Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 9/24/24 Francis Kelly 9/24/24

Book Review:

A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men: The Forgotten British Special Operations Soldiers of World War II

By Shannon Monaghan, Viking Press, 2024 (400 pages)

Fortunately, there are many riveting books about the daring raids of the British Special Air Service (SAS) “Desert Rats” during World War II. Indeed, there is a wonderful show about them on BBC, “Rogue Heroes.” Their insanely heroic attacks on German Field Marshall Erwin Rommel’s Afrika Corps hundreds of miles behind enemy lines are almost beyond belief in their audacity and impact on the war.

But they were not the only ones. Less well known, until now, are four men who brought the fight to the Nazis in Albania, tying down hundreds of thousands of German troops from being dispatched to either the Western or Eastern Front to fight allied forces. Moreover, the end of World War II was not the end of their war against totalitarianism, as they marched off to Vietnam, Oman, Yemen, and elsewhere to fight “the good fight.” Their wars and lives are dazzlingly reported in “A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men” by Shannon Monaghan.

Billy McLean, David Smiley, Peter Kemp, and Julian Amery were boundless in their efforts to defeat the Nazis but also dealt with rising communist threats in Albania and Yugoslavia. Of particular challenge to them was trying to get the ruthless communist partisan leader (and future dictator of Albania) Enver Hoxha actually to fight the Nazis (he often claimed his partisans fought in this or that battle, but the truth is a combination of cowardice on Hoxha’s part and determination to save as much ammunition and men for later fights with non-marxist partisans kept them out of the battle). Moreover, as the four British heroes were increasingly successful on the battlefield, they suddenly discovered someone was selling them out to the Germans: Hoxha was tipping off the Germans, hoping the Brits would be killed off and he could step in as the leader.

However, there was another traitor to the cause of fighting the Nazis in Albania, and, of all people, he was back in Special Operation Executive (SOE) helping to oversee the entire operation: James Klugmann, the senior British Army officer overseeing all activities in Yugoslavia. Klugmann was a traitor, a Soviet agent who had been recruited at Cambridge in 1936 and was a friend and contemporary of the other infamous Cambridge spies, better known as the Cambridge Five: Kim Philby, Donald MacLean, Guy Burgess, and Anthony Blunt. Klugmann was taking his orders from the NKVD and Stalin, and his mission was to ensure Communist partisan Josef Broz Tito (and his toadie in Albania, Hoxha) were put in the best light while the Yugoslav royalists were falsely accused of cowardice and ineptitude. Klugmann’s fraudulent memos and analysis impacted the future of both Yugoslavia and Albania, as Churchill and other leaders read what he reported. But on the ground, he tried to get the four Brits killed numerous times. Klugmann was a committed Stalinist but somehow constantly escaped being nailed as a spy despite multiple investigations.

Eventually, the Fantastic Four were pulled from Albania despite their successes (and numerous wounds and near captures). They would all end up going to India to prepare to fight the Japanese, taking part in dangerous reconnaissance missions and helping to liberate Allied POWs. Billy MacLean and Julian Amery went on to serve in the British Parliament - but when danger called, they both went back to helping fight authoritarianism - including returning to Albania to serve in a joint British-US covert effort to throw Hoxha out of power.

Peter Berg was a witness to the rise of the Vietnamese Communist movement - the Viet Minh who were hunting French colonials down and murdering them, although defeated Japanese forces had not even left Vietnam yet.

This is a rollicking, fun read—and it is also an important one in that we cannot forget the efforts and successes of brave men like McLean, Kemp, Smiley, and Amery. Our world needs men like these again to step up and fight against the forces of darkness that are growing around the world.

Francis Kelly 9/22/24 Francis Kelly 9/22/24

The Global Week Ahead

World Leaders Gather at UN General Assembly Week in New York, Japan Selects a New Prime Minister, Bracing for Israeli-Hezbollah Escalation, and Waiting For A Flood of Fed Governor Speeches

September 22 - 29, 2024

This coming week is going to be an exceptionally busy one on the geopolitical front. The United Nations 79th General Assembly is this week, and leaders from around the world are gathering to give speeches before the Assembly and hold side meetings with other leaders. Of note, we will be watching closely Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian's speech for not only what he says about the current escalation of fighting between Israel's and Iran's proxy militia, Hezbollah. But also, press reports suggest Pezeshkian may suggest an avenue to restarting stalled talks on limiting Iran's nuclear program.

As we write this update, there has been a significant escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah following Israel’s stunning exploding pager operation last week, killing or wounding more than 3,000 Hezbollah operatives. The question now is does this move into a full-out war (which seems most likely) or is there some remote chance of a diplomatic solution.

Also of note this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak to the Assembly and then travel to Washington to meet with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and House and Senate leadership about additional military assistance.

As all this is happening, Japan's Liberal Democracy Party will vote on a new leader—who will then become the new Prime Minister of Japan—as incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election and is standing down in the wake of low approval polls and a controversy over a slush fund scandal.

Turning to US politics, The House and Senate are expected to vote this week on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government running through December 20th. The bill will likely face widespread House Republican opposition but still pass with just enough Republicans voting in favor, along with almost the entire House Democratic Caucus. As this is going on, the House Foreign Affairs Committee is going to hold a hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to review the chaotic withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan. The Committee issued a scathing report recently, strongly criticizing how the withdrawal was conducted.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, we are struck by the large number of speeches Federal Reserve Board Governors are giving: ten, of which seven are being given on Thursday. That is a lot for markets to digest, along with a busy US economic report calendar that includes US PCE readings, flash US CPI numbers, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and durable goods orders.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank, France, Germany, and Italy release their consumer expectation surveys. In Asia, Japan releases the Tokyo CPI report and flash PMIs. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide interest rates.

Here is what else we are tracking in this hectic week ahead:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

· The opening segment of the Summit of the Future will take place at the General Assembly Hall. The UN Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks, as well as the President of the 79th Session of the General Assembly, Philemon Yang. The Summit of the Future will continue until September 23.

· The UN’s the COP29 Presidency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) are co-organizing a High-Level Roundtable on Climate, Peace and Human Mobility.

· Today is the Fall Equinox.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the Indian diaspora at the "Modi & US Progress Together" event at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island, New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today in South Sudan is the deadline for the dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

· Today is Mali Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Global

· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) holds board meetings in Vienna, Austria. They are expected to be given an update on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the situation around security and safeguards around Ukraine’s nuclear power facility, which has been the center of heavy fighting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden hosts UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for talks on Gaza and Sudan. This is the first state visit by a sitting UAE President. He will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris during his visit along with a large group of US businessmen.

· The Argentine Congress is expected to begin debating the 2025 fiscal budget. President Javier Milei has pledged to substantially reduce the federal deficit via austerity measures in the package.

· The Clinton Foundation holds its annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Leadership Exchange 2024.

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)/ S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

· Paraguay PPI (August)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will hold a leadership election. Whomever wins is the likely next Prime Minister.

· South Korea will host the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul.

· Filipino unionized transport workers will stage a nationwide work stoppage through September 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japanese financial markets are closed to celebrate the Autum Equinox Day.

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Philippines Business & Consumer Confidence Q3

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italy will host the second Libya Energy and Economy Summit in Rome.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers are going to discuss the upcoming EU-UK annual consultation on fishing opportunities for 2025 as well as the EU-Norway and coastal states annual consultations for the coming year.

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will hear the Hungarian presidency will present the priorities for its term of office. Ministers will have an opportunity to present their comments. They will also hold a horizontal discussion on the rule of law situation in the EU member states. Separately, ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries. Both discussions will make use of the Commission’s 2024 rule of law report, which this year covers, for the first time, also developments in Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote address at the Association of Small Islands States Leaders Meeting in New York.

· Armenia's Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan will travel to the Netherlands and Brussels, Belgium, on a working visit.

· Paris Fashion Week begins. Maybe Derek Zoolander will be there, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium. Later, he will participate on a panel discussion at a roundtable on the digital euro at the House of the Euro in Brussels.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives opening remarks at the summit on Real estate climate data industry good practices organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Hungary Gross Wage (July)

· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Great Britain S&P Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (August)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia celebrates National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan Industrial Production (July)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Global

· The UN’s General Assembly’s General Debate of the 79th session officially begins. The theme for the 79th session is “"Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.” The Secretary-General will address this session of the General Debate. The Speakers list will be available in the UN Journal.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "An Assessment of the State Department's Withdrawal from Afghanistan by America's Top Diplomat." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify. The Committee recently issued a scathing report on how the withdrawal was conducted and President Biden’s role.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Institute for International Finance Canada Forum 2024 in Toronto.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

· Chile PPI (August)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (August)

· USA Redbook (September/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/20)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Defense Senior Officials meet in Vientian.

· ASEAN Energy Ministers meet in Vientian.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to business leaders in Osaka, Japan.

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (September)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

· South Korea PPI (August)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Taiwan Export Orders (August)

· Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosts an event on carbon-pricing, together with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada in New York. She will also deliver opening remarks at the Global Renewables Summit in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the opening speech at the European Confederation of Institutes of International Accounting (ECIIA) Banking Forum 2024 "AI and IA: Responding to the Digital Journey in Banking".

· Bankca d’Italia/G7 jointly hold a workshop entitled “Building a quantum safe financial system: what role for authorities and for the private sector?” in Rome.

· Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (September)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Cities Saudi Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau celebrates its 51st Independence Day, marking when Portugal gave the country it’s freedom.

· South African markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Leadership for Peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· At the UN, the 2nd Foreign Ministers meeting of G20 Brazil 2024 on the theme "Building a just world and a sustainable planet" will take place at the ECOSOC Chamber. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· The UN holds a high-level meeting on rising sea levels.

· The OECD presents its Interim Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US House of Representative’s Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to present a stop-gap spending bill that will continue US government funding through December 20. A deal was reached over the weekend with the Senate over the weekend. A large number of House Republicans are expected to vote against it – which will complicate Speaker Johnson’s future as Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· USA MBA Purchase Index (September/20)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/20)/ Building Permits Final (August)

· Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

· Argentina Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam's President and ruling Communist Party chief To Lam will visit Cuba through September 26 and meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel.

· The Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir will begin its second phase of voting for assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Chart Pack

· Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliament is expected to vote on raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual).

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in roundtable at European Banking Chief Compliance Officer Network (EBCCON) Plenary Meeting 2024 (virtual).

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Chambers of Commerce in Newcastle on Consumption.

· Hungary Current Account Q2

· France Consumer Confidence (September)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

· Spain PPI (August)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB McCaul Speech

· Russia Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Abu Dhabi will host Global Aerospace Summit. The focus of the meeting will be on investment and global trade in the industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Global

· G7 Agriculture Ministers will meet in Syracuse, Italy through September 28.

· The World Bank/IFS/ODI Finance Conference begins in Washington, D.C.

· BRICS Foreign Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

· BRICS Energy Ministers meet in Moscow.

· The BRICS Digital Forum is held in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

· The BRICS Science, Technology and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and separately with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the White House in Washington, D.C.

· El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele will make an official visit to Argentina. The meetings come after the two nations signed a security agreement in June.

· Ecuador will host the Women Economic Forum in Quito through September 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. Scheduled speakers include: Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

· Brazil PPI (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (August)

· USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/21)/ PCE Prices Final Q2/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ Fed Barr Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/25)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

· Colombia Business Confidence (August)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises called "Indestructible Brotherhood - 2024" will commence in Kazakhstan.

· The editors of Hong Kong media outlet Stand News face sentencing after being convicted of sedition last month under a colonial-era law. The maximum penalty in the case would be two years in prison.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/21)

· Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

· Malaysia PPI (August)

· Singapore Industrial Production (August)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Francis commences a four-day visit to Luxembourg and Belgium.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the future of European competitiveness and how to tackle the challenges facing industry and businesses in the single market. The policy debate follows discussions on the issue at the European Council meeting of 17-18 April 2024, and the Competitiveness Council on 24 May, along with the presentation of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report on 9 September.

· European Parliament members and political groups will present their nominations for the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the highest tribute paid by the EU in the field of human rights, at a joint meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Human Rights Subcommittee, and Development Committee. The vote on the three finalists will take place in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s General Council holds a meeting (virtual).

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the welcoming address at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening remarks at the stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will chair a panel discussion at stakeholder meeting about the ECB Guide on Governance & Risk Culture in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the 8th annual ESRB conference "New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give remarks at the Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. in Stuttgart, Germany.

§ Shoib Khan, director of insurance supervision at the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, speaks at the 29th Bank of America Financials CEO conference

§ The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority holds its annual public meeting.

· Great Britain Car Production (August)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence OCT

· Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Span Retail Sales (August)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· Italy Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

· Greece Total Credit (August)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (August)

Friday, September 27, 2024

Global

· G7 Energy Ministers will meet in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.

· The Group of 77 (G77) Foreign Ministers will meet in New York.

· The BRICS Communications Ministers meeting will take place in Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Higher U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)/ GDP (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

· USA Core PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/27)

· Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Argentina Current Account Q2

· Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

· South Korea Business Confidence (September)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Coincident Index Final (July)/ Leading Economic Index Final (July)

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

· Thailand Industrial Production (August)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds the second round of Senate elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give the opening remarks at a conference on "Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth" in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the keynote speech at the "Economics of Payments XIII" conference organized by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (August)

· France Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ PPI (August)

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (September)

· Spain Inflation Rate Prel (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Business Confidence (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (August)/ Economic Confidence Index (September)

· Germany Unemployment Rate (September)

· Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Economic & Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 10th anniversary of the Umbrella Movement, the mass protests in Hong Kong over election rights and the ability of city citizens to pick their own local leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Austria holds Parliamentary elections. 183 seats of the National Council and lower house of parliament are up. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) currently is polling at 26%, and the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer with 25%. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is close behind with 21% (which means no single party will likely secure a majority, forcing a coalition government).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/21/24 Francis Kelly 9/21/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Get Ready for the Fed Governor Speech-A-Palooza, SEC Chair Gensler Defends His Agenda on the Hill This Week, and the Fed Holds Its Annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference

September 23 - 27, 2024

What is Fed Governor Speech-A-Palooza, you ask? It is when Federal Reserve Board Governors give seven separate speeches in a single day – this coming Thursday. Considering there are only seven Fed Governors in total, that is a lot. The Governors collectively will cover a wide range of issues: financial inclusion, the state of the U.S. Treasury markets, Artificial Intelligence and the workforce, the economic outlook, and monetary policy. Only Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller are not scheduled to give a public speech. For the whole week, they give a total of ten speeches or talks. Whew!

Of note, this coming week, the Fed is holding its annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference at the New York Federal Reserve. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak with Fed Chair Jay Powell and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr.

Chair Gensler has a busy week ahead. He is also testifying before both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee for the annual oversight hearings of the SEC. Watch for House and Senate Republicans to strongly challenge Gensler on his views of crypto regulation and hiring practices at the agency.

Looking at the past week, there are several items of note. Fed Chair Jay Powell spoke of the troubled regulatory effort to develop new capital standards. He promised that the regulator would "move as a group" to develop a new proposal—despite the draft not being completely finished, as the Fed, FDIC, and OCC are at significant odds on final details.

Also last week, the FDIC, the OCC, and the Justice Department finalized new rules that will give the agencies more power to scrutinize bank mergers – yet another chilling effect put into effect to bank mergers overall. The rules result from President Biden's executive order in 2021 calling for "revitalized merger oversight."

Finally, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) held an unannounced meeting on Friday morning. The Council was given an update from Treasury staff on key themes in an upcoming staff progress report by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance. They also received an update from the Council's Climate-related Financial Risk Committee on progress over the last year on the development of risk indicators and narrative analyses to monitor climate-related financial risks. And they also voted to approve its fiscal year 2025 budget (a total of $14,783,781).

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, September 24, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the nominations of Marcus D. Graham to be a member of the Farm Credit Administration Board, Farm Credit Administration; and Julie Brinn Siegel to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission." SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify.

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on "The Costs of Inaction: Economic Risks from Housing Unaffordability."

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, September 24, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission." SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify.

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Regulatory Recipe for Economic Uncertainty: The Endless Basel Endgame and an Onslaught of Hurried Rulemaking Undertaken by the Administration."

· Thursday, September 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Vanishing Independence: How FHFA’s Political Agenda Endangers Homeowners and Taxpayers.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, September 24, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.

· Wednesday, September 25, 4:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· Thursday, September 26, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler participates in a Fireside chat on Financial Inclusion with President Susan M. Collins, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual)

· Thursday, September 26, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion on the “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Mid-size Bank Coalition of America Board of Directors Workshop.

· Thursday, September 26 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds its 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. Scheduled speakers include Brian Smith, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

· Thursday, September 26, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a roundtable discussion entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Workforce Development” at the Roundtable Discussion with Community Stakeholders, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbus State Community College, Columbus, Ohio.

· Thursday, September 26, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a fireside chat on financial inclusion with Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Board (virtual).

· Thursday, September 26, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force at the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series, Columbus, Ohio.

· Friday, September 27, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation at the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, September 24, 9:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2024 in Chicago.

· Wednesday, September 26 – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the 10th Annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference in New York.

· Thursday, September 26, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, September 23, 2:40 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will be featured in a fireside chat, “Preparing for Digital Transformation: The Role of Regulation,” at the Global Blockchain Business Council’s (GBBC) 7th Annual Blockchain Central at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

· Monday, September 23, 4:00 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the API/ClearPath Carbon Innovation Forum in New York.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a board meeting.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, September 19, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold an Open Commission Meeting. The Commission will hear a staff presentation on the Social Media and Video Streaming Services 6(b) Orders and a staff presentation on the Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

· Thursday, September 19, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold an informal hearing on the Proposed Amendments to the Energy Labeling Rule.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Wednesday, September 22 – 25 – The Investment Company Institute holds its 2024 Tax and Accounting Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

· Thursday & Friday, September 26-27 – SIFMA Holds their “Future of Asset Management North America” Conference in New York.

· Thursday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Elections: Financial Regulation.

· Thursday, September 26, 10:00 a.m. – The Futures Industry Association holds an online seminar entitled “The CFTC’s Evolving Disclosure Requirements.”

· Thursday, September 26 – SIFMA holds its Global Tax Reporting Symposium in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 23, 2:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Making housing more affordable: Issues at stake in the 2024 election."

· Wednesday, September 25, 10:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project will hold a webinar entitled “Taking on Tax: Modernizing Partnership Taxation.”

· Thursday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "The Economic Effects of Trump's Plans for tariffs, Deportations, and the Fed."

· Thursday, September 26 , 9:00 a.m. - The Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center holds its Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics on "Next Frontiers in Finance, Technology, and Energy."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/21/24 Francis Kelly 9/21/24

The Global Week Ahead

Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues

For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet. But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut.

Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting. The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats. But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections. History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box. There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.

Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week. The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere. As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week. It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S. The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.

Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures. In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey. In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.

Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

· Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.

· The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.

· After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.

· Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China. Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan).

· The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code. The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 16, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.

· UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.

· The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

· Pennsylvania beings early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary.

· Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.

· An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.

European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

· Serbia Building Permits (July)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

· Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Global

· In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)

· USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

· India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)

· Australia RBA Jones Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament.

· The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19. They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.

· Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration. This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate.

· Milan Fashion Week begins. Derek Zoolander will not be there.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

· Belarus GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw. The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

· The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates. Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)

· India M3 Money Supply (September/06)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow. Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.

· Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)

· Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.

· significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements).

· G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.

· Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2

· The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)

· Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao holds talks with EU's Valdis Dombrovskis on EV tariffs in Brussels.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter. Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany. Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.

· European Union New Car Registrations (August)

· Euro Area Current Account (July)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)

· Italy Current Account (July)

· Serbia Current Account (July)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Slovakia Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 20, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days begins and runs through September 23 in New York. The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all".

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.

· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

· Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

· India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.

· Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC. She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

· Germany PPI (August)

· France Business Confidence (September)

· Switzerland Current Account Q2

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

· Greece Current Account (July)

· Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

· Spain Balance of Trade (July)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

· Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

· Ghana PPI (August)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Global

· The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden will host the Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware. The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will gather to discuss security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

· Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/14/24 Francis Kelly 9/14/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Backs Down on Bigger Bank Capital Standards Setting Up A Possible FDIC Vote This Week; Election Betting Gets Held Up Again, and FDIC Chair Gruenberg Refuses to Testify Before Congress

September 16 - 20, 2024

The coming week will be filled with lots of regulatory speeches, congressional hearings, and a good number of trade association conferences. However, the biggest event is likely to be the FDIC's Open Meeting, where they may vote on the much-criticized and now scaled-back bank capital requirements. In a major concession to lobbying by big banks and many members of Congress, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr announced last week that the Fed, OCC, and FDIC had negotiated a re-write, but it is unclear if all the details have been finalized among the three regulators.

The FDIC action comes as embattled FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg shockingly refused a request to testify before the House Financial Services Committee. Gruenberg, who has announced he will at some point step down from his role, allowing a toxic work environment and widespread sexual harassment as well as his own personal unprofessional behavior, was supposed to testify on September 19, but his staff informed the Committee he would not show up. As we have noted in previous updates, Gruenberg refuses to step down until a replacement is confirmed by the US Senate, which most seasoned observers believe will not happen until next year due to the elections and the Senate schedule – something Gruenberg clearly understands as he desperately clings to power.

Regarding Gruenberg's replacement, Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is apparently looking to hold a committee confirmation vote for current CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero this week. But we know two senators are out of action this week for health reasons and believe the committee vote probably will not happen.

Also, election betting on financial exchanges was expected to begin this coming week. However, a federal appellate court halted the financial exchange Kalshi on Friday to review the situation more closely. The CFTCC had ruled against allowing such betting through derivative markets. However, a federal judge overturned the CFTC block Thursday, and Kalshi began to trade election betting contracts quickly, but they are now in limbo as the appellate court looks deeper into the matter. How long until they rule is anyone's guess. But it could come as early as this week.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, September 17, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection holds a hearing entitled “Back to School: Shedding Light on Risks and Harm in the Private Student Lending and Servicing Market”

· Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee will hold a hearing on the macroeconomic impacts of potential tax reform in 2025.

· Sometime During the Week of September 16 – TBD – Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) may attempt to bring up for a committee vote the nomination of FDIC Chair-designate Christy Goldsmith Romero – along with several other nominations (an SEC Commissioner nomination, an insurance expert for the Financial Stability Oversight Council, and a nominee for Assistant Secretary of Treasury).

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will hold a hearing entitled “Dazed and Confused: Breaking Down the SEC’s Politicized Approach to Digital Assets.”

· Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Oversight Hearing: Inspectors General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Department of Transportation, and the National Railroad Passenger Corporation."

· Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Protecting Americans Savings: Examining the Economics of the Multi-Billion Dollar Romance Confidence Scam Industry.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday and Wednesday, September 17 & 18 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a press release on the 18th at 2:00 p.m.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, September 16, 1:30 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss topics related to climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, cyber insurance developments, and international insurance issues and to receive status updates from each of its subcommittees and from FIO on its activities and consider any new business.

· Tuesday, September 17, 3:45 p.m. – Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang will speak at the Georgetown Univeristy Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy in Washington, D.C..

· Thursday, September 19, 9:30 a.m. – The Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund holds a meeting of the Community Development Advisory Board for a report from the CDFI Fund Director on the activities of the CDFI Fund and panel discussions related to the advisory board's subcommittees.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting. The agenda is whether to amend Regulation NMS to “allow the minimum pricing increments for quoting of certain NMS stocks, reduce the access fee caps, and enhance the transparency of better priced order.”

· Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – the SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee meets at the SEC Headquarters. The committee will host two panels. The first is entitled “Investment Advice: A History and Update on Who is Required to Serve in Your Best Interest” and the second “Key Topics from Securities Litigation: Shareholder Proposals and “Tracing” in Section 11 Litigation.” The full agenda can be found HERE. And a full listing of the Advisory Committee members can be found HERE.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, September 17, 10:30 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam to speak at Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy Financial Markets Quality 2024.

· Wednesday, September 18, 11:00 a.m. (CDT) – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the 2025 Outlook Panel at the Futures Industry Association’s Forum: Commodities 2024 in Houston, Texas.

· Friday, September 20, 10:00 a.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting to consider Final Guidance regarding the Listing of Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivative Contracts.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board will hold an Open Meeting. The agenda includes a proposed rulemaking on Custodial Deposit Accounts as well as the FDIC’s final statement of Policy on Bank Merger Transactions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, September 19, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a board meeting.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, September 19, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold an informal hearing on the Proposed Amendments to the Energy Labeling Rule.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· September 15 – 18, 2024 – SIFMA is holding its Ops2024 Conference in San Diego, California.

· September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The International Institute for Finance holds an online conference entitled “Energy Supply Ratio: Examining a New Climate Disclosure Metric.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 16, 11:00 a.m. – The Wilson Center's Global Europe Program holds a discussion on "Cyprus Banks on the Frontline of Sanctions Compliance."

· September 17, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion entitled “The Economic Danger of Revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Status.”

· Wednesday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution is holding an event entitled “Mobilizing the Market: The Barriers to Financing a More Scalable Climate Response” Ethan Zindler, the Climate Counselor at the US Treasury Department, will give the keynote remarks.

· Thursday, September 19, 5:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute will hold an event entitled “The Forgotten Solution to the Housing Crunch: A Premier of the AEI Housing Center’s Documentary on Light-Touch Density.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/13/24 Francis Kelly 9/13/24

The Global Week Ahead

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Markets are nervously watching the Mexican government's legislative march toward making the judiciary an elected role rather than one that is appointed, from the Supreme Court on down. Only one other nation elects its Supreme Court—Bolivia—and it did not turn out very well. As the Economist reported this week, it's been a complete disaster, leading to a heavily politicized judiciary and several attempted coups.

Both the Canadian and US governments, via their ambassadors in Mexico City, have expressed their strong concerns, and businesses are worried contract law will become the domain of local politicians and drug cartels. Despite widespread protests in opposition to the measure, the Mexican Senate is expected to ratify the measure this week following the Mexican lower House passing it last week. The legislation is all part of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) move to punish the Supreme Court for overturning several of his other highly controversial legislative efforts. Interestingly, there is a good chance the Supreme Court will rule the legislation itself is unconstitutional, which will set up a very tense political scenario in Mexico City (for an excellent brief on the situation, our friend Ryan Berg at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote a superb overview you can read HERE).

Also this week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet for their first (and perhaps only) presidential debate Tuesday night. The stakes could not be higher as most recent polling shows the two candidates locked neck-and-neck with two months to go before the elections.

Turning to the global economic radar screen this week, markets are cautiously watching the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if the ECB lowers rates further or holds off as several EU countries – particularly Germany – struggle economically.

Also this week, US inflation figures for August are released, hopefully further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates when they meet the following week (September 18). The debate has gotten a little heated this past week as to whether it would be a cut of 25 basis points or if the Fed would go big and cut 50 basis points. Also, this week, the University of Michigan consumer survey comes out Friday, and most economists expect it to tick up slightly.

Looking at what else is going on in Europe this week aside from the ECB meeting, the UK releases July GDP figures, which will be important as the UK Parliament begins debating contentious legislation to cut household fuel subsidies this week.

In Asia, China will have a big week, releasing inflation, trade, and overall economic activity figures—all coming after a recent report showing PMIs sagging. Also, this week, Japan will release its Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

· The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

· The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan. Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins an official visit to China through September 12.

· Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi will make an official visit to Vietnam through September. 10. Additionally, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also make a simultaneous visit.

· Pope Francis will continue his Asia and Oceania tour by visiting Papua New Guinea through September 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary. The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Strengthening UN Peacekeeping: Reflections for the Future.

· The Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency hold board meetings in Vienna, Austria. Board discussions are expected to focus on verification and monitoring in Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015); application of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; nuclear safety, security and safeguards in Ukraine; transfer of the nuclear materials in the context of AUKUS and its safeguards in all aspects under the NPT; application of IAEA safeguards in the Middle East; and the restoration of sovereign equality of Member States in the IAEA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress returns from August recess.

· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Giang in Washington, D.C.

· In Bolivia, widespread protests are expected all week. Former President Evo Morales will be leading the efforts.

· Apple holds its annual media event to launch their new products, including a new iteration of the iPhone.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· USA Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Argentina Industrial Production (July)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will co-host the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit in Seoul. Co-hosting will be Singapore, the Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK. Representatives from the militaries and governments of more than 90 countries are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2

· Australia Building Permits Final (July)/ Private House Approvals Final (July)

· China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

· Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Former European Central Bank President and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi presents report on Europe's competitiveness with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

· Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr visits Beijing for meetings. The visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties between the two countries.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers through September 10 in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas will visit Armenia to take part in the launch of a visa liberalization dialogue with the European Union.

· NATO holds Steadfast Foxtrot 24 military exercises in Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Conference in New York.

· Ireland Construction PMI (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

· Romania Balance of Trade (July)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Hungary Budget Balance (August)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah commemorates slain commander Fuad Shukr 40 days after Israeli strike near Beirut.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Global

· The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly will begin.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

· National Security Advisors of the BRICS countries will meet in St. Petersburg, Russia to help plan for the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia in October.

· OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in their first presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/06)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

· Canada BoC Macklem Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China's legislative Standing Committee will discuss various draft bills, including ones related to energy and anti-money laundering work, through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)/ Car Sales (August)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK Parliament begins debate over proposed cuts to the winter fuel payments plan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (July)

· Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Italy Industrial Production (July)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan holds parliamentary elections.

· Saudi Arabia hosts the Global Artificial Intelligence Summit (GAIN) in Riyadh. There will be more than 400 speakers, 20,000 participants with an expected 25 million online participants.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (July)

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on 1591 Committee (regarding the situation in the Sudan), followed by a briefing on 1591 Committee. They are expected to vote on whether to renew sanctions.

· G7 Labor Ministers meet through September 13 in Cagliari, Italy.

· The International Energy Administration publishes the lates monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico’s Senate is expected to vote on the highly controversial judicial reform bill. The lower House approved the bill on September 4. Demonstrations are expected across Mexico City in opposition to the measure.

· Microsoft will hold a cybersecurity summit in wake of CrowdStrike outage.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/06)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/06)

· Mexico Industrial Production (July)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

· Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· SEMI (the international semiconductor industry group) will host the Semicon Exhibition in New Delhi, India through September 13. The event is expected to draw more than 40,000 visitors and host more than 600 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa will give a speech in Akita, Japan.

· China Vehicle Sales (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Union President Ursula von der Leyden will announce the new EU Commissioners.

· There will be a pro-independence march today (Catalan Day) in Catalan, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion "Supervision and regulation – Followers or pacemakers in the "new world"? - Finding the future role of supervision and regulation" at BaFin Conference "SSM 2034 – an outlook" in Bonn, Germany.

· Romania Inflation Rate (August)

· Great Britain GDP (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (July)

· Turkey Retail Sales (July)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· The G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Cuiaba, Brazil.

· The UN’s One Planet Network Forum 2024, scheduled for September 12-13 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will focus on reducing inequalities and achieving just transitions through sustainable consumption and production, highlighting the role of the circular economy. The event will bring together stakeholders from diverse sectors to discuss key topics including green skills, sustainable cities, circular economies, and sustainable public procurement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (July)

· Canada Building Permits (July)

· USA Continuing Jobless Claims (August/31)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/11)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 11th Xiangshan Forum begins in Beijing and runs through September 14. The high-level defense and security event brings together military leaders from around the world will attend to discuss the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.” More than 30 defense ministers are expected to attend.

· China’s International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing and runs through September 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech in Okayama, Japan.

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/07)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

· India Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The AI Regulation Forum begins in Brussels. Policymakers from around Europe and the world will gather to discuss how AI should be regulated and how best to comply with existing laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets on interest rates in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the meeting.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ Current Account (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)

· Turkey Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 13, 2024

Global

· G20 Digital Ministers meet in Maceio, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade/ Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/13)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

· Canada Capacity Utilization Q2/ Wholesale Sales Final (July)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (August)/ Export Prices (August)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q2

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Budapest, Hungary. They will discuss EU macroeconomic developments, get a debrief from the G7, and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 14. On Friday afternoon, EU ministers and central bank governors would discuss the issue of “sustainable financing of green transition”. The Secretary-General of OECD and the CEO of the Hungarian Government Debt Management Agency would provide presentations on how to bridge financing gap with innovative instruments, how to better mobilize household and other private savings when there is a need to enhance green transition and put public debt on a downward path simultaneously. The Saturday morning session will be devoted to “the effects of demographic changes on public debt sustainability”, where delegations will discuss debt sustainability risks in the context of aging societies and possible lines of action. This issue is a top priority for the Hungarian EU Presidency, as it put at risk the EU’s long-term economic prosperity due to shrinking working-age population and labor shortages. The discussion will be based on the contribution of the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel. During the ministerial working lunch the Managing Director of the IMF will outline “the new financing opportunities in supporting low-income countries in their response to global challenges”.

· The NATO Military Committee Conference will begin in Prague, Czech Republic and run through September 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

· France Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Construction Output Q2

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ NBS Press Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/7/24 Francis Kelly 9/7/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Moving to Full Throttle: Washington Ramps Up On Multiple Regulatory Fronts This Week

September 9 - 13, 2024

Congress returns to work this week, having been out of session since the end of July. The rest of Washington’s regulatory world is already buzzing with activity, and combined, there is a lot going on.

In the coming week, we will closely watch the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions hearing entitled “Transparency in Global Governance.” The hearing is aimed at how the Basel Committee, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and other international organizations interact with US financial regulators and their influence on regulatory developments. The only problem is that these organizations are refusing to appear, infuriating Subcommittee Chair Representative Andy Barr (R-KY). At this point, we are not sure who will testify, and no one is listed on the Committee’s website.

Also on the Hill this week, the House Agriculture Committee is scheduling a closed-door hearing for members to get briefed and up-to-speed on “event contracts.” For those of you unfamiliar with event contracts, they are the ability for financial traders to put “contract” wagers on, well, everything. As Politico noted, it can be things as weird as what a movie’s Rotten Tomato scores will be.

Also this week, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at the Brookings Institution on the status of the Fed's Basel III regulatory initiative. Considering the proposal has come under withering criticism from banks and Congress (not to mention public doubts from Fed Chair Jay Powell and several Fed Governors) and has been intensely rewritten, Barr’s comments will be important.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give a speech and participate in a fireside chat at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event. The topics of the discussion seem likely to be wide-ranging.

Last week ended up being a bit busier than anyone expected. We would note that Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu gave an important speech at the Joint European Banking Authority and European Central Bank International Conference in Frankfurt, Germany (which was not added to his public calendar until the very last minute). In his remarks, Hsu said regulators should consider creating a process for officially designating which banks within the domestic financial system are important – DSIBs. Hsu pointed out some other countries already do this and suggested the US follow suit.

Also, last week, a Federal Court blocked the CFTC’s rejection of US election betting markets – talk about good timing for all you election junkies out there!

Below is what else is happening in the regulatory world in Washington this week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the month of August and returns to work on September 9.

House of Representatives

· TBD – The House Agriculture Committee will hold a closed-door briefing for members on the topic of event contracts (which are financial products allowing traders to wager on virtually anything). No date or time has been released yet.

· Tuesday, September 10, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will hold a hearing entitled “Decoding DeFi: Breaking Down the Future of Decentralized Finance.”

· Tuesday, September 10, 10:30 a.m. – The House Education and Workforce Committee holds a hearing entitled “ERISA’s 50th Anniversary: The Value of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits”

· Tuesday, September 10, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing entitled “The Fall of ESG: Scrutinizing the Failed Use of Environmental, Social, & Governance Standards and the Influence of Proxy Advisors.”

· Wednesday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Transparency in Global Governance”

· Wednesday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Severe Food Distribution Shortages in Tribal and Elderly Communities.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, September 10, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. at an event entitled “The Basel III Endgame: A Conversation with Michael Barr.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, September 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity for opening remarks from TACRE Chair Michael Nutter, an overview of the work conducted by the TACRE subcommittees since the April 18, 2024, TACRE meeting, a possible vote on recommendations to make to the Treasury Department and briefings from government officials from the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, September 9, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds an Open Meeting to consider he Commission will consider whether to approve a new quality control standard, QC 1000, A Firm’s System of Quality Control, and related amendments, as adopted by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.

· Tuesday, September 10, 9:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Following his speech, he will participate in a fireside chat with Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.

· Thursday, September 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Monday, September 9, 12:30 p.m. – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra speaks at an event hosted by Intercontinental Exchange and the National Housing Conference.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency

· Tuesday, September 10 – 11 – The FHFA holds a meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Affordable, Equitable, and Sustainable Housing to advise FHFA in the exercise of its oversight functions regarding affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing, including but not limited to, affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing needs, barriers to access, barriers to long-term sustainability, and any regulatory, guidance, or policy changes that may be necessary or beneficial to expand such housing.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, September 12, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA holds a meeting of the quarterly report on economic conditions and Farm Credit System condition and performance.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, September 12: The American Bankers Association will hold a virtual conference entitled “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Summit.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, September 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “Do EU regulations unduly penalize securitization?” Emmanuelle Assouan, Director General for Financial Stability and Operations, Bank of France, will speak.

· Tuesday, September 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Farm Foundation holds a discussion on "The Agricultural Platforms of the Candidates for President of the United States."

· Tuesday, September 10, 9:30 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts SEC Chair Gary Gensler for a speech and fireside chat.

· Thursday, September 12, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Elections: Fiscal and Growth Outlooks.”

· Thursday, September 12, 9:30 a.m. – The Cato Institute holds a conference entitled “Financial Privacy Under Fire: Protecting and Restoring Americans’ Rights’ in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, September 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: Lessons learned and the debate ahead.”

· Thursday, September 12, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy holds a Leaders Speaker Series with former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/6/24 Francis Kelly 9/6/24

Fulcrum Perspectives

A Quiet Company of Dangerous Men: The Forgotten British Special Operations Soldiers of World War II

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Monday, September 23, 2024

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Friday, September 27, 2024

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Latin America Struggles with Cheap Chinese EV Imports, the Very Slow German Military Modernization, and How Russia Creatively Gets Around Western Sanctions.

September 20 - 22, 2024

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Monday, September 16, 2024

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Friday, September 20, 2024

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Sunday, September 22, 2024

September 13 - 15, 2024

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Monday, September 9, 2024

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Friday, September 13, 2024

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Moving to Full Throttle: Washington Ramps Up On Multiple Regulatory Fronts This Week

September 9 - 13, 2024

Mexico's Judicial Reform Risk, Bad Best on "Peak China," and Germany's Economic Challenge

Subscribe to our newsletter.