SumZero Presents: A Global Macro Policy Discussion with Manoj Ramnani and Frank Kelly

Last week, I had the great pleasure of being part of a fun and fascinating macro policy discussion with Manoj Ramnani, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of 93 East Capital. Our talk was moderated by Griffin Marie of SumZero.

We covered a great deal of ground in an hour: Everything from Russia and Ukraine to China to the dollar's strength and commodity prices. If you are interested in seeing our discussion, you watch it HERE.

Fulcrum Macro Advisors Washington Week Ahead: Will We See A Government Shutdown? And Are We Reaching New Inflection Points in Russia and Iran?

Monday and Tuesday morning will be quiet here in Washington as Congress is out of session for Rosh Hashanah. That leaves them little time to get a stop-gap federal funding bill done before the government runs out of money on Friday.  

Typically, getting a short-term funding bill through Congress is relatively easy – although the markets have experienced their fair share of government shutdowns (10 to be precise since 1980. The longest was in 2018-2019 and lasted 35 days).    

To avoid another shutdown, the Senate returns to work Tuesday afternoon and hopes to pass such a bill, but it is particularly complicated this time around. Why? What to do with Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) oil/gas permitting bill. Recall that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) promised Manchin they would support his legislation that would significantly expand the permitting of oil and gas drilling in return for his support of the Inflation Reduction Act. 

 The complication? More than 70 House Progressive Democrats have gone on record opposing the bill, and most Congressional Republicans also are going to fight it (not that they oppose expanding permitting but because they do not want to give Manchin or the White House a victory this close to the November mid-terms).

You can find a summary HERE for details of what is in the Manchin bill.  The big question: Will Pelosi and Schumer successfully attach Manchin’s bill to the short-term funding bill? Or is there too much risk  it will cause a government shutdown this close to the election?

The temporary funding bill – which will keep the money flowing until December 16th, when Congress is back from the mid-terms and can move to either vote on a final budget or temporarily extend the funding again – will have other add-ons, including $12 billion more in military and economic aid to Ukraine, funding for the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, and financing for resettling Afghan refugees as well as heating assistance for low-income families.

 Beyond this bill, Congress is working on getting out of town as fast as possible to campaign for the final four weeks before the November mid-terms. 

Looking abroad, we will be watching closely what is happening in Russia and Ukraine this week. Russia has rushed through a “vote” to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya regions, making them formally a part of Russia. Hence, any attacks by Ukrainian forces will be categorized by Moscow as an attack on Russia itself. The elections are clearly a sham (there are credible reports that 13 and 14-year-old Ukrainians have been forced to vote at gunpoint for the annexation) and show how desperate the situation has become for Russian President Putin.

Concurrent with the annexation vote, Putin is moving forward to mobilize at least 300,000 new troops. Reports suggest that the State Duma (Parliament) has given Putin the authority to draft as many as 1 million men. Resistance is significant – reports of men fleeing abroad are extraordinary. On Friday, we talked with a friend in Almaty, Kazakhstan, who told us of large groups of young Russian men who had fled the mobilization last week, milling around in public parks, cafes, and hotels, talking about how to find work and not be sent back to Russia.  It is now evident knowledge of the failures of the Russian Army and casualty rates are much better known by the general Russian public than previously thought (we would note the New York Times recently published estimates of between 80,000 and 110,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in the past seven months).  

Add to this news reports in official Russian press of both borders being closed and possible imposition of martial law, and we are hitting a massive inflection point in the war.  

Elsewhere, the situation in Iran also bears close watch. Protests across the country have continued to grow as average Iranian citizens show their anger at police brutality after the morality police arrested a 22-year-old woman for allegedly violating the hijab dress code.  She died in captivity from torture.   This event, along with intense overall frustration with social restrictions and ever-growing economic malaise.  Of note from a US perspective is the US Treasury’s expansion of sanctions on Iran’s morality police as the negotiations with Iran over restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – otherwise known as the nuclear deal – continue and the Biden Administration issuing a license to relax sanctions in internet services in Iran to help “support the free flow of information for Iranians.  We do not see, at this point in time, much likelihood of the protests resulting in a change of government.  But it does show the growing unhappiness among the general Iranian public with little change for improvement. 

Finally, we would note the potential market impact of Italy’s elections yesterday. The right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni won a sweeping victory.  It was a massive political comeback story for Meloni and her party, Brother of Italy, which only won 4 percent of the vote in 2018.  

The question for markets in the short-term is can Meloni get the 2023 budget approved by the EU by the end of the year (as required). And will her coalition government be able to meet the 54 targets/conditions worked out with the European Commission to unlock the 3rd tranche payment (€19 billion)  from the Next Generation EU (NGEU) program? Also, will they honor the terms and repayment schedule of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) or, as Meloni promised in the campaign, seek to renegotiate it? 

Italy drew down the full €191.5 billion allocated to them in the NRRP to help battle the economic impact of COVID.  But Meloni wants to renegotiate the repayment, saying the Ukraine War is presenting Italy with a new set of challenges that need to be addressed, too.   

About those rumors of a coup in China…

Over the weekend, the internet was saturated with reports of an apparent coup in China, removing President Xi Jinping from power. The rumor, of course, comes in advance of the October 16th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), where Xi will be given an unprecedented third term as President.   

We spoke with several sources about the rumor and the risk of an actual coup and can find no validity to any of these rumors. US officials we talked to Sunday were not particularly concerned about the risk of a coup. 

As we understand it, Xi is likely self-quarantining following his attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan. We also know the schedule and invitations for the Congress were issued this past weekend, and Xi is among the listed attendees. Xi's name is all over the schedule – clearly, not something that would happen if Xi had been removed from power.

What is the genesis of the rumors, then?   One US government official pointed to Falun Gong, the quasi-religious dissent organization based in Deerpark, New York. 

The group has been the subject of intense suppression inside China and a ferocious critic of Beijing worldwide. The Falun Gong owns The Epoch Times (which has published stories speculating about a possible coup). 

Nevertheless, all the news around Bejing’s power machinations is worth watching as we approach the Congress.  The Congress will undoubtedly be a historical event simply for re-electing Xi for a third term. But we are likely to see other significant shifts in the power apparatus in Beijing, including Xi being granted the title of "chairman" – a title not used since Chinese Communist Party founder Mao Zedong and putting him on par with Mao.

Granting Xi such a title would be beyond simply rewarding him with a new honorific. Many observers believe it would signal a rejection of a significant portion of the Post-Mao reforms and a new path – politically, socially, and economically – under Xi and his philosophy which was inserted into the Chinese constitution in 2017. 

It is formally known as "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era" - or "Xi Jinping Thought" for short - and is focused on a return to a more strict form of Marxist-Leninism and the overall goals of communism. The Chinese Ministry of Education via educational research institutes, writings, and classroom teaching.  

We expect other major announcements to come out of the CCP Congress. But a coup removing Xi from power will likely not be one of them.

We hope this is helpful.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

the Global Week Ahead: September 25 - October 2, 2022

The coming week will see a number of elections around the world, most notably the first round of Brazil’s hard-fought presidential elections.  Also, this week,  Russia is expected to wrap up its sham referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk, formally annexing the regions as part of Russia.  We will also be closely watching two significant unscheduled events with significant geopolitical implications: The ongoing (and growing) protests and riots in Iran against the leadership in Iran and protests in Russia against President Putin’s mobilization of new troops for the war in Ukraine. 

 Here in Washington, President Biden hosts a US-Pacific Island Nation Summit to shore up relations and push back on China building stronger ties (and naval basing capacity) with these countries.

 On the global economic front, we are watching key unemployment numbers in the US later this week, several important economic figures out of China, and a slew of speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and European Central Bank board members. 

Finally, on a scientific note, we will watch Monday as NASA fires a rocket at an asteroid to try to knock it off course.  It is a test in case an asteroid is actually hurtling toward Earth – just like in the movies!

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe expected to begin a five-day visit to Japan to discuss debt restructuring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank’s  Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia continues to hold rushed referendums in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (regions in Ukraine seized by Russia) formally annexing the regions to become part of Russia.  The votes are expected to last through September 27.

·       Italy holds general elections.

·       The UK Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       São Tomé and Príncipe hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 26, 2022:

Global

·       The Annual General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency members begins in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear development as well as Russian President Putin’s recent threats to use nuclear weapons (as well as the ongoing Russian threat to nuclear reactors in Ukraine) will be top issues discussed.

·       The International Criminal Court begins the trial of accused perpetrators of the 2009 stadium massacre in Conakry, Guina.

·       Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, is celebrated.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN Human Rights Council discuss Venezuela.  The Council released a scathing report on September 20th detailing the Venezuelan governments responsibilities for a massive number of crimes against humanity in an effort repress dissent in the country.

·       Colombia and Venezuela to reopen shared border for the first time in three years.

·       NASA will launch a spacecraft into an asteroid in an effort to shove it off its course.  The exercise is designed to prepare for the risk of asteroid that might be hurtling toward Earth (destroying our planet) can be deflected, saving the world (just like in the movies!)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (June/July/August), Foreign Direct Investment (June/July/August)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan Central Bank release of minutes of monetary policy meeting (July), Speech by Bank Governor Kuroda in Osaka to business leaders.

·       Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (August)

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss food security issues arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food will join the discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives introductory statement at a European Parliament hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Asociación Espańola de Directivos in Madrid.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Payments and Securities Settlement in Europe Symposium in Frankfurt.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions (September)

·       Spain PPI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament to discuss the budget after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticized the government’s reform efforts as insufficient.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 27, 2022: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and the UN’s mission there.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese to speak at The Economic Club of Washington DC on “The State of the US and Global Economy.”

·       NASA will launch Artemis 1, the largest and most powerful rocket launched by the agency, in a series of complex missions leading to building a long-term presence on the Moon.

·       The US Senate is expected to hold a vote on a continuing resolution to keep the government open until December.  Markets will be watching to see if the promised Oil/Gas Permitting Bill sponsored by Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) will be included in it.  A large number Congressional Progressive Democrats along with Republicans are opposing it.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Durable Goods Orders (August), Redbook (September), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July), New Home Sales (August), CB Consumer Confidence (September), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (September(, Richmond Fed Services Index (September), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (Septmber)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August), Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Retail Sales (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s Unite members employed at Felixstowe port (one of the UK’s largest ports) to begin a second eight-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       France Unemployment figures (August)

·       Eurozone Loans to Households (August), Loans to Companies (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria interest rate decision

·       Seychelles interest rate decision

·       South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, September 28, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Joe Biden to host the first US-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, DC.  The Summit is seen as an effort to counter China’s growing influence over key Pacific Island nations as recently seen with Beijing’s ties with the Solomon Islands.

·       The White House holds the Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health.  President Biden will host with a number of cabinet officials expected to speak.

·       The House January 6th Committee meets -potentially for the last time – to hear testimony from several witnesses.

·       The National Bank of Canada and Bloomberg hold the 10th Annual Canadian Finance Conference (today and the 29th) to discuss the future of Canadian financial and business landscape. The meeting is virtual.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives welcoming remarks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri on “The New Landscape for Banking Competition.”

·       US MBA Mortgage Indexes (September), Goods Trade Balance (August), Retail Inventories (August), Pending Home Sales (August)

·       Brazil PPI (August), Banking Lending (August), Net Payrolls (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Asia Summit 2022 will be held in Singapore (through September 28).

·       Germany’s Air Force to conduct joint-training exercises with the Japanese Air Force in Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September(, Inflation Rate (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Atlantic Council and the Atlantik-Brücke host an all-day virtual Frankfurt Forum on US-European Geoeconomics.  ECB President Cristine Lagarde will deliver the keynote address.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Greens/EFA meeting in the European Parliament on the topic of “A European monetary policy for the planet and for the people.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Industrial Sales (July), Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Real Wage Growth (July), Unemployment Rate (August), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria’s presidential campaign season officially commences.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 29, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya and UN efforts in the country.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo speaks at the Atlantic Council on “The CHIPS and Science Act and Competing with China”.  Raimondo is expected to shed new light on federal funding to further build up the US semiconductor industry.

·       Fortune Magazine hosts Fortune’s Global Sustainability Virtual Forum.  Former Vice President Al Gore as well as CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland policy panel entitled “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022”.

·       US GDP Price Index (Q2), Growth Rate (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September), PCE Prices (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Corporate Profits (Q2), GDP Sales (Q2)

·       Canada GDP (July and August), CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (September), Non-Manufacturing PMI (September), Caixin Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Japan Labor Force Survey, Industrial Production (September), Unemployment Rate (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea Construction Output (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Australia Private Sector Credit (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and Industry) meetings to discuss the single market emergency instrument (SMEI) and the eco-design for sustainable products regulation (ESPR).

·       The City of London elections the new Lord Mayor.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives an introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives an online speech on “The future of Central Banking” on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary of the Lietuvos banks organized by the Bank for International Settlements and the Bank of Lithuania in Vilnius.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the OMFIF’s Sustainable Policy Institute in Amsterdam on “moving beyond climate: integrating biodiversity into financial markets”

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 2022 Research Workshop organized by the ECB on “Working Group on Stress Testing.”

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives remarks and participates in a panel discussion on “Central bank as a pool of real-time data: the ‘Whys” and the ‘Hows” hosted by the Bank for International Settlements and the bank of Lithuania in Vilnius.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Italy PPI (August)

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence (September), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (August), Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Friday, September 30, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the ongoing UN security stabilization effort in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives remarks on “Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board Conference “Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy” in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance on “The Principles for Large Bank Supervision”

·       US Personal Income (August), PCE Price Index (August), Personal Spending (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5 Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions Reports (September)

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (August), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Figures (August), Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Current Account (Q2)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence Index, New Housing Starts (September), Japan Finance Corporation Survey (October), Construction Orders (August)

·       India Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio, Government Budget Value (August), Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Infrastructure Output (August)

·       South Korea Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September), Coincident Index (August), Retail Sales (July)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to seek agreement on a proposed regulation on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices.

·       Today will be the last day paper 20- and 50-pound notes will be legal paper. They are being replaced by polymer notes.

·       UK’s Communications Workers Union begin two-day walkout (those employed by the Royal Mail).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion on “the Fight Against Inflation” hosted by the La Toja Forum in La Toja, Spain.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August), Unemployment Rate (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Great Britain GDP Rate (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August), KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

·       Spain Retail Sales (August), Current Account (July)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August), Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation rate (September)

·       Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Q2), Inflation Rate (September), CPI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (August)

Saturday, October 1, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China celebrates the founding of the People’s Republic of China and commences Golden Week national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Latvia holds parliamentary elections.

·       UK’s RMT and Asief (rail workers) unions begin first of two 24-hour strikes over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany institutes minimum wage increase to 12 euros an hour.

·       UK’s energy regulator, Ofgem, commences price cap on energy process.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: September 18-25, 2022

This week, the dominant geopolitical event of the week will be the United Nations 77th General Assembly's annual week-long General Debate. Heads of state from around the world will be attending and speaking – many coming directly from Queen Elizabeth II's funeral on Monday. Climate change, food and energy security challenges, and how to deal with Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine will dominate the week and the speeches of the various leaders addressing the assembly.

Economically, this is going to be the week of interest rate hikes. Central banks from around the world – led by the US Federal Reserve – are set to raise rates, some in quite dramatic fashion. The US is likely to raise rates 75 basis points. But watch for what Japan and Great Britain do, too (not to mention the central banks of Brazil, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Indonesia, Taiwan, Turkey, Egypt, and South Africa among others). And we will watch for any significant changes in jobless claims in the US on Thursday. Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 18, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi concludes a two-day visit to Armenia to show support for the country in the face of attacks from Azerbaijan.

·       Chile celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Paris holds a "No Car Day" to support carbon-free emissions.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 19, 2022:

Global

• The Bank of International Settlements publishes its quarterly report on global financial markets.

• The G-20 Trade, Investment, and Infrastructure Working Group meets in Bali, Indonesia.

• World Bank Group President David Malpass will take part in a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York on the state of the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The US Congress returns from the weekend facing the September 30 government funding deadline, one week from Friday. There has been some hope both parties will agree to a short-term funding plan until December 16, thus allowing Congress to leave early to head back home to campaign. But a major question has emerged as to whether to include the promised legislation to Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) expanding oil/gas permitting (which he got in return for supporting the Inflation Reduction Act). 

·       Progressive Democrats strongly oppose the measure. Manchin is expected to unveil the text of the bill sometime this week.

·       The US Senate is expected this week to take up the so-called Kigali Amendment, which would be the first climate treaty approved by the Senate in decades. Getting 67 Senators to vote in favor of the treaty is going to be tough, and it is uncertain at this time if it will pass.

·       The Clinton Global Initiative holds a two-day virtual summit.  Among those expected to speak are White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, BlackRock Chair and CEO Larry Fink, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. 

·       Fast Company is hosting its Innovation Festival through Thursday. The tech-focused event will interestingly have a big union focus as Amazon Labor Union President Christian Smalls and US Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh are both expected to speak. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US NAHB Housing Market Index (September)

·       Canada PPI (August), Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Hong Kong Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun and five well-known members of the  Democratic Front are due to appear in court.  They are accused of failing to properly register a huminatrian fund for which they were administrators.

·       Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to address the United Nations General Assembly. With the massive floods that have recently afflicted the country, it is expected he will focus heavily on climate change as a global risk.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Loan Prime Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Australia Central Bank Meeting Minutes released.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Great Britain's Queen Elizabeth II's state funeral in London.

·       Port operatives and maintenance engineers in Liverpool dock operations will go on strike over pay issues.

·       A group of approximately 80 Russian business leaders is expected to travel to Tehran this week to build stronger economic and financial ties.  The delegation's trip is a result of Iran becoming a member last week of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel at the Single Resolution Board Annual Conference in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos speech at the annual meeting Consejos Consultivos in Madrid.

·       Eurozone Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Israel and Lebanon are expected to announce this week a ground-breaking maritime agreement that will allow both countries to drill particularly rich natural gas fields off the coast of both countries.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 20, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly holds General Debate (through September 26). World leaders will gather to discuss the Ukraine war, the food and energy security crisis, COVID responses, climate change, and nuclear weapons by rough states. A full schedule of who is speaking and when can be found here.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Joe Biden to meet with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the United Nations to discuss mutual security issues.

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will meet with investors in New York to discuss possible investments in the country's natural resources as well as various sustainable development initiatives.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       The US Federal Reserve Board begins two days of meetings in advance of their interest rate decision tomorrow.

·       US Housing Starts (August), Building Permits (August), Redbook (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Malaysia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Philippines Employment Growth (August), Industrial Production (August), PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet with Bosnia and Herzegovina's leading Bosnian Serb politician, Milorad Dodik, in Moscow.  This is all part of Putin's efforts to pry away political elements of the EU to support his invasion of Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde to give the Karl-Otto Pöhl Lecture at the Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handle, Industrie und Wissenschaft in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul to speak at the AFME 17th Annual European Leveraged Finance Conference in London.

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August), SECO Economic Forecasts 

·       Eurozone Current Account (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Current Account (Q2)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Ghana GDP (Q2), PPI (August) 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Financial Services Committee will hold a full committee hearing where the CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Truist, US Bancorp, and PNC Financial Services will testify. The hearing is entitled "Holding Megabanks Accountable: Oversight of America's Largest Consumer Facing Banks." The Senate Banking Committee will hear from the same witnesses tomorrow.

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu will give a keynote address on the state of the banking sector at the EMERGE Financial Health 2022 Conference in Los Angeles, California.

·       Belize celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (September), Existing Home Sales (August)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (July), Private Spending (Q2), Aggregate Demand (Q2)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August), Unemployment Rate (Q2)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision\

·       Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)

·       India M3 Money supply (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to address the United Nations General Assembly.

·       Malta celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September), Public Sector net Borrowing ex-Banks (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (June), Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August),

·       Russia PPI (August), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of trade (August)

·       Israel Industrial Production (July)

·       UAE Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 22, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank President David Malpass will speak at a Politico Live event entitled "Tipping Points: Confronting Multiple Global Crises."

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing where the CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Truist, US Bancorp, and PNC Financial Services will testify. The hearing is entitled "Annual Oversight of the Nation's Largest Banks."

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will speak at the Atlantic Festival.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Current Account (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (Week of September 17), CB Leading Index (August), Kansas Fed Composite Index (September), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (September), 10-year TIPS Auction

·       Mexico Mid-Month Core Inflation (September)

·       Canada's new Housing Price Index (August)

·       Argentina Current Account (Q2)

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Cambodia's Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts is expected to hand down final verdicts on the communist Khmer Rouge regime's role in the genocide of 1975-1979 and the role of the former head of state, Khieu Samphan.

·       Pakistan’s Supreme Court will hold a hearing where they are expected to indict former Prime Minister Imran Khan of contempt of court.  He has also been charged with terrorism offences.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September), Unemployment Rate (August), M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account (Q2), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Services (September), S&P Composite (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB General Council meeting in Frankfurt.

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo speech at the Leaders in Finance AML Europe in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen speech at the 9th Conference on the Banking Union hosted by Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and the Goethe University's Institute for Law and Finance in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech at the Network Luxemburg-Frankfurt Financial Professionals meeting in Luxemburg.

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September), Overnight Lending Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Mali celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Friday, September 23, 2022:

Global 

·       The Autumn Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       The Federal Reserve hosts "Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy" - two panels with Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard moderating each.

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Composite PMI (September), S&P Services (September)

·       Canada Retail Sales (July), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The border between India and Bhutan is expected to reopen for the first time in 2 ½ years. It has been closed mostly because of COVID.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India FX Reserves (September), Bank Lona Growth (September 19), 

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Core Inflation (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence (Q3), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       UK Prime Minister Liz Truss to release her emergency mini-budget to revive the UK economy.  Due to the ongoing energy shock, the average household in the UK faces paying an additional 2,5000 pounds in the coming year.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Germany &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       France &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (September), S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI (September), CBI Distributive Trade (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September), GDP Growth ((Q2)

·       Switzerland Current Account (Q2)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Eurozone &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Ethiopia S&P Global Ratings to be released.

Saturday, September 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Italy holds general elections.  A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni is expected to sweep to power

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Guinea-Bissau celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September), Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank composite PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russia holds a second round of regional and local elections.

·       The UK Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: September 11 - 18, 2022

This week, we will be watching closely the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Forum being held in Uzbekistan.  It is expected that Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines.  Of note, this is the first overseas trip Xi has taken in three years.  Putin, who is watching a significant portion of the Russian Army being routed in Ukraine now, will likely press attending countries to support Russia economically and perhaps in other ways.  Also, this week, the UK, as it prepares for next Monday’s funeral of Queen Elizabeth, faces a deadline on the EU’s complaint over trade controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (The Northern Ireland Protocol).

On the global economic and markets front, we will be watching the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday, where a former senior Twitter executive turned whistleblower will testify.  Also, this week, we will see important inflation data from the US and UK, as well as significant property sector data from China.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 11, 2022:

Global

·       The 21st anniversary of the terror attacks on New York and Washington, DC, is marked globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Okinawa gubernatorial election to be held

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Sweden holds general elections.

·       Spain’s Catalonia region celebrates National Day, coinciding with pro-independence demonstrations.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid makes a state visit to Germany and meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank Steinmeier in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kenyan President-elect William Ruto will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 12, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets through September 16. Heavy focus on Iran’s nuclear program, the IAEA’s recent mission to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant held by Russian military forces in Ukraine, and North Korea (which recently announced they would no longer abide by a “no first-strike” agreement.

·       The United Nations will hold a plenary meeting to close the 76th session.

·       The International Labor Organization (ILO) is expected to release its Global Estimates on Modern Slavery Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mexican Foreign Minister Ebrard in Monterrey, Mexico, as part of the US-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue.

·       The 74th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards is held in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Bank of Brazil Focus Market Readout

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Li Zhanshu, to visit Nepal to discuss mutual trade and security issues. This follows a visit to Moscow last week where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       India and China are scheduled to complete disengagement from the Gogra-Hot Springs area.  This is where Chinese and Indian soldiers engaged in violent clashes in 2020, where as many as 20 Indian troops were killed, and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed.

·       Australia’s Quantas and Emirates Airlines ground handlers go on strike for 24 hours over pay.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Machine Tools (August), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q3), PPI (August), Finance Ministry releases Business Outlook for July-September

·       India Industrial Production (July), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September), NAB Business Confidence (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Annual Conference of the Trade Union Congress begins in Brighton.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guidnos speech at the Foro Económico organized by El Norte de Castilla

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech at the 7th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Current Account (July)

·       UK GDP (July), Balance of Trade (July), Construction Output (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (July), Current Account (July), Auto Production (August)

·       UAE Loan Growth (June & July), M3 Money Supply (June & July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Tuesday, September 13, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nations begins the 77th General Assembly.

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization is expected to release its report on “the future of food and agriculture.”

·       The VII Congress of World and Traditional Religions begins in Kazakhstan (through September 15). Pope Francis to attend.

·       The 26th World Investment Conference to be held in Geneva, Switzerland. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island hold primaries – the final primary contests in advance of the November mid-term elections.

·       The US of House of Representatives returns from their August recess. The Senate returned last week. In the coming week, the two chambers will focus on getting a government funding deal done to fund the government until at least December 16. 

·       The US Senate Judiciary Committee will hear testimony from a Twitter whistleblower, Peiter Zatko, that is likely to be highly impactful to the ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter over his proposed acquisition of the company.

·       Bolivia’s President Luis Arce to inaugurate the Red and Green Lines of the new Cochabamba Mi Tren – Bolivia’s first metropolitan train system.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Core Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August), Redbook (September), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ((September), NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nepal’s Foreign Secretary Bharat Raj Paudyal to visit India to discuss bilateral trade and investment issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September), Machinery Orders (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The European Parliament will discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and will vote later in the week on a €5 billion macro-financial loan to help Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  Participates in a fireside chat and Q&A session at Barclays Global Financial Conference (online)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August)

·       UK Claimant Count Change (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (August)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade/Current Account (July)

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia will host the 2nd Global Artificial Intelligence Summit in Riyadh.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the current situation in Sudan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Gold Production (July), Mining Production (July)

Wednesday, September 14, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report

·       G20 Labor Ministers meet in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Mexico’s National Independent Union of Workers of the Automotive Industry (SINTTIA) is expected to begin a strike at Volkswagen’s Puebla state plant due to pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US PPIs (August), MBA Mortgage Market Index (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July), Business Confidence (September)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping as Xi travels to Uzbekistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China’s People’s Bank of China 1-year MLF Announcement

·       Japan Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September), Unemployment Rate (August), RBA Bulletin

·       India WPI Fuel and Food Reports (August)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q2)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q2)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyen to give an outline of the European Commission’s ideas on capping energy prices in the annual State of the Union Address.

·       Informal meeting of the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers (through September 16)

·       Russia holds numerous regional and municipal elections across the country.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane speaks at ECB Money Market Contact Group meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       UK Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Syria.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 15, 2022:

Global 

·       G-7 Speakers’ Conference (heads of G-7 Parliaments) meets in Berlin, Germany.

·       The UN Security Council will vote on resolutions linked to the Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Dáesh (UNITED).

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Biden to hold United We Stand Summit to discuss gun violence, hate crimes, and other social threats to democracy.

·       US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will testify before the US Senate Banking Committee. He will give an update on the SEC’s broad agenda.

·       El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua all celebrate Independence Day (public holidays).

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Retail Sales (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Business Inventories (July), Import Prices and Export Prices (August), Initial Jobless Claims (September), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September) Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions ((September), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (September), Philadelphia Fed Employment (September), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September), 

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (July), Housing Starts (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Uzbekistan will host the 2022 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. It is expected that Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi will meet (marking the first foreign trip by Xi in more than three years).  The SCO current members are India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; four countries — Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia — have an observer status with the SCO, and six countries — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey and Sri Lanka — have a dialogue partner status.

·       China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress Li Zhanshu will visit South Korea to meet with President Yoon Suk-yeol and other officials. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Housing Price Index (August), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       South Korea Export Prices (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Sri Lanka GDP (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UK faces a deadline to respond to a European Union legal action over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol.

·       London Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England interest rate decision is delayed until September 22 due to the death of Queen Elizabeth (the first time the BoE has done so since becoming independent 25 years ago)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (July), Labor Cost Index (Q2), Wage Growth 9Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (August), FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique interest rate decision.

Friday, September 16, 2022:

Global 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visits Washington DC and will meet with President Biden to discuss trade and investment issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Current Conditions (September), Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Korea and the US hold Bilateral Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meetings.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia HIA New Home Sales (August)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s 187th Octoberfest begins in Munich.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       UK Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August), New Car Registrations (July)

·       Russian Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Bloomberg’s September South Africa Economic Survey will be released.

Saturday, September 17, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       UK’s Liberal Democrat Party holds its annual conference in Brighton.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the Cantillon lecture at the 45th Annual Dublin Economics Workshop in Wexford, Ireland.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 18, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Chile celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Paris holds a “No-Car Day”.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Geopolitical Week Ahead: September 4 - 11, 2022:

This coming week, Russia – despite its ongoing invasion of Ukraine - hosts the 7th Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. More than 46 countries are scheduled to attend to discuss trade and development in the Far East and Arctic, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to address the Forum. The Forum takes place as the United Nations plans to meet to discuss the dire situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.  The UN sent inspectors there last week to assess damage to the facility due to Russian shelling.

We will also see this week North Korea hold an extraordinary meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly to rubber stamp new rural development laws and unspecified “organizational changes.”  North Korea has reportedly been decimated by COVID, and its economy is in worse shape than it has been in decades.  Also this week, OPEC+ will meet to discuss oil production increases.

On the economic front, as we saw last week, there will be another flood of important economic data globally, with key PMI report from the US, various EU nations, and Asian nations along with other data which will give a greater indication of the size and speed of inflation globally.  In particular this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank on Thursday for an expected sizeable interest rate increase. 

Additionally, the three top Federal Reserve Board officials will be giving speeches this week - Chair Jay Powell, Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Lael Brainard, and Vice Chair for Bank Supervision, Michael Barr.  Barr’s speech, his inaugural since being confirmed to the Fed, will likely indicate how the Fed and other Biden-appointed financial regulators see bank and other financial institution mergers going forward.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 4, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds a vote on the newly drafted Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to arrive in Indonesia to meet with Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and sign a five-year plan of action to enhance bilateral cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (August), S&P Global Services PMI (August), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August), Retail Sales ((July), Business Inventories (Q2)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam IS&P Global PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US celebrates Labor Day (a national holiday, markets are closed)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Colombia  PPI (August), Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to begin four-day visit to India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)

·       India S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August)

·       Australia Current Account (Q2)

·       Thailand Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (August)

·       Philippine Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s governing Conservative Party will announce the winner of its leadership contest who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum to be held in Vladivostok, Russia (through September 8). More than 46 countries are expected to attend to discuss development issues for the Far East and Russia.

·       Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to meet with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell at session of EU-Ukraine Association Council. 

·       UK’s criminal barristers expected to begin an indefinite strike over fee levels for legal aid work.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August)

·       Spain S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)

·       Sweden Services PMI (August)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament is expected to decide the country’s next president who will serve a six-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (August)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan Supreme Court to give its ruling in the challenge to the country’s presidential-election result.

·       Africa Adaptation Summit to be held in Rotterdam, the Netherlands to discuss climate issues in advance of the COP27 meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Uganda PMI (August))

·       Kenya PMI (August)

·       Zambia PMI (August))

·       Ghana PMI (August))

·       Mozambique PMI (August))

Tuesday, September 6, 2022:

Global

·       U.N. Security Council may meet per Russia's request to discuss the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate is scheduled to reconvene after August recess; the US House of Representatives remains out of session until September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (August), ISM non-Manufacturing Employment (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index

·       Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to arrive in Singapore to meet with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and sign bilateral counterterrorism and data privacy agreements.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Japan FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision and Chart Pack, GDP Growth Rate (Q2),

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU informal meeting of Health Ministers (through September 7)

·       EU-Georgia Association Council meeting in Brussels.

·       The UK’s Booker Prize shortlist for the best book is announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The annual meeting of the Bruegel Institution begins.  The keynote speaker is IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

·       Germany Factory Orders (July), S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Swaziland celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Wednesday, September 7, 2022:

Global

·       G-20 Development Ministerial meeting to be held in Belitung, Indonesia.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultation on the security situation in Somalia in the morning and a briefing on the war in Ukraine in the afternoon.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 99th Plenary meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil marks 200 years of independence from Portugal.  President Jair Bolsonaro is calling for supporters to join him at a military parade in Rio de Janeiro to celebrate.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Fed Vice Chair for Monetary Policy  Lael Brainard Speech to speak at the Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference in New York; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michal Barr to speak at the Brookings Institution (his first speech as Vice Chair),  Fed Beige Book ; Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (July), Redbook (September),  MBA Mortgage Refinance Index /Purchase Index/Mortgage Application/30-Year Mortgage Rate (September), Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Ivey PMI (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports and Auto Production (August)

·       Chile Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Envoys from Japan, South Korea, and the United States to discuss the security situation in North Korea in Tokyo, Japan.

·       North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly to meet to discuss rural development law changes as well as possible “organizational changes.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (August)

·       Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July), GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Current Account (July)

·       Australia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July), RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Indonesia FX Reserves (August)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (August), Unemployment Rate (July), Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (August)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (August)

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dutch government will publish a report from advisors on prospects for building two new nuclear power reactors as part of the country’s energy transition.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (July)

·       France FX Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Eurozone GDP Growth (est. Q3), Employment Change (Q2)

·       Switzerland FX Reserves (August)

·       Sweden Construction Output (July), Household Consumption (July), Industrial Production (July)

·       Poland FX Reserves (August), Central Bank to meet on interest rate hike.

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August), FX Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel FX Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserve (August)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (May and June)

·       Mauritius FX reserves (August)

·       Seychelles inflation (August)

Thursday, September 8, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds consultations on the situation in Yemen.

·       The OECD releases its global employment outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's speech at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference (via video); Initial Jobless Claims (Sept 3), Continuing Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Sept 3), Consumer Credit Change (July)

· Chile's core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to visit Japan for bilateral defense talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (August), PPI (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey and Outlook Reports (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)

·       Philippines Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine Defense Contact Group to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. 

·       UK’s Royal Mail workers begin two days of strikes over pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports/Current Accounts (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (August)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August), Consumer Confidence (August), Budget Balance (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account (Q2), SACCI Business Confidence (August), Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation (August)

·       Mauritius inflation (August) 

Friday, September 9, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speech at the Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Wien, Austria; Wholesale Inventories (July)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August), Capacity Utilization (Q2)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August),  Car Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to visit Pakistan amid severe floods.

·       Tajikistan celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July), Industrial Production (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU’s Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to discuss emergency measures to mitigate high energy prices and likely scenarios and preparations for the coming winter.

·       Eurogroup Meeting to discuss various topics including Central Bank currencies and an update on the digital euro project.

·       EU Informal meeting of Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Industrial Production (July)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation (August), Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 10, 2022:

Global

·       Monaco hosts the Les rendez-Vous de Setembre Conference, the largest insurance and re-insurance industry in the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the Moon Festival, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moscow holds municipal elections (through September 11).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 11, 2022:

Global

·       The 21st anniversary of the terror attacks on New York and Washington DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Okinawa gubernatorial elections held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Sweden holds general elections.

·       Spain’s Catalonia region celebrates National Day, coinciding with pro-independence demonstrations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid makes a state visit to Germany and meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank Steinmeier in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Geopolitical Week Ahead: August 28 - September 4

This coming week, the war in Ukraine continues to dominate the geopolitical outlook. EU foreign and defense ministers will meet in Prague on Monday and Tuesday to discuss providing further military and economic aid to Ukraine and whether to put forth a blanket ban Russian tourist visas.  Also, this week, Russia will hold  “Vostok-2022,” a massive joint military exercise in Siberia. China, India, Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan will participate. And this will be the first all three branches of China’s military will participate in the annual exercise. Russia will also shut down Nord Stream 1 for unexpected and unscheduled maintenance, further exacerbating the growing EU energy crisis.

Also this week, a flood of important economic data will hit the global markets. Leading the way will Q2 GDP updates for many leading economies (India, South Korea, Italy, and Canada), giving us a greater sense of the risk of a global recession. In the US, in the wake of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s tough-love speech in Jackson Hole this past Friday, the non-farming payroll figures and factory orders will be a key focus. In Europe, markets are focused on the August and July PPIs of several leading EU economies, particularly Q2 GDP numbers for Germany, Poland, and Italy. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, 28 August 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds its first televised presidential debate between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his opponent, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia retail sales (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August), Industrial Production (August), Inflation (August), Retail Sales (August).

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Bassam al-Saadi’s detention in an Israeli prison is scheduled to end and a court hearing will be held over his fate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 supply (July), private banking lending (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 29 August 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 Urban Mayoral Summit is being held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

·       The United Nations begins Africa Climate Week in Gabon n advance of the COP27 meeting in Egypt in November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains in recess until mid-September (House of Representatives returns September 13th; the Senate returns September 6th); Much of Washington DC is still on vacation.

·       NASA to launch the Artemis I Lunar Exploration Rocket to the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to give a prerecorded speech at the FedNow Early Adopter Workshop in Illinois.

·       Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to approve $1.2 billion of its Extended Fund Facility to help strengthen the country’s financial stability.

·       Japan leading economic index (June), coincident index (June), unemployment rate (July)

·       Australia building permits (July), private house approvals (July)

·       Hong Kong monthly property data (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU defense ministers hold informal meetings (through August 30) to discuss the War in Ukraine and how to better coordinate military support for Ukraine.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will give a speech in Prague, the Czech Republic outlining Germany’s vision for the future of the EU bloc.

·       Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morowiecki to visit Paris to meet with French President Macron to discuss the Ukraine War and energy issues.

·       Norway hosts the Offshore Norther Seas Oil and Gas Conference.

·       The UK Summer Bank Holiday.  Also, today will be the end of an eight-day strike by 1,900 port work workers end a strike at Felixstowe, the UK’s major port.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey balance of trade (July), economic confidence index (August)

·       Iran inflation rate (August)

·       Qatar balance of trade (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, 30 August 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Barrack Obama will speak at the Democratic Redistricting Committee fundraiser in Martha’s Vineyard.

·       The one-year anniversary of the US’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Fed President John Williams will speak at a Wall Street Journal Live (online) event.

·       US Redbook (August), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (June), JOLTs Job Opening (July), CB Consumer Confidence (August), Dallas Fed Services Index (August),

·       Canada Current Account (Q2)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (July), unemployment rate (July)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Thai and Laos leaders to meet to discuss linking the China-Laos railway with Thailand’s Nong Khai province to expand the pan-Asian railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Japan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Construction Output (July)

·       Australia Construction Work Done (Q2), Private Sector Credit (July)

·       Philippines PPIs (July), Retail Sales (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia holds its annual joint military exercise – “Vostok-2022” (through September 5th). The exercise will be held in Russia’s Eastern Military Districts (Siberian region).  China will participate as will India, Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan.  This is the first time all three branches of China’s military (Air Force, Navy, and Army) have participated in a war game with Russia.

·       EU Foreign Ministers to hold informal meetings to discuss the War in Ukraine. Among the key issues they will discuss is a proposal to place a blanket ban in Russian tourist visas.

·       Denmark hosts the Baltic Security Summit in Bornholm.

·       The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in Brussels to further mediate the territorial dispute between the two countries.

·       The EU Parliament Committee looking into the use of Pegasus and equivalent surveillance spyware meets in Brussels.  This meeting comes in the wake of the recently revealed Greek wiretap scandal involving Nikos Androulakis, Member of the European Parliament and President of Greece’s Movement for Change party and Panhellenic Socialist Movement. 

·       Switzerland hosts 10th meeting of State Parties to the UN Convention on Cluster Munitions in Geneva.

·       The UK will see 40,000 BT and Openreach members of the Communications Workers Union go on a 48-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany inflation rate (August), import prices (July)

·       Spain inflation rate (August), retail sales (July)

·       Italy industrial sales (June)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (July), Mortgage Approvals (July), Net Lending to Individuals (July)

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (August), Industrial Sentiment (August), Selling Price Expectations (August), Service Sentiment (August), Consumer

Confidence (August), Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Hungary interest rate decision

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Victory Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya will swear in President-Elect William Ruto.  However, the Kenyan Supreme Court is considering a petition by the opposition party challenging the election results (see below)

·       Kenya’s Supreme Court holds a pre-trial conference on a petition challenging the outcome of the recent presidential elections.  

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·      South Africa M3 money supply (July), Private Sector Credit (July)

Wednesday, 31 August 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 Environmental and Climate Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet to step down before her office publishes a report on human rights abuses in the Xinjiang Province in China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Trinidad and Tobago celebrate Independence Day.

·       US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to join UK Communications Workers who are on strike in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to speak at the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce.

·       The Dallas Federal Reserve will introduce its new president, Lorie Logan, at a virtual event where she will give remarks (5 p.m.)

·       US MBA 30-year mortgage rate (August), ADP Employment Change (August), Chicago PMI (August)

·       Canada GDP Growth (Q2 & June)

·       Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (July)

·       Colombia Unemployment rate (July)

·       Chile industrial production (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to appear in court to face charges of contempt following a weekend speech in which he reportedly threatened police officers and a magistrate.

·       Malaysia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (August), Housing Starts (July), Construction Orders (July), Capital Spending (Q2), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Infrastructure Output (July),  Government Budget Value (July)

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August), S&P Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (August), Home Loans (July), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q2) , Private Capital Expenditures (Q2), Building Capital Expenditures (Q2)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline expected to be shut down for unscheduled maintenance.

·       US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to join UK Communications Workers who are on strike in London.

·       The final Conservative Party hustings event will take place before Tory’s vote Monday on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany unemployment rate (August)

·       France inflation rate (August), GDP growth rate (Q2), Household consumption (July), PPIs (July)
Spain unemployment rate (August), Current Account (June)

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (August), CPI Flash (August)

·       Italy Inflation rate (August), PPIs (July)

·       Russia GDP (July), M2 Money Supply (July), Unemployment Rate (July) Real Wage Growth (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey GDP Growth (Q2)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMIs (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal’s Prime Minister Costa is scheduled to visit Mozambique to attend the 5th Portugal-Mozambique Summit to further strengthen bilateral political and trade ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kenya inflation figures (August)

·       Uganda inflation figures (August)

·       Namibia money supply (July)

Thursday, 1 September 2022:

Global

·       G-20 Digital Ministers meeting to be held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) holds its Health20 Summit in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       France assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador expected to submit legislation to the Mexican Congress to bring the National Guard under military control

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), S&P Manufacturing New Orders (August),  ISM Manufacturing PMI/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment figures (August), Construction Spending (July), Challenger Jobs Cuts (August), Initial Jobless Claims (August), Unit Labor Costs (Q2), Nonfarm Productivity (Q2)

·       Brazil GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada Building Permits (July)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru inflation rate (August)

·       Argentina tax revenue (August)

·       Colombia current account balance (Q2)

·       Chile economic activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China will allow Shanghai to reopen all schools after months of closures due to COVID.

·       Vietnam to celebrate National Day.  This will be a four-day national holiday.

·       Uzbekistan celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (August)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (August), Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Pakistan inflation rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU hosts the 6th Global Conference on Criminal Finances and Cryptocurrencies at the Hague, Belgium.

·       European Parliament holds a hearing on EU-Indo-Pacific trade relations.

·       Finland begins limiting Russian tourist visas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August), Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Italy GDP Growth (Q2), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Nigeria’s PMIs (August)

Friday, 2 September  2022:

Global

·       G-20 Energy Transitions Ministerial Meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (August), Unemployment Rate (August) Average Hourly Earnings (August), Factory Orders (August), Participation Rate (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August), Industrial Production (July)

·       Mexico FX reserves (July)

·       Argentina Tax Revenues (August)

·       Colombia exports (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India will formally launch its first domestically-produced aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August), FX reserves (July)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines inflation rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Informal Meeting of Ministers Responsible for Cohesion Policy to be held in Prague, Czech Republic.

·       European Parliament President Roberta Metsola visits Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany exports/imports/balance of trade (July), S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       France Budget Balance (July), Balance of Trade (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)

·       Eurozone PPIs (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, 3 September 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump to campaign in Pennsylvania for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France S&P Global Services  PMI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 4 September 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 T20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds a referendum on its newly crafted Constitution.  Current polls suggest it will be rejected by voters.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. visits Indonesia (through September 6) to discuss regional security issues including joint counterterrorism cooperation.  Marcos goes on to visit Singapore on September 6-7.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany hosts the International Metropolis Conference in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: August 14-21, 2022

The week ahead should be relatively quiet aside from the ongoing bloody grind of Russia’s war on Ukraine.  China has largely finished its military exercises around Taiwan, the US Congress has gone on a month-long holiday, and most of Europe is also on holiday, albeit under a scorching sun.  The real action this week will be on the economic front as markets await major economic reports globally.  Both the US and China report retail sales and industrial production data.  Japan reports inflation figures.  And we will see the Federal Reserve Board release minutes from the last meeting, giving us a little better insight into their thinking about future rate rises.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, 14 August 2022:

Global

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Bachelet visits Bangladesh to discuss human rights and the physical condition of more than 900,000 Rohingya Muslims who have fled genocide in Myanmar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China and Thailand begin joint Air Force exercise “Falcon Strike 2022”

Pakistan celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

 (July), retail sales (July), unemployment rate (July)

Japan GDP (Q2), private consumption (Q2), capital expenditure (Q2)

Thailand GDP (Q2)

Indonesia balance of trade/exports/imports (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

Nothing to report. 

Monday, 15 August 2022:

Global

The UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts is scheduled to release its final report on sanctions on Mali. The sanctions – brought by the UN, US, the EU, and a number of African nations -  were put in place following a coup in January by the ruling junta to avoid elections.  The junta has agreed to elections in 2024 that will be monitored by the UN and Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US and Turkish officials meet in Washington to discuss the sale of modernization kits for F-16 fighter jets for Turkey.

The one-year anniversary of the Taliban entering Kabul and the former Afghan government collapsing.

Peru’s government to define the 2022-2023 legislative agenda.

The US Congress is in recess until September.

President Biden is on holiday with his family.

LA Tech Week begins in Los Angeles, California and will feature remarks by many of the leading US tech CEOs.

Economic Reports/Events –

US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

Canada new motor vehicle sales (June), manufacturing sales (June), wholesale sales (June)

Brazil inflation rate (July), Central Bank Focus Market readout, IBC-BR economic activity (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumino Kishada is expected to present to the Japanese Diet a stimulus package to address the country’s rising food and energy costs.

2022 Business Advantage Papua New Guinea Investment Conference held in Brisbane, Australia.

APEC holds 3rd Senior Officials Meeting (SOM#) and related meetings.

India celebrates its 75th Independence Day ending British rule.

Japan marks the 77th anniversary of its surrender to Allied Forces, ending World War II in the Pacific.

South Korea celebrates Liberation Day and large-scale demonstrations are expected in Seoul.

Economic Reports/Events –

China Peoples Bank of China sets MLF rate, retail sales (July)  house price index (July)

Japan industrialized production (June), capacity utilization (June)

Australia central bank minutes

Philippines overseas remittances (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Leaders of Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden will hold a Nordic Council meeting in Oslo, Sweden. 

The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic expected to begin trials of British, Swedish, and Croatian citizens captured fighting on behalf of Ukraine.

UK barristers are likely to strike over legal aid funding.

UK union members at Liverpool’s container ports expected to strike over pay and work conditions.

Assumption Day (a Roman Catholic Feast Day) and a public holiday in France, Italy, and Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany wholesale prices (July)

Russia expected to convert depositary receipts of Russian companies on foreign exchanges into shares on the Russian Stock Exchange.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Iran faces a deadline to respond to an EU proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear accords.

Economic Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia inflation rate (July)

Turkey budget balance (July), auto production (July)

Israel CPIs (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nigeria inflation report (July)

Botswana inflation report (July)

Tuesday, 16 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Wyoming and Alaska hold primary elections (Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) faces a tough primary challenge).  And Alaska holds a special election to fill the seat left open by the death of Representative Don Young (R-AK)

Brazil’s political candidates are allowed starting today to run television and internet campaign ads.

Costa Rica and Ecuador to begin negotiations on a free trade deal.

Caribbean leaders will gather in the Bahamas to discuss the regions approach to the COP27 Climate Talks in Egypt being held in November.

Elvis Presley died 45 years ago this day.

Economic Reports/Events –

US housing starts (July), building permits (July), industrial production (July), manufacturing production (July), Redbook (August), capacity utilization (July)

Canada housing starts (July), inflation rate (July), CPIs (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June), Reuters Tankan Index (July), machinery orders (June)

India WPI food/fuel/manufacturing/inflation (July), balance of trade/imports/exports (July)

Australia wage prices (Q2), Westpac Leading Index (July), wage price index (Q2)

Indonesia property price index (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Nordic Council (see above/yesterday) will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Oslo, Sweden.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

UK unemployment rate (June), claimant count change (July), average earnings (June), labour productivity (Q2)

Czech Republic PPIs (July)

Poland inflation figures (July)

Romania’s central bank minutes (July0

Eurozone balance of trade (June), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, 17 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks in New Hampshire at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics “Politics & Eggs” event – a prelude to a likely presidential run.

Economic Reports/Events –

US Federal Reserve Board minutes,  30-year mortgage rate (August), retail sales (July), business inventories (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Indonesia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan balance of trade/exports/imports (July), machinery orders (July)

Australia unemployment rate (July), participation rate (July)

Singapore export (July), NODX (July)

Hong Kong unemployment rate (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti to discuss rising tensions with Serbia.  He then meets with Serbian President Alexandr Vucic tomorrow (Thursday).

Economic Reports/Events –

UK inflation rate (July), retail price index (July), PPIs (July)

Eurozone employment change, GDP growth rate (Q2)

Russia PPIs (July)

Hungary GDP (Q2)

Poland GDP (Q2)

Romania GDP (Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

42nd Southern African Development Community Summit of the Heads of State and Government in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Guinea’s opposition political coalition to launch country-wide protests against the ruling military junta.

Kenyan deadline to announce recent presidential election results.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa retail sales (June)

Zambia central bank interest rate decision

Namibia central bank interest rate decision

Ghana PPIs (July)

Thursday, 18 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

NASA’s Artimis 1 Moon Mission rocket will be rolled into place for lift-off at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/Fed CAPEX Index (August), initial jobless claims (August), existing home sales (July), CB Leading index (July), 30-year TIPS Auction

Canada PPIs (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Indonesia current account (Q2), motorbike sales (July)

Philippines central bank meeting

Sri Lanka central bank meeting

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Spain balance of trade (June)

Eurozone CPIs (July), inflation rate (July), construction output (June)

Norway central bank interest rate decision.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey central bank interest rate decision, FX reserves (August)

 Egypt merchandise trade balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa building permits (June)

Friday, 19 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Trade Representative’s deadline to submit a request to continue August 23, 2018 China section 301 tariff action.

The US Energy Association will hold a briefing on nuclear power and how they see the approximately $30 billion in funding being provided by the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act will help rebuild the US’ nuclear power industry.

Brazil’s Petrobas shareholders’ meeting to evaluate candidates for the board of directors.

Economic Reports/Events –

Canada retail sales (June)

Mexico retail sales (June)

Argentina's leading indicator (July)

Argentina and the Inter-American Development Bank to sign an agreement on an $80 million loan to small- to medium-sized enterprises.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan inflation rate (July)

Indonesia loan growth (July)

India FX reserves (August)

Malaysia exports/imports/balance of trade (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Montenegro’s Parliament is expected to hold a no-confidence vote against the minority government after it signed a an agreement with the Serbia Orthodox Church – a measure strongly opposed by human rights groups and pro-western Montenegran political parties.

The UK is bracing for 10,000 rail and bus drivers to go on strike, mostly in the London area.

Economic Reports/Events –

UK retail sales (July), public sector net borrowing (July)

Eurozone current account (June)

Poland gross wages (July), industrial production (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Bloomberg monthly economic survey

Nigeria PSCE (July), M2 money supply (July)

Saturday, 20 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Argentina leading indicator (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Hungary celebrates State Foundation Day, a public holiday.

The UK braces for yet more strikes from rail and transportation workers over pay and work conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel forward average CPI forecasts (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Sunday, 21 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Hawaii celebrates Statehood Day, making it the 50th state of the union in 1959.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

China loan prime rate (1Y & 5Y)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins a state visit to Canada.

The UK will see a one-day strke by container port workers at Felixstowe.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Moscow Further Turns the Energy Screws on Eastern Europe

Russia has halted oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline, which takes Russian oil across Ukraine to refineries in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. They cut the flow five days ago.  

This is a significant move by Moscow, putting Central Europe - the rest of the EU - in an increasingly tense energy security scenario. Meteorologists are still finalizing most long-range weather assessments for 2022-2023, but early indications suggest the EU will see colder than average conditions and above-average snowfall this winter.

Notably, Hungary is a victim of the cut-off. Hungary’s Prime Minister, Victor Orbán, has long been friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin likely sees Hungary as a weak point to be exploited in the EU’s opposition to the war and is applying greater pressure on the country to exacerbate internal EU tensions over support for the war.  

In the coming three months, markets should anticipate an escalation of Russian-influenced risk on both the energy security and food security front - particularly on the food front as Moscow is seeking to cause crises across the Middle East and Africa. We will be reporting more on this in the coming weeks.