Recommended Weekend Reads: November 25-27, 2022

We wanted to share a few of the research pieces and notable news stories that caught our eye in the past week. We hope you find it interesting and useful.

“Ukraine’s 15,000-Mile Lifeline” New York Times Magazine

Ukraliznystsia, Ukraine’s national rail system, has been referred to as “a country within a country.”  It employes more than 230,00 employees and, since Russia invaded, it has helped the country withstand the Russian attack and successfully fight back.

“Tracking the State of US-Europe Relations” Morning Consult

The trans-Atlantic economic relationship is the largest in the world in terms of transaction value, and among the most complex. Understanding this relationship is key to predicting the trajectory of trade and capital flows, regulation, technological cooperation, and economic statecraft.  The polling numbers are not great.

Source: Morning Consult

“Reunification” with Taiwan through Force Would Be a Pyrrhic Victory for China” by Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, and Gerard DiPippo, Senior Fellow, Economics Program, Center for Strategic & International Studies

Many commentators and officials speculate about Beijing’s plans to compel “reunification” with Taiwan. Much of the existing commentary focuses on how or when a Chinese attack on Taiwan could occur, but there is little discussion of the nonmilitary consequences of such a scenario for China and the world. This brief explores the implications of a Chinese attack on Taiwan based on reasonable, albeit speculative, assumptions.  When considered more holistically, the implications of an attack on Taiwan would be grim for Beijing.

Chart of the Week: Breaking Down the US Right Track/Wrong Track Polls By Political Affiliation

Morning Consult polled more than 6,000 adults on their perception of the US is on the right track or the wrong track.  What we found particularly interesting about this latest poll was the huge disparity of views of participants by political party:

·       54 percent of Democrats think the US is on the right track

·       23 percent of Independents think the US is on the right track

·       9 percent of Republicans think the country is heading in the right direction.

Source: Morning Consult

A Great Time in Atlanta

I was tremendously privileged to speak this past week in Atlanta at the Advantax National Conference. Thank you, Advantax, for having me - a beautiful venue and a tremendous audience of 1,100 of some of the smartest financial advisors in the business. We covered a lot in our hour together: Russia’s war on Ukraine, China and the future of Indo-Asian security, the implications of the US elections, tax policy now and in the next few years, and the coming “Rise of the Regulators” in the final two years of President Biden’s first term in office. Thank you again, Advantax, for a great and very fun time!

The Global Week Ahead: November 20 - 27, 2022

Looking at the geopolitical calendar this week, it will be relatively quiet (it should be after all those international summits last week).  We are watching two significant actions this week: The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th.   While governments and markets have been anticipating this for several months, it may significantly impact Russia's economy and its ability to fund the War on Ukraine.  Also, this week the European Parliament is likely to pass a resolution naming Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. 

The global economic reporting calendar is relatively quiet this week, in part because the US will quickly slide into an extended Thanksgiving holiday.  But we will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday, and South Korea, South Africa, and Turkey will decide interest rates.  Turkey is likely to be an outlier among the world's central banks as it is expected to cut rates by 15 basis points.   And the OECD will be providing an update on their global economic outlook forecasts on Tuesday.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Global

·       The World Cup begins in Doha, Qatar, and runs through December 18. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Inter-American Development Bank is expected to choose a new president.  The previous president, Mauricio Claver-Carone, was fired in September for having an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate and rewarding her with large pay raises.

·       US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

·       Nepal holds national and provincial elections. It is the fourth election ever held since the abolition of the monarchy. But political instability has led to 13 different governments in the past 16 years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017. 

·       It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a formal dinner of the European Round Table for Industry in Paris.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections. 

·       The leaders of Francophone African countries will gather for the Francophonie Summit in Djerba, Tunisia.  French President Emmanuel Macron will attend.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida, and associated individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities.

·       The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is expected to release its Near East and North Africa - Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris arrives in the Philippines.  She will meet with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. in Manila.  And then tomorrow, travel to the Province of the Palawan Island to be briefed on the disputed South China Sea, where China has reclaimed and militarized islands to assert territorial control over the area.  Harris had a brief impromptu sideline meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Cambodia this past week during the ASEAN Summit.  Her visit to Palawan could raise tensions further with China as she is the highest-ranking US official to tour the island and its close proximity to the disputed Spratly Islands.

·       President Biden hosts the traditional pardoning of the Thanksgiving Turkey at the White House.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

·       Chile’s trucking union to go on strike in the northern portion of the country over increasing security concerns.  Chile has seen a significant uptick in cargo theft and assaults on drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives the keynote speech at the Orange County Business Council.

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Report (October)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (November)

·       Thailand GDP (Q3)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Account (Q3), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government is set to approve a draft budget law for 2023, the first for new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meet in Brussels.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, to discuss ongoing issues.  She then meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez, and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a speech on the state of Germany’s economy at the Sueddeutsche Zeitung Economic Summit in Berlin.

·       Berlin’s famous Weihnachtsmärkte (Christmas Markets) open across the city.

·       The UK’s CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Annual Conference begins in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo gives remarks at a conference "La proposition de directive bancaire CRDVI et les relations Afrique – Europe" organized by A. Gauvin & Raji Avocats in Paris.

·       Germany PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Kenya hosts the Democratic Republic of Congo Peace Talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to announce Malawi to be the first low-income country to receive funding through its food-shock window.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022:

Global

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. The Gulf has become the leading region for global kidnappings at sea, accounting for 90 percent of the world total.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris to visit the Philippines’ Palawan Province to discuss maritime operations in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester gives opening remarks at the Bank’s “Wages and Inflation” Conference.

·       US Redbook (November), Richmond Fed Services Index (November), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

·       Canadian Central Bank Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers does a fireside chat at the Young Canadians in Finance Conference in Ottawa.  She will give an assessment of the risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system.
Ottawa, Ontario

·       Canada Retail Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

·       Peru GDP(Q3)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Defense Ministers meet in Siem Reap, Cambodia. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, along with his counterparts from Japan and China, have also been invited to attend. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe speech.

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Moscow.  While there, both leaders will participate in the unveiling of a statue honoring late Cuban revolutionary dictator Fidel Castro. 

·       King Charles III hosts South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for a state visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)

·       Eurozone Current Account (September), Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Poland Employment Growth (October), PPIs (October), Corporate Sector Wages (October)

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Ukraine Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (October), Money Supply (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Multiple South African Unions representing more than one million workers – including the civil servants union – will go on strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 23, 2022: 

Global

·       The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th.  Here is a brief explanation of how the cap will likely work.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US FMOC Minutes released, MBA Mortgage Data (30-year rate, mortgage refinancing’s, purchase index), Building Permits (October), Durable Goods Orders (October), Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November), New Home Sales (October), Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (November)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ottawa.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

·       Panama IMAE Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (November)

·       Indonesia M2 Supply (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3), CPI (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       New Zealand monetary policy announcement.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will likely vote today on resolutions naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

·       The European Parliament is expected to approve a new strategy for enlarging the bloc.  This is likely to lead to the EU formally considering Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia becoming members of the EU.

·       The UK’s Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to pass a referendum bill without the British Parliament’s approval. The Scottish Parliament is attempting to legislate approval of a second referendum on Scottish independence.  

·       Armenia will host the heads of state summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).   Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend, where discussions around international and regional security will be held.   Putin has been attempting to negotiate a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and he may attempt to advance negotiations with sideline talks with the leaders of the two countries.

·       The EU’s European Economic Area Council meets to discuss mutual economic issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de  Guindos gives the opening speech at the XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organized by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain. 

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates on a panel "El rol del consejo en la transformación" at XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organised by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain. 

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       UK S&P/CIPS Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Russia PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)

·       Zambia Interest Rate Decision (October)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision (October)

Thursday, November 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (September)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (November), Federal Tax Revenues (October)

·       Chile PPIs (October)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Mid-Month Inflation (November)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Interest Rate Decision (November), Leading Indicators (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh will host the Indian Ocean Rim Association Council of Ministers.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been invited to attend and while there is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PPIs (October), Coindicant Index (September)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (October)

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

·       Singapore Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to approve an €18 billion loan to Ukraine for 2023.  Additionally, they are expected to pass a measure confirming that EU member states will not accept passports by Russia in illegally-occupied areas of Georgia and Ukraine.

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to seek a political agreement on better coordination of gas purchases, exchange of gas across borders, and reliable price benchmarks.  They are also expected to seek political agreement on regulations laying out a temporary framework to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London, England.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a presentation of the 40th Board of Directors meeting of the European Savings and Retail Banking Group (ESRB) and the 19th ESBG General Assembly in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Analysis Forum in Milan, Italy.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (November), IFO Current Conditions (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will meet with senior Indian officials to discuss a free trade agreement.  The GCC is composed of six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. India and the UAE already have a bilateral free trade pact signed in May.  Overall, India’s exports to the GCC increased by 58 percent in 2021-2022.

·       Lebanon’s National Assembly will meet again to try to elect a president. It will be the seventh time the Assembly has sought to agree on a president.  The Assembly is evenly split between Christians and Muslims, and whoever is chosen must get 2/3 of the vote. The Iranian-backed armed group, Hezbollah, is a major force in Lebanon’s politics, and they want a president who will allow them to further consolidate power in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bahrain Inflation Report (October)

·       Kuwait Inflation Report (October)

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending (November), FX Reserves (November),  Business Confidence (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Business Confidence (November),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Business Confidence (Q4), Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

Ghana 2023 Budget

Zambia Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Press Briefing

Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q3)

Friday, November 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) hosts the Pacific Alliance Leaders’ Summit which will include  the Presidents of Chile, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, and Columbia.  The leaders are expected to discuss how to promote greater economic integration and possible free trade agreements. Additionally, AMLO intends to discuss how the attending nations can expert more power at the Organization of American States (OAS) which AMLO believes is subordinated to US interests.  No representatives from the US or Canada have been invited.  Additionally, the leaders are expected to discuss inviting Costa Rica as a member.

·       “Black Friday” sales in the US, one of the biggest sales days in the US for retailers who offer special sales to “stay in the black” for the year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court will hand down a verdict over whether Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen and five other pro-democracy figures failed to register a legal fund with the police.  Their arrests set off worldwide condemnation.  The normal penalty for first-time offenders is HK $10,000.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November)

·       Japan CPIs (November)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November), GDP (Q3)

·       Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Vietnam FDI report (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss development issues, specifically to follow up on the EU-African Union Summit (which took place in February 2022), and the EU response to the crisis in Ukraine and Afghanistan.

·       The EU Extraordinary Justice and Home Affairs Council meets to discuss all migratory routes and issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the keynote speech at the European Society for Banking and Financial Law Italy annual conference in Milan, Italy.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos attends a presentation of the new book “"Política económica de la Segunda República. España en la Gran Depresión internacional" by Luis Peral Guerra in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December), GDP Growth (Q3)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

·       France Consumer Confidence (November), Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Spain PPIs (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Financial Stability Report

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Eswatini Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, November 26, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Early voting begins in Georgia for the Senate run-off election being held on December 5th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is set to hold elections for local positions ranging from mayors to village chiefs.  The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Party – which seeks better relations with Beijing – appears to be running strong in pre-election polls.  Of particular note, the great-grandson of former Taiwan leader Ching Kai-shek and who is a member of the KMT, appears poised to win the Mayoral election in Taipei. 

·       Japan’s Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo will open to the public for the first time in three years to view the autumn foliage season.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s national rail union (Aslef) goes on strike over wages.  The strike will impact 12 companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Sunday, November 27, 2022:

Global

·       The First Day of Advent in the Gregorian Christian Calendar marking the start of the western church’s countdown to Christmas.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads: November 18 - 20, 2022

We wanted to share a few of the research pieces and notable news stories that caught our eye in the past week. We hope you find it interesting and useful.

·  "CCP: Who makes up the party" The Lowy Institute

Demography is destiny, as is said – and the numbers in China make for a compelling story. In a series of charts and graphs, the Lowy Institute shows who makes up today's Chinese Communist Party and its senior ranks. The short version: It is overwhelmingly male and well over 60 years old.

·  "Interpreting Chinese Economic Policy: Another Brief Guide"  by Derek Scissors/American Enterprise Institute

Chinese economic policy is seen as increasingly important, including to global investors. But transparency has not risen in tandem, and policy is frequently misinterpreted. Here is a guide to understanding China's economic and monetary policy more clearly.

·  "Global Economic Turmoil Calls for a Modernized Global Financial Architecture to Address Needs of the Most Vulnerable Countries"  by David McNair, Executive Director at ONE.org and nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

·       The author argues that, unfortunately, those Western governments with decision-making power and resources to help vulnerable countries respond to the polycrisis are not inclined to use it, given domestic cost-of-living crises in G7 nations, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and limited domestic political appetite for international initiatives.

·  “Russia’s Defense Industry Growing Increasingly Turbulent” Jamestown Foundation

Moscow has actively tried to restore at least part of its arms lost in Ukraine after almost nine months of its bloody war. The Russian national defense budget has skyrocketed. However, the true reality of the current state of affairs appears to be rather complicated for the Kremlin. Even the trillions of additional rubles will make its defense industry less productive and efficient in the short term due to a number of critical difficulties.

·  “Putin’s Fear of Retreat – How the Cuban Missile Crisis Haunts the Kremlin"  Foreign Affairs

History matters and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows it. Putin has closely studied the detailed events of the Cuban Missile Crisis. He understands that then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev was the one who backed down -- not President Kennedy – leading to Khrushchev's removal from office less than two years later. Putin recently spoke of the Cuban Crisis and is clearly desperate to avoid a similar fate.

Chart of the Week: We Reached 8 Billion People Last Week… But Population Growth is Starting to Slow, and India Will Surpass China: 

According to estimates from the United Nations, the world's population surpassed 8 billion people this past week. While populations in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to continue growing substantially over the next 30 years, the annual global population growth rate is now at its slowest pace since 1950 – and moving into negative rates in many advanced economies. Additionally, India will become the most populous country in 2023, overtaking China. By 2050, India's population will be 1.7 billion to China's 1.3 billion.

Europe Is All Gassed Up

The EU has done an extraordinary job of offsetting the loss of Russian oil and gas due to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The early predictions were, quite frankly, dire. Germany seemed the most at risk. News “analysis” of how Berlin was moving toward encouraging citizens to take cold showers and turn the thermostats way down throughout the winter months lit up in the media.

But the EU aggressively tapped into old and new global LNG markets to make up for what Russia could no longer supply. By way of example, we would point to Mozambique exporting LNG to the EU for the first time - an economic win for Mozambique, one of the world’s poorest countries which also possesses Africa’s largest offshore gas fields.

Add to this unusually mild weather in the EU in October and November (so far), and we have to believe they will make it through the winter without having to implement draconian measures. We still have months of winter to go, but the outlook is, for now, we believe quite positive. We will continue to keep our eye on the state of the EU gas storage stats, but one has to believe this is not what Russian President Vladimir Putin had hoped for at this point.

European Union Natural Gas Storage as of November 18, 2022. (Source: Bloomberg LLP)

8 Billion of Us on Planet Earth…

According to the United Nations, the world’s population surpassed 8 billion this past Tuesday.  While populations in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to continue growing substantially over the next 30 years, the annual global population growth rate is now at its slowest rate since 1950 – and moving into negative rates in many advanced economies.  

One of the more interesting trends in global demographics is not getting much attention: India will become the most populous country in 2023, overtaking China.  By 2050, it is estimated India's population will be 1.7 billion while China's population will shrink to 1.3 billion from its current 1.412 billion. In our view, the vaunted “China Century” is likely actually to be “the India Century.”

A Magical View of Atlanta

Took this photo from my window a few minutes after taking off from Atlanta. Magical!

Update: An Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

It turns out the Polish Government's initial assessment was incorrect. Partially incorrect. The missile, which hit the town of Przewodow in Eastern Poland and killed two civilians, was not fired by Russian Forces from Russia. But it was a Russian missile that Ukrainian Air Defense Forces apparently fired as part of their defensive actions against the more than 100 missiles Russian Forces fired at civilian targets in cities across western Ukraine yesterday. It was the most missiles fired by Russian Forces to date into Ukraine since the war started, but we would quickly note Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed 77 of the Russian missiles and 11 Russian “Kamakazie” drones (which are mostly supplied by Iran).

As more details emerge about how exactly such a tragic misfiring could have occurred, we continue to believe, as we wrote yesterday, the tragic event last night will spur Western governments and NATO to reassess and ultimately upgrade the anti-missile and anti-drone missile systems as well as re-opening the debate over sending tanks and fighter planes to Ukraine.

The point we have heard today among US government sources is that Ukrainian Forces are forced to use Russian missiles, which they are not well-trained to operate and are, more often than not, recently captured from Russian Forces on the battlefield, as a means to defend themselves. As one Washington source told us this morning, "desperate times require desperate measures, which means tragic circumstances can result, as we saw in Poland yesterday. The US needs to re-think what we are sending Ukraine and how to speed up their delivery."

This point was reinforced this afternoon by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley,  when they briefed the press on the situation in Poland.   Milley spoke of the need for an “integrated air and missile defense system for Ukraine.” Achieving what Milley called for would clearly require supplying more advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

But what more can NATO send? Quality and quantity are the challenges. In terms of quantity, stockpiles of many main-stay anti-missile/anti-drone weapons are dangerously low in the US. This includes Stingers and NASAMS, which we wrote about yesterday. And while quantity is a growing challenge, so is the ability to link all these Western systems together so they can communicate and more effectively respond to Russian attacks.

In terms of quality, a good example is Patriot Missiles, considered the best air defense system out there but which the US does not provide to Ukraine. Why not? The US Defense Department has said doing so would require US forces to enter Ukraine to operate them because they are so incredibly sophisticated to operate with state-of-the-art radar and command centers. For a US soldier to become proficient in maintaining a Patriot system, they must undergo a minimum of 53 weeks of training.

Nevertheless, once Poland and NATO conclude their investigation of the missile strike, we anticipate Ukraine ramping up its bids to get more advanced weaponry. And this means the thin line NATO is walking with Russia to avoid the war expanding further will become harder to walk.

A Patriot Missile Long-Range Air-Defense System (Source: www.army-technology.com)

A New Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

The news this afternoon that a Russian missile struck a small town in the Hrubieszów district near the town of Przewodow, Eastern Poland, suggests we may be reaching a new inflection point in the war.

While we are awaiting confirmation that it was a Russian, US intelligence officials are anonymously confirming it was, in fact, a Russian missile. Polish media is reporting at least two Polish civilians are dead. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened a meeting of his Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs.

Undoubtedly, phone lines between NATO members are burning up tonight as Poland considers invoking Article 4, which would require formal consultations with other NATO members, or invoking Article 5, which would call for the collective defense of NATO following an attack on one member - effectively, a clarion call to respond militarily to a Russian attack.

We would note the missile struck roughly the same time Russia launched its biggest missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in months, plunging much of Ukraine into darkness. The attacks on Ukrainian electrical facilities were so severe that they caused massive power outages in neighboring Moldovia.

As of a month ago, Russia had successfully destroyed or seriously degraded Ukraine’s power grid by as much as 50 percent. We have to believe the massive wave of missile attacks today and over the past two weeks have substantially increased that percentage.

Source: Financial Times; Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC

While NATO leadership called for restraint until “all the facts are known,” we believe this may trigger a significant inflection point in the Ukrainian War. While we would be surprised to see NATO go to war over this incident, it may push NATO to drop its resistance to supplying Ukraine with higher-quality and longer-range missile systems, tanks, and possibly fighter/bomber aircraft.

In the next few weeks, Ukraine is expected to receive advanced anti-missile systems from NATO known as NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System). But after today’s attack, Western leaders may think this is not enough to protect NATO members along the border of Russia and Ukraine.

NASAM Air Defense Systems are the latest advanced weaponry arriving in Ukraine to defend against Russian missile attacks. They are expected to arrive in the next week. (source: TheDrive.com)

At the very least, we will likely see NATO forces bulked up on the Polish-Ukraine and Polish-Russian borders. This is a fast-moving event; we will hear much more about potential outcomes in the next 24-48 hours.

The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022

Global diplomatic summitry – all being held in Southeast Asia – will dominate the geopolitical calendar this week.  It starts this weekend with the ASEAN Summit in Phenom Penh, Cambodia, and then moves to Bali, Indonesia, for the G20 Leaders’ Summit and then, later in the week, to Bangkok, Thailand, for the APEC Summit. 

At the G20, President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a closely watched set of sideline meetings aimed at “putting a floor” under US-China relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided not to attend either the ASEAN Summit or the G20 Summit in person but may attend via video link.  Later this week, the APEC Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, where regional leaders and a number of world leaders will gather again.  President Biden will not participate in APEC and is sending Vice President Kamala Harris in his stead.

On the global economic front, the announcement this past week out of Beijing of a shift in the Zero COVID policy has buoyed global markets. This came just as markets celebrated a weaker US CPI print suggesting peak inflation may have been reached.  This coming week, markets will keenly look at two key US economic reports for further hope of brighter economic days ahead: retail sales and housing figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 13, 2022 

Global

·       The COP27 Conference continues until November 18 in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       President Biden arrives in Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia following his attendance at the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The G20 runs through November 16. 

·       The US Congress returns for the Lame Duck session following last week’s midterm elections. The passage of the defense appropriations bill and raising the debt ceiling are the paramount issues for them to finish before adjourning in mid-December.  House and Senate Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections this week despite a number of races in both chambers uncalled and rising demand from with the respective caucus’ to put off the elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a discussion at the Australasia Conference in Sydney, Australia.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       The 17th Asia-Pacific Conference on German Business will be held (through November 14). German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz is scheduled to give a keynote speech on the 14th before going to Bali for the G20 Heads of States and Government Summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.

·       The second-round presidential ballot in Slovenia.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to form a new government following recent elections.

·       The Abu Dhabi Finance Week will take place through November 18.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Nigeria Economic Summit will begin in Abuja.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 14, 2022:

Global

·       The 17th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit formally begins in Bali, Indonesia, through November 16.  President Biden is scheduled to meet on the sidelines with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is expected to talk about a host of issues ranging from trade to Taiwan to human rights to Ukraine. The members of the G20 include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Spain is also invited as a permanent guest. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced he will not attend in person but may dial in via video.  

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss peacekeeping operations and Police Commissioners.  Then they will discussion the situation in the Central African Republic.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Helsinki Commission is expected to release a report in Washington, DC detailing Russia’s genocide in Ukraine.  The Commission – more formally known as the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe and is composed of members of the US Senate, House of Representatives, and the Executive Branch – will hold a press conference and panel discussion on their findings. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at the Bloomberg Economic Outlook event in Washington, DC.

·       Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India WPI Food (October), WPI Manufacturing (October), WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.

·       The UK’s BBC marks the 100th anniversary of its first radio broadcast.

·       King Charles III celebrates his 74th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       EBC Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel discussion at the opening conference (12:00 p.m. CET) of The 25th Euro Finance Week Conference in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing keynote speech (5:15 p.m. CET) at the 25th Euro Finance Week opening conference in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (September)

·       Poland Industrial Production ((September), Current Account (September)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Turkey Auto Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit starts in Abuja, Nigeria. The Summit will focus on national and regional economic development. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 15, 2022:

Global

·       The International Energy Agency releases the November Oil Market Report

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Former US President Donald Trump is expected to announce his intention to run again for president in 2024. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and Acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Martin Gruenberg testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators: A Strong Banking and Credit Union System for Main Street.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking Conference hosted by the Bank of Canada (a virtual event).

·       US PPIs (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), Redbook (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru GDP (Q3), Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Panama Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment Rate (October), Peoples’ Bank of China 1-Year MLF announcement

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       South Korea Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October)

·       Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

·       Thailand GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense Ministers) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.

·       UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly answers questions at a parliamentary committee on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

·       19th EU-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels. The Council will review key aspects of bilateral relations, including the follow-up to the initialing of the EU-Kyrgyz Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA).

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 25th Euro Finance Week Dinner hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (October), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November), ZEW Current Conditions (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (September), Claimant Count Change (October), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (October)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October), GDP (Q3)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Employment Change (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q3), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (October)

·       Bahrain Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The African Union hosts a conference on digital economy development in Harare, Zimbabwe.

·       Nigeria’s presidential election candidates’ debate.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

·       Botswana Inflation Data (October)

·       Rwanda Interest Rate Decision 

·       Namibia Inflation Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 16, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through November 18.  They are expected to talk about Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon and their lack of responsiveness to effort to negotiation. They could pass a resolution criticizing Tehran, which would be significant. They will also discuss North Korea’s nuclear weapon program, the situation in Ukraine, and other significant issues. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       NASA hopes to launch the Artemis I test flight mission around the moon from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  This is part of a larger NASA plan to build a permanent moon base to support a mission to Mars.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is hosting the 2022 US Treasury Market Conference.  Speakers include NY Fed President John Williams, Undersecretary of Treasury for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, and a number of other experts discussing the state of the Treasury market and possible reforms.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic “Oversight of Prudential Regulators: Ensuring the Safety, Soundness, Diversity, and Accountability of Depository Institutions.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the 59th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Phoenix, Ariz.

·       US Retail Sales (October), Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Business Inventories (September), Retail Inventories (September), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/Index/Purchases Index (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October), Housing Starts (October), CPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russia will host multilateral talks on Afghanistan in Moscow.  The meeting will include senior officials from China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China House Price Index (October), Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)

·       Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the European School in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the ABI’s Executive Committee meeting in Rome, Italy. 

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernández-Bollo gives remarks at VIII Jornado de Pensiones organized by Cino Días and Ibercaja in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Baily testifies before the Treasury Select Committee hearing on the November Monetary Policy Report.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a Speech at the Bristol Festival of Economics ‘What next for central banks’”.  

·       UK Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q3), Retail Price Index (October)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

·       Russia GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP Growth (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kenya hosts Congo peace talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Retail Sales (September)

·       Ghana PPIs (October) 

Thursday, November 17, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The 2022 Cato Institute Summit on Financial Regulation entitled “The Rise of ESG and the Future of Financial Regulation” in Washington DC. Several leading US regulators and industry leaders are expected to speak.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson speeches on “Opportunity and Inclusive Growth” at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute 2022 Institute Research Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Financial Literacy and Education Commission Public Meeting (virtual event)

·       US Housing Starts (October), Building Permits (October), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Initial Jobless claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders/Prices Paid Reports (November), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index and Composite Index (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (November), Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce his medium-term fiscal statement alongside new forecasts for the economy and public finances from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

·       NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly holds its annual session in Madrid, Spain.

·       British Princess Anne to visit the Falkland Islands. This will be the third visit by the Princess and will honor the war dead from the war with Argentina 40 years ago as well as the elevation of Stanley to city status.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       UK Fiscal Statement

·       Italy Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (October), Inflation Rate (October), Construction Output (September), CPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Lebanon to hold its sixth attempt to elect a president after former President Michel Aoun’s term expired on October 31.  The political vacuum is leading to a greater risk of a return to civil war.

·       The 4th Milken Institute Middle East and Africa Summit are held in Abu Dhabi. The theme of the Summit is “Celebrating the Power of Connection” and will focus heavily on digital issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Mozambique GDP (Q3) 

Friday, November 18, 2022: 

Global 

·       The COP27 Summit concludes in Egypt.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Existing House Sales (October), CB Leading Index (October)

·       Canada Raw Material Prices (October), Retail Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October), PPIs (October)

·       Peru Current Account (Q3)

·       Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, and go through November 19.  There are 21 member countries attending, and the theme of the conference is “Open. Connect. Balance.” Neither President Biden nor Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, but Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in place of President Biden.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India Deposit Growth (Week of November 4), FX Reserves (November), Bank Loan Growth (Week of November 4)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU General Council meets to prepare for the European Council meeting on 15-16 December 16, 2022.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 32nd Frankfurt European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       France Unemployment Rate (Q3)

·       UK Retail Sales (October)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Uzbekistan to host the EU-Central Asia Connectivity Conference in Samarkand.

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its annual IISS Manama Dialogue 2022 in Bahrain. EU President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to speak. The Dialogue will feature a large number of regional and US, and EU officials.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Building Permits (September), S&P Rating Assessment released.

Saturday, November 19, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Canada CPIs (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Malaysia holds legislative elections to elect a new Prime Minister. This will be the fourth Prime Minister in the last two years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       Monaco celebrates National Day.

·       The 2021 Rugby League World Cup (men’s and women’s) finals are held in Manchester, UK.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, November 20, 2022:

Global

·       The World Cup begins in Qatar and runs through December 18. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

·       Nepal holds national and provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017. 

·       It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.