Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. – China Trade Policy in the New Trump Era, Why Governments Can’t Pay Their Way To Higher Birth Rates, Zambia’s Debt Turnaround, and How Water Security Is A Risk for A Quarter of the World’s 500 Largest Cities

January 31 - February 2, 2025

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. – China Relations in the Trump Era

• Advancing U.S.-China Coordination amid Strategic Competition  Ryan Hass, Ryan McEleveen, and Lily McElwee/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Frictions between the United States and China are intensifying, yet even past geopolitical rivals found ways to collaborate on shared challenges where it squarely served national interests. In November 2022, the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies and the Brookings John L. Thornton China Center launched a project to explore safe and effective methods for collaboration among nonstate actors on key challenges facing both nations. The following brief distills takeaways from this work, which included historical case studies of collaboration during the Cold War, workshops with U.S. and PRC experts, and a track 2 dialogue on climate-smart agriculture designed to probe emerging findings.

• Meeting China’s Trade and Tech Challenge: How the US and Europe Can Come Together   Daniel S. Hamilton/Center for European Policy Analysis

  This series analyzes the impact of China’s rise on transatlantic ties and presents ideas about how to forge a constructive partnership to meet the China challenge. It is based on a yearlong series of CEPA-sponsored workshops of leading European and US experts that I chaired together with Lucinda Creighton under the Chatham House Rule. The basic question we addressed is whether Donald Trump’s new administration and Europe’s new leaders believe their own bilateral disputes are more or less important than the need to adopt joint or complementary approaches to China. Does the Trump administration believe it can and should fight predatory Chinese economic practices on its own, or forge a broad coalition of countries that could impose far greater costs on China than individual efforts? Are Europeans willing and able to bridge their own considerable differences over both China and Trump’s America to help lead such a coalition? 

• Can Trump Seize the Moment on China?    Ryan Hass/Brookings Institution

  The U.S.-China relationship President Donald J. Trump inherited is vastly different than the one he handed off to the Biden administration in 2021. China continues to expand its global influence and industrial output, but it also faces challenges at home from a softening economy and an increasingly sclerotic and centralized political decision-making process. Trump’s team holds a variety of viewpoints on how to maximize America’s leverage or even on what objectives America should pursue in its competition with China. Left unaddressed, this variance in views risks leading to policy incoherence. To overcome this risk, Trump will need to set a firm direction, identify specific objectives, and put his advisors on notice that they will pay a cost for actions that undermine his goals. Trump has an opportunity to craft a strong policy to move the U.S.-China relationship toward becoming fairer and more equitable. Whether he seizes this opportunity may depend upon the degree to which he acts with purpose, maintains focus, and imposes discipline over a sprawling set of actors within his administration who will implement America’s China strategy.

U.S. and Global Economics

• Dysfunction in Federal Budgeting: Structural Factors and Selected Reforms   James Capretta/American Enterprise Institute

  Abstract: Both major US political parties want to avoid the responsibility of reducing projected future budget deficits, which are expected to persist indefinitely. Having stronger leaders would help, but the primary causes of ongoing fiscal deterioration run deep and will not be easily addressed. Multiple federal laws govern budget decisions, but there is no regularized pathway for Congress and the president to agree on binding fiscal plans. Further, the budget is now dominated by benefits paid directly to individuals, which has changed the candidate-voter relationship. Finally, the United States’ unique approach to health care makes identifying bipartisan cost-saving reforms challenging. Policymakers must think strategically about changes that account for these structural factors. They should focus on the statutory facilitation of legislative-executive budgetary agreements, long-term fiscal stability rather than fleeting near-term objectives, automatic solvency adjustments in Social Security and Medicare, stronger price competition in health care, and sustained funding increases for critical military accounts.

• Sovereign Debt Restructuring with China at the Table: Forward Progress but Lost Decade Risk Remains   Gregory Makoff/Théo Maret/Logan Wright  Harvard Kennedy School Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government

  Sovereign debt restructuring deals have not been smooth sailing over the last few years. They have moved slowly, been marked by bickering between China and G7 stalwarts, and the outcomes have been inconsistent. Recent policy innovations, however, have successfully accelerated the pace at which deals are being completed — that’s the good news. The bad news is that China remains highly reluctant to grant permanent debt relief. Deals are coming faster, but debt relief may be insufficient to avoid repeat restructurings. This is deeply unfortunate in the post-Covid-19 context, with many lower income countries at or near debt distress.

• America First Trade Policy     The White House

  President Trump issued a memorandum on January 20th outlining his overall trade and global economic policy views and objectives.  Overall, the President states: “Americans benefit from and deserve an America First trade policy.  Therefore, I am establishing a robust and reinvigorated trade policy that promotes investment and productivity, enhances our Nation’s industrial and technological advantages, defends our economic and national security, and — above all — benefits American workers, manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, entrepreneurs, and businesses.”

• The Baby Gap: Why Governments Can’t Pay Their Way to Higher Birth Rates   Financial Times

  The decline in fertility rates threatens to lead to deep economic malaise. Fewer babies and more older residents lead to a lower proportion of people of working age, denting tax revenues at the same time as costs associated with aging societies, such as state pensions and healthcare, increase. Without sufficient policy action, analysts at rating agency S&P Global estimated in 2023 that fiscal deficits would balloon by 2060 from a global average now of 2.4% of GDP to 9.1%. The global net government debt to GDP level would very nearly triple.

The Global Challenge to and Race for Access to Natural Resources

• From Water Supply Crises to Building Urban Water Security  Rand

  Secure, affordable, and equitably delivered high-quality water supplies are central to human health, well-being, and economic development—especially in urban areas. Despite efforts by many policymakers to invest in healthy ecosystems and responsible management practices, a quarter of the world’s 500 largest cities already experience water stress, affecting nearly 400 million people and $4.8 trillion in economic activity.  Because of varied combinations of climate change, population growth, overextraction of natural resources, and pollution, cities around the world have had to navigate severe water supply crises. Many cities have been to the brink—they have had to confront near-catastrophic risks to their water supplies.

Africa

• Zambia’s Debt Turnaround   Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)

  In November 2020, Zambia became the first African nation to default on its debt during the COVID-19 pandemic, a stark warning of the dangers of economic over-reliance on commodities like copper.  Zambia’s 2020 debt crisis resulted from years of structural weaknesses and external shocks. For decades, the country relied heavily on copper mining, a sector prone to global price fluctuations. While Zambia experienced a copper boom in the 1960s, later decades saw unstable prices that strongly disrupted its fiscal and trade balance. To diversify its economy, Zambia began investing in infrastructure in the late 2000s. Many of these initiatives were funded by external borrowing, including significant loans from Chinese lenders. These borrowing patterns contributed to rising debt levels and unsustainable interest payments, compounding Zambia’s fiscal challenges.Despite these setbacks, projections for 2025 are optimistic, with anticipated GDP growth rates ranging from 4.1% by the World Bank to 6.6% by Zambia’s Finance Minister.  However, long-term success depends on several key issues, including the need for economic diversification, improved governance and enhanced resilience to climate change. 

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Senate Banking And House Financial Services Committees Rev Up for A Busy Year, Banks Wondering Where are the New Financial Regulators?  

The inaugural was cold but exciting.  Lots of parties and fun times (or so we heard – we stayed home. Just too cold for us!).  Now, Washington is back to work.  The two key financial services-focused committees in Congress – the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) and the Senate Banking Committee are beehives of meetings and strategy sessions.  

The HFSC has announced a full agenda for February, holding at least five hearings ranging from “Making Community Banking Great Again” to hearings on crypto and the California wildfires and the insurance industry to examining policies to counter China. 

The Senate Banking Committee is also beginning to announce a series of hearings in February, starting with one looking at debanking in America.

But Washington’s regulatory world is chattering amongst themselves, all asking the same question: Where are President Trump’s much-anticipated nominations for the financial regulatory agencies?  So far, the President has nominated only one regulator – Paul Atkins for SEC Chair.  Moreover, two Biden regulators are still in their chairs and working away – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu.  Having Chopra there is driving banks crazy as they are hoping for a more friendly regulator and fast.

And when will we formally hear who is replacing Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr, overseeing supervision?  There are only two options for President Trump as there are only two Republicans on the Board (aside from Fed Chair Jay Powell) to pick from: Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.  Everyone assumes Bowman will be the pick as she is a former state bank commissioner and a community banker.  But for whatever reason, nothing has happened.  We are monitoring the nomination process closely. 

But for now, below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week (there really isn’t much going on:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Wednesday, January 29, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services Secretary.

·       Wednesday, January 29, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Special Committee on Aging holds a hearing on "Making Washington Work for Seniors: Fighting to End Inflation and Achieve Fiscal Sanity."

House of Representatives

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday & Wednesday, January 28 – 29 – The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rates.  There will be a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on January 29.

· Friday, January 31, 8:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give Brief Remarks on the Economy and Perspectives on Mutual and Community Banks at the Northern New England CEO Summit.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Monday, January 27, 11:15 a.m. – SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce will speak at the 52nd Annual Securities Regulation Institute in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Tuesday, January 28 – The Securities Enforcement Forum New York takes place in New York.  A number of senior SEC staff will be speaking.

·       Thursday, January 30, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Friday, January 31, 12:05 pm. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a panel entitled Market Structure Developments at the ABA Business Law Section’s Derivatives and Futures Law Committee Winter Meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Monday, January 27, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an event entitled Helping Military Consumers Protect Against Scams & Identify Theft.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events 

Trade Associations

·       January 26-29 – The American Bankers Association holds its annual Insurance Risk Management Forum in San Diego, California.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, January 27, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “The present and future of fast payment systems.”

·       Monday, January 27, 3:30 p.m. – The Federalist Society holds a webinar entitled “Frozen Out: Debanking Practice and Policy in the New Administration.”

·       Wednesday, January 29 - The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual conference, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Transatlantic Perspectives on U.S.-China Geoeconomic Competition."

The Global Week Ahead

Will the Trump Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Canada Begin This Week?  Rubio Goes to Latin America; the Lunar New Year Celebration Begins in Asia, and A Big Week for Central Banks

January 26 - February 2, 2025

It will be a very busy week ahead, both politically and economically.  President Trump has threatened to put 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China unless there is progress on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking (he placed 25 percent tariffs and a travel ban on Colombia Sunday for refusing to take back deported Colombians).   The question now is, will there be some progress, or are the tariffs a fait acompli?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a series of meetings in Latin America, traveling to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  While Rubio is expected to focus on migration issues, he will also likely discuss the situation in Venezuela and trade and security issues.  It is Rubio’s first trip as Secretary of State, indicating that Latin America will be a significant focus of the new Trump Administration.

In Asia, we note Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is traveling to Beijing for two days of meetings.  This is the second high-level set of meetings between India and China in the last two months, all to improve tense relations between the two countries.   The meetings take place as most of the major markets in Asia get ready to celebrate the Lunar New Year and China celebrates its annual eight-day Spring Festival – which serves as a major consumer spending event in China and will be indicative of how strong the Chinese economy is as the country continues to struggle with its massive real estate crisis.

In Europe, EU Foreign Ministers meet this week to discuss how to move forward on renewing sanctions on Russia.  Hungary is trying to block the renewal of sanctions, causing significant tensions.  The ministers are also expected to discuss EU-US relations and how best to work with the new Trump Administration.

In the United States, three of President Trump’s arguably most controversial nominees will get their Senate confirmation hearings this week.  FBI Director-designate Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, and Health and Human Service Secretary nominee Robert Kennedy will each appear before the respective US Senate committees.

Turning the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah expires today.  What happens next is unclear.  The expiration comes as the fragile ceasefire with Hamas continues to hold and as Israeli and US hostages are slowly being released.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it’s a big week for central banks as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Brazil all meet to decide interest rates.

Beyond the central bank action and breaking down the week by region, the US will see Q4 GDP numbers, December PCE inflation print on Thursday, and Q4 employment cost index figures on Friday.   These come after the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report and durable goods orders come out on Tuesday.

In Europe, January CPI flash numbers are out Friday for Germany and France, and the Eurozone CPI’s following Monday. 

In Asia, markets are closed in most major markets for the Lunar New Year, and in Australia, markets are closed for the Australia Day holiday.  But China – celebrating an eight-day Spring Festival holiday – will release January PMIs, and Japan will release its CPI print, PMIs, and industrial production figures.   

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump announces 25 percent tariffs on Colombia for refusing to accept U.S. plans carrying deported Colombian nationals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday, commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

· In Berlin, Germany's Greens hold a party congress ahead of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire expires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Global

·       Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting and briefing on ICC Sudan, which will include the International Criminal Court report on Darfur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a new migrant caravan set to depart southern Mexico despite Trump immigration crackdown.

·       Venezuela's opposition leader Gonzalez Urrutia meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

·       Canada’s legislature returns to session in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ New Home Sales (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Building Permits Final (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri travels to Beijing for two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Minister Sun Weidong.  It is the second high-level meeting between India and China in the last two months, all in an effort to de-escalate tensions between the two countries.

·       Australia Day is observed.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosts Indonesian President Prabowo in Putrajaya, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)/ NBS General PMI (January)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (November)/ Leading Economic Index Final (November)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum holds an 80th anniversary commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz with a ceremony held in a special tent built over the gate to the former Auschwitz-Birkenau camp. Guests include King Charles.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Foreign Ministers will discuss the War in Ukraine and extend sanctions on Russia.  They will also discuss the state of EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East (focusing on Syria and Gaza), and the situation in Moldova and Georgia.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will exchange views on the proposed regulation on cross-border enforcement of the EU rules on unfair trading practices in the agricultural and food supply chain, as well as on the proposed regulation amending the common market organization as regards the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro in Lisbon, Portugal. He then travels to Madrid, Spain to meet with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Luc Frieden, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Annual Conference begins in Tromso, Norway.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there this year?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded Lámfalussy Lecture at the Lámfalussy Lectures Conference organized by the Hungarian Central Bank.  Later, she will give welcome remarkets at a commemorative event on the occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Greece Total Credit (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks. She then travels on to Bahrain for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana President Dramani Mahama visits Angola for bilateral talks.

·       The Africa Energy Summit begins in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine rail workers will launch a nationwide six-hour strike after negotiations with rail operator Ferrocarriles Argentinos broke down.

·       Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the 2025 Doomsday Clock time.  Last year, the clock was reset at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight it has been in its nearly 80 years of existence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (December)/ Redbook (January/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services/ Revenues Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the Spring Festival, a national holiday, begins and runs until February 4th.  The holiday will be watched by markets to gauge the strength of Chinese consumers’ willingness to spend despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       Singapore Imports/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The European Commission unveils a roadmap for restoring EU competitiveness.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the Polish presidency’s (Poland) priorities for the next six months.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Emil Horatiu Hurezeanu at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends and offers an exchange of views with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Governing Council event in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual panel discussion at the conference "T2, T1, T0: Go! The future of financial markets and their infrastructures: What’s ahead?" organized by Banque de France in Paris.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Rebecca Jackson gives a speech at UK Finance entitled “Prime Brokerage” in London.

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s ban on operations by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees goes into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will have his confirmation hearing in the US Senate.

·       Canada’s Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue to release final report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference.

· Former US Senator Robert Menendez is sentenced following his conviction for bribery and corruption charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference.

·       The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ Press Conference

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/24)/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline/ Heating Oil/ Refinery Crude Runs Stocks Change (January/24)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Lunar New Year, celebrated across many countries in South-East Asia. Financial markets are closed in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

·       Azerbaijan holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan publishes its Policy Meeting Minutes/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (December)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ CPI Q4/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q4

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The embezzlement trial of the former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov begins in Moscow.

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives a speech on economic growth in London.

·       German Economy Minister Robert Habeck presents the national 2025 economic report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy meeting begins in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q4

·       Euro Area Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Robert Kennedy, President Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, has his confirmation hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pension Committee.

·       Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard will have her confirmation hearing in the Senate.

·       FBI Director nominee Kash Patel will have his Senate confirmation hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate/ Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/25)/ GDP Sales Q4/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/29)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank Institute holds a two-day online conference entitled “From Crisis to Resilience, Shaping the Future of Banking in Asia and the Pacific.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/25)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       Australia RBA Bulletin/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4/ RBA Jones Speech/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January)

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting in Brussels of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council meets on interest rates.  A press conference follows the announcement.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the Treasury committee, answering questions on the latest Financial Stability Report.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (January)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)/ KOF Leading Indicators (January)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Sales (November)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially leave regional group Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS).  All three nations are leaving following coups in their respective countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate/ Budget Balance (December)

Friday, January 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the situation in Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a tour of Latin America.  He will travel to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  There is no official agenda, but illegal migration will likely be the top issue discussed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Fed Bowman Speech/ PCE Price Index (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Employment Cost - Benefits & Wages Q4/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/31)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (December)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mitsubishi Motors is expected to announce whether or not to join a planned merger with Nissan and Honda.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday celebrating when the Republic declared its independence from Australia in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/Applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Business Confidence Q4

·       Thailand Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Private Consumption & Investment (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/17)/ Deposit Growth (January/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)/ Infrastructure Output (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Unless extended by the EU, sanctions on Russia are due to expire today.

·       Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Serbia for the inter-governmental summit.

·       Today, on the 5th anniversary of the UK leaving the EU, the Brexit safety and security declarations for EU imports come into force.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Change Rate/ Persons Rate (January)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Current Account (November)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Greece Retail Sales (November)

·       Italy PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for France to remove all military forces from Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Democratic National Committee elects a new chair.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gives the annual budget speech to parliament for the financial year, which begins in April.  The budget is expected to significantly increase government spending on infrastructure projects and the agricultural sector

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Togo holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump may impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico (to be confirmed).

·       President Trump may impose 10 percent tariffs on China (to be confirmed).

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Why Trump Is Focused on the Panama Canal, America’s Data Center Hotspots, How Iran Lost Before It Lost, The Four Main Groups Opposing Xi Jinping, and Should We Believe the Economic Data?

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Americas

• Panama: From Zoned Out to Strategic Opportunity   Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Since his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has staked out strong positions on the importance of the Western Hemisphere to the United States’ national security interests. A secure, prosperous, and free Western Hemisphere underpins U.S. geopolitical and economic success. Panama is the most strategically significant geography in the Western Hemisphere. With 40 percent of U.S. container traffic passing through the Panama Canal, it rightfully drew President Trump’s attention. Trump has highlighted concerns about the status quo regarding the disposition of the canal, its operation, and People’s Republic of China (PRC)–owned ports dominating the approaches. This commentary will not relitigate the merits of the 1977 Carter-Torrijos treaty, sovereignty, or transit rates but rather highlight the strategic importance of Panama, legitimate concerns over Beijing-owned ports, and the need for sustained diplomatic engagement and U.S. private sector investment.

• Trump’s Panama Canal threat revives memories of 1989 US invasion  Financial Times

  With US President Donald Trump this week threatening to “take back” the Panama Canal, residents who survived the battles 35 years ago are angry that they are once again at the whim of their country’s main ally. “The invasion overthrew the military dictatorship of General Manuel Noriega, who was captured, flown to the US and jailed on drug trafficking charges. Panama has been a democracy and staunch US ally ever since.

• Will Trump Focus on the Western Hemisphere?    The Net Assessment Podcast

  The hosts get together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention?

• It’s Time for a U.S.-Greenland Free Association Agreement  Kaush Arha/Alexander Gray/Tom Dans  National Interest

  American security interests and Greenland’s economic aspirations necessitate an institutional partnership between the two. Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, is part of North America in terms of aspiration and geography. It is high time Greenland’s position in North American orbit was cemented. As the world’s largest island atop the North Atlantic, it is an indispensable U.S. ally in the most proximate theatre between the United States and its NATO allies and the Russia-China authoritarian advance. American investments and markets are essential catalysts to turbocharge Greenland’s economic growth and prosperity and ensure its continued alignment with NATO as its place within the Kingdom of Denmark evolves in the years ahead.  It is time for a US-Greenland Free Association.

• America’s data center job hot spots   Axios

  President Trump has announced his support for Stargate, a massive $500 billion AI infrastructure project which, when you break it down, it all about building more data centers.  But where are the data center job hotspots in America?  Axios breaks it all down.

Middle East

• How Iran Lost Before It Lost: The Roll Back of Its Gray Zone Strategy  War on the Rocks

  “Today, you can get in a car in Tehran and get out in the Dahia, Beirut.” Five years and two months after Gen. Qasem Soleimani made this statement, the Islamic Republic of Iran is in retreat. Iran’s air and ground lines of supply to Lebanon now go through Sunni-dominated Syria, where the Assad regime recently crumbled. Even if Iran could more easily get to Lebanon, Hizballah is the weakest it has been in over a generation, having been relentlessly battered by Israel. In the words of one high-ranking commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps: “We lost, we badly lost.”  Iran’s ability to deter and wage war in recent decades was largely through gray zone methods. And the structures, resources, and allies that allowed it to do this are now in tatters. But the erosion of Iran’s gray zone strategy was already happening when Assad was still in power and Hizballah loomed over Israel as a fearsome threat. Iran’s economic dysfunction and political disarray prevented it from building and sustaining resilience. This analysis highlights how Iran’s economic malfeasance, fueled by internal divisions among government stakeholders, has undermined its geopolitical ambitions and prevented it from converting regional influence into sustainable economic leverage, marking a potential turning point in its regional strategies.

  Indo-Pacific

• 2025 could be the tipping point for India’s economic aspirations  OMFIF

  Amid the multiple global shifts taking place today, India stands at a critical juncture. The world’s most populous democracy faces a turbulent landscape of geopolitical rivalries, technological shifts and the urgency of climate action. The question remains: will global economic forces propel India toward leadership, or will they impede its ascent?

• The Four Main Groups Challenging Xi Jinping   The Jamestown Foundation

  Chinese President Xi Jinping faces challenges to his authority from four main groups: 1) retired party elders such as Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao; 2) princelings, especially those based overseas; 3) military leaders, such as Zhang Youxia; and 4) parts of the middle and entrepreneurial classes who are voicing their discontent.  Xi is unlikely to be overthrown or face a coup, but his ability to force through his agenda may be reduced.  Indicators that Xi is embattled include his absence from chairing two recent high-level meetings, references to “collective leadership” the PLA Daily newspaper, and an adjustment to PRC diplomacy to a more conciliatory approach, especially toward the United States.  This apparent reduction in power could be a result of the country’s bleak economic situation, which Xi’s policies from last year have not resolved.

• China's Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic  Rand Corporation

  How might China's scientific, information, and commercial activities in the Arctic contribute to the country's broader security goals by enabling the collection of intelligence, allowing access to critical infrastructure, or providing other types of military advantages? China's activities in the Arctic have increased, and China's overall approach to strategic competition, which fuses the public with the private and the civilian sphere with the military, has heightened U.S. concerns that China might be on its way to becoming a security and military actor in the Arctic and that Russia is enabling this pathway. In this report, the authors present an analysis of China's economic, scientific, and information activities in the Arctic and call special attention to the intelligence collection and military risks that they might present, including the threat signals for these risks. The authors explore five categories of activities: natural resource exploitation, knowledge development, access to infrastructure, data transmission, and public diplomacy.

• From Fast Lane to Gridlock: Have Chinese Car Exports Peaked?   Rhodium Group

  China’s auto industry has been a success story in recent years, with car exports emerging as a bright spot in an otherwise slowing economy. Between 2021 and 2024, the number of cars shipped from China surged by 300%, propelling China past Japan to become the world’s largest car exporter by units. However, this rapid growth now faces significant challenges. Trade barriers and outright bans in major markets like the US threaten to stall export momentum. Slumping export growth will put pressure on Chinese automakers, potentially leading to industry consolidation. But incumbent carmakers shouldn’t celebrate too much—even with slower export growth, Chinese carmakers are transforming into formidable global competitors in the auto market.

Geoeconomics

• How German Industry Can Survive the Second China Shock   Sander Tordoir/Brad Setser  Centre for European Reform

  Industrial production in the EU’s largest economy has been declining for over five years, a source of profound angst in a country where manufacturing contributes around 5.5 million jobs and 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Germany is starting to realize that China’s new automotive, clean technology and civil aviation industrial base directly competes with Germany’s manufacturing foundation. China’s macroeconomic imbalances now directly infringe on German industrial interests. Germany, with its low debt levels and endangered industrial base, has both the policy space to act and the most to lose if it does not. But it cannot act alone against the new Exportweltmeister. As Henry Kissinger once quipped, Germany is “too big for Europe and too small for the world.”

• Use of Artificial Intelligence and Productivity: Evidence from Firm and Worker Surveys   RIETI Discussion Paper Series

  Abstract: With the rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI), its effects on economic growth and the labor market have attracted the attention of researchers. However, the lack of statistical data on the use of AI has restricted empirical research. Based on original surveys, this study provides an overview of the use of AI and other automation technologies in Japan, the characteristics of firms and workers who use AI, and their views on the impact of AI. According to the results, first, the number of firms using AI is increasing rapidly and firms with a larger share of highly educated workers have a greater tendency to use AI. Robot-using firms are also increasing, but the relationship between their use and workers’ education is weakly negative, suggesting that the impact on the labor market is different for each technology. Second, AI-using firms have higher productivity, wages, and medium-term growth expectations. Third, AI-using firms expect that while it will increase productivity and wages, it may decrease their employment. Fourth, at the worker level, more-educated workers are more likely to use AI, suggesting that AI and education are complementary. Currently, AI may favor high-skill workers in the labor market. Fifth, workers who use AI evaluate their work productivity to have increased by approximately 20% on average, suggesting that AI could potentially have a fairly large productivity enhancing effect.

• Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans “Lyin” Eyes?  The Answer is Yes  Scott Winship/American Enterprise Institute Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility

  Many Americans are convinced the economy is ailing and that life is financially tougher today than a decade—or a generation—ago. Social media posts wax nostalgic for a long-lost era when all single breadwinners allegedly could afford a home and two cars for a family of four. Everyone seemingly knows someone who did everything they were supposed to do but is now stuck with six figures of student loan debt and a string of gig economy jobs. So, are Americans “right to believe their lyin’ eyes,” as Cass claimed in a recent op-ed titled, “Three Cheers for Economic Pessimism”? This formulation begs the question of whether American beliefs about the economy conflict with objective measures. Cass and the declensionists are no more reliable guides to those beliefs than accurate interpreters of economic data. What Americans tell surveyors is consistent with the objective data, for the most part. There has been no long-term decline in economic conditions.

• The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding  Olivier Coibion/Yuriy Gorodnichieknko, Michael Weber

  Abstract: In a recent survey, we asked Americans to tell us about what they thought would happen under Trump’s tariff policies and how this might affect their decisions. The results point toward widespread anticipation of tariffs being imposed on our trading partners, especially China, with significant expected passthrough into the prices of both imported and domestically produced goods and a general acknowledgment that American consumers will bear an important share of the cost of tariffs. In response to higher future tariffs, many Americans, and particularly Democrats, report that they would increase their purchases of foreign goods in anticipation of the upcoming tariffs and higher prices, while simultaneously trying to save more in the face of higher uncertainty about future policies. Managers’ report that their firms would become more likely to raise prices, change their mix of products and seek out alternative suppliers as the rise in tariffs approaches.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The New Trump Presidency Begins, A Week Without (for the most part) Any Regulatory Heads, Senate Banking Committee Agenda Unveiled, and A New Joint Subcommittee on Crypto

It is a historic day today as President Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th president at Noon.  An extraordinary political comeback will be capped, and with it will come a Republican House and Senate with an aggressive agenda on financial regulatory issues, taxes, and trade.

We would note, as many of you already have figured out, that for the most part, all the major financial regulatory heads have stepped down or are about to step down in advance of President Trump being sworn into office: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, OCC Acting Head Michael Hsu, and CFTC Chair Rostin Benham.  By our count, the only financial regulatory trying to stick around is Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra (and we do not think that will last long once President Trump takes office – we will see).

So, it will be a very quiet week regulatory-wise this coming week.  As a matter of fact, regulatory quiet will last for a number of weeks (even months) ahead as President-elect Trump has yet to nominate any regulators aside from SEC Chair-designate Paul Atkins.  We are surprised as Trump was moving faster than any newly elected president in putting forth nominations for cabinet and subcabinet officials.  For reasons we are not entirely clear on, the nomination machine has slowed considerably in recent weeks – and knowing how slowly the Senate can and likely will move on confirmations of nominations, it could be months before we see new regulatory heads in place. 

Meanwhile, the new Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), released his Priorities for the 119th Congress.  You can read them HERE.  Additionally, Scott is apparently in talks with House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) about forming some sort of joint working subcommittee on crypto.  We would think that could be an exciting accelerant to setting up at least a basic regulatory framework for crypto, helping boost the sector among investors.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, January 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds its 119th congressional organizational meeting.

·       Wednesday, January 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on "Matters Within the Committee's Tax Jurisdiction."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.  And there are no Governor speeches scheduled as the Fed is in its regular “blackout period” in advance of the January 29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, January 20, 6:05 p.m. Switzerland) – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat with the CEO of the Global Blockchain Business Council (GBBC), Sandra Ro, at GBBC Blockchain Central 2025 in Davos, Switzerland on innovation, artificial intelligence, and emerging developments in financial markets.  

·       Tuesday, January 21, 11:35 a.m. Switzerland) – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will provide remarks virtually at the Global Blockchain Business Council’s 8th Annual Blockchain Central Davos 2025.

·       Friday, January 24, 12:15 p.m. Central Time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address followed by a Q&A moderated by Professor William Birdthistle at the University of Chicago Law School. The conversation will explore the issues confronting federal financial regulators at this moment of transition from one presidential administration to another, including artificial intelligence, advances in technology and other notable developments in financial markets.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, January 21, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA will hold a virtual “State of the Industry” briefing for members.

·       Friday, January 24, 12:30 p.m. – The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will hold a policy forum on Friday, January 24, in Washington, DC, entitled "A Nation of Homeowners: How Tax Reform Can Boost the American Dream" in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Global Week Ahead

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad,  and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time.  The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in.  At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.  

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group.  This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up. 

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.  The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking.  We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually).  You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia.  The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions.  Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).  He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24.   More than 2,500 people are expected to attend.   You can see the full agenda HERE.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.  Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

·       It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.  Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

·       In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them.  This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

·       Greece Current Account (November)

·       Italy Construction Output (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

·       Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio.  The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

·       USA Redbook (January/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

·       Slovenia PPI (December)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

·       Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks.   The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

·       Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

·       Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Canada,  today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (November)

·       France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

·       Chile PPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

·       Paraguay PPI (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

·       Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session.  Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Buying Greenland and Growing Arctic Security Risks, US Industrial Policy Toward Semiconductors Is Winning, and Demographic Decline in the US and Around the World

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Buying Greenland & Increasing Arctic Security Risk

• Everything you need to know about Trump’s Greenland gambit Atlantic Council

  President-elect Trump is plotting an Arctic acquisition. As he prepares to take office on January 20, President-elect Donald Trump is already stirring up a transatlantic tempest with his overtures to acquire Greenland. Denmark has repeatedly said its strategically located island territory is not for sale, but Trump on Tuesday continued to push the issue—including threatening tariffs on Denmark. The icy dispute raises several burning questions. Atlantic Council experts have the answers.
  

• Why Donald Trump wants Greenland: The Arctic Island has long been vital to US Security and its importance is only increasing Financial Times

  When Trump first expressed interest in buying Greenland in 2019, he framed it as like “a large real estate deal” and emphasized the economic aspects of prising it away from Denmark. This time, his focus has changed. “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” he said on Tuesday, while mentioning the need to deter Russian and Chinese ships.

• China-Russia Relations in the Arctic: What the Northern Limits of Their Partnership? Rand Corporation

  To what extent might China and Russia form partnerships in the Arctic region, and what factors might limit the development of their relationship? Although the United States has had Russia as a maritime neighbor in the Arctic since 1867, the growing presence of China in the region as a Russian partner has led to a rare situation in which two competitive — and potentially hostile — states are in very close proximity to North America. In this paper, the authors evaluate Russia's and China's activities in the Arctic and these activities' implications for nations with Arctic interests. The authors consider China's decades-long interest in the Arctic, its growing and possible future economic activities, and the existing and proposed collaborations that Beijing has sought with Arctic countries to realize its goals.
  

• Arctic Shipping Sets New Records in 2024: 50 Percent Cargo Transit Increase over 2023 Carrying More than 40 Million Tons gCaptain.com

  Even in the face of widening Western sanctions, Russia managed to increase Arctic transit cargo by almost 50 percent over 2023. Its main Arctic shipping lane, the Northern Sea Route, recorded 97 transits carrying close to 3m tons of cargo; both figures surpassing previous highs. Total cargo volume along the route, including transits and traffic originating in Russia, stands at around 40m tons in 2024. Trade between Russia and China continues to dominate cargo flows, accounting for 2.9m tons or 95% of all transit traffic. Officials of the two countries met this week to discuss plans to further boost Arctic shipping.

• ‘Ice Sheet Conservation’ and International Discord: Governing (potential) Glacial Geoengineering in Antarctica International Affairs/Chatham House

  There is a growing chance of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, one of the planetary climate tipping points at greatest risk of being crossed. Such a collapse would subject the world to an increase of several meters in average global sea-level rise over just a few centuries. In this context, there is an academic debate about the potential of supporting glacial stability through artificial infrastructures such as an undersea ‘curtain’. However, this ‘ice sheet conservation’ would come with significant yet unforeseeable technical and environmental risks. Moreover, in this debate, governance risks have been either neglected or understated. We argue that the proposed infrastructures could negatively implicate the ‘peaceful purposes only’ obligation enshrined in the Antarctic Treaty. By affecting contentious areas of Antarctic geopolitics, such as authority, sovereignty and security, there is a significant risk that the project would make the Antarctic ‘the scene or object of international discord’.

Industrial Policy & the Race for Semiconductor Dominance

• Industrial Policy through the CHIPS and Science Act: A Preliminary ReportPeterson Institute for International Economics

  The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act appears likely to sharply boost the production of advanced semiconductors in the US, reducing the risk of future shortages but leaving America reliant on imported chips. The jobs created will come at notable costs. Some of the key takeaways of the report include: An estimated 93,000 temporary construction jobs and 43,000 permanent jobs will be created, at an average subsidy cost of $185,000 per job, per year—about twice the average annual salary of US semiconductor employees. Lawmakers deliberating the act did not publicly consider alternative ways of spending $200 billion to ensure adequate chip supplies. Additional subsidies will probably be needed to achieve the goal of producing 20 percent of global leading-edge logic chips in the US by 2030.

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• America’s bet on industrial policy starts to pay off for semiconductors The Economist (January 9, 2025)

  In the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency, most parts of his administration are winding down. Not so the top brass in the Department of Commerce: on an almost daily basis, they are signing giant funding contracts with chipmakers, racing to dole out cash before Donald Trump enters the White House. When all is said and done, they will have awarded nearly $40bn to semiconductor makers in little more than a year—arguably the biggest single bet on industrial policy by the government in decades, and one that could end up as Mr. Biden’s most lasting economic legacy. The rush to disburse cash has invited questions about whether the funding commitments—the cornerstone of the chips and Science Act, passed in 2022—are at risk under Mr. Trump. On the campaign trail, he called chips a “bad” deal, saying the government could have just slapped tariffs on imported semiconductors. At the end of the day, Trump is unlikely to reverse the chip subsidies - but will he reinforce them?

• Rationales for Industrial Policy in the Semiconductor IndustryIntereconomics

  In recent years, private and public investments in the semiconductor industry have surged worldwide. In the European Union alone, a government subsidy package of €43 billion is under negotiation, while in the United States and East Asia, state support amounts to multiples of that figure. Economists view this subsidy race critically, as it could potentially lead to market distortions and inefficient allocations. In Germany, the substantial subsidies for new factories by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) and Intel are also the subjects of heated debate. Despite these concerns and the traditional reservations among economists against industrial policy in general, there are compelling reasons for pursuing such an industrial policy approach, particularly in the European semiconductor industry—provided the economic and political contexts are understood and the policy is well executed.

The Global Demographic Decline

• The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 Congressional Budget Office

  In CBO’s projections, the rate of population growth generally slows over the next 30 years, from an average of 0.4 percent a year between 2025 and 2035 to an average of 0.1 percent a year between 2036 and 2055. Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.

• Comparing Life Expectancies Across the Pacific Rim Visual Capitalist/Hindrich Foundation

  Trade and economic growth have boosted life expectancy by improving access to healthcare and nutrition. Efficient resource allocation through trade improves living standards, and economic growth from trade raises income and tax revenues, enabling more government investment in public health and social programs. Based on the findings of the 2024 Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index, Visual Capitalist illustrates how major trading economies like Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore enjoy higher living standards and longer lives.
  

• Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality McKinsey Global Institute

  Falling fertility rates are propelling major economies toward population collapse in this century. Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent, based on UN projections. Consumers and workers will be older and increasingly in the developing world. Seniors will account for one-quarter of global consumption by 2050, double their share in 1997. Developing countries will provide a growing share of global labor supply and of consumption, making their productivity and prosperity vital for global growth.The current calculus of economies cannot support existing income and retirement norms—something must give. In first wave countries across advanced economies and China, GDP per capita growth could slow by 0.4 percent annually on average from 2023 to 2050, and up to 0.8 percent in some countries, unless productivity growth increases by two to four times or people work one to five hours more per week. Retirement systems might need to channel as much as 50 percent of labor income to fund a 1.5-time increase in the gap between the aggregate consumption and income of seniors. Later wave countries, take note.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

Cabinet Nominees Confirmation Hearings All Week, Will Next Week Be the Week Trump Nominates All the Regulators?  And the FDIC Chair and CFTC Chairs Sing Their Swan Songs

Washington is bracing for big changes this week before President-elect Trump is sworn into office next Monday.  Congress gets busy with committee organizational meetings this week as the US Senate holds confirmation hearings for most of Trump’s nominees (the full hearing schedule is below).  We expect the Senate to move quickly on a number of the nominations, with the strong likelihood that Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent and Secretary of State-nominee Marco Rubio will be confirmed and ready to be sworn in on Inauguration Day.

Subcommittee assignments were announced this past week in both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee.  Of note is that the Senate Banking Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), is creating a new Digital Assets Subcommittee, and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) is going to chair it.  Recall that Lummis’ home state of Wyoming has arguably been the leading state pushing for crypto for consumer payments.

Over on the House side, Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) is apparently considering creating a new working group on monetary policy, which would appear to be something of a “shadow” oversight group looking at Federal Reserve Board monetary policy – this will be one to watch closely.

Meanwhile, this being the final week of the Biden Administration, most regulators are cleaning out their offices and packing up.  FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will be at the Brookings Institution, giving his thoughts and reflections on his long tenure at the agency and the three financial crises he had dealt with.  Let’s see if and how he addresses the ultimate crisis that will likely define his two-decade tenure at the agency:  The allowance of a widespread culture of sexual harassment and other misconduct at the agency under his leadership.  Gruenberg announced seven months ago he would resign because of the scandal, but not until a replacement was confirmed.  He changed his mind after Trump was elected, and now Vice Chair Travis Hill will step in as acting chair.  While Hill has not been nominated for the chair, he is giving a speech this week, during which he will likely lay out an interim agenda.

Gruenberg is not the only one giving a final goodbye talk this week: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 Conference in Switzerland.  The conference – for institutional investors, family offices, and large funds – should be quite interesting, nicely nestled in the spectacular snow-covered Alps.

Finally, we are picking up chatter from the Trump Transition team that President-elect Trump may announce his picks for the top regulatory spots.  So far, he has only named Paul Atkins for SEC Chair.  More on that as we learn it.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Thursday, January 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Eric Scott Turner to be Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, January 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.  They will then hold a hearing entitled “The Need to Make Permanent the Trump Tax Cuts for Working Families.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• Thursday, January 16, 8:30 a.m. – Acting Housing and Urban Development Department Secretary Adrianne Todman delivers remarks at the National League of Cities Summit which is entitled “The Moment for Housing is Now.”

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, January 16, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Wednesday, January 15, 1:30 p.m. (CET/Switzerland) – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 Conference.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Tuesday, January 14, 2:00 p.m. – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak at the Brookings Institution at an event entitled “FDIC Chairman Gruenberg on 3 financial crises and lessons for the future.”

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• Thursday, January 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the National Credit Union Administration will hold a meeting.  The agenda includes a review of the NCUA’s 2025 Annual Performance Plan.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Wednesday, January 16, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a Closed Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Tuesday, January 14, 11:00 a.m. – The Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center holds a virtual discussion on "Recapitalizing the GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) through Administrative Action: Economics and Budgetary Implications."

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Tuesday, January 14, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "3 Financial Crises and Lessons for the Future,"  FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak.

• Wednesday, January 15, Noon – The Exchequer Club of Washington hosts Senate Banking Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) to speak.

• Thursday, January 16, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Should We Care About Who Owns Audit Firms?"  This event was rescheduled from January 9th.

• Thursday, January 16, 12:00 p.m. – The National Economists Club holds a luncheon discussion on "Grappling With the Nation's Fiscal Challenges: The 2025 Outlook," focusing on "the deficit, debt limit, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act."

******  

Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule

Tuesday, January 14th

• Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense

• Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior

• Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Wednesday, January 15th

• Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture

• Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy

• Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General

• Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (this could be moved to Thursday, 1/16)

• Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

• Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

• Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary

• Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director

Thursday, January 16th

• Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury

• Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations 

Monday, January 27th

• DATE TO BE CONFIRMED: Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services

The Global Week Ahead

The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off

The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week.  This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday.  The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week.  The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.

We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).

Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement.  The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries. 

While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons.  The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018.  It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region. 

Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29.  Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data.  All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US. 

Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico.  Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting.  The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.

Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019.  Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

·       Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Monday, January 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.

·       In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues.  From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.

·       Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.

·       The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. 

·       In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday. 

·       In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society. 

·       In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants.  Today  Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Current Account (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique swears in its new parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). 

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual  "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines.  The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.

·       South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December. 

·       The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.

·       Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea.  This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

·       French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament.  Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.

·       Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions.  In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director

·       NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.

·       Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels.  The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”

·       EU Industrial Production (November)

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)

·       Serbia Building Permits (November)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.

·       The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

·       Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan PPI (December)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows.  Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, January 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York.  The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.”  They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)

·       USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi.  India is the third largest auto market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Belarus GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (December)

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Trump’s Major Focus on Latin America, Trudeau Resigns – Now What?,  Agriculture Is A Major Factor For Ukraine Peace, Africa Needs A Payments Union, and The Evolution of Remote Working

January 10 - 12, 2025

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

The Americas 

• This Administration is Shaping Up to Be Latin America-First    Ryan Berg/Foreign Policy

  One of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s most lasting slogans of governance is that “personnel is policy.” Judged using Reagan’s mantra, it appears as though the incoming Trump team could be rightly described as the United States’ first Latin America-focused administration in at least a century—and perhaps ever.
  

• Eric Farnsworth on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Resignation  Americas Society/Council of the Americas

  On January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be resigning from his role after nearly a decade in leadership. The decision was announced ahead of planned October elections for this year and days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to annex Canada and place 25 percent tariffs on its exports, takes office. Trudeau’s resignation triggered the shutdown of Canada’s Parliament until March 24.  “Canadian politics will be fairly chaotic over this year, 2025,” explained Eric Farnsworth, vice president of AS/COA and head of the Washington office. “You could have as many as three prime ministers in the country in a period of nine or 10 months. You have a scenario where Canada itself lacks the firepower to really push back against the United States.” Farnsworth discusses what to expect from Trudeau’s resignation, the state of the opposition, and Canada’s place in the Western Hemisphere.
  

• How COVID Changed Latin America   Oliver Kaplan, Michale Albertus, Diana Senior-Angula, and Gustavo Flores-Macías/Journal of Democracy

  Abstract: Covid-19 was a pressure test for democracy in Latin America. The pandemic hit the region harder than any other in the world, particularly in terms of covid death rates and rising poverty. The pandemic also created opportunities to consolidate and abuse power, resulting in selective human rights repression, power grabs, militarization, and corruption. However, the effects were not uniformly negative. The pandemic also prompted renewed economic crisis management, social mobilization, and local checks to central power. Drawing on the experiences of countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, this essay illustrates that although the pandemic strained democratic politics, good pandemic management may have stemmed democratic decay. New forms of mobilization and policy implementation emerged, as well as new openings for political challengers that will shape the coming decade of governance in the region.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• Farming Frontlines: How Food and Agriculture Will Impact Negotiations in Ukraine  Center for Strategic and International Studies Futures Lab Audio Brief

  Russia’s recent attacks on Greater Odesa port infrastructure and foreign-flagged grain-carrying vessels in the Black Sea marked the most intense attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure in over a year. Four of the ships hit in October were carrying agricultural commodities, including vegetable oil for the UN World Food Programme in Gaza, as well as corn and grain shipments for Egypt, Italy, and Southern Africa, according to statements by the Ukrainian and UK governments. As widely reported by CSIS and others, Ukraine’s agriculture sector has been a major front in Russia’s war in Ukraine since February 2022. With the September and October 2024 attacks, Russia continues its system-wide attacks on Ukraine’s agriculture infrastructure, negatively affecting Ukraine’s agricultural production and exports and thereby undercutting a major source of Ukraine’s export revenue.
  

• How Suicide Drones Transformed the Front Lines in Ukraine   New York Times Magazine

  Outnumbered and desperate, the nation began hacking cheap consumer drones with explosives — bringing a brutal new form of violence to 21st-century warfare.

China

• Charting China’s Export Controls: Predicting Impacts on Critical U.S. Supply Chains  The National Bureau of Asian Research

  The PRC’s export control regime has grown and formalized in recent years in response to an increasingly active and complex landscape of U.S. and allied export controls. The PRC’s system of export controls has historically been piecemeal, and its administration poorly understood. Recent formalization of the system beginning in 2020 and escalating in 2023 is consistent with the PRC’s increased exercise of lawfare and demonstrates greater regulatory capabilities. PRC authorities are able to weaponize supply chains by targeting specific critical minerals under new export controls. 

• What Gold’s Crazy Run Says About China  Bloomberg YouTube Channel

  Gold prices have been on a rampage, hitting record after record. While driven in part by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and the prospect of lower US interest rates, unrelenting demand from China has also played a big part.
  

• Measuring China’s Manufacturing Might  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  China’s manufacturing sector has been pivotal to the country’s rapid economic rise. Yet China’s industrial might has become a source of friction as the United States, Europe, and other economies seek to defend and nurture their own manufacturing sectors. In the face of mounting geopolitical tensions, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is doubling down with repeated calls for China to become a “manufacturing power” (制造强国) and lead the world in producing high-value, high-technology goods. This ChinaPower tracker examines these dynamics through 10 charts, visualizing the rise of China’s manufacturing sector and Beijing’s efforts to cement its industrial superpower status for future decades.
  

• China – North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang  China Power Podcast

  In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. 

Geoeconomics and Demographics

• The Evolution of Remote Work Across Industries: From Potential to Practice   Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  As the St. Louis Fed has reported before, work from home (WFH) rose rapidly in the U.S. following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although WFH rates are down from their pandemic peak, they have stabilized well above prepandemic levels. For example, the share of those working from home all workdays rose from 7% just before the pandemic to 32% in May 2020 and has remained at about 12% since 2022. This raises the questions: Why are some workers continuing to work from home when they did not before the pandemic? And why have others resumed commuting even though they worked from home during the pandemic? In this blog post, we focus on one key factor in understanding WFH variation across workers: the industry in which they are employed.  Industries matter because job tasks vary widely across them, and some tasks are much easier to perform remotely than others. This variation in WFH feasibility, or potential, plays a crucial role in determining how much industries were able to pivot to remote work both during and after the height of the pandemic.

•   World Depopulation: Prospects and Implications   Nicholas Eberstadt/AEI Foreign & Defense Working Paper

  Abstract: Though few yet see it coming, a momentous turning point for humanity is looming immediately ahead. We are about to enter a new age of human history. Call it the epoch of the “population implosion”. Because it is arriving quietly, without fanfare—almost on tiptoes—it is catching us by surprise. The world population explosion is almost over. With birth rates plummeting and sub-replacement fertility taking hold around the world, we are heading into an era of pervasive and indefinite de-population: starting already—and not just with countries, but entire geographic regions—eventually encompassing the planet as a whole. There is no avoiding the great depopulations that lie ahead—they are already “baked into the cake”, fused into the foundations of societies all around the world by birth choices today’s parents have already made. The only question is how soon and how fast these coming depopulations transform life as we know it.

• Are Big Cities Important for Economic Growth?   Mathew Turner & David N. Weil/NBER

  Abstract: Cities are often described as engines of economic growth. We assess this statement quantitatively. We focus on two mechanisms: a static agglomeration effect that makes production in bigger cities more efficient, and a dynamic effect whereby urban scale impacts the productivity of invention, which in turn determines the speed of technological progress for the country as a whole. Using estimates of these effects from the literature and MSA-level patent and population data since 1900, we ask how much lower US output would be in 2010 if city size had been limited to one million or one hundred thousand starting in 1900. These effects are small. If city sizes had been limited to one million people since 1900, output in 2010 would have been only 8% lower than its observed value.

Africa

• The Case for an African Payments Union:  Lessons from the European Experience  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The realities of the global financial system make it nigh impossible for African governments to deliver employment and growth amid social and political instability and when financing is needed to transition away from fossil fuels.