Recommended Weekend Reads

May 31 - June 2, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  In this issue, we have a new suggestion: Twitter accounts we follow and find interesting, informative, and fun.   We hope you find all of this useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Geoeconomics

• Why is the U.S. GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies?  FEDS Notes/May 17, 2024

  In this note, we investigate possible drivers explaining the stark difference in economic performance between the U.S. and AFEs over the past few years, considering both cyclical factors, such as fiscal and monetary policies, as well more structural factors, such as labor market flexibility and business dynamism. We also recognize the role of large shocks that particularly affected certain regions such as the economic shocks resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine that had an outsized effect in Europe. Although a precise quantification of each channel is left for future research, we argue that structural factors play a role in the way different economies responded to cyclical policies.3 In addition, we caution against interpreting recent productivity developments as only reflecting permanent shifts across economies.

• The Rise of Mesoeconomics   William Janeway/Project Syndicate

  The digitalization of economic life and real-world data has opened up new possibilities for the study of the economic networks, regions, and sectors that ultimately determine how economic policies play out in the real world. Such modes of thinking will be crucial for economic policymaking in a new age of geopolitical risk.

• Instruments of economic security  Bruegel

  Geopolitical and economic developments, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and trade disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, have raised concerns about the European Union’s exposure to hostile countries. The challenge of improving European economic security (which we narrowly treat here as exposure to foreign trade or production shocks) has grown in importance, with various relevant policy measures introduced at the EU level.  Focusing in particular on the threat posed by economic coercion, this paper begins by assessing the nature of this threat before outlining two lessons that can be drawn from two recent instances of this coercion in action: China’s actions against Lithuania and Australia, respectively.

•  Commercial Real Estate in Focus   Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Commercial real estate (CRE) is navigating several challenges, ranging from a looming maturity wall requiring much of the sector to refinance at higher interest rates (commonly referred to as “repricing risk”) to a deterioration in overall market fundamentals, including moderating net operating income (NOI), rising vacancies and declining valuations. This is particularly true for office properties, which face additional headwinds from an increase in hybrid and remote work and troubled downtowns. This blog post provides an overview of the size and structure of the U.S. CRE market, the cyclical headwinds resulting from higher interest rates, and the softening of market fundamentals.  As U.S. banks hold roughly half of all CRE debt, risks related to this sector remain a challenge for the banking system. Particularly among banks with high CRE concentrations, there is the potential for liquidity concerns and capital deterioration if and when losses materialize.

Ukraine War/Russia

• Russia is using the Soviet playbook in the Global South to challenge the West – and it is working  Chatham House

  Russia has been courting the states of the Global South to circumvent Western sanctions and avoid international isolation – with notable success. In February 2024, Moscow hosted the first ‘For the Freedom of Nations’ forum with 400 delegates from 60 countries, aiming to rally the countries of the Global South against ‘Western neo-colonialism’.  In its war on Ukraine, Moscow has turned the Global South into both an instrument and a theatre of geopolitical competition, capitalizing on long-held grievances of colonialism and power imbalance. Much like its Soviet predecessor, Russia uses ‘anti-imperialism’ as its main propaganda theme and as an ideological basis for its global engagement. It has effectively leveraged legacies such as memories of Soviet support for decolonization and traditions of non-alignment, bringing deep-seated resentment against the West to the fore. 

• The End of the Near Abroad   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbors are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.  Are these states a new buffer between NATO and Russia?  Or a threat to Russia in and of themselves?

• The Memo-Affair: Plan, Bluff, or Accident? Russia’s “Project” on Altering Maritime Borders in the Baltic Sea   Wilson Center

  On the evening of Tuesday, May 21, 2024, Russian media reported on a short technical document posted online by the Russian Defence Ministry (MOD) regarding a maritime border project in the Baltic Sea. In the memo, the Ministry was seeking approval for its proposal on a “draft list of geographical coordinates” that would help recalculate “baselines measuring the width of Russia’s territorial sea, mainland coastline and Baltic Sea islands.”  By establishing “a missing straight baseline system,” the “maritime border” of the Russian Federation would, according to the document, ultimately be altered. This redrawing of the boundary, pertaining specifically to the Kaliningrad region (near Baltiysk and Zelenograd) and the eastern Gulf of Finland (around several islands that the Finnish government ceded to the USSR in 1940), would allow Russia to “use these waters as internal.”  To the governments of Finland and Lithuania, this news came as a complete surprise.

• Action Plan 3.0: Strengthening Sanctions Against the Russian Federation Working Group Paper #19 of the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions

  Significant sanctions have already been imposed on Russia, for which the sanctions coalition should be applauded. Sanctions have had a major impact on the Russian economy and have constrained Russia’s military and financial capabilities. In particular, the international sanctions coalition –around 50 countries – has substantially reduced Russian export markets and revenues. In addition, the Kremlin’s inability to access roughly $300 billion in central bank reserves has dramatically limited its policy maneuvers. But more efforts are needed.  The Working Group, made up of independent experts from many countries, proposes the following in their latest report: Confiscate frozen Russian assets abroad, impose new sanctions on Russian exports (gas, nitrogen fertilizers, metals), impose import tariffs on all remaining Russian exports, strengthen technology bans, tighten financial sanctions, impose more sanctions on Russian companies, impose more personal sanctions, prevent lawyers from enabling sanctions evasion, designate Russia as a sponsor of terrorism, stop Western companies from doing business with Russia, strengthen enforcement of existing sanctions, and expand secondary sanctions on other countries that do business with Russia.

 Taiwan 

• Beware forecasts of doom for Taiwan under Lai   Ryan Hass/Brookings Institution

  Newly inaugurated Taiwanese President Ching Te (“William”) Lai. Lai famously once referred to himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” Considering Beijing has threatened to go to war to prevent Taiwan's independence, the thinking goes that Lai’s recent inauguration could spell impending trouble. Such analysis is easy to write and almost certainly wrong. Lai is not a wild-eyed zealot with a one-track-minded focus on Taiwan's independence. He is a professional politician who has organized his career around becoming Taiwan’s president. Now that he has ascended to Taiwan’s top elected position, he will want to win reelection. To do so, he almost certainly will need to tack to the center of Taiwan’s political spectrum rather than cater to the wishes of a small minority of Taiwan voters who favor throwing caution to the wind in service of Taiwan's independence or unification. Indeed, less than 6 percent of Taiwan’s voters support “the immediate pursuit of independence from, or unification with, the People’s Republic of China.”

 Recommendations from the Twitterverse 

We are starting something new with this issue: We will periodically offer recommended Twitter accounts we find particularly informative and useful.  We hope you find them useful, too.

• Robin Brooks/Brookings Institution (@robin-j-brooks)

  Brooks is the former Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs and the Chief Economist at the Institute for International Finance. He is now a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. His voluminous stream of great charts and graphs revealing the massive back-door trade avenues employed by Russia to evade sanctions is jaw-dropping.  But he covers a host of other well-researched global economic issues, as well.

•  Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies (@ryanbergPhD)

  I will say it right up front: Ryan is a good friend.  But he’s also hands-down the best observer/academic I know of all things Latin America, and his Twitter site is the “one-stop shopping” place to go to stay up to date on the region.  As the Director of the Americas Program at CSIS, he somehow devours the many diverse political, economic, social, and business streams running through the region and is able to synthesize is quickly and right on target. He’s also the leading expert on China’s growing investment entanglements in the region. 

• Milei Explains (@Milei_Explains)

  I’m not sure who produces this twitter page, but I find it quite fun and informative as Argentine President Javier Milei fights to transform the economic mess that Argentina is in today.  The site explains: “Milei in English. translates [Argentine President Javier] Milei for friends. No politics. 100% Economics.  Not affiliated with Javier Milei.”  

Our Recommended Summer Reading List (Part I)

Memorial Day is here, and that means summer is upon us. I" 'm a big fan of recommended book lists - I collect them! - and, for the first time in my life, I took a stab compiling a list of ten books I've read this year that I really liked. Hopefully, you will find them as entertaining and enlightening as I did when lounging on the beach. I hope to have a second list of recommended books later this summer, too. 

The Chile Project: The Story of the Chicago Boys and the Downfall of Neoliberalism by Sebastian Edwards (Princeton Press, 2024, 376 pages)

In 1955, the U.S. State Department launched the "Chile Project" - an effort to train and assist Chilean economists at the University of Chicago to help embed free market policies in the country. A steady flow of Chile's best and brightest matriculated through the University's graduate program, studying under some of the most brilliant economists in the World, including Milton Friedman. By the time General Augusto Pinochet overthrew the Neo-Marxist regime of President Salvador Allende in 1973, this cadre of free market economists was in a position to move sweeping reforms of privatization and deregulation. This is a fascinating history of what happened, the impact it had not only on Chile but the whole region, and how Chileans ultimately rebelled in 2019 against neoliberalism and elected Gabriel Boric president, a socialist dedicated to ending "neoliberalism." We would note, however, that Boric has struggled badly to implement his promised changes, including two failed efforts to rewrite the constitution.

US - Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to Crisis? By Ryan Hass, Bonnie Glaser, and Richard Bush (Brookings Institution Press, 2023, 184 pages)

Over the last two years, markets have been concerned about a possible invasion of Taiwan, how the U.S. would respond, and what it would mean for the global economy. However, in our conversations with numerous market participants, many do not understand the dynamics of the US-Taiwan relationship, the history of China-Taiwan relations, and other important dynamics. Hass, Glaser, and Bush have published an excellent and much-needed examination of all these critical questions. To understand what is happening and what might happen, you must read this well-written and indispensable book.

We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy & the New Cold War by Matthew Koenig and Dan Negra (Republic Book Publishers, 2024, 220 pages)

Matthew Koenig's and Dan Negraea's book is getting wide circulation as something from a Republican foreign policy historical manifesto. The title comes from Ronald Reagan, who was asked in 1977 what the driving principle of his foreign policy was. His response: "My idea of American policy toward the Soviet Union is simple, and some would say simplistic. It is this: We win, and they lose." The authors, both admirers of Reagan and veterans of the Trump Administration, push back on the strain of isolationism currently running through the Republican Party. And it is having an effect as countless Republican operatives and strategists we've spoken to have recommended the book to me - and I'm glad they did, as it gave me an excellent inside view of where Republican foreign policy will likely go in the years to come.

Breaking the Mold: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity by Raghuram G. Rajan (and Rohit Samba ( Princeton University Press, 2024, 336 pages)

Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan and Penn State Professor Rohit Lamba write a fascinating and taunt guide to understanding what India has accomplished economically and what it still needs to do going forward. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the World. However, it is still only one-fifth the size of China, and India's economic growth needs to be faster to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path is intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. Rajan and Lamba outline what needs to be done to overcome these challenges. 

The Dillon Era: Douglas Dillon in the Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson Administrations by Richard Aldous (McGill - Queens University Press, 2023, 296 pages)

Having grown up in Washington, I was taught by my grandfather (who was a mega-lobbyist who knew presidents and the most influential members of Congress while having a brother who was the FBI Deputy Director under J. Edgar Hoover) that history is more often quietly made by the extraordinary men and women serving the President than the President themselves. Douglas Dillon was one of those men - who is sadly fading away with the sands of history. The scion of a fabulously wealthy family that founded the then-Wall Street powerhouse investment bank Dillon Reed, he never forgot the real roots of his family - his grandfather had been a poor Polish Jew who emigrated to the U.S., settled in Texas, changed his name to "Dylion" which was his mother's name and from which it was anglicized to Dillon. This thin biography does a fantastic job recounting Douglas Dillon, who served as Treasury Secretary, savvy advisor to Presidents, Ambassador to France (back when that meant something and was not just an honorific), and Wall Street titan himself. 

Unexpected Revolutionaries: How Central Banks Made and Unmade Economic Orthodoxy by Manuela Moschella (Cornell University Press, 2024, 188 pages)

I stumbled upon this slim little book in a bookstore, and once I started reading it, I could not put it down. A fascinating read looking at how central banks - specifically the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan - have massively transformed from the staid and predictable institutions of the last century due to the shocks of the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID. 

In short, the playbooks central banks had worked from for decades had to be tossed, and new ways of dealing with economic shocks developed. The history the author covers is well-written and fascinating, but what was particularly engaging was how it has led to central banks stretching into areas far beyond monetary policy, such as climate change and inequality. The "neoliberal macroeconomic regime," as we have known it, is gone, and a new age of central banking is upon us in ways we are only just beginning to understand. 

Ian Fleming: The Complete Man by Nicholas Shakespeare (Harper Publishing, 2024, 864 pages)

Since he first wrote "Casino Royale" in 1953, Ian Fleming's James Bond has tightly gripped the imaginations of readers and moviegoers worldwide. It also helped Great Britain, struggling to get back on its feet after World War II, when the Empire began crumbling and colonial states broke away. Indeed, Fleming's Bond recovered a sense of Britain's strength, swagger, and pride so powerfully that James Bond has become enshrined as an actual emblem of "Great" Britain itself (Recall in 2012, then-Bond actor Daniel Craig - playing Bond one last time - joined forces with Queen Elizabeth in Buckingham Palace to go forth together in a grand video production to officially open the 2012 Olympics in London). But who was Ian Fleming? In this superb biography, Nick Shakespeare shows that Fleming was almost as mysterious and adventuresome as his James Bond.  He sought to "live a complete life," which led him to travel the World constantly, have an incredible career in British Naval Intelligence, participates in some of the most significant, most important moments of his time, and know everyone of power and wealth in the World.  It was a fantastic life - one defined by his Bond novels, of which he only spent the final twelve years writing. 

The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the United States, and the Middle East 1989 - 2003 by Steve Coll (Penguin Press, 2024, 556 pages)

We are now entering, rightly, the phase where historians and policymakers can begin to look back and examine the Iraq War. Why did we go in? Why was the intelligence so off? And, as Steve Coll does brilliantly in this new book, why did Saddam Hussein risk (and ultimately lose) everything by giving the false impression he had hidden stocks of weapons of mass destruction? Coll goes deep, looking at not just the U.S. side but the Iraqi side, the Iraqi generals, scientists, and other people of power who sat by and played into this tragic facade that ended up destroying Hussein's long reign of power, plunging the country into war, and forever changing the future of Iraq.

The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, The Cold War, and the World on the Brink by William Inboden (Dutton Press, 2022, 608 pages)

Having served in the Reagan White House, I love to read good, well-researched books on what was actually going on while I was there (I started there when I was 22 years old and left when I was 25). Inboden writes an excellent history of how Reagan and his team successfully ended the Cold War and helped expand democracy and free trade globally. But it was Reagan's determination and focus on defeating the Soviet Union - the Evil Empire - that made it all happen. This is a great read. 

Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance by Michael Sobolik (Naval Institute Press, 2024, 218 pages)

Chinese President Xi Jinping's "project of the century" - the Belt & Road Initiative - is one of the most significant geopolitical gambits in recent memory, leveraging China's investments for political, economic, and military purposes around the World. Reaching around the World - from Asia to Africa to Latin America - China firmly set its grand strategy. So far, the U.S. and other Western and Asian democracies have not put up a comprehensive counter-strategy. Sobolik explains the Belt and Road efforts and offers an intelligent blueprint for the United States to counter it by playing off the one core weakness China has exposed to their plan: imperial overreach. 

The Global Week Ahead

May 26 - June 2, 2024

While it will be a quiet week in the US with the Memorial Day holiday and the official beginning of Summer, it will be a hectic week worldwide.  Markets will be watching a number of major events this week, particularly the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral meeting in Seoul, South Korea.  The leaders of the three nations are meeting together for the first time since 2019.  Tensions between the three nations have increased in recent years as Japan and South Korea have grown closer to the US in a bid to better defend themselves against the growing Chinese presence in the region as well as North Korea’s enhanced missile capability and growing belligerence toward them.  China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner and while no breakthroughs are expected, is part of a new effort to reduce those tensions and maintain strong economic relations. 

Markets will be watching as two significant elections are held this week and one massive election moves into its final stage. First, in Mexico, voters will choose a new president. Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, an ally of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is expected to win, making her Mexico’s first woman president. Markets are watching this election closely as Sheinbaum is expected to continue AMLO’s populist economic policies, which have often clashed with business interests in the country.

Second, South Africa holds presidential and parliamentary elections. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term that will keep him in office until 2029. South Africa, a member of the BRICS, has grown closer to Russia and China in recent years and more hostile to the US and other Western countries.  Recall it was the South African government who filed the case charging Israel with committing genocide against Palestinians in the International Court of Justice while claiming neutrality in the Ukrainian War while increasing trade and conducting joint naval drills last year with Russia and China.

India moves to the seventh and final stage of its six-week national elections. More than 970 million people were eligible to vote.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are expected to retain power and likely expand it in the country’s 543-seat parliament.  But expectations for a sweeping BJP electoral super-majority win are now being tempered as polling suggests opposition parties may have done somewhat better than expected.  The final results will be announced on June 4.  The final stage comes one day after India announces GDP figures on Friday which are expected to be at least 8 percent for Q1.

There will be a flurry of activity in Europe this week, with significant meetings and visits. EU and NATO foreign ministers will be meeting to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Gaza, underscoring the importance of these geopolitical hotspots. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron will make a State Visit to Germany – the first state visit of a French President to Germany in 24 years. This extraordinary visit, which will also include a joint meeting of the French and German cabinets, aims to address a long list of issues and bring the two nations closer together. The strained relations between the two countries over energy, economics, and other issues in recent years make this visit particularly significant.

It will not be all quiet in the US this week. On Tuesday, closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump begin in New York. The Ohio State Legislature has been called back into a special session to vote on a bill allowing President Biden to be added to the November ballot. Due to a glitch in Ohio law and the timing of the Democratic Presidential Convention in August, Biden is currently not on the ballot. The legislature failed to correct this before they went out of session last week, forcing Governor Mike DeWine to call them back. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking closely at important inflation data from the US (including the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), Europe, Japan, and China. In particular, Germany will release its May CPIs on Wednesday, while Italy, France, and the Eurozone will release CPIs on Friday. The Federal Reserve will release the latest Beige Book, and the European Central Bank will release the important consumer expectations survey.  

Below are the rest of the significant political events and economic reports we are watching this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Antigua and Barbuda to take part in the fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States. He will first attend the High-Level Closing Session of the Small Island Developing State Business Network.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Former President Trump will address the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in Washington, D.C.  Independent Candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. addressed the Convention yesterday.  Both candidates are seeking the support and endorsement of the Party, and it is the first time the Party has allowed non-party candidates to address and appeal to the party.

• Today is Independence Day in Guyana, marking the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The leaders of China, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul, South Korea, through May 27 for their first trilateral summit since 2019.  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will discuss mutual trade and security issues.  It is the first time the trilateral has been held since 2019.  Japan and South Korea both are both major trading partners with China but with the two nations growing closer to the US, tensions have increased.

• Japan's Shizuoka prefecture will hold a gubernatorial election, which will serve as an indicator of the prospects of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the country's next general election.

• Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day visit to Uzbekistan.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Spain. 

• French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Germany for a three-day state visit through May 28.  It is the first state visit by a French leader in 24 years.  According to the German and French governments, "find points of convergence between France and Germany on subjects of the future like technology, innovation, artificial intelligence."

• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda faces a runoff election in his bid for a second term against Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, a rematch of the 2019 elections

• President of the European Council Charles Michel may meet with the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority (TBC).

• Georgia celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day it gained its freedom from Russia in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 27, 2024

Global

• The World Health Organization (WHO) will hold its  77th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland. The organization is seeking a final agreement on a global pandemic treaty to deal with any future pandemic.

• The UN’s fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States is taking place in Antigua and Barbuda, organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS).

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the opening ceremony of the Conference, where he will reiterate the UN’s support for the aspirations of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – from halting and mitigating the impacts of the climate crisis to building resilient economies and fostering safe, healthy and prosperous societies. He will also call on the international community to support SIDS in the challenges they face and will underscore that SIDS is a test case for climate justice and financial justice.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is out of session this week in honor of the Memorial Day holiday. Banks and financial markets are closed.

• Peru will host a meeting of senior finance officials for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Urubamba, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in policy panel discussion on “The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Policy Instruments" before the 2024 Bank of Japan - Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference in Tokyo, Japan.

• Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (April)/ CFIB Business Barometer

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 2024 BOJ-IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, in Tokyo.  Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will also give a speech.

• Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

• Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (May)

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• As announced last week, Norway, Ireland, and Spain formally recognize a State of Palestine.

• Cabinets of France and Germany for joint talks chaired by Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron in Berlin, Germany.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through May 28.  The Foreign Affairs Ministers are expected to discuss the Russian aggression against Ukraine after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, who is foreseen to join the beginning of the meeting via videoconference to provide updates on the latest developments on the ground and Ukraine’s current priorities.  They will also discuss the situation in Georgia in the wake of the passing of the highly controversial “foreign agent” law as well as the situation in Venezuela and Venezuelan President Maduro’s ongoing interference in free and fair elections. They will also discuss the situation in Gaza.

• Georgia parliament set to adopt the highly controversial 'foreign influence' bill.

• IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is expected to visit Moscow for talks on Zaporizhzhia, the nuclear power plant in Ukraine that has been under attack by Russian forces.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss current crisis situation in the agricultural sector. The Council will follow up on the responses that have already been provided and those that are currently envisaged, while also focusing on the future of crisis management.

• The Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region – Brussels Eight Conference will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• In the UK, it is the Spring Bank holiday. Financial Markets are closed.

• European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech on "Inflation in the Eurozone" at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) in Dublin, Ireland.

• Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The African Development Bank holds its annual meeting in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana Interest Rate Decision

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

• Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Global

• UN Secretary General António Gutteres Secretary-General will take part in the High-Level Meeting on Resource Mobilization for Small Island Developing States in Antigua.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The role of women and young people.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Financial Information Forum of central banks of Latin America and the Caribbean will meet in Mexico City, Mexico.

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Moldova for meetings with President Maia Sandu to discuss Moldova’s progress on EU accession and energy security.

• Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has called a Special Session of the State Legislature to deal with a bill that will put President Biden on the state’s November ballot.  The legislature failed to pass the bill last week before adjourning. 

• Closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump will begin in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will also speak and host the event.

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak and participates in panel before the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

• Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (April)

• Canada PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)

• USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann travels to Indonesia for talks with President Joko Widodo about next steps for the nation’s entry into the OECD.  Indonesia was granted accession status to the 38-member organization in February 2024.  Indonesia hopes to complete the accession process within the next 2 to 3 years, thus making the country more attractive to foreign investment.

  The SEMICON Southeast Asia 2024 trade show begins in Kuala Lumpur.  The three-day event brings together thousands of electronics companies from China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US.Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Retail Sales MoM Prel (April)

• Malaysia PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.  The EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on the role of the green transition in Europe’s competitiveness: challenges and opportunities.

• Today marks the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

• ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

• European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at the 2024 BOJ-IMES conference on "Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy Challenges - Lessons Learned and Going Forward" in Tokyo, Japan.

• Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

• Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

• France Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)

• Ireland Retail Sales (April)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (April)

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Ethiopia, marking the day when the Derg – the dictatorial reign of Mengistu Hailie Marian, ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Global

• The Artic Congress 2024 is held through June 3 in Bodø, Norway.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in roundtable with local leaders to hear about business conditions and municipal and community services in New York.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated conversation on “Economic Outlook and Leadership" before the American Economic Association Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education in Atlanta, Georgia.

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

• Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is released/USA MBA Purchase Index (May/24)/ Redbook (May/25)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/24)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ Construction Work Done QoQ (Q1)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech to local leaders in Sapporo, Japan.

• Japan Consumer Confidence (May)

• Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

• Singapore Export & Import Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

• India M3 Money Supply (May/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)

• France Consumer Confidence (May)

• Spain Retail Sales (April)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

• Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

• Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

• Greece Total Credit (April)

• Russia Industrial Production (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Morocco will host the GITEX Africa conference in Marrakech through May 31, and attendees will discuss Africa's prospects in the fields of artificial intelligence and digital growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Balance of Trade (April)

• Jordan Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa holds presidential elections and elections for the 400-member National Assembly. They will also vote on nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Global

• The UN the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Assistant Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), and on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya [SCR 2292]. This will be followed with a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria). In the afternoon, a briefing at the Council is expected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi.

• The AI for Good Summit will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organizations to discuss how to regulate AI.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to the Czech Republic for meetings with Foreign Minister Jan Lipavasky.  He will also participate in an informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before hybrid Signature Luncheon event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the Borderplex Alliance Distinguished Speaker Series in El Paso, Texas.

• Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)

• Canada Current Account (Q1)/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)

• USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May)/25/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/18)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/24)

• Chile Unemployment Rate (April)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong national security courts is expected to hand down a final verdict on the case of 47 activists and former lawmakers.

• The 10th China-Arab States Cooperation Forum is held in Beijing.

• Vanuatu holds a constitutional referendum. Voters will be asked whether they approve of several proposed amendments to the constitution regarding the regulation of political parties and motions of no confidence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Building Permits (April)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Building Permits MoM Prel (April)/ Building Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private House Approvals MoM Prel (April)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/25)

• Philippines PPI (April)

• Singapore Bank Lending (April)

• Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The UK Parliament will be dissolved in advance of the general election in July.

• Spain’s Parliament will vote on an amnesty bill for Calatagan separatists.

• There will be an informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Prague, Czechia.  

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss trade and competitiveness and the future of EU trade policy, the state of play of trade and investment relations between the EU and Africa, and the follow-up to the 13th World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference (MC13).

• The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels. Energy ministers will approve conclusions on sustainable electricity grid infrastructure, followed by a discussion on the future of REPowerEU.  They will also discuss the European Green Deal and how it can help transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy.  They will also discuss the final and updated national energy and climate plans submitted by member states, which are instrumental in achieving the Green Deal objectives and agreed EU-wide targets. They are also expected to formally adopt the decision on the withdrawal of the EU and Euratom from the Energy Charter Treaty, together with the decision on the position to be taken on behalf of the EU and Euratom in the upcoming Energy Charter Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank and a number of European financial markets and banks are closed for the Corpus Christi holiday.

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)

• Great Britain Car Production (April)

• Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech/ Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ KOF Leading Indicators (May)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (April)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

• Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Business Confidence (May)

• Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Economic Confidence Index (May)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)

• Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

• Greece PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

• Russia Unemployment Rate (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China.  bilateral relations between the two countries and opportunities for further cooperation and collaboration, especially in the economic, developmental, and cultural fields.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The World Bank’s board will meet to decide on Kenya’s funding under development policy financing, which would lead to the release of between $900 million and $1.2 billion for budget support.Nothing significant to report.

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ PPI (April)/ Budget Balance (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 31, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will participate in the International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore.  He is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun.  It will be the first meeting between the two defense leaders, and they are expected to discuss tensions with Taiwan and other security issues in the Indo-Pacific.  Austin will then travel on to Cambodia for meetings with senior officials and then to France to mark the 80th Anniversary of D-Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give commencement speech at Augusta Technical College, in Augusta, Texas.

• Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

• Canada GDP (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

• USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)

• Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

• Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (April)

• Brazil Balance of Trade (May)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The Dialogue has become one of the most important independent forums for the exchange of views by international security policy decision-makers. Besides the host nation, countries that have participated in the dialogue have included most Asian countries, as well as those from North America and Europe.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

• Australia Private Sector Credit (April)/ Commodity Prices (May)

• China NBS General PMI (May)

• Thailand Industrial Production (April)

• Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (May)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

• Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption & Investment (April)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

• India Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO’s “Steadfast Defender 24” military exercise concludes.  The largest NATO military exercise held since the end of the Cold War began in January.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ PPI (April)

• Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Import Prices (April)

• Hungary Balance of Trade Final (March)/ PPI (April)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (April)

• Turkey GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ Financial Stability Report

• Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)/ New Car Registrations (May)

• Spain Current Account (March)

• Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)

• Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May)/ CPI Flash (May)

• Greece Retail Sales (March)

• Ireland Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Q1)/ Construction Output YoY (Q1)

• Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

• Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

• Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, June 1, 2024

Global

• The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss production quotas.

• South Korea takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is inaugurated for a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India begins the 7th round of voting.

• Today is Independence Day in Samoa, marking the day in 1962 when the country gained independence from New Zealand.

 significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Iceland holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Kenya celebrates Madaraka Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy’s elections.  Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Serbia reruns Belgrade’s December elections. The rerun is a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.

• Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 28 - 31, 2024

Summer has arrived in Washington with the celebration of Memorial Day on Monday. Congress is out of session for the week, and there are no significant regulatory meetings or speeches (aside from CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam and Commissioners Kristen Johnson and Caroline Pham giving speeches at the IOSCO meeting in Athens, Greece.

Last week in Washington's regulatory world was another busy one. The House of Representatives passed an anti-CBDC bill that would stop the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency. We do not see the Senate taking up the bill. Still, the issue won't disappear as we expect it to be a constant secondary political issue on the campaign trail (we get questions about the chances of the Fed moving on launching a CBDC constantly in talks we give around the country – there is a lot of concern out there about it).  

The House also passed a crypto trading regulatory bill sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC). Seen as a legacy-defining moment for McHenry, the bill got seventy-one Democrats to join with 208 Republicans to pass it. Among the Democrats who voted for it were former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) – – despite the strong opposition of SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Also last week, McHenry (R-NC) asked FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to testify on June 12 on misconduct allegations at the agency. McHenry wrote a letter to Gruenberg saying, "Republican and Democratic members alike noted an inability to fully understand your responses relate to both the toxic workplace culture at the FDIC and your leadership at the agency."  

The pressure on FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg to step down is intensifying, with calls for his immediate resignation even before a successor is nominated and confirmed by the Senate. The situation may have worsened for Gruenberg with the release of a memo from the FDIC Inspector General, which reported allegations of misconduct involving senior officials that were not promptly disclosed to her office. This development further underscores the gravity of the misconduct allegations at the agency.  

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out for the week in observance of Memorial Day.  However, the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Economic Policy Subcommittee (chaired by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will hold a field hearing in Boston, Massachusetts, entitled "The Economic and Health Impacts of Threats to Reproductive Rights."

House of Representatives

• The House is out for the week in observance of Memorial Day.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday, May 28, 1:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.

• Tuesday, May 28, TBD – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak a the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, May 27, 11:00 a.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a Regulatory Workshop - “Retail Investor Protection in a Digital World: Finfluencers, Gamification and the Evolving Trading Landscape” at the IOSCO Annual Meeting in Athens, Greece.

• Monday, May 27, 4:00 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a Regulatory Workshop titled “New SupTech: Exchange of Experiences” at the 49th Annual Meeting of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in Athens, Greece.

• Wednesday, May 29, 1:00 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CCP Global Annual General Meeting 2024 in Athens, Greece.

• Wednesday, May 29, 2:45 p.m. Athens Greece Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will keynote at the HCMC Public Conference “Climate in the Center of Economy” in Athens, Greece.

• Wednesday, May 29, 3:45 p.m. Athens, Greece Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “Digital Finance, Fintech and Crypto Assets: Supervision Challenges and Experiences Including Issues relating to Sustainability” at the Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC) Public Conference at the IOSCO Annual Meeting in Athens, Greece.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Wednesday, May 29 – 30 – The OCC hosts Project REACh Financial Inclusion Summit in Washington, D.C.  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will speak.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday/Tuesday, May 27 – 28 – The Institute for International Finance holds their IIF-Amazon Web Services-South East Asian Central Banks Centre Financial Services and Cloud Summit in Kuala Lumpur.

• Monday, May 27, 3:00 a.m. EDT – The Institute for International Finance holds its IIF ASEAN and China Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Friday, May 30, 2:30 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “Understanding the new dynamics of agri-food trade: Perspectives from Pascal Lamay.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 24 - 27, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

European Union Elections 2024

• European Parliament Elections 2024: What Is at Stake?    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy/ZBW/CEPS

  In June 2024, EU citizens will vote in the European Parliament elections – two years into Russia’s war in Ukraine and on European values, after the COVID-19 pandemic and the finalization of Brexit, and with the possibility of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election later this year. In a turbulent geopolitical environment, the European Parliament elections will reshape the political landscape in Brussels, where traditional parties are being challenged and an increasing tilt towards right-wing governance is unmistakable. The current European Commission has adopted several major legislative initiatives, but a new Commission may set new priorities and take a different political direction. In the lead-up to the elections, this Forum focuses on some of the issues that will take center stage for voters and define the next phase of European politics.

• EU Election 2024: Complete Guide to News, Polls, and Key Players   Politico EU

  The 2024 European Parliamentary elections are going to be held from June 6 – 9.  It is the first European Parliamentary election since Brexit (of which the UK’s previous seats were distributed to other countries)and will elect 720 members of the European Parliament to choose the European Commission President and help to decide the makeup of the European Commission going forward.  This election is expected to be one of the more contentious as a number of far-right parties have emerged as ahead in polls.  This site carries all the latest polls and analysis of what is going on election-wise.

• Winds of Change: The EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election   European Council on Foreign Relations

  The next European Commission and Parliament are likely to place security and competitiveness at the center of their quest for a more geopolitical Europe.  With concerns about the costs of the green transition, growing trade tensions between the US and China, and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU will probably find it much harder to make further progress on climate action over the next five years. These geopolitical developments – and the way the EU responds to them – will have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s trade and technology decisions, fossil fuel phase-out, and climate diplomacy. The case for climate action remains clear, including its role in European security and competitiveness. In this challenging context, climate progressives will have to deploy compelling narratives, strategic resourcing, and diplomatic engagement to advance the best possible climate agenda during the EU’s next institutional cycle.
  

• The Front-Runners for the Next European Commission   Politico EU

  The European Commission’s top jobs will all soon be up for grabs again after next month’s European election. Which country will get the all-powerful trade commissioner job and oversee the EU’s impending trade war with China? Will the Poles secure a newly created defense portfolio to square up to their arch-rivals, the Russians? And who will get to police U.S. tech giants like Apple and Google as Europe’s next competition chief? Even before the June 6-9 election, maneuvering is underway to net the prize slots. Each of the EU’s 27 countries gets a commissioner job in the highly political post-election carve-up, but there’s a tooth-and-nail fight to determine who gets what. Trade and competition are the blue-ribbon portfolios with genuine power; those involving sport, education, and multilingualism are the kiss of death.   

India

• India’s Engagement with the Middle East Reflects New Delhi’s Changing Worldview   War on the Rocks

  In the early 1990s, India responded to the end of the Cold War with a new “Look East” policy, which it subsequently rebranded as “Act East” in 2014. Today, India has developed a “Think West” policy focused on what those in the West call the Middle East. So which way is India thinking, looking, and acting today?

Africa

• Rethinking US Africa Policy Amid Changing Geopolitical Realities   Texas National Security Review

  Since 2020, Africa has seen more political unrest, violent extremism, and democratic reversals than any other region in the world. A wave of coups has washed across the Sahel and West Africa, leaving authoritarians in power in numerous countries. In addition, the continent has served as a stage for the escalating great-power competition between China, Russia, and the United States. U.S. engagement with Africa has long been deprioritized in Washington, with successive administrations devoting scant attention and resources to advancing democracy and resolving conflicts. Thus far, the Biden administration has maintained this pattern, which reflects the persistent tension between an interests-based and values-based U.S. foreign policy. Nevertheless, there are a few actions the United States can take to reinvigorate democracy and stabilize the region, such as emphasizing development and diplomacy over military responses and stepping up cooperation with allies and partners to reduce the influence of China and Russia.

Political Economy

• Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism    American Journal of Political Science

  Governments have repeatedly adjusted fiscal policy in recent decades. We examine the political effects of these adjustments in Europe since the 1990s using both district-level election outcomes and individual-level voting data. We expect austerity to increase populist votes, but only among economically vulnerable voters, who are hit the hardest by austerity. We identify economically vulnerable regions as those with a high share of low-skilled workers, workers in manufacturing, and in jobs with a high routine-task intensity. The
  analysis of district-level elections demonstrates that austerity increases support for populist parties in economically vulnerable regions,  but has little effect in less vulnerable regions. The individual-level analysis confirms these findings. Our results suggest that the success of populist parties hinges on the government’s failure to protect the losers of structural economic change. The economic origins of populism are thus not purely external; the populist backlash is triggered by internal factors, notably public policies

• Social Security’s Financial Reality is Worse Than Reported   American Enterprise Institute

  The Social Security Trustees recently released their annual Report on the projected finances of the program. The media, advocates, and the Commissioner himself trumpeted that the Report had good news: The program’s finances have improved over the prior year, the projected Trust Fund exhaustion date had moved out a year to 2035, and the automatic benefit cuts upon insolvency were smaller, 17 percent instead of the 20 percent estimated in the prior year’s Report.  A closer look, however, reveals this optimism is misplaced.  The report fails to accurately reflect long-term declines in fertility rates. When the trend toward lower fertility is incorporated accurately in future Reports, the picture of the program’s finances will look much worse, and therefore, the realistic cost of needed reforms will rise.

• Consulting Firms Have Stumbled Into a Geopolitical Minefield   Foreign Policy

  Not so long ago, consultancies and other information brokers could work easily with different clients in different countries. Just as they talked to competing firms, they advised competing governments. But what may have seemed banal then may now be depicted as smoking gun evidence that companies are helping the enemy. For decades, business leaders assumed that globalization meant market expansion. Their big worry was gaining and keeping market share and competing with their rivals. Now, they are being thrown unprepared into a world where globalization means geopolitical risk—and information is the riskiest asset of all.

• How Do US Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies?   National Bureau of Economic Research

  China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffered a valuation loss afterward. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries benefiting from the boost or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity.

Global Week Ahead

Memorial Day is a week from this Monday, traditionally seen as the beginning of Summer in the US. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is roughly on the same seasonal scheduling, and we suspect we are looking forward to (hopefully) a peaceful and somewhat relaxing summer. But before we get to our beach vacations or mountain hideaways for a break, plenty is going on geopolitically.  

First, as we got ready to publish this note, news broke that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other senior Iranian officials had gone down in a helicopter crash in the northwest sector of Iran. The video footage of the rescue effort showed a dense fog hanging over the mountainous terrain, and no one had found the wreckage yet, nor had we known who was still alive.  

However, the impact of any Iranian leadership will likely worry the markets. We would note, however, that Raisi is not the ultimate leader – Supreme Leader Khamenei is – and the idea of any internal struggles or regional risk developing from the crash is unlikely for many reasons (which we would be more than happy to discuss if you want separately).

Also, this week, Taiwan inaugurates a new president on Monday. Lai Ching-te is replacing Tsai Ing-wen, and Lai’s inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China. Lai’s cabinet choices and his experience in and around the government suggest a status quo relationship with Beijing going forward (not great, but hopefully not getting more inflamed).

Meanwhile, later this week, the Prime Ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea will gather for the first time since 2019 for trilateral meetings in Seoul, South Korea. China—which is Japan’s and South Korea’s largest trading partner—will likely warn the two countries about their growing security and trade engagement with the US. However, a good portion of the talks will be on mutual concerns and interests, such as climate change, the situation in North Korea, and trade.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, G7 finance ministers and central bank heads will gather in Italy later this week to discuss the global economic outlook and the economic impact of the Russian War on Ukraine. Watch for further decisions on whether to seize Russian assets held in the West to fund the Ukrainian defense efforts.  

Regarding economic data releases this week, the Federal Reserve releases its meeting minutes on Wednesday. Staying in the US, the University of Michigan Survey comes out on Friday, and durable goods orders are also available. 

In Europe, markets will watch the UK inflation data report, the German PPI report, and Germany’s Q1 GDP figures.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI on Friday, while China provides its monthly decision on its loan prime rate. Finally, central bank monetary meetings will be held in Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey this week. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN’s 10th World Water Forum, under the theme ‘Water for Shared Prosperity’, will take play 18-25 May in Bali, Indonesia. Heads of state, heads of international organizations, high level government officials, experts, scholars, entrepreneurs and economists from all over the world will share their knowledges, experiences, and practices regarding a wide range of topics related to water.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections.  Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

·       President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony.  Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty, and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

·       U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel through May 19.

·       Mexican opposition supporters will march in Mexico City and other major cities across the country to support democracy and partially to support presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

·       The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds their 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.  A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Truck drivers in South Africa will go on strike across the country to protest the employment of foreign nationals within the local logistics industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

  Monday, May 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, it is expected to hold a vote on a draft resolution on non-proliferation.

·       The UN’s Global Transparency Forum is set to take place from 20 to 21 May 2024 at the United Nations University in Tokyo, Japan. The forum will discuss the pivotal role of transparency in climate action as required under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) of the Paris Agreement. The forum is organized by the Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency - Global Support Programme (CBIT-GSP), with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), UNDP Climate Promise and it is hosted by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Later that day, at 6:00 p.m. he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

·       US Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York jointly host the annual International Roles of the US Dollar conference today and tomorrow in Washington. Speakers include Fed governor Christopher Waller.

·       The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.  

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Chile Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan holds the presidential inauguration ceremonies for Lai Ching-te who is replacing Tsai Ing-wen.  It also starts an unprecedented third-term in power for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).  Lai's inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China.

·       Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in Tokyo for a four-day official visit, accompanied by Saudi business leaders for talks with Japanese companies on investments and climate technology co-operation.

·       India begins its 5th phase of elections, Lok Sabha.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Financial markets closed for the fifth phase of the parliamentary elections.

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

·       Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's term will end.  He then becomes the “acting” president has elections have been suspended due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and Austria are closed for Whi Monday (The day after Pentecost holiday).

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent speaks at the New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism workshop in London.

·       Italy Construction Output (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q1)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit (March)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate (Q4)

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict: 25th Anniversary of SCR 1265 (1999).

·       The UN’s Trade and Development Organization hosts the inaugural Global Supply Chain Forum in Bridgetown, Barbados.

·       The OECD’s Forum on Responsible Mineral Supply Chains will be held through May 24 in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival begins and runs through May 23 in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks at 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       USA Redbook (May/18/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/17)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indo-Pacific Business Forum begins in Manila.  Co-hosted by the US and the Philippines, the event allows networking and discussions about critical infrastructure needs in the region. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (April)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in the AI Seoul Summit, building on the Bletchley Declaration and the discussions of the Summit hosted by the UK last year.

·       EU foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels, Belgium, where Spain, Ireland and others are expected to recognize the state of Palestine. 

·       The 8th EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will be held in Brussels.   The meeting is considered particularly important as Moldova has increasingly become a focus for Russian interference with rising risk of further destabilization.  There is a break-away providence of Moldova – Transnistria – which has sworn their alliance to Moscow.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Minister are expected to discuss Ukraine, security and defense issues, general trade and investment competitiveness, and the next institutional EU cycle.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunication, and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels to discuss collaborative approach for consistent implementation of the recently adopted legislation in the digital field. The Council will also approve conclusions on the future of EU’s digital policy and on the future of cybersecurity. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss the subject of promoting digital skills for an inclusive digital transformation and inclusion. Finally, as an item without discussion, the Council is expected to adopt the artificial intelligence act.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market & Industry) meets in Brussels. The ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on “A competitive European industry driving our green, digital and resilient industrial future”.

·       German Economy Minister Robert Habeck attends the start of the main construction phase of NeuConnect, the first direct power link between Germany and the U.K., in Wilhemshaven, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a lecture in honor of London School of Economics Charles Goodhart, hosted by the Financial Markets Group.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the London City Week Conference entitled “Balancing the productivity opportunities of financial technology and AI against the potential risks” in London.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills gives a speech at the London City Week Conference in London.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Current Account (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Construction Output (March)

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May

·       Slovenia PPI (April)

·       Italy Current Account (March)

·       Hungary Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit Growth  (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Energy Agency’s annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency will take place in Nairobi through May 22.  This is the first time the Conference has been held in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to go into consultations on the 1718 Committee (this goes to UN sanctions on North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development hosts a conference on economic and trade policies in Latin America in Paris, France at the OECD headquarters.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes published, MBA Purchase Index (May/17)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/17)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Machinery Orders (March)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Ministers of Poland, France, and Germany – the “Weimar Triangle” – will meet in Thuringia, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at an ESMA online event focused on the launch of its position paper on the effectiveness of capital markets in the EU.

·       Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the European Commission technical workshop in Brussels on macroprudential policies for non-bank financial intermediation.

·       The ECB Governing Council holds a retreat hosted by the Bank of Ireland.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI Input & Output (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Russia PPI (April)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Strengthening the role of the African state in addressing global security and development challenges.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden hosts Kenyan President William Ruto to celebrate 60 years of diplomatic relations.  Talks between the two leaders are expected to focus on clean energy, mutual trade and a possible free trade agreement, and security concerns in Africa.

·       US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen awarded honorary doctorate by Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

·       Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Economic Activity (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate  (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/18)/ S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ New Home Sales (April)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (May)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (March)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nikkei hosts the  29th Future of Asia Forum in Tokyo through May 24. This year's main theme is "Asian leadership in an uncertain world." Political leaders set to attend the two-day event include Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai and Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales (Q1)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/18)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       India HSBC Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Candidates vying to head next European Commission Presidency hold debate in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (May)

·       France HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       Germany HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)/ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q1)

·       Poland Retail Sales (April)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Slovakia Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 24, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/24)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in East Timor, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session opens in Sofia, Bulgaria.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference in Bonn, Germany.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, celebrating the establishment of a unitary government in 1972 and doing away with the federal system that had been in place.

·       Today is Independence Day in Eritrea, celebrating the day in 1991 when the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front moved in the capital of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war with Ethiopia. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Revolution Day in Argentina. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India begins its sixth phase of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its freedom from the United Kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when they gained their independence from the United Kingdom.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Prime Ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are scheduled to hold meetings today and through tomorrow in Seoul, South Korea.  China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner, and all three nations have concerns over North Korea’s behavior and posture.  The meetings will also focus on climate change and other areas of mutual concern. 

·       Cambodia holds provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emanual Macron begins an official state visit to Germany.

·       Lithuania holds presidential election run-off votes.

·       Today is Independence Day in Georgia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech entitled "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week

May 20 - 24, 2024

This coming Monday is Memorial Day, the traditional beginning of Summer in Washington and the rest of the US. In advance of the three-day holiday, regulators are engaging in several meetings and speaking events. Of particular note, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is giving two important speeches this week on regulation while the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is holding its 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.  

Also this week, the Investment Company Institute is holding its annual meeting in Washington, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak and participate in a fireside chat to discuss issues of concern to the mutual fund industry. 

Washington is still talking about the ongoing crisis at the FDIC in the wake of the independent report implicating FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg for bullying and inappropriate behavior and tolerating bad behavior among senior managers. Gruenberg endured two grueling hearings before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee last week but seems to have survived as a number of Congressional Democrats came to his defense. Gruenberg continues to refuse to step down, but we believe the pressure will continue, and the situation will remain tense at the FDIC.

Also last week, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau had a big week, triumphantly winning a Supreme Court case (7-2 vote) upholding the agency's legitimacy and ability to bring regulations against payday lenders. This ends years of uncertainty about the future of the CFPB and has boosted CFPB Director Rohit Chopra's agenda, which focuses on credit card fees. "The CFPB will be able to forge ahead with our law enforcement work," Chopra told reporters after the decision was handed down.

Reviewing Congress last week, the House Financial Services Committee moved several pieces of legislation for the full House of Representatives to vote on in the coming weeks. One is legislation making fewer banks subject to key regulations such as the Volcker Rule while scrutinizing the Federal Reserve's bank merger, stress testing, and discount processes. Another bill they passed would direct the SEC to conduct cost-benefit analyses of its rules and review them every five years.

Both bills have little chance of advancing once they pass the House and are sent to the Senate Banking Committee.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing entitled “Child Savings Accounts and Other Tax-Advantaged Accounts Benefitting American Children.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Protecting Consumers' Pocketbooks: Lowering Food Prices and Combatting Corporate Price Gouging and Consolidation."

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "PHA (Public Housing Agencies) Oversight: How Scandals and Mismanagement Harm Residents and Taxpayers."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Sunday – Wednesday, May 19 – 22 – The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds its 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference.  A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

·       Monday, May 20, 7:45 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Later that day, at 6:00 p.m., he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

·       Monday, May 20, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.  

·       Monday, May 20, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Secondary and Capital Markets Conference, New York, N.Y.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 8:10 a.m.: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 8:45 a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will give the opening remarks at the 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 6:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate the "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Monday, May 20, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 2024 Financial Markets Conference, Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       Thursday, May 23, 2:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

·       Friday, May 24, 9:35 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time. 

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, May 23, 8:30 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Investment Company Institute’s 2024 Leadership Summit in Washington, DC.

·       Thursday, May 24, 11:00 a.m. – Thursday at 11:00 a.m., SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal and other division officials will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum West 2024 conference.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, May 20, 11:00 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak on a panel discussing international financial regulation at City Week 2024.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 11:00 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a featured fireside chat on the CFTC’s role in regulating digital assets at City Week 2024.

·       Wednesday, May 22, 9:10 a.m. London Time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a keynote interview at the Financial Times’ Moral Money Summit.

FINRA

 ·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Wednesday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – the NCUA Board holds an open meeting.  You can find the agenda HERE.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Monday, May 20, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a closed meeting.

·       Wednesday, May 23, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an Open Meeting.

·       Wednesday, May 23, 2:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an event entitled “Supporting Older Adults to Fight Against Fraud”

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday  – Wednesday, May 21 – 23 – The Investment Company Institute holds the 2024 Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.  House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, May 21, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.  

·       Tuesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion entitled “Powering US prosperity and competitiveness through place-based investment”.  Alejandra Castillo, the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, will speak.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 12:30 p.m. – SIFMA holds a Department of Labor Fiduciary Rule Implementation Workshop.

·       Tuesday, May 21, 2:30 p.m. – The R Street Institute holds a discussion entitled “Insurance Fraud: the 300 Billion Dollar Crime.”

·       Tuesday, May 21, 3:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a virtual discussion entitled “Would Proposed Antitrust Changes Help or Harm Startups and Small Business?”

·       Tuesday, May 22, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA holds their latest webinar on U.S. – China relations entitled “U.S. – China Relations: Technology National Security, and Financial Services.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online discussion entitled “IIF Datatalk: Bigtech, Platforms, and Financial Services.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 1:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds an in-person/virtual event entitled “The Federal Reserve and Financial Stability Risk.”  

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 17 - 19, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Critical Minerals

• Mineral Demands for Resilient Semiconductor Supply Chains CSIS

  The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the principal strategic competitor of the United States. In addition to antagonism in other domains, this rivalry entails escalating technological competition. No country is technologically self-sufficient, but the United States’ reliance on China’s considerable market share in the critical minerals industry for semiconductor supply chains creates a dependency that turns a trade imbalance into a potential national security threat. Chips are ubiquitous in all modern technology, and their relevance and worth will only expand in the coming years. The countries that are able to secure their own supply chains for critical technologies will be in a position to write the rules of global economic governance for years to come.

  Americas

• The Woman Inheriting AMLO’s Revolution Foreign Policy

  Most Mexicans began to seriously entertain the idea that Claudia Sheinbaum could be Mexico’s first female president in December 2022, when her trademark slicked-back ponytail began to appear on billboards across the country. Paid for by legislators in Sheinbaum’s party, Morena, the signage was intended to make the former climate scientist and then-Mexico City mayor known nationwide.
  

• Mexico’s Post-Election Fiscal Reality Check   Americas Quarterly

  Mexico is three weeks away from one of its most consequential elections in recent history. Much is at play on June 2, as the outcome of this vote is likely to have economic and political implications that will shape the nation’s future for decades. Why is there so much at stake? From an optimistic perspective, the opportunity nearshoring brings to the country is likely to become more evident in the next six years, but only if the new administration manages to tackle the significant bottlenecks Mexico still faces in broad areas such as energy, infrastructure, security, water, human capital, and its regulatory environment. From a less upbeat vantage point, Mexico’s democracy could be at risk if the election results end up in a landslide.  Notwithstanding the result, no matter who wins the presidential race, the post-June 2 party will likely be short, as the current list of challenges—and inherent risks—the next president will face is probably the most fearsome in 25 years.
  

• War Has Changed. We Didn’t.  That Reality Will Cost Us  Hudson Institute’s Arsenal of Democracy Podcast

  War is rapidly changing. Countries like China are already moving force structure and planning toward a new type of conflict. Meanwhile, the United States overspends and delays the production of systems like aircraft carriers that could soon fall into the category of “a weapon that you can’t afford to lose.” The Sagamore Institute’s Dr. Jerry Hendrix joins the show to explain how the US and its industrial base can change course to prepare for future conflicts before a dangerous “comeuppance” shocks us into action.  This episode features Dr. Jerry Hendrix, a Senior Fellow at the Sagamore Institute.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Russia’s Murky Future”  The Foreign Affairs Interview Podcast

  The noted Russian scholar and biographer of Josef Stalin, Steven Kotkin,  gives a fascinating interview on what is going on inside Russia.  When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.

Australia

• Australia’s New Gas Strategy Makes for Flawed Foreign Policy The Interpreter

  The latest Australian federal budget, handed down on Tuesday night, pledges unprecedented support to making Australia a “renewable superpower”. Yet a new gas strategy that preceded it promises to keep Australia and its Asian energy partners tethered to this fossil fuel for decades. While fiscal commitments now favor Australia’s greener energy engagement, Canberra should wind back broader regulatory support to gas. This would quicken the timeframe in which Australia might provide for both the energy security needs of Asia and the climate security needs of the Pacific.

China

• China Has Gotten the Trade War it Deserves   The Atlantic

  A global trade war is starting, and China is at the center of it. A reckoning for Beijing’s economic model, which is designed to promote Chinese industry at the expense of the rest of the world, has long been coming. China’s trading partners have had enough. The result will be a wave of protectionism, with potentially dire consequences for both China and the global economy.

Global Financial Markets and Economics

• Emerging Threats to Financial Markets  RAND

  In early 2021, a freewheeling, freethinking group of investors on Reddit decided to flex some collective muscle. They plowed their money into GameStop, a video game retailer that several big hedge funds had bet against. The stock price shot up, some people made millions—and, to the delight of those on Reddit, the hedge funds had some very bad days.

Asymmetric Threats

• Contested Connectivity: Cyber Threats in the Asia-Pacific   International Institute for Strategic Studies

  Asia-Pacific countries are facing increasing numbers of state-backed hacking operations serving geopolitical and economic purposes. They are also getting better at conducting them. Domestic and foreign-policy ambitions are manifesting in the information space, where state-linked actors are contesting state adversaries, political opponents, and world views both overtly through activities such as defacement (hacking a target website and replacing its content with the hackers’ own message), and covertly, via disinformation operations. While basic cyber best practice is still out of reach for the least cyber-capable states, a couple of regional states could be considered amongst the most cyber capable globally. Forging a greater range of international partnerships between governments and industry is likely to boost the region’s resilience in cyberspace. Political will and geopolitical alignments will likely shape how that unfolds.

Demographics

• Birth Dearth or Baby Boom?   American Enterprise Institute

  Writing in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Greg Ip and Janet Adamy explored the possibility that the world’s population may peak and begin to fall far sooner than demographers have previously projected: “The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep the population constant. It may have already happened. Fertility is falling almost everywhere for women across all levels of income, education, and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.”

• Addressing Demographic Headwinds in Japan: A Long-term Perspective OECD

  Japan faces serious demographic headwinds. Under current fertility, employment, and immigration rates, the population would fall by 45% by 2100 and employment by 52%. Given the challenges of a shrinking and ageing population, the government has pledged to “create a children-first economic society and reverse the birth rate decline”. One priority is to strengthen the weak financial position of youth, which leads many to delay or forgo marriage and children. Making it easier to combine paid work and family is also critical so that women are not forced to choose between a career and children.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 10 - 12, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• Mexico and the United States Need to Talk About China Now  Foreign Policy

  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is rarely shy about criticizing foreign governments—usually that of the United States or other Latin American nations. Yet in January, López Obrador published a video touting his “very good” relationship with the people and government of China during a meeting with Beijing’s ambassador to Mexico. This was no accident. The video came just one day after an explosive report by ProPublica on alleged narco money in López Obrador’s various presidential campaigns, a story that the Mexican president said was part of a media campaign against him by the U.S. government. His meeting with the Chinese ambassador was intended to send a message, but it was also part of a broader trend. During López Obrador’s sexenio, China’s political and economic activity in Mexico has grown significantly. With his successor taking office on Oct. 1, Mexico’s approach to relations with China could shift or continue on a path that is likely to increase tensions with Washington.

• The Wrath of Khan: How Antitrust Policy Can Undermine U.S. National Security  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  To give credit where it is due, today’s title comes from my colleague Jim Lewis, who is coauthor of a report CSIS released on May 3: “Beyond Economics: How U.S. Policies Can Undermine National Security Goals” This white paper describes a range of U.S. policies that appear to be at odds with our national security goals and makes six recommendations for reconciling the differences. The paper begins with an explanation of why technology, particularly critical and emerging technologies (CET), is essential to national security. Space does not permit repeating all of that here, but just think semiconductors, and you’ll get the picture. Our defense infrastructure depends on information and communications technology, and that is only going to become truer in the future.

• Colombia’s Uncertainty Is Sinking Investment and More   Americas Quarterly

  Rising interest rates and a corporate tax rate among the world’s highest help explain the massive drop in Colombia’s fixed investment—a 9% decline in real terms to represent only 17.8% of the nation’s GDP—but they are only part of the story. Increased economic and political uncertainty has also played a significant role as President Gustavo Petro faces a pivotal moment in his four-year term to get at least some of his key reforms approved by Congress.   To the increasing doubts stemming from the lengthy discussions of the structural reforms, the government has fanned more uncertainties by announcing controversial measures in strategic economic sectors while floating the idea of a new Constitution. All are having a compounded effect on both investment and Colombia’s growth prospects. On May 2, the OECD urged authorities to apply policies to revive investment while forecasting a meager GDP expansion of 1.2% for 2024.

• Investment in US factories has soared since the end of 2022  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Real business investment in manufacturing structures in the United States has risen sharply since the end of 2022. The amount of investment in this category in the first quarter of 2024 was about 80 percent higher than the amount at the end of 2022. “Industrial policy” legislation enacted in recent years likely helped fuel this sharp increase. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act, both enacted in 2022, provided large subsidies for the renewable energy and semiconductor industries. Although investment in manufacturing structures represents a relatively small part of overall US economic activity, the recent increases in this category have boosted annualized GDP growth by about ¼ percentage point since the end of 2022. Notwithstanding high interest rates, other types of US business investment have also increased. Altogether, private business fixed investment has contributed about ½ percentage point to annualized real GDP growth since the end of 2022.

• The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies  National Bureau of Economic Research

  This study begin by examining determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks (size of issuing country’s economy and financial markets, ability of the currency to hold value, and inertia). But understanding the determination of reserve holdings probably requires going beyond the aggregate numbers, instead observing individual central bank behavior, including characteristics of the holding country (bilateral trade with the issuing country, bilateral currency peg, and proxies for bilateral exposure to sanctions), in addition to the characteristics of the reserve currency issuer. On a currency-by-currency basis, US dollar holdings are somewhat well explained by several issuer characteristics; but the other currencies are less successfully explained. It may be that the results from currency-by-currency estimation are impaired by insufficient sample size. This consideration offers a motivation for pooling the data across the major currencies and imposing the constraints that reserve holdings are determined in the same way for each currency. In this setting, most economic determinants enter with significance: economic size as measured by GDP, size of financial markets as measured by foreign exchange turnover, bilateral currency peg, and bilateral trade share. However, geopolitical variables (bilateral alliance, bilateral sanctions) usually do not enter with significance.

• Will the Dollar Ever Weaken?   Christopher Smart/OMFIF

  It goes up when things are good and it goes up when things are bad, so it’s a fair question to ask under what circumstances the US currency ever actually goes down. When everyone seems to accept that the Federal Funds rate will stay higher for longer, just what will it take to reverse an appreciation trend that is beginning to look more secular than cyclical? The short answer is that there are lots of things that could reverse the current trend. It’s just that very few of them seem likely anytime soon.

• Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates  Federal Reserve Board

  With the issuance of U.S. Treasury debt having risen substantially in recent years, the effect of government debt issuance on longer-term interest rates has come under renewed attention.  While government debt can affect economic outcomes in a variety of ways, its effect on interest rates is an important determinant of the consumption and savings decisions of households as well as the investment decisions of firms and hence of macroeconomic activity.  In this note, we study the role of expectations formation in influencing the relationship between government debt and longer-term interest rates.  While it is common to analyze the effects of government debt on interest rates in a dynamic setting under the assumption of full information, rational expectations, the realism of this assumption is questionable.  In particular, this assumption implies that economic decision makers know all possible future situations that will arise and can use that knowledge to formulate complete state-contingent plans into the distant future.  A key contribution that we make in this paper is to depart from this assumption and study the effects of government debt on interest rates when economic decision makers are ‘boundedly rational’ and only have limited foresight about future events.2  In particular, we adopt the approach of Woodford (2018) in which agents can only engage in sophisticated forecasting and planning out to a finite horizon.3  We embed this approach into the model of Li and Wei (2013), as it provides a simple relationship linking the future path of government debt to longer-term yields and is an empirically relevant model for the effects of the supply of government debt on longer-term interest rates.4  We illustrate how limited foresight attenuates the effect of the supply of government debt on longer-term interest rates.  Calibrating the model to recent empirical evidence implies that limited foresight diminishes the effects of government debt substantially relative to the benchmark of rational expectations. 

Indo-Pacific

• East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse: And How It Will Reshape World Politics  Foreign Affairs

  In the decades immediately ahead, East Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of depopulation, in which they will age dramatically and lose millions of people. According to projections from the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic Social Affairs, China’s and Japan’s populations are set to fall by eight percent and 18 percent, respectively, between 2020 and 2050. South Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12 percent. And Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated eight percent. The U.S. population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12 percent.

• Expanding the Tool Kit to Counter China's Economic Coercion Center for Strategic & International Studies

  China’s 40-year economic development has transformed it into one of the world’s largest economies and most powerful countries. Over the past 12 years, China has been increasingly willing to leverage its economic might to pressure countries to act in its interest. The United States and its allies and partners are not prepared to counter China’s economic coercion. This report identifies coercive sanctions the United States and allied policymakers can use to effectively compete with China in the economic domain and deter future economic aggression from Beijing.

• India’s Battleground State  Foreign Policy

  The biggest question about India’s ongoing national election is not if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) will win but rather by how much they will win. Modi’s deep popularity makes a third consecutive term very likely. But a few factors, including inflation and opposition to the BJP’s Hindu nationalism, could deprive the party of the supermajority that it seeks. The southern state of Karnataka is a battleground between the BJP and the Indian National Congress party, its main political opposition. Congress won big in Karnataka’s state election last year, picking up nearly 43 percent of votes. This underscores the challenges the BJP alliance faces to winning 400 seats of the 543 in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of Parliament—which would be a nearly 50-seat increase from its 2019 result.

Geoeconomics

• What’s Driving the Global Gold Rush?  Harold James/Project Syndicate

  A recent surge in the gold price is symptomatic of a changing world order and the onset of a new age of conflict and uncertainty. Governments and central banks have long viewed the precious metal as a potential source of monetary stability and economic security, and this time is no exception. Gold has returned to the international monetary system. Over 50 years ago, US President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window” (ended the dollar’s fixed-rate convertibility into gold), and the world moved on from its obsession with precious metals. A new era of fiat currency had begun. But now, fiat money is being challenged by fiscal worries and new technology (blockchains/distributed ledgers), and the price of gold has reached all-time highs above $2,400 per ounce.

The Global Week Ahead

The most significant event on our radar this week is the highly anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting, marking the 75th anniversary of Russia-China relations, holds immense importance as it is the first face-to-face interaction between the two leaders since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The discussions are expected to revolve around strategies to boost trade, particularly in light of the tightening sanctions on Russia and the potential for new bilateral energy deals.  Putin is keen on expanding natural gas and oil exports to China.  

The meeting comes as President Biden is expected to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and other goods. China is expected to issue retaliatory tariffs at some point, but it is unclear at this point what sectors will be hit and when. 

Also this week, we expect Israel to ramp up military pressure on Hamas in the Gaza city of Rafah despite President Biden’s decision to hold back on supplying particular military aid.  All indications strongly suggest Israel will not stand down despite Biden’s efforts.  Also in the region this week, 22 Arab leaders will meet in Bahrain for the annual Arab League Summit (and the first one in years in which Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has been invited back since the brutal Syrian Civil War), and the situation in Gaza will be the leading issue of discussion. 

Elsewhere in the world, a new Prime Minister takes office in Singapore, signaling a new era of leadership in the city-state as it further ascends as a leading financial center in the greater Indo-Pacific region.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will focus on the US CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday to get a better sense of the inflation threat.   Fed Chair Jay Powell will be in Amsterdam this week, speaking on a panel with other central bank chiefs, and we will be listening closely for his assessment of the economy.  

In Asia, China will release inflation data this coming Wednesday, along with retail sales and industrial production. Having seen more tepid economic reports last week and the threat of stagflation hitting China, markets will be keenly attentive to the coming reports.  Also in Asia this week, Japan will release Q1 GDP figures and its PPI report.  

Finally, in Europe, it is a fairly light reporting week. Markets will examine UK labor figures and note economic data from Germany.  

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week: 

Sunday, May 12, 2024 

Global

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres begins an official visit to Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain for bilateral meetings and discussions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –s

· U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will visit India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh through May 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India begins Phase 4 of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Yom Ha’atzmaut, otherwise known as Israel’s Independence Day, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 13, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Yemen), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile hosts Chile Fintech Forum 2024 in Santiago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in the discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       Canada Building Permits MoM MAR

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations APR

·       Brazil Business Confidence MAY/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence APR

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence APR

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade MAR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN will hold its annual 21st ASEAN Regional Security Policy Conference in Laos through May 17.

·       South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, China, through March 14.  It is the first time a South Korean foreign minister has visited Beijing in more than six years.  They are expected to talk about bilateral trade as well as arrange a trilateral meeting with Japan and the situation on the Korean peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI APR/ Food Inflation YoY APR/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence APR

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence APR

·       Malaysia Construction Output YoY Q1

·       India Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       China Vehicle Sales YoY APR/ Current Account Prel Q1

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  They will discuss outcomes of the recent G7 meeting in Italy, hear the biannual report of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board, the current stage of the euro area banking system, Euro-area competitiveness, and the EU capital markets union efforts.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets in Brussels through May 14.  They will seek to approve conclusions on inclusive societies for young people, European and international policy agendas for children, youth and children’s rights, and the legacy of the European Year of Youth 2022.  On the following day, it will turn its attention to culture and audiovisual issues, with ministers seeking to approve conclusions on the rise of influencers as a part of the EU’s media ecosystem, as well as on ways to empower the cultural and creative sectors through data-driven audience development. They will also hold a policy debate on future-proofing the cultural and creative sectors in the age of artificial intelligence.

·       Georgia’s Parliament will begin the third reading of the controversial “Foreign Agents” bill.  More protests are expected nationwide in opposition to the bill, which is seen as being pro-Russian and a threat to the nation’s democracy.  They are focusing on a so-called “positive agenda” of mutual trade and energy matters, repairing cultural ties, and a long list of other items placed on the so-called positive agenda.

·       Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in  Ankara, Turkey. 

· Norway will host the heads of government from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Germany, which will meet for a summit in Stockholm, Sweden, through May 14.  They will discuss security policy and the situation in Ukraine.

·       Russia’s Duma will consider candidates for deputy prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI APR

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence APR

·       Turkey Current Account MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Serbia Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account MAR

·       Euro Area European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds the first round of parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1/ PPI YoY APR

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY APR

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay celebrates its Independence Day through May 15.  It commemorates the day in 1811 when they won their freedom from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index APR/ PPI APR/ Redbook YoY MAY/11, Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change MAY/10

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales MAR

·       Colombia Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade APR

·       Uruguay Industrial Production YoY MAR

·       Argentina Inflation Rate YoY APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand holds elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices YoY APR

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY APR/ Visitor Arrivals YoY MAR

·       Japan PPI YoY APR/ Machine Tool Orders YoY APR

·       Indonesia Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY APR

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economics and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The Council will seek a political agreement on a proposal to make the relief of excess withholding taxes faster and safer (FASTER). This initiative aims to help fight tax abuse and contribute to completing the EU capital markets union by encouraging cross-border investment.  They will also seek a political agreement on the value-added tax (VAT) in the digital age package. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization.  They will also discuss the Russian war on Ukraine and the broader economic impact on the EU.  Finally, they will discuss the challenges arising from rapidly the rapidly aging EU population.  The ministers will also exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

·       The seventh Copenhagen Democracy Summit will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark, through May 15.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the presidents of numerous EU countries will speak.   Also scheduled to speak are Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te as well as US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

·       The 77th Cannes Film Festival opens, running until May 25. The honorary Palme d’Or award this year will go to Star Wars producer George Lucas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Governor Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the high-level scientific conference "Weichenstellungen für Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wachstum" organized by the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers online questions on the economic outlook for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY/ ZEW Current Conditions MAY

·       Romania Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Current Account MAR

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate MAR/ Claimant Count Change APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change APR/ BoE Pill Speech/ Labour Productivity QoQ Final Q4

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY APR

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Poland Balance of Trade MAR/ Current Account MAR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Gold Production YoY MAR/ Mining Production YoY MAR/ Unemployed Persons Q1

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on Peace and Security in Africa [G5 Sahel].

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat on the economy in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index MAY/10/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ CPI APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAY/10, NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR/ Foreign Bond Investment MAR/ Overall Net Capital Flows MAR

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity MAR

·       Canada Housing Starts APR/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Final MAR

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ ISE Economic Activity YoY MAR

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate YoY MAR/ Unemployment Rate APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong steps down to be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the country’s former finance minister.

· Today is Buddha’s Birthday, celebrated by many Asian nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Wage Price Index YoY Q1

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Philippines Cash Remittances MAR

·       Indonesia Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/03/ Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY APR/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping through May 16.

·       The EU Financial Stability Review of the implications of artificial intelligence on financial stability is pre-released.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

·       Hungary Construction Output YoY MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

·       France Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Turkey Budget Balance APR

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change YoY Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production YoY MAR

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices YoY MAR

·       Russia Building Permits MAR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinians commemorate “Nabka Day” (“Catastrophe”) commemorating when 70,000 Arabs fled due to the creation of the State of Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Wholesale Prices YoY APR

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ GDP YoY APR

·       Israel Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Oman M2 Money Supply YoY MAR/ Total Credit YoY MAR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 17th German-Africa Energy Forum is being held in Hamburg, Germany, through May 16.

· The 11th Africa CEO Forum will bring together business leaders, investors, and policymakers from Africa and around the world to Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend the Arab League Summit in Manama and will have remarks.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on “The Economic Impact of Higher Education and Healthcare Institutions" and participate in a conversation before the hybrid 2024 Anchor Economy Conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       USA Building Permits Prel APR/ Import & Export Prices APR/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index MAY/ Philly Fed Business Conditions MAY/ Capacity Utilization APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade MAR

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.  The exercises will combine land, sea, and air drills symbolizing the strengthening defense ties between the two nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Employment Change APR/ Participation Rate APR

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment MAY/11/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY/11/ Capacity Utilization MoM MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, gathers in Brussels for a meeting, also attended by the Ukrainian chief of defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Make UK Conference entitled “The current state of Britain’s Labour market.”

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review

·       Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ Balance of Trade MAR

·       Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

·       Ireland Balance of Trade MAR

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10/ Auto Production & Sales YoY APR

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Arab League Summit will be held in Bahrain.  Among the invitees are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.  He had been excluded from the annual meetings since the start of the Syrian Civil War.  The Gaza War will be the primary issue for discussion as well as the situation in Yemen and Houthi attacks on international shipping.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, May 17, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Chile to meet with President Gabriel Boric for a State Visit to discuss South American integration.

·       Guatemalan President Arevalo visits Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrado.

·       Peru will host the ASEAN Trade Ministers in Arequipa, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index YoY APR/ Foreign Securities Purchases MAR

·       USA CB Leading Index MoM APR

·       Argentina Leading Indicator MoM APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input and Output QoQ Q1

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate APR

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY APR/ Balance of Trade APR

·       China House Price Index YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ NBS Press Conference/ FDI (YTD) YoY APR

·       Indonesia Property Price Index YoY Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth YoY MAY/03/ Deposit Growth YoY MAY/03/ Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Banking Sector Industry Meeting organized by IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the annual ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement, held in partnership with the Office for National Statistics, at Alliance Manchester Business School.

·        

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production YoY Q1

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Great Britain BoE Mann Speech

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ CPI Final APR

·       Russia Current Account MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Belarus GDP YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves/ M3 Money Supply YoY APR

·       Ghana PPI YoY APR

Saturday, May 18, 2024 

Global

·       The 10th World Water Forum opens in Bali and runs through May 25.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections.  Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

·       President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony.  Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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