The Global Week Ahead: October 23 - 30, 2022

Perhaps the most significant event to watch this week is not a traditional calendar item:  Will Ukrainian forces capture Kherson from Russian invaders, and what will this mean for the future of the war in Ukraine?  We will be watching what happens there closely.  Also this week, we will be watching the “Davos in the Desert” – Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, which begins Tuesday and will draw some of the world’s most prominent business leaders and political leaders.  The meeting comes amidst heightened tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia but will still likely draw many top US business leaders.  Finally, Brazil will hold its hotly contested presidential run-off election next Sunday. Polls suggest it will be a close outcome and, at this point, might be too close to call.

On the economic front this week, China is expected to release a host of key economic reports, but markets will be holding their breath to see if that happens after Beijing unexpectedly suspended the release of GDP data last week.  Meanwhile, markets will be watching US GDP and initial unemployment figures to better understand the risk of a recession. Markets are already watching the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan closely as they deliberate interest rate decisions.  We would also note that this week Russia’s central bank will decide whether to raise rates - an indicator of how impactful sanctions have or have not been on the country.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The National Congress of the Communist Party of China concludes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Jibun Bank’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Italy’s new government led by Giorgia Meloni (who is expected to become Italy’s first female Prime Minister) is sworn into office.

• A delegation of German parliamentarians (the second in recent weeks) travels to Taiwan (through October 26th).

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Egypt holds the Egyptian Economic Conference looking at Egypt’s economic challenges and opportunities.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, October 24, 2022:

Global

• Today is United Nations Day as well as World Development Information Day.

• The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s security mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman travels to Japan for high-level talks with her Japanese and South Korean counterparts to discuss Russia and North Korea.

• The US Congress remains out of session until November 14th. There are 15 days until the mid-term elections November 8th.

• The US Securities industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) holds its annual meeting in New York. SEC Chair Gary Gensler, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are scheduled to speak.

• A criminal tax-fraud case against the Trump Organization begins in New York.

• Ontario holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (September)

• Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (August & September), FDI (September)

• Chile PPIs (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan’s Cultural Affairs Agency will hold an expert panel meeting on the Unification Church operations in Japan. The Church is now formally known as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification. This goes to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was killed by someone who was upset by the Unification Church and its relationship with the ruling Liberal Party.

• Sri Lanka celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industry Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), House Price Index (September)

• Japan Jibun Bank Services/Composite/Manufacturing PMIs (October)

• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

• Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• EU environmental ministers will seek to approve the EU’s general negotiating mandate for the upcoming UNZ Climate Change Conference and Biological Diversity Conference (COP27 and COP15, respectively).

• The European Union Military Committee’s Chiefs of Defense meeting (through the 25th)

• Russia’s Valdai Discussion Club, a think tank, holds its 19th Annual Meeting in Moscow. Entitled “A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone,” it will have more than 100 experts, politicians, economists, and diplomats from 41 countries speaking. Russian President Putin will address the meeting on Thursday.

·         EU President Delivers a speech at the Global Grand Challenges Annual Meeting 2022 hosted by the European Commission and the Global Grand Challenges

• The UK’s Unite the Union, which are made up of port operatives, maintenance engineers, and control room workers at Liverpool’s docks, begin a two week strike over pay.

• The UK’s CWU (communications workers) at BT Group and Openreach – including emergency 999 call handlers – go on strike over pay.

• The UK’s GMB union, which represents ambulance workers votes over whether to go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• France S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Inflation Expectation (September)

• Qatar Total Credit Growth (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (September)

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (September) 

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• South Africa will host peace talks between Ethiopia and rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

• Zambia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for a briefing and consultations on the Middle East, including Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• In one of the most closely watched US Senate races, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) will debate Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz (R).

• Grenada celebrates Thanksgiving, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Redbook (October), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (August), House Price Index (August), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments, Richmond Fed Services Index (October),

• Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FGV Consumer Confidence (October), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October)

• Mexico Economic Activity (August)

• Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Taiwan hosts the 11th Global Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy. More than 70 countries will participate (through October 27th). The event will be kicked off with a conversation between Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and Ukraine’s Parliamentary Foreign Policy Chair Oleksandr Merezhko.

• Kazakhstan marks Republic Day, celebrating their independence from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China FDI ((September)

• Indonesia FDI (Q3)

• Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

• Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

• Singapore CPI (September), Core Inflation Rate (September) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU’s Transport, Transportation and Energy Council meets in Brussels to discuss the latest emergency package.

• President von der Leyen, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, co-hosts the International Expert Conference on the Recovery, Reconstruction and Modernization of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

• UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

• Spain PPIs (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Saudi Arabia hosts its annual Investment Conference in Riyadh. Known as the “Davos in the Desert,” The Future Investment Initiative will see many leading Wall Street CEOs and other global CEOs attend despite the heightened tensions between the US and the Kingdom. You can find the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

• Turkey Business Confidence (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

• Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

• Australia Federal Budget presented. It is the first budget to be presented by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August) 

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Washington, DC for the International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century.

• The Financial Times holds its Moral Money Summit Americas in New York. UN Special Envoy on Climate Action Mark Carney will speak.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds “The Asia Architecture Conference 2022.” Numerous senior US and Asian officials and business leaders are expected to watch.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• USA MBA Mortgage Indexes (October), New Home Sales (September), Building Permits (September), Goods Trade Balance (September), Retail Inventories/Wholesale Inventories (September)

• Canada Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and press conference

• Colombia Business Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds a two-day annual meeting. The Beijing headquartered multilateral lender has a membership of 105 countries.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Leading Economic Index (August), Coincident Index (August)

• Singapore Industrial Production (September)

• South Korea Business Confidence (October)

• Australia Inflation Rate (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), RBA CPIs (Q3) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• France Consumer Confidence (October), Employment Figures (September)

• Eurozone Loans to Households (September), Loans to Companies (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Russia Industrial Production (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Zimbabwe’s ruling party will begin a Congress to choose party leaders for the 2023 election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa 2022 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement

Thursday, October 27, 2022:

Global

• The UN Security Council holds a vote on Colombia and the UN mission in the Western Sahara.

• The G-20 Health Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez will appear at a court hearing in New York for drug trafficking charges he is facing.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3), Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (October)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (September), Bank Lending Rate (September), Net Payrolls (September)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Industrial Profits (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

• South Korea GDP (Q3)

• Australia Export/Imports Prices (Q3)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Vietnam FDI (October)

• Thailand Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• In the UK, the Royal British Legion launches its annual poppy appeal ahead of the remembrance of Armistice Day and Remembrance Day Sunday next month.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The ECB is expected to raise rates 75 basis points.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), Bavaria CPIs (October), Brandenburg CPIs (October)

• Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sales (August)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (October)

• Spain Unemployment Rate (Q3)

• Russia Corporate Profits (August), Business Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Lebanon and Israel will formally sign a historic maritime border demarcation deal, allowing both nations to drill for off-short natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Manufacturing PMIs (September)

• Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, Economic Confidence Index (October), Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3), FX Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa PPIs (September)

Friday, October 28, 2022:

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes on hold an open debate on issues in the Middle East. They will also hold votes on the UN peacekeeping missions in Somalia and Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• 60th Anniversary of the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Personal Income/Personal Spending (September), PCE Price Index (September), Michigan Consumer Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (October)

• Canada GDP (August), Budget Balance (August)

• Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Colombia Central Bank Interest Decision, Cement Productions (September)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan is expected to Cabinet approval for a new economic stimulus spending plan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & Quarterly Outlook Report and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko press conference, Unemployment Rate (September), CPIs (October)

• India FX Reserves (October)

• Australia PPIs (Q3)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment Rate (Q3)

• Vietnam Retail Sales (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation Rate (October0, Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• UK’s Conservative Party will elect a replacement for recently resigned Prime Minister Liz Truss.

• Deadline for the formation of a power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. If an agreement cannot be reached, the UK’s Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is expected to call an Assembly election.

• The Czech Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany GDP ((Q3), Inflation Rate (October), North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October), Hesse CPI (October), Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October), Saxony CPI (October)

• France GDP Growth (Q3), PPIs (September), Household Consumption (September), Inflation Rate (October)

• Spain GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

• Italy PPIs (September), Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

• Poland Inflation Rate (October)

• UK Insolvency Figures (September)

• Eurozone’s Economic Sentiment/Industrial /Consumer Sentiment Reports (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

• ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 29, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Slovakia holds municipal and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 30, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, suggesting a statistical tie.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.

• Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).

• European Daylight Savings Time ends.

• Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Unemployment Rate (September)

• South Africa Private Bank Lending (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report

The Global Week Ahead: October 16-23, 2022

The markets will be paying close attention to China historic 20th National Congress of the Communist Party where President Xi Jinping will be handed an unprecedented third term in office.  But we expect there will be much more important announcements coming during the course of the week as Xi steers China into a new direction politically, socially, and economically. 

We will also be watching a number of major EU meetings this week focused on how the EU deals with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, its impact on Europe’s economy, and how best to mitigate the impact.  Russia continues to suffer significant losses to Ukrainian Forces and concerns about what Russian President Putin might do via asymmetric warfare mount.  In the United States, Washington is fairly quiet as we are 22 days away from the mid-term elections.

Economically, we expect it to be another tough week for economic data globally. Inflation data will be coming out from a number of leading nations.  In particular,  China will be releasing a host of key data reports this week.  But markets may be watching most intensely data coming out of the UK giving a deeper sense of overall economy and inflation. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       The UN World Health Summit 2022 begins in Berlin (through October 18th)

·       The UN observes World Food Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s two presidential candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, participate in a televised debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

·       The 28th Public Works Minister Meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be held through Oct. 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September), PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 17, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The UN Development Program launches the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index looking at the diversity of poverty and reveals new patters that can help target development efforts worldwide.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the election.  They are expected to resume work on November 14th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Peru Unemployment Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (August), Tertiary Industry Index (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Industrial Production (September)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore Balance of Trade

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to approve a monitoring mission of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange views on the Russian war on Ukraine.  They will also discuss issues related to ethe COP 27 meeting and the situation in Ethiopia.

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets (through October 18th) to reach a political agreement on the fixing of fishing opportunities in 2023 the Baltic Sea.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz welcomes Spain’s King Filipe as part of an official visit.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Ms. Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       France’s President Emmanuel Macron opens the Paris Motor Show.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo speaks on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Euro at the Consejo General de Economistas de Madrid in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a roundtable event “For a New European Fiscal Framework” organized by Bocconi University and Deutsche Bank (a live streaming event).

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Turkic States’ foreign affairs ministers will informally meet in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September), Auto Production (September)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma resumes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria BCB Focus Market Readout, Inflation Report (September)

Tuesday, October 18, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the UN stabilization mission to Mali and then a briefing in the afternoon on the UN Mission in Kosovo.

·       The UN convenes the 25th Session of the Committee of Experts on International Cooperation in Tax Matters in Geneva.

·       The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism cohosts a two-day conference with the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on “International and Regional Border Security and management Cooperation to Counter Terrorism and Prevent the Movement of Terrorists” in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Redbook (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (August)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets to prepare for the EU Council meeting on October 20-21.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with the EU College of Commissioners.

·       France's General Confederation of Labor (CGT) union will hold country-wide strikes to demand higher wages.

·       The UK’s BBC celebrates its 100th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnable participates in an alumni event at the University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       UK 30-year Treasury Gilt Auction

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait will hold its first parliament session since the general election in September.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates Restoration of Independence Day.

·       Qatar officially opens the Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, which is integral to the country’s ambition to host the first net-zero World Cup later this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September).

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022:

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets to on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals.

·       The UN Security Council holds in the morning a briefing on the UN’s Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic. In the afternoon,

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House will host a workshop with 50 representatives from consumer product groups, manufacturing companies, and tech think tanks regarding the National Security Council’s plans for consumer product cybersecurity labeling program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index and other Key Indexes (October), Housing Starts/Building Permits (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September), CPIs and PPIs (September), Raw Materials (September)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will hold its finance ministers meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, through Oct. 21.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his maiden policy address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Tripartite Social Summit meets in Brussels to discussion “tackling the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis: How to protect the economy, businesses, and workers.”  Attendees include EU President Ursala von der Leyen, leaders of BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation, SGI Europe, SMEunited, and CEC European Managers.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate on the preparation of the European Council meeting (being held October 20-21)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Retail Price Index (September) 10-year Gilt Treasury Auction

·       Eurozone CPI (September), Inflation Rate (September), Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPIs (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September), Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 20, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook will give remarks at the “At Exploring Careers in Economics” conferences sponsored by the Federal Reserve.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give pre-recorded remarks at the 2022 Federal Reserve Community Development Research Seminar Series: Toward an Inclusive Recovery.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/CAPEX Index/New Orders/Business Conditions (all October), Existing Home Sales (September), CB Existing Home Sales (September),

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September), Economic Activity (August), Leading Indicators (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia's election commission will meet to set a date for the 15th general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y for October)

·       Japan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (September)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       South Korea PPIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Council Meeting (through October 21st). They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, energy policy, economic issues, and external relations.

·       Informal meeting of Transport Ministers (Through October 21st)

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the EPP Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPIs (September)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       France Business Confidence

·       Eurozone Current Account (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August), Current Account (August)

·       Poland PPIs (September),  Employment Figures (September), Industrial Production (September), Industrial Production (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurasian Economic Union will hold its intergovernmental council in Yerevan, Armenia. 

·       Lebanon will elect a new president during a special parliament session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (October), Overnight Borrowing Rate (October), FX Reserves (October), Central Government Debt (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

Friday, October 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s Support Mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (September), New Housing Index (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)

·       India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September), Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets (day 2)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August), Wholesale Prices/Retail Prices (August)

·       Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 22, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Steve Bannon, a former aide to President Trump, will be sentenced for contempt of Congress and defying subpoena convictions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida headlines a list of speakers at the Mt. Fuji Dialogue 2022.  The theme of this year’s Dialogue,  is “The US-Japan Alliance in the Age of Strategic Competition.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde attends and participates in “Mein Liblingsstück” event (my favorite piece) at the Alte Opera in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovenia holds presidential elections.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari, Italian President Serio Mattarella join Pope Francis for the annual International Meeting of Dialogue and Prayer for Peace among World Religions in Rome (through October 25th).  The conference is expected to focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Talking Hedge Conference - Toronto: Panel Discussion on China’s Futures Markets

Last week I had the great pleasure of moderating a truly fantastic panel exploring and explaining China’s futures markets. From left to right: Me, Fanzine Hachemian of Eagle Investment Solutions, Misha Malyshev of Teza Technologies, and Greg Adamsick of Nashua USA LLC. These three gentlemen are giants of the Chinese futures markets. The discussion was a tour de force of how China has brilliantly developed a robust futures markets which is helping power their growth and coming to dominate the markets.

The Global Week Ahead: October 9 - 16, 2022:

Two events will dominate the global stage both politically and economically in the coming seven days: The first is the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, DC.  Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world will gather to discuss several critical issues but battling a global recession, and rising inflation will be paramount on the list.

This week’s second major event will be the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, beginning October 16th.  The Congress is widely expected to enshrine President Xi Jinping further into the country’s constitution, giving him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected to be adopted including the possibility of giving Xi the title of “chairman” – an honorific previously given only to Communist China’s founder Mao Zedong and a further sign of the extraordinary size and scope of Xi’s political power.

This week will be fairly quiet globally regarding economic data reports.  But watch for two significant reports on Thursday: The US will get updated inflation figures and unemployment numbers, and China will release inflation figures and export/import numbers, giving markets a better sense of the country’s economic trajectory.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 10, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank/International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings and related ancillary events begin and conclude October 16th.  The full schedule of events can be found HERE.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       The International Nuclear Safety Group (a part of the International Atomic Energy Agency) meetings in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 16th Plenary meeting.  It will also hold its 11th Emergency Special Session.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The United Nations marks World Mental Health Day.

·       The Nobel Committee awards the Nobel Prize for Economics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Columbus Day, a federal holiday (the stock market is open, bond markets are closed)

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the November 8th mid-term elections.

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day, a national holiday.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives a speech  on “Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Chicago, Illinois

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates the 77th anniversary of its founding.

·       Taiwan celebrates National Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October), NAB Business Confidence (September), Building Permits (August), Private House Approvals (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President von der Leyen is in Estonia to meet Estonian Prime Minister Katja Kallas and President Alar Karis, as well as deliver a keynote address at Tallinn Digital Summit.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Berlin.  The two countries have been verbally jousting over energy supply policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds a meeting – a “National Dialogue” - for Palestinian leaders in a bid to find common ground among the various factions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production Rate (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (August), Auto Production (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union are set to being a strike against Transnet SOC Ltd, South Africa’s largest port and freight rail operator.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Report (September)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August & September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September) 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022:

Global

·       The IMF publishes its annual Global Financial Stability Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (September), Redbook (October), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Sports Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current (September), Reuters Tankan Index (October), Machinery Orders (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Energy ministers in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 12th)

·       The UK Supreme Court begins hearing arguments from the Scottish National Party over whether they can legislate a referendum for independence without the Westminster government’s permission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President & CEO of the Institute for International Finance at the IIF Annual Members Meeting in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the keynote speech at the 7th SUERF, CGEG, COLUMBIA, SIPA, EIB and SOCIETE GENERALE Conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy” in New York.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria does a fireside chat with Tim Adams at the 20222 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane does a fireside chat at the New York Fed’s Central Banking Seminar in New York.

·       UK Unemployment figures (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia Current Account (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Britain’s High Court of Justice hears a further legal challenge to the country’s deal with Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Wednesday, October 12, 2022: 

Global

·       The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, DC (all are here for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consolation on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on “New Technologies, the Fed, and Inclusion” at the 2022 D.C. Fintech Week in Washington, DC

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech “Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Tool: Considerations for the Current Economic Environment” at the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, PPIs (September), MBA Mortgage Rate (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October), WASDE Report,

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A court in Myanmar is expected to hand down additional verdicts on corruption charges against Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Prime Minister.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States holds a summit for foreign ministers in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (September), Bank Lending (September), PPIs (September)

·       Australia Consumer Confidence Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Indonesia Car & Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Manufacturing Production (August), Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers begin meetings in Brussels, chaired by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

·       EU President von der Leyen delivers a speech at the EU Ambassadors Conference.  She later meets with the College of Commissioners.

·       Informal Meeting of Employment and Social Affairs Minister in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 13th).

·       Spain celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President and CEO of the Institute for International Finance at their 2022 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       UK GDP (August), Construction Output (August), Goods Trade Balance non-EU (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Industrial Production (August), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Industrial Production (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, October 13, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Oil Market Report (October) released.

·       The Arctic Circle Assembly begins in Reykjavik.

·       The UN Security Council holds a consultation on the situation in Yemen.

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representative’s January 6th Investigative Committee will hold their likely last big hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core Inflation Rate (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), CPI (September)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the 30th Anniversary Summit of the Conference on the Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       Taiwan will end mandatory quarantines for visitors to the island other than those coming from China, Macao, and Hong Kong. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (September), New Yuan Loans (September), Outstanding Loan Growth (September), Total Social Financing (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

·       South Korea Imports/Export Prices (September)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbikes Sales (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council  meetings to discuss the state of investigations and prosecutions of Russians for war crimes (through October 14th).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK BoE Credit Conditions Survey

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament meets to try again to come to an agreement on the countries next President.  Previous efforts have failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold/Mining Production figures (August)

Friday, October 14, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Retail Sales (September), Import Price Figures (September), Export Prices (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Current Conditions/5-Year Inflation Expectations/Consumer Expectations Inflation Expectation Reports (October), Business Inventories (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the United States begin the 15th joint military exercise called “Yudh Abhyas” in Uttarakhand, 60 miles from the disputed India-China border.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves ((October), Passenger Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Indonesia WPI Fuel (September), WPI Manufacturing (September), WPI Food (September), WPI Inflation (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing (September), PPIs (August), Services PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of Eurogroup ministers in an inclusive format with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington DC (as they will all be in Washington DC for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September), MI Money Supply (September), Manufacturing PMI (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 15, 2022:

Global

·       The Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee holds its annual conference in Washington DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane patriciates in the Annual global macro and digital annual program organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC) in Washington DC.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: October 2 – 9, 2022:

It is another eventful week ahead but leading the list is China’s Seventh Plenum of the 19th Party Congress next Sunday, October 9th.  The Plenum is where China’s all-powerful Central Committee reviews and approves all documents and proposals to be considered at the 20th Party Congress, which commences October 16th (it will be at the October 16th Congress where President Xi Jinping is expected to be given an unprecedented third term as China’s President).  

Also, this week OPEC+ will meet virtually to discuss oil prices and are expected to cut output by as much as 500,000 barrels a day to keep oil prices above $90.  Meanwhile, EU leaders will be meeting this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine, exploding energy prices in the EU, and how to cap them. 

Also, this week, beginning Monday, the Nobel Prizes announce their annual prizes for everything from chemistry to literature to peace.  The award for economics will be announced the following Monday (October 10th).

Closer to home, the US Congress has left until after the mid-term elections (now a month away), but the US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet to review and approve a report which will be the framework for regulating crypto markets.

On the economic front, we will be watching a host of PMIs being reported across Europe and Asia this week – all of which will factor heavily into next week’s IMF/World Bank meetings.  We will also be watching closely new US jobless data.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of German members of parliament arrive for an official visit of Taiwan for the first time since 2019.

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 3, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna, Austria.  It is expected they will discuss the Iranian nuclear weapons program, President Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons, and North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physiology or Medicine in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets to review and approve the report required by President Biden on digital assets.  The report – “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets” – will serve as the framework for the Administration’s regulation of crypto.

·       Canada holds general elections in Québec.

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Puerto Rico to inspect the damage from Hurricane Fiona.

·       The US Supreme Court opens its fall term.  They will hear cases this session dealing with voting rights, the independence of state legislatures, and environmental cases.

·       The US Senate and House of Representatives are out of session until after the midterm elections on November 8th.  Both chambers are expected to return November 14th. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson gives a speech on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Lessons from the Pandemic and the Path Ahead” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       US ISM’s Manufacturing PMI/Prices/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment Reports (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September), FX Reserves (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Colombia Exports (August), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Senior Officials are expected to meet through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       ASEAN Senior Economic Officials Meeting through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

·       Meeting of the ASEAN Coordinating Council Working Meeting

·       Australia celebrates Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPIs (September)

·       Indonesia Inflation Data (September)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August), Building Permits (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (September)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to meet and have a working dinner in Berlin (if Chancellor Scholz has recovered from COVID in time).

·       The European Parliament holds its first October plenary session through October 6th.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss the macroeconomic situation in the Euro area and policy responses to high energy prices as well as inflationary pressures.  ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

·       Russia’s lower parliament expected to ratify President Putin’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.

·       Germany celebrates Unification Day – 32 years since East and West Germany were reunited.

·       Bank of England’s Catherine Mann will be a panelist at the CDB Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Initiative.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      South Africa hosts Africa Oil Week in Cape Town.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Angola FX Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 4, 2022:

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) commences.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physics in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US’s NASA and SpaceX plan to launch the 5th crewed mission to the International Space Station from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  If weather or other reasons do not permit launch today, NASA will seek to launch on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (October), JOLTs Job Openings (August), Factory Orders (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (September)

·       Australia central bank (RBA) interest rate decision (likely 50 bps), RBA Financial Stability Review and Chart Pack, Commodity Prices (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore G&P Global PMI (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (Ecofin) meets to discuss the economic situation and high energy prices.  It will also approve conclusions on climate finance ahead of the COP 27 meeting in Egypt in November.

·       Russia’s Upper Chamber of Parliament expected to approve the annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Luxembourg.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the keynote speech and participates in a panel at the FMA Supervisory Conference 2022 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Spain Unemployment Changes (September)

·       Eurozone PPI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Central Bank monetary policy report released.

·       Nigeria PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting via videoconference.  It is expected they move to cut output.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Chemistry in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       The G-20 Civil Society Summit is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The G-20 Parliamentary Speakers Summit is held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for American States (OAS) holds its 52nd General Assembly in Lima, Peru. 

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Florida to inspect the damage from Hurricane Ian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US ADP Employment Change (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), MBA Mortgage Rates and other data (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI/Orders/Business Activity/New Orders/Employment (September)

·       Canada Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), Building Permits (August)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz holds a summit with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in A Coruña (in Galicia, Spain).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Cyprus.

·       Germany Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya PMIs (September)

·       Uganda PMIs (September)

·       Zambia PMIs (September)

·       Ghana PMIs (September)

Thursday, October 6, 2022: 

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) meets today and tomorrow in Geneva, Austria.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at Georgetown University in Washington DC outlining the agenda for the IMF’s Annual meeting which takes place next week.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Literature in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives her first speech as Governor at The Peterson Institute for International Economics.  She will give present on the US economic outlook.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Mark C. Berger Workshop Series in Lexington, Kentucky.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Jobless Claims (4-week average)

·       Canada IVEY PMI (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports/Production (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka’s Parliament expected to debate a bill to amend the Constitution curtailing presidential powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Household Spending (August), FX Reserves (September)

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community (EPC meets in Prague in advance of the informal heads of state meeting Friday.

·       Norway’s government presents its 2023 budget to the Storting (Parliament)

·       Kazakhstan/s ruling Amanat Party to hold an extraordinary Party Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

Poland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       Uganda interest rate decision

Friday, October 7, 2022:

Global

·       United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s World Food Price Index (September)

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Peace in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment Figures (September), Consumer Credit Change (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate Figures (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Chile Inflation Figures (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (September), Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (September)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU holds an informal meeting of heads of state in Prague to discuss Ukraine, energy, and the economy.

·       The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility will present their initial analysis of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plan as presented out last week.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin turns 70.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), FX Reserves (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (September),  Mortgage Rates (September), Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Italy Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September), FX Reserves (September), Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Poland FX Reserves (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (September)

·       Israel FX Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (September)

·       Ghana interest rate decision

·       Tanzania inflation figures (September)

·       Mauritius inflation figures (September)

Saturday, October 8, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

·       Political/Social Events –

·       Scotland’s National Party (SNP) annual conference is held in Aberdeen.

·       The UK expects a 24-hour strike of the national train workers – the RMT union – over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

SumZero Presents: A Global Macro Policy Discussion with Manoj Ramnani and Frank Kelly

Last week, I had the great pleasure of being part of a fun and fascinating macro policy discussion with Manoj Ramnani, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of 93 East Capital. Our talk was moderated by Griffin Marie of SumZero.

We covered a great deal of ground in an hour: Everything from Russia and Ukraine to China to the dollar's strength and commodity prices. If you are interested in seeing our discussion, you watch it HERE.

Fulcrum Macro Advisors Washington Week Ahead: Will We See A Government Shutdown? And Are We Reaching New Inflection Points in Russia and Iran?

Monday and Tuesday morning will be quiet here in Washington as Congress is out of session for Rosh Hashanah. That leaves them little time to get a stop-gap federal funding bill done before the government runs out of money on Friday.  

Typically, getting a short-term funding bill through Congress is relatively easy – although the markets have experienced their fair share of government shutdowns (10 to be precise since 1980. The longest was in 2018-2019 and lasted 35 days).    

To avoid another shutdown, the Senate returns to work Tuesday afternoon and hopes to pass such a bill, but it is particularly complicated this time around. Why? What to do with Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) oil/gas permitting bill. Recall that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) promised Manchin they would support his legislation that would significantly expand the permitting of oil and gas drilling in return for his support of the Inflation Reduction Act. 

 The complication? More than 70 House Progressive Democrats have gone on record opposing the bill, and most Congressional Republicans also are going to fight it (not that they oppose expanding permitting but because they do not want to give Manchin or the White House a victory this close to the November mid-terms).

You can find a summary HERE for details of what is in the Manchin bill.  The big question: Will Pelosi and Schumer successfully attach Manchin’s bill to the short-term funding bill? Or is there too much risk  it will cause a government shutdown this close to the election?

The temporary funding bill – which will keep the money flowing until December 16th, when Congress is back from the mid-terms and can move to either vote on a final budget or temporarily extend the funding again – will have other add-ons, including $12 billion more in military and economic aid to Ukraine, funding for the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, and financing for resettling Afghan refugees as well as heating assistance for low-income families.

 Beyond this bill, Congress is working on getting out of town as fast as possible to campaign for the final four weeks before the November mid-terms. 

Looking abroad, we will be watching closely what is happening in Russia and Ukraine this week. Russia has rushed through a “vote” to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya regions, making them formally a part of Russia. Hence, any attacks by Ukrainian forces will be categorized by Moscow as an attack on Russia itself. The elections are clearly a sham (there are credible reports that 13 and 14-year-old Ukrainians have been forced to vote at gunpoint for the annexation) and show how desperate the situation has become for Russian President Putin.

Concurrent with the annexation vote, Putin is moving forward to mobilize at least 300,000 new troops. Reports suggest that the State Duma (Parliament) has given Putin the authority to draft as many as 1 million men. Resistance is significant – reports of men fleeing abroad are extraordinary. On Friday, we talked with a friend in Almaty, Kazakhstan, who told us of large groups of young Russian men who had fled the mobilization last week, milling around in public parks, cafes, and hotels, talking about how to find work and not be sent back to Russia.  It is now evident knowledge of the failures of the Russian Army and casualty rates are much better known by the general Russian public than previously thought (we would note the New York Times recently published estimates of between 80,000 and 110,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in the past seven months).  

Add to this news reports in official Russian press of both borders being closed and possible imposition of martial law, and we are hitting a massive inflection point in the war.  

Elsewhere, the situation in Iran also bears close watch. Protests across the country have continued to grow as average Iranian citizens show their anger at police brutality after the morality police arrested a 22-year-old woman for allegedly violating the hijab dress code.  She died in captivity from torture.   This event, along with intense overall frustration with social restrictions and ever-growing economic malaise.  Of note from a US perspective is the US Treasury’s expansion of sanctions on Iran’s morality police as the negotiations with Iran over restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – otherwise known as the nuclear deal – continue and the Biden Administration issuing a license to relax sanctions in internet services in Iran to help “support the free flow of information for Iranians.  We do not see, at this point in time, much likelihood of the protests resulting in a change of government.  But it does show the growing unhappiness among the general Iranian public with little change for improvement. 

Finally, we would note the potential market impact of Italy’s elections yesterday. The right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni won a sweeping victory.  It was a massive political comeback story for Meloni and her party, Brother of Italy, which only won 4 percent of the vote in 2018.  

The question for markets in the short-term is can Meloni get the 2023 budget approved by the EU by the end of the year (as required). And will her coalition government be able to meet the 54 targets/conditions worked out with the European Commission to unlock the 3rd tranche payment (€19 billion)  from the Next Generation EU (NGEU) program? Also, will they honor the terms and repayment schedule of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) or, as Meloni promised in the campaign, seek to renegotiate it? 

Italy drew down the full €191.5 billion allocated to them in the NRRP to help battle the economic impact of COVID.  But Meloni wants to renegotiate the repayment, saying the Ukraine War is presenting Italy with a new set of challenges that need to be addressed, too.   

About those rumors of a coup in China…

Over the weekend, the internet was saturated with reports of an apparent coup in China, removing President Xi Jinping from power. The rumor, of course, comes in advance of the October 16th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), where Xi will be given an unprecedented third term as President.   

We spoke with several sources about the rumor and the risk of an actual coup and can find no validity to any of these rumors. US officials we talked to Sunday were not particularly concerned about the risk of a coup. 

As we understand it, Xi is likely self-quarantining following his attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan. We also know the schedule and invitations for the Congress were issued this past weekend, and Xi is among the listed attendees. Xi's name is all over the schedule – clearly, not something that would happen if Xi had been removed from power.

What is the genesis of the rumors, then?   One US government official pointed to Falun Gong, the quasi-religious dissent organization based in Deerpark, New York. 

The group has been the subject of intense suppression inside China and a ferocious critic of Beijing worldwide. The Falun Gong owns The Epoch Times (which has published stories speculating about a possible coup). 

Nevertheless, all the news around Bejing’s power machinations is worth watching as we approach the Congress.  The Congress will undoubtedly be a historical event simply for re-electing Xi for a third term. But we are likely to see other significant shifts in the power apparatus in Beijing, including Xi being granted the title of "chairman" – a title not used since Chinese Communist Party founder Mao Zedong and putting him on par with Mao.

Granting Xi such a title would be beyond simply rewarding him with a new honorific. Many observers believe it would signal a rejection of a significant portion of the Post-Mao reforms and a new path – politically, socially, and economically – under Xi and his philosophy which was inserted into the Chinese constitution in 2017. 

It is formally known as "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era" - or "Xi Jinping Thought" for short - and is focused on a return to a more strict form of Marxist-Leninism and the overall goals of communism. The Chinese Ministry of Education via educational research institutes, writings, and classroom teaching.  

We expect other major announcements to come out of the CCP Congress. But a coup removing Xi from power will likely not be one of them.

We hope this is helpful.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

the Global Week Ahead: September 25 - October 2, 2022

The coming week will see a number of elections around the world, most notably the first round of Brazil’s hard-fought presidential elections.  Also, this week,  Russia is expected to wrap up its sham referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk, formally annexing the regions as part of Russia.  We will also be closely watching two significant unscheduled events with significant geopolitical implications: The ongoing (and growing) protests and riots in Iran against the leadership in Iran and protests in Russia against President Putin’s mobilization of new troops for the war in Ukraine. 

 Here in Washington, President Biden hosts a US-Pacific Island Nation Summit to shore up relations and push back on China building stronger ties (and naval basing capacity) with these countries.

 On the global economic front, we are watching key unemployment numbers in the US later this week, several important economic figures out of China, and a slew of speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and European Central Bank board members. 

Finally, on a scientific note, we will watch Monday as NASA fires a rocket at an asteroid to try to knock it off course.  It is a test in case an asteroid is actually hurtling toward Earth – just like in the movies!

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe expected to begin a five-day visit to Japan to discuss debt restructuring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank’s  Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia continues to hold rushed referendums in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (regions in Ukraine seized by Russia) formally annexing the regions to become part of Russia.  The votes are expected to last through September 27.

·       Italy holds general elections.

·       The UK Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       São Tomé and Príncipe hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 26, 2022:

Global

·       The Annual General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency members begins in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear development as well as Russian President Putin’s recent threats to use nuclear weapons (as well as the ongoing Russian threat to nuclear reactors in Ukraine) will be top issues discussed.

·       The International Criminal Court begins the trial of accused perpetrators of the 2009 stadium massacre in Conakry, Guina.

·       Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, is celebrated.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN Human Rights Council discuss Venezuela.  The Council released a scathing report on September 20th detailing the Venezuelan governments responsibilities for a massive number of crimes against humanity in an effort repress dissent in the country.

·       Colombia and Venezuela to reopen shared border for the first time in three years.

·       NASA will launch a spacecraft into an asteroid in an effort to shove it off its course.  The exercise is designed to prepare for the risk of asteroid that might be hurtling toward Earth (destroying our planet) can be deflected, saving the world (just like in the movies!)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (June/July/August), Foreign Direct Investment (June/July/August)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan Central Bank release of minutes of monetary policy meeting (July), Speech by Bank Governor Kuroda in Osaka to business leaders.

·       Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (August)

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss food security issues arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food will join the discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives introductory statement at a European Parliament hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Asociación Espańola de Directivos in Madrid.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Payments and Securities Settlement in Europe Symposium in Frankfurt.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions (September)

·       Spain PPI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament to discuss the budget after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticized the government’s reform efforts as insufficient.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 27, 2022: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and the UN’s mission there.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese to speak at The Economic Club of Washington DC on “The State of the US and Global Economy.”

·       NASA will launch Artemis 1, the largest and most powerful rocket launched by the agency, in a series of complex missions leading to building a long-term presence on the Moon.

·       The US Senate is expected to hold a vote on a continuing resolution to keep the government open until December.  Markets will be watching to see if the promised Oil/Gas Permitting Bill sponsored by Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) will be included in it.  A large number Congressional Progressive Democrats along with Republicans are opposing it.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Durable Goods Orders (August), Redbook (September), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July), New Home Sales (August), CB Consumer Confidence (September), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (September(, Richmond Fed Services Index (September), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (Septmber)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August), Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Retail Sales (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s Unite members employed at Felixstowe port (one of the UK’s largest ports) to begin a second eight-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       France Unemployment figures (August)

·       Eurozone Loans to Households (August), Loans to Companies (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria interest rate decision

·       Seychelles interest rate decision

·       South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, September 28, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Joe Biden to host the first US-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, DC.  The Summit is seen as an effort to counter China’s growing influence over key Pacific Island nations as recently seen with Beijing’s ties with the Solomon Islands.

·       The White House holds the Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health.  President Biden will host with a number of cabinet officials expected to speak.

·       The House January 6th Committee meets -potentially for the last time – to hear testimony from several witnesses.

·       The National Bank of Canada and Bloomberg hold the 10th Annual Canadian Finance Conference (today and the 29th) to discuss the future of Canadian financial and business landscape. The meeting is virtual.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives welcoming remarks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri on “The New Landscape for Banking Competition.”

·       US MBA Mortgage Indexes (September), Goods Trade Balance (August), Retail Inventories (August), Pending Home Sales (August)

·       Brazil PPI (August), Banking Lending (August), Net Payrolls (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Asia Summit 2022 will be held in Singapore (through September 28).

·       Germany’s Air Force to conduct joint-training exercises with the Japanese Air Force in Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September(, Inflation Rate (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Atlantic Council and the Atlantik-Brücke host an all-day virtual Frankfurt Forum on US-European Geoeconomics.  ECB President Cristine Lagarde will deliver the keynote address.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Greens/EFA meeting in the European Parliament on the topic of “A European monetary policy for the planet and for the people.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Industrial Sales (July), Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Real Wage Growth (July), Unemployment Rate (August), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria’s presidential campaign season officially commences.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 29, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya and UN efforts in the country.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo speaks at the Atlantic Council on “The CHIPS and Science Act and Competing with China”.  Raimondo is expected to shed new light on federal funding to further build up the US semiconductor industry.

·       Fortune Magazine hosts Fortune’s Global Sustainability Virtual Forum.  Former Vice President Al Gore as well as CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland policy panel entitled “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022”.

·       US GDP Price Index (Q2), Growth Rate (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September), PCE Prices (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Corporate Profits (Q2), GDP Sales (Q2)

·       Canada GDP (July and August), CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (September), Non-Manufacturing PMI (September), Caixin Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Japan Labor Force Survey, Industrial Production (September), Unemployment Rate (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea Construction Output (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Australia Private Sector Credit (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and Industry) meetings to discuss the single market emergency instrument (SMEI) and the eco-design for sustainable products regulation (ESPR).

·       The City of London elections the new Lord Mayor.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives an introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives an online speech on “The future of Central Banking” on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary of the Lietuvos banks organized by the Bank for International Settlements and the Bank of Lithuania in Vilnius.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the OMFIF’s Sustainable Policy Institute in Amsterdam on “moving beyond climate: integrating biodiversity into financial markets”

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 2022 Research Workshop organized by the ECB on “Working Group on Stress Testing.”

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives remarks and participates in a panel discussion on “Central bank as a pool of real-time data: the ‘Whys” and the ‘Hows” hosted by the Bank for International Settlements and the bank of Lithuania in Vilnius.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Italy PPI (August)

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence (September), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (August), Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Friday, September 30, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the ongoing UN security stabilization effort in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives remarks on “Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board Conference “Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy” in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance on “The Principles for Large Bank Supervision”

·       US Personal Income (August), PCE Price Index (August), Personal Spending (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5 Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions Reports (September)

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (August), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Figures (August), Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Current Account (Q2)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence Index, New Housing Starts (September), Japan Finance Corporation Survey (October), Construction Orders (August)

·       India Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio, Government Budget Value (August), Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Infrastructure Output (August)

·       South Korea Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September), Coincident Index (August), Retail Sales (July)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to seek agreement on a proposed regulation on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices.

·       Today will be the last day paper 20- and 50-pound notes will be legal paper. They are being replaced by polymer notes.

·       UK’s Communications Workers Union begin two-day walkout (those employed by the Royal Mail).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion on “the Fight Against Inflation” hosted by the La Toja Forum in La Toja, Spain.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August), Unemployment Rate (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Great Britain GDP Rate (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August), KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

·       Spain Retail Sales (August), Current Account (July)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August), Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation rate (September)

·       Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Q2), Inflation Rate (September), CPI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (August)

Saturday, October 1, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China celebrates the founding of the People’s Republic of China and commences Golden Week national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Latvia holds parliamentary elections.

·       UK’s RMT and Asief (rail workers) unions begin first of two 24-hour strikes over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany institutes minimum wage increase to 12 euros an hour.

·       UK’s energy regulator, Ofgem, commences price cap on energy process.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: September 18-25, 2022

This week, the dominant geopolitical event of the week will be the United Nations 77th General Assembly's annual week-long General Debate. Heads of state from around the world will be attending and speaking – many coming directly from Queen Elizabeth II's funeral on Monday. Climate change, food and energy security challenges, and how to deal with Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine will dominate the week and the speeches of the various leaders addressing the assembly.

Economically, this is going to be the week of interest rate hikes. Central banks from around the world – led by the US Federal Reserve – are set to raise rates, some in quite dramatic fashion. The US is likely to raise rates 75 basis points. But watch for what Japan and Great Britain do, too (not to mention the central banks of Brazil, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Indonesia, Taiwan, Turkey, Egypt, and South Africa among others). And we will watch for any significant changes in jobless claims in the US on Thursday. Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 18, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi concludes a two-day visit to Armenia to show support for the country in the face of attacks from Azerbaijan.

·       Chile celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Paris holds a "No Car Day" to support carbon-free emissions.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 19, 2022:

Global

• The Bank of International Settlements publishes its quarterly report on global financial markets.

• The G-20 Trade, Investment, and Infrastructure Working Group meets in Bali, Indonesia.

• World Bank Group President David Malpass will take part in a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York on the state of the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The US Congress returns from the weekend facing the September 30 government funding deadline, one week from Friday. There has been some hope both parties will agree to a short-term funding plan until December 16, thus allowing Congress to leave early to head back home to campaign. But a major question has emerged as to whether to include the promised legislation to Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) expanding oil/gas permitting (which he got in return for supporting the Inflation Reduction Act). 

·       Progressive Democrats strongly oppose the measure. Manchin is expected to unveil the text of the bill sometime this week.

·       The US Senate is expected this week to take up the so-called Kigali Amendment, which would be the first climate treaty approved by the Senate in decades. Getting 67 Senators to vote in favor of the treaty is going to be tough, and it is uncertain at this time if it will pass.

·       The Clinton Global Initiative holds a two-day virtual summit.  Among those expected to speak are White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, BlackRock Chair and CEO Larry Fink, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. 

·       Fast Company is hosting its Innovation Festival through Thursday. The tech-focused event will interestingly have a big union focus as Amazon Labor Union President Christian Smalls and US Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh are both expected to speak. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US NAHB Housing Market Index (September)

·       Canada PPI (August), Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Hong Kong Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun and five well-known members of the  Democratic Front are due to appear in court.  They are accused of failing to properly register a huminatrian fund for which they were administrators.

·       Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to address the United Nations General Assembly. With the massive floods that have recently afflicted the country, it is expected he will focus heavily on climate change as a global risk.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Loan Prime Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Australia Central Bank Meeting Minutes released.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Great Britain's Queen Elizabeth II's state funeral in London.

·       Port operatives and maintenance engineers in Liverpool dock operations will go on strike over pay issues.

·       A group of approximately 80 Russian business leaders is expected to travel to Tehran this week to build stronger economic and financial ties.  The delegation's trip is a result of Iran becoming a member last week of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel at the Single Resolution Board Annual Conference in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos speech at the annual meeting Consejos Consultivos in Madrid.

·       Eurozone Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Israel and Lebanon are expected to announce this week a ground-breaking maritime agreement that will allow both countries to drill particularly rich natural gas fields off the coast of both countries.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 20, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly holds General Debate (through September 26). World leaders will gather to discuss the Ukraine war, the food and energy security crisis, COVID responses, climate change, and nuclear weapons by rough states. A full schedule of who is speaking and when can be found here.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Joe Biden to meet with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the United Nations to discuss mutual security issues.

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will meet with investors in New York to discuss possible investments in the country's natural resources as well as various sustainable development initiatives.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       The US Federal Reserve Board begins two days of meetings in advance of their interest rate decision tomorrow.

·       US Housing Starts (August), Building Permits (August), Redbook (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Malaysia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Philippines Employment Growth (August), Industrial Production (August), PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet with Bosnia and Herzegovina's leading Bosnian Serb politician, Milorad Dodik, in Moscow.  This is all part of Putin's efforts to pry away political elements of the EU to support his invasion of Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde to give the Karl-Otto Pöhl Lecture at the Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handle, Industrie und Wissenschaft in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul to speak at the AFME 17th Annual European Leveraged Finance Conference in London.

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August), SECO Economic Forecasts 

·       Eurozone Current Account (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Current Account (Q2)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Ghana GDP (Q2), PPI (August) 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Financial Services Committee will hold a full committee hearing where the CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Truist, US Bancorp, and PNC Financial Services will testify. The hearing is entitled "Holding Megabanks Accountable: Oversight of America's Largest Consumer Facing Banks." The Senate Banking Committee will hear from the same witnesses tomorrow.

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu will give a keynote address on the state of the banking sector at the EMERGE Financial Health 2022 Conference in Los Angeles, California.

·       Belize celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (September), Existing Home Sales (August)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (July), Private Spending (Q2), Aggregate Demand (Q2)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August), Unemployment Rate (Q2)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision\

·       Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)

·       India M3 Money supply (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to address the United Nations General Assembly.

·       Malta celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September), Public Sector net Borrowing ex-Banks (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (June), Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August),

·       Russia PPI (August), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of trade (August)

·       Israel Industrial Production (July)

·       UAE Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 22, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank President David Malpass will speak at a Politico Live event entitled "Tipping Points: Confronting Multiple Global Crises."

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing where the CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Truist, US Bancorp, and PNC Financial Services will testify. The hearing is entitled "Annual Oversight of the Nation's Largest Banks."

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will speak at the Atlantic Festival.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Current Account (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (Week of September 17), CB Leading Index (August), Kansas Fed Composite Index (September), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (September), 10-year TIPS Auction

·       Mexico Mid-Month Core Inflation (September)

·       Canada's new Housing Price Index (August)

·       Argentina Current Account (Q2)

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Cambodia's Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts is expected to hand down final verdicts on the communist Khmer Rouge regime's role in the genocide of 1975-1979 and the role of the former head of state, Khieu Samphan.

·       Pakistan’s Supreme Court will hold a hearing where they are expected to indict former Prime Minister Imran Khan of contempt of court.  He has also been charged with terrorism offences.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September), Unemployment Rate (August), M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account (Q2), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Services (September), S&P Composite (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB General Council meeting in Frankfurt.

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo speech at the Leaders in Finance AML Europe in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen speech at the 9th Conference on the Banking Union hosted by Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and the Goethe University's Institute for Law and Finance in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech at the Network Luxemburg-Frankfurt Financial Professionals meeting in Luxemburg.

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September), Overnight Lending Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Mali celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Friday, September 23, 2022:

Global 

·       The Autumn Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       The Federal Reserve hosts "Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy" - two panels with Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard moderating each.

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Composite PMI (September), S&P Services (September)

·       Canada Retail Sales (July), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The border between India and Bhutan is expected to reopen for the first time in 2 ½ years. It has been closed mostly because of COVID.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India FX Reserves (September), Bank Lona Growth (September 19), 

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Core Inflation (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence (Q3), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       UK Prime Minister Liz Truss to release her emergency mini-budget to revive the UK economy.  Due to the ongoing energy shock, the average household in the UK faces paying an additional 2,5000 pounds in the coming year.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Germany &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       France &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (September), S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI (September), CBI Distributive Trade (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September), GDP Growth ((Q2)

·       Switzerland Current Account (Q2)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Eurozone &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Ethiopia S&P Global Ratings to be released.

Saturday, September 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Italy holds general elections.  A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni is expected to sweep to power

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Guinea-Bissau celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September), Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank composite PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russia holds a second round of regional and local elections.

·       The UK Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.