Recommended Weekend Reading

May 12 - 14, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

·       “Insulate, Curtail, Compete: Sketching a U.S. Grand Strategy in Latin America and the Caribbean”   Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies

This comprehensive report looks at US strategy for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the face of massive investment and political engagement by China in the region. In sketching the outline of a U.S. grand strategy in Latin America and the Caribbean, this report provides a framework within which to answer critical questions that remain unanswered in U.S. policymaking circles: which level of Chinese engagement the United States should permit versus what it should seek to curtail, as well as the necessarily circumscribed areas where U.S. competition should be resource-backed, well thought out, and creatively messaged. The report offers three categories for thinking through the terms of engagement with China in Latin America and the Caribbean: insulation, curtailment, and competition.

·       “Rinse and Repeat: Iran accelerates its cyber influence operation worldwide” Microsoft on the Issues (Microsoft Blog)

In a recent posting by Microsoft looking at adversarial nation-state cyber activity, the company looks at Iran.  Microsoft has detected these efforts rapidly accelerating since June 2022.  They attributed 24 unique cyber-enabled influence operations to the Iranian government last year – including 17 from June to December – compared to just seven in 2021. Though Iran’s techniques may have changed, its targets have not. These operations remain focused on Israel, prominent Iranian opposition figures and groups, and Tehran’s Gulf state adversaries. More broadly speaking, Iran directed nearly a quarter (23%) of its cyber operations against Israel between October 2022 and March 2023, with the United States, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia also bearing the brunt of these efforts. You can access the full Microsoft Threat Intelligence Report HERE.

·       “The Untold Story of the Boldest Supply-Chian Hack Ever”  Wired

The attackers were in thousands of corporate and government networks. They might still be there now. When investigators finally cracked it, they were blown away by the hack’s complexity and extreme premeditation. Two years on, however, the picture they’ve assembled—or at least what they’ve shared publicly—is still incomplete. A full accounting of the campaign’s impact on federal systems and what was stolen has never been provided to the public or lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Here is a behind the scenes  look at the SolarWinds investigation.

·       “Pandemic labor force participation and net worth fluctuations” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

In this working paper by the Economic Research team at the St. Louis Fed, they note U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2% as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 percent below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This paper argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we show that changes in net worth caused by realized returns explain half of the drop in LFPR in the 2020-21 period and over 80% of "excess retirements'' during the same period.

Chart of the Week 

Young adults in the US are less likely than those in most of Europe to live in their parents’ home 

In a Pew Research Center survey released on May 3rd, only one-in-three US adults aged 18 to 34 live in their parent’s home (per U.S. Census Bureau data from 2021). 

In Europe, the numbers are quite different.  According to the survey, more than seven-in-ten adults in that age group live with their parents in the countries of Croatia (77%), Greece (73%), Portugal (72%), Serbia (71%), and Italy (71%).

On the other end of the spectrum, fewer than one-in-five young adults in the Scandinavian countries of Finland (18%), Sweden (17%), and Denmark (16%) live with their parents.

Overall, countries in southern and eastern Europe tend to have higher rates of young adults living in their parents’ homes than countries in northern and western Europe, a difference that may reflect both cultural factors, such as social norms and family ties, and structural factors, such as housing markets and welfare systems.

The Global Week Ahead

May 7-14, 2023

This week, markets will be watching Tuesday's meeting at the White House between President Biden and Congressional leaders for any breakthrough in the growing federal debt ceiling crisis.  The U.S. Treasury reported that the expected "X-Date" – the actual default date – has been moved up to June 1st.  However, according to Moody's, that date might slip a week to as far as June 8th.

This Thursday, G-7 finance ministers, central bankers, the heads of the World Bank and IMF, and the invited finance ministers of India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Singapore, gather in Japan to discuss financial system instability in the U.S. and Europe, debt problems in the developing world, and further support for Ukraine.

Elsewhere around the world this week, on Tuesday, Russia holds its annual Victory Parade marking the defeat of Nazi Germany.  But it is also seen as a venue where Russian President Vladimir Putin could reveal a more significant national mobilization in the War on Ukraine.  On Sunday, Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections.  Polls show the election is very close but leaning against the re-election of President Recep Erdogan – a loss that could see sweeping political and economic changes comes to the country.

On the global economic front, it is a reasonably quiet week for major economic reports.  Markets will be watching the Bank of England's monthly monetary policy committee meeting as the U.K. reports GDP figures.  They are expected to raise rates another quarter-point.  Also, this week, the U.S. reports CPI figures and the Michigan survey.  China and India report inflation figures and the Philippines and Malaysia report GDP.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will meet with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  Among the issues they are expected to discuss is “new areas of cooperation between New Delhi and the Gulf as well as the US and the rest of  Sullivan will also meet with senior officials from the UAE and India later in the week.

·       Chile holds its Constitutional Assembly election, choosing new members of the Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand begins early voting for general elections.

·       Taliban interim Foreign Minister Muttaqi is in Pakistan for three-way talks with Foreign Minister Zardari and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on the crisis in Afghanistan.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul, South Korea, through May 8.  This is a significant show of strengthening relations between the two nations following a breakthrough agreement several months ago on reparations around forced labor in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice President Han Zheng visits Portugal and the Netherlands after attending King Charles II’s coronation in London.

·       South Korean Prime Minister Han will meet his counterparts in Sweden, Austria, and Romania for discussions on bilateral cooperation, infrastructure, the defense industry, and security in the Korean Peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Arab League will host a meeting in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss further steps for Syria's potential reentry to the league, from which the country was suspended in 2011 because of its civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin will hold legislative elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, May 8, 2023 

Global

·       World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its May General Council Meetings today and tomorrow in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Today is Time of Remembrance and Reconciliation for Those Who Lost Their Lives during the Second World War, 8-9 May.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Syria (Chemical Weapons), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold consultations on the 1559 report (on the situation in Lebanon)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico's Supreme Court will release a ruling on the constitutionality of the first part of the government's "Plan B" electoral reform.

·       The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 13th annual China Business Conference through May 10th in Washington, DC.  A number of leading Biden Administration officials and members of Congress are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Wholesale Inventories (March), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Brazil Car Production (April), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese government will officially downgrade COVID-19 to a common infectious disease.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (April), Building Permits (March), Private House Approvals (March)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (April)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov in Moscow.  He will also attend the Russian Victory Parade on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  keynote speech followed by Q&A at the New Paradigm Workshop - Resetting the Economy after the Crises organized by Forum New Economy in Berlin. 

·       Germany Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Israel Business Confidence (April), FX Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko will appear in court where he faces criminal charges for defaming a former government official.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX reserves (April)

·       Tanzania inflation data (April)

·       Mauritius inflation data (April) 

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden hosts a meeting with the four leaders of Congress to discuss the looming debt ceiling “X-Date” – now estimated at June 1st.  Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Minority Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will discuss possible solutions to avoid a default on the national debt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a speech at the Economic Club of New York.

·       US Redbook (May 6th), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (May)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Inflation (April), Auto Production (April), Auto Exports (April)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       El Salvador Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), FX Reserves (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)

·       Australia’s Treasurer presents the annual federal budget, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May), Retail Sales (March)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Industrial Production (March)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia holds its Victory Day parade in Moscow, marking the day Nazi Germany was defeated.  It is expected President Vladimir Putin will use the event to rally the country to further commit to the war on Ukraine in the wake of the alleged Ukraine drone attack on the Kremlin last week.

·       In the UK, 1,400 security officers in the Unite union at Heathrow Airport begin a 48-hour strike in an ongoing dispute about pay. Separately, Unite members at GSK’s Ware factory begin a 49-hour walkout in a national pay dispute with the pharmaceutical company.

·       Guernsey celebrates Liberation Day, commemorating when the island was freed from German occupation in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a  policy panel at IMF event 'Europe's Balancing Act: Taming inflation without a recession' in Berlin. 

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Hessischer Kreis e. V. at: Goethe University in Frankfurt.

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Current Account (March), FX Reserves (April)

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April), Halifax House Price Index (April), BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov hosts Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and Syrian Foreign Minister Mekdad in Moscow for “quadripartite” talks on normalizing ties between Turkey and Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (March)

·       Israel Budget Balance (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Federal Responses to Recent Bank Failures."

·       The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy, chaired by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), may hold a hearing on the Federal Reserve’s role in overseeing Silicon Valley Bank before its failure.  Warren and Ranking Member Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) sent a letter to the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General asking him to testify on his findings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Inflation (April), CPI (April), Monthly Budget Statement (April), MBA Indexes (May 5th)s

·       Canada Building Permits (March)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Kahn is going to be indicted for his alleged involvement in the Toshakhana corruption case.  Protests are expected in major cities as a result.

·       India is bracing for protests over the Karnataka state assembly elections.  Polls show a neck-and-neck competition between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition Indian National Congress.

·       ASEAN holds its 42nd Summit in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia. The two-day summit will focus on regional growth as well as a stronger implementation of the five-point consensus on Myanmar (which has been largely seen as ineffective) and collective measures to reduce tensions around the South China Sea with China.

·       Micronesia celebrates Constitution Day, which was ratified in 1979.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan FX Reserves (April), Coincident Index (March), Leading Economic Index (March)

·       South Korea Current Account (March), Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s highest Military Authority, the Military Committee, will meet in person on 10 May 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the Military Committee, will preside over the meeting, which will be attended by the Allied Chiefs of Defense and their Invitee counterpart from Sweden.  They will discuss Russia’s War on Ukraine and NATO’s continued support for Ukraine.

·       EU member states' representatives will discuss a European Commission proposal for an 11th package of sanctions against Russia. 

·       In the UK, UK, the Public and Commercial Services union members working for HMRC in Glasgow and Newcastle over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms. This is the first of a series of walkouts that are set to continue into June.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation (April), CPI (April)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Inflation (April)

·       Ukraine Inflation (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Bulgaria Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Construction Output (March)

·       Russia FX Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (March), Industrial Production (March), Participation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema will be in Paris for meetings at the Paris Club on the country’s debt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana inflation data (April)

·       Rwanda inflation data (April) 

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet through Saturday in Niigata, Japan.  The main agenda items include Russia’s War on Ukraine and spillover effects on the global economy, climate change, and the state of the financial sector.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       OPEC releases its monthly report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Title 42, the US immigration policy allowing for the rapid expulsion to Mexico of illegal immigrants who cross the southern border, expires. US Homeland Security officials are expecting a new flood of migrants seeking to cross the border.

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may launch a presidential exploratory committee today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks on Financial Stability and Climate Change at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Banco de Espana, and IE University, Madrid, Spain

·       US PPI (April), Initial Jobless Claims (May 6th)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Emperor and Empress host the official Spring Garden Party at the Palace.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (April), PPI (April), Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Current Account (March), Bank Lending (April), Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Philippines GDP (Q1)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       An informal meeting of EU Chiefs of Defense will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a talk at the scientific advisory board of the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF) in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a panel at the 20th edition of cycle of dialogues organized by Diario Madrid Foundation and Cercle d'Economia in Barcelona.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona.

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (April), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, Vehicle Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Report, Current Account (March), FX Reserves (May 5th)

·       Egypt Inflation (April)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and African Continental Free Trade Area Secretary-General Wamkele Mene will speak at the Africa Debate investment conference in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South African mining output (march), Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Namibia inflation data (April)

·       Ghana Inflation (April)

Friday, May 12, 2023

Global

·       G-7 science and technology ministers to begin three-day meetings in Sendai, Japan.

·       G-7 education ministers to begin a four-day meeting in Toyama, Ishikawa, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will meet U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House. The meeting will focus on strengthening US-Spanish relations and the war in Ukraine. 

·       The 9th Annual Meeting of Heads of States of the Association of Caribbean States meets in Antigua, Guatemala. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor (and Vice Chair nominee) Governor Philip N. Jefferson participates on a panel on Monetary Policy Strategy at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford University, Stanford, California.

·       US Import Prices (April), Export Prices (April), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (May), WASDE Report

·       Brazil Inflation (April), Business Confidence (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       Canada New Motor Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation (April)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (march)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March), Unemployment (March), Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (April), New Yuan Loans (April), Outstanding Loan Growth (April), Total Social Financing (April), M2 Money Supply (April), Current Account (Q1)

·       India Inflation (April), FX Reserves (May 5th), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Stockholm to discuss the situation in Ukraine and EU-China relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Current Account (March)

·       UK GDP (March), Goods Trade Balance (March), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March), Construction Orders/Output (March), Business Investment (Q1)

·       France Inflation (April)

·       Spain CPI (April), Inflation (April)

·       Serbia Inflation (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)

·       Bulgaria Balance of Trade (March)

·       Russia Inflation (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Saturday, May 13, 2023 

Global

·       G-7 health ministers to begin two-day meetings in Nagasaki, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a Commencement Address at the Daniel “Chappie” James Arena, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, Alabama.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Zelensky meets German Chancellor Scholz and President Steinmeier in Berlin.

·       Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Billstrom and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell co-chair the EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Stockholm to strengthen the bloc’s partnership with the region.

·       In the UK, members of the RMT rail union resume strike action across 14 train operators after rejecting the latest offer from the Rail Delivery Group.

·       The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest, one of the world’s largest televised events, begins in Liverpool, England.  The official host this year is Ukraine, but Liverpool is hosting on their behalf due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, May 14, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       It is Mother’s Day in the US and Canada. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia holds general elections.  Early voting began on May 7th. There is a risk of political protests and instability.

·       India’s Punjab Province holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bremen state election is held in Germany.

·       Albania holds local elections.

·       Italy holds the first round of municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will hold presidential elections and parliamentary elections.  Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a tough reelection bid against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 5 - 7, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports we read in the last week.   We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

·       “The Rising Geopolitical Importance of Argentine Lithium” The National Interest Argentina’s mining exports hit a historic high of $3.86 billion, driven by robust lithium income. Indeed, lithium exports surged 234 percent from a year earlier, accounting for a fifth of all Argentine mining shipments. Whoever wins this year’s Argentinian elections will have a say in whether the federal state plays a larger role or if the country will maintain an investment regime that is open to foreign investment. Foreign governments are watching closely.

·       “The Strategic Repositioning of LNG: Implications for Key Trade Routes and Choke Points”  The French Institute for International Relations

2022 saw the climax so far of the weaponization of energy. The rupture between Russia and the West will have lasting and reverberating impacts on the geopolitics of commodity flows. Some shipping routes have already gained in traffic while others have declined, and as a result, the risks around chokepoints and the safety of navigation are fast-evolving. The share of exports from the OECD countries will continue to grow and have a stabilizing impact on the safety of shipping lanes. The post-war LNG trade pattern shifts will likely consolidate the Atlantic route between the U.S. and Europe as well as the North Sea Route for the bilateral Russia-China trade if icebreakers can be built while possibly reducing traffic via the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. Other geopolitical risks loom large, including a Taiwan blockade and U.S.-China systemic confrontation. Hormuz remains a flashpoint, even if the latest Saudi-Iran rapprochement, and China’s agenda to reduce any risk of blockage, ease regional tensions.

·       ‘Nasty battle’: States fight states for EV, battery plants” E&E News

The lucrative federal incentives in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act are playing a key role in luring automakers and others to open EV-related businesses in this country. Separately, states and municipalities are on a “megadeal spending spree,” offering up around $14 billion in subsidies to attract EV and battery plants, according to a study by Good Jobs First, a nonprofit watchdog critical of government economic development subsidies.  Electric vehicles are the new frontier in what has always been a fraught process — states competing to devise ever-enticing tax and subsidy packages to attract hot companies. State leaders are looking at EVs and related industries as key to future economic development, particularly as the auto industry moves away from gas-powered cars. They want the jobs and tax revenue. These initial projects might also be the seeds for future industry investment as other companies sprout up near those at the vanguard. But economic development subsidies can be a drain on state and local government coffers, leaving some critics to question whether they are worth the public investments.

·       “Friendshoring Critical Minerals: What Could the U.S. and Its Partners Produce?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Given existing reserves, it is possible for the United States and its key democratic partners to significantly friendshore the production of critical minerals. However, it would require an unprecedented buildout of the mining industry to achieve clean energy targets for 2030.

Chart of the Week 

Russia’s Arms Export Business Is Collapsing

From ForeignPolicy.com: “After cresting in the early 2010s, Russian arms exports have fallen to levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Wall Street Journal referred to Russia’s precipitous decline in arms exports as among “the casualties of Russia’s war in Ukraine.” 

But the timing doesn’t add up: According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia’s arms exports began falling in earnest in 2019, and were already down nearly 20 percent relative to 2011, the high-water mark for the Russian arms industry. That year, Russian arms exports nearly matched U.S. arms exports and were delivered to 35 different countries. Eleven years later, Russian arms exports had fallen by nearly 70 percent, with deliveries to just 12 countries.

If the war on Ukraine dealt the knockout blow to Russia’s arms exports, the industry had already been on the ropes for some time.”

My Informal SumZero Macro Talk

I was delighted to join with Manoj Ramnani, Chief Investment Officer of 93 East Capital, to discuss the ever-evolving landscape across global markets. We discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting, recent banking sector stress, geopolitical maneuvering in Europe, the Middle East, and APAC, and the upcoming U.S. election season.

CFA Society of Dallas-Fort Worth Lunch Presentation…

I was delighted and honored to have the chance to speak to the CFA Society of Dallas-Fort Worth this week. Thank you very much for having me. The many thoughtful, insightful questions and the opportunity to talk with folks afterward were truly rewarding for me. A number of folks have asked for my presentation. Here you go - thank you again for coming out to hear me, and I hope you find this useful.

J.P. Morgan IMF/World Bank Conference

I was honored and delighted to serve on a panel at J.P. Morgan’s recent IMF/World Bank Conference in Washington, DC. A truly star-studded panel, we covered a vast amount of issues in little over an hour ranging from the brewing debt ceiling battle to the future dominance of the US dollar to a variety of geopolitical issues of direct impact to the markets. Thank you, Joyce Chang, for inviting me!

Three Generations…

I have been a proud father for 31 years. And now I am a proud grandfather. Meet Brendan Francis Kelly, here with my son, Joseph. Brendan was born on April 26th. A third generation of Kelly men. I never would have dreamed of this day when I was young. I am a blessed man.

The Global Week Ahead

April 30 - May 7, 2023

This week, much of the world celebrates Labor Day on Monday – meaning many financial markets will be closed. But on Monday, President Joe Biden will host meetings with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to solidify further mutual defense agreements between the two nations in the face of growing tensions in the South China Sea with China.

In the Middle East, Israel’s Parliament is expected to again take up work this week on the highly controversial judicial reforms that have led to widespread demonstrations in the country.   In London on Saturday, King Charles III and the Queen Consort Camilla will be officially crowned King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth Realms.

The real action this week will be among central banks. The US Federal Reserve meets and will announce whether to raise rates again or hold on Wednesday. The European Central Bank will also reveal a similar decision on Thursday. But several other central banks worldwide – Australia, Turkey, Malaysia, and Brazil, to name a few – will also be announcing interest rate decisions.

Those announcements will come amongst a slew of inflation data and PMIs in the US, Europe, and Asia – a lot of data for markets to take in this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds a vote on several constitutional amendments, including extending the presidential term from five to seven years, adding that Uzbekistan officially known as a “legal, social and secular state” (adding the word “secular”), adding a living minimum wage, guaranteeing the rights of the disabled, and a number of other amendments.

·       Vietnam will mark its 48th National Reunification Day.

·       French Polynesia holds the 2nd round of Assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) begins a 48-hour walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s Knesset (Parliament) is expected to resume working on the controversial judicial reform legislation that has sparked widespread national protests. 

·       US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) travels to Israel. He will be leading a bipartisan delegation of 20 members of the House.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will also be visiting. McCarthy is expected to meet with Amir Ohana, the Speaker of the Knesset, and McCarthy will also address the Knesset. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Lending (March), M3 Money Supply (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mali will hold a constitutional referendum aimed at restoring democracy after a military takeover.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, May 1, 2023

 Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene an international meeting on Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar (1-2 May).  

·        Switzerland takes the chair of the UN Security Council from Russia for the month of May. The UN Security Council President for May, Ambassador H.E. Mrs. Pascale Christine Baeriswyl of Switzerland, who will brief reporters on the program of work for the month.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. will meet with President Biden at the White House. The goal of the meeting is to further cement the mutual commitment to the defense of the Philippines, particularly in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), ISM Manufacturing PMI (April), Construction Spending (April)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Marshall Islands Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       India S&YP Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (April), Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (April), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April), Commodity Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Labor Day is celebrated in most of Europe and is a public holiday.

·       French labor unions will hold nationwide demonstrations and strikes to protest the government's pensions reform during International Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, May 2, 2023 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (April 29th), JOLTS Report (March), Factory Orders (March),  Total Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (March), Business Confidence (April), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Argentina Tax receipts (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank holds its 56th annual Board of Governors meeting in Incheon, South Korea. They will meet through Friday and are expected to discuss a wide range of issues, from food security and climate change to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation (April), CPI (April), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), Inflation (April), Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will meet Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti in Brussels, Belgium. They are seeking to find a diplomatic solution to ongoing tensions between the two states over elections.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden will deliver a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for a new plant of Infineon Technologies AG in Dresden, Germany. Later, she will meet with the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, in Prague.

·       Finland's center-right National Coalition Party, the far-right Finns Party and two junior partners will begin formal negotiations to form a new government following elections on April 2nd.

·       In the UK, strikes are expected by the National Education Union, members of the Unite union who work at the GSK pharmaceutical company, by the workers at the Passport Office, and also ambulance drivers across the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a discussion on "Banking supervision in a new economy": with Enria with Luc Laeven, ECB Director General Research, at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       Eurozone Inflation (April), CPI (April),  HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April), M3 Money Supply (April), Loans to Households (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (March) HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (April), S&P/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), Inflation (April), CPI (April), PPI (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga will resume protests against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria PMI (April)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (April), Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Angola Gross Reserves (April)

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

·       US MBA Mortgage Data (April 28), ADP Employment Change (April), S&P Global Manufacturing & Composite & Services PMIs (April), ISM Services Data (April)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Constitution Memorial Day, a national holiday marking the new constitution brought into force after World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea FX Reserves (April)

·       India S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (April)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (April) Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (April),, Retail Sales (April) RBA Chart Pack

·       Malaysia Central Bank Decision on Interest Rates

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Employment and Social Affairs Ministers in Stockholm through May 4th.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is hosting the 14th Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, together with the presidency of this year’s COP28 climate conference in the United Arab Emirates.

·       German Finance Minister Christian Lindner will be speaking with Moritz Schularick, president-designate of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The topic will be “New business models for Germany” and will cover the future of globalization regarding commodity, sales, and financial markets; the division of tasks between the state and the private sector; and the role of political consulting. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in policy panel "Banking Supervision and the Role of Banks in a Future Banking System – Opportunities and Challenges Ahead" at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference 

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the closing speech at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference 

·       Eurozone Unemployment (March)

·       France Budget Balance (March)

·       Italy Unemployment (March)

·       Russia GDP (March), Unemployment (March), Business Confidence (April), Retail Sales (April), Real Wage Growth (February), Corporate Profits (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Auto Sales (April), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Inflation (April), PPI (April) CPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria will launch its first national census in 17 years. The current population now exceeds 200 million people and is on track to become the 3rd largest population in the world by 2050, according to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP (Q4)

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Global

·       The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (March), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1), Unit Labor Costs (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (April 29th)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Ivey PMI (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April), Unemployment (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) will meet in Brussels to discuss the reform of multilateral development banks as well as the global consequences of Russia’s war on Ukraine as well as the situation in Sudan.

·       The EU Health Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Stockholm to discuss crisis preparedness.

·       Local elections are to be held in more than 230 councils in the UK. The results will offer some insights into the strength of the Conservative Party.

·       Also in the UK, security officers at Heathrow Airport are expected to start a three-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Eurozone HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (April), PPI (March)

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Spain Unemployment (April)

·       UK New Car Sales (April), S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (April), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (March), BoE Consumer Credit (March),

·       Italy S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PMIs (April)

·       Kenya PMIs (April)

·       Zambia PMIs (April)

·       Ghana PMIs (April)

·       Mozambique PMIs (April)

·       Uganda PMIs (April)

Friday, May 5, 2023

Global

·       The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives the commencement address at Michigan State University in East Lansing, Michigan.

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (April), Unemployment Figures (April), Consumer Credit Change (March), Used Car Sales (April)

·       Canada Unemployment (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet in Goa, India. Among those attending will be Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari – the first such high-level visit from a senior official from Islamabad in almost ten years.

·       Cambodia will host the Southeast Asian Games through May 17th in Phnom Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       India FX Reserves (April 28th), Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth

·       Indonesia GDP (Q1)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy, Home Loans (March), Investment Lending for Homes (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events – Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at The State of the Union event organized by the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy. 

·       Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (April), Retail Sales (March)

·       Germany Factory Orders (March), HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       France Industrial Production (March), Non-farm Payrolls (Q1), HCOB Construction PMI (April), FX Reserves (April)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April), Retail Sales (March)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March), Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (April 28th)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the US, Berkshire Hathaway holds its annual shareholder’s meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, led by chair Warren Buffett.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla are formally crowned King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth Realms in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mauritius FX Reserves (April) 

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds its Constitutional Assembly election, choosing new members of the Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand is expected to hold general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reading

April 28 - 30, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports we read in the last week.  Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. We apologize for sending this out late – we’ve been too busy marveling at our first grandchild!  We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

·       “Frozen Frontiers: China’s Great Power Ambitions in the Polar Regions” Center for Strategic and International Studies

In this interactive report, CSIS scholars chronicle how China’s pursuit of great power status is drawing it to the frozen reaches of the world’s polar regions. In both the Arctic and Antarctic, China has undertaken ambitious expeditions and developed world-class research facilities. These investments have elevated China’s voice in polar affairs and afforded it an opportunity to shape the emerging geopolitical landscape.  Its growing physical footprint in the world’s most remote frontiers also serves to advance China’s broader strategic and military interests. 

·       “The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint” Foreign Policy Research Institute

Much has been reported on the Russian military’s use of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary army run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, in the War on Ukraine.  But beyond Ukraine, where and what does the Wagner Group do?  In this report, we see that Wagner is the Russian state’s backroom dealer in Africa. Prigozhin aggressively is found to cuts deals with African junta leaders promising counterterror assistance for access to resources.  And that has a direct impact on the global commodity markets, especially as the US and other nations seek to acquire rare earth minerals.

·       “On frontier of new ‘gold rush,’ quest for coveted EV metals yields misery” Washington Post

One of the poorest countries on Earth has become a crucial player in the world’s green-energy transition. Guinea, a West African nation of more than 13 million people, is home to the world’s biggest reserves of bauxite — a reddish-brown rock that is the main source of aluminum. That lightweight metal, in turn, is essential for electric vehicles because it allows them to travel farther without recharging than if they were made of steel.  And over the current decade, when experts expect global sales of EVs to increase almost ninefold, demand for aluminum will jump nearly 40 percent to 119 million tons annually, industry analysts say. But the people of Guinea are paying a steep price as the natural habitat is being destroyed, farmland is made useless, and the locals are getting little to no compensation.

·       “Venezuela: Remittances as a Source of Foreign Exchange and Economic Survival” The Inter-American Dialogue

The Migration, Remittances, and Development Program’s Remittance Industry Observatory (RIO) features new data on remittances in Venezuela. The data release underscores the increasing importance of remittances to the country in the context of increased emigration and political instability. Remittances reached US$4.2 billion in 2022 and are now received by an estimated 29 percent of Venezuelan households. Despite the volume, remittances are almost entirely transmitted through unlicensed providers, and a disproportionate amount originates from the US.

Chart of the Week 

Russia’s Backdoor Supply of Oil to Europe 

Bloomberg reported this week on how India has become a top supplier of fuel to Europe.  But India does not drill for oil so where it is coming from?  Russia.  India has been snapping up cheap Russian crude – for as much as a 40 percent discount – and is now shipping it to Europe for a marketup.  

The Global Week Ahead

April 23 - 30, 2023

It will be a momentous week in the US this week as President Joe Biden is expected to announce his intention to run for re-election via a video on Tuesday and later in the week as the House of Representatives will hold a vote on a Republican debt ceiling package.  While the debt ceiling package is likely to pass in the House by the slimmest of margins, it will almost certainly fail in the Senate – but many observers see the vote as at least jump-starting the debt ceiling negotiations.

Looking globally, we will closely watch a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday.  While Russia’s war on Ukraine will be the primary issue of discussion, the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) will be a significant focus.  On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would withdraw from the program if the G-7 continues moving toward an outright ban on exports to Russia.  See this European Commission briefing to understand how vital the BSGI is to global commodity prices and feeding large areas of Africa and the Middle East.

Looking at global economics this week, we will be watching the US Q1 GDP report coming out Thursday.  In the EU, Q1 GDP figures for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy, and Spain will be released Friday. Also, on Friday, ae the Bank of Japan will decide interest rates under new BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 23, 2023:

Global

·       Japan hosts the G-7 Labor and Agriculture ministers. They are expected to discuss labor market policies in a post-COVID era as well as digital transformation/green transformation and the investment in human capital.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo is scheduled to hold municipal elections in northern municipalities that are predominately Serbian. Serbia opposes the elections, and the Belgrade-backed Kosovo Serb Party (Srpska Lista) has called for a boycott. The elections were originally scheduled for December 18, 2022, but were delayed after a series of violent incidents and pressure from the international community, including the EU.

·       In the UK, all UK phones are scheduled to receive a test emergency alert at 3 p.m. The system is planned to be used to issue warnings about life-threatening events such as floods and wildfires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Monday, April 24, 2023:

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres meets in New York with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Among the issues they are expected to discuss is the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), along with Russia’s war on Ukraine. On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened that if the G-7 moves to a near-total ban on exports to Russia, Russia will terminate the BSGI, a move that could trigger a global food security event. Additionally, Russia is chairing the UN Security Council this month, and Lavrov will personally chair the meeting held today (see next item).

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Effective multilateralism through the defense of the principles of the UN Charter. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

·       TIME Magazine will host the TIME CO2 Earth Awards Gala in New York. . The inaugural TIME CO2 Earth Award recipients are António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations; Mark Ruffalo, actor, director, producer, Co-Founder, The Solutions Project and Gloria Walton, President & CEO, The Solutions Project; Lisa P. Jackson, Vice President of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Apple; and Vanessa Nakate, climate activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s Supreme Court is excepted to hear testimony from former President Jair Bolsonaro over the failed January coup attempt after the election of current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula).  

·       The US Congress is in session this week.

·       The British Virgin Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Canada New Housing (March)

·       Brazil Current Account (March), FDI (March), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Inflation (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore CPI (March), Inflation (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belgium will host the North Sea Summit in Ostend. Leaders from Belgium, Denmark, German, and the Netherlands will meet. Also invited are the leaders of France, the UK, Ireland, and Norway and EU President Ursula von der Leyen. They will talk about energy challenges in the North Sea and ways to improve the transmission of electricity.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet in Ostend, Belgium, with Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss the implementation of the EU action plan on the geopolitical consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It can be watched live HERE.

·       In London, the UK Court of Appeal will hold hearings through April 27 on legal challenges to the UK Government’s Rwanda asylum plan.

·       Armenia observes Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion at an event entitled “Integration, multilateralism, and sovereignty: building a Europe fit for new global dynamics - How should Europe position itself in a world that is increasingly fragmented and polarized?” organized by Bruegel in Brussels. 

·       ECB Board Member/Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB Andrea Enria Andrea Enria participates in an MNI Connect roundtable event via webcast. 

·       Later in the afternoon, ECB Board Member Panetta will give an introductory statement at the Hearing on the Digital Euro at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April), Ifo Current Conditions (April), Ifo Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April) Capacity Utilization (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, April 25, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will again chair the Council meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden is expected to announce his re-election campaign today with the release of a video.

·       The Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration and Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) are going to speak at the Bipartisan Policy Center on the future of Social Security at an event entitled “Can We Fix Social Security?” The Congressional Budget Office recently reported the program will go bankrupt by 2032 and Medicare by 2033, requiring more than $4 trillion of new funding to keep them solvent.

· India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will pay an official visit to Colombia.  This is part of a series of multinational meetings Jaishankar is holding in the region. He visited Guyana between April 21-23, Panama from April 24 through April 25, Colombia through the 27th, and will finish with meetings in the Dominican Republic from April 27 through April 29.   Subrahmanyam is accompanied by a large delegation of Indian business leaders as India seeks to expand trade relations with these nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (April 22), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (February), New Home Sales (March), Building Permits (March),  CB Consumer Confidence (April), Richmond Fed Services Index/Manufacturing Index/Manufacturing Shipping Index (April), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April),

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April), Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will visit Japan through April 28. The two nations are working on a mutual defense strategy as the two nations are preparing to upgrade their relationship to a “strategic partnership.” Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio highlighted the relationship as part of his administration’s “New Plan

·       North Korea celebrates the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Army.

• Australia and New Zealand commemorate Anzac Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP (Q1)

·       Singapore Inflation (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg. They will discuss farming and forestry aspects of the carbon removals regulation, opportunities provided by the bioeconomy, the state of play of national strategic plans under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine. Other items on the agenda include information from the Commission about biological control agents. The briefing document for the meeting can be found HERE.

• Italy celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Nazi forces retreated from Italy. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent will give a speech in London at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on “Monetary Policy: Prices versus Quantities.”

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (March), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q2)

·       Spain PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Independence Day (Yom HaAtzmaut), which marks the day David ben Gurion read the Proclamation of the Establishment of the State of Israel on May 14, 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Wednesday, April 26, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will meet with President Joe Biden. He will also address a joint session of Congress to commemorate the 70th anniversary of US-South Korean relations. It is expected President Biden will encourage the South Korean President to agree to export weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

·       The University of California-Berkeley School of Law will hold the Berkeley Spring Forum on M&A and the Boardroom.  Of note, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn will speak on antitrust policy.

·       Reuters will host a forum on “The Future of US Offshore Wind Expansion: What Comes Next?” The  Department of Energy’s Head of US Offshore Wind Programs will speak and may give an indication of reported new offshore wind projects in Oregon, Main, and the Great Lakes. However, the US Defense Department is pushing to declare all possible development areas from Delaware to North Carolina as off-limits for additional wind projects as they will impede military operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Index (April), Durable Goods Orders (March), Wholesale Inventories (March), Retail Inventories (March), Goods Trade Balance (March)

·       Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations, Manufacturing Sales (March)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (March), IPCA CPI (April), Net Payrolls (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Argentina Inflation (Q1), CPIs (Q1)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government will host a Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Rome.  Representatives of the Ukrainian government, the EU, and numerous international financial institutions will participate.

·       NATO commences “Noble Jump II” exercises in Sardinia, Italy, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member/Chair of the Supervisory Board Andrea Enria gives introductory remarks at the Supervisory reporting conference at the ECB, Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Keerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel session entitled “Sustainability risk in the banking sector” at the Eurofi High-Level Seminar 2023 in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos  Luis de Guindo participates in a panel discussion at Delphi Economic Forum VIII in Delphi, Greece.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives concluding remarks at the Supervisory reporting conference at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum is held in Delphi, Greece, through April 29.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April), Unemployment Figures (March)

·       UK Labor Productivity (Q4), CBI Distributive Trade (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Thursday, April 27, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis travels to Israel to give a keynote address at the “Celebrate the Faces of Israel” event in Jerusalem.   This is part of a global international trade mission DeSantis is conducting this week and next week. The mission is also seen as an important elevation of his foreign policy views as he prepares for a likely US presidential campaign. DeSantis is scheduled to travel to Japan, where he will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimisa Hayashi, and a number of Japanese business executives..  He will then travel to South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and South Korean business executives. After his trip to Israel, DeSantis will go to the UK for meetings with Foreign Minister James Cleverly and a number of leading UK business executives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US GDP (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (April 22), Real Consumer Spending (Q1), Core CPE Prices (Q1), Pending Home Sales (March), Kansas Fed. Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (April)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April), Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 6th Digital China Summit will be held in Fuzhou today and Friday. Co-hosted by the Chinese Cyberspace Administration and several other government agencies, it will focus on data security, the digital economy, and the digital yuan. It is expected to also focus on the development of 6G and quantum communications to overcome US tech sanctions, per a call from the government to focus on these issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (March)

·       Japan Leading Economic Index (February), Coincident Index (February)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Import & Export Prices (Q1)

·       Indonesia FDI (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) will shut down the COVID-19 app.

·       Also in the UK, teachers in the National Education Union in England and Wales are set to stage another walkout in their dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a presentation on the digital euro at the European Association of Co-operative Banks (EACB) board meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (April), Industrial Sentiment (April), Selling Price Expectations (April), Services Sentiment (April), Consumer Confidence (April), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Spain Unemployment (Q1), Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy Consumer Confidence (April), Business Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct a fuel loading ceremony at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend virtually.  The plant was built by Russia’s Rosatom.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing Rate (April), Overnight Lending Rate (April), FX Reserves (April 21), Economic Confidence Index (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Sierra Leone celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it declared independence from the UK in 1961.

·       Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when Togo declared independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Friday, April 28, 2023:

Global

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core PCE Price Index (March), Personal Income (March), Employment Cost Index (Q1), Chicago PMI (April), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April), Michigan Consumer Expectations (April), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (April), Michigan Current Conditions (April), Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Canada GDP (February), Budget Balance (February)

·       Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (March), Gross Debt to GDP (March), Unemployment (March), IBC-BR Economic Activity (February), PPI (March), Federal Tax Revenues (March)

·       Mexico GDP (Q1) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision (this will be the first monetary policy meeting under the new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda), Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report, Unemployment (March), Tokyo CPIs (April), Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Housing Starts (March), Construction Orders (March)

·       India Government Budget Value (March), FX Reserves (April 21), Infrastructure Rate (March)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q1), Bank Lending (March), Unemployment Rate (Q1), Import Prices (March), Business Confidence (Q1), Export Prices (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Australia Housing Credit (March), PPI (Q1), Private Sector Credit (March), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (the EU finance ministers) will meet in Stockholm to discuss banking union and banking sector developments and hold a debrief on the IMF spring meetings and preparations for the G7 meeting in May. ECB Chair Christine Lagarde will participate in a press conference after the meeting.

Pope Francis begins a three-day visit to Hungary.

·       An information meeting of the EU Economy and Finance Ministers along with EU Central Bank Governors (ECOFIN) will be held in Stockholm. They will discuss planning for the reconstruction of Ukraine and coordination of support among nations as well as long-term perspectives on sustainable public finance.

·       In the UK,  Civil servants who are members of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union will strike over pay and working conditions. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone GDP (Q1)

·       Germany GDP (Q1), Inflation (April), Import Prices (March), Unemployment (April)

·       France GDP (Q1), Inflation (April), PPI (March)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

·       Spain Inflation (April), GDP (Q1), Current Account (February)

·       Italy GDP (Q1) Industrial Sales (February), Industrial Sales (February)

·       Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Tourism Revenues (Q1), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Tourist Arrivals (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (March), Private Sector Credit (March), M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 29, 2023:

Global

·       The G-7 Digital and Tech Ministers meet in Gunma, Japan, today and tomorrow. The focus of the meeting is expected to be the safe use of artificial intelligence. Current policies in this area vary from country to country, which makes it difficult for companies with cross-border operations to adopt the technology. Japan will suggest that when countries introduce regulations, they should consider the characteristics of each AI product and the situations in which it will be used.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Hasina will meet with World Bank President David Malpass and other senior World Bank officials and sign an expected $2.5 billion loan agreement.

·       Niue holds parliamentary elections (Niue is a coral atoll situation in the middle of the South Pacific within the triangle boundary of Tonga, Samoan, and Cook Islands).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·    NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, April 30, 2023:

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds a vote on several constitutional amendments, including extending the presidential term from five to seven years, adding that Uzbekistan officially known as a “legal, social and secular state” (adding the word “secular”), adding a living minimum wage, guaranteeing the rights of the disabled, and a number of other amendments.

·       French Polynesia holds the 2nd round of Assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) begins a 48-hour walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) travels to Israel. He will be leading a bipartisan delegation of 20 members of the House.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will also be visiting.  McCarthy is expected to meet with Amir Ohana, the Speaker of the Knesset, and McCarthy will also address the Knesset. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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