The Midwest Convenience Store & Energy Convention 2024

A Gathering of Some of America’s Greatest Small Business Entrepreneurs

I had the great privilege to speak at the Midwest Convenience Store & Energy Convention 2024 in St. Paul, Minnesota, this past week. The attendees really represent the heart and soul of American small business. It is truly amazing how critical what they do is to our daily lives, and I suspect many of us take it for granted the service they provide in keeping the broader economy flowing smoothly. We gas up, change our oil, get our coffee on the way to work, and maybe breakfast and lunch.

But I would argue they are also, in many ways, the first line of defense medically for us - where else do you go at any hour of the night to get medicines for your sick child or even yourself? You go to them first before a doctor’s office or even an “iffy” visit to an emergency room to deal with a sick family member. As one who had a chronically ill child for many years, I can attest to this fact.

My deep gratitude to the MCSC organizers for giving me the opportunity to not only speak at your convention but also spend time with your members and hear firsthand the many issues and ideas they have regarding politics and policy in this country. They are smart, common-sense folks—some of them running family operations that are more than a century old!

Recommended Weekend Reads

April 19 - 21, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

India

• A Short History of India in Eight Maps  The Economist

  In his decade in power Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has centralized the state to an unprecedented extent. Yet his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) has failed to attract many voters in the more prosperous south. The regional divergence is not unique to the BJP. Throughout India’s long history, rulers have tried and failed to unite the subcontinent under central authority. The chief reason is India’s diversity, summed up in clichés about dozens of cuisines, hundreds of languages and thousands of gods. The clichés may be trite, but they are also useful. A whirlwind tour through 2,500 years of Indian history helps explain why.
  

• “Meet India’s Generation Z”  Foreign Policy

  India changes more in five years than many countries would in a quarter century. This is partly because it is still relatively young: The country gained independence just 76 years ago, and nearly half of its population is under the age of 25. As one would expect, then, much has happened in the five years since 2019, when Indian voters issued an overwhelming mandate to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in power.  But what do those aged 18 to 25 think about India’s future?
  

• “The Hindu Nationalist Foreign Policy – Under Modi, India is Becoming More Assertive”  Foreign Affairs

  As India enters into historic elections, and unlike in previous elections, foreign policy is a major issue. Today, more Indians care about their country’s place in the world than did so a decade ago, and the aspirations of average citizens are mirrored in their nation’s fortunes like never before. The BJP has used this new attention to craft a self-reinforcing message: if the party can catapult an “ordinary citizen” such as Modi to global prominence, it can do the same for a country that has languished in poverty and weakness. Similarly, if Modi can make India secure, prosperous, and widely respected, he can do the same for the Indian voter.

Geoeconomics 

• Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned? National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper uses the recent cross-country experience with quantitative tightening (QT) to assess the impact of shrinking central bank balance sheets. We analyze the experience in seven advanced economies (Australia, Canada, the Euro area, New Zealand, Sweden, the UK, and the US)—documenting different strategies and the substantive reduction in central bank balance sheets that have already occurred. Then we assess the macroeconomic and financial impact of QT announcements on yields and a range of other market prices. QT announcements increase government bond yields, steepening the yield curve and potentially signaling a greater commitment to raising policy interest rates, but have more limited effects on most other financial market indicators. Active QT has a larger impact than passive QT, particularly on longer maturities. The implementation of QT has been associated with a modest rise in overnight funding spreads and a decline in the “convenience yield” of government bonds, but QT transactions did not significantly affect the pricing and market liquidity of government debt securities. Finally, we evaluate who buys assets when central banks unwind balance sheets, an issue that will become increasingly important if central banks continue to reduce their security holdings while government debt issuance remains elevated. We find that increased demand by domestic nonbanks has largely compensated for reduced bond holdings by central banks. This series of cross-country results suggest that QT has had more of an impact than “paint drying” but far less than simply reversing the effects of the quantitative easing programs launched during periods of market stress. Looking ahead, although QT has been smooth to date, frictions could increase in the future so that QT quickly evolves into more like watching “water boil.”

Europe

• EP Spring 2024 Survey: Use Your Vote - Countdown to the European Elections EU

  The Parliament’s Spring 2024 Eurobarometer reveals strong interest among citizens in the upcoming European elections (6-9 June) and awareness of their significance in the current geopolitical context. The survey sheds light on Europeans’ voting behavior, their attitudes toward campaign topics, and their preferences for the priority values for the next term of the European Parliament. It focuses also on citizens’ perception of the EP and EU, their perspective on life in the EU, as well as on their opinions about the EU within the current global context.

Russia

• The Impact of Semiconductor Sanctions on Russia American Enterprise Institute

  After Russia again invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies restricted Russia’s access to semiconductors, aiming to disrupt the Kremlin’s defense industrial supply chains. Have these semiconductor controls worked? The secrecy of the Russian defense industrial base makes it difficult to answer this question fully, but this report examines the evidence to provide some tentative conclusions on the impact of tech export controls.

• The Five Futures of Russia: And How America Can Prepare for Whatever Comes Next Foreign Affairs

  Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71 last October 7, the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took the rampage as a birthday present; it shifted the context around his aggression in Ukraine. Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign Ministry invite high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October, highlighting an alignment of interests. Several weeks later, Putin announced his intention to stand for a fifth term in a choiceless election in March 2024 and later held his annual press conference, offering a phalanx of pliant journalists the privilege of hearing him smugly crow about Western fatigue over the war in Ukraine. “Almost along the entire frontline, our armed forces, let’s put it modestly, are improving their position,” Putin boasted in the live broadcast.

China

• A Chinese Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War: A Conversation with Dr. Zhao Hai CSIS ChinaPower Podcast

  In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Zhao Hai joins us to discuss China’s views on the Russia-Ukraine war and its broader implications for China. Dr. Zhao provides an assessment of how he thinks China perceives the evolving situation on the ground, emphasizing China’s concerns about the risk of further escalation between Russia and the West, potentially involving the use of nuclear weapons. He argues that the Ukraine crisis has heightened U.S.-Russia competition and speaks to how China views the conflict as a sign of the world order shifting towards one of multi-polarity. He also shared his assessment of the United States engaging in enhanced proxy warfare in Ukraine that could be used in the Indo-Pacific in the future. 

• The CCP’s Role in The Fentanyl Crisis The Select Committee on The Strategic Competition Between the United States and The Chinese Communist Party

  The House Committee this week released an in-depth report on the Chinese Government’s role in the Fentanyl trade and its impact on the U.S.  The fentanyl crisis is one of the most horrific disasters that America has ever faced. On average, fentanyl kills over 200 Americans daily, the equivalent of a packed Boeing 737 crashing every single day. Fentanyl is the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45 and a leading cause in the historic drop in American life expectancy. It has led to millions more suffering from addiction and the destruction of countless families and communities. The report charges that beyond the United States, fentanyl and other mass-produced synthetic narcotics from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are devastating nations around the world. It is truly a global crisis. The PRC, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is the ultimate geographic source of the fentanyl crisis. Companies in China produce nearly all of the illicit fentanyl precursors, the key ingredients that drive the global illicit fentanyl trade.

• Why China Remains Unlikely to Invade Taiwan The Interpreter

  The United States, and Washington DC in particular, is awash with expectations of war against China in the near future, most likely caused by a Chinese decision to forcibly annex Taiwan. Plenty of Americans — including senior military officers, academics, and politicians — think Chinese leader Xi Jinping sees war as the best option. Those making this argument typically say Xi is tired of waiting for unification to happen peacefully, sees a military window of opportunity, or has set a deadline for finishing the job. Some think China’s recent economic problems create an incentive for Beijing to launch a diversionary Taiwan war.
  

• China, Russia, and Iran Are Reviving the Age of Empires  Hal Brands/Bloomberg Opinion

  The ghosts of empire are haunting Eurasia. President Xi Jinping’s China is seeking to reclaim the power and privileges of the great dynasties that once bestrode Asia. President Vladimir Putin is channeling the memory and the methods of famous conquerors from Russia’s imperial past. Iran is using proxies, missiles, and other means to build a sphere of influence encompassing parts of the old Persian Empire. Not so long ago, much of the world was ruled by empires. If today’s revisionist states have their way, the future could resemble the past. 

The Economics of a Good Sleep

• Sleeping Our Way to Being Productive VoxEU

  Sleep is key to our physical and mental health. It also affects people’s employment and productivity. This column explores how the amount of weekly sleep influences employment, productivity, and the income of individuals in Germany. Each additional hour of sleep per week increases the probability of employment by 1.6 percentage points and weekly earnings by 3.4%. Sleep is partly the product of both public and private decisions and can be incentivized so that the negative economic effects of not sleeping enough are more salient to individuals.

• Americans Sleeping Less, More Stressed Gallup

  For the first time in Gallup polling since 2001, a majority of U.S. adults, 57%, say they would feel better if they got more sleep, while 42% say they get as much sleep as they need. This is nearly a reversal of the figures last measured in 2013, when 56% of Americans got the sleep they needed, and 43% did not. Americans’ perception that they aren’t getting enough sleep is borne out by the diminished number of hours of sleep they report getting per night.

The Global Week Ahead

April 14 - 21, 2024

Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel is sending shockwaves globally and is likely to scare global markets when they open on Monday morning.   It also makes the coming week highly unpredictable in terms of what to expect.  It was already scheduled to be a very busy week, with the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, the G7 Foreign Ministers scheduled to meet in Italy, and India’s massive six-week-long parliamentary elections getting underway (estimated 900 million+ voters). 

Now, world leader’s calendars are being scrambled – especially among the G7 leaders – as they seek to find a way to calm the situation in the Middle East.   But it is likely they will not be successful as Israel prepares for a likely massive strike-back at Iran. At this point, we see little chance of Israel not massively striking Iran, likely targeting Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, oil facilities, and leadership in Tehran.  We are watching the situation closely and sending our clients essential updates and insights.

The attack may have finally gotten the U.S. House of Representatives focused on finally passing a large military aid package for Israel, which is attached to a $62 billion Ukraine aid package.  We expect the bill to pass the House this week.

Also in the U.S. this week, former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York gets underway, the first time a current or former President has ever been tried for a crime.

As mentioned above, India’s much-anticipated national parliamentary elections get underway. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata (BJP) Party is expected to perform strongly, giving Modi a solid mandate to push through sweeping reforms in the coming year.   Out of a population of 1.4 billion, voter turnout is expected to reach 75 percent – more than 900 million Indians voting.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be primarily focused on U.S. data releases after last week’s unexpectedly strong inflation print.

U.S. industrial production, retail sales, and the publication of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be among the most watched reports.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI print, while in China, the latest Q1 GDP data is released.  Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation figures and the ZEW survey results will be released in Europe.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is expected to meet today in an extraordinary session to discuss Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday and Sunday morning.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

• New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 15, 2024 

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings begin today.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• A jury trial for Donald Trump is scheduled to start. The former president is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records to facilitate a payment to adult actress Stormy Daniels, who claimed she had an affair with Trump in 2006.

• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala meets with President Biden at the White House.  They are expected to “reaffirm their resolute support for Ukraine.”   Later in the day, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani is scheduled to meet with President Biden (but this may be rescheduled due to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday).

• The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

• Chile will host the seventh meeting of the Forum of the Countries of Latin America and the Caribbean on Sustainable Development in Santiago. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in panel before the IMF-BOJ Conference: “Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth."

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before hybrid Associates Meeting of the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).

• USA Retail Sales (March)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Daly Speech

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (February)

• Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

• El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

• Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Machinery Orders (February)

• India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1

• Indonesia Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

• Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

• Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Energy Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels from April 16 to discuss how to advance sustainable energy infrastructure. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a lecture at the University College Dublin Economics Society in Dublin, Ireland.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit 2024 in London.

• Ireland Construction PMI (March)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

• Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

• Poland Inflation Rate Final (March)

• Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

• Russia Building Permits (February)

• Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

• Israel Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

• Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

• Oman M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit (February)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation Rate (March)

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings continue. 

• The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook along with Chapter 1 of its global financial stability report.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the charges used against the 330 defendants accused and convicted of storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

• Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presents the annual state budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty” at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington, D.C.

• Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)

• USA Housing Starts (March)/ Redbook (April/13)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/12)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is on a state visit to China, is scheduled to meet Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping.

• The Digital Silk Road Development Forum is being held in Xi'An, China.

• Philippine transport unions will hold nationwide strikes through April 16 and possibly beyond.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Import & Export Prices (March)

• China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)CH/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ NBS Press Conference

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The National Conservatism conference starts today and runs until tomorrow. Speakers include Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, former UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman, and GB News host Nigel Farage.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give a speech at the High-level Conference on the European Pillar of Social Rights in La Hulpe, Belgium.

• Ukraine and Bulgaria will hold the second Black Sea Security Conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

• Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Euro Area Balance of Trade (February)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

• Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

• Belarus Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

• Oman Inflation Rate (March)

• Qatar Inflation Rate (March)

• Turkey Retail Sales (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Forum on People of African Descent organized by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights will take place in Geneva, Switzerland through April 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024 

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.  G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet.

• The G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Capri, Italy. They will discuss Iran’s attack on Israel, the situation in Gaza, and the Ukraine War.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. 

• The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is expected to release its State of World Population 2024 report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) travels to Colombia to meet with President Gustavo Petro.  They are expected to discuss protecting the Amazon, other environmental issues, the upcoming Venezuelan elections, and the Venezuelan suppression of opposition candidates.

• The Semafor World Economy Summit will be held in Washington, D.C., from April 18 to 20. Several leading global CEOs, senior government officials, and central bankers will speak at the summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve  Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a Fireside Chat at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak on "An Update From the Federal Reserve" before the South Franklin Circle Dialogues Series.

• USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April)/12/ MBA Purchase Index (April/12)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/12)/ Fed Beige Book/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

• Brazil Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Solomon Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

• Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

• India M3 Money Supply (April/05)

• China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• A special European Council meeting will be held in Brussels through April 18. The participants are expected to discuss a new European competitiveness deal and relations with Turkey.

• Croatia holds parliamentary elections.

  Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates virtually in the Executive Committee meeting of the Italian Banking Association (ABI).

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Institute for International Finance Executive Vice President Clay Lowery at the 2024 IIF Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy (IRFMP): "Monetary Policy Challenges During Uncertain Times" in Washington, D.C.

• Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (March)/ CPI Final (March)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

• Russia PPI (March)

• Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel M1 Money Supply (March)

• Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Southern and East Africa LPG Expo, which seeks to advance liquified petroleum gas as clean cooking energy in the subregion, begins in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Thursday, April 18, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. OFAC licensing for the Venezuelan oil industry is scheduled to expire, placing sanctions back on the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference (Virtual)

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion before the Semafor World Economy Summit.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated armchair chat before the Prosperity Partnership Fort Lauderdale Meeting.  Later in the day, Bostic will speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and real estate in a moderated armchair chat at the University of Miami Herbert Business School.

• USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/Existing Home Sales (March)/ CB Leading Index  (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/12)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ 5-Year TIPS Auction

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japanese Central Bank Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi will give a speech and meet with local leaders in Saga, Japan.

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/13)

• Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ RBA Bulletin/ Participation Rate (March)

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Consumer Protection Ministers held in Brussels through April 19. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2023 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the 2024 EU-US Symposium in Washington, D.C.

• Euro Area New Car Registrations (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Construction Output (February)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

• Spain Bonos Auction/ Obligacion Auction

• Italy Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 19, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference.

• Mexico Retail Sales (February)

• USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/19)

• Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India begins the voting for parliamentary elections.   The voting will go on for six weeks.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation Rate (March)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

• India Bank Loan Growth (April/05)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)/ Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q1/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

• Kazakhstan GDP (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden participates on a panel discussion on monetary policy responses to post-pandemic inflation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

• Germany PPI (March)

• Great Britain Retail Sales (March)/ BoE Ramsden Speech

• Greece Current Account (February)

• Italy Construction Output (February)

• Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Slovenia PPI (March)

• Russia Current Account (February)

• Slovakia Current Account (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

• Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana PPI (March)

Saturday, April 20, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Toga holds parliamentary and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ecuador will hold a series of referendums on reforms to fight organized crime, which has become a major problem for the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Maldives holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

April 15 - 19, 2024

This week, Washington will be abuzz with the World Bank—International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, which will bring together central bank chiefs, finance ministers, and financial regulators from around the world.   

Several major think tank events will offer regulators and central bankers a platform to speak about financial regulatory matters. Most notably, the Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a panel discussion entitled “A Vision of the Future Financial System”  that will feature speakers including Agustín Carstens, Head of the Bank for International Settlements), Joachim Nagel, President, Deutsche Bundesbank, Roberto Campos Neto, Head of the Banco Central do Brasil, and Changyong Rhee, Head of the Bank of Korea. We would also point to the multiple events the Institute for International Finance (IIF) will hold in conjunction with the IMF-World Bank meetings. 

Congress will be busy this week with a number of hearings. The Senate Banking Committee will hold not one but two hearings, one looking at the housing market and the other focusing on the overall regulation of federal housing programs.   

Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, the House Financial Services Committee will examine the rise of ransomware and its threat to the financial system. They will also hold an oversight hearing on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s financials—all part of a long-running (and growing) level of discord between House Republicans and the CFPB’s overall policy direction, particularly around the regulation of card fees.

The SEC will hold its 43rd annual Small Business Forum, while the CFTC will see a multitude of speeches by commissions, most notably Chair Rostin Benham speaking at ISDA’s 38th Annual Meeting in Tokyo.

Below is a listing of all the other major regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, April 16, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee’s Housing, Transportation, and Community Development Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Challenges in Preserving the U.S. Housing Stock.”

• Thursday, April 18, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee will hold an oversight hearing entitled “Oversight of Federal Housing Regulators.” 

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, April 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Held for Ransom: How Ransomware Endangers Our Financial System.”  You can read the Committee Briefing Memorandum HERE.

• Tuesday, April 16, 10:15 a.m. – The House Committee on Education & The Workforce’s Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions hold a hearing entitled “ERISA’s 50th Anniversary: The Path to Higher Quality, Lower Cost Health Care.”

• Tuesday, April 16, 2:00 p.m.: The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Agency Audit: Reviewing CFPB Financial Reporting  & Transparency.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday, April 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty” at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 16, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, April 17, 7:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve  Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a Fireside Chat at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 9:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference (Virtual)

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time (most of Treasury’s senior team will be fully engaged at the IMF-World Bank meetings all week).

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, April 16, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC’s 43rd Annual Small Business Forum will be held at the SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. 

• Thursday, April 18, 10:55 a.m.: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce will attend the Florida Securities Dealers and Advisors 2024 Industry Outreach Program in Tampa, Florida.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, April 15, 3:50 p.m. Tokyo Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will discuss global regulatory priorities at ISDA’s 38th Annual General Meeting in Tokyo, Japan.  A Q&A will follow his remarks.
  

• Wednesday, April 17, 11:05 a.m. Tokyo Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in an interview at ISDA’s 38th Annual General Meeting in Tokyo, Japan.

• Wednesday, April 17, 3:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat on recent CFTC developments and policy agenda hosted by the D.C. Bar and Steptoe LLP in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate as a lead discussant at the Institute of International Finance’s AI & Data Roundtable.  The Roundtable will feature AI leaders, policymakers, and financial service executives for a dialogue about new developments in artificial intelligence, links with data policy, and implications for growth and opportunity.

• Thursday, April 18, 2:30 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a panel discussion titled Enabling the Next Generation of Financial Markets and Innovation” at the Harvard Law School—Program on International Financial Systems (HLS-PIFS) Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States.

• Thursday, April 18, 3:35 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will deliver a keynote address at the 2024 Europe-US Symposium in Washington, D.C.

• Friday, April 19, 9:00 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a Digital Currency Roundtable hosted by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C.

The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASB)

• Tuesday & Wednesday, April 16 – 17 – FASB holds meeting.  The agenda includes Accounting and reporting of government land; Climate-related financial reporting; Commitments; Intangible assets; Leases; Omnibus amendments; Public-private partnerships; Reexamination of existing standards; Omnibus concepts amendments; Management's discussion and analysis; Software technology; Seized and forfeited digital assets; and Appointments panel.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Tuesday, April 16, 8:30 a.m. – The OCC holds its Minority Depository Institutions Advisory Committee Meeting in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• Thursday, April 18, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration holds a board meeting.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• Monday – Saturday, April 15 – 20 – The 2024 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank will be held in Washington, D.C.  

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday – Wednesday, April 15 – 17 – The American Bankers Association and the North Carolina Bankers Association host the American Mortgage Conference in Savannah, Georgia.

• Tuesday – Thursday, April 16-18 – ISDA holds its 38th Annual General Meeting in Tokyo, Japan.

• Tuesday, April 16, 2:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds their 13th IIF Cybersecurity Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 16, 4:30 p.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a discussion on "Investing in Latin America and Brazil," focusing on "Brazil's tax reform and investment opportunities on ecological transition in Brazil and across Latin America."  Brazil’s Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, and the President of the Inter-American Development Bank, Ilan Goldfajn, will speak.

• Thursday, April 18, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an event entitled The Shifting Financial Landscape Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 9:15 a.m. – SIFMA holds the SIFMA Basel III Endgame Roundtable.  Featured speakers include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randy Quarles, and former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.

• Thursday, April 18, 1:30 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds the 2024 IIF Sustainable Finance Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events 

• Monday, April 15, 12:30 p.m. – The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12:30 p.m., on "International Financial Architecture Innovation and the Summit of the Future."

• Tuesday, April 16, 4:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Navigating the ‘Mid-Transition’ Period of the Low-Carbon Shift: The Critical Role of Finance Ministries” in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 8:30 a.m. – The American Consumer & Investor Institute hosts an event on regulating AI in financial services in Washington, D.C.  Speakers include Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), Representative Warren Davidson (R-OH), former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, ACII Executive Director Barbara Comstock and Dalia Blass, former head of the SEC’s investment management division. 

• Friday, April 19, 9:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Toward Reimagined Global Financial Architecture: Progress and Challenges”.

• Friday, April 19, 9:30 a.m. – The Center for Strategic and International Studies holds a discussion on "The Role of Fast Payment Systems in Addressing Financial Inclusion."

• Friday, April 19, 3:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a panel discussion entitled “A Vision of the Future Financial System.”  The speakers include Agustín Carstens (Bank for International Settlements), Joachim Nagel (President, Deutsche Bundesbank), Roberto Campos Neto (Banco Central do Brasil), Nandan M. Nilekani (Infosys; UIDAI (Aadhaar)) and Changyong Rhee (Bank of Korea)

Recommended Weekend Reads

April 12 - 15, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

China

• "As China’s Economy Falters, So Does Middle-Class Confidence"  NBC News

  At a restaurant in the Chinese capital that serves up low-cost meals to seniors, much of the crowd these days is decidedly less than senior. For Wang Ran, a 27-year-old designer, lunch at the restaurant in Beijing costs about half what she would normally pay — which makes a big difference as she downgrades her spending amid an economic slump in China that could have global ramifications.

• "No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition with China Must Be Won, Not Managed"  Foreign Affairs

  Chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI), and former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger write that amid a presidency beset by failures of deterrence—in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Middle East—the Biden administration’s China policy has stood out as a relative bright spot. The administration has strengthened U.S. alliances in Asia, restricted Chinese access to critical U.S. technologies, and endorsed the bipartisan mood for competition. Yet the administration is squandering these early gains by falling into a familiar trap: prioritizing a short-term thaw with China’s leaders at the expense of a long-term victory over their malevolent strategy. The Biden team’s policy of “managing competition” with Beijing risks emphasizing processes over outcomes, bilateral stability at the expense of global security, and diplomatic initiatives that aim for cooperation but generate only complacency. 

Americas 

• “Should Investors Take a Sheinbaum Victory for Granted in Mexico?”  Americas Quarterly

  In a year in which about half of the adult population in the world will vote and several national elections are set to be dramatic, Mexico is a puzzle. On June 2, the country will vote for president, 128 federal senators and 500 congresspeople, governors in nine states (including Mexico City), and local congresses and municipalities—all in all, a whopping 20,000 public offices will be up for grabs.  Yet, markets would suggest Mexico is an oasis of tranquility, a “boring long,” so to speak. After rallying by 15% against the U.S. dollar in 2023, the Mexican peso has posted an additional 2.1% gain this year, the only major currency still outperforming the mighty greenback. Credit default swaps (CDS), which measure the cost of insuring against a government defaulting on its debts, tell a similar story: at 92 points, they are significantly lower than Brazil’s (144) and Colombia’s (149) and have been hovering below the 100 mark for the last 12 months.

•   “Canada Stuck In NATO Penalty Box Through 2030”   Politico

  Canada is not about to meet its NATO defense spending commitments anytime soon, as new spending plans fail to meet the 2 percent target all NATO members are required to spend (and which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau again committed to meeting in 2023). The latest budget suggests Canada will only hit the defense spend-to-GDP ratio requirement of 1.76 through 2030. 

International Finance and Technology

• "Chapter 2: Expanding Frontiers: Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Technology Diffusion" International Monetary Fund

  How can fiscal policies promote innovation and technology diffusion in a fiscally constrained world? Countries are implementing industrial policies to promote innovation in specific sectors amid security concerns. However, the IMF argues industrial policy is only advisable when targeted sectors generate measurable social benefits (such as lower carbon emissions or knowledge spillovers), implementation capacity is strong, and policies do not discriminate against foreign firms. A well-designed fiscal policy mix that supports innovation more broadly across sectors and emphasizes fundamental research can boost long-term growth for advanced economies. For less advanced economies, facilitating technology adoption with strategic investments and tax reforms should be the priority.

• "The New Quantum Technology Race"  Internationale Politik Quarterly

  Throughout history, technological advancements have bestowed states that are innovation leaders with a decisive edge over other states. The development of today’s internet, pioneered by the US Advanced Research Projects Agency, significantly enriched the United States, for example. It currently boasts seven of the world’s top 10 companies, which make their profits from the hardware and software for internet-connected devices.

U.S. 2024 Elections

• "The 2024 U.S. Election, Trust, and Technology: Preparing for a Perfect Storm of Threats to Democracy"  RAND Corporation

  Foreign governments interfered in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, while some domestic leaders alleged election fraud before voting even began. Assertions that the election was “stolen” gained so much traction that, as certification began, a crowd rallied and attacked the U.S. Capitol, causing damage, injury, and death. Messages discrediting the election results and the agencies and officials investigating the riot and election-related offenses have continued unabated, particularly on social media.

Economics 

• "How the Big Mac Index Relates to Overall Consumer Inflation"  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Blog

  The Big Mac index was created by The Economist magazine as an informal way of measuring the purchasing power parity between different countries and currencies. The idea is that in every country, the Big Mac sold at McDonald’s is the same. The price of the Big Mac should reflect the local price of ingredients, wages, and other expenses like advertising. Therefore, even though the Big Mac sandwich is the same in every country, its price differs.

Podcast Recommendation of the Week 

The “In Good Company” Podcast

Last week, the Wall Street Journal ran a fantastic profile of Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management (which has $1.6 trillion under management).  Tangen somehow finds time to run a podcast called “In Good Company,” where he interviews the biggest CEOs in the world – and gets them to share fascinating insights about themselves, their companies, and what they think about all sorts of things on their minds.  Tangen has interviewed Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon (who loves to grill all kinds of meats), former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman (who revealed he would regularly get physically sick from all the stress of work), Elon Musk, Alibaba Founder Jack Ma, and many others.   Give it a listen – you won’t be disappointed.  It’s available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Spotify.

UBS’s ElectionWatch 2024

The Race, the World, and Investments April 4, 2024

I was delighted to be interviewed last week by UBS’s Chief Investment Officer Americas, Solita Marcelli, about the upcoming US elections. It was a fantastic conversation, and it was a true honor to be joined by former National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers and David Rubenstein, the Co-Founder of the Carlyle Group.

Markets are struggling to price in the impact of the November US elections for a number of reasons. First, the elections are still seven and a half months away. Polls are unfocused and suffering from a population that feels over-polled and weary of the constant campaign cycle in the US.

Additionally, while our house view is it is between a toss-up and leaning Democratic win for control of the House and a likely win for Republicans to control the Senate, we still have primaries to be held and need a clearer sense of candidates and campaign funding. All this will increasingly become clearer in the next two months.

Geopolitical issues often have little impact on presidential elections, but this year may be an anomaly. Progressive Democrats are deeply unhappy with President Biden’s policy toward Israel and the Gaza War. Increasingly, young Democrats seem to be drifting toward the Robert Kennedy, Jr. presidential campaign, which may upend all current thinking about who wins in November.

Add to this a general unhappiness among the electorate over the state of the economy, especially over sticky inflation (note the uptick in inflation numbers today - April 10 - unexpectedly rising 3.5 percent), which may drive voters to think of other candidates and even other political parties.

You can watch the whole interview HERE. I hope you find it informative and useful.

The Global Week Ahead

April 7 - 14, 2024

(NOTE: Our apologies for the late delivery. We experienced technical issues, which have been fixed).

This coming week looks to be a historic one for U.S.-Japan relations. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit Washington, D.C., for an official state visit with President Biden, the first such visit by a Japanese Prime Minister in nine years. Kishida will also address a joint session of Congress and participate in a trilateral meeting with President Biden and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss how to build more robust mutual defense capabilities to counter Chinese ambitions in the region. 

What makes the Biden-Kishada meetings historical is the pending announcement of a significant upgrade in US-Japan defense ties, expanding arms equipment, and technology cooperation between the two countries. The agreement comes in the face of growing concern in Japan about China's military intentions in the Indo-Pacific and the ongoing threat of North Korean nuclear and missile development.  

Also this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid in a bid to further pressure Israel to agree to a cease-fire and refrain from the planned military assault on the city of Rafah, a city with more than one million inhabitants and refugees.

Beijing will also be busy this week. Having just finished a four-day series of meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Chinese officials will host Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During her visit, Yellen made a point of strongly discouraging Chinese banks from working with Russia to help fund the Ukraine war effort or face U.S. sanctions.

Important legislative elections will be held in South Korea this week. The outcome will help determine South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's ability to move his agenda in the future.  

Currently, the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority in the National Assembly, and President Yoon's People Power Party seeks to gain the majority. 

On the global economic radar screen this week, the European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. Markets are hopeful the ECB will move to lower rates. Also, in Europe this week, markets will watch UK GDP numbers to see if the country has moved out of recession and back to growth.  

Canada's central bank meets this week to decide interest rates, too, while the U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last meeting, which may give further clarity as to when the Fed might begin lowering rates. Also, inflation figures are being released in the U.S. this week. Expectations are inflation will come in lower.  

In Asia, markets will be looking closely at China's inflation data and trade figures as well as Japan's trade figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 7, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

• Indonesia Motorbike Sales YoY (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Poland holds local elections.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers in Brussels through April 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 8, 2024

Global

• On 22 March 2024, during a Security Council meeting, in connection with the item entitled “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question,” a meeting will be held in the UN General Assembly Hall on the use of the veto.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid in Washington, D.C.

• Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar visits Washington, D.C., for meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will brief reporters on her just-completed visit to China.

• EU Election observers arrive in Venezuela for talks on sending an electoral observation mission to observe the July 28 elections.  Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has faced harsh criticism globally and from neighbors Brazil and Colombia for saying he would not allow foreign observers in to observe.  He has also effectively blocked any serious opposition candidate from running against him.

• Nicaragua is expected to formally file paperwork against Germany in the International Criminal Court over Germany’s support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

• Venezuela will host through April 22 the latest round of peace talks between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army rebel group.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in conversation with Missoula community members and University of Montana faculty and students.

• USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction/ Fed Kashkari Speech

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production MoM (March)/ New Car Registrations MoM (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Beijing, President Xi Jinping will meet with Taiwan's former President Ma Ying-jeou.  They previously met in 2015.  Ma, who belongs to Taiwan's main opposition, Kuomintang, and is widely seen as pro-Beijing, is on an 11-day visit to China.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrives in Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY (February)/ Overtime Pay YoY (February)/ Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (March)

• Australia Home Loans MoM (February)/ Investment Lending for Homes (February)

• Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• China’s Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao, travels to France and Italy this week for talks on the EU’s probe of China’s Electric Vehicle industry.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening speech at the Clean Transition Dialogue on Mobility in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England’s deputy governor Sarah Breeden speaks at an event hosted by the Swiss National Bank in Zurich.

• Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production MoM (February)/ 3 & 9-Month Bubil Auction

• France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ 3, 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

• Turkey Industrial Production YoY (February)/ Auto Sales YoY (March)

• Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The World Bank will publish its sub-Saharan Africa economic outlook report ‘Africa’s Pulse’ with updated economic forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook YoY (April/06)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/05)

• Mexico Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Argentina Industrial Production YoY (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

• Japan 5-Year JGB Auction/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders YoY (March)

• Singapore MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Presidium of the Confederation of German Employers' Associations (BDA) in Berlin, Germany.  She later delivers the opening speech at the second New European Bauhaus Festival in Brussels.

• Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, celebrating when the country ratified a new constitution in 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (March)/ 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

• Germany 5-Year Bobl Auction

• Spain 6 & 12-Month Letras Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Global

• Today is Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of Ramadan.  Financial markets across the Middle East, parts of Africa, and Asia are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joseph Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House for an official visit and State Dinner.  This is the first such visit by a Japanese leader in nine years.

• Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Miami, Florida.  While there, he is expected to meet with potential investors in Argentina and also receive an award for his support of Israel from the Shul Jewish Community Center.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/05)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ CPI (March)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (February)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (April/05)

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in panel before the Social Finance Institute.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will participate in a virtual discussion entitled “Basel Capital Requirements” at the European Bank Executive Forum.

• Brazil Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report and Interest Rate Decision, Canada Building Permits MoM (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korea will vote in legislative elections that will determine President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ability to move his agenda going forward.   Currently, the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority in the National Assembly, and President Yoon’s People Power Party is seeking to gain the majority.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Bank Lending YoY (March)/ PPI YoY (March)

• Asian Development Bank updates economic outlook.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets Finland's President Alexander Stubb in Brussels.  Finland recently became a formal member of NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Italy Retail Sales YoY (February)/ 12-Month BOT Auction

• Germany 15-Year Bund Auction

• Russia Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Global

• In the UN General Assembly Hall, there will be a meeting on the use of veto on 28 March 2024 during a Security Council meeting in connection with the item entitled “Non-proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

• OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

• The OECD publishes annual statistics on global development assistance.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Japan, the Philippines and the U.S. will hold trilateral talks in Washington, the leaders' first such meeting, as they look to tackle regional issues including Beijing's claims to the South China Sea. Japan's Kishida told Nikkei in an exclusive interview that the three countries will work together in areas such as semiconductors, digitalization, communication networks, clean energy and critical minerals. 

• Japanese Prime Minister Kishada will give an address to a joint session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York 2024 Member Symposium.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on "Leadership in Financial Services" before the Urban Financial Services Coalition 50th Anniversary Celebration hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

• Brazil Retail Sales YoY (February)

• Mexico Industrial Production YoY (February)

• USA PPI (March)/ Fed Williams Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/05)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ Fed Collins Speech/ Fed Bostic Speech/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The IMF’s financial assistance program to Pakistan expires today.  IMF officials will arrive in Pakistan to negotiate a fresh bailout package.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/06)/ 20-Year JGB Auction

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Building Permits MoM Final (February)

• China Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ PPI YoY (March)/ Vehicle Sales YoY (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss exchange rate and inflation developments and greater Euro area competitiveness.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Louvain, Belgium, through April 12.  They will discuss online user responsibility, economic security, and the recently published White Paper, which tackles Europe’s digital infrastructure needs.

• President von der Leyen, together with Markus Söder, Minister-President of the Free State of Bavaria, visits the nuclear fusion reactor at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics in Garching, Germany.

• Heathrow Airport’s border force goes on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Monetary Policy meeting in Frankfurt and press conference following the Governing Council meeting.

• Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

• Italy Industrial Production YoY (February)/ 3, 7, 15, 20, & 30-Year BTP Auction

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/05)

• Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate

• Germany Current Account (February)

• Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production YoY (February)/ Mining Production YoY (February)/ Manufacturing Production YoY (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Friday, April 12, 2024

Global

• The International Energy Administration releases the latest monthly oil statistics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Steel will hold a special meeting of stakeholders as a planned takeover by Japan's Nippon Steel sparks controversy. The iconic American steelmaker's labor union, backed by President Joe Biden, is wary of the deal, although its major shareholder backs the move.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak and participate in a moderated conversation on “Housing" before the Confronting America's Housing Crisis: Solutions for the 21st Century Symposium hosted by The Murphy Institute Center for Public Policy Research, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Tulane University's School of Architecture and AB Freeman School of Business.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will speak before the hybrid 2024 Fintech Conference: the Evolution of Fintech—AI, Payments and Financial Inclusion, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Lam Larsen FinTech Initiative at San Francisco State University, and the Center for Analytical Finance at the University of California at Santa Cruz.

• USA Import Prices YoY (March)/ Export Prices YoY (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/12)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech

• Argentina Inflation Rate YoY (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1/ Monetary Policy Statement

• China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Japan 3-Month Bill Auction/ Capacity Utilization MoM (February)/ Industrial Production MoM Final (February)/ Industrial Production YoY Final (February)

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/05)/ Industrial and Manufacturing Production YoY (February)/ Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Indonesia Car Sales YoY (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They discuss the state of play of the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. They will also seek to approve the EU’s mandate for the G20 finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting of 18 April 2024. The Council will also aim to approve an EU statement for the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the  Delphi Economic Forum IX in Delphi, Greece.

• Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)

• Great Britain GDP MoM (February)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (February)/ Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Industrial and Manufacturing Production MoM (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output YoY (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

• France Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)

• Spain Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)

• Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ ECB Elderson Speech

• Italy Industrial Sales YoY JAN

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

April 8 - 12, 2024

Congress—and much of the rest of Washington—returns to work this week after recess and spring break holidays.  And it is going to be a busy week.  For the broader market, we recommend paying attention to the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice Antitrust Division co-hosting the 3rd Annual Enforcers Summit. 

To further define and advance the Biden Administration's policy approach to competition policy across the board – antitrust to securities enforcement – FTC Chair Lina Kahn and Justice Department Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will speak to their efforts to unify efforts with other major regulators of every sector.  To best illustrate this effort, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will join them in discussing this coordinated effort.  The implications for bank mergers and other financial services deals are enormous as the FTC and DoJ are now taking highly active roles in reviewing deals.

Meanwhile, we will watch two events closely as they are aimed at the Federal Reserve Board's recent capital increase proposal: The Federalist Society will hold a panel discussion entitled "Navigating the Capital Adequacy Rule: Legal and Policy Perspectives" in Washington, D.C.  The panelists will include former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randy Quarles, former Secretary of Labor and Gibson Dunn Partner Eugene Scalia, Peter Conti-Brown, Professor of Financial Regulation, Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and Trent McCotter, Partner, Boyden Gray PLLC.  Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on the Basel capital requirements in the face of stiff resistance to the Fed's recent capital requirement proposal (which she, too, opposes). 

Also this week, FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will present a comprehensive update on how the FDIC has prepared for the orderly resolution of a GSIB under Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act at the Peterson Institute.  With the one-year anniversary last month of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and ongoing concerns about the effectiveness of the liquidation process of both domestic and international banks, it is going to be a timely speech.

Below is a listing of all the other major regulatory related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing to receive an update from the Treasury Department on Countering Illicit Finance, Terrorism, and Sanctions Evasion.  Deputy Secretary of Treasury Adewale Adeyemo will testify.

• Tuesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Sunny Places for Shady People: Offshore Tax Evasion by the Wealthy and Corporations."

• Wednesday, April 10, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “MOHELA’s Performance as a Student Loan Servicer.”

House of Representatives

• Wednesday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Beyond Scope: How the SEC’s Climate Rule Threatens American Markets.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Wednesday, April 10, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will participate in a virtual discussion entitled “Basel Capital Requirements” at the European Bank Executive Forum.

• Thursday, April 11: The Urban Financial Services Coalition holds its 50th anniversary in Kansas City and hosted by the Reserve Bank of Kansas City.  Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated panel entitled “Leadership in Financial Services.”

U.S. Treasury Department

• Monday, April 8, 12:00 a.m. Beijing time – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen will hold a news conference on the U.S. and China bilateral economic relationship.

• Thursday, April 11, 1:00 p.m. – U.S. Undersecretary of Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh will speak at the Peterson Institute on “The US Vision for Global Debt and Development Finance.”

• Thursday, April 11, 1:30 p.m. – The Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund holds a meeting of the Community Development Advisory Board to provide advice to the director of the Community Development Financial Institutions fund on the policies regarding the activities of the CDFI fund.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Monday, April 8, 9:45 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in the “Whole of Government Approach to Competition Policy” panel as part of the third annual Enforcers Summit hosted by the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. A webcast of the panel will be available. You can find HERE.

• Thursday, April 11, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission 

• Tuesday, April 9, 2:30 p.m. Hong Kong - Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “The New World of Digital Assets” at HSBC’s Global Investment Summit, the Conrad Hotel Hong Kong.

• Wednesday, April 10, 12:00 p.m. CDT – The CFTC’s Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee will meet in Kansas City at the University of Missouri – Kansas City.  The EEMAC will continue its discussion on the federal prudential financial regulators’ proposed rules implementing Basel III and the implications for and impact on the derivatives market. There will also be presentations and discussions on the state of crude oil markets and the future of power markets. Finally, the two EEMAC subcommittees will offer updates on their continued work related to traditional energy infrastructure and metals markets. 

• Wednesday, April 10, 9:00 a.m. ET – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver the opening keynote at AI Civil Rights and Human Rights: Visioning the Future of Rights in AI Governance, an AI Civil and Human Rights Policy Roundtable and Book Workshop, in dialogue with Professor Catherine Powell, Senior Advisor at the White House Gender Policy Council. The discussion will be moderated by Charlton McIlwain, NYU Vice Provost for Faculty Development, Pathways & Public Interest Technology. The event is hosted by NYU’s Center for Critical Race & Digital Studies, the NYU Alliance for Public Interest Technology, New America’s Public Interest Technology University Network, and the Digital Democracy Lab at William & Mary Law School.

• Wednesday, April 10, 4:30 p.m. ET – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the Institute for Business in Global Society on Tackling the Challenges of Responsible AI at Harvard Business School in Boston, Massachusetts.

• Wednesday, April 10, 5:00 p.m. CT/6:00 p.m. ET – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will participate in a lecture at the University of Chicago Law School in Chicago, Illinois.

• Thursday, April 11, 9:30 a.m. CDT – The CFTC’s Agricultural Advisory Committee will meet in Overland Park, Kansas.

• Thursday & Friday, April 11-12 – The CFTC and the Center for Risk Management Education and Research at Kansas State University will host the 3rd Agricultural Commodity Futures Conference (AgCon2024).  The Conference will be held at the Sheraton Overland Park Hotel in Overland, Kansas.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Wednesday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will present a comprehensive update of how the FDIC has prepared for the orderly resolution of a GSIB under Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

•  There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Monday, April 8, 9:15 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. ET – The Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division will cohost a Spring Enforcers Summit for international and state competition enforcement officials in Washington, D.C.   The event will begin with Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter and FTC Chair Lina Kahn speaking about the 2021 Whole of Government Executive Order.    They will then turn to two panels focusing on Whole of government Approach to Competition Policy and “From Farmer to Grocer: Concerns in the Food Supply Chain.”

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, April 11, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board of Directors will meet in both open and closed session.  In closed session, the board will receive the Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Conditions and Performance.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank 

• Thursday, April 11, 9:00 a.m. – IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give an address on the state of the global economy at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Tuesday, April 9, 8:00 a.m. - The Bitcoin Policy Summit will be held at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance will hold (in Spanish) an online briefing entitled “U.S. Election Implications for Latin America.”

• Tuesday, April 9, 1:30 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance launches Chapter 3 of the International Monetary Fund’s April 2024 Global Financial Stability Report.  The event will be online and in person in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, April 10 – The Security Traders Association holds its 2024 Washington Spring Conference.   A number of members of Congress as well as senior SEC Staff will speak.

• Thursday, April 11, 8:00 a.m. ET – The Institute for International Finance hosts virtually “Talking Policy with Giuseppe Siani, Director General, Financial Supervision and Regulation, Banca D’Italia.”

Think Tanks

• Monday, April 8, 12:30 p.m. ET – The Brookings Institute holds a roundtable entitled “Wall Street Comes to Washington Health Care” at their Washington, D.C. headquarters.

• Tuesday, April 9 – 10 – The Aspen Institute holds its Employee Ownership Ideas Forum in Washington, D.C.  Sen. Chris Van Hollen, (D-Md.), participates in a discussion on "Hometown Ownership: The Impact of Employee Ownership in Rural Communities" and later  Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Chairman Bernie Sanders, (I-Vt.); and Alex Jacquez, special assistant to the president for economic development and industrial strategy at the National Economic Council, participate in a discussion on "Federal Agencies Supporting Employee Ownership."

• Wednesday, April 10, 10:00 a.m. – FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will present a comprehensive update of how the FDIC has prepared for the orderly resolution of a GSIB under Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

• Wednesday, April 10, 12: p.m. – The Federalist Society holds a panel discussion entitled “Navigating the Capital Adequacy Rule: Legal and Policy Perspectives” in Washington, D.C.  The panelists will include former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randy Quarles, former Secretary of Labor and Gibson Dunn Partner Eugene Scalia, Peter Conti-Brown, Professor of Financial Regulation, Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and Trent McCotter, Partner, Boyden Gray PLLC.

• Thursday, April 11, 9:00 a.m. – IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give an address on the state of the global economy at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 11, 9:00 a.m. – the Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold a discussion entitled “The Rise and Decline of Venture Capital in China.”  

• Thursday, April 11, 12:00 p.m. – U.S. News & World Report will hold a webinar entitled “Making Sense of the 2024 Housing Market During Spring Homebuying Season.”

• Thursday, April 11, 1:00 p.m. – U.S. Undersecretary of Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh will speak at the Peterson Institute on “The US Vision for Global Debt and Development Finance.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Talking Geopolitics, Elections, and the Growing Intense Demands on the Electrical Grid Sector

The Corn Belt Power Cooperative Annual Meeting

I was thrilled and honored to speak at the Corn Belt Annual Meeting in Fort Dodge, Iowa, yesterday (April 3, 2024). It was a trip to God’s country - the beauty and grandeur of the Hawkeye State all around me as I was given the privilege to speak to leaders of the energy sector of Iowa on what is going on in the world today and how it directly is impacting them - U.S. Election outlook, Congressional outlook, the future of China, India, Russia, and the rest of the world.

There is something cathartic about engaging and talking with hard-working, clear-eyed folks like those in attendance at the Corn Belt Power meeting. The questions are deeply thoughtful, penetrating, and challenging. Add to this that the attendees are just wonderful folks—Iowa Nice, as they say! All around, it was a superb event!

You can see my presentation below.

A Superb Panel in Palm Beach

Pitcairn’s Outstanding Lunch Discussion Global Events and Investing

I was recently delighted to join my friends at Pitcairn for a client luncheon and superb panel discussion In Palm Beach, Florida.

Our discussion was wide-ranging, wonderfully challenging, and thought-provoking. Held in the elegant Brazil Court Hotel, I was thrilled to sit with Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn, Managing Director for Wealth Strategy Jen Proper, and Chief Investment Officer Nathan Sonneberg (who also masterfully moderated).

The upcoming battle over revising the 2017 tax bill is clearly going to be challenging for investors and corporations as Congress and the next Presidential Administration are going to be forced to grapple with the exploding national debt. All this comes in the face of intense pressure to bolster U.S. military spending and sustain and grow industrial policy, luring technology, pharma, and other critical industries back to the U.S. Massive contradictory pressures with enormous market implications.

Thank you, Jay and the entire Pitcairn team for having me!

Left to right: Pitcairn CIO Nathan Sonneberg, Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn, Head of Wealth Strategy Jen Proper, and yours truly.

Our super-star host, Managing Director and Head of Pitcairn’s Florida Office, Jay Goetschius, who masterfully put this great event together.