More Recession Red Lights Flashing: S&P PMIs Disappoint

Quick update: S&P released their Global Flash PMIs this morning - including the US Composite PMI. The July numbers were not good, coming in at 47.5, hitting a 26-month low and down from 52.3 in June.

New orders did expand during July following a contraction in June, but it was only a modest expansion. Overall, this is concerning deterioration in the overall US economy and may suggest we are either in are entering a tougher recessionary period than anticipated - all of which is coupled with rising inflation.

The political impact? One more hammer blow to Democrats trying to hold onto control of Congress in November.

You can access the full S&P report here.

The Global Week Ahead: July 17 - 24, 2022

The Week Ahead: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to adversely impact the global political and economic scene; A growing number of African nations are seeking assistance from the IMF as they begin to suffer from the reverberations of the war.  And President Putin meets with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts in Tehran to discuss Syria and Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to dominate the geopolitical and global economic agenda.  The EU Foreign Affairs Ministers meet this week to discuss the current situation in Ukraine as President Putin flies to Tehran to ostensibly discuss the security situation in Syria with the Presidents of Turkey and Iran – but Ukraine will clearly be a major topic, especially with the news this past week of Iran selling advanced military drones to Russia.   Meanwhile, the economic shocks from the war are being felt in a number of countries – particularly African nations.  There are a number of important meetings this week regarding IMF assistance in the face of growing food and fuel shortages as well as growing inflation.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday,17 July 2022:

Global:

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• China and India are expected to hold the 16th corps commander-level talks regarding border tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Putin holds a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 18 July  2022:

Global:

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• The High Court in London will resume consideration of a long-running battle between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó over control of almost $2 billion of gold reserves held in the Bank of England.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to hold a telephone call with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NAHB Housing Market Index (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• India holds an indirect election of the president of both houses of parliament (by elected members), the elected members of the 29 states, and the elected members of the Union Territories of Delhi and Puducherry.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China FDI (June)

• Singapore NODX (June)

• South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin to visit Japan in an effort to strengthen ties.

• Australia’s RBA meeting minutes

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The EU foreign affairs ministers are scheduled to meet to discuss the status of the Ukrainian War.

• The EU Agricultura and Fisheries Council meet to discuss market conditions in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Germany hosts the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin.

• The UK is expected to see widespread strikes continue across the country.  Criminal barristers in England and Wales strike for the 5th week, bus drivers and engineers are expected to strike, as are large numbers of the Royal Mail management.

• The Farnborough Airshow begins.  Known as one of the premier global aerospace events, it returns for the first time in four years due to COVID.

• The famed Salzburg Festival begins in Austria.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and UK Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi will speak at the Mansion House City Banquet for financial and professional services executives.

• Italy's balance of trade (May)

• Spain's balance of trade (May)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey's budget balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane will meet to discuss debt restructuring under a G-20 common framework.  The IMF had approved a package in 2021 but because the country’s numerous creditors could not agree on accepting it, which they now have.

• Tanzania’s requestion to the IMF for a three-year arrangement under the extended credit facility is to be discussed.

• The IMF will also review Kenya’s request for waivers from certain loan conditions.

Tuesday, 19 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is in session this week where the US Senate is expected to begin consideration of a new CHIPS Act (semiconductors).

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speech;  housing starts (June), Redbook (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia’s ride-hailing drivers begin three-day strike in Batam as they seek better working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Hong Kong unemployment rate (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK unemployment rate (May), average earnings (May)

• Eurozone construction output (May), inflation rate (June), CPIs (June), Core Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Turkish President Recep Tahyip Erdogan meet in Tehran to discuss stability operations in Syria.

• Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Hajj opens up registration for Umrah pilgrimage.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

• South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

Wednesday, 20 July 2022:

Global:

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Colombia’s new Congress takes office as the nation celebrates its independence with a national holiday.

• The US commemorates the 53rd anniversary of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landing on the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US MBA 30-year mortgage rate (July), existing home sales (June)

• Canada inflation rate (June), CPIs (June), raw materials prices (June)

• Argentina balance of trade (June), economic activity (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Sri Lanka will hold an election for a new president and prime minister after angry crowds chased President Gotabaya  Rajapaka and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe out of office (Rajapaka fled the country and is reportedly in Singapore).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan export/import/trade balance (June), Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report

• Malaysia export/import/balance of trade figures (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The Conservative Party in the UK is expected to hold a final round of voting for party leadership and a new prime minister.

• Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi is expected to address the parliament where he may call for a vote of confidence to see whether he still has a majority.  If he does not, parliamentarians will have to decide whether to hold early elections or appoint a new prime minister.

• The EU is expected to issue new guidelines for the reduction of natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany PPIs (June)

• UK inflation rate (June), retail price index (June), PPIs (June)

• Eurozone consumer confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa inflation figures (June)

• Ghana PPIs (June)

• The IMF meets to discuss assistance to Burandi 

Thursday, 21 July 2022:

Global:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) holds an emergency meeting on the spread of monkeypox.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Paraguay hosts the Mercosur Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Conference Board Leading Index (June)

• Mexico retail sales (May)

• Canada new housing price index (June)

• Brazil federal tax revenues (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan interest rate decision,  CPIs (June), inflation rate figures (June), Jibun Bank PMIs (July)

• Hong Kong CPIs (June)

• South Korea PPIs (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Planned maintenance of Nord Stream I Pipeline is to conclude.  Whether it will actually reopen is another in question.

• Belgium celebrates its national day.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB interest rate decision and press conference

• France business confidence (July)

• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey central bank interest rate decision,

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa’s central bank interest rate decision is announced; The Bureau for Economic Research to release Inflation Expectation Survey

Friday, 22 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PMIs (July)

• Argentina leading indicators (June)

• Mexico inflation rate (July)

• Canada retail sales (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan manufacturing PMIs (June)

• India FX reserves (July)

• Taiwan unemployment rate (June)

• Thailand exports (June)

• Malaysia CPIs (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK retail sales (June), PMIs (July)

• France PMIs (July)

• Germany PMIs (July), Bundesbank monthly report

• Eurozone PMIs (July)

• Russia Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• The World Court in the Hague is expected to rule on whether it has jurisdiction to hear a complaint brough by the Gambia against the rulers of Myanmar for alleged genocide against its Rohingya Muslim Minority.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eswatini interest rate decision.

Saturday, 23 July 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Egypt celebrates its National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 24 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

• Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro officially launches his presidential candidacy for the Liberal Party.  The elections are in October.

• Pope Francis begins visit to Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Spain celebrates the feast of St. James the Apostle in Santiago de Compestela, where the famed trail is completed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

 Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: June 25 - July 2, 2022

A Seminal Moment in NATO’s History; Central Bankers Gather to Discuss… Central Banking.  And Will We See China’s President Xi Travel to Hong Kong for the 25th Anniversary of the Handover?

June 25 - July 2, 2022

NATO will hold its annual summit in Spain this week – arguably the most important summit held in decades – as it will be closely watched to see how well the alliance holds together in supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia.  This comes after a two-day G-7 meeting in Germany where much of the political and economic coordination will be laid out for dealing with Russia’s aggression going forward.

Also this week, President Xi is expected to travel to Hong Kong for the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover to China as well as the inauguration of John Lee as the new Administrator of the island (but this may be canceled as two of Lee’s top aides came down with COVID).  If Xi does make the trip, it will be the first time he has left the mainland since January 2020.

Finally, this is going to be a big week for central bankers as many of them gather for the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking.  In particular, we will be closely watching a panel on Thursday where ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustín Carstens, and Fed Chair Jay Powell will appear together to discuss policy coordination.  Here is what we are keeping our eyes on this coming week:

Sunday, June 26, 2022:

Global

• The G-7 Summit is to be held at the Elmau Schloss (Bavarian Alps, Germany.  It is expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend either in person or virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden is in Europe this week to attend the G-7 meeting in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodia to announce final results of Cambodia’s National Election Committee’s count of June 5th communal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China industrial profits figures (May)

• Japan’s Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Italy to hold a second round of local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Russia expected to default on its foreign debt – the first time the country has done so since 1918.  Russia was expected to pay $100 million in dollars and euros to bondholders.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• The UN Security Council meets to discuss its mission in South Sudan.

• In a ceremony in Brussels, the Belgium government plans to return a tooth of assassinated former Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba to his family.

• The East African Community meets to discuss a potential joint force to deal with security issues in the Eastern Republic of the Congo.

Economic Reports/Events

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 27, 2022:

Global

• The UN Ocean Conference will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is out of session for the July 4th holiday and returns on July 11.

• The Wall Street Journal holds a Global Food Forum to discuss a wide variety of topics, particularly the growing food security crisis globally as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US durable goods orders (May), non-defense goods (May), Pending Home Sales (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

• Brazil central bank minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Coincident Index (Apr), Leading Economic Index (Apr)

• Thailand exports/imports (May)

• Hong Kong Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to adopt gas storage regulations.

• The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins.  All Russian players have been banned from playing.

• UK lawyers who are members of the Criminal Bar Association are expected to go on strike over disputes over funding of criminal defense trials.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (June 27-29).  ECB President Lagard to speak.

• Spain PPI (May

• France unemployment figures (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Israel’s Knesset can officially dissolve starting on this day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing of significance to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• African Union Annual Small and Medium Enterprise Forum held in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 28, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US will see election primaries and run-off races in Colorado, New York, Illinois, Utah, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Mississippi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US goods trade balance (May), wholesale and retail inventories (May), Redbook (Jun), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (Apr), CB Consumer Confidence (Jun), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Jun), Dallas Fed Services Index (Jun)

• Brazil banking lending (Mar)

• Argentina's current account (Q1)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea's consumer confidence (Jun)

• Japan retail sales (May)

• Australia retail sales (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• EU Environmental Council meets to reach a consensus on deforestation.

• France’s newly-elected National Assembly holds its first session.

• Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to lay out her detailed plan for a second independence referendum.

• Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day marking the anniversary of the signing of its constitution in 1996.

• The Parliamentary Speaker of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republican to speak before Russia’s Parliament (Duma).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• France Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• Italy Industrial Sales (Apr) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia private bank lending (May) 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Seychelles interest rate decision

• South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1 

Wednesday, June 29, 2022:

Global

• The NATO Summit will begin in Madrid, Spain (June 29-30) 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The UN Human Rights Council meets to discuss human rights in Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell to speak (virtually) on a panel with ECB President Lagarde as part of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (see a link to the event above).

• US GDP (Q1), Core PCE Prices (Q1), retail consumer spending (Q1), MBA mortgage applications (Jun)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

• Japan consumer confidence (Jun), industrial production (May)

• South Korea's industrial production (May), retail sales (May), construction output (May), manufacturing production (May)

• Vietnam GDP (Q2), CPI (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), Industrial Output (Jun), Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (Jun)

• Thailand Value Added Production (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The Committee on Climate Change in the UK to release their 2022 progress report to Parliament which will assess the UK’s chances of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

• Turkmenistan to host Caspian Summit in Ashgabat.  Russian President Putin is expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone economic confidence (Jun), Industrial Confidence (Jun), Services Confidence (Jun)

• Germany CPIs (Jun)

• Spain retail sales (May), CPI (Jun), business confidence (Jun)

• Russia GDP (May), unemployment rate (May), real wage growth (Apr), business confidence (Apr), industrial production (May), retail sales (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey's economic confidence (Jun)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa's consumer confidence (Q2)

Thursday, June 30, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US initial jobless claims (Jun), Chicago PMI (Jun), personal income & spending figures (May), PCE Price Index (May)

• Canada GDP (Apr), CFIB business barometer (Jun)

• Brazil's unemployment rate (May), nominal budget balance (May)

• Argentina economic activity

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow.

• Philippine President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. to be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS PMI Composite (Jun)

• Japan housing starts (May), construction orders (May), unemployment rate (May), CPIs (Jun), Tankan indexes (Q2)

• Hong Kong retail sales (May)

• Sri Lanka CPI (Jun)

• South Korea's industrial production (May), Service Industry Output (May), exports/imports/balance of trade (Jun)

• India infrastructure output (May), external debt (Q1)

• Indonesia S&P global manufacturing PMI (Jun) 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Putin to attend 9th Russia-Belarus Forum in Grodno, Belarus.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Import Price Index (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)

• Italy PPIs (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)

• Spain's current account balance (Apr)

• France CPIs (Jun), PPIs (Jun)

• UK current account (Q1), GDP (Q1), business investment (Q1)

• Swedish interest rate decision

• Eurozone unemployment rate (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia hosts OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting

• Turkey balance of trade (May), MPC meeting summary, FX reserves (Jun)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Sudan’s pro-democracy parties to hold a March of Millions to protest against the military junta.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa's money supply, private credit, PPIs, trade balance, and budget balance (all for May)

• Kenya inflation figures (Jun)

• Kenya GDP (Q1)

• Mauritius  GDP (Q1)

• Namibia GDP (Q1), money supply (May)

• Botswana GDP (Q1)

• Zambia GDP (Q1), trade balance (May)

Friday, July 1, 2022:

Global

• Brazil takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council in July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Canada Day is celebrated marking the formation of the Union of the British North American provinces in 1868.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun), ISM manufacturing prices (Jun), construction spending (May)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (Jun), industrial production (May), PPIs (May), the balance of trade (Jun)

• Mexico business confidence (Jun), FX reserves (May) 

Asia:

• Political/Social Events –

• Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Hong Kong for the 25th anniversary of the handover from the UK to China as well as attend John Lee’s inauguration as chief executive.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin PMI (Jun)

• Taiwan Markit PMI (Jun)

• Thailand Markit PMI (Jun)

• Malaysia Markit PMI (Jun)

• Vietnam Market PMI (Jun)

• Philippines Markit PMI (Jun)

• India Markit PMI (Jun), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (Jun)

• Indonesia Markit PMI (Jun), FX Reserves (Jun)

• South Korea Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (June), Markit PMI (Jun)

• Australia commodity prices (Jun)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

• The Czech Republic assumes the six-month presidency of the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Italy S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), inflation figures (Jun)

• France S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), budget balance (May)

• Germany S&P/BME Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), CPI estimate (Jun)

• Russia S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

• UK nationwide housing prices (Jun), mortgage approvals (May), BoE consumer credit (May), S&P/CIPS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMIs (Jun) 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Nigeria PMI (Jun)

Saturday, July 2, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• UFO Day takes place in Roswell, New Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China industrial profits (May)

• Japan Bank of Japan summary of opinions

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa’s African National Congress Party to hold elective provisional conference.

• Mozambique celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Week Ahead: EU To Lay Out Path for Membership for Ukraine, Moldavia, and Georgia; The Fed, Other Leading Central Banks Set to Raise Rates

Global Political and Economic Calendar for June 12 - 19, 2022

This week, we are closely watching as the EU begins to formally look at possible EU membership for Ukraine, Moldva, and Georgia. Also this week, Russian President Putin speaks publicly twice - Sunday in an address to the nation on the anniversary of “Russia Day” and later this week at the St. Petersburg International Econmic Forum. Also this week, the US Federal Reserve as well as the Central Bank of Japan and the British Central Bank are set to raise rates in a bid to stave off rising inflation. There is a host of important economic economic data this week - particularly in Germany, France, the US and other leading economies which will give us a better handle on the rise of inflation and growth overall. Here is everything we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 12, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• World Trade Organization (WTO) to hold its first ministerial conference in four years.

• Japan’s and China’s defense ministers to meet at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

• France holds the first round of legislative elections.

• Italy holds administrative elections and referendum on repealing five judicial laws or decrees.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to give a national address to the nation on the anniversary of Russia Day.

• EU’s Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) to meet in Geneva.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Nothing to report.

Asia:

• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q2)

• India passenger vehicle sales (May)

Europe:

• Nothing to report.

Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Monday, June 13, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin to meet with US Secretary of State Tony Blinken in Washington DC.

• EU Commission President von der Leyen to visit Egypt and Israel (June 13/14).

• US Climate Envoy John Kerry to meet with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico.

• EU’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council to meet in Luxembourg to discuss fishing rights and issues related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Bennett and then with Palestinian Representatives regarding the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian territorial disputes (Jerusalem and then Ramallah)

• The Philippines celebrates Independence Day.

• The UK government expected to present legislation on unilaterally revising the Northern Ireland Protocol to the House of Commons, London.

• Egypt’s Criminal Court begins the trial of several prominent human rights activists in Cairo.

• France hosts the Eurosatory Defense Industry Exhibition in Paris.

• The Africa CEO Forum takes place in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

 Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (May), Fed Vice Chair Brainard Speech

• Brazil Central Bank Market Readout

Asia:

• India Inflation Rate (May)

• New Zealand migration figures

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (May), House Price Index (Q1),

Europe:

• UK GDP (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)< Construction Output (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr) Manufacturing Production (Apr), Goods Trade Balance (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr)

• Spain consumer confidence (Apr)

Middle East:

• Turkey Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Current Account (Apr)

Africa:

• South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (Apr & May)

• Botswana inflation figures

Tuesday, June 14, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The UK expected to begin deporting the first group of Rwandan migrants.

• EU Parliament to hold Environmental and Economic Committee meetings on new criteria for “Green Label” of energy (e.g., will this include natural gas and nuclear or not).

• EU’s Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Committee to meet (through June 16th) to discuss the EU’s global health policy.

• US primaries are to be held in Main, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

• 40th anniversary of Argentina’s surrender in the Falklands War.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Core PPIs (May), NFIB Business Optimism Index (May), Redbook (Jun)

• Brazil Business Confidence (Jun)

• Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

Asia:

• China Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment (May), Foreign Direct Investment (May)

• Japan Industrial Production (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Apr), Reuters Tankan Index (Jun), Machinery Orders (Apr)

• South Korea Unemployment figures (May)

• India WPI Inflation (May)

• Australia household spending (May); NAB business conditions (May); Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• New Zealand food prices (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)

• Germany Inflation Rate (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)

• UK Unemployment figures/earning averages (Apr)

Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia reports OPEC Monthly Report

Africa:

• Tanzania 2022-2023 budget presentations

• Uganda 2022-23 budget presentations

Wednesday, June 15, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• European Commission may present recommendations on the candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia for membership in the EU.

• Ukraine Defense Contact Group (made up of defense ministers of countries supplying military aid to Ukraine) to meet.

• Saudi diplomatic delegation visits Washington to discuss possible US Presidential visit to Saudi Arabia. We could see an announcement this week of President Biden’s intention to travel to the Kingdom.

• 9th World Congress of Oceans to be held in Singapore (through June 17th).

• Czech Republic to present political agenda for the upcoming presidency of the EU Council.

• Russia, Turkey, and Iran hold the 18th “Astana Process” meeting to monitor Syria’s ceasefire.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2:00 p.m.), Retail Sales (May), Import Prices/export Prices (May), Business Inventories (Apr), NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun); Retail Inventories (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank interest rate decision, IBC-BR Economic Activity (Mar)

Asia:

• China House Price Index (May)

• Australia consumer sentiment (Jun), Unemployment rate (May)

• New Zealand current account balance (Q1)

• Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May),

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Apr), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• South Korea Import Prices/Export Prices (May)

Europe:

• ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the London School of Economics.

• Eurogroup Meeting

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)

• Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

• France Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)

• Turkey Budget Balance (May)d

Africa:

• South Africa's retail sales

• Kenya fuel prices

• Nigerian inflation figures

• Namibia inflation figures, Central Bank interest rate decision

Thursday, June 16, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are planning to visit in-person Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine.

• United Nations Security Council discusses the situation in Haiti.

• Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to discuss Pakistan’s status.

• Egypt hosts the East Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo.

• India hosts Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers commemorating the 30th anniversary of relations between India and ASEAN.

• The US Treasury holds its inaugural Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) Conference.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Housing Starts (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun), Jobless Claims (Jun),

• Canada Wholesale Sales (Apr)

Asia:

• Japan Central Bank interest rate decision

• Australia consumer inflation expectations (Jun); Labor force figures (May)

• New Zealand GDP (Q1)

Europe:

• Eurozone finance ministers to meet to discuss Exchange Rate Mechanism II, digital euro, fiscal rules reform, and banking union in Brussels.

• Eurozone Labour Cost Index (Q1), Wage Growth (Q1)

• UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• Italy Inflation figures (May)

• Spain Balance of Trade (Apr)

• Russia GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Middle East:

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves, Auto Production (Jun)

• Africa:

• Botswana’s Central Bank interest rate decision 

Friday, June 17, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Japan is scheduled to implement a ban on all Russian heavy-duty equipment being sold in Japan.

• Russian President Putin to speak at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

• EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council to meet in Brussels to discuss Solvency II, the Pillar 2 Directive, and other issues.

• Nigerian presidential candidates are required to submit the names of their running mates.

• The feast of Corpus Christi is celebrated in Catholic Church worldwide and in other western churches.

• Iceland celebrates its national day.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell Speech, US industrial Production (May), Manufacturing Production (May), CB Leading Index (May)

• Canada PPIs (May),  Raw Materials Prices (May)

Asia:

• India Deposit Growth (Jun), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Jun)

• New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (May)

• Europe:

• EcoFin Meeting

• Eurozone Inflation Rate (May), CPI (May)

• Italy Construction Output (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)

• Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Bloomberg South Africa Economic Survey released. 

Saturday, June 18, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Nothing to report.

Asia:

• Nothing to report.

Europe:

• Nothing to report.

Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Sunday, June 19, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Colombia to hold its presidential runoff election.

• France holds run-off legislative elections.

• Celebration of Juneteenth (emancipation of slaves) in the US.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Americas:

• Nothing to report.

• Asia:

• China Loan Prime Rate (Jun)

• Europe:

• Nothing to report.

• Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

• Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Global Calendar June 5 - 12, 2022

This is going to be a very busy week around the world. A number of critical geopolitical meetings, summits, and dialogues are scheduled. Of particular note, Presidential leaders from the Western Hemisphere will gather Monday through Wednesday in Los Angeles for the Summit of the Americas (although a number of them are threatening to not attend unless the heads of state of Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba are invited to the Summit). Indo-Pacific defense policy will be discussed and debated at the Shangrila Dialogue in Singapore - and where a possible first-of-its-kind sideline meeting between the US and Chinese defense heads could occur. Economically, we will be watching the ECB’s decision on rates (Thursday) and important economic data out of China and the US over the course of the week. Here are the key geopolitical and economic events and reports we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 5, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• NATO begins the Ramstein Legacy 2022 military exercise.

• US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman begins a 10-day visit to South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos to discuss Indo-Pacific security issues.

• Kazakhstan holds a referendum on constitutional changes.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 6, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Summit of the Americas takes place in Los Angeles, California.  Regional Presidents will gather on Wednesday to meet.

• European Parliament plenary session in Strasbourg, France (all week).

• Six Mexican states hold gubernatorial and local elections.

• Chilean President Gabriel Boric holds bilateral talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa.

• Nigeria’s ruling APC starts voting for a presidential candidate.

• The US Congress returns to session after being off last week for Memorial Day.

• The House January 6th Committee begins to hold its first public hearings.

• US National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly, and other senior US intelligence/Cybersecurity leaders will speak at the RSA Conference in San Francisco (Monday through Thursday).

• The UN Security Council holds a meeting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors will meet in Vienna, Austria to discuss Iran, North Korea, Syria, and other areas of concern.

• South Korea observers Memorial Day in honor of those who died during the Korean War.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (Mar)

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

Asia:

• China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (May)

• South Korea FX Reserves (May)

• Japan Overtime Pay (Apr), Household Spending (Apr)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May), ANZ Job Advertisements (May), Ai Group Services Index (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• UK New Car Sales (May); BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)

• Middle East:

• Nothing significant to report.

• Africa:

• Uganda PMIs (May)

• Kenya PMIs (May)

Tuesday, June 7, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Belgium’s King Philippe and Queen Mathilde visit the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Royal couple is expected to offer an apology to the Congolese people for Belgium’s colonial past.

• South Korea’s unionized freight workers are expected to hold nationwide strikes.

• Sweden’s Parliament to hold a no-confidence vote against Justice Minister Morgan Johannson over his handling of gang violence.  Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said she will resign if Johannson receives a no-confidence vote.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Vilnius, Lithuania to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

• The Ivory Coast to elect a new President of their National Assembly.

• Primary elections are being held in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (Apr), Redbook (Jun), LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)

• Canada Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (Apr), Ivey PMIs (May)

• Brazil Car Production (May)

Asia:

• China FX Reserves (May)

• Japan GDP (Q1), Current Account (Apr), GDP Price Index (Q1), Leading Economic Index (Apr), Coincident Index (Apr)

• South Korea GDP (Q1)

• Australia Building Permits (Apr), Private House Approvals (Apr)

Europe:

• Germany Factor Orders (Apr), S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• Spain Industrial Production (Apr), Consumer Confidence (May)

• France S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• Italy S&P Global Construction PMIs (May)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIs (May)

• Russia FX Reserves (May)

• Middle East:

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

• Africa:

• South Africa FX Reserves (May), GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

• Seychelles inflation figures (May)

Wednesday, June 8, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The Summit of the Americas will today host a meeting of regional presidents in Los Angeles, California.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Turkey for talks regarding grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

• US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen to testify on the President’s proposed 2023 budget before the House Ways & Means Committee where she will likely field a number of questions about the economy.

• The trial of former Fifa President Sepp Blatter and ex-Uefa Chief Michel Platini begins in the Swiss Federal Criminal Court.

Economic Reports/Events:

Global:

• The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) publishes its 2022 World Economic Outlook.

Americas:

• US MBA Mortgage Applications/30-year Mortgage Rate/Refinance Index/Mortgage Market Index (June); Wholesale Inventories (Apr), EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks (Jun)

• Brazil Net Payrolls (Apr)

Asia:

• India Central Bank Rate Decision; Cash Reserve Ratio

• Japan Eco Watchers Survey (May)

• South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (May), Central Bank Chart Pack

• Indonesia FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone GDP Growth Rate (Q1), Employment Change (Q1)

• Germany Industrial Production (Apr)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (May), RICS House Price Balance (May), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMIs (May)

• France Balance of Trade/Current Account/Exports/Imports (Apr), FX Reserves (May)

• Italy Retail Sales (Apr)

• Russia Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East:

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

• South Africa current account (May), SACCI Business Confidence figures (both Apr. and May)

Thursday, June 9, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin to lead the celebration of the 350th anniversary of Peter of the Great in St. Petersburg, Russia.

• Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor Riad Salemeh’s trial for bribery begins in Beirut.

• Thailand official legalizes marijuana and begins to give away more than one million marijuana plants to citizens.

• EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg.

• EU Competitiveness Council meeting.

• US SpaceX Cargo Dragon launches from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida to resupply the International Space Station.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Initial Jobless Claims (Jun), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (Jun)

• Mexico Inflation Rate (May)

• Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

• Argentina Industrial Production (Apr)

Asia:

• China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• Japan PPIs (May), Machine Tool Orders (May)

• South Korea Current Account (Apr)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe:

• European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

• France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

• UK BBA Mortgage Rate (May)d

• Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (Apr)

Africa:

• South Africa Current Account (Q1), Gold Production/Mining Production (Apr), Business Confidence (Q2), Manufacturing Production (Apr),

Friday, June 10, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The Shangri-La Dialogue is to be held in Singapore where US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe may for the first time in sideline meetings.

• The OECD International Economic Forum on Africa is held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas

• US Inflation Figures (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun), WASDE Report, Monthly Budget Statement (May)

• Canada Employment Figures (May), Capacity Utilization (Q1)

• Mexico Industrial Production (Apr)

• Brazil Retail Sales (Apr)

Asia:

• China Inflation Rate (May), PPIs (May)

• India Industrial Production/Manufacturing Production (Apr), FX Reserves (Jun), Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun), HIA New Homes Sales (May)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (Apr)

Europe:

• France Private non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

• Spain Inflation Rates (May)
  Italy Industrial Production (Apr)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East:

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (Apr), Auto Production (May)

Africa:

• Rwanda inflation figures (May)

• Uganda S&P Global ratings

Saturday, June 11, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The Financial Action Task Force holds their Conference on Digital Transformation in Berlin, Germany.

• Papua New Guinea holds general elections.

• UK Fashion Week begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Nothing to report.

Asia:

• China Vehicles Sales (May), New Yuan Loans (May), Total Social Financing (May)

Europe:

• Nothing to report.

Middle East:

• Nothing to report.

Africa:

• Nothing to report.

Sunday, June 12, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• World Trade Organization holds its Ministerial Conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

• France holds National Assembly elections (through June 19th).

• Meeting of G-7 Science Ministers in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Italy holds municipal elections.

• Russia Day is scheduled to be commemorated in Russia in honor of the country’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Travels in America: Montana

Just back recently from a fantastic fly fishing trip to Montana. Yellowstone Park, the Yellowstone River, Bozeman - all of it so beautiful. Here is a sunset in Bozeman on my last night there. What a spectacular country I live in!

Global Calendar May 31 - June 5, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

This week’s report is shortened due to the long holiday weekend in the United States.  We are watching in particular this week the OPEC+ meeting being held in Saudi Arabia as well as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s side meetings with officials in Bahrain.  We will learn if Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is extradited or not.  Also this week, the US Federal Reserve releases their “Beige Book” and a host of employment and inflation figures are released around the world. 

Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:

Tuesday, May 31, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Term of EU President Charles Michel first term ends and the second begins.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Bahrain.

• World Trade Organization dispute settlement body holds a monthly meeting.

• The UK must make a decision by end of the day whether to extradite Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US S&P/Case Shiller Home Price (Mar); Chicago PMI (May); CB Consumer Confidence (May); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

• Canada GDP rate (Q1)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (Apr); Budget Balance (Apr)

• Mexico unemployment figures (Apr)

Asia:

• China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMIs (May); NBS General PMIs (May)

• India GDP (Q1);  Infrastructure Rate (Apr); Government Budget Value (Apr); Budget Balance (Apr)

• Japan Consumer Confidence (May); Housing Starts (Apr); Construction Orders (Apr)

• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (May); Company Gross Profits (Q1); Building Permits (Apr); Business Inventories (Q1); Current Account (Q1); Private House Approvals (Apr); Private Sector Credit (Apr)

Europe:

• German Unemployment figures (Apr)

• France Inflation Rate (May); GDP (Q1); PPIs (Apr); Household Consumption (Apr)

• Italy GDP figures (Q1); Inflation figures (May)

• Spain Current Account (Mar)

• UK Mortgage Lending/Approvals (Apr); BoE Consumer Credit (Apr)

• Russia Central Bank Financial Stability Review

• Eurozone Inflation figures (May)

Middle East:

• Turkey GDP (Q1); Balance of Trade (Q1)

Africa:

• South Africa Balance of Trade (Apr); Private Sector Credit figures (Apr); Unemployment figures (Q1)

• Kenya inflation figures (May)

• Uganda inflation figures (May)

Wednesday, June 1, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• President Biden meets with New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to discuss US Indo-Pacific Strategy.

• Albania assumes the revolving presidency of UN Security Council.

• Shanghai to move to the next phase of lock-down.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Saudi Arabia to participate in the Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council.

• Islamic Development Bank’s Board of Governors to meet in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt to discuss economic recovery issues post-COVID.

• Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz visits India to discuss mutual defense issues.

• The Chairman of Taiwan’s opposition party, Kuomintang, begins a 12-day visit to the US.

• Denmark holds a referendum on joining the EU’s defense pact as well as increasing the military spending budget and moving to stop using Russian gas.

• South Korea holds local elections (Mayoral and Gubernatorial).

• The US is expected to remove 25 percent tariffs on British steel and aluminum exports. Conversely, the UK will suspect taxes on US products including US-made bourbon.

• Japan to double the number of tourists allowed entry into the country (20,000).

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Federal Reserve Beige Book, S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May),  MBA Mortgage figures (May)

• Mexico Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (Apr), Global Manufacturing

• Brazil S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Balance of Trade (May)

• Canada S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May)

Asia:

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (May)

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIs (May)

• Australia GDP figures (Q1), Commodity Prices (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Unemployment Rate (May)

• Germany S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Retail Sales (Apr)

• Russia GDP (Apr-May), S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (May), Industrial Production (Apr), Real Wage Growth (Apr)

• UK S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

• France S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Budget Balance (Apr)

• Spain S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May)

• Italy S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Unemployment numbers (Apr)

Middle East:

• Turkey manufacturing PMIs (May)

Africa:

• Nigeria’s PMIs (May)

• South Africa vehicle sales (May), Manufacturing PMIs (May)

Thursday, June 2, 2022

Political/Social Events:

• OPEC+ meeting to discuss pricing and production.

• EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) to discuss internal EU alignment issues.

• EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meeting.

• ASEAN Regional Forum Security Policy Conference to be held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

• The UK holds the Trooping of the Colour military parade to celebrate Queen Elizabeth’s 96th birthday.

• Italy celebrates “Festa della Repubblica” commemorating the country forming the first post-World War II government.

Economic Reports/Events:

Global:

OPEC+ Ministerial meetings begin, Saudi Arabia.

Americas:

• US employment numbers (May), Non-Farm Productivity (May), Factory Orders (Apr), Crude Oil Import/Refinery figures (May)

• Canada Building Permits (Apr)

• Brazil inflation figures (May), GDP figures (Q1), PPIs (Apr)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

• Asia:

• India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation Rate figures (May)

• South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation Rate (May)

• Australia S&P Global Services PMIs (May)balance of trade, retail sales, exports, imports (all Apr), Construction Index (May)

Europe:

• Spain Unemployment figures (May)

Middle East:

• No significant reports.

Africa:

• South Africa electricity production and consumption figures (Apr)

Friday, June 3, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

o   EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss the state of play of WTO reform and EU-US trade relations.

o   EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meet to discuss the EU’s digital transition (AI, digital identity regulation, and Data Act).

o   China and Taiwan each hold an annual Dragon Boat Racing Festival.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Unemployment rate/non-farm payrolls/average hourly earnings/participation rate (May)

• Brazil Industrial Production (Apr), S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May), S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

• Canada Labor Productivity (Q1)

Asia:

• Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (May)

• Australia Home Loans/Lending (Apr)

• India S&P Global Services PMIs (May), FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May), Retail Sales (Apr)

• Germany Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (Apr), Current Account (Apr), S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

• Russia S&P Global Services PMIs (May), Business Confidence (May)

• France Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr)

• Spain S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

• Italy S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

• France S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

Middle East:

• Turkey PPIs (May), Inflation Rate (May)

Africa:

• Mozambique PMIs (May)

• South Africa PMIs (May)

• Ghana PMIs (May)

Saturday, June 4, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Tonga, and holds a virtual meeting in Fiji with 10 other Pacific Island nations to discuss mutual security arrangements.

• Day 100 of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown in Beijing.

• Iran holds a national holiday commemorating the death of Ayatollah Khomeini.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing of significance to report.

Sunday, June 5, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Pentecost is celebrated by Western Christian Churches.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Brazil S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

Global Calendar May 22 - 29, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

This week, global government and business leaders gather again for the first time in more than two years in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum.  President Biden continues his tour of Asia with Quad leadership meetings in Tokyo.  Also this week, the UN’s Human Rights Chief makes a closely watched visit to China to discuss various human rights issues but the repression of Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang province.   

Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 22, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins three-day visit to Senegal, Niger, and South Africa (May 22-25).

• Thailand holds gubernatorial and mayoral elections (the first since 2014 when a coup was attempted)

• World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland (through May 26)

 Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 23, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• UN Human Rights Chief Bachelet visits China for high-level meetings on human rights issues in the Xinjiang province and treatment of Muslim minorities.

• Eurogroup Working Group meeting, in Brussels to discuss fiscal development in the Euro area as well as EC Spring Forecast.

• EU General Affairs Council meeting in Brussels to discuss Hungary.

• European Economic Area Council meeting in Brussels to discuss reducing strategic dependencies in the fields of raw materials and energy.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr);

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout; IBC-Br Economic Activity (Mar)

Asia:

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

• Australia S&P Global PMIs (May)

Europe:

• Germany ifo Business Climate/Conditions/Expectations figures (May); Bundesbank Monthly Report

Middle East:

• Turkey Business Confidence (May), Capacity Utilization (May)

Africa:

• African Development Bank Annual Summit starts in Ghana.

Tuesday, May 24, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Quad Leaders’ Summit in Tokyo, Japan.

• US primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia.

• G-7 Labor and Employment Ministers meeting in Wolfsburg, Germany.

• Council of the Baltic Sea States Ministerial Meeting in Kristiansand, Norway. It is the first meeting the Council has held in nine years and the focus will be on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

• Turkey’s foreign Minister Mevlut Cavausoglu and other senior officials visit Israel to discuss normalizing ties between the two countries.  He also will meet with senior Palestinian Authority officials.

• The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will meet in Moscow to discuss possibly establishing a joint radiological/chemical/Biological defense unit.  The CSTO is made up of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

• EU Agricultural and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels to discuss spread of highly pathogenic avian flu.

• EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels to implications of sanctions imposed on Russia.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell speaks at National Center for American Indian Enterprise Development 20222 Reservation Economic Summit (pre-recorded video)

• US Redbook (May); PMIs (May); New Home Sales (Apr); Richmond Red Manufacturing Index (May); API Crude Oil Stock Change (May)

• Mexico inflation rate figures (May)

• Brazil IPCA mid-month CPIs (May)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr);  Wholesale Sales (Apr)

• Argentina Retails Sales (Mar)

Asia:

• Japan Jibun Bank PMIs (May)

• South Korea Business Confidence (May)

• Indonesia central bank interest rate decision

Europe:

• ECB President Lagarde speech

• France Business Confidence (May), Business Climate Indicator (May); S&P PMIs (May)

• Germany S&P PMIs (May)

• Eurozone S&P PMIs (May)

• UK S&P/CIPS PMIs (May)

Middle East:

• No significant reports.

Africa:

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (Mar); SACCI Business Confidence (Apr)

• Ghana central bank interest rate decision

• Nigeria central bank interest rate decision; GDP Q1

Wednesday, May 25, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Ankara, Turkey to discuss regional security issues and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• G-& Environmental Ministers Meeting, Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Brainard speech; Fed Board Minutes released.

• US MBA Mortgage Applications/Mortgage Rate/Mortgage Refinance (May); Durable Goods Orders (Apr)

• Brazil Consumer Confidence (May); Current Account (Apr)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (Apr); GDP (Q1); Economic Activity (Mar); Current Account (Q1);

Asia:

• Japan Leading Economic Index (Mar); Coincident Index (Mar)

Europe:

• ECB President Lagarde speech.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun); GDP Growth (Q1)

• France Consumer Confidence (May); Unemployment figures (Apr)

• Spain PPIs (Apr)

• Russia’s PPIs (Apr)

Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade

Africa:

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 26, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• The International Charlemagne Award for European Unity is presented in Aachen, Germany.

• Australia holds “Sorry Day” commerating the forced removal of Aborignial children from their parents.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US GDP figures (Q1), Jobless Claims (May); Core PCE Prices (Q1); Real Consumer Spending (Q1); Pending Home Sales (Apr); Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Kansas Fed Composite Index (May)

• Canada Retail Sales (Mar)

• Mexico Retail Sales (Mar); Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Brazil Payrolls (Apr)

Asia:

• Japan CPI ex-Food and Energy (May); CPIs (May)

• South Korean central bank interest rate decision.

• Australia Building Capital Expenditures (Q1)

Europe:

• Italy Business confidence (May), Consumer Confidence (May) Industrial Sales (Mar)

Middle East:

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May); FX Reserves (May), Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee meetings re: rates.

Africa:

• South Africa PPIs (Apr)

Friday, May 27, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• NATO Parliamentary Assembly begins annual spring session in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Personal Spending/Personal Income figures (Apr); PCE Price Index (Apr); Goods Trade Balance (Apr); Wholesale Inventories (Apr); Retail Inventories (Apr); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expectations (May)

• Canada CFIB Business Barameter (May); Budget Balance (Mar)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)

• Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (Apr)

Asia:

• China Industrial Profits (Apr)

• India FX Reserves (May)

• Australia Retail Sales (Apr)

Europe:

• Spain Retail Sales (Apr)

• Eurozone Loan Household and Companies data (Apr)

Middle East:

• Turkey Financial Stability Report

Africa:

• South Africa PPIs

• Zambia inflation figures, trade balance (Apr)

Saturday, May 28, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Nothing significant to report at this time.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 29, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Colombia holds first round of its presidential election.

• Eurogroup Working Group meeting, Brussels

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Global Calendar May 15 - 22, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s continues to dominate geopolitical and geoeconomics events this coming week.  We expect the historic formal announcement from both Sweden and Finland requesting NATO membership.  The EU is expected to continue pushing forward with new sanctions on Russia as well as announce new rules around Russia natural gas imports.  Additionally, the US will hold a Ministerial Level meeting in New York Tuesday to discuss growing global food security issues as the US Senate is expected to approve a $40 billion military and economic aid package to Ukraine. 

Later in the week, President Biden heads to South Korea and then to Japan where he is expected to unveil his long-awaited Indo Pacific Economic Framework. 

Economically, we will be watching on Tuesday newly-reconfirmed US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference as well as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday, as well.

Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Lebanon holds parliamentary elections.

• Switzerland holds referendum on contribution to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency.

• Finland to announce intention to join NATO.

• Germany’s state of North Rhine-Westphalia holds regional elections.

• EU-US Trade and Technology Council 2nd meeting held today and tomorrow in France (watch for possible announcement on a deal for EU-US Privacy Shield replacement).

• Total Lunar Eclipse (“Blood Moon”) will be visible across North and South America as well as parts of Europe and Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing Significant to report.

Monday, May 16, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• EU Foreign Affairs Council meets regarding Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, a possible new round of sanctions and oil embargo against Russia, as well as sharing views on current situation in Western Balkans.

• Greece’s Prime Minister Mitsotakis meets with President Biden in Washington, D.C.

• EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

• EU-Canada Joint Ministerial Committee meeting.

• Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold first in a series of bilateral meetings on border tensions overseen hosted by Russia in Moscow.

• Indian Prime Minister Modi makes a state visit to Nepal.

• India hosts Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s anti-terror meeting.

• First draft of Chile’s new constitution to be finalized for internal revision.

• Somalia to hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler to speak at the FINRA 2022 Annual Conference in Washington DC where he is expected to address the SEC’s agenda and crypto regulation.

• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Sales (Mar)

• Canada Housing Starts (Apr), Manufacturing Sales (Mar), Wholesale Sales (Mar)

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout, I(BC-Br Economic Activity (Mar)

Asia:

• China Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Unemployment rate (Apr)

• Japan PPIs, Machine Tool Orders (Apr),

• Europe:

• Germany Whole Prices (Apr)

• UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings

• Eurozone Balance of Trade (Mar)

• European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East:

• Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)

• Turkey Current Account (Apr), Budget Balance (Apr)

Africa:

• Nigeria reports inflation figures (Apr)

Tuesday, May 17, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine and concurrently hold a meeting of the European Defense Agency.

• Finnish President Sauli Niinisto to visit Sweden to discuss both countries application to NATO and mutual security concerns.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to participate in “Ukraine 30. Digitalization Forum”

• Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to visit US for meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and to attend global food security meeting in New York.

• The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma continues.

• The United Nations hosts the 54th Conference of Africa Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Dakar, Senegal.

• US Congressional Primaries are being held in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. 

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a speech at Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference in New York City and online.

• US Retail Sales (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Apr), Business Inventories (Mar), Retail Inventories (Mar), NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

Asia:

• Australia Royal Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

• India WPI for Food (Apr), Manufacturing (Apr), Fuel (Apr), and Inflation (Apr),

• Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (Apr)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Mar), GDP Growth Rate figures, GDP Capital Expenditures (Q1), Price Index (Q1), Reuters Tankan Index (May),

• Malaysian Central Bank meeting

Europe:

• ECB President LaGarde speech ECB President Christine Lagarde to speak at Soroptimist International-Club Darmstadt in Darmstadt, Germany

• France Unemployment Rate (Q1)

• UK Employment Change (Feb), Labour Productivity ((Q1),

• Italy Balance of Trade (Mar), Inflation rate (Apr)

• Spain Balance of Trade (Mar)

• Eurozone Employment Change and Growth Rate (Q1)

Middle East:

• Nothing of significance to report.

Africa:

• South Africa Business Confidence (Apr).

Wednesday, May 18, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to host a Global Food Security Ministerial in New York.

• European Commission expected to publish legislative proposals ending the EU’s reliance on Russian natural gas.

• Pakistan expected to begin negotiations with the International Monetary Fund on a support package.

 Economic Reports/Events: 

Global:

• G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Germany.

Americas:

• US MBA reports mortgage applications, 30-Mortgage Rate, Mortgage Refinance Index, Purchase Index (all for May); Housing Starts and Building Permits (Apr); EIA reports Crude Oil Stocks as well as Gasoline Stocks, Crude Oil Imports, Refinery Crude runs

• Canada inflation rate figures (Apr)

Asia:

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (Apr), Wage Price Index figures

• China House Price Index (Apr)

• Japan Industrial Production (Mar), Capacity Utilization (Mar), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (all for Apr), Machinery Orders (Mar)

Europe:

• ECB holds a non-Monetary Policy Meeting

• Russia GDP Growth Rate ((Q1)

• UK Inflation figures (Apr), PPIs (Apr) Retail Price Index (Apr)

• Eurozone Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)

Middle East:

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

• South Africa Inflation rate figures (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr)

• Zambia Central Bank interest rate decision

• Ghana PPIs (Apr)

Thursday, May 19, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• NATO Defense Ministers to meet in Brussels, Belgium.

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to chair UN Security Conference to discuss food security and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in New York.

• APEC holds trade ministers meeting in Bangkok, Thailand (May 18/19/20).

• The US Senate Banking Committee will begin consideration of Michael Barr for the role of Vice Chair for Supervision for the Federal Reserve Board.

Economic Reports/Events: 

Americas:

• US Initial Jobless Claims (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (May) Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Employment (May); US Existing Home Sales (Apr), CB Leading Index (Apr)

• Canada Raw Material Prices (Apr), New Housing Price Index (Apr), PPIs (Apr)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (Apr), Economic Activity (Mar), Leading Indicators (Apr)

Asia:

• Australia Unemployment Rate/Full-Time Employment change figures (Apr); Current Account (Mar)

• Japan Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)

• South Korea PPIs (Apr)

Europe:

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

• Eurozone Current Account (Mar), Construction Output (Mar)

• Italy Current Account (Mar)

• UK CBI Industrial Trend Orders (Mar), Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)

Middle East:

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

• South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Building Permits (Mar)

Friday,  May 20, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• President Biden arrives in South Korea for three-day summit.

• Foreign Ministers from Council of Europe members states to meet in Turin, Italy to discuss mutual response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.

• Japan expected to announce bank on exports of hi-tech goods to Russia.

• Deadline for French candidates to declare their intention to run for France’s Parliament. 

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

• US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)

• Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (Apr)

• Canada ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Asia:

• China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y)

• Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

• India FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (May)

• Germany PPI’s (Apr)

• UK Retail Sales figures (Apr)

• Italy Construction Output (Mar)

Middle East:

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)

Africa:

• South Africa expecting S&P Global to issue credit assessment.

Saturday, May 21, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Australia holds Federal Elections.

Sunday, May 22, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• US President Biden begins visit to Japan where he will meet with leaders of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, US) for discussions including focus on North Korea’s recent weapons tests.  He is also expected to launch the US Indo-Pacific Economic Plan.

• EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meetings to discuss global implications of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

• Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim meets with German Chancellor Scholtz to discuss energy and security issues (e.g., Iran nuclear negotiations) in Berlin, Germany.

• World Economic Forum begins in Davos. 

Global Calendar: May 9 - 15, 2022

It is going to be a particularly busy week both politically and economically. We are closely watching the Victory Day parade in Moscow on Monday which may give us some further indications of President Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine - and the West. We are also keenly paying attention to the elections in the Philippines which could have a significant impact on overall Indo-Pacific affairs going forward.

Political/Social Events –

• Philippines national elections. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr – son of the late dictator— is favored to win the presidency.  Also up for election: a new Vice President, 12 senators, 300 lower house legislators, and approximately 18,000 other local officials.

• Russia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany.

• Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador to meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Havana, Cuba.

• President Biden is expected to sign Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act into law.

• Europe Day is celebrated in Europe, commemorating the 1950 Schuman declaration.

• World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland.

• APEC commences senior Officials Meeting through May 18th in Bangkok, Thailand.

• World Trade Organization’s General Council Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland.

• Australia opens early voting centers for 2022 federal elections.

• Saudi Arabia to host inaugural Future Aviation Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  Saudi leaders hope this helps jump-start efforts to make the Kingdom a major regional airport hub.

• Pulitzer Prize winners and finalists announced, New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Wholesale inventories (Mar), consumer inflation (Mar)

• Japan’s Central Bank monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; FX reserves (Apr), Jibun Bank Services PMIs (Apr), Household Spending figures (Mar)

• China’s balance of trade, exports/imports (Apr)

• South Korea's current account (Mar)

• India GDP growth rate (Apr), inflation rate figures (Apr), GDP growth rate Q1

• Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (Apr)

• South Africa FX reserves (Apr), SACCI Business Confidence (Apr)

• France's balance of trade (Mar), current account (Mar), Exports/Imports (Mar)

• UK BBA mortgage rate (Apr), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr)

• Mexico inflation rate figures (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

• Canada building permits (Mar)

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden meets with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in Washington DC. The primary focus of discussions is expected to be on assisting Italy and the greater EU with energy needs.

• South Korea holds its presidential inauguration, Seoul, South Korea.

• EU and United Nations hosts Brussels V Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria in Brussels.

• Great Britain’s Queen Elizabeth formally opens British Parliament’s legislative session.

• Russian President Putin expected to hold an economic policy session to discuss the impact of the War on Ukraine on Russia’s economy.

• G-7 Digital Affairs Ministers meet in Dusseldorf, Germany.

• United Nations commences a three-day conference meeting with Sudanese political groups regarding the democratic transition in Khartoum, Sudan.

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 31st Annual Meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Apr), Redbook (May), API Curide Oil Stock Change (May)

• South Korean Unemployment Rate (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank Copom Meeting Meetings, Retail Sales (Mar), Current Account (Mar), Foreign Direct Investment (Mar), Bank Lending (Mar)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Apr), Retail Sales (Mar)

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1, Industrial Production (Mar)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (Mar)

• Italy Industrial Production Mar(

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (May), ZEW Current Conditions (May)

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• EU hosts Cybertech Expo in Brussels (May 11-12)

• EU hosts Madrid Forum (European gas regulatory forum) in Madrid, Spain.

• India celebrates the annual Thrissur Pooram Elephant Festival.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation Rate figures (Apr), MBA Purchase Index (May), MBA Mortgage Application (May), MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate (May), MBA Market Index (May), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May), EIA Crude/Distillate Stocks Change (May), EIA Refinery Crude (May)

• Brazil Inflation Rate (Apr)

• Russia Monetary Policy Report, FX reserves (Apr)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)

• China Inflation figures (Apr), PPI (Apr)

• India Consumer Confidence (Apr)

• Japan Coincident Index (Mar), Leading Economic Index (Mar)

• Germany Inflation rate (Apr), Harmonized Inflation Rate (Apr)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (Apr)

• Organization Economic  (OECD) presents Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2022

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden hosts ASEAN leaders in Washington, DC (rescheduled from earlier this year).

• G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Weissenhaus, Germany (through May 14)

• Finland is expected to formally announce its decision on whether to join NATO.

• Commonwealth of Independent States Council of Foreign Ministers meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

• EU-Japan Summit to be held in Tokyo, Japan. Both European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will attend where a coordinated China policy will be a key focus.

• Global COVID-19 Summit to be held in Washington, DC.

• Southeast Asian Games begin in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PPIs (Apr), Jobless Claims (May), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (May), WASDE Report

• China New Yuan Loans (Apr), Outstanding Loan Growth (Apr), Vehicle Scores (Apr)

• Russia Balance of Trade (Feb & Mar)

• Australia Building Permits (Mar), Private House Approvals (Mar)

• India Retail Sales (Mar), Inflation Rate figures (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Mar)

• Japan Eco Watcher Survey Current (Apr), Central Bank presents “Summary of Opinions” on Monetary Policy Meeting

• UK GDP figures Q1, GDP 3-month avg, Industrial Production (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar), Balance of Trade (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar), Construction Orders (Q1), Business Investment (Q1)

• Germany Current Account (Mar)

• France IEA Oil Market Report

• Mexico Central Bank interest rate decision, Industrial Production (Mar)

• South Africa Mining Production (Mar), Gold Production (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar)

• Turkey FX Reserves (May)

• Argentina Inflation figures (Apr)

• South Korea Export/Import figures (Apr)

• Saudi Arabia OPEC Monthly Report

Friday, May 13, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts a trilateral peace meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and with Azerbaijan Foreign Minister in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

• Sweden’s Parliament is expected to debate the country joining NATO.

• G-7 Agriculture Ministers to meet in Germany. Global food security will be the focus of the meeting.

• Russian government expected to announce new list of sanctioned foreign entities and individuals barred from buying Russian products and natural resources.

• Iran hosts the 26th Annual International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Import Prices/Export Prices (Apr), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel. May), Michigan Current Conditions (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prel. May), Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)

• China Foreign Direct Investment (Apr)

• Russia Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• France Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• Spain Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Mar)

• Turkey Industrial Production (Mar), Retail Sales (Mar)

• India Imports/Exports (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr), FX Reserves (Apr)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (Mar), FX reserves (May)

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Foreign Ministers hold an informal meeting in Berlin, Germany.

• The 66th Annual Eurovision Song Contest final is held in Turin, Italy.

• Iceland holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• No significant reports/events.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Lebanon holds parliamentary elections.

• Switzerland holds a referendum on contribution to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency.

• EU-US Trade and Technology Council 2nd meeting held today and tomorrow in France (watch for a possible announcement on a deal for EU-US Privacy Shield replacement).

• Total Lunar Eclipse (“Blood Moon”) will be visible across North and South America as well as parts of Europe and Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)