The Global Week Ahead
May 6 - 12, 2024
This week is going to be relatively quiet. Monday and Wednesday are holidays in Europe, which means a very quiet week in the EU, while holidays in Japan and South Korea will also help things stay quiet in Asia.
However, we are watching one big geopolitical event this week, which will take place in the EU: Chinese President Xi Jinping's visits to Europe. Xi's trip begins with meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Ursula von der Leyden in Paris to discuss the multiple trade spats between the EU and China. From there, Xi heads to Hungary for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then to Serbia. While all this is happening, Russia celebrates Victory Day this week, marking the end of World War II, and President Vladimir Putin will celebrate being reinaugurated as President of Russia.
Also, this week, we will be watching for renewed efforts to bring a cease-fire to Gaza as Israel prepares to launch a military offensive against the city of Rafah. We do not hope a deal will get done, but the discussions will likely intensify, and we can always hope.
Turning our attention to the US, the US Congress is in session this week. While the budget is finished and aid to Ukraine and Israel has been approved, most of the "major" issues left for Congress to tackle are secondary. This week's key focus for Congress is reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.
On the global economic radar this week, there are several key indicators and events to watch. Markets will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday, the UK GDP report, and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US. In Asia, China will be reporting the latest trade balance and Caixin Services PMI, while Japan will also be releasing trade data. Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesdayto decide rates.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:
Monday, May 6, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in conversation before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· USA Fed Williams Speech/ Loan Officer Survey
· Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Minutes
· Canada Average Hourly Wages (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a European tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary. He will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)
· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)
· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1
· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)
· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (April)
· Thailand Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in trilateral meetings in Paris with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China
Economic Reports/Events –
· The UK marks the Early May Bank Holiday, a national holiday.
· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (March)
· Slovakia Retail Sales (March)
· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)
· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)
· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech
· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ PPI (March)
· Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)
· Jordan PPI (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chad holds the first phase of presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (April)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (April)
· Ghana S&P Global PMI (April)
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated conversation on the economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.
· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production (April)
· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· USA Redbook (May/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/03)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)
· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (April)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)
· Colombia Exports (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Australia Retail Sales Final (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference
· Thailand Inflation Rate (April)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/07)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will be re-inaugurated as President of Russia.
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and other current business.
· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss the Equal Treatment Directive and the state of play of the Violence Against Women Survey.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hall gives a speech at the University of Exeter entitled “Monsters in the deep… Artificial Intelligence.”
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Halifax House Price Index (April)/ New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (April)/ BoE Hall Speech
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)
· Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Hungary Retail Sales (March)
· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)
· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)
· Serbia PPI (April)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on 1559 report (Lebanon).
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Washington Conference on the Americas takes place in the U.S. capital with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield will speak.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.
· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak before students and faculty and participates in a fireside discussion before the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management's Challenges and Opportunities class.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/03)
· Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Car Production (April)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Chile Inflation Rate (April)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)
· Argentina Industrial Production (March)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (April)
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)
· Peru Balance of Trade (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest.
· North Macedonia holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
· Germany Industrial Production (March)
· Romania Retail Sales (March)
· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (April)
· Span Industrial Production (March)
· Italy Retail Sales (March)
· Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (April)
· Ireland Industrial Production (March)
· Russia Monetary Policy Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Global
· The G7 Justice Ministers meet in Venice, Italy.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor will go on strike in protest over President Javier Miliei’s economic reform efforts.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/04)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/03)
· Canada BoC Financial System Review
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (March)
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/04)/ Coincident Index Prel (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Australia Building Permits Final (March)/ Private House Approvals Final (March)
· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Malaysia Retail Sales (March)/ Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Ascension Day, a public holiday in the EU. The ECB and most major banking systems are closed.
· Russia will hold a large military parade in Moscow, marking the end of World War II.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks and participates in Q&A at Panel Cívico organized by Asociación Panel Cívico in Madrid, Spain.
· ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a seminar “The tokenization of financial instruments – prospects for the Italian market” organized by CONSOB in Rome, Italy
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at V Edition of the Expansión International Forum in Madrid, Spain. She later participates on a panel entitled “Finance and Banks.”
Time: 9:55
· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Pill Speech
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)
· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)
· Ireland Inflation Rate (April)
· Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)
· Israel Consumer Confidence (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production (March)
· Egypt Inflation Rate (April)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)
Friday, May 10, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.
· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference.
· Brazil Inflation Rate (April)
· Mexico Industrial Production (March)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey
· USA Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Prel (May)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)
· Japan Household Spending (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)
· Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)
· China Vehicle Sales (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote presentation on the digital euro by at CXVI Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) in Madrid, Spain.
· ECB Board Frank Elderson Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable at ASVIS/ECCO Symposium "Europe's Future: Investing in the Climate Transition for All" in Rome, Italy.
· Romania Balance of Trade (March)
· Great Britain GDP (March)/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Prel Q1/ BoE Pill Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)
· Hungary Inflation Rate (April)
· Slovakia Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)
· Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)
· Italy Industrial Production (March)/ Industrial Sales (February)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (March)
· Switzerland Current Account Prel Q1
· Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)
· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Vehicle Sales (April)
· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
· Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)
· Belarus Inflation Rate (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iran holds parliamentary elections (phase 2).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana Inflation Rate (April)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)
Saturday, May 11, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Lithuania holds Presidential elections.
· The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held. The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.