Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 12/10/22 Francis Kelly 12/10/22

12 Books for Christmas

Reading and collecting books has been a life-long passion for me. At this point, my house is now crammed with more than 3,000 books. Many of them are first editions or author-signed, sitting on the shelves of a large, beautiful library my wonderful wife designed when we built our home.

I came to books as a teenager as a means of escape. I was a terrible student who struggled through high school and college but somehow found the solitude of reading books a relief, a peaceful place to go for adventure, fun, and peace. In all the years I’ve spent talking to clients around the world, I’m frequently asked what books I’m reading these days (is there any way to make a new friend faster than talking books with someone?).

With this in mind and knowing many of you are struggling to find good Christmas gifts for friends and loved ones - I am sharing twelve books I found particularly good in 2022. I hope you find a few of them as good as I did:

The Sassoons: The Great Global Merchants and the Making of an Empire by Joseph Sasson

A fascinating history of the Jewish-Bagdadi Sassoon family who, amid the Ottoman Empire, built a global empire trading cotton and opium while running a massive worldwide shipping and banking empire. They became leaders in British politics and the arts.

“The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, and the Pillage of an Empire” by William Dalrymple

The East India Company was a massive endeavor that forever changed the size and reach of the British Empire. But what exactly did the Company do, and how did it get so large? Dalrymple wrote a fantastic history of the first joint-stock company in history, one so big and bloated that it almost bankrupted Great Britain - more than once. It was immeasurably violent and corrupt and made some in England stupendously wealthy while taking greater India for all it was worth. You won’t be able to put this one down.

“Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy” by Martin Indyk

The Middle East has always perplexed and frustrated the US. It has been 20 years since the US last brokered a peace agreement between Israel and Palestinians, which did not last. How did it all begin? Indyk, who was “present at the creation” and has done extraordinary research for this book, explains all. He is a gifted writer who gives the reader a seat at the table, explaining Kissinger’s talents and weaknesses as he pulled every trick out of his magic bag seeking peace in the region. If you want to understand what is happening in the Middle East now, you must read this book.

“Inside Money: Brown Brothers Harriman and the American Way of Power” by Zachary Karabell

Having worked on Wall Street for nearly 30 years, I've always been fascinated by the history of the most significant firms. For the last 200 years, Brown Brothers Harriman has stood out as one of the US's most potent and impactful investment banks. Karabell writes an incisive history of the old firm and how its partnership culture steered it successfully through tough times and away from scandals - often at the cost of a lot of money in fees. Brown Brothers are not what it once was in terms of power, but because of its ethos of prudence and serving the client, it remains arguably the most pristine of financial firms in the US today.

“America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy” by Robert Zoellick

Bob Zoellick is one of the US' most distinguished diplomats. He played a critical role in negotiating the unification of Germany a later helped hammer out an extraordinary coalition of nations that jointly liberated Kuwait following Saddam Hussein's invasion and occupation. Bob has now written a great history of American diplomacy, beginning with Alexander Hamilton and Benjamin Franklin up to the current day. He identifies five traditions that have emerged from America's encounters with the world: the importance of North America; the unique roles trading, transnational, and technological relations play in defining ties with others; changing attitudes toward alliances and ways of ordering connections among states; the need for public support, especially through Congress; and the belief that American policy should serve a larger purpose. This is a great book chock full of fantastic (and little-known) facts and stories illuminating the story of the United States in the world.

A Pipeline Runs Through It: The Story of Oil From Ancient Times to the First World War by Ken Fisher

We think of petroleum as a relatively new invention, but the truth is has been used since the age of the Neanderthals. Fisher takes an in-depth history of the use of oil over the generations, detailing how the fight for its control changed the world long before we became dependent on it for travel, heating, and all the other modern uses for it today.

The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and the World on the Brink by William Inboden

The peaceful end of the Cold War seems to be fading from history these days, especially as we see another form of Russian totalitarianism wreaking havoc in Ukraine now. But Inboden takes us back to the days when the Soviet Union seemed strong and virtually invincible - and how Ronald Reagan turned it all on its head, determined to throw Soviet Communism “on the ash heap of history.” As an old Reagan White House staffer who was around when the Berlin Wall fell and the Iron Curtain imploded, this was a marvelous and inspiring read of what one man could do to change the world for the better.

Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by M.E. Sarotte

It was then-Secretary of State James Baker who proposed to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev a bargain following the fall of the Berlin Wall: If you let Germany go, we will not move NATO one inch eastward. That, of course, did not hold and, in many ways, helped contribute to Russia’s grotesque invasion of Ukraine today.

The End of the World is Just Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan

Zeihan, who previously authored the best-selling “The Accidental Superpower” in 2014, argues we have been living in an artificial world where the rules of geography, demographics, and the US’s eroding commitment to free trade - among several other factors - are leading the world (but not the US) to a disaster-in-waiting. It is not a cheery book, but Zeihan has done a lot of excellent research and presents some chilling scenarios we all must consider in the coming years.

Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’ Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump by Rachel Bade and Karoun Demirjian

Love him or hate him, the Trump years in Washington were intense and often bewildering. One aspect of those years which left me particularly shocked and asking a lot of questions was how Congress could bring impeachment proceedings against President Trump twice and fail to convict him. In their book, Bade and Demirjian (both Politico reporters) detail in gruesome detail the political hackery and incompetence on both sides of the aisle. A depressing but deeply researched and sourced book.

The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War by Nicholas Mulder

This one is a bit wonky and academic but still very worthy of reading, especially in today’s geopolitical realm, where sanctions seem to be applied everywhere. Mulder takes us back to World War I, where we see how blockades were put into effect - and the innumerable times since then sanctions have been used and their economic impact and effectiveness (or lack thereof).

China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower by Frank Dikökker

Dikötter is an extraordinary historian of modern China, a scholar and professor in Hong Kong who has written about the Communist Revolution and the development of the Chinese Communist Party. In his latest book, he details how China rose from the disaster of the Cultural Revolution to become an economic and political powerhouse - along the way laying traps for itself, which the current leadership is struggling to deal with.

* * * * * * *

Bonus Round: These books I’ve just recommended are - for the most part - a bit heavy academic reads. But I do love a good novel - especially those dealing with the interwar years in Europe. No one does that better than Alan Furst. He has written twelve stories set in Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey, Berlin, and Paris. Characters from one book occasionally appear in later books, adding a twist of memories and experiences to the tale you are reading. Love, war, espionage - Furst somehow captures the interwar years' emotions and events, placing you there as a witness. I hope he writes more.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Francis Kelly 12/10/22 Francis Kelly 12/10/22

Weekend Reads: December 9-11, 2022

We are sharing a few research pieces and notable news stories that caught our eye in the past week. We hope you find it interesting and useful. And please let us know if you would like to add someone to our distribution list.

· “The EU has a spy problem – here’s why it’s so difficult to catch them” Politico EU

They’re hovering at the bar at the think tank networking event. They’re raising their hand in the press room at European Union briefings. They’re listening in — if a 2019 warning to staff from the European External Action Service is to be believed — at the bars and restaurants near the European Commission’s headquarters. Faced with Russian hostility and Chinese snooping, Belgium has upped its counterintelligence game — but Brussels remains a spies’ playground.

· “Where Does All the Cardboard Come From? I Had to Know” New York Times Magazine

Entire forests and enormous factories running 24/7 can barely keep up with demand. This is how the cardboard economy works.

· “The New Geopolitics of Global Finance” Blog by Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations

Setser, the Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations, writes an excellent blog discussing geopolitics and finance. In this post argues that the global balance of payments only adds up if the G-7’s geopolitical rivals are also its bankers.

· “Biden, Congress Job Ratings Unchanged After Midterm Elections” Gallup

Despite Democrats picking up one net seat in the US Senate and limiting losses in the House of Representatives in the recent mid-term elections, President Biden’s approval ratings are still at 40 percent. And Congress languishes at 22 percent.

Chart of the Week: The Top Three Producing Countries in Production of Selected Minerals and Fossil Fuels

This week, the European Union concluded a trade deal with Chile, allowing the EU greater access to critical minerals needed for renewable energy (lithium, copper, etc.). The agreement also allows the EU to pivot away from importing away from China. The below chart from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) breaks down which countries extract and process the most minerals:

Francis Kelly 12/4/22 Francis Kelly 12/4/22

Christmas in New York…

Nothing can put you into the Christmas Spirit than the tree at Rockefeller Center…taken last week as I was walking from one meeting to another…

Francis Kelly 12/4/22 Francis Kelly 12/4/22

The Global Week Ahead: December 4 - 11, 2022

Christmas may be just around the corner, but there are a lot of events of note this week around the world. Canada will be hosting the COP15 Summit on Biodiversity this week. Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Saudi Arabia for bilateral meetings after China holds a memorial service for the recently deceased former President Jiang Zemin. A memorial in his honor will be held in Beijing but closed to the public as COVID cases continue to spike nationwide and lock-downs widen. Meanwhile, we will see the run-off Senate election in Georgia, deciding if the Senate is tied or if Democrats get a one-seat majority.

On the global economic agenda this week, it seems every major nation will be releasing producer price index (PPI) data. We will be watching a number of key US economic data releases, including the PPI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. We also will be getting inflation data from China, industrial production from Germany, and trade data from key economies.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, December 4, 2022:

Global

· The 33rd OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria. They decided not to increase production the face of new COVID lock-downs in China and Russia’s growing struggles to sell oil on the open market.

· Today is “National Francis Day” celebrating all of us named Francis.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will begin a two-day visit to India to discuss bilateral security and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 5, 2022:

Global

· International Monetary Fund strategy chief Ceyla Pazarbasioglu will travel to China this week for high-level meetings to urge Beijing to speed up debt restructuring for countries in debt to China via Belt & Road Initiative programs. Chinese President Xi Jinping promised at the recent G20 Summit to work on debt treatment. China is the largest sovereign creditor in the world.

· The World Health Organization (WHO) meets in Geneva, Switzerland, to review the new pandemic accord.

· 13th United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) International Debt Management Conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland, and it continues through December 7th.

· The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da'esh/ISIL (UNITAD). Later in the day, they scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Latin American leaders gather for the Annual Mercosur Summit in Uruguay (through December 6th). Most of the Mercosur members are upset over Uruguay negotiating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership without them. There is a slight risk Uruguay will be suspended from Mercosur.

· EU and U.S. policymakers will convene for the third EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council summit, at which they will discuss ongoing collaboration and priorities for 2023, including finding a solution to trade disputes surrounding the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.

· Georgia holds its runoff election for the US Senate seat between Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker.

· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit is being held today and tomorrow. A number of leading CEOs and senior Washington officials will be speaking. The agenda can be seen HERE.

· Haiti celebrates Discovery Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November), ISM Non-Manufacturing Orders (November), Factory Orders (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November)

· Canada Building Permits (October)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (November), Exports (October)m PPI (November)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol to discuss expanding bilateral security and economic relations and to celebrate three decades of diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Services PMI and Caixin Composite PMI (November)

· India S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (November)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (November), Retail Sales (October)

· South Korea FX Reserves (November)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

· Taiwan FX Reserves (November)

· Australia Ai Group Construction Index (November), S&P Global Services and Global Composite PMIs (November), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November), Company Gross Profits (Q3)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The newly agreed to EU price cap on Russian oil enters into effect.

· The Eurogroup meets to discuss the overall economic and fiscal situation in the euro area and prospects for reforming the EU economic governance framework.

· EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.

· The Netherlands celebrates St. Nicholas Eve.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde attends a High-Level Seminar for Central Bank Governors organized by the IMF Singapore Regional Institute (STI) and Southeast Asian Central Banks (SEANCEN) Centre in Siem Reap, Thailand.

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the Eurogroup meetings in Brussels

· Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs (November), Retail Sales (October)

· Germany Services and Composite PMIs (November)

· France Services and Composite PMIs (November), Retail Sales (October)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Services and Composite PMIs (November), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

· Russia Services and Composite PMIs (November)

· Poland Retail Sales (October)

· Hungary Retail Sales (October)

· Spain Services and Composite PMIs (November)

· Italy Services and Composite PMIs (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Lebanon’s caretaker cabinet meets for the first time in six months.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

· Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (November)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (November), PPI (November), CPI (November)

· Lebanon BLOM PMI (November)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

· Israel Business Confidence (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

· Bahrain Private Sector Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria is expecting large protests in response to arrests of a student accused of defaming Nigeria’s First Lady.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Global PMIs (November)

Nigeria's Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

Tuesday, December 6, 2022:

Global

· Canada hosts COP15, the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).

· St. Nicholas Day is celebrated by the Roman Catholic and other Christian faiths.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The judges of the corruption case against Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will announce their verdict.

· President Biden and US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will attend TSMC’s (Taiwan’s largest semiconductor company)“tool-in” ceremony in Phoenix, Arizona. This facility is TSMC’s most advance plant in the US. The “tool-in” is symbolic for the for the start of equipment installation at the facility, a critical step to begin operations.

· The first auction of offshore wind development rights off the coast of California is to be held.

· The Milken Institute’s Future of Health Summit is held in Washington, DC through December 8th. It will feature more than 200 speakers from the senior ranks of the US Government and private sector.

· Today is the end of the 60-day period for Chinese tech and chip companies to answer requests for information from the US Commerce Department. Those companies that fail to do so will be added to the Entity List – the official US export control blacklist.

· Today is the 81st anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Redbook (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current (November)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

· Mexico Auto Exports (November), Gross Fixed Investment (September)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

A memorial service will be held in Beijing in the Great Hall of the People for former President Jiang Zemin. But will be closed to the public and broadcast live instead.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Household Spending (October)

· Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (Q3)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

· Thailand CPI (November)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (November), Wholesale Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Western Balkans Summit is to be held Brdo pri Kranju, Albania. The summit will take stock of progress on key investments under the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans and discussed geostrategic issues.

· Ukraine celebrates Armed Forces Day.

· EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss protecting the EU budget against breaches of the principles of the rule of law in Hungary, €18 billion in financial support to Ukraine, and the Pillar 2 directive ensuring a global minimum level of taxation for multinational corporations.

· EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meets in Brussels.

· The 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Free State of Ireland.

· Spain celebrates Día de la Constitución (Constitution Day), a national holiday.

· Finland celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN Meetings in Brussels.

· ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel “Programmes and policies toward gender equality” at Women’s in Finance Talk 2022 in Stockholm, Sweden.

· Germany Factory Orders (October), S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (November)

· Eurozone S&P global Construction PMI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Egypt FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The South African Parliament will discuss and debate an independent panel’s report released November 30th accusing President Cyril Ramaphosa of misconduct and violating the constitution. The scandal revolves a $4 million theft from Ramaphosa’s farm.

· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on state visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa GDP (Q3)

· Ghana PMI (November)

Wednesday, December 7, 2022:

Global

· the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee, concerning Sudan. They are also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The American Enterprise Institute will hold a discussion on “The Proposed Securities and Exchange Commission Rule on the Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors” This will likely give insights into the line of attack by House Republicans on ESG policy in the new Congress and pressure that will be brought to bear on financial regulators pursuing climate-related disclosure rules.

· Bloomberg holds a Sustainable Business Summit in New York.

· Today is the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 17 launch, the final moon landing by the US.

· Guatemala kicks off the Christmas season with the annual “Burning of the Devil.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· US MBA Mortgage Markets Indexes/Applications/30 Mortgage Rate (November), Unit Labor Costs (Q3), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (October)

· Canada Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Car Production (November),

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Argentina Industrial Production (October)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Saudi Arabia through Dec. 9.

· National security advisors from India and Central Asia will meet in New Delhi, India, to discuss regional connectivity, terrorism and the Afghanistan situation.

· India celebrates Flag Day, a national holiday.

· East Timor observes Memorial Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), FX Reserves (November)

· India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

· Japan Central Bank Governor Nakamura Toyoaki speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

· Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)

· Hong Kong FX Reserves (November)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (November)

· Australia GDP (Q3), Building Permits (October), Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack

· Philippines Unemployment Figures (October) Industrial Production (October), FX Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Russia's Presidential Council for Human Rights.

· European defense ministers meet at the annual European Intervention Initiative in Oslo, Norway to discuss regional security issues.

· France's Court of Justice will begin hearing a lawsuit against French energy giant TotalEnergies over Ugandan oil projects.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech on the occasion of the 120th anniversary of Bocconi University.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives a virtual speech at the Global Perspective 2022 Conference sponsored by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives the keynote speech at LBS-AQR Insight Summit organized by the AQR Asset Management Institute at London Business School in London

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a virtual speech at the Kanagroo Group debate on the revised CRD6/CRR3 package.

· Eurozone GDP (Q3), Employment Change (q3)

· Germany Industrial Production (October)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (November), BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), FX Reserves (November)

· Italy Retail Sales (October)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

· Hungary Industrial Production (October)

· Poland FX Reserves (November), Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November), FX Reserves (November)

· Ukraine FX Reserves (November)

· Russia FX Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· UAE S&P Global PMI (November), Loan Growth (October), M3 Money Supply (October)

· Oman Budget Balance (October)

· Israel FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· A Kenyan panel will meet to discuss whether to remove from office four election commissioners who declined to certify President William Ruto's election victory.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa FX Reserves (November)

· Mauritius Inflation (November), FX Reserves (November)

· Seychelles Inflation Data (November)

Thursday, December 8, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA)/LRA.

· The Roman Catholic Church celebrates the Feast of the Immaculate Conception globally.

· Buddhists in Japan celebrate Bodhi Day, also known as Rohatsu.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss climate-related financial risk.

· The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a virtual meeting to discuss account statement disclosures entitled "Do client statements adequately serve investors?"; Discussion regarding corporate tax transparency and single-stock exchange-traded funds.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Jobless Numbers (First Week of December)

· Brazil Retail Sales (October)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s Gujarat state – the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi – will announce election results. The outcome of the vote will help set the tone for the 2024 national election where Modi will seek a 3rd term as Prime Minister.

· Uzbekistan celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Current Account (October), Eco Watchers Survey Current and Outlook (November)

· Australia Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Brad Jones Speech on “The Economics of a Central Bank Digital Currency in Australia: Some Considerations”; Reserve Bank Bulletin, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Defense Agency holds its annual conference in hybrid form.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through December 9th to discuss the full application of the Schengen acquis in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania. Ministers will assess progress on the regulation to prevent and combat child sexual abuse.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council meets to reach an agreement on two proposed directives: on improving working conditions in platform work and on the protection of workers from the risks related to the exposure to asbestos.

· Lyon, France, begins the four-day Fête des Lumières.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the Sixth Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) "Addressing Financial Stability Challenges"

· ECB President Christine Lagarde attending the pre-opening of the exhibition of Rosemarie Trockel at Museum für Moderne Kunst in Frankfurt, Germany.

· France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Figures (November), Budget Balance (November)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey FX Reserves (December)

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account (Q3), Manufacturing Production (October)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, December 9, 2022:

Global

· Today is UN Genocide Prevention Day and the 74th anniversary of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the D.R. Congo sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Union employees of the New York Times is expected go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US PPIs (November), Fed’s Quarter Financial Accounts, WASDE Report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the US Department of Agriculture), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), Wholesale Inventories (October), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (December), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Michigan Inflation Expectations (December)

· Canada Capacity Utilization (Q3)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (November), Business Confidence (December)

· Argentina Inflation (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan and Australia will hold "two-plus-two" security talks focused on North Korea and China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India FX Reserves (November)

· Thailand FX Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat "Challenges for banks in a new operating environment" with Mr. Herodotou, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, at the 10th Cyprus Banking Forum & Fintech Expo in Nicosia, Cyprus.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel session entitled "Greek Banking Sector – Growth and Development Outlook" at 24th Invest in Greece Forum "Sustaining Growth and Investment Momentum" organized by Capital Link in New York.

· Spain Industrial Production (October)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (November), GDP (Q3)

· Poland Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia Inflation Rate (November), Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

· Rwanda PPI (October)

Saturday, December 10, 2022:

Global

· The Noble Prize Award ceremony is held in Oslo, Norway.

· Today is International Human Rights Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Heisman Trophy is announced for the most outstanding player in US college football..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia hosts the first round of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) in Brisbane. The negotiations, involving 14 nations, will go until December 15th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq celebrates Victory Day marking the victory over ISIS. It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Rwanda Inflation Rate (November)

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front-of-pack labelling.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/3/22 Francis Kelly 12/3/22

The Global Week Ahead: November 27- December 4, 2022

This week, we will be watching closely something that is not on the global calendar: Growing protests across China where protestors are shouting, “Down with the Communist Party! Down with Xi Jinping!” These are unprecedented acts of civil disobedience in Communist China and are the result of growing draconian COVID lockdowns. Markets will be asking: How long will Xi allow the protests in Shanghai, Beijing, and other major cities before instituting tough crack-downs? All this is going on as European Council President Charles Michel visits Beijing to help patch up increasingly rough relations between the EU and China.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Washington on Wednesday to meet with President Joe Biden. They are expected to discuss not only the state of the war in Ukraine but also growing US-EU tensions on everything from electric vehicle subsidies the US Congress recently approved in the Inflation Reduction Act to EU accusations the US is profiteering off the war.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will look at the US jobs report and the PCE inflation reading. Also, Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving a closely watched speech at the Brooking Institution on Wednesday, the same day the Fed publishes the Beige Book. In Europe, the CPI releases will be the significant focus, along with several speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde. In Asia, China is expected to release PMIs and Japan has several important economic activity indicators being released.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week. Let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to be added anyone to our mailing list:

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Global

· The First Day of Advent in the Gregorian Christian Calendar marking the start of the western church’s countdown to Christmas.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Mongolia’s President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsuh will visit Beijing for meetings on mutual issues of concern.

· Japan’s and the Philippines’ air forces will conduct unit-to-unit exchanges and training sessions through December 11th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Monday, November 28, 2022:

Global

· The G-7 Justice Ministers will meet in Berlin, Germany. This is the first such meeting of justice ministers and Germany holds the G-7 presidency.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East.

· The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism will hold a virtual event entitled Safeguarding the Metaverse: Countering Terrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism in Digital Space,

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress returns to work after taking last week off for Thanksgiving. They will be working on a number of market-sensitive issues including raising the debt ceiling, passing the defense appropriations bill, and figuring out what to do with the US budget.

· Argentina celebrates National Sovereignty Day.

· “Cyber Monday” in the US, offering online retailers to off post-Thanksgiving holiday deals.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks at the Economic Club of New York.

· US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

· Canada Current Account (Q3)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (October)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amamiya Masayoshi to speak at the 2022 Autumn Annual Meeting of the Japan Society of Monetary Economics in Kobe, Japan.

· Australia Retail Sales (October)

· Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Moscow. This is part of the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum, which seeks greater economic cooperation between the two countries. The leaders meet in the face of Kazakhstan, increasingly critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

· NATO will hold their Exercise Cyber Coalition 22 (through December 2nd). It is NATO’s largest training exercise and is aimed at training participants how to defend NATO and critical national networks.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) will meet in Brussels. This will be a follow-up meeting to discuss the EU-African Union Summit held February 17-18. They will also discuss Ukraine and Afghanistan.

· The European Parliament Committee of Inquiry holds hearings tomorrow (November 29) investigating the use of Pegasus and equivalent surveillance spyware in the EU, particularly its use in Spain.

· Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visits the UK for talks with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

· UK Prime Minister addresses the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in London. Traditionally, at this event, the Prime Minister focuses on foreign policy and where he/she sees it going.

· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council meets in Brussels to discuss the European Education Area in times of Russia’s War of aggression against Ukraine and other major issues.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Moussa Faki, Chair of the African Union Commission, and co-chairs with him the 11th Commission-to-Commission meeting between the EU and the African Union.

· The GMB Scotland union (which serves in the Scottish Ambulance Service) begin a 26-hour strike for more pay.

· Albania celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde makes a (virtual) statement before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels. She will brief them on the current economic situation in the Eurozone, particularly with regard to inflation as a global challenge.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel on “How safe and inclusive are crypto payments?” at the Financial Times Live’s Crypto and Digital Assets Summit in London.

· Eurozone Loans to Households (October), Loans to Companies (October)

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

· Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (October), M3 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Internet Governance Forum is held in Addis Ababa. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will speak.

· Mauritania celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision (expected to be raised 150 bps to 26 percent)

Tuesday, November 29, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the situation in Syria.

· The UN Peacekeeping Commission meets on the situation in Guinea-Bissau.

· The UN will host a hybrid launch of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of Global Water Resources report 2021.

· Financial Times Global Banking Summit begins in London. Leading global bank CEOs are expected to speak as well as key regulators.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The United States and Russia are expected to begin new START nuclear talks in Egypt through December 6th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club on “The Outlook for Monetary Policy and Observations on the Evolving Economy”

· US Redbook (November), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September), House Price Index (September), CB Consumer Confidence (November), CB Consumer Confidence (November), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (November)

· Canada GDP (October)

· Brazil PPIs (October)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (October)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Laos’ President Thongloun Sisoulith makes an official visit to China and meetings with President Xi Jinping. Laos is one of the least developed countries in Southeast Asia and highly dependent on China for trade – it is estimated 65 percent of its GDP is debt exposure to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment Figures (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Singapore Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October), PPIs (October)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (November), Retail Sales (November), Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Taiwan GDP (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The foreign ministers of NATO’s North Atlantic Council will meet in Bucharest to discuss the Ukraine War. They will also discuss how best to implement commitments each of the countries made in their June meetings as well as the progress of gaining full membership of Sweden and Finland into NATO.

· The EU-Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) ministerial meeting is held in Brussels. They will discuss trade, economic and financial cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos offers opening remarks (virtually) at XIII Encuentro Financiero organized by Expansión.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Keynote speech on “Preisdynamik und Zinswende” followed by a discussion at a conference organized by IG Metall in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England’s Catherine Mann speaks (virtually) as a panelist at The Conference Board's Navigating the Economic Storm, ‘Policy solutions: fiscal and monetary”

· Eurozone Economic Sentiment (November), Industrial Sentiment (November), Selling Price Expectations (November), Services Sentiment (November), Consumer Sentiment (November), Consumer Confidence (November), Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

· Germany Inflation Rate (November), North Rhine Westphalia CPIs (November), Baden Wuerttemberg CPIs (November), Bavaria CPIs (November), Brandenburg CPIs (November), Hesse CPIs (November), Saxony CPIs (November)

· Italy Industrial Sales (September), PPIs (October)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (October), Mortgage Lending (October), Net Lending to Individuals (October)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November), Harmonized Inflation Rate (November), GDP Growth (Q3), Business Confidence (November)

· Switzerland GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (November), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

· Iran Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Private Sector Credit (October), M3 Money Supply (October), Unemployment Rate (Q3)

· Lesotho’s Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 30, 2022:

Global

· The UN Peacekeeping Commission will hold an ambassadorial-level follow-up meeting to Monday’s meeting on the situation in Burundi.

· the UN’s International Labor Organization (ILO) is expected to release its Global Wage Report for 2022/2023.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Washington DC for meetings with President Biden. They will discuss a full slate of issues ranging from the Ukraine War to China to emerging US-EU trade tension over electric car subsidies. He will be in Washington through December 1st.

· The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Martin Gruenberg for the role of Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This will likely be a heated event as Republican Senators are angry over Gruenberg’s role in ousting the last chair, Jelena McWilliams. The hearing will also give insights into the Biden Administration’s financial regulatory agenda for the next two years.

· The House of Representatives Democratic Leadership elections are to be held. Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expected to be elected Minority Leader, replacing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) who announced she was stepping back from a leadership role.

· President Biden hosts the lighting of the National Christmas Tree in Washington, DC.

· Barbados celebrates Independence Day.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaks at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC on the “Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market.”

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (virtually) at the KBW CEO Strategy Forum.

· US GDP (Q3), Fed Beige Book released, JOLTS Figures (October), ADP Employment Change (November), Goods Trade Balance (October), Retail Inventories Ex-Autos (October), PCE Prices (Q3), Real Consumer Spending (Q3), Corporate Profits (Q3), MBA Mortgage Indexes (November), Pending Home Sales (October)

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (October), Nominal Budget Balance (October)

· Chile Copper Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Ispace – a Japanese space start-up – will have its moon lander launched by a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral in Japan. The lander carries small lunar rovers from the UAE and Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (November), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (November), NBS General PMI (November)

· India GDP (Q3), Infrastructure Output (October), Government Budget Value (October)

· Singapore Bank Lending (October)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision, Private Consumption (October), Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Coincident Report (October), Retail Sales (October)

· South Korea Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

· Japan Industrial Production (October), Housing Starts (October), Construction Orders (October)

· Australia Construction Work Done (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (October), Building Permits (October), Private House Approvals (October), Private Sector Credit (October), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (November)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) foreign ministers meet in Lodz, Poland.

· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addresses the Berlin Security Conference.

· The UK’s Royal Mail staff go on strike through Thursday.

· St. Andrew’s Day, a public holiday in Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB’s Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England’s Huw Pill speaks (virtually) at Speech at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Economic Summit

· Eurozone Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

· Germany Unemployment Rate (October), Import Prices (October)

· France Inflation Rate (November), GDP (Q3), Household Consumption (October), PPIs (October)

· Italy GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate Figures (November), CPI (November)

· Spain Retail Sales (October), Current Account (September)

· Hungary PPIs (October)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (November), Economic Sentiment Index (November)

· Poland GDP (Q3)

· Russia GDP (October), Unemployment Rate (October), Real Wage Growth (September), Business Confidence (November), Retail Sales (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

· Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey GDP (Q3)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Balance of Trade (October)

· Nigeria FX Reserves (November)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, December 1, 2022:

Global

· India assumes the presidency of the G20.

· India assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Democratic Party leaders begin three days of meetings to figure out the orders of states voting in the 2024 presidential primaries. The debate is over whether Nevada or New Hampshire will go first and will Michigan or Minnesota will replace Iowa in the order.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr speaks (virtually) at the American Enterprise Institute on bank capital.

· US Challenger Job Cuts (November), Personal Income (October), PCE Price Index (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November), Core PCE Price Index (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), ISM Manufacturing PMI/Manufacturing Employment PMI/Manufacturing New Orders/Manufacturing Prices (November), Construction Spending (October),

· Brazil GDP (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Balance of Trade (November)

· Canada Labor Productivity (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Mexico Business Confidence (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

· Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The trial of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai begins in Hong Kong. He is charged with conspiring to collude with foreign forces under tough new national security laws imposed by Beijing.

Economic Reports Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will give a virtual address to the Asian Development Bank Institute as part of the Institute’s Conference entitled 25th Anniversary Celebration: Strategies for Developing Asia’s Future.

· Bank of Japan Board Member Noguichi Asahi to give remarks at a meeting with local leaders in Akita, Japan.

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· South Korea GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Japan Capital Spending (Q3), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Inflation Rate (November), Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Australia's Balance of Trade (November), Building Capital Expenditures (Q3), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (November), Private Capital Expenditures (Q3), Commodity Prices (November)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Business Confidence (November)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (November), Wholesale Prices (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Council President Charles Michel will travel to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Michel, representing the leaders of the EU’s 27 members, will discuss the future of the EU-China relationship. It is the first time Michel has traveled officially to China and comes as increasing tensions over trade and human rights are leading many EU countries to reconsider their relationship with China.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meet in Brussels. They will discuss cars, household appliances, and electronics and the impact of geostrategic and value chain disruptions.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Dublin to help celebrate Ireland’s 50th anniversary of EU membership. Von der Leyen will address a rare joint session of the houses of parliament.

· Portugal celebrates Independence Day.

· Romania celebrates Independence Day.

· London sees the lighting of the Norwegian Christmas Tree in Trafalgar Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB General Council Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria offers an introductory statement before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels.

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Keynote speech at the Annual Banque de France / EUI conference in Florence, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson at Lustrum Symposium organized by Vereniging voor Financieel Recht in Amsterdam, Sweden.

· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Unemployment Rate (November)

· Germany Retail Sales (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· UK Nationwide Housing Prices (November), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (October), Inflation Rate (October), CPI (November), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Unemployment Rate (October)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (Q3), GDP (Q3), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Corporate Profits (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November), MPC Meeting Summary

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique’s Supreme Court to deliver ruling in hidden-debt trial.

· The Central African Republic celebrates Republic Day.

· Chad celebrates Freedom and Democracy Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November), total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Friday, December 2, 2022:

Global

· Release of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index (November)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Northrop Grumman Company and the US Air Force are expected to unveil the new B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber, the most advanced plane in the world.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Non-Farm Payrolls (November), Unemployment Rate (November)

· Canada Unemployment Figures (November)

· Brazil IPC-FIPE Inflation Figures (November)

· Mexico FX Reserves (October)

· Peru Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Tax Revenue Estimates (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN+3 Economic Cooperation and Financial Stability Forum is held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. This year’s agenda will focus on sustainability and regional economic and financial developments with keynote speeches by China’s Finance Minister Liu Kun and Bank of Japan Governor Harukiko Kuroda as well as Ms. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Finance Minister, Indonesia Ministry of Finance and Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, Finance Minister, Thailand Ministry of Finance.

· The Bank of Thailand co-hosts a forum with the Bank for International Settlements. Among the expected speakers are Bank of China Governor Yi Gang, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BIS Chief Agustin Carstens, and Singapore Central Bank Chief Ravi Menon.

· Laos celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India FX Reserves (November), Deposit Growth (November), Bank Loan Growth (November)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

· Australia Reserve Bank Governor Lowe Philip Lowe to participate in the Bank of Thailand’s 80th Anniversary Conference in Bangkok, Thailand.

· Australia Retail Sales (October), Home Loans (October), Investment Lending to Homes (October)

· Philippines PPI (October)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (November), CPI (November), Inflation Figures (November)

· Singapore Retail Sales (October), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meet in Brussels. They will discuss research infrastructures and the New European Innovation Agenda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel session, "Growth and Inflation Dynamics," at Bank of Thailand's 80th Anniversary Conference, "Central banking amidst shifting ground," jointly organized with the Bank for International Settlements in Bangkok, Thailand.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at an event organized by OK Diario in Madrid, Spain.

· Eurozone PPIs (October)

· Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Global Composite PMI (November)

· France Industrial Production (October), Budget Balance (October)

· Spain Unemployment Figures (November), Tourist Arrivals (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The UAE celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria’s Supreme Court to hold hearings into oil spills case involving Shell.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 3, 2022:

Global

· Today is the 30th anniversary of the first short message service (SMS) being sent over a mobile phone.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde chairs a roundtable discussion on "The global dimensions of policy normalization" at Bank of Thailand's 80th Anniversary Conference "Central banking amidst shifting ground" jointly organized with the Bank for International Settlements in Bangkok, Thailand.

· France S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 4, 2022:

Global

· The 33rd OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting is to be held in Vienna, Austria.

· Today is “National Francis Day,” celebrating all of us named Francis.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/25/22 Francis Kelly 11/25/22

A Great Time in Atlanta

I was tremendously privileged to speak this past week in Atlanta at the Advantax National Conference. Thank you, Advantax, for having me - a beautiful venue and a tremendous audience of 1,100 of some of the smartest financial advisors in the business. We covered a lot in our hour together: Russia’s war on Ukraine, China and the future of Indo-Asian security, the implications of the US elections, tax policy now and in the next few years, and the coming “Rise of the Regulators” in the final two years of President Biden’s first term in office. Thank you again, Advantax, for a great and very fun time!

Francis Kelly 11/20/22 Francis Kelly 11/20/22

The Global Week Ahead: November 20 - 27, 2022

Looking at the geopolitical calendar this week, it will be relatively quiet (it should be after all those international summits last week). We are watching two significant actions this week: The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th. While governments and markets have been anticipating this for several months, it may significantly impact Russia's economy and its ability to fund the War on Ukraine. Also, this week the European Parliament is likely to pass a resolution naming Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

The global economic reporting calendar is relatively quiet this week, in part because the US will quickly slide into an extended Thanksgiving holiday. But we will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday, and South Korea, South Africa, and Turkey will decide interest rates. Turkey is likely to be an outlier among the world's central banks as it is expected to cut rates by 15 basis points. And the OECD will be providing an update on their global economic outlook forecasts on Tuesday.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Global

· The World Cup begins in Doha, Qatar, and runs through December 18.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Inter-American Development Bank is expected to choose a new president. The previous president, Mauricio Claver-Carone, was fired in September for having an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate and rewarding her with large pay raises.

· US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

· Nepal holds national and provincial elections. It is the fourth election ever held since the abolition of the monarchy. But political instability has led to 13 different governments in the past 16 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017.

· It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a formal dinner of the European Round Table for Industry in Paris.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections.

· The leaders of Francophone African countries will gather for the Francophonie Summit in Djerba, Tunisia. French President Emmanuel Macron will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 21, 2022:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida, and associated individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities.

· The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is expected to release its Near East and North Africa - Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Vice President Kamala Harris arrives in the Philippines. She will meet with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. in Manila. And then tomorrow, travel to the Province of the Palawan Island to be briefed on the disputed South China Sea, where China has reclaimed and militarized islands to assert territorial control over the area. Harris had a brief impromptu sideline meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Cambodia this past week during the ASEAN Summit. Her visit to Palawan could raise tensions further with China as she is the highest-ranking US official to tour the island and its close proximity to the disputed Spratly Islands.

· President Biden hosts the traditional pardoning of the Thanksgiving Turkey at the White House.

· The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

· Chile’s trucking union to go on strike in the northern portion of the country over increasing security concerns. Chile has seen a significant uptick in cargo theft and assaults on drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives the keynote speech at the Orange County Business Council.

· US Chicago Fed National Activity Report (October)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (November)

· Thailand GDP (Q3)

· Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Account (Q3), Inflation Rate (October)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Italian government is set to approve a draft budget law for 2023, the first for new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meet in Brussels.

· EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, to discuss ongoing issues. She then meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez, and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a speech on the state of Germany’s economy at the Sueddeutsche Zeitung Economic Summit in Berlin.

· Berlin’s famous Weihnachtsmärkte (Christmas Markets) open across the city.

· The UK’s CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Annual Conference begins in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo gives remarks at a conference "La proposition de directive bancaire CRDVI et les relations Afrique – Europe" organized by A. Gauvin & Raji Avocats in Paris.

· Germany PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Figures (October)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya hosts the Democratic Republic of Congo Peace Talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to announce Malawi to be the first low-income country to receive funding through its food-shock window.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022:

Global

· The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

· The UN Security Council meets to discuss piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. The Gulf has become the leading region for global kidnappings at sea, accounting for 90 percent of the world total.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Vice President Kamala Harris to visit the Philippines’ Palawan Province to discuss maritime operations in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester gives opening remarks at the Bank’s “Wages and Inflation” Conference.

· US Redbook (November), Richmond Fed Services Index (November), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

· Canadian Central Bank Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers does a fireside chat at the Young Canadians in Finance Conference in Ottawa. She will give an assessment of the risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system.
Ottawa, Ontario

· Canada Retail Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October)

· Mexico Retail Sales (September)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

· Peru GDP(Q3)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Defense Ministers meet in Siem Reap, Cambodia. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, along with his counterparts from Japan and China, have also been invited to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

· Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe speech.

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Moscow. While there, both leaders will participate in the unveiling of a statue honoring late Cuban revolutionary dictator Fidel Castro.

· King Charles III hosts South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for a state visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)

· Eurozone Current Account (September), Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

· Poland Employment Growth (October), PPIs (October), Corporate Sector Wages (October)

· Italy Current Account (September)

· Ukraine Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (October), Money Supply (October)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Multiple South African Unions representing more than one million workers – including the civil servants union – will go on strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 23, 2022:

Global

· The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th. Here is a brief explanation of how the cap will likely work.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US FMOC Minutes released, MBA Mortgage Data (30-year rate, mortgage refinancing’s, purchase index), Building Permits (October), Durable Goods Orders (October), Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November), New Home Sales (October), Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (November)

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ottawa.

· Argentina Economic Activity (September)

· Panama IMAE Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (November)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (November)

· Indonesia M2 Supply (October)

· Philippines Budget Balance (October)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

· Singapore GDP (Q3), CPI (October)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

· New Zealand monetary policy announcement.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament will likely vote today on resolutions naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

· The European Parliament is expected to approve a new strategy for enlarging the bloc. This is likely to lead to the EU formally considering Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia becoming members of the EU.

· The UK’s Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to pass a referendum bill without the British Parliament’s approval. The Scottish Parliament is attempting to legislate approval of a second referendum on Scottish independence.

· Armenia will host the heads of state summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend, where discussions around international and regional security will be held. Putin has been attempting to negotiate a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and he may attempt to advance negotiations with sideline talks with the leaders of the two countries.

· The EU’s European Economic Area Council meets to discuss mutual economic issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organized by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates on a panel "El rol del consejo en la transformación" at XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organised by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

· UK S&P/CIPS Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

· Poland Retail Sales (October)

· Russia PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (October)

· Zambia Interest Rate Decision (October)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision (October)

Thursday, November 24, 2022:

Global

· Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (September)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (November), Federal Tax Revenues (October)

· Chile PPIs (October)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Mid-Month Inflation (November)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Interest Rate Decision (November), Leading Indicators (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh will host the Indian Ocean Rim Association Council of Ministers. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been invited to attend and while there is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PPIs (October), Coindicant Index (September)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (October)

· South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

· Singapore Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliament is expected to approve an €18 billion loan to Ukraine for 2023. Additionally, they are expected to pass a measure confirming that EU member states will not accept passports by Russia in illegally-occupied areas of Georgia and Ukraine.

· The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to seek a political agreement on better coordination of gas purchases, exchange of gas across borders, and reliable price benchmarks. They are also expected to seek political agreement on regulations laying out a temporary framework to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London, England.

· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a presentation of the 40th Board of Directors meeting of the European Savings and Retail Banking Group (ESRB) and the 19th ESBG General Assembly in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Analysis Forum in Milan, Italy.

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (November), IFO Current Conditions (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

· France Business Confidence (November)

· UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will meet with senior Indian officials to discuss a free trade agreement. The GCC is composed of six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. India and the UAE already have a bilateral free trade pact signed in May. Overall, India’s exports to the GCC increased by 58 percent in 2021-2022.

· Lebanon’s National Assembly will meet again to try to elect a president. It will be the seventh time the Assembly has sought to agree on a president. The Assembly is evenly split between Christians and Muslims, and whoever is chosen must get 2/3 of the vote. The Iranian-backed armed group, Hezbollah, is a major force in Lebanon’s politics, and they want a president who will allow them to further consolidate power in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bahrain Inflation Report (October)

· Kuwait Inflation Report (October)

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending (November), FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Business Confidence (November),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Business Confidence (Q4), Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

Ghana 2023 Budget

Zambia Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Press Briefing

Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q3)

Friday, November 25, 2022:

Global

· Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) hosts the Pacific Alliance Leaders’ Summit which will include the Presidents of Chile, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, and Columbia. The leaders are expected to discuss how to promote greater economic integration and possible free trade agreements. Additionally, AMLO intends to discuss how the attending nations can expert more power at the Organization of American States (OAS) which AMLO believes is subordinated to US interests. No representatives from the US or Canada have been invited. Additionally, the leaders are expected to discuss inviting Costa Rica as a member.

· “Black Friday” sales in the US, one of the biggest sales days in the US for retailers who offer special sales to “stay in the black” for the year.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A Hong Kong court will hand down a verdict over whether Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen and five other pro-democracy figures failed to register a legal fund with the police. Their arrests set off worldwide condemnation. The normal penalty for first-time offenders is HK $10,000.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India FX Reserves (November)

· Japan CPIs (November)

· Singapore GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (October)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November), GDP (Q3)

· Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Vietnam FDI report (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss development issues, specifically to follow up on the EU-African Union Summit (which took place in February 2022), and the EU response to the crisis in Ukraine and Afghanistan.

· The EU Extraordinary Justice and Home Affairs Council meets to discuss all migratory routes and issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the keynote speech at the European Society for Banking and Financial Law Italy annual conference in Milan, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos attends a presentation of the new book “"Política económica de la Segunda República. España en la Gran Depresión internacional" by Luis Peral Guerra in Madrid, Spain.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December), GDP Growth (Q3)

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

· France Consumer Confidence (November), Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)

· Hungary Unemployment Figures (October)

· Spain PPIs (October)

· Italy Business Confidence (November)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Financial Stability Report

· Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

· Eswatini Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, November 26, 2022:

Global

· Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Early voting begins in Georgia for the Senate run-off election being held on December 5th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan is set to hold elections for local positions ranging from mayors to village chiefs. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Party – which seeks better relations with Beijing – appears to be running strong in pre-election polls. Of particular note, the great-grandson of former Taiwan leader Ching Kai-shek and who is a member of the KMT, appears poised to win the Mayoral election in Taipei.

· Japan’s Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo will open to the public for the first time in three years to view the autumn foliage season.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK’s national rail union (Aslef) goes on strike over wages. The strike will impact 12 companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing of significance to report.

Sunday, November 27, 2022:

Global

· The First Day of Advent in the Gregorian Christian Calendar marking the start of the western church’s countdown to Christmas.

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The Global Week Ahead: December 4 - 11, 2022

Sunday, December 4, 2022:

Monday, December 5, 2022:

Tuesday, December 6, 2022:

Wednesday, December 7, 2022:

Thursday, December 8, 2022:

Friday, December 9, 2022:

Saturday, December 10, 2022:

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Recommended Weekend Reads: December 2-4, 2022

The Global Week Ahead: November 27- December 4, 2022

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Monday, November 28, 2022:

Tuesday, November 29, 2022:

Wednesday, November 30, 2022:

Thursday, December 1, 2022:

Friday, December 2, 2022:

Saturday, December 3, 2022:

Sunday, December 4, 2022:

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The Global Week Ahead: November 20 - 27, 2022

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Monday, November 21, 2022:

Tuesday, November 22, 2022:

Wednesday, November 23, 2022:

Thursday, November 24, 2022:

Friday, November 25, 2022:

Saturday, November 26, 2022:

Sunday, November 27, 2022:

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