Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
Committee Chairs for the 118th US House of Representatives
We thought we would quickly share who will chair the new committee chairs for the new US House of Representatives. There are not a lot of surprises here, as most observers expected these choices. But what will be interesting to watch is how effective each committee chair will be — especially Appropriations, Budget, Armed Services, and Rule. At this point, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has not fully revealed what concessions he made to the dissident Republican members who fought his election as Speaker last week. There is, according to McCarthy, no actual written document of the concessions but, instead, “a handshake agreement.” Therefore, it is unclear at this point how those “handshake agreements” may impact the agendas of the various committees.
Agriculture: Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)
- Ranking member: Rep. David Scott (D-GA)
Appropriations: Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX)
- Ranking member: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT)
Armed Services: Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL)
- Ranking member: Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA)
Budget: Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX)
- Ranking member: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA)
Education and the Workforce: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC)
- Ranking member: Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA)
Energy and Commerce: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)
- Ranking member: Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)
Financial Services: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC)
- Ranking member: Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)
Foreign Affairs: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX)
- Ranking member: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY)
Homeland Security: Rep. Mark Green (R-TN)
- Ranking member: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS)
Judiciary: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)
- Ranking member: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)
Natural Resources: Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR)
- Ranking member: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)
Oversight and Accountability: Rep. James Comer (R-KY)
- Ranking member: Jamie Raskin (D-MD)
Rules: Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK)
- Ranking member: Jim McGovern (D-MA)
Science, Space, and Technology: Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK)
- Ranking member: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)
Small Business: Rep. Roger Williams (R-TX)
- Ranking member: Rep. Nydia Velasquez (D-NY)
Transportation and Infrastructure: Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO)
- Ranking member: Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA)
Veterans Affairs: Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL)
- Ranking member: Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA)
Ways and Means: Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO)
- Ranking member: Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA)
The Global Week Ahead January 8 - 15, 2023
The world is returning to a regular schedule this week, coming off the holidays. We will see several important bilateral and multilateral meetings in the coming days.
President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will travel to Mexico City for a “Three Amigos” Summit hosted by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) to discuss trade issues as well as the ongoing migration challenges.
Later in the week, Japan’s Prime Minister will meet with Biden – after meeting earlier in the week with his counterparts in France, the UK, Italy, and Canada – to discuss a multitude of issues of concern to the G7 (Japan is chairing the G7 this year) as well as the War in Ukraine.
The US Congress, now that the House of Representatives finally was able to elect Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as Speaker, will get down to work with several hearings and essential organizational decisions.
The markets will look closely at the consumer price index (CPI) and other inflation data from the US, China, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico. The only major economy looking at monetary policy change this week will be the Bank of Korea which is likely to raise interest rates another 25 basis points (bringing the rate up to 3.5 percent).
Here is what we are watching in the coming week:
Sunday, January 8, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden will travel to El Paso, Texas, to assess border enforcement operations and meet with local officials to discuss the ongoing migration crisis. Biden will then travel to Mexico City for the “Three Amigos” Summit on Tuesday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China will officially reopen its border to international travelers, dropping its mandatory quarantine rule and its daily flight limits. Additionally, cross-border travel between Hong Kong and the mainland will set to resume.
· Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Indonesia through Monday, his first overseas trip as Prime Minister. He will meet with Indonesian President Joko Widodo to discuss trade, economic issues, and migrant protections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense, and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the American Economics Association Annual Meeting on “Monetary Policy for conventional times: What toolkit for the future?” in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Business Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to announce its annual policy priorities at its annual election strategy conference.
· Benin to hold legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, January 9, 2023:
Global
· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will co-host with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan in Geneva, Switzerland. The goal is to encourage and coordinate an international pledge to help rebuild Pakistan after debilitating floods last year.
· The UN-backed Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances quadrennial assessment report, published every four years, will be released.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US College Football Championship – the University of Georgia vs. Texas Christian University – will be played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Consumer Credit Change (November)
· Canada Ivey PMI (December)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a global travel schedule taking him to France, the UK, Italy, Canada, and the US through January 15th.
· A group of German parliamentarians, all members of the Free Democratic Party, will visit Taiwan.
· Japan celebrates Coming of Age Day, a national holiday that is held to congratulate and encourage all those who have reached the age of maturity (20) between April 2, 2022, and April 1, 2023.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Building Permits (November)
· Indonesia FX Reserves (December)
· Singapore FX Reserves (December)
· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, in Rome, Italy.
· EU President Ursala von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech at the book launch of ‘La saggezza e l'audacia. Discorsi per l'Italia e per l'Europa’ with selected speeches of the late President of the European Parliament David Sassoli in Rome, Italy.
· The UK Parliament returns to session.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the Money Market Association of New York University on “The UK Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook” in New York.
· Eurozone Unemployment (November)
· Germany Industrial Production (November)
· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)
· Italy Unemployment (November)
· UK BBA Mortgage Rate (December)
· Hungary's Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Budget Balance (December)
· Switzerland Unemployment (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Budget Balance (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nigeria is expected to begin, at the order of the Central Bank of Nigeria, limiting cash withdrawals. Major protests are likely to break out nationwide.
· Tanzania Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa FX Reserves (December), Vehicle Sales (December)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (December)
Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the UN’s peacekeeping efforts in West Africa and the Sahel.
· The UN’s resolution allowing cross-border aid to Syria will expire.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) will host President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for a North American Leaders Summit in Mexico City. There is a large agenda of issues they will discuss, ranging from regional trade concerns to climate issues to mass migration challenges.
· Bolivia is bracing for nationwide protests (including roadblocks of major arteries) in response to the arrest of the opposition leader of the Santa Cruz region, Governor Luis Fernando Camacho, on terrorism charges. Camacho has been highly critical of the left-wing government and has been calling on the government to move up census data that would likely give Santa Cruz more political representation and tax revenue.
· Both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives are in session this week. The House, now that it is formally convened and all members were sworn in with Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) being elected Speaker of the House, will choose committee chairs and vote on key organizational issues haggled over during the Speaker election.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Cleveland Fed officials will host a 2023 Economic Outlook webinar
· US Redbook (January 7), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (January), Wholesale Inventories (November)
· Brazil Inflation (December)
· El Salvador Inflation (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nepal’s new Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will likely face a no-confidence vote in parliament today.
· Kosrae (an island located in the Federated States in Micronesia) celebrates Constitution Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (November)
· Japan Household Spending (November), CPI (December)
· Philippines Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), FDI (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President Ursala von der Leyen, together with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council, signs the third Joint Declaration on NATO-EU Cooperation in Brussels.
· France will begin considering a Pension Reform Bill. A previous effort led by President Emmanuel Macron to reform the system was halted in 2020 after widespread protests and transport strikes in opposition to the effort paralyzed the country.
· The UK will see the first orbital launch from mainland Britain. It will be launched from Cornwall Airport Newquay via Virgin Orbit using a repurposed Boeing 747. The 747 will launch a rocket carrying nine satellites into space.
· IN the UK, UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union at the Rural Payments Agency and DVLA in Swansea are to strike in an ongoing dispute over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms.
· Also in the UK, the teaching union NASUWT closes a strike ballot among members working in schools and sixth-form colleges in England and Wales, recommending that they vote for a walkout over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)
· France Industrial Production (November)
· Spain Industrial Production (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)
· Egypt Inflation (December)
· Turkey Industrial Production (November), Unemployment (November), Participation Rate (November)
· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)
· Rwanda Inflation (December)
Wednesday, January 11, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on Colombia.
· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on Cyprus.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US and Japanese defense officials will hold talks on military assistance to Japan in advance of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio meeting with President Biden on Friday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January)
· Mexico Industrial Production (November)
· Brazil Retail Sales (November)
· Peru Balance of Trade (November)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)
· Costa Rica Inflation (December)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong, marking one of the first major corporate events held in the city since lifting COVID restrictions. A number of current and former government officials and financial services CEOs will be in attendance.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Unemployment (December)
· Japan FX Reserves (December), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)
· Australia CPI (November), Retail Sales (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK is bracing for a strike by ambulance staff who are members of the GMB union in their ongoing dispute over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Italy Retails (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Current Account (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the nation’s independence in 1958.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, January 12, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: the Rule of Law among Nations. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak to the Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce at their financial forecast virtual event.
· St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joins the Wisconsin Bankers Association's Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.
· US Inflation (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 7), CPI (December), Monthly Budget Statement (December)
· Brazil Business Confidence (January)
· Argentina Inflation Rate (December)
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will virtually host the “Voice of the Global South Summit.” More than 120 developing countries are expected to attend. India is now the chair of the G20, and this is part of Modi’s broader attempt to best represent the issues and concerns of smaller nations at the G20 Summit in September in New Delhi, India.
· In Japan, Knasai Electric Power Company is scheduled to restart commercial operations of the #3 reactor at the Oi nuclear plant. The #3 reactor was taken offline in September 2013, restarted in 2018, and then taken offline again for a series of upgrades.
· Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation (December), PPI (December)
· Japan Current Account (November), Banking Lending (December), Eco Watchers Survey (December), Eco Watchers Outlook (December)
· India Manufacturing Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December), M3 Money Supply (December)
· Australia Building Permits (November), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Intelligence will hold a hearing to review a draft report on how the EU could develop legislation better blocking foreign interference in the EU’s democratic processes.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen leads a European Commission visit to Sweden to discuss the country’s priorities during its bloc presidency, which began this month.
· In the UK, further rail strikes over pay, this time by members of the TSSA union at Rail for London Infrastructure, operator of London’s new Elizabeth Line service.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Current Account (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (January 6)
· Israel Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Namibia Inflation (December)
· Ghana Inflation (December)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate
Friday, January 13, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting on the situation in Afghanistan, specifically the Taliban’s ban on female humanitarian aid workers.
· The UN Security Council will meet to discuss peace and security issues in Ukraine.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the White House. The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, specifically how to bolster Japan’s missile defense systems in the face of more aggressive North Korean missile tests and more aggressive Chinese military drills in the region. Kishida announced last month Japan will increase its national security budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 – putting it on par with NATO spending targets. Kishida may call snap elections before the scheduled 2025 elections as a result of this defense spending increase, as new tax increases are set to be implemented in 2024 to cover a shortfall of $7 billion for the defense budget. Kishida is also expected to ask Biden to visit Nagasaki during the G7 Summit in May, which would be the first time a US President has visited the Japanese city, which was hit by a US atomic bomb in 1945.
· In New York, the Trump Organization will be sentenced following a conviction in December for tax fraud.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give the opening remarks at the bank's sixth annual Regional Economic Conditions Conference.
· St. Louis Fed officials will hold a 2023 outlook discussion.
· US Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Michigan Inflation Expectations (January)
· Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (November)
· Colombia Balance of Trade (November)
· Chile Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)
· Argentina Interest Rate Decision
· Uruguay Unemployment (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India will host the Auto Expo 2023, one of the world’s largest motor shows.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China New Yuan Loans (December), Outstanding Loan Growth (December), Total Social Financing (December), M2 Money Supply (December)
· India FX Reserves (January), Deposit Growth (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)
· South Korea Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Interest Rate Decision
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)
· Australia Home Loans (November), Investment Lending for Homes (November)
· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q3), PPI (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Czech Republic holds presidential elections (through Saturday).
· In the UK, the National Education Union closes a strike ballot over pay among about 300,000 teachers and support staff in England and Wales.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Industrial Production (November), Balance of Trade (November)
· Germany Full-Year GDP Growth (2022)
· Italy Industrial Production (November)
· UK GDP (November), Balance of Trade (November), Construction Output (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Goods Trade Balance (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)
· France Inflation (December)
· Spain CPI (December), Inflation Rate (December)
· Poland Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December), Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)
· Hungary CPI (December), Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)
· Russia Vehicle Sales (December), FX Reserves (December), Inflation Rate (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel M1 Money Supply (December)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Botswana Inflation (December)
Saturday, January 14, 2023:
Global
· the Orthodox Church observes New Year.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· A delegation of US trade officials will travel to Taipei, Taiwan, for the first formal round of talks on a proposed US-Taiwan trade agreement.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), FDI (December)
· Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Kazakhstan holds Senate elections.
· Russian New Year (“Novy God”) is celebrated in Russia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Tunisia celebrates its Revolutionary Anniversary, marking the December 2010 start of a movement to depose long-time ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The uprising started with Mohamed Bouazizi, a vegetable seller, setting himself on fire in protest over police harassment.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 15, 2023:
Global
· The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China House Price Index (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)
· Israel Inflation (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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The Global Week Ahead: January 1-8, 2023
Happy New Year! We wish you a happy, healthy, and peaceful 2023.
This coming week, the new US Congress convenes – the 118th – with Republicans formally taking control of the House of Representatives. But at the time of this writing, it remains unclear if Representative Keven McCarthy (R-CA) will secure enough votes to be elected the new Speaker of the House.
Globally, we will see several rotations of the chairs of key global and regional organizations: Japan takes the Chair of the G7 for 2023 (as well as the chair - for January - of the UN Security Council), Sweden takes the presidency of the European Council for the first six months of 2023, and Indonesia takes the chair of ASEAN for all of 2023.
On the global economic calendar, December PMIs will be reported this week for all the major economies of Asia, the EU, and North America. Markets will also look closely at the release of Wednesday of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting minutes, and the US jobs report this Friday to get a sense of the impact of the Fed's rate raises and prospects of a recession. Market consensus expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a gain of 217,500 non-farm jobs in December.
Here is what we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, January 1, 2023:
Global
· Japan takes the chair of the G7 for 2023. The next G7 meeting will be held in Hiroshima in May 2023. Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Yasutoshi Nishimura will outline Japan’s priorities at a presentation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on January 5th (link to registration to hear Minister Nishimura’s remarks in person or virtually here).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazil’s President-elect, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, will be sworn into office.
· Haiti celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
· Cuban celebrates Triumph of the Revolution Day, marking the revolution begun by Fidel Castro.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan to begin its two-year term as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, occupying the rotating chair for the month of January.
· South Korea will stop using the “Korean Age” system for legal and official documents. Traditionally, in South Korea, a person is one year old as soon as they are born. And they gain a year on every New Year’s Day. For example, a baby born on December 31st would be considered two years old the next day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Sweden to assume the EU Council presidency for the next six months. Their announced agenda is to forge greater unity over Ukraine, strengthen mutual defense, and work on trade issues.
· Croatia will join the Eurozone and the Schengen Area Free Travel zone, the 20th EU member to adopt the Euro as the currency.
· Today is the 24th anniversary of the launch of the Euro as the new currency of the European Union.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Sudan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, January 2, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Balance of Trade (December), BCB Focus Market Readout
· Peru Inflation Rate (December)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Indonesia takes the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2023.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation Rate (December)
· Singapore URA Property Index ((Q4)
· Thailand Business Confidence (December), Retail Sales (October)
· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK’s National Union of Rail, Maritime, and Transport Workers (RMT) is set to walk off the job in strike over wages on January 3, 4, 6, and 7.
· Spain celebrates Reconquest Day, marking the liberation of Spanish and Portuguese territories from the Moors in 1492.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), New Car Sales (December)
· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Interest Rate Decision
· Turkey Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (December)
Tuesday, January 3, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US 118th Congress is sworn in. Republicans in the House of Representatives will elect a new Speaker of the House. Republicans are bracing for it to become a multiple-ballot event, possibly lasting several days as Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) battles to win the Speakership.
· The US Senate convenes for a pro forma session to swear in new members. Leadership of both parties has already been determined with Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) continuing as Majority Leader and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) continuing as Minority Leader.
· The Consumer Technology Association’s (CES) Expo – the world’s biggest consumer electronics and technology event – will be held in Las Vegas, Nevada, this week. More than 2,800 brands from 160 countries (much less than at its height in 2020 when 4,400 companies attended).
Economic Reports/Events –
· US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)
· Argentina Tax Revenue
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, to discuss mutual regional security and economic issues. The visit will go through January 5th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December), Commodity Prices (December)
· Singapore GDP (Q4), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index
· South Korea FX Reserves (December)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Employment Figures (December), Inflation Rate (December)
· UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Inflation (December), PPI (December), CPI (December)
· Bahrain Private Sector Credit (November), M2 Money Supply (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola FX reserves (December)
· Nigeria PMI (December)
Wednesday, January 4, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Joe Biden will travel to Kentucky to participate in a bipartisan event with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R), and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) to highlight the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed in 2022. While there, Biden will announce with McConnell a major project funded by the infrastructure bill, a $1.6 billion bridge between Ohio and Kentucky located in the greater Cincinnati area.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Minutes released.
· US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December), JOLTS Job Openings (November), ISM Manufacturing Employment (December), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (December), ISM Manufacturing Prices (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)
· Brazil PPI (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)
· Colombia PPI (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December)
· India S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Australia Central Bank Chart Pack
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)
· Germany Import Prices (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)
· UK Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Lending (November)
· France Inflation Rate (December), Consumer Confidence (December)
· Italy S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)
· Spain Employment Figures (December), Tourist Arrivals (November), S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December)
· Hungary Gross Wages (October), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Emirates NBD PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)
· Qatar Finance Centre PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Uganda PMI (December)
Thursday, January 5, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US will begin requiring negative PCR tests for arrivals from China, Macau, and Hong Kong.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a discussion entitled “Inflation - What Lies Ahead” at the 2023 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.
· US S&P Global Composite PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December), Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), Total Vehicle Sales (December)
· Canada Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)
· Argentina Industrial Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s new law banning organizations from maliciously soliciting donations, enacted following criticism of fundraising practices of Unification Church, goes into effect. This is tied to the assassination six months ago of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (December)
· Japan Consumer Confidence, Joint New Year press conference to be held by Japan Business Federation, Japan Association of Corporate Executives and Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Tokyo, Japan.
· Singapore Retail Sales (November)
· Australia Judo Bank Services PMI & Composite PMIs (December)
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December)
· Philippine Inflation Rate (December)
· Thailand CPI (December)
· Taiwan FX Reserves (December)
· Sri Lanka Current Account (Q3)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK’s ASLEF Union, representing train drivers, is expected to go on strike over wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (December), PPIs (November)
· Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), S&P Global Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)
· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (December), Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December)
· Poland Inflation Rate (December), FX Reserves (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Spain Consumer Confidence (December)
· France S&P Global Construction PMI (December)
· UK New Car Sales (December), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Composite PMIs (December)
· Hungary PPI (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkey’s political opposition leaders will meet to discuss their June 2023 election strategy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey FX Reserves (December)
· Israel FX Reserves (December), Manufacturing PMI (November)
· Qatar GDP (Q3)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)
· Kenya PMI (December)
· Zambia PMI (December)
· Ghana PMI (December)
Friday, January 6, 2023:
Global
· The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index released.
· The Feast of the Epiphany is celebrated in much of the Christian world, marking the final celebratory day of the Christmas season. It is commonly associated with the “Three Kings Day” – the day of the Three Wise Men who arrived at the manger of the baby Jesus bearing gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (December), Factory Orders (November), Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December)
· Canada Employment Figures (December), Average Hourly Wage (December)
· Chile Inflation (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)
· Mexico Auto Production and Exports (December)
· Brazil Car Production (December)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (December), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (December), Average Cash Earnings (November), Overtime Pay (November)
· India FX Reserves (December)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)
· Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (November), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Armenia celebrates Christmas on this day, a tradition for more than 1700 years.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a panel discussion entitled “Global Economic Outlook” at the 2023 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.
· Eurozone Inflation Rate (December), Retail Sales (November), Economic Sentiment (December), Industrial Sentiment (December), Selling Price Expectations (Decembers0, Services Sentiment (December), Consumer Sentiment (December), Consumer Confidence (December), CPI (December)
· Germany Factory Orders (November), Retail Sales (November)
· UK Halifax House Price Index (December), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (December)
· France Household Consumption (November), FX Reserves (December), Retail Sales (November)
· Spain Business Confidence (December)
· Hungary Unemployment Rate (November), Retail Sales (November)
· Poland Retail Sales (November)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iranian protesters are expected to stage strikes through January 8th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Rwanda PPI (November)
Saturday, January 7, 2023:
Global
· Today is Orthodox Christmas.
· Mahayana New Year is celebrated by Buddhists around the world.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China FX Reserves (December)
· Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa’s ANC reconvenes its national conference to decide policy direction. Also, the ANC’s national executive committee will be finalized. The conference was begun in December 2022, but final decisions were put off until now due to various internal policy issues needing to be ironed out.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 8, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China will officially reopen its border to international travelers.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Benin to hold legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
If you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list, let us know.
The Global Week Ahead: December 18-25, 2022:
NOTE: We apologize for the late publication of this week’s report due to travel and technical issues. We will be back next week on our regular schedule.
The world is quieting down as we enter the holidays. But we are watching closely as Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Belarus to meet with the Belarusian leader to discuss regional security issues and, reportedly, to attempt to convince him to join the war on Ukraine. Also, in Russia this week, Putin is expected to hold his first formal meeting with the heads of the four regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed on Sept. 30.
In Washington, Congress is racing to finalize a multitrillion Omnibus appropriations package before the temporary spending deadline of Friday. And the House of Representatives January 6th Committee will release their final report on Wednesday detailing why they are making criminal referrals against former President Trump to the US Justice Department.
On the global economic agenda, central banks in Japan and China are expected to raise rates. There are no significant speeches by any major central bankers this week.
Here is what we are watching in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to add someone to our email list:
Sunday, December 18, 2022
Global
· The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today.
· The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Japan, the Saga gubernatorial election is to be held.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Qatar celebrates National Independence Day, a holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP (Q3)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Niger celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, December 19, 2022:
Global
· The World Trade Organization begins its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to MONUSCO, as well as a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. D
· The 15th UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) ends in Montreal, Canada.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Congress is expected to finalize an Omnibus spending package in advance of Friday’s temporary funding deadline.
· US President Joe Biden meets with Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso to discuss bilateral security and economic issues in Washington, DC.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NAHB Housing Market Index (December)
· Canada Raw Materials Prices (November), PPIs (October & November), Raw Materials Prices (November)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)
· Argentina's Balance of Trade (November)
· Colombia ISIE Economic Activity (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Malaysia’s Parliament meets for the first time since the election of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. They will choose a speaker for the House of Representatives and a vote of confidence for the Prime Minister (which is expected to pass).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Japan starts 2-day policy meeting.
· Indonesia Loan Growth (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Belarus for a meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on integration issues with the Union States. Putin is expected to encourage Lukashenko to join in the war on Ukraine, something Lukashenko has strongly resisted.
· The leadership of the Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF), including UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Prime Minister of Latvia Krišjānis Karinš, will meet in Riga, Latvia. The JEF is composed of the UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to ensure security in the Baltic Sea and North Atlantic.
· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will finalize negotiations and vote on the natural gas price cap mechanism proposed by the European Commission in November.
· Today is the deadline for Azerbaijan to respond to the European Court of Human Rights inquiry on the blockage of the Lachin Corridor. The corridor is considered a “lifeline” for residents of Nagorno-Karabahk, and the EU Court has demanded they reopen it.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at Nueva Economía Forum in Madrid, , Spain.
· Eurozone Construction Output (October), Labor Cost Index (Q3), Wage Growth (Q3)
· Germany Ifo Business Climate (December), Ifo Current Conditions (December), Ifo Expectations (December)
· UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December),
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Senegal’s parliamentarians involved in a Dec. 1 National Assembly brawl will appear in court. The brawl started after two male opposition lawmakers slapped a female member of Parliament during a justice ministry budget vote.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, December 20, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the UN’s Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
· The World Trade Organization will hear two cases brought by the European Union against China regarding EU patent holders and trade restrictions on Lithuania.
· The G20 Joint Finance and Health Task Force meets virtually.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Building Permits (November), Housing Starts (November), Redbook (December 17th)
· Canada Retail Sales ex-Autos (October), Retail Sales (October)
· Mexico Retail Sales (October)
· Argentina Current Account (Q3)
· Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Balance of Trade (October), Imports (October)
· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 23rd anniversary of Portugal’s handover of Macao to China.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China People’s Central Bank monetary policy rate decision on Loan Rate Prime (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (5Y)
· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and press conference with Bank of Japan Governor Harukiko Kuroda.
· Australia’s Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes
· Taiwan Export Orders (November)
· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Environmental Council meets to discuss a proposal that would set specific legally binding targets and obligations for nature restoration in each of the listed ecosystems - from forest and agricultural land to marine, freshwater and urban ecosystems. The measures proposed would cover at least 20 % of the EU’s land and sea areas by 2030, and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold his first formal meeting with the heads of the four regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed on Sept. 30.
· The Commonwealth of Independent States' executive committee meeting will take place in Minsk, Belarus.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening speech at the high-level industrial roundtable of the Joint Energy Platform via videoconference
· The EU Environmental Councill will meet to exchange of views on a proposal for a nature restoration law. The presidency will inform ministers about ongoing work on proposals in the Council, including on fluorinated gases, industrial emissions, and waste shipments. The Commission will present recently adopted proposals that are part of the zero-pollution package and the circular economy package.
· In the UK, as many as 100,000 members of the Royal College of Nursing hold their second one-day strike in a week over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Current Account (October), Consumer Confidence Flash (December)
· Germany PPI (November)
· Italy Current Account (October)
· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December), Interest Rate Decision
· Switzerland Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)
· Poland Employment Growth (November), Industrial Production (November), PPI (November), Corporate Sector Wages (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership will be held in Baghdad, Iraq. French President Macron is expected to attend.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (December), Central Government Debt (November)
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (October & November)
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)
· Israel Composite Economic Index (November)
· Oman Inflation Rate (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)
· Rwanda GDP (Q3)
· Botswana GDP (Q3)
Wednesday, December 21, 2022:
Global
· In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the UN”s Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), as well as a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti and Haiti sanctions.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US House of Representatives January 6th Committee releases its final report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Current Account (Q3), CB Consumer Confidence (December), Existing Home Sales (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)
· Canada Inflation Rate (November), CPIs (November)
· Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)
· Mexico Private Spending (Q3), Aggregate Demand (Q3)
· Argentina Unemployment Rate (Q3), Economic Activity (October), Retail Sales (October)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit to Indonesia through December 23rd. They are expected to discuss the situation in East Sea, regional security issues and trade matters.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)
· Hong Kong Current Account (Q3)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In the UK, more than 1,600 Unite union members at the West Midlands, North West and North East ambulance service trusts walk out over pay. Also, ambulance staff across most of England and Wales will strike over pay as part of a coordinated walkout by the three main ambulance unions Unison, GMB and Unite
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (January)
· UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex-Banks (November), Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)
· Italy Construction Output (October)
· Poland Retail Sales (November)
· Russia PPI (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana PPI (November), GDP (Q3)
· Rwanda GDP (Q3)
· Kenya Balance of Trade (October)
Thursday, December 22, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US GDP (Q3), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November), GDP Price Index (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (December 17th), Corporate Profits 4-Week Average (December 17th), PCEs (Q3), Kansas Fed Composite Index (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)
· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)
· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)
· Mexico Inflation Figures (December)
· Argentina Leading Indicator (November)
· Paraguay GDP (Q3)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)
· South Korea PPIs (November)
· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)
· Thailand New Car Sales (November)
· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (December), Deposit Facility Rate (December)
· Philippines Budget Balance (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold a State Council meeting on youth policy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· UK Current Account (Q3), GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3)
· Hungary Current Account (Q3), Balance of Trade (October)
· Switzerland Current Account (Q3)
· Italy Industrial Sales (October), PPI (November)
· Russia Corporate Profits (October), Industrial Production (November), Consumer Confidence (Q4)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (October)
· Israel Inflation Expectations (November)
· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (December), Overnight Borrowing Rate (December), FX Reserves (December)
· Egypt Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate
· UAE Loan Growth (October & November), M3 Money Supply
· Qatar M2 and M3 Money Supply (October & November), Total Credit Growth (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Friday, December 23, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Building Permits (November), Personal Income (November), Personal Spending (November), Durable Goods Orders (November), PCE Price Index (November), New Home Sales (November), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Michigan Inflation Expectations (December)
· Canada GDP (October), Budget Balance (October)
· Brazil IPCA Mid-Month CPI (December)
· Mexico Economic Activity (October), Balance of Trade (November)
· Colombia Business Confidence (November)
· Chile PPI (November)
· El Salvador Current Account (Q3)
· Panama Current Account (Q2), IMAE Economic Activity (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a draft budget for fiscal 2023 of over 100 trillion yen, the largest budget ever in Japan’s history. Among the big drivers of that figure: Japan’s defense budget is expected to be increased by 43 trillion yen ($318 billion)>
Economic Reports/Events –
· India FX Reserves (December)
· Japan Inflation Rate (November), Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Australia Housing Credit (November), Private Sector Credit (November), Private Sector Credit (November)
· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November), Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November)
· Singapore CPI (November), Inflation Rate (November), Industrial Production (November)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In the UK, the Royal Mail postal workers start a two-day strike over pay, jobs, and conditions.
· UK’s Border Force officers at locations in England, Scotland, and Wales begin eight days of strikes over a 10 percent pay rise, pensions, job security, and no cuts to redundancy terms.
Economic Reports/Events –
· France PPI (November)
· Spain GDP (Q3), PPI (November)
· Italy Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)
· Poland Unemployment (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, December 24, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· France’s President Emmanuel Macron is expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to spend Christmas with French peacekeepers in South Lebanon.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, December 25, 2022:
Global
· Christmas is celebrated around the world.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Japan’s Miyazaki gubernatorial election to be held.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
The Global Week Ahead: December 11 - 18, 2022
It seems to be getting busier – not slower – globally as we approach the holidays… This week, President Biden will host a summit with more than 50 African heads of state in Washington. The big news coming from it leaked this weekend: The US will endorse the African Union becoming a member of the G20, a long-held aspiration of African leaders as they seek to be better heard on the global stage.
Other significant events this week include Japan publishing a new strategic defense document that will codify their efforts to build a sizeable counterattack force in the face of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. This comes as the US opens its first Space Force operations in South Korea to assist in defending against North Korea’s growing missile capabilities. Closer to home, the US government will endure yet another partial shutdown unless Congress can agree on government spending.
On the global economic agenda this week, we will be watching as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all decide on policy rates. All three are expected to lessen the pace of rate increases from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Also, this week, we will see US inflation figures which come out on Tuesday, the day before the Fed rates decision. We will also be looking closely at PMIs coming out all over the globe this week.
Here is what we are watching around the world this week – and let us know if you have any questions or wish to add anyone to our email list:
Sunday, December 11, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· A delegation of senior US national security and diplomat officials will travel to Beijing as follow-up meetings coming from President Biden’s meeting with President Xi at the G20 Summit. This is seen as a positive outcome from the Biden-Xi meetings, and the overall agenda for the US-Chinese officials is, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to continue “responsibly managing the competition” and “explore areas of cooperation.” The US officials were already scheduled for consultation meetings in Japan and South Korea through December 14th but will now incorporate meetings with Chinese officials, as well.
· Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court will certify Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential election victory. He will be formally inaugurated as president on January 1, 2023.
· NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold phone calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. The purpose of the calls is to discuss the UN-backed Black Sea grain deal and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front of pack labelling.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel’s formal deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, December 12, 2022:
Global
· G7 Leaders Meeting via video conference.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Security Council subsidiary organs.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Congress is in session all week and hopes to hold a vote on an Omnibus appropriations bill. But as of this weekend, Republicans and Democrats remain billions of dollars apart in reaching a deal. Failure to reach a deal will result in a partial government shutdown. Separately, the Senate is poised to vote sometime this week on a $858 billion defense spending bill that was passed by the House of Representatives last week.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Monthly Budget Statement (November),
· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Business Council of British Columbia in Vancouver, BC.
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Business Confidence (December)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India Manufacturing Production (October), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (October),
· Japan PPIs (November), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q4), Machine Tool Orders (November)
· Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October & November)
· Philippines FDI (September)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as in Iran.
· The Eastern Partnership Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels. Composed of the EU Foreign Ministers and the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, they will discuss mutual security concerns.
· EU President Ursula von Der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and then conducts a joint press conference with him. Later in the day, she participates in a G7 Leaders meeting via video conference.
Economic Reports/Events –
· UK GDP (October), Manufacturing (October), Balance of Trade (October), Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)
· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Unemployment Rate (October), Current Account (October), Participation Rate (October), Auto Production (November)
· Qatar Inflation Rate (October),
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Kenya celebrates Jamhuri Day – Independence Day – a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (November)
· Ethiopia Inflation (November)
· Tanzania Inflation (November)
Tuesday, December 13, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and South Sudan sanctions.
· The virtual World Space Forum 2022 begins and runs through December 15th. The Forum, organized jointly by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology (BMK) and the Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs (BMEIA), it will continue until 15 December.
· The annual Geminids meteor shower is likely to peak on Tuesday evening – watch for lots of shooting stars.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden will be hosting the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit in Washington, DC. Through December 15th. More than 50 heads of state are expected to attend. Africa is set to be a major focus for the Biden Administration for the next two years in a. bid to help advance the continent economically and to push back on growing Chinese influence. In advance of the meeting, the White House announced that President Biden will announce his support of the African Union joining the G20 going forward, a major goal of the Union for a number of years.
· The founder and former CEO of the failed crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, is expected to testify remotely before the House Financial Services Committee to explain what happened and where billions of dollars in crypto accounts disappeared to.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee starts two days of meetings to discuss interest rates. A decision on interest rates announced with a press conference afterward with Fed Chair Jay Powell.
· US NFIB Business Optimism Index (November), Inflation Rate Figures (November), CPI (November), Redbook (December), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (December)
· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (October)
· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December), NAB Business Confidence (November)
· Philippines Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)
· Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q3)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to consider a proposal for a Council regulation on a temporary gas market correction mechanism.
· The EU General Affairs Council meets focus on the upcoming European Council meeting (December 15th) and discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and follow-up to the Conference on the Future of Europe. The Council will be called upon to approve the Joint Declaration on the EU legislative priorities for 2023-2024 and conclusions on enlargement and stabilization and association process.
· Malta celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.
· The European Space Agency launches an Ariane 5 rocket carrying the Metosat 3rd generation satellite. The launch takes place in French Guiana.
· The UK will see a 48-hour strike by more than 40,000 Network Rail and 14 other rail unions over jobs, pay, and working conditions.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)
· Germany Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December), ZEW Current Conditions (December)
· France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)
· UK Employment Rate (October), HMRC Payrolls Change (November)
· Bank of England publishes their financial stability report.
· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts
· Italy Industrial Production (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)
· Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa's National Assembly is expected to vote on the adoption of an advisory panel's report recommending an impeachment investigation into President Cyril Ramaphosa. Ramaphosa is accused of keeping millions of US dollars in a sofa at his farmhouse. When the money was stolen, it is alleged he did not report the crime to cover up the fact that he illegally kept that much foreign currency. Ramaphosa will almost assuredly be renominated by the ANC Party at their December 16th election conference and, considering his high popularity polls in South Africa, will unlikely be impeached.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Gold Production (October), Mining Production (October)
Wednesday, December 14, 2022:
Global
· The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release the December Oil Market Report.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security. The debate is entitled “new orientation for reformed multilateralism.”
· The World Health Organization (WHO) will today release its Global Analysis and Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) 2022 report, showing the latest status of drinking-water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems in more than 120 countries.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US House of Representative’s January 6th Committee will likely announce criminal referrals they intend to make to the US Justice Department.
· The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting to consider four proposed rule changes aimed at increasing transparency and fairness for investors. The proposals, opposed by segments of the securities industry, are likely to pass a commission vote.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee announces rate increase. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference immediately afterward.
· US Import Prices (November), Export Pries (November), MBA Mortgage Markets Index (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December 9)
· Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)
· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)
· Peru Unemployment (November)
· Costa Rica Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The US will inaugurate its US Space Forces Korea unit based at Osan Air Base in South Korea. This comes as North Korea raises tensions on the peninsula with recent launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
· Fiji holds general elections.
· SEMI, the global semiconductor industry group, holds its annual Japan trade show Wednesday through Friday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China New Yuan Loans (November), Outstanding Loan Growth (November), Total Social Financing (November), M2 Money Supply (November)
· India WPI Inflation (November), WPI Food (November), WPI Fuel (November), WPI Manufacturing (November)
· South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)
· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4),Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q4), Tankan Large All Industry. Capex (Q4), Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q4), Machinery Orders (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October)
· Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q3), Car Sales (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU-ASEAN Commemorative Summit will be held in Brussels. It marks 45 years of diplomatic relations between the two organizations. The two groups will discuss expanding trade and infrastructure cooperation.
· The 2022 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought will be awarded by the European Parliament to the Ukrainian people for bravery. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to address plenary remotely.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a pre-recorded speech at the Finance and Biodiversity Day-COP15 meetings in Montreal, Canada.
· Eurozone Industrial Production (October)
· UK Inflation (November), Retail Price Index (November)
· Spain Inflation (November), CPI (November)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)
· Poland Industrial Production (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Current Account (Q3)
· Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision
· UA Interest Rate Decision
· Oman Total Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa inflation (November), Retail Sales (October
· Ghana inflation (November)
· Mauritius interest-rate decision
· Kenya monthly fuel prices
Thursday, December 15, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts: Global counter-terrorism approach – principles and the way forward.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Colombia and Venezuela will reopen the Tienditas International Bridge border crossing for the first time since the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2015.
· NASA will launch the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite. The role of the satellite is to conduct the world’s first comprehensive survey of Earth’s water surfaces, from oceans to lakes and rivers.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Business Inventories (October), Manufacturing Production (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 10), Philly Fed Employment (December), Philly Fed Business Conditions (December), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December), Philly Fed New Orders (December), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (October)
· Canada Housing Starts (November)
· Mexico Interest Rate Decision
· Colombia Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)
· Peru GDP (October), Balance of Trade (October)
· Argentina GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (November)
· Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China will host the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing. This is the highest-level meeting on economic affairs to be attended by President Xi Jinping and where China’s leadership will set broad economic policy direction for next year. Reports suggest officials will now seek to boost consumer demand and possibly seek to further soften policies around the property sector. The meeting runs for three days.
· India will tentatively test the Agni-5, a long-range ballistic missile, from the east coast of Odisha state. The Agni-5 is India’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of hitting a target 5,000 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China’s People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), House Prices Index (November), Unemployment Rate (November), FDI (November)
· India Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November), M3 Money Supply (November 28)
· Japan Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November), Tertiary Industry Index (October)
· Australia Consume Inflation Investments (December), Unemployment Figures (November)
· Honk Kong Interest Rate Decision
· Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November)
· South Korea Export Prices (November), Import Prices (November)
· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision
· Philippines Interest Rate Decision
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (November), PPI (October), Current Account (Q3)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU’s European Council (Heads of State) will meet hold “strategic discussions on transatlantic relations.” This goes to the ongoing trade fight between the US and EU over green subsidies and tax credits passed by Congress in the Inflation Reduction Act.
· UK’s nurses are expected to go on strike through December 20th as they seek wage increases.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank meets in Frankfurt, Germany to discuss interest rate increases and the state of the EU economy. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward.
· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel at the “New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference” in Rome, Italy.
· The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
· Germany Wholesale Prices (November), New Car Registrations (November)
· Eurozone New Car Registrations (November)
· France Business Confidence (December), Inflation Rate (November), Business Climate Indicator (December), New Car Registrations (November)
· UK New Car Registrations (November)
· Spain Balance of Trade (October)
· Italy New Car Registrations (November)
· Hungary Construction Output (October), New Car Registrations (November)
· Poland Inflation Rate (November), New Car Registrations (November)
· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
· Russia GDP (Q3)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September and October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Budget Balance (November), FX Reserves (December)
· Israel Unemployment Rate (November), Inflation Rate (November), M1 Money Supply (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa non-farm payrolls (Q3), PPI (November), Building Permits (October), Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin
· Namibia GDP (Q3), Inflation (November)
· Botswana Inflation (November)
· Nigeria Inflation (November)
· Mozambique Inflation (November)
Friday, December 16, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the 1988 Committee, regarding Afghanistan. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US government funding expires. Unless a deal is struck, the government will be partially shut down.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak at an American Enterprise Institute event on "Inflation, the Economy, and the Federal Reserve."
· US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)
· Canada Inflation (November), New Housing Price Index (November), Wholesale Sales (October)
· Colombia Interest Rate Decision
· Peru GDP (Q3)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan is expected to approve three defense related strategy documents – including the National Security Strategy – updating for the first time since 2013 Japan’s defense posture. The documents will codify Japan’s ability to develop a military counterattack capability to any attacks on the country.
· Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Deposit Growth (December)
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December)
· Singapore Balance of Trade/Exports (November)
· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (December)
· Philippines Business Confidence (Q4)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· UK’s Heathrow Airport ground handling staff are expected to start a 72-hour strike.
· Also in the UK, more than 100 Eurostar security staff employed by facilities management company Mitie are due to walk out in a dispute over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Inflation Rate (November), Balance of Trade (October), CPI (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)
· UK GfK Consumer Confidence (December), Retail Sales (November), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (December)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December), S&P Global Composite PMI (December)
· Italy Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)
· Poland Inflation Rate (November)
· Russia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· An International Monetary Fund delegation is expected to travel to Egypt to review a plan to release a multibillion-dollar extended fund facility.
· Bahrain celebrates National Days – today and tomorrow – on the anniversary of its independence.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana GDP (Q3)
· Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)
Saturday, December 17, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Bhutan celebrates National Day, a holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Ireland will see Fine Gael political leader Leo Varadkar become Taoiseach (Prime Mininster0 again as part of a coalition agreement with the rival Finna Fáil Party.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Tunisia holds legislative elections. The country has witnessed several major political developments in the last 18 months which are seen as threatening its democratic stability.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa’s ANC (African National Congress) begins its elective conference and elect party leadership.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, December 18, 2022:
Global
· The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today.
· The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Japan, the Saga gubernatorial election is to be held.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Qatar celebrates National Independence Day, a holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP (Q3)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Niger celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
12 Books for Christmas
Reading and collecting books has been a life-long passion for me. At this point, my house is now crammed with more than 3,000 books. Many of them are first editions or author-signed, sitting on the shelves of a large, beautiful library my wonderful wife designed when we built our home.
I came to books as a teenager as a means of escape. I was a terrible student who struggled through high school and college but somehow found the solitude of reading books a relief, a peaceful place to go for adventure, fun, and peace. In all the years I’ve spent talking to clients around the world, I’m frequently asked what books I’m reading these days (is there any way to make a new friend faster than talking books with someone?).
With this in mind and knowing many of you are struggling to find good Christmas gifts for friends and loved ones - I am sharing twelve books I found particularly good in 2022. I hope you find a few of them as good as I did:
The Sassoons: The Great Global Merchants and the Making of an Empire by Joseph Sasson
A fascinating history of the Jewish-Bagdadi Sassoon family who, amid the Ottoman Empire, built a global empire trading cotton and opium while running a massive worldwide shipping and banking empire. They became leaders in British politics and the arts.
“The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, and the Pillage of an Empire” by William Dalrymple
The East India Company was a massive endeavor that forever changed the size and reach of the British Empire. But what exactly did the Company do, and how did it get so large? Dalrymple wrote a fantastic history of the first joint-stock company in history, one so big and bloated that it almost bankrupted Great Britain - more than once. It was immeasurably violent and corrupt and made some in England stupendously wealthy while taking greater India for all it was worth. You won’t be able to put this one down.
“Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy” by Martin Indyk
The Middle East has always perplexed and frustrated the US. It has been 20 years since the US last brokered a peace agreement between Israel and Palestinians, which did not last. How did it all begin? Indyk, who was “present at the creation” and has done extraordinary research for this book, explains all. He is a gifted writer who gives the reader a seat at the table, explaining Kissinger’s talents and weaknesses as he pulled every trick out of his magic bag seeking peace in the region. If you want to understand what is happening in the Middle East now, you must read this book.
“Inside Money: Brown Brothers Harriman and the American Way of Power” by Zachary Karabell
Having worked on Wall Street for nearly 30 years, I've always been fascinated by the history of the most significant firms. For the last 200 years, Brown Brothers Harriman has stood out as one of the US's most potent and impactful investment banks. Karabell writes an incisive history of the old firm and how its partnership culture steered it successfully through tough times and away from scandals - often at the cost of a lot of money in fees. Brown Brothers are not what it once was in terms of power, but because of its ethos of prudence and serving the client, it remains arguably the most pristine of financial firms in the US today.
“America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy” by Robert Zoellick
Bob Zoellick is one of the US' most distinguished diplomats. He played a critical role in negotiating the unification of Germany a later helped hammer out an extraordinary coalition of nations that jointly liberated Kuwait following Saddam Hussein's invasion and occupation. Bob has now written a great history of American diplomacy, beginning with Alexander Hamilton and Benjamin Franklin up to the current day. He identifies five traditions that have emerged from America's encounters with the world: the importance of North America; the unique roles trading, transnational, and technological relations play in defining ties with others; changing attitudes toward alliances and ways of ordering connections among states; the need for public support, especially through Congress; and the belief that American policy should serve a larger purpose. This is a great book chock full of fantastic (and little-known) facts and stories illuminating the story of the United States in the world.
A Pipeline Runs Through It: The Story of Oil From Ancient Times to the First World War by Ken Fisher
We think of petroleum as a relatively new invention, but the truth is has been used since the age of the Neanderthals. Fisher takes an in-depth history of the use of oil over the generations, detailing how the fight for its control changed the world long before we became dependent on it for travel, heating, and all the other modern uses for it today.
The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and the World on the Brink by William Inboden
The peaceful end of the Cold War seems to be fading from history these days, especially as we see another form of Russian totalitarianism wreaking havoc in Ukraine now. But Inboden takes us back to the days when the Soviet Union seemed strong and virtually invincible - and how Ronald Reagan turned it all on its head, determined to throw Soviet Communism “on the ash heap of history.” As an old Reagan White House staffer who was around when the Berlin Wall fell and the Iron Curtain imploded, this was a marvelous and inspiring read of what one man could do to change the world for the better.
Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by M.E. Sarotte
It was then-Secretary of State James Baker who proposed to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev a bargain following the fall of the Berlin Wall: If you let Germany go, we will not move NATO one inch eastward. That, of course, did not hold and, in many ways, helped contribute to Russia’s grotesque invasion of Ukraine today.
The End of the World is Just Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan
Zeihan, who previously authored the best-selling “The Accidental Superpower” in 2014, argues we have been living in an artificial world where the rules of geography, demographics, and the US’s eroding commitment to free trade - among several other factors - are leading the world (but not the US) to a disaster-in-waiting. It is not a cheery book, but Zeihan has done a lot of excellent research and presents some chilling scenarios we all must consider in the coming years.
Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’ Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump by Rachel Bade and Karoun Demirjian
Love him or hate him, the Trump years in Washington were intense and often bewildering. One aspect of those years which left me particularly shocked and asking a lot of questions was how Congress could bring impeachment proceedings against President Trump twice and fail to convict him. In their book, Bade and Demirjian (both Politico reporters) detail in gruesome detail the political hackery and incompetence on both sides of the aisle. A depressing but deeply researched and sourced book.
The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War by Nicholas Mulder
This one is a bit wonky and academic but still very worthy of reading, especially in today’s geopolitical realm, where sanctions seem to be applied everywhere. Mulder takes us back to World War I, where we see how blockades were put into effect - and the innumerable times since then sanctions have been used and their economic impact and effectiveness (or lack thereof).
China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower by Frank Dikökker
Dikötter is an extraordinary historian of modern China, a scholar and professor in Hong Kong who has written about the Communist Revolution and the development of the Chinese Communist Party. In his latest book, he details how China rose from the disaster of the Cultural Revolution to become an economic and political powerhouse - along the way laying traps for itself, which the current leadership is struggling to deal with.
* * * * * * *
Bonus Round: These books I’ve just recommended are - for the most part - a bit heavy academic reads. But I do love a good novel - especially those dealing with the interwar years in Europe. No one does that better than Alan Furst. He has written twelve stories set in Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey, Berlin, and Paris. Characters from one book occasionally appear in later books, adding a twist of memories and experiences to the tale you are reading. Love, war, espionage - Furst somehow captures the interwar years' emotions and events, placing you there as a witness. I hope he writes more.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Weekend Reads: December 9-11, 2022
We are sharing a few research pieces and notable news stories that caught our eye in the past week. We hope you find it interesting and useful. And please let us know if you would like to add someone to our distribution list.
· “The EU has a spy problem – here’s why it’s so difficult to catch them” Politico EU
They’re hovering at the bar at the think tank networking event. They’re raising their hand in the press room at European Union briefings. They’re listening in — if a 2019 warning to staff from the European External Action Service is to be believed — at the bars and restaurants near the European Commission’s headquarters. Faced with Russian hostility and Chinese snooping, Belgium has upped its counterintelligence game — but Brussels remains a spies’ playground.
· “Where Does All the Cardboard Come From? I Had to Know” New York Times Magazine
Entire forests and enormous factories running 24/7 can barely keep up with demand. This is how the cardboard economy works.
· “The New Geopolitics of Global Finance” Blog by Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations
Setser, the Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations, writes an excellent blog discussing geopolitics and finance. In this post argues that the global balance of payments only adds up if the G-7’s geopolitical rivals are also its bankers.
· “Biden, Congress Job Ratings Unchanged After Midterm Elections” Gallup
Despite Democrats picking up one net seat in the US Senate and limiting losses in the House of Representatives in the recent mid-term elections, President Biden’s approval ratings are still at 40 percent. And Congress languishes at 22 percent.
Chart of the Week: The Top Three Producing Countries in Production of Selected Minerals and Fossil Fuels
This week, the European Union concluded a trade deal with Chile, allowing the EU greater access to critical minerals needed for renewable energy (lithium, copper, etc.). The agreement also allows the EU to pivot away from importing away from China. The below chart from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) breaks down which countries extract and process the most minerals:
Christmas in New York…
Nothing can put you into the Christmas Spirit than the tree at Rockefeller Center…taken last week as I was walking from one meeting to another…
The Global Week Ahead: December 4 - 11, 2022
Christmas may be just around the corner, but there are a lot of events of note this week around the world. Canada will be hosting the COP15 Summit on Biodiversity this week. Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Saudi Arabia for bilateral meetings after China holds a memorial service for the recently deceased former President Jiang Zemin. A memorial in his honor will be held in Beijing but closed to the public as COVID cases continue to spike nationwide and lock-downs widen. Meanwhile, we will see the run-off Senate election in Georgia, deciding if the Senate is tied or if Democrats get a one-seat majority.
On the global economic agenda this week, it seems every major nation will be releasing producer price index (PPI) data. We will be watching a number of key US economic data releases, including the PPI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. We also will be getting inflation data from China, industrial production from Germany, and trade data from key economies.
Here is what we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, December 4, 2022:
Global
· The 33rd OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria. They decided not to increase production the face of new COVID lock-downs in China and Russia’s growing struggles to sell oil on the open market.
· Today is “National Francis Day” celebrating all of us named Francis.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will begin a two-day visit to India to discuss bilateral security and trade issues.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, December 5, 2022:
Global
· International Monetary Fund strategy chief Ceyla Pazarbasioglu will travel to China this week for high-level meetings to urge Beijing to speed up debt restructuring for countries in debt to China via Belt & Road Initiative programs. Chinese President Xi Jinping promised at the recent G20 Summit to work on debt treatment. China is the largest sovereign creditor in the world.
· The World Health Organization (WHO) meets in Geneva, Switzerland, to review the new pandemic accord.
· 13th United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) International Debt Management Conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland, and it continues through December 7th.
· The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da'esh/ISIL (UNITAD). Later in the day, they scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Latin American leaders gather for the Annual Mercosur Summit in Uruguay (through December 6th). Most of the Mercosur members are upset over Uruguay negotiating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership without them. There is a slight risk Uruguay will be suspended from Mercosur.
· EU and U.S. policymakers will convene for the third EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council summit, at which they will discuss ongoing collaboration and priorities for 2023, including finding a solution to trade disputes surrounding the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
· Georgia holds its runoff election for the US Senate seat between Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker.
· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit is being held today and tomorrow. A number of leading CEOs and senior Washington officials will be speaking. The agenda can be seen HERE.
· Haiti celebrates Discovery Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November), ISM Non-Manufacturing Orders (November), Factory Orders (November)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November)
· Canada Building Permits (October)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (November), Exports (October)m PPI (November)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol to discuss expanding bilateral security and economic relations and to celebrate three decades of diplomatic ties.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixin Services PMI and Caixin Composite PMI (November)
· India S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November)
· Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (November)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (November), Retail Sales (October)
· South Korea FX Reserves (November)
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)
· Taiwan FX Reserves (November)
· Australia Ai Group Construction Index (November), S&P Global Services and Global Composite PMIs (November), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November), Company Gross Profits (Q3)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The newly agreed to EU price cap on Russian oil enters into effect.
· The Eurogroup meets to discuss the overall economic and fiscal situation in the euro area and prospects for reforming the EU economic governance framework.
· EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.
· The Netherlands celebrates St. Nicholas Eve.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde attends a High-Level Seminar for Central Bank Governors organized by the IMF Singapore Regional Institute (STI) and Southeast Asian Central Banks (SEANCEN) Centre in Siem Reap, Thailand.
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the Eurogroup meetings in Brussels
· Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs (November), Retail Sales (October)
· Germany Services and Composite PMIs (November)
· France Services and Composite PMIs (November), Retail Sales (October)
· UK S&P Global/CIPS Services and Composite PMIs (November), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)
· Russia Services and Composite PMIs (November)
· Poland Retail Sales (October)
· Hungary Retail Sales (October)
· Spain Services and Composite PMIs (November)
· Italy Services and Composite PMIs (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Lebanon’s caretaker cabinet meets for the first time in six months.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)
· Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (November)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (November), PPI (November), CPI (November)
· Lebanon BLOM PMI (November)
· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)
· Israel Business Confidence (November), Consumer Confidence (November)
· Bahrain Private Sector Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nigeria is expecting large protests in response to arrests of a student accused of defaming Nigeria’s First Lady.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Global PMIs (November)
Nigeria's Balance of Trade (July/August/September)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)
Tuesday, December 6, 2022:
Global
· Canada hosts COP15, the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).
· St. Nicholas Day is celebrated by the Roman Catholic and other Christian faiths.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The judges of the corruption case against Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will announce their verdict.
· President Biden and US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will attend TSMC’s (Taiwan’s largest semiconductor company)“tool-in” ceremony in Phoenix, Arizona. This facility is TSMC’s most advance plant in the US. The “tool-in” is symbolic for the for the start of equipment installation at the facility, a critical step to begin operations.
· The first auction of offshore wind development rights off the coast of California is to be held.
· The Milken Institute’s Future of Health Summit is held in Washington, DC through December 8th. It will feature more than 200 speakers from the senior ranks of the US Government and private sector.
· Today is the end of the 60-day period for Chinese tech and chip companies to answer requests for information from the US Commerce Department. Those companies that fail to do so will be added to the Entity List – the official US export control blacklist.
· Today is the 81st anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Redbook (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current (November)
· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
· Mexico Auto Exports (November), Gross Fixed Investment (September)
· Chile Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
A memorial service will be held in Beijing in the Great Hall of the People for former President Jiang Zemin. But will be closed to the public and broadcast live instead.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Household Spending (October)
· Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (Q3)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (November)
· Thailand CPI (November)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (November), Wholesale Prices (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU-Western Balkans Summit is to be held Brdo pri Kranju, Albania. The summit will take stock of progress on key investments under the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans and discussed geostrategic issues.
· Ukraine celebrates Armed Forces Day.
· EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss protecting the EU budget against breaches of the principles of the rule of law in Hungary, €18 billion in financial support to Ukraine, and the Pillar 2 directive ensuring a global minimum level of taxation for multinational corporations.
· EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meets in Brussels.
· The 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Free State of Ireland.
· Spain celebrates Día de la Constitución (Constitution Day), a national holiday.
· Finland celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN Meetings in Brussels.
· ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel “Programmes and policies toward gender equality” at Women’s in Finance Talk 2022 in Stockholm, Sweden.
· Germany Factory Orders (October), S&P Global Construction PMI (November)
· France S&P Global Construction PMI (November)
· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (November)
· UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (November)
· Eurozone S&P global Construction PMI (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)
· Egypt FX Reserves (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The South African Parliament will discuss and debate an independent panel’s report released November 30th accusing President Cyril Ramaphosa of misconduct and violating the constitution. The scandal revolves a $4 million theft from Ramaphosa’s farm.
· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on state visit.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa GDP (Q3)
· Ghana PMI (November)
Wednesday, December 7, 2022:
Global
· the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee, concerning Sudan. They are also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The American Enterprise Institute will hold a discussion on “The Proposed Securities and Exchange Commission Rule on the Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors” This will likely give insights into the line of attack by House Republicans on ESG policy in the new Congress and pressure that will be brought to bear on financial regulators pursuing climate-related disclosure rules.
· Bloomberg holds a Sustainable Business Summit in New York.
· Today is the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 17 launch, the final moon landing by the US.
· Guatemala kicks off the Christmas season with the annual “Burning of the Devil.”
Economic Reports/Events –
· US MBA Mortgage Markets Indexes/Applications/30 Mortgage Rate (November), Unit Labor Costs (Q3), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (October)
· Canada Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Car Production (November),
· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)
· Argentina Industrial Production (October)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Saudi Arabia through Dec. 9.
· National security advisors from India and Central Asia will meet in New Delhi, India, to discuss regional connectivity, terrorism and the Afghanistan situation.
· India celebrates Flag Day, a national holiday.
· East Timor observes Memorial Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), FX Reserves (November)
· India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio
· Japan Central Bank Governor Nakamura Toyoaki speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano, Japan.
· Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)
· Hong Kong FX Reserves (November)
· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)
· Indonesia FX Reserves (November)
· Australia GDP (Q3), Building Permits (October), Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack
· Philippines Unemployment Figures (October) Industrial Production (October), FX Reserves (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Russia's Presidential Council for Human Rights.
· European defense ministers meet at the annual European Intervention Initiative in Oslo, Norway to discuss regional security issues.
· France's Court of Justice will begin hearing a lawsuit against French energy giant TotalEnergies over Ugandan oil projects.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech on the occasion of the 120th anniversary of Bocconi University.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives a virtual speech at the Global Perspective 2022 Conference sponsored by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives the keynote speech at LBS-AQR Insight Summit organized by the AQR Asset Management Institute at London Business School in London
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a virtual speech at the Kanagroo Group debate on the revised CRD6/CRR3 package.
· Eurozone GDP (Q3), Employment Change (q3)
· Germany Industrial Production (October)
· UK Halifax House Price Index (November), BBA Mortgage Rate (November)
· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), FX Reserves (November)
· Italy Retail Sales (October)
· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)
· Hungary Industrial Production (October)
· Poland FX Reserves (November), Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November), FX Reserves (November)
· Ukraine FX Reserves (November)
· Russia FX Reserves (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· UAE S&P Global PMI (November), Loan Growth (October), M3 Money Supply (October)
· Oman Budget Balance (October)
· Israel FX Reserves (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· A Kenyan panel will meet to discuss whether to remove from office four election commissioners who declined to certify President William Ruto's election victory.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa FX Reserves (November)
· Mauritius Inflation (November), FX Reserves (November)
· Seychelles Inflation Data (November)
Thursday, December 8, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA)/LRA.
· The Roman Catholic Church celebrates the Feast of the Immaculate Conception globally.
· Buddhists in Japan celebrate Bodhi Day, also known as Rohatsu.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss climate-related financial risk.
· The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a virtual meeting to discuss account statement disclosures entitled "Do client statements adequately serve investors?"; Discussion regarding corporate tax transparency and single-stock exchange-traded funds.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Jobless Numbers (First Week of December)
· Brazil Retail Sales (October)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s Gujarat state – the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi – will announce election results. The outcome of the vote will help set the tone for the 2024 national election where Modi will seek a 3rd term as Prime Minister.
· Uzbekistan celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Current Account (October), Eco Watchers Survey Current and Outlook (November)
· Australia Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Brad Jones Speech on “The Economics of a Central Bank Digital Currency in Australia: Some Considerations”; Reserve Bank Bulletin, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Defense Agency holds its annual conference in hybrid form.
· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through December 9th to discuss the full application of the Schengen acquis in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania. Ministers will assess progress on the regulation to prevent and combat child sexual abuse.
· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council meets to reach an agreement on two proposed directives: on improving working conditions in platform work and on the protection of workers from the risks related to the exposure to asbestos.
· Lyon, France, begins the four-day Fête des Lumières.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the Sixth Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) "Addressing Financial Stability Challenges"
· ECB President Christine Lagarde attending the pre-opening of the exhibition of Rosemarie Trockel at Museum für Moderne Kunst in Frankfurt, Germany.
· France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)
· Hungary Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Figures (November), Budget Balance (November)
· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate (November)
· Turkey FX Reserves (December)
· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (October), M2 Money Supply (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Current Account (Q3), Manufacturing Production (October)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (November)
Friday, December 9, 2022:
Global
· Today is UN Genocide Prevention Day and the 74th anniversary of the 1948 Genocide Convention.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the D.R. Congo sanctions.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Union employees of the New York Times is expected go on strike.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US PPIs (November), Fed’s Quarter Financial Accounts, WASDE Report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the US Department of Agriculture), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), Wholesale Inventories (October), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (December), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Michigan Inflation Expectations (December)
· Canada Capacity Utilization (Q3)
· Brazil Inflation Rate (November), Business Confidence (December)
· Argentina Inflation (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan and Australia will hold "two-plus-two" security talks focused on North Korea and China.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India FX Reserves (November)
· Thailand FX Reserves (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat "Challenges for banks in a new operating environment" with Mr. Herodotou, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, at the 10th Cyprus Banking Forum & Fintech Expo in Nicosia, Cyprus.
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel session entitled "Greek Banking Sector – Growth and Development Outlook" at 24th Invest in Greece Forum "Sustaining Growth and Investment Momentum" organized by Capital Link in New York.
· Spain Industrial Production (October)
· Ukraine Inflation Rate (November), GDP (Q3)
· Poland Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Russia Inflation Rate (November), Vehicle Sales (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Tanzania celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)
· Rwanda PPI (October)
Saturday, December 10, 2022:
Global
· The Noble Prize Award ceremony is held in Oslo, Norway.
· Today is International Human Rights Day.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Heisman Trophy is announced for the most outstanding player in US college football..
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Australia hosts the first round of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) in Brisbane. The negotiations, involving 14 nations, will go until December 15th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iraq celebrates Victory Day marking the victory over ISIS. It is a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Rwanda Inflation Rate (November)
Sunday, December 11, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front-of-pack labelling.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel’s deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads: December 2-4, 2022
We wanted to share a few of the research pieces and notable news stories that caught our eye in the past week. We hope you find it interesting and useful. And please let us know if you would like to add someone to our distribution list.
· “How to Avoid a New Cold War Over Critical Minerals” by Cullen Hendrix, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics for Foreign Policy
Will the 21st century be the century of the “green great game?” Nations are racing to convert from oil-fueled economies, and having access to critical minerals supply chains is becoming more intense by the day. To prevent a return to the zero-sum logic of the Cold War, those supply chains need to be widened.
· “Meet Europe’s Coming Military Superpower: Poland” Politco Europe
Warsaw is turning to major arms deals with South Korea to establish supremacy in Continental Europe as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues on one side, and the rest of the EU is failing to seriously ramp up their military capabilities on the other.
“Why Didn’t More Reporters See This Coming? How SBF sweet-talked the media” New York Magazine
One of the crucial prongs of Sam Bankman-Fried’s big con was his co-opting of the press, which turned out to be very easy for him. Manipulating journalists was a cinch — so few of us actually know how to write about anything having to do with crypto — and he threw money all over an industry that’s notoriously cash-starved. Now, any members of the mendicant media who have ties to him or helped launder his phony philosophies are acting sheepish, pointing fingers, or insisting they barely knew the guy. Here is how he did and who he did it with.
· “Navigating geoeconomic risk: toward an international business risk and resilience monitor” by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Geoeconomics is the new reality in which European and global businesses operate. From financial sanctions and trade embargoes to rival state-sponsored technology theft and anti-competitive practices, European companies face an urgent need to understand, assess, anticipate and mitigate a whole new range of risks. As state actors play a central role in both enacting geoeconomic measures and responding to them, the need for new forms of public-private partnership and collaboration is likewise rising.
# # #
Chart of the Week: Africa Is the Worst at Collecting Taxes
According to the OECD, African countries have the lowest rate of tax revenues in the world: 16 percent of GDP vs. other OECD countries (which come in at an average of 33.5 percent) Last week, United Nations members agreed to a resolution submitted by Nigeria on behalf of the 54 member states of the Africa Group to start talks on fundamental changes to how taxes are collected globally. The proposal would establish a UN tax convention and a new global tax body. This is something a number of developing countries have long sought but have faced resistance from developed countries.
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