Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

January 14 - 21, 2024

Political events will dominate the week as the US presidential primary season officially begins with the Republican Iowa Caucus on Monday.  Despite an expected negative 9-degree Fahrenheit temperature and days of near-blizzard conditions, Iowans will bravely venture out to schools, fire stations, and neighbors' living rooms to debate who should be the Republican presidential candidate.  And then, in a fascinating tradition, they hand out pieces of paper, and everyone votes for whom they want.  Results then are called into a central counting center.  Former President Donald Trump is leading by a massive margin in the latest polls.  But if Iowa does anything, it surprises with whom they choose.  So, Monday night could be a night of surprises.

The other significant political event is the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.   While the world's leading CEOs (estimated at close to 1,600) continue to descend in droves on the little village nestled in the Alps, it will also draw an estimated 60 heads of state and senior government leaders.  In particular, we will be watching US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French President Emmanuel Macron using the forum to intensify their support for Ukraine.  Indeed, the situation in the Red Sea and its impact on supply chains (coupled with the ongoing drought in Panama, which has dramatically slowed commercial travel through the Panama Canal) will be a significant point of discussion.

While this is happening, and despite it being a federal holiday on Monday, the US Congress will likely (hopefully) pass another funding extension to keep the federal government running as they continue to work on getting appropriations finished.  Additionally, this coming week, we will likely see the unveiling of an estimated $70 billion bipartisan tax policy agreement.  We may also see the outlines of a bipartisan border security deal that would unlock a vote on Ukraine and Israeli defense aid. 

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look closely at China's GDP numbers and industrial production figures for any sign of economic improvement.  Markets will also look at the Fed's Beige Book released this week, US retail sales, industrial production figures, and the University of Michigan survey.   Looking at Europe, the Eurogroup will meet in Brussels, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on multiple occasions in Davos.  Finally, everyone will be observing oil prices as the Red Sea situation is highly likely to escalate in some way.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Denmark’s Queen Margrethe II will formally abdicate, allowing Crown Prince Frederik to become the King.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • China’s foreign minister Wang Yi is on a four-nation African tour in his first overseas trip of the year. He will visit Egypt, Tunisia, Togo, and Cote d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, January 15, 2024 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (November), New Motor Vehicle Sales (November), Wholesale Sales (November), Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

  • Brazil Business Confidence (January), BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • Japan Machine Tool Orders (December’

  • India WPI Food Index (December), WPI Fuel Index (December), WPI Manufacturing (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (December), Full Year GDP (2023)

  • Italy Balance of Trade (November)

  • Ireland Construction PMI (December), Balance of Trade (November)

  • Hungary Construction Output (November)

  • Poland Inflation (December)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

  • Russia FX Reserves (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

  • Turkey Budget Balance (December)

  • Israel Unemployment (December), Inflation (December)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

  • The UN will host regional launches of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024, which will be organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). The United Nations Information Center in Moscow will hold a WESP briefing on the regional outlook for the Commonwealth of Independent States and South-Eastern Europe. The United Nations Information Center in Mexico will hold a WESP briefing on the global outlook and the regional outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Hundreds of US federal government employees are expected to stage a walk-out in protest over President Biden’s handling of the Gaza War.

  • A civil defamation jury trial begins in Manhattan federal court against Trump over his 2019 denial of journalist Jean Carroll’s claim that he raped her.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan PPI (December)

  • South Korea Import/Export Prices (December)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December), Building Permits (November), Private House Approvals (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

  • Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

  • Germany Inflation (December), CPI (December), Inflation (December), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January), ZEW Current Conditions (January)

  • UK Employment (November),

  • Italy Inflation (December), CPI (December)

  • Ireland CPI (December), Inflation (December)

  • Belarus Industrial Production (December)

  • Poland Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel GDP (Q3)

  • Qatar Inflation (December)

  • Turkey Auto Production (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The IMF’s executive board meets to approve a deal with Kenya unveiled last November that will grant it $938mn in new funds.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Food Inflation (December)

 

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Unemployment (December), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q4), House Price Index (December)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)

  • Indonesia Loan Growth (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December), Services PMI (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The European Parliament will outline its expectations for the 1 February special European Council.  They will also discuss Hungary and frozen EU funds with Presidents Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. A resolution on Hungary will be put to a vote on January 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • France Budget Balance (November)

  • Russia Current Account (Q4)

  • Belarus GDP (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan Inflation (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Former Sierra Leone President Ernest Bai Koroma goes to court on charges of treason in connection with a failed coup in November 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Retail Sales (November)

 

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give brief remarks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber board of directors meeting.  At Noon, Bostic will speak on the 2024 economic outlook before the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2024 Economic Outlook lunch.

  • US Jobless Claims (January 13), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Philly Fed Business Conditions (January), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January), Building Permits (December), Housing Starts (December), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (January 12), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (January 12)

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Brazil and Jamaica through Jan. 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

China FDI (December)

  • Japan Machinery Orders (November)

  • Australia Employment Change (December), Capacity Utilization (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Kazakhstan Industrial Production (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey FX Reserves (January 12)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (November), Mining Production (November), Building Permits (November)

  

Friday, January 19, 2024 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to participate in discussion on "Bank Regulation" before the Responsible AI Symposium: Advancing a Blueprint for Tech Equity" hosted by the National Fair Housing Alliance.

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in a fireside chat before the hybrid event, "A Future Outlook: Innovation & Economic Growth in San Diego"

  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Banker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January 19), Existing Home Sales (December)

  • Canada Retail Sales (November)

  • Mexico Retail Sales (November)

  • Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Inflation (December), Tertiary Industry Index (November)

  • India FX Reserves (January 12)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

  • Hong Kong Business Confidence (Q1)

  • Kazakhstan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Peter Pellegrini, the leader of Slovakia's Hlas party and an ally of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, will announce his candidacy for Slovakia's presidential election in March 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation Expectations (January), Leading Indicator (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (December)

 

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM) spacecraft will attempt a lunar landing.  This would make Japan the fifth nation to successfully land a space vehicle on the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

January 15 - 19, 2024

It may be a federal holiday on Monday, but the remaining four days of the week will be busy and quite interesting for the Washington regulatory world.  

First, we would highlight the battle outside and inside the Federal Reserve on the proposed bank capital rule, which intensifies this week as Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a U.S. Chamber of Commerce-sponsored conference critical of the proposal.   Bowman has intensified her criticism of the 1,087-page plan quarterbacked by Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr.  Barr has been barnstorming the speaking circuit lately, defending the plan, the most recent being a talk he gave in Washington last week (which, interestingly and oddly, was never added to the official Federal Reserve Board calendar of speaking events). 

At that event, Barr seemed to relent a bit on the outcome of the proposal, saying the Fed is taking the comment period very seriously and that “it will help us, I think, shape a better rule – make sure we get the calibration right for mortgage products, for credit card products, for consumer products.”

The Fed (and Barr) will co-host a conference this week with MIT (at MIT) on cybersecurity and banking, which should prove informative of where the Fed plans to go on tightening bank cyber requirements.

Also, this coming week, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will do a fireside chat at the left-of-center consumer rights organization Public Citizen on the future of AI in finance and how it might be regulated.

Meanwhile, the SEC’s proposed climate disclosure rules come under the microscope at a House Financial Services Subcommittee hearing.  House Republicans have made pushing back on ESG in general in finance – and the regulations regulators are contemplating around it – a top priority in 2024.

Below is a listing of all the issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events.   Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

 

House of Representatives

  

U.S Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

 

U.S. Treasury Department

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Securities and Exchange Commission

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

  • 9:30 a.m. EST/2:30 p.m. GMT+1 – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat on U.S. innovation and regulation at GBBC’s 7th Annual Blockchain Central Davos in Davos, Switzerland.

  • 10:30 a.m. EST/4:30 GMT+1 – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will be recognized at “Women Who Lead” and participate in a panel discussion, “Crypto at a Crossroads: Future-proofing Digital Assets” at Bloomberg House Davos, in Davos, Switzerland.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • January 18, 9:30 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will offer remarks on bank liquidity at Columbia Law School in New York City. A question-and-answer session will follow his remarks.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

National Credit Union Administration

 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

Farm Credit Administration

  • No significant events are scheduled at this time.

 

 

 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events

  • January 17, 8:00 a.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets holds a discussion on "Protect Main Street Lending," focusing on Basel III regulations that would increase the amount of capital that large banks must hold. Representative Andy Barr (R-KY-6), Chairman of the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy, and Representative Bill Foster (D-IL-11), Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy, will both speak in the morning.  In the afternoon, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a fireside chat on the subject.

 

  • January 17, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

 

Think Tanks/Academic Events

 

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reading

January 12 - 14, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

 

Global

  • “Top Ten Global Risks for 2024”  The Stimson Center

    In the 7th edition of their annual “Top Ten Global Risks,” the Stimson Center conducted an exercise in foresight drawn from their forecasting experience at the U.S. intelligence community’s National Intelligence Council. In their previous forecast, they focused on the proliferation of small wars, food insecurity, developing-country debt, and growing climate-change impacts — an ongoing polycrisis, entangled events and developments linked to and cascading off each other — is emblematic of our times: The post-World War II global system that the U.S. engineered is unraveling. Amidst this disorder and strife, even more signs of distress will surface in 2024.

 

Taiwan/China

  • “The Taiwan that China wants is vanishing”  BBC

    In Taiwan, there are also 600,000 or so indigenous peoples who trace their ancestry back thousands of years to China. And then there is a younger, ambivalent generation that is wary of questions about identity. They feel Taiwanese but see no need for Taiwan to declare independence.  They want peace with China, they want to do business with it, but they have no desire to ever be part of it.

 

 

  • “China’s Global Energy Interconnection: Exploring the Security Implications of a Power Grid Developed and Governed by China”  Rand Corporation

    In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping endorsed a new initiative, known as the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI), that could help solve humanity's pressing energy and climate dilemmas through the development of a global power grid. The GEI would connect remote renewable sources of energy to global consumption centers using ultra-high-voltage power transmission lines spanning continents and smart technologies. This way, peak demand for electricity in the evening in eastern China, for example, could be met using solar power at noon in central Asia, matching supply and demand across countries and continents more efficiently.  On paper, the proposal presents many benefits. However, concerns about China's intentions and the political, security, and economic implications of a China-led GEI also exist.

 

The United States

  • “National Defense Industrial Strategy”  US Department of Defense

    The National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) – the first of its type to be produced by the Department of Defense – provides a path that builds on recent progress while remedying remaining gaps and potential shortfalls in the US Industrial base and workforce.  The report also seeks to answer the question: How does the Defense Department prioritize and optimize defense needs in a competitive landscape undergirded by geopolitical, economic, and technological tensions?

 

  • “Empire or Republic? The Choice in ‘24”  GoodFellows Podcast/Hoover Institution

    Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane also discuss the odds of Cold War 2 morphing into World War III; whether economic conditions will overshadow fearmongering in a grim Trump-Biden referendum (in Niall’s words: the choice of “empire or republic”); the best use of this leap year’s spare day; plus why King Charles III would choose to break with tradition by spending a “dry” January in a very wet Scotland.

 

Russia

  • “Challenges of Export Control Enforcement: How Russia Continues to Import Components for its Military Production”  Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions and the KSE Institute

    This analysis shows that, while export controls have had some effect on trade flows, Russia continues to be able to import large amounts of goods needed for military production.  Since the imposition of restrictions, supply chains have adapted, and most of the items in question now reach Russia via intermediaries in third countries, including China.  Almost half of the imports in the first ten months of 2023 consisted of goods that were produced on behalf of companies from coalition countries, including major enforcement challenges.

Yemen 

  • “Houthi anti-ship missile systems: getting better all the time”   International Institute for Strategic Studies

    Over just a few years, Houthi rebels in Yemen have amassed a remarkably diverse array of anti-ship weaponry, incorporating both cruise and ballistic missiles, which they have recently used to threaten shipping in the Red Sea. The critical role that Iran has played in this build-up raises broader questions about Tehran’s regional strategy.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

January 7 - 14, 2024

The most significant event for markets globally in the coming week is without a doubt Taiwan's presidential elections on January 13.   The last set of polls to be released suggest it will be a close race. Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, was leading Kuomintang (KMT) Party candidate Hou Yu-ih by five points – but Hou and the KMG appeared to be moving up in the polls. Public polling is banned by law for ten days before the election to avert disinformation campaigns (mainly from China), which could confuse voters, so the last set of polls to be released was on January 2. Markets will closely watch Beijing's reaction to the election, especially if the DPP wins the presidency. Beijing sees the DPP as the most resistant to reunification, and the KMT is seen as more open to the idea.  For an excellent preview of the elections, we recommend watching this discussion led by our colleague and Brookings Institution Director of the Thornton China Center, Ryan Hass.

Also next week, the situation in Gaza will continue to dominate headlines as leading Western diplomats – including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock crisscross the Middle East seeking to restart negotiations over the release of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas as well as trying to reduce growing tensions in the region which have intensified in the last week following the killing of senior Hamas militant leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon (enraging Iranian-proxy militia Hezbollah leadership who Nasrallah was under the supposed protectorate of). 

Additionally, markets are watching closely for what will happen in the coming week in the Red Sea to whether Houthi forces will attempt to ramp up attacks on commercial shipping.  The spot rate for shipping goods between Asia and Europe has jumped 173% since mid-December. 

Here in the US, Congress returns late Monday night following the Christmas and New Year break to face an intense two weeks to figure out appropriations bills or face a government shutdown. At this point, we see it as almost impossible they will successfully get what needs to be done, and unless they approve another short-term budget extension (which House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) opposes), a shutdown is likely. 

Added to this is the ongoing and time-sensitive vote for a military aid package to Ukraine and Israel. A vote has been complicated by Republicans' demands that US border security and immigration provisions be included. Senate Democrats and Republicans have been bitterly split on how – and if – such provisions can be achieved.

Moving to the global economic outlook, markets will focus on the US inflation report later this week and inflation reports from Japan and China. China will also be reporting trade data later in the week. Looking at Europe, the UK will report GDP figures while Germany reports important trade figures and factory orders.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 


Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.


Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, January 8, 2024

Global

  • The IMF Executive Board meets to review the extended credit facility to Mozambique.


Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

  • US LMI Logistics Managers Index (December), Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Consumer Credit Change (November), Used Car Prices (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Mexico Consumer Sentiment (December)

  • Chile Inflation (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (December)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (November)

  • El Salvador Inflation (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FX Reserves (December)

  • Philippines Industrial Production (November)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (December)

  • Singapore FX Reserves (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (December), Retail Sales (November), Consumer Confidence (December), Consumer Inflation (December), Industrial Sentiment (December), Retail Sales (November), Selling Price Expectations (December), Services Sentiment (December)

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • France FX Reserves (December)

  • UK BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

  • Romania Retail Sales (November)

  • Hungary Retail Sales (November)

  • Switzerland Inflation (December), Retail Sales (November), CPI (December)

  • Slovakia Retail Sales (November)

  • Bulgaria Retail Sales (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • German airline Lufthansa will resume flights to and from Tel Aviv.  They had suspended service after the attack by Hamas on civilians in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) chaired by Ghana will meet.  They are expected to discuss the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. 

The semi-autonomous Puntland State in Somalia is expected to choose a new President.  There has been widespread violence leading up to the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa FX Reserves (December) ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

Tanzania Inflation (December)

 

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

In Peru, protesters will demonstrate to commemorate protesters killed in clashes with security forces in January 2023. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Redbook (January 6), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January), API Crude Oil Stock Change (January 5)

  • Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Building Permits (November)

  • Mexico Inflation (December), Auto Exports (December), Auto Production (December)

  • Colombia Inflation (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Household Spending (November), CPI (December)

  • South Korea Current Account (November)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Italy Unemployment (November)

  • Australia Building Retail (November), Building Permits (November)

  • Philippines Unemployment (November)

  • Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Unemployment (November)

  • Germany Industrial Production (November)

  • France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

  • Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Hungary Budget Balance (December), Industrial Production (November), Balance of Trade (November)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Switzerland Unemployment (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (November), Unemployment Rate (November)

  • Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)

  • Greece Balance of Trade (November)

  • Ukraine Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Sales (December)

  • Israel Business Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

  • The World Economic Forum’s (WEC) Global Risks Report is published in advance of the WEC World Economic Forum being held in Davos next week.

  • The IMF Executive Board meets to review the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility to Jordan.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • CNN will host a presidential primary in Iowa in advance of the Iowa Presidential Caucus on January 15.

  • The US House Homeland Security Committee is expected to commence impeachment proceedings against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will make keynote remarks at "2024 Economic Outlook with New York Fed President John C. Williams" at the New York Fed.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 5), Wholesale Inventories (November), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (January 5)

  • Brazil Car Production (December)

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

  • El Salvador PPI (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Average Cash Earnings (November), Overtime Pay (November)

  • South Korea Unemployment (December)

  • Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

  • Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), FDI (October)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

  • Malaysia Unemployment (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Spain Investor Day in Madrid, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in a virtual Q&A on X.

  • France Industrial Production (November)

  • Italy Retail Sales (November)

  • Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

  • Greece Industrial Production (November)

  • Ireland Unemployment (December)

  • Slovakia Industrial Production (November)

  • Bulgaria Construction Output (November), Industrial Production (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (November), Unemployment (November), Participation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Constitutional Court of the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to formally certify the results of the recent election, confirming that incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi has, in fact, been elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Global

  • The International Court of Justice is expected to hold a hearing in response to South Africa’s accusation that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.  The hearing is expected to last through January 12. 

  • The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, is due to make his initial court appearance on tax charges in Los Angeles, where he will be arraigned on three felony and six misdemeanor tax offenses.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Core Inflation (December), CPI (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 6), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (January 5), Monthly Budget Statement (December)

  • Brazil Inflation (December)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (November)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

  • Argentina Inflation (December)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Pakistan’s Finance Ministry meets with the IMF to discuss the release of the next $700 million tranche as part of its loan program to the country.

  • Representatives from the International Monetary Fund will visit Sri Lanka for an economic assessment.

  • China New Yuan Loans (December), M2 Money Supply (December), Outstanding Loan Growth (December), Total Social Financing (December)

  • Japan FX Reserves (December), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)

  • South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (November)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Economic Bulletin

  • Germany Current Account (November)

  • Italy Industrial Production (November)

  • Hungary PPI (December)

  • Spain Industrial Production (November)

  • Slovakia Construction Output (November)

  • Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Belarus Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (December)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (January 5)

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Manufacturing Production (November) 

 

Friday, January 12, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat before the virtual 2024 Regional Economic Conditions Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

  • US PPI (December), Quarterly Grain Stocks – Soy/Corn/Wheat (December), WASDE Report, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January 12)

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (December), PPI (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Japan Current Account (November), Bank Lending (December), Eco Watchers Survey (December)

  • India Inflation (December), Manufacturing Production (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 29), FX Reserves (January 5)

  • Australia Home Loans (November), Investment Lending for Homes (November)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Sri Lanka PPI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip Lane will give a speech followed by a Q&A at the REBUILD Annual Conference - Post-Pandemic Economic Governance and Next Generation EU in Dublin, Ireland.

  • France Inflation (December), Household Production (December)

  • UK GDP (November), Goods Trade Balance (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

  • Spain CPI (December) Inflation (December)

  • Poland Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (November)

  • Greece Inflation (December)

  • Hungary Inflation (November)

  • Serbia CPI (December), Inflation (December)

  • Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (November), Inflation (December), Current Account (November)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)
    Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Current Account (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3)

  • Oman M2 Money Supply (November)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ghana Inflation (December)

  • Botswana Inflation (December)

  • Mozambique Inflation (December)

  • Angola Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December) 

 

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Vehicle Sales (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Sunday, January 14, 2024 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Comoros holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Denmark’s Queen Margrethe II will formally abdicate, allowing Crown Prince Frederik to become the King.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

January 8 - 12, 2024

Welcome back, and we hope you had a wonderful Holiday break!  Washington is slowly returning to work (this week has been pretty dead here).  But next week, it begins to rev up again, particularly with Congress returning to work on Tuesday, where they once again grapple over unfinished appropriation bills, funding for Ukraine and Israel, and the always contentious issues of border security and immigration.

Looking at financial services issues, we note two Congressional hearings scheduled for next week.  The first is a House Financial Services Committee Subcommittee hearing examining the Department of Labor’s proposed Fiduciary Rule (which the securities industry strongly opposes).  The second is another Financial Services Subcommittee oversight hearing, this one pointedly looking at the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) and the “Regulatory Whiplash” FSOC causes with its “Ever-Changing Designation Framework.”

Also of note is that next week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give a speech at the FinCEN Headquarters on the newly implemented Beneficial Ownership regulations.  The rules continue to attract strong opposition from a number of powerful members of Congress as well as leading small business lobbying groups, and Yellen is ramping up Treasury’s defense of the rules. 

Also, this coming week, global antitrust oversight will come into focus in Palo Alto, California, as E.U. Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager and U.K. Competition and Markets Authority CEO Sarah Cardell will both give major addresses.  Both are also expected to hold sideline meetings with leading hi-tech CEOs – including the CEOs of Alphabet, Apple, Broadcom, and Nvidia –  to discuss ongoing investigations and concerns about U.S. Big Tech operations in Europe. This comes as it appears the US Justice Department is moving closer to filing a massive antitrust case against Apple.

Finally, we would flag what will likely prove to be a fascinating post-mortem discussion of the downfall of Credit Suisse at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Eva Hüpkes, the Secretary General of the International Association of Deposit Insurers and a member of Switzerland’s Expert Group on Banking Stability, will be sharing her insights into what happened.

Below is a listing of issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events.   Please let us know if you have any questions. 

 

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

 

  • January 11, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Stopping the Flow of Fentanyl: Public Awareness and Legislative Solutions.” Witnesses will include Patrick Yoes, National President, Fraternal Order of Police; Christopher J. Urben, Managing Director, Nardello & Co.,  and Assistant Special Agent in Charge (Retired), Special Operations Division, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.  It is expected a key focus of the hearing will be money laundering and how the Fentanyl trade handles money.

 

House of Representatives

 

 

 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

 

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

  • There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

 

U.S. Treasury Department

Securities and Exchange Commission

  • January 11, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

  •   There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

  • There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

  • There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

 

Farm Credit Administration

 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

 

 

Think Tanks

 

 

 

  

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list. 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

January 5 - 7, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

 

US Primaries

  • “The Iowa Caucuses, Explained”  The Voting Booth Podcast/American Enterprise Institute

    The Iowa Caucuses, the first-in-the-nation presidential primary vote, are unique. It is not a primary like virtually every other state conducts.  And it is run in a very community way, where people come together – sometimes even as small a group as a gathering in someone’s living room – to choose the candidate they want for the Republican and Democratic nomination – usually by simply scribbling names down on a piece of paper.  But there are even more fascinating nuances to the Iowa Caucus. In this fascinating podcast, Co-hosts John Fortier and Don Palmer are joined by Alan Ostergren, an election law attorney in Iowa, to explain how it all works.

 

Geoeconomics

  • “The Coming AI Economic Revolution”  Michael Spence/James Manyika, Foreign Affairs

    By the beginning of the next decade, the shift to AI could become a leading driver of global prosperity. The prospective gains to the world economy derive from the rapid advances in AI—now further expanded by generative AI, or AI that can create new content, and its potential applications in just about every aspect of human and economic activity. If these innovations can be harnessed, AI could reverse the long-term declines in productivity growth that many advanced economies now face.

 

  • “Artificial Intelligence and the Clustering of Human Capital: the Risks for Europe” European Centre for International Political Economy

    This paper argues that Europe trails the global frontier of productivity growth, and the region’s trend is sluggish.  Much prospective economic growth for Europe is likely to come from AI and its adoption by European firms, which is projected to shoot up the productivity trend.  For such AI-generated growth to work, high levels of human capital need to be available for firms, in particular, Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduates.  However, much of this human capital for AI is leaving Europe and the region experiences a net outflow when it comes to the skills required to make AI work.  Moreover, the spread of both human capital and AI is very uneven within Europe, with some in the West spearheading whilst others in the East are trailing.

    This paper shows that those regions in Europe that successfully have invested in human capital in the past explain more than one-third of AI adoption by their firms a decade later. Furthermore, this persistent trend is driven by the most human capital-intense firms as they explain more than 50 percent of the observed adoption of AI across Europe.  The clustering of human capital is very persistent over time and those that lag in human capital now will weigh down Europe’s ability to generate AI-related growth in the future.  This will likely have long-lasting effects for Europe as a whole, defining its capacity to catch up to the global frontier or amplifying the region’s slow-moving growth and productivity trend.  Policy makers who are serious about creating growth in the future on the back of AI should therefore invest in human capital now, or else Europe will further fall behind.

 

Russia

  • “The Cost of the Ukraine War for Russia”   The Rand Corporation

    In this report, RAND researchers present estimates of what costs Russia is incurring as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. As of September 2022, researchers estimated military costs reached $40 billion. Full-year 2022 gross domestic product losses amounted to between $81 billion and $104 billion and full-year financial capital destruction reached $322 billion. Direct military spending may amount to almost $132 billion through 2024. Over the long term, even with a stalemated war, Russia's economy and the standard of living of its people are likely to decline. The main factor sustaining Russia's economy is the export revenue it earns from oil and gas sales. Despite these significant economic losses, RAND researchers judged these costs to be sustainable for the next several years.

 

  • “A Roadmap to Russia’s 2024 Presidential Election”  Foreign Policy Research Institute

    With four months to go until the presidential elections in Russia, the Kremlin seems to still be firmly holding the reins of political institutions.  It has also sought to reduce its dependence on regional power brokers and officials.  So what can markets expect in the coming months as we approach a historic almost-certain relection of President Putin?

 

  • “Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia – But Some Remain” Yale School of Management

    In this recently updated report, the Yale School of Management details how more than 1,000 companies have publicly announced they were voluntarily curtailing operations in Russia. But not all Western companies have done so.  In this report, Yale gives a school-style letter scale of A-F for completeness of withdrawal.

 

The Eastern Mediterranean 

  • “Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitcal, Security and Energy Dynamics” International Institute for Strategic Studies

    In recent decades, the Eastern Mediterranean basin has emerged as a strategic flashpoint. Historical grievances, regional conflicts, maritime disputes, defense-modernization drives, rivalry over energy resources and export routes, and worsening transnational threats cyclically come to a head to produce geopolitical ripple effects. The vast imbalance of power between the various players, the relevance of Mediterranean energy deposits since Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the renewed interest of major external powers have inflamed dormant fault lines and fuelled active battlefields. No single player, or set of players, appears able to dominate this space. Instead, its mix of powerful and weak states, as well as non-state armed groups of varying strength and ambitions, guarantees constant realignments, brinkmanship, and competition.

 

Chart of the Week 

China’s Youth Unemployment: The Missing Millions

In August 2023, Beijing’s National Statistics Bureau announced the latest young unemployment figures, which hit a record high of 21.3% percent (June).   This was an increase from 20.8% in May and 20.4% in April.  In the release, the Bureau also announced they would suspend all future releases of youth unemployment.   

Separately, in July, Caixin, one of China’s most prestigious magazines, cited a study from Peking University suggesting the real youth unemployment number could be as high as 46.5% if statistics included 16 million young people who chose not to look for work or who lived with their parents.

So what is the real number?  Whatever it actually is, it is almost assuredly much higher than reported and a true internal political risk for the Xi government.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

December 31, 2023 - January 7, 2024

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

2023 now comes to a close, and we welcome 2024, hoping and praying for peace and prosperity for all. We won’t be writing a retrospective of 2023 - there is plenty of that sort of analysis flying around - and keep our focus on what is ahead. The week ahead will be, overall (at least so far), a quiet week on both the geopolitical and global economic fronts.

Beginning with the geopolitical outlook, all the major international bodies of importance to the markets will see new leadership. On January 1st, Belgium assumed the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, and Russia took the chair of the BRICS as several new members officially joined (although Argentina formally rejected an invitation to join late last week). Italy takes the chair of the G7, Brazil takes the chair of the G20, Laos takes the chair of ASEAN, and (for the next month) France takes the chair of the UN Security Council.

How each of these countries successfully presses their respective geopolitical vision of the world - or not — will be important to markets in 2024. While changes can be seen as incremental, they can also, at times, be massive. And there is little doubt already that Russia will push hard to use the BRICS to drive a wider wedge between the Global South and the West, while Brazil will use the G20 chair as a means to elevate the Global South and Latin America’s role in geopolitics.

Looking regionally, tensions and violence in the Middle East escalated over the last week, not only in Gaza but on the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Red Sea as US and British Naval Forces began efforts to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks (resulting in the sinking of three small Houthi naval craft and more than a dozen Houthi rebels killed). With this in mind, we will be watching on Wednesday when Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gives a broadcast address marking the 4th anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

In Asia, we are watching as Taiwan goes into the final two weeks of presidential campaigning. The country goes into an enforced black-out period on Wednesday on all polls in an effort to prevent disinformation campaigns (mostly coming from China).

Turning to the global economic data calendar, it is a particularly quiet week. There are no central bank speeches of note being given and no central bank meetings (although the US Federal Reserve releases FMOC meeting minutes are released on Wednesday).

What markets will be watching all week is the release of PMIs and other important inflation data from virtually every major market. Also, this week, the US employment numbers on Friday will be an important signal as to how fast and well the Federal Reserve has cooled down the markets and might think of beginning the task of lowering interest rates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, December 31, 2023

 Global

  • HAPPY NEW YEAR’S EVE!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

  • Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia will take over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy will take over the chair of the G7, Brazil will take over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

  • Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

  • Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, January 1, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress remains out of session this week and returns the following week (The Senate on January 8 and the House of Representatives on January 9).  They face a packed schedule, mostly focused on funding requests for Ukraine and Israel and how to deal with the US southern border issue Republicans are demanding be dealt with as part of a deal on Ukraine funding.  They are also approaching critical deadlines to get the 2024 appropriations bills finalized.

  • In the US, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) goes into effect today.  The CTA, enforced by FinCEN, is a new set of tax regulations aimed at exposing the Beneficial Ownership of shell companies to battle corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion.

  • Today is Haiti's 220th Independence Day, celebrating the abolition of slavery in the country in 1804.

  • The Disney Company’s copyright of the first Mickey Mouse officially ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)

  • Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Balance of Trade (December)

  • Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Fiscal Balance (November)

  • Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Singapore S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Commodity Prices (December)

  • Singapore GDP (Q4), URA Property Index (Q4)

  • Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Spain observes Reconquest Day, commemorating when the country liberated lands captured by the Moors 9n 1492.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December), Loans to Companies (December), Loans to Households (December), M3 Money Supply (November)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Total Credit (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah will give an address to mark the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (December)

  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December) 

 

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board FOMC Minutes

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Raleigh Chamber Launch 2024, Raleigh, North Carolina.

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December),  JOLTs Job Opening (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 29), API Crude Oil Stock Change (December 29)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)

  • Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Taiwan begins an enforced blackout period on all polling in advance of the January 13 presidential elections.  It is expected that Chinese-backed online disinformation will likely surge during this ten-day period.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Business Confidence (December)

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Price Trade Price Index (January 2)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December), Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December), Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Unemployment (December)

  • Spain New Car Sales (December), Unemployment (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Russia Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

  • Qatar Balance o of Trade (November)

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

  • Oman Total Credit (October)

  • Bahrain Inflation (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), EIA Natural Gas Stock Change (December 28), EIA Cured Oil Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (December 29), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

  • Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Brazil PPI (November), Banking Lending (November)

  • Uruguay Inflation (December)

  • Colombia PPI (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI December)

  • South Korea FX Reserves (December)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (December), Judo Bank Composite PMI (December)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December), Retail Sales (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

  • France Inflation (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (December), Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November), Net Lending to Individuals (November)

  • Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Ireland AIB Services PMI (December), Harmonized Inflation (December)

  • Romania PPI (November)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

  • Slovenia Balance of Trade ((November)

  • Greece Unemployment (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • UAE S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Turkey Auto Sales (December), FX Reserves (December 28)

  • Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

  • Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

  • Uganda Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (December)

  • Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

 

Friday, January 5, 2024

 Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum, Linthicum Heights, Maryland.

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December), ISM Services PMI December), Factory Orders (November), Banker Hughes Rig Count (January 5), Total Vehicle Sales (December)

  • Canada Unemployment (December), Ivey PMI (December)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

  • Colombia Inflation (December), Exports (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), Fiscal Year GDP Growth (2023-2024), FX Reserves (December 29)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (November)

  • Philippines Inflation (December), Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)

  • Taiwan Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Thailand Inflation (December)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

  • Germany Retail Sales (November), HCOB Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)

  • France HCOB Construction PMI (December)

  • Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December)

  • UK Halifax House Price Index (December), New Car Sales (December)

  • Spain Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Poland Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Hungary PPI (November), Unemployment (November), Inflation (December)

  • Switzerland FX Reserves (December)

  • Ukraine FX Reserves (December)

  • Greece Construction Output (Q3)

  • Serbia PPI (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan GDP (Q3)

  • Israel Business Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola GDP (Q3)

  • Uganda Business Confidence (December), Balance of Trade (December)

 

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

  

Sunday, January 7, 2024

 Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • CES 2024 (Consumer Technology Association) begins in Las Vegas.  The world’s largest consumer technology trade show will display what is expected to be cutting-edge AI, virtual reality, and other advanced consumer electronics.  Executives from Nvidia, Samsung, and other global tech firms will be present to brief reporters and consumers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Russian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

December 29 - 31, 2023

Happy New Year!

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

 

Americas

  • “The Real Impact of Maduro’s Guyana Referendum”  Americas Quarterly

    Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro consciously decided to produce a diplomatic crisis to advance his political interests at home, using the Essequibo issue to set the stage ahead of next year’s election. Turnout for the opposition primaries in October was unusually high; organized without state help, they attracted 2.3 million voters. The Maduro government may well have decided to organize a referendum on the Essequibo issue to show that it can mobilize more people.  In any event, the Essequibo issue seems perfectly suited for diverting public attention from an economic crisis. It stirs up nationalist sentiment and a narrative of victimhood due to centuries of perceived injustice. Meanwhile, the massive discoveries of oil in the Essequibo add fuel to the fire.

 

  • “Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Increase Unemployment? Evidence from Early State-Level Expirations” R. Glenn Hubbard/Michael Strain, Economic Inquiry

    During the 2021 pandemic year, the generosity of Unemployment Insurance benefits was expanded (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation [FPUC]), and eligibility for benefits was broadened (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance [PUA]). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021. In June 2021, 18 states exited both FPUC and PUA, and three states exited FPUC (but not PUA). Using Current Population Survey data and a wide range of estimation methods, we find that the flow of unemployed workers into employment increased by around two-thirds following early exit among prime-age workers. We also find evidence of reductions in state-level unemployment rates, increases in employment-populations ratios, and reductions in the share of households that had no difficulty meeting expenses.

 

 

Indo-Pacific

  • “Semiconductors in Key European and Indo-Pacific Economies: Geopolitical Risk in the Supply Chains into 2030 and Beyond”   The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

    What are the core factors that drive semiconductor supply chains amid the current geopolitical climate post-pandemic and into the near future by 2030? Will there be a secure supply, and if so, why or why not? This article analyses the chip supply chain in the context of multiple geopolitical risks, reflecting the industry and government perspectives of countries involved in the supply chain. It looks specifically at the flow of chip supply between the key EU member states and main chip manufacturing economies in East Asia – Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and China – amid the ongoing technological conflict between the U.S. and China. The article looks to the EU Chips Act as the source of demand from the European region, along similar lines of other industrial economies, for ‘self-aggrandizing’ in semiconductor manufacturing capabilities by subsidization. In the short term, it looks to U.S. pressures to impose export controls on production in mainland China as a critical source of supply chain disruption, while the new developments in chip foundry construction are still underway for the next few years. In the mid-to-long term, it points to the potential geopolitical clash on the Taiwan Strait as the main source of uncertainty in the chip supply chain.

 

  • “Timing is Everything: Italy Withdraws from the Belt and Road Initiative” Instituto Affairi Internazioniali

    Italy’s subdued withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative (BR) marked the epilogue of a long, laborious, yet ultimately successful diplomatic process that reflected a reassessment of its bilateral relations with China.  The origins of this reassessment can be traced back to the government led by Mario Draghi between 2021-2022.  The shift reflected the absence of tangible economic benefits from BRI membership for Italy.

 

  • “China’s Export-Reliant Growth Model Threatens Its Trade Relations”   The Diplomat

    China’s latest official figures on the economy confirm two simultaneous truths. First, deflation, lower demand for durable goods, and lower imports persist, even if there has been some consumption rebound. New fiscal stimulus and a strong push for local government bonds to rescue the real estate sector have not impacted new borrowing and investor trust. Moody’s downgrading warning can well justify President Xi Jinping’s reported remark that China’s economic recovery is still “at a critical stage” – and vice versa. Second, there remains policy space to boost the economy. Even officially, China’s currency reserves have risen again, while the true extent of its holdings in foreign-denominated assets is generally underestimated. Official policy has consistently refused monetary expansion on grounds of financial security and because the interest gap with other major currencies has narrowed or disappeared, suggesting there is a risk of hot money outflow. But Xi now talks of an “effective” if stable monetary policy. And exports, after five years of boom, are holding up, even as the Chinese government cites weak international demand as a factor weighing on a sluggish domestic economy.


The Global South & Russia

  • “From Russia with Love: How Moscow Courts the Global South”  European Council on Foreign Relations

    Russia’s war on Ukraine has locked Moscow and the West in a contest for global support. Both would like the rest of the world to side with them against the other.  But they are both likely to ultimately realize that the rest of the world is not swayed by narratives but by pragmatic engagement. This type of transactional relationship comes easier to Moscow than it does to the West, as evidenced by Russia’s past outreach efforts.  Since the beginning of the war, though, Russia has become a one-issue country, with all its foreign relationships now subordinate to the war effort.  Russia’s resources to engage with different regional agendas and partners’ needs have shrunk, and it is compensating by doubling down on propaganda. The war forced Moscow to audit its foreign policy priorities and caused policy changes on several files. The West has an opportunity to profit from Russia’s weakened position in this context. But it needs to learn to adapt its normative positions to a more pragmatic approach that focuses on its partners’ – as well as its own – needs.

 

The Race to Control Critical Minerals 

  • “Lithium, the lightest metal on Earth, carries heavy geopolitical weight”   The Interpreter

    “Control oil, and you control nations,” former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said. Today, it could be argued that to control lithium – white oil as it were – is to control nations. Lithium has become a critical mineral in green technologies, with lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles and store wind and solar energy.  Like oil, lithium is not evenly distributed in the world. Nearly 80 percent of known deposits are in four countries – the South American lithium triangle of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, and Australia. However, holding less than 7 percent of the world’s lithium reserves, China is the world’s largest importer, refiner, and consumer of lithium, buying 70 percent of lithium compounds and supplying 70 percent of lithium production, largely to domestic lithium battery makers, six of which are among the top ten in the world.

  

Global Issues 

 

Chart of the Week

Contrary to Conventional Thinking, US Defense Spending Has been Shrinking

Contrary to what most Americans may think, US defense spending has been in an almost continuous decline since the end of the Cold War.  The return of geopolitical conflict and tensions suggests the US is now at a key inflection point in terms of increased defense spending in the years to come – or not – all in the face of an exploding federal deficit.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Christmas Day: A New Generation, New Traditions

My grandson, Brendan, brought incredible joy and light into our lives this Christmas. Having a grandchild gives me new perspectives, new hopes, new dreams. I hope you had a beautiful Christmas, too. Here is to a great 2024!

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

December 24 - 31, 2023

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Our apologies for getting this note out a bit late - the Christmas rush and family time took precedence. We hope you had a wonderful Christmas Day and are enjoying a quiet week rolling into New Year’s Day. Unfortunately, that will not be happening in Israel or Ukraine as their respective wars continue apace.   Elsewhere in the world this coming week, we will be watching as leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) gather in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss trade and economic integration – all part of efforts by Putin to keep the Russian economy afloat in the face of tightening sanctions.

Also this week, Taiwan’s three presidential candidates will participate in a debate on national television in advance of the elections on January 13.  The latest polls – which are being closely watched by Beijing – show a tightening between Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Lai Ching-te and Nationalist Party (KMT or Kuomintang) Hou Yu-ih.  Lai is leading by less than 4 percent.  The KMT is seen as more accommodating to China.

Finally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will travel later this week to Mexico City for meetings with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in an effort to find a solution to the boom in illegal aliens crossing the US southern border.

Turning to the economic data calendar, it will be a relatively light week.  There is only one major central bank speech  - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazua's speech in Tokyo.  The main economic data releases the markets will watch this week are China's industrial profits and current account figures. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this shortened week:

 

Sunday, December 24, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Libya celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1951 when the country gained independence from France and Britain after the U.N. General Assembly voted for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Tunisia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, December 25, 2023

Global

  • It is Christmas Day.  Merry Christmas!

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Federal Government is closed; banks and stock exchanges closed.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the deadline for Ethiopia to make an interest payment on its $1 billion Eurobond.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November), Redbook (December 22), S&P/Case Shiller Home Price (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Unemployment (November)

  • Singapore CPI (November), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Boxing Day in the UK and in most Commonwealth nations.  Banks and financial markets are closed.

  • Today is Independence Day in Slovenia, celebrating when the country declared its independence in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Spain PPI (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (October)

  • Turkey Business Confidence (December), Capacity Utilization (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December), Richmond Fed Services Index (December), Dallas Fed Services Index (December), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 22), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (December 22)

  • Brazil Bank Lending (November)

  • Argentina Retail Sales (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (November)

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Housing Starts (November), Construction Orders (November)

  • India M3 Money Supply (December 1)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Malaysia PPI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

  • Russia GDP (November), Unemployment (November), Business Confidence (December), Corporate Profits (October), Industrial Production (November), Real Wage Growth (October), Retail Sales (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (October), M1 Money Supply (October & November)

  • Kuwait Private Bank Lending (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation (December) 

 

Thursday, December 28, 2023

Global

  • Today is the 50th anniversary of the publication of the “Gulag Archipelago” by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Goods Trade Balance (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 23), Retail Inventories (November), Wholesale Inventories (November), Pending Home Sales (November)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)

  • Mexico Unemployment (November)

  • Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (December), Net Payrolls (November)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (December), Current Account (Q3)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q3)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • South Korea Business Confidence (December), Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (November)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (November), Current Account (November), Private Consumption (November), Private Investment (November), Retail Sales (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • France Unemployment Benefits Claims (November)

  • Spain Retail Sales (November)

  • Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

  • Montenegro Balance of Trade (November), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • North Macedonia Retail Sales (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate (Q3), Private Bank Lending (November), M3 Money Supply (November)

  • Bahrain Inflation (November)

  • Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (December 22)

  • Jordan Industrial Production (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Friday, December 29, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Chicago PMI (December)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)

  • Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Unemployment (November)

  • Chile Copper Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Colombia Unemployment (November)

  • Paraguay Inflation (December), Current Account (Q2)

  • Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

  • Costa Rica Current Account (Q3)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Independence Day in Mongolia, commemorating the day Mongols officially declared their independence from China in 1911.  Mongolia only remained independent for a few years before Chinese forces took back the country, but in 1921, with the help of Soviet troops, regained its independence and, in 1924, established a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q3)

  • South Korea CPI (December), Inflation (December)

  • India Current Account (Q3), External Debt (Q3), Infrastructure Output (November), Government Budget Value (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 15), Deposit Growth (December 15), FX Reserves (December 22)

  • Philippines PPI (November)

  • Hong Kong M3 Money Supply (November)

  • Singapore Import/Export Prices (November), PPI (November), Bank Lending (November)

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (December), GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Inflation (December), Retail Sales (December), Tourist Arrivals (December)

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

  • Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)

  • Vietnam FDI (December)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (December), Unemployment (Q4)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Spain Inflation (December)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)

  • Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Business Confidence (December), PPI (December)

  • Slovakia Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Slovenia CPI (December), Inflation (December)

  • Hungary Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Current Account (Q3)

  • Serbia Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Greece PPI (November), Retail Sales (October)

  • Ukraine Current Account (November)

  • Russia S&P Global Manufacturing Services & Manufacturing PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • Bahrain GDP (Q3)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa M3 Money Supply (November), Private Sector Credit (November)

  • Uganda Inflation (December)

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (December)

  • Zambia Balance of Trade (November)

  • Kenya GDP (Q3), Inflation (December)

 

 

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, December 31, 2023

Global

HAPPY NEW YEAR!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

  • Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia takes over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy takes over the chair of the G7, Brazil takes over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

  • Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

  • Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

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