The Global Week Ahead

October 29 - November 5, 2023

The escalating situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the attention of the world and financial markets.  But so are the shocking anti-Israel and, clearly, antisemitic protests that have been held around the world in recent days.  Added that are the tense threats to Israel from Turkey, Iran, and other Middle East countries.  The situation is changing by the hour, and we will offer updates as events warrant.   

Meanwhile, there are a number of other significant geopolitical events to watch this week. President Biden will host a Summit of Latin American leaders on Friday to discuss economic growth and try to find ways to work together better to address migration issues.  Also this week, the UK will host the first AI Safety Summit seeking to better understand the threats AI poses and develop a global framework to mitigate those risks.  We expect the White House to issue an Executive Order on AI in conjunction to the Summit.

Also this week, China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November. This comes as Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who met with President Biden last week, travels to China for a four-day official visit.  It signifies a significant de-escalation of tensions between the two countries following a number of years of retaliatory tariffs and sanctions China placed on Australia.  This is the first time an Australian Prime Minister has visited China since 2016.

Finally, this is the first work week for the newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA).  It will be a tough one as the House begins racing to both figure out how to pass another continuing resolution by November 17 or risk a government shutdown as well as begin moving appropriations bills that must be done by December 31.  If Congress fails to pass all 12 appropriations bills, then a 1 percent across the board cut to federal spending will go into effect in January 2024.

On the global economic front, markets are watching closely as the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to consider interest rates.  While markets do not expect another rate increase, they will be listening carefully to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s post-meeting press conference to get a sense of where the Fed is going next on rates.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also meet this week to consider interest rates.  On top of this, it is a heavy week of economic data reports.  The US reports important job numbers this week while China PMIs and a variety of important data reports from Japan are released.  In the EU, we will be watching GDP numbers from Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

• G7 Trade Ministers are meeting in Osaka, Japan.

• As part of his first trip in preparation for COP28, to be held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, UN Secretary-General António Guterres arrives in Nepal at the invitation of the Government.   This will be a visit of solidarity with Nepal, which is the current Chair of the Global Coordination Bureau of the Least Developed Countries.  While in Nepal, the Secretary-General will meet with impacted communities. He is scheduled to have bilateral meetings with President Ramchandra Paudel, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ as well as other senior officials. He will also address a Joint Session of the Parliament.   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Nigeria and Ghana from through Tuesday.  The goal of his visits is to discuss “regional security, economic development, and cooperation on economic and global issues.”

• UK Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Oman holds elections for their parliament.

• Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Monday, October 30, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• A high-level delegation of members of the European Parliament travels to Silicon Valley to discuss with tech industry executives a host of policy issues ranging from AI to cybersecurity and privacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)

• Bank of Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Parliament’s Standing House Committee on Finance.

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October), Gross Debt to GDP (September), Nominal Budget Balance (September), Net Payrolls (September), BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Singapore to meet newly elected President Tharman Shanmugaratnam.  They will also participate in a signing ceremony of a new agreement on investment cooperation. The two nations trade more than $84 billion annually.

• Hong Kong hosts FinTech Week through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Today is the October Bank Holiday in the UK.  It is a public holiday.

• Australia Retail Sales (September)

• Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmanin and Prime Minister Albin Kurti in Pristina, Kosovo.  Later, she meets with North Macedonia’s President Dimitar Kovačevsk in Skopje, North Macedonia.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through October 31 in Palma, Spain.

• Prominent jailed Russian opposition figures – including Alexei Navalny – are expected to begin a one-day hunger strike to protest Russian government repression.

• The Nordic Council meets through November 2 to discuss improving security ties among Nordic nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at the Leadership Forum organized by Instituto de Empresa in Madrid, Spain.

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the London School of Economics' Financial Markets Group event "Five years of European Banking Supervision and Beyond" in London, United Kingdom.

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sentiment (October), Selling Price Sentiment (October)

• Germany GDP ()Q3), Inflation (October),

• UK BoE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Data (September), Net Lending to Individuals (September)

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

• Spain Inflation (October), Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

• Bulgaria PPI (September), Business Confidence (October)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (October)

• Slovenia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

• Hungary Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Greece PPI (September)

• Montenegro Balance of Trade (September)

• Bosnia & Herzegovina Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (September, Private Sector Credit (September)

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Employment Cost – Benefits & Wages (Q3), Redbook (October 28), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prides (August), House Price Index (August), Chicago PMI (October), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Dallas Fed Services Index (October),

• Canada GDP (August & September)

• Brazil Unemployment (September)

• Mexico GDP (Q3)

• Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

• Uruguay Unemployment (September), Balance of Trade (September)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October)

• India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (September)

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report, Japan Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September),

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

• Singapore Bank Lending (September), Business Confidence (Q3)

• Australia Housing Credit (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• Philippines PPI (September)

• Thailand Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Private Consumption (September), Private Investment (September), Retail Sales (September)

• New Zealand Building Permits (September)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić; and meets with Prime Minister Ana Brnabić in Belgrade.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with Montenegrin President resident Jakov Milatović; and caretaker Prime Minister Dritan Abazović.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and a colloquium with students organized by ICADE University in Spain.

• Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)

• France GDP (Q3), Household Consumption (September), Inflation (October), PPI (September)

• Bank of England Executive Director for Banking, Payments, and Innovation Victoria Cleland gives the keynote speech at the Digital Innovation Summit 2023 in London.

• Italy GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), PPI (October)

• Poland Inflation (October)

• Greece Retail Sales (August)

• Spain Current Account (August)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

• Hungary Inflation (October)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Ukraine Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3)

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The OECD’s 22nd International Economic Forum on Africa begins in Paris, France. The theme of this year’s conference is “Investing in Africa for Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development.”

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

• South Africa Balance of Trade (September) 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 

Global

• China assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council.  In the afternoon, there will be a press briefing by the Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations and the President of the Security Council for the month of November, Ambassador Zhang Jun. 

• The World Trade Organization holds a General Council meeting in Geneva through November 2.

• The UK hosts the AI Safety Summit through November 2 in London.  Leaders from around the world will travel to London to discuss the risks of AI and how they can be mitigated.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Antigua Independence Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1981.

Economic Reports/Events –

• U.S. Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference,  U.S. Treasury Refunding Announcement, US ADP Employment Change (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October 27) ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTs Job Openings (September), Construction Spending (September)

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Senate’s Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

• Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision, Brazil Industrial Production (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Peru Inflation (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India puts into effect its new “import management system” to monitor shipments of laptops, tablets, and other similar devices. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

• India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M3 Money Supply (October 20)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

• Australia Ai Group Industry Index (October), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (October), Ai Group Construction and Manufacturing Indexes (October), Building Permits (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October), Commodity Prices (October)

• New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Unemployment (Q3), Labor Costs (Q3)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation (October), Tourist Arrivals (September)

• Malaysia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Taiwan S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Vietnam S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Thailand S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron will begin visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  Macron hopes to deepen trade ties with the two countries.  Additionally, Macron wants to solidify trade in uranium from the two countries as France generates more than 60 percent of its electricity from 56 nuclear power plants.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Bosnia and Herzegovina Chairwomen of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Greece S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Russia GDP (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (September), Business Confidence (October), Retail Wage Growth (August), Retail Sales (September), Corporate Profits (August), M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

• Saudi Arabia Me Money Supply (September), Private Bank Lending (September)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kenya Inflation (October)

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

• South Africa Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October) 

Thursday, November 2, 2023

Global

• The International Vienna Energy and Climate Forum will take place on 2 and 3 November at the Hofburg International Centre in Vienna.

• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the AI Safety Summit 2023 at Bletchley Park, UK.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Mexico celebrates the annual Day of the Dead parade in Mexico City.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Challenger Job Cuts (October), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Factory Orders (September)

• Mexico FX Reserves (September)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The 3rd round of Fukushima Daiichi treated water will be released.  The release of the damaged nuclear power plant water has become a major diplomatic irritant between Japan and China, which has condemned Japan’s release of the water and restricted the sale of Japanese fish products to China.

• IMF officials travel to Pakistan to hold talks on potential financial relief via the release of a $710 million second tranche of a pre-approved $3 billion loan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Australia Balance of Trade (September), Home Loans (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Pakistan Inflation (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

• Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with UN Secretary General António Guterres in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture on "Monetary Policy Tightening in the Euro Area"  at the University of Limerick in Limerick, Ireland.

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a fireside chat with Gillian Tett, Financial Times, at the 30th CIBP Congress "Cooperative Banks, Actors of Transitions" in Paris, France.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in St. Louis, Missouri.

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (October)

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• France Budget Balance (September), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Poland S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Ireland Unemployment (October)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Switzerland Inflation (October), CPI (October)

• Romania PPI (September)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bahrain Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

• Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Qatar Deposit Interest Rate (November),

• Royal Reserve Bank of Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Britain's King Charles III makes a state visit to Kenya.

• The 10th Africa Fintech Summit begins in Lusaka, Zambia. 

• The 20th African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Summit Forum begins in Johannesburg. Key delegations from all member countries, regional economic entities, and representatives from the private and public sectors will meet to strengthen trade and economic ties between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Total New Vehicles Sales (October)

Friday, November 3, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joe Biden will host an Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit, which will include leaders from South American nations.  Among the issues they will discuss are greater trade opportunities, tackling migration issues, and climate change.   

• The US Financial Stability Oversight Board, chaired by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, will convene to discuss commercial real estate market developments; get an update on the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance; approve the Council’s 2023 annual report; and review the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company determinations. 

• Today is Dominican Independence Day, commemorating when it gained independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Housing Conference - Breakfast with Barr: A Conversation About CRA in the 21st Century, Washington, D.C.  Later that day, Barr again speaks – this time virtually –  on the Community Reinvestment Act at the New Community Reinvestment Act Rule: What It Means For Communities Around the Country.

• US Total Vehicles Sales (October), Non-Farm Payrolls (October), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October), ISM Services PMIs (October)

• Canada Unemployment (October)

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

• Uruguay Inflation (October)

• Croatia Unemployment (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will begin visits to the Philippines and Malaysia.  The aim of the visit is to discuss increased security with Japan.  Both countries are recipients of Japan’s Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework.

• Today is Culture Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (October)

• India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October), Bank Loan Growth (October 20)

• South Korea FX Reserves (October)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

• Singapore Retail Sales (September)

• Taiwan FX Reserves (October)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the Regulators 2023 (FINSIA) Conference in Sydney, Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Retail Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Unemployment (September)

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

• France Industrial Production (October), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

• Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Jonathan Haskel participates as a panelist discussing “Labour Market Dynamics” at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Italy Unemployment (September)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

• Greece Unemployment (September)

• Romania Unemployment (September)

• Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Experts/Balances of Trade (October), Inflation (October), PPI (October), Auto Sales (October)

• Bahrain M2 Money Supply (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (October)

• Egypt FX Reserves (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

• Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (October)

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese begins a four-day visit to China.  This is considered a highly significant visit as China-Australia soured considerably in recent years, resulting in China imposing severe duties on Australian barley, coal, and other commodities.  Albanese is the first Australian Prime Minister to visit China since 2016. While in China, Albanese will visit the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, which is one of China’s foremost business events with more than 150 countries sending businesses.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia celebrates the Day of Unity, commemorating an uprising in Moscow against Polish forces in 1612. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

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Recommended Weekend Reads

October 27 - 29, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Middle East

• “The Israel and Gaza War: Economic Repercussions”    Brookings Institution

  Brookings’ scholars provide a brief discussion of the possible economic repercussions, bearing in mind the extreme uncertainty characterizing the situation. The repercussions of the crisis are dependent on the extent and duration of the fighting, associated geopolitical tensions, and the possible occurrence of terrorist attacks. While the overall reaction of financial markets has been relatively muted so far, the risks of an intensification and broadening of the conflict are material, and their potential fallout could be severe, especially for countries in the region.

• “Will Lebanon Be Safe or Sorry?”   Carnegie Middle East Center

  Many Lebanese are playing a morbid game these days—assessing the probability that their country will be destroyed if Hezbollah enters the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. On several occasions, the Israelis have warned that in any future war with Hezbollah, they would send Lebanon “back to the stone age.”  The assumption is that once Israel begins a ground invasion of Gaza, the prospect of a Lebanon conflict will greatly increase. 

• “Egypt in the Cauldron of Gaza”   Foreign Affairs

  As Israel readies for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, much attention has shifted to how Egypt will respond in the coming days and weeks. The Egyptian government, after all, has been party to the 16-year-long Israeli blockade of Gaza, enforcing tight controls on what comes in and out of the enclave through the border crossing at Rafah. The Egyptian people, however, see their own circumstances very differently: like the people of Gaza, they are trapped by corruption and neglect in an apparently endless spiral of poverty and subjugation, as bread, freedom, and justice seem increasingly out of reach. That kind of despair breeds only bitterness and anger. The Sisi government may be able to deflect and contain protests against its own policies, but only at the cost of more repression, since local echoes of Palestinian discontent and frustration are not hard to discern in the demonstrations of solidarity that have spread across the country.

• “Al-Monitor/Premise Poll: 82% of Americans wary of US Intervention in Israel-Hamas War” Al Monitor

  As the Israel-Hamas war rages on and threatens to spill into a wider regional conflict, Americans are either unsure of or reject a US military intervention in the region, according to a new Al-Monitor/Premise poll.

Americas 

• “Paper Tiger or Pacing Threat? China’s Security and Defense Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  China has long couched its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean in primarily economic terms. However, China is becoming increasingly strident in its efforts to bolster defense and security initiatives in the Western Hemisphere. Chinese defense and security engagements manifest along a spectrum, including dual-use civilian and military infrastructure projects, public safety assistance, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, arms sales, and joint military-to-military exchanges and trainings. An expanded military and security presence in the hemisphere poses significant concerns for the United States in the event of a potential conflict or crisis, imperils regional stability by empowering criminal regimes in the hemisphere, and risks eroding democratic norms within regional militaries and police forces.  

• “’Compensate the Losers?’ Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the U.S.”  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.

China 

• “2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”    U.S. Department of Defense

  The U.S. Department of Defense recently released its annual report on "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China." The congressionally mandated report serves as an authoritative assessment on military and security developments involving the PRC.   The report finds that in 2022, the PRC increasingly turned to the PLA as an instrument of statecraft. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, while accelerating its development of capabilities, including its nuclear, space, and cyberspace capabilities; deepening military ties with Russia; and strengthening its ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. At the same time, the PRC largely denied, cancelled, and ignored recurring bilateral defense engagements, as well as DoD requests for military-to-military communication at multiple levels.

Book Recommendation

Germany 1923 by Volker Ullrich

(Liveright Publishing, 432 pages, 2023)

1923 was, for Germany, the year of polycrisis that would shape the next two decades and beyond for Europe and the world.  Adolf Hitler attempted his Beer Hall Putsch in Munich.  The German government failed to make reparation payments to France, which resulted in Paris sending in troops to occupy the Ruhr region – the economic backbone of an otherwise broke and crumpled German economy. 

It turned inflation in Germany into hyperinflation.  It also was a bitter and humiliating event for the German people, who were still stunned at the loss of the War and the heavy financial punishments placed upon them. 

That, in turn, ignited a series of political crises in Germany, threatening the disintegration of the nation.  And that brought the next horrific evolution of events: The empowerment Hitler and his followers as increasingly desperate Germans looked for a powerful leader to ascend who could restore Germany and their lives.

2024 did see a resolution to the reparation issue and the pulling out of French troops from the Ruhr.  But the damage had been done.   The long fuse leading to Hitler’s rise to complete power a decade hence was lit.

Ullrich’s book is a healthy and timely reminder of how fragile democracy is, requiring constant, careful tending and protection.  What happened in 1923 Germany led to the German people losing faith in their government and the democratic institutions on which it was based – thus opening the door to Hitler’s rise a short ten years later. 

The same can be said about national and global economies and just how dangerous inflation can become – and how badly it can get out of control due to political tensions.  All of which remain salient lessons today. 

Germany 1923 is a fascinating and fact-rich read.  We highly recommend it.

“The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C.”

apropos - A Ness & Associates Podcast co-hosted by the CFA Society of New York

October 23, 2023

I was delighted to be a guest on this outstanding podcast last week. So much going on in the world. Here is the show description (below) - I hope you find it useful! It is available on both Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

In this engaging episode of Apropos, presented by Ness & Associates and CFA Society New York, esteemed guest Mr. Frank Kelly delves into a compelling discussion on "The Latest in Geopolitics and the Chaos in D.C." and their consequential impacts on global financial markets.

The spotlight was on the pressing geopolitical issues affecting the world, with a particular focus on the ongoing War in Israel. Unprecedented in its nature, this conflict echoes the unsettling trends witnessed in various global hotspots, notably drawing parallels to the intensity of the Ukraine-Russia War, the most significant military confrontation in Europe since World War II.

Unfolding amidst these international tensions is the notable absence of progress in the House of Representatives, with the lack of a House Speaker amplifying the political gridlock in the most influential democracy in the world. As of the recording date on October 16, 2023, the inability to drive legislative actions speaks volumes about the current challenges faced by our nation.

As we approach the close of 2023 and look ahead to the upcoming election year in 2024, the front-running candidates reflect the deepening polarization within the political landscape, capturing the essence of the present societal turmoil characterized by a profound sense of disorientation and a dire need for decisive leadership.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 23 - 27, 2023

It is going to be a busy week for U.S. financial services regulators.  The Federal Reserve Board meets twice this week to consider two rulemakings: one to consider changes to the Community Reinvestment Act and the second to consider changes to the debt interchange fee.  The biggest news to emerge from the Federal Reserve (and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) came late last week when they announced they are extending the comment period on the large bank capital proposal to January 2024.  The proposal has run into a growing storm of opposition from banks and several Fed Governors in an unusual twist.

Also, this week, several Congressional hearings in the House and Senate will focus on terrorism financing and how to better choke off funding to Hamas and other terror organizations.

These hearings occur as U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism Finance and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson travels to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Doha, Qatar, for meetings to further cut off financial assistance to Hamas.  While in Saudi Arabia, Nelson will co-chair a meeting of the Executive Committee of the Terrorist Financing Targeting Center (TFTC), a multilateral body created to strengthen cooperation among seven countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and the United States - to disrupt terrorist financing networks.

We are also looking to a Wednesday morning event hosted by Capitol Account  (which we think is hands-down the best publication covering financial services policy) and the Bank Policy Institute discussing the “Basel endgame” and the growing battle over capital requirements.  Speakers include Acting Speaker of the House and House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry (which we are sure will mean we will hear as much about the state of chaos in the House of Representatives as capital requirement policy debates) and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher Partner (and former Labor Secretary) Eugene Scalia.  This should be an exciting event.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• October 24, 10:00 a.m. – the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets holds a hearing entitled, "Examining the SEC's Agenda: Unintended Consequences for U.S. Capital Markets and Investors."

• October 24, 10:00 a.m.– the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy holds a hearing entitled, "The Tangled Web of Global Governance: How the Biden Administration is Ceding Authority Over American Financial Regulation"

• October 24, 10:00 a.m. – the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance holds a hearing entitled, "The Factors Influencing the High Cost of Insurance for Consumers."

• October 25, 8:30 a.m. – Capitol Account  (which we think is the best publication out there covering financial services policy) and the Bank Policy Institute hold an event on the regulator’s Basel endgame proposal. Speakers include Acting Speaker of the House and House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher Partner Eugene Scalia.

• October 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Modernizing Financial Services Through Innovation and Competition."

• October 25, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "How America and Its Allies Can Stop Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran from Evading Sanctions and Financing Terror."

• October 26, 9:30 a.m. – The House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing entitled “Moving the Money: Understanding the Iranian Regime’s Access to Money Around the World and How They Use it to Support Terrorism.”

U.S. Senate

• October 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Judiciary Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Examining Competition and Consumer Rights in Housing Markets."

• October 26, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on “Combating the Networks of Illicit Finance and Terrorism.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 23, 9:30 a.m. – The Federal Reserve will meet to hold a vote on changes to Community Reinvestment Act regulations.

• October 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Reserve will hold a press conference on Proposed revisions to the Board's debit interchange fee cap.

• October 25, 4:35 p.m. – Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell gives Introductory Remarks at the 2023 Moynihan Lecture in Social Science and Public Policy, Washington, D.C.

• October 26, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gives introductory remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference in Washington, D.C.

• October 27, 9:00 a.m. – Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives introductory remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

• October 23 – 26:  U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism Finance and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Doha, Qatar, for meetings seeking to further cut off financial assistance to Hamas.  While in n Saudi Arabia, Under Secretary Nelson will co-chair a meeting of the Executive Committee of the Terrorist Financing Targeting Center (TFTC), a multilateral body created to strengthen cooperation among seven countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and the United States - to disrupt terrorist financing networks.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 25: SEC Chair Gary Gensler and SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewel will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum in Washington, D.C.

• October 26, 9:15 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness.  The topic of the event is Climate Disclosure Developments: The SEC, California, and EU Extraterritoriality."

• October 26, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 23, 6:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will join Kevin Werbach, Chairperson and Professor of Legal Studies & Business Ethics at Wharton Business School, for a discussion on regulating digital assets and decentralized finance celebrating the 100-year anniversary of the Academy of Legal Studies in Business.

• October 24, 9:45 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a government panel, "AI Opportunities and Implications for Economic Institutions," at the AWS Gov2Gov Summit on Responsible AI Innovation for the Public Sector being held at the Planet Word Museum in Washington, D.C.

• October 25, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) event, Analyzing the Role of Blockchain Technology in Strengthening Democratic Institutions in Washington, D.C.

• October 26, 9:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. (Madrid, Spain) – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in the Financial Stability Engagement Group discussion at the IOSCO board meeting in Madrid, Spain.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 24, 3:00 p.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors holds a meeting to vote on Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) changes.  They will also vote on an interagency policy statement on Principles for Climate-Related Financial Risk Management for Large Financial Institutions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• October 23, 2:30 p.m. PT – OCC Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will participate in a discussion on banking, cryptocurrency, and financial inclusion with Tracy Alloway, host of the Odd Lots podcast, at Money 20/20 in Las Vegas.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• No events are scheduled for next week.

National Credit Union Administration

• No events are scheduled for next week.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 24, 1:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will give opening remarks at the American Veterinary Medical Association Virtual Veterinary Business and Economic Forum.

Farm Credit Administration

• No events are scheduled for next week.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 25, 9:00 – 10:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold a discussion on “What works and what doesn't in the EU bank resolution framework” in Washington, D.C.  EU Single Resolution Board Chair Dominique Laboureix will speak.

• October 25, 1:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Institute hosts Federal Housing Finance Authority Director Sandra Thompson.  She will speak on the status and future of the housing finance system.

Trade Associations

• October 25: the Securities Enforcement Forum is held in Washington, D.C.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler and SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewel will speak.

• October 26, 9:15 a.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness holds a discussion on "Climate Disclosure Developments: The SEC, California, and EU Extraterritoriality."   SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak.

• October 26, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Lending and Credit Risk in the Digital Age: Navigating Policy Challenges."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

October 22 - 29, 2023

 The situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the focus of markets as Israel is expected to launch land forces into Gaza soon to eliminate the Hamas threat.  The race to find and free the 200-plus hostages has intensified, but with little luck.  As all this occurs, Iran and their proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen continue ramp up attacks on Israel, all as the US moves more naval forces into the region.

Elsewhere around the world this coming week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits Washington to meet with President Biden to discuss the AUKUS security agreement (Australia/UK/US) and advancing trade ties between the two nations.  As this happens,  California Governor Gavin Newsom travels to China to discuss bilateral California-China trade ties.  The trip is a gamble for Newsom, who has little foreign policy experience and is putting himself in the middle of still-tense US-China relations. 

Back in Washington, House Republicans return to work today to figure out who they can agree on to be the next Speaker of the House.  There are now nine announced candidates for the role, suggesting the situation is far from settled and will likely paralyze the House for some time.

On the global economic radar screen, the week's big event will occur in Athens, Greece, where the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to consider another interest rate increase.  Canada's Reserve Bank also meets this week to consider interest rates.

In the US, we will be watching for new GDP numbers and personal income and spending data (both of which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a key data point). 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 22, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina held general elections for the President, Senate, and Chamber of Deputies. There were five candidates running in the first round with the frontrunner being Javier Milei, a libertarian congressman from the Liberty Advance coalition.  However, in a surprise,the Peronist Party coalition far-exceeded expectations to lead the election and force a run-off election between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and Milei.  Massa won 36.6 percent of the vote to Milei’s 30 percent.  

• California Governor Gavin Newsom travels to China to hold talks with Chinese officials on trade, tourism, and establishing new cultural exchanges.  Newsom will visit Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.

• Venezuela’s opposition held primary elections and as of now, the vote count is unfinished.  However, former lawmaker Maria Corina Machado is expected to be declared the victor.  Last week, the Biden Administration announced they had brokered a deal with the Venezuelan regime to remove some sanctions on oil exports in return for free elections.  However, since then, the Maduro Regime has let it be known they will not allow such elections and, to further complicate the matter, are likely to move up the elections so the opposition cannot run a campaign.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Japan, voters in Nagasaki and Tokushima-Kochi held votes for lower and upper house candidates.  The outcome of the elections are expected to influence if and when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds snap elections and in both elections, his Liberal Democratic Party lost.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the „Deutschlandtag“ of the Junge Union Deutschlands, Brunswick, Germany.

• Switzerland held elections for the Council of States and National Council.  Voters voted for conservative candidates, largely out of concerns over rising immigration.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 23, 2023

Global

• The World Trade Organization’s Minsters meeting is held in Geneva.  They will meet to discuss the agenda for the 2024 WTO Conference.

• In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), followed by consultations in the afternoon. also in the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo(UNMIK).

• The UN’s 35th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol takes place in Nairobi, Kenya from 23-27 October.  The parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer will meet to discuss issues on ongoing ozone layer monitoring and protection, as well as emerging issues such as geoengineering, very short-lived substances, and increasing levels of emissions that are not ozone depleting but potent greenhouse gases among others. Crucially, parties will also start discussions on the replenishment of the Multilateral Fund for the next triennium 2024-2026. A symposium on cold chain and a workshop on energy efficiency will also take place on 21 and 22 October.

• The UN-sponsored Latin America and Caribbean Climate Week takes place in Panama City from 23 to 27 October. Like the other Regional Climate Weeks, the event provides a platform for policymakers, practitioners, businesses and civil society to discuss climate solutions, barriers to overcome and opportunities realized in different regions ahead of COP28. Hosted by the Government of Panama, other global partners include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US House Republican Caucus will meet to consider who should be the next Speaker of the House.  There are now nine (9) announced candidates for the post, the largest number to date.  They include Republican Representatives Jack Bergman (MI) Byron Donalds (FL) Tom Emmer (MN) Kevin Hern (OK) Mike Johnson (LA) Dan Meuser (PA) Gary Palmer (AL) Austin Scott (GA) Pete Sessions (TX).  Whomever is chosen will be voted on by the full House on Tuesday.

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with President Joe Biden in Washington.  They are expected to discuss the AUKUS security program, climate change, and access to critical minerals.

• Brent Neiman, U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Finance will speak at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies on current global financial issues in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

• Mexico Economic Activity (August)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will give a major policy speech before an extraordinary session of the Japanese Diet (parliament).  It is expected he will outline a significant economic stimulus plan which will include tax cuts.

• Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan set to face indictment in leaked documents case.

• Vietnam’s National Assembly opens its fall session with nine major pieces of legislation before them, including highly-controversial bills dealing with land, housing, and property firms.

• China's major e-commerce platforms begin the Singles Day shopping festival, which spans about three weeks through Nov. 11. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore CPI (September), Inflation (September)

• Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg to discuss the situation in Ukraine, and tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as the situation in Israel and Gaza. It is expected they will also discuss EU ministers to hold final discussions in Luxembourg on a security mission to the Gulf of Guinea, potentially resulting in the deployment of police and soldiers to Ghana, Togo, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire.

• The 20th meeting of the EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council takes place in Luxembourg.  It is also expected they will discuss the state of play and next steps of the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity) and cooperation. They will also discuss regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries  Council meets Luxembourg through October 24.  The will discuss the market situation in light of the Ukraine War.  The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture will address the Council.  They will go on to discuss the Waste Framework Directive and fishing opportunities in 2024 in the Baltic Sea.

• There will be an informal meeting of the EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 24 in León, Spain. 

• Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will visit Japan and hold meetings with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida through October 26.  It is expected they will discuss mutual defense and security issues and the prospects for increased trade ties.

• Hungarian Prime Minister Vicktor Orbán will give a major speech on Republic Day, the anniversary of the country’s failed 1956 uprising against Soviet rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

• Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Lebanon Inflation (September)

• Qatar GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s former minister of petroleum, Diezani Alison-Madueke, will challenge the seizure of assets by the country’s anti-graft body in court. The agency said it recovered assets worth $153 million from Madueke.

• Nigeria’s Supreme Court will hear an opposition challenge to the disputed February presidential election won by Bola Tinubu. A tribunal last month rejected challenges by Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who polled second and third respectively.

• The Climate Chance Summit Africa 2023 will bring together 600 African actors from the broader climate change community at the Institut Français in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The House of Representatives is expected to vote on a new Speaker of the House (although there will be a successful outcome).

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Redbook (October 21), S&P PMIs (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October), Richmond Fed Services Index (October)

• Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

• Mexico Mid-Month Inflation Rate (October)

• Chile PPI (September)

• Argentina Economic Activity (August)

• Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Jibun PMIs (October)

• South Korea PPI (September)

• Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Reserve Bank of Australia Director Michele Bullock gives her first speech as Governor in Sydney at the Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference.

• Indonesia FDI (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and prepare for the European Council meeting on October 26 and 27.

• More than 450 Cambridge University staff will go on strike over pay.

• The first Euro-Namibia Business Forum to take place in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), HCOB PMIs (October)

• UK Unemployment (August), S&P Global/CIPS PMIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q2), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

• France HCOB PMIs (October)

• Hungary Gross Wage (August)

• Poland Unemployment (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt Current Account (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Zambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

 Global

• The European Union will host the Global Gateway meetings, which are comprised of approximately 20 countries seeking to boost global infrastructure development.  The Gateway program began in 2021 with the aim of focusing on emerging countries and encouraging private-public partnerships.  More than half of the funding (approximately $320 million) is being spent in Africa, with the rest distributed in Asia and Latin America.  Global Gateway is seen as the EU’s (small) effort to counter China’s Belt & Road Initiative. EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give the opening remarks

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and Peace and Security.

• The UN hosts a hybrid briefing by Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on “the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967.”  This will be followed by another briefing by the Independent International Commission on Inquiry “on the Occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee will meet to consider the nomination of Jack Lew to be the new US Ambassador to Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives Introductory Remarks at the 2023 Moynihan Lecture in Social Science and Public Policy, Washington, D.C.

• US MBA Mortgage Index (October 20), New Homes Sales (September), Building Permits (September)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report

• Argentina Retail Sales (August)

• Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong Chef Executive John Lee will give a major policy address to unveil his plan to address the faltering property market, business confidence, and geopolitical tensions.  Last year, Lee a top-talent visa scheme to plug a brain drain sparked by a national security crackdown and harsh pandemic restrictions. This time around, economists are hoping property cooling measures will be scrapped to slow falling home prices, while political observers are expecting a lighter emphasis on national security.

• Shanghai Cooperation Organization heads of government meeting to take place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.  China’s Premier Li Quang is scheduled to attend and then make an official visit to the Kyrgyzstan Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

• Australia Inflation (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), CPI (September)

• Philippines Budget Balance (September)

• Malaysia Coincident Index (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels.  The Forum brings together EU leaders and social partners where they will discuss “How to make Europe the place to be for industrial investments creating growth and quality jobs?”   The participating social groups include BusinessEurope, The European Trade Union Confederation, Eurocadres, SGI Europe, and SMEunited.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visits Sweden, where he will give a speech on the new security and strategy reality.  He will also meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the Minister of Defense Pål Jonson, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström, along with the Speaker of the Swedish Parliament, Andreas Norlén.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Russian religious leaders, including Patriarch Kirill.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner hosted by the
  Bank of Greece in Athens, Greece.  This comes the evening before the ECB meets to decide on a likely rate increase.

• Eurozone Loans to Companies & Households (September0, M3 Money Supply (September)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

• France Unemployment (September)

• Greece Total Credit (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Spain PPI (September)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (September), PPI (September)

• Bosnia and Herzegovina Inflation (September), PPI (September), Industrial Production (September)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

• Kuwait Private Bank Lending (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Air Force Forum, hosted by the Senegalese Air Force, begins in Dakar, Senegal, and runs through October 26.

• The African Development Bank will host a Symposium focused on data innovation and associated technologies.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (October)

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

• US Durable Goods Orders (September), GDP (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October 2), Retail Sales Inventories (September), Retail Consumer Spending (Q3), Pending Home Sales (September), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (October 2), Kansas Fed Manufacturing/Composite Indexes (October)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Manufacturing Sales (September), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

• Mexico Unemployment (September)

• Brazil Current Account (September), Foreign Direct Investment (August), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October), PPI (September)

• Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s largest motor show, the Tokyo Motor Show, begins and will have a record 475 enterprises present. But for the first time, it will include a large number of tech start-ups involved in the technology of autos.

• Thailand’s first auto show dedicated to electric vehicles – the Bangkok EV Expo 2023 – begins in Bangkok.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Business Confidence (October), GDP (Q3)

•  Australia Export Prices/Import Prices (Q3)

• Singapore Industrial Production (September)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Malaysia PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Council meets in Brussels through October 27.  The EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027, the state of the EU economy, and the migration crisis.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to visit Belarus to attend a Eurasian security conference. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Jon Cunliffe gives a speech at The Economics of Payments XII Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.  

• UK Car Production (September), CBI Distributive Trades (October)

• Spain Unemployment (Q3)

• Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (October 20)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (September)

• Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, October 27, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting, International Court of Justice (ICJ) briefing.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives introductory remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

• US PCE Price Index (September), Personal Income (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October), Consumer Expectations (October), Michigan Current Conditions (October), Michigan Inflation Expectations (October), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 27)

• Canada Wholesale Sales (September), Budget Balance (August)

• Brazil Ban Lending (September)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Tokyo CPI (October)

• India FX Reserves (October 20)

• Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October), PPI (Q3)

• Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment (Q3), Import/Export Prices (September), PPI (September)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Euro Summit is held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Hungary Unemployment (September)

• Spain GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (September)

• Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals (September)

• Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

• Ireland Inflation (October), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Sales (August)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bahrain Inflation (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report 

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Global

• The G7 Trade Ministers meet in Osaka-Sakai, Japan through October 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Nigeria and Ghana from through Tuesday.  The goal of his visits is to discuss “regional security, economic development, and cooperation on economic and global issues.”

• UK Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Oman holds elections for their parliament.

• Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 20 - 22, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Latin America 

• “The Only Threat of Violence in Venezuela’s Opposition Primaries Comes from the Regime”   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Biden Administration has brokered a deal with the Venezuelan regime easing sanctions on oil production in return for allowing free elections.  But the risk of this deal falling apart is high. On August 18, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro appeared on television to denounce the October 22 primaries planned by Venezuela’s opposition parties, which are uniting behind a single candidate ahead of the country’s 2024 presidential elections. Through “lies, hate, and violence,” Maduro claimed the opposition would use the primaries to “sow fascism” in Venezuela (author’s translation). The accusations, parroted by other high-ranking regime authorities, represent a disturbing narrative in the midst of an already fraught electoral season, which has seen attacks and intimidation against political candidates and the arbitrary disqualification of leading figures, most notably opposition frontrunner María Corina Machado. The Maduro regime’s narrative of violence portends a possible intervention in the opposition’s independently organized primary process on public security grounds.

• “A (Relatively) Bullish Case for Latin America”    Americas Quarterly

  Far from global crises but near vital markets, the region has what the world needs right now. The bottom line is basically this: The external context for Latin America/Caribbean (LAC) right now is so favorable on a variety of fronts that it is overcoming other headwinds. If the policy mix was better, the region might be growing by 4% or 5% a year. But 2% or perhaps a little better still feels like progress. That growth, plus the investments being made, might be enough to create a little more well-being among the region’s citizens—which could, in turn, help the politics get better. 

The United States

• “America’s Strategic Posture: the Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States”

  On October 12, the Strategic Posture Commission released its long-awaited report on U.S. nuclear policy and strategic stability. The 12-member Commission was hand-picked by Congress in 2022 to conduct a threat assessment, consider alterations to U.S. force posture, and provide recommendations. In contrast to the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, the Congressionally-mandated Strategic Posture Commission report is a full-throated embrace of a U.S. nuclear build-up. It includes recommendations for the United States to prepare to increase its number of deployed warheads, as well as increase its production of bombers, air-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missile submarines, non-strategic nuclear forces, and warhead production capacity. It also calls for the United States to deploy multiple warheads on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and consider adding road-mobile ICBMs to its arsenal. The only thing that appears to have prevented the Commission from recommending an immediate increase in the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile is that the weapons production complex currently does not have the capacity to do so.

Africa 

• “How a Fertilizer Shortage Is Spreading Desperate Hunger”  The New York Times

  The war in Ukraine reduced the region’s grain exports and sent the price of staples like wheat soaring from Egypt to Indonesia. The world’s food supply is also menaced by the ravages of climate change — heat waves, drought, floods. Now, scarce and expensive fertilizer  - much of normally imported from Ukraine – is combining with these other forces to threaten livelihoods.

Chart of the Week

Spanish Olive Oil: It’s Going to Cost You More Because of Yet Another Poor Harvest Yield 

Many of us are great fans of Spanish olive oil.  Unfortunately, Spain – the top producer of olive oil – is having yet another poor harvest year.  Higher than normal temperatures and a prolonged drought have led to the trees either dropping their fruit too soon or producing significantly smaller olives.  According to Bloomberg, it is the 3rd lowest than the four-year average.  Making the situation worse is a growing crime wave where thieves are targeting stored oil reserves, the actual freshly picked olives, and even trees.  So, if you find the prices have spiked at the grocery store or at your favorite restaurant, now you know why.

Institutional Investing in Infrastructure Roundtable (i3)

I was honored to participate last Thursday at the Institutional Investing in Infrastructure (i3) Roundtable - hosted by DWS in New York — on the growing intersection of geopolitics and infrastructure investments.

The Roundtable began with me giving an update on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRI) and how the CHIPS Act has the potential to create more investment opportunities. We went on to talk about how the Ukraine War and the prospects of war in Gaza are likely to impact energy investments and how we may face a resurgence in fossil fuel investment.

We went on to debate whether deglobalization is picking up speed and truly leading to more on/nearshoring and it leading to logistics/supply chain investments. We then moved to discussing Europe and how it likely has a more diverse investable universe. 

The Global Week Ahead

October 15 - 22, 2023

In life, it is rare to begin a week knowing that by its end, unfolding geopolitical events will likely result in all of us living in a very different world.  This appears to be one of those such weeks as Israel prepares to enter Gaza to destroy Hamas after their vile attack nine days ago, killing more than 1,400 Israelis and wounding more than 3,000.  Iran has threatened Israel (the U.S.) if and when Israel moves on Gaza.  Iranian-controlled Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have already ramped up artillery and missile strikes into northern Israel, while other Iranian-backed militias are reportedly mobilizing in Syria near the Israeli border.  All this is happening as more than one million Gazans are urged to evacuate by Israel.

We are now watching to see if President Joe Biden visits Israel later this week, as Israeli officials confirm such a visit is possible. 

Elsewhere in the world this week, China hosts the 3rd Annual Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing, where China’s President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines.  This will be the first time Putin has traveled outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children to Ukraine and other possible war crimes.  We will be watching closely for what deals the two leaders strike.

While this is happening, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is reportedly going to visit Washington this week for meetings with President Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where they will discuss the situation in Israel and a possible Biden meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in November in San Francisco.  Foreign Minister Wang’s visit will likely come as the U.S. Department of Commerce issues long-awaited new restrictions on certain semiconductors and other high-tech equipment to China.

Another big event is being held in Washington this week: The EU-US Summit.  Hosted by President Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel will seek to hammer out significant agreements on steel, critical minerals, and other trade issues.  They will also talk about Israel and Ukraine.

Moving to the global economic week ahead, markets will closely watch China’s 3rd quarter GDP figures.  Also this week, Japan releases CPI numbers while closer to home, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday, and Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a speech in New York on Thursday.  Powell will be joined throughout the week with multiple Fed Governors and Presidents giving speeches. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Global

• The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

• The International Olympic Committee meets in Mumbai to determine if a number of sports are included in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, including cricket.

• The hybrid World Health Summit will take place in Berlin, Germany, through October 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ecuador holds presidential run-off elections.  The race is between lawyer and politician Luisa González and businessman and son of former President Alvaro Noboa Daniel Noboa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Russia's Duma Chair Vyacheslav Volodin will visit Vietnam to meet with National Assembly chair Vuong Dinh Hue through Oct. 16.

• The 134th Canton (China) Import and Export Fair will open in Guangzhou, China.  It is widely seen as a metric for the state of Chinese foreign trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand holds general elections.  All 120 members of the Parliament are up for election.  Polls show the center-right National Party holding a strong lead, but observers believe a coalition government of some sort will be required for them to lead.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Poland holds general elections.  The ruling party, Law and Justice Party, and its ruling coalition, United Right, are likely to struggle to win an outright majority, according to the latest polls.

• EU President von der Leyen travels to Albania and will meet with President Bajram Begaj and, separately, with Prime Minister Edi Rama.

• The Scottish National Party conference begins in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will finish a regional tour of Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt as the United States tries to contain the Israel-Hamas war.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

• Israel Inflation (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.  

Monday, October 16, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning, followed by consultations on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).     

• The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the Global Future Councils meets in Dubai.

• The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) holds the World Investment Forum 2023 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.  The aim of the Forum is to encourage climate action, clean energy, healthcare, and food security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to present as early as today new restrictions on semiconductor and other hi-tech equipment sales to China.

• Jamaica celebrates Heroes’ Day, a national holiday.  The day commemorates scholars, businessmen, and other leaders who contributed to the freedom of Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention & Expo in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  Later in the day, Harker will speak virtually on the economic outlook before the National Association of Corporate Directors Webinar.

• US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

• Canada Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Peru GDP (August), Unemployment (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Union representing workers at Australia’s Gorgon and Wheatstone liquified natural gas facilities working for Chevron may go on strike again.  The union was going to go on strike briefly in September but returned to work thinking a deal was at hand.  But negotiations have been rocky.  The impact of such a strike would be significant for Western Europe, where LNG prices reached seven-month highs.

• Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi in Beijing. He will discuss further trade and investment opportunities with Xi and will stay on to attend the 3rd Belt and Road Forum while there. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

• Japan Industrial Production (August), Capacity Utilization (August)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCIs (September)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Philippines Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with Eurogroup President Pascal Donohoe, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, and European Commissioner for the Economy Paolo Gentilino for a working lunch.  She will then address and participate in the Eurogroup Finance Ministers meetings and then participate in a press conference after the meeting.  They are expected to discuss transatlantic economic dialogue, the future of European capital and financial markets, and exchange views with market participants on drivers for unlocking capital funding in the EU preparation of the Euro Summit.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen stays in Albania to attend the Berlin Process Summit.   The Berlin Process was established in 2014 as a platform for high-level cooperation between officials of the Western Balkan Six (WB^) and their peers in Berlin and EU institutions, international financial intuitions, and the region’s civil society.  She will take part in the inauguration of the liaison office of the College of Europe in Tirana.

• The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss urban wastewater treatment, Co2 emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, and preparing for the COP28 climate change conference that is being held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023.

• The Constitutional Court of Georgia will announce a decision on the impeachment of President Salome Zurabishvili. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives opening remarks at the 2023 SRB-ECB CMDI Seminar in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board member Anneli Tuomine gives a speech at the 2023 SRB-ECB CMDI Seminar in Brussels, Belgium 

• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks on the UK economic outlook at the OMFIF via live broadcast.

• Eurozone Balance of Trade (August)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

• Italy Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Hungary Construction Output (August)

• Bulgaria Inflation (September)

• Croatia Inflation (September)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

• Serbia Building Permits (August)

• Poland Inflation (September)

• Montenegro Inflation (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Budget Balance (September)

• Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, and runs through October 20.  Government ministers and energy executives will gather to discuss new oil and gas field discoveries.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation (September) 

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 751 Committee (concerning the Somali terrorist organization Al-Shabaab), followed by consultations on the 1559 report (regarding foreign military forces in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Congress returns to session after being out last week for the Columbus Day holiday.  The House of Representatives will continue seeking a new Speaker of the House, with a new vote being scheduled for today.  Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) was chosen by the Republican Caucus last week in a close vote.  But it does not appear he has enough support to win in a general vote of the House.

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts the first-ever Canada-CARICOM Summit in Ottawa.  Leaders from the 15 CARICOM (Caribbean Community) member states and five associate members will discuss how, together with Canada, can build inclusive and sustainable economies, increase trade and investment, and promote multilateral collaboration. The leaders will also work to develop better policies to fight climate change and address its impacts in the Caribbean, including by exploring ways to improve access to financing for Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean.

• Chile’s President Gabriel Boric and Argentine President Alberto Fernández attend the Belt and Road Forum in China.

• FBI Director Christopher Wray is expected to hold a meeting of the “Five Eyes” members (intelligence chiefs of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the U.S.) in Washington, D.C.

• Former President Trump is expected to return to a New York State Courthouse today and all this week as his state civil fraud trial continues.  The President’s former legal counsel, Michael Cohen, and several of his former bankers are expected to testify against him. At some point, Trump is reportedly expected to take the stand and testify in his own defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled ”Responsible Innovation in Money and Payments” at the Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems Roundtable on Central Bank Digital Currency, Washington, D.C.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to moderate a discussion with Intel INTC.O Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger at the Economic Club of New York.

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks to the Real Estate Roundtable.

• US Retail Sales (September), Redbook (October 14), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September), Manufacturing Production (September),  Business Inventories (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), API Crued Oil Stock Change (October 13)

• Canada Housing Starts (September), Inflation (September), CPI (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China hosts the 3rd Annual Belt and Road Initiative Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing.  China’s President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines.  This will be the first time Putin has traveled outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children to Ukraine and other possible war crimes.  There are reports the CEOs of Russian energy companies Gazprom (Alexei Miller) and Rosneft (Igor Sechin) will join Putin, suggesting Putin will seek to clinch a deal with Xi for the sale of more natural gas to China as well as building the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline.  That pipeline will travel via Mongolia and have an estimated annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters (BCM).  Also, now that Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu appears to have been removed from power, it will be important to see who serves as the lead Chinese interlocutor with Russian and other military officials participating in the event.

• A Pakistani Special Court will formally charge former Prime Minister Imran Khan for leaking state secrets.  The country is bracing for protests around the country by Khan backers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Foreign Direct Investment (September)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (August)

• South Korea Export Prices (September), Import Prices (September)

• Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

• New Zealand Inflation (Q3), CPI (Q3), Global Dairy Trade Price Index

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September), Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Jordan’s King Abdullah II will be in Berlin, Germany, for crisis meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The talks with Scholz are expected to focus on the situation in Gaza and free hostages held by Hamas.

• The Russian Duma (Parliament) will vote on whether to withdraw from the nuclear test ban treaty.

• The European Council will hold an extraordinary meeting via video to discuss the situation in Israel and potential consequences for the EU, including migration risk, Russia using the crisis to its advantage, and the role the EU should play in the situation.

• France’s President Emmanuel Macron travels to Albania for bilateral meetings.

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss the EU economic governance framework, the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, and how to better help Ukraine.

• The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss reform of electricity prices and the security of supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a dinner speech at the 5th ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives a speech followed by Q&A at the European Supervisors' Education Initiative conference in Berlin, Germany.

• Bank of England Swati Dhingra participates in a panel at the Royal Economic Summit 2023 in London.

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

• UK Unemployment (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Inflation (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Financial Times Africa Summit begins in London.  A number of African leaders will speak, as well as World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Global

• UN Security Council sanctions on Iranian trade in ballistic missile and drone-related technology expire.  France, Germany, and the UK (the E3) will transfer the sanctions into domestic law, citing Iran’s violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

• The UN Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) holds an open meeting of the Counter-Terrorism Committee “Countering terrorist narratives and preventing the use of the Internet for terrorist purposes”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing for Jacob Lew to be the new U.S. Ambassador to Israel.  There is currently no sitting U.S. Ambassador to Israel, and we expect the U.S. Senate to seek to speed his confirmation through quickly.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar (European Economics and Financial Centre), London, England.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia.

• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives opening remarks at The Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Employment Mandate at the Louis E. Martin Awards Ceremony at the 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit, Washington, D.C.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion at Queens College, New York.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Workforce Challenges" before the "People, Possibilities, Practice: Designing a Better Future for Workers" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

• US Beige Book, MBA Mortgage Market Indexes (October 13), Building Permits (September), Housing Starts (September), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Changes (October 13)

• Brazil Retail Sales (August)

• Argentina Leading Indicator (September)

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Space Agency Council meets through October 19 in Paris.  The session will focus on improved sharing of Earth observation data for environmental purposes, including enhanced cooperation with Poland and preparations for the Space Summit to be held in November 2023.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate in preparation for the European Council meeting, which is being held October 26-27.

• Former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz goes on trial for giving false testimony.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde makes a visit to Mike Josef, Lord Mayor of Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel at the launch of the public consultation of the MAS Transition Planning Guidelines (TPG) in Singapore.

• Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Elisabeth Stheeman gives a speech at the London School of Economics on “Cyber Risks and Operational Resilience” in London.

• Eurozone Inflation (September), Construction Output (August), CPI (September)

• UK Inflation (September), PPI (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Slovakia Inflation (September)

• Italy Balance of Trade (August)

• Bulgaria Current Account (August)

• Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Auto Production (September)

• Israel Unemployment (September), Inflation Expectations (October), M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola FX Reserves (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

• South Africa Inflation (September), Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the Haiti sanctions. Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NASA is planning to launch an expedition to study the asteroid Psyche to get more clues on Earth’s origins as well as possible opportunities to mine the asteroid for critical minerals.

• Candidates for Venezuela's opposition presidential nomination will participate in the last debate before primaries on Oct. 22.  The front-runner is Maria Corina Machado but is banned from office by the edict of the Venezuelan regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives opening remarks at the 18th Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Stress Testing at the 2023 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference, Boston, Massachusetts.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session at a Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Business Day event in Madison, Wisconsin.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on "The Role of Policy in Addressing Inequality" before the New School's Schwartz Center for Policy Research, New York.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Chartered Financial Analyst Society Philadelphia 80th Anniversary Celebration.

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Money Marketeers of New York University Dinner in New York.

• US Initial Jobless Claims (October 14), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (October), Philadelphia Fed Employment (October), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (October), Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid (October), Philadelphia Home Sales (October), CB Leading Index (September)

• Canada PPI (September), Raw Material Prices (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia begins registration for presidential candidates and runs through October 25.  The election is on February 14, 2024, and at this point, three candidates are expected to run, including Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• China House Price Index (September)

• Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Australia Unemployment (September)

• Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss the state of the Schengen area, fighting cross-border crime and migrant smuggling.

• EU Trade Ministers will hold an informal set of meetings through October 20 in Valencia, Spain.  They are expected to debate the future of EU trade policy.

• In the UK, by-elections in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone Current Account (August)

• France Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

• Poland Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), PPI (September)

• Spain Balance of Trade (August)

• Italy Current Account (August)

• Serbia Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey FX Reserves (October 13)

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Building Permits (August)

Friday, October 20, 2023

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Contributions of regional mechanisms for peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-US Summit will be held in Washington, D.C.  In advance of the meetings, US and EU negotiators are working to iron out an on green steel and critical minerals before President Joe Biden hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel in Washington.  Additionally, they are working to avoid the reimposition of Trump-era tariffs on European goods, as well as expanded European retaliation against billions of dollars of American exports. The U.S. and the EU have set a deadline of October 31 to reach a deal on a “global arrangement” that would slash the tariffs while simultaneously pushing back against the Chinese steel and aluminum industries.

• Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, a national holiday commemorating the day in 1944 when a democratic rebellion overthrew the government of military dictator Jorge Ubico.

• The Pan American Games begin in Chile.  They run through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak to the SOMC Fall Meeting at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research in New York.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Risk Management Association Philadelphia Chapter Meeting.

• US Baker-Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 20)

• Canada New Housing Price Index (September), Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

• Mexico Retail Sales (August)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

• Colombia Imports (August), Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan will convene an extraordinary session of the Diet, in which Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will pitch a supplementary budget for economic stimulus.  The package could include tax cuts, as well. There has been some speculation Kishida would dissolve the Diet early to pave the way for snap elections.

• The Asian Development Bank’s 2023 East Asia Forum begins and goes through October 21 in Changsha, China.  

• In Tokyo, The Center for Strategic and International Studies and Nikkei hold the 20th CSIS/Nikkei Symposium.  The event will feature a number of leading Indo-Pacific security experts discussing the state of events in the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

• India Bank Loan Growth (October 6), FX Reserves (October 13)

• Japan Inflation (September)

• New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Credit Card Spending (September)

• Malaysia GDP (Q3)

• Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik is expected to travel to Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin.  Dodik, who is under U.S. sanctions, was indicted in Bosnia in August for ignoring decisions by the Bosnian Constitutional Court and the International High Representative Christian Schmidt, who is in charge of implementation of the Dayton Agreement that was put into effect in the 1990s over the governance of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority entity in the country.  Dodik is likely to seek Putin’s support and help in furthering trade and investment in Bosnia and continued favorable gas prices from Russia.  Dodik has met several times with Putin in the last two years and is seen as a supporter of the Russian President.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech at the conference "SSM Regulation, ten years since" in Rome, Italy.

• Eurozone New Car Registrations (September)

• Germany PPI (September)

• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October), Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

• Italy Construction Output (August)

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (October), Wholesale Prices (September)

• Greece Current Account (August)

• Poland Retail Sales (September)

• Slovenia Inflation (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Slovakia Unemployment (September), Current Account (September)

• Croatia Unemployment (August)

• Kosovo Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In Chile, today is the deadline for the drafters of a new constitution to deliver a new draft for public review.  Initial reviews suggest it will face a tough reception as being too conservative. This is a second attempt to write a new constitution.  A previous draft was rejected by votes by a 62% to 38% margin as being too liberal.  That version was several thousand pages long and was widely criticized for being too micro-focused. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 22, 2023

 Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds general elections for the President, Senate, and Chamber of Deputies. There are five candidates running in the first round, with the frontrunner being Javier Milei, a libertarian congressman from the Liberty Advance coalition.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Japan, voters in Nagasaki and Tokushima-Kochi will vote for lower and upper-house candidates.  The outcome of the elections is expected to influence if and when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds snap elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the „Deutschlandtag“ of the Junge Union Deutschlands, Brunswick, Germany.

• Switzerland holds elections for the Council of States and National Council.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 16 - 20, 2023

A relatively busy regulatory week ahead as two Federal Reserve Board Governors give speeches on financial regulatory issues and the SEC holds two open meetings to consider major regulatory proposals.  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on stress testing at the Federal Reserve Stress Test Research Conference.  And Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on innovation in money and payments at a Harvard Law School Conference.

The SEC’s two open meetings will tackle new restrictions on short-selling and new reporting requirements on securities loans.  The Federal Credit Union Administration is considering new regulations on fair banking hiring and simplifying insurance requirements.

On Friday, the Senate Banking Committee will consider the nominations of a number of regulators and senior regulatory staff.  All this takes place while the House of Representatives continues to struggle to find a new Speaker of the House.  House Republicans are, at this writing, still firmly split on who they want to put forward as Speaker.  We think finding consensus will continue to elude the Republican Caucus, and the House could effectively remain shut down this coming week.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives is in session, but no hearings are scheduled as the chamber wrestles with who will be the next Speaker of the House.

U.S. Senate

• October 17, 2:30 p.m.:  The Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation, and Community Development holds a hearing on “How Community Development Financial Institutions Promote Housing and Economic Opportunity”

• October 19, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee considers the nominations of Ms. Tanya Otsuka, of Virginia, to be a Member of the National Credit Union Administration; The Honorable Mark Uyeda, of California, to be a Member of the Securities and Exchange Commission; The Honorable Spencer Bachus III, of Alabama, to be a Member of the Board of Directors of the Export-Import Bank; The Honorable Jennifer Fain, of Virginia, to be Inspector General, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; The Honorable Claudia Slacik, of New York, to be a Director of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation; and The Honorable William Brodsky, of Illinois, to be a Director of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation.

• October 20, 3:00 p.m.: The Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy holds a field hearing in Lowell, Massachusetts, on “The Economic Impact of Federal Investments in Massachusetts.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events 

Federal Reserve Board

• October 17, 9:20 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled ”Responsible Innovation in Money and Payments” at the Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems Roundtable on Central Bank Digital Currency, Washington, D.C.

• October 17, 9:20 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar (European Economic and Financial Centre), London, England.

• October 18, 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia.

• October 18, 6;55 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives opening remarks at The Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Employment Mandate at the Louis E. Martin Awards Ceremony at the 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit, Washington, D.C.

• October 19, 12:00 p.m.; Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York.

• October 19, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives opening remarks at the 18th Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets, Washington, D.C.

• October 19, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Stress Testing at the 2023 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference, Boston, Massachusetts.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 13 – 9:30 a.m.:  The SEC will hold an open meeting to vote on two items: 1) new requirements on securities loans and 2) new restrictions on short positions and activity reporting.

• October 18, 10:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold an open meeting to vote on new regulations on volume-based exchange transaction pricing for NMS stocks.

• October 19, 2:25 p.m.: The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 18, 1:00 p.m.: The FDIC holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee of State Regulators for a discussion of issues that have potential implications regarding the regulation and supervision of state-chartered financial institutions.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Nothing of significance scheduled.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 16, 10:15 a.m.: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will give a keynote and participate in a fireside chat at the Symposium on Derivatives and Financial Regulation in Montreal, Canada, hosted by the CDPQ in Montreal, Canada.

• October 17, 6:00 p.m.: CFTC Director of Enforcement Ian McGinley Announces Updates to the CFTC’s Corporate and Individual Enforcement Policies in New York.

• October 18, 3:35 p.m.: CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham participates in a fireside chat at the Wharton Future of Finance Forum.  The talk is entitled “Paradigm Shift: Powering with Innovation  Financial Technology.” The Wharton School, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• October 18, 8:45 a.m.: CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero gives the opening keynote remarks at the Association of Asian American Investment Managers’ Annual Conference.  New York.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• Nothing of significance scheduled.

National Credit Union Administration

• October 19, 10:00 a.m.: The NCUA Board meetings to get an update on Cybersecurity and consider two proposed rulemakings (Simplification of Insurance Rules and Fair Hiring in Banking.)

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Nothing of significance is scheduled.

Farm Credit Administration

• Nothing of significance is scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 17, 2:00 p.m.: The Bipartisan Policy Institute holds an online event entitled “Lifetime Income: Improved Strategies for Retirement.”

• October 19, 12:00 p.m.: The National Economics Club hosts a speech by former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Richard Clarida on “Post-Pandemic Global Inflation: Causes and Consequences” in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations

• October 16: The American Bar Association holds their 2023 Antitrust and Sustainability: Friends or Foes? Conference” at Howard University in Washington, D.C.

• October 17: SIFMA holds its Global Tax Reporting Symposium at the New York Law School, New York.

• October 19: SIFMA and ISDA co-host their Annual Collateral Management Evolution Conference at the ISDA Conference Center in New York.

• October 19: The American Bankers Association hosts the MDI Partnership in Washington, D.C.

• October 19: The Institute of International Finance hosts a Roundtable on Payments and Technology in Frankfurt, Germany.

• October 19: The Institute of International Finance hosts AI in Finance Day in Frankfurt, Germany.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 6 - 8, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Israel

• “Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza”  Rand Corporation

  For more than a decade, Israel has clashed with Hamas in Gaza, with cycles of violence defined by periods of intense fighting followed by relative lulls. This brief summarizes a report focusing on a five-year period of this conflict — from the end of Operation Cast Lead in 2009 to the end of Operation Protective Edge in 2014. The report tells many stories and holds many lessons. It analyzes the changing face of urban warfare and how an advanced military fought a weaker yet highly adaptive, irregular force. It also provides a case study of military innovation — showing how the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) evolved operationally, organizationally, and technologically to meet ongoing hybrid challenges.

China

• “What is the State of the Chinese State? Pronouncements of its demise amid a strengthening of CCP control may be premature” The Diplomat

  Despite successive rounds of restructuring by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2018 and 2023 that led some analysts to proclaim the CCP’s absorption of the Chinese state, China’s government apparatus under the State Council survives and continues to strengthen important institutions.

• “China Isn’t Shifting Away from the Dollar or Dollar Bonds”  Council on Foreign Relations

  There is a widespread perception that China has responded to an era of heightened geostrategic competition and growing economic rivalry with the United States by shifting its foreign exchange reserves out of the dollar. It sort of makes sense – China does worry about the weaponization of the dollar and the reach of U.S. financial sanctions. And why would a rising power like China want to fund the Treasury of a country that China views as standing in the way of the realization of the China dream (at least in the Pacific). It also seems to be in the official U.S. data: China’s reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries have slid pretty continuously since 2012, with a further downleg in the last 18 months. Yet, that is not what I believe is actually happening.

• “The BRI at Ten: Maximizing the Benefits and Minimizing the Risks of China’s Belt and Road Initiative”   Boston University Global Development Policy Center

  To mark the tenth anniversary of China’s historic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) will be held in Beijing in mid-October, with several international leaders scheduled to attend.  A new report takes a deep dive, evaluating the promise of China’s overseas economic activity in general, and the BRI in particular, finding that the BRI has delivered significant benefits to host countries, but has also accentuated real risks for China and host countries alike.

North Korea

• “North Korea and China Aren’t the Allies You Think They Are”  Rand Corporation

  We have a habit of thinking of China and North Korea as allies. Indeed, China's Mao Zedong once described the two as being “as close as lips and teeth.”  North Korea is the only country with which China has a mutual defense treaty. Despite this history, however, there has been considerable friction between China and North Korea over the years.

United States

• “The Dysfunctional Superpower”   Robert Gates/Foreign Affairs

  Gates, the former Secretary of Defense as well as Director of the CIA, lays out in a powerful essay how the United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever. Never before has it faced four allied antagonists at the same time—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—whose collective nuclear arsenal could, within a few years, be nearly double the size of its own. Not since the Korean War has the United States had to contend with powerful military rivals in both Europe and Asia. And no one alive can remember a time when an adversary had as much economic, scientific, technological, and military power as China does today.

  The problem, however, is that at the very moment that events demand a strong and coherent response from the United States, the country cannot provide one. Its fractured political leadership—Republican and Democratic, in the White House and in Congress—has failed to convince enough Americans that developments in China and Russia matter. Political leaders have failed to explain how the threats posed by these countries are interconnected. They have failed to articulate a long-term strategy to ensure that the United States and democratic values, more broadly, will prevail.

Latin America 

• “Will This Be the Year Mercosur Breaks?”   Americas Quarterly

  The Southern Common Market – better known by its Spanish abbreviation “Mercosur” – is made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (Venezuela is a full member but was suspended in 2016).  It was established in 1991 by the Treaty of Asunción.  But since then, it has experienced multiple ups and downs.  However, multiple new threats, including a deadline for a deal with the EU, menace the region’s longest-lived regional bloc.  If it breaks up, what will it mean for the collective and individual economies of its members?

• “Remilitarization in Central America: A Comparative and Regional Analysis”  IBI Consultants

  This report is an anthology of studies examining the remilitarization processes in the Northern Triangle of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) undertaken by leading academic researchers in each country with the support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. In these countries, the United States is and has historically been the dominant external actor. As a comparative case, we examine Nicaragua, more closely aligned with Russia. In every country, the military had either governed directly or through civilian proxies for most of the previous 150 years.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Poles and Hungarians Differ Over Views of Russia and the U.S.”   Pew Research Center

  While both Hungary and Poland voted in favor of the United Nations’ condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two central European countries have since often diverged on dealing with Russia on the world stage. Poland pushed for the delivery of tanks to Ukraine and proposed additional sanctions on Russia, while Hungary’s government blocked military aid to Ukraine and continues to maintain an economic relationship with Russia.

Map of the Week

The Waiting List of Countries Wanting to Join The European Union 

European leaders will gather in Albania this week to discuss the possible enlargement of the EU and the status of a number of countries that want to join.  While Ukraine is the most talked about potential new member, there are eight other nations seeking membership.  The current list includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey (now known as Türkiye), and Ukraine.  Türkiye has waited the longest but has found consistent resistance from most EU members.  It will be interesting to see which nations might find their application expedited after this week’s meeting.