U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 9 - 13, 2023

Washington will be relatively quiet this coming week. Monday is a federal holiday (Columbus Day) while Congress is either not in session all week for the holiday (the Senate) or busy trying to figure out who the next Speaker of the House will be (House Republicans and then a full vote by the full House – as early as Wednesday provided Republicans can coalesce around a candidate). No committee hearings are scheduled.

There are only a few notable regulatory meetings or speeches this week – the notable exception being Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr speaking at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville. Barr will talk with ABA CEO Rob Nichols about where bank regulation is going.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will also be speaking at the ABA Convention and will address both the economic outlook as well as bank regulation.

Meanwhile, the world’s central bankers and finance ministers will gather in Morocco for the annual World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• Congress is in session this coming week, but no hearings are scheduled as House Republicans seek to figure out who the next Speaker of the House will be. House Republicans will be holding a “candidate forum” Tuesday to possibly vote on Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s replacement on Wednesday.

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session this coming week for the Columbus Day holiday. No committee hearings are scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 10 – 14: Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will be in Marrakesh, Morocco, for the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings.

• October 9, Monday, 11:00 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a talk with ABA President Rob Nichols at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

• October 9, Monday, 1:30 p.m.: Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Transmission” at the 65th National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas.

• October 10, Tuesday, 9:00 a.m. EST: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates, the state of the banking industry, and opportunities to enhance financial inclusion at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

• October 10, Tuesday, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “The Evolution of Monetary Policy” at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University Conference: The Legacy of Bennett McCallum and Lessons for Monetary Policy Today, Washington, D.C.

• October 11, Wednesday, 4:15 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability in Uncertain Times” at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and Policy Center for the New South Marrakesh Economic Festival, Marrakech, Morocco.

• October 11, Wednesday, 10:15 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Governor Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a fireside chat at the E2 Summit, Park City, Utah.

• October 12, Thursday, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Reserve holds its latest “U.S. Currency Education Program: Professional Cash Handler Webinar Series: Cashiers.”

U.S. Treasury Department

• October 10 – 14: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be participating in the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings in Marrakech, Morocco.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 10, 12:30 p.m.: SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw will deliver a keynote address at the Center for American Progress’ discussion entitled “Accessing Public Capital Without Public Disclosure” in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 10, Tuesday, 11:15 a.m.: Commissioner Summer Mersinger will participate in a virtual fireside chat at Paul Hastings’ Crypto Derivative Event.

• October 12, Thursday, 4:30 – 6:00 p.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin Johnson will deliver the Manuel Cohen Memorial Lecture on “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Finance” at the George Washington University Law School in Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Nothing significant to report.

National Credit Union Administration

• Nothing significant to report.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 11, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn gives remarks at the 2023 American College of Emergency Physicians Scientific Assembly in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Her speech is entitled “Beyond the Rhetoric – Conversations About Private Equity, Non-Competes & the Future of EM.”

Farm Credit Administration

• October 12, Thursday, 10:00 a.m.: The FCA Board meets at their headquarters in McLean, Virginia. The agenda includes voting on the “Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Final Rule.”

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 10, Tuesday, 12:30 p.m. EST: The Center for American Progress is holding a discussion on "Accessing Public Capital Without Public Disclosure." SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw delivers keynote remarks.

• October 12, Thursday, 9:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a discussion entitled “Which markets should be centrally cleared?”

• October 13, Friday, 10:00 a.m.: The Atlantic Council hosts a discussion with European Commissioner for Financial Stability Mairead McGuinness, as part of the 2023 annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Trade Associations

• October 8 – 10: The American Bankers Association holds its Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. Michael S. Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, at the Federal Reserve, will give participate in a talk with ABA President Rob Nichols on October 9 at 11:00 a.m. EST. On October 10 at 9:00 a.m.EST, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates, the state of the banking industry, and opportunities to enhance financial inclusion.

• October 10, Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Investment Company Institute holds a virtual panel discussion entitled “Financial Innovation Series: Blockchains: A Discussion on Types, Use Cases, and Other Considerations.”

• October 10, Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. ET: The Investment Company Institute holds a Networking Reception in Cincinnati, Ohio. ICI President and CEO Eric Pan will participate in a fireside chat to give his perspectives on the current landscape of the funds industry.

• October 12 – 14: The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Membership Meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, in conjunction with the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings.

  Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

October 6 - 8, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

United States

• “Support for Third U.S. Political Party Up to 63%”  Gallup

  Sixty-three percent of U.S. adults currently agree with the statement that the Republican and Democratic parties do “such a poor job” of representing the American people that “a third major party is needed.” This represents a seven-percentage-point increase from a year ago and is the highest since Gallup first asked the question in 2003. However, the current measure is not meaningfully different from the prior highs of 61% in 2017 and 62% in 2021, shortly after the January 2021 Capitol Hill riots.

 China 

• “China’s Law of the Sea”   War on the Rocks

  In this podcast, Isaac Kardon, author of China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order, discusses how the Chinese Communist Party thinks about maritime sovereignty and how it applies to individual disputes in its surrounding seas, and what it means for the US and its allies – and for overall global supply routes.

• “Microsoft Digital Defense Report”  Microsoft Corporation

  Microsoft’s latest report detailing major cyber-attacks globally reveals that Chinese hackers are increasingly turning their efforts toward espionage-related breaches of critical networks in Taiwan.   The report goes on to report Russia and China “this year pivoted away from high-volume destructive attacks and instead directed the bulk of their activity toward cyber espionage.”  

Italy

• “Has Italy’s Right-Wing Leader Left Fascism Behind?   Der Spiegel

• Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni began her career as a fan of Italy’s dictator Benito Mussolini.  Her domestic policies are considered nationalist by many observers.  But on the international stage, she plays a moderate.  Who is the real Meloni?

Russia/Ukraine

• “Assessing the Russia-Iran Partnership”  Rand Corporation

  The ongoing war in Ukraine has cast new light on the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran. Since February 2022, Russia and Iran have increased their defense and economic cooperation and publicly explored options that could transform the relationship into a broad-based strategic partnership. To inform assessments of the implications of Iranian military assistance to Russia, the authors of this Perspective describe the factors that drive Russian-Iranian cooperation and examine how the relationship might evolve. First, they briefly survey Russian-Iranian relations prior to February 2022 and describe Tehran's initial response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Next, they examine how the relationship has evolved since the summer of 2022 and explore how the conflict has led to the deepening of ties between the two countries. Lastly, they identify indicators that U.S. analysts and military planners can use to assess the degree of cohesion within the Russian-Iranian relationship as it evolves.

• “Should the West Threaten the Putin Regime Over Ukraine?”  The New Yorker

   Noted historian Stephen Kotkin, who has authored the award-winning three-volume biography of Josef Stalin, speaks of the possibility of a Russian “Tet Offensive” that could alter the course of the American elections. He also questioned the Biden Administration’s seeming decision to “take regime change”—a threat to Putin’s rule—“off the table.

• “Russia’s Crimean Red Line has Been Erased”  Foreign Policy

  In December 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood in the middle of the Kremlin’s St. George’s Hall, delivering his annual address to the country’s Federal Assembly. Nine months removed from his formal annexation of Crimea, the Russian president unspooled a historical overview of Crimea’s supposed importance to the Russian body politic.  Crimea, as Putin claimed, was far more than simply a wayward chunk of rightfully Russian land. Rather, the peninsula was the “spiritual source” of the entire Russian nation—a province that presented “invaluable civilizational and even sacral importance” for all Russians.  Few in Russia disagreed.  But now, as Ukraine unleashes near-daily assaults on the peninsula, the notion that Crimea presents some kind of Temple Mount—or even any kind of red line—for Russians has crumbled.

Chart of the Week

Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s Tenure is the 3rd Shortest in U.S. History

Washington is still gasping at the ejection of Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the Speakership of the U.S. House of Representatives this past week.  It was a short tenure – but not the shortest historically.  McCarthy comes in 3rd place.  The shortest tenure was in 1869 when Representative Theodore M. Pomeroy (R-NY) served one day.  The reason he only served one day was that then-Speaker of the House, Schuyler Colfax (R-IN), stepped down to be sworn in as Vice President (Ulysses S. Grant was President).  The House voted in Pomeroy as Speaker as a symbolic honor for him, and he retired the next day.   

Interestingly, while in office, Pomeroy concurrently served as an attorney for the Merchants Union Express Company in 1866 (back then, you could be a congressman and hold down another job).  Merchants went on to merge with American Merchants Union, now known as American Express. Pomeroy stayed on and served as First Vice President and General Counsel, along with the American Merchants Union co-founder, William Fargo (who also founded Wells Fargo), and his brother, James Fargo (who went on to serve for 30 years as the CEO of American Express).

Representative Michael Kerr (D-IN) comes in second for holding the Speakership for the shortest period of time.  He was also the first Democratic Speaker of the House after the Civil War.  He was also a staunch “War Democrat” (a Democrat who supported the Union in the U.S. Civil War).  He died in office from Tuberculosis after the first session of the 44th Congress.

The Global Week Ahead

October 1 - 8, 2023

This coming week, political eyes will be watching the unfolding drama in the U.S. Congress and three separate federal courts. First, the U.S. House of Representatives will see rebellious Republican members, led by Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL), offering a "motion to vacate the chair," triggering a likely vote on whether to force Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the Speakership.

The dramatic move comes on the heels of McCarthy's successfully gaining passage of a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the federal government open for another 45 days while the House and Senate work to get overdue appropriations bills done. 

The Republican House rebels are furious with McCarthy for cutting a deal with House Democrats to support passage of the C.R. (without provisions on border security and cuts to federal spending) in return for a separate up-or-down vote on Ukraine defense spending. At this point, it is anyone's guess how the motion to vacate vote will go.

Moving to the court cases, the civil trial brought by the State of New York against former President Trump begins on Monday. The case revolves around the New York Attorney General's allegations Trump illegally inflated the valuation of his properties to obtain loans for his business. On Tuesday, President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, is expected in federal court on gun charges. Also on Tuesday, former FTX Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal fraud case begins in New York.

Globally, we will be watching as E.U. heads of state gather in Spain to discuss the future of the E.U. and possible new members, including Ukraine. Moving to Asia, the U.S. and the Philippines will hold joint naval exercises off the southern coast of the Philippines.  The drills come during heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over control of the Scarborough Shoal. Last week, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to destroy barriers the Chinese had set up to block off Philippine fishing vessels, further ramping up China-Philippine tensions. The naval exercise also comes after the U.S. and Philippines held the largest-ever joint military exercises on the island this past April.

While this happens, China will hold extensive naval training exercises with Saudi Arabia off the coast of China, the second time the two nations have held such drills. It shows the growing relationship between the two nations. China played a decisive role in advocating Saudi Arabia's invitation to join the BRICS group expansion last month. 

Also, this week, Russia begins a new round of conscription to help bolster its depleted military fighting in Ukraine.  More than 130,000 men between the age of 18 and 27 are expected to be called to service.  Previous conscription efforts saw large numbers of young Russian men flee the country to avoid the draft.

On the international economic radar screen, there are a number of central banks meeting this week to consider interest rate levels, including India, Australia, and New Zealand. Also this week, PMIs will be reported by a slew of countries, including China, Canada, the U.S., Japan, Germany, Italy, and the U.K.  Moving to the U.S., markets will be watching the ISM releases and jobs reports. Also, there will be several significant speeches by Federal Reserve Board members, which will likely reveal the Fed's economic outlook and regulatory agenda.

Finally, we remind readers that the annual fall World Bank/IMF meetings begin the following week (October 9-15) in Marrakech, Morocco. 

There is a lot else happening around the world this coming week. Below is what we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Global

• The Universal Postal Union, in conjunction with the UN, holds the 4th Extraordinary Congress in Riyad, Saudi Arabia.  The agenda will cover supply chain challenges and mail services, reforms to the Universal Postal Union’s institutional framework, and discussion and adoption of the “Green Package” proposal to help the postal services of the world meet climate targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds its first televised presidential debate. Five candidates will participate.

• Ecuador's presidential candidates Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will debate before the presidential election on Oct. 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China celebrates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

• Today is the Republic of Korea Alliance Day, marking the US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953.

• Today is Tuvalu Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Cyprus Independence Day, celebrating the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1960.

• France elects a new President of the Senate.

• The United Kingdom's Conservative Party will hold its annual national conference through Oct. 4.

• Russia's fall conscription season will begin. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey's National Assembly will return to session, with its vote on Sweden's accession to NATO on the agenda.   Much may hinge on whether the U.S. agrees to self-16 fighter jets which Turkish President Erdogan has long wanted and has suggested may be the price for Sweden’s admission to NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria celebrates its 63rd anniversary of independence from Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Monday, October 2, 2023 

Global

• Brazil takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

• The Nobel Prize for Medicine is announced.

• The OECD’s 10th Forum on Green Finance and Investment is held in hybrid form.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Former President Donald Trump’s civil fraud case begins in New York.  The case centers on whether the former President fraudulently valued properties.  Along with the former President, his three eldest children are also accused of fraud.

• The U.S. Supreme Court begins its autumn session. They will be considering a number of major cases, including one that could effectively rule the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is unconstitutional because it gets its funding via the Federal Reserve and not via Congressional appropriations. Another case will look at the precedent of federal judges deferring to administrative judges at federal administrative agencies to interpret vague statutes – the upshot being that if they change this precedent, federal regulatory agencies would likely be curtailed in their regulatory agendas.

• In Guatemala, large peasant organizations will demonstrate and erect roadblocks throughout the country to protest alleged actions by the prosecutor's office targeting the electoral process. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in a roundtable with workers, small business owners, local employers, and community leaders to discuss efforts to redevelop and grow the local economy in York, Pennsylvania.  Also participating will be Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability at the Forecasters Club Luncheon at the Cornell Club, New York.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on the economic outlook before the 50 Club of Cleveland Monthly Meeting.

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), ISM Manufacturing PMI (September), Construction Spending (August)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September), BCB Focus Market Readout

• Peru Inflation (September)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

• Mexico Business Confidence (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Costa Rica Current Account (Q2)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (August), Current Account (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Opening ceremony for Philippines-U.S. Samasama naval exercise. The joint-Naval exercises go through October 13 and will be held off the coast of Southern Luzon.  They come at a time of heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over control of the Scarborough Shoal.  Last week, Philippine President Marcos ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to destroy barriers the Chinese had set up to block off Philippine fishing vessels.  The exercise also comes after the US and Philippines held the largest-ever joint military exercises on the island.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates the National Day of Golden Week.

• India’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday.

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q3), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September),

• South Korea Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (September), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September), Commodity Prices (September)

• New Zealand Building Permits (August)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Inflation (September)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Empresarial El Diario Vasco in San Sebastián, Spain.

• Bank of England Director of Insurance Supervision Shoib Khan gives a speech at the Association of Financial Mutuals Annual Conference in London.

• Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, takes part in a fireside chat hosted by Redburn and Rothschild on macro and monetary policy in London.

• Eurozone Unemployment (August)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIs (September)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (August), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (August)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (July)
  
  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Iraq Independence Day, celebrating the day it gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

• Today is the 5th anniversary of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Guinea celebrates its 65th anniversary of independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Angola FX Reserves

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Prize for Physics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In the House of Representatives, we expect Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to offer a motion to vacate the chair – effectively, a no-confidence vote – for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Such a vote, if successful, would force McCarthy from the chair and likely throw the House and the Republican Caucus into chaos as they struggle to figure out who should be the new Speaker of the House.  Currently, there are reports circulating that House Majority Whip Tom Emmers (R-MN) is a leading candidate acceptable to the anti-McCarthy House Republicans.

• The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX begins in New York.

• Peru's prosecutor's office will meet with U.S. authorities to discuss the extradition of former President Alejandro Toledo.

• El Salvador's presidential election campaign period will begin ahead of the vote in February 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a speech before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

• US Redbook (September 30), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), JOLTS Job Quits (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

• Mexico FX Reserves (August)

• Brazil Industrial Production (August)

• Colombia Exports (August), Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

• Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• South Korea’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates National Foundation Day.

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August)

• New Zealand NNIER Business Confidence (Q3), NZIER Capacity Utilization (Q3), Global Daily Trade Price Index

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Pakistan Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Germany celebrates its reunification in 1990,  a national holiday. Markets are closed.

• The Constitutional Court of Georgia will consider the impeachment suit against Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili brought by the ruling Georgian Dream party.

• Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland will ban the entry of Russian-registered passenger cars.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech on “Key factors of inflation and ECB’s response” at the Annual Economics Conference “Descending from the inflation peak: Lessons and insights” organized by the Bank of Lithuania in Vilnius. Later, he participates on a panel discussing “Descending from the inflation peak: Lessons and insights.”

• France Budget Balance (August)

• Spain Unemployment (September)

• Romania PPI (August)

• Switzerland CPI ((September), Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Saudi Arabia and China may begin holding “Blue Sword” joint-naval training exercise in Zhanjiang, which is south of China’s Guangdong province (neither Beijing nor Riyadh has given a definitive start date yet).  This is the second-ever joint naval training exercise China and Saudi Arabia have held, showing the growing relationship between the two countries. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

• Turkey Inflation (September), CPI (September), PPI (September)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September), GDP (Q2)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s two largest workers unions have called for indefinite strikes to protest against the cost of living crisis.  The crisis comes after the government canceled a petrol subsidy.

• Mozambique is expected to sue shipbuilder Privinvest, its owner Iskandar Safa, and Credit Suisse in London on Tuesday over a decade-old $2 billion “tuna bond” scandal. However, UBS, which acquired Credit Suisse recently, is expected to attempt to settle the case before the case begins.

• Ethiopia will host this year’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU) ​Regional Development Forum for Africa in Addis Ababa. This year’s theme is “Digital transformation for a sustainable and equitable digital future.”

• The Windaba Conference 2023 begins in Cape Town, South Africa.  The conference is the premier wind energy in Africa and brings together energy ministers and leading energy companies together to discuss new projects and developments in the sector.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q2)

• Nigeria PMIs (September)

• Angola GDP (Q2)

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Global

• OPEC+ holds a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee hearing to discuss the state of the oil markets and prices. They will also discuss potential new oil quotas recommendations.

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is expected to release its Global Stocktake related Report.

• The Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, appears in federal court on gun charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on the Role of Research, Data, and Analysis in Banking Reforms at the 2023 Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives brief welcome remarks before the 2023 Community Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

• US Global Composite & Services PMIs (September), MBA Mortgage Market Index (September 29), ADP Employment (September), ISM Services PMI (September)

• Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (September)

• Colombia PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Jibun Bank & Composite PMIs (September)

• South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (September), Judo Bank Services PMI (September)

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives the inauguration speech for Minouche Shafik as President of Columbia University in New York, USA 

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the 1st Annual Conference organized by the Central Bank of Cyprus.

• ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a keynote speech and chairs a session at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• Eurozone Services & Composite PMIs (September), Retail Sales (August), PPI (August)

• Germany Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• Central Bank of Poland Interest Rate Decision

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• Ireland AEB Services PMI (September), Unemployment (September)

• Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (September), GDP (Q2)

• Romania Retail Sales (August)

• Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (September)

• Hungary Retail Sales (August)

• Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Lesotho Independence Day, celebrating when it became a sovereign state from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana PMI (September)

• Kenya PMIs (September)

• Uganda PMIs (September)

• Zambia PMIs (September)

• South Africa PMIs (September)

• Uganda Current Account (September), Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (September) 

Thursday, October 5, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Prize for Literature is announced.

• Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (September)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and also to co-chair the U.S.-Mexico High-Level Security Dialogue.  One key issue they will discuss is fentanyl trafficking.  Also attending the Dialogue will be U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland.  Blinken will also travel to Austin and Houston, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector at the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference: Managing Cyber Risk from the C-Suite, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a conversation-style interview on the economy, monetary policy, and the Fed’s role in fostering economic growth before the hybrid Economic Club of New York luncheon.

•  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester gives brief opening remarks before the Chicago Payments Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the national outlook before the 2023 WilmingtonBiz Conference & Expo, Wilmington, North Carolina.

• US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), Challenger Job Cuts (September)

• Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), Ivey PMI (September)

• Colombia Inflation (September)

• Uruguay Inflation (September), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• El Salvador GDP (Q2)

• Argentina Industrial Production (August)

• Paraguay Inflation (September)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan will release its second round of treated Fukushima wastewater into the Pacific Ocean.  The releases, despite being approved by the International Atomic Energy Administration (IAEA) as being well below safe levels,  have come under intense criticism from China, who have imposed a ban on all fish products exported by Japan to China.

• The ICC Cricket World Cup in India begins, with ten of the world's best teams battling it out over the next six weeks in the 50-over format of the game. The home nation is the favorite, followed by holders England, Australia, and Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea CPI (September), Inflation (September), FX Reserves (September)

• India Global Composite & Services PMIs (September)

• Singapore Retail Sales (August)

• Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

• Taiwan Inflation (September)

• Philippines Inflation (September)

• Thailand Inflation (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Political Community meets in Granada, Spain.  This is the 3rd meeting of the Community, bringing together leaders from the EU to discuss the future of the EU as well as considering admittance of new members, including Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos chairs of keynote speech session at the 2023 ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: Bridging Science and Practice in Frankfurt, Germany 

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• France Industrial Production (August), HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• UK S&P/Global/CIPS Construction PMI (September)

• Spain Industrial Production (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

• Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey FX Reserves (September 29)

• Egypt FX Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique PMIs (September)

• Reserve Bank of Uganda Interest Rate Decision

• Rwanda PPI (August)

Friday, October 6, 2023

Global

• The Nobel Peace Prize is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The presidents of Panama, Laurentino Cortizo, and Costa Rica, Rodrigo Chaves Robles, will visit the Darien region in Panama to address the migration crisis. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Brookings Institution Event: Making American’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century, Washington, D.C.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (September), Used Car Prices (September), Total Vehicle Sales (September)

• Canada Unemployment (September)

• Brazil Car Production (September)

• Mexico Auto Production and Exports (September)

• Chile Inflation (September)

• Costa Rica Inflation (September)

• Colombia Inflation (September)

• El Salvador Inflation (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Household Spending (August), Average Cash Earnings (August), Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

• The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision

• Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review, Retail Sales (August)

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

• Singapore FX Reserves (September)

• Philippines Unemployment (August), Industrial Production (August)

• Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Heads of State hold informal meetings in Granada, Spain.  They are expected to discuss the EU’s Strategic Agenda, which includes enlarging the EU and possibly allowing Ukraine to join.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Factory Orders (August)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (September)

• Hungary Industrial Production (August)

• Switzerland Unemployment (September)

• Italy Retail Sales (August)

• Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Greece Balance of Trade (August)

• Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Ukraine FX Reserves (September)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (September), FX Reserves (September)

Middle East

• Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mauritius Inflation (September), FX Reserves (September)

• Seychelles Inflation (September)

• South Africa FX Reserves (September)

• Uganda Balance of Trade (August), Business Confidence (September)

Saturday, October 7, 2023

Global

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China FX Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Global

• The 2023 Internet Governance Forum begins in Kyoto, Japan.  The Forum will discuss the governance of the Internet.

• The Nobel Peace Prize for Economics is announced tomorrow (Monday)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Germany’s states of Bavaria and Hesse hold elections.

• Luxembourg holds Parliamentary elections.

• South Korea’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates National Foundation Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 2 - 6, 2023

The coming week will be critical for the future of the Consumer Financial Protection Board (CFPB) as the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear oral arguments over whether the agency is constitutionally legal.  The core of the case, which was brought by groups representing the payday lending industry, questions whether the way the CFPB is funded (which comes from the Federal Reserve instead of Congressional appropriations) is fatally flawed.   In other words, the Supreme Court could rule the CFPB is unconstitutionally structured and either gets Congress to restructure its funding or cease to exist.

Also, this past Friday, the Supreme Court agreed to take up a case related to the 2011 Federal Reserve Board’s rule regulating swipe fees for debit cards.  The lawsuit argues the fees set by the Fed are arbitrary and too high.  It may allow the Justices to look further at the Durbin Amendment, which granted the Fed further power over credit card companies and their fee structures.

Turning to the regulatory agencies, no significant regulatory proposals are being considered this coming week.  But there will be a lot of speeches about regulatory issues, particularly by Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, who will give two significant speeches on bank regulation.  The CFTC will see most of their commissioners and Chair Benham give major policy speeches this coming week, too.  

Finally, we will be closely watching a joint appearance by Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn and Justice Department Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter on antitrust enforcement and what the two seek to achieve by the new merger guidelines they recently released.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives 

• There are no hearings in the House Financial Services Committee currently scheduled.

U.S. Senate

• There are no hearings in the Senate Banking Committee currently scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 2, 1:00 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.” at the Forecasters Club Luncheon, Cornell Club in New York.

• October 4, 10:25 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “The Role of Research, Data, and Analysis in Banking Reforms” at the 2023 Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri.

• October 5, 12:15 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector” at the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference: Managing Cyber Risk from the C-Suite, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio.

• October 6, 12:00 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a keynote speech at the Brookings Institution, “Making American’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century” in Washington, D.C.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 3, 2:00 p.m.: The SEC and the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board will host an event entitled “Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government”  to share information about TSP accounts and things to consider when retiring or leaving federal service.  The event will be done virtually.  The first will be at the University of North Georgia and the Second at Dalton State College in Georgia.

• October 4, 8:00 a.m.: The SEC is partnering with the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) and the Georgia Secretary of State for two joint investor roundtables.

• October 5, 8:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 4, 1:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Advisory Committee on Community Banking holds a virtual meeting, beginning at 1 p.m., of the Minority Depository Institutions Subcommittee on "economic trends and key challenges and opportunities and the work of the banking industry and private entities that support MDIs and Community Development Financial Institutions."

• October 5, 9:00 a.m. EST: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Community Banking for a discussion of issues that are of interest to community banks, including examination policies and procedures, credit and lending practices, deposit insurance assessments, insurance coverage, and regulatory compliance. 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• October 3, 8:30 a.m. EST: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency holds a meeting of the Mutual Savings Association Advisory Committee to advise the OCC on regulatory or other changes the OCC may make to ensure the health and viability of mutual savings associations.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 2, 10:20 a.m. EST/Chicago: Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver the keynote address and participate in a fireside chat at the FIA Expo 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

• October 2, 2:50 EST: Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate on a panel titled “Tokenization and Its Role in Accelerating Collateral Management” at FIA Expo 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

• October 2, 11:10 a.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat with former CFTC Chair J. Christopher Giancarlo at the Fordham Law Blockchain Regulatory Symposium in New York.

• October 4, 4:50 a.m. EST/9:50 a.m. London time) Commissioner Goldsmith Romero will participate on the virtual panel, Carbon Credits—questioning the quality today, the potential tomorrow, at The Economist’s Sustainability Week: Countdown to COP28.

• October 4, 11:15 a.m. EST: Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Financial Markets Group Fall Conference, Chicago, Illinois.

• October 4, 12:00 p.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will provide opening remarks at a CFTC Office of Customer Education and Outreach and Office of Technology Innovation virtual event on social media investment fraud and artificial intelligence for World Investor Week.

• October 4, 12:00 p.m. EST: The CFTC’s Office of Customer Education and Outreach and Office of Technology Innovation will host Technology and Fraud: Stopping Scams in a Digital World, a free virtual event for financial educators, innovators, regulators, and anyone with interest in these issues, in recognition of World Investor Week – Oct 2-9. Experts will discuss social media-driven investment fraud and the role artificial intelligence (AI) may play in accelerating online fraud.

• October 5, 1:00 p.m. EST: The CFTC”s Global Markets Advisory Committee meets.  Their agenda includes: Presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee on the subcommittee's workstreams involving U.S. Treasury market reforms, global standards and best practices for market volatility controls and circuit breakers, improving liquidity across asset classes, international alignment of trading and clearing obligations to address market fragmentation; Consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Technical Issues Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving international standardization and amalgamation of trade reporting for swaps market oversight, global coordination of market events, improving efficiencies in post-trade processes, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on the subcommittee's workstreams involving industry standards and best practices for tokenized asset markets, the regulation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and utility tokens, and identification of other issues to address in digital finance and tokenization of assets, non-financial activities and Web3, and blockchain technology and consider recommendations from the subcommittee on such workstreams.

• October 5, 11:00 a.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will provide a keynote speech on Emerging Carbon Markets at the Baker Institute Annual Energy Summit in Houston, Texas.

• October 7, 9:15 a.m. EST: Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will deliver a keynote address at the North American Millers’ Association 2023 Annual Meeting in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• October 6, 9:00 a.m. EST: Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, delivers morning keynote remarks at the Brookings Institution’s “Making America’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century” Conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

• October 3-4: The National Credit Union Administration holds its MDI Symposium. the event aims to support minority depository institutions and will be held at the NCUA headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 4, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Trade Commission staff will host a virtual roundtable discussion to better understand the impact of generative artificial intelligence on creative fields.  FTC Chair Lina Kahn gives opening remarks.

• October 5, 10:00 a.m. EST: FTC Chair Lina Kahn and DoJ Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter will discuss antitrust enforcement at the Brookings Institution in Washington. The event can be attended in person or watched virtually.

• October 5, 1:30 p.m. EST: The FTC and DoJ jointly hold a Public Workshop on Merger Guidelines virtually.

Farm Credit Administration

• No public events or meetings are currently scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 2, 1:00 p.m. EST: The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on "How Risky Are the Banks Now? What Regulatory Reforms Make Sense?"

• October 6, 9:00 a.m. EST: The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Making America's Payment System Work for a Digital Century." Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, delivers morning keynote remarks, and Christopher Waller, member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivers afternoon keynote remarks.

Trade Associations

• October 2, 9 a.m. EST: The Institute for International Finance holds an online webinar entitled “Unlocking Private Climate Finance for Emerging Markets.”  

• October 8-10, The American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

September 29 — October 1, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Political Economy

• “Can Economists Predict Recessions?”   St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Research

  When people ask questions about the economy, they often ask about predictions. Will there be a recession soon? When will inflation come down? Why didn’t economists see the 2008 crisis coming? And perhaps most importantly: Do economists have any idea what’s going to happen to the economy?  These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. So far, no recession has occurred, although the forecasted risk of a downturn in the fourth quarter remains elevated at 34.4%.

• “Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Increase Unemployment?  Evidence from Early State-level Expirations”  Glenn Hubbard/Harry Holzer/Michael Strain, Economic Inquiry

  Abstract: During the 2021 pandemic year, the generosity of Unemployment Insurance benefits was expanded (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation [FPUC]), and eligibility for benefits was broadened (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance [PUA]). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021. In June 2021, 18 states exited both FPUC and PUA, and three states exited FPUC (but not PUA). Using Current Population Survey data and a wide range of estimation methods, we find that the flow of unemployed workers into employment increased by around two-thirds following early exit among prime-age workers. We also find evidence of reductions in state-level unemployment rates, increases in employment-populations ratios, and reductions in the share of households that had no difficulty meeting expenses.

Americas

• “The Coming Crisis for Latin America’s Left-Wing Leaders”  Americas Quarterly

  Social democrats now rule much of the region—but anti-incumbency, weak parties, and more may soon make them an endangered species.  Despite their sinking poll numbers, they vow to make a comeback.  The big question is: What does all this political change mean for Latin America and the markets?

• “Americans’ Weak Economic Ratings Slip Further in September”   Gallup

  Americans’ already negative assessments of the U.S. economy have become slightly worse in September, both in their perception of current economic conditions and their outlook for the economy’s direction. In this month’s update, 20% of U.S. adults say economic conditions are “excellent” or “good,” while 32% call them “only fair” and 48% “poor.” The overall positive rating is down slightly from 23% in August, while the poor rating is up from 42% and is the highest Gallup has seen in a year.

• “Tracking Transatlantic Drug Flows: Cocaine’s Path from South America Across the Caribbean to Europe”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  This interactive report, with superb graphics, shows that the global cocaine trade has seen seismic shifts in the last decade as drug traffickers looked beyond the United States to set their sights on more lucrative markets in Europe.  Cocaine consumption in Europe has increased significantly over the last decade. The rise of cocaine has caused an unprecedented wave of drug-related violence across Europe, especially in port cities like Rotterdam. As drug use has increased, so have drug overdose deaths.

Indo Pacific

• “China is Growing Old Before It Becomes Rich: Does It Matter?”  Big Data China

  In 2022, after six consecutive years of declining birth rates, China recorded its first annual population decline since the early 1960s. According to a forecast by the United Nations, China’s population is set to fall from 1.426 billion in 2022 to 1.313 billion in 2050 and drop below 800 million by 2100. The problem for China, though, isn’t simply a falling population but rather the worsening ratio of retirees to individuals of working age, which will increase the burden on income earners to support the rest of the population. Every estimate and forecast we found (see Figure 1) shows that China’s old-age dependency ratio will continue to rise in the coming decades.

Middle East

• “Inside Iran’s influence operation”  Semafor

  In the spring of 2014, senior Iranian Foreign Ministry officials initiated a quiet effort to bolster Tehran’s image and positions on global security issues — particularly its nuclear program — by building ties with a network of influential overseas academics and researchers. They called it the Iran Experts Initiative.  The scope and scale of the IEI project have emerged in a large cache of Iranian government correspondence and emails reported for the first time by Semafor and Iran International. The officials, working under the moderate President Hassan Rouhani, congratulated themselves on the impact of the initiative: At least three of the people on the Foreign Ministry’s list were, or became, top aides to Robert Malley, the Biden administration’s special envoy on Iran, who was placed on leave this June following the suspension of his security clearance.

• “Nagorno-Karabakh: The Broader Implications”    Carnegie Middle East Center, Carnegie Institute for International Peace

  Beyond the tragedy of the Armenians, many countries in the region and internationally have a stake in what happens in the territory.  Specifically, Azerbaijan’s military takeover of the region has significant longer-term political and economic implications for Russia, Turkey, Israel, and the EU.

Africa

• “Political unrest in Africa threatens global critical mineral supplies and their futures”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  The recent coup in Gabon exacerbates the challenge facing mineral-rich African countries, where political instability undermines their development prospects. Gabon is the world’s second largest producer of manganese, which is used to produce iron and steel and is key to the production of electric vehicles. Mineral-rich countries must develop processing facilities that turn raw metal ores into refined, usable products in order to create good manufacturing jobs and expand economic opportunities in the service sector.  The Gabon coup is the eighth in West and Central Africa in the past three years, following government overthrows in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. But until recently, Gabon had experienced no armed conflict since the end of the Cold War and just one failed coup attempt in 2019.

Map of the Week 

While Everyone Worries About China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan, the Philippines Is Where Markets Should Watch Closely Now

Markets have been keenly focused on the increased tensions between Beijing and Taipei but they have not paid particularly close attention to the increasing tensions and military activity on the Scarborough Shoal off the coast of the Philippines.  By way of background, in 2012 China claimed the Shoal as their own, redrawing established maritime boundaries.  Asa result, the Philippines taking China to the International Court in the Hague.   The Philippines won the case in 2016.  However, then-President Rodrigo Duterte, as part of his move away from U.S. influence,  tried to sooth things with China but with little real effect. 

In a reversal of policy, current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has warmed up relations with the US since taking office, changed tactics and recently reasserted the Philippines rightful claim to the Shoal.  He went so far as to instruct the Philippine Coast Guard last week to remove a floating barrier installed by China to block Philippine fishing boats from entering the area.  

One critical question the financial market should consider as tensions between the two countries rise is what will the U.S. do?  Like Taiwan, the U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines.

Global Week Ahead

September 24 - October 1, 2023

The markets have a lot to watch in the political sphere this coming week, foremost being the looming U.S. federal government shutdown unless House Republicans can a figure out to cobble together a temporary funding extension.  At this point, the chances of successfully achieving a short-term deal look remote.  Tied up in all this is the question of whether House Republicans will also block new spending requests from the White House for Ukrainian military aid.  We are seeing resistance to more funding at an all-time high among a number of Republicans.  We will be offering regular updates as midnight, September 30th approaches as well as on what will happen with the Ukrainian funding bill.

Also, this week, the second Republican presidential debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.  Former President Donald Trump has again refused to participate.

On the geopolitical radar screen this week, we will be watching closely as President Biden hosts the Pacific Islands Forum in Washington.  The Forum, comprised of 18 countries, is an opportunity for the U.S. to further counter China’s efforts to establish stronger security ties with many of the nations.   

Also, this week, the EU and China hold their 10th annual Economic and Trade Summit in Beijing.  The meetings come at a time of considerable tension between the EU and China over the EU’s efforts to restrict technology exports to China as well as the EU’s heightened criticism of human rights in China.  The Summit will likely give markets some guidance on how these trade tensions are likely to unfold further – or not – in the coming quarter.

On the global economic calendar this week, markets will be focused on inflation data coming out of a number of countries. In Asia, China’s and Japan’s PMIs are due to be released while the U.S. will be releasing PCE inflation data and personal income and spending figures.  In Europe, Germany will be releasing their CPIs on Thursday and a closely watched consumer confidence report on Wednesday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Global

• Today begins Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin continues his travels to Djibouti, Kenya, and Angola through September 28.  The purpose of the meetings is to strengthen partnerships and enhance regional security in the African continent and come at a time when Russia and China are ramping up their own efforts in the region.

• Ecuador's presidential candidates, Luisa Gonzalez, and Daniel Noboa, will officially begin their campaigns for the presidential runoff vote on October 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Monday, September 25, 2023

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency 67th General Conference through September 29 in Geneva, Switzerland.

• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is organizing the first-ever Global Conference on Sustainable Livestock Transformation from 25 to 27 September 2023 at FAO headquarters, in Rome.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The United States and the 18 nations of the Pacific Islands Forum will hold their second annual summit in Washington, D.C., until September 26.  The Forum is comprised of 18 member nations.  The U.S. will be using the event to build stronger ties with many of these countries to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

• Guatemala's President-elect Bernardo Arevalo may resume the power transition process with current President Alejandro Giammattei.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a question-and-answer session hosted by the Wharton Central Banking Club in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (August), FDI (August), BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The 10th China-European Union High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue will be held in Beijing.  The meetings come at a time of heightened tensions between the EU and China over the EU’s moves to restrict high-tech hardware and semiconductors to China.

• The trial begins in Hong Kong over whether Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai violated Hong Kong’s national security law.

• The Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds its two-day annual meeting in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The focus of the meetings will be sustainability and multilateral cooperation.

• South Korean courts will hold an arrest warrant hearing for political opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.

• India and the U.S. will co-host the Asia-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference in New Delhi, India.  More than 150 participants from 35 countries will attend the three-day conference.  On the sidelines of the conference, India’s Army Chief, General Manoj Pande, and U.S. Army’s Vice Chief of Staff, General Randy George, will hold a press conference highlighting the growing relationship between the two militaries.

• Huawei will hold its big product launch in Beijing and will unveil its much-anticipated Mate 60 Pro and Mate X5. Both models have domestically made 5G mobile processors despite the U.S. cut in access to these vital chips.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to meet business leaders in Osaka, western Japan, and hold a news conference.

• Singapore CPI (August), Inflation (August)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

• Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meet in Brussels to discuss the Euro7 regulation, which establishes standards on emissions or battery durability for motor vehicles.

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will meet with Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics in Berlin, Germany.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers in Cáceres, Spain, to discuss the Cáceres Declaration, which is designed to defend culture.

• In the UK, UCU university staff begin five days of strike action.

• Paris Fashion Week begins and goes through October 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the  Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Lecture in Regensburg, Germany 

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions & Expectations (September)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (September)

• Poland Unemployment (August)

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

• Spain PPI (August)

• Hungary Gross Wages (July)

• Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (August), PPI (August), Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (August)

• Lebanon Inflation (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Senate is going to attempt to move a continuing resolution to keep the federal government past September 30.  Meanwhile, the House of Representatives returns to work, seeking a way to advance their own continuing resolution as well as advancing four separate appropriations bills.  At this point, it is seen as doubtful the bills will advance as dissident Republican members continue to demand significant cuts to the federal budget.

• President Biden travels to Detroit to show support for the United Auto Workers strike against Detroit automakers, a day before former President Donald Trump visits Detroit to speak to strikers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks on Post-Pandemic Challenges and Strategies for Addressing Rental Housing Affordability (via pre-recorded video) at the FedCommunities event "Keys to Opportunity in the Housing Market: Research on Strategies for Preserving and Expanding Rental Housing Affordability," Washington, D.C.

• US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July), CB Consumer Confidence (September), New Home Sales (August), Richmond Fed Manufacturing/Fed Services Indexes (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (September), Building Permits (August)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

• Colombia Business Confidence (August)

• Argentina Economic Activity (July), Retail Sales (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Foreign ministry officials from China, South Korea, and Japan will hold their first high-level trilateral talks since December 2019.  The meeting will take place in Seoul, and the focus of the meeting will be to see if they are capable of arranging a trilateral summit among the country’s leaders. 

• South Korea holds its first military parade in the country for nearly a decade.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

• Reserve Bank of Australia 2023 Conference on Inflation

• Singapore Industrial Production (August)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Malaysia PPI (August)

• Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the one-year anniversary of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 explosions.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden will be in Czechia to meet with Prime Minister Petr Fiala and participate in the Green Deal Summit 23.

• Spain’s parliament is expected to vote on a potential new ruling government coalition.

• The Annual Baltic Conference on Defense is held in Estonia.  German Defense Boris Pistorius will speak at the event, which is hosted by Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas. 

• Germany’s leading industrial trade group, the BDI, will host a conference in Berlin to discuss the EU’s controversial green plans for renovating old buildings.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a welcome address at the joint European Central Bank - Banque de France - Centre for Economic Policy Research conference "Monetary Policy Challenges for European Macroeconomies" in Paris, France 

• Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (Q2), Inflation Report, Base Rate, Deposit Interest Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (September)

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Global

• The BRICS member countries hold a parliamentary forum in South Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The 2nd Republican Presidential Debate takes place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have all qualified to participate.  Former President Donald Trump has refused to participate; instead intends to address striking auto workers and other union members in Detroit.

• President Biden travels to San Francisco to attend a campaign fundraising reception.  He will also attend a meeting of his Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

• In Panama, the trial of 36 individuals, including ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, begins.  They are accused of money laundering with Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA Mortgage Index (September 22), Durable Goods Orders (August)

• Brazil Bank Lending (August)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

• Uruguay Unemployment (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar travels to Washington for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior Biden Administration officials.

• China's Golden Week will commence and last through October 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (August)

• Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Australia Monthly CPI (August)

• South Korea Business Confidence (September)

• Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU General Affairs Council meets through September 28 in Murcia, Spain, to discuss EU enlargement.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (virtual)

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate on a panel at Analysis Forum "Rischi e sfide per il settore bancario europeo" in Milan, Italy. 

• EU Loans to Households (August),  Loans to Companies (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

• France Unemployment (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Greece Total Credit (August)

• Ireland Retail Sales (August)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Russia GDP (August), Unemployment (August), Real Wage Growth (July), Business Confidence (September), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Global

• The International Energy Agency’s Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Summit will be held in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will travel to Phoenix, Arizona to give a speech on strengthening democracy and honoring the legacy of the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ).

• The U.S. House Oversight and Accountability Committee holds the first impeachment inquiry hearing of President Biden.  It is expected they will move to subpoena Hunter Biden’s bank records.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in “Conversations with the Chair: A Teacher Town Hall Meeting” in Washington DC. 

• US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives closing remarks (via pre-recorded video) at the Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on “The New Job Hierarchy” before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

• US GDP (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September 23), Core PCE Prices (Q2), Retail Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (August), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (September)

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austin Goolsbee will give a policy speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington (virtually).

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September), Average Weekly Earnings (July)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September), PPI (August), Net Payrolls (August), Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (August)

• Costa Rica GDP (Q2)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (Q2)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Retail Sales (August)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss reform of EU asylum legislation.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel will take part in the Berlin Global Dialogue Forum through September 29.

• Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will make an official visit to Germany.

• In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to address the Westminster Correspondents’ Dinner.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB General Council Meeting, ECB Economic Bulletin

• ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat with Wim Mijs, CEO of the European Banking Federation, at the 7th SSM & EBF Boardroom Dialogue organized by the European Banking Federation in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in Session 2 of the 7th SSM & EBF Boardroom Dialogue organized by the European Banking Federation in Frankfurt, Germany. 

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

• Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser at Market News International Connect Event ‘A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step: filling gaps in the central bank liquidity toolkit’ in London.

• Germany Inflation (September)

• UK Car Production (August)

• Spain Inflation (September), Retail Sales (September), Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Italy Business Confidence (September), PPI (September)

• Ireland Inflation (September)

• Hungary PPI (August)

• Serbia Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

• Montenegro Balance of Trade (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

• Bosnia and Herzegovina Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

• Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (August)

• Botswana GDP (Q2) 

Friday, September 29, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers remarks and participates in a moderated discussion covering the economic outlook and monetary policy before a Long Island Association (LIA) Regional Economic Briefing, in Garden City, New York.  Later in the day, he moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in the moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

• Nicolas Vincent, External Non-executive Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at the Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain.

• US Core PCE Price Index (August), Personal Income & Spending (August), Retail Inventories (August), Wholesale Inventories (August), Goods Trade Balance (August), Chicago PMI (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (September), Quarterly Grain Stocks (Corn/Soy/Wheat – September)

• Canada GDP (July), Budget Balance (July)

• Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (August), Gross Debt to GDP (August), Unemployment (August)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

• Chile Copper Production (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

• Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August), Unemployment (August)

• El Salvador Current Account (Q2)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q4)

• Uruguay Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q2)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Russia will host a new Moscow Format meeting on Afghanistan in Kazan, Russia.  The Afghani Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, will attend to discuss “inclusivity of the current Afghan government, counterterrorism, and drug-related crime.”  Russia has been working to build stronger relations with Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal, although most observers believe the Afghan government is not particularly interested in moving forward in any significant way.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q2)

• India Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Government Budget Value (August), Infrastructure Output (August), FX Reserves (September 22)

• Japan Unemployment (August), CPI (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (August), Consumer Confidence (September), Housing Starts (August), Construction Orders (August)

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Philippines PPI (August)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

• Australia Housing Credit (August), Private Credit (August)

• Singapore Bank Lending (August), PPI (August), Import/Export Prices (August)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Tourist Arrivals (September), Inflation (September), FDI (September)

• Thailand Current Account (August), Private Consumption (August), Retail Sales (July)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August & September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan in Berlin.  It is the first joint meeting of the Central Asian leaders with an EU country.  The purpose of the meeting is to boost ties with the five Central Asian nations, both economic and security, offering an alternative to Russia.  The EU has ramped up its focus on the region since the start of the Ukraine War.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Murcia, Spain, to discuss EU enlargement preparation.

• The MED9 Leaders’ Summit will be held in Valletta, Malta.  Leaders from Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain will gather to discuss mutual economic and security issues.  They are expected to discuss the growing immigration challenges coming from North Africa.

• In the UK, ASLEF train drivers will begin refusing to serve overtime as part of demands for better wages. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the joint IEA-ECB-EIB conference on "Ensuring an orderly energy transition: Europe’s competitiveness and financial stability in a period of global energy transformation" in Paris, France. 

• Eurozone Inflation (September), CPI (September)

• Germany Retail Sales (August), Import Prices (August), Unemployment (September)

• UK GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

• France Inflation (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

• Spain Current Account (September)

• Italy Inflation (September), CPI (September), Industrial Sales (July)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

• Poland inflation (September)

• Greece PPI (August), Retail Sales (July)

• Hungary Unemployment (August), Inflation (September), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Inflation (September)

• Bulgaria PPI (August), Business Confidence (September), Tourist Arrivals (August)

• Slovenia CPI (September), Inflation (September)

• Serbia Retail Sales ( August), Industrial Production (August), Balance of Trade (August)

• Ukraine Current Account (August)

• Russia M2 Money Supply

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Swaziland (also known as Eswatini) holds legislative elections.

• Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August), Balance of Trade (August)

• Uganda Inflation (September)

• Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

• Kenya Inflation (September)

• Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the end of the fiscal year and the deadline for the U.S. Congress to come up with a temporary funding extension (a Continuing Resolution) or face a federal government shutdown.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Maldives will hold its second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (September)

• Bank of Japan to release summary of opinions from board members at its Sept. 21-22 policy meeting.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Slovakia holds legislative elections.

• Pope Francis is expected to name as many as 21 new Cardinals.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Botswana Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR 

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Global

• NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina holds a presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia’s first high-speed rail service – and the first high-speed rail operation in Southeast Asia – begins operations. Built jointly by Indonesia and China as part of China’s Belt & Road Initiative, it will connect Jakarta with West Java’s provincial capital Bandung.   It will be a 28-minute journey.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, the Conservative Party conference kicks off in Manchester. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Defense Secretary Grant Shapps are on the main stage.

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

• NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

September 25 - 29, 2023

The Senate Banking Committee may begin a process this week that will be historic for financial services: They will mark up the SAFER Act, allowing financial institutions to service marijuana businesses in states where marijuana is legal.  The implications are immense for banks, who have been lobbying for years for such legislation.  The legislation is not a done deal yet, as there are still one or two areas of conflict over legislative language. 

All this come as Congress remains deadlocked over passing a stop-gap spending bill to keep the government open.  We will be reporting separately on what is going on and implications for regulators.

Also, this coming week, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, which is holding an oversight hearing of the SEC.  Watch for fireworks as many Republican members are expected to confront Gensler over his ESG regulatory efforts and recent regulation aimed at private capital. 

We would note that Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen convened in executive session the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) held a meeting Friday afternoon (September 22).  The meeting was not scheduled or noticed when we published the Regulatory Week Ahead last Sunday. 

The Council heard an update from Federal Reserve staff on international market developments, including the outlook for global financial stability and macroeconomic and financial conditions in China.  The Council also received an update from Treasury staff on the public comments received on the Council’s proposed analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance regarding nonbank financial company determinations.  The Council will continue considering the public comments as it works toward finalizing the two documents.  You can read the full readout of what they discussed HERE.  

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

House of Representatives

• September 27 (Wednesday), 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Committee holds an oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to testify.

U.S. Senate

• September 27 (Wednesday) 9:30 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee is expected to mark up S. 2860, the SAFER Act, which will allow financial institutions to provide services to state-sanctioned marijuana businesses.

• September 27 (Wednesday) 10:30 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment holds a hearing on “The State of Flood Insurance in America.”  The witness will be Douglas Quinn, Executive Director, the American Policyholder Association.

• September 27 (Wednesday) 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee holds a hearing on foreign ownership in U.S. agriculture.  Witnesses include Gloria Montano Greene , Deputy Agriculture undersecretary farm production and conservation, Harrison Pittman , Director of the National Agricultural Law Center in the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, Fayetteville, Ark., David L. Ortega , Associate professor for agricultural, food, and resource economics at Michigan State University, East Lansing, Mich.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• September 25 (Monday) 10:00 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a question-and-answer session hosted by the Wharton Central Banking Club in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

• September 28 (Thursday) 4:00 – 5:00 p.m.: US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in “Conversations with the Chair: A Teacher Town Hall Meeting” in Washington, DC. 

• September 29 (Friday) 2:00 p.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• September 27 (Wednesday), 10:00 a.m.: SEC Chair Gary Gensler will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, which is holding an oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• September 27 (Wednesday) 3:40 a.m. EST/3:40 p.m. Hong Kong time: CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero to Participate in a Fireside Chat at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association’s (ISDA) Derivatives Trading Forum.

National Credit Union Administration

• Nothing significant to report.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• September 27 (Wednesday) 12:35 p.m.:  FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat with Politico reporters discussing antitrust and competition efforts as part of Politico’s AI & Tech Summit in Washington, D.C. 

Farm Credit Administration

• Nothing significant to report.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• September 28 (Thursday) 1:00 p.m.: The Center for American Progress hosts a discussion on “How the Supreme Court's Decision in Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Community Financial Services Association of America Could Harm Consumers."  Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will deliver keynote remarks.  Other speakers include Elyse Hicks, consumer policy counsel and coalition manager at Americans for Financial Reform, and Mike Pierce, executive director of Student B.

• September 29 (Friday) 1:00 p.m.:  The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Climate Change and Household Financial Well-Being: Understanding Risk and Building Resilience."

Trade Associations

• September 25: the Institute for International Finance and the WKO Austrian Digital Finance Forum co-host the Digital Finance Forum in Vienna, Austria.

• September 26 (Tuesday) 12:30 – 5:30 p.m.: The Financial Services Forum holds its annual Forum Summit Washington DC 2023.  

• September 27-28: The Investment Company Institute holds the “Future of Asset Management North America” Conference in New York.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Reccomended Weekend Reads

September 22 - 24, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

International Economy

• “Irrational Expectations: Long-Term Challenges of Diversification Away from China”  The Rhodium Group

  Some observers assert that diversification away from China is already well underway. Others caution that global value chains are simply too integrated to untangle, and the Biden administration’s de-risking policies are unlikely to succeed. Which camp is right? This new research note explores these issues using a wide range of available data points.

• “The Global Economy’s Real Enemy is Geopolitics, Not Protectionism”   Dani Rodrick/Project Syndicate

  The author, a Harvard Professor of International Economy, argues that what some decry as protectionism and mercantilism is really a rebalancing toward addressing important national issues. The biggest risk to the global economy stems not from this broader reorientation – which should be welcomed – but from a Sino-American rivalry that threatens to drag everyone down.

Indo-Pacific 

• “What Do We Know About Chinese Industrial Subsidies?”  CEPII (Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationals, Paris, France)

  While Chinese industrial subsidies have been one of the key drivers of international trade tensions, the details of the phenomenon itself are often overlooked.  Reviewing the existing datasets and methodologies used to assess Chinese public support, this Policy Brief tries to bring more clarity on what is known, and what is not.  The most frequently used datasets in the literature are dated and/or largely incomplete, and find limited industrial support compared to more specific analyses.  To further complicate things, the new development model pursued by the current leadership seems to champion the idea of “guiding” economic entities to align with Party-State objectives, which, by diffusing public intervention throughout the economy, makes it more difficult to assess the scale of subsidies.  The Chinese authorities’ highly structured and detailed communication and policy planning offers alternative metrics to assess the distribution and evolution of public support to the industry, enabling a complementary approach to triangulate the actual subsidies to industrial production in China.

The Arctic 

• “Arctic Geopolitics: The Svalbard Archipelago”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Arctic is increasingly viewed as an arena for power projection and spillover from conflicts elsewhere. In this regard, the Svalbard archipelago is an important case study because it has economic, scientific, political, and security implications for states in the High North, the United States, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance. Svalbard’s unique status as a sovereign territory of Norway with provisions for foreign nationals, Russia’s presence on the territory, and its interests at sea, as well as the archipelago’s proximity to critical Russian military locations, make Svalbard a potential geopolitical flash point. This brief examines the geopolitics of Svalbard and the security implications for Norway, the United States, and NATO.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine”  The Rand Corporation

  Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has imposed devastating losses on the Russian military and on Ukraine's military and civilian populations, but both sides have avoided certain escalatory options. Putin has been restrained for several reasons, including fear of NATO's military response, an information flow that filters out negative facts, promoting the view that Russia can win a protracted war, and incremental increases in NATO support for Ukraine.  The fact that Putin has avoided certain escalatory options to date does not mean that he will avoid them in the future. The Kremlin's control of Russia has become brittle, potentially encouraging Putin to consider options to shorten the war.  This paper examines what the risk is to Putin taking up any of these options.

• “Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Russia’s termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BGSI) was a main topic of discussion in United Nations General Assembly meetings this past week. The United Nations and others continue to urge Russia to rejoin the deal, while Russia declares its willingness to rejoin if its demands are met. It likely has no such intention. Continuing to block Ukraine’s agricultural exports is in Russia’s economic and political interest, while Russia manipulates its own food exports to appease food-importing countries. And its exit from the deal has not contributed to a global food price spike—for now.

• “Perseverance and Adaption: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive in Perspective”  War on the Rocks

  The outlook for Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive increasingly hinges on the attritional nature of the war. Which side has more reserves? Who can better manage their combat power in a prolonged standoff? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow Michael Kofman, who recently returned from the Ukrainian front lines, has written a fascinating account of what it will take to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. Kofman outlines how Washington should support Kyiv’s preferred approach to pushing the Russians back and what the West can learn from this summer’s experience to help Ukraine improve its ability to conduct operations at scale in the future.

Chart of the Week

Looking for a Job?  Federal, State, and Local Governments Are Hiring… A Lot

As the Federal Reserve raises rates, employment opportunities begin to taper off, and corporations begin to hold up on new hires (or so the Fed hopes), there remains one place that is still hiring: Federal, state, and local governments.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 327,000 new positions have been created among government agencies.  The Wall Street Journal (which produced the excellent chart below), estimates” that is close to 1/5 of all new American jobs created in the first eight months of the year.  In contrast, public-sector jobs accounted for 5 percent of employment during the equivalent period last year [2022].”

According to the Journal, most of the hiring at the state and local levels are filling backfill jobs in teaching and police departments where many public servants quit during COVID.

Speaking at the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit

September 19, 2023

It was great fun being a part of the “Morning News with Barron’s” panel today hosted by Jack Otter, Global Head of Barron’s Wealth & Asset Management Group and host of Fox Business News’s weekly “Barron’s Roundtable” show. What made it even better was to sit with Tony Crescenzi, Executive Vice President, Strategist, and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO. Tony is not only one of the most brilliant market strategists out there but also a true intellectual and student of history, not to mention an all-around wonderful guy.

This was the kick-off session to the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit being held at the Phoenician Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona. More than 400 financial advisors and strategists are in attendance.

Our conversation covered a great deal of ground, ranging from the looming U.S. government shutdown to a host of geopolitical issues and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do going forward with regard to interest rates. Tony had some brilliant insights into the issue of liquidity many major firms are grappling with now as a result of the Dodd-Frank Act and what it means for investors.

Thank you, Barron’s for asking me to be a part of this great conference. And in particular, thank you, Jack, for your superb hosting and questioning - never any softballs, always penetrating and smart! It was really fun!

Presenting at the Iowa Bankers Association Annual Convention

Des Moines, Iowa

December 18, 2023

It was a great honor and true delight to have the chance to speak at the Iowa Bankers Association Annual Convention in Des Moines, Iowa. When you get in a room with a group of state and local bankers - the men and women who play such a critical role in keeping their community’s economy going and growing — you know you are going to get some very smart, thoughtful questions on the global economy and geopolitics and what it means for their clients and customers.

And being in Iowa - and despite being the one speaking about the upcoming 2024 elections - I came away learning an awful lot from these great folks about where the elections may be headed (not the conventional wisdom!).

My presentation can be accessed below. And a few shots of the event, which was enormous - held in the Des Moines Convention Center. Thank you, Iowa Bankers Association, for having me out to speak - it was a great event, and I really enjoyed meeting and talking with so many of you!

The Iowa State House, Des Moines, Iowa. The golden dome is stunning as the sun sets every night.

Make it stand out

Being introduced inside the stunning Des Moines Convention Center!