Personal Note: Visiting The Heart and Soul of Mexico and Much of Latin America

A trip to the Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe in Mexico City

During my recent client trip to Mexico City, I took an afternoon to visit the Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe. For anyone wishing to understand the single most important spiritual and moral core of Mexico, then you have to visit the Basicila. Indeed, you could easily say this extends to the rest of Latin America, as devotion to Our Lady of Guadalupe is widespread throughout the hemisphere.

For those not familiar with the historical background, here is the short version: In 1531, a poor Chichimec peasant named Juan Diego was visited by the Virgin Mother at least four times and once by his uncle, Juan Bernardino. In the apparitions, the Virgin Mother asked that a church be built on the site where Juan Diego stood. Diego then went to the Archbishop of Mexico City to tell him what had happened - a story that was met with skepticism.

Mary appeared later in the day to Diego, asking him to continue insisting that a church be built. Again, Diego went to the Archbishop who this time asked Diego to ask the woman for miraculous proof. Later in the day, Diego again was visited by Mary, who consented to the Archbishop’s request.

But here is where things got particularly interesting: The next day, Diego’s uncle, Juan Bernardino, fell ill, and Diego had to tend to him. He missed his meeting with the Virgin Mother and felt ashamed of it, as he avoided the normal route where he would see her as he went to find a priest to hear his uncle’s confession and offer him Last Rights. But Mary intercepted him. He apologized and she gently chided him for not having recourse to her to help his uncle: “Am I not here, I who am your mother?” - this is an inscription today over the entrance to the Bascilica.

Mary assured him his uncle had now recovered and that Diego should go to the summit of Tepeyac Hill to gather flowers. It was December and normally the Hill was barren of flowers. But Diego obeyed, and he found Castilian roses - which are not native to Mexico - blooming on the Hill. The Virgin Mary then appeared again and arranged the roses in Diego’s cloak and told him to take them to the Archbishop. When Diego saw the Archbishop, he opened the cloak, the roses fell out, and the image we see today of Our Lady of Guadalupe was on the cloak.

Today, Juan Diego is known as Saint Juan Diego, beautified by Pope Saint John Paul II in 1990.

Yours’ truly taking a photo of Our Lady of Guadalupe.

Scientific studies - and there have been numerous studies — cannot explain the image. A study in 1981 using infrared light could not find nay trace of sizing or skething underneath the paint. Scientists could not explain the original parts of the image or how it was so well preserved.

it is a beautiful and massive site alive with multiple groups and individuals visiting to pray to the Virgin Mother for her intercession. On a personal note, the sense of tranquility and peace in the midst of the great crowds is quite overwhelming. For anyone visiting Mexico City, I highly recommend a visit. You will hopefully, probably, leave feeling like I still do a week afterward: Happy, feeling blessed, and hopeful!

Trip Notes: Mexico City

I was just in Mexico City for client meetings. The City - and the largest Mexican institutional investors there — are vibrant and confident as Mexico is seeing a boom in manufacturing and has become the US’s largest trading partner - dislodging China for the role.

I was particularly struck by how politically focused local investors are in the upcoming Mexican elections. While most believe Claudia Sheinbaum is on track to a fairly easy election replacing her mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), there is a sense that the campaign by her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, is pushing Sheinbaum to be more responsive to international investors concerns over AMLO’s erratic economic policies.

Additionally, I found tremendous concern and confusion over the US presidential election outlook. In my numerous client meetings, there were constant questions of “How could America want to return to a face-off between an aged and tired Biden and Trump with all his legal problems and behavior issues?” There are no good answers to those questions.

There was a lot of focus on the USMCA and its likelihood to be reviewed in 2026 and what would a re-elected Trump possibly do to the deal. My view is this is Trump’s “ Baby” and, to put it simple terms, no one is going to say his baby is ugly and needs to be fixed in any serious way. There will likely be tweaks of some sort but not an outright reversal away from the agreement.

As for a re-elected Biden, clearly, there will be a strong effort to address labor concerns that have emerged since the deal was inked. Notably, the Biden Administration has aggressively gone to bat for organized labor in pushing Mexico on greater labor representation - to the point of being accused of simply doing Big Labor’s bidding.

Finally, we would note both President Biden and former President Trump visited the U.S -Mexican border while we were in Mexico City. Our assessment of the collective view of Mexicans we met with is bewilderment at the U.S. border policy - and more than a hint of anger as the Biden Open Border Policy has created a crisis within Mexico as it has become a highway for migrants coming from the Northern Triangle, Venezuela, and everywhere else in the world. This was born out visibly by the large number of homeless we saw in the City, many of them Haitian and other nationalities.

The Global Week Ahead

March 3 - 10, 2024

The situation in Gaza will continue to hold the attention of the world this coming week. Ramadan begins this coming Sunday, and with it comes a strict Israeli deadline for Hamas to release all remaining Israeli hostages. As of this writing, reports are circulating that the outlines of a deal have tentatively been agreed to – but if the deal fails, Israeli forces are likely to begin a full-scale assault on the city of Rafah – a city with more than a million residents and refugees along with sizeable Hamas forces. If an agreement is finalized, a ceasefire – likely for at least a month – will go into place.   

Elsewhere in the world, China holds its People's Political Consultative Conference – China's top political consultive body where most of the meetings are behind closed doors – in Beijing. The weeklong annual legislative season is known as the "Two Sessions." Premier Li Qiang is expected to present a report at the National People's Congress on Tuesday, unveiling the GDP growth target for 2024 along with national budget and socioeconomic policy outlines. The pressure is on President Xi Jinping to successfully move policies to revive the lackluster economy and increasing internal social tensions.

In the U.S., three significant events occur this week, which will signal the longer-term political and economic outlook. First, the Super Tuesday primaries are on Tuesday, effectively confirming a rematch of President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump in November. Then, on Tuesday, President Biden gives his annual State of the Union Address, pushing for a completion of the budget, reform of the U.S. border security situation, aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and a host of other issues.

The third significant event will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets – and voters – will get a better sense of the state of the economy and (maybe) a better sense of when interest rates may begin to come down.

Elsewhere on the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching and listening carefully to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference to get a sense of the state of Europe's economy. Also in Europe this week, the U.K.'s budget will be released – not just important economically but also politically for the struggling conservative government.

In the U.S., the jobs report will be closely watched along with the release of the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.   

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Global

• The 7th Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) concludes today in Algiers. Major oil natural gas producing countries from Latin America and the Middle East attended.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• El Salvador holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Bulgaria Liberation Day, celebrating the Treaty of San Stefano, recognizing the nation’s independence in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is heading to Algeria this weekend for a two-day visit in the first official trip by an Iranian president to the North African country in some 14 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal has a constitutional deadline today to hold presidential elections (which they are likely to fail to do).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 4, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet in Vienna, Austria its convene its regular March meeting going through March 8.

• The UN General Assembly will hold its 59th plenary meeting. On the agenda is the use of the veto - Item 63: Special Report of the Security Council (A/78/786). 

• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index (February)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Israeli Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz will meet with Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to coordinate on Gaza policy.  The trip has enraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who says he did not authorize the trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the "Economic Impact of Higher Education" before the 2024 American Council on Education Presidents and Chancellors Summit.

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February), BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment DEC

• Colombia Exports (January), PPI (February)

• USA 3-, 6-Month Bill Auction

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China's People's Political Consultative Conference – China’s top political consultive body – meets in Beijing. The weeklong annual legislative season is known as the "Two Sessions." Premier Li Qiang is expected to present a report at the National People's Congress on Tuesday, unveiling the GDP growth target for 2024 along with national budget and socioeconomic policy outlines.  Approximately 5,000 delegates will take part in discussions -- most of them behind closed doors.

• Pakistan’s National Assembly is expected to formally select Shehbaz Sharif as the next Prime Minister.  Sharif is the former President, and his election will likely spark nationwide protests as opposition parties allege the February 8 election was rigged.

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special three-day summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Melbourne, Australia.

• South Korea and the U.S. will commence the annual “Freedom Shield” military exercises as part of efforts to guard against the threat posed by North Korea. According to Nikkei News, the drills run for ten days and involve live, virtual, and field-based training, with the involvement of personnel from various military services aimed at "enhancing interoperability and elevating combat readiness." Seoul and Washington are working to remain combat-ready as Pyongyang escalates its weapons development.

• Today is the Anniversary of The Coronation of The Sultan of Terengganu, the Sultan of Malaysia.  It is a national holiday, and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Terms of Trade Q4

• South Korea Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(February)

• Japan Capital Spending Q4

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February), Building Permits Prel (January), Company Gross Profits Q4, ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February), Business Inventories Q4, Private House Approvals Prel (January) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU’s Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through March 5.  They are expected to discuss the general state of the Schengen area, the European free travel zone, and the recently presented evaluation of the EU law establishing Frontex (the EU border and coast guard regulation).

• The EU’s Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the state of play in terms of security of supply and preparations for winter 2024-2025. In that context, they will seek political agreement on the Council recommendation on continuing coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas. Ministers will also have an exchange of views on flexibility as an essential tool for energy transition.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Switzerland SNB 2023 Annual Report, Inflation Rate (February), CPI(February)

• Romania PPI (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Turkey Inflation Rate (February), CPI(February), PPI (February), Auto Sales (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• France Budget Balance (January), 3-, 6-, 12-Month BTF Auction, New Car Registrations (February)

• Slovakia Real Wages Q4

• Spain Unemployment Change (February), Tourist Arrivals (January)

• Euro Area EU-Bonds auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January), Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). 

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is expected to launch its Unjust Climate Report.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is “Super Tuesday” primaries are held.  More than one-third of all presidential delegates (874 of the necessary 2,429 Republican delegates) are chosen, but the outcome seems already settled as President Biden will face former President Donald Trump in November.  The states holding primaries are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and the territory of American Samoa.

• California holds congressional and senate primary elections.  Los Angeles also holds City Council elections.  In the senate primary, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) is leading in the polls and will likely face former Major League Baseball Hall of Famer Steve Garvey (R-CA) in the November general elections.

• The Wall Street Journal hosts its annual CFO Network Summit in New York through March 6.  

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “Community Reinvestment Act Modernization: An Interagency Leadership Conversation” at the 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference (virtual).

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President & CEO Neel Kashkari will speak at the Wall Street Journal CFO Network Summit in New York.

• Brazil PPI (January), S&P Global Services PMI Final (February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)

• Canada S&P Global Services PMI Final (February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)

• USA Redbook  MAR/02, S&P Global Services PMI Final(February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final(February), ISM Services PMI(February), Factory Orders (January), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index MAR, Factory Orders ex Transportation(January), ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices(February), API Crude Oil Stock Change MAR/01, LMI Logistics Managers Index Current(February), Total Vehicle Sales(February)

• Paraguay Inflation Rate (February)

• Uruguay Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• ASEAN Defense Ministers will meet at Luang Prabang, Laos.  They are expected to discuss general common strategies as well as find a peaceful solution to the situation in Myanmar and the tense situation in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech at FIN/SUM 2024 in Tokyo.

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI Final (February), Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (February), Current Account Q4, Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q4

• South Korea GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (February), Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (February), Tokyo CPI (February), Jibun Bank Services PMI Final (February), Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final (February)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (February), Retail Sales (January), MAS 4- & 12-Week Bill Auction

• Philippines Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February)

• China Caixin Services PMI (February), Caixin Composite PMI(February)

• Thailand Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• India HSBC Composite PMI Final (February), HSBC Services PMI Final (February)

• Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Services PMI(February)

• Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index MAR/05

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron visits the Czech Republic for meetings.

• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius travels to Sweden, Norway and Finland through March 8. Pistorius will meet his Scandinavian counterparts and German soldiers and take part in the Nordic Response military exercise.

• Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Labor Minister Heil present the government’s new pension package in Berlin.

•  Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) ambassadors meet leaders of the Russia-Islamic World Group of Strategic Vision, Moscow.

• Today is the 71st anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the site of the Soviet leader’s grave in the Kremlin walls.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February), New Car Sales (February), S&P Global Services PMI Final (February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February), 3-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Ireland AIB Services PMI(February)

• Russia S&P Global Composite PMI(February), S&P Global Services PMI(February), PPI (February)

• Hungary GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• France Industrial Production (January), HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February)

• Spain HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), 6-, 12-Month Letras Auction

• Italy HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• Germany HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), 5-Year Bobl Auction

• Euro Area HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), PPI (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The Organization of Islamic Cooperation will hold an extraordinary meeting of its Council of Foreign Ministers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI(February)

• United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI(February)

• Egypt S&P Global PMI(February)

• Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI(February)

• Jordan PPI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Ghana celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.  The holiday marks the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1957.

• The 9th Powering Africa Summit 2024 takes places in Washington D.C. The theme this year is “Capital Flows Underpinning the Energy Transition.” It will focus on energy project development, infrastructure, and the enabling environment. 

• The Uganda-EU Business Forum will bring together Ugandan entrepreneurs, European investors, and policy leaders to identify trade and investment opportunities in Kampala, Uganda.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI(February)

• South Africa S&P Global PMI(February), GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4

• Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI(February)

• Ghana S&P Global PMI(February)

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee. 

• World Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (February)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• the SEC holds an Open Meeting to consider new regulations dealing with disclosure of order execution infrastructure for National Market Systems Stocks.  This is the long-awaited climate disclosure rules and regulations championed by Chair Gary Gensler.

• Belize holds municipal elections.

• Colombia is bracing for national demonstrations led by opposition parties against President Gustavo Petro’s pension reform legislation.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress to the House Financial Services Committee.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before the 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference.

• Brazil Current Account (January), Foreign Direct Investment (January), Industrial Production (January), Car Production (February), New Car Registrations (February), Balance of Trade (February)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (February), Auto Exports (February), Auto Production (February)

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate MAR/01, MBA Mortgage Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index MAR/01, ADP Employment Change(February), JOLTs Job Openings/ Quit(January), Wholesale Inventories (January), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Crude Oil Imports Change MAR/01, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks, EIA Cushing Change MAR/01, EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change MAR/01, EIA Distillate Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Gasoline Production Change MAR/01, EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change MAR/01, 17-Week Bill Auction, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Beige Book

• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

• Canada Labor Productivity QoQ Q4, Ivey PMI s.a(February),

• Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

• Argentina Industrial Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit the northern Kashmir region, his first trip to the valley since the abrogation of its special status in August 2019. During the planned visit -- which comes just ahead of the country's general elections due in April-May -- Modi will address a public meeting in Kashmir's Srinagar area, according to his Bharatiya Janata Party's local unit spokesperson Altaf Thakur.

• India’s Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishankar travels to South Korea to meet with Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul.  He then will travel to Japan for meetings with Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa.  They are expected to discuss issues of bilateral, regional and global importance, and exchange views on cooperation for a free, open, inclusive, peaceful and prosperous Indo-pacific.

• The Asia Green Tech Summit, hosted by Nikkei and the Financial Times, begins in Singapore. The meeting will bring together business leaders, entrepreneurs, and investors from around the world to discuss Asia's renewable energy supply chain and its role as a global carbon market hub. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI(February),

• Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4, GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4, GDP Chain Price Index QoQ Q4, GDP Final Consumption QoQ Q4, Retail Sales Final (January)

• India M3 Money Supply (February)/23

• Kazakhstan PPI (February)

• Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the annual UK Spring Budget. Hunt’s proposal will outline new tax and spending plans for the nation.  The UK is now facing a fiscal deficit of 5 percent and 100 percent debt levels vs. GDP.   Hunt is expected to propose a 1 percent cut to the National Insurance program and cuts to the inheritance tax.

• The Russian Duma will present proposals on the implementation of the measures named in Russian President Vladimir Putin's Feb. 29 address to the Federal Assembly.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with the German state premiers to discuss how illegal migration can be limited.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), HCOB Construction PMI(February), New Car Registrations (February)

• Romania Retail Sales (January)

• Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (January), Industrial Production Prel (January), Retail Sales (January)

• Slovakia Retail Sales (January)

• Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI(February), Retail Sales (January), 3- and 6- Month Bill Auction

• France HCOB Construction PMI(February)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI(February)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (January)

• Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI(February), Spring Budget 2024

• Ireland Unemployment Rate (February)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (February), Corporate Profits (December)

• Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI(February)

• Israel Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.   They are expected to discuss greater economic relations between the two countries.

• The Connected Banking Summit – East Africa will be held in Nairobi.  Global executives, and bankers will discuss the emergence of AI in banking, cybersecurity, as well as sustainable and green banking.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Business Confidence Q1

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Sudan 2715 report. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East.

• The UN’s Buildings and Climate Global Forum will take place through March 8. The forum will bring building and construction stakeholders to share expertise and a vision for a future where buildings play an active role in combating climate change and outline effective steps for decarbonization. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joe Biden will give the annual State of the Union Address.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP(January), Nominal Budget Balance (January)

• Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Mexico Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February)

• USA Challenger Job Cuts(February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade(January), Initial Jobless Claims MAR/02, Continuing Jobless Claims(February)/24, Jobless Claims 4-week Average MAR/02, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final Q4, Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q4, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change MAR/01, 4- & 8-Week Bill Auction, 15-Year Mortgage Rate, Used Car Prices(February)

• Canada Building Permits (January), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), 15- & 30-Year Bond Auction MAR/06, Consumer Credit Change (January)

• Costa Rica Inflation Rate (February)

• Colombia Inflation Rate (February)

• Peru Interest Rate Decision

• El Salvador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The ASEAN Economics Retreat will be held through March 8 in Luang Prabang, Laos.

• Today is the 10th anniversary of the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Policy Board member Junko Nakagawa will give a speech and press conference before local leaders in Shimane, Japan.

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

• Japan Average Cash Earnings (January), Overtime Pay (January), Foreign Bond Investment MAR/02, Stock Investment by Foreigners MAR/02

• Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), Home Loans (January), Investment Lending for Homes (January)

• Philippines Industrial Production (January)

• China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)-(February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

• Taiwan Inflation Rate (February)

• Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss a report on the advance of the works to reach an agreement on the late payment regulation. The proposal is part of the 'SME relief package'’ a series of initiatives presented by the Commission on 12 September 2023 to address the needs of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the current economic environment. One of the main problems that SMEs are facing is the frequent payment delays from administration or other companies. The proposal introduces a stricter maximum payment limit of 30 days, eliminates ambiguities, and addresses the legal gaps in the current EU legislation.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank holds a monetary policy meeting.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference afterward.

• Bank of England Executive Director for Data and Analytics Transformation/Chief Data Officer James Benford gives a speech at the Big Data & ai World Conference in London.

• Switzerland Unemployment Rate (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Germany Factory Orders (January)

• Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (February), BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

• France Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), 10-, 20-, 30-Year OAT Auction

• Slovakia GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• Spain Bonos Auction, Index-Linked Obligacion Auction, Obligacion Auction

• Greece GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4

• Russia Interest Rate Decision, Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAR/01, Treasury Cash Balance (February)

• Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Business Confidence (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 18th Global Trade Review in Cape Town will welcome players from Africa’s trade, supply chain, commodity and infrastructure finance community.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), Current Account Q4

Friday, March 8, 2024

Global

• Today is International Women’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will travel to the United States to meet with former President Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

• SpaceX CEO Elon Musk faces a deadline today to comply with a demand of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party demanding that U.S. Troops stationed in Taiwan get access to SpaceX’s Starshield satellite communications network.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in moderated discussion before hybrid event, "Connecting Academics to Policy: A Conversation with New York Fed President John C. Williams" organized by the London School of Economics.

• Chile Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Brazil Bank Lending (January)

• USA Fed Williams Speech, Non-Farm Payrolls (February), Unemployment Rate (February), Average Hourly Earnings (February), Participation Rate (February), Average Weekly Hours (February), Government/ Manufacturing/ Nonfarm Payrolls (February), U-6 Unemployment Rate, WASDE Report, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count MAR/08

• Canada Unemployment Rate (February), Employment Change (February), Participation Rate (February), Average Hourly Wages (February), Capacity Utilization Q4, Full-Time Employment Chg (February), Part Time Employment Chg (February) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Current Account (January)

• Japan Household Spending (January), Current Account (January), Bank Lending (February), Coincident Index Prel (January), Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (February), Leading Economic Index Prel (January)

• Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

• Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• India Bank Loan Growth (February)/23, Deposit Growth (February)/23, Foreign Exchange Reserves MAR/01

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Industrial Production (January), PPI(January)

• Romania GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q4

• Hungary Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February), Budget Balance (February)

• France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

• Slovakia Balance of Trade (January), Industrial Production (January)

• Spain Industrial Production (January)

• Italy PPI(January)

• Euro Area Employment Change Final Q4, GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q4

• Greece Balance of Trade (January), Harmonized Inflation Rate (February), Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February)

• Ireland Industrial Production (January)

• Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Games begin in Accra, Ghana, and go through March 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

• Nigeria Balance of Trade October/ November/ December

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Belize celebrates National Heroes and Benefactors Day, a national holiday honoring Baron Bliss.  Bliss donated millions of Belize dollars to a trust fund to help ease the lives of the citizens of Belize.  Bliss was born in 1869 as Henry Edward Ernest Victor Barrettes. In his early adulthood, he took the familial title of Fourth Baron Barreto. He was a successful engineer and earned substantial wealth by manufacturing gun parts for the British. He also served for several years as an excellent Justice of the Peace, often advocating for people’s rights and preventing several conflicts.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation Rate (February), PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Global

• Ramadan begins for Muslims around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Portugal holds snap parliamentary elections. The elections come in the wake of the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is under investigation for corruption.

• Italy holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline Israel has given Hamas to release all hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, Industrial Production (January)

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

• Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

March 4 - 8, 2024

This coming week will be momentous in the Washington regulatory world as the SEC finally unveils its long-awaited climate disclosure rules on Wednesday.  The new rules are designed to require corporations to disclose their carbon footprint in SEC filings.  Climate activists and the Biden Administration view these rules as the cornerstone of their climate strategy, while corporations dread the likely enormous scope of the reporting requirements and accompanying liabilities.

But in recent weeks, SEC Chair Gary Gensler appears to have scaled back the draft requirements, worrying climate activists he may have watered them down too much.  Whatever emerges Wednesday, business organizations are almost certain to file federal lawsuits challenging the proposals.  And considering the SEC’s track record in federal court under Chair Gensler, the betting line is not in the SEC’s favor (we are still trying to figure out when Congress gave the SEC authority to regulate carbon emissions – isn’t that the Environmental Protection Agency’s job?  Just asking…).

Also, this week, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee (on Wednesday) and the Senate Banking Committee (on Thursday).  Powell will undoubtedly be asked tough questions about the Fed’s proposed bank capital rules, which seem increasingly imperiled by opposition from a growing variety of critics – including two Fed Governors (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman), who have been quite outspoken in their criticism of the proposal.

Also this week, we will be listening closely as Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg The 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference where they will be defending the new Community Reinvestment regulations – which are also the target of a major lawsuit from banking and industry advocacy groups.  

Finally, it will be worth paying close attention to the Federal Trade Commission’s workshop entitled “Private Capital, Public Impact: An FTC Workshop on Private Equity in Health Care.” Department of Justice Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will also participate likely signals antitrust action by both regulators against the PE world, a longtime target of Progressive Democratic Senators led by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

Below are all the significant public events we are looking at in the coming week:

Below are all the significant public events we are looking at in the coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Thursday, March 7, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives his

• Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

• House of Representatives

• Wednesday, March 6, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress to the House Financial Services Committee.

• Thursday, March 7, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Politicized Financial Regulation and its Impact on Consumer Credit and Community Development.”

• Thursday, March 7, 2:00 p.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee’s Tax Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “OECD Pillar 1: Ensuring the Biden Administration Puts Americans First.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Interagency Meetings/Events

• Monday – Thursday, March 4 – 8: The 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference will be held in Portland, Oregon.  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael J. Barr, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg will all speak, all of which will be livestreamed.  Federal Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly will also speak.

• Wednesday & Thursday, March 6 & 7: Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday) and Senate Banking Committee (Thursday) - see above for each testimony video link.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, March 5, 12:00 p.m. EST/9:00 a.m. PST – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “Community Reinvestment Act Modernization: An Interagency Leadership Conversation” at the 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference (virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Wednesday, March 6, 9:45 a.m. – the SEC holds an Open Meeting to consider new regulations dealing with disclosure of order execution infrastructure for National Market Systems Stocks.  This is the long-awaited climate disclosure rules and regulations championed by Chair Gary Gensler.

• Thursday, March 7, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee meets.  They will discuss the SEC’s proposals to improve equity market structure, the use of materiality as a disclosure standard, and recommendations regarding digital engagement practices.

• Thursday, March 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

• Friday, March 8 –SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak the Investor Advisor Compliance Conference is held in Washington, D.C.  

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Wednesday, March 6, 10:00 a.m. – CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will testify before the House Agriculture Committee.

• Wednesday, March 6, 10:00 a.m. – The CFTC Global Markets Advisory Committee will meet.  They will discuss increased liquidity in U.S. Treasury markets and the upcoming transition to T+1 securities settlement. Additionally, Financial Stability Board Secretary General John Schindler will address the Committee to discuss Basel III.

• Thursday, March 7, 10:50 a.m. EST/3:50 p.m. GMT – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will deliver a keynote at the FIX Trading Community’s EMEA Trading Conference in London.

FINRA

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Monday – Thursday, March 4 – 8: The 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference will be held in Portland, Oregon.  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael J. Barr, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg will all speak, all of which will be livestreamed.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Monday – Thursday, March 4 – 8: The 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference will be held in Portland, Oregon.  Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael J. Barr, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg will all speak, all of which will be livestreamed.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• Friday, March 8, 1:00 p.m. – The CFTC’s Spring 2024 Credit Union Advisory Council meets virtually. 

National Credit Union Administration

·       No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Tuesday, March 5, 12:30 p.m. – The FTC hosts a public workshop entitled “Private Capital, Public Impact: An FTC Workshop on Private Equity in Health Care.”   FTC Chair Lina Kahn and Department of Justice Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will both speak.

• Wednesday, March 6, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. – The FTC hosts its 8th Annual PrivacyCon 2024.  The conference brings together a diverse group of stakeholders, including researchers, academics, industry representatives, consumer advocates, and government regulators, to discuss the latest research and trends related to consumer privacy and data security. 

Farm Credit Administration

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Import/Export Bank

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

World Bank

• No significant events are scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events/Public Events

• Sunday – Friday, March 3 – 8: The Securities Industry institute holds SII 2024 at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

• Wednesday and Thursday, March 6-8 – The Investor Advisor Compliance Conference is held in Washington, D.C.   SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak, as will SEC Division of Investment Management William Birdthistle.

Think Tank Events

• Tuesday, March 5, 9:15 a.m. – the Brookings Institution holds a conference entitled, “One year later: Lessons learned from the March 2023 bank failures.” Speakers include House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry and PNC Financial Services Group CEO William Demchak.

• Wednesday, March 6, 12:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a launch event for their 3rd flagship report, “USMCA Forward 2024: Assessing the state of USMCA and North American economic relations.”  

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

March 1 - 3, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Supply Chain Security

• “How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Impacts Global Food Security”  Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers to the global food market and together constituted 12% of global food trade between 2019 and 2021. However, since 2022, the export of grain, sunflower oil, and other products from Ukraine has been drastically cut by Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea ports. The Black Sea grain initiative was established to ensure the safe passage of grain from Ukraine, but Russia withdrew from the agreement. Blocking these exports has contributed to an increase in global crop and food prices, which were already higher than pre-COVID-19 levels. Higher food prices have worsened hunger and poverty around the world, with 345 million people now in immediate danger from acute food insecurity. In addition, disruptions in the Suez Canal due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea along with plummeting transits in the Panama Canal due to dwindling water levels from climate change-induced drought have compounded global food insecurity.
  

• “Washington Tackles a New National Security Threat: Chinese Made Cranes”  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Last week, the Biden Administration rolled out a coordinated set of efforts to mitigate cybersecurity risks to U.S. port infrastructure and supply chains. These plans included an ambitious international project to improve U.S. manufacturing competitiveness in a strategic sector: port equipment.  The primary and explicit motivation for these actions, according to national security officials, arises from the complex threat posed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). However, even the fairly strong remedies proposed are likely to fall well short of the mark without extraordinary compliance from unenthusiastic commercial actors. There is also no timeline for producing a viable, technical substitute for China’s outsized role in U.S. maritime transport systems.

Critical Minerals

• “Washington Wants to Revive a Critical Minerals Mega-Railway Through Africa”   Foreign Policy

  As geopolitical tensions electrify the global scramble for critical minerals—the raw materials that underpin advanced defense systems and clean energy technologies—the United States and China have been racing to expand their influence over the mineral market in Africa. In one of the most ambitious U.S. infrastructure bids in Africa yet, the Biden administration has pledged to lend hundreds of millions of dollars toward reviving the Lobito Corridor, a 1,200-mile-long railway that would transport critical minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to the Angolan coast. The DRC is home to the world’s biggest cobalt reserves, while Zambia is rich in copper. 

•   “Critical Minerals: 5 Things to Watch in a Consolidation Year”   Control Risks

  Control Risks looks at the key trends that are likely to impact global supply-chain for critical minerals in 2024.  These include: 1) gigafactories will make demand estimates concrete, 2) trade controls will go global, 3) producing countries face a maturity test, 4) technology disruptions will shape new trends, and 5) risers and fallers: winners and losers will become clear.

Economic & Trade Policy 

• “Will AI Save or Sink the U.S. Economy?”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  It would seem that researchers and policymakers are counting on artificial intelligence tools to reverse the global productivity slowdown identified by many as the key element to foster higher future growth. But how confident can we be about that prospect? Not very, it turns out.  So the author turned ChatGPT-4 itself: How is AI going to improve labor productivity?  The answers were surprising.
  

• “Climate Policy Reform Options in 2025”  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: With the expiration of many tax cuts and unmet climate targets, 2025 could be a crucial year for climate policy in the United States. Using an integrated model of energy supply and demand, this paper aims to assess climate policies that the U.S. federal government may consider in 2025 and to evaluate emissions reductions, fiscal costs and revenues, and household energy expenditures across a range of policy scenarios. Model results suggest that the emissions reductions of the Inflation Reduction Act are significantly augmented under scenarios that add a modest carbon fee or, to a lesser extent, that implement a clean electricity standard in the power sector. Second, net fiscal costs can be substantially reduced in scenarios that include a carbon fee, especially if fossil fuel exports are taxed. Third, expanding the IRA tax credits yields modest additional emissions reductions with higher fiscal costs. Finally, although none of the policy combinations across these scenarios achieve the U.S. target of a 50-52% economy-wide emissions reduction by 2030 from 2005 levels, the carbon fee and clean electricity standard scenarios achieve these levels between 2030 and 2035.

• “Memo to the Fed: Stop the News Conferences”  Random Observations for Students of Economics/Greg Mankiw’s Blog

  Noted Harvard University Economics Professor Greg Mankiw argues that Fed Chair Jay Powell’s news conferences are the opposite of good economics communications and that he should stop.

China 

• “China Isn’t Just Spending More; It’s Spending Smarter”  RealClearDefense

  China’s inflation-adjusted military spending is at least three times larger than it was in the year 2000 and by some counts is hundreds of millions of dollars larger than the official numbers suggest. Yet even these dramatic top-line estimates do not tell the whole story of China’s military rise because it has also increased efficiencies within its defense budget – meaning that, unlike the United States, China isn’t just spending more, it’s spending smarter.

Russia 

• “Nuclear Destruction, The War’s Popularity, and Boosting Birth Rates”  Meduza

  News agencies around the world reported on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats made during his annual state of the nation speech before the Russian Duma.  But they did not report on what he spent more than half of his two-hour speech on: Domestic policy in general and, in great detail, how serious the demographic decline has become for Russia.  Putin announced a number of new initiatives aimed at boosting birth rates, including one program he calls “Family” which will spend close to a billion dollars just encouraging Russians to have children as well as special mortgage programs and “maternity capital” programs for the next seven years.  Currently, the Russian population is on track to decline by at least 10 percent over the next 20 years, per Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service.  Add to that the more than an estimated 300,000 war casualties, and the hundreds of thousands of draft-age Russian men who have fled the country, and the country is in a demographic free-fall.  

• “Global Perspectives on Ending the Russia-Ukraine War”  Council of Councils

  The Council of Councils, an imitative of the Council on Foreign Relations seeing to connect leading foreign policy institutes in policy discussions and analysis,  published last week a memo where think tank scholars from 13 countries offered their thought-provoking and unique thoughts on how the Ukraine War could be brought to an end.

The Global Week Ahead

February 25 - March 3, 2024

Sunday, February 25, 2024

This coming week, there will be a keen global focus on the U.S. House of Representatives, which is returning to work after a ten-day break for two big reasons. First, the federal government will begin to shut down on March 1 unless the House can agree on a spending plan this week. Conservative Republicans oppose passing another short-term spending bill (as does Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA).

Secondly, tied up in this ongoing political drama is the question of what the House will do about passing a critical aid package for Ukraine (and Israel and Taiwan) to help shore up the beleaguered nation’s defenses in the face of a mounting Russian counter-attack. The same group of conservative House Republicans are opposed to voting on the package unless there are more robust U.S. border security measures than those negotiated by Republican and Democratic senators earlier this month.   As of this writing, a continued stalemate is likely on the U.S. budget and the Ukraine aid bill – which means a government shutdown is likely.

As uncertainty and concern grow over how to assist Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron has called an ad-hoc meeting of E.U. leaders in Paris on Monday to shore up E.U. support for Ukraine going forward. What comes out of that meeting may impact the U.S. House to speed up consideration of the Ukraine aid package. The meeting also comes the day before The E.U. presents its new Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and European Defense Investment Program (EDIP). Both were developed to help restock and acquire new defense equipment and technology. 

Meanwhile, markets will watch the G20 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor meetings in São Paul, Brazil, this week. Brazil is the chair of the G20 this year. But it is also a member of the BRICs, and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) is taking advantage of the meeting to gather the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors together for their first-ever meeting just before the G20 meetings.  

Another major global meeting this week is the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), held in Abu Dhabi. With all the continuous chatter about the death of globalization and free trade, the meeting outcomes will be closely watched to see just how true or false that chatter has been.

Turning to the global economic radar screen, markets will be looking at the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the PCE, to give some new indication of when the Fed may begin to lower rates. 

A number of Fed Governor speeches are scheduled this week, too, which may help guide markets a bit more on what to expect.  

In Asia, China releases PMI data, while Japan is scheduled to release CPI data. In Europe, Germany and France are scheduled to release PMI prints and major labor market data releases from across the Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 25, 2024:

Global

• Israel is expected to send formal notification to the International Court of Justice in the Hague in response to a Court order last month in the wake of South Africa’s accusations Israel has committed genocide in its invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodia holds senate elections.  Hun Sen, the former Prime Minister and father of the current Prime Minister, is expected to become the Senate President.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Belarus holds parliamentary elections.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Abu Dhabi through February 29.  The meeting will be held on the margins of the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 26 to 29 February 2024.

• Junior doctors in the UK begin a five-day walkout over pay.  They are expected to be back by midnight on February 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 26, 2024 

Global

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi.  Among the topics on the agenda are trade and industrial policy.

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Geneva, Switzerland, to deliver remarks at the opening of the High-level segment of the 55th session of the Human Rights Council.

• The 6th sixth session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) opens at the UNEP headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya running until March 1.  More than 6,000 participants are registered to attend.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Afghanistan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Senate will sit for the impeachment trial of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.  The eventual impeachment vote is widely expected to fail.

• Argentina’s Union of State Employees (ATE) will have its transportation and health workers strike over the government's austerity program.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Oklahoma City.

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel (January)

• Colombia Business Confidence (January)

• USA New Home Sales (January), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February), 3-Month, 6-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year Note Auction, Building Permits Final (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee will meet for two days to prepare the final agenda for the Congress’ annual meeting, which starts on March 5.  The agenda is expected to focus on the national budget, socio-economic development planning for 2024, and other domestic issues.

• Thailand and the U.S. will hold the annual Cobra Gold military exercises, the longest-running military exercises in Southeast Asia.  More than 30 countries will participate and will involve more than 4,000 soldiers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore Industrial Production (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron will host a meeting of EU leaders in Paris to discuss Ukraine support and how the EU can further bolster aid.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to exchange views on ways of ensuring rapid and structural responses to the current crisis that the agricultural sector is facing.  Farmers across the EU have been protesting over restrictive climate change requirements, competitive agricultural issues, and other matters for weeks.

• There will be an informal meeting of the EU Gender Equality Ministers through February 27 in Brussels.

• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Prague, Czech Republic.

• The Hungarian parliament reconvenes after a multiweek break and is expected to vote on Sweden’s NATO accession.

• Verdi, one of Germany’s largest unions, has called for a nationwide six-day transport strike over wages.

• The Mobile World Congress begins in Madrid, Spain, and goes through February 29.  It is the world’s biggest event focusing on mobile communications. Speakers include Vodafone chief executive Margherita Della Valle and Dell Technologies chair and CEO Michael Dell.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report 2022 in Strasbourg, France.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden opens the Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference in London.

• Spain PPI (January)

• Ireland Construction Output (Q4)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

• France 3-, 6-, 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Kuwait celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day the country was liberated from Iraqi occupation in 1999.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal will hold a national dialogue through Feb. 27 to reach an agreement on a new date for the country's postponed presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

• BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet for the first time in São Paulo, Brazil, in advance of the G20 Finance Minister/Central Bank Governors meeting later this week.  Russia is chairing the BRICS in 2024 but taking advantage of most of the BRICS finance ministers being in São Paulo for the G20 meeting to gather in a pre-meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Michigan holds its 2024 presidential primary.

• The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1844 the country gained independence from Haiti.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a virtual speech on “Counterparty Credit Risk” at the Conference on Counterparty Risk Management.

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (January), Foreign Direct Investment (January), IPCA mid-month CPI (February)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (January)

• USA Durable Goods Orders (January), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation, Defense, and Non-Defense (January), Redbook (Feb/24), S&P/CaseShiller Home Price DEC, House Price Index DEC, CB Consumer Confidence (February), Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (February), Dallas Fed Services Index, 7-Year Note Auction, API Crude Oil Stock Change (Feb/23)

• Argentina Retail Sales DEC

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong will announce its annual budget for 2024-2025.  Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary has predicted a deficit of more than $100 million HK dollars, double the initial estimates.  Analysts believe the deficit is a result of declining land values and smaller stamp duties.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation Rate (January)

• Malaysia PPI (January)

• Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (February)

• Taiwan Export Orders (January), Current Account (Q4), M2 Money Supply (January)

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Singapore 20 Year Bond Yield, MAS 12- and 4-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU is expected to present its new Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and its European Defense Investment Program (EDIP).  Both were developed to help restock and acquire new defense equipment and technology. 

• The prime ministers of members of the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) will meet in Prague, Czech Republic.

• NATO begins the maritime exercise Dynamic Manta off the coast of Italy. The exercise is anti-submarine and anti-surface ship warfare training. It goes until March 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden will give a keynote address at the Association of Financial Markets (AFME) Bond Trading, Innovation and Evolution Forum in London.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR, 10-Year Bund/g Auction,

• France Consumer Confidence (February), Unemployment Benefit Claims (January), Jobseekers Total (January)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (January), Loans to Households (January), M3 Money Supply  (January)

• Great Britain 15-Year IndexLinked Treasury Gilt Auction

• Italy 6-Month BOT Auction

• Russia Monetary Policy Report

• Greece Total Credit (January)

• Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (February), Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel holds municipal elections.

• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak is expected to travel to Tehran to participate in the Iran-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation.  The two countries may announce the signing of a deal creating a gas hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s coalition of trade unions will protest nationally through February 28 over the rising cost of living.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

• Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, February 28, 2024 

Global

• G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin meetings in Sao Paulo, Brazil, through February 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will host South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Washington. Blinken and Cho are expected to discuss strengthening the ability to have an “extended deterrence” against North Korea as well as further building a global comprehensive strategic alliance.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on monetary policy and the economy before the Greater North Fulton Chamber of Commerce, Fulton County, Georgia.

• Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak and participate in a fireside chat before an event hosted by the Center for Business, Government, and Society at the Dartmouth College Tuck School of Business.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a hybrid economic briefing organized by the Long Island Association.

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February), Bank Lending (January)

• Chile Unemployment Rate (January)

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/23), MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb/23), MBA Mortgage Market Index (Feb/23), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (Feb/23), MBA Purchase Index (Feb/23), GDP Growth Rate  2nd Est (Q4), GDP Price Index  2nd Est (Q4), Goods Trade Balance Adv (January), Retail Inventories Ex Autos  Adv (January), Wholesale Inventories  Adv (January), Core PCE Prices  2nd Est (Q4), GDP Sales  2nd Est (Q4), PCE Prices  2nd Est (Q4), Real Consumer Spending  2nd Est (Q4), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (Feb/23), EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change (Feb/23), EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Gasoline Production Change (Feb/23), EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (Feb/23), NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs, 17-Week Bill Auction, Fed Bostic Speech

• Canada Current Account (Q4), Average Weekly Earnings DEC

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will address a joint sitting of Australia's parliament.  Marcos is also meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to discuss a broader mutual security arrangement. The two countries elevated their relationship to a strategic partnership in 2023 and are expected to sign new agreements to strengthen "mutual capacity building" during the two-day visit. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Construction Work Done (Q4), Monthly CPI Indicator (January), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February), RBA Payments System Board Meeting

• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

• Thailand Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales DEC

• Japan Coincident Index Final DEC, Leading Economic Index Final DEC

• Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Moldovan breakaway region Transdniestria will hold its first Congress of Deputies since 2006 and potentially issue a new request for recognition and annexation by Russia.

• Yulia Navalny, wife of slain Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, will address the European Parliament.  Parliament Members will then discuss the need for EU action to support political prisoners and oppressed civil society in Russia. A resolution will be put to a vote on February 29.

•  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama in Tirana, Albania.

• Andalusia celebrates Andalusia Day, a holiday celebrating when the Spanish region passed a Statute of Autonomy in 1980.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Cipollone will participate in the G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' meeting in São Paulo, Brazil.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a keynote speech at an industry outreach conference on counterparty credit risk management (CCR) organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in collaboration with the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in New York

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the Financial Times’s Future Forum online event.

• Turkey Balance of Trade Final (January), Economic Confidence Index (February), Exports and Imports Final (January)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

• Italy Business Confidence (February), Consumer Confidence (February), 10- and 5-Year BTP Auction

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (February)

• Slovenia harmonized Inflation Rate (February), Retail Sales (January)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (February), Consumer Confidence Final (February), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Industrial Sentiment (February), Selling Price Expectations (February), Services Sentiment (February), ECB McCaul Speech

• Ireland Retail Sales (January)

• Great Britain 7-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Germany 15-Year Bund Auction

• Spain Business Confidence (February)

• Russia Unemployment Rate (January), Business Confidence (February), Corporate Profits DEC, Industrial Production (January), Real Wage Growth DEC, Retail Sales  (January), GDP  (January), GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The secular Palestinian party and former guerrilla movement Fatah and the Palestinian militant group Hamas will take part in inter-Palestinian talks in Moscow, Russia. This strategy represented a notable departure from the Palestinian Authority's previous responses to Bahrain and the UAE normalizing relations with "Israel" in 2020, during which it denounced the Gulf states for betrayal.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been urging the two competing factions to unite.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January), Private Bank Lending (January)

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January), Private Bank Lending (January)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 56th session of the Economic Commission for Africa will take place in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Ministers for finance and economic development, alongside central bank governors, will discuss Africa’s development agenda.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Global

• It is Leap Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will testify before the House Armed Services Committee to explain his recent secret hospitalization.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak on "Financial Stability/Regulation" before the Columbia University/Bank Policy Institute 2024 Bank Regulation Research Conference in New York.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion before hybrid Citizens Budget Commission 92nd Annual Gala in New York.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and the state of the banking industry before the 2024 Banking Outlook Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January), Nominal Budget Balance (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February), GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q4), GDP Implicit Price (Q4), 2-Year Bond Auction

• Chile Copper Production (January), Industrial Production (January),  Manufacturing Production  (January), Retail Sales  (January)

• Mexico Unemployment Rate (January)

• USA Core PCE Price Index  (January), Personal Income  (January), Personal Spending  (January), Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/24), PCE Price Index  (January), Continuing Jobless Claims (February)/17, Core PCE Price Index  (January), Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Feb/24), Chicago PMI (February), Pending Home Sales  (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Feb/23), Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Goolsbee Speech, Kansas Fed Composite Index (February), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (February), 4- and 8-Week Bill Auction, 15-, 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/28), Fed Mester Speech

• Colombia Cement Production (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Pakistan’s New National Assembly will convene for the first time since the February 8 elections.  Former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to be selected as the new Prime Minister.

• South Korea will announce its birth rate for 2023.  The country has the lowest birthrate in the world and the new data is likely to show the birth rate at a record low of 0.72 and will likely continue to sink to 0.65 in 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at a meeting with local business leaders in Shiga, Japan.

• Japan Industrial Production Prel (January), Retail Sales (January), Foreign Bond Investment (Feb/24), Industrial Production Prel (January), Retail Sales (January), Stock Investment by Foreigners (Feb/24), 2-Year JGB Auction, Housing Starts (January), Construction Orders (January)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

• Australia Housing Credit (January), Retail Sales Prel (January), Building Capital Expenditure (Q4), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure (Q4), Private Capital Expenditure (Q4), Private Sector Credit (January)

• Singapore Bank Lending (January), Export Prices (January), Import Prices (January), PPI (January), 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (February), Industrial Production (February), Inflation Rate (February), Retail Sales (February), Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Philippines Budget Balance DEC

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

• Thailand Current Account (January), Private Investment and Consumption (January)

• Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)

• India Government Budget Value (January), Infrastructure Output (January), GDP Growth Rate (Q4), Fiscal Year GDP Growth Final 2023-24

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will give his annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly.   The speech is constitutionally required and will likely focus on the state of the Russian economy and the state of the War on Ukraine.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU education ministers in Brussels through March 1.

• In the UK, there will be a parliamentary by-election in Rochdale.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), Private Non-Farm Payrolls Final (Q4), Inflation Rate Prel (February), GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Inflation Rate Prel (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February), Household Consumption (January), PPI (January)

• Germany Retail Sales (January), Unemployed Rate (February), Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February), Bavaria CPI (February), Brandenburg CPI (February), Hesse CPI (February), North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February), Saxony CPI (February), Inflation Rate Prel (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February)

• Turkey GDP Growth Rate (Q4), MPC Meeting Summary, Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/23)

• Hungary PPI (January)

• Spain Inflation Rate Prel (February), Core Inflation Rate Prel (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February), Current Account DEC

• Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (Q4), KOF Leading Indicators (February)

• Italy Industrial Sales DEC

• Poland GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4)

• Slovenia CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (January), Mortgage Approvals (February), Mortgage Lending (January), M4 Money Supply (January), Net Lending to Individuals (January), Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

• Greece PPI (January), Retail Sales DEC

• Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February)

• Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), Unemployment Rate (Q4)

• Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (January), Private Sector Credit (January), PPI  (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Kenya Inflation Rate (February)

• South Africa Budget Balance (January)

Friday, March 1, 2024

Global

• Japan assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

• Today is the first day of the meteorological spring (winter in the Northern Hemisphere is almost over!).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the first deadline for the U.S. Congress to pass a set of funding bills or risk a government shutdown.

• President Joe Biden will host a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the G7 agenda (Italy is chairing the G7 this year), developments in North Africa, Ukraine, and closer transatlantic ties.

• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines hosts the Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller responds to a paper entitled “Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?” at the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Pursuing the Dual Mandate”  at the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, Stanford, California.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in panel, "AI and the Labor Market" before the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum hosted by the Chicago Booth School of Business.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook and real estate trends before the University of Florida's Kelley A. Bergstrom Real Estate Center 2024 Trends and Strategies Conference.

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February), GDP Growth Rate (Q4), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (January), Business Confidence (February), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Fiscal Balance (January)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February), ISM Manufacturing PMI (February), ISM Manufacturing Employment (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February), Construction Spending  (January), ISM Manufacturing New Orders/Prices (February), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final (February), Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (February), Michigan Current Conditions Final (February), Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (February), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count MAR/01, Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count MAR/01

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Peru Inflation Rate (February)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day, marking the day in 1919 when one of the first public displays of resistance against Japanese occupation occurred.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February), Building Permits (January)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (February), Commodity Prices (February)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (January), Jobs/applications ratio (January), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

• South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Rate (February), Tourist Arrivals (January)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), PPI (January)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), Business Confidence (February)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• China NBS Non-Manufacturing, Manufacturing, & General PMI (February), Caixin Manufacturing PMI (February)

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/23),

• Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

• Pakistan Balance of Trade (February), Inflation Rate (February), Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with leaders of the Federation of German Industries, the Federal Association of German Employers, and other business representatives to discuss ways of improving the German economy. 

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Italian President Sergio Mattarella in Rome, Italy.  He will also meet with Pope Francis.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Cardiff University Business School, Cardiff, UK.

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (February), Average Weekly Earnings (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Hungary Balance of Trade Final DEC, GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (January), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February), New Car Sales (February)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment Rate (January), Full Year GDP Growth 2024, Inflation Rate Prel (February), harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February), Government Budget 2023, New Car Registrations (February)

• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Rate (February), Unemployment Rate (January), CPI Flash (February)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February)

• Ukraine Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iran will hold elections for the 290-seat parliament and the 88-seat Assembly of Experts.  the Assembly of Experts serves to advise Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

• Turkey will host the 3rd Antalya Diplomacy Forum.  More than 20 heads of state and 80 ministers will attend the event, which runs through March 3.   The theme of the forum is “Advancing Diplomacy in Times of Turmoil.”

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Russia-Tanzania Conference will be hosted by the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Dar es Salaam. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February), Total New Vehicle Sales (February)

Saturday, March 2, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni for meetings in Ottawa.  Italy is chairing the G7 this year and her visit is to discuss Canada’s issues and concerns as well as to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain Unemployment Change (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Adwa Victory Day in Ethiopia, celebrating the country’s victory over Italy in 1896.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• El Salvador holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Bulgaria Liberation Day, celebrating the Treaty of San Stefano, recognizing the nation’s independence in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal has a constitutional deadline today to hold presidential elections (which they are likely to fail to do).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

February 26 - March 1, 2024

This coming week, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler may unveil is long-awaited and highly controversial proposed disclosure requirements for greenhouse gas emissions by corporations.  The draft has been circulated to the other SEC Commissioners.  It was reported this past week some of the more ambitious elements of the proposal have been pulled but industry is still bracing for a tough set of proposals, which is likely to face an immediate federal court challenge.   Among the reported changes, Gensler has dropped a requirement for U.S.-listed companies to disclose Scope 3 emissions which are emissions emitted by a company’s supply chain and the consumption of its products by customers.

Also this week, the New York Fed, in collaboration with the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the Federal Reserve Board, are hosting a two-day conference on counterparty risk.  The event will be yet another effort by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr to defend the Fed’s new bank capital rule.  Banking supervisors from Europe as well as a number of senior industry executives are going to participate.

Looking back at last week, it was a fairly quiet week as it was shortened in Washington by the President’s Day holiday.  But one major event of note was the Financial Stability Oversight Board (FSOC) meeting on Friday.  The readout from the meeting showed FSOC members were briefed on and had considerable discussions about the commercial real estate market and bank exposure.  Clearly, this is growing concern for regulators.

Additionally, SEC Chair Gary Gensler briefed the Council Chair on the SEC’s regulatory initiatives, including on the securities settlement cycle, central clearing and dealer registration, short-term funding markets, and private fund reporting.  

Below are all the significant public events we are looking at in the coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• There are no significant hearings or events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

• There are no significant hearings or events scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• February 27 -28 – The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in collaboration with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision at the Bank for International Settlement, will host a conference on counterparty credit risk management at the New York Fed.

• February 27, 9:05 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a virtual speech on “Counterparty Credit Risk” at the Conference on Counterparty Risk Management.

• March 1, 10:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller responds to a paper entitled “Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?” at the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

• ·March 1, 3:30 p.m. PST - Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Pursuing the Dual Mandate”  at the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, Stanford, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

• February 27 – March 2 – Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to São Paulo, Brazil, to participate in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings and events on the sidelines and then will continue to Santiago, Chile, for bilateral engagements.  

Securities and Exchange Commission

• February 27, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC hosts the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting.  The agenda can be found HERE.

• February 29, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

• March 1, 11:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its 2024 Investor Advocacy Clinic Summit in Washington, D.C. The agenda can be found HERE.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• February 28, 11:30 a.m. – The CFTC holds a closed meeting.

• February 29, 1:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat at FINRA’s DC office as a part of their Black History Month programming.

FINRA

• February 29, 1:00 p.m. – FINRA hosts CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat at FINRA’s DC office as a part of their Black History Month programming.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Export/Import Bank

• February 28, 3:00 p.m. – The ExIm Bank holds a virtual meeting to discuss EXIM policies and programs to provide competitive financing to expand United States exports and comments for inclusion in EXIM's Report to the U.S. Congress on Global Export Credit Competition.

World Bank/IMF

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events 

Trade Association Events/Public Events

• February 27, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance hosts an online event entitled “IIF Datatalk: Data Quality and Data Availability.”

• February 29, 8:00 a.m. – SIFMA hosts an event entitled “SIMFA and Deloitte Forum:  Digital Asset Reporting” in New York.

Think Tank Events

• February 27, 8:00 a.m. – The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., holds a discussion with Marc Rowan, co-founder and CEO of Apollo Global Management Inc.

• February 27, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Meeting climate goals through tax reform.”  Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Richard Rubin of the Wall Street Journal will have a fireside chat among other speakers.

• February 27, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institute holds a workshop entitled “Financial Markets Data and Research from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”   A number of senior CFTC economists will participate.

• February 27, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report: The magic of investment accelerations.”  M. Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group at the World Bank, and Kersten Stamm, an economist in the Prospects Group of the World Bank's Development Economics, will speak.

• February 29, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “Globalization, the US Economy, and Political Backlash.”  Lazard CEO Peter Orszag will speak.

 Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 23 - 25, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.  Or sign-up for our Substack “Perspectives” to get our latest work:

China

• “Tracking China’s Control of Overseas Ports”  Council on Foreign Relations Interactive Report

  This interactive map tracks China’s growing maritime influence through investments in strategic overseas ports. Users can plot the location of each port and view satellite images alongside detailed information on the share of Chinese ownership, the total amount of Chinese investment, and the port’s suitability for use by the Chinese military. China operates or has ownership in at least one port in every continent except Antarctica. Of the 101 projects, 92 are active, whereas the remaining 9 port projects have become inactive due to cancellation or suspension by the end of September 2023. Reasons for cancellation or suspension include environmental concerns, souring of political relations, financial problems, and security issues raised domestically and internationally. Suspended projects, such as China’s construction of the Khalifa Port in the United Arab Emirates, could resume construction.

Latin America

• “Exporting Autocracy: China’s Role in Democratic Backsliding in Latin American and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  This report seeks to more fully enumerate the nature of China’s impact on democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It posits two independent but correlated mechanisms through which China contributes to democratic backsliding. First, the PRC propagates its model of authoritarian governance through its soft power engagements in media, education, and people-to-people diplomacy, as well as through its security assistance, which often features tools enabling mass surveillance and the curtailment of civil and political rights. Second, China protects regimes undergoing democratic backsliding by providing economic and diplomatic cover even as these governments become increasingly isolated from the rest of the international system, in effect extending these governments beyond their natural lifespan. Having recognized the specific risk vectors China’s engagement poses in LAC, the report seeks to articulate the beginnings of a democracy-first grand strategy for the United States to pursue. Such a strategy should proceed along the lines of the “insulate, curtail, compete” framework outlined in a previous CSIS report. 
  

  “Challenges to Sheinbaum’s Fiscal Policy”   Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute

  Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo leads the race for the Mexican presidency, yet the complex political and fiscal legacy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), represents both an advantage and a burden to her campaign. While she aims for the continuity of her mentor’s key policies in education, energy, and economic development, Mexico’s current fiscal landscape leaves doubts on how her programs might be funded, requiring careful consideration and strategic policymaking.

Economics

• “Financial Markets’ Perceptions of the FOMC’s Data-Dependent Monetary Policy”  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Abstract: Over the past ten years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has repeatedly emphasized that future policy is data-dependent. In this Economic Commentary, we investigate how financial markets expected future interest rates to change with the release of new data on inflation and labor market conditions. We find that the surprises in economic indicators have a stronger effect on the 2-year Treasury yield than on the expected federal funds rate to be set in the next FOMC meeting. This implies that markets understand that under the data-dependent approach, policy decisions do not heavily rely on the most recent data or short-run fluctuations but, rather, rely more on the persistent trend of the economy. In addition, we observe that expected future interest rates have become more sensitive to surprises in inflation after 2022, suggesting that the FOMC’s determination to reduce inflation has been well-understood by the markets.
  

• “Trade War and Peace: U.S. – China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015 – 2050”  National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper

  Abstract: We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump. We also show that the trade response to the trade war is similar to the response to the 1980 liberalization that initially granted China access to U.S. markets at NTR terms and was expected to be quickly reversed.

Energy Markets

• “Sanctions on Russia and the Splintering of the World Oil Market”  American Enterprise Institute

  After the West’s imposition of sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, there is a larger share of world oil production under sanction than at any time in decades. Sanctions impose costs on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela by forcing them to sell oil below market prices. However, sanctions also provide benefits to countries that buy cheap oil. China, India, and Turkey have been major beneficiaries of cheaper oil. Sanctions also make oil markets less efficient and more opaque. Policymakers must calibrate current and future oil sanctions to maximize cost imposition on adversaries while limiting the extent to which they make oil markets more inefficient.

European Security Policy

• “The future of European defense and security”   McKinsey & Company

  Much has been said and written about Europe’s urgent need to build up its defense capabilities.  But what does that exactly mean?  What precisely does the EU need to do and what challenges do EU governments, and the defense and security sectors face to achieve an effective level of defense?  McKinsey takes a deep dive to find those answers in this study.

Charts of the Week

How Russia Uses China to Get Around Sanctions

The Bell – a truly independent Russian economic news source – reports on how, since most leading economies placed tough sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, Russian companies (and the Kremlin) have worked tirelessly to get around the sanctions.  And they have found China to be the best place to get much of what they need for home consumption – as well as obtaining a lot of products known as “dual purpose” items – e.g., for civilian and military use.

Russian imports from China reached a record $111 billion in 2023, according to Chinese customs data analyzed by The Bell — up 47% on 2022, and 65% higher than in 2021, the last full year before the invasion. 

High-tech goods are among the top three Chinese exports to Russia. That’s no surprise: under sanctions, many Russian companies had to find new sources of equipment, spare parts, electronics and vehicles. In 2023, Russia significantly increased its imports of computers from China, as well as compressors, machine tools and their spare parts, turbines, optical devices and other advanced manufacturing equipment. The Bell lays it out in these excellent charts below:

My Presentation to the Iowa Soybean Association and Interview with “The State of Soy” on India’s Promise

I was delighted to talk with Aaron Putze , Chief Officer, Strategy and Brand Management of the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) following my recent presentation at the ISA. We spoke of the global markets for soy and how India - now the largest country in the world, having surpassed China this past summer - is likely to become a major market for the US.

The Global Week Ahead

February 18 - 26, 2024

The coming week is one of sad anniversaries and a likely major geopolitical inflection point in the Middle East.  It is also a big week the U.S. presidential campaigns as to whether or not former President Donald Trump can lock up the Republican nomination for president.

First, to the anniversary:  Saturday will be the second anniversary of Russia’s (second) invasion of Ukraine.  We say “second” to remind readers President Vladimir Putin first militarily invaded the Donbas and Crimean regions of Ukraine in 2014, annexing them under Russian control.  After signing the Minsk Agreements in 2015 to cease military actions against Ukraine, he then broke those agreements when he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The major geopolitical inflection point we will be watching closely this week is Israel’s pending ground offensive against Hamas forces in Rafah, the last Palestinian refuge on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip.  Global leaders ranging from  President Joe Biden to numerous leaders who gathered at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend have strongly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to not press ahead with the assault, seeking ways to find a negotiated cease-fire in return for Israeli hostages held by Hamas.  As those negotiations have proven fruitless, it appears Netanyahu will press forward, likely to prove a turning point in Israeli-U.S. relations.

Staying on geopolitical events taking place this week, markets will watch closely as Brazil hosts a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Rio de Janeiro.  Brazil is the chair of the G20 in 2024, and Brazilian President Lula da Silva (“Lula”) appears determined to use the opportunity to bring greater world focus on Southern Tier issues ranging from hunger to sustainable development to having a more significant say in global governance.  Over the weekend, Lula inflamed relations with Israel by comparing the military campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust.  The situations in Gaza, the Red Sea, and Ukraine will be keen discussion points.  But with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attending the meetings, any new resolutions among foreign ministers aimed either at Russia or Iran are likely to be blocked.

Also, this coming week, the E.U. is expected to deploy 700 soldiers – mainly from Germany, France, and Italy – to support further military operations in the Red Sea against Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.  Germany already has a defense frigate participating in the joint operation with U.S. and U.K. naval ships.

Here in the U.S., the Republican Presidential Primary in South Carolina will be held Saturday.  Most observers see it as the last obstacle to former President Donald Trump’s path to renomination if he can beat former South Carolina Governor Nikki Hailey.  Current polls suggest Trump is well ahead of Hailey. 

The U.S. Congress is out of session for the Presidents Day holiday this week.   But when they return, they face yet another imminent deadline of March 1 to pass the 2024 budget – or another Continuing Resolution to keep the government open.  Additionally, House Republican leadership faces growing pressure also to take up and pass a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.  House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has said he does not intend to bring up the Senate-passed package for a vote unless it contains provisions providing greater security on the U.S. southern border.

Turning to the significant global economic and financial calendar this week, markets will focus on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and the European Central Bank’s minutes being released on Thursday.  Markets will also look at China’s monetary policy decision this Sunday before Chinese markets reopen Monday following the Lunar New Year holiday.  Otherwise, it is a relatively light economic release calendar this week. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 18, 2024 

Global 

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Doha, Qatar, for a follow-up meeting of Special Envoys from Member States and regional organizations on Afghanistan that he is convening on 18 and 19 February. The objective of the meeting is to discuss how to approach increasing international engagement in a more coherent, coordinated, and structured manner, including through consideration of the recommendations of the independent assessment on Afghanistan. Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas will travel to Vienna, Austria, to meet with People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong.  Mayorkas and Wang will discuss cooperation on counternarcotics as a follow-up to the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-PRC Counternarcotics Working Group. They will also discuss efforts to counter child sexual exploitation and abuse and other law enforcement priorities.  

• The Dominican Republican holds local elections. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• A bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators will visit Budapest, Hungary, in an attempt to convince Prime Minister Viktor Orban to ratify Sweden's NATO membership bid. The senators making the trip are Senator Jeanne Shaheen, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations; Senator Thom Tillis, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group;

• Senator Chris Murphy, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations; and Senator Chris Van Hollen, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Gambia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was granted its independence from the UK in 1965. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.  

Monday, February 19, 2024 

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. Nothing significant to report. 

• The International Criminal Court in the Hague holds a hearing on Israel’s policies in Gaza.

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• The US observes President’s Day, a national holiday.  Markets are closed, as is the federal government.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov travels to Havana, Cuba for high-level talks. Lavrov will then travel on to Venezuela to meet with President Nicolas Maduro and Vice President Delcy Rodriquez in advance of Maduro’s expected visit to Russia sometime this spring.  Lavrov will also use the trip to Venezuela to meet with a high-level delegation of Bolivian diplomats. He will then travel to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to participate in the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December), Business Confidence Report (February), BCB Focus Market Readout 

• Canada PPI Report (January), Raw Materials Prices (January) 

• Paraguay Interest Rate Decision Report 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan will host a Japan-Ukraine conference on economic reconstruction in Tokyo.

• Singapore hosts the Singapore Airshow, Asia’s biggest international aerospace and defense trade show.

• India and the European Union are due to hold a seventh round of free trade talks from Monday through Friday. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Current Account (Q4) 

• New Zealand Composite PCI (January), Services PSI (January) 

• Japan Machinery Orders (December), 52-Week Bill Auction 

• Indonesia Property Price Index (Q4) 

• Thailand Full Year GDP Growth, GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU is expected to approve the launch of a naval task force, joining with US and UK naval forces, to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi militant attacks.

commercial vessels.

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will launch her bid for a second term as EC President during an event hosted by her Christian Democratic Union party in Germany.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Berlin, Germany.  South Korea is seeking greater investment and trade opportunities in the EU and also is seeking greater German investment in South Korea.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the Ukraine War, the situation in the Sahel (and how to perhaps engage further with the region) and offer an exchange of views on Belarus. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through February 20 in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Spain Balance of Trade (December), Consumer Confidence (January) 

• Serbia CPI Report (January), Inflation Rate Report (January) 

• Belarus GDP Report (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized (Q4), Unemployment Rate Report (January) 

• Oman Inflation Rate 

• Qatar Inflation Rate (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization holds its 37th Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

• The second Canada-Africa Business Conference, organized by the Canada-Africa Chamber of Business in partnership with Kenya Private Sector Alliance, will take place in Nairobi through February 20.

• The Africa Agri Expo takes place in Nairobi with over 5,000 agribusiness and agri-professionals discussing topics including data-driven agriculture and sustainable agriculture. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Ivory Coast Inflation Report (January) 

• Nigeria Unemployment Rate (Q3) 

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January) 

Tuesday, February 20, 2024 

Global 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Brazil to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting.

• In New York, the trial of ex-Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez on drug trafficking charges begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Canada Inflation Rate (January), CPI Median (January)  

• USA CB Leading Index (January), 3-, 6-month, 52-week Bill Auction 

• Argentina Balance of Trade (January) 

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (January) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Jammu and Kashmir, his first trip to the province since the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which granted Jammu and Kashmir a semi-autonomous status.

• The INDUS X Conference will be held in New Delhi through February 21. Co-hosted by the US-India Business Council and the Society of Indian Defense Manufacturers in collaboration with the US Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defense.  The conference is seen as a significant step toward further building and accelerating the strategic defense partnership between the US and India. INDUS-X stands for “US-India Defense Accelerator Ecosystem” and was first launched in 2023 in Washington, D.C. in advance of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s State Visit to the United States.

• The Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development, hosted by the UN, will be held in Bangkok, Thailand. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 

• China Loan Prime Rate (February) 

• Japan 20-Year JGB Auction 

• Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Trade Reports (January 

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Singapore MAS 12- and 4-Week Bill Auction 

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (Feb/20) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU-Georgia Association Council meets in Brussels. Chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and Georgian Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze, they are expected to discuss Georgia’s EU accession path, political dialogue and reform, trade, and conflict resolution.  

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the rule of law in Poland.

• Polish farmers are expected to protest against EU measures to tackle climate change and the massive import of Ukrainian products.

• Economic Reports/Events – 

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies on the economy and monetary policy before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (January) 

• Euro Area Current Account (December), Construction Output (December) 

• Greece Current Account (December) 

• Italy Construction Output (December), Current Account (December) 

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January), Employment Growth (January), Industrial Production (January), PPI (January) 

• Great Britain 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 

• Germany 2-Year Schatz Auction 

• Turkey Central Government Debt Report (January) 

• Slovakia Current Account (December), Unemployment Rate (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is the anniversary of the Moroccan Arab Spring uprising.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (January) 

• Oman Inflation Rate (January), M2 Money Supply (December), Total Credit (December) 

• Israel Inflation Expectations (February) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The Cameroon–European Union Business Week will gather public and private sector stakeholders from both sides in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (December), Unemployment Rate (Q4) 

• Mozambique GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Wednesday, February 21, 2024 

Global 

• G20 Foreign Ministers meet in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil is chairing the G20 in 2024). They are likely to focus on Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).    

• In Nairobi, the UN Climate and Clean Air Conference 2024 will take place from 21 to 23 February, ahead of UNEA-6. The Conference will focus on the cost of inaction, highlighting ways to further scale up implementation of the Global Methane Pledge, Clean Air Flagship and Kigali Amendment, and collectively charting the course to 2025 and beyond. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party chair Mike Gallagher will lead a congressional delegation to visit Taiwanese President-elect William Lai in Taipei, Taiwan.

• The Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) 2024 meeting takes place in Washington, D.C. through February 24.  Former President Donald Trump will speak as will former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, Argentine President Javier Milei, and other conservative leaders.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C. 

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the Airports Council International CFO Summit hosted by the Regional Economic Information Network (REIN) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 

• Mexico Retail Sales (December) 

• US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes, USA Mortgage Reports (Feb/16), MBA Purchase Index (Feb/16), Redbook (Feb/17), 17-Week Bill Auction, 2-Year FRN Auction, 20-Year Bond, API Crude Oil Stock Change (February) 

• Canada New Housing Price Index (January), 10-Year Bond Auction  

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• APEC holds a meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Deputy Central Bankers in Arequipa, Peru.

• The Raisina Dialogue 2024 begins in New Delhi and runs through February 23.  The Dialogue is India’s premier geopolitical and geoeconomics conference.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Korea Business Confidence (February), PPI (January and Q4) 

• New Zealand PPI Report (Q4) 

• Japan Reuters Tankan (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January) 

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (January), Wage Price Index (Q4) 

• Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (January), Facility Rate (February), Lending Facility Rate (February) 

• India M3 Money Supply (Feb/09) 

• Thailand New Car Sales (January) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Russia's Federal Assembly will vote to suspend the country's participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through February 24 in Brussels.

• Doctors in England and Wales are expected to go on strike over wages until February 28. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable discussion entitled "Sustainability risks in the banking sector" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion entitled "Cyber and digital operational resilience: key pending issues (DORA CTPP oversight, EU and international cyber initiatives, digital infrastructure…" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024 organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra gives a speech at the Market News International Connect event entitled “Recent BoE Projections – Key Factors/Judgments” in London.

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, Euro Area New Car Registrations (January), 3- and 6-Month Auction, Consumer Confidence Flash (February) 

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (January), 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction, CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February) 

• Germany 10-Year Bund Auction 

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (December) 

• Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December) 

• Russia PPI (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December) 

• Lebanon Inflation Rate (January) 

• Qatar M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit Growth (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The second edition of Africa’s Green Economy Summit will be held in Cape Town, bringing together investors, African leaders, and policy-makers.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Inflation Rate (January), 2024/2025 Budget 

Thursday, February 22, 2024 

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• Newly re-elected Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele travels to the US to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland.

• The IM-1 lunar lander, designed by Intuitive Machines, the first privately financed mission to the moon, is scheduled to land on the lunar surface today.

St. Lucia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson gives remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Sources of Uncertainty in the Short Run and the Long Run” at the Annual Conference of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance (JRCPPF) – Empirical Macrofinance in the Long Run: New Insights on the Global Economy, Princeton, N.J. 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Notre Dame Club of Minnesota and the University of St. Thomas Finding Forward Speaker Series, Minneapolis, Minn. 

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before an event hosted by the University of Delaware Center for Economic Education. 

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a panel discussion on economic trends and outlook for 2024 and the growth of Minnesota's economy hosted by Northside Economic Opportunity Network (NEON) Community Conversations. 

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Economic Activity (December), Mid-Core Inflation Rate (February), Mid-Month Inflation Rate (February), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes  

• Canada Retail Sales (December) 

• USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January), Industrial Production (January), Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/17), S&P Global PMI Flash (February), Existing Home Sales (January), Existing Home Sales (January), Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/16), 4- and 8-Week Bill Auction, 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/21), 30-Year TIPS Auction 

• Argentina Economic Activity (December) 

• Uruguay Interest Rate Decision 

• Peru Current Account (Q4), GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January) 

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI Flash (February) 

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment, Jibun Bank PMI Flash, 3-Month Bill Auction 

• South Korea Interest Rate Decision 

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending (January) 

• Indonesia Current Account (Q4) 

• India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (February), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, HSBC PMI Flash (February) 

• Hong Kong Consumer Price Index CPI (January), Inflation Rate (January) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The European Commission, NAE Normandie and CCI Normanide host a conference on Europe’s Naval Sector in Cherbourg, France.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable discussion entitled "Diversity in the EU banking system: contribution to financing needs, future challenges and way forward" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion entitled "EU bank crisis management framework: can an agreement be achieved for medium-sized banks?" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Monetary Policy meeting minutes released. 

• Hungary Gross Wage (December) 

• France Business Confidence (February), Business Climate Indicator (February), HCOB Composite PMI Flash (February) 

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January) 

• Germany HCOB PMI Flash (February) 

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (January) 

• Poland Retail Sales (January), M3 Money Supply (January) 

• Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Great Britain S&P Global PMI Flash (February), Consumer Confidence (February), Car Production (January) 

• Euro Area Inflation Rate (January), CPI Final (January), Eurogroup Meeting, HCOB PMI Flash 

• Ireland Wholesale Prices (January) 

• Serbia PPI (January) 

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing and Lending Rate (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/16) 

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (February) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Manufacturing Production (December), Manufacturing PMI (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Algeria celebrates the National Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, marking the anniversary of the protests that united the country in 2019.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

• Ghana PPI (January)  

Friday, February 23, 2024 

Global 

• The UN General Assembly will hold its 56th plenary meeting. On the agenda is the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.    

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.   

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Argentinian President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.

• Guyana celebrates Republic Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February), Federal Tax Revenues (January) 

• Chile PPI (January) 

• Canada Budget Balance (December), Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (January) 

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (February), Leading Indicator (January) 

• Mexico Current Account (Q4) 

• Paraguay PPI (January) 

• USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (Feb/23) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is the Emperor’s Birthday in Japan. It is a public holiday, and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• New Zealand Retail Sales (Q4) 

• China House Price Index (January), FDI (YTD) (January) 

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January) 

• Malaysia Inflation Rate (January), Leading Index (December) 

• Singapore Inflation Rate (January), CPI (January) 

• Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision  

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/16), Deposit Growth (Feb/09), Bank Loan Growth (Feb/09) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day (also known as Men’s Day due to compulsory military service for most Russian men).  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in the Eurogroup meeting in Ghent, Brussels. She will hold a press conference afterward. Later, she will participate in an informal ECOFIN meeting. 

• ECB Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture entitled "Has the fight against inflation been won?" at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy. Later in the day, she gives a speech at Forum Analysis in Milan. 

• ECB Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel discussion entitled "European financial stability: what are the main emerging risks? (strains from indebtedness, banking risks …)?" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024 organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectation (January)  

• Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Ifo Expectations (February), Ifo Current Conditions (February), Ifo Business Climate (February) 

• Turkey Capacity Utilization (February), Business Confidence (February), Tourist Arrivals (January) 

• Hungary Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), Industrial Production (January) 

• Poland Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January), PPI (January), Business Confidence (February) 

• Italy BTP Short-Term and Index-Linked Auction  

• Belarus Industrial Production (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Saturday, February 24, 2024 

Global 

• Today is the 2nd anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• South Carolina holds the Republican Presidential Primary. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Cambodia Senate Elections are held. 58 seats are up for election, and 49 are expected to go to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and nine to the opposition Candlelight Party.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. will open its first Japan factory in the southwestern prefecture of Kumamoto. The world's biggest chip foundry wants to shift production away from Taiwan amid growing geopolitical uncertainties.  

• In Taiwan, the Lantern Festival is celebrated, marking the end of the country’s lunar new year.

Economic Reports/Events – 

•   Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU will likely announce a new round of sanctions on Russia-linked entities before the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

• Today is Estonia's Independence Day.

• Belarus Parliamentary Election  

Economic Reports/Events – 

•   Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, February 25, 2024 

Global 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• Guyana hosts the 46th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

• Former President Jair Bolsonaro has called on supporters to protest in São Paulo on February 25. Federal police accuse Bolsonaro of plotting to stay in power regardless of 2022 election results.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Cambodia holds legislative elections.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Early voting begins in Russia for the presidential election.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Abu Dhabi through February 29. The meeting will be held on the margins of the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 26 to 29 February 2024. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is Kuwait National Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Composite Economic Index (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Please let us know if you have any questions or if we can be helpful in any way.