The Week Ahead: July 24-31, 2022

This week, the markets are holding their collective breath as the Federal Reserve meets to decide the size of the next rate hike – will it be 75 basis points? Could it be 100? The decision comes as GDP figures are released in the US and across the EU which are likely to tell us if we are actually in recession or about to enter one.

On the geopolitical front, Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov barnstorms across Africa and Asia seeking support and to weaken growing global sanctions on Russia. Simultaneously, the EU’s energy ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting to set energy consumption caps in the face of likely energy shortages this coming winter. And in Washington, the US Senate prepares to vote on a landmark competitiveness bill that could super-charge semiconductor manufacturing and research and development efforts across the US. 

Here is what we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, 24 July 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Green Party holds its annual meeting virtually.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• China to use Long March 5B rocket to launch the second module of their space station.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The turbine needed for maintenance for Nord Stream 1 pipeline is expected to arrive in Russia from Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to address the Arab League in Cairo, Egypt.  He is also expected to visit Egypt, Ethiopia, the Republic of the Congo, and Uganda throughout the week.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 25 July 2022:

Global

• World Trade Organization’s General Council to meet.

• The UN Security Council meets to discuss the mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US President Biden expected to hold a video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping (to be confirmed).

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

• Brazil central bank focus market readout, Current Account (April, May, June), FDI (March-May), consumer confidence (July)

• Mexico economic activity (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo visits Beijing for bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi and Premier Li Keqiang.  Indonesia is chairing the upcoming (November) G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali.  The meeting is expected to focus on the agenda including climate, global inflation, and global security issues.

• Newly elected Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to give first state of the nation address.

• ASEAN Economic Ministers to meet (by video)

• Taiwan’s Army will hold the Han Kuang real artillery exercise – the nation’s largest annual war game.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Thailand export figures (June)

• Singapore CPI (June)

• Taiwan industrial production (June)

• Hong Kong exports/imports/trade balance (June) 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron is to visit Cameroon, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau to discuss food security issues – especially with regard to Russia’s growing relations with Cameroon.

• Uzbekistan to host a two-day conference on Afghanistan.  Approximately 20 countries will participate.

• UK’s Conservative Party Leadership candidates Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss will debate on national television (BBC).

• UK’s Unite union will begin votes on whether to strike at the Liverpool container port, the largest in the nation.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Ifo Business Confidence/Current Conditions/Expectations reports (July)

• UK CBI Industrial Trends Report (July), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Tunisia to vote on a constitutional referendum changing the country from a parliamentary system to a presidential system.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to begin a week-long visit to Venezuela, Argentina, and Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia reports balance of trade (May)

• Turkey Business Confidence Report (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• See above regarding French President Macron’s visit to Cameroon, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau. Otherwise, nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana interest rate decision and presentation of the mid-term budget.

Tuesday, 26 July 2022:

Global

• The UN Security Council holds an open debate on the Middle East.

• Asalha Puja, commemorating Buddha’s first sermon in the Deer Park in Benares, is celebrated by Buddhists around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Senate is expected to begin voting on legislation boosting the American semiconductor industry, the National Science Foundation, and other R&D programs.  Estimated at more than $60 billion dollars, the CHIPs Act is aimed at helping the US better compete with China.

• Cuba celebrates Revolution Day, marking the day Fidel Castro began the armed revolution.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Redbook (July), S&P/Case-Schiller Home Prices (May), House Price Index (May), New Home Sales (June), Consumer Confidence (July), Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Indexes (July),

• Brazil IPCA mid-month CIP (July)

• Canada wholesale sales (June)

• Argentina retail sales (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China industrial profits (June), FDI (June)

• The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its Policy Board meeting.

• South Korea GDP (Q2)

• Singapore industrial production (June)

• Thailand value-added production (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• EU energy ministers to hold an extraordinary energy council meeting to vote on a proposal to bind natural gas consumption cuts by 15 percent in case of an energy supply emergency this fall and winter.

• Scotland’s GMB union votes on whether to strike later this summer over pay.

• The Lambeth Conference, the once every decade meeting of Anglican bishops, begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain PPI’s (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Greece to establish new trade ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Kenyan Presidential debate held in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Seychelles interest rate decision

• South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

• Lesotho interest rate decision

Wednesday, 27 July 2022:

Global

• The Pre-S20 Summit is to be held in Bali, Indonesia in advance of the November G-20 Leaders meeting.

• The UN Security Council holds a briefing on peacebuilding and sustaining peace.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board begins two days of meetings to consider another possible 75 basis point hike; US MBA mortgage figures (July), durable goods orders (June), retail inventories (June), goods trade balance (June)

• Mexico balance of trade (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesian President Joko Widodo to arrive in Tokyo, Japan to discuss the upcoming G-20 meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

• South Korea celebrating the anniversary of the armistice of the Korean War.  North Korea celebrates this date, too, but they claim victory.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May)

• Australia CPIs (Q2)

• South Korea Business Confidence (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• UK’s Aslef union strike ballot closes for train drivers.  Separately, rail workers of the RMT union plan to walk out on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany GfK Consumer Confident (August)

• France Consumer Confidence (July), unemployment figures (June)

• Eurozone Loans to Households (June)

• Italy Consumer Confidence (July)

• Russia's GDP (June),  unemployment rate (June),  real wage growth (May), retail sales (June), industrial production (June), Business Confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kenya interest rate decision

Thursday, 28 July 2022:

Global

• The UN Security Council holds votes on UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus, Central African Republic sanctions, and the UN mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US GDP (Q2), initial jobless claims (July), consumer spending (Q2),

• US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets to discuss findings of the Hedge Fund Working Group, an update from the Council’s climate-related Financial Risk Committee; an update on the report on Responsible Development of Digital Assets; the Office of Financial Research’s work on non-centrally cleared bilateral repo data collection.

• Argentina consumer confidence (July)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)

• Mexico unemployment figures (June)

• Brazil PPIs (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesian President Joko Widodo arrives in Seoul, South Korea for talks with South Korean President Yoom Seok Yeol about the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan CPIs, industrial production, labor force surveys

• Australia retail sales (June), international trade prices (Q2)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Survey (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The two final candidates for the UK’s Tory Party leadership – Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss - face party members in Leeds in the first of a series of party campaign meetings around the country.

• Russia to hold preliminary court hearing to begin dissolving Israeli-backed Jewish Agency inside Russia.

• Separately, Russia begins legal proceedings against WhatsApp and Snapchat for refusing to localize data of Russians.

• The 22nd Commonwealth Games begin in Birmingham, England.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany inflation rate figures (July)

• France PPIs (June)

• Spain retail sales (June), unemployment (Q2), Business Confidence (July)

• Italy industrial sales (May)

• Eurozone economic sentiment (July), consumer confidence (July), consumer inflation expectations (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey MPC meeting summary; inflation report

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zambia inflation data (July), trade balance (June)

• South Africa PPIs (June)

• Kenya announces interest rate decision

Friday, 29 July 2022:

Global

• Islamic New Year (Al-Hijra) 1444 begins.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US consumer spending figures (June), Chicago PMI (July) Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Consumer Expectations/Inflation Expectations Reports(July)

• Canada GDP (May and June)

• Mexico GDP (Q2), fiscal balance (June)

• Brazil's unemployment rate (June) 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Australia set to double foreign investment fees and penalties for purchasing farms, properties, and businesses.

• Japan and the United States hold “2+2 talks” between foreign and commerce ministers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan consumer confidence index (August), new housing starts (July), Bank of Japan summary of opinions, retail sales (June)

• India FX reserves (July)

• South Korea's industrial production (Q2)

• Taiwan GDP (Q2)

• Sri Lanka CPI (July)

• Australia PPIs (Q2), private sector credit

• New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The UK’s Communications Workers Union is set to go on a 24-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France GDP (Q2), inflation figures (July)

• Germany's GDP (Q2), import prices (June), unemployment rate (June)

• Spain GDP figures (Q2), inflation rate (July), current account (May)

• Italy GDP (Q2), inflation rate (July), PPis (June)

• UK mortgage lending (June), Bank of England Consumer Credit (June)

• Eurozone GPD figures (Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey's balance of trade (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa's money supply, trade figures, and budget balance data (all June)

• Kenya inflation figures (July)

• Uganda inflation figures (July)

• Namibia money supply data (June)

• Democratic Republic of Congo S&P Global rating assessment due.

Saturday, 30 July 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China BBS Manufacturing (July), NBS General PMI (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• UK Aslef train drivers at eight rail companies will strike over pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 31 July 2022:

 Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• The 55tth ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS PMI Composite (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Russia celebrates Navy Fleet Day.  President Putin is expected to attend a parade in St. Petersburg.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

• Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal to hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

It didn’t even last 24 hours… Putin breaks newly signed grain deal with missile attack on Odessa

Yesterday afternoon brought news of a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey enabling grain shipments to resume from Ukraine. The deal was seen as going a long way to helping to ease the growing food security crisis. Less than 24 hours later, Russian President Putin broke the deal when four Russian “Kalibr” cruise missiles rained down on the port city of Odessa. Two directly hit Odessa’s port and the other two were shot down by Ukrainian defense forces.

Less than 24 hours had passed since Putin agreed to the deal. Why Russia would break the deal so quickly is still unknown - especially since Moscow’s approval of the deal was something of a small PR win. Now, by so aggressively and wantonly disrespecting the UN (not to mention Turkey), Russia further demonized itself internationally.

But we do see one reason we see for the violation: Russia is making money a lot of money on selling bootleg grains. The attack has set off wild swings in prices and probably will continue to do so for some time. We note wheat prices fell more than 6 percent on the announced deal. Now, they are spiking up again. The benefit to Russia is significant. Since seizing Crimea in 2014 and now significant portions of the Donbas - including Sevastopol — in the last four months, the flow of sanctioned Russian wheat (including wheat stolen in mass quantities from Ukraine by Russian forces) has gone up more than 50 percent.

The UN estimates there are currently 828 million people around the world going hungry of whom an estimated 40-50 million are on the brink of starvation. For Putin, keeping the wheat/grain markets off balance serves two purposes: 1) it helps further fund Putin’s war efforts, and, 2) it puts increased pressure on Western governments to step up to help those countries at most risk for food shortages.

Moreover, considering many of these countries are found in North and Central Africa, the risk of mass migration north across the Mediterranean Sea and into the EU is growing by the day. With the growing list of economic challenges, the EU is already facing due to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, dealing with a mass-migratory crisis would be a significant political and social destabilizing issue.

When the gas gets shut off: Which EU country will get hurt the most

Great chart from the IMF courtesy of Axios. It tells the whole story very neatly:

Why it Matters: Italy’s latest political crisis could result in EU turbulence

We have been watching closely the political crisis in Italy these past few weeks which resulted in Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigning. Italian politics are always complex and at times bewildering. There have been 66 changes of government in Italy since the end of World War II. But this change could be a shock to not only Italy but to the rest of the European Union.

A snap election is to be held on September 25th but polls today show the Brothers of Italy Party with a clear majority. The right-wing party, whose name comes from the Italian national anthem, is led Giorgia Meloni. They have formed a coalition with other right-of-center parties including Forza Italia (led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi) and the Italian League (led by Matteo Salvini) and the populist Five Star Movement. Together, they would form what would be seen as the most conservative - both fiscally and socially — political party in the EU.

If elected, markets should expect a much more disruptive Italy within the EU governance structure, challenging the EU rules over budget and other issues including migration and social issues (including gay rights and abortion). Most investors have become worried Italy carries too much debt now. A Brothers of Italy coalition would not make debt reduction a priority.

If elected, Meloni would become Italy’s first female premier. She has made clear, however, that Italy will continue to support Ukraine in the war effort against Russia.

We will be tracking this election closely and sharing our analysis going forward. Here are the latest polls:

About that polling bounce for Democrats from the Roe v. Wade Reversal…

We have gotten a lot of client questions about the impact of the US Supreme Court’s recent reversal of Roe v. Wade. Several initial polls were showing Congressional Democrats had gained substantially versus Republican challengers heading toward the November elections. But may have faded already: A new poll out Thursday by the Marquette Law School Poll suggests that the pro-choice voter energy that emerged since the leak in early May from the Supreme Court and subsequent official opinion being handed down in July is fading. Moreover, the survey found that “those favoring Roe’s overturning… are more motivated to vote in November.”

The poll - which you can access here — “finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered” by the decision.

The poll also finds an 18 percentage point advantage for Republicans among voters, effectively erasing gains Democrats had gained toward leveling that difference. Let’s see if this holds up in the next three months before the elections.

More Recession Red Lights Flashing: S&P PMIs Disappoint

Quick update: S&P released their Global Flash PMIs this morning - including the US Composite PMI. The July numbers were not good, coming in at 47.5, hitting a 26-month low and down from 52.3 in June.

New orders did expand during July following a contraction in June, but it was only a modest expansion. Overall, this is concerning deterioration in the overall US economy and may suggest we are either in are entering a tougher recessionary period than anticipated - all of which is coupled with rising inflation.

The political impact? One more hammer blow to Democrats trying to hold onto control of Congress in November.

You can access the full S&P report here.

The Global Week Ahead: July 17 - 24, 2022

The Week Ahead: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to adversely impact the global political and economic scene; A growing number of African nations are seeking assistance from the IMF as they begin to suffer from the reverberations of the war.  And President Putin meets with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts in Tehran to discuss Syria and Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to dominate the geopolitical and global economic agenda.  The EU Foreign Affairs Ministers meet this week to discuss the current situation in Ukraine as President Putin flies to Tehran to ostensibly discuss the security situation in Syria with the Presidents of Turkey and Iran – but Ukraine will clearly be a major topic, especially with the news this past week of Iran selling advanced military drones to Russia.   Meanwhile, the economic shocks from the war are being felt in a number of countries – particularly African nations.  There are a number of important meetings this week regarding IMF assistance in the face of growing food and fuel shortages as well as growing inflation.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday,17 July 2022:

Global:

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• China and India are expected to hold the 16th corps commander-level talks regarding border tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Putin holds a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 18 July  2022:

Global:

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• The High Court in London will resume consideration of a long-running battle between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó over control of almost $2 billion of gold reserves held in the Bank of England.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to hold a telephone call with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NAHB Housing Market Index (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• India holds an indirect election of the president of both houses of parliament (by elected members), the elected members of the 29 states, and the elected members of the Union Territories of Delhi and Puducherry.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China FDI (June)

• Singapore NODX (June)

• South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin to visit Japan in an effort to strengthen ties.

• Australia’s RBA meeting minutes

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The EU foreign affairs ministers are scheduled to meet to discuss the status of the Ukrainian War.

• The EU Agricultura and Fisheries Council meet to discuss market conditions in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Germany hosts the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin.

• The UK is expected to see widespread strikes continue across the country.  Criminal barristers in England and Wales strike for the 5th week, bus drivers and engineers are expected to strike, as are large numbers of the Royal Mail management.

• The Farnborough Airshow begins.  Known as one of the premier global aerospace events, it returns for the first time in four years due to COVID.

• The famed Salzburg Festival begins in Austria.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and UK Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi will speak at the Mansion House City Banquet for financial and professional services executives.

• Italy's balance of trade (May)

• Spain's balance of trade (May)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey's budget balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane will meet to discuss debt restructuring under a G-20 common framework.  The IMF had approved a package in 2021 but because the country’s numerous creditors could not agree on accepting it, which they now have.

• Tanzania’s requestion to the IMF for a three-year arrangement under the extended credit facility is to be discussed.

• The IMF will also review Kenya’s request for waivers from certain loan conditions.

Tuesday, 19 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is in session this week where the US Senate is expected to begin consideration of a new CHIPS Act (semiconductors).

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speech;  housing starts (June), Redbook (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia’s ride-hailing drivers begin three-day strike in Batam as they seek better working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Hong Kong unemployment rate (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK unemployment rate (May), average earnings (May)

• Eurozone construction output (May), inflation rate (June), CPIs (June), Core Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Turkish President Recep Tahyip Erdogan meet in Tehran to discuss stability operations in Syria.

• Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Hajj opens up registration for Umrah pilgrimage.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

• South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, 20 July 2022:

Global:

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Colombia’s new Congress takes office as the nation celebrates its independence with a national holiday.

• The US commemorates the 53rd anniversary of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landing on the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA 30-year mortgage rate (July), existing home sales (June)

• Canada inflation rate (June), CPIs (June), raw materials prices (June)

• Argentina balance of trade (June), economic activity (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Sri Lanka will hold an election for a new president and prime minister after angry crowds chased President Gotabaya  Rajapaka and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe out of office (Rajapaka fled the country and is reportedly in Singapore).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan export/import/trade balance (June), Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report

• Malaysia export/import/balance of trade figures (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The Conservative Party in the UK is expected to hold a final round of voting for party leadership and a new prime minister.

• Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi is expected to address the parliament where he may call for a vote of confidence to see whether he still has a majority.  If he does not, parliamentarians will have to decide whether to hold early elections or appoint a new prime minister.

• The EU is expected to issue new guidelines for the reduction of natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany PPIs (June)

• UK inflation rate (June), retail price index (June), PPIs (June)

• Eurozone consumer confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa inflation figures (June)

• Ghana PPIs (June)

• The IMF meets to discuss assistance to Burandi 

Thursday, 21 July 2022:

Global:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) holds an emergency meeting on the spread of monkeypox.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Paraguay hosts the Mercosur Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Conference Board Leading Index (June)

• Mexico retail sales (May)

• Canada new housing price index (June)

• Brazil federal tax revenues (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan interest rate decision,  CPIs (June), inflation rate figures (June), Jibun Bank PMIs (July)

• Hong Kong CPIs (June)

• South Korea PPIs (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Planned maintenance of Nord Stream I Pipeline is to conclude.  Whether it will actually reopen is another in question.

• Belgium celebrates its national day.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB interest rate decision and press conference

• France business confidence (July)

• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey central bank interest rate decision,

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa’s central bank interest rate decision is announced; The Bureau for Economic Research to release Inflation Expectation Survey

Friday, 22 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PMIs (July)

• Argentina leading indicators (June)

• Mexico inflation rate (July)

• Canada retail sales (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan manufacturing PMIs (June)

• India FX reserves (July)

• Taiwan unemployment rate (June)

• Thailand exports (June)

• Malaysia CPIs (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK retail sales (June), PMIs (July)

• France PMIs (July)

• Germany PMIs (July), Bundesbank monthly report

• Eurozone PMIs (July)

• Russia Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• The World Court in the Hague is expected to rule on whether it has jurisdiction to hear a complaint brough by the Gambia against the rulers of Myanmar for alleged genocide against its Rohingya Muslim Minority.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eswatini interest rate decision.

Saturday, 23 July 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Egypt celebrates its National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 24 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro officially launches his presidential candidacy for the Liberal Party.  The elections are in October.

• Pope Francis begins visit to Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Spain celebrates the feast of St. James the Apostle in Santiago de Compestela, where the famed trail is completed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

 Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: June 25 - July 2, 2022

A Seminal Moment in NATO’s History; Central Bankers Gather to Discuss… Central Banking.  And Will We See China’s President Xi Travel to Hong Kong for the 25th Anniversary of the Handover?

June 25 - July 2, 2022

NATO will hold its annual summit in Spain this week – arguably the most important summit held in decades – as it will be closely watched to see how well the alliance holds together in supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia.  This comes after a two-day G-7 meeting in Germany where much of the political and economic coordination will be laid out for dealing with Russia’s aggression going forward.

Also this week, President Xi is expected to travel to Hong Kong for the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover to China as well as the inauguration of John Lee as the new Administrator of the island (but this may be canceled as two of Lee’s top aides came down with COVID).  If Xi does make the trip, it will be the first time he has left the mainland since January 2020.

Finally, this is going to be a big week for central bankers as many of them gather for the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking.  In particular, we will be closely watching a panel on Thursday where ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustín Carstens, and Fed Chair Jay Powell will appear together to discuss policy coordination.  Here is what we are keeping our eyes on this coming week:

Sunday, June 26, 2022:

Global

• The G-7 Summit is to be held at the Elmau Schloss (Bavarian Alps, Germany.  It is expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend either in person or virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden is in Europe this week to attend the G-7 meeting in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodia to announce final results of Cambodia’s National Election Committee’s count of June 5th communal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China industrial profits figures (May)

• Japan’s Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Italy to hold a second round of local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Russia expected to default on its foreign debt – the first time the country has done so since 1918.  Russia was expected to pay $100 million in dollars and euros to bondholders.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• The UN Security Council meets to discuss its mission in South Sudan.

• In a ceremony in Brussels, the Belgium government plans to return a tooth of assassinated former Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba to his family.

• The East African Community meets to discuss a potential joint force to deal with security issues in the Eastern Republic of the Congo.

Economic Reports/Events

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 27, 2022:

Global

• The UN Ocean Conference will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is out of session for the July 4th holiday and returns on July 11.

• The Wall Street Journal holds a Global Food Forum to discuss a wide variety of topics, particularly the growing food security crisis globally as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US durable goods orders (May), non-defense goods (May), Pending Home Sales (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

• Brazil central bank minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Coincident Index (Apr), Leading Economic Index (Apr)

• Thailand exports/imports (May)

• Hong Kong Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to adopt gas storage regulations.

• The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins.  All Russian players have been banned from playing.

• UK lawyers who are members of the Criminal Bar Association are expected to go on strike over disputes over funding of criminal defense trials.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (June 27-29).  ECB President Lagard to speak.

• Spain PPI (May

• France unemployment figures (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Israel’s Knesset can officially dissolve starting on this day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing of significance to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• African Union Annual Small and Medium Enterprise Forum held in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 28, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US will see election primaries and run-off races in Colorado, New York, Illinois, Utah, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Mississippi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US goods trade balance (May), wholesale and retail inventories (May), Redbook (Jun), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (Apr), CB Consumer Confidence (Jun), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Jun), Dallas Fed Services Index (Jun)

• Brazil banking lending (Mar)

• Argentina's current account (Q1)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea's consumer confidence (Jun)

• Japan retail sales (May)

• Australia retail sales (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• EU Environmental Council meets to reach a consensus on deforestation.

• France’s newly-elected National Assembly holds its first session.

• Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to lay out her detailed plan for a second independence referendum.

• Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day marking the anniversary of the signing of its constitution in 1996.

• The Parliamentary Speaker of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republican to speak before Russia’s Parliament (Duma).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• France Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• Italy Industrial Sales (Apr) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia private bank lending (May) 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Seychelles interest rate decision

• South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1 

Wednesday, June 29, 2022:

Global

• The NATO Summit will begin in Madrid, Spain (June 29-30) 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The UN Human Rights Council meets to discuss human rights in Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell to speak (virtually) on a panel with ECB President Lagarde as part of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (see a link to the event above).

• US GDP (Q1), Core PCE Prices (Q1), retail consumer spending (Q1), MBA mortgage applications (Jun)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

• Japan consumer confidence (Jun), industrial production (May)

• South Korea's industrial production (May), retail sales (May), construction output (May), manufacturing production (May)

• Vietnam GDP (Q2), CPI (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), Industrial Output (Jun), Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (Jun)

• Thailand Value Added Production (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The Committee on Climate Change in the UK to release their 2022 progress report to Parliament which will assess the UK’s chances of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

• Turkmenistan to host Caspian Summit in Ashgabat.  Russian President Putin is expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone economic confidence (Jun), Industrial Confidence (Jun), Services Confidence (Jun)

• Germany CPIs (Jun)

• Spain retail sales (May), CPI (Jun), business confidence (Jun)

• Russia GDP (May), unemployment rate (May), real wage growth (Apr), business confidence (Apr), industrial production (May), retail sales (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey's economic confidence (Jun)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa's consumer confidence (Q2)

Thursday, June 30, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US initial jobless claims (Jun), Chicago PMI (Jun), personal income & spending figures (May), PCE Price Index (May)

• Canada GDP (Apr), CFIB business barometer (Jun)

• Brazil's unemployment rate (May), nominal budget balance (May)

• Argentina economic activity

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow.

• Philippine President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. to be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS PMI Composite (Jun)

• Japan housing starts (May), construction orders (May), unemployment rate (May), CPIs (Jun), Tankan indexes (Q2)

• Hong Kong retail sales (May)

• Sri Lanka CPI (Jun)

• South Korea's industrial production (May), Service Industry Output (May), exports/imports/balance of trade (Jun)

• India infrastructure output (May), external debt (Q1)

• Indonesia S&P global manufacturing PMI (Jun) 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Putin to attend 9th Russia-Belarus Forum in Grodno, Belarus.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Import Price Index (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)

• Italy PPIs (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)

• Spain's current account balance (Apr)

• France CPIs (Jun), PPIs (Jun)

• UK current account (Q1), GDP (Q1), business investment (Q1)

• Swedish interest rate decision

• Eurozone unemployment rate (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia hosts OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting

• Turkey balance of trade (May), MPC meeting summary, FX reserves (Jun)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Sudan’s pro-democracy parties to hold a March of Millions to protest against the military junta.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa's money supply, private credit, PPIs, trade balance, and budget balance (all for May)

• Kenya inflation figures (Jun)

• Kenya GDP (Q1)

• Mauritius  GDP (Q1)

• Namibia GDP (Q1), money supply (May)

• Botswana GDP (Q1)

• Zambia GDP (Q1), trade balance (May)

Friday, July 1, 2022:

Global

• Brazil takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council in July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Canada Day is celebrated marking the formation of the Union of the British North American provinces in 1868.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun), ISM manufacturing prices (Jun), construction spending (May)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (Jun), industrial production (May), PPIs (May), the balance of trade (Jun)

• Mexico business confidence (Jun), FX reserves (May) 

Asia:

• Political/Social Events –

• Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Hong Kong for the 25th anniversary of the handover from the UK to China as well as attend John Lee’s inauguration as chief executive.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin PMI (Jun)

• Taiwan Markit PMI (Jun)

• Thailand Markit PMI (Jun)

• Malaysia Markit PMI (Jun)

• Vietnam Market PMI (Jun)

• Philippines Markit PMI (Jun)

• India Markit PMI (Jun), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (Jun)

• Indonesia Markit PMI (Jun), FX Reserves (Jun)

• South Korea Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (June), Markit PMI (Jun)

• Australia commodity prices (Jun)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The Czech Republic assumes the six-month presidency of the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Italy S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), inflation figures (Jun)

• France S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), budget balance (May)

• Germany S&P/BME Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), CPI estimate (Jun)

• Russia S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

• UK nationwide housing prices (Jun), mortgage approvals (May), BoE consumer credit (May), S&P/CIPS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMIs (Jun) 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Nigeria PMI (Jun)

Saturday, July 2, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• UFO Day takes place in Roswell, New Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China industrial profits (May)

• Japan Bank of Japan summary of opinions

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa’s African National Congress Party to hold elective provisional conference.

• Mozambique celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Week Ahead: EU To Lay Out Path for Membership for Ukraine, Moldavia, and Georgia; The Fed, Other Leading Central Banks Set to Raise Rates

Global Political and Economic Calendar for June 12 - 19, 2022

This week, we are closely watching as the EU begins to formally look at possible EU membership for Ukraine, Moldva, and Georgia. Also this week, Russian President Putin speaks publicly twice - Sunday in an address to the nation on the anniversary of “Russia Day” and later this week at the St. Petersburg International Econmic Forum. Also this week, the US Federal Reserve as well as the Central Bank of Japan and the British Central Bank are set to raise rates in a bid to stave off rising inflation. There is a host of important economic economic data this week - particularly in Germany, France, the US and other leading economies which will give us a better handle on the rise of inflation and growth overall. Here is everything we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 12, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• World Trade Organization (WTO) to hold its first ministerial conference in four years.

• Japan’s and China’s defense ministers to meet at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

• France holds the first round of legislative elections.

• Italy holds administrative elections and referendum on repealing five judicial laws or decrees.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to give a national address to the nation on the anniversary of Russia Day.

• EU’s Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) to meet in Geneva.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Nothing to report.

Asia:

• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q2)

• India passenger vehicle sales (May)

Europe:

• Nothing to report.

Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Monday, June 13, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin to meet with US Secretary of State Tony Blinken in Washington DC.

• EU Commission President von der Leyen to visit Egypt and Israel (June 13/14).

• US Climate Envoy John Kerry to meet with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico.

• EU’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council to meet in Luxembourg to discuss fishing rights and issues related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Bennett and then with Palestinian Representatives regarding the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian territorial disputes (Jerusalem and then Ramallah)

• The Philippines celebrates Independence Day.

• The UK government expected to present legislation on unilaterally revising the Northern Ireland Protocol to the House of Commons, London.

• Egypt’s Criminal Court begins the trial of several prominent human rights activists in Cairo.

• France hosts the Eurosatory Defense Industry Exhibition in Paris.

• The Africa CEO Forum takes place in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

 Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (May), Fed Vice Chair Brainard Speech

• Brazil Central Bank Market Readout

Asia:

• India Inflation Rate (May)

• New Zealand migration figures

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (May), House Price Index (Q1),

Europe:

• UK GDP (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)< Construction Output (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr) Manufacturing Production (Apr), Goods Trade Balance (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr)

• Spain consumer confidence (Apr)

Middle East:

• Turkey Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Current Account (Apr)

Africa:

• South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (Apr & May)

• Botswana inflation figures

Tuesday, June 14, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The UK expected to begin deporting the first group of Rwandan migrants.

• EU Parliament to hold Environmental and Economic Committee meetings on new criteria for “Green Label” of energy (e.g., will this include natural gas and nuclear or not).

• EU’s Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Committee to meet (through June 16th) to discuss the EU’s global health policy.

• US primaries are to be held in Main, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

• 40th anniversary of Argentina’s surrender in the Falklands War.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Core PPIs (May), NFIB Business Optimism Index (May), Redbook (Jun)

• Brazil Business Confidence (Jun)

• Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

Asia:

• China Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment (May), Foreign Direct Investment (May)

• Japan Industrial Production (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Apr), Reuters Tankan Index (Jun), Machinery Orders (Apr)

• South Korea Unemployment figures (May)

• India WPI Inflation (May)

• Australia household spending (May); NAB business conditions (May); Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• New Zealand food prices (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)

• Germany Inflation Rate (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)

• UK Unemployment figures/earning averages (Apr)

Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia reports OPEC Monthly Report

Africa:

• Tanzania 2022-2023 budget presentations

• Uganda 2022-23 budget presentations

Wednesday, June 15, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• European Commission may present recommendations on the candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia for membership in the EU.

• Ukraine Defense Contact Group (made up of defense ministers of countries supplying military aid to Ukraine) to meet.

• Saudi diplomatic delegation visits Washington to discuss possible US Presidential visit to Saudi Arabia. We could see an announcement this week of President Biden’s intention to travel to the Kingdom.

• 9th World Congress of Oceans to be held in Singapore (through June 17th).

• Czech Republic to present political agenda for the upcoming presidency of the EU Council.

• Russia, Turkey, and Iran hold the 18th “Astana Process” meeting to monitor Syria’s ceasefire.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2:00 p.m.), Retail Sales (May), Import Prices/export Prices (May), Business Inventories (Apr), NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun); Retail Inventories (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank interest rate decision, IBC-BR Economic Activity (Mar)

Asia:

• China House Price Index (May)

• Australia consumer sentiment (Jun), Unemployment rate (May)

• New Zealand current account balance (Q1)

• Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May),

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Apr), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• South Korea Import Prices/Export Prices (May)

Europe:

• ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the London School of Economics.

• Eurogroup Meeting

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

• France Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)

• Turkey Budget Balance (May)d

Africa:

• South Africa's retail sales

• Kenya fuel prices

• Nigerian inflation figures

• Namibia inflation figures, Central Bank interest rate decision

Thursday, June 16, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are planning to visit in-person Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine.

• United Nations Security Council discusses the situation in Haiti.

• Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to discuss Pakistan’s status.

• Egypt hosts the East Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo.

• India hosts Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers commemorating the 30th anniversary of relations between India and ASEAN.

• The US Treasury holds its inaugural Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) Conference.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Housing Starts (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun), Jobless Claims (Jun),

• Canada Wholesale Sales (Apr)

Asia:

• Japan Central Bank interest rate decision

• Australia consumer inflation expectations (Jun); Labor force figures (May)

• New Zealand GDP (Q1)

Europe:

• Eurozone finance ministers to meet to discuss Exchange Rate Mechanism II, digital euro, fiscal rules reform, and banking union in Brussels.

• Eurozone Labour Cost Index (Q1), Wage Growth (Q1)

• UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• Italy Inflation figures (May)

• Spain Balance of Trade (Apr)

• Russia GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Middle East:

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves, Auto Production (Jun)

• Africa:

• Botswana’s Central Bank interest rate decision 

Friday, June 17, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Japan is scheduled to implement a ban on all Russian heavy-duty equipment being sold in Japan.

• Russian President Putin to speak at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

• EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council to meet in Brussels to discuss Solvency II, the Pillar 2 Directive, and other issues.

• Nigerian presidential candidates are required to submit the names of their running mates.

• The feast of Corpus Christi is celebrated in Catholic Church worldwide and in other western churches.

• Iceland celebrates its national day.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell Speech, US industrial Production (May), Manufacturing Production (May), CB Leading Index (May)

• Canada PPIs (May),  Raw Materials Prices (May)

Asia:

• India Deposit Growth (Jun), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Jun)

• New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (May)

• Europe:

• EcoFin Meeting

• Eurozone Inflation Rate (May), CPI (May)

• Italy Construction Output (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)

• Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Bloomberg South Africa Economic Survey released. 

Saturday, June 18, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Nothing to report.

Asia:

• Nothing to report.

Europe:

• Nothing to report.

Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Sunday, June 19, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Colombia to hold its presidential runoff election.

• France holds run-off legislative elections.

• Celebration of Juneteenth (emancipation of slaves) in the US.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Americas:

• Nothing to report.

• Asia:

• China Loan Prime Rate (Jun)

• Europe:

• Nothing to report.

• Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

• Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Global Calendar June 5 - 12, 2022

This is going to be a very busy week around the world. A number of critical geopolitical meetings, summits, and dialogues are scheduled. Of particular note, Presidential leaders from the Western Hemisphere will gather Monday through Wednesday in Los Angeles for the Summit of the Americas (although a number of them are threatening to not attend unless the heads of state of Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba are invited to the Summit). Indo-Pacific defense policy will be discussed and debated at the Shangrila Dialogue in Singapore - and where a possible first-of-its-kind sideline meeting between the US and Chinese defense heads could occur. Economically, we will be watching the ECB’s decision on rates (Thursday) and important economic data out of China and the US over the course of the week. Here are the key geopolitical and economic events and reports we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 5, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• NATO begins the Ramstein Legacy 2022 military exercise.

• US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman begins a 10-day visit to South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos to discuss Indo-Pacific security issues.

• Kazakhstan holds a referendum on constitutional changes.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 6, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Summit of the Americas takes place in Los Angeles, California.  Regional Presidents will gather on Wednesday to meet.

• European Parliament plenary session in Strasbourg, France (all week).

• Six Mexican states hold gubernatorial and local elections.

• Chilean President Gabriel Boric holds bilateral talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa.

• Nigeria’s ruling APC starts voting for a presidential candidate.

• The US Congress returns to session after being off last week for Memorial Day.

• The House January 6th Committee begins to hold its first public hearings.

• US National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly, and other senior US intelligence/Cybersecurity leaders will speak at the RSA Conference in San Francisco (Monday through Thursday).

• The UN Security Council holds a meeting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors will meet in Vienna, Austria to discuss Iran, North Korea, Syria, and other areas of concern.

• South Korea observers Memorial Day in honor of those who died during the Korean War.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (Mar)

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

Asia:

• China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (May)

• South Korea FX Reserves (May)

• Japan Overtime Pay (Apr), Household Spending (Apr)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May), ANZ Job Advertisements (May), Ai Group Services Index (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• UK New Car Sales (May); BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)

• Middle East:

• Nothing significant to report.

• Africa:

• Uganda PMIs (May)

• Kenya PMIs (May)

Tuesday, June 7, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Belgium’s King Philippe and Queen Mathilde visit the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Royal couple is expected to offer an apology to the Congolese people for Belgium’s colonial past.

• South Korea’s unionized freight workers are expected to hold nationwide strikes.

• Sweden’s Parliament to hold a no-confidence vote against Justice Minister Morgan Johannson over his handling of gang violence.  Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said she will resign if Johannson receives a no-confidence vote.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Vilnius, Lithuania to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

• The Ivory Coast to elect a new President of their National Assembly.

• Primary elections are being held in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (Apr), Redbook (Jun), LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)

• Canada Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (Apr), Ivey PMIs (May)

• Brazil Car Production (May)

Asia:

• China FX Reserves (May)

• Japan GDP (Q1), Current Account (Apr), GDP Price Index (Q1), Leading Economic Index (Apr), Coincident Index (Apr)

• South Korea GDP (Q1)

• Australia Building Permits (Apr), Private House Approvals (Apr)

Europe:

• Germany Factor Orders (Apr), S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• Spain Industrial Production (Apr), Consumer Confidence (May)

• France S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• Italy S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIs (May)

• Russia FX Reserves (May)

• Middle East:

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

• Africa:

• South Africa FX Reserves (May), GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

• Seychelles inflation figures (May)

Wednesday, June 8, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The Summit of the Americas will today host a meeting of regional presidents in Los Angeles, California.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Turkey for talks regarding grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

• US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen to testify on the President’s proposed 2023 budget before the House Ways & Means Committee where she will likely field a number of questions about the economy.

• The trial of former Fifa President Sepp Blatter and ex-Uefa Chief Michel Platini begins in the Swiss Federal Criminal Court.

Economic Reports/Events:

Global:

• The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) publishes its 2022 World Economic Outlook.

Americas:

• US MBA Mortgage Applications/30-year Mortgage Rate/Refinance Index/Mortgage Market Index (June); Wholesale Inventories (Apr), EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks (Jun)

• Brazil Net Payrolls (Apr)

Asia:

• India Central Bank Rate Decision; Cash Reserve Ratio

• Japan Eco Watchers Survey (May)

• South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (May), Central Bank Chart Pack

• Indonesia FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone GDP Growth Rate (Q1), Employment Change (Q1)

• Germany Industrial Production (Apr)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (May), RICS House Price Balance (May), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMIs (May)

• France Balance of Trade/Current Account/Exports/Imports (Apr), FX Reserves (May)

• Italy Retail Sales (Apr)

• Russia Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East:

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

• South Africa current account (May), SACCI Business Confidence figures (both Apr. and May)

Thursday, June 9, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin to lead the celebration of the 350th anniversary of Peter of the Great in St. Petersburg, Russia.

• Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor Riad Salemeh’s trial for bribery begins in Beirut.

• Thailand official legalizes marijuana and begins to give away more than one million marijuana plants to citizens.

• EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg.

• EU Competitiveness Council meeting.

• US SpaceX Cargo Dragon launches from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida to resupply the International Space Station.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Initial Jobless Claims (Jun), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (Jun)

• Mexico Inflation Rate (May)

• Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

• Argentina Industrial Production (Apr)

Asia:

• China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• Japan PPIs (May), Machine Tool Orders (May)

• South Korea Current Account (Apr)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe:

• European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

• France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

• UK BBA Mortgage Rate (May)d

• Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (Apr)

Africa:

• South Africa Current Account (Q1), Gold Production/Mining Production (Apr), Business Confidence (Q2), Manufacturing Production (Apr),

Friday, June 10, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The Shangri-La Dialogue is to be held in Singapore where US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe may for the first time in sideline meetings.

• The OECD International Economic Forum on Africa is held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas

• US Inflation Figures (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun), WASDE Report, Monthly Budget Statement (May)

• Canada Employment Figures (May), Capacity Utilization (Q1)

• Mexico Industrial Production (Apr)

• Brazil Retail Sales (Apr)

Asia:

• China Inflation Rate (May), PPIs (May)

• India Industrial Production/Manufacturing Production (Apr), FX Reserves (Jun), Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun), HIA New Homes Sales (May)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (Apr)

Europe:

• France Private non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

• Spain Inflation Rates (May)
  Italy Industrial Production (Apr)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East:

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (Apr), Auto Production (May)

Africa:

• Rwanda inflation figures (May)

• Uganda S&P Global ratings

Saturday, June 11, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The Financial Action Task Force holds their Conference on Digital Transformation in Berlin, Germany.

• Papua New Guinea holds general elections.

• UK Fashion Week begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Nothing to report.

Asia:

• China Vehicles Sales (May), New Yuan Loans (May), Total Social Financing (May)

Europe:

• Nothing to report.

Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Sunday, June 12, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• World Trade Organization holds its Ministerial Conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

• France holds National Assembly elections (through June 19th).

• Meeting of G-7 Science Ministers in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Italy holds municipal elections.

• Russia Day is scheduled to be commemorated in Russia in honor of the country’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.