Does Iran Have A Treasury Market Strategy?

August 20, 2026

Markets understand there is a correlation between global oil prices and bonds. But the interesting question is: How well does the leadership in Tehran understand this and have they made it part of their overall strategy vs.the US? Or to put it another way, are they seeking to weaponize the Treasury markets? 

I think the answer is a simple “yes - very much so.” Iranian leadership have proven over the last five and half months that they are not only highly resilient but creative and cunning in their military strategies and tactics (just look at the use of drones/missiles on US facilities throughout the region, mines in the Strait of Hormuz, calibrated deployment of the Houthis in Yemen to threaten both the Gulf States but also threaten closure of the Red Sea, etc.). 

With that in mind, why wouldn’t they want to deploy every tool at their disposal to impact the global bond markets in general and US Treasuries in particular? Of course they would. They understand that by driving up oil prices Treasury’s would be impacted (especially if timed with other global market event/shifts such as big sell-offs of AI and semiconductor sectors). 

the US Treasury is responding today with the announcement of more buybacks to help calm the market. But the lesson is learned: Iran is willing and capable of doing a lot more than most analysts seem to understand to both defend themselves and attack the US.