (November), PPIs (October & November), Raw Materials Prices (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)

· Argentina's Balance of Trade (November)

· Colombia ISIE Economic Activity (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia’s Parliament meets for the first time since the election of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. They will choose a speaker for the House of Representatives and a vote of confidence for the Prime Minister (which is expected to pass).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan starts 2-day policy meeting.

· Indonesia Loan Growth (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Belarus for a meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on integration issues with the Union States. Putin is expected to encourage Lukashenko to join in the war on Ukraine, something Lukashenko has strongly resisted.

· The leadership of the Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF), including UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Prime Minister of Latvia Krišjānis Karinš, will meet in Riga, Latvia. The JEF is composed of the UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to ensure security in the Baltic Sea and North Atlantic.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will finalize negotiations and vote on the natural gas price cap mechanism proposed by the European Commission in November.

· Today is the deadline for Azerbaijan to respond to the European Court of Human Rights inquiry on the blockage of the Lachin Corridor. The corridor is considered a “lifeline” for residents of Nagorno-Karabahk, and the EU Court has demanded they reopen it.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at Nueva Economía Forum in Madrid, , Spain.

· Eurozone Construction Output (October), Labor Cost Index (Q3), Wage Growth (Q3)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (December), Ifo Current Conditions (December), Ifo Expectations (December)

· UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December),

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegal’s parliamentarians involved in a Dec. 1 National Assembly brawl will appear in court. The brawl started after two male opposition lawmakers slapped a female member of Parliament during a justice ministry budget vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 20, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the UN’s Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

· The World Trade Organization will hear two cases brought by the European Union against China regarding EU patent holders and trade restrictions on Lithuania.

· The G20 Joint Finance and Health Task Force meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Building Permits (November), Housing Starts (November), Redbook (December 17th)

· Canada Retail Sales ex-Autos (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Mexico Retail Sales (October)

· Argentina Current Account (Q3)

· Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Balance of Trade (October), Imports (October)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 23rd anniversary of Portugal’s handover of Macao to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China People’s Central Bank monetary policy rate decision on Loan Rate Prime (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (5Y)

· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and press conference with Bank of Japan Governor Harukiko Kuroda.

· Australia’s Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

· Taiwan Export Orders (November)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Environmental Council meets to discuss a proposal that would set specific legally binding targets and obligations for nature restoration in each of the listed ecosystems - from forest and agricultural land to marine, freshwater and urban ecosystems. The measures proposed would cover at least 20 % of the EU’s land and sea areas by 2030, and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold his first formal meeting with the heads of the four regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed on Sept. 30.

· The Commonwealth of Independent States' executive committee meeting will take place in Minsk, Belarus.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening speech at the high-level industrial roundtable of the Joint Energy Platform via videoconference

· The EU Environmental Councill will meet to exchange of views on a proposal for a nature restoration law. The presidency will inform ministers about ongoing work on proposals in the Council, including on fluorinated gases, industrial emissions, and waste shipments. The Commission will present recently adopted proposals that are part of the zero-pollution package and the circular economy package.

· In the UK, as many as 100,000 members of the Royal College of Nursing hold their second one-day strike in a week over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Current Account (October), Consumer Confidence Flash (December)

· Germany PPI (November)

· Italy Current Account (October)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December), Interest Rate Decision

· Switzerland Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

· Poland Employment Growth (November), Industrial Production (November), PPI (November), Corporate Sector Wages (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership will be held in Baghdad, Iraq. French President Macron is expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (December), Central Government Debt (November)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (October & November)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

· Oman Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

· Rwanda GDP (Q3)

· Botswana GDP (Q3)

Wednesday, December 21, 2022:

Global

· In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the UN”s Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), as well as a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti and Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives January 6th Committee releases its final report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Current Account (Q3), CB Consumer Confidence (December), Existing Home Sales (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)

· Canada Inflation Rate (November), CPIs (November)

· Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)

· Mexico Private Spending (Q3), Aggregate Demand (Q3)

· Argentina Unemployment Rate (Q3), Economic Activity (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit to Indonesia through December 23rd. They are expected to discuss the situation in East Sea, regional security issues and trade matters.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

· Hong Kong Current Account (Q3)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, more than 1,600 Unite union members at the West Midlands, North West and North East ambulance service trusts walk out over pay. Also, ambulance staff across most of England and Wales will strike over pay as part of a coordinated walkout by the three main ambulance unions Unison, GMB and Unite

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (January)

· UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex-Banks (November), Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)

· Italy Construction Output (October)

· Poland Retail Sales (November)

· Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (November), GDP (Q3)

· Rwanda GDP (Q3)

· Kenya Balance of Trade (October)

Thursday, December 22, 2022:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US GDP (Q3), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November), GDP Price Index (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (December 17th), Corporate Profits 4-Week Average (December 17th), PCEs (Q3), Kansas Fed Composite Index (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)

· Mexico Inflation Figures (December)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (November)

· Paraguay GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)

· South Korea PPIs (November)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

· Thailand New Car Sales (November)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (December), Deposit Facility Rate (December)

· Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold a State Council meeting on youth policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· UK Current Account (Q3), GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3)

· Hungary Current Account (Q3), Balance of Trade (October)

· Switzerland Current Account (Q3)

· Italy Industrial Sales (October), PPI (November)

· Russia Corporate Profits (October), Industrial Production (November), Consumer Confidence (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (October)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (December), Overnight Borrowing Rate (December), FX Reserves (December)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate

· UAE Loan Growth (October & November), M3 Money Supply

· Qatar M2 and M3 Money Supply (October & November), Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 23, 2022:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Building Permits (November), Personal Income (November), Personal Spending (November), Durable Goods Orders (November), PCE Price Index (November), New Home Sales (November), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Michigan Inflation Expectations (December)

· Canada GDP (October), Budget Balance (October)

· Brazil IPCA Mid-Month CPI (December)

· Mexico Economic Activity (October), Balance of Trade (November)

· Colombia Business Confidence (November)

· Chile PPI (November)

· El Salvador Current Account (Q3)

· Panama Current Account (Q2), IMAE Economic Activity (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a draft budget for fiscal 2023 of over 100 trillion yen, the largest budget ever in Japan’s history. Among the big drivers of that figure: Japan’s defense budget is expected to be increased by 43 trillion yen ($318 billion)>

Economic Reports/Events –

· India FX Reserves (December)

· Japan Inflation Rate (November), Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Australia Housing Credit (November), Private Sector Credit (November), Private Sector Credit (November)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November), Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November)

· Singapore CPI (November), Inflation Rate (November), Industrial Production (November)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, the Royal Mail postal workers start a two-day strike over pay, jobs, and conditions.

· UK’s Border Force officers at locations in England, Scotland, and Wales begin eight days of strikes over a 10 percent pay rise, pensions, job security, and no cuts to redundancy terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France PPI (November)

· Spain GDP (Q3), PPI (November)

· Italy Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

· Poland Unemployment (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 24, 2022:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· France’s President Emmanuel Macron is expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to spend Christmas with French peacekeepers in South Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 25, 2022:

Global

· Christmas is celebrated around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Japan’s Miyazaki gubernatorial election to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/11/22 Francis Kelly 12/11/22

The Global Week Ahead: December 11 - 18, 2022

It seems to be getting busier – not slower – globally as we approach the holidays… This week, President Biden will host a summit with more than 50 African heads of state in Washington. The big news coming from it leaked this weekend: The US will endorse the African Union becoming a member of the G20, a long-held aspiration of African leaders as they seek to be better heard on the global stage.

Other significant events this week include Japan publishing a new strategic defense document that will codify their efforts to build a sizeable counterattack force in the face of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. This comes as the US opens its first Space Force operations in South Korea to assist in defending against North Korea’s growing missile capabilities. Closer to home, the US government will endure yet another partial shutdown unless Congress can agree on government spending.

On the global economic agenda this week, we will be watching as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all decide on policy rates. All three are expected to lessen the pace of rate increases from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Also, this week, we will see US inflation figures which come out on Tuesday, the day before the Fed rates decision. We will also be looking closely at PMIs coming out all over the globe this week.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week – and let us know if you have any questions or wish to add anyone to our email list:

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A delegation of senior US national security and diplomat officials will travel to Beijing as follow-up meetings coming from President Biden’s meeting with President Xi at the G20 Summit. This is seen as a positive outcome from the Biden-Xi meetings, and the overall agenda for the US-Chinese officials is, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to continue “responsibly managing the competition” and “explore areas of cooperation.” The US officials were already scheduled for consultation meetings in Japan and South Korea through December 14th but will now incorporate meetings with Chinese officials, as well.

· Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court will certify Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential election victory. He will be formally inaugurated as president on January 1, 2023.

· NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold phone calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. The purpose of the calls is to discuss the UN-backed Black Sea grain deal and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front of pack labelling.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s formal deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 12, 2022:

Global

· G7 Leaders Meeting via video conference.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Security Council subsidiary organs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress is in session all week and hopes to hold a vote on an Omnibus appropriations bill. But as of this weekend, Republicans and Democrats remain billions of dollars apart in reaching a deal. Failure to reach a deal will result in a partial government shutdown. Separately, the Senate is poised to vote sometime this week on a $858 billion defense spending bill that was passed by the House of Representatives last week.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Monthly Budget Statement (November),

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Business Council of British Columbia in Vancouver, BC.

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Business Confidence (December)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· In Japan, the kanji – or Chinese character – that best describes this year’s social mood in Japan is selected.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India Manufacturing Production (October), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (October),

· Japan PPIs (November), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q4), Machine Tool Orders (November)

· Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October & November)

· Philippines FDI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as in Iran.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with ambassadors from the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow.

· The Eastern Partnership Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels. Composed of the EU Foreign Ministers and the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, they will discuss mutual security concerns.

· EU President Ursula von Der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and then conducts a joint press conference with him. Later in the day, she participates in a G7 Leaders meeting via video conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· UK GDP (October), Manufacturing (October), Balance of Trade (October), Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (October), Current Account (October), Participation Rate (October), Auto Production (November)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (October),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya celebrates Jamhuri Day – Independence Day – a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (November)

· Ethiopia Inflation (November)

· Tanzania Inflation (November)

Tuesday, December 13, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and South Sudan sanctions.

· The virtual World Space Forum 2022 begins and runs through December 15th. The Forum, organized jointly by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology (BMK) and the Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs (BMEIA), it will continue until 15 December.   

· The annual Geminids meteor shower is likely to peak on Tuesday evening – watch for lots of shooting stars.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will be hosting the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit in Washington, DC. Through December 15th. More than 50 heads of state are expected to attend. Africa is set to be a major focus for the Biden Administration for the next two years in a. bid to help advance the continent economically and to push back on growing Chinese influence. In advance of the meeting, the White House announced that President Biden will announce his support of the African Union joining the G20 going forward, a major goal of the Union for a number of years.

· The founder and former CEO of the failed crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, is expected to testify remotely before the House Financial Services Committee to explain what happened and where billions of dollars in crypto accounts disappeared to.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee starts two days of meetings to discuss interest rates. A decision on interest rates announced with a press conference afterward with Fed Chair Jay Powell.

· US NFIB Business Optimism Index (November), Inflation Rate Figures (November), CPI (November), Redbook (December), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (December)

· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (October)

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December), NAB Business Confidence (November)

· Philippines Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to consider a proposal for a Council regulation on a temporary gas market correction mechanism.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets focus on the upcoming European Council meeting (December 15th) and discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and follow-up to the Conference on the Future of Europe. The Council will be called upon to approve the Joint Declaration on the EU legislative priorities for 2023-2024 and conclusions on enlargement and stabilization and association process.

· Malta celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

· The European Space Agency launches an Ariane 5 rocket carrying the Metosat 3rd generation satellite. The launch takes place in French Guiana.

· The UK will see a 48-hour strike by more than 40,000 Network Rail and 14 other rail unions over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

· Germany Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December), ZEW Current Conditions (December)

· France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

· UK Employment Rate (October), HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

· Bank of England publishes their financial stability report.

· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

· Italy Industrial Production (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa's National Assembly is expected to vote on the adoption of an advisory panel's report recommending an impeachment investigation into President Cyril Ramaphosa. Ramaphosa is accused of keeping millions of US dollars in a sofa at his farmhouse. When the money was stolen, it is alleged he did not report the crime to cover up the fact that he illegally kept that much foreign currency. Ramaphosa will almost assuredly be renominated by the ANC Party at their December 16th election conference and, considering his high popularity polls in South Africa, will unlikely be impeached.

· The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ghana are expected to reach a staff-level agreement on a loan likely in the $3 billion range.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (October), Mining Production (October)

Wednesday, December 14, 2022:

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release the December Oil Market Report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security. The debate is entitled “new orientation for reformed multilateralism.”

· The World Health Organization (WHO) will today release its Global Analysis and Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) 2022 report, showing the latest status of drinking-water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems in more than 120 countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representative’s January 6th Committee will likely announce criminal referrals they intend to make to the US Justice Department.

· The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting to consider four proposed rule changes aimed at increasing transparency and fairness for investors. The proposals, opposed by segments of the securities industry, are likely to pass a commission vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee announces rate increase. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference immediately afterward.

· US Import Prices (November), Export Pries (November), MBA Mortgage Markets Index (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December 9)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

· Peru Unemployment (November)

· Costa Rica Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The US will inaugurate its US Space Forces Korea unit based at Osan Air Base in South Korea. This comes as North Korea raises tensions on the peninsula with recent launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

· Senior officials from the International Monetary Fund will make a two-day visit to Bangladesh to discuss a proposed $4.5 billion IMF loan.

· Fiji holds general elections.

· SEMI, the global semiconductor industry group, holds its annual Japan trade show Wednesday through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (November), Outstanding Loan Growth (November), Total Social Financing (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

· India WPI Inflation (November), WPI Food (November), WPI Fuel (November), WPI Manufacturing (November)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4),Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q4), Tankan Large All Industry. Capex (Q4), Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q4), Machinery Orders (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q3), Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-ASEAN Commemorative Summit will be held in Brussels. It marks 45 years of diplomatic relations between the two organizations. The two groups will discuss expanding trade and infrastructure cooperation.

· The 2022 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought will be awarded by the European Parliament to the Ukrainian people for bravery. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to address plenary remotely.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a pre-recorded speech at the Finance and Biodiversity Day-COP15 meetings in Montreal, Canada.

· Eurozone Industrial Production (October)

· UK Inflation (November), Retail Price Index (November)

· Spain Inflation (November), CPI (November)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

· Poland Industrial Production (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold talks with the presidents of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to discuss projects to deliver Turkmen natural gas across the Caspian Sea and onward to Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account (Q3)

· Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

· UA Interest Rate Decision

· Oman Total Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa inflation (November), Retail Sales (October

· Ghana inflation (November)

· Mauritius interest-rate decision

· Kenya monthly fuel prices

Thursday, December 15, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts: Global counter-terrorism approach – principles and the way forward.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia and Venezuela will reopen the Tienditas International Bridge border crossing for the first time since the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2015.

· NASA will launch the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite. The role of the satellite is to conduct the world’s first comprehensive survey of Earth’s water surfaces, from oceans to lakes and rivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Business Inventories (October), Manufacturing Production (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 10), Philly Fed Employment (December), Philly Fed Business Conditions (December), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December), Philly Fed New Orders (December), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (October)

· Canada Housing Starts (November)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Colombia Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Peru GDP (October), Balance of Trade (October)

· Argentina GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (November)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will host the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing. This is the highest-level meeting on economic affairs to be attended by President Xi Jinping and where China’s leadership will set broad economic policy direction for next year. Reports suggest officials will now seek to boost consumer demand and possibly seek to further soften policies around the property sector. The meeting runs for three days.

· India will tentatively test the Agni-5, a long-range ballistic missile, from the east coast of Odisha state. The Agni-5 is India’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of hitting a target 5,000 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China’s People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), House Prices Index (November), Unemployment Rate (November), FDI (November)

· India Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November), M3 Money Supply (November 28)

· Japan Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November), Tertiary Industry Index (October)

· Australia Consume Inflation Investments (December), Unemployment Figures (November)

· Honk Kong Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November)

· South Korea Export Prices (November), Import Prices (November)

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (November), PPI (October), Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU’s European Council (Heads of State) will meet hold “strategic discussions on transatlantic relations.” This goes to the ongoing trade fight between the US and EU over green subsidies and tax credits passed by Congress in the Inflation Reduction Act.

· UK’s nurses are expected to go on strike through December 20th as they seek wage increases.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank meets in Frankfurt, Germany to discuss interest rate increases and the state of the EU economy. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward.

· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel at the “New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference” in Rome, Italy.

· The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Wholesale Prices (November), New Car Registrations (November)

· Eurozone New Car Registrations (November)

· France Business Confidence (December), Inflation Rate (November), Business Climate Indicator (December), New Car Registrations (November)

· UK New Car Registrations (November)

· Spain Balance of Trade (October)

· Italy New Car Registrations (November)

· Hungary Construction Output (October), New Car Registrations (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (November), New Car Registrations (November)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· Russia GDP (Q3)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September and October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Budget Balance (November), FX Reserves (December)

· Israel Unemployment Rate (November), Inflation Rate (November), M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa non-farm payrolls (Q3), PPI (November), Building Permits (October), Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin

· Namibia GDP (Q3), Inflation (November)

· Botswana Inflation (November)

· Nigeria Inflation (November)

· Mozambique Inflation (November)

Friday, December 16, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the 1988 Committee, regarding Afghanistan. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US government funding expires. Unless a deal is struck, the government will be partially shut down.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak at an American Enterprise Institute event on "Inflation, the Economy, and the Federal Reserve."

· US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

· Canada Inflation (November), New Housing Price Index (November), Wholesale Sales (October)

· Colombia Interest Rate Decision

· Peru GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan is expected to approve three defense related strategy documents – including the National Security Strategy – updating for the first time since 2013 Japan’s defense posture. The documents will codify Japan’s ability to develop a military counterattack capability to any attacks on the country.

· Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Deposit Growth (December)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December)

· Singapore Balance of Trade/Exports (November)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (December)

· Philippines Business Confidence (Q4)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK’s Heathrow Airport ground handling staff are expected to start a 72-hour strike.

· Also in the UK, more than 100 Eurostar security staff employed by facilities management company Mitie are due to walk out in a dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Inflation Rate (November), Balance of Trade (October), CPI (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

· UK GfK Consumer Confidence (December), Retail Sales (November), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (December)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

· Italy Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· An International Monetary Fund delegation is expected to travel to Egypt to review a plan to release a multibillion-dollar extended fund facility.

· Bahrain celebrates National Days – today and tomorrow – on the anniversary of its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP (Q3)

· Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

Saturday, December 17, 2022:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bhutan celebrates National Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ireland will see Fine Gael political leader Leo Varadkar become Taoiseach (Prime Mininster0 again as part of a coalition agreement with the rival Finna Fáil Party.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia holds legislative elections. The country has witnessed several major political developments in the last 18 months which are seen as threatening its democratic stability.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa’s ANC (African National Congress) begins its elective conference and elect party leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 18, 2022:

Global

· The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today.

· The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.

Fulcrum Perspectives

January 27 -29, 2023

Sunday, January 22, 2023:

Monday, January 23, 2023:

Tuesday, January 24, 2023:

Wednesday, January 25, 2023:

Thursday, January 26, 2023:

Friday, January 27, 2023:

Saturday, January 28, 2023:

Sunday, January 29, 2023:

Chart of the Week:

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Monday, January 16, 2023:

Tuesday, January 17, 2023:

Wednesday, January 18, 2023:

Thursday, January 19, 2023:

Friday, January 20, 2023:

Saturday, January 21, 2023:

Sunday, January 22, 2023:

Charts of the Week

Sunday, January 8, 2023:

Monday, January 9, 2023:

Tuesday, January 10, 2023:

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:

Thursday, January 12, 2023:

Friday, January 13, 2023:

Saturday, January 14, 2023:

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Sunday, January 1, 2023:

Monday, January 2, 2023:

Tuesday, January 3, 2023:

Wednesday, January 4, 2023:

Thursday, January 5, 2023:

Friday, January 6, 2023:

Saturday, January 7, 2023:

Sunday, January 8, 2023:

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Monday, December 19, 2022:

Tuesday, December 20, 2022:

Wednesday, December 21, 2022:

Thursday, December 22, 2022:

Friday, December 23, 2022:

Saturday, December 24, 2022:

Sunday, December 25, 2022:

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Monday, December 12, 2022:

Tuesday, December 13, 2022:

Wednesday, December 14, 2022:

Thursday, December 15, 2022:

Friday, December 16, 2022:

Saturday, December 17, 2022:

Sunday, December 18, 2022:

Subscribe to our newsletter.