The Global Week Ahead

Jan 19

US-EU Tensions Spike Over Trump’s Greenland Takeover Threat, The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Vietnam Holds Party Congress, and the Bank of Japan Meets on Interest Rates

January 18 - 26, 2026

The coming week is going to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events, speeches, and meetings as President Trump ratchets up his threats over Greenland, a high-level Ukrainian delegation goes to Washington for talks, and the World Economic Forum gets underway in Davos, Switzerland.

Markets will continue to struggle to understand what exactly is going on with President Trump’s growing demands and threats regarding control of Greenland. The President sent a letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, citing the Norwegian Nobel Committee's not awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize as a reason for his increasing pressure campaign for Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States.

This came after Trump threatened to place 10 percent tariffs on eight countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland) that do not support Trump’s demands on Greenland. This has resulted in an emergency meeting of EU leaders to discuss how to respond, including a discussion of placing €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs on the US.

The dispute now appears headed to Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum (WEF) is being held this week. President Trump, leading a group of more than 30 senior Administration officials, will speak at the Forum on Wednesday and is expected to further elaborate on the issue and discuss his domestic economic agenda to address ‘affordability.’

We expect Trump to meet with a number of European leaders in a bid to strike a deal on Greenland and potentially de-escalate the growing US-EU political crisis.

Also taking place will be sideline meetings between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, as well as President Trump, on important aspects of a potential peace plan, and on the development of a detailed rebuilding/recovery plan for Ukraine. There were reports Monday that the Trump Administration had engaged BlackRock to help engineer an $800 billion “prosperity plan” for Ukraine. We note that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is one of the co-chairs of the World Economic Forum this year.

We are also aware that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to host a dinner with corporate leaders and foreign finance ministers while in Davos to discuss ways to further investment both in Greenland and Venezuela.

Looking to Asia this coming week, Vietnam will be holding its 14th National Party Congress to elect the country's leadership and formalize major policy decisions for the 2026-2030 term. Markets will be watching closely, as those policy decisions are likely to lead to significant market reforms and growth projections that the government aims to achieve at 10 percent annually.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screen this week, aside from what is happening at the WEF, the big news will be what new inflation data is saying about the US (ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting the following week), the UK, Japan (where the Bank of Japan is meeting this week), and Canada.

In the US, PCE figures for October and November – delayed by the recent US federal government shutdown – will finally be released along with Q3 GDP on Thursday. The University of Michigan consumer survey is out on Friday. And in Canada, the CPI is out Tuesday along with the Bank of Canada Quarterly Survey.

In Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone are releasing January PMIs on Friday, while the UK releases employment figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and retail sales and PMIs on Friday.

Moving over to Asis, the Bank of Japan meets this week with its interest rate decision announced on Friday. This comes after the December CPI is released on Thursday. Markets are also taking in China’s Q4 GDP (which was announced at 5% on Monday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Qatar to meet with leaders to discuss bilateral investments.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal holds its presidential election. The president is elected for a five-year term with a two-term limit, has the discretionary power to dissolve parliament, and presides over the consultative Council of State.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits South Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi meet in Tehran.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 19, 2026

Global

· The annual World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 23rd. You can view the entire agenda HERE.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

· The IMF holds a World Economic Outlook update press briefing in Brussels.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Martin Luther King Day, a national holiday. Financial markets and banks are closed as is the federal government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will hold a media conference to give her views on the dissolution of the lower house and the holding of a snap election.

· Vietnam's ruling Communist Party will kick off a congress where it will appoint the country's paramount leader -- the general secretary -- and other officials for five years.

· The 40th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence begins in Singapore and runs through January 27th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (December)

· Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

· China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Union leaders will hold an emergency meeting in the coming days to discuss President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat as they explore possible retaliatory measures. The leaders plan to meet in person near the end of this week, according to an EU official.

· Danish defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen and Greenland’s foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt are due to meet Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss Arctic security and US plans for Greenland.

· Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Berlin, Germany.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

· The Eurogroup will be meeting in Brussels. The meeting of EU finance ministers will discuss policy priorities for 2026, hear a debrief of the recent G7 meeting, and discuss candidates for the post of ECB Vice President (breaking news: They have choses Croatian Central Bank Governor Bors Vujčić.)

· The European Parliament will convene in plenary session through January 22nd in Strasbourg, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation and participates in a Q&A at the "Finance Focus” webinar organized by Bruegel.

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

· Euro Area CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

· Belarus GDP (December)

· Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

· Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Global

· World Economic Forum Highlight: European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel, and Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron speak on a panel at the World Economic Forum.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court scheduled Tuesday as its next opinion day amid a worldwide wait for a ruling on President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs. As is its practice, the court didn’t say which decisions are ready for release, only that rulings are possible when the justices take the bench at 10:00 a.m. Washington time.

· Today is the deadline set by President Donald Trump for banks to cap US credit card interest rates at 10% for a year.

· Today is the one-year anniversary of President Trump being sworn into office.

· The US Senate is out of session this week, but the House of Representatives is in session.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/16)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (December)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

· Earnings: Intel, US Bancorp, Netflix, Fifth Third Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, closed for nearly 15 years in the aftermath of the massive Tohoku earthquake, reopens.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/20)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Taiwan Export Orders (December)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

· India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will be discussing the program of the Cyprus presidency, the European semester 2026, and EU economic governance.

· French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to unveil how his government intends to pass its 2026 budget proposal after suspending parliamentary negotiations.

· IN the UK, today is the deadline for the planning application decision on Beijing’s proposal to create a Chinese embassy on the site of the old Royal Mint in London. Rejection could torpedo British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s planned trip to China, scheduled to take place at the end of this month.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and Financial Policy Committee members Liz Oakes and Jonathan Hall appear at a Treasury Select Committee hearing on the Financial Stability Report.

· Germany PPI (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

· Euro Area Current Account (November)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ Construction Output (November)

· Greece Current Account (November)

· Italy Current Account (November)

· Spain Balance of Trade (November)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

· Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Global

· World Economic Forum Highlight: President Trump is scheduled to address the Forum.

· World Economic Forum Highlight: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council members Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Joachim Nagel speak on panels.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Haiti.

· The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom President Trump has attempted to fire on mortgage-related allegations.

· The US begins an indefinite pause on processing visa applications for 75 countries.

· Chile’s President-elect Jose Antonio Kast presents his cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Retail Sales (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/16)/ Redbook (January/17)/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ Construction Spending (September & October)

· Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

· Argentina Economic Activity (November)

· Earnings: Charles Schwab, Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, United Airlines

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's Nara District Court will deliver its verdict on Tetsuya Yamagami, who has been charged with the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Prosecutors are seeking a life sentence in one of Japan's most closely watched criminal trials in recent years.

· South Korea's former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo's sentencing on charges related to martial law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (January)/ Lending Facility Rate (January)/ Loan Growth (December)

· India M3 Money Supply (January/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Military Chiefs of Defence meeting begins in Brussels, concluding on Thursday with a discussion on Ukraine and a press conference.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 23rd in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a Stakeholder Dialogue titled 'Decade Déjà Vu: Are the 2020s the New 1920s?' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Later in the day, she participates in aStakeholder Dialogue titled 'Second Act for EU Single Market'.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Input (December)/ PPI Output (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Italy Construction Output (November)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)

· Russia Current Account Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia's largest labor union, the Tunisian General Labour Union, will hold a nationwide general strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Central African Republic’s Constitutional Court announces the final results of the presidential election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· TikTok’s US joint venture is expected to be formed. The new entity will control data protection, content moderation and algorithm security in the country.

· Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa visits Belgium to seek investment agreements with European Union partners.

· Jack Smith, the former special counsel who led two failed prosecutions of President Donald Trump, to testify to the House Judiciary Committee.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)

· USA GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/17)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/10)/ Corporate Profits Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ PCE Price Index (October & November)/ Personal Income (October & November)/ Personal Spending (October & November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/16)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/21)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)

· Argentina Retail Sales (November)/ Leading Indicator (December)

· Earnings: Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa, Capital One, CSX, Freeport-McMoRan, GE Aerospace, Huntington Bancshares, Intel, McCormick & Co, Procter & Gamble

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Visitor Arrivals (November)

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/17)

· Australia Employment Change (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting summary will be released.

· Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/16)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

· Poland Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

· Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

· Ireland Bundesbank Monthly Report

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (November)

· Ghana PPI (December)

Friday, January 23, 2026

Global

· World Economic Forum Highlight: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is part of a dialogue on “The Global Economic Outlook” at Davos, along with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI(January)

· Chile PPI (December)

· Mexico Economic Activity (November)

· Canada Retail Sales (November)/ Retail Sales Prel (December)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (December)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/23)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

· Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is First Philippine Republic Day, a national holiday.

· Today is the last day of panda viewing in Japan before China return.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan finishes two days of meetings on interest rates.

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

· India HSBC Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/09)/ Deposit Growth (January/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/16)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Council President Antonio Luis Santos da Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, travel to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Resolution Foundation entitled “The Forks in the Curve” in London.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a Stakeholder Dialogue 'The Global Economic Outlook' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)/ BoE Greene Speech

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)

· Hungary Gross Wage (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)/ HCOB Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash (January)

The Global Week Ahead

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