Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
Geopolitical Calendar: March 13 - 21, 2022:
Sunday, March 13:
> Political Events/Social Events –
o Colombia holds elections for Senate, House of Representatives, and who will run in presidential primaries
o Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid meets with Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu in Bucharest
> Economic Events -
o No significant reports/events
Monday, March 14:
> Political Events/Social Events –
o US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and members of the National Security Council (NSC) meet with China’s lead foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, in Rome to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
o NATO begins “Operation Cold Response” - NATO’s largest military training exercises since the end of the Cold War with more than 30,000 NATO troops participating – non-NATO members Sweden and Finland are also scheduled to participate
o EU Eurogroup meets in Brussels along with Economic and Financial Advisors (March 14-15) in Brussels to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
o German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
o China to being releasing soybean stocks from state-owned Sinograin for auction to help alleviate domestic supply commodity fluctuations
o China to hold maritime military drills in South China Seas (but may actually for recovery of downed aircraft)
o Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid Slovakian Foreign Minister Ivan Korcok in Bratislava
o Commonwealth Day celebrated by 52 former British colonies in London
o White Day is celebrated in Japan (where men send presents to women who sent them gifts last month for Valentine’s Day)
o National Pi Day (because today is 3.14, the value of Pi)
> Economic Events –
o World Bank President David Malpass to speak on the global financial impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
o France trade balance
o India GDP
o UK Office of National Statistics annual review of “shopping basket” items making up the consumer price inflation indices
o Sri Lanka GDP
o Botswana inflation data
Tuesday, March 15:
> Political Events/Social Events–
o UN Security Council holds briefing on the UN Mission in South Sudan as its mandate ends
o Possible no-confidence vote in Pakistan National Assembly of Prime Minister Imran Khan following break-down of ruling coalition
o Somalia holds lower House elections
o EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss impact of sanctions on Russia among other issues
o Ukrainian President Zelensky to address Canadian Parliament by video
o Ides of March
> Economic Events –
o US PPIs
o Central Bank of Russia due to pay $117 million in coupons on dollar bonds
o China Industrial Production, Property Investment, Fixed Assets Retail Sales
o Germany ZEW Survey Expectations
o UK Jobless Claims
o Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations, Industrial Production
o Japan Trade Balance
o Canada Housing Starts, Manufacturing Sales
o OPEC monthly oil market report
o Indonesia Exports, Imports, Trade Balance
o Nigeria inflation numbers
o Namibia inflation numbers
Wednesday, March 16:
> Political Events –
o United Nations holds a briefing and consultation with UN Support Mission in Libya on sanctions on Libya
o NATO Defense Ministers hold an emergency meeting in Brussels
o Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farham Al Saud to visit Bangladesh
o Colombia holds legislative elections to elect 102 members of the Senate and 166 members of the House of Representatives
o the Netherlands holds municipal elections
o ASEAN Chiefs of Defense Forces meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia
> Economic Events –
o US Federal Reserve Board rate decision
o US Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Export Price Index, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index
o China New Home Prices
o APEC Finance and Central Bank Deputies meeting
o Japan Capacity Utilization, Core Machine Orders
o Canada CPI, Wholesale Trade Sales
o South Korea Unemployment Numbers
o South Africa Retail Sales
o Ghana Producer Inflation
o International Energy Agency monthly market report
Thursday, March 17:
> Political Event/Social Events –
o EU’s Environmental Council meets in Brussels
o ASEAN Economic Ministers’ Retreat (March 16-17)
o Ukraine’s President Zelensky scheduled to address German Bundestag (parliament)
o St. Patrick’s Day celebrated; Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Martin meets with President Biden and key members of Congress in Washington DC
o Purim – Annual festive Jewish holiday (March 17-18)
> Economic Events –
o Bank of England meeting
o Eurozone inflation data (Feb)
o US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
o Japan CPI
o Spain trade balance figures (Jan)
o Singapore Exports, Imports, Trade Balance, NODX
o Hong Kong Unemployment
o Indonesia Central Bank meeting
o Taiwan Central Bank meeting
o South Africa Q1 Consumer Confidence
Friday, March 18:
> Political Events/Social Events –
o ASEAN’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECEP) Ministerial scheduled to meet
o Russian Duma (parliament) to examine 3rd package of economic support measures
o Scotland’s Conservative Party Conference to be held in Aberdeen, Scotland
o Celebration of Holi – the Festival of Color - in India and among Hindus around the world
o Celebration of Hola Mahalla in India and among Sikhs around the world
> Economic Events –
o Bank of Japan meeting in Tokyo
o Central Bank of Russia meeting in Moscow
o US Existing Home Sales, Conference Board releases Leading Economic Index
o UK retail sales figures (Feb)
o Italy Trade Balance
o Eurozone Trade Balance, Labor Costs
o Canada Retail Sales
o Malaysia Exports, Imports, Trade Balance
o “Quadruple Witching Day” – stock index futures, stock index futures, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire
Saturday, March 19:
> Political Events/Social Events –
o Timor Leste holds presidential elections
o South Australia state elections
o Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida attends annual summit with India’s Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi, India
o The Feast of St. Joseph – the most important of saints’ feast days in the Roman Catholic Church is celebrated around the world
> Economic Events –
o China Foreign Direct Investment (Feb-YoY)
Sunday, March 20:
> Political Events –
o Wallis and Futuna Territorial Assembly election
o Spring (Vernal) Equinox
o Kurdish New Year
o UN-Sponsored “International Day of Happiness” (we sure need this one this year…)
> Economic Events –
o No significant events/data
Global Events This Week: March 6-13, 2022
This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week. We hope this is helpful. Please let us know if you have any questions.
► = Events of particular focus/note
Sunday, March 6:
> Political Events –
o US Secretary of State Blinken travels to Riga, Lithuania to meet with Lithuanian President Nauseda, Prime Minister Simonyte, and Foreign Minister Landsberger.
o Saudi Arabia hosts the World Defense Show for the global defense industry (March 6-9)
o 65th Independence Day in Ghana
> Economic Events -
o No significant reports/events
Monday, March 7:
> Political Events –
► o US Secretary of State Blinken travels to Riga, Latvia to meet with Latvian President Levits, Prime Minister Karins, and Foreign Minister Rinkevics
o International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting in Vienna
o Thailand’s government and southern rebel groups to commence the latest round of peace talks in Malaysia
► o Possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Belarus
o European Climate Conference in Nantes, France
o South African Parliament expected to set date for a no-confidence vote for President Ramaphosa after a long corruption investigation
o Ash Wednesday in the Eastern Orthodox Church (also known as Pure Monday)
> Economic Events –
o China export data (YoY), import data (YoY), trade balance (Feb)
o Germany retail sales, factory orders, current account (Jan)
o European Community Sentix investor confidence
o Japan current account (Jan)
o Brazil PMIs (Feb)
o Russia GDP (Jan-YoY)
o South Africa reserves data, central bank bond holdings
o Cambridge Energy Research Associates holds CERA Week (March 7-11) – watch for significant analysis and forecasts on the oil/gas industry from key speakers including US Energy Secretary Granholm and Senate Energy Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-WV) and leading global oil/gas CEOs
Tuesday, March 8:
> Political Events –
o US Secretary of State Blinken travels to Estonia to meet with President Karis, Prime Minister Kallas, and Foreign Minister Liimets
o Malaysia’s Johor state begins state elections
► o European Commission scheduled to unveil strategy to boost energy security
o UK Prime Minister hosts in London a meeting of the Visegrad 4 leaders: The Prime Ministers of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia
o EU holds Telecommunications Ministers hold an informal meeting
o Lesotho’s former Prime Minister Thabane and his 3rd wife appear in court on charges of murdering his 2nd wife in 2017
o The Head of US Strategic Command and the Head of US Space Command testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee re: spending requests for Space Command
o West African States Economy Community parliament to hold a five-day session to discuss regional security, Monrovia, Liberia
> Economic Events –
o United States balance of trade (Jan), exports, imports (Jan), wholesale inventories (Jan), API crude oil stock change
o Germany industrial production, industrial output
o Spain industrial production, industrial output
o Italy retail sales
o Euro Area government expenditures, household construction, employment, GDO, gross fix cap
o Taiwan CPI, exports (YoY), imports (YoY), trade balance (Feb)
o India FX reserves
o Japan Leading Economic Index (Jan), Eco Watchers survey (Feb)
o South Africa 4Q GDP; sale of broadband spectrum
o Brazil PPIs
o Canada balance of trade, exports, imports
o Japan GDP Q4, capital expenditures, external demand, private consumption
o Nigerian government presents requests for proposals for potential investors to establish Nigeria Air
o Apple Inc hosts an annual spring product launch where a new low-cost 5G iPhone is expected to be unveiled.
Wednesday, March 9:
> Political/Social/Religious Events –
o South Korean presidential elections
o US Vice President Harris visits Poland and Romania (March 9-11)
o Israeli President Herzog to visit Turkey (March 9-10) – the first visit to Turkey of an Israeli leader since 2008
o US House of Representatives Democrats gather in Philadelphia for issues summit; President Biden to address them
o US Securities and Exchange Commission meets to discuss cybersecurity enforcement
> Economic Events –
o United States mortgage data, EIA’s March gasoline stocks, crude oil stocks, heating oil, refinery crude runs, distillate stocks, crude oil stocks
o China CPI (YoY), PPI (YoY), M2
o France private-sector payrolls, total payrolls
o Italy industrial production
o South Africa Bureau for Economic Research Business Confidence Q1
o Russia CPIs, state budget balance, FX reserves (Feb)
o India consumer confidence (Feb)
o Brazil industrial production (Jan)
o Mexico inflation rate (Feb-YoY)
► o Japan PPIs, auction of 1.64 million barrels of crude oil from its national reserves
Thursday, March 10:
> Political Events –
o Colombian President Duque meets with President Biden to discuss regional and global security concerns
► o European Council heads of state Informal Meeting in Versailles to discuss Russia-Ukraine (March 10-11) – On the agenda is number of applications of former Soviet states to be fast-tracked into EU membership
o NATO finishes crisis management exercise
> Economic Events –
o United States core inflation rates (Feb), initial jobless claims
o China new Yuan loans (Feb), outstanding loan growth (Feb-YoY)
o Brazil business confidence (Mar)
o Euro Area macroeconomic projections
o Italy PPIs
o ECB main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility, deposit facility rate
o ECB President Lagarde holds a press conference
o South Africa current account balance, auctions mobile spectrum.
Friday, March 11:
> Political Events/Social Events –
o European Council informal meeting (continued)
o Chilean President-elect Gabriel Boric inaugurated.
o Colombia’s deadline to register for upcoming presidential elections.
o Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga to unveil coalition party for election
o Turkey hosts Antalya Diplomacy Forum
o Djibouti holds municipal elections
o 2nd Anniversary of World Health Organization (WHO) official declaring COVID a worldwide pandemic
o SXSW Conference kicks off tech industry track in Austin, Texas
> Economic Events –
o United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
o Germany CPIs, wholesale price index
o Spain CPIs
o Bank of France industrial sentiment
o Great Britain GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, balance of trade
o South Korea current account balance (Jan)
o Philippines exports (Jan-YoY), imports (Jan-YoY), trade balance (Jan), industrial production
o Malaysia industrial production (Jan-YoY), manufacturing sales (Jan-YoY),
o India industrial production (Jan-YoY)
o Brazil inflation rate
o Mexico industrial production (Jan-YoY)
o Canada unemployment figures
o Turkey current account, retail sales, industrial production
Saturday, March 12:
> Political Events –
o Turkmenistan holds presidential election following the resignation of President Berdymukhamedov
> Economic Events –
o China Foreign Direct Investment (Feb-YoY)
Sunday, March 13:
> Political Events –
o Colombia holds legislation elections
o Mali holds the first round of parliamentary and presidential elections
o US daylight savings time starts (move your clock forward one hour, lose an hour of sleep…)
o 9th Anniversary of Pope Francis’ election as Pontiff
> Economic Events –
o No significant events/data
Read Around the World in a Weekend: March 4, 2022
Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world. We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun. Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.
Russia/Ukraine
> Wilson Center “Cryptocurrency as the New Frontline in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”
Beyond the sphere of the traditional economy and finance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be a defining moment for the crypto economy—demonstrating the geopolitical implications of the crypto economy and cryptofinance in the context of global conflicts. In that regard, Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov requested that centralized cryptocurrency exchanges freeze Russian digital wallets to prevent financial transactions and payments by Russia through alternative means.
> Congressional Research Service (CRS) “Russian Cyber Units”
Russia has deployed sophisticated cyber capabilities to conduct disinformation, propaganda, espionage, and destructive cyberattacks globally. To conduct these operations, Russia maintains numerous units that are overseen by various security and intelligence agencies. The CRS explains in detail who they are what the focus on.
> Defense Business Brief “Arms to Ukraine: A Comprehensive List”
There has been an unprecedented amount of weaponry contributed to Ukraine to defend itself from Russian aggression. Here is a complete list of who has given and what they have given to date.
> International Institute for Strategic Studies “Putin’s Strategic Failure and the Risk of Escalation”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is emerging as a grand strategic mistake, argues Nigel Gould-Davies. As the situation becomes more volatile and less predictable, is escalation the only way forward for a weakened Putin?
> Foreign Policy “NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point – The Suwalki Corridor”
On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.
> The Atlantic “Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man”
Foreign Policy scholar Eliot Cohen asks why did so many observers misjudge Putin and Zelensky?
> Carnegie Institute for International Peace “How does this end?”
Amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, experts can spin out an infinite number of branching scenarios on how this might end. But scores of war games conducted for the U.S. and allied governments suggest that if we boil it down, there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine that will be extremely hard for the United States and many European allies to swallow.
> Adam Tooze’s Chartbook “Chartbook #91: What if Putin’s War Regime Turns to MMT?”
Sanctions are the chosen weapon of the West against Putin’s aggression. Rather than starting small, we have gone immediately to an attack on the central bank. In response, the Russian central bank has effectively stopped capital flows out of Russia and nationalized foreign exchange earnings of major exporters. It now requires Russian firms to convert 80 percent of the dollar and euro earnings into ruble. This helps to bolster the ruble’s value and provides a flow of foreign exchange into the country.
China
> Center for Strategic and International Studies “China’s Economy and Ukraine: All Downside Risks”
The potential short-term risks for China’s economy emanating from the Ukraine crisis are all manageable, but the longer the time horizon, the greater are the dangers to China’s economy and its international influence. There are almost no scenarios in which China comes out net ahead. China’s trade ties with Russia and Ukraine are not insignificant, valued in 2021 at $147 billion and $19 billion, respectively.
Germany
> Foreign Policy “Putin Accidentally Started a Revolution in Germany”
American Institute for Contemporary German Studies President Jeff Rathke explains how the invasion of Ukraine is triggering a dramatic reversal of Berlin’s grand strategy.
Egypt
> Middle East Institute “The Russia-Ukraine War Has Turned Egypt’s Food Crisis Into an Existential Threat to the Economy”
Egypt’s food security crisis due to the Ukraine crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt’s food security stems from the agricultural sector’s inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country’s domestic demand. Cairo relies on large volumes of heavily subsidized imports its 105 million citizens.
> Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism “Shadows of Death Loom Over Occupants of Buildings at Risk of Collapse”
In the past seven years, 500 Egyptians perished under the rubble due to the collapse of their residential buildings. This happened amidst the Egyptian government’s inaction to repair derelict properties or demolish them once their residents have been given alternative places to live. Citizens are increasingly angry at the government for their lack of response or enforcing greater enforcement of building codes.
Latin America
> France 24 “Russia Receives Venezuela’s ‘Strong Support’”
In rare backing for Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday assured Vladimir Putin of his "strong support" in a telephone call, according to a Kremlin statement. This leaves many observers wondering “what’s in it for Maduro and his regime?”
> Americas Society/Council of Americas “Latin American Leaders React to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”
See what has been said by countries like UN Security Council members Brazil and Mexico and Moscow allies Cuba and Venezuela.
Finance and Development
> Carmen Reinhart and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu/IMF “Shining a Light on Debt”
As the COVID-19 crisis lingers and Russia invades Ukraine, emerging market and developing economies are entering perilous waters that evoke memories of past debt defaults. Although all countries amassed debt to fight the pandemic, the economic recovery in these economies substantially lags their advanced economy counterparts.
Climate Change/Sustainability
> IPCC 6th Assessment Report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which was created by the UN Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization, published their 6th assessment report on the state of global climate.
The Absurd and Tragic Dreams of Monarchy in Mexico: “The Last Emperor of Mexico”
What do you get when you mix the mad dreams of a half-mad French King and a few eccentric Mexicans desiring monarchy with the bored lives of Hapsburg royalty in need of a purpose for being? You get the failed effort to establish an Emperor of Mexico - a fabulous, bizarre, and sad tale of France’s Napoleon III’s effort to grasp control of Mexico. To tell this story of weirdness, you need a master storyteller and Edward Shawcross is the man for the job. It is a taut, compelling story that is not well-known in the United States -indeed, it is not well known in most of Latin America or in Mexico itself.
But I get ahead of myself. First a quick synopsis which I hope you find intriguing enough to read this excellent history. In 1860, as the US Civil War was looming on the horizon, France’s Napoleon III thought he had an opportunity to curb what he saw as rising American imperialism. Appalled by the Monroe Doctrine which effectively kicked European powers out of the Western Hemisphere for good, Napoleon persuaded a young (and some would say gullible) Austrian Archduke Maximilian and his countess wife, Carlota, to follow his troops to Mexico to be crowned Emperor of Mexico.
France’s troops eventually crushed the existing Mexican government and soldiers - but not without suffering heavy losses to bullets and disease. Once in power, Maximilian and Carlota ruled with a cold ruthlessness which immediately turned what little support they might have had among the populace against them.
But beyond the Mexican people, there was another force to contend with: The United States. Although distracted badly by the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln was clearly aware Maximillian’s presence and the creation of a French threat to the US and the rest of the Hemisphere. Throwing their support behind Mexican resistance leader Benito Juárez, Maximilian soon found his power ebbing away.
I do not want to give away the rest of the book and will stop here in detailing this haunting tale. But it is an important tale that the Us does not get enough credit for: Throwing European monarchies and their dreams of returning monarchial empires (and the gold and silver that went with it) out forever. It is a story as much of a sad period of Mexico’s history as it is of the US’s determination to allow each nation of the Western Hemisphere to choose democracy. Mexico, of course, has gone through many permutations of crisis, democracy, violence, and change. But it is their choice - not the choice of a monarch in Europe.
This is a fantastic read and a critical one to better understand what shaped the Western Hemisphere we know today.
Washington Week Ahead: Russia/Ukraine, State of the Union Address, and Fed Chair Testimony - Could it Get Any Busier?
This is the most electric Monday morning in Washington we can remember in a long, long time. Congress has returned from being in recess last week for the President’s Day holiday completely focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the massive implications to geopolitics and global economics.
Moreover, Congress is preparing for the President’s State of the Union speech Tuesday night and Federal Reserve Board Chair Pro Tempore Jay Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday.
We would note this is going to be an unusual State of the Union (SOTU) address (as if the last two were not unusual enough due to COVID). What will be unusual? Specifically, leading up to the SOTU, we normally see a flurry of “leaked” policy ideas and initiatives from the White House – “trial balloons” – to get a sense of the reaction of Congress as well as voters. Not this year. It has been virtually “radio silence” from the White House.
So what should we expect? We believe this will be more a “State of the World” than a “State of the Union” speech. The President is likely going to focus heavily on Russia’s violent aggression in Ukraine, the growing unified reaction globally to Russia, and what he intends to do next to convince Russia to cease and desist.
On the domestic front, look for President Biden to push for some form of Build Back Better (BBB) – no price tag will be mentioned but we would anticipate in the $500 billion to $1 trillion range. This will come with President Biden adding to the sense of urgency for the US to develop alternative energy sources (remember, the US still is a significant buyer of Russian oil).
Additionally, we expect the President to talk about inflation and possible new programs his Administration intends to pursue to get it in check – this will likely include new releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPS) to help lower spiking gasoline prices.
The President will be giving his remarks in the face of new, historically low poll numbers. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday showed only 37 percent of voters approve of his job performance while 55 percent disapprove. Moreover, only 33 percent of voters support Biden’s handling of the Russia/Ukraine situation while 47 disapprove.
The President’s address will face not just the normal rebuttal speech from a designated Republican (this year’s rebuttal will be given by Iowa Governor Reynolds (D-IA) but for the first time a fellow Democrat: Representative Talib (D-MI) will deliver a formal response on behalf of Progressive Democrats complaining about the lack of progress on BBB as well as effectively highlighting the increasingly stark divisions within the Democratic Party between moderates and progressives.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony – both days – will be of maximum focus to not only the markets but Congress. Normally, what you see on the first day of congressional testimony is what you get the second day. But with global events moving as fast as they are, what Powell says on Wednesday may change by Thursday. Watching the Russian markets effectively collapse this morning and global corporations scramble to meet new sanction rules clearly has global markets on edge.
We will be sending updates this week as events change. Until then, please let us know if you have any questions.
Read Around the World Over The Weekend: February 25, 2022
Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world. We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun. Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.
Russia
> Morning Consult/Politico “Tracking Global Opinion on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”
Views in the US and EU of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is as you would expect: Highly negative. But key metrics of Russian sentiment suggest that Russians remain unfazed by the threat of sanctions and the newly launched war with Ukraine, though opinions could shift in the coming weeks if domestic anti-war protests continue.
> Harvard Business Review “The Cybersecurity Risks of an Escalating Russia-Ukraine Conflict”
With the looming threat of increased conflict in Ukraine, businesses around the world should be preparing now. Corporate security and intelligence teams have said they’re seeing an increase in cyber probes, and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the European Central Bank have both issued warnings about potential Russian cyberattacks. What should companies be doing? Here is a review of actions to take now.
> International Institute for Strategic Studies “If New Looks Could Kill: Russia’s Military Capability in 2022”
The deployment of and subsequent deployment of Russian troops and equipment to invade Ukraine has led to much attention on Russia’s armed forces and alarm over Moscow’s intentions towards Ukraine. Just how good is it?
> Vantage Point North “Quick Guide to Identifying the Russian Tanks Part 1”
This blog offers a quick guide the layman in understanding Russia’s battle tank models. As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming.
> Jamestown Foundation “Demographic Shifts Change Power Relations Within and Between Post-Soviet States”
Russia’s demographic decline reflects not only its falling birthrates and rising per capita deaths but also massive emigration. Moscow has attempted to compensate by promoting immigration, but so far, that attempt has been only partially successful and is likely to be less so in the coming years. Indeed, Russia’s population decline has been, above all, the story of the demographic collapse of the Russian nation. Last year, residents of the Russian Federation decreased by over a million as the result both of more deaths (partially due to COVID-19) and fewer births and the increasingly massive exodus of Russians to live and work abroad.
China
> The New Yorker “What is China Learning from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?”
Xi Jinping’s unusually close bond with Vladimir Putin puts China in risky company.
> Center for Strategic & International Studies “Shadow Risk”
What Crisis Simulations Reveal about the Dangers of Deferring U.S. Responses to China’s Gray Zone Campaign against Taiwan.
United States
> War on the Rocks Podcast “What Old Mental Maps Reveal About Competition Today”
Historian Hal Brands talks about his new book, Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great Power Rivalry Today. While the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China is frequently described as “a new Cold War,” Brands goes far deeper than a mere surface comparison to illuminate the ways in which the Cold War experience may help to guide American strategists in the competition with China and Russia.
> Gallup “US Public Sees Russia-/Ukraine Conflict as Critical Threat”
Before the invasion of Ukraine, amid rising tensions between Russia and the West, 52% of Americans see the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests. That's a change from 2015, after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, when less than half of U.S. adults, 44%, thought it posed that serious a threat. Those numbers are likely to spike since the invasion.
> Knight Foundation “Americans’ Attention to National News Lowest in Four Years”
Fewer Americans are paying attention to national news now than at any time since early 2018. In December 2021, a third of Americans (33%) said they pay “a great deal” of attention to national news. This percentage is the lowest in Gallup/Knight Foundation’s trend and a substantial drop from the 54% of Americans who said they paid a great deal of attention to national news in November of 2020.
Mexico
> Foreign Affairs “America Must Not Ignore Mexico’s Democratic Decay”
From the outset of his administration, Mexico President López Obrador has, in the view of many analysts, presented a vision of an imperial presidency and the whittling away of the checks and balances and autonomous institutions that a generation of Mexicans painstakingly spent several decades building.
Bolivia
> Wilson Center “Can Bolivia Jump-Start its Lithium Industry?”
Bolivia is home to the world’s largest lithium resources. Together with Chile and Argentina, the so-called “lithium triangle” holds almost 60 percent of the planet’s known lithium deposits, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But while Chile and Argentina are among the top global producers, alongside Australia and China, Bolivia has yet to produce lithium in commercial quantities.
Broader Middle East
> Center for Strategic & International Studies “Hedging, Hunger, and Hostilities: The Middle East after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”
The effects of Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine will ripple throughout the Middle East and North Africa. It will reveal new geostrategic alignments, compound food insecurity, and threaten to spark new military confrontations. If the confrontation between Russia and much of the rest of the world is prolonged, as seems likely, the more serious impacts may be in the longer term rather than the shorter term.
Turkey
> The National (UAE) “How Turkey is winning back the Eastern Mediterranean”
Faced with economic and pandemic-related challenges at home, Ankara is, nevertheless, riding high beyond its borders. Turkey is suddenly poised to cement its renewed position of prominence in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. It’s all rather tenuous, and one wrong move could still derail this peace train. But since late 2020, what Ankara has achieved with a shift in approach, a dash of desperation and a bit of chutzpah is impressive and shows just how fleeting isolation can be in this fast-changing geopolitical landscape.
Africa
> War on the Rocks “Why France Failed in Mali”
On Feb. 17, President Emmanuel Macron announced his decision to withdraw French forces from Mali. These troops form part of Operation Barkhane, a French anti-jihadist operation primarily focused on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. While it may be excessive to expect a French operation that peaked at just 5,100 troops to effectively check the spread of regional interlocking civil wars, France has not accomplished its aims. What accounts for the French failure?
> Institute for Security Studies (South Africa) “Going for gold leaves Senegal’s artisanal mining communities poorer”
Stopping mercury and cyanide use is vital, but so is preserving the country’s soil, rivers, and trees. In the Kédougou region, where 98 percent of Senegal’s gold mining sites are located, significant deforestation, soil degradation, and water, air, and ground pollution from chemicals used for gold processing are soaring.
India
> Foreign Affairs “India’s Faltering Nonalignment”
The Ukraine Crisis should and likely will force New Delhi to rethink its Russia policy.
Science/Technology
> Science “Microbes convert industrial waste gases into commodity chemicals”
Chemicals cost more than just money: Today, petrochemical production spews out nearly 2% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Now, researchers have taken an important step to vastly reduce that footprint, by using bacteria and waste gases from steel plants, rather than petroleum, as the starting ingredient for dozens of commodity chemicals.
> Nature “How a Space Rock became King Tut’s Dagger”
An X-ray scan helps to show how the pharaoh’s knife was forged — and suggests a prestigious pedigree.
Global Events this Week: February 27 - March 6, 2022
This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week. We hope this is helpful. Please let us know if you have any questions.
♦︎ = Events of particular focus/note
Sunday, February 27:
> Political Events –
o India’s Manipur state holds assembly elections
o Belarus scheduled to hold constitutional referendum allowing Belarus President Lukashenko to rule until 2035 among other changes
o India and Japan begin “Dharma Guardian 2022,” a 12-day annual joint military drill in India
> Economic Events -
o Japan retail sales (Jan); preliminary industrial production
Monday, February 28:
> Political Events –
♦︎ o Ukrainian representatives tentatively scheduled to meet Russian representatives somewhere near the Ukraine-Belarus border for peace talks “without preconditions” – unclear at this point who will represent each side but will not be the leaders of either Ukraine or Russia
o US Congress comes back into session after being out last week
o United Nations holds 5th session of the Environment Assembly in Nairobi to begin negotiations on a global plastics waste treaty
o The 49th session of the UN Human Rights Council Begins in Geneva to discuss the situation in Ukraine
o Brazil begins Carnival Celebration
o NATO scheduled to being “Brilliant Jump” exercises in Norway
o EU holds informal meetings of ministers re: cohesion policy
o 1st annual Middle East/North Africa Climate Week (MENACW2022)
o World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Body meeting in Geneva
o Spain hosts the Mobile World Congress – the world’s largest mobile phone showcase
> Economic Events –
o Japan January housing starts
o US January advance goods trade balance, preliminary wholesale inventories, February MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
o Spain flash HICP
o Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (Feb), retail trade (Jan), TD/MI inflation gauge (Feb)
o Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) business outlook (Feb)
o Vietnam CPI, retail sales, industrial output, exports/imports, trade balance
o Thailand current account balance
o Sri Lanka CPI
o India GDP (Oct-Dec YoY)
Tuesday, March 1:
> Political Events –
o President Biden delivers annual State of the Union to the US Congress
o The UAE assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council from Russia
o South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day
o Indian delegation to visit Pakistan for annual Indus Waters Treaty meeting
o India’s festival of Maha Shivratri (“the Night of Shiva”)
o China expands pilot plan for wealth management companies to better serve retirement savers to Beijing and Shanghai and other cities
o St. David’s Day (celebrating Wales and this year seen as a special celebration of COVID restrictions coming off)
> Economic Events –
o Italy PMIs
o Germany manufacturing PMI, CPI
o France PMIs
o Spain PMIs
o Euro Area PMI
o UK PMIs, mortgage approvals (Jan)
o US Q4 GDP, PMIs, ISM manufacturing (Feb)
o Canada Q4 GDP, PMI
o South Korea exports/imports, trade balance
o China NBS PMI Composite; Caixin PMI Manufacturing
o Indonesia Markit PMI Manufacturing
o Taiwan Markit PMI Manufacturing
o Thailand Markit PMI Manufacturing
o Vietnam Markit PMI Manufacturing
o Philippines Market PMI Manufacturing
o Indonesia PMI
o Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
o Australia house prices, building approvals, international trade/current account
Wednesday, March 2:
> Political/Social/Religious Events –
♦︎ o Federal Reserve Board Chair Pro Tempore Jay Powell testifies before House Financial Services Committee on Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
o Ash Wednesday observed globally (Orthodox faith observes it next week)
> Economic Events –
o Germany February unemployment, PMI
o Italy PMI
o Euro Area CPIs (Feb)
o US February ADP employment change
o Japan Ministry of Finance’s corporate surveys
o Australia Q4 GDP
Bank of Canada monetary policy decision
o Federal Reserve releases Beige
o Singapore PMI
o South Korea industrial production, service industry output, Markit PMI (Feb)
Thursday, March 3:
> Political Events –
o Federal Reserve Board Chairman Pro Tempore Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
o First meeting of the ‘Schengen Council’ of Home Affairs Ministers in Brussels to discuss asylum policy
o Tibet celebrates the Tibetan New Year
o World Book Day celebrations
o US celebrates 91st anniversary of “Star-Spangled Banner” being adopted as national anthem
> Economic Events –
o Malaysia Central Bank meeting
o Japan Consumer Confidence Surveys, jobless rate (Jan)
o Australia PMI (Feb), international trade in goods/services (Jan)
o New Zealand/Australia commodity price index (Feb)
o China PMIs
o Italy PMIs
o Spain PMIs
o France PMIs
o Germany PMIs
o Euro Area PMIs
o UK PMIs
o US PMIs
o Italy unemployment rate (Jan), rate, Euro Area January PPI, unemployment rate, weekly initial jobless claims, February ISM services, January factory orders
o ECB publish account of February meeting
Friday, March 4:
> Political Events –
o Final day for presidential candidates in France to formally announce their intention to run (first round of elections are April 10, run-off between two top contenders to be held April 24)
o China hosts 2022 Paralympic Winter Games in Beijing
> Economic Events –
o France industrial production (Jan)
o Germany retail sales, trade balance
o France industrial production, manufacturing production
o Italy GDP
o UK construction PMI
o Euro Area January retail sales, US February change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings
o NZ/ANZ Consumer confidence index (Feb)
o South Korea CPI
o Thailand CPI
o Singapore retail sales
o Hong Kong retail sales
o Philippines CPI
o India exports/imports, trade balance
Saturday, March 5:
> Political Events –
♦︎ o China holds Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress in Beijing to lay out major policy plans going forward
> Economic Events –
o No events/reports of note
Sunday, March 6:
> Political Events –
o US Army/Alaska National Guard host “Arctic Eagle-Patriot” military exercise in Alaska
o EU Development Ministers meet in Brussels
o Pope Francis presides at public consistory in the Vatican for the vote on several canonizations including that of Charles de Foucauld, a famed French soldier, explorer, priest, and martyr killed in the Sahara in 1916
o Anniversary of death of Josef Stalin in 1953
o US Day of Unplugging to remind people to disconnect from their devices
> Economic Events –
o No significant events/reports of note.
Read Around the World: February 18, 2022
Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world. We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun. Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.
Russia
> Chatham House “Why Minsk-2 cannot solve the Ukraine crisis”
Since tensions ratcheted between Ukraine and Russia, various policymakers have pushed for “Minsk implementation” as a potential diplomatic silver bullet. But that may not be the case.
> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “How Kazakhstan Fought Back Against Soviet Nuclear Tests”
Carnegie offers a photographic history of how Soviet leaders conducted more than 450 nuclear tests across the Kazakh steppes – forever changing the land and the people. But they also pushed back. Here is how.
> Russian Analytical Digest (Center for Security Studies, Zurich) “Russia’s Role in the Contemporary International Agri-Food Trade System”
This is a comprehensive report looking at Russia’s overall agricultural trade system – who they trade with regionally and bilaterally (including the US).
> Chainanalysis “Russian Cybercriminals Drive Significant Ransomware and Cryptocurrency-based Money Laundering Activity”
Russia is a leading country in cryptocurrency adoption, placing 18th overall on our Global Crypto Adoption Index. But the story of Russia’s cryptocurrency usage isn’t entirely positive. Individuals and groups based in Russia — some of whom have been sanctioned by the United States in recent years — account for a disproportionate share of activity in several forms of cryptocurrency-based crime.
> Foreign Affairs “What if Russia Wins?”
If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia. All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation. These two responsibilities—robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia—will not necessarily be compatible. The United States and its allies could find themselves deeply unprepared for the task of having to create a new European security order as a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
United States
> Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter “Joe Biden’s new Indo-Pacific Strategy: A View from Southeast Asia”
The Biden Administration just released an Indo-Pacific Strategy document, reiterating the importance of the region to the US. Even though the document states the US “will focus on every corner of the region, from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to South Asia and Oceania, including the Pacific Islands,” it’s obvious that Southeast Asia is very much in the heart of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. This Australian think tank writes that rather than trying to push ASEAN to confront China, the White House has made an important gesture for unity.
> University of Virginia Center for Politics “Ranking the States Demographically, from Most Republican-Friendly to Most Democratic-Friendly”
The Center looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting patterns: education level, race, and urbanization. When the states are rank-ordered by their composite scores on these 3 measures, both the top (Republican) and bottom (Democratic) halves of our 1-through-50 list, only 5 out of 25 states broke ranks by voting for the presidential candidate who was at odds with the state’s demographic tendencies. This suggests that these 3 demographic factors have a strong influence on presidential voting behavior.
> The New Yorker “Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez an Insider Now?”
Ocasio-Cortez was first elected to Congress three years ago but quickly emerged as a leader of the Progressive wing of the Democratic party. New Yorker Editor David Remnick interviews the political firebrand to discuss her political future and the future of the Progressive movement.
Italy
> Brookings Institution “Even After Mattarella’s Re-Election, Italy’s Political System Remains Unstable”
After a confusing presidential election process that led to expected winner Mario Draghi not winning the spot, markets are wondering what impact this will have on efforts to reform the EU’s fiscal rules.
China
> Breaking Defense “It’s not just 5G: China’s telecom strategy needs to be countered in space”
In Washington the consensus is well set that China’s strategy for 5G has created a telecommunications nightmare for American interests. What is less clear is how to proceed. In the following op-ed, the author suggests that the Biden administration needs to look up to space to provide a counter for China’s telecommunications plan.
> Foreign Affairs “Enemies of My Enemies: How Fear of China is Forging A New World Order”
Through a surge of repression and aggression, China has frightened countries near and far. It is acting belligerently in East Asia, trying to carve out exclusive economic zones in the global economy, and exporting digital systems that make authoritarianism more effective than ever. For the first time since the Cold War, a critical mass of countries face serious threats to their security, welfare, and ways of life—all emanating from a single source. And that is forcing them to come together to push back.
> Peterson Institute for International Economics “China Bought None of the Extra $200 billion of US Exports in Trump’s Trade Deal”
Two years ago, President Donald Trump signed what he called a "historical trade deal" with China that committed China to purchase $200 billion of additional US exports before December 31, 2021. In the end, China bought only 57 percent of the US exports it had committed to purchase under the agreement, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war.
North Korea
> Center for New American Security “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strength and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers”
Under heavy and sustained pressure from decades of economic sanctions, North Korea has rapidly expanded its illicit activity within the cyber domain. In particular, Pyongyang has demonstrated an increasing interest in using evolving financial platforms, such as cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, to compensate for the fiscal losses related to economic sanctions on more traditional forms of commercial activity. Since 2014, the Pyongyang-led cybercrime organization known as the Lazarus Group has transformed from a rogue team of hackers to a masterful army of cybercriminals and foreign affiliates, capable of compromising major national financial networks and stealing hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of virtual assets.
Latin America
> The Diplomat “Argentina Joins China’s Belt and Road”
The Argentine President’s attendance at the Beijing Winter Olympics brought big strides in the relationship with China. And in the face of a contentious new deal with the IMF, may suggest Argentina is going to get closer to China in the years ahead.
Africa
> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “Why the EU-AU Summit Could be a Turning Point”
The summit outcomes are unlikely to match the EU’s rhetoric on a new partnership of equals. But the two continents are starting to realize that they need each other and offer tremendous economic opportunities to the other.
Vietnam
> Center for Strategic & International Studies “Vietnam’s Twin Tech Challenge: Spearheading While Catching Up”
Vietnam is becoming a new digital powerhouse in Southeast Asia. The Google, Temasek, and Bain e-Conomy SEA 2021 report dubbed the 2020s the “Trillion Twenties” for Southeast Asia, as the region’s digital economy will pass the trillion-dollar valuation mark. Within the region, Vietnam has emerged as a center for dynamic growth. Although the gross merchandise value of Vietnam’s internet economy currently lags behind a number of its neighbors at an estimated $21 billion in 2021, that figure is expected to reach $150–$220 billion by 2030.
Technology/Blockchain/Crypto
> Georgetown Journal of International Affairs “Where the US Chips Fall: Fault Lines and Big Breaks in the Global Semiconductor Industry”
Modern life hinges on reliable access to semiconductor chips. Recent shortages have shaken critical supply chains, highlighting how precarious the global semiconductor industry is and how reliant the international community is on chips for their economic and national security.
> University College London/Global Economics Group “Can Crypto Fix Itself in Time?”
Professor David S. Evans, the author of this study, points out Payment methods have a high degree of inertia making change slow and challenging for new alternatives. So, it is not surprising that cryptocurrencies based on public blockchains are not broadly used 13 years after Bitcoin launched. The future of the largest public blockchains is limited, however, because they cannot, as is now widely acknowledged, provide stable currencies or operate efficient payment systems and other transactional services at scale. Their ability to correct these problems is impeded by the fact that they serve several masters—decentralization of authority in particular—and are not as nimble at making hard pivots as traditional startups given their consensus-based governance.
Sustainability/Alternative Energy
> Congressional Budget Office “How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax”
The US Congress has been looking at a carbon tax to help fund sustainable programs. The US Chamber of Commerce has endorsed the idea. But how would it work? The CBO published this presentation to explain.
COVID and Global Security
> NATO/Instituto Affair Internazionali “Pandemics and International Security: The Outlook for NATO”
When it comes to international security, the pandemic mostly acted as a catalyst of existing trends, such as the geopolitical competition between the United States (US) and China – which has worsened, also due to the outbreak of the disease. This joint study looks at the broader implications of COVID on global security issue
Global Events this Week: February 20 - 27, 2022
This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week. We hope this is helpful. Please let us know if you have any questions.
** = Events of particular focus/note
Sunday, February 20:
> Political Events –
o Munich Security Conference (concluding day)
o US and Thailand begin joint “Cobra Gold” military drills
o Russia-Belarus “Allied Resolve” military exercises scheduled to conclude
o India’s Punjab state to hold assembly elections
o Bangladeshi and US Air Force to begin six-day joint exercises
o German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to visit Senegal to discuss energy access cooperation
> Economic Events -
o Saudi Arabia set to list $3.5 billion government bonds
Monday, February 21:
> Political Events –
o Syrian Foreign Minister Mekdad meets with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow
o EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss Russian military buildup
o EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement Joint Committee to meet
o EU Agriculture & Fisheries Council meets in Brussels
o Informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers in Brussels
o Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) Plenary Meetings begin in Paris (and go until March 4th)
o US President’s Day holiday – US Congress out of session for the week
o Australia fully reopens borders to vaccinated travelers
> Economic Events -
o Germany PPI (YoY Jan and MoM Jan), Markit services, manufacturing, services, composite PMIs
o Australia manufacturing PMI
o Japan PMIs (Feb), central government debt (Jan)
o Euro area PMIs (Feb)
o UK PMIs (Feb)
o Russia monetary policy report
o China loan prime rates, house price index (Jan)
o South Korea consumer confident (Feb)
Tuesday, February 22:
> Political Events –
o France hosts Indo-Pacific Forum in Paris
o UN Security Council to discuss the Central African Republic and UN Peacekeeping mission in the country
o EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels
> Economic Events –
o US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb), US Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Feb), S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City (Dec), Markit PMIs flash (Feb)
o German IFO Survey (Feb)
o Turkey business confidence (Feb), capacity utilization (Feb)
o UK public sector net borrowing (Feb), CBI industrial trends orders (Feb)
o India loan growth (Jan)
o Italy inflation rate
o South Africa inflation rate, unemployment rate (Q4)
o Argentina balance of trade (Jan)
o South Korea business confidence (Feb)
o Australia construction work done (Q4), wage price index (Q4), wage-price indexes
o India M2 money supply (Jan)
Wednesday, February 23:
> Political Events –
o UN General Assembly is scheduled to hold a debate on Ukraine.
o Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan visits Russia to meet President Putin
> Economic Events –
o Euro area CPI (Jan)
o US MBA mortgage rates/applications/refi’s/market index
o Germany GfK consumer confidence (March)
o France Business Confidence (Feb)
o Brazil mid-month CPIs, current account and foreign direct investment (Jan)
o South Korea PPIs, interest rate decision
o South African Finance Minister delivers FY2022 budget statement to Parliament
o World Trade Organization holds General Council meeting in Geneva
o Australia wage price index, building cap. Index, plant machinery cap., private cap.
o Argentina economic activity (Dec), leading indicator (Jan)
Thursday, February 24:
> Political Events –
o US Secretary of State Blinken tentatively set to meet Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Geneva
o EU Competitiveness Council meets in Brussels
o Eurogroup meeting in Paris
> Economic Events –
o US GDP (4Q), personal consumption (4Q), new homes sales (Jan), employment numbers, PCE price numbers, real consumer spending figures, Energy Information Agency gasoline/oil figures
o Brazil balance of trade (Dec), unemployment, banking lending numbers
o France consumer confidence (Feb), industrial sales (Dec)
o Italy industrial sales
o South Africa PPIs
o Canada CFIB business barometer (Feb), manufacturing sales, average weekly earnings (Dec)
o Turkey’s Central Bank meeting, FX reserve numbers
o UK CBI distribute trades (Feb)
o New Zealand trade balance (Jan)
o Australia CAPEX (Q4)
o Mexico Central bank meeting minutes, mid-month core inflation, retail sales
Friday, February 25:
> Political Events –
o Italian Prime Minister Draghi tentatively to meet Russian President Putin in Moscow
o Informal meeting of EU finance and economic ministers in Brussels
> Economic Events –
o US Durable goods, PCE Core Deflation (Jan), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb), home sales (Jan), US Personal income/spend (Jan)
o Euro Area consumer confidence/services/economic sentiment reports (Feb), loans to households, loans to companies
o Japan leading economic index (final), coincident index (final)
o Germany GDP growth rate, import prices (Jan)
o France unemployment figures
o Canada wholesale sales (Jan), budget balance (Dec)
o Spain business confidence (Feb)
o Russia industrial production (Jan)
o Brazil budget balance
o India FX Reserves (Feb), bank loan growth
o Mexico balance of trade (final), economic activity (final)
o Turkey economic confidence index (Feb)
o France PPIs, GDP growth, household consumption figures
o New Zealand retail sales (Q4)
o Argentina consumer confidence
Saturday, February 26:
> Political Events –
o No significant events of note
> Economic Events –
o No events/reports of note
Sunday, February 27:
> Political Events –
o India’s Manipur state holds assembly elections
o Belarus scheduled to hold a referendum on Constitution
> Economic Events –
o Japan retail sales, industrial production
Australia Inflation gau
The CFA Society of Boston…
Very proud to have had the chance to brief the Certified Financial Analysts (CFA) Society of Boston today. A wide ranging and wonderfully intellectually challenging conversation today covering Seemingly everything: geopolitics to elections 2022 to trying to define the “unknown unknowns.” Wrapped it up with a superb question period from some of the very best in the business. Thank you CFA Society of Boston for giving me the opportunity to spend time with you today! It was a great pleasure.
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