The Global Week Ahead
April 28 - May 5, 2024
It is hard to believe May arrives this week. With it comes May Day, celebrated in many countries around the world. This means many financial markets and governments will be closed on Wednesday. But that does not mean this week will be quiet. We are tracking several important events.
First, next Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to make a rare visit to Europe for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić. But Xi’s visit to Serbia will also come around the 25th anniversary of when the U.S. bombed the Chinese Embassy during a series of NATO strikes against the Serbian government. Three Chinese journalists were killed, and the White House called the incident a regrettable mistake.
Also this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads back to the Middle East for talks with Saudi and Israeli leaders in an attempt to jump-start negotiations to release Israeli hostages held by Hamas and perhaps find an avenue to reach a cease-fire.
Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching the Federal Reserve’s FMOC meetings this week for any signal of possible interest rate cuts (which seems increasingly unlikely for the rest of the year). Also this week, U.S. employment figures are released.
In Europe, The April CPI prints from the greater Eurozone, Germany, and Spain are coming out, as are the first quarter GDP figures. In Asia, this week, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI, hopefully giving markets more assurances that China’s economy is leveling out and returning to normal. Japan releases industrial production and labor data this week, as well as the Bank of Japan minutes from their March meeting.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Global
· G& Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy, through April 30.
· The World Economic Forum is holding a Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, through April 29.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinkin will leave for meetings in the Middle East through April 30. The meetings will be around the World Economic Forum event in Riyad, Saudi Arabia, where Blinken will also speak. He then goes on to Israel for meetings.
· The second Mexican presidential debate takes place in Mexico City.
· China will host three separate Latin American foreign ministers for separate meetings through April 30:
Bolivian Foreign Minister Celinda Sosa Lunda will visit Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Argentinian Foreign Minister Diana Mondino will visit Beijing for talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Mondino will seek to extend a currency swap with Beijing and seek to stabilize relations as Argentine President Javier Milei is seen growing away from China and closer to the US.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s national elections continue.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, April 29, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· A criminal hearing against Colombian President Gustavo Petro's son, Nicolas Petro, will begin in Barranquilla, Colombia, over allegations of taking bribes and money laundering.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates
· Colombia Unemployment Rate (March)
· Mexico Fiscal Balance (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will visit Indonesia for meetings with President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. This will be Lee’s final meeting with a foreign leader before he transfers power to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in mid-May. Wong will accompany him on the trip, Indonesia's foreign ministry said. The discussions are expected to cover topics such as food resilience, the green energy transition, and the development of Indonesia's new capital city, Nusantara.
· The IMF’s executive board meets to discuss the approval of $1.1bn funding for Pakistan, the last tranche of a $3bn standby arrangement secured last summer to avert a sovereign default and which runs out this month
· Japan will celebrate its Golden Week holiday through May 4, which will include multiple public holidays and spur significant travel in the country.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Singapore URA Property Index Final (Q1)/ Unemployment Rate Prel (Q1)/ Imports/ Exports/ PPI (March)
· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Industrial Production (April)
· Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (February)
· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (Q1)
· Sri Lanka PPI (March)
· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision
· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is expected to announce whether he will step down from office following revelations his wife is under investigation for corruption.
· Candidates for the European Commission presidency will debate in Brussels. Taking part in the debate are Walter Baier (Party of the European Left); Bas Eickhout (European Green Party); Valeriu Ghilețchi (European Christian Political Movement); Ursula von der Leyen (European People’s Party); Maylis Roßberg (European Free Alliance); Nicolas Schmit (Party of European Socialists); Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party); and Anders Vistisen (Identity and Democracy Party).
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will focus on the measures that have been proposed or taken so far that are aimed at simplifying the common agricultural policy (CAP) and strengthening the position of farmers in the food supply chain.
· The EU General Affairs Council will hold informal meetings in Brussels through April 30.
· Heathrow Airport Border Force employees are expected to go on strike through May 2.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks at a dinner at the Royal Automobile Club organized by Euro50 Group in London, UK.
· Slovakia Business and Consumer Confidence (April)
· Spain Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (April)
· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg/ Bavaria/ Brandenburg/ Hesse/ North Rhine Westphalia/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)
· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)
· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ Harmonised Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ Retail Sales (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Togo holds legislative and regional elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kenya Inflation Rate (April)
· Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Global
· The UN will hold a joint event of the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council on the theme “El Niño 2023-2024: Actions for the safety, sustainability and resilience of people and the planet”.
· The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific is released.
· Today is the last day of Passover.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The International Court of Justice holds preliminary hearings in Mexico’s case against Ecuador. In early April, Ecuadorian police broke into the Mexican Embassy to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been residing there to avoid arrest.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Unemployment Rate (March)/ PPI (March)
· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)
· Canada GDP (February)
· USA Employment Cost Index (Q1)/ Redbook (April/27)/ House Price Index (February)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/26)
· Chile Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Colombia Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Periklino Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta. More than 80 brands will be there to show the latest in EVs.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Construction Orders (March)
· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)
· Philippines PPI (March)
· Australia Housing Credit (March)/ Retail Sales Prel (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)
· China NBS & Non-Manufacturing & General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence (Q1)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)
· Thailand Current Account (March)/ Private Investment & Consumption (March)
· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)
· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)
· India Infrastructure Output (March)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at a conference entitled "Globalization: What's Next?" co-organized by Banque de France, CEPR, the World Bank, and the University of Surrey in Paris, France.
· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Milles gives a speech at the London Institute of Banking and Finance.
· France GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ PPI (March)
· Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)
· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ PPI (March)
· Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ Current Account (February)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)
· Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)
· Poland Inflation Rate Prel (April)
· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues (Q1)
· Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)
· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)
· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ Inflation Rate Flash (April)/ CPI Flash (April)
· Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)
· Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ M2 Money Supply (March)
· Ukraine Current Account (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (February)
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)
· Qatar Balance of Trade (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Budget Balance (March)
· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Wednesday, May 1, 2024
Global
· May Day is celebrated around the world. Many financial markets and banks globally are closed today.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Sentencing of co-founder of crypto platform Binance, Changpeng Zhao, over money laundering.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins meetings through May 2 on interest rates.
· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklern and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Parliament’s Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/26)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/26)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Brazil Balance of Trade (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Participation Rate (Q1)
· Australia Ai Group Industry, Construction, & Manufacturing Index (April)/ Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ Commodity Prices (April)
· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)
· Kazakhstan Current Account (Q1)
· India M3 Money Supply (April/19)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Labor Day in most of Europe. Banks and financial markets are closed.
· Today is the 20th Anniversary of the EU trading bloc enlarging to 25 member states (from 15 states).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)
· Israel Composite Economic Index (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Global
· The OECD Ministerial Council meeting takes place in Paris through May 3.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Unit Labour Costs Prel (Q1)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/27)/ Factory Orders (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/26)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)
· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Peru Inflation Rate (April)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to announce the creation of an international framework for generative AI at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Ministerial Council Meeting. During the two-day meeting in Paris. The framework is expected to include more than 40 countries.
· The Asian Development Bank holds its 57th annual meeting in Tbilisi, Georgia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Building Permits (March)
· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/27)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Building Permits Prel (March)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)
· Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)
· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)
· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President von der Leyen will travel to Lebanon with Cyprus President Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides. Together, they will meet with Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Azmi Mikati and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri. They are expected to discuss the situation in Israel and Gaza as well as migration issues.
· In England and the UK, local elections will be held for ten mayoral seats. Also, a by-election will be held for a Parliament seat.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board member Philip R. Lane will give a virtual guest lecture at the University of Stanford in Stanford, California.
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)
· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (February)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (April)
· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ New Car Sales (April)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ PPI (March)/ New Car Registrations (April)
· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Greece Unemployment Rate (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)
Friday, May 3, 2024
Global
· FAO Food Price Index (April)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, Brazil, and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena in Asuncion, Paraguay, through May 6.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee to participate in the panel before the hybrid" Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" event hosted by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Industrial Production (March)
· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)
· USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/03)
· Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (April)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Constitution Day in Japan, a national holiday. It commemorates when a new constitution was ratified in 1945.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (April)/ Home Loans (March)/ Investment Lending for Homes (March)
· Singapore Retail Sales (March)
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (March)
· India Bank Loan Growth (April/19)/ Deposit Growth (April/19)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/26)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)
· France Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (March)/ New Car Registrations (April)
· Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/26)
· Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Italy Unemployment Rate (March)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)
· Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (April)
· Germany New Car Registrations (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4
· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Global
· The Organization of Islamic Cooperation Banjul Summit is being held in the Republic of Gambia through May 5.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives two commencement speeches at Georgia College and State University (GCSU) in Milledgeville, Georgia.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Remembrance Day in the Netherlands. At 8 p.m., citizens across the country hold a two-minute vigil honoring the civilians and soldiers who died since the beginning of World War II.
· Today is the 800th day of the War in Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, May 5, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Panama holds general elections, choosing a new president and vice president. Currently, José Raúl Mulino of the Realizing Goals Party is leading over several other candidates.
· The 2024 Milken Institute Global Conference begins and runs through May 8 in Los Angeles.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to begin a tour of European nations beginning with a visit to France for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron. He then will go on to visit Hungary and Serbia. The visit comes at a time when the European Commission has recently launched an investigation into alleged preferences Beijing gives to Chinese companies in medical devices and green products such as wind turbines and solar panels.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 75th Anniversary of the Council of Europe being founded with the Treaty of London.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.