The Global Week Ahead: September 11 - 18, 2022

This week, we will be watching closely the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Forum being held in Uzbekistan.  It is expected that Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines.  Of note, this is the first overseas trip Xi has taken in three years.  Putin, who is watching a significant portion of the Russian Army being routed in Ukraine now, will likely press attending countries to support Russia economically and perhaps in other ways.  Also, this week, the UK, as it prepares for next Monday’s funeral of Queen Elizabeth, faces a deadline on the EU’s complaint over trade controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (The Northern Ireland Protocol).

On the global economic and markets front, we will be watching the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday, where a former senior Twitter executive turned whistleblower will testify.  Also, this week, we will see important inflation data from the US and UK, as well as significant property sector data from China.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 11, 2022:

Global

·       The 21st anniversary of the terror attacks on New York and Washington, DC, is marked globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Okinawa gubernatorial election to be held

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Sweden holds general elections.

·       Spain’s Catalonia region celebrates National Day, coinciding with pro-independence demonstrations.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid makes a state visit to Germany and meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank Steinmeier in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kenyan President-elect William Ruto will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 12, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets through September 16. Heavy focus on Iran’s nuclear program, the IAEA’s recent mission to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant held by Russian military forces in Ukraine, and North Korea (which recently announced they would no longer abide by a “no first-strike” agreement.

·       The United Nations will hold a plenary meeting to close the 76th session.

·       The International Labor Organization (ILO) is expected to release its Global Estimates on Modern Slavery Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mexican Foreign Minister Ebrard in Monterrey, Mexico, as part of the US-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue.

·       The 74th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards is held in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Bank of Brazil Focus Market Readout

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Li Zhanshu, to visit Nepal to discuss mutual trade and security issues. This follows a visit to Moscow last week where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       India and China are scheduled to complete disengagement from the Gogra-Hot Springs area.  This is where Chinese and Indian soldiers engaged in violent clashes in 2020, where as many as 20 Indian troops were killed, and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed.

·       Australia’s Quantas and Emirates Airlines ground handlers go on strike for 24 hours over pay.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Machine Tools (August), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q3), PPI (August), Finance Ministry releases Business Outlook for July-September

·       India Industrial Production (July), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September), NAB Business Confidence (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Annual Conference of the Trade Union Congress begins in Brighton.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guidnos speech at the Foro Económico organized by El Norte de Castilla

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech at the 7th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Current Account (July)

·       UK GDP (July), Balance of Trade (July), Construction Output (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (July), Current Account (July), Auto Production (August)

·       UAE Loan Growth (June & July), M3 Money Supply (June & July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Tuesday, September 13, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nations begins the 77th General Assembly.

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization is expected to release its report on “the future of food and agriculture.”

·       The VII Congress of World and Traditional Religions begins in Kazakhstan (through September 15). Pope Francis to attend.

·       The 26th World Investment Conference to be held in Geneva, Switzerland. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island hold primaries – the final primary contests in advance of the November mid-term elections.

·       The US of House of Representatives returns from their August recess. The Senate returned last week. In the coming week, the two chambers will focus on getting a government funding deal done to fund the government until at least December 16. 

·       The US Senate Judiciary Committee will hear testimony from a Twitter whistleblower, Peiter Zatko, that is likely to be highly impactful to the ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter over his proposed acquisition of the company.

·       Bolivia’s President Luis Arce to inaugurate the Red and Green Lines of the new Cochabamba Mi Tren – Bolivia’s first metropolitan train system.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Core Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August), Redbook (September), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ((September), NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nepal’s Foreign Secretary Bharat Raj Paudyal to visit India to discuss bilateral trade and investment issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September), Machinery Orders (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The European Parliament will discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and will vote later in the week on a €5 billion macro-financial loan to help Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  Participates in a fireside chat and Q&A session at Barclays Global Financial Conference (online)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August)

·       UK Claimant Count Change (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (August)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade/Current Account (July)

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia will host the 2nd Global Artificial Intelligence Summit in Riyadh.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the current situation in Sudan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Gold Production (July), Mining Production (July)

Wednesday, September 14, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report

·       G20 Labor Ministers meet in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Mexico’s National Independent Union of Workers of the Automotive Industry (SINTTIA) is expected to begin a strike at Volkswagen’s Puebla state plant due to pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US PPIs (August), MBA Mortgage Market Index (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July), Business Confidence (September)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping as Xi travels to Uzbekistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China’s People’s Bank of China 1-year MLF Announcement

·       Japan Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September), Unemployment Rate (August), RBA Bulletin

·       India WPI Fuel and Food Reports (August)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q2)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q2)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyen to give an outline of the European Commission’s ideas on capping energy prices in the annual State of the Union Address.

·       Informal meeting of the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers (through September 16)

·       Russia holds numerous regional and municipal elections across the country.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane speaks at ECB Money Market Contact Group meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       UK Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Syria.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 15, 2022:

Global 

·       G-7 Speakers’ Conference (heads of G-7 Parliaments) meets in Berlin, Germany.

·       The UN Security Council will vote on resolutions linked to the Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Dáesh (UNITED).

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Biden to hold United We Stand Summit to discuss gun violence, hate crimes, and other social threats to democracy.

·       US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will testify before the US Senate Banking Committee. He will give an update on the SEC’s broad agenda.

·       El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua all celebrate Independence Day (public holidays).

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Retail Sales (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Business Inventories (July), Import Prices and Export Prices (August), Initial Jobless Claims (September), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September) Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions ((September), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (September), Philadelphia Fed Employment (September), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September), 

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (July), Housing Starts (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Uzbekistan will host the 2022 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. It is expected that Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi will meet (marking the first foreign trip by Xi in more than three years).  The SCO current members are India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; four countries — Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia — have an observer status with the SCO, and six countries — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey and Sri Lanka — have a dialogue partner status.

·       China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress Li Zhanshu will visit South Korea to meet with President Yoon Suk-yeol and other officials. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Housing Price Index (August), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       South Korea Export Prices (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Sri Lanka GDP (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UK faces a deadline to respond to a European Union legal action over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol.

·       London Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England interest rate decision is delayed until September 22 due to the death of Queen Elizabeth (the first time the BoE has done so since becoming independent 25 years ago)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (July), Labor Cost Index (Q2), Wage Growth 9Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (August), FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique interest rate decision.

Friday, September 16, 2022:

Global 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visits Washington DC and will meet with President Biden to discuss trade and investment issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Current Conditions (September), Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Korea and the US hold Bilateral Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meetings.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia HIA New Home Sales (August)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s 187th Octoberfest begins in Munich.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       UK Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August), New Car Registrations (July)

·       Russian Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Bloomberg’s September South Africa Economic Survey will be released.

Saturday, September 17, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       UK’s Liberal Democrat Party holds its annual conference in Brighton.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the Cantillon lecture at the 45th Annual Dublin Economics Workshop in Wexford, Ireland.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 18, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Chile celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Paris holds a “No-Car Day”.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Geopolitical Week Ahead: September 4 - 11, 2022:

This coming week, Russia – despite its ongoing invasion of Ukraine - hosts the 7th Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. More than 46 countries are scheduled to attend to discuss trade and development in the Far East and Arctic, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to address the Forum. The Forum takes place as the United Nations plans to meet to discuss the dire situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.  The UN sent inspectors there last week to assess damage to the facility due to Russian shelling.

We will also see this week North Korea hold an extraordinary meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly to rubber stamp new rural development laws and unspecified “organizational changes.”  North Korea has reportedly been decimated by COVID, and its economy is in worse shape than it has been in decades.  Also this week, OPEC+ will meet to discuss oil production increases.

On the economic front, as we saw last week, there will be another flood of important economic data globally, with key PMI report from the US, various EU nations, and Asian nations along with other data which will give a greater indication of the size and speed of inflation globally.  In particular this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank on Thursday for an expected sizeable interest rate increase. 

Additionally, the three top Federal Reserve Board officials will be giving speeches this week - Chair Jay Powell, Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Lael Brainard, and Vice Chair for Bank Supervision, Michael Barr.  Barr’s speech, his inaugural since being confirmed to the Fed, will likely indicate how the Fed and other Biden-appointed financial regulators see bank and other financial institution mergers going forward.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 4, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds a vote on the newly drafted Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to arrive in Indonesia to meet with Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and sign a five-year plan of action to enhance bilateral cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (August), S&P Global Services PMI (August), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August), Retail Sales ((July), Business Inventories (Q2)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam IS&P Global PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US celebrates Labor Day (a national holiday, markets are closed)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Colombia  PPI (August), Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to begin four-day visit to India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)

·       India S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August)

·       Australia Current Account (Q2)

·       Thailand Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (August)

·       Philippine Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s governing Conservative Party will announce the winner of its leadership contest who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum to be held in Vladivostok, Russia (through September 8). More than 46 countries are expected to attend to discuss development issues for the Far East and Russia.

·       Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to meet with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell at session of EU-Ukraine Association Council. 

·       UK’s criminal barristers expected to begin an indefinite strike over fee levels for legal aid work.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August)

·       Spain S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)

·       Sweden Services PMI (August)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament is expected to decide the country’s next president who will serve a six-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (August)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan Supreme Court to give its ruling in the challenge to the country’s presidential-election result.

·       Africa Adaptation Summit to be held in Rotterdam, the Netherlands to discuss climate issues in advance of the COP27 meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Uganda PMI (August))

·       Kenya PMI (August)

·       Zambia PMI (August))

·       Ghana PMI (August))

·       Mozambique PMI (August))

Tuesday, September 6, 2022:

Global

·       U.N. Security Council may meet per Russia's request to discuss the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate is scheduled to reconvene after August recess; the US House of Representatives remains out of session until September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (August), ISM non-Manufacturing Employment (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index

·       Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to arrive in Singapore to meet with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and sign bilateral counterterrorism and data privacy agreements.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Japan FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision and Chart Pack, GDP Growth Rate (Q2),

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU informal meeting of Health Ministers (through September 7)

·       EU-Georgia Association Council meeting in Brussels.

·       The UK’s Booker Prize shortlist for the best book is announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The annual meeting of the Bruegel Institution begins.  The keynote speaker is IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

·       Germany Factory Orders (July), S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Swaziland celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Wednesday, September 7, 2022:

Global

·       G-20 Development Ministerial meeting to be held in Belitung, Indonesia.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultation on the security situation in Somalia in the morning and a briefing on the war in Ukraine in the afternoon.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 99th Plenary meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil marks 200 years of independence from Portugal.  President Jair Bolsonaro is calling for supporters to join him at a military parade in Rio de Janeiro to celebrate.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Fed Vice Chair for Monetary Policy  Lael Brainard Speech to speak at the Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference in New York; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michal Barr to speak at the Brookings Institution (his first speech as Vice Chair),  Fed Beige Book ; Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (July), Redbook (September),  MBA Mortgage Refinance Index /Purchase Index/Mortgage Application/30-Year Mortgage Rate (September), Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Ivey PMI (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports and Auto Production (August)

·       Chile Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Envoys from Japan, South Korea, and the United States to discuss the security situation in North Korea in Tokyo, Japan.

·       North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly to meet to discuss rural development law changes as well as possible “organizational changes.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (August)

·       Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July), GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Current Account (July)

·       Australia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July), RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Indonesia FX Reserves (August)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (August), Unemployment Rate (July), Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (August)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (August)

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dutch government will publish a report from advisors on prospects for building two new nuclear power reactors as part of the country’s energy transition.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (July)

·       France FX Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Eurozone GDP Growth (est. Q3), Employment Change (Q2)

·       Switzerland FX Reserves (August)

·       Sweden Construction Output (July), Household Consumption (July), Industrial Production (July)

·       Poland FX Reserves (August), Central Bank to meet on interest rate hike.

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August), FX Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel FX Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserve (August)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (May and June)

·       Mauritius FX reserves (August)

·       Seychelles inflation (August)

Thursday, September 8, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds consultations on the situation in Yemen.

·       The OECD releases its global employment outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's speech at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference (via video); Initial Jobless Claims (Sept 3), Continuing Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Sept 3), Consumer Credit Change (July)

· Chile's core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to visit Japan for bilateral defense talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (August), PPI (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey and Outlook Reports (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)

·       Philippines Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine Defense Contact Group to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. 

·       UK’s Royal Mail workers begin two days of strikes over pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports/Current Accounts (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (August)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August), Consumer Confidence (August), Budget Balance (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account (Q2), SACCI Business Confidence (August), Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation (August)

·       Mauritius inflation (August) 

Friday, September 9, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speech at the Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Wien, Austria; Wholesale Inventories (July)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August), Capacity Utilization (Q2)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August),  Car Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to visit Pakistan amid severe floods.

·       Tajikistan celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July), Industrial Production (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU’s Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to discuss emergency measures to mitigate high energy prices and likely scenarios and preparations for the coming winter.

·       Eurogroup Meeting to discuss various topics including Central Bank currencies and an update on the digital euro project.

·       EU Informal meeting of Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Industrial Production (July)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation (August), Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 10, 2022:

Global

·       Monaco hosts the Les rendez-Vous de Setembre Conference, the largest insurance and re-insurance industry in the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the Moon Festival, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moscow holds municipal elections (through September 11).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 11, 2022:

Global

·       The 21st anniversary of the terror attacks on New York and Washington DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Okinawa gubernatorial elections held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Sweden holds general elections.

·       Spain’s Catalonia region celebrates National Day, coinciding with pro-independence demonstrations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid makes a state visit to Germany and meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank Steinmeier in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Geopolitical Week Ahead: August 28 - September 4

This coming week, the war in Ukraine continues to dominate the geopolitical outlook. EU foreign and defense ministers will meet in Prague on Monday and Tuesday to discuss providing further military and economic aid to Ukraine and whether to put forth a blanket ban Russian tourist visas.  Also, this week, Russia will hold  “Vostok-2022,” a massive joint military exercise in Siberia. China, India, Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan will participate. And this will be the first all three branches of China’s military will participate in the annual exercise. Russia will also shut down Nord Stream 1 for unexpected and unscheduled maintenance, further exacerbating the growing EU energy crisis.

Also this week, a flood of important economic data will hit the global markets. Leading the way will Q2 GDP updates for many leading economies (India, South Korea, Italy, and Canada), giving us a greater sense of the risk of a global recession. In the US, in the wake of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s tough-love speech in Jackson Hole this past Friday, the non-farming payroll figures and factory orders will be a key focus. In Europe, markets are focused on the August and July PPIs of several leading EU economies, particularly Q2 GDP numbers for Germany, Poland, and Italy. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, 28 August 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds its first televised presidential debate between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his opponent, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia retail sales (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August), Industrial Production (August), Inflation (August), Retail Sales (August).

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Bassam al-Saadi’s detention in an Israeli prison is scheduled to end and a court hearing will be held over his fate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 supply (July), private banking lending (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 29 August 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 Urban Mayoral Summit is being held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

·       The United Nations begins Africa Climate Week in Gabon n advance of the COP27 meeting in Egypt in November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains in recess until mid-September (House of Representatives returns September 13th; the Senate returns September 6th); Much of Washington DC is still on vacation.

·       NASA to launch the Artemis I Lunar Exploration Rocket to the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to give a prerecorded speech at the FedNow Early Adopter Workshop in Illinois.

·       Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to approve $1.2 billion of its Extended Fund Facility to help strengthen the country’s financial stability.

·       Japan leading economic index (June), coincident index (June), unemployment rate (July)

·       Australia building permits (July), private house approvals (July)

·       Hong Kong monthly property data (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU defense ministers hold informal meetings (through August 30) to discuss the War in Ukraine and how to better coordinate military support for Ukraine.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will give a speech in Prague, the Czech Republic outlining Germany’s vision for the future of the EU bloc.

·       Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morowiecki to visit Paris to meet with French President Macron to discuss the Ukraine War and energy issues.

·       Norway hosts the Offshore Norther Seas Oil and Gas Conference.

·       The UK Summer Bank Holiday.  Also, today will be the end of an eight-day strike by 1,900 port work workers end a strike at Felixstowe, the UK’s major port.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey balance of trade (July), economic confidence index (August)

·       Iran inflation rate (August)

·       Qatar balance of trade (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, 30 August 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Barrack Obama will speak at the Democratic Redistricting Committee fundraiser in Martha’s Vineyard.

·       The one-year anniversary of the US’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Fed President John Williams will speak at a Wall Street Journal Live (online) event.

·       US Redbook (August), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (June), JOLTs Job Opening (July), CB Consumer Confidence (August), Dallas Fed Services Index (August),

·       Canada Current Account (Q2)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (July), unemployment rate (July)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Thai and Laos leaders to meet to discuss linking the China-Laos railway with Thailand’s Nong Khai province to expand the pan-Asian railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Japan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Construction Output (July)

·       Australia Construction Work Done (Q2), Private Sector Credit (July)

·       Philippines PPIs (July), Retail Sales (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia holds its annual joint military exercise – “Vostok-2022” (through September 5th). The exercise will be held in Russia’s Eastern Military Districts (Siberian region).  China will participate as will India, Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan.  This is the first time all three branches of China’s military (Air Force, Navy, and Army) have participated in a war game with Russia.

·       EU Foreign Ministers to hold informal meetings to discuss the War in Ukraine. Among the key issues they will discuss is a proposal to place a blanket ban in Russian tourist visas.

·       Denmark hosts the Baltic Security Summit in Bornholm.

·       The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in Brussels to further mediate the territorial dispute between the two countries.

·       The EU Parliament Committee looking into the use of Pegasus and equivalent surveillance spyware meets in Brussels.  This meeting comes in the wake of the recently revealed Greek wiretap scandal involving Nikos Androulakis, Member of the European Parliament and President of Greece’s Movement for Change party and Panhellenic Socialist Movement. 

·       Switzerland hosts 10th meeting of State Parties to the UN Convention on Cluster Munitions in Geneva.

·       The UK will see 40,000 BT and Openreach members of the Communications Workers Union go on a 48-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany inflation rate (August), import prices (July)

·       Spain inflation rate (August), retail sales (July)

·       Italy industrial sales (June)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (July), Mortgage Approvals (July), Net Lending to Individuals (July)

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (August), Industrial Sentiment (August), Selling Price Expectations (August), Service Sentiment (August), Consumer

Confidence (August), Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Hungary interest rate decision

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Victory Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya will swear in President-Elect William Ruto.  However, the Kenyan Supreme Court is considering a petition by the opposition party challenging the election results (see below)

·       Kenya’s Supreme Court holds a pre-trial conference on a petition challenging the outcome of the recent presidential elections.  

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·      South Africa M3 money supply (July), Private Sector Credit (July)

Wednesday, 31 August 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 Environmental and Climate Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet to step down before her office publishes a report on human rights abuses in the Xinjiang Province in China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Trinidad and Tobago celebrate Independence Day.

·       US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to join UK Communications Workers who are on strike in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to speak at the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce.

·       The Dallas Federal Reserve will introduce its new president, Lorie Logan, at a virtual event where she will give remarks (5 p.m.)

·       US MBA 30-year mortgage rate (August), ADP Employment Change (August), Chicago PMI (August)

·       Canada GDP Growth (Q2 & June)

·       Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (July)

·       Colombia Unemployment rate (July)

·       Chile industrial production (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to appear in court to face charges of contempt following a weekend speech in which he reportedly threatened police officers and a magistrate.

·       Malaysia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (August), Housing Starts (July), Construction Orders (July), Capital Spending (Q2), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Infrastructure Output (July),  Government Budget Value (July)

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August), S&P Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (August), Home Loans (July), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q2) , Private Capital Expenditures (Q2), Building Capital Expenditures (Q2)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline expected to be shut down for unscheduled maintenance.

·       US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to join UK Communications Workers who are on strike in London.

·       The final Conservative Party hustings event will take place before Tory’s vote Monday on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany unemployment rate (August)

·       France inflation rate (August), GDP growth rate (Q2), Household consumption (July), PPIs (July)
Spain unemployment rate (August), Current Account (June)

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (August), CPI Flash (August)

·       Italy Inflation rate (August), PPIs (July)

·       Russia GDP (July), M2 Money Supply (July), Unemployment Rate (July) Real Wage Growth (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey GDP Growth (Q2)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMIs (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal’s Prime Minister Costa is scheduled to visit Mozambique to attend the 5th Portugal-Mozambique Summit to further strengthen bilateral political and trade ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kenya inflation figures (August)

·       Uganda inflation figures (August)

·       Namibia money supply (July)

Thursday, 1 September 2022:

Global

·       G-20 Digital Ministers meeting to be held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) holds its Health20 Summit in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       France assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador expected to submit legislation to the Mexican Congress to bring the National Guard under military control

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), S&P Manufacturing New Orders (August),  ISM Manufacturing PMI/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment figures (August), Construction Spending (July), Challenger Jobs Cuts (August), Initial Jobless Claims (August), Unit Labor Costs (Q2), Nonfarm Productivity (Q2)

·       Brazil GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada Building Permits (July)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru inflation rate (August)

·       Argentina tax revenue (August)

·       Colombia current account balance (Q2)

·       Chile economic activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China will allow Shanghai to reopen all schools after months of closures due to COVID.

·       Vietnam to celebrate National Day.  This will be a four-day national holiday.

·       Uzbekistan celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (August)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (August), Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Pakistan inflation rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU hosts the 6th Global Conference on Criminal Finances and Cryptocurrencies at the Hague, Belgium.

·       European Parliament holds a hearing on EU-Indo-Pacific trade relations.

·       Finland begins limiting Russian tourist visas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August), Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Italy GDP Growth (Q2), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Nigeria’s PMIs (August)

Friday, 2 September  2022:

Global

·       G-20 Energy Transitions Ministerial Meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (August), Unemployment Rate (August) Average Hourly Earnings (August), Factory Orders (August), Participation Rate (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August), Industrial Production (July)

·       Mexico FX reserves (July)

·       Argentina Tax Revenues (August)

·       Colombia exports (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India will formally launch its first domestically-produced aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August), FX reserves (July)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines inflation rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Informal Meeting of Ministers Responsible for Cohesion Policy to be held in Prague, Czech Republic.

·       European Parliament President Roberta Metsola visits Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany exports/imports/balance of trade (July), S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       France Budget Balance (July), Balance of Trade (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)

·       Eurozone PPIs (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, 3 September 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump to campaign in Pennsylvania for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France S&P Global Services  PMI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 4 September 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 T20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds a referendum on its newly crafted Constitution.  Current polls suggest it will be rejected by voters.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. visits Indonesia (through September 6) to discuss regional security issues including joint counterterrorism cooperation.  Marcos goes on to visit Singapore on September 6-7.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany hosts the International Metropolis Conference in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: August 14-21, 2022

The week ahead should be relatively quiet aside from the ongoing bloody grind of Russia’s war on Ukraine.  China has largely finished its military exercises around Taiwan, the US Congress has gone on a month-long holiday, and most of Europe is also on holiday, albeit under a scorching sun.  The real action this week will be on the economic front as markets await major economic reports globally.  Both the US and China report retail sales and industrial production data.  Japan reports inflation figures.  And we will see the Federal Reserve Board release minutes from the last meeting, giving us a little better insight into their thinking about future rate rises.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, 14 August 2022:

Global

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Bachelet visits Bangladesh to discuss human rights and the physical condition of more than 900,000 Rohingya Muslims who have fled genocide in Myanmar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China and Thailand begin joint Air Force exercise “Falcon Strike 2022”

Pakistan celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

 (July), retail sales (July), unemployment rate (July)

Japan GDP (Q2), private consumption (Q2), capital expenditure (Q2)

Thailand GDP (Q2)

Indonesia balance of trade/exports/imports (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

Nothing to report. 

Monday, 15 August 2022:

Global

The UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts is scheduled to release its final report on sanctions on Mali. The sanctions – brought by the UN, US, the EU, and a number of African nations -  were put in place following a coup in January by the ruling junta to avoid elections.  The junta has agreed to elections in 2024 that will be monitored by the UN and Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US and Turkish officials meet in Washington to discuss the sale of modernization kits for F-16 fighter jets for Turkey.

The one-year anniversary of the Taliban entering Kabul and the former Afghan government collapsing.

Peru’s government to define the 2022-2023 legislative agenda.

The US Congress is in recess until September.

President Biden is on holiday with his family.

LA Tech Week begins in Los Angeles, California and will feature remarks by many of the leading US tech CEOs.

Economic Reports/Events –

US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

Canada new motor vehicle sales (June), manufacturing sales (June), wholesale sales (June)

Brazil inflation rate (July), Central Bank Focus Market readout, IBC-BR economic activity (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumino Kishada is expected to present to the Japanese Diet a stimulus package to address the country’s rising food and energy costs.

2022 Business Advantage Papua New Guinea Investment Conference held in Brisbane, Australia.

APEC holds 3rd Senior Officials Meeting (SOM#) and related meetings.

India celebrates its 75th Independence Day ending British rule.

Japan marks the 77th anniversary of its surrender to Allied Forces, ending World War II in the Pacific.

South Korea celebrates Liberation Day and large-scale demonstrations are expected in Seoul.

Economic Reports/Events –

China Peoples Bank of China sets MLF rate, retail sales (July)  house price index (July)

Japan industrialized production (June), capacity utilization (June)

Australia central bank minutes

Philippines overseas remittances (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Leaders of Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden will hold a Nordic Council meeting in Oslo, Sweden. 

The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic expected to begin trials of British, Swedish, and Croatian citizens captured fighting on behalf of Ukraine.

UK barristers are likely to strike over legal aid funding.

UK union members at Liverpool’s container ports expected to strike over pay and work conditions.

Assumption Day (a Roman Catholic Feast Day) and a public holiday in France, Italy, and Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany wholesale prices (July)

Russia expected to convert depositary receipts of Russian companies on foreign exchanges into shares on the Russian Stock Exchange.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Iran faces a deadline to respond to an EU proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear accords.

Economic Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia inflation rate (July)

Turkey budget balance (July), auto production (July)

Israel CPIs (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nigeria inflation report (July)

Botswana inflation report (July)

Tuesday, 16 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Wyoming and Alaska hold primary elections (Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) faces a tough primary challenge).  And Alaska holds a special election to fill the seat left open by the death of Representative Don Young (R-AK)

Brazil’s political candidates are allowed starting today to run television and internet campaign ads.

Costa Rica and Ecuador to begin negotiations on a free trade deal.

Caribbean leaders will gather in the Bahamas to discuss the regions approach to the COP27 Climate Talks in Egypt being held in November.

Elvis Presley died 45 years ago this day.

Economic Reports/Events –

US housing starts (July), building permits (July), industrial production (July), manufacturing production (July), Redbook (August), capacity utilization (July)

Canada housing starts (July), inflation rate (July), CPIs (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June), Reuters Tankan Index (July), machinery orders (June)

India WPI food/fuel/manufacturing/inflation (July), balance of trade/imports/exports (July)

Australia wage prices (Q2), Westpac Leading Index (July), wage price index (Q2)

Indonesia property price index (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Nordic Council (see above/yesterday) will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Oslo, Sweden.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

UK unemployment rate (June), claimant count change (July), average earnings (June), labour productivity (Q2)

Czech Republic PPIs (July)

Poland inflation figures (July)

Romania’s central bank minutes (July0

Eurozone balance of trade (June), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, 17 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks in New Hampshire at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics “Politics & Eggs” event – a prelude to a likely presidential run.

Economic Reports/Events –

US Federal Reserve Board minutes,  30-year mortgage rate (August), retail sales (July), business inventories (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Indonesia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan balance of trade/exports/imports (July), machinery orders (July)

Australia unemployment rate (July), participation rate (July)

Singapore export (July), NODX (July)

Hong Kong unemployment rate (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti to discuss rising tensions with Serbia.  He then meets with Serbian President Alexandr Vucic tomorrow (Thursday).

Economic Reports/Events –

UK inflation rate (July), retail price index (July), PPIs (July)

Eurozone employment change, GDP growth rate (Q2)

Russia PPIs (July)

Hungary GDP (Q2)

Poland GDP (Q2)

Romania GDP (Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

42nd Southern African Development Community Summit of the Heads of State and Government in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Guinea’s opposition political coalition to launch country-wide protests against the ruling military junta.

Kenyan deadline to announce recent presidential election results.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa retail sales (June)

Zambia central bank interest rate decision

Namibia central bank interest rate decision

Ghana PPIs (July)

Thursday, 18 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

NASA’s Artimis 1 Moon Mission rocket will be rolled into place for lift-off at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/Fed CAPEX Index (August), initial jobless claims (August), existing home sales (July), CB Leading index (July), 30-year TIPS Auction

Canada PPIs (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Indonesia current account (Q2), motorbike sales (July)

Philippines central bank meeting

Sri Lanka central bank meeting

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Spain balance of trade (June)

Eurozone CPIs (July), inflation rate (July), construction output (June)

Norway central bank interest rate decision.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey central bank interest rate decision, FX reserves (August)

 Egypt merchandise trade balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa building permits (June)

Friday, 19 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Trade Representative’s deadline to submit a request to continue August 23, 2018 China section 301 tariff action.

The US Energy Association will hold a briefing on nuclear power and how they see the approximately $30 billion in funding being provided by the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act will help rebuild the US’ nuclear power industry.

Brazil’s Petrobas shareholders’ meeting to evaluate candidates for the board of directors.

Economic Reports/Events –

Canada retail sales (June)

Mexico retail sales (June)

Argentina's leading indicator (July)

Argentina and the Inter-American Development Bank to sign an agreement on an $80 million loan to small- to medium-sized enterprises.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan inflation rate (July)

Indonesia loan growth (July)

India FX reserves (August)

Malaysia exports/imports/balance of trade (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Montenegro’s Parliament is expected to hold a no-confidence vote against the minority government after it signed a an agreement with the Serbia Orthodox Church – a measure strongly opposed by human rights groups and pro-western Montenegran political parties.

The UK is bracing for 10,000 rail and bus drivers to go on strike, mostly in the London area.

Economic Reports/Events –

UK retail sales (July), public sector net borrowing (July)

Eurozone current account (June)

Poland gross wages (July), industrial production (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Bloomberg monthly economic survey

Nigeria PSCE (July), M2 money supply (July)

Saturday, 20 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Argentina leading indicator (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Hungary celebrates State Foundation Day, a public holiday.

The UK braces for yet more strikes from rail and transportation workers over pay and work conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel forward average CPI forecasts (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Sunday, 21 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Hawaii celebrates Statehood Day, making it the 50th state of the union in 1959.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

China loan prime rate (1Y & 5Y)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins a state visit to Canada.

The UK will see a one-day strke by container port workers at Felixstowe.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Moscow Further Turns the Energy Screws on Eastern Europe

Russia has halted oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline, which takes Russian oil across Ukraine to refineries in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. They cut the flow five days ago.  

This is a significant move by Moscow, putting Central Europe - the rest of the EU - in an increasingly tense energy security scenario. Meteorologists are still finalizing most long-range weather assessments for 2022-2023, but early indications suggest the EU will see colder than average conditions and above-average snowfall this winter.

Notably, Hungary is a victim of the cut-off. Hungary’s Prime Minister, Victor Orbán, has long been friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin likely sees Hungary as a weak point to be exploited in the EU’s opposition to the war and is applying greater pressure on the country to exacerbate internal EU tensions over support for the war.  

In the coming three months, markets should anticipate an escalation of Russian-influenced risk on both the energy security and food security front - particularly on the food front as Moscow is seeking to cause crises across the Middle East and Africa. We will be reporting more on this in the coming weeks.

New York Fed Consumer Survey Says Inflation Expectations Falling

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations today. Some good news for consumers: Medium one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined sharply in July. They fell from 6.8 percent to 3.6 percent in June to 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent in July. Here is a link to the full survey.

One year inflation expectations (Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Survey/August 8, 2022)

Three year inflation expectations (Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Survey/August 8, 2022)

Are We Getting to An Attention Deficit Inflection Point with the Ukraine War?

A worrisome data point concerning the world’s ability to stay focused on Russia’s war on Ukraine: Social media engagement across the board - since May 29th - is essentially at its lowest since before the invasion in late February.

Obviously, no one wants to focus on war. As US General William Tecumseh Sherman famously and correctly said, war is hell. He meant that in the word's full, horrific, nightmarish sense. This, of course, is only one indicator. But the risk of the people living freely in democracies around the world becoming fatigued by the war is real - and it is something Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting on.

What Does the New ABC/Ipsos Poll Tell Us About the November Elections?

A newly released ABC/Ipsos poll caught our attention this weekend. While there has been a cascade of brutally bad polls for President Biden and Democrats in general, this poll may suggest there is a slight reconsideration among voters.

The poll clearly shows Republicans are more trusted to handle key issues like the economy, inflation, and crime. Moreover, the pattern shows that the same voters polled are enthusiastic about voting in the midterms this November - a continued negative for Democrats.

But the poll also showed that 1/3 of those polled - particularly independents - do not trust either party to do a particularly good job. Our read of this is Democrats have room to claw back what were thought to be lost voters, and Republicans still have a lot of work to do to win by the margins they and many in their base think they will be in November.

The poll shows - as so many other polls have shown - that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating holds steady across many issues, but he’s touching historic lows. The one bright spot for President Biden is his handling of coronavirus (56%). The negative? 29% percent approve of his handling of inflation, 37% approve of his handling of the overall economy, and 43% approve of his handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those figures will be incredibly hard to turn around between now and November. And if gas prices and food prices begin to spike again, they will only get worse.

The upshot is we now expect a particularly intense three-month sprint to November. There is little time for Congress to do much legislatively between now and then to alleviate inflation/broader economic concerns, and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (passed by the Senate yesterday and expected to be passed by the House this Friday) will have virtually no impact on actual inflationary pressures. Moreover, voters broadly will not see or feel any significant benefits before the mid-terms. For Democrats, the legislative victory may be something of a tonic to energize Democratic voters who have been dismayed by the lack of success on many hoped-for agenda items - particularly among the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Finally, we would argue polling going forward begins to take a sharper focus and, we believe, will be more telling and indicative than they have been did in recent months. Buckle up, everyone. As we said, it is going to be a very intense three months ahead.

You can access the ABC/Ipsos press release HERE and the toplines/details of the poll HERE.

The Global Week Ahead: August 7 - 14, 2022

The Week Ahead: Watching for more Chinese reactions to Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit; Colombia swears in a new president; Iran launches satellites with help of Russia; the US braces for tough economic numbers; President Biden signs the CHIPS Act into law

After an extraordinary few months of intense geopolitical and economic events, a relatively quiet August in the northern hemisphere has begun to settle in.  Relations between the US and China continue to be tense following US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) visit to Taiwan.

We will be watching  closely for any new measures implemented by Beijing against the US, Taiwan, and other nations beyond those already announced in retaliation of the visit.  Those actions include China’s largest military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait in almost 30 years, canceling scheduled bilateral meetings with US political and military officials and Japanese officials, and trade sanctions on several Taiwanese goods (which are at more than 2,000 specific Taiwanese products). 

 We are also watching US Secretary of State Blinken's Africa trip, aimed at countering growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region.  Here is everything we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, 7 August 2022:

Global

Islamic holiday of Ashura begins.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Colombia’s President-elect Gustavo Petro sworn into office for a four-year term.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken begins tour of Sub-Saharan Africa with a visit to Johannesburg, South Africa.  From there he travels to Rwanda and then the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Argentina’s Union of Workers of the Popular Economy expected to hold demonstrations demanding universal basic income.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Bangladesh (August 7th) and Mongolia (August 8th) to discuss infrastructure cooperation via China’s proposed Global Security Initiative (which is seen as a counter the US-led Quad).

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 8 August 2022:

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peace and Security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will meet with senior officials in Australia and then New Zealand on August 9th to discuss how to further strengthen security and economic in the region.

The US is expected to receive 332,000 pounds of infant formula as part of the Biden Administration’s “Operation Fly Formula.”

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will testify in front of a grand jury investigating attempts by former President Trump to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.

Economic Reports/Events –

Brazil’s central bank market readout

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan trade balance (June), bank lending (July), Economy Watchers Survey

Taiwan exports/imports/trade balance (July

New Zealand RBNZ Survey of Expectations (Q3)

Indonesia consumer confidence (July)

Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey (Current and Outlook July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet with gubernatorial candidates from several Russian regions in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

The Moscow Stock Exchange was scheduled (but is now delaying) to give permission for trading by clients from “friendly” jurisdictions to trade on its equity and derivatives markets.

UK retail sales monitor (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Turkey holds its 13th annual ambassadors meeting in Ankara.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Tanzania inflation report (July)

Tuesday, 9 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Numerous leading social organizations in Guatemala to hold two days of protests against President Alejandro Giammattei’s economic policies.

President Joe Biden to sign the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 into law.

Connecticut, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will hold primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey (July), unit labor costs (Q2), Redbook (August), IDB/TIPP Economic Optimism ((August), consumer inflation expectations (July)

Argentina industrial production (June)

Brazil Coporm Meeting minutes, inflation rate (July)

Mexico inflation rate (July), core inflation figures (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nepal’s Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka travels to Beijing, China for consultation meetings.

Singapore celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan machine tool orders (July) M2, M3

Philippines GDP (Q2), exports/imports/trade balance (June), industrial production (June)

Malaysia industrial production (June), manufacturing sales (June)

Australia CBA household spending (July), WBC/MI consumer sentiment (August), NAB Business Survey (July)

Indonesia retail sales (June)

South Korea unemployment rate (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Slovenia’s President Borut Pahor visits Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss security challenges int the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ferry workers on the Isle of Wright will go on a day-long strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

The Islamic Solidarity Games begin in Konya, Turkey.

The Iranian Space Agency, working with Russia’s Roscosmos, is scheduled to launch weather data-focused satellite from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The satellites, however, are also expected to assist Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Kenya holds general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, 10 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

US CPIs (July), inflation rate (July), real average hourly earnings (July), wholesale inventories (June)

Brazil retail sales (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Australia’s New South Wales rail workers begin work stoppages to protest against wages and working conditions.

Thailand expected to see university students protest in Bangkok for “a return to democracy in society.”

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is anticipated to announce a reshuffling of his Cabinet.

Economic Reports/Events –

China CPIs, PPIs (July), M2

Japan PPIs (July)

South Korea unemployment rate (July)

Bank of Thailand meets on interest rates

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Employees of Ireland’s Armagh City, Banbridge, and Craigavon Borough Council will go on strike for a day (affecting garbage collection, planning, and leisure services)

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany inflation figures (July)

Italy inflation rate figures (July)

UK RICS house price balance (July)

Russia inflation rate (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia industrial production (June)

Turkey unemployment rate (June), participation rate (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

South Africa’s opposition parties to meet. They are expected to announced the establishment of a committee to investigate alleged wrongdoings by President Cyril Ramaphosa regarding the Phala Phala Farm scandal.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa business confidence

Ghana inflation report

Rwanda inflation report

Thursday, 11 August 2022:

Global

The International Energy Agency and OPEC are scheduled to publish their monthly oil market reports.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Brazil braces for a series of pro-democracy/anti-President Jair Bolsonaro demonstrations across the country.

The US Federal Election Commission will vote on whether Google’s proposed program to help prevent campaign emails from being directed to spam folders should be approved or if they violate campaign finance laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

US PPIs (July), initial jobless claims

Brazil business confidence (August)

Mexico central bank interest rate decision

Argentina inflation rate (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Japan celebrates Mountain Day (a public holiday).

Economic Reports/Events –

The Indonesia Shopping Festival 2022 begins and will last through August 21st aimed at boosting nationwide consumption.

South Korea import and export prices (July)

Australia MI consumer inflation expectations (August)

New Zealand housing report (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Russian Parliament (Duma) is going to hold a previously unplanned council meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany current account balance (June)

UK RICS house price balance (July), Heathrow Airport Monthly traffic figures

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Tunisia’s General Labour Union to hold coordinated strikes in several food-related industries over wages and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey current account (June), FX reserves (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Rwanda interest rate decision

South Africa mining and manufacturing production reports (June)

Namibia inflation report (July)

Friday, 12 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The US House of Representatives will return from recess to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act (Build Back Better-lite).

Economic Reports/Events –

US University of Michigan survey (August), import and export price index (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

China vehicle sales (July), foreign direct investment (July), M2 money supply (July)

India CPI (Q2), industrial production (June), inflation rate (July), industrial production (June), passenger vehicles sales (July)

Malaysia GDP (Q2), current account balance (Q2)

New Zealand business manufacturing PMI (July), food price index (July)

Indonesia car sales (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Scotland’s Glasgow subway workers expected to strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

France unemployment rate (Q2), inflation rate (July)

Spain inflation rate (July)

UK GDP (June & Q2), construction output (June), industrial and manufacturing production (June), index of services, trade balance (July)

Italy trade balance (June)

Eurozone industrial production (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey industrial production (June), retail sales (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Uganda interest rate decision

Saturday, 13 August 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Hawaii holds primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Northern Ireland marks the anniversary of the Siege of Derry, imposed by King James II in 1689, with a parade in Londonderry.

UK train drivers from nine rail companies expected to strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 14 August 2022:

Global

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Bachelet visits Bangladesh to discuss human rights and the physical condition of more than 900,000 Rohingya Muslims who have fled genocide in Myanmar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events -

Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Pakistan celebrates its 75th  Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

China house index (July), industrial production (July), retail sales (July), unemployed rate (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

It’s Always Better in Napa…

Last week, I was proud and delighted to sit on a Catholic University Busch School of Business panel discussion in Napa, California. Held in conjunction with the Napa Institute annual conference, our panel examined the “how and why” a non-academic (like me) would want to transition from the professional world to the world of teaching. I’ve had the honor to teach two courses at CUA for the last two semesters: geopolitical Risk, Leadership, and strategy, and a class on Business Intelligence. 

Our extraordinarily talented Dean, Andrew Abela (left), moderated. What made this particularly fun was to sit with Andreas Widmer (a former Vatican Swiss Guard for St. John Paul II who went on to be a highly successful entrepreneur),  Harvey Seegers (who was CEO of GE’s Electronic Commerce Division and then went on to become President of homedepot.com), me, and Mark Webber (a legend of the software industry, having served in senior roles at NetApp, Sun Microsystems, and Hewlett-Packard).

The conversation revolved around Arthur Brooks latest book, From Strength to Strength - a marvelous guide to understanding how happiness and success in later life are found by accepting your gifts and talents and sharing them with others, especially the next generation. 

Listening to my colleagues and true friends (and true mentors as I build Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC), I was inspired by the courage, the vision, the hard, hard work each undertook to achieve extraordinary success only to turn around and share with students. The joy and satisfaction these guys have is beyond infectious. I am a blessed man to know them.

Left to right: Dean Andrew Abela, Professor Andreas Widmer, Professor Harvey Seegers, me, and Professor Mark Webber.