Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

September 15-17, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Indo Pacific

  • “Electric Shock: Interpreting China’s Electric Vehicle Export Boom”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

    China’s rise as an automotive exporter is fueled by the growing importance of the country’s globally leading electric vehicle (EV) industry. However, despite the rapidly increasing sales by domestic firms like BYD, many of the EVs exported from China are made by Western companies like Tesla that have significant production capacity in the country. Exports of EVs made in China have critical implications for both legacy carmakers and policymakers in regions like Europe and the United States that have strived to diversify clean tech supply chains away from China while also advancing decarbonization. For the United States and Western Europe, focusing on boosting domestic innovation and manufacturing will continue to be an important tool to face this challenge.

 

  • “Measurement Muddle: China’s GDP Growth Data and Potential Proxies”  Big Data China

    How fast is China’s economy growing? Or, given the recent trends, how much is it slowing down? Obtaining a reliable answer to these seemingly straightforward questions has proved amazingly elusive. Despite the production of mountains of official data and a plethora of unofficial estimates, these are questions for which there are no consensus answers. There has long been a concern that China’s statistical officials have inflated the country’s data for its gross domestic product (GDP), which is ascribed to political incentives to present a rosy economic picture to its populace and the rest of the world (see Figure 1). Another recurring concern has been the undercounting of the contribution of the private sector to the country’s growth and employment, which may be due to its second-class citizen status, which may make it harder for statistical authorities to monitor effectively, and the large share of economic activity that comes from the service sector, which is inherently harder to count than produced goods.

 

Africa

 

Geo-Economics 

  • “The Origins and Efficacy of the Price Cap on Russian Oil”   Russia Matters/Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

    In the wake of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the international community levied a series of sweeping and unprecedented sanctions designed to disrupt the Russian economy and limit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war. This effort included a price cap on Russian oil, a novel sanctions regime collectively imposed by the G-7, the European Union, and Australia, designed to simultaneously lower Russian revenue while preserving the supply of oil in the global markets. Preliminary assessments, such as an Aug. 3, 2023, analysis by the U.S. Treasury Department, suggest that the price cap has largely achieved these goals to date. Global supply remains mostly stable, and Russian oil continues to be sold at a discount relative to similar products produced by other countries.

 

Global

  • “Five Things to Watch for at the UN General Assembly Opening”   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    The coming days will reveal whether the UN can remain relevant in a divided world. Top of FormBottom of Form  When world leaders convene next week for the annual opening of the UN General Assembly, the assembled nations will be anything but united. Geopolitical rivalries, political grievances, economic upheaval, and ecological crises are testing the legitimacy and credibility of the seventy-eight-year-old body. 

 

Graphic of the Week 

Where is Your Cup of Coffee Coming From?

 We are addicted to it in many forms.  But do you know where your coffee was grown?  It might surprise you. Bloomberg did a deep dive this week in the coffee industry.  Coffee is grown in about 70 countries, with five of them — including Brazil and Vietnam — making up about 85% of the world’s output. The rest comes from some 9.6 million growers in smaller producers around the world.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

September 10 - 17, 2023

First and foremost, we remember this week the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks, which took place 23 years ago.  The pain and memories of that tragic day do not dim for most of us.

Looking at the rest of the week ahead, it is jam-packed with major geopolitical and economic events.  President Biden visits Vietnam after the conclusion of the G20 Summit on Sunday, seeking stronger diplomatic and trade relations – a move being watched closely by Beijing.  Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to strengthen ties with the oil-rich dictatorial Latin American country as Hong Kong hosts the annual Belt and Road Summit of participating countries.

 Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok to arrange North Korean weapons and ammunition sales to help bolster Russian military efforts in Ukraine – risking new, tougher sanctions on both nations.

In the U.S., the House of Representatives returns from the August recess and immediately begins battling over getting appropriations bills done before the end of the month or risk a government shutdown.  Also, in the U.S. this week, the United Auto Workers are scheduled to go on strike unless new contracts are struck with the Big Three auto manufacturers, a potential new drag on the U.S. economy.

On the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank’s meeting and announcement on Thursday whether they have decided to raise interest rates again (which seems to be the consensus) as much of Europe – especially Germany – is struggling to stem stagnant economies.  Also of note, U.S. CPI figures are out later this week, as well as unemployment numbers.  In Asia, China will release inflation figures on Saturday and new unemployment figures. 

Below is our weekly report of what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 10, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador visits Chile.

  • Mexico’s Morena party concludes a weeklong selection process to determine who will represent the party during next year’s presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok, Russia. The purpose of the meeting, which includes leaders from Central Asia, is the encourage investment and economic development in Russia’s Far East.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to use the Forum to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on greater weapons sales to Russia to support Russian forces in Ukraine.

  • Russia will hold regional and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Venture Capital Summit 2023 begins in Kenya, bringing more than 300 investors from 35 countries to look at investment opportunities on the continent.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

Monday, September 11, 2023 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the 23rd anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York, Pennsylvania, and on the Pentagon.

  • The trial begins of ex-Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo, accused of taking bribes from Brazilian company Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Consumer Inflation Expectations (August), The American Bar Association's Economic Advisory Committee holds a virtual discussion with leading Wall Street bank economists on "Economic Forecast” in Washington, D.C.

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Mexico Industrial Production (July)

  • El Salvador PPI (August)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to shuffle his Cabinet.

  • French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Dhaka, Bangladesh, following the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, India, to discuss climate change, trade issues, and the Rohingya crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan machine tool orders (August)

  • India passenger vehicle sales (August)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. and Armenian troops will carry out military exercises in Armenia until Sept. 20 in a sign of deepening ties and waning Russian influence.

  • The defense ministers of Germany, Estonia, and Latvia will visit German arms maker Diehl in Roethenbach an der Pegnitz, Bavaria.

  • Norway holds local elections.

  • Today is National Day in Catalonia, Spain.  It is expected that large independence rallies will be held throughout the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The European Commission publishes economic forecasts for 2023 and 2024.

  • Italy Industrial Production (July)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (July)

  • Serbia Industrial Production (July)

  • Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • special envoy to Lebanon, former Foreign Minister Le Drian, visits Beirut for talks aimed at resolving a year-long impasse over filling Lebanon’s presidency and forming a stable government.

  • The United Arab Emirates campaign season for its Oct. 7 legislative elections will begin.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia industrial production (July)

  • Turkey unemployment (July), Industrial production (July), Current Account (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Manufacturing Production (July) 

 

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Global

  • Today is the opening of the 78th UN General Assembly.

  • Russia is expected to request a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss Western arms supplies to Ukraine.

  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) will launch its World Trade Report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. House of Representatives returns from its August recess to begin considering appropriations bills that must be completed by the end of the month or risk a federal government shutdown. The U.S. Senate will begin considering three bipartisan spending bills this week, which will pressure House Republicans to move more quickly on passing legislation and avoid a shutdown.

  • Google’s antitrust trial begins.  The U.S. Justice Department’s Antitrust Division has brought the case, and it is seen as the keystone to the Biden Administration’s policy toward restraining Big Tech’s growing market share of the tech sector (DoJ is also reportedly investigating Amazon, Apple, Ticketmaster, and other big tech companies).

  • Apple holds its annual event – dubbed “Wonderlust” – to unveil new products, including the highly-anticipated iPhone 15.

  • The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 2023 Global Aerospace Summit, with the theme, "Innovating the Skies, Connecting the World," through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (August), Redbook (September 9), WASDE Report

  • Brazil Inflation (August)

  • Colombia Balance of Trade (July)

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Total Social Financing (August), M2 Money Supply (August), Vehicle Sales (August), New Yuan Loans (August), Outstanding Loan Growth (August)

  • India Manufacturing Production (July), Inflation (August)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September), NAB Business Confidence (August)

  • Philippines FDI (June)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Northern Ireland's investment summit will occur through Sept. 13 in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Canadian Association for Business Economics Conference ‘Post-Pandemic Economics: What does the "New Normal" look like?  in Ontario, Canada.

  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September), Current Account (July)

  • UK Employment (July)

  • Spain CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Serbia Construction Output (July), Inflation (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Israel's Supreme Court will hear petitions against the government's "reasonableness" judicial reform law in a potentially major constitutional challenge between the country's different branches of government.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Retail Sales (July)

  • Israel Budget Balance (August), Consumer Confidence (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Crime Prevention Forum begins in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Rwanda Inflation Rate (August)

  • Nigeria Balance of Trade (June)

  • Angola Inflation (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

 

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Global

  • UN Secretary-General António Guterres is scheduled to deliver remarks at the United Nations Peace Bell Ceremony on the occasion of the International Day of Peace.  This event will take place in the Japanese Garden.

  • OPEC Monthly Report

  • International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) begins a series of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Forums featuring tech leaders, activists, and academics.  The purpose of the Forums is to educate senators on AI and the potential implications of its power.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Inflation (August), CPI (August), MBA Mortgage Market Indexes (September 8)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hong Kong will host the annual Belt and Road Summit.  Trade and foreign ministers from countries participating in the Belt and Road effort are expected to attend.  The event will also have a special Middle East Forum to discuss greater economic and trade opportunities.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q3), PPI (August)

  • South Korea Import & Export Prices (August), Unemployment (August)

  • Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen gives the 2023 State of the Union address in Strasbourg, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Industrial Production (July)

  • UK GDP (July), Goods Trade Balance (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Balance of Trade (July), Construction Output (July)

  • Poland Industrial Production (July), Balance of Trade (July), Current Account (July)

  • Romania Industrial Production (July), Inflation Rate (August), Current Account (July)

  • Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (July)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Production (August)

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Global

  • UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Cuba to attend the G77 + China meeting (he is expected to deliver remarks on Friday).  The purpose of the meeting is to bolster the voice of the Global South at the upcoming UN Assembly.  Interestingly, India’s foreign minister canceled his planned attendance at the summit, which some observers see as retaliation for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s last-minute decision to skip the G20 meetings hosted in India earlier this week.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Auto workers will go on strike in the US at midnight unless a new contract is agreed to between the Big Three Auto manufacturers and the United Auto Workers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Retail Sales (August), PPI (August), Initial Jobless Claims (September 9), Business Inventories (July),

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

  • Argentina Inflation (August)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • An IMF delegation will visit Sri Lanka through September 27 to assess the bankrupt island’s progress in implementing a $3 billion bailout deal that was agreed to earlier this year.  If the assessment is positive, the country would qualify for more funding.

  • Workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities in Australia will vote on whether to extend and escalate their strike in a bid to improve pay.

  • South Korean Railway Union workers are expected to go on strike for better wages.

  • Taipei Aerospace Defence Technology Exhibition and Taipei Aerospace Show begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Machinery Orders (July), Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July)

  • India WPI Inflation (August), WPI Food Index (August), WPI Fuel (August), WPI Manufacturing (August)

  • Australia Employment (August)

  • Singapore Unemployment (Q2)

  • Indonesia Car Sales (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will chair the fourth Budapest Demographic Summit through Sept. 16.

  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hosts Kosovar PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets in Frankfurt, Germany, to consider interest rate policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference afterward.

  • ECB Board Member Fernandez-Bollo chairs a panel entitled "Priorities for improving the EU bank crisis management framework for medium-sized banks" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel "Managing risks in the banking sector" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

  • Serbia CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (August), Inflation (August)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (September 8)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nigerian separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu will appeal to the Nigerian Supreme Court to release him from detention.  A year ago, a lower court cleared him of terrorism charges, but the Nigerian government appealed that decision.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Mining Production (July), Gold Production (July), SACCI Business Confidence (August)

  

Friday, September 15, 2023

Global

  • Rosh Hashana begins marking the Jewish New Year.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Import & Export Prices (August), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (September), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment ((September), Michigan Inflation Expectations (September), Michigan Current Conditions (September)

  • Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (July)

  • Brazil Retail Sales (July)

  • Colombia Retail Sales (July), Industrial Production (July)

  • Peru GDP (Q2), Unemployment (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • South Korea and the United States will hold their fourth round of extended deterrence talks in Seoul, South Korea.

  • The Milken Asia Summit begins in Singapore.  US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

  • India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), FX Reserves (September 8)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Eurogroup meets in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.  They are expected to discuss macroeconomic developments in the EU as well as the selection process of a new ECB Executive Board member.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference following the meeting.

  • The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers will hold informal meetings through September 16 in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo chairs a panel entitled "Bank diversity in Europe: consolidation and/or preservation?" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • Eurozone Budget Balance (August), Balance of Trade (August), Labor Cost Index (Q2), Wage Growth (Q2)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

  • France Inflation (August), Inflation (August), New Car Registrations (August)

  • Italy Inflation (August), CPI (August), Balance of Trade (July)

  • Poland Inflation (August)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

  • Hungary Construction (July), CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Greece Construction Output (Q2)

  • Bulgaria Inflation (August)

  • Serbia Building Permits (July)

  • Ukraine GDP (Q2)

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Inflation (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Botswana Inflation (August)

  • Nigeria Food Inflation (August), Inflation (August)

  • Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Germany begins the 188th Annual Oktoberfest in Munich.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Sunday, September 17, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe steps down as Governor and is succeeded by Michele Bullock.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

It’s Not Business All Time... Fly Fishing in Banff!

Lest our clients and blog readers think all we do is work here at Fulcrum Macro, we want to share some photos of our recent fly fishing adventures on the Bow River in Calgary and Banff. We fished the Lower Bow River for Rainbows and Brownies and, the next day, the Upper Bow River for Brownies.

While it was rainy and chilly on the Upper Bow, it was a grand adventure and incredible fun. My first fly fishing trip where I had to constantly watch out for bears when we occasionally fished from the shoreline!

At the Fairmont Banff Hotel.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

September 8 - 10, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

 

Indo Pacific

  • “India’s Strategic Evolution”  Center for Strategic and International Affairs “The Asia Chessboard” Podcast

    The podcast begins by examining India’s strategic outlook since the end of the Cold War, considering India’s history, the evolution of its economic model, and shifts in the political perspectives and priorities of the Indian government. The participants turn to India’s role in BRICS – examining the relationship between India and China within the organization, the reasoning behind India's participation in BRICS, and the implications of the August 2023 BRICS summit. Next, they discuss Delhi’s changing relationship with Taipei and expanding engagement with Japan and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future and how it would interact with the international world order. 

 

  • “US-led effort to diversify Indo-Pacific supply chains away from China runs counter to trends”  Peterson Institute for International Economics

    The global economy is threatened by the potential for another devastating pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a belligerent China, all of which have raised concerns about the resilience of worldwide supply chains. Hence, an important outcome of the US-initiated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) negotiations is a proposed supply chain agreement, the outlines of which were published by the US Department of State after negotiations were concluded in May in Jakarta. But diversifying the region’s supply chains—an objective repeated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during her Beijing visit in July—could prove elusive.

 

Africa

  • “African Energy Boom Sparks Power Grab in Senegal”  Real Clear World

    As Senegal stands on the cusp of an energy boom with its recent discovery of substantial oil and natural gas reserves, the nation faces a pivotal crossroads between economic prosperity and the risk of descending into autocracy. The energy boom's significance extends beyond Africa toward Europe’s ongoing struggle with Russian aggression, holding promise to help European nations reduce Russian oil and natural gas influence with a new supplier. This juncture also comes at a time when governments with strong Western ties across Africa are falling following a series of coups, amplifying concern for Senegal, a former French colony with strong Western ties dealing with its own growing instability. With the government’s ongoing enforcement of crackdowns and imprisonment of opposition members ahead of next year’s election, Senegal’s political institutions are in jeopardy.

 

  • “Africa’s ‘Coup Belt,’ Russia, and the Waning Global Order”  European Council on Foreign Relations

    Coups d’états have returned to Africa. In the 1990s and 2000s, the number of forced takeovers of power on the continent fell, but the figure began to creep back up around 15 years ago. This deterioration has come to particular prominence with the emergence of a ‘coup belt’ spanning from Sudan to Niger (and mostly recently Gabon), where eight coups have taken place in the last three years. The drivers behind coups range from state fragility to weak economic development. But such factors were also a constant in the decades immediately after the end of the Cold War – when Africa experienced fewer coups. The overlooked factor is the weakening of global order and the coup-enabling international environment it has created. Policymakers should consider, in particular, the role that activist ‘middle powers’ and Russia are now playing in taking advantage of an increasingly lawless international setting. 

 

Geo-Economics

  • “Elevating the Role of Critical Minerals for Development and Security”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

    Over the next few decades, the role that copper and critical minerals play in achieving the energy transition, spurring economic development, and strengthening national security will continue to grow. The world is slowly shifting its energy mix to one that is greener, but this transition will require significant mining resources. Mining and the processing of minerals are also crucial in maintaining the military’s technological edge, securing manufacturing supply chains, and pursuing sustainable development practices. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has designated 50 critical minerals “essential to the economic and national security of the U.S.,” and the Department of Defense (DOD) has identified more than 250 “strategic and critical materials,” defined as those “those that support military and essential civilian industry.” Yet, unlike some strategic allies, such as Canada, the United States does not consider copper to be a critical mineral (see Box 1 for more on these definitions).

 

  • “The Rise of the Walking Dead: Zombie Firms Around the World”  VoxEU/CEPR

    The rise in the number of unproductive and unviable (‘zombie’) firms worldwide does not bode well for future productivity growth. This column documents global trends in zombification over the last two decades by creating a new dataset of nonfinancial zombie firms, listed and private, for a large set of countries. Despite the widespread increased zombification, the results point to a silver lining: negative macro-financial spillovers from zombie firms to non-zombies can be mitigated by strengthening banks and improving insolvency frameworks.

 

  • “Living with High Public Debt”   Kansas City Fed/Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen

    Public debts have soared to unprecedented peacetime heights. These high debts pose economic, financial, and political challenges. Multilateral financial institutions and others have consequently laid out scenarios for bringing them back down. Our thesis in this paper is that high public debts are not going to decline significantly for the foreseeable future. Countries are going to have to live with this new reality as a semi-permanent state of affairs. These are not normative statements of what is desirable; they are positive statements of what is likely.  Financial liberalization, internal and external, is an economic fact of life. The genie is out of the bottle. All of which is to say that, for better or worse, high public debts are here to stay.

 

Russia/Ukraine

  • “Behind the Lines: Voting at Gunpoint in Russia’s Sham Elections”  Center for European Policy Analysis

    Russian occupation forces began conducting “elections” in some occupied regions on August 31 and will finish them on September 10.  The aim of the Kremlin is to boost voter participation to add credibility to the elections for local “legislative bodies” and “self-government bodies.”  The whole process, which is intended for domestic Russian and international audiences, seeks to show a vibrant political life and create the illusion that local residents have a say over their future. The reality is many are being forced to vote at gunpoint for pre-selected candidates.

 

Graphic of the Week

China’s  New “Standard Map” Offends and Outrages Multiple Countries

 Less than two weeks  before India hosts the G20 Leaders’ Summit (which Chinese President Xi Jinping is not attending), the Chinese government released its new “standard map.”  The map has China claiming ownership of vast territories that are actually controlled by India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan.  All these countries have strongly repudiated the map and its claims.   In India’s case, China claims power over the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as well as the Aksai Chin plateau, a disputed area in the Western Himalayas that is claimed by India but controlled by China.  All in all, the map serves to inflame regional tensions with China further but also shows Beijing’s willingness to challenge and anger its neighbors.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

September 11 - 16, 2023

Washington is fully back to work this coming week as the House of Representatives returns Tuesday from their August recess.  The big event of the week in Congress will be Tuesday’s testimony by SEC Chair Gary Gensler before the Senate Banking Committee.  We expect Republican senators to go hard at Gensler over a range of regulatory issues he has been pursuing, ranging from ESG regulations to regulation of private capital. 

 Chair Gensler will also participate in a conference reflecting on the 15th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse (was it that long ago?). 

Meanwhile, the  House Financial Services Committee is holding three hearings this week on Basel III implementation, oversight of foreign acquisitions of U.S. assets in the U.S., and the implications of the Federal Reserve developing a digital currency.

Also in the House of Representatives this week, the House Select Committee on Competition with China will hold a field hearing in New York on the potential risk China poses to the U.S. financial sector.  Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton is scheduled to be among those testifying.

Looking at events from last week, the Federal Reserve will now field a full complement of Governors as the U.S. Senate confirmed Phillip Jefferson as Vice Chair and Adriana Kugler to a Fed Governorship, making her the first Latino to serve on the Board.

Finally, the Treasury Department will hold the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) Conference 2023.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will make a keynote speech, and markets will listen closely for comments she may make about new regulations being developed on outbound U.S. investments to China.

Below is our listing of major regulatory events this week in Washington and elsewhere in the U.S. and Canada.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

 

U.S. House of Representatives

  • September 12 – 8:30 a.m.  at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York: The House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee holds a field hearing on "Systemic Risk: The Chinese Communist Party's Threat to U.S. Financial Stability."  Witnesses will include Jay Clayton, Former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jim Chanos, President and founder of Kynikos Associates, and Anne Stevenson-Yang, Founder of J Capital Research.

  • September 13 – 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Committee holds an oversight hearing  entitled “ Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) and Other Efforts to Strengthen National Security in the U.S.”

  •  

  • September 14 – 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy holds a hearing entitled “Implementing Basel III: What’s the Fed’s Endgame?”

  •  

  • September 14 – 2:00 p.m.: The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion holds a hearing entitled “Digital Dollar Dilemma: The Implications of a Central Bank Digital Currency and Private Sector Alternatives.”

 

 

US Federal & State Regulatory Meetings & Events

U.S. Treasury Department

  • September 14 – 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.: The U.S. Treasury will host the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) Conference 2023.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver a keynote address, and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Majorkas will deliver the closing keynote address.

U.S. Federal Reserve Board

  • Nothing significant to report; The Fed Board is in its quiet period in advance of the FMOC meeting on September 20.

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.

  

Securities and Exchange Commission

  • September 13 – 12:30 p.m.:  Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a virtual fireside chat at the 15th Anniversary Lehman Collapse Conference hosted by Better Markets.  The title of the chat is “A Market Regulator’s View of Too-Big-To-Fail.”

    • NOTE: SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Sept. 27th.

  

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

  • September 11 – 10:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m. PST: Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will give opening remarks on “Modernizing Investor Protection for the Digital Age” at the North American Securities Administrators Association 2023 Fall Annual Meeting.  The meeting will be held at the InterContinental San Diego Hotel in San Diego.

  • September 12 – 9:20 a.m. – 9:50 a.m. (Tokyo): Commissioner Caroline Pham will deliver a keynote speech titled “Digital Assets, Retail, Social Media & AI: What’s Next?” at the 13th Nasdaq Surveillance Conference in Tokyo, Japan.

 

Federal Trade Commission

  • September 14 – 11:00 a.m.: The Federal Trade Commission will hold an open meeting virtually.  The agenda includes:

    • Improper Listing of Patents in the Orange Book: The Commission will consider whether to issue a policy statement concerning the improper listing of patents in the Food and Drug Administration’s publication of Approved Drug Products With Therapeutic Equivalence Evaluations, commonly known as the “Orange Book.” The policy statement will discuss whether improper listing of patents in the Orange Book may increase the cost of and reduce access to essential prescription drugs, imposing costs on individuals and society alike. The policy statement also assesses whether the listing of patents in the Orange Book that do not comport with listing requirements may constitute an unfair method of competition.

    • Protecting Kids from Stealth Advertising in Digital Media: The Commission will vote on whether to release a staff perspective and recommendations on the blurring of advertising and content on digital media and how it affects kids, including teens. This staff perspective builds on an October 19, 2022 event that staff hosted to survey existing research, understand the potential harms to kids from blurred advertising, and discuss possible solutions.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

  • September 13 – 2:30 – 3:30 p.m.:  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will give a keynote speech entitled “Too-Big-To-Fail from a Financial Consumer’s Point of View” at the 15th Anniversary Lehman Collapse Conference hosted by Better Markets in Washington, D.C.

 

Farm Credit Administration

  • September 14 – 10:00 a.m.: The FCA Board holds its monthly board meeting in McLean, Virginia.

 

The North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA)

 

 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 

 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Speaking in Banff, British Columbia to the National Credit Union Management Association

Banff is one of the most beautiful places in the world and I had the honor to speak to the National Credit Union Management Association (NCUMA) this past week. A fantastic event with wonderful attendees. the NCUMA is a world-class organization and I’m very grateful they invited me to speak!

View from my room at the glorious Fairmont Banff Springs Hotel in Banff, British Colombia.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis’ Investor Symposium

It was an honor and great fun to speak at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis Investor Symposium in Detroit last week. The meeting brought together financial leaders who are driving economic growth and innovation in the region. Smart, creative, energetic. Thank you, FHLBI, for having me join you and for bringing me as a guest to the Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees game on a gorgeous Detroit evening!

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Recommended Weekend Reads

September 1 - 3, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a wonderful and very relaxing Labor Day weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Americas

  • “Mexico’s Microchip Advantage”  Foreign Affairs

    Since Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act one year ago, there has been much talk about how to shift electronics and computing supply chains away from China.  In addition to the rapid buildup of domestic manufacturing spurred by the CHIPS Act tax credits and incentives, the intensification of U.S.–China tension and the imposition of export controls are encouraging many multinational technology companies to relocate production outside of China.  The focus on diversification within Asia, however, has meant that Mexico – the U.S.’ top trading partner and arguably its most important manufacturing partner – is being largely overlooked.  Building regional capacity offers a way to limit Asia-focused supply risks, and in the event of a major U.S.–China conflict, an intra-hemispheric supply chain would be much less susceptible to interference.  Mexico would be the key place to start.

  

Africa

  • “Whose tune will an expanded BRICS dance to?”   Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)

    On the face of it, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was the big winner of the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg last week. Ramaphosa presided over a summit where the five BRICS leaders agreed to invite six new members to join the bloc: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Argentina. An expanded BRICS that now accounts for 36% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and 46% of the world’s population. But if the expansion was a success for Ramaphosa, it was arguably an even greater success for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who campaigned energetically for enlarging the alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India was apparently reluctant because he suspected this would increase Xi’s global power.  Modi is likely to be proven correct.


  • “The Niger Coup’s Outsized Global Impact”   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    This latest coup in West Africa is a major blow to Niger, the Sahel region, and West Africa as a whole. The junta has publicly accused France, which has some 1,500 troops in Niger, of trying to destabilize the country. The crisis has also been closely monitored in Washington, given the presence of U.S. military bases and political engagement in the landlocked country at the heart of the Sahel. While Niger’s economic and social indicators place it at the bottom of global development indices, these metrics also understate the country’s strategic importance of this vast country. Its geographical position at the crossroads of North, West, and Central Africa, its mineral and oil resources, its potential for the development of renewable energies, and its strong demographic growth help explain the seemingly outsize interest of medium and large powers in the current crisis. This report is an exploration of the major ways the crisis has rippled through the country, the region, and the world.

  

Indo-Pacific

 

  • “What Kind of World does Xi Jinping Want?”   Harvard Kennedy School

    When Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a “Joint Statement” with President Putin, claiming there would be “no limits” to the relationship, some wondered whether this heralded the creation of a new world order. The statement does reference the trend toward the “redistribution of power in the world.” So, what kind of a world does Xi want to see? Two major principles drive his view. First, security and sovereignty issues must all be aligned to ensure the continued rule of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, he insists that China be seen as at least an equal player in the world, making it a key participant in defining the rules of the road.

 

Political Economy

 

  • “Protests”  National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper

    Abstract: Citizens have long taken to the streets to demand change, expressing political views that may otherwise be suppressed. Protests have produced change at local, national, and international scales, including spectacular moments of political and social transformation. We document five new empirical patterns describing 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020. First, autocracies and weak democracies experienced a trend break in protests during the Arab Spring. Second, protest movements also rose in importance following the Arab Spring. Third, protest movements geographically diffuse over time, spiking to their peak before falling off. Fourth, a country’s year-to-year economic performance is not strongly correlated with protests; individual values are predictive of protest participation. Fifth, the US, China, and Russia are the most over-represented countries by their share of academic studies. We discuss each pattern’s connections to the existing literature and anticipate paths for future work.

 

  • “The FMOC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?”  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

    Using close to 40 years of textual data from FOMC transcripts and the Federal Reserve staff's Greenbook/Tealbook, we extend Romer and Romer (2008) to test if the FOMC adds information relative to its staff forecasts not via its own quantitative forecasts but via its words. We use methods from natural language processing to extract from both types of document text-based forecasts that capture attentiveness to and sentiment about the macroeconomy. We test whether these text-based forecasts provide value-added in explaining the distribution of outcomes for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation. We find that FOMC tales about macroeconomic risks do add value in the tails, especially for GDP growth and the unemployment rate. For inflation, we find value-added in both FOMC point forecasts and narrative once we extract from the text a broader set of measures of macroeconomic sentiment and risk attentiveness.

Chart of the Week

The End of the Temporary Student Loan Payment Reprieve:

So, Where Are You Going to Cut Your Spending to Pay Back Your Debt? 

In late June, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program.  On Friday, September 1st, student loans accruing interest will begin again, and borrowers will have to start making payments again in October. The Financial Times took a deep dive and asked: So, now that you have to start paying back your debt again, where are you planning to cut your spending? It looks like restaurants, grocery stores, and the travel industry are going to be the big losers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

September 4 - 8, 2023

Summer vacations are finished, the kids are back to school, and Washington is roaring back to life this week.  The Senate is back in session (the House comes back on September 11th).  There are a number of meetings and events of note this week.

But first, we would note that last week, the FDIC’s Board of Directors held an Open Meeting to consider five resolutions dealing with long-term debt requirements, new filings for institutions with $100 billion or more in total assets, and approval of new procedures for approving the resolution and sale of midsized and large banks.  You can read the FDIC’s full proposals and background memorandums HERE.

We are also watching the lawsuit brought by a consortium of hedge fund, private equity, and venture capital trade associations against the Securities and Exchange Commission for their newly adopted rule on regulating private funds.  Our friends at Capitol Account (there is a paywall, but as avid readers ourselves, we strongly encourage you to subscribe – it’s worth every penny) point out that Gene Scalia is the lead lawyer on the case.  And knowing Gene’s track record in court, previously bringing suits against the SEC and other regulators, our betting money is on the plaintiffs.

Below is our listing of major events in Washington this coming week.  It is going to get more and more busy in the coming weeks and months, and we hope we can help you keep on top of it all. Let us know if you have any questions.

 

U.S. Congressional Hearings

  • September 7, 2023, 10:00 a.m.:  The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on "Perspectives on Challenges in the Property Insurance Market and the Impact on Consumers."  The witnesses will be Douglas Heller, Director of Insurance at the Consumer Federation of America, and Jerry Theodorou, Policy Director for finance, insurance, and trade at the R Street Institute.  

  • The House of Representatives is out of session but returns to work on Tuesday, September 11th.  

 

US Regulatory Meetings & Events 

U.S. Treasury Department

  • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel with President Biden to New Delhi, India, to participate in the G20 Leaders’ Summit through September 10.

 

U.S. Federal Reserve Board

  • September 7, 2023 – 4:55 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman will participate in a panel entitled “The Future of Money and Consumer Protection” At the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Seventh Annual Fintech Conference, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

  • September 8, 2023 – 9:00 a.m.: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on payment innovations at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Seventh Annual Fintech Conference, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

  • Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.

 

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  • Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.

 

Securities and Exchange Commission

  • September 6, 2023 – 10:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold an open meeting to consider whether to adopt a proposed amendment to the National Market System Plan Governing the Consolidated Audit Trail (“CAT NMS Plan”) to implement a revised funding model (“Executed Share Model”) for the consolidated audit trail (“CAT”) and to establish a fee schedule for CAT fees for the self-regulatory organizations that are participants to the CAT NMS Plan in accordance with the Executed Share Model.

  • September 7, 2023, 2:00 p.m.: The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

     

  • NOTE: SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on September 12th.  He is also now scheduled also scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Sept. 27th.

 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

  • Friday, September 8, 2023 – 11:30 – 12:30 p.m., The Grand Hyatt, Nashville, TN: Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in a fireside chat at the National Association of Federal Equity Receivers Annual Conference.

 

Federal Trade Commission

Farm Credit Administration

  • Nothing of significance is scheduled for this coming week.

  

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events 

Think Tanks

  • September 6, 2023, 9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics,  9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.: Is limited liability the best regime for banks?

  • September 7, 2023, 9:00 a.m.:  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Capital Market Competitiveness holds a discussion on "European Union Corporate Disclosure Requirements” at the U.S. Chamber.  Speakers include Dalia Blass, Partner at Sullivan & Cromwell; Sonja Gibbs, Managing director and head of sustainable finance at the Institute of International Finance; Emmanuel Faber, Chair of the International Sustainability Standards Board; David Woodcock, Partner at Gibson Dunn; Peter Matheson, Managing director of international policy and advocacy at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Dan Crowley, Partner at K&L Gates.

  • September 7, 2023, 9:30 a.m.: The CATO Institute holds a conference entitled “Staying Ahead of the Curve: Crypto Regulation and Competitiveness.”  Speakers include:
    — 9:35 a.m.: Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) delivers remarks
    — 10:15 a.m.: Panel discussion on "Stablecoins, the Dollar and Regulation"
    — 11:45 a.m.: Panel discussion on "Crypto Regulatory Uncertainty and U.S. Competitiveness"
    — 2 p.m.: Panel discussion on "Regulating Open-Source Financial Technology"

 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

August 27 - September 3, 2023

This coming Friday is the first day of the meteorological autumn.  Goodbye, Summer, and welcome to what we expect will be a hectic fall.  

In the coming week, we are watching several significant geopolitical events - three of which deal with China. First, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo begins a four-day visit to Beijing to discuss trade issues – the sale of semiconductors being the paramount issue for China.  Second, while she is there, Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will meet his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. Cleverly will be the first UK Foreign Secretary to visit China in five years.  And third, on Friday, Dutch restrictions on the export of chip manufacturing equipment to China go into effect (The Netherlands is home to ASML, the world’s most valuable chip tool maker and a one-time major supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China).

Also in Europe this week, foreign and defense ministers from the Baltic States and Poland will meet to discuss the growing threat of Russian Wagner Group forces who have amassed in Belarus on the Polish border.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching closely the U.S. GDP employment figures and inflation indicators, giving them a sharper insight into the Federal Reserve’s possible thinking on future monetary tightening.

China will release PMIs this week in the face of growing economic headwinds.  And several important Eurozone CPIs will be out, including Germany’s. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visits Vietnam through August 29.  He will meet with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to discuss improving trade and security issues as well as witness the ground-breaking of several new industrial parks.  This marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations and the 10th year since they signed a strategic partnership.

  • North Korea is expected to launch a second spy satellite in the coming days after a previous effort - “Chollima-1” failed in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkey's opposition People's Democratic Party will hold its fourth annual grand congress in Ankara.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Monday, August 28, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Former President Donald Trump has a hearing before Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington, D.C., regarding the criminal charges brought against him for involvement in the January 6th insurrection.

  • Today is the 60th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr participates in the "Banking Services" roundtable discussion with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes Council in Pablo, Montana.

  • Brazil Bank Lending (July), BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Workers at a Chevron Wheatstone liquified natural gas facility in Australia will vote on whether to permit unions to strike.  The risk of a strike led to a spike in natural gas prices in Europe in the last few weeks, but now with a deal in sight, prices tumbled in the last few days.

  • Three Canadian naval ships will visit Yokosuka Port in Tokyo Bay to be refueled.  The visit is part of Canada’s strategy to increase the country’s role in maintaining security in greater Indo-China.

  • Japan will launch the moon lander for its "Moon Sniper" mission. They hope to land on a small crater close to the Moon’s equator on the side facing Earth.

  • Tropical storm Saola will hit maximum strength east of the Philippines and may be designated as a super typhoon.

  • Yamaguchi Natsuo, leader of Japan’s Komeito Party (which is the junior partner in the ruling coalition), meets Chinese officials in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (July)

  • Japan Coincident Index (June), Leading Economic Index (June)

  • Australia Retail Sales (July)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Officials from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will meet in Warsaw, Poland, to discuss the possibility of a complete border closure with Belarus.  In recent weeks, Wagner Group forces have increased their presence on the Polish border, leading to a Polish military build-up to counter any possible aggression.

  • Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will meet his Czech counterpart, Jan Lipavsky, in Prague.

  • The European Parliament returns to work in Brussels.  Multiple committee meetings are scheduled throughout the week.  Among the key issues they will focus on is a €50 billion initiative to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization from 2024 to 2027.

  • The Bled Strategic Forum will be held in Bled, Slovenia, through August 29.  Attendees will include leaders from Southern and Southwestern Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Loans to Households and Companies (July)

  • Ireland Retail Sales (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (July)

  • Qatar GDP (Q1)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr participates in the "Banking Services" roundtable discussion with the Blackfeet Business Council in Browning, Montana.

  • US S&P/Case Shiller Indexes (June), JOLTs Job Reports (July), Dallas Fed Services Index (August), Redbook (August 26)

  • Mexico GDP (Q2), Economic Activity (June)

  • Colombia Business Confidence (July)

  • El Salvador Current Account (Q2)

  • Uruguay Unemployment (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

  • France Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Spain Retail Sales (July)

  • Hungary GDP (Q2), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (July)

  • Turkey Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (July), Economic Confidence Index (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  

 

Wednesday, August 30, 2023 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US GDP (Q2), PCDE Prices (Q2),  MBA Mortgage Indexes (August 25), ADP Employment Change (August ()Goods Trade Balance (July), Corporate Profits (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (July)

  • Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August), PPI (July), Net Payrolls (July)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura will give a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Consumer Confidence (August)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (July)

  • Philippines PPI (July)

  • Australia Monthly CPI Indicator. (July), Building Permits (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the La Tomatina Festival in Buñol, Spain.  More than 20,000 people are expected to show up and throw tomatoes at each other.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone  Economic Sentiment (August), New Car Registrations (July)

  • Germany Inflation (August), Import Prices (July)

  • UK Mortgage Approvals (July), BoE Consumer Credit (July)

  • Italy Business Confidence/Consumer Confidence (August), Industrial Sales (June)

  • Spain Inflation (August), Business Confidence (August)

  • Ireland Inflation (August)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August), Economic Sentiment Index (August)

  • Bulgaria PPI (July), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Hungary Retail Sales

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (July), PPI (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Russia Business Confidence (August), Corporate Profits (June), Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  

 

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks virtually on creating an economy that works for all, and the role community colleges play in the nation's essential development of its people and workforce before the Bunker Hill Community College annual convocation in Boston, Massachusetts.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation hosted by Broward College in Davie, Florida.

  • US  Core PCE Price Index (July), Personal Income (July), Initial Jobless Claims (August 26), Challenger Job Cuts (August), Chicago PMI (August)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August), Current Account (Q2)

  • Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (July), Gross Debt to GDP (July), Unemployment (July)

  • Mexico Unemployment (July)

  • Chile Copper Production (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (August), Tax Revenue (August)

  • Colombia Cement Production (July), Unemployment (July)

  • Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesian military forces will team with US military forces to host “Super Garuda Shield,” a military drill in East Java that will run through mid-September.  20 other countries will participate, including Japan, Singapore, Australia, and the UK.

  • Pope Francis begins a visit to Mongolia through September 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August), NBS General PMI (August)

  • Bank of Japan Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura will give a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Gifu, Japan, Japan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Housing Starts (July)

  • India GDP (Q2)

  • South Korea Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Australia Private Sector Credit (July)

  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (July)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (July), Current Account ((July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (August)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey GDP (Q2), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (August 25)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Uganda Inflation (August)

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (August)

  • South Africa PPI (July), Balance of Trade (July)

 

 

Friday, September 1, 2023

Global

  • Albania assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

  • Today is the first day of the meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.  Goodbye, Summer.  We will miss you.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Singapore holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Japan Capital Spending (Q2)

  • India Government Budget Value (July), Infrastructure Output (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Business Confidence (August)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (August), Home Loans (July), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (August), Commodity Prices (August)

  • New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Indonesia Inflation (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Dutch export controls over semiconductor chip equipment to China go into effect.  ASML is headquartered in the Netherlands, the world’s most valuable chip tool maker.

  • NATO will conclude its “Agile Spirit 2023” exercises in Georgia.

  • The maiden flight of the Spanish-built Miura 1 rocket launched from Moguer, Spain.

  • France’s controversial pension reform comes into force.

  • In the UK, Aslef union members (train drivers) will go on strike for more pay.

  • Also, in the UK, the sale of fluorescent lightbulbs for household use is banned as of today.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • France Budget Balance (July), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August), New Car Registrations (July)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August), New Car Registrations (August)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August), GDP (Q2),  GNP (Q2), PPI (July)

  • Hungary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Balance of Trade (June), GDP (Q2), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Switzerland Inflation (August), CPI (August), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Total Vehicle Sales (August)

 

 

 

Saturday, September 2, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  •  

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The China International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing.  A large number of foreign tech companies are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, 20,000 RMT union members across 14 train companies go on strike for 24 hours over pay and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Cote D’Ivoire holds regional and municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Sunday, September 3, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  •  

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

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