Read Around the World in a Weekend April

April 29, 2022

RUSSIA

• Microsoft Blog “The hybrid war in Ukraine”

  Microsoft released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks they have observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what we’ve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. Starting just before the invasion, we have seen at least six separate Russia-aligned nation-state actors launch more than 237 operations against Ukraine – including destructive attacks that are ongoing and threaten civilian welfare. The destructive attacks have also been accompanied by broad espionage and intelligence activities. 

• Rand Corporation “Russia’s Tragic Failure to Reform Its Economy”

  Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions will likely devastate Russia's economy. If the country had taken a more productive economic course over the past two decades, it might be looking toward a different future—one in which economic reforms had more tightly integrated Russia with the economically advanced countries, enhanced Russian influence and power, and built global trust. Instead, Russia has cast the West as its enemy, and its influence, power, trust, and reputation are shattered.

• Foreign Affairs “What Does the West Want in Ukraine?”

  Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass asks the question of how success in Ukraine will be defined and argues it needs to be done now – before it is too late.

China

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “US-China Technological ‘Decoupling’: A Strategy and Policy Framework”

  Washington has awakened to find the United States deeply technologically enmeshed with its chief long-term rival. America built those technology ties over many years and for lots of good reasons. China’s tech sector continues to benefit American businesses, universities, and citizens in myriad ways—providing critical skilled labor and revenue to sustain U.S. R&D, for example. But that same Chinese tech sector also powers Beijing’s military build-up, unfair trade practices, and repressive social control. What should we do about this? 

• Rhodium Group “Chinese FDI in Europe: 2021 Update”

  Chinese outbound investment to the rest of the world stalled in 2021. While overall global FDI rebounded strongly, Chinese outbound FDI edged up by just 3 percent to USD 114 billion (EUR 96 billion). Meanwhile, China’s global outbound M&A activity slipped in 2021 to a 14-year low, with completed M&A transactions totaling just EUR 20 billion, down 22 percent from an already weak 2020.

India

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “What is in Our Interest”: India and the Ukraine War”

  As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, India’s national interests have so far dictated a position of formal neutrality. Here are the factors New Delhi faces in balancing its foreign policy priorities.

• Brookings Institution Podcast “Why globalization is shifting in favor of India, not China”

  Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute and Center for Contemporary South Asia, and former chief economic advisor to the Government of India, talks with host David Dollar about a range of trade and foreign relations issues India faces. In particular, he explains why globalization is shifting in India’s favor rather than China’s, how India views trade relations with China, Russia, and the West, and prospects for continued good relations with the United States, especially as India takes a more neutral stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Pakistan

• The Diplomat Podcast  “What’s Driving Pakistan’s Political Crisis?”

  Pakistan’s political arena is in turmoil. Prime Minister Imran Khan, facing a no-confidence vote, made a last-ditch attempt to avoid his fate by dissolving Parliament altogether, alleging a foreign plot headed by the U.S. to oust him. The Supreme Court intervened, allowing the vote to proceed, but Khan and his PTI are refusing to recognize the new government. Most PTI lawmakers resigned, leaving Pakistan’s National Assembly with 100 open seats. Meanwhile, the Pakistani military, the “hidden hand” behind national politics, has attempted to remain neutral – but its lack of support helped crown Khan’s replacement.

Lebanon

• Carnegie Middle East Center “Resurrecting Arafat in Beirut?”

  Hamas, with Hezbollah’s help, is building up a military presence in Lebanon, whose ultimate consequences could be devastating.

Iran

•  Carnegie Sada “The Geopolitics of the Iran-Qatar Electricity Grid Connection”

  Last February, during Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to Qatar, the two countries agreed to connect electricity grids. Currently, Iran’s electricity network is connected to Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For Iran, this is a step towards strengthening energy diplomacy, but without a change in Iran’s foreign policy — that is, without the removal of sanctions and attracting foreign investment — it cannot use its full potential in the energy sector and, ultimately, will not be able to increase its influence on the international stage.  

Africa

• Council on Foreign. Relations “How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa’s Energy Transition”

  The Russian invasion of Ukraine will shift the geopolitics of decarbonization, with particularly stark implications for energy politics in Africa.

• Foreign Affairs “Rebels Without a Cause: The New Face of African Warfare”

  In the past, most armed groups on the continent were focused on seeking to topple governments or secede and found new countries.  But the new face of many African conflicts today is one where those taking up arms are more likely to do so as a means of bargaining over resources.

Latin America/Caribbean

• IMF Blog “Latin America Faces Unusually High Risks”

  The War in Ukraine, higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, economic decelerations of key trading partners, and social discontent may dim growth prospects.

• Center for Strategic and International Studies “The Caribbean in the Crossfire”

  Between Covid-19, Narcotics, China, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, the Caribbean is facing unprecedented challenges – all of which should be of maximum concern to the United States.

• Americas Quarterly “Latin America Doesn’t Want a New Cold War”

  Regional governments should take steps to ensure they are “not once again a battleground for larger powers,” an Argentine scholar writes.

Read Around the World in a Weekend: March 25, 2022

Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world.  We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun.  Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.

Russia/Ukraine/Belarus

•  OMFIF “Russia sanctions, the renminbi, and the dollars future – The red herring returns”

  The author, a former senior US Treasury official, argues that with the imposition of severe financial sanctions on Russia, rumblings that China will provide Russia a lifeline, and rumors Saudi Arabia will denominate oil prices in renminbi, markets are once again abuzz about the dollar’s future global financing role. The red herring is back!

• Rand Corporation “Russia’s Problems with Military Professionalization”

  The internet is littered with reports of Russian soldiers seemingly stalled in convoys, deserting their units, and being unable to maintain their equipment. An effort to collect and confirm the instances of Russia's abandoned, destroyed, and captured military systems had to be terminated due to the inability of its contributors to keep up with the pace at which it is happening. While the internet is not reality, some may wonder if this is really the same Russian military that has been feared around the world for decades?

• Rand Corporation “Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality”

  First published in September 2021 (and included in an earlier Read Around the World), we thought it worthwhile to reconsider this large review and assessment of Russia’s – and Putin’s – Grand Strategy going forward.

•  Chatham House’s Belarus Initiative “Poll of Belarusians’ Views on the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine”

  The poll, conducted between March 5-14, showed only three percent of the urban population support Belarusian troops being involved in the war on Ukraine. And a majority of them do not support Russian troops being based in Belarus as well expecting the war will have “serious socio-economic consequences” on their way of life.

United States

•  Defense One “State of Defense”

  The daily defense publication takes an in-depth look at the state of the US Defense posture, branch by branch, in the face of growing security risks around the world.

•  Foreign Policy “US Grand Strategy After Ukraine”

  Seven leading foreign policy strategists weigh in on how the war will shift US foreign policy in the short, medium, and long term.

•  AmCham EU “The Transatlantic Economy 2022”

  The Transatlantic Economy 2022 presents the most up-to-date facts and figures about the economic relationship. The study includes dedicated profiles for 30+ European countries and all US states. This year’s study features new insights into how the war in Ukraine affects the transatlantic relationship, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, prospects for the recovery, global supply chain issues, relations with China and the transatlantic energy economy.

• University of Virginia Center for Politics “Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls”

  One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida.  However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that this growing voting bloc is not necessarily trending one way or the other. Presidential incumbency appears to have a stronger influence on Latino voters than on other demographic groups.

Africa

• Institute for Security Studies (South Africa) “Africa holds the answers to Europe’s wartime energy crisis”

  Europe needs to swap its dependence on fossil energy from Russia with renewables from Africa. For example, Theoretically, the Sahara could supply four times the world’s current energy demand. Even a fraction of that could replace the energy from Russian gas imports. Solar can also ramp up rapidly, perhaps beating the plans to build more liquefied natural gas terminals.

Latin America

•   Wilson Center “China’s Investments and Land Use in Latin America”

  The report argues that in order to understand the environmental impacts of China’s trade and investment in Latin America requires nuance. It focuses on multiple factors behind the environmental degradation associated with the soy, copper, beef, and pork industries: the nature of the resource, local legal frameworks, and global industry standards. The report highlights cases in which poor decision-making by both Chinese companies and Latin American countries is driving resource extraction to a tipping point.

Middle East

• Carnegie Middle East Center “Only Going to Get Worse”

  In this YouTube interview, the chief of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) at the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) discusses the growing challenge of the water scarcity situation in the Middle East and Africa.

Book Recommendation of the Week:

The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, And the Pillage of an Empire

(by William Dalrymple, Bloomsbury Press 2019, 552 pages)

Imagine a giant private equity firm that operates with complete impunity, no government regulation or oversight, no bounds on their greed. They take over a large swath of a foreign country and begin to mint money, figuratively and literally. And they also have their own army, which they deploy to subdue the locals whenever they complain too much.

Welcome to the East India Company, which we learn all about in the superb  “The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, and the Pillage of An Empire,” written by William Dalrymple.

A corporate history that grabs you and gives you a vivid, and at many points, horrifying portrait of arguably the most powerful companies in history.

What makes Dalrymple’s book particularly interesting – and differentiates it from numerous other histories of the East India Company – is his deep and thorough research of Indian source material. He gives a fresh, holistic account of the Company not just from the Western perspective but also from the Indian perspective. And that is important because with it comes an illuminating portrait of the majesty and richness of the various Indian, Iranian, and Afghani dynasties that thrived – and died – during the Company’s operations. 

What I found rather stunning in Dalrymple’s history of the Company is something I suspect most readers will not expect: The Company was, by and large, a rather poorly run operation. There are numerous instances of near-collapse – once almost cratering the entire British economy and forcing the collapse of multiple leading British and Continental European banks (which Dalrymple cleverly compares to the 2008 financial crisis).  

But the money the Company  made in the good years. Oh, the money! Staggering sums even by today’s standards.  Many a poor or lower-middle-class English boy with a sense of adventure struck out to Bombay or Madras or some other balmy place in India where they Company operated, returning to London years later filthy rich (albeit, only if they survived the near constant warfare and deadly sicknesses).  The most prominent of all of them being Lord Clive. Richard Clive was born in 1725, one of thirteen children to a modestly successful lawyer. He proved to be a violent, nasty boy – even running a protection racket as a teenager. With these rough skills and dangerous disposition, he journeyed to India in 1744 as a simple clerk.

I do not want to ruin Dalrymple’s extraordinary and devastating portrayal of Clive in India, but I’ll tease you with this: when all was said and done, Clive ended up being the wealthiest man in all of Europe. He became Lord Clive, 1st Baron Clive, a man so rich that his wife’s pet ferret even had its own diamond-studded necklace. But money doesn’t buy happiness, and clearly, Clive never found it. He ended up killing himself in 1774 at his massive Berkley Square mansion at the age of 49 by stabbing himself in the throat with a penknife.

This is an important book to understand how Britain gained much of its long-term wealth that survives even today and how India – once a great empire itself – was devastated by the Company and still struggles with the repercussions. It is beautifully written with countless colorful stories of battles and palace intrigue, transporting the reader to the place and a time long ago.  It is indeed a great read.ke it stand out

Read Around the World in a Weekend: February 11, 2022

Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world.  We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun.  Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.

Russia/China  

>      Atlantic Council “The world’s top two authoritarians have teamed up. The US should be on alert”

The two leading authoritarians of our time have declared unprecedented common cause—perhaps even a de facto security alliance—with aspirations of shaping a new world order to replace the one fashioned by the United States and its partners after World War II. Putin and Xi put those aspirations to paper (see next post below).

>      Office of the President of Russia “Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development”

Following their meeting in Beijing last week, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi released a 5,300-word joint statement outlining their vision for the world.

>      Foreign Policy “China Can’t Carry the Russian Economy”

Putin’s courting of Beijing has paid more diplomatic than economic dividends.  If the world – and the EU in particular – do implement severe sanctions as the result of an invasion of Ukraine, China cannot pick up the economic difference.

Ukraine

>      Center for Strategic and International Studies “Hunger on the Heels of a Possible Ukraine Invasion”

Both Russia and Ukraine are suppliers of, and markets for, major agricultural commodities. If diplomacy fails, how could sanctions and conflict affect food security—for these countries, the region, and the United States?  Of note: 70 percent of Ukraine is dedicated to agriculture and 95 percent of Ukraine’s wheat production is winter wheat.

 United States

>      The White House “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States”

Late this afternoon, the White House released its long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy blueprint.  The report is the first regional strategy of the Biden Administration and is seen as the plan for dealing with an increasingly aggressive China.  Alongside the report, the White House released an executive summary/fact sheet which you can read here.

>      FiveThirtyEight “What Redistricting Looks Like in Every State”

Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process at this point. So far, redistricting has created 11 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, three fewer Republican-leaning seats and eight fewer highly competitive seats. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as New York as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in Ohio and North Carolina.

China

 >      The Atlantic “One by One, My Friends Were Sent to the Camps”

If you took an Uber in Washington, D.C., a couple of years ago, there was a chance your driver was one of the greatest living Uyghur poets. Tahir Hamut Izgil arrived with his family in the United States in 2017, fleeing the Chinese government’s merciless persecution of his people. Tahir’s escape not only spared him near-certain internment in the camps that have swallowed more than 1 million Uyghurs; it also allowed him to share with the world his experience of the calamity engulfing his homeland. Here is what he witnessed.

>      China File “A Vast Network of ‘New Era Civilization Practice Centers’ Is Beijing’s Latest Bid to Reclaim Hearts and Minds”

Since 2018, the Chinese Communist Party has opened thousands of centers across the country aimed at bringing party ideology and governance down to the neighborhood level. "By intertwining practical services with Party theory,” the planning documents show, the CCP seeks to reassert itself as a source of well-being and meaning in individual and collective life, restoring an intimacy between 'the masses' and their rulers that decades of economic liberalization have worn thin.

>      Science Magazine “A Beijing think tank offered a frank review of China’s technological weaknesses.  Then the report disappeared”

The study, written and published by Peking University’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies and overseen by the Institute’s President, was quickly removed from its website after being published.  However, copies of the report were downloaded and are being widely circulated. Specifically, the report says scientific “decoupling” would harm more than the United States. It acknowledges that China still lags the United States in key technologies—particularly high-end semiconductors, operating systems and software, and aerospace.

India

 >      Foreign Policy “Modi’s Foreign-Policy Juggling Act”

Prime Minister Modi put India on the map as a great power.  But strategy problems are piling up and not getting any easier with the growing Russia/Ukraine tensions and China’s economic and political growth in the region.

Latin America

>      The National Interest “Will Russia Send Missiles to Cuba?”

Russia-watchers have been quick to invoke the Cuban Missile Crisis precedent, which implies that Russia would station nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles of some type in the Caribbean. But history may not repeat itself.

>      FIU Digital Commons “The Return of Geopolitics: Latin America and the Caribbean in an Era of Strategic Competition”

It has become clear that the idea of focusing U.S. foreign policy on strategic competition enjoys widespread bipartisan support. U.S. statecraft is increasingly directed at the threats posed by powerful state rivals—especially China—as opposed to Salafi-Jihadist extremists and other non-state actors. Yet geopolitical rivalry is not simply something that happens “over there” in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. It also happens “over here,” within the Western Hemisphere.

>      Americas Quarterly “What to Maker of Peru’s Latest Crisis”

In his first six months in office, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo has sworn in three different cabinets. And his newest Prime Minister resigned only four days after being sworn into office.  What to make of the political chaos and the looming risk of Peruvian Congress moving to impeach Castillo?

Africa

 >      Brookings Institute “Addressing Africa’s Duel Challenges: Climate Change and Electricity Access”

Africa is working to address a number of sustainability challenges including preserving the forests of the Congo Basin – second only to the Amazon to absorbing CO2 emissions. But there is another challenge: Nearly 600 million Africans lack access to electric power.

>      Carnegie Endowment for International Affairs “Latest Milestone for the Africa Continental Free Trade Area: The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System”

The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) was launched January 13th and is seen likely to substantially reduce dependence on external currencies, and the associated financial volatilities.  Moreover, cross-border transactions such as remittance transfer by migrants within Africa and exchanges among small businesses should be easier, quicker, and cheaper.

Technology

 >      Fortune Magazine “Is the metaverse takeover inevitable?”

Will most virtual meetings move from 2D camera image grids to the metaverse – a 3D space with digital avatars?

 >      The Atlantic “Beware the FOMO Bullies of Technology”

Are we living through a replay of the `90’s when most people just didn’t get “this internet thing” as we move to the Web3?

 >      AtlasVPN “TikTok Tracks Your Data the Most Out of Social Media Apps”

The Virtual Private Network (VPN) secure service conducted a survey of all the leading social apps and reports TikTok does the most tracking of users followed by YouTube.

 Sustainability/Alternative Energy

 >      Fast Company “Inside the fight over electrifying the Postal Service’s cute new trucks”

Despite a Biden administration to electrify the entire federal fleet by 2027, the USPS is about to make a large purchase of new, gas-powered trucks. And even the electric version the post office is planning is arousing suspicion.

 >      Yale Environment 360 “It’s Not Just Climate: Are We Ignoring Other Causes of Disasters?”

Climate change is increasingly seen as the cause of natural catastrophes, from floods to famines. But a growing number of scientists are cautioning that blaming disasters solely on climate overlooks the poor policy and planning decisions that make these events much worse.

 >      Fast Company “These 12-mile-deep holes could convert power plants from fossil fuel to geothermal”

Using a new technology that employs energy waves to melt rock, the wells can do deeper than standard geothermal, potentially making the renewable energy work anywhere on earth.

Reading Around the World Over the Weekend - December 3, 2021

India

·       Foreign Policy “Modi’s Growing Crackdown on Bollywood”

India’s film industry is under growing pressure to bend it knew to Hindu nationalists.

·       Foreign Policy Research Institute Podcast “Episode 8: India’s Status as a Great Power”

How successful has India been at securing its position as a great power? In this episode of Global Demons, Robert D. Kaplan and Ashley J. Tellis discuss India’s status as an Asian great power, its future under Narendra Modi, and how it deals with the U.S.- China Rivalry.

EU & UK

·       Der Spiegel “The First Fractures Become Apparent in Berlin”

The coalition talks were secretive, and the three parties involved sought to exude unity and harmony. Now that Germany's next coalition agreement has been presented, though, fractures are becoming apparent. And surprisingly, the Greens may not be the Social Democrats' favorite child.

·       Politico EU “Europe Reins in Big Tech: What You Need to Know”

Ministers sign off on new EU tech rulebook to curb abuse and harm online. But what does that really mean for the tech sector and tech users?

·       The Spectator “Is this the beginning of the end for Nicola Sturgeon?”

Sturgeon has been the long-time leader of Scotland’s Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) and helped lead the failed vote for independence.  Now, there is growing speculation her tenure on top of the party has peaked.

·       Nouriel Roubini & Brunello Rosa “Why Italy’s Presidential Election Matters”

With its poor track record of managing EU funds, Italy’s recovery plan will be a major test for the future of EU policymaking more generally. While it is widely agreed that Prime Minister Mario Draghi must remain on the scene to oversee the plan’s implementation, in what capacity would he be most useful?

North Africa

·       The New Yorker “The Secretive Prisons that Keep Migrants out of Europe”

Tired of migrants arriving from Africa, the EU has created a shadow immigration system that captures them before they reach its shores and sends them to brutal Libyan detention centers run by militias.

Latin America

·       Americas Quarterly “Why Lulu vs. Bolsonaro in Brazil Leave Little Room for Others”

Five reason a “third way” candidate will struggle to break through in a polarized contest.

China 

·       VOX EU/CEPR “The Global Footprint of Chinese Banks”

The global footprint of Chinese banks is substantial and growing, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. While they are similar to other banks from emerging countries in terms of their ownership and asset structure, their global footprint often resembles that of banks from advanced countries. Geographical distance acts as a barrier for Chinese banks’ lending, comparable to that for the US or European banks. Also like their US peers, the lending of Chinese banks strongly correlates with trade. Some differences are present, such as an atypical negative correlation between bank lending and portfolio investment.

United States

·       US State Department “Invited List for Upcoming Summit for Democracy”

On December 9-10, President Biden will host the first of two Summits for Democracy, bringing together leaders from government, civil society, and the private sector to renew democratic ideals and goals.  Of note, the President has invited Taiwan, much to the furor of China. 

·       Foreign Policy “The Beautiful, Dumb Dream of McDonald’s Peace Theory”

In the rich, lazy, and happy 1990’s, Americans imagined a world that could be just like them. One of the measures created to show this was Thomas Friedman’s “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention” – which hasn’t stood the test of time very well.

·       Pew Research “Where Do You Fit in the Political Typology?”

Are you a Faith and Flag Conservative? Progressive Left? Or somewhere in between?  Take Pew’s online quiz and find out where you actually are in today’s weird and wild political typology.

Russia

·       Carnegie Moscow Center “The Coming Deluge: Russia’s Looming Lost Decade of Unpaid Bills and Economic Stagnation”

Russia faces a litany of long-term economic challenges that will hobble its growth potential but likely won’t be severe enough to force far-reaching political change.

Singapore

·       RestofWorld.org “Singapore’s Tech-Utopia Dream is Turning into a Surveillance State Nightmare”

Singapore is one of the most technologically sophisticated places in the world – one of the safest.  Yet, according to this report, it is taking something of an Orwellian turn: The city is constantly watched by 90,000 police cameras, and by the end of the decade, there will be 200,000.  Sensors, including facial recognition cameras and crowd analytic systems, are positioned across the city.  More recently, the city has begun piloting a new kind of robot that “can automatically detect anti-social behavior, from smoking to illegal food stalls and gatherings, barking orders out of its speakers, recording video and reporting back to HQ.” 

Kenya

·       Institute for Security Studies “Sweet Deals for Kenya’s Sugar Smugglers”

High production costs and the mismanagement of factories have led to a drop in sugar production in Kenya over the past two decades, opening the door for smugglers – particularly from Somalia and potentially funding the terrorist organization, Al Shabaab. In 2020, sugar made up 48% of the goods smuggled into the country, according to the National Crime Research Centre.

Lebanon

·       Gallup Polls “Leaving Lebanon: Crisis Has Most People Looking for Exit”

Quality of life has deteriorated so much in Lebanon that most people -- a record-high 63% in 2021 -- say they would leave the country permanently if they could. Canada and Germany are the most desired destinations for this group: 28% would like to go to Canada, and 19% would like to move to Germany.