U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Treasury Deputy Secretary Quits, A Fed Governor May Be About to Be Fired, The SEC Gets a Marine, Fed Governor Waller Will Give a Speech, and Otherwise, It’s a Dead Quiet Week Ahead

August 25 - 29, 2025

The Washington Augusts of years past no longer exist – remember those days of high temperatures and sauna-like humidity, a tomb-quiet downtown, long weekends at the beach, and no major news headlines? 

As this past week showed, those days are gone as this past week showed.  In the last five days, we saw the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Michael Faulkender, unexpectedly resign after five months on the job, a well-respected Federal Reserve Governor, Lisa Cook, facing a pretty good chance of being fired by President Trump for cause (supposed mortgage fraud after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte somehow came across the documents and sent them to the Justice Department), and the Securities and Exchange Commission got a new Director of Enforcement, Meg Ryan, who is a former senior U.S. Marine Corps Judge Advocate (which my late father, who was a US Marine Corps Colonel, would surely shout “Oorah!” at the news of her appointment.)

 We suspect there will be a legal battle over whether President Trump can actually fire Fed Governor Cook, but it is also likely to be a messy fight as she will have to explain how she listed two separate properties as her primary residence on two separate mortgage applications submitted 15 days apart. 

We are not quite sure why Deputy Secretary Faulkender is stepping down, but it leaves Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with the top three roles either empty or with staff serving in acting roles (the Senate has not yet confirmed anyone to serve as Undersecretary for International Affairs or Undersecretary for Domestic Finance).

Looking at the week ahead, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be giving a speech in Miami on the economic outlook, CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham is giving a couple of speeches in Tokyo, and the SEC will be holding a Closed Meeting.  That’s it.   So – theoretically – it should be a very quiet week ahead.  But considering how the first three weeks of August have gone, we would not bet on it.

But here’s to hoping for a quiet week ahead, heading into the Labor Day weekend, the end of summer, and the return of Congress on September 2nd.   Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Thursday, August 28, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, August 28, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Tuesday, August 26, 12:55 p.m. (Tokyo) – CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak on “Writing the Rules for Cross-Border Web3: Regulatory Framework for Global Digital Assets” and then later participate in a fireside chat, “The Regulatory Reset: America's New Framework for Digital Assets” at Asia’s Leading Web3 Conference.

·       Wednesday, August 27, 2:00 p.m. (Tokyo) – CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak on “How to Shape the Regulations & Policies for the Next Era of Web3” at the Blockchain Leaders’ Summit Tokyo 2025.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Did Trump Just Hand China the Tools to Beat the US in AI?, The Strategic Mineral Alliance the West Needs, US Construction’s 5 Decades of Decline, and Democrats Face A Voter Registration Crisis

August 22 - 24, 2025

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

AI’s impact on National Security and GDP

• Trump Just Handed China the Tools to Beat America in AI   Matt Pottinger & Liza Tobin/The Free Press

  Pottinger, who served as Deputy National Security Advisor to President Trump in his first term, and Tobin, write President Trump’s team just gave China’s rulers the technology they need to beat us in the artificial intelligence race. If he doesn’t reverse this decision, they argue, it may be remembered as the moment when America surrendered the technological advantage needed to bring manufacturing home and keep our nation secure.  They argue we should not believe the claims that these chips aren’t very advanced. China’s lack of unfettered access to U.S.-designed AI chips, they write, is America’s clearest advantage in the AI race. By reversing the ban, the White House is helping Beijing’s Communist regime close the gap.

• Global Compute and National Security   Center for New America Security

  The United States faces a choice: leverage its current lead to promote U.S. AI infrastructure and applications globally, while preserving its edge at the frontier; or continue to primarily focus on protection, while other countries gradually narrow the gap. As Michael Kratsios, President Donald Trump’s science and technology advisor, put it: “It is not enough to seek to protect America’s technological lead. We also have a duty to promote American technological leadership.”  The protect and promote strategy outlined in this report offers a path to sustainable leadership that both safeguards critical capabilities and expands American influence in the global AI ecosystem.

• The Macro Impact of AI on GDP     the Overshoot

  Capital spending related to AI is growing so rapidly that it is now meaningful relative to the $30 trillion U.S. economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was about 0.2%-0.3% larger in 2025Q2 than it would have been if businesses’ spending on data center construction, computers and peripheral equipment, and communications equipment had grown in line with the 2011Q1-2022Q31 trend.  Moreover, this impact is likely understated, because existing methodologies are (probably) not fully capturing the investment being done by the five companies responsible for the bulk of the data center buildout: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. Those five companies also happen to be the ones with the five largest capex budgets in the entire S&P 500 in 2025Q2.  I estimate that U.S. GDP would be about 0.4% higher than currently reported—or about 0.6% higher than if there had been no AI boom—if the capital expenditures of the big 5 were fully incorporated into the official data. Or put yet another way, the growth in direct AI-related capex by the big 5 since mid-2023 would correspond to about 10% of the total increase in the dollar value of U.S. GDP over the past two years. Including additional capital spending on power plants and electricity generation would lead to an even larger number.

Geoeconomics

• Reform or Realignment? The Geopolitical Lessons of Bretton Woods    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The history of Bretton Woods sharpens questions about the issues and interdependencies that can provide the basis for any reform of existing institutions.

• Five Decades of Decline: U.S. Construction Sector Productivity   Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

  Construction labor productivity in the US fell by more than 30 percent from 1970 to 2020, while overall U.S. economic productivity doubled over the same period; Despite potential biases in price deflators, multiple studies confirm that the productivity decline is real, with physical measures like housing units per worker showing similar stagnation, and; Increasing land-use regulations may be a plausible cause for the decline, as more strict land-use regulations disincentivize construction companies from pursuing larger projects, keeping them relatively small. In addition, this reduces incentives for technological innovation and economies of scale.

•  The Ghost in Capitalism's Machine: Industrial policy returns to global trade   Peter Draper/ Hindrich Foundation

  Industrial policy is the ghost in capitalism’s machine — always present, rarely acknowledged. Even laissez-faire economies flirt with it, while denying its existence. It attracts polarized views anchored in ideological conceptions over how much power to accord states, or freedom to markets. Industrial policy is making a comeback as geopolitical contestation amongst the major powers sharpens.

Russia, Ukraine, and the Economic and Security Implications of a Possible Ceasefire

• Tanks, Tech, and Tungsten: The Strategic Mineral Alliance the West Needs     War on the Rocks

  What good is a tank if you can’t get the metals to build it?  This week’s meeting between U.S., Ukrainian, and European leaders showed potential progress towards security cooperation. And while the new U.S.-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund agreement marks an important step toward increasing the resilience of both U.S. and European supply chains, there is more work to be done. Building on this momentum, the United States and the European Union should seek closer critical minerals supply chain cooperation.  There are several opportunities for the two economies to work together by focusing on defense and security, rather than the economic and clean energy framing of the past. Tighter cooperation could strengthen the E.U. defense-industrial base, enhance military readiness, and strengthen NATO’s deterrence posture while enabling the United States to secure critical minerals, preserve manufacturing capacity, and redirect precious resources to the Indo-Pacific. Supply chain cooperation would also help both sides reduce dependence on China, which dominates the critical minerals market by creating oversupply and using export restrictions. Indeed, the China challenge requires the United States and Europe to work together.

• Russia’s Imperial Black Sea Strategy   Foreign Affairs

  Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and other neighbors is transforming the Black Sea into Eurasia’s strategic frontier. Russia has disrupted flows of energy, food, and other commodities; generated millions of migrants; and heightened insecurity not just in Ukraine but also across the entire Black Sea region. These efforts constitute part of a much longer and larger strategy. Russia does not merely seek to dominate Ukraine. It wants to render each of the other five states that border the Black Sea—as well as Moldova, which borders Romania and Ukraine and whose waters flow into the sea—subservient to its interests so that it can exercise veto power over choices these countries make. Moscow also aspires to use the Black Sea as a platform from which to project power and influence throughout the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and the Caucasus.

U.S. Politics & Elections 

• The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis    The New York Times

  According to an analysis conducted by the New York Times, the Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.  Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.  That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out of.

• Trump’s Tariffs and ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Face More Opposition Than Support as His Job Rating Slips   Pew Research Center

  The latest national survey by Pew Research Center – conducted Aug. 4-10 among 3,554 adults – finds that a 53% majority say President Trump is making the federal government work worse, while only about half as many (27%) say he is making the government work better. (Two-in-ten say he is making things about equally better and worse.)  Both Republicans and Democrats now offer more negative assessments of Trump’s impact on the federal government than they had predicted in a survey conducted in the weeks immediately following Trump’s inauguration. Six months into his second term, public evaluations of President Donald Trump’s job performance have grown more negative. His job approval stands at 38% (60% disapprove), and fewer Americans now attribute several positive personal characteristics to him than did so during the campaign.  Two of the new administration’s signature accomplishments – the rollout of its tariff policies and the tax and spending law known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” – garner considerably more disapproval than approval:

  • 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s tariff policies, while 38% approve.

  • 46% disapprove of the tax and spending law, while 32% approve (23% say they are unsure).

  • 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now say Trump is improving the way the federal government works – while 16% say he’s making things worse and 29% say his effect is a mix of positive and negative. In the weeks after he took office, 76% of Republicans expected he would make government work better.

  • 87% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say Trump is worsening the way government functions, up from 78% who said this at the beginning of his term.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosting An Extraordinary Meeting with Ukrainian President and Six European Leaders, Israel Poised to Approve A Controversial New West Bank Housing Plan, China Seeks a Deal with India on Their Border Dispute, and Global Central Bankers Converge on Jackson Hole

The busiest August we can remember in a long time looks to intensify this week.  Following President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump will host Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly longer-term peace terms.  In an extraordinary move, Zelensky will be accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

It appears, according to numerous reports, that President Trump is considering unprecedented US security guarantees for Ukraine in return for a peace deal.  But the entire situation remains tense and very much in flux.  Markets will be watching all of this closely tomorrow to get some indication of movement one way or another.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Higher Planning Committee will be considering a highly controversial plan to allow the building of 3,400 new homes in the West Bank for Israeli settlers.  The building plan, known as the E1 Settlement Project, would take place east of Jerusalem and is likely to be approved.  By doing so, it is seen as likely to block efforts to establish a Palestinian State, as Palestinian leaders had seen the land where the homes would be built as where they would build their capital.  EU leaders have urged Israel to refrain from approving the deal.

In Asia this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit New Delhi for the first time in three years to discuss possible measures to reduce troops on the Himalayan border, further reducing tensions between the two nations.   Later in the week, India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jainshankar, will travel to Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting comes after President Trump slapped 25% secondary tariffs on India on top of the existing 25% tariffs for their trade in Russian oil.   Markets will be watching closely for any movement between India and Russia – either pledging to continue the oil purchases or suggesting a slowdown.

The global economic radar screen this week is also a busy one.  The big event is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this week where central bankers from around the world will gather to talk and speak to the theme of event ““Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”    We are reminded that at last year’s Symposium, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell said it was time to lower rates, which the Fed then followed through on.  Will we hear him say something similar this year in his speech a month in advance of the Fed’s FOMC September meeting?

Also happening concurrently with the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, bringing together top crypto business leaders, US regulators, and members of Congress. 

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the Americas,  the US FOMC minutes from July are released on Wednesday, and  Canada releases July CPI figures on Tuesday.  In Asia, China’s central bank interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, South Korea’s July PPI on Thursday, and Japan’s July CPI data on Friday.  And in Europe, the UK releases July CPI on Wednesday, Germany’s June manufacturing index is out Tuesday, and July PPI data on Wednesday, Eurozone HICP inflation data on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PMI data for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and the UK. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

· The International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) conference takes place in Montreal, Canada, from August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Summit of the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) holds its 45th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

·       Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 18, 2025

Global

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House to discuss Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and next steps toward a possible cease fire in the Ukraine war.  Also attending the meeting will be ATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

·       Canada holds by-elections which could see Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre return to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

·       El Salvador PPI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India to discuss drawing down troops at their disputed border.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold their annual military drills, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield. About 18,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the live-fire exercises amid North Korea's warnings of reprisals for what it says is a "direct military provocation.”

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will visit Japan for meetings with Japanese officials to discuss bolstering their strategic relationship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       India Unemployment Rate (July)

·       China FDI (YTD) (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Financial Times Business Book of the Year longlist announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a visit to Armenia and Belarus for a two-day visit.  He will then travel on to Pakistan for bilateral meetings.

·       US envoys Thomas Barrack and Morgan Ortagus visit Beirut, Lebanon for meetings on how to further the peace process in the country and also further urge the disarming of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel group M23 to sign a peace agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Global

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) begins in Yokohama, Japan and runs through August 22. The conference is led by Japan and co-hosted by the United Nations, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Bank and African Union Commission (AUC). The theme of the conference is “Co-create innovative solutions with Africa”.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Building Permits (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Redbook (August/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index/ RBA Connolly Speech

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at Teton Village, Wyoming.  The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”  You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/15)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono will host German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Jakarta.

·       The Thailand Electronics Circuit Asia 2025 trade show kicks off in Bangkok. The three-day event will bring together hundreds of companies from across the tech supply chain, with a major focus on printed circuit boards, a key component used in all types of electronic devices.

·       The Taiwan Automation Intelligence and Robot Show opens in Taipei. Exhibitors at the four-day fair will show off the latest advances in smart manufacturing, robotics, artificial intelligence, and more.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor (business services) Michelle McPhee and assistant governor (financial system) Brad Jones take part in an online panel discussion at The Future of Money webinar.

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/08)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends a meeting of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Russian central bank publishes household inflation expectations.

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ PPI Output (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)/ Residential Property Prices (June)

·       Russia PPI (July)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel's Higher Planning Committee will vote on the E1 West Bank settlement plan which could allow 3,400 more Israeli settlement homes in the area.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a briefing on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/16)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment & New Orders & Prices Paid (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/20)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (July)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)               

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       India HSBC Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam S. Jaishankar.  They will discuss “key issues on our bilateral agenda, as well as key aspects of cooperation within international frameworks." 
Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

·       France HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Construction Output (June)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

Friday, August 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (August)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/22)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Criminal Court is due to hand down its verdict on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a lese majeste case. The 75-year-old Thaksin is accused of insulting the monarchy during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo in May 2015.

·       In South Korea, the People Power party to decide a new leader from a shortlist of four at its national convention. The embattled conservative party’s support has plummeted after disgraced former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Euro Area     ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung will make his first overseas trip for a bilateral summit when he travels to Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. After his Japan trip, Lee will head to Washington for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, August 25.

·       Taiwan holds a referendum on whether to restart its Maanshan nuclear power plant, the shutdown of which marked the end of the island's atomic energy era in May. The opposition Taiwan People's Party pushed for the vote on the grounds that reactivation is necessary for energy stability and security. President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has said he will vote "no." The referendum coincides with a handful of districts voting in recall elections against opposition Kuomintang lawmakers, after a larger first set of recall attempts all failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion at the annual Economic Policy Symposium entitled “The policy implications of labor market transition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

It’s All About Wyoming This Week

August 18 - 22, 2025

 ‘The time has come’ for rates cuts”

– Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 23, 2024

Washington will be quiet this week as Congress remains out of session for the August recess and the bulk of lobbyists are on vacation, too.  Instead, all the action will be in Wyoming this week – specifically, in Jackson Hole as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.  

All eyes and ears will be on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s economic outlook speech on Friday, with markets wondering: Will Powell repeat the above quote from his 2024 speech at the Symposium, cuing up a likely rate cut at September’s  Federal Open Market Committee? 

But that’s not all that is taking place around Jackson Hole this week: On the sidelines of the Economic Symposium will be the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025.  There is scheduled to be something of a “who’s who” of regulators and members of Congress.  Notably, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat discussing all things crypto, and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be giving a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System.”

Also speaking will be Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) – who is going to be quarterbacking this fall the legislative aspects of President Trump’s recently released digital financial technology strategy – and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets (and is known on Capitol Hill as the “Crypto Queen,”) as well as Tyler Williams who is Counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on digital asset issues.

And that is about it for this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

 U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

House of Representatives

• The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday, August 19, 2:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

• Wednesday – Saturday, August 21 – 23 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the Teton Village, Wyoming.  The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”  You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.

• Wednesday, August 20, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

• Friday, August 22, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, August 19, 1:00 p.m. ET – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

• Thursday, August 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Monday – Thursday, August 18 – 21 – The SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The speakers include SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), and Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list. 

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Implications of the Global AI Boom, China’s Latest Engineering Marvel, The Spread of “Mega Force” Middle East Spending, and Why Bolivia’s Election is So Important

August 15 -17, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully,  you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Implications of the Global AI Boom 

• How Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations  The Rand Corporation

  This report is intended to stimulate thinking among policymakers about possible impacts of the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on geopolitics and the world order by highlighting potential future scenarios for AGI's governance and its effects on global power dynamics. In this report, the authors focus on a variety of impacts — some of which are perhaps unlikely but significant — arising from AGI's development and deployment that could fundamentally alter the existing geopolitical order.  To drive thinking about these potential world-changing impacts, the authors develop eight illustrative scenarios based on the extent of centralization of AGI development and its geopolitical outcomes. These scenarios cover AGI impacts that empower the United States, that empower U.S. competitors, that cause a significant geopolitical shift, and that result in an interruption in the development of AGI.  These scenarios are designed to demonstrate how the extent of centralization in AGI development is a crucial determinant of the geopolitical outcomes that might materialize. In more-centralized scenarios, either the United States or an adversary could gain significant advantages, whereas decentralized development might lead to a multilateral governance model or even geopolitical destabilization if nonstate actors become significantly more powerful because of the development of AGI.

• ‘Absolutely immense’: the companies on the hook for the $3tn AI building boom   Financial Times

  Meta is building “Prometheus” and “Hyperion”, Elon Musk’s xAI has “Colossus”, and OpenAI is developing “Stargate” — each a more than $100bn project to build the world’s most powerful supercomputer and usher in a new generation of artificial intelligence. But each of those gargantuan ventures is just a fraction of the spending required to build the data centers needed to power the AI era: one of the biggest movements of capital in modern history. “The amount of capital required is absolutely immense,” said Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at private equity group Blackstone, which manages an $85bn data center platform. “The scale of the opportunity is exhausting the capital of [any one financial] market and is requiring an all-of-the-above approach, with private capital playing a very large role.” Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta will spend more than $400bn on data centers in 2026 — on top of more than $350bn this year.

• Trump's AI action plan pivots from guardrails to green lights  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Seizing on a historic boom of investment in artificial intelligence (AI), President Donald Trump unveiled his administration’s AI Action Plan at the end of July, with a goal of accelerating the development and diffusion of AI in the US and around the world while discarding the Biden administration’s cautious approach to regulating AI. Trump’s plan covers wide ground from workforce and infrastructure to refining export controls viewed as barriers to AI development in the US and export of US technology abroad, although provisions addressing concerns over safety and national security risk management are also included. The plan targets environmental regulations that have delayed power and data center buildouts as well as a growing patchwork of state AI laws that could fragment the US AI market. Ignoring earlier criticism from Trump, it also recommends continued support for the Biden-backed Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act of 2022, which has achieved historic success in attracting investment to produce advanced semiconductors in the US. Missing, however, is any easing of the administration’s tough policy discouraging immigration, a problem because the US needs to keep relying heavily on foreign talent to compete with China’s strong pipeline of AI researchers.

• GenAI Misinformation, Trust, and News Consumption: Evidence from a Field Experiment   Filipe Campante/Ruben Durante/Felix Hagenmeister/Ananya Sen – NBER

  Abstract: We study how AI-generated misinformation affects demand for trustworthy news, using data from a field experiment by a major German outlet, Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ). Readers were randomly assigned to a treatment highlighting the challenge of distinguishing real from AI-generated images. The treatment raised concern with misinformation (0.3 s.d.) and reduced trust in news (0.1 s.d.), including SZ. Importantly, it affected post-survey browsing behavior: daily visits to SZ digital content rose by 2.5% in the immediate aftermath of the treatment. Moreover, we find that subscriber retention increased by 1.1% after five months, corresponding to about a one-third drop in attrition rate. Results are consistent with a model where the relative value of trustworthy news sources increases with the prevalence of misinformation, which may thus boost engagement with those sources even while lowering trust in news content.

China

• China’s Role in Global Innovation Is Changing    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  For many years, China was widely viewed as a fast follower, leveraging access to foreign technology, expanding its manufacturing capacity, and competing primarily through cost advantages. While that characterization may have once captured the essence of China’s role in the global economy, it is increasingly incomplete. A growing body of evidence suggests that China is transitioning from technology absorber to innovation leader in its own right.  Across a range of indicators, China is now innovating and exporting technologies in sectors traditionally dominated by advanced economies, including the United States.1 This convergence is not merely the result of others moving on to new technologies. Rather, it reflects China’s deliberate and sustained investments in innovation, capabilities and industrial upgrading, part of a broader strategy to position itself as a peer competitor at the global technological frontier.

•  The Engineering Marvel That China Hopes Will Help Wean It Off Foreign Energy  Wall Street Journal

  China has begun the construction of a giant hydropower project at the earthquake-prone edge of the Tibetan plateau, a spectacular engineering feat that is central to Beijing’s enduring mission to become self-sufficient in critical areas such as energy. The $167 billion facility will require digging tunnels that plunge through high mountains to harness the power of a river that sharply descends through the deepest and possibly longest canyon on the planet.  If its planners succeed—after shrugging off objections from neighbors—the project could generate triple the output of the world’s largest hydroelectric facility, China’s Three Gorges Dam, which is big enough to power around 40 million Chinese homes.

•   China's Achilles Heel    Robin Brooks Substack

  Brooks, a senior economist at the Brookings Institution, points out Everyone has an Achilles heel. The US’ Achilles heel is irresponsibly wide budget deficits, which - in the ongoing tariff confrontation - create large vulnerabilities that China very skillfully exploited earlier this year. China has an Achilles heel too, which is that its growth model is almost entirely predicated on exports. This year’s sharp rise in US tariffs is undermining this growth model meaningfully.

Geoeconomics

• BRICS’ plans to replace the G7 are thin on the ground   OMFIF

  The hype about the demise of the G7 and the traditional system of financial governance has dominated the media in the last few years. However, the G7 is still going strong and the proposed alternative governance system – the Brics+ bloc – has not become operational. Governance is enacted through multilateral organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, through global banks, global financial markets, and regulations.

• Optimal Tariffs with Geopolitical Alignment    John Becko/Gene Grossman/Elhanan Helpman – NBER

  Abstract: As geopolitical tensions intensify, great powers often turn to trade policy to influence international alignment. We examine the optimal design of tariffs in a world where large countries care not only about economic welfare but also about the political allegiance of smaller states. We consider both a unipolar setting, where a single hegemon uses preferential trade agreements to attract partners, and a bipolar world, where two great powers compete for influence. In both scenarios, we derive optimal tariffs that balance terms-of-trade considerations with strategic incentives to encourage political alignment. We find that when geopolitical concerns are active, the optimal tariff exceeds the classic Mill-Bickerdike level. In a bipolar world, optimal tariffs reflect both economic and political rivalry, and may be strategic complements or substitutes. A calibration exercise using U.N. voting patterns, an estimate of the cost of buying votes in the U.N., and military spending suggests that geopolitical motives can significantly amplify protectionist pressures and that the emergence of a second great power can contribute to a retreat from globalization.

• Dollar Dominance Is Here to Stay      World Politics Review

  Six months into President Donald Trump’s second term, the conventional wisdom is clear: U.S. hegemony is in terminal decline, and the dollar’s run as the world’s dominant currency is ending. Between Trump’s frontal assault on democracy and the rule of law at home, and his aggressive protectionism and unilateralism abroad, uncertainty about U.S. economic and foreign policy and the future of the “liberal international order” are greater than ever.  Fearful of becoming the next target of tariffs and sanctions, and eager to insulate themselves from the uncertainty of Trump’s United States, foreign governments and investors are increasingly eager for alternatives to the dollar. Indeed, demand for alternatives may be greater now than at any point in the past 50 years. But demand is one thing. Supply is another altogether. If there is going to be a major shift away from the dollar, someone must provide viable alternatives, and the reality is that there are only two possible actors who could do that: the European Union and China. Neither is remotely ready, willing or able to do so, and the reason is precisely why so many observers around the world are now worried about the dollar: domestic politics.

The Middle East

• The ‘Mega Forces’ Spreading Middle East Wealth Across the Globe   Bloomberg/Businessweek

  When Iran launched a missile barrage at an American air base in Qatar this summer, it was one of the most direct attacks on US assets in the Middle East in years. Yet just hours after the projectiles were shot down in the night sky over Doha, it was business as usual in the country’s capital and financial hub. In neighboring Abu Dhabi, investments proceeded on track, and bankers in Dubai expressed confidence that the United Arab Emirates would sidestep any major fallout. In the weeks after the attack, Bloomberg News reported that American companies including BlackRock Inc. and Elon Musk’s xAI were discussing deals in Saudi Arabia.  It will apparently take more than a few ballistic missiles to shake the business community’s confidence in the Middle East. With its low-tax regimes and growing pool of sovereign and family wealth—which now tops $5 trillion—the region has weathered all kinds of instability. Even as conflict in the area has greatly intensified since 2023, investors there are signaling that the Middle East is still open for business, and global companies are eager to accept their money.

The Americas

• Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes    ACLED

  The dispute between Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce has triggered deadly violence in defense of Morales’ cause, which signals the power of his supporters to question the legitimacy of an election that excludes the former president.
  

• How the US and Colombia can tackle crime, migration, and fallout from Venezuela’s crisis  The Atlantic Council

  While the United States seeks to prevent more migration from Venezuela, the strain of hosting 2.8 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees is putting Colombia on the back foot in its fight against transnational criminal groups.  Bilateral efforts to improve security cooperation, reduce irregular migration sustainably, and improve opportunities for Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia can benefit both countries.   Colombia must balance between asserting regional leadership in managing the Venezuelan crisis—which requires a clear strategy—and keeping a communication channel open without legitimating Nicolas Maduro’s rule.

The US/UK Trade Agreement: A One-Off Special or Precedent for Other Trade Deals

By Samantha Valentino, Global Market Risk Analyst

August 14, 2025

On June 16th, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order outlining the new United States-United Kingdom Prosperity Deal. This marks the first trade deal to be signed by the new Trump administration and the first signed since Trump announced global tariffs on “Liberation Day” ,April 2, 2025. While some details of the agreement include tangible commitments, it is mostly comprised of promises for future, undated action. More importantly, it was seen as a possible template for other trade deals, but this was not the case. Indeed, the US-UK trade deal appears to be a special deal that has not been offered to any other countries (so far).  

The details of the trade agreement are as follows: 

• The UK agrees to buy more US goods, such as beef, ethanol, and agricultural products, and remove regulations that “unfairly discriminate” against American products. 

• The US has agreed to decrease car export tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-produced cars to enter the US in a year. Any following cars will face an up to 25% tax. Additionally, the US committed to removing taxes on the aerospace industry from 10% to 0%- including engines and aircraft parts.  

• Additionally, the UK is the ONLY country to avoid the steel and aluminum global tariff of 50%, which the US will waive for the UK. Contingent on a Section 232 investigation, the United States will allow for special advantages for UK pharmaceuticals in US markets. They will also look to work through any future Section 232 concerns in the future, ensuring economic cooperation and predictability.  

Pointedly, this is the first US deal that has focused on the car industry, and one of the reasons observers were hoping it would be reflective of where the US was going to come out in trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea, both major auto manufacturing companies. This is a big win for the UK, especially as it promises to stabilize and perhaps grow employment in that industry.  

Additionally, the steel and pharmaceutical industries are looking at potential boosters from this deal. For the US, this deal is as significant as it reduces inequitable treatment in the UK for US producers and a boost in sales for the beef, ethanol, and agricultural sectors..    

Currently, the US has followed through in lowering tariffs for the car industry, but they have yet to lower steel tariffs. As noted above, much of the rest of the deal remains up to future deliberations.   

However, this is still a notable trade deal because it affirms the positive relationship that President Trump has with the UK. Trump’s willingness to sign a trade deal with the UK and not the EU is significant and reveals his willingness to work towards a strong economic alliance with the UK. The US will likely pursue further trade deals with the UK, especially due to expressed disappointment with the UK’s current Digital Services Tax, which remained unchanged with this current trade deal.   

Watch for Trump’s second state visit to Windsor Castle, which is out of the ordinary, considering no other US president has ever been invited out for a second state visit. This visit is expected to take place in September and could yield more trade agreements or even talks of free trade. While the US only has free trade with 20 countries through 14 agreements and Trump’s universal 10% tariff is still in place, there could be future talks of free trade.  

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

President Trump’s Big Week in Financial Services:  Opens Up 401(k)’s Investments, Signs an Executive Order on Debanking, Names a New Fed Governor, and Meets Wall Street CEOs to Get Advice on Privatizing the GSEs

August 11 - 15, 2025

We warned you it would not be a quiet August in Washington.  Despite Congress and most Washington movers and shakers being on vacation, President Trump was very busy on a number of financial fronts.  On Thursday, he signed an Executive Order (EO) to allow 401(k)s to invest in private equity, cryptocurrency, and real estate.  That EO instructs the Department of Labor and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on such investments. 

The President quickly followed that up with another EO directing bank regulators to look into whether banks discriminate on political and religious grounds that lead to them “debanking” clients – something that happened to Trump after the January 6th riot on Capitol Hill. 

We also learned this week that the President met with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and Citi CEO Jane Fraser to get their ideas on how to privatize the two giant government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  The House Financial Services Committee let it be known this past week that they intend to take up legislation in early 2026 to refloat both entities, which were taken over by the US government after the 2008 financial crisis.

And to top it all off, the President was able to name a new Federal Reserve Board Governor following the resignation of Governor Andriana Kugler. Trump named the current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran, to fill her seat (which is set to expire in January).  While the addition of Miran to the Federal Reserve Board will not necessarily tip the balance of governors voting for a rate cut - Miran won’t be confirmed by the Senate in time for the September Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting – it will tip the balance on any votes the Fed Board makes on regulatory issues.  The FMOC is composed of all seven members of the Board of Governors and the President of the New York Fed, plus four rotating regional Fed governors.  But when the Fed votes on any regulatory issues – like the recent large bank capital rule – it is only the seven-member board of governors casting votes.  Long story short: Miran’s joining the board is a big win for Vice Chair Michelle Bowman as she will have a majority of support as she moves to reshape and reform the larger financial regulatory architecture.

The only other big news of the week was that a federal judge ruled the Federal Reserve exceeded its authority on setting limits on debt card interchange fees – a victory for merchants that had opposed the banks and the Fed on the rule. Undoubtedly, this is headed to the appellate court and then probably the Supreme Court.

So what is going to happen this coming week?  Right now, there is really not much on the calendar among the regulators other than the Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation holding a board meeting.  And the House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institution Subcommittee is holding a field hearing in Riverside, Ohio, on “Securing the Supply Chain.”

And that is about it.  We hope you have a great week.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.  However, the House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee field hearing on "Securing the Supply Chain: The Defense Production Act in Focus."  The hearing is being held at the National Museum of the United States Air Force in Riverside, Ohio.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

 Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       Thursday, August 14, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will hold a meeting to review the Annual Report on the Farm Credit System’s Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Mission Performance.  They will also get a brief on the Report on Startup Costs for New Farmers and Ranchers.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Wednesday, August 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Heritage Foundation is holding a panel discussion entitled “The Future of Farming: Exploring a Pro-Health, Pro-Farmer Agenda.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump to Host Putin in Alaska in a Bid for Ukraine Peace, The Deadline for the End of the US–China Tariff Pause Looms, and Markets Get Ready for A Busy Economic Calendar

August 10 - 17, 2025

While most of us were looking forward to a quiet August and some time away from the office and our computer screens, the month is proving to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events and a steady stream of breaking news headlines. 

With that in mind, this coming week, arguably one of the biggest events of the year will take place when President Trump hosts Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine.  The question of the day is whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be invited to attend the Friday meeting, too, as European leaders are urging Trump to extend an invitation to him.

Considering the initial terms of any ceasefire seem to be allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian land it has seized over the last three years - including Crimea -  you would think the Ukrainian President should be present.   Zelensky has already rejected the idea of ceding any Ukrainian land to Russia.  

Markets and Western leaders intently watch the lead-up to Friday’s meeting  (markets and policymakers seem to be bracing for the high likelihood of surprise twists, turns, and demands from Putin in the next few days before the summit) and what might or might not come of it all.   

But markets are also focused on Tuesday when the pause on tariffs between China and the US is set to expire.  The pause put in place by President Trump brought the tariffs down from 145% to 30% for US tariffs and from 145% to 10% for Chinese tariffs on US goods. As to whether President Trump will again extend the pause is unclear at this point, but seen as likely – perhaps another 90 days – as a way to further warm up relations between Beijing and Washington.

But one complication could be President Trump’s ramping up of tariffs on India for purchasing sanctioned Russian oil, which in turn impacts China as it will likely lead to higher oil prices and raise the question of when Trump will place tariffs on China, which also purchases sanctioned Russian oil and gas.

Another aspect of the Trump tariff efforts is likely to be announced sometime this week, too, when the President announces the results of Section 232 investigations in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.  It is expected he will slap heavy tariffs on both sectors, perhaps as high as 150% on pharmaceuticals and 100% on semiconductors. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a busy week of data releases and reports.  In the US, the July CPI report is out on Tuesday, PPI is out Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for August is out Friday.    On top of these three big reports, we will see retail sales figures and industrial production numbers out on Friday. 

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Monday.  China released inflation data on Saturday (which was reported as being flat).  This coming Friday, China will be releasing its house price index, industrial production numbers, retail sales, and unemployment figures.   And Japan will be releasing PPI on Wednesday and Q2 GDP figures on Friday.

Moving over to Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey and CPI are released on Tuesday, and the UK releases Q2 GDP figures on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security: Prevention, innovation and international cooperation to address emerging challenges.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will hold a press conference to address crime in Washington, D.C.  Trump may announce his intention to call out the National Guard to help enforce a crackdown on crime.

·       Peru's President Dina Boluarte visits Japan and Indonesia.

·       The US Congress is in recess for the month of August and returns September 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Industrial Production (June)

·       Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's General Secretary To Lam and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will hold a bilateral summit part of Lam's four-day state visit to South Korea through Wednesday. Lam will be the first foreign leader hosted by Lee since the South Korean president took office in June, and the visit comes at a time of blossoming bilateral ties.

·       Today is Mountain Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Salzburg Festival 2025 begins and runs through August 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (June)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (June)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       OPEC releases its monthly report on oil production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The temporary pause agreed to between the US and China on trade tariffs expires.

·       Uruguayan unions will conduct a partial strike to oppose the wage adjustment for public sector workers.

·       Mexico hosts a U.N. conference on the status of women in Latin America and the Caribbean.

·       In French Guiana, the Ariane 6 rocket launch, carrying EUMETSAT’s Metop-SGA1 satellite, is the first of the next generation of European polar-orbiting weather satellites.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses the Health Management Academy at the Four Seasons Hotel Chicago.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ Redbook (August/09)/ Fed Schmid Speech/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/08)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (June)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       India Inflation Rate (July)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases an updated list of its holdings in the 9,000 companies it is invested in worldwide, plus second-quarter results, at a press conference in Arendalsuka, Norway.

·       Armenia and the US will hold joint military exercise in Armenia – The Eagle Partner 2025 – through August 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Claimant Count Change (July)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Turkey Current Account (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)/ Current Account (June)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)/ Unemployed Persons Q2

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (June)

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Global

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its monthly oil production report for all OECD member countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce in Greenville, South Carolina.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at a lunch hosted by the state central bank alongside the Franklin County Economic Development Authority

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks on regional monetary policy at a lunch, hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/08)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/08)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Singapore           Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

·       Australia Home Loans Q2/ Investment Lending for Homes Q2/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q2

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       China Vehicle Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (July)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Romania Current Account (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (June)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union – AIP Water Investment Summit 2025 begins in Cape Town, South Africa and runs through August 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (June)

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan unions will stage demonstrations against government repression in Caracas..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a webinar conversation hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/02)/ PPI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/13)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, the trial of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai reconvenes for closing arguments. The founder of the pro-democracy news outlet Apple Daily, which was forced to close in 2021, has been held in solitary confinement for nearly 1,700 days under the controversial national security law that China imposed on the city. Western governments and human rights groups have called for his release.

·       Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

·       India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (July)

·       China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Labour Productivity Q2/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Russia Current Account Q2

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (July)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump to meet his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in Alaska to discuss a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine conflict.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Expectations/ Conditions Prel (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a speech at the Red Fort in Delhi to mark the anniversary of India’s independence from British rule in 1947.

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver his first State of the Nation Address, in which he will explain the government's priority programs for the coming year. The speech will also include key economic targets, highlighting the administration's fiscal direction under his leadership. The address comes ahead of Indonesia's 80th Independence Day celebrations on Sunday.

·       Madagascar will host the 45th summit of the Southern African Development Community in Antananarivo.   The members of the Community include Angola,  Botswana. Comoros , Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar , Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique. Namibia, Seychelles,  South Africa. Tanzania. Zambia and Zimbabwe.

·       Beijing hosts the 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games, the first global sporting event dedicated solely to humanoid robots, which runs until Sunday.

·       Today is Independence Day in South Korea. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Food Inflation (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/09)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/09)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ FDI (YTD) (July)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/01)/ Deposit Growth (August/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (June)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liechtenstein National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Building Permits (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa will hold its first-ever National Convention with political, business, and civil rights groups.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

§  India celebrates Janmashtami, a Hindu festival marking the birth of Krishna, the eighth avatar of Vishnu, featuring dramatic re-enactments of the life of Krishna throughout Mathura and Vrindavan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 17, 2025

 Global

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Mexico’s Oil Giant is at a Crossroads, Can Iran Rebuild its Nuclear Program, and Just How Desperate is their Leadership?, Why US House Prices Stayed Resilient Versus the Rest of the World,  and America’s Population Crash

August 8 - 11, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Americas 

• Pemex Is at a Crossroads        Americas Quarterly

  Mexico’s government announced a deal to support the deteriorating finances of the state-owned oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos SA (Pemex). By issuing instruments called pre-capitalized notes, the Sheinbaum administration hopes to stabilize the financial performance of a company that has been reporting losses for at least the last 10 years. However, Pemex is besieged not only by mounting financial liabilities but also by a series of issues that compromise its future and, to some extent, its current operations.

• Assessing the Impact of China-Russia Coordination in the Media and Information Space   Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Since the announcement between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping of a “no limits partnership” on the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, concerns have swirled over the potential for a new axis of revisionist authoritarian powers. Spearheaded by Moscow and Beijing, such an alliance could not only threaten the Eurasian landmass but reach across oceans to challenge the United States in the Western Hemisphere. However, the full implications and scope of the China-Russia partnership, particularly as it may pertain to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The CSIS Americas Program designed a novel tabletop exercise to better understand the consequences.  The findings found that when given the opportunity to coordinate, China and Russia eagerly did so and were able to secure a favorable outcome to the initial crisis. However, on the subsequent game turn, the United States, which had invested in building more long-term influence in the region, nevertheless secured its preferred policy outcome in both iterations of the game  This suggests that U.S. influence in LAC appears to remain sizeable, but closer China-Russia cooperation should be accorded more gravity than it currently receives in policy discussions.

Iran’s Future

• Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild?   The Center for Strategic and International Studies

  In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, “Operation Midnight Hammer,” policymakers and experts launched into a heated debate not only about the physical damage of the strikes but also about their impact on Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. Recent satellite imagery allows us to have a more realistic picture of the extent of the damage from the Israeli and U.S. strikes. It also provides insights into Iran’s initial efforts to rebuild its nuclear program and can help identify potential pathways for developing a covert nuclear weapons program, including establishing a third site to process its existing stockpile of 400 kilograms (kg) of highly enriched uranium (HEU). We determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and human capital. Israel’s broader campaign against Iran also targeted military leaders, Iranian missiles, and defense industrial base targets. The precision of these operations revealed a deep penetration of intelligence, particularly by Mossad, into Iran’s nuclear program. The strikes did not, however, completely eliminate the nuclear program, with some infrastructure remaining intact, and the status of the HEU stockpile remains unknown. But whether or not Iran rebuilds its nuclear program is ultimately a political decision and will depend on three sets of factors: decision-making in Tehran, diplomacy with the United States, and Israel.

• Iran’s Dangerous Desperation: What Comes After the 12-Day War     Suzanne Maloney/Foreign Affairs

  As the writer James Baldwin once remarked, “The most dangerous creation of any society is the man who has nothing to lose.” That description might now apply to the men who preside over the ruins of Iran’s revolutionary system. With their proxy network degraded, their air defenses demolished, and their great-power alignments exposed as hollow, the debilitated guardians of the Islamic Republic require new tools to keep the wolves at bay. It is difficult to predict with confidence how factional dynamics will evolve in the aftermath of the regime’s humbling; further surprises may be in store. But there can be little doubt that the most powerful set of players in Tehran will seek to reconstitute the remnants of its nuclear program and reassert the regime’s dominance over Iranian society.

U.S. Economics and Demographic Changes

• Why U.S. House Prices Stayed Resilient While Prices Fell in Other Countries    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Following decades of low and stable inflation, the period from 2021 to 2024 marked a dramatic global surge in inflation and an unprecedented cycle of monetary tightening. This recent monetary tightening cycle created a puzzle: Why did housing markets across developed countries respond so differently to the same global pressures?  For example, during the 2020-21 expansion, the U.S. and Canada experienced house price appreciation of more than 25% while Sweden recorded increases approximately half as large. (See the first figure.) But when central banks began aggressive tightening in 2022, a striking divergence emerged. The U.S. housing market showed remarkable resilience, with only moderate price adjustments despite Federal Reserve rate hikes that pushed mortgage rates from 2.8% to 6.8%. In stark contrast, Sweden and Canada experienced sharp corrections, with Swedish prices falling substantially below their 2019 baseline levels.

• Sprinters, Marathoners & Skeptics on the Future of AI & Power   War on the Rocks

  Will AI eat the world and America’s defense budget? I think of those who toil at the intersection of AI and national security as being divided into three camps: Sprinters hold the most aggressive assumptions and believe profound disruption via artificial general intelligence is imminent; marathoners believe the technology will diffuse selectively, sector-by-sector; and skeptics draw analogies to the dot-com bubble.  America’s near-term AI strategy should align with one of these three approaches. If the sprinter scenario holds, the United States should go all-out to rapidly acquire artificial general intelligence — defined here as human-level intelligence. If the skeptics are right, however, then the United States should do virtually the opposite and avoid overbuilding and overextension. If the marathoners are most correct, then the United States will conduct a complicated, long-term technological competition with a country four times its population.

• Consumer Inflation Expectations Across Surveys and over Time   Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Different survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations have diverged in recent months. This Economic Commentary compares these measures and the survey questions underlying them. Our analysis suggests that the divergences across survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be attributed to various features and sample characteristics specific to each survey.

• Changes in Milestones of Adulthood     U.S. Census Bureau

  ABSTRACT: This study uses nationally representative data from 2005 and 2023 to examine changes in young adults’ (ages 25-34 years old) experiences reaching five milestones of adulthood: living away from their parents, completing their education, labor force participation, marrying, and living with a child. Changes are considered for individual milestones, as well as for combinations of milestones. The types and combinations of milestones young adults experience have seen major shifts in the past several decades, with growth in the shares experiencing economic markers, and reductions in those who experience family formation events. between 2005 and 2023, the fraction of Americans aged 25–34 who completed their education rose from 74% to 83%, but the percentage of “ever married” fell from 62% to 44%, and the percentage with “a child in the household” fell from 55% to 39%.

• America’s Fertility Crash Reaches A New Low   The Economist

  In recent years, birth rates have dropped only slightly in places where they have long been low. Four of the five least fertile states in 2014, including Connecticut and Massachusetts, have seen their rates decrease by less than the national average. It is in states that have been historically the most fertile where the fall has been precipitous; Alaska, North Dakota and Utah have seen some of the steepest declines. All told, states that had above average fertility rates in 2014 are responsible for more than 80% of the collapse in American birth rates over the past decade.

• As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data   Peterson Institute for International Economics

  US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with the growth of the labor force, and growth rates of output and consumption will fall even if per capita output and consumption hold steady. The total US population is growing at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent, down from 1 percent in late 2023. With slower population growth, any given level of monthly payroll growth, consumption growth, or output growth reflects a stronger economy than it did a year ago. Population growth is not only slowing; it has also become more volatile and harder to estimate. It is likely that current population estimates for 2025 that statistical agencies are incorporating into economic data are too high and will be revised downward; current population estimates imply much higher immigration in 2025 than is likely under current administration policy. Economic data will need to be reinterpreted and revised in line with future adjustments to population estimates.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The White House Releases Digital Financial Technology Report, Fed Governor Kugler Steps Down, the SEC Takes a Road Trip While the Rest of Washington Goes on Vacation

August 4 - 8, 2025

Congress is gone until early September, and lawyers, lobbyists, and public affairs experts are streaming out of the Capital for vacation.  There is not a lot going on this week in the financial regulatory space other than Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaking at the Kansas Bankers Association.

But last week ended up being a blockbuster of regulatory activity before vacations started.  First, the White House released its long-awaited report “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology.”  The report is chock-full of orders for the SEC and CFTC to begin the process of further refining the crypto regulatory world and recommendations for Congress to move on legislation.  

The report came on the heels of a major speech by SEC Chair Paul Akins launching a new initiative at the SEC seeking to update the financial markets and its structure.  Dubbed “Project Crypto” the overall will touch all aspects of the financial markets the SEC regulates.

But we also saw at the CFTC another setback for Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz’s confirmation – this time being the White House asking the Senate Agriculture Committee to hold up on a committee confirmation vote for unexplained reasons.   A variety of wild reasons are being pointed to being the cause ranging from the Winklevoss twins complaining about Quintenz to President Trump to forces inside leading emails putting Quintenz in a bad light (the best read-out of the situation can be found in July 31 edition of Capitol Account – still by the far the best in-depth regulatory source you can find out there.). Whatever the reason, Quintenz is not likely going to get confirmed until late September or sometime in October at the earliest.

Also last week, Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler announced her intention to step down from the Fed five months early.  This gives President Trump the opportunity to put one more friendly vote on the Fed.  What we are waiting for is to see if another Fed Governor steps down soon, too.  We have reason to believe another has raised his hand inside the Fed to Chair Jay Powell.  When that resignation comes, we do not know.  But it is coming.

As we said above, there really is not much going on this week in Washington, as you can see below.  We hope you have a great week.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Wednesday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual).  Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

·       Thursday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

·       Saturday, August 9, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       August 4 – December 5 – The SEC’s Crypto Task Force begins holding regional roundtables around the country to hear from representatives of crypto-related projects that have 10 or fewer employees and are less than two years old.

·       Thursday, August 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

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