The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India,  Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings

April 20 - 27, 2025

A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation.  However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund  (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings.   The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).  

But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US.  We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday.  This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs.  Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday.  Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda.  Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week.  But there are several important economic reports worth watching.  Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.

In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data.  In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates.  In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 21, 2025

Global

·       Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

·       The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C. 

·       Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

·       USA CB Leading Index (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.

· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.

·       Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3.  Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

·       SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.

·       The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.

·       EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.

·       Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give  introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 25, 2025 

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.

·       The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.

·       Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.  

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad,  and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time.  The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in.  At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.  

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group.  This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up. 

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.  The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking.  We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually).  You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia.  The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions.  Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).  He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24.   More than 2,500 people are expected to attend.   You can see the full agenda HERE.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.  Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

·       It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.  Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

·       In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them.  This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

·       Greece Current Account (November)

·       Italy Construction Output (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

·       Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio.  The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

·       USA Redbook (January/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

·       Slovenia PPI (December)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

·       Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks.   The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

·       Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

·       Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Canada,  today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (November)

·       France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

·       Chile PPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

·       Paraguay PPI (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

·       Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session.  Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.