The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022

Global diplomatic summitry – all being held in Southeast Asia – will dominate the geopolitical calendar this week.  It starts this weekend with the ASEAN Summit in Phenom Penh, Cambodia, and then moves to Bali, Indonesia, for the G20 Leaders’ Summit and then, later in the week, to Bangkok, Thailand, for the APEC Summit. 

At the G20, President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a closely watched set of sideline meetings aimed at “putting a floor” under US-China relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided not to attend either the ASEAN Summit or the G20 Summit in person but may attend via video link.  Later this week, the APEC Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, where regional leaders and a number of world leaders will gather again.  President Biden will not participate in APEC and is sending Vice President Kamala Harris in his stead.

On the global economic front, the announcement this past week out of Beijing of a shift in the Zero COVID policy has buoyed global markets. This came just as markets celebrated a weaker US CPI print suggesting peak inflation may have been reached.  This coming week, markets will keenly look at two key US economic reports for further hope of brighter economic days ahead: retail sales and housing figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 13, 2022 

Global

·       The COP27 Conference continues until November 18 in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       President Biden arrives in Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia following his attendance at the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The G20 runs through November 16. 

·       The US Congress returns for the Lame Duck session following last week’s midterm elections. The passage of the defense appropriations bill and raising the debt ceiling are the paramount issues for them to finish before adjourning in mid-December.  House and Senate Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections this week despite a number of races in both chambers uncalled and rising demand from with the respective caucus’ to put off the elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a discussion at the Australasia Conference in Sydney, Australia.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       The 17th Asia-Pacific Conference on German Business will be held (through November 14). German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz is scheduled to give a keynote speech on the 14th before going to Bali for the G20 Heads of States and Government Summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.

·       The second-round presidential ballot in Slovenia.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to form a new government following recent elections.

·       The Abu Dhabi Finance Week will take place through November 18.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Nigeria Economic Summit will begin in Abuja.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 14, 2022:

Global

·       The 17th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit formally begins in Bali, Indonesia, through November 16.  President Biden is scheduled to meet on the sidelines with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is expected to talk about a host of issues ranging from trade to Taiwan to human rights to Ukraine. The members of the G20 include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Spain is also invited as a permanent guest. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced he will not attend in person but may dial in via video.  

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss peacekeeping operations and Police Commissioners.  Then they will discussion the situation in the Central African Republic.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Helsinki Commission is expected to release a report in Washington, DC detailing Russia’s genocide in Ukraine.  The Commission – more formally known as the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe and is composed of members of the US Senate, House of Representatives, and the Executive Branch – will hold a press conference and panel discussion on their findings. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at the Bloomberg Economic Outlook event in Washington, DC.

·       Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India WPI Food (October), WPI Manufacturing (October), WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.

·       The UK’s BBC marks the 100th anniversary of its first radio broadcast.

·       King Charles III celebrates his 74th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       EBC Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel discussion at the opening conference (12:00 p.m. CET) of The 25th Euro Finance Week Conference in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing keynote speech (5:15 p.m. CET) at the 25th Euro Finance Week opening conference in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (September)

·       Poland Industrial Production ((September), Current Account (September)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Turkey Auto Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit starts in Abuja, Nigeria. The Summit will focus on national and regional economic development. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 15, 2022:

Global

·       The International Energy Agency releases the November Oil Market Report

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Former US President Donald Trump is expected to announce his intention to run again for president in 2024. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and Acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Martin Gruenberg testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators: A Strong Banking and Credit Union System for Main Street.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking Conference hosted by the Bank of Canada (a virtual event).

·       US PPIs (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), Redbook (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru GDP (Q3), Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Panama Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment Rate (October), Peoples’ Bank of China 1-Year MLF announcement

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       South Korea Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October)

·       Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

·       Thailand GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense Ministers) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.

·       UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly answers questions at a parliamentary committee on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

·       19th EU-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels. The Council will review key aspects of bilateral relations, including the follow-up to the initialing of the EU-Kyrgyz Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA).

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 25th Euro Finance Week Dinner hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (October), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November), ZEW Current Conditions (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (September), Claimant Count Change (October), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (October)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October), GDP (Q3)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Employment Change (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q3), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (October)

·       Bahrain Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The African Union hosts a conference on digital economy development in Harare, Zimbabwe.

·       Nigeria’s presidential election candidates’ debate.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

·       Botswana Inflation Data (October)

·       Rwanda Interest Rate Decision 

·       Namibia Inflation Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 16, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through November 18.  They are expected to talk about Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon and their lack of responsiveness to effort to negotiation. They could pass a resolution criticizing Tehran, which would be significant. They will also discuss North Korea’s nuclear weapon program, the situation in Ukraine, and other significant issues. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       NASA hopes to launch the Artemis I test flight mission around the moon from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  This is part of a larger NASA plan to build a permanent moon base to support a mission to Mars.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is hosting the 2022 US Treasury Market Conference.  Speakers include NY Fed President John Williams, Undersecretary of Treasury for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, and a number of other experts discussing the state of the Treasury market and possible reforms.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic “Oversight of Prudential Regulators: Ensuring the Safety, Soundness, Diversity, and Accountability of Depository Institutions.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the 59th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Phoenix, Ariz.

·       US Retail Sales (October), Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Business Inventories (September), Retail Inventories (September), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/Index/Purchases Index (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October), Housing Starts (October), CPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russia will host multilateral talks on Afghanistan in Moscow.  The meeting will include senior officials from China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China House Price Index (October), Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)

·       Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the European School in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the ABI’s Executive Committee meeting in Rome, Italy. 

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernández-Bollo gives remarks at VIII Jornado de Pensiones organized by Cino Días and Ibercaja in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Baily testifies before the Treasury Select Committee hearing on the November Monetary Policy Report.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a Speech at the Bristol Festival of Economics ‘What next for central banks’”.  

·       UK Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q3), Retail Price Index (October)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

·       Russia GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP Growth (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kenya hosts Congo peace talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Retail Sales (September)

·       Ghana PPIs (October) 

Thursday, November 17, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The 2022 Cato Institute Summit on Financial Regulation entitled “The Rise of ESG and the Future of Financial Regulation” in Washington DC. Several leading US regulators and industry leaders are expected to speak.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson speeches on “Opportunity and Inclusive Growth” at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute 2022 Institute Research Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Financial Literacy and Education Commission Public Meeting (virtual event)

·       US Housing Starts (October), Building Permits (October), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Initial Jobless claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders/Prices Paid Reports (November), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index and Composite Index (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (November), Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce his medium-term fiscal statement alongside new forecasts for the economy and public finances from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

·       NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly holds its annual session in Madrid, Spain.

·       British Princess Anne to visit the Falkland Islands. This will be the third visit by the Princess and will honor the war dead from the war with Argentina 40 years ago as well as the elevation of Stanley to city status.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       UK Fiscal Statement

·       Italy Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (October), Inflation Rate (October), Construction Output (September), CPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Lebanon to hold its sixth attempt to elect a president after former President Michel Aoun’s term expired on October 31.  The political vacuum is leading to a greater risk of a return to civil war.

·       The 4th Milken Institute Middle East and Africa Summit are held in Abu Dhabi. The theme of the Summit is “Celebrating the Power of Connection” and will focus heavily on digital issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Mozambique GDP (Q3) 

Friday, November 18, 2022: 

Global 

·       The COP27 Summit concludes in Egypt.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Existing House Sales (October), CB Leading Index (October)

·       Canada Raw Material Prices (October), Retail Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October), PPIs (October)

·       Peru Current Account (Q3)

·       Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, and go through November 19.  There are 21 member countries attending, and the theme of the conference is “Open. Connect. Balance.” Neither President Biden nor Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, but Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in place of President Biden.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India Deposit Growth (Week of November 4), FX Reserves (November), Bank Loan Growth (Week of November 4)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU General Council meets to prepare for the European Council meeting on 15-16 December 16, 2022.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 32nd Frankfurt European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       France Unemployment Rate (Q3)

·       UK Retail Sales (October)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Uzbekistan to host the EU-Central Asia Connectivity Conference in Samarkand.

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its annual IISS Manama Dialogue 2022 in Bahrain. EU President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to speak. The Dialogue will feature a large number of regional and US, and EU officials.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Building Permits (September), S&P Rating Assessment released.

Saturday, November 19, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Canada CPIs (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Malaysia holds legislative elections to elect a new Prime Minister. This will be the fourth Prime Minister in the last two years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       Monaco celebrates National Day.

·       The 2021 Rugby League World Cup (men’s and women’s) finals are held in Manchester, UK.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, November 20, 2022:

Global

·       The World Cup begins in Qatar and runs through December 18. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

·       Nepal holds national and provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017. 

·       It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022

We are down to the last 72 hours before the  US mid-term elections on Tuesday.  Polls suggest Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives, while which party will win control of the Senate is too close to call (our view is Republicans will win control of the Senate, too – perhaps by a three-seat majority). 

Internationally, COP27 begins in Egypt, and leaders from around the world will converge in Sharm El-Sheikh to debate how to further push forward on global climate protocols.  But, more controversially, we expect the debate to begin on paying compensation and reparations for climate damage to certain countries.  Also, this week, the ASEAN Leaders Summit begins in Cambodia and will serve as a prelude for the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali the following week.  And the G20 is shaping up to be quite a meeting as Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi, US President Biden and even Ukraine President Zelensky (virtually)  are expected to attend

Markets this week will be at highly focused on consumer price index and producer price index updates from the US, China, Germany, and Japan.  They will also be looking at the UK’s GDP figures on Friday to get a clearer picture of how bad the recession might be there.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, November 6, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nation’s 2022 Climate Change (COP27) Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.  The Conference, which runs through November 18th, will be seeking to build off the Glasgow, Scotland conference held in 2021 and seek to accelerate global climate action on emissions reduction and enhance flows of the appropriate financing to reach those goals. A large number of world leaders are expected to attend.  Among the other issues, they will discuss will be the potentially politically controversial issue of compensation and reparations for climate damage.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 7, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria's chemical weapons). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a Troop Contributing countries meeting on the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Central African Republic and then on the meeting of Troop Contributing Countries serving in South Sudan.

·       The UN is hosting in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, the 7th International Conference on Big Data and Data Science for Official Statistics.  An estimated  2,000 data scientists and statisticians from more than 70 counties will compete in the 2022 UN Big Data Hackathon (November 8-11) as part of the Conference. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador begins taking its national census.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Central Bank Market Readout

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (October), Auto Production (October), Auto Exports (October)

·       Chile Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to Moscow for bilateral meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other senior Russian officials.  They are expected to discuss bilateral trade issues.  In particular, India is concerned about grain and sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia, which have been put at risk by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), FX Reserves (October)

·       Japan Household Spending (September), Average Cash Earnings (October), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, FX Reserves (October),

·       Indonesia GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October), Ai Group Services Index (October)

·       South Korea Current Account (September)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (October)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (October), Unemployment Rate (September), Industrial Production (September)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets to discuss economic developments and the outlook for the euro area.  They will also discuss measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices as well as the draft EU budgetary plans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at a joint European Commission/ECB Conference entitled “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital Europe for citizens and businesses”

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion at a joint European Commission/ECB Conference entitled “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital Europe for citizens and businesses”

·       Germany Industrial Production (September), S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (October), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (October), BBA Mortgage Rate (October)

·       France FX Reserves (October), S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (October), FX Reserves (October)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (September), Composite Economic Index (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (October)

·       Mauritius FX Reserves (October) 

Tuesday, November 8, 2022:

Global

·       A total Lunar Eclipse to occur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US mid-term elections are held today.  All US House of Representatives seats and 33 US Senate seats are up for election, plus numerous governors’ seats and state legislative seats.  As of Sunday evening, more than 40 million Americans have already voted, which is a new record for early voting. In the state of Georgia, 2.3 million have already voted (out of a population of 10.8 million),  a new state record.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (October), Redbook (November), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November)

·       Brazil Car Production (October), New Car Registrations (October)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (September)

·       Chile Inflation Figures (October), Imports (October)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 40th and 41st ASEAN Summit is held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       The 14th installment of the Airshow China takes place in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China, through November 13th. The event will include both domestic and foreign manufacturers, including Airbus and GE.  China is expected to show off its heavy military transport aircraft, the Y-20, and anti-drone systems.

·       The 24th Nikkei Global Management Forum takes place in Tokyo through Wednesday.  Leading global CEOs are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October),

·       Japan Economic Leading Index (September), Reuters Tankan Index (November), Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November), NAB Consumer Confidence Change (November), Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss Basel II regulation, taxation of trucks, and the economic and financial impact of the war in Ukraine.

·       Germany’s largest union, IG Metal Kueste, expected to continue warning strikes in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg in advance of negotiations over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFNI meetings in Brussels.

·       ECB Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the Bundesbank Symposium “Banking Supervision in Dialogue” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Current Account (September), Retail Sales (September)

·       Italy Retail Sales (September)

·       Eurozone Retail Sales (September)

·       Russia Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, Vehicle Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Ankara, Turkey. They will discuss Sweden’s accession to NATO and Turkey’s accusation that Sweden is harboring Kurdish terrorists.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Budget Balance (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana’s Parliament is expected to begin debating a motion to remove Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta.  Ghana is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with inflation near 38 percent and the currency falling 20 percent against the dollar.  Half of the government’s revenues now go to paying interest payments the country is seeing a deal with the IMF to help stabilize the economy.  Protests have also broken out in the capital, Accra, as citizen demand President Nana Akufo-Addo also step down.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation (October)

·       Mauritius Inflation (October)

·       Seychelles Inflation (October) 

Wednesday, November 9, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the UN peacekeeping mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (November), Wholesale Inventories (September), WASDE Report

·       Brazil Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (October)

·       Australia Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Philippines GDP Growth (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish proposals for changing EU fiscal rules to make them more realistic given the high public debt after COVID.

·       Brussels International Airport is expected to be hit by a labor strike that may shut the airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Member Frank Elderson participates in an online panel organized by the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association at the COP17 Conference.

·       ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (September)

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (October)

·       Russia FX Reserves (October), Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 10, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a debate on “Threats to international peace and security: Counter-terrorism in Africa”

·       The Chair of the UN Security Council will rotate to Ghanaian President Nana Afufo-Addo taking the helm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Chamber of Commerce hosts the Transatlantic Business Works Summit in Washington, DC.  The Summit brings together a number of EU leaders, including Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte and senior officials from the Biden Administration as well a large number of US and EU-based CEOs.

·       The Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City will host their 7th joint energy conference, “Energy and the Economy: the New Energy Landscape,” in Houston, Texas. NASA. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch the Joint Polar Satellite System-2 for extreme weather monitoring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Inflation Rate (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) begins the 38th and 39th Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will pass the chairmanship to Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.   US President Bide, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend.  Also, both Spain and Ukraine will sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia, which governs interstate relations in the region. 

·       Japan and US military forces to start “Keen Sword” exercises in Japan.  Australia, Canada, and the UK will also participate in the naval and air force exercises.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will discuss central bank digital currencies at a Queensland University of Technology event in Brisbane, Australia.

·       China Vehicle Sales (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the BusinessEurope CEOs Dialogue 2022 in Brussels.

·       London’s Underground and Overground employees are expected to hold a one-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Member Andreas Enria participates in a fireside chat organized by De Nederlandsche Bank.

·       ECB Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a roundtable discussion at the Bank of Slovenia

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

·       Turkey Unemployment Figures (September), FX Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (September), Gold Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

·       Rwanda Inflation Rate (October)

Friday, November 11, 2022:

Global

·       The UN is sponsoring the Global conference on Macroeconomic Statistics for the Future, which will be organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and Eurostat.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will attend the COP27 Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.

·       The US observes Veterans Day, a federal holiday.

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will travel to New Delhi, India, to participate in the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (November), Michigan Current Conditions (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (September)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (November)

·       Chile Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds Singles’ Day, the largest annual shopping festival in the country. However, Zero COVID restrictions are expected to significantly impact the event.

·       Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s protest march is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad.  However, since Khan was shot earlier this week at a rally, this event is likely to be delayed.

·       Australia observes Remembrance Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September)

·       Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to reach an agreement on the 2023 EU budget with the EU Parliament. 

·       The Paris Peace Forum, with this year’s theme “Riding Out the Multicrisis,” is held through November 12th.

·       Armistice Day in Europe commemorating the end of World War I.

·       Poland celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Member Fabio Panetta gives a lunch talk at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.

·       ECB Member Philip Lane participates in a policy panel at the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)

·       UK GDP (Q3), Goods Trade Balance Figures (September), Balance of Trade (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Construction Output (September), Construction Orders (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Retail Sales (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, November 12, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden attends the US-ASEAN Summit and the 17th East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Both run through November 13th.

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will attend the G20 Joint Finance and Health Ministers’ Meeting in Bali, Indonesia.  She will also accompany President Biden at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali on November 15/16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Vietnam and Singapore to discuss trade through November 14th.

·       The UK’s Royal Mail staff continue their walkout over pay and terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain Council on Representatives (parliament) election.  All 40 members are up for election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 13, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden attends the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia through November 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.

·       Second round presidential ballot in Slovenia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: October 30 - November 6, 2022:

A week ago, the Chinese Communist Party Congress ended, and, not liking what they heard, the markets reacted quite negatively. This coming week, markets should pay attention to three events in China.  First, we will be watching the Global Financial Leaders Summit in Hong Kong on Monday, where the CEOs from a number of leading Wall Street firms will speak. The Hong Kong government is hosting the event to showcase the city as still being a leading financial center in Asia.  Second, on Thursday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz will lead a delegation of leading German CEOs for a one-day set of meetings to discuss greater investment opportunities in China.  And third, on Saturday, Shanghai will host the China International Import Expo, where more than 3,000 companies from over 100 nations will gather to market new products and explore ways of expanding further into the Chinese market.  We will be listening closely for any messaging around these three events coming from Beijing that might suggest a softer line toward foreign investment and engagement in the global markets.

Also this week, the UN's COP27 Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on Sunday, where we are likely to see one of the more controversial policy proposals around climate change brought up for debate: The payment of compensation and reparations for climate damage. 

Meanwhile, markets will closely watch the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. While most observers expect a 75-basis point hike in rates, they are looking for clues as to whether the Fed is on course for a similar hike in December or if they will scale back to 50- basis points. The Bank of England also meets to decide on a likely rate increase this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 30, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro suggesting a statistical tie. Other polls suggest Lula is up by five points but down from the 15 point lead he had several months ago. In the first round, Luka won 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro won 43.2 percent.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will visit Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi (through November 2nd). Trong will be the first foreign leader to visit Xi in his third term begins. China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner and key source of raw materials. They are also expected to discussion ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the future of Taiwan.

• Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.

• Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• ECB Member Philip Lane gives a speech at Danmark’s Nationalbank Conference in Copenhagen.

• Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).

• European Daylight Savings Time ends.

• Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Unemployment Rate (September)

• Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (September) M3 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 31, 2022:

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency hosts a Symposium on International Safeguards in Vienna, Austria.

• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its 2022 World Oil Outlook.

• The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Threats to International Peace and Security.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• The US and EU are set to meet sometime this week – date still to be announced – to try and settle a growing trade dispute over domestic manufacturing requirements for electric vehicle batteries. Both the US and EU have established task forces to work on the matter. France and Germany have threatened trade retaliation measures against the US subsidies which give a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles equipped with batteries manufactured in North America and use minerals mined or recycled in the region.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Chicago PMI (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)

• Mexico GDP (Q3)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• South Korea and the United States will begin five days of combined air drills called “Vigilant Storm” in South Korea.

• Hong Kong hosts the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit. Leading US financial CEOs will attend the three-day event and give speeches. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will give welcoming remarks at the conference which is aimed at shoring up Hong Kong’s standing as a leading financial center in Asia.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMIs (October)

• India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (October)

• Japan Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September), Construction Orders (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

• Singapore Business Confidence (Q3)

• Thailand Current Account (September)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Russian President Putin will host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for trilateral talks in Sochi, Russia. Putin – following efforts by the EU – is seeking to broker a peace deal between the two nations.

• The UK’s National Education Unions hold a ballot over whether to go on strike for better wages.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)

• UK BOE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Lending (September), National Housing Prices (October)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

• Poland Inflation Rate (October)

• Spain Retails Sales (October), Current Account (August)

• Italy GDP (Q3)

• Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company hosts the Adipec Conference in Abu Dhabi where OPEC representatives and oil executives will be in attendance. The conference runs through November 3rd.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Private Sector Credit (September), M3 Money Supply (September), Balance of Trade (September)

• Kenya Inflation Figures (October)

• Uganda Inflation Figures (October)

Tuesday, November 1, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rate increases (a 75-basis point increase is expected), Redbook (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTS Job Figures (September), Construction Spending (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (October), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current (October)

• Peru Inflation Rate (October)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Industrial Production (September), China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Exports (September), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• China’s space agency is scheduled to launch the last of three modules that comprise the Tiangong Space Station.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

• India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(October)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation Rate (October)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Commodity Prices (October)

• Pakistan Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will visit Japan (through November 3rd). After visiting Japan, Steinmeier will travel to South Korea for meetings with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and other senior officials.

• Denmark to hold early general elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Switzerland Consumer Confidence (Q4) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Russia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Israel holds general elections, its fifth parliamentary elections in less than four years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Industrial Production (August)

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Manufacturing PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• The Arab League holds a summit in Algiers. UN Secretary General António Guterres will give opening remarks. But a number of regional leaders – including Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Presidents of the UAE and Lebanon, the Emir of Kuwait, and the King of Bahrain, and the Sultan of Oman, are not planning on attending which will significantly impact the impact of the summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October), total New Vehicle Sales (October)

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

Wednesday, November 2, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, MBA Mortgage Reports (October), ADP Employment Change (October)

• Chile IMACEC Economy Activity (September)

• Mexico FX Reserves (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to visit China for meetings with Chinese President Xi. Sharif will express Pakistan’s gratitude for China’s $88 million in relief aid following the recent massive flooding in the country. He is also expected to ask for debt relief on $6.3 billion of debt the country owes China as part of its involvement in China’s Belt & Road Initiative.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• India M3 Money Supply (October)

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index (October), Building Permits (September), Reserve Bank Chart Pack, S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October), Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)

• Thailand Business Confidence (October)

• Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• France Budget Balance (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October)

• Russia's Unemployment Rate (September), Real Wage Growth (August), Business Confidence (October), Retail Sales (September), GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (September), Interest Rate Decision

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (September), Composite Economic Index (September)

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan to visit China through November 4th. She will meet with President Xi and other senior Chinese officials and is expected to sign bilateral agricultural and infrastructure investment deals with China.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, November 3, 2022:

Global

• G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Munster, Germany to discuss Ukraine and China (through November 4th).

• Pope Francis travels to Bahrain to participate in the Bahrain Forum for Dialogue (through November 6th)

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), Unit Labor Costs (Q3), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (October), S&P Global Composite/Services/Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October), Factory Orders (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices/New Orders/Employment/Business Activity Reports (October), Total Vehicle Sales (October)

• Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Building Permits (September)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan celebrates Culture Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• India S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (October)

• Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, Ai Group Construction Index (October)

• Indonesia GD Growth Rate (Q3), FX Reserves (October)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to visit China for quick set of meetings with President Xi. Scholz will be accompanied by a German business delegation seeking new deals with China. Among those in the delegation are the CEOs of BASF, Bayer, Merck, BMW, BioNTech, Deutsche Bank, and Siemens. The meetings are only for one day due to strict COVID restrictions in China.

• EU President von der Leyen will participate in the Berlin Process Summit for the Western Balkans. The summit is seeking to help facilitate negotiations on a Common Regional Market as well as address issues such as the green agenda, climate, energy, and energy security for the region. Later that day, von der Leyden will return to Brussels to meet the newly elected Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni.

• UK’s Royal Mail staff begin a strike over better wages.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Bank of England interest rate decision and monetary policy report, S&P/CIPS UK Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an introductory panel at Latvijas Banka Economic Conference in Riga, Latvia.

• ECB Member Fabio Panetta gives the keynote speech at the ECB Money Market Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial Services Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (September)

• Spain Unemployment Change (October)

• Italy Unemployment Rate (September)

• Russia S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (October)

• Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• The UAE celebrates its 10th Flag Day (which indicates a growing shift to a national framework and away from a religious/tribal identity).

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

• Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (October)

• Turkey Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October), PPIs (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (October)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa S&P Global PMI (October), Electricity Consumption/Production Figures (September)

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

• Uganda PMIs (October)

• Kenya PMIs (October)

• Zambia PMIs (October)

• Ghana PMIs (October)

Friday, November 4, 2022:

Global 

• UN’s Food and Agriculture Organizations Food Price Index (October) is published which will give us a clear sense of food inflation globally and risks to food security going forward.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Unemployment Figures (October)

• Canada Unemployment Figures (October), Ivey PMIs (October)

• Peru Balance of Trade (September)

• Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Colombia PPIs (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October), Deposit Growth (October)

• Taiwan Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Singapore Retail Sales (September)

• Thailand Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the opening lecture on monetary policy in the Euro Area hosted by the Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

• ECB Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Energy Prospectives series hosted by Naturgy Foundation and IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

• ECB Member Andrea Enria gives remarks at the Cumberland Lodge Financial Services Summit in Windsor, UK.

• Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), PPIs (September)

• Germany Factory Orders (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), New Car Registrations (October)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services and Composite PMIs (October), New Car Sales (October)

• France Industrial Production (September), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Spain Industrial Production (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Italy S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Switzerland FX Reserves (October)

• Poland

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to visit Turkey for meetings with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Sweden’s and Finland’s joining the alliance. Erdogan is threatening again to hold up the membership of both countries due to his belief both countries are “providing shelter to outlawed Kurdish militants” Turkey considers to be terrorists.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, November 5, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Colombia Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The China International Import Expo begins in Shanghai. The six-day event is expected to draw 3,000 foreign companies from over 100 countries who are seeking to broaden their sales into China.

• Malaysia’s Election Commission holds nominations for 222 parliamentary constituencies in advance of the November 19th federal elections. 14 days of official campaigning commences tomorrow (November 6th)

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• UK’s National Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers Union (RMT) go a day-long strike for a second time for better wages. They are expected to strike again on November 7th.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 6, 2022:

Global

• The United Nation’s 2022 Climate Change (COP27) Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The Conference will be seeking to build off the Glasgow, Scotland conference held in 2021 and seek to accelerate global climate action on emissions reduction and enhance flows of appropriate financing to reach those goals. They are also expected to touch on the potentially politically controversial issue of compensation and reparations for climate damage.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

The Disappearance of Key Economic Data from China

Last week, markets were surprised Beijing temporarily suspended the scheduled publication of GDP figures. Most observers believed they did not want the number to cloud the ongoing Communist Party Congress and crowning of President Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term. But the reality is this has been an ongoing trend for quite some time under President Xi. The Financial Times published a great chart today showing just how much is no longer made available. Markets need to get used to this great disappearing act - it is likely only going to get worse.

Assessing Three Current Geopolitical Risks

Saudi Arabia and NOPEC, Taiwan Invasion Risk, and Russia Using a Dirty Bomb

We have received a lot of questions about many geopolitical issues in the last 72 hours. While China risk in the wake of the Chinese Communist Party Congress tops the list – and we are preparing a separate analysis on that issue – we thought it worthwhile to give a quick assessment of Saudi Arabia/NOPEC, Taiwan invasion risk, and the situation in Ukraine. 

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Saudi Arabia and Risk of Congress Passing NOPEC:

• We see the prospects of the US Congress passing NOPEC legislation as minimal. The Biden White House will oppose it, as will a pretty strong bipartisan majority.

• Biden intends at this point to consult with Congress after the elections on Saudi relations and possible policy options in retaliation for the recent OPEC+ decision.

• However, we believe there is likely to be little substantively done, and the risk is more in the “headline risk” category (e.g., “White House orders review of US military deployments in the Middle East” or “White House reviewing military sales to Saudi Arabia”). To be clear, we do not believe there will be any real/substantive cut-back on US military deployment in the Middle East or noticeable/substantive cut-back in military sales to Saudi.

• We also would point out that Israel is already making clear to the White House and key US congressional allies that Saudi is an increasingly important security tie/ally in the region and does not want to see any further deterioration in US-Saudi relations.

• The real risk is if the US does nothing in response to the OPEC+ decision, according to US sources we have spoken to, it may encourage Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) to do other things that are not in the US’s strategic interests.

Taiwan Invasion Risk:

• Two recent headlines have prompted markets to ramp up concern over a possible invasion of Taiwan – 1) Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s comments at Stanford University earlier this week and 2) US Navy Chief of Naval Operations Michael Gilday suggesting an invasion could happen as soon as this year.

• We cross-checked both supposed comments and found both are being taken out of context and poorly reported by the media. First, Blinken’s office tells us he did not say an invasion was imminent or close to imminent. Blinken sat for a ‘fireside chat’ with former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at Stanford.  You can read the entire transcript, including questions from the audience HERE.  Here is what Blinken said: 

“What’s changed is this – it goes back to something that Condi was saying at the very beginning – there has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years.  And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline. And if peaceful means didn’t work, then it would employ coercive means – and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means – to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions.”

•  Second, Admiral Gilday’s comments were as follows: “What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it,” Gilday said. “When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window; I can’t rule it out.”

• Admiral Gilday – as any military leader worth their salt, he/she would never rule anything out and must plan for all contingencies. Additionally, we would note we are in the midst of an intense debate on Capitol Hill over defense spending.  

• Our view is that Chinese President Xi Jinping will take, as a matter of policy going forward, a tougher verbal stance against Taiwan than before US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) recent controversial visit to Taiwan. Beijing will seek to leverage the current state of relations permanently – but that does not mean invasion is imminent. 

• How will we know if China is preparing to invade Taiwan? We would point to this excellent analysis by the former CIA Chief China Analyst on what to look for if in fact China were preparing to invade Taiwan:   https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053  

• After reading this piece, you can see none of the “trip wires” that would necessarily be tripped by China on the way to invasion have been tripped.

Russia/Ukraine and the Use of a Dirty Bomb:

• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has had two extraordinary phone conversations in the last three days with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. 

• Austin and Shoigu last spoke a few months ago (although there have been constant back-channel communications via two other nations).

• The purpose of the second call (Pentagon statement HERE) was to rebut growing Russian chatter of Ukraine using a dirty bomb – an almost certain “false flag” operation where Russian Forces would detonate a dirty bomb and blame it on Ukraine. A dirty bomb would be small – even the size of a suitcase – and would spew radioactive or biological (highly unstable and hard to use) or chemical materials.

• Shoigu pressed Austin on the claim that it is Ukraine and not Russia that is preparing to use a dirty bomb – as he did in separate calls with the French and Turkish Defense Minister. 

• Using a dirty bomb - and other forms of “asymmetric warfare” would fall into the risks we have previously outlined as Putin increasingly is backed into a corner by poor military execution of the war. A good example is the four holes blown in Nord Stream I & II. Other concerns to Western security officials are:

- Blowing underwater transatlantic communication cables between the Western Hemisphere and Europe, Africa, and the Middle East (they are unguarded. See the attached note to a possible Russian effort to do this back in January 2022);

- Attacks on commercial and government/military satellites;

- Additional attacks on oil/gas pipelines virtually anywhere in the world that are used to supply Europe;

- Sabotaging the global food supply chain: By cutting off grain/fertilizer exports from Ukraine and limiting what is sold by Russia, the impact would be felt hardest in the Middle East and Africa and could potentially set off a mass-migration event toward Europe in the spring of 2023. 

• Concerning the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Biden Administration continues to believe the risk remains fairly low. What would Russia hit? There are no massed Ukrainian military forces, only large civilian centers. We would note Putin was warned by Chinese President Xi at the Shanghai Organization meeting in Uzbekistan last month that using tactical nuclear weapons would result in China no longer being able to assist Russia and would force Beijing to join the rest of the world in strongly condemning Putin.

• Aside from the risk of deploying a dirty bomb – which would have limited geographical reach but cause mass hysteria among troops and civilian populations – we continue to believe there is a greater chance of Putin using chemical weapons. Russia managed and deployed chemical weapons in Syria for the Assad Regime. It has been documented that there were more than 60 chemical attacks between 2014-2020, all done with the direct assistance of Russian chemical weapons specialists (see Arms Control Association’s Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity 2012-2022). Most of these were chlorine attacks – lethal but also able to quickly dissipate, leaving little evidence.  

The Global Week Ahead: October 23 - 30, 2022

Perhaps the most significant event to watch this week is not a traditional calendar item:  Will Ukrainian forces capture Kherson from Russian invaders, and what will this mean for the future of the war in Ukraine?  We will be watching what happens there closely.  Also this week, we will be watching the “Davos in the Desert” – Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, which begins Tuesday and will draw some of the world’s most prominent business leaders and political leaders.  The meeting comes amidst heightened tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia but will still likely draw many top US business leaders.  Finally, Brazil will hold its hotly contested presidential run-off election next Sunday. Polls suggest it will be a close outcome and, at this point, might be too close to call.

On the economic front this week, China is expected to release a host of key economic reports, but markets will be holding their breath to see if that happens after Beijing unexpectedly suspended the release of GDP data last week.  Meanwhile, markets will be watching US GDP and initial unemployment figures to better understand the risk of a recession. Markets are already watching the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan closely as they deliberate interest rate decisions.  We would also note that this week Russia’s central bank will decide whether to raise rates - an indicator of how impactful sanctions have or have not been on the country.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The National Congress of the Communist Party of China concludes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Jibun Bank’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Italy’s new government led by Giorgia Meloni (who is expected to become Italy’s first female Prime Minister) is sworn into office.

• A delegation of German parliamentarians (the second in recent weeks) travels to Taiwan (through October 26th).

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Egypt holds the Egyptian Economic Conference looking at Egypt’s economic challenges and opportunities.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, October 24, 2022:

Global

• Today is United Nations Day as well as World Development Information Day.

• The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s security mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman travels to Japan for high-level talks with her Japanese and South Korean counterparts to discuss Russia and North Korea.

• The US Congress remains out of session until November 14th. There are 15 days until the mid-term elections November 8th.

• The US Securities industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) holds its annual meeting in New York. SEC Chair Gary Gensler, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are scheduled to speak.

• A criminal tax-fraud case against the Trump Organization begins in New York.

• Ontario holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (September)

• Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (August & September), FDI (September)

• Chile PPIs (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan’s Cultural Affairs Agency will hold an expert panel meeting on the Unification Church operations in Japan. The Church is now formally known as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification. This goes to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was killed by someone who was upset by the Unification Church and its relationship with the ruling Liberal Party.

• Sri Lanka celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industry Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), House Price Index (September)

• Japan Jibun Bank Services/Composite/Manufacturing PMIs (October)

• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

• Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• EU environmental ministers will seek to approve the EU’s general negotiating mandate for the upcoming UNZ Climate Change Conference and Biological Diversity Conference (COP27 and COP15, respectively).

• The European Union Military Committee’s Chiefs of Defense meeting (through the 25th)

• Russia’s Valdai Discussion Club, a think tank, holds its 19th Annual Meeting in Moscow. Entitled “A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone,” it will have more than 100 experts, politicians, economists, and diplomats from 41 countries speaking. Russian President Putin will address the meeting on Thursday.

·         EU President Delivers a speech at the Global Grand Challenges Annual Meeting 2022 hosted by the European Commission and the Global Grand Challenges

• The UK’s Unite the Union, which are made up of port operatives, maintenance engineers, and control room workers at Liverpool’s docks, begin a two week strike over pay.

• The UK’s CWU (communications workers) at BT Group and Openreach – including emergency 999 call handlers – go on strike over pay.

• The UK’s GMB union, which represents ambulance workers votes over whether to go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• France S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Inflation Expectation (September)

• Qatar Total Credit Growth (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (September)

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (September) 

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• South Africa will host peace talks between Ethiopia and rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

• Zambia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for a briefing and consultations on the Middle East, including Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• In one of the most closely watched US Senate races, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) will debate Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz (R).

• Grenada celebrates Thanksgiving, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Redbook (October), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (August), House Price Index (August), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments, Richmond Fed Services Index (October),

• Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FGV Consumer Confidence (October), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October)

• Mexico Economic Activity (August)

• Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Taiwan hosts the 11th Global Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy. More than 70 countries will participate (through October 27th). The event will be kicked off with a conversation between Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and Ukraine’s Parliamentary Foreign Policy Chair Oleksandr Merezhko.

• Kazakhstan marks Republic Day, celebrating their independence from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China FDI ((September)

• Indonesia FDI (Q3)

• Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

• Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

• Singapore CPI (September), Core Inflation Rate (September) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU’s Transport, Transportation and Energy Council meets in Brussels to discuss the latest emergency package.

• President von der Leyen, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, co-hosts the International Expert Conference on the Recovery, Reconstruction and Modernization of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

• UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

• Spain PPIs (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Saudi Arabia hosts its annual Investment Conference in Riyadh. Known as the “Davos in the Desert,” The Future Investment Initiative will see many leading Wall Street CEOs and other global CEOs attend despite the heightened tensions between the US and the Kingdom. You can find the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

• Turkey Business Confidence (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

• Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

• Australia Federal Budget presented. It is the first budget to be presented by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August) 

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Washington, DC for the International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century.

• The Financial Times holds its Moral Money Summit Americas in New York. UN Special Envoy on Climate Action Mark Carney will speak.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds “The Asia Architecture Conference 2022.” Numerous senior US and Asian officials and business leaders are expected to watch.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• USA MBA Mortgage Indexes (October), New Home Sales (September), Building Permits (September), Goods Trade Balance (September), Retail Inventories/Wholesale Inventories (September)

• Canada Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and press conference

• Colombia Business Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds a two-day annual meeting. The Beijing headquartered multilateral lender has a membership of 105 countries.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Leading Economic Index (August), Coincident Index (August)

• Singapore Industrial Production (September)

• South Korea Business Confidence (October)

• Australia Inflation Rate (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), RBA CPIs (Q3) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• France Consumer Confidence (October), Employment Figures (September)

• Eurozone Loans to Households (September), Loans to Companies (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Russia Industrial Production (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Zimbabwe’s ruling party will begin a Congress to choose party leaders for the 2023 election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa 2022 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement

Thursday, October 27, 2022:

Global

• The UN Security Council holds a vote on Colombia and the UN mission in the Western Sahara.

• The G-20 Health Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez will appear at a court hearing in New York for drug trafficking charges he is facing.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3), Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (October)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (September), Bank Lending Rate (September), Net Payrolls (September)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Industrial Profits (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

• South Korea GDP (Q3)

• Australia Export/Imports Prices (Q3)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Vietnam FDI (October)

• Thailand Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• In the UK, the Royal British Legion launches its annual poppy appeal ahead of the remembrance of Armistice Day and Remembrance Day Sunday next month.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The ECB is expected to raise rates 75 basis points.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), Bavaria CPIs (October), Brandenburg CPIs (October)

• Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sales (August)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (October)

• Spain Unemployment Rate (Q3)

• Russia Corporate Profits (August), Business Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Lebanon and Israel will formally sign a historic maritime border demarcation deal, allowing both nations to drill for off-short natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Manufacturing PMIs (September)

• Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, Economic Confidence Index (October), Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3), FX Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa PPIs (September)

Friday, October 28, 2022:

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes on hold an open debate on issues in the Middle East. They will also hold votes on the UN peacekeeping missions in Somalia and Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• 60th Anniversary of the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Personal Income/Personal Spending (September), PCE Price Index (September), Michigan Consumer Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (October)

• Canada GDP (August), Budget Balance (August)

• Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Colombia Central Bank Interest Decision, Cement Productions (September)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan is expected to Cabinet approval for a new economic stimulus spending plan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & Quarterly Outlook Report and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko press conference, Unemployment Rate (September), CPIs (October)

• India FX Reserves (October)

• Australia PPIs (Q3)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment Rate (Q3)

• Vietnam Retail Sales (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation Rate (October0, Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• UK’s Conservative Party will elect a replacement for recently resigned Prime Minister Liz Truss.

• Deadline for the formation of a power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. If an agreement cannot be reached, the UK’s Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is expected to call an Assembly election.

• The Czech Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany GDP ((Q3), Inflation Rate (October), North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October), Hesse CPI (October), Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October), Saxony CPI (October)

• France GDP Growth (Q3), PPIs (September), Household Consumption (September), Inflation Rate (October)

• Spain GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

• Italy PPIs (September), Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

• Poland Inflation Rate (October)

• UK Insolvency Figures (September)

• Eurozone’s Economic Sentiment/Industrial /Consumer Sentiment Reports (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

• ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 29, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Slovakia holds municipal and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 30, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, suggesting a statistical tie.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.

• Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).

• European Daylight Savings Time ends.

• Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Unemployment Rate (September)

• South Africa Private Bank Lending (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report

The Global Week Ahead: October 16-23, 2022

The markets will be paying close attention to China historic 20th National Congress of the Communist Party where President Xi Jinping will be handed an unprecedented third term in office.  But we expect there will be much more important announcements coming during the course of the week as Xi steers China into a new direction politically, socially, and economically. 

We will also be watching a number of major EU meetings this week focused on how the EU deals with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, its impact on Europe’s economy, and how best to mitigate the impact.  Russia continues to suffer significant losses to Ukrainian Forces and concerns about what Russian President Putin might do via asymmetric warfare mount.  In the United States, Washington is fairly quiet as we are 22 days away from the mid-term elections.

Economically, we expect it to be another tough week for economic data globally. Inflation data will be coming out from a number of leading nations.  In particular,  China will be releasing a host of key data reports this week.  But markets may be watching most intensely data coming out of the UK giving a deeper sense of overall economy and inflation. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       The UN World Health Summit 2022 begins in Berlin (through October 18th)

·       The UN observes World Food Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s two presidential candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, participate in a televised debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

·       The 28th Public Works Minister Meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be held through Oct. 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September), PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 17, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The UN Development Program launches the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index looking at the diversity of poverty and reveals new patters that can help target development efforts worldwide.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the election.  They are expected to resume work on November 14th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Peru Unemployment Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (August), Tertiary Industry Index (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Industrial Production (September)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore Balance of Trade

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to approve a monitoring mission of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange views on the Russian war on Ukraine.  They will also discuss issues related to ethe COP 27 meeting and the situation in Ethiopia.

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets (through October 18th) to reach a political agreement on the fixing of fishing opportunities in 2023 the Baltic Sea.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz welcomes Spain’s King Filipe as part of an official visit.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Ms. Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       France’s President Emmanuel Macron opens the Paris Motor Show.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo speaks on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Euro at the Consejo General de Economistas de Madrid in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a roundtable event “For a New European Fiscal Framework” organized by Bocconi University and Deutsche Bank (a live streaming event).

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Turkic States’ foreign affairs ministers will informally meet in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September), Auto Production (September)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma resumes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria BCB Focus Market Readout, Inflation Report (September)

Tuesday, October 18, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the UN stabilization mission to Mali and then a briefing in the afternoon on the UN Mission in Kosovo.

·       The UN convenes the 25th Session of the Committee of Experts on International Cooperation in Tax Matters in Geneva.

·       The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism cohosts a two-day conference with the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on “International and Regional Border Security and management Cooperation to Counter Terrorism and Prevent the Movement of Terrorists” in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Redbook (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (August)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets to prepare for the EU Council meeting on October 20-21.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with the EU College of Commissioners.

·       France's General Confederation of Labor (CGT) union will hold country-wide strikes to demand higher wages.

·       The UK’s BBC celebrates its 100th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnable participates in an alumni event at the University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       UK 30-year Treasury Gilt Auction

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait will hold its first parliament session since the general election in September.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates Restoration of Independence Day.

·       Qatar officially opens the Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, which is integral to the country’s ambition to host the first net-zero World Cup later this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September).

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022:

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets to on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals.

·       The UN Security Council holds in the morning a briefing on the UN’s Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic. In the afternoon,

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House will host a workshop with 50 representatives from consumer product groups, manufacturing companies, and tech think tanks regarding the National Security Council’s plans for consumer product cybersecurity labeling program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index and other Key Indexes (October), Housing Starts/Building Permits (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September), CPIs and PPIs (September), Raw Materials (September)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will hold its finance ministers meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, through Oct. 21.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his maiden policy address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Tripartite Social Summit meets in Brussels to discussion “tackling the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis: How to protect the economy, businesses, and workers.”  Attendees include EU President Ursala von der Leyen, leaders of BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation, SGI Europe, SMEunited, and CEC European Managers.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate on the preparation of the European Council meeting (being held October 20-21)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Retail Price Index (September) 10-year Gilt Treasury Auction

·       Eurozone CPI (September), Inflation Rate (September), Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPIs (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September), Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 20, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook will give remarks at the “At Exploring Careers in Economics” conferences sponsored by the Federal Reserve.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give pre-recorded remarks at the 2022 Federal Reserve Community Development Research Seminar Series: Toward an Inclusive Recovery.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/CAPEX Index/New Orders/Business Conditions (all October), Existing Home Sales (September), CB Existing Home Sales (September),

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September), Economic Activity (August), Leading Indicators (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia's election commission will meet to set a date for the 15th general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y for October)

·       Japan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (September)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       South Korea PPIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Council Meeting (through October 21st). They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, energy policy, economic issues, and external relations.

·       Informal meeting of Transport Ministers (Through October 21st)

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the EPP Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPIs (September)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       France Business Confidence

·       Eurozone Current Account (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August), Current Account (August)

·       Poland PPIs (September),  Employment Figures (September), Industrial Production (September), Industrial Production (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurasian Economic Union will hold its intergovernmental council in Yerevan, Armenia. 

·       Lebanon will elect a new president during a special parliament session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (October), Overnight Borrowing Rate (October), FX Reserves (October), Central Government Debt (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

Friday, October 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s Support Mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (September), New Housing Index (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)

·       India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September), Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets (day 2)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August), Wholesale Prices/Retail Prices (August)

·       Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 22, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Steve Bannon, a former aide to President Trump, will be sentenced for contempt of Congress and defying subpoena convictions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida headlines a list of speakers at the Mt. Fuji Dialogue 2022.  The theme of this year’s Dialogue,  is “The US-Japan Alliance in the Age of Strategic Competition.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde attends and participates in “Mein Liblingsstück” event (my favorite piece) at the Alte Opera in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovenia holds presidential elections.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari, Italian President Serio Mattarella join Pope Francis for the annual International Meeting of Dialogue and Prayer for Peace among World Religions in Rome (through October 25th).  The conference is expected to focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Talking Hedge Conference - Toronto: Panel Discussion on China’s Futures Markets

Last week I had the great pleasure of moderating a truly fantastic panel exploring and explaining China’s futures markets. From left to right: Me, Fanzine Hachemian of Eagle Investment Solutions, Misha Malyshev of Teza Technologies, and Greg Adamsick of Nashua USA LLC. These three gentlemen are giants of the Chinese futures markets. The discussion was a tour de force of how China has brilliantly developed a robust futures markets which is helping power their growth and coming to dominate the markets.

The Global Week Ahead: October 9 - 16, 2022:

Two events will dominate the global stage both politically and economically in the coming seven days: The first is the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, DC.  Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world will gather to discuss several critical issues but battling a global recession, and rising inflation will be paramount on the list.

This week’s second major event will be the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, beginning October 16th.  The Congress is widely expected to enshrine President Xi Jinping further into the country’s constitution, giving him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected to be adopted including the possibility of giving Xi the title of “chairman” – an honorific previously given only to Communist China’s founder Mao Zedong and a further sign of the extraordinary size and scope of Xi’s political power.

This week will be fairly quiet globally regarding economic data reports.  But watch for two significant reports on Thursday: The US will get updated inflation figures and unemployment numbers, and China will release inflation figures and export/import numbers, giving markets a better sense of the country’s economic trajectory.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 10, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank/International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings and related ancillary events begin and conclude October 16th.  The full schedule of events can be found HERE.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       The International Nuclear Safety Group (a part of the International Atomic Energy Agency) meetings in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 16th Plenary meeting.  It will also hold its 11th Emergency Special Session.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The United Nations marks World Mental Health Day.

·       The Nobel Committee awards the Nobel Prize for Economics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Columbus Day, a federal holiday (the stock market is open, bond markets are closed)

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the November 8th mid-term elections.

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day, a national holiday.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives a speech  on “Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Chicago, Illinois

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates the 77th anniversary of its founding.

·       Taiwan celebrates National Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October), NAB Business Confidence (September), Building Permits (August), Private House Approvals (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President von der Leyen is in Estonia to meet Estonian Prime Minister Katja Kallas and President Alar Karis, as well as deliver a keynote address at Tallinn Digital Summit.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Berlin.  The two countries have been verbally jousting over energy supply policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds a meeting – a “National Dialogue” - for Palestinian leaders in a bid to find common ground among the various factions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production Rate (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (August), Auto Production (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union are set to being a strike against Transnet SOC Ltd, South Africa’s largest port and freight rail operator.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Report (September)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August & September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September) 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022:

Global

·       The IMF publishes its annual Global Financial Stability Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (September), Redbook (October), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Sports Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current (September), Reuters Tankan Index (October), Machinery Orders (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Energy ministers in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 12th)

·       The UK Supreme Court begins hearing arguments from the Scottish National Party over whether they can legislate a referendum for independence without the Westminster government’s permission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President & CEO of the Institute for International Finance at the IIF Annual Members Meeting in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the keynote speech at the 7th SUERF, CGEG, COLUMBIA, SIPA, EIB and SOCIETE GENERALE Conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy” in New York.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria does a fireside chat with Tim Adams at the 20222 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane does a fireside chat at the New York Fed’s Central Banking Seminar in New York.

·       UK Unemployment figures (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia Current Account (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Britain’s High Court of Justice hears a further legal challenge to the country’s deal with Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Wednesday, October 12, 2022: 

Global

·       The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, DC (all are here for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consolation on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on “New Technologies, the Fed, and Inclusion” at the 2022 D.C. Fintech Week in Washington, DC

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech “Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Tool: Considerations for the Current Economic Environment” at the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, PPIs (September), MBA Mortgage Rate (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October), WASDE Report,

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A court in Myanmar is expected to hand down additional verdicts on corruption charges against Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Prime Minister.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States holds a summit for foreign ministers in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (September), Bank Lending (September), PPIs (September)

·       Australia Consumer Confidence Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Indonesia Car & Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Manufacturing Production (August), Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers begin meetings in Brussels, chaired by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

·       EU President von der Leyen delivers a speech at the EU Ambassadors Conference.  She later meets with the College of Commissioners.

·       Informal Meeting of Employment and Social Affairs Minister in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 13th).

·       Spain celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President and CEO of the Institute for International Finance at their 2022 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       UK GDP (August), Construction Output (August), Goods Trade Balance non-EU (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Industrial Production (August), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Industrial Production (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, October 13, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Oil Market Report (October) released.

·       The Arctic Circle Assembly begins in Reykjavik.

·       The UN Security Council holds a consultation on the situation in Yemen.

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representative’s January 6th Investigative Committee will hold their likely last big hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core Inflation Rate (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), CPI (September)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the 30th Anniversary Summit of the Conference on the Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       Taiwan will end mandatory quarantines for visitors to the island other than those coming from China, Macao, and Hong Kong. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (September), New Yuan Loans (September), Outstanding Loan Growth (September), Total Social Financing (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

·       South Korea Imports/Export Prices (September)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbikes Sales (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council  meetings to discuss the state of investigations and prosecutions of Russians for war crimes (through October 14th).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK BoE Credit Conditions Survey

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament meets to try again to come to an agreement on the countries next President.  Previous efforts have failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold/Mining Production figures (August)

Friday, October 14, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Retail Sales (September), Import Price Figures (September), Export Prices (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Current Conditions/5-Year Inflation Expectations/Consumer Expectations Inflation Expectation Reports (October), Business Inventories (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the United States begin the 15th joint military exercise called “Yudh Abhyas” in Uttarakhand, 60 miles from the disputed India-China border.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves ((October), Passenger Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Indonesia WPI Fuel (September), WPI Manufacturing (September), WPI Food (September), WPI Inflation (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing (September), PPIs (August), Services PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of Eurogroup ministers in an inclusive format with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington DC (as they will all be in Washington DC for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September), MI Money Supply (September), Manufacturing PMI (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 15, 2022:

Global

·       The Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee holds its annual conference in Washington DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane patriciates in the Annual global macro and digital annual program organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC) in Washington DC.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: October 2 – 9, 2022:

It is another eventful week ahead but leading the list is China’s Seventh Plenum of the 19th Party Congress next Sunday, October 9th.  The Plenum is where China’s all-powerful Central Committee reviews and approves all documents and proposals to be considered at the 20th Party Congress, which commences October 16th (it will be at the October 16th Congress where President Xi Jinping is expected to be given an unprecedented third term as China’s President).  

Also, this week OPEC+ will meet virtually to discuss oil prices and are expected to cut output by as much as 500,000 barrels a day to keep oil prices above $90.  Meanwhile, EU leaders will be meeting this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine, exploding energy prices in the EU, and how to cap them. 

Also, this week, beginning Monday, the Nobel Prizes announce their annual prizes for everything from chemistry to literature to peace.  The award for economics will be announced the following Monday (October 10th).

Closer to home, the US Congress has left until after the mid-term elections (now a month away), but the US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet to review and approve a report which will be the framework for regulating crypto markets.

On the economic front, we will be watching a host of PMIs being reported across Europe and Asia this week – all of which will factor heavily into next week’s IMF/World Bank meetings.  We will also be watching closely new US jobless data.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of German members of parliament arrive for an official visit of Taiwan for the first time since 2019.

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 3, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna, Austria.  It is expected they will discuss the Iranian nuclear weapons program, President Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons, and North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physiology or Medicine in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets to review and approve the report required by President Biden on digital assets.  The report – “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets” – will serve as the framework for the Administration’s regulation of crypto.

·       Canada holds general elections in Québec.

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Puerto Rico to inspect the damage from Hurricane Fiona.

·       The US Supreme Court opens its fall term.  They will hear cases this session dealing with voting rights, the independence of state legislatures, and environmental cases.

·       The US Senate and House of Representatives are out of session until after the midterm elections on November 8th.  Both chambers are expected to return November 14th. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson gives a speech on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Lessons from the Pandemic and the Path Ahead” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       US ISM’s Manufacturing PMI/Prices/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment Reports (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September), FX Reserves (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Colombia Exports (August), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Senior Officials are expected to meet through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       ASEAN Senior Economic Officials Meeting through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

·       Meeting of the ASEAN Coordinating Council Working Meeting

·       Australia celebrates Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPIs (September)

·       Indonesia Inflation Data (September)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August), Building Permits (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (September)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to meet and have a working dinner in Berlin (if Chancellor Scholz has recovered from COVID in time).

·       The European Parliament holds its first October plenary session through October 6th.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss the macroeconomic situation in the Euro area and policy responses to high energy prices as well as inflationary pressures.  ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

·       Russia’s lower parliament expected to ratify President Putin’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.

·       Germany celebrates Unification Day – 32 years since East and West Germany were reunited.

·       Bank of England’s Catherine Mann will be a panelist at the CDB Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Initiative.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      South Africa hosts Africa Oil Week in Cape Town.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Angola FX Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 4, 2022:

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) commences.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physics in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US’s NASA and SpaceX plan to launch the 5th crewed mission to the International Space Station from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  If weather or other reasons do not permit launch today, NASA will seek to launch on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (October), JOLTs Job Openings (August), Factory Orders (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (September)

·       Australia central bank (RBA) interest rate decision (likely 50 bps), RBA Financial Stability Review and Chart Pack, Commodity Prices (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore G&P Global PMI (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (Ecofin) meets to discuss the economic situation and high energy prices.  It will also approve conclusions on climate finance ahead of the COP 27 meeting in Egypt in November.

·       Russia’s Upper Chamber of Parliament expected to approve the annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Luxembourg.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the keynote speech and participates in a panel at the FMA Supervisory Conference 2022 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Spain Unemployment Changes (September)

·       Eurozone PPI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Central Bank monetary policy report released.

·       Nigeria PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting via videoconference.  It is expected they move to cut output.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Chemistry in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       The G-20 Civil Society Summit is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The G-20 Parliamentary Speakers Summit is held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for American States (OAS) holds its 52nd General Assembly in Lima, Peru. 

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Florida to inspect the damage from Hurricane Ian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US ADP Employment Change (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), MBA Mortgage Rates and other data (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI/Orders/Business Activity/New Orders/Employment (September)

·       Canada Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), Building Permits (August)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz holds a summit with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in A Coruña (in Galicia, Spain).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Cyprus.

·       Germany Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya PMIs (September)

·       Uganda PMIs (September)

·       Zambia PMIs (September)

·       Ghana PMIs (September)

Thursday, October 6, 2022: 

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) meets today and tomorrow in Geneva, Austria.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at Georgetown University in Washington DC outlining the agenda for the IMF’s Annual meeting which takes place next week.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Literature in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives her first speech as Governor at The Peterson Institute for International Economics.  She will give present on the US economic outlook.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Mark C. Berger Workshop Series in Lexington, Kentucky.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Jobless Claims (4-week average)

·       Canada IVEY PMI (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports/Production (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka’s Parliament expected to debate a bill to amend the Constitution curtailing presidential powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Household Spending (August), FX Reserves (September)

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community (EPC meets in Prague in advance of the informal heads of state meeting Friday.

·       Norway’s government presents its 2023 budget to the Storting (Parliament)

·       Kazakhstan/s ruling Amanat Party to hold an extraordinary Party Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

Poland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       Uganda interest rate decision

Friday, October 7, 2022:

Global

·       United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s World Food Price Index (September)

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Peace in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment Figures (September), Consumer Credit Change (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate Figures (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Chile Inflation Figures (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (September), Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (September)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU holds an informal meeting of heads of state in Prague to discuss Ukraine, energy, and the economy.

·       The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility will present their initial analysis of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plan as presented out last week.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin turns 70.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), FX Reserves (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (September),  Mortgage Rates (September), Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Italy Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September), FX Reserves (September), Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Poland FX Reserves (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (September)

·       Israel FX Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (September)

·       Ghana interest rate decision

·       Tanzania inflation figures (September)

·       Mauritius inflation figures (September)

Saturday, October 8, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

·       Political/Social Events –

·       Scotland’s National Party (SNP) annual conference is held in Aberdeen.

·       The UK expects a 24-hour strike of the national train workers – the RMT union – over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.