The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosting An Extraordinary Meeting with Ukrainian President and Six European Leaders, Israel Poised to Approve A Controversial New West Bank Housing Plan, China Seeks a Deal with India on Their Border Dispute, and Global Central Bankers Converge on Jackson Hole

The busiest August we can remember in a long time looks to intensify this week.  Following President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump will host Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly longer-term peace terms.  In an extraordinary move, Zelensky will be accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

It appears, according to numerous reports, that President Trump is considering unprecedented US security guarantees for Ukraine in return for a peace deal.  But the entire situation remains tense and very much in flux.  Markets will be watching all of this closely tomorrow to get some indication of movement one way or another.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Higher Planning Committee will be considering a highly controversial plan to allow the building of 3,400 new homes in the West Bank for Israeli settlers.  The building plan, known as the E1 Settlement Project, would take place east of Jerusalem and is likely to be approved.  By doing so, it is seen as likely to block efforts to establish a Palestinian State, as Palestinian leaders had seen the land where the homes would be built as where they would build their capital.  EU leaders have urged Israel to refrain from approving the deal.

In Asia this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit New Delhi for the first time in three years to discuss possible measures to reduce troops on the Himalayan border, further reducing tensions between the two nations.   Later in the week, India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jainshankar, will travel to Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting comes after President Trump slapped 25% secondary tariffs on India on top of the existing 25% tariffs for their trade in Russian oil.   Markets will be watching closely for any movement between India and Russia – either pledging to continue the oil purchases or suggesting a slowdown.

The global economic radar screen this week is also a busy one.  The big event is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this week where central bankers from around the world will gather to talk and speak to the theme of event ““Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”    We are reminded that at last year’s Symposium, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell said it was time to lower rates, which the Fed then followed through on.  Will we hear him say something similar this year in his speech a month in advance of the Fed’s FOMC September meeting?

Also happening concurrently with the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, bringing together top crypto business leaders, US regulators, and members of Congress. 

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the Americas,  the US FOMC minutes from July are released on Wednesday, and  Canada releases July CPI figures on Tuesday.  In Asia, China’s central bank interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, South Korea’s July PPI on Thursday, and Japan’s July CPI data on Friday.  And in Europe, the UK releases July CPI on Wednesday, Germany’s June manufacturing index is out Tuesday, and July PPI data on Wednesday, Eurozone HICP inflation data on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PMI data for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and the UK. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

· The International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) conference takes place in Montreal, Canada, from August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Summit of the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) holds its 45th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

·       Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 18, 2025

Global

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House to discuss Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and next steps toward a possible cease fire in the Ukraine war.  Also attending the meeting will be ATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

·       Canada holds by-elections which could see Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre return to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

·       El Salvador PPI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India to discuss drawing down troops at their disputed border.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold their annual military drills, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield. About 18,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the live-fire exercises amid North Korea's warnings of reprisals for what it says is a "direct military provocation.”

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will visit Japan for meetings with Japanese officials to discuss bolstering their strategic relationship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       India Unemployment Rate (July)

·       China FDI (YTD) (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Financial Times Business Book of the Year longlist announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a visit to Armenia and Belarus for a two-day visit.  He will then travel on to Pakistan for bilateral meetings.

·       US envoys Thomas Barrack and Morgan Ortagus visit Beirut, Lebanon for meetings on how to further the peace process in the country and also further urge the disarming of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel group M23 to sign a peace agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Global

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) begins in Yokohama, Japan and runs through August 22. The conference is led by Japan and co-hosted by the United Nations, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Bank and African Union Commission (AUC). The theme of the conference is “Co-create innovative solutions with Africa”.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Building Permits (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Redbook (August/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index/ RBA Connolly Speech

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at Teton Village, Wyoming.  The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”  You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/15)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono will host German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Jakarta.

·       The Thailand Electronics Circuit Asia 2025 trade show kicks off in Bangkok. The three-day event will bring together hundreds of companies from across the tech supply chain, with a major focus on printed circuit boards, a key component used in all types of electronic devices.

·       The Taiwan Automation Intelligence and Robot Show opens in Taipei. Exhibitors at the four-day fair will show off the latest advances in smart manufacturing, robotics, artificial intelligence, and more.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor (business services) Michelle McPhee and assistant governor (financial system) Brad Jones take part in an online panel discussion at The Future of Money webinar.

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/08)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends a meeting of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Russian central bank publishes household inflation expectations.

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ PPI Output (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)/ Residential Property Prices (June)

·       Russia PPI (July)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel's Higher Planning Committee will vote on the E1 West Bank settlement plan which could allow 3,400 more Israeli settlement homes in the area.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a briefing on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/16)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment & New Orders & Prices Paid (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/20)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (July)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)               

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       India HSBC Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam S. Jaishankar.  They will discuss “key issues on our bilateral agenda, as well as key aspects of cooperation within international frameworks." 
Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

·       France HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Construction Output (June)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

Friday, August 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (August)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/22)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Criminal Court is due to hand down its verdict on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a lese majeste case. The 75-year-old Thaksin is accused of insulting the monarchy during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo in May 2015.

·       In South Korea, the People Power party to decide a new leader from a shortlist of four at its national convention. The embattled conservative party’s support has plummeted after disgraced former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Euro Area     ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung will make his first overseas trip for a bilateral summit when he travels to Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. After his Japan trip, Lee will head to Washington for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, August 25.

·       Taiwan holds a referendum on whether to restart its Maanshan nuclear power plant, the shutdown of which marked the end of the island's atomic energy era in May. The opposition Taiwan People's Party pushed for the vote on the grounds that reactivation is necessary for energy stability and security. President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has said he will vote "no." The referendum coincides with a handful of districts voting in recall elections against opposition Kuomintang lawmakers, after a larger first set of recall attempts all failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion at the annual Economic Policy Symposium entitled “The policy implications of labor market transition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.