Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 3/12/23 Francis Kelly 3/12/23

The Global Week Ahead

March 12 - 19, 2023

This week, Washington will be buzzing about the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) moves to seize Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and the decision to make all depositors whole. Key members of Congress were briefed on Friday and Saturday. We understand regulators met around the clock this weekend to set up a new lending facility for any bank currently stressed with a one-year term compared with 90 days at the discount window. There remain a lot of questions at the time of this writing as to how many banks will likely take part in the program.

On the geopolitical front, President Biden will host a meeting of the AUKUS in San Diego, California. The AUKUS Pact is the joint defense group consisting of the US, UK, and Australia established to counter Chinese military advancements in the Indo-Pacific. The big news likely to come out of the meeting is President Biden is expected to announce the US will sell nuclear submarines to Australia.

Also, this week, the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire on Saturday. Initially negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, it allows the free flow of grain and fertilizers out of the Black Sea and to markets globally – particularly to Africa and the Middle East, which are the primary buyers. If an extension is not granted, global markets will likely see a significant spike in food prices, and global food security issues will be considerably raised.

On the global economic agenda this week, the European Central Bank will meet and likely raise rates again. US CPI will be reported, while the Bank of Japan will release minutes from last week's meeting.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, March 12, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Daylights Savings begins in the United States, advancing the clock one hour. We hate this day.

· The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will visit Iran for talks with President Ebrahim Raisi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cameroon holds Senate elections.

· Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, gaining its independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 13, 2023:

Global

· UN and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is scheduled to expire on Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Joe Biden hosts British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Tony Albanese in San Diego, California, to unveil new details of the 2021 AUKUS pact created 18 months ago in part to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. A deal will likely be announced where the US will sell Australia nuclear submarines.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

· Mexico Industrial Production (January)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

· Paraguay GDP (Q4), Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s National People’s Congress concludes with President Xi Jinping officially starting his third term. Also, China’s new Premier, Li Qiang, is expected to meet the press at the end of the Congress along with other top officials.

· Japan will ease COVID guidelines on mask-wearing and allow individuals to decide when to wars masks.

· The joint Freedom Shield military exercise between the United States and South Korea will commence in South Korea and last through March 23rd. It is the first US-South Korean in five years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q1)

· India Inflation (February)

· South Korea Export Prices/Import Prices (February)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (March0, NAB Business Confidence (February)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet to discuss macroeconomic and fiscal developments and fiscal policy guidance for 2023 and 2024. They will also discuss preparations for the Spring World Bank/IMF meetings in Washington, DC. ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council will meet through March 14th. They will discuss the impact of the Ukraine War on labor markets, the regulation of fees to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and the EU’s global health strategy.

· In the UK, Commonwealth Day is celebrated, celebrating the Commonwealth of Nations.

· Scotland’s Scottish National Party leadership ballot is held.

· In the UK, junior doctors will begin a three-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Current Account (January), Retail Sales (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 14, 2023:

Global

· OPEC Monthly Meeting

· The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), is organizing the Arab Forum for Sustainable Development 2023 in Beirut, Lebanon, which will be held through March 16th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Ethiopia and Niger.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “The Innovation Imperative: Modernizing the US Banking System” at the Independent Community Bankers Association’s Conference.

· US Inflation ((February), CPI (February), Redbook (March 11th), NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)

· Uruguay Unemployment (January)

· Argentina Inflation (February)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

· Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (February)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), WPI Inflation (February), WPI Food Index (February), WPI Manufacturing (February)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q4)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets to discuss the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the economic and financial impacts of the Ukraine War, and the EU budget. ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate.

· In the UK, today is the start of the four-day Cheltenham Festival, one of the biggest meetings in the British National Hunt horseracing calendar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· UK Unemployment (January)

· Spain CPI (February), Inflation (February)

· Italy Industrial Production (January)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

· Ukraine GDP (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Auto Production (February)

· Qatar Inflation (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (January), Mining Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)

Wednesday, March 15, 2023:

Global

· IEA Oil Market Report

· the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East and the 2140 Committee. The briefing will be followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen) and the 2140 Committee.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with the African Union leadership in Addis Ababa.

· US Director of the Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young will testify before the Senate Budget Committee on President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US PPI (February), Retail Sales (February), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (March), Business Inventories (January), NAHB Housing Market Index (March), Retail Inventories (January), MBA Mortgage Market Index (March 10th)

· Colombia Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Peru GDP (January), Unemployment (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds a tripartite meeting with representatives of business and labor unions to coincide with the announcement by large corporations of pay raises starting in April.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (January & February), Retail Sales (January & February), Unemployment (February)

· Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

· Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)

· Sri Lanka GDP (Q4), Manufacturing PMI& Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presents the budget to Parliament.

· Also, in the UK, a large number of strikes are scheduled. London Underground drivers are expected to go on strike. Also, UK teachers in England and Wales are expected to go on strike as well as BBC local radio journalists. Additionally, more than 100,000 civil servants in the Public and Commercial Services Union are going to stage a walk-out.

· Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

· In the Netherlands, provincial elections are to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (February)

· France Inflation (February)

· UK Spring Budget 2023

· Poland Inflation (February), Industrial Production (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation (February), Wholesale Prices (February)

· Turkey Budget Balance (February)

· Israel Inflation (February), M1 Money Supply (February)

· Jordan Inflation (February)

· Oman total Credit (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (February)

· South Africa Retail Sales (January)

Thursday, March 16, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), which will be followed by consultations on the 1701 report. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Security sector reform.

· the UN United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is expected to publish its first Global Report on Cocaine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Niger’s President Mohammed Bazoum and Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massaoudou in Niamey, Niger.

· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Finance Committee on President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal.

· The Inter-American Development Bank board of directors will hold their annual meeting in Panama City, Panama.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Initial Jobless Claims (March 11th), Export Prices/Import Prices (February), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (March), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (March), Philadelphia Fed Employment (March), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (March), Import Prices/Export Prices (February), Building Permits (February), Housing Starts (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean Prime Minister Yoon Suk Yeol will visit Japan through March 17th. It is the first time a South Korean Prime Minister has visited Japan in twelve years and comes after a breakthrough plan to resolve a long-standing dispute over forced labor in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (February)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), Machinery Orders (January), Industrial Production (January)

· Hong Kong Unemployment (February)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March), Unemployment (February), Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin

· Indonesia Loan Growth (February), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (March), Deposit Facility Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Environmental Council meets to discuss the industrial emissions directive, a proposal to set up an EU certification framework for carbon removal, and packaging and packaging waste policy.

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. The group is composed of the leading oligarchs, and the last time Putin met with them was the day he announced the invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022).

· Czech president Petr Pavel meets his Polish counterpart in a two-day state visit to the neighboring EU nation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & ECB Press Conference

· Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate, Marginal Lending Rate

· Italy Inflation (February), CPI (February)

· Poland Balance of Trade (January), Inflation (January & February), Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey FX Reserves (March 10th)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (January)

Friday, March 17, 2023:

Global

· The OECD interim economic outlook report on the global economy will be released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will testify before the House Ways & Means Committee on President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal.

· St. Patrick’s Day is celebrated in the US (and in Ireland, too, of course).

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Industrial Production (February), Manufacturing Production (January), Capacity Utilization (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March), Michigan Current Conditions (March), CB Leading Index (February)

· Canada PPI (February), Raw Materials Prices (February)

· Brazil Unemployment (January), IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)

· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (January), ISE Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

· India FX Reserves (March 10th)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February), Balance of Trade (February)

· Philippines Budget Balance (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK Liberal Democrat Party holds its spring conference in York.

· Today is the 9th anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s signing of the decree “recognizing the autonomous Ukrainian region of Crimea.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Inflation (February), CPI (February), Labor Cost Index (Q4), Wage Growth (Q4)

· Italy Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

· Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1)

Saturday, March 18, 2023:

Global

· The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a temporary, 120-day deal allowing grain and fertilizers from Ukraine and Russia to be shipped via the Black Sea, expires. If it is not renewed, it will pose an immediate global food security threat.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Japan with a delegation of German ministers for the so-called intergovernmental consultative framework. They will discuss bilateral cooperation on economic security and trade.

· In Portugal, tens of thousands of workers are expected to protest in Lisbon as part of a protest organized by the country’s largest workers’ union CGTP to demand higher wages.

· In the UK, barge workers who are members of the Unite union will go on strike for better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 19, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, India. They will discuss the G20 Summit, which India is chairing this year, as well as the Ukraine War.

· Kazakhstan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Montenegro holds presidential elections.

· In the UK, it is Mother’s Day.

· France commemorates victims of the Algerian War of 1954-1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

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Francis Kelly 3/10/23 Francis Kelly 3/10/23

The Global Week Ahead

March 5 - 12, 2023

Events in China will be center stage this week. China’s People’s National Congress, composed of more than 5,000 Party members, will officially confirm President Xi Jinping as President and also select a new Premier. Additionally, the Party will ratify a series of institutional reforms.

EU President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Canada early in the week to discuss Canada’s ability to supply the EU with critical minerals. She will then travel to Washington, DC, to meet with President Biden. They will discuss Ukraine and the ongoing tensions between the US and EU over the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on the EU’s electric vehicle industry.

Also, this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. IAEA Secretary-General Raphael Grossi held unexpected meetings with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on Friday in an effort to persuade Iran to reverse course on rapidly developing a nuclear weapons program.

Markets will also be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony before Congress this week. The US jobs report will also be front and center later this week.

Japan’s Central Bank will also meet this week to consider interest rate increases. It will be the last meeting of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda before stepping down. We expect the Japanese Diet (Parliament) to confirm Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda and two new Deputy Governors, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, March 5, 2023:

Global

· The Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC5) begins in Doha, Qatar. The conference will run through March 9th. UN Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver the opening speech.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean National Security Director Kim Sung-Han will travel to Washington, D.C., to discuss bilateral cooperation with North Korea, as well as economic and regional security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German cabinet will meet today and tomorrow at the Meseberg Castle to try to hammer out a number of issues causing friction between the coalition members. These include finding areas where the government can save money and reinstate the so-called “debt brake,” which limits the amount of money German states can spend and earn. The debt brake was suspended during COVID.

· Estonia holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is the 70th anniversary of Joseph Stalin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia’s opposition party, the National Salvation Front, and the Tunisian General Labor Union are expected to protest against the rule of President Kais Saied in defiance of local governmental decisions to deny permits to protest.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 6, 2023:

Global

· The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds a General Council meeting (the highest-level decision-making body) through March 7th.

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna, Austria. It is expected they will discuss IAEA’s Director-General Rafael Grossi’s meeting last week, with the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran, Iran. IAEA) has confirmed that traces of highly enriched uranium particles, up to 84 percent, were recently found in Iran. This is the closest Iran has gotten to reaching the 90 percent threshold required for weapons-grade nuclear fuel.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and Head of UNMISS, Nicholas Haysom, will brief reporters at the Security Council Stakeout after the Security Council meeting on South Sudan. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The UNESCO - EU H2020 LimnoPlast Conference - Diving into Freshwater Microplastic Pollution - connecting Water, Environmental and Social Sciences begins in Paris, France, and will continue until March 8th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate and the US House of Representatives are in session this week.

· US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat with the Council of Institutional Investors in Washington, D.C.

· Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will speak on crypto at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Conference in Washington, D.C., also speaking will be FDIC Chair, Martin Gruenberg.

· The CERAWeek Conference is held in Houston, Texas. It is one of the largest energy conferences in the world and will feature energy ministers, CEOs, and leading analysts.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Factor Orders (January), LMI Logistics Managers Index (February)

· Canada Ivey PMI (February)

· Mexico Auto Production/Auto Exports (February)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Car Production/New Car Registrations (February)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

· Costa Rica Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi will meet with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, in Tokyo as part of a celebration of the 65th anniversary of Indonesia-Japan diplomatic relations and 50 years of ASEAN-Japan partnership.

· Japan will attempt again to launch its H3 medium-lift rocket after it called off a Feb. 17 launch.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea FX Reserves (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, further NHS ambulance worker strikes by members of the Unite union are expected. But the Unison and GMB unions, which represent many more ambulance workers in England, have called off their industrial action after what they described as a “huge shift” in the government’s position.

· Also in the UK, members of the Unite members will strike at the Drax power station in Yorkshire.

· Additionally, in the UK, driving examiners who are part of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union begin a program of rolling strikes over pay, pensions, and jobs.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland.

· Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (February), Retail Sales (January)

· Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (February), Retail Sales (January)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (February)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (February)

· Switzerland Inflation (February), CPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey’s political opposition parties, working in an alliance, are expected to announce their mutual decision on a presidential candidate to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, it appears the alliance is struggling to stay together on their decision and may fracture before the elections in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ghana celebrates Independence Day, which they achieved from the UK in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (October/November/December 2022)

Tuesday, March 7, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: Towards the 25th anniversary of resolution 1325 (2000).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee will hold in the afternoon (following Fed Chair Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in the morning) a hearing on “The Federal Debt Limit and its Economic and Financial Consequences.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee.

· US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (March), Wholesale Inventories (January), Redbook (March 4), Consumer Credit Change (January)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (February)

· El Salvador Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN holds the 5th Defense Interaction Program, Jakarta, Indonesia.

· China’s New Foreign Minister Quin Gang gives his first press briefing. He is expected to share his views on China’s foreign policy goals.

· Micronesia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FX Reserves (February), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January-February)

· Japan FX Reserves (February), Overtime Pay (January)

· South Korea GDP (Q4)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (February), Inflation Rate (February)

· Hong Kong FX Reserves (February)

· The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to decide interest rates. Later in the day, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will speak at the AFR Business Summit, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Philippines Inflation (February), FX Reserves (February)

· Indonesia FX Reserves (February)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Defense Ministers hold an informal meeting through March 8th in Stockholm, Sweden. They will discuss the EU’s military support for Ukraine and hold a working lunch with UN and NATO representatives led by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen begins a visit to Canada, travels to Canadian Forces Base Kingston; meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; addresses a Joint Session of Parliament; joint visit with Prime Minister Trudeau of a Canadian clean technology company. One of the key issues she will discuss with Trudeau is how Canada can better supply the EU with raw materials, particularly minerals needed for electric vehicles.

· EU Education, Youth Culture and Sports Council (Education) meets in Brussels to discuss teacher shortages.

· France is expecting additional widespread strikes in opposition to pension reform being considered by the French Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (January)

· UK BRC Retails Sales Monitor (February), Halifax House Price Index (February), BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

· France FX Reserves (February)

· Spain Industrial Production (January)

· Switzerland Unemployment (February), FX Reserves (February)

· Poland FX Reserves (February)

· Ukraine FX Reserves (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (February), FX Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zambia FX Reserves (February), GDP (Q4)

Wednesday, March 8, 2023:

Global

· Today is International Women’s Day.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

· The World Baseball Classic begins in Japan, Taiwan, and the US. It is the first time the tournament has been played since 2017. More than 20 teams will participate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House Budget Committee will hold a hearing on the “Fiscal State of the Union.”

· In Ecuador, The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador will hold anti-government demonstrations.

· The US tech firm Relativity Space plans to launch the world’s first 3D-printed rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee.

· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), MBA Mortgage Index (March), ADP Employment (February), JOLTs Reports (January), WASDE Report

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Exports/Imports/Balance of Change (January)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

· Argentina Industrial Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will convene in Indonesia to resume negotiations over the South China Sea code of conduct until March 10. This is the first meeting since Indonesia took over the chair of ASEAN this year. China has overlapping geographical claims with several Southeast Asian countries.

· South Korea’s ruling People Power Party (840,000 members) will cast ballots on who will take the leadership of the party.

· Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit India for the first time as Prime Minister for talks on security and trade with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both are members of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US), which just announced the establishment of a Working Group on Counter-Terrorism.

· Nepal will choose a new president in elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australian Central Bank Governor Lowe speaks…, RBA Chart Pack

· China FX Reserves (February)

· India M3 Money Supply (February 20)

· Japan Current Account (January), Bank Lending (February), Coincident Index (January), Eco Watchers Survey (February), Leading Economic Index (January)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Development Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, through March 9th. They will discuss global health issues with World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom, and the role of multilateral development banks in fighting climate change, pandemics, and armed conflict. They will conclude the meeting with a working lunch on reconstruction support for Ukraine.

· TO BE CONFIRMED: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to bring the newly negotiated Post-Brexit Northern Ireland Trade Protocol to the Parliament for approval.

· Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will dissolve Parliament ahead of the country's general elections on April 9. The conservative government’s (led by the New Democracy party) term ends in July.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Christine Lagarde participates in a discussion with Ms. Okonjo-Iweala at International Women’s Day event organized by World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland.

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives introductory remarks at a meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Dr. Swaiti Dhingra will speak at the Resolution Foundation on “A Cost-of-Living Crisis: Inflation during an unprecedented term of trade shock” in London.

· Eurozone GDP (Q4), Employment Change (Q4)

· Germany Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Italy Retail Sales (January)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, March 9, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will release his fiscal 2024 budget proposal to Congress.

· Concordia holds its 2023 Concordia Americas Summit in Miami, Florida, through March 10th. A number of US and Latin American senior political figures, CEOs, and scholars are expected to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will speak on crypto regulation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

· US Challenger Job Cuts (February), Initial Jobless Claims (March 4)

· Mexico Inflation (February)

· Paraguay GDP (Q4), Inflation Rate (February)

· Uruguay Inflation (February)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Lower House is expected to vote to confirm the next Governor and two Deputy Governors of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, and two new Deputy Governors, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation (February), PPI (February)

· Japan GDP (Q4), Machine Tool Orders (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

· Australia Building Permits (January), Private House Approvals (January)

· Philippines Unemployment (January), Industrial Production)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Brussels, Turkey, Sweden, and Finland hold talks in Brussels about the two Nordic nations’ respective bids to become fully fledged members of NATO. Turkey continues to hold up Sweden’s membership over concerns that alleged Turkish terrorists are being harbored in Sweden.

· EU Trade Ministers will hold informal meetings in Stockholm, Sweden, through March 10th. They are expected to discuss EU-US trade issues and trade support for Ukraine.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet through March 10th in Brussels. They will discuss asylum and immigration issues, the future of visa policy in the EU, internal security issues in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the EU charter of fundamental rights and the civic space.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk, Sarah Breeden, will give a speech on macro-prudential/monetary policy interactions at Leeds University.

· Eurozone Inflation Rate (January)

· UK RICS House Price Balance (February)

· France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

· Italy Inflation Rate (February)

· Russia FX Reserves (February), Corporate Profits (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Budget Balance (February), Current Account (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (January)

· Egypt Inflation (February)

· Turkey FX Reserves (March 3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya is bracing for nationwide protests against the government's response to the cost-of-living crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zambia Current Account (Q4), Business Confidence (Q1)

Friday, March 10, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Florida Governor Ron DeSantis visits Iowa. He will make visits later this month to Nevada and New Hampshire in advance of a likely presidential bid.

· The SXSW 2023 Conference kicks off in Austin, Texas. This conference will focus on artificial intelligence, security, privacy, and social media platforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Unemployment (February), Monthly Budget Statement (February)

· Canada Unemployment (February), Participation Rate (February), Capacity Utilization (Q4)

· Brazil Business Confidence (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Upper House is expected to vote to confirm the next Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, and two new Deputy Governors, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida.

· China’s President Xi is officially confirmed by the People’s National Congress. Additionally, the new institutional reform plan will be confirmed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Household Spending (January), PPI (February)

· China New Yuan Loans (February), Outstanding Loan Growth (February), Total Social Financing (February), M2 Money Supply (February), Vehicle Sales (February)

· India FX Reserves (March 3), Deposit Growth/Bank Loan Growth (February), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)

· South Korea Current Account (January)

· Philippines FDI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Washington, DC, to meet with President Joe Biden. They are expected to discuss the Ukraine War as well as US-EU trade tensions. Additionally, The focus of the meetings will be “collaboration” on clean innovation, supply chains for green technology, and “rallying the world behind a global net zero emissions goal.”

· UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron. The meeting is an effort to revive ties after recent political and trade tensions.

· In the UK, a 36-hour strike begins this evening over pay by more than 100 rail engineering workers employed by Balfour Beatty and members of the RMT union, the second in a series of walkouts this month.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a presentation on the digital euro at a meeting of the Executive Committee of the European Banking Federation in Frankfurt, Germany.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel in the conference "The New Frontiers in Digital Finance" organized by Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa in Rome, Italy.

· Germany Inflation (February), CPI (February)

· UK GDP (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Industrial Production (January), Goods Trade Balance (January), Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

· France Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

· Spain Retail Sales (January)

· Italy PPI (January)

· Poland Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Ukraine Inflation (February)

· Russia Inflation (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Unemployment (January), Industrial Production (January), Participation Rate (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Rwanda Inflation (February)

Saturday, March 11, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s new Premier will be confirmed by the People’s National Congress. It is expected Li Quing will be chosen.

· Today is the 12th anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania celebrates Independence Restoration Day.

· UK’s Green Party begins its Spring Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria, having just finished presidential and parliamentary elections, will again head to the polls to elect state governors and state assembly representatives.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 12, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Daylights Savings begins in the United States, advancing the clock one hour.

· The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP (Q4)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cameroon holds Senate elections.

· Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, gaining its independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 3/3/23 Francis Kelly 3/3/23

“A World Transforming: Global Trends Provide Investment Insights”

You might be interested in my article in the current edition of Investments & Wealth Monitor entitled “A World Transforming: Global Trends Provide Investment Insights.”

I identify four global trends transforming the world and markets. And with them, I try to answer some critical questions investment advisors are facing today: What should investment professionals understand about those changes, how best to read these changes, and which sectors will likely be most affected? Geographically, which regions will be the biggest winners and losers of these changes? How should investment professionals assess all this in the short, medium, and long term?

I hope you find this helpful. Please let me know if you have any questions.

Francis Kelly 2/26/23 Francis Kelly 2/26/23

The Global Week Ahead

February 26 - March 5, 2023

This week, Ukraine and China will dominate the geopolitical calendar. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the White House for talks on Ukraine on Friday while G20 Foreign Ministers meet in India to discuss the Ukraine War, food security, and other pressing issues. The meeting is likely to be quite tense as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has confirmed he will be in attendance.

China will be holding the National People’s Congress later this week, where a host of new government appointments will be made, including the new Chinese Premier, the Finance Minister, and the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, among others. We will also see Beijing unveil new policies to energize the economy post-COVID along with its 2023 budget.

Global markets this week will be looking at key economic data releases in China, Japan, the EU, and the US. US data releases this week. China PMIs, EU CPIs, and US consumer confidence are most in focus. In Japan, the candidates for Governor and the two Deputy Governors of the Bank of Japan have confirmation hearings in the Upper House of the Japanese Parliament this week. They are likely to be quickly confirmed.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Mexico, opponents of reforms to Mexico's National Electoral Institute will protest in major cities nationwide.

· Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee holds the second plenary session through February 28th in Beijing. It is expected they will hold discussions on party reforms and state organizations.

· Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party to hold their party convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italy's leading center-left opposition party, the Democratic Party, will elect its new leader.

· The Czech Republic's foreign minister, Jan Lipavsky, will begin a four-day visit to India to discuss bilateral issues and participate in the India-EU Business and Sustainability Conclave.

· In the UK, Manchester United plays Newcastle United in the Carabou Cup Final at Wembley Stadium, London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait observes Liberation Day, remembering the day the country was liberated by Iraqi occupation in 1991 as a result of Operation Desert Storm.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 27, 2023:

Global

· The UN’s 52nd regular session of the Human Rights Council will be held in Geneva. UN Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver remarks.

· Later in the afternoon, Secretary-General Guterres will deliver remarks at the Opening of the High-Level Pledging Event on the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen. He will also hold a number of bilateral meetings throughout the day.  

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

· The 10th Annual World Ocean Summit & Expo begins in Lisbon, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s SpaceX Crew-6 mission is scheduled to launch from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

· The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson gives a virtual lecture at Harvard University Macroeconomics Course (Ec10) entitled “Recent Inflation and the Dual Mandate.”

· US Durable Goods Orders (January), Pending Home Sales (January), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)

· Canada Current Account (Q4)

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February), BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Unemployment (January)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (January)

· Argentina Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand will host the Cobra Gold Exercise 2023, a multinational military exercise involving more than 7,000 troops from 30 countries, including the US, Japan, and South Korea.

· Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's upstart Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party (United Thai Nation Party) will hold an event to officially welcome 30 defecting lawmakers into the party as general elections near.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor-candidate Kazuo Ueda appears at his confirmation hearing before the Upper House of the Japanese Diet. He testified before the Lower House last week and is expected to be swiftly confirmed.

· Japan Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

· New Zealand Retail Sales (Q4), Company Gross Profits (Q4), Business Inventories (Q4)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

· Malaysia PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Azerbaijan through February 28th to discuss bilateral issues and the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which Russia is attempting to mediate.

· Today is the ninth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Crimea.

· EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel will host Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti in an attempt to normalize ties between the two nations. Last week, EU officials warned Russia was meddling in the talks and attempting to derail them.

· The EU Telecommunications, Transport, and Energy Ministers will informally meet in Brussels through February 28th.

· British Medical Association strike ballot closes for NHS consultants to decide whether they will stage industrial action over pay levels.

· UK’s PCS Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) staff will strike as part of a national campaign over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy term.

· Madrid, Spain hosts the Mobile World Congress, the telecom industry's biggest annual gathering in the world.

· Paris Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane gives a lecture on "Macro-Financial Stability in the EU: some lessons on the occasion of Fifty Years of Irish Membership of the EU" at an event organized by the Consulate General of Ireland and Goethe Universität in Frankfurt.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy Victoria Saporta gives a speech on the interaction between financial regulation and competitiveness and growth. The speech will be at the BoE. The British Parliament is currently debating a Financial Services and Markets Bill that will redefine the PRA’s responsibilities. While the PRA’s primary objectives will not change, the PRA is very likely to be given a new secondary objective.

· Eurozone Economic Sentiment (February), Industrial Sentiment (February), Selling Price Expectations (February), Services Sentiment (February), Consumer Confidence (February), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Loans to Households (January), Loans to Companies (January), M3 Money Supply (January)

· Italy Business Confidence/Consumer Confidence (February)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), Economic Confidence Index (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa’s naval exercises with Russia and China are scheduled to conclude.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 28, 2023:

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and participate in a meeting of the C5+1 format, which is comprised of the United States and the Central Asian states.

· The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the limits of President Biden’s Student-Loan forgiveness program.

· The US Department of Commerce begins accepting applications for the first round of grants created by the CHIPS Act ($53 billion).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO Austan Goolsbee gives a speech at the Garatoni Center for Advance Manufacturing and Automation at an event hosted by Ivy Tech Community College in Goshen, IN.

· US Goods Trade Balance (January), Retail Inventories/Wholesale Inventories (January), Redbook (February 25th ), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (December), Chicago PMI (February), CB Consumer Confidence (February), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February), Richmond Fed Services Index (February), Dallas Fed Services Index (February),

· Canada GDP (Q4)

· Brazil Unemployment (December)

· Chile Copper Production (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Colombia Unemployment (January), Cement Production (January)

· Uruguay Current Account (January), Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan expects to sign an agreement with the IMF for a $7 billion loan.

· Taiwan celebrates Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The two candidates for Deputy Governors of Japan’s Central Bank, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida, will testify at their confirmation hearing before the Upper House of the Japanese Diet. Both testified at a confirmation hearing before the Lower House last week and are expected to be confirmed quickly.

· Japan Retail Sales (January), Industrial Production (January), Housing Starts (January), Construction Orders (January)

· India GDP (Q4), Government Budget Value (January), Infrastructure Output (January)

· New Zealand Business Confidence (February), Building Permits (January)

· Australia Housing Credit (January), Retail Sales (January), Private Sector Credit (January), Current Account (Q4), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February), Ai Group Industry Index (February), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Singapore bank Lending (January), Balance of Trade (February), Import Prices/Export Prices (January), PPI (January)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade(February), Industrial Production (February), Inflation (February), Retail Sales (February), Tourist Arrivals (February), FDI (February)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

· Philippines Budget Balance (December)

· Thailand Industrial Production (January), Current Account (January), Private Consumption (January), Private Investment (January), Coincident Report (January), Retail Sales (December)

· Sri Lanka Inflation (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Finnish Parliament is expected to vote to approve Finland becoming a member of NATO.

· German Bundestag (parliament) commissioner for the armed forces, Eva Högl, will present the 2022 annual report on the state of the Bundeswehr (armed forces), which is traditionally also published in English on the German parliament’s website (here). The report will be seen as a benchmark of how far and how fast the German military has grown and improved in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

· In Scotland and in northern England, teachers will go on strike.

· In the UK, Amazon UK warehouse workers will go on strike.

· Cyprus celebrates Green Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Bundesbank Annual Report, Import Prices (January)

· France Inflation Rate (February), GDP (Q4)

· Spain Inflation (February), Current Account)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (February), GDP (Q4)

· Italy Industrial Sales (December)

· Poland GDP (Q4)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey GDP (Q4)

· Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (January), M2 & M3 Money Supply (January)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (January)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (January)

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni makes a state visit to South Africa.

· Deadline for negotiations between the government of Guinea and Chinese mining company Baowu over the Simandou iron ore mine. This will be one of the largest iron ore mining operations in the world. China is expected to build 235 bridges and tunnels that run up to 11 kilometers to support the project. The project puts Australia iron-ore exports to China at risk as China seeks alternative supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment (Q4), Balance of Trade (January), Private Sector Credit (January), M3 Money Supply (January)

· Nigeria FX Reserves (February)

· Zimbabwe Inflation (February)

· Kenya Inflation (February)

Wednesday, March 1, 2023:

Global

· The G-20 Foreign Ministers meet in New Delhi, India. Russian Foreign Minister has confirmed his attendance despite the fact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be discussed, as well as food security and debt troubles in developing countries. While there, the foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the US will hold a working breakfast of the Quad to confirm the Quad leaders meeting in May in Sydney, Australia.

· In the Northern Hemisphere, today is the first day of meteorological spring.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai in Washington, D.C., to discuss the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act through March 3.

· House Democrats will hold their annual strategy retreat in Baltimore through March 3rd. President Biden is expected to speak to the caucus. House Republicans are expected to hold their retreat in Orlando, Florida, on March 19-21.

· The Grupo de Puebla (a gathering of progressive/left-wing parliamentarians and groups from Latin America and Spain) will be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Argentine President Alberto Fernandez and Vice President Christina Kirchner will host and attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), ISM Manufacturing PMI/Manufacturing Employment/Manufacturing New Orders Figures (February), Construction Spending (January), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb. 24), MBA Mortgage Market Index (Feb. 24)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Balance of Trade (February)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

· Mexico Business Confidence (February), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Peru Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Nakagawa appears before a hearing of the Japanese Diet.

· South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day.

· Today is Yap Day in the Yap State, one of the four states that make up the Federated States of Micronesia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Nakagawa Junko speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Fukushima.

· China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMIs (February)

· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance Trade (February),

· Australia GDP (Q4), Monthly CPI Indicator (January), Commodity Prices (February)

· New Zealand Export Prices/Import Prices (Q4), Terms of Trade (Q4)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation (February)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Thailand Business Confidence (February)

· Pakistan Inflation (February), Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will begin a four-nation tour of Central African countries in an effort to counter growing Chinese and Russian influence. He will visit Gabon to attend the One Forest Summit. He will then travel to Angola, the Republic of Congo, and finish the tour in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

· In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing is expected to go on a 48-hour non-stop strike over pay issues until March 3rd.

· In the UK, teachers in the Midlands and east of England will go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Cost-of-Living Crisis Conference in London.

· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment (February), Inflation (February)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), New Car Sales (February)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (January), Mortgage Lending (January), S&P Global/SIPS Manufacturing PMI (February), Net Lending to Individuals (January)

· Italy Full-year GDP Growth (2023)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (January), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), New Car Sales (February)

· Russia GDP (December & January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment (January), Real Wages (December), Retail Sales (January), Business Confidence (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February), Total Vehicle Sales (February)

Thursday, March 2, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Panama hosts the Our Ocean Conference in Panama City.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks virtually at the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America event on the economic outlook.

· US Unit Labor Costs (Q4), Nonfarm Productivity (Q4), Initial Jobless Claims (February 25),

· Brazil GDP (Q4), IPC-Fipe Inflation (February)

· Mexico FX Reserves (January), Unemployment (January), Fiscal Balance (January)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India hosts the Raisina Dialogue, their flagship conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics. The three-day conference – organized by the Ministry of External Affairs and the new Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation (a think tank), will feature a number of cabinet members, CEOs, and academics.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Takata Hajime speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Kanagawa.

· Japan Consumer Confidence (February), Capital Spending (Q4)

· South Korea Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

· Philippines PPI (January)

· Australia Building Permits (January), Private House Approvals (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February

· Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will give a government statement on Thursday on the topic “One Year of Zeitenwende — Strengthening Germany’s Security and Alliances, Continuing to Support Ukraine.” His speech will be followed by a debate lasting around 90 minutes. On February 27, 2022, Scholz spoke his most well-known sentence up to this point during his government statement after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “We are living through a watershed era. And that means that the world afterward will no longer be the same as the world before.”

· EU President von der Leyen travels to Stockholm, Sweden, to meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. She will then participate in a working dinner with Prime Minister Kristersson and the European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT).

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit India for talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. More than 600 Italian companies have large operations in India.

· Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will visit Germany to meet with high-ranking officials. They will discuss bilateral trade issues and the ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) will meet in Brussels to adopt resolutions on distance marketing of consumer financial services and data collection issues.

· In the UK, teachers in London, Wales, and the south of England will go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at Wales Week in London: 2023 economic outlook – a year of growth or survival?

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Money Market Contact Group (MMCG) meeting in Frankfurt.

· Eurozone Inflation (February), Unemployment (January), CPI Flash (February)

· France Budget Balance (January)

· UK Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

· Spain Unemployment (February)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (January), Inflation (February), CPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (Feb 24), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ethiopia celebrates Adwa Victory Day, marking Ethiopia’s victory over Italy in 1896.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, March 3, 2023:

Global

· The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) releases the Food Price Index.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to visit President Biden in Washington, D.C. It is expected they will primarily focus on additional aid to Ukraine as well as discuss the Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on the EU’s electric vehicle industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman speaks on a panel entitled “Design Issues for Central Bank Facilities in the Future” at the Chicago Booth Workshop on Market Dysfunction in Chicago.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Racial Inequality Conference organized by the Laboratory for Aggregate Economics and Finance at the University of California-Santa Barbara and co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Cleveland.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks in person on "What's Keeping Inflation Elevated?" before the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) 2023 Economic Summit, in Stanford, California

· US S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs (February), Total Vehicle Sales (February)

· Canada Building Permits (January), Labor Productivity (Q4)

· Brazil PPI (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February)

· Colombia PPI (February), Exports (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia’s Avalon International Air Show begins in Geelong, Victoria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (February)

· India S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), FX Reserves (February 24)

· Japan Unemployment (January) CPIs (February), Jibun Bank Services & Bank Composite PMIs (February)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (February), Retail Sales (January)

· Australia Judo Bank Services and Composite PMIs (February), Home Loans (January), Investment Lending for Homes (January)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

· Taiwan FX Reserves (February)

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day the Treaty of San Stefano was signed, recognizing Bulgaria as an independent state in 1879, freeing them from Ottoman control.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at the Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF) in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England’s Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser gives a speech at the Imitative on Global Markets. He will give opening remarks at a workshop on markets dysfunction.

· Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), PPI (January)

· Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), New Car Registrations (February)

· France Industrial Production (January), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February)

· UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (February), S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI (February)

· Spain S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Italy GDP (Q4), S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), New Car Registrations (February)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (February), S&P Global Services PMI (February), Vehicle Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Dubai's Expo City will start hosting a Ramadan festival as the emirate tries to re-utilize its Expo 2020 facilities for permanent tourism.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Inflation (January), PPI (February), CPI (February)

· Lebanon GDP (February)

· Egypt FX Reserves (February)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Malawi celebrates Martyrs’ Day, honoring their political heroes who gave their lives in the struggle against British colonialism.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (February)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (February)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (February)

Saturday, March 4, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Colombia Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China holds the National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing – a major event where major policy announcements and government appointments will be announced. The meetings could last as long as two weeks. Led by Premier Liqiang in his last public event, the agenda will cover China’s economic situation and growth targets for 2023. The new Chinese Premier is expected to be announced, and it is likely to be Li Qiang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. Additionally, four Vice Premiers will be announced, including the Vice Premier, who will chair the Financial Stability and Development Committee. Also expected to be named will be the new People’s Bank of China Governor, the Finance Minister, and other major posts. We expect on Sunday and Monday, the NPC will present The 2023 fiscal budget, and policy support priorities will be unveiled on Monday and on March 8th. The new Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, is expected to hold his first press conference at the NPC.

· The Asia Zero Emissions Community ministerial meeting hosted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (February)

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 5, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Estonia holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is the 70th anniversary of Joseph Stalin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 2/26/23 Francis Kelly 2/26/23

The Global Week Ahead

February 19 - 26, 2023

This Friday marks the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To mark this tragedy, President Biden will visit Poland for two days as a sign of support for Ukraine and NATO. Additionally, the UN General Assembly will meet to discuss the war while the UN Security Council will attempt to move a motion condemning Russia’s action (which Russia will likely veto). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may travel to New York to address the assembled delegates. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the nation on Tuesday, two days before Russia celebrates Defense of the Fatherland Day.

On the economic front, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs will meet in Bengaluru, India. Closer to home, the US will report GDP figures on Tuesday while the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last interest rate meeting. Finally, there are a number of central banks considering interest rate hikes this week, including Turkey, Israel, Argentina, and South Korea.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 19, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to hold convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 20, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a non-binding resolution to demand Israel end its settlement expansion in the West Bank. The Israeli Cabinet decided last Sunday to approve a plan to legalize nine settlements in the West Bank and build 10,000 housing units in existing settlements in the West Bank. The US is expected to veto the Security Council vote.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden travels to Poland for a two-day visit and meetings with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes his first official visit to Greece.

· The US observes Presidents Day, a federal holiday. Congress is out of session all week.

· Canada observes Family Day, a holiday in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario.

Economic Reports/Events –

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India and Australia begin negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement. This is the next step for the two nations who reached an interim trade deal in December 2022.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (5Y)

· Taiwan Export Orders (January), Current Account (Q4)

· Philippines PPI (January), Corporate Sector (January), Employment Growth (January), Industrial Production (January)

· Indonesia Current Account (Q4)

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. It is expected that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will speak to the Council. They will also discuss the Afghanistan situation with the United Nations's Deputy Secretary-General and Chair of the United Nations Sustainable Development Group, Amina Mohammed, who will join via videoconference. They will also discuss the situation in Iran and the situation in Moldova.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority Sam Woods speaks at the Association of British Insurers Annual Dinner in London.

· In the UK, ambulance workers and Drax power station staff are out on strike. The British Medical Association is expected to announce results of junior doctor strike action ballot.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Construction Output (December), Consumer Confidence (February)

· Russia Monetary Policy Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s Knesset will hold a first reading of a controversial judicial reform bill. The legislation will allow would grant Knesset lawmakers control over judicial appointments, eliminate judicial review of legislation, and allow parliament to vote down Supreme Court decisions. The country has seen numerous demonstrations over the issue, including one last Monday where more than 100,000 people marched in Jerusalem in opposition. US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a delegation of Democratic Senators are expected to visit Israel on Wednesday, where they will express their concerns over the legislative proposal.

· The UAE hosts the Idex 2023 Conference in Abu Dhabi, one of the largest defense exhibitions in the world, with more than 130,000 visitors expected from 65 countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (February), Central Government Debt (January)

· Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Oman Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the Africa Business Forum 2023 will take place today, on the margins of the thirty-sixth ordinary session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union. The Forum will be jointly convened by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the African Export-Import Bank, with the support of the African Union Commission; Sustainable Energy for All will be a resource partner.

· Morocco marks the anniversary of the Arab Uprising. The protests led to constitutional changes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 21, 2023:

Global

· the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

· In Paris, the UNESCO Global Conference "Internet for Trust" will take place from 21-23 February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court will hear arguments over the issue of Section 230 – a legal provision that shields internet companies from liability for content provided by third-party users. The case is being brought by the families of more than 100 people killed in a series of attacks by Islamic State terrorists in Paris in November 2015.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February), Existing Home Sales (January)

· Canada CPI (January), Inflation Rate (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Mexico Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang hosts Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in Beijing for bilateral talks.

· TO BE CONFIRMED: Japan and China may hold security talks, the first such meetings in four years. Japanese and Chinese officials agreed to the meeting at the Munich Security Conference this past week. If they do move forward with the meetings this week, the Japan-China Consultations between Diplomatic Authorities reportedly will be held today, and the Japan-China Security Dialogue on February 22nd.

· The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation of A Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea will hold its 38th meeting. This meeting goes through February 23rd.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

· Australia Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

· New Zealand PPI (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a National Address to the Federal Assembly. The last time he gave this address to the nation was in 2021. He skipped giving the address last year because he was busy overseeing the invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Russian Parliament is expected to hold “an unscheduled” session to discuss what Putin said the night before. There will also be a huge, staged rally at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium, where Putin is expected to appear.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the situation in the Ukraine, competitiveness, the single market and the EU economy, energy issues, and migration.

· In the UK, university staff will be out on strike nationwide.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February), ZEW Current Conditions Index ( February)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

· UK S&P/CIPS S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February), Public Sector Net Borrowing (January), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)

· Poland Retail Sales (January)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (December)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (February), Manufacturing Production (December)

· Qatar Total Credit Growth (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Indicators (December), Balance of Trade (December), Unemployment (Q4)

Wednesday, February 22, 2023:

Global

· Ash Wednesday, commencing the six weeks of Lent before Easter Sunday, is observed by many Christians globally.

· The United Nations General Assembly will hold Eleventh Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly (Resumed: 17th Plenary meeting) to discuss the war in Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

· is expected to deliver remarks.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia.   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US First Lady Jill Biden begins a trip to Africa with visits to Namibia and Kenya.

· The island nation of St. Lucia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Open Market Committee Minutes, Redbook (February 18th), MBA Mortgage Data (February 17th)

· New York Fed President & CEO John Williams participates in a fireside chat on “Taming Inflation” at the Credibility of Government Policies Conference at Colombia University in New York.

· Canada New Housing Price Index (January)

· Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Leading Indicators (January), Balance of Trade (January)

· Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The US and South Korea will conduct a joint nuclear tabletop exercise in Washington, DC.

· Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visits Indonesia for talks with Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi in Jakarta.

· Sri Lanka holds local elections through February 24th.

· South Korea announces its 2022 birth data. The government has been encouraging young couples to have children by offering the equivalent of $540 per month to a family with a child less than one-year-old. The government has announced that amount will be raised by another $100 next year. The program is in response to South Korea’s fertility rate dropping to 0.81 in 2021 from 0.84 in 2020. South Korea’s fertility rate is the lowest among 38 OECD members.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Board Member Tamura Naoki will give a speech to local leaders in Gunma, Japan.

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)

· India Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, M3 Money Supply (February 10th)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

· Hong Kong GDP (Q4), Hong Kong Budget is presented.

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (January), Construction Work (Q4), Wage Price Index (Q4)

· South Korea Business Confidence (February)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan to visit Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting to be held in Finland.

· Germany CPI (January), inflation Rate (January), Ifo Business Climate/Expectations (February),

· France Business Confidence & Business Climate indicator (February)

· Italy CPI (January(, Inflation (January), Construction Output (December)

· Switzerland Economic Index (February)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (January)

· Russia PPI (January), Industrial Production (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia celebrates "Founding Day," a new national holiday to mark the country's secular history as part of wider social reforms.

· Lebanon is expected to see food prices marked in dollars instead of lira due to hyperinflation raging across the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Business Confidence (February), Capacity Utilization (February)

· Egypt Unemployment (Q4)

· Israel Exports/Imports/balance of Trade (January), Composite Economic Index (January)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria observes the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, marking the anniversary of protests in 2019 which led to ousting of then-President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Budget 2023 to be presented. But while Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is doing this, Eight South African labor groups affiliated with the Congress of South African Trade Unions will issue a strike notice over an ongoing wage dispute.

· Namibia Budget 2023 Presented

· Nigeria GDP (Q4)

· Ghana PPI (January)

Thursday, February 23, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the United Nations and the European Union.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a delegation of Democratic Senators will visit Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Schumer is expected to voice his concerns over the pending judicial overhaul plan.

· Argentinian banking employees are expected to go on strike over pay. Banks will be closed.

· Guyana celebrates Republic Day, marking the day the country became a Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daily will participate in a virtual fireside chat on the topic “A Federal Reserve President Gets Real: Lessons on Leadership and the Economy” hosted by Handshake.

· Atlanta Fed President Raphael Boston and former Kansas City Fed President Ester George will speak on the Fed’s role in the banking industry at the Banking Outlook Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

· US GDP (Q4), Initial Jobless Claims (February 18th), PCE Prices (Q4), Retail Consumer Spending (Q4, Chicago Fed National Survey Activity Survey Index (January), Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Inflation Rate (February)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (February), Economic Activity (December)

· Peru GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets through tomorrow. They are expected to deliberate on a work report as well as finalize election procedures for a new committee.

· Brunei celebrates National Day, also known as “Hari Nasional,” marking the day Brunei seceded from the United Kingdom.

· Japan celebrates the Emperor’s Birthday today.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Central Bank Interest Decision, PPI (January)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

· Singapore CPI (January), Inflation (January), Current Account (Q4)

· Indonesia Property Price Index (Q4)

· Australia Building Capital Expenditures (Q4), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q4), Private Capital Expenditures (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· President von der Leyen will be in Palermo, Italy, to deliver a keynote speech at the Opening Ceremony of the Academic Year of the Università degli Studi di Palermo. She will then meet with President of the Republic of Italy, Sergio Mattarella.

· Russia celebrates “Defender of the Fatherland Day.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· In the UK, Bank of England’s Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Resolution Foundation entitled “The result of rising rates; Expectations, lags, and the result of rising rates.”

· Eurozone Inflation (January), CPI (January)

· UK CI Distributive Trades (February)

· Norway Loan Growth (January)

· Hungary Gross Wage (December)

· Poland Employment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing/Lending (February)

· Kuwait Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (January)

· Zambia Trade Balance (January)

· Botswana Interest Rate Decision

· Gambia Interest Rate Decision

· Zimbabwe's creditors will discuss clearing more than $6 billion in arrears of its foreign debt.

Friday, February 24, 2023:

Global

· Today is the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

· The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs will meet in Bengaluru, India. This is in advance of the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in India on September 9-10. The themes of the meeting, which is broken into two sessions, are “International Financial Architecture, Sustainable Finance and Infrastructure,” and “Financial Sector and Financial Inclusion.”

· the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of peace and security in Ukraine. This will include a vote condemning Russia for invading Ukraine – which Russia and possibly China will veto. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

· The G7 Leaders will hold a virtual meeting in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may take part, where the United States and others are expected to announce additional sanctions on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governors Philip N. Jefferson and Christopher Waller, along with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, will speak at the 2023 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, in New York.

· US PCE Price Index (January), Building Permits Index (January), Personal Income (January), New Home Sales (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations (February)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (January), Wholesale Prices (January), Budget Balance (December)

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February), IPCA mid-month CPI (February), Current Account (January), FDI (January)

· Mexico GDP (Q4), Economic Activity (December), Current Account (Q4)

· Chile PPI (January)

· Colombia Business Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s new Bank of Japan Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda speaks at his confirmation hearing before the Japanese Diet.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation (January)

· India FX Reserves (February 17), Bank Loan Growth /Deposit Growth (February)

· Taiwan GDP (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

· Singapore Industrial Production (January)

· Malaysia National Budget presented, Inflation figures (January), Leading Index (December), Coincident Index (December)

· Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU is expected to adopt its 10th sanctions package against Russia, including restrictions on dual-use technologies.

· Estonia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1918 the Republic of Estonia was first formed. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Also joining the meet will be NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Tallinn, Estonia, to mark the anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GDP (Q4), GfK Consumer Confidence (March)

· France GDP (Q4), Consumer Confidence (February),

· Spain PPI (January)

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (February), Car Production (January)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

· Hungary Unemployment (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 25, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, in India for the G20 Financial Ministers meeting, will convene a roundtable with U.S. and Indian executives in the tech sector to discuss deepening U.S.-Indian economic ties as well as advancing shared goals like bolstering digital public infrastructure.

· Suriname observes the Day of Liberation and Innovation, marking the day in 1980 the corrupt government of was overthrown by 15 Sergeants in Suriname’s military.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 2023 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Finance and Central Bank Deputies meeting is held in Palm Springs, California.

· The Philippines observes People Power Revolution Day, marking the day in 1986 public demonstrations took place for three days. The protests came as a result of the assassination of Senator Benigno Aquino and led to then-President Ferdinand Marcos was

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi through February 26th.

· Georgia observes Soviet Occupation Day, commemorating when the Soviet Red Army invaded in 1921.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Kuwait celebrates National Day, commemorating the day Sheikh Abdullah Al-Salim Al-Sabah became ruler of Kuwait in 1950.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria holds presidential, Senate, and House of Representatives elections. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, with more than 220 million citizens. The presidential election is seen as too hard to predict at this point, with three candidates who are polling very closely.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party to hold party convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, Manchester United plays Newcastle United in the Carabou Cup Final at Wembley Stadium, London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait observes Liberation Day, remembering the day the country was liberated by Iraqi occupation in 1991 as a result of Operation Desert Storm.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/18/23 Francis Kelly 2/18/23

The Global Week Ahead

February 12-19, 2023

It is going to be a busy week around the world this week. Rescue efforts continue in Turkey following the horrific earthquake last week. Expect global relief efforts to ramp up assistance to help the tens of thousands left homeless in the middle of winter.

Meanwhile, NATO defense chiefs meet this week to discuss how to further assist Ukraine in defending itself against Russia just as Moscow gets closer to ordering what is expected to be a massive counter-attack seeking to regain territory liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent months. This comes in advance of the Munich Security Conference, which will almost certainly focus heavily on Russia, China, and the rising security risks worldwide.

Brussels will be busy as the Eurogroup gathers to discuss the financial and political implications of the Ukraine War as well as the next steps in energy policy. Elsewhere, South Africa will host naval exercises with Russia and China in defiance of harsh criticism from many nations for moving more in alignment with the two countries. The exercises come on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The global economic calendar is full this week, too. Markets are watching numerous emerging market inflation reports, US CPI and US retail sales, and US industrial production numbers. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in the Eurogroup meetings and will likely give further insight into the state of the EU economy.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 12, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Venezuela, thousands of students are expected to march in Caracas demanding electoral authorities open voting registration.

· The Superbowl will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan continues to host Naval maritime exercises involving more than 50 countries through February 14th. The exercise – “Joint Operation Aman” – involves air, naval, and special forces of the countries involved off the coast of Karachi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Berlin, Germany, holds a re-vote of the municipal elections held on September 26, 2022, following a court order forcing a re-vote. The September elections were ruled as chaotic by the court, which said it was a “unique event in postwar German election history.” The chaos came as the city held its annual marathon, which partially paralyzed the city. Voters had to wait for hours to ca

· Spain is bracing for a large protest march in Madrid by primary healthcare workers seeking better pay.

· Cyprus holds presidential runoff elections.

· Italy will hold regional elections in Lazio and Lombardia through February 13th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 13, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on children and armed conflict prevention.

· UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres holds an informal meeting of the UN plenary to hear a briefing by the Secretary-General on the report “Our Common Agenda.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will hold meetings with South Korean and Japanese counterparts to discuss Korean Peninsula security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers in Orlando, Florida, on “Independence, Predictability, and Tailoring in Banking Supervision and Regulation.”

· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Balance of Trade (December)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will visit Nepal and meet his counterpart to review bilateral relations. Simultaneously, Nepal’s Defense Minister Hari Prasad Upreti, will begin a four-day visit to India to discuss mutual defense issues.

· The Aero India 2023 air show begins in Bengaluru, India

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss recent developments in energy markets and their impact on the fiscal policy response in the euro area, Euro area labor markets, macroeconomic and financial developments, and policy coordination in the euro area.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with the leader of the country's Communist Party, starting a week of daily meetings with parliamentary faction leaders until Feb. 16th.

· German Foreign Minister Baerbock will meet with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto in Helsinki to discuss Finland’s joining NATO and overall mutual security issues.

· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visits Cambodia.

· Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun is expected to testify at his trial in Munich, Germany, where he is facing fraud charges.

· In the UK, civil servants at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency will strike over pay.

· In the UK, museum workers begin a week of strikes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participate in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

· Switzerland Inflation (January), CPI (January)

· Poland Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December)

· Hungary Construction Output (December), Construction Output (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel's Knesset will begin its series of votes on planned reforms to the country's judiciary, specifically, how the Israeli Supreme Court is appointed. The reform effort has sparked protests, and recent polls suggest a large bloc of voters either oppose the reforms or want to see the process of reform slowed down.

· Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein wraps up a visit to Washington DC by speaking at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

· The United Arab Emirates will host the World Government Summit in Dubai through Feb. 15th.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Current Account (December), Retail Sales (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· US-led military exercises named “Justified Accord,” which involve more than 20 countries, are held in Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Kenya Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Ghana Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Angola Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Uganda Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Zambia Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Mozambique Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Rwanda Bloomberg Economic Survey

· Botswana Bloomberg Economic Survey

Tuesday, February 14, 2023:

Global

· OPEC Monthly Meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “Threats to international peace and security: Sea-level rise: implications for international peace and security.”

· World Bank President David Malpass and Anabel González, Deputy Director-General of the World Trade Organization, will speak at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event entitled “Driving Global Trade for Development” in Washington, DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia is bracing for widespread protests opposing President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda.

· Paraguayan President Mario Abdo Benitez will begin a four-day trip to Taiwan. Paraguay is one of the few remaining countries worldwide that continues to recognize Taiwan over China’s strong objections.

· Guyana hosts the International Energy Conference and Expo in Georgetown.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve President & CEO John Williams will speak at the New York Bankers Association Regional Meeting in New York City.

· US Inflation Figures (January), CPI (January), Redbook (Feb. 11), NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)

· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (December)

· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

· Argentina Inflation (January)

· El Salvador Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore’s government will formally deliver its budget statement for the 2023 fiscal year. With the rising cost of living and inflation, the budget is expected to include various provisions helping to blunt the impact on households.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan’s government will formally nominate Kazuo Ueda for the role of Governor of the Bank of Japan.

· Japan GDP (Q4), Capacity Utilization (December), Industrial Production (December)

· India Passenger Vehicle Sales (January), WPI Inflation (January), WPI Food (January), WPI Fuel (January), WPI Manufacturing (January)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February), NAB Business Confidence (January)

· New Zealand Food Inflation (January), Business Inflation Expectations (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an exchange of views on the economic and financial impact of the war in Ukraine.

· NATO defense ministers will meet in the "Ramstein format" of Ukraine's defense donors in Brussels, Belgium.

· The European Parliament debates major legislation on the EU standards for emissions for cars and vans.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Belgium for a Belgian-German Energy Summit with Belgium Prime Minister Alexander de Croo Zeebrugge, Belgium. They will hold a joint press conference afterward.

· In the UK, university workers begin a three-day strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels.

· Eurozone GDP (Q4), Employment Change (Q4)

· UK Unemployment (December), Claimant Count Change (January), Average Earnings including Bonus (December)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

· Poland GDP (Q4)

· Hungary GDP, (Q4)Budget Balance (January)

· Norway GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey was scheduled to host a natural gas summit but has postponed it due to the earthquake until March 22nd. The summit will bring together gas buyers and sellers from all over the Middle East, Mediterranean, Caspian, and Middle Asia, along with consumer countries from Europe. Russian President Putin had proposed setting up a gas hub in Turkey following the damage done by the explosions that damaged Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea. But that has been delayed as Western officials pressed the Turkish government not to proceed as it was seen as a way of masking additional Russian gas sales to evade sanctions.

· Lebanon observes Rafik Hariri Memorial Day – a national holiday - remembering when in 2005, Prime Minister Hariri was assassinated by a car bomb planted by Hezbollah.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

· Turkey Auto Sales (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, February 15, 2023:

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· In Geneva, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) will launch jointly the Ukraine Regional Refugee Response Plan and Ukraine Humanitarian Response Plan 2023.

· The OECD holds the Global Forum on Responsible Business Conduct in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is expected to formally announce her candidacy for the US Presidency.

· The Congressional Budget Office will hold a briefing on the release of reports titled “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033” and “Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023.”

· Colombia is expected to be hit with more major protests as opposition parties state a general strike against President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda.

· The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting to consider new rules shortening the standard settlement time for securities trades from two days (T+2) to one day (T+1).

· Former Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner is due to be sentenced in a Brooklyn federal court, where he pleaded guilty to corruption charges for his role in helping loot billions of dollars from Malaysia’s 1MDB development fund.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cooks speaks at the Sadie Collective Research Reception at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

· US Retail Sales Figures (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Capacity Utilization (January), Business Inventories (December), NAHB Housing Market Index (February), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February), MBA Mortgage Figures (February 10th), Overall Net Capital Flows (December), Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)

· Canada Housing Starts (January), Manufacturing Sales (December), Wholesale Sales (December)

· Colombia GDP (Q4), ISE Economic Activity (December)

· Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Peru GDP (December), Employment Figures (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will launch its next-generation rocket, the H3, from Tanegasahima Space Center. It is the biggest upgrade in Japan’s rocket program in 20 years and will replace the Russian Soyuz rocket that was blocked from being purchased due to sanctions resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (December)

· South Korea Export Prices (January), Import Prices (January), Unemployment (January)

· Australia Royal Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting

· Indonesia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI/Services NZ PSI (January), Visitor Arrivals (December)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (January), Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Finance Minister Lindner meets with Finland’s Finance Minister Saarikko in Helsinki.

· The International Summit for Responsible AI in the Military Domain discussing the opportunities and ethical challenges of using AI in war commences in the Hague, Netherlands.

· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meets with Malaysian King Abdullah Shah and Prime Minister Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur.

· Serbia observes Sovereignty Day (also known as Statehood Day), commemorating the first Serbian Uprising in 1804 and the first Serbian Constitution of 1835.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report 2021 before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

· Eurozone Industrial Production (December), Balance of Trade (December)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

· UK Inflation Figures (January), PPI (January), Retail Sales (January)

· Spain Inflation Figures (January), CPI (January)

· Poland Inflation Figures (January), Industrial Production (December)

· Norway Consumer Confidence (Q1), Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation (January)

· Turkey Budget Balance (January)

· Israel Inflation Rate (January), Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Oman Total Credit (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

· Qatar Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Annual Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with all the member ambassadors meeting today, other ministers tomorrow, and national leaders Friday.

· The Nigerian Supreme Court will resume hearing a case against the government's ongoing currency swap. Nigeria Central Bank has been attempting to replace the naira (the currency), but it has caused chaos as consumers and businesses have struggled to replace the currency with new high-denominated, redesigned bills.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Figures (January), Retail Sales (December)

· Nigeria Inflation Figures (January)

· Mozambique GDP (Q4)

· Nigeria Inflation (January)

· Ghana Inflation (January)

· Namibia Inflation (January)

· Botswana Inflation (January)

· Zambia Central Bank Interest Rate

· Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate

Thursday, February 16, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives a speech to the Financial Executives International (Northeast Ohio Chapter) at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Cleveland, Ohio.

· St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the US economic outlook at the Jackson, Tennessee Chamber of Commerce.

· US Initial Jobless Claims (February 11th), Building Permits (January), PPI (January), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February), PPI (January), Housing Starts (January), Housing Starts (January), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February), Philly Fed Employment (February) Philly Fed New Orders (February)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s Tripura state is expected to hold elections. However, concerns are rising that political violence could break out as the ruling BJP Party seeks to build on its sizeable lead in what was once a leftist stronghold. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been campaigning for the local BJP candidates, holding rallies around the state.

· Hong Kong will release new population estimates for 2022. More than 113,200 people left Hong Kong in the first half of 2022, and even more, are predicted to have left in the second half as COVID restrictions were lifted.

· Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi will visit Pakistan to explore avenues for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

· Japan and the US will conduct joint military exercises through March 12th on and around the Kikai Island and the US Marine Corps Camp Hansen on Okinawa – both of which are part of the Nansei Island chain, which stretches to Taiwan and separates the East China Sea where Chinese maritime activities have increased in recent years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (January), FDI (January)

· Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), Machinery Orders (December)

· Hong Kong Employment Rate (January)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Employment Figures (January)

· Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (February), Car Sales (January), Loan Growth (January),

· Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Poland’s President Duda meets with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg in Brussels.

· EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and then travels to Munich, Germany, to participate in the Munich Security Forum the February 18th.

· Lithuania celebrates Restoration of the State Day. This is one of two Independence Days celebrated in Lithuania – this one celebrates the restoration of freedom and sovereignty from the Soviet Union in 1990 after being taken over at the end of World War II.

· In Northern Ireland, health and ambulance staff begin two days of strikes over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta Event: participates in a discussion on "Monetary policy after the energy shock" organized by the Centre for European Reform, the Delegation of the European Union to the United Kingdom, and the European Central Bank Representation in London.

· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Dow Lecture organized by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIES) in London.

· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an exchange of views with students Colegio Mayor CEU San Pablo, Madrid, Spain.

· Italy Balance of Trade (December)

· Spain Balance of Trade (December)

· Norway Norges Bank Governor’s Annual Address

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel GDP (Q4)

Turkey FX Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (December)

· Rwanda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, February 17, 2023:

Global

· The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Director of the US Congressional Budget, Phillip Swagel, will speak at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C., on “Beyond the Debt Limit: A Discussion of the Fiscal Health of the U.S.”

· Carnival begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve monetary policy report

· US Import Prices/Export Prices (January), CB Leading Index (January)

· Canada PPI (January), Raw Materials (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Andrew Hsia, the vice chair of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang and a delegation of party members conclude a nine-day trip to China. Hsia said the trip was “apolitical” and aimed at looking into the welfare of native Taiwanese living and working in China. He met with head of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Sung Tao, on the trip. He also sought to resolve a number of import suspensions put in place by China in 2021, which significantly impacted Taiwanese fishermen and small businessmen.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe testifies before the Australian Parliament.

· India FX Reserves (February 10th)

· Singapore Export Figures (January), Balance of Trade (January)

· Sri Lanka PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, Border Force staff begin a three-day strike over pay. Also, West Midlands ambulance service staff go on strike over pay.

· Kosovo celebrates 15 years of independence from Serbia

Economic Reports/Events –

· Eurozone Current Account (December), New Car Registrations (January)

· UK Retail Sales (January)

· France Inflation Figures (January)

· Italy Current Account (December)

· Poland Employment Figures (January), PPI (January), Corporate Sector Wages (January)

· Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4)

· Russia Full Year GDP (2022)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa hosts Russia and China’s Navies for military exercises. The maritime event will take place off the coast of Durban. South Africa and go through February 27th (and therefore overlap with the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022). South Africa, which of late has been suffering massive power shortages, is looking to build their relations with both Russia and China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 18, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Leaders Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

· Gambia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 19, 2023:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to hold convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· China’s Xinjiang Regional Governor Erkin Tuniyaz is scheduled to travel to Brussels and possibly London. Tuniyaz, who has been sanctioned by the US Government for helping oversee massive repression and genocidal actions against the Xinjiang’s Uyghur minority, has not been invited by either the EU or the UK government. However, the respective Chinese Embassies have invited officials from both Brussels and London to meet with Tuniyaz. Human rights activists and many government officials are outraged at the move by the Chinese government, and protests are likely in both cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions. And if you or a colleague wish to get these directly, send us an email, and we will add you to our distribution list.

Fulcrum Perspectives

March 12 - 19, 2023

Sunday, March 12, 2023:

Monday, March 13, 2023:

Tuesday, March 14, 2023:

Wednesday, March 15, 2023:

Thursday, March 16, 2023:

Friday, March 17, 2023:

Saturday, March 18, 2023:

Sunday, March 19, 2023:

March 10 - 12, 2023

Charts of the Week

March 5 - 12, 2023

Sunday, March 5, 2023:

Monday, March 6, 2023:

Tuesday, March 7, 2023:

Wednesday, March 8, 2023:

Thursday, March 9, 2023:

Friday, March 10, 2023:

Saturday, March 11, 2023:

Sunday, March 12, 2023:

March 3 - 5, 2023

February 26 - March 5, 2023

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

Monday, February 27, 2023:

Tuesday, February 28, 2023:

Wednesday, March 1, 2023:

Thursday, March 2, 2023:

Friday, March 3, 2023:

Saturday, March 4, 2023:

Sunday, March 5, 2023:

February 24 - 26, 2023

February 19 - 26, 2023

Sunday, February 19, 2023:

Monday, February 20, 2023:

Tuesday, February 21, 2023:

Wednesday, February 22, 2023:

Thursday, February 23, 2023:

Friday, February 24, 2023:

Saturday, February 25, 2023:

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

February 17 - 19, 2023

Focus on Russia -

Charts of the Week

Recommended Book of the Week

February 12-19, 2023

Sunday, February 12, 2023:

Monday, February 13, 2023:

Tuesday, February 14, 2023:

Wednesday, February 15, 2023:

Thursday, February 16, 2023:

Friday, February 17, 2023:

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Sunday, February 19, 2023:

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